SB Nation - Trey Hobson

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou Links, 10-14-09

Bill C. — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:13:43 -0000

Mizzou-OSU Links!

Post-Dispatch: Mizzou feels depleted OSU is still formidable opponent
Mizzou (4-1 overall, 0-1 Big 12) might face a less-daunting task than it first would have appeared when it plays at 8:15 p.m. Saturday at Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-0) — where the Tigers have won on their last four visits.

But MU, of course, has matters of its own to resolve, from resuscitating a running game averaging 3.6 yards a carry to adding insulation to a defense that gave up 27 points in the fourth quarter in last week's 27-12 collapse against Nebraska.

And OSU, which put the first dent in then-No. 4 MU's 2008 ambitions with a 28-23 win in Columbia, hardly is caving in — whether or not it gets reinforcements this week.
The Missourian: Oklahoma State prepares for Missouri
The Trib: Blaine Gabbert looks likely to play at Oklahoma State
Tulsa World: Know The Foe: Missouri Tigers
Palestra.net: Mizzou Learns Lessons From First Loss

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Bill C. — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 14:00:09 -0000

Pretty sure our current #11 is better. No offense, Jimmy D. (Via The Trib's R.C. Adams)

Almost ten years ago to the day, Missouri was at a precipice. Two years of unprecedented (in recent terms, anyway) winning broke Mizzou back into the land of respectability, but a lot of seniors had departed. Corby Jones, Devin West, Harold Piersey, Caldrinoff Easter, Marquis Gibson, Craig Heimburger, etc. Mizzou was going to be young in 1999, but they had exciting potential. Recruiting had improved! And speed! Mizzou had turned the corner as a program, and most fans truly believed that there was no turning back.

Sound familiar? Of course it does.

Missouri enters 2009 in a similar position--after two years of breaking through to a new level of wins and respectability, they have to now try to keep up momentum with a fresh bunch of young players. There is, of course, the faith that recruiting has improved, and that the program is in good shape heading into the future, but until Missouri actually proves that they are here to stay, we don't know for sure that that is the case.

In 1999, a young team quickly faced reality. After the offense carried the defense through two high-scoring wins (31-28 over UAB, 48-34 over Western Michigan), the infamous Ben Davidson game against Nebraska (Davidson snap back-to-back punts over the punter's head early in the game) was a nice slap in the face. After beating Memphis and losing a back-and-forth OT game against Colorado (still one of the most amazing games I've ever seen in person), disaster struck. Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Farmer broke his leg against Iowa State, and the offense fell apart. They were up 14-0 in the second quarter at the time of Farmer's broken leg, and over the final 5.5 games of the season, Mizzou would score just 48 points...34 of which came against Texas Tech. They would score a combined 14 points against Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Kansas State (all 14 coming in garbage time against ATM, with Justin Gage at QB), and in less than 12 months, Larry Smith went from "could run for Mayor of Columbia" to "could conceivably be fired."

Could the bottom fall out in 2009? Probably not, but of course it's a possibility. It's always a possibility if the right (well, wrong) things happen. The best thing to do a week away from the start of the season is compare the 1999 roster and schedule to 2009's. Remember, Mizzou went 4-7 in 1999...and they are predicted by multiple analysts (Phil Steele and Bruce Feldman to name two) to miss a bowl and have a similar record in 2009.

(For a further refresher on 1999, here's a pre-spring depth chart and the final 1999 statistics.)

After some early struggles, the Mizzou defense wasn't really that bad. The worst part of the defense was an offense that was going three-and-out about 17 times a game down the stretch.

Let's take a look at the (rough) depth charts for each year and see which team had the advantage, and in which areas.

Offense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
QB	Jim Dougherty (6'3, 190, So.) Kirk Farmer (6'4, 200, RSFr.)	QB	Blaine Gabbert (6'5, 240, So.) Jimmy Costello (6'3, 225, So.)	2009
TB	DeVaughn Black (5'11, 203, Sr.) Zain Gilmore (6'1, 205, So.)	RB	Derrick Washington (6'0, 225, Jr.) De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, So.)	2009
WR	Kent Layman (5'11, 187, Sr.) Eric Spencer (6'1, 165, So.)	WR	Danario Alexander (6'5, 215, Sr.) L'Damian Washington (6'4, 180, Fr.)	2009
WR	~~John Dausman (6'1, 184, Jr.)~~ Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.) Kareem Wise (6'3, 216, Sr.)	WR	Jared Perry (6'1, 180, Sr.) Jerrell Jackson (6'1, 190, So.) Rolandis Woodland (6'3, 200, RSFr.)	2009
FB	Rob West (6'0, 240, Sr.) Joe Chirumbolo (6'2, 246, Fr.)	WR	Wes Kemp (6'4, 225, So.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, So.)	2009
TE	Dwayne Blakely (6'4, 256, So.) Brandon Ford (6'3, 245, So.)	TE	Andrew Jones (6'5, 245, So.) Michael Egnew (6'6, 230, So.)	Draw
LT	Aaron Crittendon (6'5, 280, So.) Mike Ostendorf (6'5, 250, So.)	LT	Elvis Fisher (6'5, 300, So.) Mike Prince (6'3, 300, Jr.)	2009
LG	Joe Glauberman (6'3, 300, So.) Wes Wilson (6'4, 280, RSFr.)	LG	Austin Wuebbels (6'4, 305, So.) Jayson Palmgren (6'2, 305, So.)	Draw
C	Rob Riti (6'3, 285, Sr.) Mike Hayes (6'3, 298, So.)	C	Tim Barnes (6'4, 310, Jr.) Travis Ruth (6'3, 305, RSFr.)	1999
RG	Adrian Cole (6'4, 306, So.) J.P. Hall (6'4, 265, RSFr.)	RG	Kurtis Gregory (6'5, 305, Sr.) J.T. Beasley (6'4, 295, So.)	2009
RT	Justin Bland (6'6, 316, So.) Brad Smith (6'6, 289, Sr.)	RT	Dan Hoch (6'7, 320, So.) Jack Meiners (6'6, 305, Fr.)	2009

K	Brad Hammerich (6'3, 176, So.) Brian Long (5'11, 203, So.)	K	Grant Ressel (6'2, 190, So.) Tanner Mills (6'2, 200, Sr.)	1999
PR	Arty Johnson (5'10, 168, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	PR	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, Fr.)	Draw

Thoughts:

Of the 13 slots listed above, the 2009 team appears to have the advantage in eight, the 1999 team has the advantage in two, and there are three draws.
I love Tim Barnes, but Rob Riti was an All-American, so he gets the edge.
Joe Glauberman and Austin Wuebbels are actually in a similar situation--overshadowed by more high profile recruits, they quietly locked down a starting slot.
One pleasant surprise stemming from 1999 was the kicking of Brad Hammerich. If Grant Ressel, Tanner Mills or Trey Barrow end up being a similar pleasant surprise in 2009, I don't think anybody would complain.
I loved Kent Layman to death, but...yeah, Danario's better. Much, much better. And a moment of silence, please, for John Dausman's knees.

