SB Nation - Gilbert Moye

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

Bill C. — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:00:17 -0000

Image via The Trib's G.J. McCarthy

You may have noticed that, somewhere around 1pm yesterday, the title of yesterday's "Targets and Catches" post changed to "Targets and Catches (Part One)." That's because I figured out the next direction I wanted to take the concept of targets and couldn't wait to get started on it.

As discussed yesterday, the concept of targets (catches + incomplete passes intended for a given receiver) versus catches is a pretty good one, despite the likely flaws in the ways target data is collected (dropped/tipped passes that become interceptions don't have target data attached, not every scorekeeper probably records targets the same way, etc.). It allows us to look into a receiver's reliability in ways that simpler measures do not, and once national data is collected on this (offseason project #12,424), it might give us a way to measure a quarterback's performance independent of the quality of his receivers (hey Uribe Auction, here's how we get to Receiver Independent Passing Stats, or RIPS...I love it when a plan comes together).

But simply looking at a players Catch% (Catches per Target) does a disservice to those who are likely to run deeper, lower-percentage routes. How about we do this as well: create a Yards Per Target measure. Yards Per Catch is a good way to measure a receiver's explosiveness, and wouldn't the incorporation of target data create something that shows us both explosiveness and reliability? Let's try that.

Below are tables for 2006-09 giving us the following information:

Catches
Yards
Catch% (Catches divided by Targets)
Yards Per Target

2006

2006 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Chase Coffman	TE	58	638	65.2%	7.2
Martin Rucker	TE	53	511	77.9%	7.5
Will Franklin	WR	48	829	57.8%	10.0
Jared Perry	WR	37	429	67.3%	7.8
Brad Ekwerekwu	WR	32	430	64.0%	8.6
Tommy Saunders	WR	25	271	73.5%	8.0
Danario Alexander	WR	15	251	71.4%	12.0
Jason Ray	WR	6	50	40.0%	3.3
Tony Temple	RB	6	34	85.7%	4.9
Earl Goldsmith	RB	5	59	100.0%	11.8
Greg Bracey	WR	3	79	50.0%	13.2
Marcus Woods	RB	2	11	40.0%	2.2
Jimmy Jackson	RB	1	-2	50.0%	-1.0
Andrew Hoskins	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	291	3,590	66.0%	8.1

Here's where we start to see the value of Will Franklin. The 'Copta had an awful catch rate this season, but as we see here, a) he made up for it with his explosiveness, and b) being a deep threat means you're probably seeing more low-percentage passes. Meanwhile, tight ends running high-percentage routes will have good catch rates, but their Yards Per Target figures show that while it's good to have high-percentage targets, there isn't necessarily a lot of explosiveness there.

Two other interesting things to note:

1) Danario was very clearly showing his big-play potential early on. It really is a damn shame that he ended up having to fight so many injuries, but on the bright side, if he hadn't, he'd have almost certainly gone pro last year.

2) Clearly we should have been passing to Earl Goldsmith more often. Ahem.

2007

Image via the inestimable Bill Carter

2007 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Martin Rucker	TE	84	834	77.8%	7.7
Jeremy Maclin	WR	80	1,055	72.1%	9.5
Chase Coffman	TE	52	531	80.0%	8.2
Will Franklin	WR	49	709	64.5%	9.3
Tommy Saunders	WR	41	397	74.5%	7.2
Danario Alexander	WR	37	417	77.1%	8.7
Jared Perry	WR	13	152	65.0%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	10	70	71.4%	5.0
Jason Ray	WR	8	61	80.0%	6.1
Tony Temple	RB	7	68	77.8%	7.6
Jimmy Jackson	RB	6	30	100.0%	5.0
Earl Goldsmith	RB	4	20	66.7%	3.3
Greg Bracey	WR	3	53	33.3%	5.9
Blake May	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	394	4,397	73.2%	8.2

And here's where the numbers even out for Senor Goldsmith.

Even though his YPT dipped in 2007, Franklin was still a decent weapon here, averaging over 9.0 per target (which appears to be a pretty good number) and, as we must not forget, becoming one helluva downfield blocker for Maclin. In all, Chase Coffman was the most reliable target this season, but obviously the WRs were more dangerous, even though they didn't really thrust too many nunchuks.

(Non-RMN regulars just read and re-read that last sentence 5-6 times, then gave up on figuring it out what it meant. Here's the explanation.)

2008

Bill Carter again

2008 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Jeremy Maclin	WR	102	1,260	75.6%	9.3
Chase Coffman	TE	90	987	88.2%	9.7
Tommy Saunders	WR	72	833	78.3%	9.1
Jared Perry	WR	41	567	68.3%	9.5
Derrick Washington	RB	29	277	76.3%	7.3
Danario Alexander	WR	26	329	60.5%	7.7
Andrew Jones	TE	20	146	83.3%	6.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	9	98	69.2%	7.5
Earl Goldsmith	WR	5	58	83.3%	9.7
Michael Egnew	TE	4	22	50.0%	2.8
Jimmy Jackson	RB	3	26	75.0%	6.5
Wes Kemp	WR	1	15	50.0%	7.5
Jon Gissinger	TE	1	10	100.0%	10.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
Forrest Shock	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	403	4,628	76.0%	8.7

Here's where Chase Coffman became the best tight end we'll ever see. He was so reliable that throwing to him actually resulted in more yards per target than Jeremy Maclin, All-American. Here's also where Jared Perry, a.k.a. Will Franklin 2.0, began to show value. He was a reasonably reliable option his first couple of years (obviously targeted much more in 2006 than 2007, when Maclin emerged), but while he still couldn't hit 70% from a Catch% perspective, his big-play ability went up a notch, and he went from averaging 7-8 yards per target to over 9. Meanwhile, Jerrell Jackson registered with numbers very similar to Perry's freshman numbers, albeit on a small sample size.

2009

Yup, Bill Carter.

2009 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Danario Alexander	WR	107	1,644	73.8%	11.3
Jared Perry	WR	46	695	53.5%	8.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	37	458	60.7%	7.5
Wes Kemp	WR	23	335	52.3%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	23	99	69.7%	3.0
Andrew Jones	TE	7	39	58.3%	3.3
Rolandis Woodland	WR	4	23	66.7%	3.8
Michael Egnew	TE	3	25	60.0%	5.0
De'Vion Moore	RB	3	13	100.0%	4.3
Kendial Lawrence	RB	2	42	100.0%	21.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	2	19	66.7%	6.3
T.J. Moe	WR	2	8	40.0%	1.6
Gilbert Moye	RB	1	5	50.0%	2.5
TOTAL	ALL	260	3,405	63.9%	8.4

And here's where we find out just how amazing Danario Alexander has been this season (as if there were any doubt). Looking only at receivers who were targeted at least ten times in a given season, Alexander's 11.3 per-target average is topped only by ... 2006 Danario Alexander, who was targeted only 21 times. For ~~Domino Axelrod~~ Danario to be both this reliable and this explosive has just been amazing.

