SB Nation - Jimmy Costello

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Tuesday Buff Bites - Hawkins Press Conference the Talk of the Town

irish1611 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 03:41:20 -0000

Hawk: ‘I will be here a long time’ | All Things Colorado Sports

Stretching his opening remarks at Tuesday’s media luncheon to about 25 minutes, Colorado coach Dan Hawkins turned introspective and said he is "up to the task" to get the CU program headed in a winning direction. "I’m going to be here a long time," Hawkins said.

Former Buff Matt McChesney Interviewed by Joel Klatt and Nate Kreckman at 1510 am Mile High Sports
They are not happy, Klatt or McChesney

CU Buffs coach Dan Hawkins: 'I'm going to be here for a long time' - Boulder Daily Camera

Dan Hawkins has been defensive for most of this season about the state of his program and the results his team has produced on the field. He switched to offense today. In a 24-minute opening statement and 41-minute press conference at his weekly media luncheon, Hawkins sounded at times like a man trying to save his job, or, at least like a coach who is feeling the pressure to produce better results.

Hansen remains CU's starting QB - The Denver Post

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said Monday on the Big 12 football coaches teleconference that sophomore Tyler Hansen "is still the guy" at quarterback. Meanwhile, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel says quarterback Blaine Gabbert "tweaked" his sprained right ankle on Saturday against Texas but will start this week at Colorado. The Tigers will be without starting middle linebacker Luke Lambert, who separated his shoulder against Texas.

Gary Pinkel’s Big 12 teleconference

On the injury front, quarterback Blaine Gabbert will play, but will continue to be bothered by that sore ankle, but when you hear Pinkel talk about backup quarterbacks in the Big 12, you get the sense that Gabbert will be marched out there as long as he can walk. Obviously, even a Gabbert at 60%, 70%, whatever number you want to put on that, is better than Jimmy Costello at this point.

Brooks: Hawk Takes A Look Inside - CUBuffs.com

Also speaking at Tuesday’s press conference, Hansen said the team had a players’ only meeting on Monday, during which team leaders said the Buffs must realize they’re not only close, "We’re there . . . we have to start believing it. We have the talent. But we didn’t believe that at Kansas State. We have to have that mindset." Hansen said the Buffs "really want to beat Missouri" after being embarrassed by the Tigers for the past two seasons (55-10, 58-0).

New CU Buff Relphorde turning heads - Boulder Daily Camera

"He`s the one I expect the most out of and he knows that," said Bzdelik, who also plans to play his four true freshmen. "Marcus is from a great basketball area just outside the city of Chicago, so he grew up understanding passion and competitiveness and the game." Bzdelik, who also grew up in the Chicago area, believes Relphorde`s presence won`t allow teams to focus so much on Higgins, who led CU in scoring, rebounding, steals and minutes during an otherwise disappointing 9-22 campaign last year. "I can definitely take pressure off Cory," Relphorde said. "He does pretty much everything himself, and I can do a little bit of everything. Now we`ll both be doing a little bit of everything together. But it`s not just me, all of our guys have gotten better and all of us can take pressure off Cory."

Hawk Press Luncheon Transcript - CUBuffs.com

Coach Dan Hawkins sat down with the media Tuesday for the weekly press luncheon and discussed many things about the Buffs squad, the upcoming game with Missouri, the state of the program and much more.

News Tribune - Sports

"Nothing’s going to change around here — we’re going to keep doing the same things, because the program works," senior linebacker Sean Weatherspoon said, echoing Pinkel. "Guys have just got to get it together, and that’s pretty much it. Against Texas, we just didn’t go out there and execute the game plan."

Pinkel addresses Missouri's inability to maintain emotional stability against Texas - Columbia Missourian

He said there were a few plays where defensive players had a lack of communication Saturday and attributed the problem to a lack of emotional stability, an inability to stay focused and make sure of the play the team is running.

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

about 1 month ago: Texas wide receiver John Chiles, left, runs into the end zone past Missouri defenders Hardy Ricks (4) and Carl Gettis, right, after catching a 34-yard pass for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I was initially going to say I would crank through this post as quickly as possible and move on, in the name of Positivity Week. But BTBS posts are anything but quick. Let's pick off the scab and see what we can learn from this one.

	Texas (41)	Mizzou (7)
Close %	52.7%
Field Position %	47.4%	24.5%
Leverage %	75.0%	71.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	27.0	8.6
Close Success Rate	62.5%	39.3%
Close PPP	0.55	0.24
Close S&P	1.172	0.628

RUSHING
EqPts	9.2	4.1
Close Success Rate	66.7%	38.5%
Close PPP	0.32	0.19
Close S&P	0.982	0.570
Line Yards/carry	3.37	2.20

PASSING
EqPts	17.8	4.6
Close Success Rate	59.1%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.73	0.28
Close S&P	1.327	0.629
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.7% / 7.1%	0.0% / 20.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	54.4%	36.8%
PPP	0.32	0.14
S&P	0.864	0.512

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	36.8%	20.0%
PPP	0.46	0.21
S&P	0.831	0.412

TURNOVERS
Number	1	2
Turnover Pts	4.4	8.6
Turnover Pts Margin	+4.2	-4.2

Q1 S&P	1.260	0.356
Q2 S&P	1.053	0.739
Q3 S&P	0.506	0.074
Q4 S&P	0.503	0.597

1st Down S&P	0.969	0.539
2nd Down S&P	0.842	0.343
3rd Down S&P	0.651	0.590

Projected Pt. Margin	+22.6	-22.6
Actual Pt. Margin	+34	-34

Reactions

How good has Texas' defense been this season? Those putrid offensive numbers Missouri posted above were actually better than the average output against Texas. In Missouri's number of rushes and passes, the average opponent would have produced 5.2 EqPts and an S&P of 0.529. In other words, Missouri's offensive production in this game was better than average and actually caused their season offensive "+" numbers to rise. So, uhh, that's the good news I guess. The bad news? Those offensive numbers are still pretty god-awful. Not only that, but Blaine Gabbert had to be helped off the field once again. His ankle might be getting better overall, but it has no doubt experienced regressions each of the last two Saturdays. We can again debate whether he should be playing or not, but...he's playing. And I'm completely okay with that. Missouri's odds of beating Colorado are still probably better with a 75% healthy Gabbert than a 100% healthy Jimmy Costello.

Other thoughts after the jump.

I'm fascinated by Texas' offensive numbers. Texas' offense is clearly superior, in terms of both talent and experience, than Missouri's defense, and because of that, I rather expected them to get better with each progressive down. My working theory is that first downs are the "gameplan" down (it's a clean slate, and you can go with what you prepared in the gameplan), second downs are the "play-calling" down (you're reacting to how first down went and therefore at least partially straying from the gameplan), and third downs are the "playmakers" down (the best, most experienced teams are usually best on third downs). And yet Texas was actually far superior on first downs than second, and second than third. Either Texas' gameplan was infinitely better, or they just reacted to our own gameplan and picked it apart.
Props to Texas for being brutally efficient on defense. Missouri found a couple of things (namely, Kendial Lawrence and Danario Alexander) to worked offensively, but they patiently waited until Mizzou inevitably fell into a Passing Downs, then laid the hammer down quickly and ruthlessly.
Texas' running game did not produce any big runs to speak of, and it seemed like Missouri was, overall, defending the run rather well--3.0 yards per carry, only 131 rushing yards overall. However, when the game was still competitive/close, they were extremely efficient. They didn't break long gains, but they were almost always getting chunks of yards on first and second downs that led to extremely convertable third downs. Texas faced six third downs in the first half, and four of them were third-and-3 or less. Missouri made stops on both of the longer third-downs. This is the perfect example of why efficiency matters almost as much as explosiveness.

Three Positives

The front seven really did play rather well. They let Texas' running game execute a little too efficiently, without a doubt, but they showed a bit of fire, particularly Will Ebner (whose performance was quite amazing considering he had been under the knife less than two weeks earlier). For the game, Texas ran seven times on third-and-short (i.e. 3 or less). They gained more than four yards just once and four times gained two yards or less. Show that same fire against running games like Colorado's, Baylor's, Iowa State's and maybe K-State's, and you'll be putting yourself in position to win, and win easily.
The running game has been below average each of the last two weeks. We can complain about the play-calling and the amount of running we did and did not do against Oklahoma State and Texas, but the fact is, the running game is improving, slowly but surely. Against potentially the best rushing defense in college football, Missouri's three running backs--Kendial Lawrence, Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore--combined for 101 yards on 24 carries, 4.2 per carry. World-beating numbers? No. But a vast improvement over what Missouri would have produced a couple of weeks ago. There are signs that both the Missouri offensive and defensive lines are improving right now, and that's a very good thing.
Nobody remaining on the schedule is as good as Texas or Oklahoma State. Just sayin'.