Defense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
DE	Justin Smith (6'5, 267, So.) Daryl Whittington (6'6, 227, Jr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (6'4, 250, So.) Brad Madison (6'4, 260, RSFr.)	1999
DT	Jeff Marriott (6'5, 288, Sr.) Cedric Harden (6'3, 275, RSFr.)	DT	Jaron Baston (6'1, 305, Sr.) Jimmy Burge (6'2, 285, RSFr.)	2009
DT	Steve Erickson (6'4, 280, Jr.) Terrell Jurineack (6'4, 271, Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (6'6, 295, So.) Dominique Hamilton (6'6, 300, So.)	1999
DE	Pat Mingucci (6'2, 266, Sr.) Danny McCamy (6'3, 250, Jr.)	DE	Brian Coulter (6'4, 250, Sr.) Aldon Smith (6'5, 255, RSFr.)	2009
OLB	Pat "TV's Patrick" Duffy (6'3, 236, So.) Josh O'Neal (6'1, 230, RSFr.)	OLB	Sean Weatherspoon (6'2, 250, Sr.) Donovan Bonner (6'2, 240, Fr.)	2009
Sam	Barry Odom (6'0, 219, Sr.) Michael Clay (6'3, 255, RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (6'3, 235, Jr.) Will Ebner (6'1, 230, So.)	1999
Will	Jamonte Robinson (6'2, 210, So.) Duke Revard (6'3, 232, So.)	OLB	Andrew Gachkar (6'3, 230, Jr.) Zaviar Gooden (6'2, 225, RSFr.)	Draw
CB	Carlos Posey (6'0, 202, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)	2009
CB	Antoine Duncan (5'10, 190, RSFr.) Andre Roberson (5'10, 172, Jr.)	CB	Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.) Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)	2009
FS	Julian Jones (5'11, 189, Jr.) Rodger Winston (6'1, 220, Sr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.) Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)	Draw
SS	Clarence Jones (6'1, 180, So.) Harold Hendricks (6'3, 207, Jr.)	SS	Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.) Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)	2009

P	Vince "00" Sebo (6'1, 228, Sr.) Jared Gilpin (5'10, 168, So.)	P	Jake Harry (6'1, 195, Sr.) Matt Grabner (6'4, 200, So.)	2009
KR	Ricardo Rhodes (5'6, 174, Jr.) Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.)	KR	Jasper SImmons (6'1, 205, Jr.) Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)	Draw

That's right, this team had players named Brad Smith and Pat Duffy...plus, there was a Stephen Colbert to boot. Hey, every team's gotta be good at something, and Mizzou 1999 was good at...having good names.
So that's seven in favor of 2009, three for 1999, and three draws.
Really, I'm giving Andrew Gachkar a decent amount of faith there because Jamonte Robinson was pretty damn good (94 tackles, 13 TFL/sacks, 5 passes broken up). Gack won't put together those stats, but he can be just as useful for the defense at hand. In the Larry Smith defense, all tackles were filtered to the Sam and Will (the OLB was as much of a DE as a linebacker), so Jamonte and his eight-foot arms were bound to rack up the tackles, though the 13 TFL/sacks is a really nice number. If only Jamonte were 25 pounds heavier, he was good enough to play in the pros. I'm challenging you, Gack--I'm saying that you're as right for this offense as Jamonte was for his...prove me right.
Carlos Posey had a really interesting career at Mizzou. He scored more touchdowns than any defensive back I can remember, but he was virtually nonexistant in 1999, registering one INT and just 29 tackles. I realize The Carl Gettis Treatment isn't a fan favorite at this point, but I think he still has the edge.
Not much of a Hardy Ricks fan, but I really wasn't a Clarence Jones fan. And while I love Kenji Jackson, I loved Julian Jones, so that's a draw.
Sean Weatherspoon vs TV's Patrick Duffy is one of the most unfair comparisons in the history of the world. Mizzou's 2009 team should really get about six advantages just from this matchup.

So as a whole, as one would expect, the 2009 team is much more proven, much more talented, and much faster. What about the other teams on Mizzou's schedule?

The Opponents

Needless to say, the North Division was in much better shape in 1999. Nebraska started the season ranked #6, Colorado #15, and Kansas State (facing similar rebuilding prospects in 1999 as Mizzou is in 2009, but getting a bit more respect) #20. The South was represented by #7 Texas A&M (a Mizzou 1999 opponent) and #17 Texas (not).

Whereas the North this year is represented by the #24 and #25 teams in the AP preseason poll, the North in 1999 was the class of the conference, with three teams in the Top 20. Their South opponents, meanwhile, were coming off of a conference title (ATM), a 7-5 record (Texas Tech), and one of the biggest upgrades in the history of coaching changes (OU, going from John Blake to Bob Stoops).

In 2009, Missouri faces, to say the least, a much less intimidating slate of opponents in the North division. The two favorites--Nebraska and Kansas--have pretty well-defined question marks and barely slipped into the preseason polls, and the other three division opponents--ISU, KSU, Colorado--have been outscored by Mizzou a combined 297-114 the last two years.

While the North slate is easier, the South slate is potentially tougher. Texas is the consensus #2 team in the country, OSU is in the Top 15, and Baylor...well, they're still Baylor to some degree, but this should be the best Baylor team of the last decade, for what that's worth. Behold the power of the Hot Tub.

In all, Mizzou faces 4-5 likely bowl teams in the conference in 2009, with two more (Illinois, Nevada) in non-conference play. They face 1-2 elite teams in Texas and possibly Oklahoma State In 1999, they faced six bowl-eligible teams, two elite opponents in Nebraska and Kansas State.

So when all's said and done, I guess it's about a wash.

But if the strength of schedule is about the same, and the team is significantly better...that probably means much more than four wins, right?

Summary

Clearly Mizzou is in better shape heading into 2009 than 1999. As mentioned before, you never know for sure where your program stands until you see the product on the field, but the depth chart has more proven quantities and is much, much better overall.

The key of course, will be the unforeseen developments of 2009. If Kirk Farmer hadn't gotten hurt, Missouri would have at least beaten Iowa State and given Kansas a better run. They may not have finished any better than 5-6, but they also probably wouldn't have so completely quit on the season, and there might have been a little more to build upon heading into 2000.

With the depth chart at hand, Missouri has at least a chance at making a run at another North title. But if Blaine Gabbert gets hurt? Or one of the tackles? Or Danario Alexander (again)? Injuries could pretty significantly alter this team's outlook, especially at quarterback. You could say that any year, but it's more true on a team that is so thin at QB and so impressively young overall.

In the end, though, as we mentioned on Friday, 2009 is only one piece of this program's future. Avoiding disaster in 2009 should mean very good things in 2010 and 2011, and to say the least, the foundation of the Missouri program is in much better shape, much less likely to teeter, in 2009 than it was a decade ago.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

UPDATE: Depth Chart updated after news of Blaine Dalton's dismissal.

The season is barely over a week away, and it is impossible not to be intrigued and excited by the completely unexpected nature of 2009. We think we know what to expect from Blaine Gabbert, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, Kevin Rutland, the lawfirm of Smith, Smith, and Coulter, and all the other guys who will be playing new roles this season, but we don't really know.

But there's an added variable of interest, at least for me, when it comes to the 2009 season: the 2010 season. We want to win another North title--as I was saying this time last year, if Mizzou wins the North in 2009, it's over ("it" being competition in the North division) for a while, thanks for playing, everybody go home. We want to win the division, make a nice bowl, prove that Mizzou is to "reload, not rebuild" stage, et cetera. But really, the single most prevalent, overriding goal of 2009 is simply to not mess up 2010 and beyond. In a major rebuilding/reloading season, Oklahoma went 7-5 in 2005, which would be like about 4-8 for Missouri, and then they won three straight Big 12 titles. It didn't matter whether OU went 5-6 or 7-5 or 10-2 that season--what mattered was that, even with the proceeding Rhett Bomar drama, they got experience, stuck together, and improved as the season progressed, and they were ready to go on a major winning streak when 2006 came around.