Here are the overall averages per position:

WR: 67.3% catch rate, 8.7 yards per target
TE: 77.2% catch rate, 8.2 yards per target
RB: 75.0% catch rate, 5.5 yards per target

So for the last four seasons, here are your top ten in terms of Yards Per Target (with a minimum of ten targets):

Danario Alexander (2006): 12.0 per target (on 21 targets)
Danario Alexander (2009): 11.3 (145)
Will Franklin (2006): 10.0 (83)
Chase Coffman (2008): 9.7 (102)
Jeremy Maclin (2007): 9.5 (111)
Jared Perry (2008): 9.5 (60)
Jeremy Maclin (2008): 9.3 (135)
Will Franklin (2007): 9.3 (76)
Tommy Saunders (2008): 9.1 (92)
Danario Alexander (2007): 8.7 (48)

Will Franklin, you are absolved.

Danario Alexander, you officially have a case for having been the best receiver in Mizzou history.

Targets and Catches (Part One)

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

One of the measures I am looking to track more in-depth in the future, in terms of my play-by-play data, is the notion of catches versus targets. In the play-by-play data exists a line that I have yet allowed to go unrecorded: "Pass incomplete to _____." Obviously I record that the pass is incomplete, but I have not really paid attention to who the pass was intended for. It's a rather objective measure -- does everybody record who a pass was intended for the same way? If the QB is throwing the ball away and it goes 20 feet over a certain receiver's head, does it count as an incompletion "to" that receiver? Does every score-keeper even keep track of this? Plus, if a ball is tipped by a receiver and intercepted (e.g. Jerrell Jackson in the Oklahoma State game), the "intended for" bit isn't recorded. Clearly this is a piece of data that is rather inconsistent.

That said, this is also one of those measures where you figure that the inconsistencies balance out over time. Even if it doesn't paint a perfect picture, it probably tells an interesting story. Therefore, let's take a look at how our view of a receiver's (or quarterback's) performance changes when adding in "intended for" data.

The categories below are:

Catches: receptions
Targets: receptions + incomplete passes intended for that receiver (as recorded in the play-by-play data). In general, you can think of those incomplete passes as either being a) dropped or b) too well-covered to be completed. If your QB is accurate, you will obviously catch more of your targeted passes, but if you struggle to get open and clear space from the guy covering you, a lot more of your targeted passes are going to fall incomplete.
Catch%: the percentage of "targets" a receiver catches
Target%: the percentage of a team's overall targets aimed at a specific receiver

Without further ado, let's take a look at the last four years of Mizzou "target" data and see what it tells us.

2006

Image via Phoebe Sexton / Columbia Missourian

2006 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Chase Coffman	58	89	65.2%	20.2%
Will Franklin	48	83	57.8%	18.8%
Martin Rucker	53	68	77.9%	15.4%
Jared Perry	37	55	67.3%	12.5%
Brad Ekwerekwu	32	50	64.0%	11.3%
Tommy Saunders	25	34	73.5%	7.7%
Danario Alexander	15	21	71.4%	4.8%
Jason Ray	6	15	40.0%	3.4%
Tony Temple	6	7	85.7%	1.6%
Greg Bracey	3	6	50.0%	1.4%
Marcus Woods	2	5	40.0%	1.1%
Earl Goldsmith	5	5	100.0%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
Andrew Hoskins	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	291	441	66.0%	100.0%

WRs: 60.1% of targets
TEs: 35.6%
RBs: 4.3%

Before looking at ensuing seasons, it is hard to get a grasp on what these numbers actually mean, but a couple of things should stick out pretty quickly. First, thanks to a midseason bout with the dropsies, Chase Coffman's numbers were only decent, not great. Martin Rucker was a rather automatic target at TE, but Coffman wasn't amazing. Meanwhile, if your #1 WR is only catching 58% of the passes thrown at him, that is going to do a number on your completion percentage.

Anyway, before we try to interpret this too much, let's take a look at how 2007 unfolded.

2007

Image via ESPN.com

2007 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	80	111	72.1%	20.6%
Martin Rucker	84	108	77.8%	20.1%
Will Franklin	49	76	64.5%	14.1%
Chase Coffman	52	65	80.0%	12.1%
Tommy Saunders	41	55	74.5%	10.2%
Danario Alexander	37	48	77.1%	8.9%
Jared Perry	13	20	65.0%	3.7%
Derrick Washington	10	14	71.4%	2.6%
Jason Ray	8	10	80.0%	1.9%
Greg Bracey	3	9	33.3%	1.7%
Tony Temple	7	9	77.8%	1.7%
Earl Goldsmith	4	6	66.7%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	6	6	100.0%	1.1%
Blake May	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	394	538	73.2%	100.0%

WRs: 63.9% of targets
TEs: 32.2%
RBs: 3.9%

Despite a deep, experienced cast of receivers (Rucker and Franklin were seniors, Coffman and Saunders were juniors), Jeremy Maclin came out of nowhere to become Chase Daniel's most trusted receiver. His 72% Catch% was much higher than Will Franklin's 58% from the season before. Meanwhile, MotherRucker stayed right around 78% while Chase Coffman improved dramatically, from 65% to 80%. Franklin did improve to 65%, but he was still a far less reliable target than others around him. Of course, he obviously ran deeper routes than guys like Coffman, Rucker or Saunders, so that might have something to do with it. Then again, were his routes any different than those of Maclin? Maclin still outshone him in that regard.

With Maclin and an extra year of experience for Chase Daniel, the overall Catch% rose from 66% to 73% in 2007. This, of course, tells us nothing about how many passes Daniel chose to throw away (which would just go in the play-by-play as "pass incomplete" with no "intended for" information), but it does show that Daniel was completing one more pass for roughly every 14 catchable balls in 2007, and that could make a difference of 2-3 completions per game.