Three Negatives

Blaine Gabbert really didn't look any healthier than he did a week ago. Now, against Texas, a lot of quarterbacks are going to look slow and come up gimpy after being hit. But he still seemed to have no acceleration, and you could hear a groan fill the stadium when his first pass of the game went buzzing ten feet over Jared Perry's head. I believe Gary Pinkel when he says that Gabbert is indeed improving, but we're talking about pretty incremental improvement here.
Where those communication breakdowns an exception or regression? For the first six games of 2009, we saw not a single over-the-top communication breakdown between the cornerback and safety, and Missouri's lofty Defensive Passing S&P+ ratings were the reward for that. But for whatever reason, they happened in droves on Saturday. Most seemed to involve Kenji Jackson and Carl Gettis, and being that Jackson has been demoted and Gettis has not*, I think we see where the coaches think a majority of the blame lies. We expected big things out of Mr. Jackson this year, and it has not happened, but luckily both JUCO transfers--Jasper Simmons and Jerrell Harrison--have been better than advertised, and I feel comfortable with both of them back there.

Regardless of where the blame lies, the breakdowns caused all sorts of flashbacks to late-2008, and until we see these issues eliminated, consider us all sorts of paranoid.

* I DVR'd the game but obviously didn't watch one second of it before deleting (why in the hell would I do that??), but according to Mike Dearmond, the cameras caught a little verbal scuffle between Gettis and Dave Steckel on the sidelines. Being that Gettis is still in the starting lineup, I'm going to assume that this has as much to do with Steckel being a fiery guy and not minding a little bit of yelling back as much as anything. Between that and the fact that supposedly Gettis is still battling a bit of ankle trouble from the NU game (seriously, that was the most costly freaking game we've had in a while), however, it does paint a picture of Gettis being a less-than-100%-stable #1 DB. We'll see. Luckily CU doesn't have any big-time WRs.
41-7. Uhh, a lot went wrong, and while Missouri's schedule gets a lot easier now, that's still not the fight we hoped to see. If Missouri can play confident and improve over the next five games, they can win their third straight North title. If they regress and lose confidence, then 6-6 or 7-5 suddenly becomes this team's absolute ceiling. Saturday's game against Colorado is by far the biggest of the season for that very reason.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

The Bomb

Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

Bingo. As mentioned above, Jackson had a couple of key breakdowns (then again, is any one thing really "key" in a 34-point loss?), and as you see from the pic at the top of this post, Hardy Ricks wasn't exactly innocent either. Missouri's inability to defend the short or the long pass was the single biggest reason for the blowout loss...

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

...and if pass defense wasn't the biggest reason for the blowout, first down offense was. Ouch. Once again, bingo.

Texas 1st Downs: 0.969 S&P
Missouri 1st Downs: 0.593 S&P

End of story. Texas both game-planned and executed better than Missouri, and you win blowouts when that happens.

The Turnover

Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

All three of the game's turnovers took place when the game was well in-hand, so this was a non-factor*. I did think Missouri's front seven played just well enough that they forced Colt McCoy to make some tough touch passes downfield...and he nailed every single one of them. Between that and the easy sideline passes, McCoy's night was near-flawless both on paper and on the field turf.

* Then again, blocked punts and special teams miscues might as well be considered turnovers, and if Missouri had any shred of hope in this game, that hope died with the extremely predictable late-Q2 blocked punt touchdown.

Summary

Not much else to say here, is there? Texas was bigger, stronger, faster, and more well-coached, and they executed better. They brought their A-game, made a statement, etc. What can we glean from Missouri's performance? Not a whole lot. In terms of athleticism and coaching, Texas and Colorado are on different playing fields. (Power to Colorado for staying close to UT for a while a couple of weeks ago, but having seen both games, that Texas team was not this Texas team.) What Missouri must do from here on out is continue improving in the trenches and utilize what will be a demonstrable speed advantage over the next few opponents. If they do that, and if Blaine Gabbert can actually start moving closer and closer to healthy, then the season's main goal--another North title--is still within reach. But this is such a young team that we simply have no way of knowing how they will respond to this level of adversity. Hit Folsom Field with confidence, and Missouri will be 5-3 this time next week. Get stuck in neutral, and they've got themselves a dogfight. We'll see what happens.

The Morning After: How the Big 12 North Will Most Likely Play Out

Bill C. — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 16:57:50 -0000

This ankle: the North's biggest wildcard.

I've compiled some typical "Morning After" links, and I may eventually post them, but...who wants to read 17 different articles about how Mizzou got blown out last night? We know they got blown out, and we know why. So for now, we're instead going to go a different direction.

Yesterday, before the game started, here was the line I delivered to more than one person at our tailgate: "After tonight, we'll probably be 2.5 games behind Kansas State with five to go (KSU 3-1, MU 0-3), and I'll still be relatively optimistic about our North title chances. All week, really, we looked past the Texas game and aimed for the long-term goal of a mid-season turnaround as the schedule lightened up. Instead of just assuming Missouri will now turn things around, however, let's take a look at the giant mess that is the North division and how things will most likely play out over the coming weeks. My BTBS numbers will be ready sometime tomorrow, but this isn't about numbers or projections--these are just off-the-cuff observations.

After October 24

Big 12 North Standings
Team	Conf.	Overall
Kansas State	3-1	5-3
Iowa State	2-2	5-3
Kansas	1-2	5-2
Nebraska	1-2	4-3
Colorado	1-2	2-5
Missouri	0-3	4-3

Congrats to K-State, but the road's about to get rougher...maybe.

October 31

Games

Missouri at Colorado
Nebraska at Baylor
Iowa State at Texas A&M
Kansas at Texas Tech
Kansas State at Oklahoma

Entering next week's game in Boulder, Missouri fans will be pretty damn confident in a win...and Colorado fans will probably be pretty damn confident in a win. We are banking on a Missouri turnaround, but until it happens, we don't actually know it will happen, right? Without knowing what the numbers will say, I'm still going to bank on a Missouri win, but clearly confidence isn't at its highest right now.

Meanwhile, the schedule suddenly gets much tougher for K-State after beating three of the conference's four worst teams. I see no reason why OU won't blow KSU's doors off--Bill Snyder deserves all sorts of recognition for getting KSU to where they are, but...no.

Kansas and Iowa State both play completely schizophrenic teams. If KU catches the Tech defense that played against ATM last week, they could absolutely pull the road upset. Meanwhile, ISU is, you guessed it, a salty team, and we have no way to guess which ATM team will show up from week to week. That said, the most likely scenario in both games is a home win for the South team.

Then there's NU/Baylor. If Baylor had shown any pulse yesterday, I would absolutely be considering chalking this up as a Bears win, but they didn't. I think NU rolls.

Most Likely Standings
Team	Conf.	Overall
Kansas State	3-2	5-4
Nebraska	2-2	5-3
Iowa State	2-3	5-4
Kansas	1-3	5-3
Missouri	1-3	5-3
Colorado	1-3	2-6

So last place is 1.5 games behind first place. As with the ACC Atlantic, the overall quality may not be great, but it certainly is exciting!

November 7

Games

Kansas at Kansas State
Baylor at Missouri
Texas A&M at Colorado
Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Oklahoma at Nebraska

Four more North vs South battles highlight this week...and that's a very good thing for Missouri. They get Baylor while ISU and NU get OSU and OU, respectively. Those three games have pretty likely conclusions--MU, OSU, and OU wins. That leaves two complete tossups.

At the beginning of the season, it was pretty obvious that KSU likely wasn't going to be able to compete with Kansas this season. Honestly, I still think Kansas is a better team, though, and by this point in the season experience should start mattering quite a bit. I think KSU starts to show pretty decent-sized cracks, and KU pulls out a win here.

As for ATM/CU...again, how in the hell do you predict ATM games at this point? They completely blew up the transitive property by getting humiliated by K-State, then turning around and thumping the team that humiliated K-State! We're just going to close our eyes and assume the home team wins here--CU gets the nod.

Likely Standings
Team	Conf.	Overall
Kansas State	3-3	5-5
Kansas	2-3	6-3
Missouri	2-3	6-3
Nebraska	2-3	5-4
Colorado	2-3	3-6
Iowa State	2-4	5-5

Yeah, so with three weeks in the season, it is likely that first place will be a game ahead of last place, and all six North teams' fanbases will be openly (and rather realistically) rooting for a North title...sort of. This is looking a lot like 2005, where everybody in the division basically said "No no, you win the title...that's okay...I don't want it..." and Colorado drew the short straw and got embarrassed by Texas in the title game.

November 14

Games

Missouri at Kansas State
Colorado at Iowa State
Nebraska at Kansas

In the preseason, the only big game this weekend appeared to be NU-KU. Now? All three are pretty much equally huge. That's what happens when the last-place team could move to first in one week.

Here's where the analysis gets pretty shaky--we have no idea who might be hurt and who might be running hot or cold, but my (biased) gut says MU > KSU, ISU > CU, and KU > NU. I want to think that MU still has a significant enough athleticism advantage to win, especially if Blaine Gabbert is (gasp) actually healthy by this point, but I'm just going with the home team in the other two games because they are complete and total mysteries. These picks are made with almost no confidence whatsoever, but to complete this exercise, we're going with that.

Likely Standings
Team	Conf.	Overall
Kansas	3-3	7-3
Missouri	3-3	7-3
Iowa State	3-4	6-5
Kansas State	3-4	5-6
Nebraska	2-4	5-5
Colorado	2-4	3-7

And with two weeks to go, first place is STILL only a game ahead of last place. If these three games all go the other way (which, let's face it, is quite possible), then K-State leads at 4-3, with NU and CU at 3-3, KU and MU at 2-4, and ISU at 2-5. That would more openly define the possible division winners and losers--ISU would be out, and KU and MU would be all but out. Huge week for all teams involved here. And if ISU's going to qualify for a bowl, this is the week they will probably do it.