With that in mind, let's take a look at 2010 and 2011, and what could be in store if 2009 doesn't, in one way or another (catastrophic injuries, unexpected defection, damaged chemistry, etc.), derail the gameplan. For this exercise, we will more or less assume that the depth charts I've been projecting over the last couple of weeks come true, and we will use that assumption for the projected 2010 and 2011 depth charts.

2010

Boldface = returning (projected) starter
Asterisk = proj. number of years having started
x = no current scholarship player or known walk-on to fill the position

I'm intentionally leaving off any currently-committed recruits because Missouri has proven time and again that, while they'll almost certainly play some true freshmen, trying to figure out which ones ahead of time is a fool's game. A 2-star is almost as likely to come in and earn PT as a 4-star.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)* Jimmy Costello (Jr.) Ashton Glaser (RSFr.)	DE	Aldon Smith (So.)* Brad Madison (So.) Brayden Burnett (RSFr.)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr.)** De'Vion Moore (Jr.) Kendial Lawrence (So.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr.)* Jimmy Burge (So.) George White (So.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr.) T.J. Moe (So.) Kerwin Stricker (RSFr.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr.) Marvin Foster (RSFr.) Chris Earnhardt (Jr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (So.) Rolandis Woodland (So.) Jaleel Clark (RSFr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr.)* Michael Sam (So./RSFr.) Marcus Malbrough (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr.)* Gahn McGaffie (So.) Brandon Gerau (Jr.)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr.)* Zaviar Gooden (So.) x
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr.)* Michael Egnew (Jr.) Alex Sanders (RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (Sr.)** Donovan Bonner (So.) Andrew Wilson (RSFr.)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr.)** Justin Britt (So./RSFr.) Kirk Lakebrink (Sr.)	WLB	Will Ebner (Jr.) Josh Tatum (Jr.) Tyler Crane (Jr.)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr.)* Jayson Palmgren (Jr.) Mike Prince (Sr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr.)*** Trey Hobson (Jr.) Kip Edwards (So.)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr.)** Travis Ruth (So.) x	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr.)* Robert Steeples (So.) Munir Prince (Sr.)
RG	J.T. Beasley (Jr.) Daniel Jenkins (So.) Mark Hill (RSFr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Jr.)** Jarrell Harrison (Sr.) Tavon Bolden (RSFr.)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr.)* Jack Meiners (So.) Chris Freeman (RSFr.)	SS	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Matt White (RSFr.) Randy Ponder (RSFr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr.)* Trey Barrow (So.)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr.) Grant Ressel (Jr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (So.)* Carl Gettis (Sr.)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Kendial Lawrence (So.)

This year, we enter the season with a combined seven seasons of starting experience on offense and six on defense. Next year, it looks like about 11 on offense and 13 on defense.

Notes about the depth chart:

It bears mentioning that there's no way in hell somebody doesn't transfer or quit (UPDATE: or get thrown off the team for driving while intoxicated...on campus, ahem) between now and 12 months from now. Look at some of the younger guys on the third-string, trapped behind guys just as young or younger (i.e. look at the defensive line), if you want to get some pretty good red flags in that regard.
There will also be some position changes, offense-to-defense switches, etc. I have my own ideas about who or what those changes will be, but I tried to stay as close as possible to current positions (OL and LB aside). I wanted to make as few assumptions as possible here.
THREE senior scholarship players on the offensive three-deep, and only seven on defense. This team will still be ridiculously young NEXT year.
Missouri currently has commitments from four defensive backs (five if Jimmie Hunt switches to defense), so it will be quite interesting to see how many (if any) are worked into the rotation, being that DB is about the only senior-dominated unit for 2010. I mean, that's a pretty stout rotation right there. I guess there's a potential slot available at SS, but otherwise a true freshman would have to come in and truly dominated to pass some of those experienced guys.
I can't tell you how curious I am to see L'Damian Washington and T.J. Moe in action this year (I'm just going to assume that neither redshirt). If one or both can play to at least the level that Jared Perry and Danario Alexander did as true freshmen, then this WR corps should be quite stout with Kemp and Jackson as the veterans, Washington/Moe as the third starter, and a host of other guys who will get a shot to show potential this year.
Good god, how good is the offensive line going to be in 2010 (and 2011)??

Now the schedule:

Date	Team	Comments
9/4	vs Illinois	No Juice or (probably) Benn, but...Eddie McGee!!!1!!! Mizzou will probably be favored in this one.
9/11	McNeese State	Yawn.
9/18	?	I'm curious who we aim for with this spot. Clearly it will be a home game, since it's Mizzou's turn to "host" Kansas at Arrowhead, and you have to figure it will be a non-BCS team as well (duh), but no idea whether we're aiming for a Nevada type or an Idaho type.
9/25	Miami-OH	They really haven't been very good for since Big Ben left.
10/9	Colorado	As down as I am about CU in 2009, they should be pretty experienced and potentially solid in the trenches next year. It looks like they'll still have Cody Hawkins at QB, of course, but they should be decent.
10/16	at Texas A&M	Never fun going to College Station, but this one's winnable.
10/23	Oklahoma	As Lou Brown would say, one of these days we're gonna figure out how to beat those guys.
10/30	at Nebraska	The 2009 NU offense will dictate what I think about the 2010 Huskers. No idea right now, but a trip to Lincoln is a trip to Lincoln.
11/6	at Texas Tech	Are you noticing something about the 2010 schedule yet? Only one game in Columbia after 10/23. Yikes.
11/13	Kansas State	Until Bill Snyder proves something the second time around, this is a win.
11/20	at Iowa State	Until Paul Rhoads proves something, anything at all, this is a win.
11/27	vs Kansas	Kansas loses Reesing, Meier, Briscoe (probably), Sharp, Stuckey, Thornton...pretty much every player you can name, they will be gone in 2010. KU has recruited well and looks to be in a "Mizzou 2009" situation next year (hoping to prove they reload instead of rebuild), but Mizzou will definitely have the experienced advantage in this one.

Knowing what we know, it's safe to assume that, even if Missouri wins the North in 2009, people will be picking Nebraska in 2010 (with Colorado as the sleeper), so we should just prepare for it now! Mizzou will clearly have a major role to play in the 2010 race, but a) a million things, good or bad, could happen between now and then, and b) the "almost everything on the road" home stretch is a little intimidating, even if Mizzou will potentially be favored in at least three of the five road trips.

2011

Clearly it's silly to get too worked up, one way or the other, about something that will begin 24 months into the future. But if people stay healthy and develop like Mizzou tends to develop players, then WOW is this team loaded, especially on an offensive line that will have at least three multi-year starters and return four starters overall, and on a defensive line that will be stacked and experienced...and this is without even considering Sheldon Richardson's presence.

Of course, the key to 2011 expectations will be Blaine Gabbert. At 6'5, 240, with a cannon attached to his right arm, he is exactly what pro scouts look for in a quarterback, and if he has any success at all in 2009 and 2010, people will be assuming he's going pro. If he comes back like Colt McCoy, or if he leaves like Josh Freeman, it will have a tremendous impact on expectations. There will be plenty of options if he leaves--~~Blaine Dalton,~~ maybe 2010 commit James Franklin, or of course Jimmy Costello or Ashton Glaser--but obviously the overall outlook will be clouded in part by Gabbert's decision*.