2008

Image via Chris Lee / Post-Dispatch

2008 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	102	135	75.6%	25.5%
Chase Coffman	90	102	88.2%	19.2%
Tommy Saunders	72	92	78.3%	17.4%
Jared Perry	41	60	68.3%	11.3%
Danario Alexander	26	43	60.5%	8.1%
Derrick Washington	29	38	76.3%	7.2%
Andrew Jones	20	24	83.3%	4.5%
Jerrell Jackson	9	13	69.2%	2.5%
Michael Egnew	4	8	50.0%	1.5%
Earl Goldsmith	5	6	83.3%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	3	4	75.0%	0.8%
Wes Kemp	1	2	50.0%	0.4%
Jon Gissinger	1	1	100.0%	0.2%
Brandon Gerau	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
Forrest Shock	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	403	530	76.0%	100.0%

WRs: 66.6% of targets
TEs: 25.5%
RBs: 7.9%

In 2008, Missouri lost Martin Rucker and his 78% catch rate but still improved as a team, from 73% to 76%. Danario Alexander aside (this was the year he was recovering from knee injuries and was clearly not as confident/aggressive a receiver), just about everybody showed improvement. Coffman improved to a sickening 88% (that means that eight of every nine balls that were thrown at him and were even remotely catchable, were caught...yeah, he deserved the Mackey Award), Saunders improved to 78%, which is the highest you'll see from a highly-targeted receiver, and even Maclin improved to 76%. Having a ton of reps with the same quarterback helped a ton, I'm sure, as did the fact that said quarterback (Daniel) was as automatic as a computer in his reads, especially over the first half of the season.

So what happens when you lose your quarterback and your top three targets? As shocking as it may sound, your numbers go down!

2009

Image via the one, the only Bill Carter

2009 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Danario Alexander	107	145	73.8%	35.6%
Jared Perry	46	86	53.5%	21.1%
Jerrell Jackson	37	61	60.7%	15.0%
Wes Kemp	23	44	52.3%	10.8%
Derrick Washington	23	33	69.7%	8.1%
Andrew Jones	7	12	58.3%	2.9%
Rolandis Woodland	4	6	66.7%	1.5%
Michael Egnew	3	5	60.0%	1.2%
T.J. Moe	2	5	40.0%	1.2%
De'Vion Moore	3	3	100.0%	0.7%
Brandon Gerau	2	3	66.7%	0.7%
Kendial Lawrence	2	2	100.0%	0.5%
Gilbert Moye	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
TOTAL	260	407	63.9%	100.0%

WRs: 86.0% of targets
TEs: 4.2%
RBs: 9.8%

So here's where I start to get encouraged about Blaine Gabbert's prospects moving forward. With a relatively similar cast of characters in the receiving corps (Alexander was clearly better than any receiver in 2006, but Gabbert was without anyone nearing the reliability of Rucker, so they cancel out) and the propensity for throwing many more deep balls than Daniel, the Catch% for Gabbert's sophomore season was almost identical to Daniel's.

Now, unless one of our redshirting freshmen is suddenly capable of pulling a Jeremy Maclin impersonation (doubtful, to say the very least), Gabbert will head into 2010 without his top two targets, which is obviously something Daniel didn't have to worry about heading into 2007. However, while losing Alexander is a huge concern, losing Perry simply might not be too big a deal. Jackson has done a lovely Perry impersonation in recent weeks, and besides, Perry's 54% catch rate is simply horrendous. We know that Perry had a decent amount of bad luck this season -- how many times did Gabbert throw too high for him in the Oklahoma State game? -- but 54% is too low to blame simply on bad luck. Over four seasons, Perry never topped 70%, and while Jackson's 61% is nothing impressive, it is still better than what Perry managed this season. With another year (at least) of getting used to catching Gabbert's fastballs (and another year of Gabbert learning to keep the ball down as much as possible), I would expect Jackson's catch rate to be closer to the 65-70% range next year.

However, is that good enough? Gabbert can be expected to improve a decent amount next year, but ... who becomes the #1 target? And if it's Jackson, can Mizzou succeed at a high level with a #1 WR target catching only 65-70%, especially when there is suddenly no ultra-reliable tight end option to fall back on in times where a completion absolutely must be made?

Speaking of the tight end position, I guess this is the year in which we officially learned that WRs and TEs are basically exactly the same in this system. Alexander's Target% of 35% this year was 10% higher than Maclin ever managed and came within 10% of matching that of Maclin and Coffman from 2008. Lining up in the tight end slot position quite often, Alexander was actually able to approximately compensate for the loss of both players this year and catch passes at a very high rate for a receiver. Meanwhile, thanks to Alexander being a WR, tight ends accounted for only 4% of targets this year, and that's only if you count Michael Egnew as a tight end. The position disappeared from Mizzou's repertoire, but the passing numbers stayed relatively successful thanks to Alexander. With Alexander gone in 2010, do we see guys like Andrew Jones or Egnew working their way back into Gabbert's sights, or will another big receiver like Wes Kemp move into that role?

I have a lot more questions here than answers, but answers weren't the purpose of this exercise. I wanted to see if target data was viable and interesting, and while I found it both of those things, I'm curious what you think.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Mizzou Links, 9-21-09

Bill C. — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 10:43:47 -0000

Furman Wrap-Up Links!

Dave Matter: Emptying the Notebook
It's going to be interesting to see how the coaches divvy up the carries once De'Vion Moore comes back from his ankle sprain, which Pinkel said should happen Friday at Nevada. Kendial Lawrence has demonstrated that he's capable of blasting through holes and picking up yards beyond the first level of the defense. In the last two weeks, he's averaged 7.4 yards per carry, compared to 4.3 for starter Derrick Washington.Washington grinded out 120 valuable yards against Bowling Green but struggled finding running room against Furman. Last Monday, Washington told me his footwork was out of whack in the opener against Illinois and that he cleaned it up and hit the hole harder against Bowling Green. But Saturday looked much like the opener.
There are times when some of MU's running plays develop slowly and get bottled up near the line, but that doesn't seem to happen when Lawrence is carrying the ball. And, yes, some of his runs came against Furman's defense in the second half, but he was also running behind MU's backup offensive linemen. However the staff decides to split the playing time, they've got a nice situation with a versatile veteran like Washington and two young speedsters like Moore and Lawrence. Even Gilbert Moye showed some promise with his first career carries on Saturday, averaging almost 6 yards on his six carries.

Also be sure to take a look at the Smith vs Daniel vs Gabbert stat-check at the end.
KOMU.com: Ironman Alexander
Post-Dispatch: Blaine Gabbert makes progress while he continues to learn
The Missourian: Playing time for young defenders improves depth for season

Nevada Links!

Reno Gazette-Journal: Biggest issue so far in 2009 is Kaepernick's inconsistencies
The player who was a world beater -- remember when as a redshirt freshman he combined for 627 passing yards, 233 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in his first two games in 2007? -- is just not himself right now.