November 21

Games

Iowa State at Missouri
Kansas State at Nebraska
Kansas at Texas
Colorado at Oklahoma State

Here's where the home teams could pretty well establish themselves. This is much less of a tossup week than November 14--MU should win, KU and CU should lose, and NU should win...though they should have won yesterday too. KSU-NU is the closest tossup here.

(And have you noticed something? This is three straight weeks where KSU is involved in a tossup. I don't have a lot of faith in them overall, but they really could run away with this thing if they're better than I think.)

Likely Standings
Team	Conf.	Overall
Missouri	4-3	8-3
Kansas	3-4	7-4
Nebraska	3-4	6-5
Iowa State	3-5	6-6
Kansas State	3-5	5-7
Colorado	2-5	3-8

So Kansas State probably comes up short, going 0-3 in deciding games against KU, MU, and Nebraska...but all three of those predictions are shaky. If they win any of those three and get to the clubhouse at 4-4, look out. (It's also worth noting that a 4-4/6-6 K-State game would not be bowl-eligible because they have two 1-AA wins, and only one can count toward eligibility. That means that the North champion technically might not be bowl-eligible. Yeah.)

November 27/28

Games

Nebraska at Colorado
Kansas vs Missouri

So let's check the scenarios here:

CU > NU and MU > KU: MU wins at 5-3
CU > NU and KU > MU: KU and MU tie at 4-4, KU wins the North.
NU > CU and MU > KU: MU wins at 5-3
NU > CU and KU > MU: Three-way tie at 4-4. The round-robin record has KU 2-0, NU 1-1, and MU 0-2. KU wins the North.

In other words, the MU-KU winner wins the North, and NU-CU doesn't matter. The MU-KU winner is sacrificed at the Texas alter, and no matter what, MU, KU and NU are the three bowl-eligible teams. So that means I don't actually have to make any predictions! Nice.

The Wildcards

With at least one of the November 27/28 scenarios above, the North champion is 4-4. That means that it's not out of the realm of possibility that any of the six North teams could win, depending on what kind of tie there is at 4-4 and who wins tie-breakers. The predictions I made above were just to allow the scenario to play out as much as anything, so don't take them too seriously. Technically anybody has a chance to win this thing, so with that in mind, let's take a look at the biggest wildcard for each of the North teams--what is their biggest key to winning the division.

Colorado

In the above scenario, they could beat Nebraska to get to 3-5, meaning they need to find one more win for 4-4. With their game at Oklahoma State a likely loss, that means they basically need to go 2-2 versus NU, MU, @ISU, and ATM. Absolutely doable. You know how I feel about Colorado as a whole--they stink--but at this stage I freely acknowledge how wrong I could be. Nothing has played out as expected this year, and if they figure out how to take a step forward and, even if they lose in Ames, go 2-1 at home against three beatable teams (NU, MU, ATM), they could somehow win the North.

I say the biggest wildcard for Colorado is their defensive line. Leaving the ATM game aside (because I have no idea how to predict that game), the key to beating both Missouri and Nebraska will be not allowing their running games to get going and getting pressure on their respective QBs. I do think NU has the best defense in the North and MU the second-best (I still say Mizzou's front seven played damn well yesterday, but they got no help from the secondary or offense), and CU's iffy (to put it kindly) offense can't be expected to put up many points. That means they have to win a low-scoring battle, and both of these offenses can be stopped...if their offensive lines can't get established. The CU D-line is by far the least proven unit on their defense, and if they step up, they could win the North.

Iowa State

The above scenario places ISU at 3-5, meaning they need to scrounge up another win to have a chance. The most likely candidates for that win are @ATM or Colorado. What these two teams have in common is...well, basically nothing. ATM is much better on offense than defense, and Colorado is, if anything, the opposite. ISU won yesterday without their starting quarterback or running back, and they did it with defense and turnovers (and luck...plenty of luck). Honestly, it took every bit of eight turnovers (including a couple that ISU really had no hand in causing whatsoever...they just sort of happened) to win at Lincoln, and I'm thinking ISU's chances will hinge mostly on turnovers and special teams. The little things.

ISU's simply not as fast or talented as some other teams in the division, but they're salty, and they've already won a game because of turnovers (NU) and lost a game because of special teams (KSU...remember, they're a blocked PAT from potentially beating KSU in OT and leading the division outright). If they win the North, it's going to be because they hung around, played fundamentally sound, kept games close, and pulled out wins late.

Kansas

Again, I have to ask: if Mark Mangino's Kansas experienced, "Reesing and best WRs ever" squad finishes below Gary Pinkel's "25-30 freshmen and sophomores on the two-deep and a one-legged QB" squad, is he still going to be viewed as a better coach? We both know the answer is "probably," simply because it seemingly takes years to change ingrained storylines.

That said, as October turns to November, experience could make the difference in the North, and KU has more of it than anybody else. Because of everybody else's struggles, they could still win the North despite going 0-3 versus the South AND handing Colorado a win in Boulder. But the key to doing so has to be a defense that certainly improved in giving up only 337 yards to Oklahoma but has still given up above-season-average outputs to Iowa State (512 yards!), Colorado (322), Southern Miss (395, technically slight below their season average, but a BCS team should be giving up significantly less), and Duke (394). We knew the Kansas front seven might struggle here and there, but the secondary was supposed to be a lot better than it is, and to me, that starts with Darrell Stuckey. He's certainly been decent this year--47.5 tackles, 1 FF, 1 INT, 2.5 TFL--but he hasn't met the bar he set with his play down the stretch. This defense needs leadership, and if the D improves, the O is certainly good enough to win the North, even with Todd Reesing having had a piss poor couple of weeks.

Kansas State

Kansas State has won three conference games--one with decent offense and a blocked PAT (ISU), one with an unstoppable offense (ATM), and one with a dominant defense (CU). That either means they're a) well-rounded or b) inconsistent and getting kind of lucky. With the fact that a) they're +8 in turnovers during their wins, recovering 9 of 13 fumbles, and b) their one loss was a complete demolition at the hands of Texas Tech, in which they were outgained 739-284...well, you see where I'm going with this. If they win the turnover battle and get a lead, their running game is good enough to shorten the game and sneak out with a win, but they're simply not good enough to just line up and beat teams like KU, MU and NU without some breaks. Therefore, we're going with the same wildcard as with Iowa State--turnovers and special teams. They'll need some breaks, but there's nothing saying they won't get those breaks.

Missouri

Blaine Gabbert's ankle. To me, this is potentially the most obvious and impactful of all the wildcards. Now's another good time to bring up this:

Blaine Gabbert Pre-Injury: 92-for-139 (66.2%), 1,192 yards (8.6 per pass), 11 TD, 0 INT
Blaine Gabbert Post-Injury: 42-for-95 (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 2 TD, 5 INT

Naturally, the "Yeah, but the opposing defenses improved too" disclaimer applies, but honestly, for much of the remaining schedule the defenses more closely resemble those of Illinois and Nevada than Texas and Nebraska. A healthy Gabbert won't post a 66% completion rate and TD-INT ratio of infinity the rest of the way, but I think it's fair to say that at the very least, he could be expected to split the difference--55% completion rate or more, 7.0 yards per pass or above, 2-1 TD-INT ratio or higher. If Gary Pinkel is correct, and Gabbert didn't get further injured yesterday, then he should be at least at 80% healthy by next weekend. That is the key. If Gabbert is able to do what he does--throw accurate mid-range passes, scramble out of a collapsing pocket to at least sometimes produce something positive--then no defense left on the schedule is even remotely scary. And if Missouri can combine that with solid defensive play (hopefully yesterday's miscommunication in the secondary is not a harbinger of future struggle), then they can rather easily run the table and finish 5-3. If Gabbert continues to hobble and we either get a gimpy Gabbert or healthy Jimmy Costello, then 5-3 is technically still possible, but it becomes a major grind. I do still think that Missouri has the highest ceiling in this division, but between youth and Gabbert's ankle (it really is hard to imagine that Mizzou's not at least 1-2 right now with a healthy Gabbert, with at least a chance at 2-1), nothing has been or will be easy.

Nebraska

This one's pretty obvious too. If NU and ISU play ten times in Lincoln, NU probably wins at least 7-8 times. It took every bit of eight turnovers for NU to lose that game, and NU's simply not going to have any more -8 turnover differential games. That said, this still isn't a very good team. Their defense is only average outside of the defensive line, and their offense is one giant question mark. The wildcard, of course, is at quarterback. Zac Lee made three nice passes all game against Missouri, but with Mizzou struggling on offense, it was enough. Against Tech and Iowa State, when they needed to make a play, they were completely incapable of doing so with either Lee or Cody Green at QB. I think we all expect Green to win the job at some point, but let's not pretend that he's an obvious difference-maker. If he were, then Lee wouldn't have played against ISU. Whoever the QB is, it is clear that the running game and defensive line are not good enough to automatically beat KSU at home, much less win at Baylor, Kansas or Colorado. With a likely loss to OU on the horizon (though with as crazy as this season has been, an upset wouldn't surprise me), NU will need to win all four of the other games to get to 5-3 and three of four to finish 4-4. They're certainly talented enough to do that, but a quarterback will need to make a play, and it's pretty clear that Lee's fourth-quarter against Missouri was the exception, not the rule. With good QB play, NU probably wins the North, but what is the likelihood of that? It's possible, but at this point it certainly isn't probable.

Summary

Let's look at the wildcards again:

Colorado: Defensive Line
Iowa State: Special Teams and Turnovers
Kansas: Darrell Stuckey and the Secondary
Kansas State: Special Teams and Turnovers
Missouri: Blaine Gabbert's Ankle
Nebraska: Quarterback play

Looking at the evidence on hand, I'd say that KU and MU have the best shots at the division, simply because their wildcards are a bit more in their control. Kansas did start to play better in the secondary against OU (albeit against Landry Jones and a still-only-okay receiving corps), and Blaine Gabbert's ankle will get better. The question for both teams is, how quickly will those things improve? Can Mizzou beat Colorado without a healthy Gabbert? Possibly. Can KU win at K-State if Stuckey and the DBs aren't playing well? Possibly.

So many teams control their own destiny in the North, and it really is anybody's race. Every fanbase has reason for hope. But if Missouri can get Gabbert rolling and generate some confidence, I still really like their chances...and I guess reassuring myself was half the reason for writing this post, huh? Isn't that the point of Positivity Week?

Mizzou Links, 10-21-09

Bill C. — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:49:23 -0000

Texas Links!

The Trib: No letdown likely for Longhorns

The Red River Rivalry may be the most emotional and physically challenging game they play every season, but the Longhorns have avoided the post-big-game letdown that hits other teams. Texas hasn’t lost the week after the Oklahoma game since 1997, former Coach John Mackovic’s last season in Austin.

"Beating Oklahoma doesn’t get you three wins. It’s just one. Each game gets bigger from here," defensive tackle Sam Acho said. "We know that."
The Trib: Gabbert in with both feet
KC Star: MU Notes: Gabbert feels better
PowerMizzou: Like Father, Unlike Son: Righting the Ship
Austin American-Statesman (Kirk Bohls): Longhorns defense has become the ultimate closers

The Texas defense has occasionally allowed a first-possession scoring drive, as it did against Oklahoma, or a touchdown on the opening series, as it did against Colorado before clamping down. But it has quickly adjusted and played hard the rest of the game all season long.

In fact, Saturday's effort should qualify as the best defensive performance by a Will Muschamp unit since his arrival 19 games ago.

Consider that the Longhorns have outscored their opponents 131-45 in the second half this season.
Austin American-Statesman: UT could use a 'statement' victory to earn cred in polls
Austin American-Statesman: Scouting Texas' next opponent: Missouri
Burnt Orange Nation: Roster Stew: Texas Longhorns Defensive Line

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, I've got to ask. Would Mack Brown be catching this much crap from Texas reporters and fans if he had played Colt McCoy with a sprained ankle? It's starting to annoy me a little bit. It's not a ligament tear, it's not a hairline fracture, it's not anything that is going to cause long-term problems--it's a sprain. It's going to hurt, and then it's going to get better. And especially considering Gabbert averaged 1.1 yards per pass more than Zac Robinson did on two legs (and as mentioned before, he was two drops away from 350 first-half passing yards...that's, uhh, not bad), I'm just not sure what the problem is here. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got rolled up by Donkey Kong Suh. And it's a damn shame that Missouri has now lost two games in a row in which they maybe could have won with a healthy Gabbert (definitely with Nebraska, maybe with OSU), but...that's football. Players get hurt, and when they feel good enough to play and won't cause long-term problems, they play, even if they're not at 100% effectiveness (and Gabbert absolutely isn't). The end.

(And for those suggesting Gabbert sit out the Texas game because we probably won't win anyway...come on. Gary Pinkel would be run out of town, relatively justifiably, if he actually did that. "He's saying we don't have a chance!" "He's not giving us a chance to win!!" People still resent Pinkel for getting rid of the fullback--how long would they hold a grudge if he more-or-less forfeited the Texas game to maybe do better later in the season? Gabbert should play, and Gabbert will play, and every coach in the country would have it that way.)

Anyway, with that off my chest, let's take a look back at Mizzou-OSU. Once again, the numbers tell you about what you thought they would.

	Mizzou (17)	OSU (33)
Close %	100%
Field Position %	48.5%	62.9%
Leverage %	72.1%	67.1%

TOTAL
EqPts	22.3	21.2
Close Success Rate	41.2%	41.4%
Close PPP	0.33	0.30
Close S&P	0.741	0.717

RUSHING
EqPts	6.5	7.8
Close Success Rate	52.2%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.28	0.22
Close S&P	0.806	0.622
Line Yards/carry	2.03	2.55

PASSING
EqPts	15.8	13.5
Close Success Rate	35.6%	42.9%
Close PPP	0.35	0.38
Close S&P	0.707	0.813
SD/PD Sack Rate	3.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	46.9%	53.2%
PPP	0.38	0.31
S&P	0.845	0.838

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	26.3%	17.4%
PPP	0.21	0.30
S&P	0.471	0.472

TURNOVERS
Number	4	0
Turnover Pts	19.4	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-19.4	+19.4

Q1 S&P	0.966	1.093
Q2 S&P	1.096	0.943
Q3 S&P	0.139	0.644
Q4 S&P	0.477	0.207

1st Down S&P	0.940	0.934
2nd Down S&P	0.779	0.525
3rd Down S&P	0.329	0.605

Projected Pt. Margin	-18.3	+18.3
Actual Pt. Margin	-16	+16

Reactions

Missouri outgained Oklahoma State by 42 yards, but only by 1.1 EqPts. Why? Because yards become much more valuable in opponents' field position, where the likelihood for points grows a lot faster, and Missouri got crushed in the field position game, starting three consecutive drives at their 14 as the game was being decided in the third quarter. OSU made some lovely defensive adjustments at halftime, and quite simply Blaine Gabbert didn't look as good in the second half. I remarked in the live blog that he just looked a lot stiffer after halftime, and nothing clicked for Missouri...as the numbers would attest.

A little more on Gabbert's ankle, just because. It really is a damn shame that the injury happened when it did. Here are Gabbert's season stats, before and after Suh rolled him up:

Before Ankle Injury: 92-for-139 (66.2%), 1,192 yards (8.6 per pass), 11 TD, 0 INT
After Ankle Injury: 34-for-79 (43.0%), 428 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD, 5 INT

Now, obviously it's not that simple. Before the injury, he was going against Nevada, Furman, et cetera, and after, he faced Nebraska and Oklahoma State. But still...he's gone from better-than-Ryan-Mallet numbers to worse-than-Josh-Freeman numbers as he's dropped from two good ankles to one. And at least two of the picks were directly related to the injury--the INT of the out route against Nebraska, when he clearly did not get enough juice on the ball, and the final INT against OSU, when his pass was woefully off-target. In pre-injury drives against Nebraska, he was 5-for-8 for 31 yards before the injury...and 12-for-35 for 103 yards and two picks after. With healthy legs, his numbers are still significantly better in those seven quarters, and Missouri potentially wins at least one more game. Damn you, Suh.

(And since I referenced it earlier, Jimmy Costello would probably have generated a better completion percentage than Gabbert but averaged at least a yard fewer per pass, probably two. The offensive gameplan would get extremely conservative with Costello in the game, and we haven't proven yet that our receivers, offensive line, running backs, etc., can move the ball 3-5 yards at a time. We're living and dying by the big play, and with Costello, we'd likely be without the big play.)

(And while we're at it, for the fans giving Pinkel crap for not having a capable backup...who in the Big 12 does have a capable backup? What would happen if Zac Robinson had to miss a game? Todd Reesing? Colt McCoy? Robert Griff...oh wait. Sam Bradf...oh wait. Only Texas Tech has similar quality from starter to backup...and maybe Nebraska, because apparently their starter isn't very good.)

Anyway, I promise I'm moving on now. More thoughts about OSU after the jump.

Field position, field position, field position. When your opponents are running 14% more plays in your territory than you are on theirs, you are giving yourself almost no margin for error. The third quarter was absolutely murderous for Mizzou despite the fact that the defense played damn well. But Mizzou was starting every drive from their 14, and OSU was starting every drive from midfield. When you're down seven to start the quarter, you are simply not giving yourself a chance to win.

(Now, this does come with a bit of a disclaimer: the third Mizzou drive starting at the 14 only started there becuase of the phantom hold penalty on Jasper Simmons' long kickoff return. Without that horrific call, Mizzou starts at OSU's 10, probably gets at least a field goal out of the drive, and cuts OSU's lead to either 27-20 or 27-24. But the stat sheet does not care about terrible penalty calls. The stat sheet is not sympathetic to your whines and cries. The stat sheet does not like you.)
Missouri actually stayed out of Passing Downs better than OSU did, but after some early success for Mizzou, that's where OSU clamped down the best on defense. They were much more mindful of the deep ball, and they relied on Gabbert inability to fire slants and outs as accurately.
Two conclusions can be drawn from the run-pass stats: 1) Missouri should have run more, and 2) OSU should have thrown more. OSU runs to soften you up as much as anything, but they just did not have much success there, and credit to Mizzou's defense for that. The Cowboys kept waiting for Mizzou to fall apart defensively and start getting gashed by the run, and it just didn't happen. Meanwhile, this really was a solid rushing performance for Mizzou, but as quickly as they found themselves in Passing Downs in the second half, the opportunity to work on the run never came about after halftime. Of course, David Yost and company still could have run the ball more, especially in those short-yardage situations late, but that's life. They clearly don't quite trust the run yet (it's not without just cause), and they probably won't during the Texas game either. Starting with Colorado on Halloween, they can start piling up the rushing yards.
Neither team generated any sort of pass rush whatsoever. We knew OSU didn't have much of a rush, but we hoped Mizzou's athletic ends would be getting at the QB more than they have this year. Granted, a less mobile quarterback would have been sacked 2-3 times Saturday night--Zac Robinson did an awesome job of evading the rush, but still...2-3 times still isn't that much, especially considering how many Passing Downs OSU attempted.
If you were to define the traits of a super-young football team, I think #1 would be "Struggles on Third Downs." Success on third downs is the last to come on offense, and...well, it hasn't come yet for Missouri. As Sean Weatherspoon said to that kid in the commercial, in due time. In due time.

Three Positives

The Defense. Yes, OSU was without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. But every offense Missouri has faced this season has performed below its season averages, and considering how much Mizzou's defense was up against the wall, and how much better it performed as the game wore on, they deserve major kudos. Hubert Anyiam had eight catches for 93 yards in the first half...and two for 26 in the second. OSU threw to him seven times in the second half and completed only two. They adjusted almost as well to OSU's offense as OSU's defense did to Mizzou's offense
Danario Alexander. A no-brainer. We fretted often before the season that this team didn't have a #1 receiver. It does, and he's a really, really good one. The passing game clearly isn't clicking on all cylinders, but it is not because of the lack of a go-to guy. You just can't go to the go-to guy on every pass, unfortunately.
The ~~Utes~~ Youths. Of the twelve players who made more than one non-special teams tackle Saturday night (sorry, Chris Willett, you don't count), ten are underclassmen. Andrew Gachkar looked great, Dominique Hamilton looked good, Jasper Simmons and Kenji Jackson looked good, Carl Gettis is back to being a helluva cornerback, Aldon Smith blocked two passes, Robert Steeples and Kip Edwards both got playing time and (aside from one play, where Steeples got burned and Simmons bailed him out) made the most of it. The anchor of this defense is still clearly Sean Weatherspoon, and obviously he will be gone in 2010, but there is a lot to like about this defense's future.

Three Negatives

Turnovers -- too many of them. It does not take a stat nerd to realize that you simply are not going to win many games with a -4 turnover differential. (Yes, here's another disclaimer: it should have been a -2 turnover differential instead, of course. Jasper Simmons' fumble was pretty clearly not a fumble, and Keith Toston fumbled late, but the replay official decided that he just wanted to end the game and go home instead of actually making the correct call. That, and the monitor from which he was basing his decisions was smaller than my work monitor...which isn't very big.)

In fact, since turnover margin is such an easy concept to understand, instead of elaborating further, I will instead point out this wonderful quote from Dave Steckel:
Finally, from the "There's no Such Thing as a Stupid Question Department," I asked Steckel to explain how small a defense's margin for error becomes against a quarterback like Texas' Colt McCoy, who completes 70 percent of his passes. His answer: "30 percent. That's called modern math. You asked."
Turnovers -- not enough of them. I have been quite pleased with the defense's development this year in terms of overall yardage allowed. But in struggling to find a pass rush, playing soft coverage at CB, and not having safeties experienced enough to play the ball better, they have intercepted only two passes. Clearly there are two parts to the turnover differential equation--committing them and forcing them. Mizzou has committed too many recently, but they also haven't forced enough.

Now...it's easy to just say "They need to force more turnovers!" and leave it at that, but that obviously comes with a price. You force turnovers by taking chances, and that opens you up to giving up more big plays. If I had to choose between either giving up few big plays or forcing a lot of turnovers, I'd go with the former. But as the defense gets more and more experienced, as maybe the young Agents Smith start to generate a better pass rush, and as the defensive backs get better at reading instead of reacting (and as the offenses on the schedule get worse), I hope that more takeaways will come.
Drops. Duh. You knew I'd have to mention this at least one more time. I understand that Blaine Gabbert probably throws passes too hard sometimes, but receivers go to college for free, with the understanding that their major job is to not drop passes. Two drops cost Mizzou at least 14 points Saturday night...in a game they lost by 16. This can't happen, especially now, when Gabbert is facing added degree of difficulty. The receivers need to help him out more than they are--only Danario Alexander is handling Gabbert's passes well enough.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Make Robinson dink and dunk

They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

No 40-yard gains for OSU, not even any 30-yarders, but to the extent that OSU's passing game succeeded on Saturday, it was due to the more intermediate passes. Four players caught passes of at least 20 yards, and while Missouri succeeded overall on defense, this did let OSU off the hook a few times.

Third Downs

[W]hen Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Missouri's defense was wonderful on Passing Downs, allowing OSU successes on fewer than 20% and a Passing Downs S&P of 0.472. Unfortunately, Missouri's own 0.471 S&P negated any advantage that came from this.

Run the freaking ball well

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

They did indeed run well...for a while. In the second half, they neither ran well nor got the opportunity. In the decisive third quarter, Missouri backs got two carries...that went for a combined one yard. It was a step in the right direction for the running game, but as mentioned above, it is clear from the play-calling that the coaching staff does not yet trust the running game against a real defense. With Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Kansas still on the schedule, the opportunity to get things going will present itself.

Summary

I'll just reiterate what we've been saying for the last week. BIG PICTURE, PERSPECTIVE, POSITIVITY, etc. No matter what happens on Saturday, the back half of Missouri's schedule is ripe for the picking. Nebraska generated a lot of positivity in the off-season by basically feasting on the crap teams on the back half of their schedule, and Missouri has a chance to do the same this year. Missouri just needs to perform well against Texas, stick together, and allow Blaine Gabbert to work through his pains, of both the physical and growing variety, and come out of the experience a better quarterback. With a healthy quarterback and a ton of underclassmen (now's a good time for a reminder: depending on the week, between 25 and 30 members of Missouri's two-deep are freshmen and sophomores) getting more and more experienced, this team could catch fire in the second half of the season if they can just avoid mental implosion in this tough three-game stretch.

It's a damn shame that Missouri couldn't beat either Nebraska or Oklahoma State--with the way the defense played, both games were there for the taking--but it's in the past. If Missouri loses to Texas, we'll read lots of stories and message board posts about how Missouri's falling apart, and in the basement of the North, and...who cares? Me, I'm for wasting sportswriters' time. So, I'd like to hang around and see if we can give 'em all a nice, big shitburger to eat.

Mizzou Links, 9-4-09

Bill C. — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 10:30:23 -0000

It won't stay this way, so I have to pound my chest while I can, but if you were to have bet on the five FBS vs FBS games from last night, using my BTBS Week 1 Picks as a guide, you'd be 5-0 right now. Just sayin'. And we had our first fantastic gambling moment of the night last night when Utah stripped Utah State quarterback Diondre Borel in the endzone (actually, they mauled him...pretty sure he fumbled because he was worried he was going to get decapitated), and Utah State recovered for a safety, giving Utah an 18-point lead. If the Utes had recovered, that's a 23-point lead and a cover on the 20.5-point spread.

Oh, and LeGarrette Blount. Yeah. Don't know what to say. Talked that dude up all preseason, then he lost his freaking mind after the first game. About that "Oregon to the Rose Bowl" projection...yeah...

Mizzou-Illinois Links!

Mizzourah: Week 1 - Illannoy Preview
Contrary to what others are saying without actually knowing what they are talking about, Blaine Gabbert is ready for prime time. This is why Pinkel didn't redshirt him last year. The kid has prepped for huge games; Illannoy last year, Oklahoma in the B12 Championship Game, Alamo Bowl, Texas, Okie State, the destruction of the Huskers in Lincoln. He was there. He has a deep receiving corp, led by Jared Perry and DaNario Alexander. Throw in two of his fellow soph's in Andrew Jones, who looked great in place of Chase Coffman, and the player that is ready to breakout, Wes Kemp.
PowerMizzou: Illinois Insider: Five Questions for Saturday
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Whose Turn Now?
Dave Matter: Writer's Block: Bob Asmussen
BTS: What's the fan base's general thoughts on Zook? Patience growing thin? Did the 2007 Rose Bowl season buy him enough goodwill to survive another losing/average season?
Asmussen: I think the fans are generally happy with Zook. The school has only been to the Rose Bowl twice in the past 45 years, so he's bought himself a lot of goodwill with that achievement. Will the fans grumble if the team has another sub-.500 season? Absolutely. But the consensus is that that won't happen.

I wouldn't say consensus, Bob...
Post-Dispatch: Jason Ford expects more work with Illinois this season

Plus, here's a fun note via Dave Matter on Twitter: "Most assume Illinois is the more experienced team ... but #Mizzou has 10 starters with 10+ career starts; Illinois has only seven."

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Bill C. — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 14:00:09 -0000

Pretty sure our current #11 is better. No offense, Jimmy D. (Via The Trib's R.C. Adams)

Almost ten years ago to the day, Missouri was at a precipice. Two years of unprecedented (in recent terms, anyway) winning broke Mizzou back into the land of respectability, but a lot of seniors had departed. Corby Jones, Devin West, Harold Piersey, Caldrinoff Easter, Marquis Gibson, Craig Heimburger, etc. Mizzou was going to be young in 1999, but they had exciting potential. Recruiting had improved! And speed! Mizzou had turned the corner as a program, and most fans truly believed that there was no turning back.

Sound familiar? Of course it does.

Missouri enters 2009 in a similar position--after two years of breaking through to a new level of wins and respectability, they have to now try to keep up momentum with a fresh bunch of young players. There is, of course, the faith that recruiting has improved, and that the program is in good shape heading into the future, but until Missouri actually proves that they are here to stay, we don't know for sure that that is the case.

In 1999, a young team quickly faced reality. After the offense carried the defense through two high-scoring wins (31-28 over UAB, 48-34 over Western Michigan), the infamous Ben Davidson game against Nebraska (Davidson snap back-to-back punts over the punter's head early in the game) was a nice slap in the face. After beating Memphis and losing a back-and-forth OT game against Colorado (still one of the most amazing games I've ever seen in person), disaster struck. Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Farmer broke his leg against Iowa State, and the offense fell apart. They were up 14-0 in the second quarter at the time of Farmer's broken leg, and over the final 5.5 games of the season, Mizzou would score just 48 points...34 of which came against Texas Tech. They would score a combined 14 points against Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Kansas State (all 14 coming in garbage time against ATM, with Justin Gage at QB), and in less than 12 months, Larry Smith went from "could run for Mayor of Columbia" to "could conceivably be fired."

Could the bottom fall out in 2009? Probably not, but of course it's a possibility. It's always a possibility if the right (well, wrong) things happen. The best thing to do a week away from the start of the season is compare the 1999 roster and schedule to 2009's. Remember, Mizzou went 4-7 in 1999...and they are predicted by multiple analysts (Phil Steele and Bruce Feldman to name two) to miss a bowl and have a similar record in 2009.

(For a further refresher on 1999, here's a pre-spring depth chart and the final 1999 statistics.)

After some early struggles, the Mizzou defense wasn't really that bad. The worst part of the defense was an offense that was going three-and-out about 17 times a game down the stretch.

Let's take a look at the (rough) depth charts for each year and see which team had the advantage, and in which areas.

Offense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
QB	Jim Dougherty (6'3, 190, So.) Kirk Farmer (6'4, 200, RSFr.)	QB	Blaine Gabbert (6'5, 240, So.) Jimmy Costello (6'3, 225, So.)	2009
TB	DeVaughn Black (5'11, 203, Sr.) Zain Gilmore (6'1, 205, So.)	RB	Derrick Washington (6'0, 225, Jr.) De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, So.)	2009
WR	Kent Layman (5'11, 187, Sr.) Eric Spencer (6'1, 165, So.)	WR	Danario Alexander (6'5, 215, Sr.) L'Damian Washington (6'4, 180, Fr.)	2009
WR	~~John Dausman (6'1, 184, Jr.)~~ Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.) Kareem Wise (6'3, 216, Sr.)	WR	Jared Perry (6'1, 180, Sr.) Jerrell Jackson (6'1, 190, So.) Rolandis Woodland (6'3, 200, RSFr.)	2009
FB	Rob West (6'0, 240, Sr.) Joe Chirumbolo (6'2, 246, Fr.)	WR	Wes Kemp (6'4, 225, So.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, So.)	2009
TE	Dwayne Blakely (6'4, 256, So.) Brandon Ford (6'3, 245, So.)	TE	Andrew Jones (6'5, 245, So.) Michael Egnew (6'6, 230, So.)	Draw
LT	Aaron Crittendon (6'5, 280, So.) Mike Ostendorf (6'5, 250, So.)	LT	Elvis Fisher (6'5, 300, So.) Mike Prince (6'3, 300, Jr.)	2009
LG	Joe Glauberman (6'3, 300, So.) Wes Wilson (6'4, 280, RSFr.)	LG	Austin Wuebbels (6'4, 305, So.) Jayson Palmgren (6'2, 305, So.)	Draw
C	Rob Riti (6'3, 285, Sr.) Mike Hayes (6'3, 298, So.)	C	Tim Barnes (6'4, 310, Jr.) Travis Ruth (6'3, 305, RSFr.)	1999
RG	Adrian Cole (6'4, 306, So.) J.P. Hall (6'4, 265, RSFr.)	RG	Kurtis Gregory (6'5, 305, Sr.) J.T. Beasley (6'4, 295, So.)	2009
RT	Justin Bland (6'6, 316, So.) Brad Smith (6'6, 289, Sr.)	RT	Dan Hoch (6'7, 320, So.) Jack Meiners (6'6, 305, Fr.)	2009

K	Brad Hammerich (6'3, 176, So.) Brian Long (5'11, 203, So.)	K	Grant Ressel (6'2, 190, So.) Tanner Mills (6'2, 200, Sr.)	1999
PR	Arty Johnson (5'10, 168, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	PR	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, Fr.)	Draw

Thoughts:

Of the 13 slots listed above, the 2009 team appears to have the advantage in eight, the 1999 team has the advantage in two, and there are three draws.
I love Tim Barnes, but Rob Riti was an All-American, so he gets the edge.
Joe Glauberman and Austin Wuebbels are actually in a similar situation--overshadowed by more high profile recruits, they quietly locked down a starting slot.
One pleasant surprise stemming from 1999 was the kicking of Brad Hammerich. If Grant Ressel, Tanner Mills or Trey Barrow end up being a similar pleasant surprise in 2009, I don't think anybody would complain.
I loved Kent Layman to death, but...yeah, Danario's better. Much, much better. And a moment of silence, please, for John Dausman's knees.

Defense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
DE	Justin Smith (6'5, 267, So.) Daryl Whittington (6'6, 227, Jr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (6'4, 250, So.) Brad Madison (6'4, 260, RSFr.)	1999
DT	Jeff Marriott (6'5, 288, Sr.) Cedric Harden (6'3, 275, RSFr.)	DT	Jaron Baston (6'1, 305, Sr.) Jimmy Burge (6'2, 285, RSFr.)	2009
DT	Steve Erickson (6'4, 280, Jr.) Terrell Jurineack (6'4, 271, Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (6'6, 295, So.) Dominique Hamilton (6'6, 300, So.)	1999
DE	Pat Mingucci (6'2, 266, Sr.) Danny McCamy (6'3, 250, Jr.)	DE	Brian Coulter (6'4, 250, Sr.) Aldon Smith (6'5, 255, RSFr.)	2009
OLB	Pat "TV's Patrick" Duffy (6'3, 236, So.) Josh O'Neal (6'1, 230, RSFr.)	OLB	Sean Weatherspoon (6'2, 250, Sr.) Donovan Bonner (6'2, 240, Fr.)	2009
Sam	Barry Odom (6'0, 219, Sr.) Michael Clay (6'3, 255, RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (6'3, 235, Jr.) Will Ebner (6'1, 230, So.)	1999
Will	Jamonte Robinson (6'2, 210, So.) Duke Revard (6'3, 232, So.)	OLB	Andrew Gachkar (6'3, 230, Jr.) Zaviar Gooden (6'2, 225, RSFr.)	Draw
CB	Carlos Posey (6'0, 202, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)	2009
CB	Antoine Duncan (5'10, 190, RSFr.) Andre Roberson (5'10, 172, Jr.)	CB	Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.) Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)	2009
FS	Julian Jones (5'11, 189, Jr.) Rodger Winston (6'1, 220, Sr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.) Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)	Draw
SS	Clarence Jones (6'1, 180, So.) Harold Hendricks (6'3, 207, Jr.)	SS	Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.) Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)	2009

P	Vince "00" Sebo (6'1, 228, Sr.) Jared Gilpin (5'10, 168, So.)	P	Jake Harry (6'1, 195, Sr.) Matt Grabner (6'4, 200, So.)	2009
KR	Ricardo Rhodes (5'6, 174, Jr.) Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.)	KR	Jasper SImmons (6'1, 205, Jr.) Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)	Draw

That's right, this team had players named Brad Smith and Pat Duffy...plus, there was a Stephen Colbert to boot. Hey, every team's gotta be good at something, and Mizzou 1999 was good at...having good names.
So that's seven in favor of 2009, three for 1999, and three draws.
Really, I'm giving Andrew Gachkar a decent amount of faith there because Jamonte Robinson was pretty damn good (94 tackles, 13 TFL/sacks, 5 passes broken up). Gack won't put together those stats, but he can be just as useful for the defense at hand. In the Larry Smith defense, all tackles were filtered to the Sam and Will (the OLB was as much of a DE as a linebacker), so Jamonte and his eight-foot arms were bound to rack up the tackles, though the 13 TFL/sacks is a really nice number. If only Jamonte were 25 pounds heavier, he was good enough to play in the pros. I'm challenging you, Gack--I'm saying that you're as right for this offense as Jamonte was for his...prove me right.
Carlos Posey had a really interesting career at Mizzou. He scored more touchdowns than any defensive back I can remember, but he was virtually nonexistant in 1999, registering one INT and just 29 tackles. I realize The Carl Gettis Treatment isn't a fan favorite at this point, but I think he still has the edge.
Not much of a Hardy Ricks fan, but I really wasn't a Clarence Jones fan. And while I love Kenji Jackson, I loved Julian Jones, so that's a draw.
Sean Weatherspoon vs TV's Patrick Duffy is one of the most unfair comparisons in the history of the world. Mizzou's 2009 team should really get about six advantages just from this matchup.

So as a whole, as one would expect, the 2009 team is much more proven, much more talented, and much faster. What about the other teams on Mizzou's schedule?

The Opponents

Needless to say, the North Division was in much better shape in 1999. Nebraska started the season ranked #6, Colorado #15, and Kansas State (facing similar rebuilding prospects in 1999 as Mizzou is in 2009, but getting a bit more respect) #20. The South was represented by #7 Texas A&M (a Mizzou 1999 opponent) and #17 Texas (not).

Whereas the North this year is represented by the #24 and #25 teams in the AP preseason poll, the North in 1999 was the class of the conference, with three teams in the Top 20. Their South opponents, meanwhile, were coming off of a conference title (ATM), a 7-5 record (Texas Tech), and one of the biggest upgrades in the history of coaching changes (OU, going from John Blake to Bob Stoops).

In 2009, Missouri faces, to say the least, a much less intimidating slate of opponents in the North division. The two favorites--Nebraska and Kansas--have pretty well-defined question marks and barely slipped into the preseason polls, and the other three division opponents--ISU, KSU, Colorado--have been outscored by Mizzou a combined 297-114 the last two years.

While the North slate is easier, the South slate is potentially tougher. Texas is the consensus #2 team in the country, OSU is in the Top 15, and Baylor...well, they're still Baylor to some degree, but this should be the best Baylor team of the last decade, for what that's worth. Behold the power of the Hot Tub.

In all, Mizzou faces 4-5 likely bowl teams in the conference in 2009, with two more (Illinois, Nevada) in non-conference play. They face 1-2 elite teams in Texas and possibly Oklahoma State In 1999, they faced six bowl-eligible teams, two elite opponents in Nebraska and Kansas State.

So when all's said and done, I guess it's about a wash.

But if the strength of schedule is about the same, and the team is significantly better...that probably means much more than four wins, right?

Summary

Clearly Mizzou is in better shape heading into 2009 than 1999. As mentioned before, you never know for sure where your program stands until you see the product on the field, but the depth chart has more proven quantities and is much, much better overall.

The key of course, will be the unforeseen developments of 2009. If Kirk Farmer hadn't gotten hurt, Missouri would have at least beaten Iowa State and given Kansas a better run. They may not have finished any better than 5-6, but they also probably wouldn't have so completely quit on the season, and there might have been a little more to build upon heading into 2000.

With the depth chart at hand, Missouri has at least a chance at making a run at another North title. But if Blaine Gabbert gets hurt? Or one of the tackles? Or Danario Alexander (again)? Injuries could pretty significantly alter this team's outlook, especially at quarterback. You could say that any year, but it's more true on a team that is so thin at QB and so impressively young overall.

In the end, though, as we mentioned on Friday, 2009 is only one piece of this program's future. Avoiding disaster in 2009 should mean very good things in 2010 and 2011, and to say the least, the foundation of the Missouri program is in much better shape, much less likely to teeter, in 2009 than it was a decade ago.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

UPDATE: Depth Chart updated after news of Blaine Dalton's dismissal.

The season is barely over a week away, and it is impossible not to be intrigued and excited by the completely unexpected nature of 2009. We think we know what to expect from Blaine Gabbert, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, Kevin Rutland, the lawfirm of Smith, Smith, and Coulter, and all the other guys who will be playing new roles this season, but we don't really know.

But there's an added variable of interest, at least for me, when it comes to the 2009 season: the 2010 season. We want to win another North title--as I was saying this time last year, if Mizzou wins the North in 2009, it's over ("it" being competition in the North division) for a while, thanks for playing, everybody go home. We want to win the division, make a nice bowl, prove that Mizzou is to "reload, not rebuild" stage, et cetera. But really, the single most prevalent, overriding goal of 2009 is simply to not mess up 2010 and beyond. In a major rebuilding/reloading season, Oklahoma went 7-5 in 2005, which would be like about 4-8 for Missouri, and then they won three straight Big 12 titles. It didn't matter whether OU went 5-6 or 7-5 or 10-2 that season--what mattered was that, even with the proceeding Rhett Bomar drama, they got experience, stuck together, and improved as the season progressed, and they were ready to go on a major winning streak when 2006 came around.

With that in mind, let's take a look at 2010 and 2011, and what could be in store if 2009 doesn't, in one way or another (catastrophic injuries, unexpected defection, damaged chemistry, etc.), derail the gameplan. For this exercise, we will more or less assume that the depth charts I've been projecting over the last couple of weeks come true, and we will use that assumption for the projected 2010 and 2011 depth charts.

2010

Boldface = returning (projected) starter
Asterisk = proj. number of years having started
x = no current scholarship player or known walk-on to fill the position

I'm intentionally leaving off any currently-committed recruits because Missouri has proven time and again that, while they'll almost certainly play some true freshmen, trying to figure out which ones ahead of time is a fool's game. A 2-star is almost as likely to come in and earn PT as a 4-star.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)* Jimmy Costello (Jr.) Ashton Glaser (RSFr.)	DE	Aldon Smith (So.)* Brad Madison (So.) Brayden Burnett (RSFr.)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr.)** De'Vion Moore (Jr.) Kendial Lawrence (So.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr.)* Jimmy Burge (So.) George White (So.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr.) T.J. Moe (So.) Kerwin Stricker (RSFr.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr.) Marvin Foster (RSFr.) Chris Earnhardt (Jr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (So.) Rolandis Woodland (So.) Jaleel Clark (RSFr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr.)* Michael Sam (So./RSFr.) Marcus Malbrough (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr.)* Gahn McGaffie (So.) Brandon Gerau (Jr.)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr.)* Zaviar Gooden (So.) x
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr.)* Michael Egnew (Jr.) Alex Sanders (RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (Sr.)** Donovan Bonner (So.) Andrew Wilson (RSFr.)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr.)** Justin Britt (So./RSFr.) Kirk Lakebrink (Sr.)	WLB	Will Ebner (Jr.) Josh Tatum (Jr.) Tyler Crane (Jr.)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr.)* Jayson Palmgren (Jr.) Mike Prince (Sr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr.)*** Trey Hobson (Jr.) Kip Edwards (So.)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr.)** Travis Ruth (So.) x	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr.)* Robert Steeples (So.) Munir Prince (Sr.)
RG	J.T. Beasley (Jr.) Daniel Jenkins (So.) Mark Hill (RSFr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Jr.)** Jarrell Harrison (Sr.) Tavon Bolden (RSFr.)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr.)* Jack Meiners (So.) Chris Freeman (RSFr.)	SS	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Matt White (RSFr.) Randy Ponder (RSFr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr.)* Trey Barrow (So.)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr.) Grant Ressel (Jr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (So.)* Carl Gettis (Sr.)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Kendial Lawrence (So.)

This year, we enter the season with a combined seven seasons of starting experience on offense and six on defense. Next year, it looks like about 11 on offense and 13 on defense.

Notes about the depth chart:

It bears mentioning that there's no way in hell somebody doesn't transfer or quit (UPDATE: or get thrown off the team for driving while intoxicated...on campus, ahem) between now and 12 months from now. Look at some of the younger guys on the third-string, trapped behind guys just as young or younger (i.e. look at the defensive line), if you want to get some pretty good red flags in that regard.
There will also be some position changes, offense-to-defense switches, etc. I have my own ideas about who or what those changes will be, but I tried to stay as close as possible to current positions (OL and LB aside). I wanted to make as few assumptions as possible here.
THREE senior scholarship players on the offensive three-deep, and only seven on defense. This team will still be ridiculously young NEXT year.
Missouri currently has commitments from four defensive backs (five if Jimmie Hunt switches to defense), so it will be quite interesting to see how many (if any) are worked into the rotation, being that DB is about the only senior-dominated unit for 2010. I mean, that's a pretty stout rotation right there. I guess there's a potential slot available at SS, but otherwise a true freshman would have to come in and truly dominated to pass some of those experienced guys.
I can't tell you how curious I am to see L'Damian Washington and T.J. Moe in action this year (I'm just going to assume that neither redshirt). If one or both can play to at least the level that Jared Perry and Danario Alexander did as true freshmen, then this WR corps should be quite stout with Kemp and Jackson as the veterans, Washington/Moe as the third starter, and a host of other guys who will get a shot to show potential this year.
Good god, how good is the offensive line going to be in 2010 (and 2011)??

Now the schedule:

Date	Team	Comments
9/4	vs Illinois	No Juice or (probably) Benn, but...Eddie McGee!!!1!!! Mizzou will probably be favored in this one.
9/11	McNeese State	Yawn.
9/18	?	I'm curious who we aim for with this spot. Clearly it will be a home game, since it's Mizzou's turn to "host" Kansas at Arrowhead, and you have to figure it will be a non-BCS team as well (duh), but no idea whether we're aiming for a Nevada type or an Idaho type.
9/25	Miami-OH	They really haven't been very good for since Big Ben left.
10/9	Colorado	As down as I am about CU in 2009, they should be pretty experienced and potentially solid in the trenches next year. It looks like they'll still have Cody Hawkins at QB, of course, but they should be decent.
10/16	at Texas A&M	Never fun going to College Station, but this one's winnable.
10/23	Oklahoma	As Lou Brown would say, one of these days we're gonna figure out how to beat those guys.
10/30	at Nebraska	The 2009 NU offense will dictate what I think about the 2010 Huskers. No idea right now, but a trip to Lincoln is a trip to Lincoln.
11/6	at Texas Tech	Are you noticing something about the 2010 schedule yet? Only one game in Columbia after 10/23. Yikes.
11/13	Kansas State	Until Bill Snyder proves something the second time around, this is a win.
11/20	at Iowa State	Until Paul Rhoads proves something, anything at all, this is a win.
11/27	vs Kansas	Kansas loses Reesing, Meier, Briscoe (probably), Sharp, Stuckey, Thornton...pretty much every player you can name, they will be gone in 2010. KU has recruited well and looks to be in a "Mizzou 2009" situation next year (hoping to prove they reload instead of rebuild), but Mizzou will definitely have the experienced advantage in this one.

Knowing what we know, it's safe to assume that, even if Missouri wins the North in 2009, people will be picking Nebraska in 2010 (with Colorado as the sleeper), so we should just prepare for it now! Mizzou will clearly have a major role to play in the 2010 race, but a) a million things, good or bad, could happen between now and then, and b) the "almost everything on the road" home stretch is a little intimidating, even if Mizzou will potentially be favored in at least three of the five road trips.

2011

Clearly it's silly to get too worked up, one way or the other, about something that will begin 24 months into the future. But if people stay healthy and develop like Mizzou tends to develop players, then WOW is this team loaded, especially on an offensive line that will have at least three multi-year starters and return four starters overall, and on a defensive line that will be stacked and experienced...and this is without even considering Sheldon Richardson's presence.

Of course, the key to 2011 expectations will be Blaine Gabbert. At 6'5, 240, with a cannon attached to his right arm, he is exactly what pro scouts look for in a quarterback, and if he has any success at all in 2009 and 2010, people will be assuming he's going pro. If he comes back like Colt McCoy, or if he leaves like Josh Freeman, it will have a tremendous impact on expectations. There will be plenty of options if he leaves--~~Blaine Dalton,~~ maybe 2010 commit James Franklin, or of course Jimmy Costello or Ashton Glaser--but obviously the overall outlook will be clouded in part by Gabbert's decision*.

* The more I talk about this, the more I feel like I'm unleashing a monster jinx regarding Gabbert's health, so I'm goign to shut up about it now.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Sr.)** Jimmy Costello (Sr.) Ashton Glaser (So.)	DE	Aldon Smith (Jr.)** Brad Madison (Jr.) Brayden Burnett (So.)
RB	De'Vion Moore (Sr.) Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) Gilbert Moye (Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Sr.)** Jimmy Burge (Jr.) George White (Jr.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Sr.)* T.J. Moe (Jr.) Kerwin Stricker (So.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Sr.)* Marvin Foster (So.) Chris Earnhardt (Sr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (Jr.)* Rolandis Woodland (Jr.) Jaleel Clark (So.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Sr.)** Michael Sam (Jr./So.) Adam Burton (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Sr.)** Gahn McGaffie (Jr.) Brandon Gerau (Sr.)	SLB	Zaviar Gooden (Jr.) x x
TE	Andrew Jones (Sr.)** Michael Egnew (Sr.) Alex Sanders (So.)	MLB	Donovan Bonner (Jr.) Andrew Wilson (So.) x
LT	Elvis Fisher (Sr.)*** Justin Britt (Jr./So.) x	WLB	Will Ebner (Sr.)* Josh Tatum (Sr.) x
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Sr.)** Jayson Palmgren (Sr.) x	CB	Trey Hobson (Sr.) Kip Edwards (Jr.) x
C	Travis Ruth (Jr.) x x	CB	Robert Steeples (Jr.) x x
RG	J.T. Beasley (Sr.)* Daniel Jenkins (Jr.) Mark Hill (So.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Sr.)*** Tavon Bolden (So.) x
RT	Dan Hoch (Sr.)** Jack Meiners (Jr.) Chris Freeman (So.)	SS	Matt White (So.) Randy Ponder (So.) Tony Randolph (Sr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Sr.)** Trey Barrow (Jr.)	P	Matt Grabner (Sr.)* Grant Ressel (Sr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (Jr.)* x	KR	Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) x

Sixteen seasons of starting experience on offense, 12 on defense. Solid experience everywhere, but just ridiculous experience in the trenches. Gabbert or no Gabbert, there's reason to be optimistic about the future just because of that.
As mentioned earlier, the secondary is really the only unit looking at taking a decent-sized hit this season. Same with linebackers, really, but we're all so excited about guys like Ebner, Bonner, Gooden, etc., that it seems like at least a bit less of a concern.

Date	Team	Comments
9/3	?	We can just assume that the three ?'s on the schedule will likely be filled with the usual: a BCS conference team, a decent non-BCS team, and a craptastic non-BCS team. Who those are is obviously up in the air, though I'll say this: I think ESPN and other networks will start trying harder and harder to manufacture good non-conference matchups by offering to pay both participants a decent amount of money. At some point, that will become a cost-effective thing to do, and I think you'll start seeing more matchups coming about in that way. No idea who Missouri might get paired with in such a scenario, but it might do us well to assume that it's possible to be anybody between Oregon and Miami, not just a regional matchup like Arkansas or Iowa.
9/10	?
9/17	?
9/24	Western Illinois	Yawn.
10/1	at Colorado	At the very least, CU should have a very good offensive line in 2011, whether Dan Hawkins is still there or not.
10/15	Texas A&M	All the sophomores currently on their two-deep will be seniors, so they could be pretty decent, whether Mike Sherman is still there or not (and with his ridiculously lengthy contract, he probably will be).
10/22	at Oklahoma	I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Missouri will not be favored in this one.
10/29	Nebraska	2011 is the anti-2010. Three of five down the stretch are at home, and they don't give up the home game against Kansas. Obviously we have no idea about any of the final five teams two years out, but it's certainly possible that Mizzou will be favored in all five, or at least four of them.
11/5	Texas Tech
11/12	at Kansas State
11/19	Iowa State
11/26	vs Kansas

Summary

The point of this exercise was simply to hammer home the point that Missouri will not only be playing for 2009 this year, but 2010 and 2011 as well. If recruiting continues to improve, or if a spate of injuries completely changes the outlook of the program, then these depth charts are about as far from realistic as possible, but the take-home point is simply this: if Missouri does disappoint in 2009, and clearly it's possible, it really will not affect the long-term prognosis of the program as long as the chemistry stays tight, the players stay healthy, and the players continue to improve. I really want Mizzou to shut everybody up and win another North title (and hey, throw in 10 wins for good measure), but Mizzou will likely survive long-term no matter what happens in 2009, and that's a pretty exciting thought to fall back on if things don't go as planned over the next four months.

Mizzou Links, 8-28-09

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 10:42:05 -0000

Final Scrimmage Reports!

The Trib: Final Scrimmage Report
Here's how the No. 1 offense fared in its possessions: punt, Washington TD run, punt, field goal. The No. 1 defense gave the No. 2 offense little breathing room, forcing a three-and-out, interception, three-and-out and three-and-out. By my count, the No. 1 defense gave up all of 23 yards on 18 snaps.
PowerMizzou: Final scrimmage report
Linebacker Will Ebner hurt his neck during the middle of the scrimmage, and sat out the rest. He was seen walking around fine, although it appeared his neck was stiff. It doesn't look too serious, and Pinkel said he'll have it checked out, but more for precautionary reasons.
PowerMizzou: One Last Look
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Scrimmage Wrap-Up
Mutigers.com: Final Scrimmage Brings Camp to a Close
With the move indoors, the format of the scrimmage was altered significantly, which meant that no score was kept on the day. Junior TB Derrick Washington had the lone touchdown of the day, when he scored on a 5-yard run early on. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert was an efficient 11-of-14 passing for 84 yards, with senior WR Danario Alexander being his favorite target on the day (4 catches, 42 yards).
KC Star: Mizzou's No. 2 quarterback has yet to emerge
The Missourian: Missouri pass rush highlights final scrimmage
"You look at the three (defensive) ends competing for those starting two jobs, and all three of those guys could start anywhere across the nation," Jimmy Costello said. "For us to have all three of those guys fighting for two spots, we're very fortunate."
The Maneater: MU football completes summer training
Post-Dispatch: Tigers still have questions

SB Nation - Jimmy Costello

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Tuesday Buff Bites - Hawkins Press Conference the Talk of the Town

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score

Texas(41)

Mizzou(7)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

The Morning After: How the Big 12 North Will Most Likely Play Out

After October 24

October 31

November 7

November 14

November 21

November 27/28

The Wildcards

Summary

Mizzou Links, 10-21-09

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(17)

OSU(33)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou Links, 9-4-09

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Offense

2009

2009

2009

2009

2009

Draw

2009

Draw

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

Defense

1999

2009

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

2009

2009

Draw

2009

2009

Draw

The Opponents

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

2010

2011

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou Links, 8-28-09

Texas
(41)

Mizzou
(7)

Mizzou
(17)

OSU
(33)