* The more I talk about this, the more I feel like I'm unleashing a monster jinx regarding Gabbert's health, so I'm goign to shut up about it now.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Sr.)** Jimmy Costello (Sr.) Ashton Glaser (So.)	DE	Aldon Smith (Jr.)** Brad Madison (Jr.) Brayden Burnett (So.)
RB	De'Vion Moore (Sr.) Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) Gilbert Moye (Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Sr.)** Jimmy Burge (Jr.) George White (Jr.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Sr.)* T.J. Moe (Jr.) Kerwin Stricker (So.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Sr.)* Marvin Foster (So.) Chris Earnhardt (Sr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (Jr.)* Rolandis Woodland (Jr.) Jaleel Clark (So.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Sr.)** Michael Sam (Jr./So.) Adam Burton (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Sr.)** Gahn McGaffie (Jr.) Brandon Gerau (Sr.)	SLB	Zaviar Gooden (Jr.) x x
TE	Andrew Jones (Sr.)** Michael Egnew (Sr.) Alex Sanders (So.)	MLB	Donovan Bonner (Jr.) Andrew Wilson (So.) x
LT	Elvis Fisher (Sr.)*** Justin Britt (Jr./So.) x	WLB	Will Ebner (Sr.)* Josh Tatum (Sr.) x
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Sr.)** Jayson Palmgren (Sr.) x	CB	Trey Hobson (Sr.) Kip Edwards (Jr.) x
C	Travis Ruth (Jr.) x x	CB	Robert Steeples (Jr.) x x
RG	J.T. Beasley (Sr.)* Daniel Jenkins (Jr.) Mark Hill (So.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Sr.)*** Tavon Bolden (So.) x
RT	Dan Hoch (Sr.)** Jack Meiners (Jr.) Chris Freeman (So.)	SS	Matt White (So.) Randy Ponder (So.) Tony Randolph (Sr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Sr.)** Trey Barrow (Jr.)	P	Matt Grabner (Sr.)* Grant Ressel (Sr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (Jr.)* x	KR	Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) x

Sixteen seasons of starting experience on offense, 12 on defense. Solid experience everywhere, but just ridiculous experience in the trenches. Gabbert or no Gabbert, there's reason to be optimistic about the future just because of that.
As mentioned earlier, the secondary is really the only unit looking at taking a decent-sized hit this season. Same with linebackers, really, but we're all so excited about guys like Ebner, Bonner, Gooden, etc., that it seems like at least a bit less of a concern.

Date	Team	Comments
9/3	?	We can just assume that the three ?'s on the schedule will likely be filled with the usual: a BCS conference team, a decent non-BCS team, and a craptastic non-BCS team. Who those are is obviously up in the air, though I'll say this: I think ESPN and other networks will start trying harder and harder to manufacture good non-conference matchups by offering to pay both participants a decent amount of money. At some point, that will become a cost-effective thing to do, and I think you'll start seeing more matchups coming about in that way. No idea who Missouri might get paired with in such a scenario, but it might do us well to assume that it's possible to be anybody between Oregon and Miami, not just a regional matchup like Arkansas or Iowa.
9/10	?
9/17	?
9/24	Western Illinois	Yawn.
10/1	at Colorado	At the very least, CU should have a very good offensive line in 2011, whether Dan Hawkins is still there or not.
10/15	Texas A&M	All the sophomores currently on their two-deep will be seniors, so they could be pretty decent, whether Mike Sherman is still there or not (and with his ridiculously lengthy contract, he probably will be).
10/22	at Oklahoma	I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Missouri will not be favored in this one.
10/29	Nebraska	2011 is the anti-2010. Three of five down the stretch are at home, and they don't give up the home game against Kansas. Obviously we have no idea about any of the final five teams two years out, but it's certainly possible that Mizzou will be favored in all five, or at least four of them.
11/5	Texas Tech
11/12	at Kansas State
11/19	Iowa State
11/26	vs Kansas

Summary

The point of this exercise was simply to hammer home the point that Missouri will not only be playing for 2009 this year, but 2010 and 2011 as well. If recruiting continues to improve, or if a spate of injuries completely changes the outlook of the program, then these depth charts are about as far from realistic as possible, but the take-home point is simply this: if Missouri does disappoint in 2009, and clearly it's possible, it really will not affect the long-term prognosis of the program as long as the chemistry stays tight, the players stay healthy, and the players continue to improve. I really want Mizzou to shut everybody up and win another North title (and hey, throw in 10 wins for good measure), but Mizzou will likely survive long-term no matter what happens in 2009, and that's a pretty exciting thought to fall back on if things don't go as planned over the next four months.

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:30:09 -0000

Moving right along in the Mizzou 2009 series...

Secondary

I think that was Ricky Steamboat's finishing move.

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.)
CB Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.)
S Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)
S Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.)
CB Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)
S Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)
CB Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
CB Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)
CB Munir Prince (5'10, 185, Jr.)
S Del Howard (5'11, 200, Sr.)

1. How bad was the Mizzou secondary in 2008? I won't spend a lot of time on this one, simply because I've gone over it before. Factoring in junk-time yards and the quality of the offenses Missouri was facing, they simply weren't nearly as bad as people want to think. Let's take a quick look back at the schedule, using good old S&P as a guide:

Opponent	Season Passing S&P	S&P vs Missouri*	Diff
vs Illinois	0.906	0.758	-0.148
Nevada	0.812	0.734	-0.078
Buffalo	0.855	0.827	-0.028
@ Nebraska	1.013	0.920	-0.097
Oklahoma State	1.083	0.950	-0.133
@ Texas	1.096	1.212	+0.116
Colorado	0.666	0.160	-0.506
@ Baylor	0.805	0.946	+0.141
Kansas State	0.853	0.195	-0.658
@ Iowa State	0.808	0.897	+0.089
vs Kansas	0.939	0.967	+0.028
vs Oklahoma	1.195	1.212	+0.017
vs Northwestern	0.812	0.792	-0.020

* Now's a good time to remind you that these are close-game ratings, meaning the only plays accounted for here took place when the score was within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and under 17 in Q3/Q4. Pretty much all of Illinois' passing success, for instance, took place when Mizzou was up a large amount, and when Illinois cut the lead back inside two possessions, the defense locked down again.

So Missouri held eight of 13 FBS opponents (no SEMO here) below their season rates, and in the case of a couple opponents--Colorado and K-State--completely shut them down. They gave up two huge passes to Northwestern and otherwise limited them to sometimes inefficient slant routes.

Now, one reason people are talking about how atrocious the Mizzou pass defense was in 2008 goes beyond the "117th in passing yardage" thing (which I've pretty thoroughly debunked by this time, I think). It's that they seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Of the five opponents who achieved an S&P above their season average, four came in the last six games, and they all came in the last eight. Granted, only two teams (Texas, Baylor) far exceeded their season averages--everybody else exceeded in very minor terms, but still, the Mizzou pass defense went from far above average early on (the perception was still hurt by those bombs to Will Judson against Illinois) to average or slightly below-average later in the season. Clearly that will need to change.

So here's my question: I don't think any of us are too worried about the secondary, at least not worried about them being any worse than last year. But if they actually weren't bad last year, can we still expect a comparative level of play? Can Kevin Rutland v2009 cover better than Castine Bridges (and Tru Vaughns, and Kevin Rutland) v2008? Can Carl Gettis do better in the nickel back role than William Moore did?

Mizzou's passing yardage numbers should improve this year for a number of reasons: 1) they probably won't be far ahead of teams as much, 2) they might be running the ball more (and therefore potentially eating more clock), 3) it's hard to get much worse than last year's yardage numbers, 4) et cetera. But will their S&P and S&P+ improve? Can they be counted on to at least hold teams to their season average in this regard? Are they going to be reliant on the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter to get good pressure on the QB and make their lives easier? We'll see.