Part of it is his protection. The timing of the passing game has been off because of breakdowns in pass protection and a lot of blitzing in the Pack's first two games. Nevada did a much better job in pass protection last year than it has so far in 2009.

But he also is, as coach Chris Ault put it, out of sync, as was evident by his two poorly thrown interceptions. He has four interceptions and one TD passs this season (one pick came on a Hail Mary on the final first-half play at Notre Dame).

"He was just inconsistent all day," Ault said. "... There's no question about it. I'm real concerned about Kaepernick's play today."
Reno Gazette-Journal: Colorado St. beats Nevada, 35-20
Reno Gazette-Journal: Nevada's Monday Review
Offense -- F
Not only was it ineffectual, it contributed to spoiling a solid effort by the defense.

Defense -- C

It was actually pretty good given where it's been, but three big TD plays through three quarters were costly.

Special teams -- B-
A missed extra point (bad hold/snap) hurt, but kickoff return showed very good signs; two of three punts were inside the 20.

Big 12 Links!

Big12Sports.com: A Look Back at Week Three
Crimson and Cream Machine: The Obligatory "We're Still In It" Article
Tulsa World: It's too early for Sooner title talk
Bring On the Cats: Postgame Reaction: K-State vs UCLA
[I]t doesn't appear we're going to get the help we'd hoped for. Missouri is much better than expected, while KU has looked solid in wins over cupcakes. Nebraska was one boneheaded play from winning in Blacksburg yesterday. Texas A&M is probably better than last season, and Texas Tech hasn't fallen off much. Even with the loss of Sam Bradford, nobody can score enough points to take advantage of OU. Even Iowa State appears to be a more game opponent than last season, and Colorado picked up its first win of the season yesterday.
Daily Oklahoman: OSU run game must improve
Daily Oklahoman: O-line holding Oklahoma State back
Burnt Orange Nation: Bevo's Daily Roundup - September 21

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:00:54 -0000

An easy win doesn't always bring with it an interesting box score, but there are many interesting things to talk about from Mizzou's Braggin' Rights (yeah, that's what I called it) win...

Mizzou (37)		Illinois (9)
	% Close = 56.3%
42.2%	Field Position %	34.7%
71.8%	Leverage %	72.2%

	TOTAL
71	Plays	72
28.7	EqPts	16.4
40.9%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.40	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.812	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.673

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
47	Plays	34
16.6	EqPts	6.8
42.6%	Success Rate	44.1%
0.35	PPP	0.20
0.778	S&P	0.640

	RUSHING
7.7	EqPts	6.7
40.0%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.11	PPP	0.16
0.507	S&P	0.558
2.36	Line Yards/carry	2.47

	PASSING
20.9	EqPts	9.7
44.4%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.53	PPP	0.26
0.980	S&P	0.757
4.4%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
7.1%	PD Sack Rate	17.7%

	STANDARD DOWNS
43.1%	Success Rate	51.9%
0.39	PPP	0.25
0.821	S&P	0.774

	PASSING DOWNS
35.0%	Success Rate	25.0%
0.44	PPP	0.16
0.791	S&P	0.408

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	2
0.00	Turnover Pts	8.66
+8.66	Turnover Pts Margin	-8.66

0.890	Q1 S&P	0.833
0.466	Q2 S&P	0.468
1.215	Q3 S&P	0.881
0.825	Q4 S&P	0.742

0.869	1st Down S&P	0.760
0.607	2nd Down S&P	0.711
0.939	3rd Down S&P	0.546

+21.0	Projected Pt. Margin	-21.0
+28	Actual Pt. Margin	-28

As a refresher...

Field Position % = the percentage of plays you ran in the other team's field position. The higher, the better.
Leverage % = the percentage of plays you ran that were Standard Downs instead of Passing Downs. The lower the %, the more tough situations you were in.
SD Sack Rate and PD Sack Rate = Standard Downs Sack Rate and Passing Downs Sack Rate. PD Sack Rate will usually be higher. I average the two together for an "Adjusted Sack Rate" figure you see from time to time.
Projected Pt. Margin = Adding together EqPts and Turnover Pts Margin, you can get an idea for how the game should have unfolded. For instance, in this game Mizzou outgained Illinois by 12.3 EqPts and held an 8.7-point Turnover Points Margin, leading to a projected +21.0 pt. margin.

Thoughts and more after the jump...

Reactions

With similar Leverage %, Mizzou turned the game, in part, by winning the field position battle. They moved the ball a bit more and punted wonderfully, and those were the main causes. Illinois faced longer fields (after the first quarter, anyway), and Mizzou capitalized.
We'll get into this more below, but the 0.20 PPP that Illinois averaged while the game was close is staggeringly low. They absolutely missed Benn, probably more than we even assume, but Missouri's "keep everything in front of you and make Juice throw passes he's not comfortable throwing" strategy worked perfectly. And with the push the defensive line got, I'm not sure having Daniel Dufrene would have helped at all in the running game. They had room to run outside a couple of times, but that's about it.
Neither team ran the ball worth a damn. We'll come back to this one too.
Jamming the run on Standard Downs + Nailing the QB on Passing Downs = win. If the Mizzou defense can do these things this well all season, look out. Again, this all comes with the "As far as we know, Illinois really might not be very good" qualifier, but it was still a lovely defensive performance.
This game was won on Passing Downs. Mizzou was solid but not amazing, while Illinois never did a damn thing.

The main causes of the 7-point deviation between the projected point margin and actual margin: 1) Execution in the other team's territory. Illinois peed on themselves, while Mizzou always got at least a field goal out of their trips. 2) Special teams. Neither team did much in the return game, but Jake Harry's rugby kicks were perfect. I really do expect that style of punting to catch on even more this year--it's just so freaking effective if you're even remotely decent at it. Meanwhile, Grant Ressel kicked three big-time field goals (two from beyond 40 yards), while Illinois missed a PAT. Whoops.

Three Positives

It would really be disengenuous to start with anything other than Blaine Gabbert here, wouldn't it? With Illinois keying on the Mizzou run, particularly from the RBs (and shutting them down effectively), the game was on Gabbert's shoulders, and he was more than up for the task. He's the reason Mizzou would have won this game even if Illinois was completely healthy on offense. Illinois lost a ton--imagine losing Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore, and Danario Alexander, plus Jared Perry for a quarter or two?--but I can honestly say that with the way Gabbert played, Mizzou would have won with Kendial Lawrence, Gilbert Moye, Jerrell Jackson, Wes Kemp, etc., playing bigger roles.