2. Is somebody going to overtake Hardy Ricks in the starting lineup? Sub-question: how valuable is experience? I honestly have nothing against Hardy Ricks. I think he's a good hitter, he's a damn solid backup, and he seems like a good kid. I advocated for him to move to safety in 2007, thought that would suit his style of play better, and I still think that. But I just don't trust that he's good enough to be the starter in a decent secondary. I don't think his cover skills are up to snuff, even for a safety, and I'll feel much better about the defense if Jarrell Harrison or Jasper Simmons is able to overtake him as a starter by September 5.

And no, I do not know anything about the quality of play Harrison or Simmons are capable of delivering, but I think I know Ricks pretty well by now--he's a known quantity--and I'm really hoping that either or both of them are better.

3. Should Carl Gettis move to safety? This is not really a realistic question...just a thought. We've read for the last couple of weeks that this is the deepest set of cornerbacks Gary Pinkel has had at Missouri, how guys like Trey Hobson, Kip Edwards, Robert Steeples and Munir Prince are virtually interchangeable and how any of them would have started for Pinkel's first few teams. Meanwhile, at safety, Ricks is fighting with two JUCO transfers (Harrison, Simmons) for a spot in the starting lineup. And in the nickel alignment, Gettis plays the roaming nickel back. If he's already putting together some safety-esque skills, and Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince are better at CB than Ricks is at safety, then shouldn't this be a move we're considering?

Now...that's as far as I'm going with the thought. It's a waste of time to make suggestions or speculate about position changes when a) we're not at every practice (for all we know, Ricks could have turned into an all-conference safety over the offseason...though I think I'll go ahead and doubt that), and b) we're not the coaches, but it's certainly an idea that's been floating around in my head the last couple of weeks. I'd take my chances with a (short) safety combo of Kenji Jackson and Carl Gettis, with Kevin Rutland and the winner of the Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince derby starting at CB.

Mizzou Links, 8-12-09

Bill C. — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:54:54 -0000

Mizzou Practice Reports!

Dave Matter: Tuesday Practice Report
Facing the No. 1 defense, Blaine Gabbert looked like a seasoned veteran on a late series. With DE Aldon Smith breathing in his face and Sean Weatherspoon blitzing off the other edge, Gabbert calmly threw a strike to Jones down the left seam for a first down. Pretty cool under pressure.
Dave Matter: Tuesday Practice Report, Part II
Wide receiver T.J. Moe (foot surgery) sat out all drills again Tuesday afternoon, but only for precautionary reasons. With a double session scheduled for Tuesday, the training staff decided it was best for Moe to give his foot a full day's rest after five straight days of practice. He hasn't suffered any further damage to the original area.
PowerMizzou: Tuesday Practice Report
Really, really impressed with LDamian Washington so far. He's clearly the top freshman wideout through week one. Pete's going to have a story later in the week and I don't want to steal his thunder. However, one of Washington's best efforts today made him look like a defensive back. He went up high to get a hand on a pass from Ashton Glaser that saved what would have been a sure pick. Washington was also working in with the punt returners. A sign that the redshirt could come off? Too early to tell yet, but it's possible.
Mutigers.com: Tigers Take on Two-A-Days
PowerMizzou: August 11 practice photos

Today's videos: The Trib's Raw Video: Offensive Line, and PowerMizzou's PMTV: Two-a-days are here and PMTV: Tough up front.

Reaction: I'm getting more confident in Gabbert with each report, though I'm still not completely sold on the receiving corps. It sounds like Danario Alexander had a pretty bad morning practice with a large case of the dropsies. Everybody has a bad practice now and then, but hands have never been Alexander's (nor Wes Kemp's) biggest strength, so Gabbert will need to find at least a couple of reliable, sure-handed targets...at least one of which needs to be a WR. Is that Jerrell Jackson? Jared Perry? TJ Moe or L'Damian "Olive Oil" Washington (get it? because he's so skinny?)? Also: if we have such great depth at CB but Hardy Ricks is still starting at safety (no offense to him, but is he really one of our four best defensive backs?), at what point does somebody bring up potentially moving Carl Gettis (who is apparently to play safety in the nickel look) to safety and replacing him with either Kip Edwards, Trey Hobson, or I guess Munir Prince at CB? Not saying it should or will happen, but it's just kind of odd having great supposed depth at CB and not-so-much at safety.

Mizzou 2009, Part Three: My Guys

RPT — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos " Photo: STL Today

Kenji Jackson: One of my guys in 2009

Browse more photos "

Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

Part Two: Putting 2008 to bed

-------

For the past two years, our colleagues at Burnt Orange Nation have run what's become one of my favorite features, a post titled "My Guys."

In essence, PB, proprietor of the site and SBN College head honcho, picks out the five guys he thinks might be flying just a little too far below the radar for his tastes. Here's how PB explains it in this year's version of My Guys:

One of my favorite pieces to read prior to each MLB season is Joe Sheehan's "My Guys" column, penned before each year to highlight those players Joe is eyeballing for a breakout season, yet who aren't receiving big time hype. Translating that to Texas football, I'm looking for those guys (limit of five) who might surprise a lot of folks with how well they play this year -- those with the highest production-to-hype ratio.

This year, I've decided to shamelessly steal emulate and honor the My Guys concept. For the first time, allow me to introduce "My Guys" for the 2009 season after the jump.

MY GUYS, 2009

Kenji Jackson -- Call me a sucker for fiery Mizzou safeties who wear No. 13. As Bill C. and I have discussed before, "Don't call me Ken-jee" Ken-jah Jackson would have been an all-American team if they composed a team of players who almost made plays in 2008. As a true freshman, he worked his way into starts against K-State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Northwestern. Despite limited time, Jackson finished seventh on the team in tackles in 2008 (despite the stat killing "DNP" against Illinois), ahead of Ziggy Hood, Luke Lambert, and Stryker Sulak, among others. In the last two seasons, the MU pass D has had no shortage of DBs willing to hit. Jackson certainly showed the ability to hit on defense and special teams in 2008, and if he can make up those couple of inches he always seemed shy of in coverage in 2008, he could be one of the most pleasant revelations for the MU defense in 2009.

Jerrell Jackson -- Not counting TE Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp was "the big get" for the receiving corps in the recruiting class of 2008. Little (if any) hype went the way of Jerrell Jackson, the 2-star athlete from Houston, until fall camp started last August (although, we have to give kudos to Ridiculous Matt/Mizzourobot, who called him as his sleeper in the class). Even though every single receiver Missouri has recruited in the last two years has made some kind of reference to being "the next Jeremy Maclin," Jackson may actually get the chance. Jackson was quiet outside of the SEMO game in 2008, but his dual threat potential has had "those in the know" salivating for the last 12 months. Missouri's success on offense over the last few years has been predicated upon depth of weapons; if teams load up on Derrick Washington and shade their coverages on Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, Jackson and Jones become prime candidates for big years.

Andrew Gachkar -- All the love for the linebacking corps is usually directed toward Sean Weatherspoon, and rightfully so. Luke Lambert may not be a star, but he's certainly a known commodity. In the spring game, new DC Dave Steckel looked committed to keeping Missouri's base 4-3 on the field rather than changing to the nickel set Missouri favored for the majority of 2008. There's always the distinct possibility that Missouri goes back to the base nickel with Carl Gettis in the slot in 2009, but that will largely depend on the play of Gachkar. Much like linebacking counterpart Will Ebner, I've raved about Gachkar's motor and pursuit. In Steckel's defense, which appears to favor pursuit above all else, Gachkar is the kind of linebacker that can make or break the system. Here's to hoping "My Guy" makes it rather than breaks it.

Aldon Smith -- I wrestled with including Smith, considering he's been seeing a lot of love from Dave Matter and Gabe DeArmond this offseason. Considering he's a "non-starter" (although he'll reportedly see significant snaps), I feel comfortable enough calling him under the radar. Practice reports have indicated that he, alongside Brian Coulter and Jacquies Smith, have created a major source of depth at defensive end. Some have gone as far to say the Coulter/Smith/Smith trio (law firm?) may be the best D-end group in recent history -- history that includes Sulak and Mizzou sackmaster Brian Smith. Good enough for Gabe and Dave means good enough for me.

Kip Edwards -- Four defensive players on My Guys, including two defensive backs? Blasphemy, right? Admittedly, this pick may be a bit of a stretch. Edwards may have a battle ahead of him to fight off Kevin Rutland, Munir Prince and Trey Hobson for the cornerback spot opposite Carl Gettis, as well as a battle to beat DeVion Moore and others for the right to return. What comes to mind for Edwards in what little I've seen of him is "fluidity." His motion in the defensive backfield seemed extremely smooth in the spring game, as he glided to pick off a telegraphed out route from Blaine Gabbert.

My Guys Second Team/Honorable Mention: Will Ebner, Gahn McGaffie, Kendial Lawrence, Josh Tatum, Zaviar Gooden

With that, I turn it to all of you in the RMN community: Who are "your guys" in 2009 and why?

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Defense

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Defensive Line

Yeah, it didn't take me long to fall in love with Aldon Smith, who was the most disruptive, and vocal, defensive end I saw. He, Jacquies Smith, and God Coulter all pass the eyeball test and didn't really ever find themselves out of position. It was what I hoped to see, and I saw it. Plus, it's fun having two badass DEs (J. Smith, Coulter) wearing single digits. Don't ask me why.

I watched Brad Madison and Marcus Malbrough quite a bit, and at the very least they seemed competent, though they didn't make a lot of noise. The star of the line really was #85, A. Smith. He sacked Gabbert in the redzone and unleashed a primal yell that could be heard at the Med School.

As for the defensive tackles, I was quickly reminded of how good Jaron Baston can be. He's a fun combination of smart and crazy, and I really like him as the anchor of the line. The only other DT I noticed was Dominique Hamilton, who despite having 0 tackles made a couple of nice plays beyond the almost-INT (which I'm convinced he dropped just because he didn't want to have to run the 70-80 yards of open field that were in front of him had he held on). Terrell Resonno really didn't make any noise, but that's not always necessarily a bad thing from a DT, I guess.

Linebackers

I love this unit. A lot. Maybe not as much as rptgwb, but a lot. There's really nothing more to say about Sean Weatherspoon, so I won't say anything--you know what you're getting from him. Beyond that, though, Andrew Gachkar and Luke Lambert both looked excellent--both fast and smart--and you know how much we at RMN love us some Will Ebner, who may not even get much playing time this year due to how good GACK and Lambert look. This is a strong, punishing unit of LBs, and it will absolutely be a strength of this defense. This unit replicates the personality of its defensive coordinator.

Also, as rptgwb mentioned Saturday evening, Mizzou rarely went to a nickel package because GACK seemed more than capable of lining up against a TE or slot WR. If you can get away with base 4-3 in passing situations, you can disguise what you're doing a lot more. Says me, anyway.

Defensive Backs

I really wanted to see something good out of the DBs, and I think I got my wish. At cornerback, Carl Gettis did what he always seems to do (2008 KU and NW'ern games aside)--blend into the woodwork, do nothing to get noticed, and prevent the QB from even thinking about throwing to the guy he's covering. Meanwhile, both Kevin Rutland and Kip Edwards looked awesome. Loved what I saw from them. Trey Hobson looked decent, as well. I didn't really notice anything from Munir Prince or Robert Steeples.

At safety, yeah...if not for Gettis, Kenji Jackson would be getting most of my mancrush attention. Mizzou safeties like Jason Simpson, David Overstreet, and William Moore showed a trend of looking lost their freshman years, looking decent their sophomore years, and breaking through in their junior years (and, ahem, having disappointing senior seasons). Kenji already looks like a breakout junior, only he's a true sophomore. He deserves to wear #13, as he plays EXACTLY like Pig Brown, laying back and punishing anybody who offends him by thinking about catching a ball in his neighborhood.

Beyond Jackson, if there was one thing I was disappointed about in this scrimmage, it was that the offense never really tried to attack Hardy Ricks. You know from previous posts that I don't trust him at all, and I really wanted to see him being challenged. As it was, nothing really happened in his neighborhood. He didn't do anything wrong, persay, but he also only had 0.5 tackles. Jerrell Harrison, meanwhile, looked pretty decent, but nothing really happened in his area either. If anybody looked impressive beyond KJ13, it was Mr. Zaviar Gooden, who is as physically impressive as a safety will ever be. Dude can hit. Shawn Scott made the mistake of trying to bounce a run outside, and he was not only caught, but rudely and effortlessly thrown down by Gooden.

Special Teams

We witnessed the creation of a new RMN legend/nickname on Saturday. At halftime we learned Mizzou coaches don't call this unit "Special Teams," but "Special Forces." After joking about Grant Ressel spending his offseason sniping pirates in the ocean, we set about giving everybody in this unit official titles. And then ZouDave unleashed this stream of consciousness: "So does that mean Admiral Wolfert is being replaced by Sergeant Mills? Corporal Mills? General Mi...GENERAL MILLS!!! YES!!!!"

From this point forward, Tanner Mills will heretofore be called General Mills.

With that out of the way, I can confirm that General Mills does indeed have a freaking cannon for a leg. He boomed the first kickoff of the scrimmage about six yards deep in the endzone, and the kickoffs that didn't reach the endzone hung in the air a long time. That will be a special teams strength.

As for place-kicking, Mills and all the kickers were fine. Not great, not terrible, just fine. Mills was only 2-for-4, but the ball looks good coming off his foot, and while he may not be Jeff Wolfert, he won't be Joe Tantarelli either. (Sorry, Joey Tants.) The other two kickers--Gunnysergeant Trey Barrow and Corporal Ressel--looked fine too, with Ressel looking to have at least a smidge more leg strength.

To punting, where all I can say is, Captain Jake Harry looked like crap last spring too. He was, I guess, in mid-spring form on Saturday, and I'm just going to close my eyes and convince myself that when the games are real, he'll be ready. Moving on...

...to returns, where I can confirm (shocker) that none of the potential kicker returners are in fact Jeremy Maclin. Carl Gettis (punt) and Munir Prince (kickoff) both had trouble fielding the ball, and from what I've seen and read previously, it wouldn't surprise me if the September starters were Gahn McGaffie (punt) and Kip Edwards (kickoff). No idea on their return skills, as it was basically just kicker/punter vs returner out there.

(One of these years, a kicker will fulfill my wish and attempt an onside kick against air...and celebrate upon recovery. One of these days.)