The best part about Gabbert's performance is that, looking at the numbers, it looks pretty sustainable. The 0.980 Passing S&P was actually well below last year's season average of 1.082, and the 0.791 Passing Downs S&P was below last year's 0.828. Those numbers could actually improve as Gabbert gets his sea legs. Meanwhile, the Rushing S&P may have been unsustainably low. In other words, not only may the offensive performance have been relatively sustainable, but it could be expected to improve.
We took for granted how good Mizzou's rush defense was last year, but it was even better in Week One of this year. Against an average offensive line, Mizzou got a major up-the-middle push most of the time, with both Terrell Resonno and (especially) Dominique Hamilton playing very well next to Jaron Baston, but the ends were very good in pursuit to the sidelines. Aldon Smith in particular was outstanding in stringing plays to the outside and, in a couple of situations, making the tackle too. If it turns out that our defensive line is even better than last year's, then WOW does that open up the linebackers to wreak havoc both against the run and in pass coverage.
Blaine Gabbert and Juice Williams combined to complete eight passes for 19 yards or more. Gabbert completed seven of them. I previously expressed that I was concerned about the lack of big-play threats in the passing game, but Wes Kemp (receptions of 49 and 21 yards), Jared Perry (46, 28), and especially Danario Alexander (31, 29, and 19) went a very long way toward alleviating those concerns. Mizzou had big plays in every way possible: defensive breakdowns (Kemp's 49-yarder), great mid-range catch-and-runs (most of Danario's big catches), bubble screens with amazing blocking (Perry's 46-yarder), and just unbelievable throws from Gabbert (Perry's 28-yarder). It appears that Mizzou's receivers are just good enough that defenses will need to account for them more than Illinois did, and that will (in theory) re-open the running game.

Three Negatives

Gotta start with the running game. Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore combined for 22 carries on Saturday. Seven were successful. The 22 carries accounted for a total of 3.6 EqPts and an S&P of just 0.481. Ouch. Mizzou's S&P last year was 0.890, and while there's no doubt that Illinois' strategy was to attack the run and make Gabbert beat them (whoops), Mizzou still should have produced more than they did. The pass blocking was good after the first drive, so the offensive line wasn't completely disappointing, but both the run blocking (2.36 line yards per carry was atrocious for a team that averaged 3.16 last season) and the actual running (less dancing, please) need to get tightened up starting Saturday. And it will have to happen without De'Vion Moore, who is out with an apparently minor high ankle sprain.
This is nit-picking, but while Mizzou came with a big-time rush on Passing Downs, Juice Williams had all day to pass on Standard Downs. Now, part while Juice had plenty of time to throw, he didn't have any good targets to hit, so the lack of pressure wasn't detrimental, but you'd still like to see this improve a bit as the Lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter continues to come into its own.
I'm really reaching here, but I'm not really sure we're going to get anything from the return game this year. The kick return game has a little bit of potential, but Carl Gettis doesn't look particularly comfortable catching punts, and I think the main goal at PR this year is simply not fumbling.

Three Keys Revisited

From Thursday's preview, here were the keys to the game and how they unfolded on Saturday.

The Line

The battle of Mizzou's O-line vs the Illinois D-line was something of a wash, as Mizzou won the pass blocking battle while Illinois disrupted Mizzou's running game pretty well. The other battle, however, was completely in Mizzou's favor. Mizzou's defensive tackles repeatedly blew up the inside of the Illini's O-line, while their DE speed was also quite prevalent. Advantage: Mizzou.

The Bomb

As mentioned above, Mizzou won this battle going away, and probably would have even if Benn hadn't gotten hurt. Advantage: Mizzou.

The Turnover

The team with the new QB fumbles once and loses no turnovers. The team with "The Rodney Dangerfield of Quarterbacks*" loses two reasonably costly turnovers, one resulting in Mizzou taking over in field goal range, and the other costing them at least a field goal attempt in Mizzou territory. Advantage: Mizzou.

* I really feel kind of bad mocking Juice Williams. He seems, by all accounts, to be a really good kid and a good representative of the University of Illinois. But he's simply not the quarterback everybody has been saying he is for three years now, and it makes him a very easy target. And for Mark May to say that Juice doesn't get any respect is mind-boggling.

Summary

Not a lot more to say here. This was a great way to start the season, even if it turns out that Illinois isn't very good. Mizzou will get tested by Bowling Green's passing defense, and I welcome the challenge--clearly Mizzou will face plenty of good passing games this year, and it's good to be tested early. I look for the Mizzou offense to slowly improve as the season progresses, but the defense is still a bit of a mystery to me, and I want to see what they can do against the Clawfense.

Mizzou Links, 8-18-09

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:36:07 -0000

Mizzou Practice Reports!

Dave Matter: Monday Practice Report
Saturday's case of the drops led to Jared Perry, the Tigers' most experienced wide receiver, working mostly with the No. 2 offense. Perry still lined up No. 1 at the X-receiver position, but it was Jerrell Jackson who joined Danario Alexander and Wes Kemp with the No. 1 offense for the bulk of the snaps. Alexander appeared to move into Perry's X position while Jackson played the slot H position. Perry was not happy with the demotion, but even less happy with his recent play. "Mentally, I was a little defeated coming out to practice today because of the change," he told me. "But I just know I've got to work hard and make plays like I've been doing."
PowerMizzou: Monday Afternoon Practice Report
It really seems like Gabbert is developing quite a connection with Wes Kemp. In my opinion, Kemp has shown the most consistent hands throughout camp, and time and time again Gabbert is looking Kemp's way. Here's one stretch during 7-on-7 drills, for example:

- Gabbert checks down on his receivers, and hits Kemp for a seven-yard gain.
- Gabbert hits Kemp on a slant over the middle.
- Gabbert hits Kemp on an intermediate dig route for a 12-yard gain.
Dave Matter: BTS Video: Pinkel's morning media meeting
True freshman Justin Britt worked with the No. 2 offense at left tackle during 11-on-11 drills. ... Freshman receiver T.J. Moe (foot surgery) continues to wear a red pullover but participated in 11-on-11 drills, catching a few passes from Ashton Glaser, including a big pickup on a bubble screen.
Mutigers.com: Tigers return to gridiron
With the #1 offense and #1 defense going at it, highlights included a nice cutback run by TB Derrick Washington for a gain of 14 yards that took him just shy of the goalline. SS Hardy Ricks timed a short pass attempt perfectly, and nearly got an interception, but QB Blaine Gabbert came back with a short TD run of around 3 yards on a scramble. Sophomore TB Gilbert Moye also had a short TD plunge on the ground as practice came to a close…
KC Star: Tigers make some depth-chart moves in practice

Saturday Scrimmage highlights!

Mizzou 2009, Part Seven: Running Backs

Bill C. — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 20:00:20 -0000

Continuing with the "three burning questions" motif...

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #16 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Derrick Washington (6'0, 225, Jr.)
De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, So.)
Kendial Lawrence (5'9, 185, Fr.)
Gilbert Moye (6'2, 220, So.)

Let's continue with the 'three questions' theme:

What is Derrick Washington's ceiling? In the second game of the 2008 season, Washington tore his meniscus ("I got cysts in my calf. My calf swelled way up. I had to have it drained and everything. Then after the season we had a second MRI and it showed I had a torn meniscus.").

That means that for the year, he rushed for 130 yards in 19 carries when healthy (don't know when he actually got hurt against SEMO, so I'm not counting it), a healthy 6.8 yards per carry, and 906 yards in 158 carries (a still nice 5.7 per pop) when not. He also caught 29 passes for 277 yards (28 of the receptions came after Illinois). He accounted for 1,313 total yards and 19 TDs...and he was injured for 92% of the season. Wow.

So with that said, what can Derrick Washington accomplish if he's healthy for all 12-14 games? Part of that, really, will depend on Blaine Gabbert and the passing game. Mizzou has acknowledged that they will probably be leaning more on the running game this year with a green QB in the backfield, which could mean very good things for D-Wash. And we could take last year's final average of 5.9 yards per carry, add at least 0.2 or 0.3 yards if he had been healthy (he was all but worthless the last two games, managing just 73 yards in 25 carries, 2.8 per carry), and say that Washington could average in the low- to mid-6's this season. But if opponents don't respect the passing game and key on #24, then there's no way he averages that much. If the passing game is enough of a distraction (and let's face it--with this offense, opponents had to at least mind the pass even when Brad Smith was QB and Sean Coffey and Brad Ekwerekwu were the top receivers), then a good offensive line will open some holes, and Washington could have an absolutely monster year. And if Blaine Gabbert actually starts to thrive throwing the ball? Yikes.

More carries and more yards per carry? That's a nice combination. Speaking of which...
Everybody says Missouri will rush more in 2009...how much more? Missouri running backs carried the ball 284 times in 2008, an average of 20.3 per game. Even the addition of just one carry per quarter bumps that total up to 24.3 per game. Now consider this: Mizzou WRs saw 49 carries last year (3.5 per game), mostly due to Jeremy Maclin. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the motion reverse that accounted for most of Maclin's carries to stay in the playbook, but it would surprise me to see it used more than twice a game. So if the remaining carries go back to an RB, that bumps the total to 25.8 carries per game. (Of course, this assumes that Missouri runs as many plays, and they will need to convert plenty of first downs for that to happen...so once again it comes back, in part, to how effective Blaine Gabbert can be. Which is why the practice reports on Gabbert's progress have been so great to hear.)

Okay, so let's presume the new carries total is in the neighborhood of 26 per game. Last year, the starter (Washington) accounted for 177 of the carries, 62% of the RBs' total. Healthy, he may have accounted for more. Also, thanks to the multiple blowouts Mizzou managed, walk-ons Tyron Reece and Shawn Scott saw a handful of carries. But I think it's safe to say that a) with the amount of positive press De'Vion Moore has gotten this offseason, and b) with at least a couple of cupcakes still remaining on the schedule, the blowouts will continue in part, the backups (i.e. Moore) will still be trusted to get some touches, and Washington's percentage won't go up too much even if he's healthy. Let's say that the breakout is as follows:

Washington 62%
D. Moore 25%
Third-Stringer 10%
Fourth-Stringer & Walk-Ons 3%

Let's see...13 games x 26 carries = 338 carries. So...

Washington = 210 carries, 1300ish yards (at 6.2 per carry)
D. Moore = 85 carries, 485 yards (at 5.7 per carry, 0.1 higher than last year)
Third-Stringer = 34 carries, 170ish yards (at 5.0 per carry...who the hell knows)

Clearly those estimates are on the high side, but they represent nothing but incremental improvements off of last year's numbers. If (IF) the passing game isn't a liability, there's no reason to think this can't happen. And if the running game is producing like this, tell me why Missouri can't win a "seeming weaker by the day" North division. I'm waiting.
Can Gilbert Moye fend off Kendial Lawrence and score some playing time? It's not looking good. Lawrence, ghtd36's god, has has a bit of a problem with fumbles this week, but he's also apparently made at least one big play in every practice to date. Meanwhile, Moye has had the same fumble problems without many big plays (think I read that he made a nice catch a while back...that's about it). It's pretty apparent that Lawrence is playing this year, and if that's the case I really don't know what Moye's future holds. He is Gary Pinkel's most highly-rated Texas recruit to date, but it's seeming more and more like he's a good athlete without a position. Wasn't quite fast enough for safety (or, put another way, didn't have the speed to counteract his lack of natural safety instincts), isn't quite big enough for linebacker, can't hold onto the ball enough to play running back...what's left? Third-string QB (that's the position he played in high school)?

Mizzou Links, 8-12-09

Bill C. — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:54:54 -0000

Mizzou Practice Reports!

Dave Matter: Tuesday Practice Report
Facing the No. 1 defense, Blaine Gabbert looked like a seasoned veteran on a late series. With DE Aldon Smith breathing in his face and Sean Weatherspoon blitzing off the other edge, Gabbert calmly threw a strike to Jones down the left seam for a first down. Pretty cool under pressure.
Dave Matter: Tuesday Practice Report, Part II
Wide receiver T.J. Moe (foot surgery) sat out all drills again Tuesday afternoon, but only for precautionary reasons. With a double session scheduled for Tuesday, the training staff decided it was best for Moe to give his foot a full day's rest after five straight days of practice. He hasn't suffered any further damage to the original area.
PowerMizzou: Tuesday Practice Report
Really, really impressed with LDamian Washington so far. He's clearly the top freshman wideout through week one. Pete's going to have a story later in the week and I don't want to steal his thunder. However, one of Washington's best efforts today made him look like a defensive back. He went up high to get a hand on a pass from Ashton Glaser that saved what would have been a sure pick. Washington was also working in with the punt returners. A sign that the redshirt could come off? Too early to tell yet, but it's possible.
Mutigers.com: Tigers Take on Two-A-Days
PowerMizzou: August 11 practice photos

Today's videos: The Trib's Raw Video: Offensive Line, and PowerMizzou's PMTV: Two-a-days are here and PMTV: Tough up front.

Reaction: I'm getting more confident in Gabbert with each report, though I'm still not completely sold on the receiving corps. It sounds like Danario Alexander had a pretty bad morning practice with a large case of the dropsies. Everybody has a bad practice now and then, but hands have never been Alexander's (nor Wes Kemp's) biggest strength, so Gabbert will need to find at least a couple of reliable, sure-handed targets...at least one of which needs to be a WR. Is that Jerrell Jackson? Jared Perry? TJ Moe or L'Damian "Olive Oil" Washington (get it? because he's so skinny?)? Also: if we have such great depth at CB but Hardy Ricks is still starting at safety (no offense to him, but is he really one of our four best defensive backs?), at what point does somebody bring up potentially moving Carl Gettis (who is apparently to play safety in the nickel look) to safety and replacing him with either Kip Edwards, Trey Hobson, or I guess Munir Prince at CB? Not saying it should or will happen, but it's just kind of odd having great supposed depth at CB and not-so-much at safety.

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Offense

Bill C. — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:00:13 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. Gabbert is the probable replacement for the graduating Chase Daniel. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

Because this is the last time I get to review an actual Mizzou "game" (relatively speaking) for almost five months, I'm going to take advantage and write far too many words about Saturday's B&G Game. All typical disclaimers aside--this was only one scrimmage, it was just a scrimmage, it's only spring football, you can't glean much from "Mizzou vs Mizzou" situations, etc.--there was still a lot to watch and a lot of impressions to be made on Saturday, and today we'll take a look at what the offense did.

Quarterback

If I were grading QB performances from the Black & Gold game, I'd be tempted to give an Incomplete all the way around due to the injuries in the receiving corps. Because of injuries, the 1st-string WRs were really more like 2nd-string, 2nd more like 3rd, etc. Regardless, though, the performances were a bit shaky on Saturday. Dave Matter was quick to remind us that it couldn't have been any different the previous Saturday, when Blaine Gabbert owned the proceedings, using Jerrell Jackson and Wes Kemp to pick the D apart.

In all, what I saw in Gabbert on Saturday was a QB whose receivers dropped a couple of balls, who looked good on about 80% of his passes...and who could have had as many as three of his 17 tosses picked off. He trusted his arm to make a throw it couldn't make in telegraphing a pick to Kip Edwards, and on the next throw he got flustered and threw into double coverage, getting a ball tipped and almost picked by Del Howard. Later on, he threw a ball right into the chest of Dominique "Don't Throw It to Stone Hands" Hamilton, who had dropped back in coverage. It was an uneven performance in which we saw Gabbert make all the confused mistakes you'd expect a young, new starter to make.

That said, there's plenty to like, of course. First of all, the dude really does have a freaking cannon. Nevermind the "rolling left, fling it 55 yards" toss he uncorked in the first half--he really did seem pretty accurate on his short and medium-range throws, which was good to see. And he's got some wheels. He scrambled left for a long gain in the first half, and on the play he not only showed off legs but brains. He could have taken off a second earlier, but he waited for the D-linemen to commit to going for the sack for another beat, and it opened up the left side of the field big-time. Instead of having to run horizontally for a while to get out of the reach of the D-linemen, by waiting and relying on his agility to evade the rushers, he was able to move upfield pretty much immediately. He understands the pocket extremely well for his experience level, and that's a very good thing. Now he just needs to learn which throws to make and not make.

And of course, if not for the silly touch rules (seriously, can we at least make it 2-below or something?), he'd have had a pretty easy rushing TD in the redzone.

In all, I wasn't pleased to see him make the mistakes on the three passes, but I'm going to give him a lot of benefit of doubt considering a) his running skills will be even more pronounced when it doesn't take a fingertip to blow the play dead, b) he actually has his full arsenal of receiving targets available to him, and c) Derrick Washington is on the field for more than a handful of plays.

As far as the other QBs go, as Ross mentioned Saturday evening, Jimmy Costello didn't look good at all (of course, you try going up against the #1 defense with basically the 3rd-string WRs), and Blaine Dalton and Ashton Glaser both showed that their decision-making has a ways to go. That's why they came for the spring--they'll have a leg up on where they otherwise would have been come August. They both have some decent wheels, and I guess it wouldn't totally surprise me to see Dalton having his redshirt torn off to run a more Wildcat-formation style of package, just for a change of pace. But then again, Gabbert is probably as good a runner as Dalton, so maybe not.

Running Back

Derrick Washington barely saw the field, but I saw everything I needed from him. He's still as impressive to watch as he was early last year. He always falls forward, and he takes advantage of holes that just don't really seem to exist. He's going to make a great 1-2 punch with De'Vion Moore, who showed nice speed in getting to the outside. At the very least, Moore has developed into a strong Marcus Woods-style, change-of-pace back.

In our section of the stands, we were laughing about how we still run the same slow-developing handoffs as we always have, and it's easy to get annoyed or complain about that, but, well, D-Wash rushed for 1036 yards and 17 TDs on 5.9 yards per carry last year. If you execute correctly, it doesn't really matter that the plays are slow-developing.

As rptgwb put it during the game, Gilbert Moye running the ball looked exactly like what you'd expect a QB-turned-DB-turned-RB to look like running the ball. He doesn't look entirely comfortable out there yet, but to his credit, he made some things happen and showed the D-Wash-like ability of falling forward and creating space to run when you don't see any available. He's nowhere close to Washington and Moore just yet, but if one of them gets hurt (and Kendial Lawrence isn't immediately ready), he could do at least a competent job.

Also, Shawn Scott continued solidifying his place in the Black & Gold Game Hall of Fame with another couple of good runs. Barring injuries, he'll never see the field outside of garbage time, but he's always looked good in scrimmages.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

There's a lot to like about Jerrell Jackson, I'll say that much. In terms of style of play, think of him as Jeremy Maclin, but with only four gears. He looked wonderful on a reverse early in the scrimmage, but Hurricane Ebner was able to just barely get a grab of his shoelaces, and it slowed him down enough that he was eventually taken down. He also showed strong ability running routes and catching balls. Assuming Jared Perry and Danario Alexander are two starters, I have to figure that Jackson is the leader for the third starting spot.

That said, Wes Kemp is still going to have a chance to overtake either Jackson or maybe Perry when all is said and done. In terms of size and skillset, he is a unique target. He could be a favorite of Gabbert's on the dig route, which accounted for at least two of his three receptions. He is a Justin Gage-style receiver (which makes sense, considering the two may have been separated at birth), and I like what I saw out of him.

I was actually pretty disappointed in what I saw out of Rolandis Woodland. He dropped an out route on the first possession of the game, and really just didn't do much with the opportunities presented to him (i.e. getting reps with the 1st and 2nd string with so many guys out). People were very wishfully hoping that he could threaten for a starting job and maybe even overtake Danario Alexander as the team's best deep threat. Well, I didn't see or read anything this spring that made me think he'll be ranked any higher than the #6 WR when everybody is healthy.