Conclusion

I'll say this much for the 2009 Missouri defense: there will not be a harder-hitting unit in the Big 12 North. This was a strength of last year's defense, and with the addition of guys like Aldon Smith, Gachkar, Ebner, and a matured version of Kenji Jackson (plus guys like Gooden waiting in the wings), it's only going to become a more pronounced strength in 2009. This unit is high on attitude and personality (at one point, Jaron Baston was dancing to the music in his head late in Saturday's scrimmage, forever earning my affection), and hopefully it will be high on production as well.

You never know how smart or consistent a defense is going to be until they play against opponents they haven't been practicing against non-stop, but I'm optimistic that despite the lost starters, this defense will play to at least the level of last year's defense, and as you may remember, last year's defense may not have been as bad as you thought.

A 2009 Walkthrough: Cornerbacks

Bill C. — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 18:00:09 -0000

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Line
Defensive Ends
Defensive Tackles
Linebackers

There's no question that, despite the presence of William Moore and Carl Gettis, the 2008 Mizzou secondary was the team's weakest link. Of Mizzou's four losses, really only one could be laid at the feet of the defensive backs (the Kansas game, though even then...if the offense had produced anything in the first 25 minutes of the game, Mizzou would have probably won), but while you can somewhat dismiss the "117th in pass defense!" due to a) opponents playing from behind a lot, b) opponents running a ton of plays due to Mizzou running a ton of plays, and c) the Big 12 having historic passing numbers across the board, it was still the weak link. Mizzou was #80 in the country in pass efficiency defense, and even takign Big 12 offenses into account, this was overall a weak unit.

What were the main causes? Misuse of William Moore? Epically bad communication between CBs and safeties at the end of the year? Lack of talent/athleticism in at least two of the four DB positions (#2 CB and SS)? Well...

If the problem was misuse of Willy Mo, then look for continued problems in '09, as the Mizzou staff has already mentioned that they plan on using Carl Gettis in the "Willy Mo" role (i.e. the nickel back who blitzes a lot and plays all over the field) in '09. The coaches obviously don't think the problems stemmed from bad defensive philosophy. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong--we'll see soon enough.
If the problem was bad communication, then in theory things might improve. The two players complaining about bad communication after the KU game were Gettis and Kenji Jackson (plus, Willy Mo was seen excoriating Justin Garrett after one big play), leading one to believe that the main problems in communication might have (hopefully) been at the feet of Garrett, or Castine Bridges, or Hardy Ricks/Del Howard (Deldy Rickard?). If that's the case, it's a good thing as Gettis and Jackson both have at least two more years in the secondary, and the problems are located mostly with upperclassmen who hit their ceiling. It might be pure wishful thinking to simply scapegoat the older guys, but hopefully the problem really did lie with them. Again, we'll see soon enough.
It certainly seems that, at the very least, the "athleticism" quotient will improve for Mizzou with the addition of RSFr's Robert Steeples, Kip Edwards, and Zaviar Gooden to the DB corps. As for talent...well, you got it...we'll see soon enough.

On to the returnees, redshirts, and newbies after the jump...

Returnees

Carl Gettis (5'11, 200, Junior)
2008: 78 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FR, 4 PBR
2007: 49 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBR

As someone who has tried to trademark "The Carl Gettis Treatment," it's clear to see that I'm a fan of #19. That said, there isn't a more confusing player in the country to evaluate than Gettis. His stats are...fine. He plays well close to the line of scrimmage and seems to defend the run well (part of the reason, I assume, that he's moving to nickel back in certain situations next year), but the biggest part of his game doesn't come across in stats at all.

For two years, opponents' #1 receivers simply haven't done much against Mizzou. When opponents have a receiver that goes off, it's likely the #2 or #3 or #4 guy (think Kerry Meier, or Northwestern's Rasheed Ward, or OSU's Damian Davis, or Illinois' Will Judson). Guys like Arrelious Benn or Dez Bryant didn't do much at all against Mizzou, at least not when the game was in question. Sure, Gettis had trouble with Dez Briscoe, and he certainly got torched for one of Northwestern's TDs (though that looked like another communication issue as much as anything), but...if it truly were because of wonderful coverage, wouldn't Gettis at least have racked up big pass break-up numbers? And if he's so good that Big 12 teams just didn't even bother to look at the guy he was covering, then wouldn't he have at least gotten second-team All-Big 12 from the coaches?

(Actually, scratch that last part. Those coaches' all-conference teams are so awful that they shouldn't be used in any debate.)

Anyway, no matter how good Gettis is or is not, he's going to have to be great in 2009. He will be the leader of an extremely young, athletic group of DBs, and after Mizzou struggled against the pass in '08, you can bet that every '09 opponent is planning on attacking the secondary in a major way in '09.

Kevin Rutland (6'0, 190, Junior)
2008: 25 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 5 PBR
2007: 4 tackles

Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, Sophomore)
2008: 16 tackles, 1 TFL

I'll be honest--I have no idea what to make of Kevin Rutland. He doesn't seem as fast or physical as Trey Hobson, but he was above Hobson on the depth chart most of the year. I don't know if it was just that Hobson was sporadic in practice or what, but I'll feel a lot less worried about this unit if Hobson emerges over Rutland.

I think Hobson has a much higher upside--lots of people were extremely complimentary of his play last spring--and played quite well in the Alamo Bowl, but he clearly needs to become more consistent. Rutland's upside is more defined, and while his seeming consistency is a good thing, I'm all about upside, baby. Me and Hubie Brown.

Redshirts

Munir Prince (5'10, 185, Junior)
2007 (at Notre Dame): 3 tackles, 1 PBR, 1 punt return for -8 yds
2006 (at Notre Dame): 15 carries, 21 yds at RB

Ahh, Munir Prince. "Whoosh." Scourge of Rakes of Mallow.

It's apparently very easy to talk yourself into Munir Prince. It's already started here--people on other sites talking about how much he'll stabilize the secondary and the speed he can bring to the table...even though he's never actually performed well on the field in front of an audience, and he's never shown the game speed that he's rumored to have.

Honestly, these expectations have been unfair to him, a lot like they were unfair to Brian Coulter. Prince was never more than a third-stringer at Notre Dame (on at least one horrible Notre Dame team), and while he could certainly be ready to shine--he is fast, he is now an upperclassmen, he has been a defensive back for a couple years now (after moving from RB) and he is also now playing closer to home, which might make a difference--let's let him prove it first. I'm going to assume that either Hobson, Rutland, or one of the redshirt freshmen will be starting opposite Carl Gettis, and I'm going to let him make an impression on me with a blank slate. I encourage you to do the same.

Robert Steeples (6'1, 190, RSFr)
Kip Edwards (6'1, 185, RSFr)

I'm listing these two together because they are more or less interchangeable. They're basically the same size and speed, the staff has been extremely high on both of them, and if one of them emerges at the level of Gettis or Kenji Jackson, this secondary could suddenly be a lot better. As closely as I'll be watching Trey Hobson in the spring to see if he can put together consistent effort, I'll be watching these two for...you guessed it...upside. It seems they both have a lot of it, and I'm excited about the future of this secondary. In 2010, this secondary should be great. I'm just not sure about 2009 yet.

Incoming

TJ Moe (6'0, 180, St. Louis)

Likely a safety, I'm putting Moe here because he seems to be such a ridiculous athlete that he might force the staff to fit him on the field somewhere, anywhere. He's athletic enough to play QB, WR, CB, or S, and if he makes a quick adjustment to college speed, look out.

Kerwin Stricker (6'2, 190, Washington, MO)

Likely a WR, I'm putting him here because he seems to fit the "big, athletic DB" model and might find himself wedged out at WR.