Beyond that, there wasn't much to see. Brandon Gerau actually dropped a pass, which means it's a while before he gets another chance to earn Tommy Saunders-level "LOVE that kid!" status. Andrew Jones didn't do much, but I think I know what to expect out of him at this point. I really was disappointed in not getting to see Gahn McGaffie or Michael Egnew.

Oh yeah, and kudos to Jonnie Fields, this year's official Shawn Scott Award winner for most impressive performance by a walk-on. The sophomore from Gateway Tech led all receivers with 53 yards on four receptions. He won't see the field, but he seized his moment in the spotlight, and he deserves credit for that.

Offensive Line

All I can really say for the O-line is this: there weren't many sacks, and D-Wash and De'Vion had decent room to run. I spent a lot of time watching the DEs, and while they looked really quick and strong, they still didn't do much, which says something about the OL's performance, especially that of the tackles, Elvis Fisher and Dan Hoch. I still think this unit is the best OL in the Big 12 North, and if Mizzou makes a run at its third straight North title, the OL will be the main reason why.

Summary

With guys like Gabbert, Washington, D. Moore, Gregory/Barnes/Fisher/Hoch, J. Jackson, and Kemp, not to mention Jones/Egnew, and out-of-sight-and-mind guys like Alexander and Perry, this offense still has the talent to win the North. A lot of pressure, though, is going to lie on Washington, Moore, and the O-line. I still don't see a #1 WR on the team, and it's evident that Blaine Gabbert is going to make newbie mistakes, so David Yost is going to have to know he can lean on the running games at times to settle things down. With what we saw out of Washington and Moore, both on Saturday and in 2008, that's definitely a plausible option. But the B&G Game did confirm some concerns, and we'll see what happens when this unit faces a non-Mizzou unit for the first time. Color me neither scared nor insanely optimistic. Which, really, is a pretty good place to be.

Spring Football Update: Quarterbacks and Running Backs

Bill C. — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:00:12 -0000

The switch has been flipped from basketball to football, and I figure the best way to dip our toes back in the water is to revisit my 2009 Walkthrough series from January and see what has or hasn't changed since then. We start with QBs and RBs.

Quarterbacks

Photo from The Trib's Nick King

There's not much debate to this one. One nice thing Chase Daniel did for Mizzou fans at the tail end of his career was remind everybody that he is indeed human. Whoever wins the Gabbert/Costello/Dalton/Glaser race only has to replace a great quarterback, not a superhuman one, but the bar is still set extraordinarily high. This will make for fantastic intrigue this spring, as all four candidates seem to bring different strengths to the table, and needless to say, the upside involved here dwarfs the vaunted Dougherty/Farmer/Douglass/Propst* race of 1999.

(* This might not have been a race at all had Propst not broken his leg in 117 different places the spring before 1999. The coaches seemed to absolutely love that kid before the injury.)

What's Changed? Yeah, that whole thing about intrigue? Not so much. It's not that much of a surprise (71% of RMN readers figured he would win the job back in January), but it does appear that Blaine Gabbert has seized the reins for the '09 starting job and won't let go. While the true freshmen are predictably going through growing pains, Gabbert has simply been the best player in the green (or orange) jersey on just about every day.

In all, it seems that everything is playing according to stereotype. Gabbert is the 5-star recruit with the cannon arm who is still learning when and when not to trust his arm to make every throw in the book. Jimmy Costello is the scrappy walk-on with a decent arm and strong work ethic, scrapping for respect. Blaine Dalton and Ashton Glaser are the newbies, alternating between great plays and shaky ones. In that scenario, the 5-star stud wins the job just about every time.

The main question now becomes, does Jimmy Costello look good enough at #2 that the Mizzou staff considers redshirting both freshmen? Clearly that plan would be scrapped if Gabbert were to get injured, but it may be worth a try if Costello really is performing well enough to earn himself a scholarship.

UPDATE, 2:20pm: It appears that the new consensus emerging from Saturday's scrimmage is that Dalton is now #2 by a pretty healthy margin, so uhh...scratch that last paragraph, I guess.

Expected Spring Finish
1. Blaine Gabbert (So)
2. Jimmy Costello (So)
3. Blaine Dalton (Fr)
4. Ashton Glaser (Fr)

Running Backs

Photo from PowerMizzou's Dan Turner

The only departure from the Mizzou backfield is Jimmy Jackson, and while I loved #1 to death, it's not out of the realm of possibility that De'Vion Moore can match JJ's production. If that's the case, and if Derrick Washington is healthy and makes the typical improvement from his first year starting to his second, the Mizzou RB corps could be as strong as it's been under Gary Pinkel. And nothing settles down a young starting QB faster than a solid running game.

What's Changed? Well, first of all, we've had ourselves some personnel shuffling. Drew Temple is no longer with the team, apparently quitting for more playing time elsewhere. Meanwhile, failed defensive back and former 4-star recruit Gilbert Moye has moved from safety to running back and apparently feels liberated. He hasn't shown a ton in scrimmages just yet, but a) he's only been an RB for a month, and b) he still has more of an opportunity to contribute here than in the fourth-string defensive backfield.

What else has changed? Well, if you believe reports, De'Vion Moore has turned himself into quite the badass. Or at least badass in terms of a second-stringer. All the main beat writers have said that Moore is one of, if not the most improved player of the spring. He is the perfect complement for Derrick Washington if he can use his quickness and speed in a smart, patient way.

Meanwhile, that's about all we've learned thus far, as Washington's out for the spring after minor surgery and everybody has spent at least a little time in the red jerseys. That's led to walk-on Shawn Scott getting a few reps with the first string, and while that's always a fun story to follow, it doesn't mean Scott's going to be getting carries in the fall.

Expected Spring Finish
1. Derrick Washington (Jr)
2. De'Vion Moore (So)
3. Shawn Scott (Sr)
4. Gilbert Moye (So)

(You know what's fun? That only one of the eight players I just listed at QB and RB are seniors--and he's a walk-on. That's going to be an ongoing trend moving forward.)

SB Nation - Gilbert Moye

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Targets and Catches (Part One)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Mizzou Links, 9-21-09

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(37)

Illinois(9)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou Links, 8-18-09

Mizzou 2009, Part Seven: Running Backs

Running Backs

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou Links, 8-12-09

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Spring Football Update: Quarterbacks and Running Backs

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Mizzou
(37)

Illinois
(9)