Potential Incoming

Mike Lang (6'0, 180, Largo, FL)

A brand, spanking new name from the recruiting trail, Lang has offers from Mizzou, Iowa State, and Cincinnati among others. Don't know a thing about him, other than Mizzou felt high enough about him to offer him a schollie. That's good enough for me.

2008 vs 2009

Will the Mizzou CBs be better in 2009? Easy answer: it really can't be worse than 2008. Harder answer: it could be worse because of the inexperience involved, but this position has received a major shot in the arm from the athleticism standpoint. Mizzou's pass defense is based on a "read and react" type of mindset, which works if you've got guys who can react really quickly. That alone dissuades the use of under-classmen who aren't quite up to speed in the mental department yet, but if guys like Hobson, Steeples or Edwards are ready for prime time, this defense just got a lot faster and, possibly, a lot better. This unit will be very interesting to watch in March and April.

Poll

Who will start at CB opposite Carl Gettis in 2009?

Kevin Rutland

13 votes

Trey Hobson

14 votes

Munir Prince

33 votes

Robert Steeples

10 votes

Kip Edwards

7 votes

other

1 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 13:00:05 -0000

We're going to set up projections the same way we did for Illinois (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), only to get enough of a sample size, I'm not going with SEMO, but with "FCS Tier 6", the estimated amalgamation of the worst FCS teams to play D1 opponents in 2007. (I've explained this before, but basically I combined the 1-AA/FCS teams into six tiers and grouped their stats together thusly.)

So without further adieu...

Mizzou-SEMO Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 19.77
Projection #1: 35.34
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts+: 50.18
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 32.30

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 33.82

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 17.32
Projection #1: 25.90
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts+: 45.11
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 40.79

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 33.35

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

SEMO Rushing

FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts+: 47.00
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 3.90
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.57
Projection #2: 4.98

Projected SEMO Rushing Output: 4.44

Adjusted for 2008: 2.50 (I liked what I saw against Illinois)

SEMO Passing

FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts+: 38.82
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 4.71
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 4.44
Projection #2: 3.15

Projected SEMO Passing Output: 3.93

Adjusted for 2008: 4.50 (are the troubles with Mizzou's Passing D enough to accidentally give up a long pass to SEMO at some point?)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 56.0, SEMO 7.0

Special Teams

SEMO's special teams unit actually isn't that bad. Doug Spada is a stud punter--he averaged 42.6 yards per punt last year and uncorked a 47.6 yard average over 5 punts last weekend against SW Baptist (including two inside the 20). He's an average kicker--he went 2-for-4 on FGs last weekend, including misses from 34 and 35, but made a 47-yarder--and only averages about 59 yards on kickoffs, but let's be honest: he's going to be punting a lot more than he's kicking off or booting FGs, so this plays to his strengths. Their return game is nothing amazing, but it's also nothing terrible.

Unfortunately for SEMO, a) Mizzou just shut down a much better return game than SEMO has to offer, b) SEMO's never tried to tackle Jeremy Maclin before, and c) we've got Jeff Wolfert, and they don't. Special teams should be worth at least another 3-7 points on the scoreboard.

FCS Tier 6 Teams: Top '+' Rankings

Before I get to the "key players" for each team (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), I wanted to look at something. It doesn't take a genius to realize that "FCS Tier 6" probably averaged at or very near the bottom in most categories, '+' rankings and otherwise. However, my '+' rankings tend to show that, well, everybody's decent at something. So let's look at where "FCS Tier 6" ranked the highest.

#31: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#53: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#58: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#62: Offensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#67: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#72: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#77: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#80: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#81: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#85: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Now, the Q4 numbers are easy enough to understand--chances are, the other team's scrubs are in by that point. That might even explain the three Q2 categories. But the Defensive Line Yards phenomenon is rather interesting. Eight of the 10 categories have to do with rush defense in some way, and I don't completely have an explanation for that. In fact, let's just move on...

Key Players for SEMO

QB Houston Lillard

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's going to come from Lillard. He was a very impressive 27-39 for 387 yards and 3 TDs against SW Baptist last week and won the Ohio Valley's Offensive Player of the Week award, and even though that was against NAIA competition, that at least shows that he can throw, right? Of course, it would help if he had preseason All-OVC RB Timmy Holloman in the backfield with him, but Holloman was ruled ineligible for the first five games of '08. And backups Mike Jones and Jacob McKinley didn't exactly light SW Baptist ablaze.

WR Miles Edwards

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's probably going to be caught by Edwards, who had 204 yards and 2 TDs (including an 80-yarder) against SW Baptist. He was SEMO's leading WR last year too, with 480 yards and 7 TDs.

LB Jared Goodson

He's SEMO's most highly-touted defensive player, a preseason All-OVC selection, though he only had 3 assisted tackles against SW Baptist. So maybe I'll go with senior LB Nick Stauffer instead--he had 10 solo and 6 assisted tackles, plus a fumble recovery. Either way, I'll be honest--I expect nothing from him this week.

CB Eddie Calvin

The junior Rockwood Summit alum had a career day last week, registering 3 first-half INTs. Lord knows he'll get to find out just how good he really is this week. If he comes up with 3 more against Chase Daniel, he probably has a future in the NFL awaiting him.

Key Players for Mizzou

WR Jeremy Maclin

He needs to have a big play in the first quarter so they have no qualms about taking him out as soon as possible. I want to see lots of Jerrell Jackson, Michael Egnew and Wes Kemp.

QB Chase Patton

He needs to be 100% healthy so that we don't even think about tearing off Blaine Gabbert's redshirt.

CBs Castine Bridges, Kevin Rutland, Tremane Vaughns, Trey Hobson, and whoever else plays opposite Carl Gettis

This one should go without saying. Does Mizzou really have a weakness at #2 CB, or was the Illinois game a giant outlier? Somebody here needs to step up, and I guess it'll probably be Bridges.

Ss Justin Garrett and Del Howard (the return of Deltin Garward!)

I put Garrett on the spot last week, and his performance wasn't overly encouraging. If Garrett and/or Howard are the cause of another deep-ball breakdown this week, I'll officially become the fan of the Hardy Ricks Fan Club...and maybe the Zaviar Gooden Fan Club too.

Summary

Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt.

Missouri 59, SEMO 7*

(In these types of games, there's absolutely no idea to predict the score. Who knows when Pinkel will call off the dogs, and how many points the backups for both teams may score? Mizzou should end up with between 49-63 and SEMO 0-14. But all I know is...SEMO's really, really not good, and we may accidentally score 60.)

Bowl Game	Opponent
Tostitos Fiesta and/or BCS National Championship Game
AT&T Cotton	SEC
Valero Alamo	Pac-10
Insight	Big Ten
Pacific Life Holiday	Pac-10
Texas	Big Ten
New York Yankees	Big East

SB Nation - Trey Hobson

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Mizzou Links, 10-14-09

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Offense

2009

2009

2009

2009

2009

Draw

2009

Draw

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

Defense

1999

2009

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

2009

2009

Draw

2009

2009

Draw

The Opponents

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

2010

2011

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Secondary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou Links, 8-12-09

Mizzou 2009, Part Three: My Guys

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

Special Teams

Conclusion

A 2009 Walkthrough: Cornerbacks

Returnees

Redshirts

Incoming

Potential Incoming

2008 vs 2009

Who will start at CB opposite Carl Gettis in 2009?

Kevin Rutland

Trey Hobson

Munir Prince

Robert Steeples

Kip Edwards

other

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW