SB Nation - Jake Harry IV

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

RPT — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:30:08 -0000

Our Colorado cohorts at The Ralphie Report have once again solicited the powers that be in the Big 12 Blogosphere here at SB Nation to determine the SB Nation Preseason All-Big 12 Team. As Rock M Nation's representative in the voting process, here's how my ballot will appear. It must be noted that bloggers are NOT allowed to vote for players on teams they cover. As an aside, I must give a major shoutout to the SB Nation tech team, whose "Autotag" tool probably just imploded upon linking this post.

On to the ballot!

Quarterback (2)

Nominees: Jerrod Johnson (TAMU), Austen Arnaud (ISU), Taylor Potts (TTU), Sam Bradford (OU), Zac Robinson (OSU), Blaine Gabbert, Robert Griffin (BU), Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing (KU), Daniel Thomas (KSU)

The Vote: Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford

Notes: You can go around looking for ways to justify other picks, but it's going to be McCoy and Bradford at the top. I'm just glad we're selecting two quarterbacks so I don't have to decide between them and draw the ire of one of the fan bases. At the same time, you've got to feel for Reesing, Robinson and Griffin, dynamic players who'd be shoo-ins in a lot of other conferences.

Running Back (2)

Nominees: Roy Helu Jr. (NU), Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Christine Michael (TAMU), Chris Brown (OU), DeMarco Murray (OU), Kendall Hunter (OSU), Derrick Washington, Darrell Scott (CU), Rodney Stewart (CU), Jay Finley (BU), Jake Sharp (KU), Cody Johnson (UT), Vondrell McGee (UT), Foswhitt Whittaker (UT)

The Vote: Kendall Hunter, Chris Brown, DeMarco Murray

Notes: I went with the Oklahoma trio here. Kendall Hunter may well be the best back in the conference. Brown and Murray are a formidable 1-2 punch, assuming Murray is capable of staying healthy in 2009. Derrick Washington would have been my pick over one of these two had the blogger/player restrictions not been in place. I fought with including Roy Helu on the ballot. Helu came on hot at the end of 2008 (he averaged almost 10 yards a carry in a 157-yard day at Oklahoma) and could very well prove me wrong. Darrell Scott still has a lot to prove.

Fullback (1)

Nominees: Matt Clapp (OU), Jake Behrens (CU)

The Vote: Matt Clapp

Notes: I see no reason to unseat the reigning All-Big 12 fullback.

Wide Receiver (3)

Nominees: Ryan Tannehill (TAMU), Jeff Fuller (TAMU), Darius Darks (ISU), Detron Lewis (TTU), Edward Britton (TTU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, David Gettis (BU), Dezmon Briscoe (KU), Jordan Shipley (UT), Kerry Meier (KU), Brandon Banks (KSU), Jonathan Wilson (KU), Malcolm Williams (UT)

The Vote: Dez Bryant, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley

Notes: Bryant has the unenviable task of trying to replace Michael Crabtree as the conference's best receiver, even though some call Bryant "a superior receiver" to Crabtree. Briscoe continues to be undervalued by the conference as a whole, and Shipley -- one of the conference's most consistent producers over the last few seasons -- has seen his stock rise in the national eye since last year's Red River Shootout. Honorable mentions go out to Kerry Meier, Brandon Banks and Detron Lewis, and player to watch mentions go out to Jeff Fuller and Malcolm Williams.

Rest of the ballot after the jump!

Tight End (2)

Nominees: Mike McNeill (NU), Jamie McCoy (TAMU), Jermaine Gresham (OU), Andrew Jones, Riar Geer (CU), Patrick Devenny (CU), Tim Biere (KU)

The Vote: Jermaine Gresham and Mike McNeill

Notes: Gresham is the no-brainer with the first vote. I know we're supposed to scoff at Nebraska right now, but I feel like McNeill is the only Husker that's being underhyped. A tight end like that is a tremendous asset in the process of breaking in a new quarterback.

Offensive Line (5)

Nominees: Jacob Hickman (NU), Mike Smith (NU), Brandon Carter (TTU), Marlon Winn (TTU), Trent Williams (OU), Brady Bond (OSU), Russell Okung (OSU), Kurtis Gregory, Elvis Fisher, Dan Hoch, Tim Barnes, Nate Solder (CU), Ryan Miller (CU), Adam Ulatoski (UT), Chris Hall (UT), Nick Stringer (KSU), JD Walton (Baylor), James Barnard (BU), Charlie Tanner (UT), Jeremiah Hatch (KU), Kyle Hixx (UT)

The Vote: Brandon Carter, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Adam Ulatoski, Chris Hall

Notes: I'd be lying to you if I said I had hard and fast reasoning for selecting individual lineman. I do hope the other Big 12 bloggers give some love to Gregory and Barnes, who we've extolled here at RMN many times.

Interior D-Line (2)

Nominees: Ndamukong Suh (NU), Eddie Brown (Texas A&M), Colby Whitlock (Texas Tech), DeMarcus Granger (OU), Gerald McCoy (OU), Jaron Baston, Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU), Lamarr Houston (UT)

The Vote: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

Notes: Another relatively painless selection. Even a second team of any two of the trio of Granger, Fitzgerald and Houston would be extremely stout.

Defensive End (2)

Nominees: Pierre Allen (NU), Barry Turner (NU), Matt Featherston (TAMU), Jeremy Beal (OU), Auston English (OU), Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, Brandon Herald (KSU), Jake Laptad (KU), Sergio Kindle (UT)

The Vote: Sergio Kindle, Auston English

Notes: I know Jeremy Beal is getting most of the pundit love at DE for Oklahoma, but I remain a massive apologist for English when he's healthy. Maybe it's all just fallout from seeing English singlehandedly dominate Mizzou in person in Norman back in 2007. And, oh yeah, Sergio Kindle is a physical freak of nature.

Linebacker (4)

Nominees: Von Miller (TAMU), Brian Duncan (TTU), Marlon Williams (TTU), Keenan Clayton (OU), Travis Lewis (OU), Patrick Lavine (OSU), Sean Weatherspoon, Luke Lambert, Jeff Smart (CU), Shaun Mohler (CU), BJ Beatty (CU), Joe Pawelek (BU), Andre Sexton (OSU), Rod Muckelroy (UT)

The Vote: Joe Pawelek, Andre Sexton, Travis Lewis, Von Miller

Notes: Let's all take a moment to pour one out for Sean Weatherspoon, who is required to be left off my ballot. Pawelek enters what seems like his 37th year of eligibility at Baylor. Sexton and Lewis are relatively safe picks, while I take my one big departure from security and select A&M's Von Miller as my fourth 'backer. Miller is really more of a "project pick" here, as he's got the physical skills to be as good any other linebacker nominated if he's able to carve out his own role in Joe Kines' system. If it all comes together, Miller could turn into the type of player Kines had in Demeco Ryans at Alabama.

Cornerback (2)

Nominees: Leonard Johnson (ISU), Jamar Wall (TTU), Dominique Franks (OU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Carl Gettis, Jimmy Smith (CU), Cha'pelle Brown (CU), Josh Moore (KSU), Justin Thornton (KU), Daymond Patterson (KU), Chykie Brown (UT), Deon Beasley (UT)

The Vote: Dominique Franks, Josh Moore

Notes: A surprisingly solid list of nominees here. Franks was a second team All-Big 12 selection last year, and Moore quietly had a good year in the midst of a forgettable season for K-State. Brown would have been next on my radar, with Johnson, Wall, and Beasley close behind.

Safety (2)

Nominees: Larry Asante (NU), Trent Hunter (TAMU), Jordan Pugh (TAMU), Kenji Jackson, Jordan Lake (BU), Earl Thomas (UT), Blake Gideon (UT), Darrell Stuckey (KU), Phillip Strozier (KU)

The Vote: Jordan Lake, Darrell Stuckey

Notes: I'm probably drawing the wrath of the Burnt Orange Nation community by excluding two very talented young safeties in Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon, but Lake and Stuckey are certainly deserving of the nods here. Lake means to the Baylor defensive backfield what Pawelek means to Baylor's linebacking corps. Stuckey was ALL over the field at Arrowhead last year, and has to be the top safety in the Big 12 North (this despite my almost irrational love of Kenji Jackson).

Kicker (1)

Nominees: Alex Henery (NU), Hunter Lawrence (UT)

The Vote: Alex Henery

Notes: Hard to make the call here, but the cannon attached to Henery's hip gave Nebraska the win that COMPLETELY changed the outlook for the Huskers in 2009.

Punter (1)

Nominees: Mike Brandtner (ISU), Jake Harry, Derek Epperson (BU), Ryan Doerr (KSU), Alonzo Rojas (KU)

The Vote: Derek Epperson

Notes: Epperson is the returning leader in punt average, which is good enough for me. My apologies to Jake Harry.... THE FOURTH.

Kick Returner (1)

Nominees: Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Leonard Johnson (ISU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Jordan Shipley (UT)

The Vote: Perrish Cox

Notes: Cox and Bryant are somewhat interchangeable here, and since Bryant's already feeling the love, I decided to go with Cox. I would have had no qualms with Shipley in this slot either.

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Defense

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Defensive Line

Yeah, it didn't take me long to fall in love with Aldon Smith, who was the most disruptive, and vocal, defensive end I saw. He, Jacquies Smith, and God Coulter all pass the eyeball test and didn't really ever find themselves out of position. It was what I hoped to see, and I saw it. Plus, it's fun having two badass DEs (J. Smith, Coulter) wearing single digits. Don't ask me why.

I watched Brad Madison and Marcus Malbrough quite a bit, and at the very least they seemed competent, though they didn't make a lot of noise. The star of the line really was #85, A. Smith. He sacked Gabbert in the redzone and unleashed a primal yell that could be heard at the Med School.

As for the defensive tackles, I was quickly reminded of how good Jaron Baston can be. He's a fun combination of smart and crazy, and I really like him as the anchor of the line. The only other DT I noticed was Dominique Hamilton, who despite having 0 tackles made a couple of nice plays beyond the almost-INT (which I'm convinced he dropped just because he didn't want to have to run the 70-80 yards of open field that were in front of him had he held on). Terrell Resonno really didn't make any noise, but that's not always necessarily a bad thing from a DT, I guess.

Linebackers

I love this unit. A lot. Maybe not as much as rptgwb, but a lot. There's really nothing more to say about Sean Weatherspoon, so I won't say anything--you know what you're getting from him. Beyond that, though, Andrew Gachkar and Luke Lambert both looked excellent--both fast and smart--and you know how much we at RMN love us some Will Ebner, who may not even get much playing time this year due to how good GACK and Lambert look. This is a strong, punishing unit of LBs, and it will absolutely be a strength of this defense. This unit replicates the personality of its defensive coordinator.

Also, as rptgwb mentioned Saturday evening, Mizzou rarely went to a nickel package because GACK seemed more than capable of lining up against a TE or slot WR. If you can get away with base 4-3 in passing situations, you can disguise what you're doing a lot more. Says me, anyway.

Defensive Backs

I really wanted to see something good out of the DBs, and I think I got my wish. At cornerback, Carl Gettis did what he always seems to do (2008 KU and NW'ern games aside)--blend into the woodwork, do nothing to get noticed, and prevent the QB from even thinking about throwing to the guy he's covering. Meanwhile, both Kevin Rutland and Kip Edwards looked awesome. Loved what I saw from them. Trey Hobson looked decent, as well. I didn't really notice anything from Munir Prince or Robert Steeples.

At safety, yeah...if not for Gettis, Kenji Jackson would be getting most of my mancrush attention. Mizzou safeties like Jason Simpson, David Overstreet, and William Moore showed a trend of looking lost their freshman years, looking decent their sophomore years, and breaking through in their junior years (and, ahem, having disappointing senior seasons). Kenji already looks like a breakout junior, only he's a true sophomore. He deserves to wear #13, as he plays EXACTLY like Pig Brown, laying back and punishing anybody who offends him by thinking about catching a ball in his neighborhood.

Beyond Jackson, if there was one thing I was disappointed about in this scrimmage, it was that the offense never really tried to attack Hardy Ricks. You know from previous posts that I don't trust him at all, and I really wanted to see him being challenged. As it was, nothing really happened in his neighborhood. He didn't do anything wrong, persay, but he also only had 0.5 tackles. Jerrell Harrison, meanwhile, looked pretty decent, but nothing really happened in his area either. If anybody looked impressive beyond KJ13, it was Mr. Zaviar Gooden, who is as physically impressive as a safety will ever be. Dude can hit. Shawn Scott made the mistake of trying to bounce a run outside, and he was not only caught, but rudely and effortlessly thrown down by Gooden.

Special Teams

We witnessed the creation of a new RMN legend/nickname on Saturday. At halftime we learned Mizzou coaches don't call this unit "Special Teams," but "Special Forces." After joking about Grant Ressel spending his offseason sniping pirates in the ocean, we set about giving everybody in this unit official titles. And then ZouDave unleashed this stream of consciousness: "So does that mean Admiral Wolfert is being replaced by Sergeant Mills? Corporal Mills? General Mi...GENERAL MILLS!!! YES!!!!"

From this point forward, Tanner Mills will heretofore be called General Mills.

With that out of the way, I can confirm that General Mills does indeed have a freaking cannon for a leg. He boomed the first kickoff of the scrimmage about six yards deep in the endzone, and the kickoffs that didn't reach the endzone hung in the air a long time. That will be a special teams strength.

As for place-kicking, Mills and all the kickers were fine. Not great, not terrible, just fine. Mills was only 2-for-4, but the ball looks good coming off his foot, and while he may not be Jeff Wolfert, he won't be Joe Tantarelli either. (Sorry, Joey Tants.) The other two kickers--Gunnysergeant Trey Barrow and Corporal Ressel--looked fine too, with Ressel looking to have at least a smidge more leg strength.

To punting, where all I can say is, Captain Jake Harry looked like crap last spring too. He was, I guess, in mid-spring form on Saturday, and I'm just going to close my eyes and convince myself that when the games are real, he'll be ready. Moving on...

...to returns, where I can confirm (shocker) that none of the potential kicker returners are in fact Jeremy Maclin. Carl Gettis (punt) and Munir Prince (kickoff) both had trouble fielding the ball, and from what I've seen and read previously, it wouldn't surprise me if the September starters were Gahn McGaffie (punt) and Kip Edwards (kickoff). No idea on their return skills, as it was basically just kicker/punter vs returner out there.

(One of these years, a kicker will fulfill my wish and attempt an onside kick against air...and celebrate upon recovery. One of these days.)

Conclusion

I'll say this much for the 2009 Missouri defense: there will not be a harder-hitting unit in the Big 12 North. This was a strength of last year's defense, and with the addition of guys like Aldon Smith, Gachkar, Ebner, and a matured version of Kenji Jackson (plus guys like Gooden waiting in the wings), it's only going to become a more pronounced strength in 2009. This unit is high on attitude and personality (at one point, Jaron Baston was dancing to the music in his head late in Saturday's scrimmage, forever earning my affection), and hopefully it will be high on production as well.

You never know how smart or consistent a defense is going to be until they play against opponents they haven't been practicing against non-stop, but I'm optimistic that despite the lost starters, this defense will play to at least the level of last year's defense, and as you may remember, last year's defense may not have been as bad as you thought.

A 2009 Walkthrough: Special Teams

Bill C. — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:30:07 -0000

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Line
Defensive Ends
Defensive Tackles
Linebackers
Cornerbacks
Safeties

After a long weekend, it's time to wrap up this 2009 walkthrough with the special teams unit. Rarely has a special teams unit lost as much as Mizzou will lose in 2009: they have to replace quite possibly their best ever kicker, punt returner, and kick returner. Yikes. All that considered, maybe I'm not nearly pessimistic enough about this unit. There is at least some potential in the handful of replacements.

Kicker

Tanner Mills (6'2, 195, Senior)

From rptgwb during the Alamo Bowl pregame: “This just in: Tanner Mills has Josh Hamilton’s bat for a leg. Kid is CRUSHING practice FGs. Maybe life after Wolfert will be OK.”

Like most former goalies, Tanner Mills, a Rock Bridge product and former Columbia College keeper, has a cannon for a leg. He should easily handle kickoffs and PATs and give Mizzou some realistic hope of making any FG under 50 yards or so...but he is replacing the most accurate kicker in Mizzou history. The first time he misses a PAT or a chip-shot field goal will be the first time Mizzou has missed one of those since 2005. Yikes. No pressure.

That said, there is one area on which Mills can improve from Wolfert's standards: pressure kicks. In Mizzou's four losses in 2008, Wolfert was 3-for-8 on FGs. In their ten wins, 17-for-20. He missed two (one blocked) against Oklahoma State in a six-point loss. He missed one at the buzzer (blocked) against Kansas. He missed the potential game-winner against Northwestern. Now...don't mistake this for some sort of "I'm glad he's gone" sentiment--if Wolfert discovered some secret NCAA bylaw that allowed him another twelve years of eligibility because he was a diver or something, I'd do backflips in my living room. (Okay, I can't do backflips. But I'd pump my first.) Just saying that there's one area where Mills can make his presence felt in a good way.

Either way, considering what Mizzou is replacing, Mills seems like a pretty solid candidate. This isn't a "replacing Scotty Knickman with Brian Long and Alexander St. Peter in 1998" situation.

Trey Barrow (6'3, 175, RSFr)

If Mills somehow isn't the starting place-kicker in 2009, chances are Trey Barrow is. A redshirt freshman from Moberly, Barrow's got himself a pretty strong leg and at the very least seems like the likely starting PK in 2010.

Punter

Jake Harry (6'1, 190, Senior)

If you asked a Missouri fan in August what their biggest concern was for 2008, a large portion of them would have said punting. Harry was an unproven quantity, and it was cause for concern. Well...worry not. With Harry and a little help from Jeff Wolfert's righty rugby kicks, Mizzou's net punting improved from 31.5 yards in 2007 (#113 in the country) to 37.7 in 2008 (#16). Harry booted his way to a 40.7-yard average with an outstanding 10 of his 26 punts downed inside the opponent's 20. Just an outstanding, consistent effort from Harry in 2008. With an offense that probably punts more in 2009, Harry will be counted on even more.

Grant Ressel (6'1, 180, Sophomore)

Ressel got to punt once in 2008--in the SEMO blowout--and uncorked a lovely 43-yarder. With the rugby punt catching on (seriously, it became a solid weapon for quite a few teams in '08), it is quite possible that the righty (I think) Ressel takes over for Wolfert in the righty-lefty platoon when that sort of kick is deemed necessary.

And I love that punting is a platoon like right field now.

Kick Returner

De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, Sophomore)
Gahn McGaffie (5'11, 190, RSFr)
Robert Steeples (6'1, 190, RSFr)
Kip Edwards (6'1, 185, RSFr)
Munir Prince (5'10, 185, Junior)
Drew Temple (5'10, 190, RSFr)
La'Roderick Thomas (6'0, 195, Junior)

It's always possible that a true freshman like Kendial Lawrence or TJ Moe (or, you know, Sheldon Richardson, ahem) could enter the equation at one of the return positions here, but we'll just focus on the returnees and redshirts.

One thing Mizzou's got in the return game: options. There's simply no way anybody can replace a guy like Jeremy Maclin, not only for the threat that he represented, but also for the number of times opponents decided a chip-shot kick to an up man at the 35 was a better option. Opponents will not be handing Mizzou field position like that again, so whoever wins this job will be given plenty of opportunities to prove himself. And while I won't expect any KR TD's in 2009, I do expect competence among such a big group of candidates.

My early favorites: Moore and McGaffie. For all intents and purposes, Moore is basically a slightly faster Marcus Woods, while McGaffie is a bit of an unknown. I'm not sure how fast McGaffie is, but he is reportedly quite quick, which at the very least makes him a favorite of mine at punt returner.

Moore and McGaffie aside, look out for any one of the handful of super-fast defensive back redshirts--Steeples, Edwards, Prince. I don't know enough about any one of them to project who'd be best at this job, but again...it's nice to have options.

This may also be a case where it's nice having a new Temple in the backfield.

And I would pay money to see Sheldon Richardson as at least an up man.

Punt Returner

De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, Sophomoe)
Gahn McGaffie (5'11, 190, RSFr)
Jared Perry (6'1, 180, Senior)

While I don't see Perry winning the KR job, he could be a reliable candidate at PR.

2008 vs 2009

I almost don't want to compare 2008 to 2009. Wolfert may not have been tremendously clutch, but he was still as good as a Mizzou kicker has ever been. Maclin may have been neutralized for most of 2008 by not getting any opportunities to return kicks, but he was still the most dangerous return man Mizzou has ever had. It's not fair to hold Tanner Mills and guys like Moore and McGaffie to the standard of their predecessors--instead, we should see what skills they do have and how they can be used to help this team. Mills has a cannon, though it's unclear how accurate that cannon is. Meanwhile, there are a lot of speedy, quick candidates at the KR/PR positions, and they could give Mizzou solid field position (as long as they hold onto the ball). Oh yeah, and Jake Harry rules. So we've got THAT going for us.

Poll

Who will be returning kickoffs for Mizzou in 2009?

De'Vion Moore

21 votes

Gahn McGaffie

24 votes

Robert Steeples

3 votes

Kip Edwards

0 votes

Munir Prince

9 votes

Drew Temple

8 votes

La'Roderick Thomas

2 votes

other

7 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

RPT — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:51:00 -0000

Disclaimer: Rather than the typical bullet point analysis, this post will be a long and meandering string of thoughts I forced into prose. Hang with me here as I give you a summation of my thoughts from four rows up in the Alamodome end zone.

Having been what appears to be one of the select few of RMN regulars who made it down to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, there's not much that hasn't been said here that I can add. More than anything, for as disappointing as the season was, it seemed like a season of moderate disappointment was bookended in similar fashion. Missouri began the season with a shootout with a Big Ten team that was fueled by a Maclin return in the first half and Sean Weatherspoon's dominance in the second half. Substitute "shootout" with "slugfest," and you have the exact recipe of Mizzou's Alamo Bowl victory.

Before I delve too deeply into Missouri's end of the equation, I first want to send some love the way of Evanston, Ill. As the 2008 campaign progressed, I was highly enamored with the coaching jobs done by the men in charge of two of Missouri's opponents: Buffalo's Turner Gill and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. You can now add Pat Fitzgerald to that list. I've always loved his fire, but after last night, I now respect the man's ability. It should have come as no surprise to me how disciplined NU was defensively and how solid the unit was in pursuit and in wrapping up ballcarriers.

Secondly, I think this game swings far more in favor of Missouri had Tyrell Sutton not been able to go. Before the game, it was clear from highlights that Sutton added a different dynamic to the NU offense, one I asked Lake the Posts to try and quantify last Thursday. Between outstanding balance, great hands (despite one being in a cast), a never-ending motor, and some quick burst, Sutton proved himself as the perfect scat back for NU's style of offense.

The atmosphere at the game seemed very reflective of the attitudes of each school entering the game. The Northwestern players and fans looked absolutely thrilled to be in San Antonio, while the Missouri players and fans looked somewhat determined to redefine the word "complacency." The warmups seemed uninspired, the drills seemed rusty. As ghtd36 passed on in the game thread, the team found motivation from the one man we knew we could count on to try to light a fire: Tommy Saunders (love that kid).

More rambling after the jump.

Needless to say, when the game finally kicked off, Mizzou still didn't seem ready to play. No disrespect to NU, but between penalties and dumb mistakes, Mizzou was beating Mizzou. It took a football team as talented and as sound as Northwestern to make Mizzou pay for its mistakes, but for the majority of the game, the Tigers did not play like a team that deserved to win, much less like Big 12 North champions or a team that began the season with BCS aspirations.

As far as players on the field are concerned, that all began with Chase Daniel's play in the final game of his illustrious Missouri career. I couldn't believe it was happening, but in the second half, Daniel found himself being booed by the Missouri fans after another missed deep ball. What was more unbelievable, though, was that I understood the booing, and semi-agreed. As I look back, Daniel is a victim of his own expectation. When we come to expect excellence, then "pretty good" looks lackluster. When we expect at least "pretty good," an average effort by most QBs standards looks downright pedestrian. And that's exactly what Daniel looked like last night - pedestrian. What made Daniel great in 2007 was his decision making and his ability to always find an open receiver. In 2008, Daniel trusted his arm at the expense of his head. The third INT was a perfect example. Daniel thinks he sees blitz, predetermines a receiver, and one throw later, Mizzou is in trouble.

As for Jeremy Maclin, what can be said that already hasn't? When the game ended, J-Mac smiled as he walked in front of Missouri fans collectively chanting "One more year!" I found myself chanting along, but in my heart, a large part of me wants to see him go to the next level. No. 9 has done wonders for this university in only two years, and his service will continue if he represents the Mizzou football program in a positive manner in the NFL at the level projected for him by NFL scouts.

The same goes for Coffman, minus the questions about his return. I don't need to expound upon the love the Flying Nunchuk gets around these parts, but I'm not sure I'll ever see a set of hands like No. 45's in a Mizzou uniform again, and that's no slight to future Tigers. Watching him in person has been a privilege I'm not sure I can accurately convey with words.

Defensively, a couple of downfield breakdowns aside, we were able to see the kind of individual talent on this defense that was so highly touted before the season and so highly criticized as it progressed. I'm not sure how others have graded them out, but from field level, the D-Line looked absolutely incredible. Stryker Sulak had the type of game you come to expect from Stryker Sulak (including his second straight bowl game Superman). Jaron Baston commanded special attention inside. The numbers may not reflect it, but Ziggy Hood was dominant inside, as the NU guards had no answer for Z's quickness (causing the back-to-back holding penalties in NU's red zone). Brian Coulter showed good burst when he decided to line up on the correct side of the neutral zone, and Jacquies Smith continues to show an uncanny ability to get upfield every play, a huge asset on passing downs but a bit of a concern on rushing plays and screens.

The linebacking corps displayed why it was the backbone of this defense all year, as Sean Weatherspoon was unequivocally the most dominant player on the field Monday. Run stopping? Spoon. Pass coverage? Spoon. Pursuit? Spoon. Wrapping up? Spoon. Holding teammates accountable? Spoon. Firing teammates up? Spoon. But for all of the love we feed Spoon, Brock Christopher has been very much a forgotten man among common Missouri fans. Christopher's knack for timely turnovers (against Baylor and all opponents named "NU") hopefully draws attention to his nose for the football. While I have no doubt that Missouri has an excess of linebackers who can fly (Gachkar, Ebner, etc.), I'm slightly scared to see if Missouri has anyone capable of filling Brock's shoes of a linebacker who can break down and maintain leverage inside, particularly against the run.

Yet, watching the defensive backfield was like watching a bad rerun. Carl Gettis couldn't have picked a much worse time for the worst game of his career (after RMN has vehemently defended him). Justin Garrett was once again either the victim or the perpetrator of a miscommunication on a deep touchdown pass. Kenji Jackson continues to be the in the right place at the right time, but if there were Heismans for almost making plays, KJ would have to at least get an invite to the ceremony. He couldn't have been more than 6 inches from a pick on NU's last TD pass, and he was one NU bobble from another interception earlier in the game.

The most tragic of the defensive back field analyses though is that of one William Moore. What could have been if Willy Mo was healthy and properly used? We've beaten the horse to death, but why put your best ballhawking, centerfield safety and play him at the line of scrimmage all game long? Just because it allows to disguise his blitzing patterns, or are you that concerned with covering the slot? 2007 Willy Mo was a fantastic safety. Injuries and Matt Eberflus reduced 2008 Willy Mo to an above-average nickelback.

Hidden in the passion of victory but supported by The Boy in his recent BTBS post was the play of Jake Harry. Remember when punting was our biggest concern this offseason? The decision to rugby punt in the OSU game and throughout the season was, I thought, one of the better moves of the year, and it paid off handsomely in the Alamo Bowl. Then there's the story of Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned best kicker in NCAA history turned potential goat. What a storyline, and what a finish at a result.

You add it all together, and it made for a drama none of us would have or could have predicted five months ago. And when you think about the 2008 season, I'm not sure it would have been appropriate to end any other way.

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:00:07 -0000

We were out of sorts all game, Chase Daniel's never played worse, we were falling down in pass coverage, we couldn't run the ball, our "most accurate kicker of all-time" missed a game-ending FG, we were a step behind in our play-calling for much of the game...and we won our 10th game of the season. How in the hell did this happen??

Missouri (30)		NW'ern (23)
	% Close = 100.0%
63.2%	Field Position %	36.8%
70.3%	Leverage %	69.9%

	TOTAL
74	Plays	83
18.55	EqPts	22.09
41.9%	Success Rate	41.0%
0.25	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.27
0.670	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.676

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
4.45	EqPts	4.06
34.5%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.15	PPP	0.12
0.498	S&P	0.516
3.00	Line Yards/carry	3.03

	PASSING
14.10	EqPts	18.03
46.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.31	PPP	0.38
0.780	S&P	0.792
2.2%	Sack Rate	10.4%

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
48.1%	Success Rate	43.1%
0.25	PPP	0.28
0.726	S&P	0.708
3.1%	Sack Rate	3.2%
38.5%	Run Rate	46.6%

	PASSING DOWNS
27.3%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.26	PPP	0.24
0.536	S&P	0.600
0.0%	Sack Rate	23.5%
40.9%	Run Rate	32.0%

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	1
5.79	Points Lost	1.84
7.70	Points Given	3.33
13.49	Total T/O Pts	5.17
-8.32	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.32

0.678	Q1 S&P	0.868
0.721	Q2 S&P	0.603
0.729	Q3 S&P	0.991
0.607	Q4/Q5 S&P	0.377

0.509	1st Down S&P	0.678
0.670	2nd Down S&P	0.587
0.971	3rd/4th Down S&P	0.790

0.410	In own red zone	0.515
0.723	25 to 25	0.839
0.600	In opp. red zone	0.491

Thoughts after the jump...

Taking EqPts and Turnover Points into account, Northwestern should have won this game by about 12 points. But two things won this game for Missouri:

1) Total Missouri plays inside own red zone (which I define as inside the 25 instead of inside the 20): 4. Total Northwestern plays inside own red zone: 30. Alamo Bowl Co-MVP: Jake Harry.

2) Northwestern's Q4/Q5 S&P: 0.377. In their last 23 plays, NW'ern gained 40 yards. Just an outstanding performance by the defense down the stretch. And really, aside from two major breakdowns--Willy Mo stumbling around like a drunk on the first TD and either Carl Gettis getting roasted or Gettis and Justin Garrett not being on the same page on what coverage was being run (again) on NW'ern's Q3 go-ahead TD--the defense was good all game, believe it or not.
Look at that sack rate! For the first time all season, the blitz worked, and it ended up winning the game for Mizzou. I don't know if they attempted different things, or if the same things just worked this time, but kudos to Matt Eberflus for figuring something out after a rough year of play-calling.
Whereas NU's 11-for-21 performance on third downs kept them into the game to a degree (0.790 S&P on 3rd/4th downs), it was Mizzou's third-down performance (0.971) that made the difference. They faced longer third downs more often, but still converted a high rate. And in a game in which they seemingly had no hope for a big play, they had to work the dink-and-dunk routine themselves, and they did just that.
Kudos to NW'ern for shutting down Derrick Washington. I predicted that NW'ern wouldn't do much on the ground, and I was right...but I thought D-Wash would eventually start finding some holes, and I was very much incorrect. Overall, the rushing game was a wash for both teams.
Passing...eesh. Really, Mizzou's 46.7% success rate isn't too shabby (though it's well below their season average). The big thing here was Point Per Play--Mizzou had no hope of a big play in the passing game all night. Power to NW'ern to that, though Chase Daniel's suddenly erratic arm had plenty to do with that too. NW'ern seemed to have the deep routes covered for the most part, and the two times they didn't (on a bomb to Jared Perry and an intermediate sideline pass to Tommy Saunders), Daniel was well off-target.
The other part to Mizzou's lack of PPP was NW'ern's lockdown tackling. I can't think of more than just a couple of plays where Mizzou ended up getting decent YAC yardage.
From last week's BTBS Preview:
Check out the Passing Downs run rates. NU has a game-plan decision to make. Mizzou is piss poor defending Passing Downs, and opponents know it--they run the ball a minuscule 23.5% of the time in those situations. NU, however, plays things conservatively, running the ball 38.9% of the time. Do they stick to their conservative tendencies, or do they open things up knowing that Mizzou has more breakdowns than a lot of other defenses?
Final verdict: NW'ern ran the ball 32% of the time on Passing Downs--almost directly between the 23.5% and 38.9% averages.
Also from last week:
No offense in the country is better than Missouri on Non-Passing Downs. They are both efficient and explosive. If NU is going to win in San Antonio, they must figure out a way to leverage Mizzou into Passing Downs
Verdict: Mizzou's success rate was decent on NPD's, but the PPP was horrendous. Seriously...how did Mizzou win this game?

Let's take a look back at what I called the keys to the game...

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

Touchdowns, not field goals. NW'ern really needed to score TDs in the red zone to keep up with Mizzou (in theory). How'd they do? Three trips to the red zone (including the OT possession), 10 points. Fail.
Dink and dunk, dink and dunk. NW'ern was very successful on-and-off with the dink-dunk strategy. The only problem was, thanks to the leg of Jake Harry, NU had to drive the full length of the field more often than not. It's one thing to dink-and-dunk consistently for 50 yards. For 90 yards? Far too difficult. We'll say this was half-success, half-fail.
Confuse Chase Daniel. SUCCESS. Chase was every bit as discombobulated as he was against Oklahoma State...moreso, really.

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Bring it. Consider this one a giant fail. They were not sharp early, and they allowed NW'ern to completely dictate the tempo of the first half. When they started playing marginally better in the third quarter, they had absolutely no margin for error, and they let NU regain the lead. But...they won, so I guess it's not a giant fail. Just a fail.
Don't miss tackles. Carl Gettis whiffed on a tackle in Q2, and it turned into a huge gain, but otherwise Mizzou wasn't too bad here. Tyrell Sutton is very tough to bring down with just one guy--the dude's got the lowest center of gravity I've ever seen...he practically runs with one hand on the ground at all times. It usually took a couple of Tigers to bring him down, but they never let him bust a long one, other than the infamous "BOO HOORAY BOO" play in the first quarter (the 40-yard screen pass on third down that ended in a fumble...only to be called back due to offsides), but that one didn't count.
Stomp the Throat. Mizzou had the dagger in their hands three times. The first time, they were up 17-16 after Brock Christopher's interception, and they went three-and-out and managed only a field goal to go up 20-16 (a lead quickly wiped out by a NW'ern scoring drive). The second time, Jeff "Most Accurate Kicker in FBS History" Wolfert pushed the game-ending FG wide right. The third time, they made it count in OT. Better late than never, but it's best not to let underdogs hang around.

In the end, though, Mizzou's playmakers made plays when they had to--Maclin's punt return, 'Spoon's overall ridiculousness, Willy Mo making the big play on his last two plays in a Tiger uniform, Chase Coffman making a couple catches he had no business making, Jeff Wolfert nailing three FGs, Stryker Sulak coming up with a couple huge sacks--, and they won the game, even if they did miss the throat a couple times.

Summary

Illinois
SEMO
Nevada
Buffalo
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Texas
Colorado
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
~~Oklahoma~~

It's been a fun BTBS season. I've taken these numbers to Football Outsiders, and they're starting to grow into something pretty cool. I hope more people understand them and use them to supplement what they see with their eyes. In the comments section below, feel free to let me know what suggestions you have to make this BTBS piece better and more useful (other than maybe a permanent link to the BTBS glossary somewhere...I keep meaning to do that...).

Anyway, despite the disappointment involved in a couple of unforeseen losses, this really was a fun season overall, and it doesn't take a BTBS post to figure that out. Chase Coffman's nunchuk thrusts...Jeremy Maclin starting and ending the season by becoming the Human Momentum Swing on neutral fields...Sean Weatherspoon starting and ending the season by refusing to let the Mizzou defense crumble...Chase Daniel completing 20 consecutive passes against Buffalo...absolutely destroying Nebraska in every way, shape and form, and in Lincoln to boot...clobbering and embarrassing Colorado...winning a second straight North title...in the end, not quite as many amazing moments as in 2007, but we've been getting spoiled. I hope to be analyzing a lot more wins than losses once more in 2009...

Poll

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

27 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

46 votes

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

3 votes

Why choose? All of the above!

22 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:00:05 -0000

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)		Iowa St. (20)
	% Close = 35.5%
46.6%	Field Position %	53.4%
76.6%	Leverage %	67.5%

	TOTAL
64	Plays	77
37.04	EqPts	25.81
62.5%	Success Rate	45.5%
0.58	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.34
1.204	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.790

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
36	Plays	14
16.52	EqPts	2.94
52.8%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.46	PPP	0.21
0.987	S&P	0.567

	RUSHING
15.57	EqPts	4.46
65.2%	Success Rate	39.1%
0.68	PPP	0.19
1.329	S&P	0.585
2.90	Line Yards/carry	3.06

	PASSING
21.47	EqPts	21.34
61.0%	Success Rate	48.2%
0.52	PPP	0.40
1.133	S&P	0.877

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3%	Success Rate	46.2%
0.63	PPP	0.24
1.264	S&P	0.706

	PASSING DOWNS
60.0%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.41	PPP	0.52
1.008	S&P	0.963

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
6.39	Points Lost	6.06
1.82	Points Given	8.31
8.21	Total T/O Pts	14.37
+6.16	Turnover Pts Margin	-6.16

0.915	Q1 S&P	0.839
1.245	Q2 S&P	0.704
1.251	Q3 S&P	0.766
1.645	Q4 S&P	0.896

0.787	1st Down S&P	0.649
1.281	2nd Down S&P	1.024
2.265	3rd Down S&P	0.840

The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge. Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones. Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark. Good to see. We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

And now, a review of last week's "key players"...

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Despite a nice 38-yard run in the 3rd quarter, Robinson was a non-factor. He touched the ball 15 times and managed just a 27% success rate and 0.459 S&P. Mizzou was on him immediately every time he touched the ball.

WR RJ Sumrall

Six catches, 24 yards, 1.10 EqPts. Awful. The Carl Gettis Treatment strikes again.

I should mention, though, just how effective Iowa State's tight ends were in this game. Derrick Catlett and Collin Franklin combined for 8 catches and 8.08 EqPts in sustaining what was a pretty decent ISU passing attack, at least after the score was within a comfortable arm's length for Missouri.

LB Fred Garrin

Garrin had, by all means, a decent game, with 6.5 tackles and 1 TFL. But he was needed in the turnover game, and came up empty there. I also mentioned Leonard Johnson as the other potential turnover candidate, and he came through with a fumble recovery and an INT that was called back due to a roughing penalty. He was solid all game, but it obviously wasn't nearly enough.

P Mike Brandtner

The fact that Brandtner punted only once should have been an encouraging thing for ISU, but the two turnovers and three failed fourth-down conversions killed ISU.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

Professor Chaos returned to his "automatic on third downs" ways Saturday. Mizzou was iffy on first downs all night, but 8-for-10 on third downs will win you a lot of games, as will completing your first 16 passes of the night. Chase found a reliable target in Andrew Jones, and after struggling a bit without Chase Coffman against KSU, the Mizzou offense was clicking on all cylinders. That's the upside about injuries to key players--as long as they're not season-long, and as long as they don't cost you in big games (as Coffman's injury did in the Big 12 title game last year), they get other guys some big minutes...and when the injured guy comes back, you've got even more weapons at your disposal.

RB Derrick Washington

He didn't come close to the 20 touches I requested, but in only 13 touches, he managed 151 yards and 2 TDs and led Mizzou with 11.52 EqPts. Efficiency, explosiveness, et cetera. Aside from the fumble he almost lost, this was a darn near perfect game from D-Wash.

FS William Moore

BINGO. Keep calling Willy Mo out, and eventually he'll come through with a big game. Four tackles, some hard hitting...oh yeah, and his fourth career pick six, one that basically put the game out of reach midway through the second quarter.

P Jake Harry

Jake Harry? Who the hell is Jake Harry?

MU-ISU Summary

North Champions once again. To quote our esteemed coach, "That's awesome." In all, this has worked out pretty nicely for Mizzou. The North title was clinched pretty easily, nobody else got hurt, Chase Coffman has a bye week to get healthy, and in theory Mizzou should head into Arrowhead with a clear head and healthy bodies, ready to culminate Hate Week(s) with a comfortable victory over a to-date lesser team. That's awesome.

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)		Kansas (7)
	% Close = 66.7%
52.9%	Field Position %	47.1%
70.0%	Leverage %	68.9%

	TOTAL
70	Plays	74
29.90	EqPts	13.88
47.1%	Success Rate	40.5%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.19
0.899	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.593

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	37
22.58	EqPts	4.39
44.1%	Success Rate	37.8%
0.38	PPP	0.12
0.823	S&P	0.497

	RUSHING
12.25	EqPts	3.42
40.0%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.35	PPP	0.17
0.750	S&P	0.671
2.63	Line Yards/carry	3.02

	PASSING
17.65	EqPts	10.46
54.3%	Success Rate	37.0%
0.50	PPP	0.19
1.047	S&P	0.564

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
51.0%	Success Rate	39.2%
0.35	PPP	0.11
0.857	S&P	0.507

	PASSING DOWNS
38.1%	Success Rate	43.5%
0.62	PPP	0.35
0.997	S&P	0.784

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
1.84	Points Lost	3.12
2.29	Points Given	5.70
4.13	Total T/O Pts	8.82
+4.69	Turnover Pts Margin	-4.69

0.841	Q1 S&P	0.538
0.627	Q2 S&P	0.454
1.191	Q3 S&P	0.688
0.870	Q4 S&P	0.647

0.864	1st Down S&P	0.585
1.023	2nd Down S&P	0.679
0.789	3rd Down S&P	0.544

UT's offense really wasn't clicking during this game, third quarter aside. However, despite the limitations of a less-than-100% healthy Brian Orakpo, the Texas defense had KU disheveled and discombobulated all morning and afternoon. Dezmon Briscoe's acrobatic catch aside, KU had no semblance of a downfield threat against UT's speed, and it made the difference in the game.
And despite decent blocking up front, KU's RBs just didn't have enough speed to get by UT's front seven.
A 0.507 S&P is pretty bad on Passing Downs. That was KU's performance on Non-Passing Downs. That's horrendous. And it negates what was actually a decent performance by KU on Passing Downs (0.784).
Meanwhile, Texas continues to lead the country in Passing Downs success. For the season, they're actually averaging a higher S&P on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs. They're the only team in the country who can say that, though that disproportionality was one of the things that bit them in the behind against Texas Tech.

Nebraska (56)		K-State (28)
	% Close = 58.1%
86.4%	Field Position %	13.6%
78.2%	Leverage %	63.8%

	TOTAL
78	Plays	58
46.85	EqPts	14.73
57.7%	Success Rate	27.6%
0.60	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.25
1.178	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.530

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
56	Plays	23
36.65	EqPts	5.87
60.7%	Success Rate	21.7%
0.65	PPP	0.26
1.262	S&P	0.473

	RUSHING
31.29	EqPts	5.28
59.6%	Success Rate	32.1%
0.60	PPP	0.19
1.198	S&P	0.510
3.60	Line Yards/carry	2.94

	PASSING
15.56	EqPts	9.45
53.9%	Success Rate	23.3%
0.60	PPP	0.32
1.137	S&P	0.548

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
62.3%	Success Rate	27.0%
0.54	PPP	0.21
1.168	S&P	0.481

	PASSING DOWNS
41.2%	Success Rate	28.6%
0.80	PPP	0.33
1.213	S&P	0.616

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	1
6.56	Points Lost	1.23
7.99	Points Given	3.33
14.55	Total T/O Pts	4.56
-9.99	Turnover Pts Margin	+9.99

1.262	Q1 S&P	0.347
1.124	Q2 S&P	0.619
0.932	Q3 S&P	0.947
1.355	Q4 S&P	0.214

0.950	1st Down S&P	0.559
1.322	2nd Down S&P	0.472
1.250	3rd Down S&P	0.514

Nebraska is the winner of the Most Dominant Performance of the Week competition, though playing K-State should probably disqualify you from the contest at this point.
How did this game stay within two possessions for 58% of the time despite NU's complete domination? Try a pick six early and a kick return TD late.
The three-headed Nebraska rushing attack has picked up steam in recent weeks, albeit against less than stellar rush defenses (OU game aside). Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille and Marlon Lucky have all had their moments, and at this point I'm going to say that Helu is the #2 RB in the North next year (behind our man D-Wash, of course).
Know how I said KU's 0.507 S&P on Non-Passing Downs was horrible? KSU's was 0.481.
If Ron Prince wanted to give his team the best chance to win, he'd have to seriously think about a QB platoon between a grayshirt (Carson Coffman) and the guy who was picked by some to be a 2009 1st Round draft pick (Josh Freeman). Just sayin'.
Just think where this game could have been if KSU hadn't won the turnover battle by 10 points!

OSU (30)		Colorado (17)
	% Close = 82.4%
53.7%	Field Position %	46.3%
76.2%	Leverage %	57.5%

	TOTAL
63	Plays	73
29.04	EqPts	17.04
49.2%	Success Rate	34.3%
0.46	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.953	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.576

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	53
28.97	EqPts	9.02
52.5%	Success Rate	35.9%
0.49	PPP	0.17
1.016	S&P	0.529

	RUSHING
17.12	EqPts	8.19
42.5%	Success Rate	42.4%
0.43	PPP	0.25
0.853	S&P	0.672
3.12	Line Yards/carry	2.58

	PASSING
11.92	EqPts	8.85
60.9%	Success Rate	27.5%
0.52	PPP	0.22
1.127	S&P	0.496

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.9%	Success Rate	38.1%
0.40	PPP	0.23
0.875	S&P	0.607

	PASSING DOWNS
53.3%	Success Rate	29.0%
0.67	PPP	0.24
1.201	S&P	0.534

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
1.23	Points Lost	1.63
4.13	Points Given	2.38
5.36	Total T/O Pts	4.01
-1.35	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.35

0.944	Q1 S&P	0.438
1.219	Q2 S&P	0.661
1.429	Q3 S&P	0.653
0.497	Q4 S&P	0.501

1.111	1st Down S&P	0.499
0.641	2nd Down S&P	0.593
0.987	3rd Down S&P	0.280

Really a ho-hum game here. OSU was never threatened by CU's offense, and their own offense made plays when it had to...and yet OSU only won by 13. OSU's rushing performance was a little below standard for them, but overall the 'Pokes won just about every category.
As far as I can tell, one of the things that kept CU as close as they were was a near-even field position battle. OSU was content to run the ball (40 rushes, just 23 passes) and grind out the win, and CU was able to pin them just far enough back that every drive didn't end up in FG range.

ATM (21)		Baylor (41)
	% Close = 54.0%
35.3%	Field Position %	64.7%
78.4%	Leverage %	72.0%

	TOTAL
51	Plays	75
19.98	EqPts	33.80
45.1%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.39	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.45
0.843	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.891

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
26	Plays	42
7.83	EqPts	21.69
42.3%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.30	PPP	0.52
0.724	S&P	0.969

	RUSHING
4.69	EqPts	17.84
47.4%	Success Rate	42.3%
0.25	PPP	0.34
0.721	S&P	0.766
3.22	Line Yards/carry	2.43

	PASSING
15.29	EqPts	15.96
43.8%	Success Rate	47.8%
0.48	PPP	0.69
0.915	S&P	1.172

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.40	PPP	0.35
0.873	S&P	0.777

	PASSING DOWNS
36.4%	Success Rate	47.6%
0.37	PPP	0.71
0.732	S&P	1.184

	TURNOVERS
5	Number	0
11.65	Points Lost	0.00
11.18	Points Given	0.00
22.83	Total T/O Pts	0.00
-22.83	*Turnover Pts Margin*	+22.83

0.666	Q1 S&P	0.700
0.767	Q2 S&P	1.015
0.669	Q3 S&P	1.162
1.288	Q4 S&P	0.601

1.035	1st Down S&P	0.671
0.594	2nd Down S&P	0.776
0.462	3rd Down S&P	1.374

ATM is so lucky that the final score didn't end up much worse. And it was much worse...BU was up 41-7 when they took their foots of the gas in the fourth quarter. Repeat: Baylor was up 41-7. In a conference game.
Really, Baylor walked a fine line here--they were far from dominant in Non-Passing Downs situations...but they were as good as they've ever been on Passing Downs, and ATM's failure there doomed them.
Whereas Baylor got better on each progressive down, ATM got worse, and it forced them into situations with higher probabilities of turnovers.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

15 votes

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

20 votes

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

9 votes

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

3 votes

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

17 votes

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

5 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:00:08 -0000

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
55.3%		% Close	73.9%
56.3%	43.7%	Field Position %	53.0%	47.0%
79.7%	67.8%	Leverage %	64.3%	71.3%

		Total
669	749	Plays	698	668
355.37	239.77	EqPts	227.72	306.33
56.3%	41.8%	Success Rate	41.3%	49.0%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.46
1.094	0.738	S&P	0.739	0.948

		Close Games
417	367	Plays	495	514
212.27	116.90	EqPts	164.87	231.79
58.0%	43.1%	Success Rate	40.6%	47.9%
0.51	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.089	0.749	S&P	0.739	0.930

		Rushing
74.85	86.99	EqPts	74.76	126.61
53.3%	40.7%	Success Rate	39.4%	47.4%
0.45	0.26	PPP	0.31	0.36
0.987	0.664	S&P	0.706	0.834
3.15	2.71	Line Yds/carry	2.73	3.24

		Passing
225.38	152.78	EqPts	123.74	179.72
60.2%	42.7%	Success Rate	41.9%	50.6%
0.56	0.37	PPP	0.36	0.57
1.163	0.799	S&P	0.778	1.075
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	4.3%	4.7%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.4%	47.2%	Success Rate	48.3%	53.2%
0.54	0.33	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.152	0.803	S&P	0.812	0.986
1.4%	4.7%	Sack Rate	4.0%	3.2%
48.0%	53.9%	Run Rate	57.0%	60.5%

		Passing Downs
40.0%	30.3%	Success Rate	26.8%	38.5%
0.41	0.30	PPP	0.36	0.47
0.814	0.602	S&P	0.632	0.855
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	4.6%	7.0%
24.2%	27.0%	Run Rate	31.4%	33.3%

		Turnovers
15	17	Total	17	24
41.72	39.57	Points Lost	42.73	61.30
32.41	63.42	Points Given	39.47	63.66
74.13	102.99	Total T/O Pts	82.20	124.96
+28.86	-28.86	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+42.76	-42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

One specific way ISU stays in this game and/or pulls it out: turnovers. Missouri has been more careless with the ball than usual over the last two games, and Gene Chizik's defense has actually been pretty strong at forcing turnovers. ISU has an all-or-nothing defense--they either make a big play or give up a big play (more of the latter than the former)--but that can still make your life uneasy in bad weather. In 2006, Missouri was a few plays away from breaking the game wide open in the first quarter until Tony Temple fumbled. That gave ISU's offense a breather until they could get that damn fullback Ryan Kock rolling, and we know what happened after that. Turnovers = the only way ISU can win this game.
Austen Arnaud actually does a pretty decent job of both getting rid of the ball quickly (low sack rate, even on Passing Downs) and not panicking and throwing bad INTs (only 6 picks in 302 passes). They trust him in this regard, as they actually throw quite a bit in Passing Down situations--they don't take the easy way out (a la Colorado) and run 40% of the time in Passing Downs. He's a mature presence in the pocket...he's just not all that good a presence in the pocket. He's not all that accurate, and his receivers aren't big-play threats (plus, even though he's decent in Passing Downs, the ISU offense still faces far too many Passing Downs), but ISU's offense won't beat itself. It's capable of dinking and dunking all the way down the field if you don't make a play.
Alexander Robinson has played well as of late, and considering how well he played last time he faced Mizzou, I'd actually expect a decent day out of him. He's much quicker than 19th-year senior Jason Scales, and he's ISU's biggest big-play threat.
In the turnover figures and the decent Passing Downs success rate, you can see hints of the aggressive defense Gene Chizik wants to play. But the personnel is simply not there. Junior Jesse Smith is a solid MLB (the least important position on the field for facing Missouri), DEs Christopher Lyle and Kurtis Taylor are solid pass rushers (they've combined for a respectable 9 sacks), WLB Fred Garrin is a nice playmaker (5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 pass breakups), and Leonard Johnson (2 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 TFL, 3 pass breakups, 40 tackles) is a potentially great freshman CB. But none of these guys are rock-solid on every play--just occasionally--and that still leaves six positions on defense that aren't all that hot.
On Non-Passing Downs, basically every team Iowa State plays turns into the Missouri offense. A 53% success rate and 0.986 S&P are simply waaaaay too high. If he gets the carries (and if the weather's bad, he might), Derrick Washington could have a huge day.
Did I mention how huge turnovers are? Just checking.

On to the situational stats...

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
		Q1
57.9%	46.8%	Success Rate	41.9%	42.1%
0.56	0.28	PPP	0.36	0.36
1.137	0.747	S&P	0.782	0.783

		Q2
59.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	40.0%	55.6%
0.49	0.27	PPP	0.27	0.47
1.088	0.669	S&P	0.665	1.028

		Q3
55.6%	40.5%	Success Rate	41.5%	42.8%
0.54	0.37	PPP	0.31	0.48
1.096	0.771	S&P	0.725	0.909

		Q4
51.3%	40.5%	Success Rate	42.3%	54.8%
0.44	0.37	PPP	0.42	0.51
0.950	0.772	S&P	0.842	1.054

		1st Downs
58.2%	43.3%	Success Rate	45.6%	48.4%
0.55	0.33	PPP	0.34	0.43
1.130	0.764	S&P	0.796	0.912

		2nd Downs
57.2%	38.6%	Success Rate	38.9%	47.9%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.33	0.44
1.039	0.700	S&P	0.716	0.922

		3rd Downs
50.9%	41.0%	Success Rate	34.3%	48.4%
0.51	0.28	PPP	0.35	0.50
1.015	0.694	S&P	0.697	0.982

Iowa State's defense is extra horrible in Q2 and Q4. That suggests that the game-planning and adjustments are there...but the talent and speed are not. Opponents are able to wear ISU down and make plays eventually.
ISU's offensive success rates are best on first down. If Mizzou allows Alexander Robinson to get some yards on first down, ISU could milk the clock and actually turn into a reasonably efficient offense. They still don't have any big playmakers, but Baylor was able to move the ball without too many big plays. The difference, of course, is that Mizzou was playing an umbrella defense to contain Hot Tub Griffin III. They'll likely be much more aggressive with a less mobile Arnaud in the backfield.
I reference this every week, I think, but the quarter-to-quarter and down-to-down consistency of the Missouri offense is impressive.
ISU probably won't move the ball in Q2. It's their worst offensive quarter, and it's the Mizzou defense's best quarter.

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Two years ago, with a wind chill of 31 degrees, Iowa State played keep-away and punished Mizzou with a steady diet of the beefy Ryan Kock (32 carries, 179 yards). That, combined with the fact that about 18 Mizzou WRs/TEs got hurt that day and Chase Daniel was trying to lead a comeback throwing only to a sophomore Tommy Saunders and freshmen Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, all but sealed Missouri's fate*. At 5'10, 182 pounds, Robinson is quite clearly not built like Kock, but he had a great game against Missouri last year (21 carries, 149 yards--his success kept the game close and kept Pig Brown on the field late in Q4...when he injured his Achilles), and he's all-in-all a pretty solid sophomore running back. His 0.708 S&P isn't amazing, but a) it's improved in recent games, and b) it's infinitely better than Jason Scales' 0.654 or JJ Bass' 0.556. Scales is a more efficient back (40% success rate to Robinson's 38%), but barely. If ISU is going to successfully play keep-away again, it's on Robinson's shoulders.

* I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold.

WR RJ Sumrall

If Robinson isn't ISU's best chance at a big play, it's Sumrall, who like Scales, seems to have been at Iowa State for decades. His 0.912 PPP is by far the most explosive on the team (Sedrick Johnson's 0.763 is the only other one over 0.7...which is pretty bad). He's certainly experienced, and it's Senior Day, so it's quite possible Sumrall makes a big play or two in the passing game. If he doesn't, I can't see who will. Then again, he'll likely be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment, so maybe I should go with Johnson instead?

LB Fred Garrin

He and Leonard Johnson are as close to being a turnover machine as Gene Chizik has. If Mizzou has a costly turnover, chances are one of these two guys will be involved in it.

P Mike Brandtner

In a cold weather game, ISU has one other pathway to success: success in the field position battle. With wind a factor, he could (assuming he punts a lot--and he better) potentially pin Mizzou pretty deep in 2 of 4 quarters. What that will mean, among other things, is more opportunities for ISU's defense to hit Mizzou's skill position players and wear them out. You won't want to hit the ground too hard on Saturday--it's cold and hard--and if Mizzou starts their drives with long fields, they might score, but they might not have their legs about them as much later in the game.

Key Players: Missouri

QB Chase Daniel

It's easy, really. Chase rediscovers his mojo, Mizzou wins going away. He makes another few stupid throws, and ISU can make him pay, just like Baylor and Oklahoma State did (and just like KSU could have, had they had any sort of offensive success).

RB Derrick Washington

November's when Tony Temple started to turn it on during his career--a frigid, windy Jack Trice Stadium just screams "20-25 carries for Washington". If he goes "20 carries for 126 yards and 2-3 TDs," Mizzou wins easy. If it's more like "15 carries, 58 yards," then Chase will have to make a lot more windy throws.

FS William Moore

He's shown flashes of "Willy Mo '07" here and there, but the dude has cost himself some money with his play this year. He's only been solid, not amazing. But he's got 3-4 more games to remind Mizzou fans of what they thought they had in him for '08. He's still one of my favorite Mizzou players ever, but he's certainly had a disappointing season.

P Jake Harry

As always...the less we see of him, the bigger the winning margin. Love ya, Jake, but here's to hoping for another "1 punt, 41 yards" line from you.

Summary and Prediction

Monday's BTBS projections said Mizzou would take this one 39-23. Last week I combined the BTBS projections with the turnover averages and nailed the margin of victory...right up until Ron Prince pulled a Ron Prince and KSU got two junk TDs in the last two minutes. So we'll go with that. Taking what looks like about a 1-2 point ISU turnover advantage into account, we'll make that a nice and tidy 38-24 Mizzou win. With the wind and general misery of a Jack Trice Stadium encounter, this game could be closer than we'd like to think. I expect a closer game than a lot people, but I refuse to believe that Chase Daniel won't find a way to win this game, and probably comfortably. Mizzou clinches the North on Saturday.

Poll

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

3 votes

ISU's ability to force turnovers

6 votes

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

38 votes

Nothing

24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Baylor (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 19:00:06 -0000

Alright, we're combining the "MU-__ Beyond the Box Score" piece with the "Big 12 BTBS Box Scores" piece...I've bolded the super-duper interesting parts of each box score...

Mizzou (31)		Baylor (28)
	% Close = 100.0%
51.4%	Field Position %	48.6%
80.8%	Leverage %	75.9%

	TOTAL
73	Plays	79
31.56	EqPts	29.73
63.0%	Success Rate	53.2%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.38
1.062	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.908

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
9.45	EqPts	11.85
57.6%	Success Rate	57.5%
0.29	PPP	0.30
0.862	S&P	0.871
3.43	Line Yards/carry	*3.20*

	PASSING
22.10	EqPts	17.88
67.5%	Success Rate	48.7%
0.55	PPP	0.46
1.228	S&P	0.946

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
69.5%	Success Rate	56.7%
0.43	PPP	0.29
1.120	S&P	0.856

	PASSING DOWNS
35.7%	Success Rate	42.1%
0.46	PPP	0.65
0.820	S&P	1.073

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	2
9.39	Points Lost	5.50
4.93	Points Given	4.27
14.32	Total T/O Pts	9.77
*-4.55*	*Turnover Pts Margin*	*+4.55*

1.315	Q1 S&P	0.842
1.183	Q2 S&P	0.953
0.790	Q3 S&P	1.041
0.807	Q4 S&P	0.702

0.970	1st Down S&P	0.739
1.158	2nd Down S&P	1.066
1.156	3rd Down S&P	0.741

How was Baylor able to see more offensive success than expected on Saturday? Success on 2nd downs. They were okay on 1st downs, but their 2nd down success (which has been a strength of theirs all year, for some reason) kept them out of tough 3rd downs.
How was Baylor able to run so effectively on Saturday? It appears the answer is in the trenches. Baylor's 3.40 Line Yards per carry was higher than their 2.83 season average, and MUCH higher than Missouri's 2.18 season average allowed. This is something to watch as pass rush specialists Brian "God" Coulter and Jacquies Smith start to see more playing time over run stuffer Tommy Chavis (it's also something to keep in mind next year, when God and Jacq become two of our defensive staples). While the pass rush is improved by the addition of Coulter and Smith, they might not be as good at holding the line as Chavis is.
It goes without saying that the first two quarters went more or less as expected. Turnovers prevented Missouri from probably having a 17- or 21-point lead, but they were dominating in S&P. And then came the third quarter, where Baylor turned the game on its ear. Remember last year, when Missouri humiliated team after team in Q3 (sans the Big 12 title game)? While the offense is still more-or-less holding up its end of the bargain (#2 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play), the defense hasn't been as dominant (only #7 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play). Mizzou has been fine in Q3 in a lot of games--Texas, Colorado, Nebraska--but Q3 efforts against OSU and Baylor turned the game around against Mizzou. Is that coaching? Execution? Luck? No idea.
Taking turnovers into account, the scoring margin actually favors Baylor. OUCH. Not at all what we expected to see here, but...survive and advance! The North title still runs right through Columbia, and if NU beats KU on Saturday, the North title could actually be clinched before the trip to Arrowhead.

Alright, a bit more BU-MU analysis after the jump, then it's on to the other Big 12 games...

Here's a review of who I named the "Key Players" last week...

Key Players: Baylor

QB Hot Tub Griffin III

Griffin had 17.88 EqPts passing and 5.40 EqPts rushing (at a 0.954-S&P clip). His first career INT was obviously costly, and it's not like they have him throwing too many risky passes, but still...he passed this test with flying colors. Pass.

RB Jay Finley

Finley had 14 of the BU RBs' 27 carries. His S&P was only 0.786 (with a rather impressive 58% success rate), and he managed only 3.01 EqPts, but his game-tying Q4 TD reception was huge. Stil, though, Baylor needed a hair more from him, I guess. Pass.

LB Joe Pawelek

Pawelek was in on 13 tackles (7 solos) and a TD-saving INT. I mentioned last week that I wasn't sure if he was actually a good LB or if he was making plays in a "Somebody has to make tackles, even on a bad defense" way. He impressed me. Jordan Lake also passed this test, though if his hands were a little better, he wouldn't have dropped what could have been a game-winning INT. Thank goodness his hands aren't a little better, huh? PASS.

KR Mikail Baker

Baker had a 33-yard kickoff return, and two others totalling 44 yards, but he was not a difference-maker. Fail.

Key Players: Mizzou

TE Chase Coffman

How about 10 catches, 7.54 EqPts, a 1.454 S&P, and two more ridiculous TDs that apparently the refs reviewed on replay simply so they could watch it again? Does that sound like a difference-maker to you? PASS.

OL Colin Brown (i.e. the offensive line)

I don't believe Brown had any false starts this week, which is a good sign. As a whole, the O-Line gave up 1 sack and 2 QB hurries in 41 pass attempts--that's certainly not bad. It sounded like Daniel was having to run around quite a bit in the second half, and that Baylor's line was playing well, but without visual proof I'll go to the numbers and suggest that Mizzou's line was average to above average, and nothing more. Neither.

LB Brock Christopher, LB Sean Weatherspoon, FS William Moore, or whoever ends up shadowing Hot Tub Griffin III the most

Griffin's rushing totals were not a difference maker, though it sounded like Mizzou's determination not to let Griffin's legs beat them opened up the short passing game in a major way. Oh, and do you remember William Moore's name being called by Mike Kelly more than once? Because I don't. Fail.

P Jake Harry

Harry stepped onto the field only once, Mizzou won. Ahh, science. PASS.

BIG 12 BTBS BOX SCORES

Texas (33)		Tech (39)
	% Close = 87.4%
31.4%	Field Position %	68.6%
69.4%	Leverage %	75.3%

	TOTAL
62	Plays	81
22.90	EqPts	31.66
38.7%	Success Rate	59.3%
0.37	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.39
0.756	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.983

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
45	Plays	80
18.63	EqPts	31.19
44.4%	Success Rate	58.8%
0.41	PPP	0.39
0.858	S&P	0.978

	RUSHING
6.32	EqPts	7.65
41.7%	Success Rate	61.5%
0.26	PPP	0.29
0.680	S&P	0.910
2.19	Line Yards/carry	*3.81*

	PASSING
16.57	EqPts	24.01
36.8%	Success Rate	58.2%
0.44	PPP	0.44
0.805	S&P	1.018

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.2%	Success Rate	63.9%
0.41	PPP	0.37
0.852	S&P	1.012

	PASSING DOWNS
26.3%	Success Rate	45.0%
0.28	PPP	0.45
0.540	S&P	0.895

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	1
0.87	Points Lost	0.94
7.00	Points Given	3.41
7.87	Total T/O Pts	4.35
-3.52	Turnover Pts Margin	+3.52

0.283	Q1 S&P	0.873
0.469	Q2 S&P	1.246
0.651	Q3 S&P	0.625
1.744	Q4 S&P	1.121

0.924	1st Down S&P	1.135
0.578	2nd Down S&P	0.904
0.657	3rd Down S&P	0.716

What I said last week: "Meanwhile, if Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, you can thank the constantly successful tightrope act of thriving on Passing Downs. Yet again, UT was better on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs, and while you have to worry that the magic could suddenly, violently disappear (it did for Chase Daniel for about 6 quarters, long enough to kill his Heisman chances and his team's title chances), it might not."
What I say this week: BAM. Passing Downs KILLED Texas. Murdered them.
What also murdered Texas: playing like ass in the first half. You can ask Missouri--playing like ass for an entire first half against a Top 10 team on the road? Not a good idea. Just sayin'.
An underrated facet of Tech's victory was the way they dominated the field position battle. Even when they didn't put together a scoring drive, they usually moved the ball well enough to keep Texas deep inside their own field position. It led directly to the safety that kicked off the scoring, and despite Malcolm Williams' star-turning 91-yard TD, field position benefited Tech greatly.
In all, Tech's defense isn't dominant, and it doesn't rank tremendously well among other Big 12 teams, but they tackle really well, and they're much better than previous Tech defenses at stopping the big play. This was evident here, as aside from Williams' aforementioned TD, Texas was not eating up large chunks of yardage at a time.

Nebraska (28)		Oklahoma (62)
	% Close = 9.8%
32.1%	Field Position %	67.9%
68.3%	Leverage %	74.3%

	TOTAL
63	Plays	70
26.68	EqPts	41.17
38.1%	Success Rate	47.1%
0.42	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.59
0.805	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.060

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
3	Plays	10
0.53	EqPts	10.61
33.3%	Success Rate	60.0%
0.18	PPP	1.06
0.508	S&P	1.661

	RUSHING
14.21	EqPts	15.25
38.2%	Success Rate	42.5%
0.42	PPP	0.38
0.800	S&P	0.806
2.37	Line Yards/carry	3.02

	PASSING
12.47	EqPts	25.93
37.9%	Success Rate	53.3%
0.43	PPP	0.86
0.809	S&P	1.398

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.2%	Success Rate	48.1%
0.38	PPP	0.54
0.824	S&P	1.020

	PASSING DOWNS
25.0%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.51	PPP	0.73
0.763	S&P	1.173

	TURNOVERS
4	Number	1
5.37	Points Lost	4.41
17.50	Points Given	1.18
22.87	Total T/O Pts	5.59
*-17.28*	*Turnover Pts Margin*	*+17.28*

0.223	Q1 S&P	1.472
1.168	Q2 S&P	1.103
0.850	Q3 S&P	1.081
0.757	Q4 S&P	0.150

0.456	1st Down S&P	0.844
0.955	2nd Down S&P	1.122
1.329	3rd Down S&P	1.335

9.8%! We have a new record for "fastest time between when a game started and when it was officially over". Nebraska ran 3 plays when the game was within 17 points or less! THREE!
Needless to say, when you're playing in Norman, it's a bad idea to give up a 17-point Turnover Points Margin.

K-State (21)		Kansas (52)
	% Close = 20.1%
42.2%	Field Position %	57.8%
61.6%	Leverage %	71.2%

	TOTAL
73	Plays	66
22.34	EqPts	37.64
34.3%	Success Rate	53.0%
0.31	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.57
0.649	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.101

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
10	Plays	18
1.49	EqPts	15.98
30.0%	Success Rate	55.6%
0.15	PPP	0.89
0.449	S&P	1.443

	RUSHING
10.76	EqPts	25.39
37.9%	Success Rate	60.0%
0.37	PPP	0.635
0.750	S&P	1.235
2.36	Line Yards/carry	4.27

	PASSING
11.58	EqPts	12.25
31.8%	Success Rate	42.3%
0.26	PPP	0.47
0.581	S&P	0.894

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
40.0%	Success Rate	61.7%
0.33	PPP	0.66
0.727	S&P	1.273

	PASSING DOWNS
25.0%	Success Rate	31.6%
0.27	PPP	0.36
0.523	S&P	0.674

	TURNOVERS
5	Number	1
13.11	Points Lost	4.34
16.50	Points Given	0.90
29.61	Total T/O Pts	5.24
-24.37	Turnover Pts Margin	+24.37

0.351	Q1 S&P	1.418
0.601	Q2 S&P	0.946
0.554	Q3 S&P	1.150
0.970	Q4 S&P	0.755

0.486	1st Down S&P	1.131
0.525	2nd Down S&P	0.829
0.932	3rd Down S&P	1.586

Most weeks, a game that was only close 20% of the time would be the big 'blowout' winner, but not this week. KSU did win the "suicide by turnovers" award for the week, though, so congrats for that!
Jake Sharp has been running roughshod over opponents for the last few games, and I'm wondering if it's actually him, of if the O-line has finally clicked. A 4.28 Line Yards per carry suggests the latter.
For K-State, a confusing per-down line. They were atrocious on 1st and 2nd downs, but downright decent on 3rd downs.
I'm thinking Josh Freeman should go ahead and go pro. It's pretty clear that another year in this system isn't going to do anything for his "Man, does he look great in a uniform!" draft stock--really, it can only hurt it...unless K-State fires Ron Prince and hires Norm Chow or something. Which isn't going to happen. A 0.581 Passing S&P is pretty awful considering how iffy KU has been against the pass. I don't care if his receivers really are awful...a big-time pro prospect should be able to do better than that.

Iowa St (17)		OSU (59)
	% Close = 37.0%
51.4%	Field Position %	48.6%
68.5%	Leverage %	83.1%

	TOTAL
73	Plays	65
20.29	EqPts	49.87
43.8%	Success Rate	56.9%
0.28	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.77
0.716	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.336

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
24	Plays	27
6.67	EqPts	22.83
45.8%	Success Rate	59.3%
0.28	PPP	0.85
0.736	S&P	1.438

	RUSHING
9.35	EqPts	19.26
47.2%	Success Rate	52.8%
0.26	PPP	0.53
0.732	S&P	1.063
2.32	Line Yards/carry	3.58

	PASSING
10.94	EqPts	30.61
40.5%	Success Rate	62.1%
0.30	PPP	1.056
0.701	S&P	1.676

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
54.0%	Success Rate	57.4%
0.35	PPP	0.70
0.889	S&P	1.274

	PASSING DOWNS
21.7%	Success Rate	54.6%
0.12	PPP	1.10
0.342	S&P	1.643

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	2
8.85	Points Lost	5.22
5.57	Points Given	3.31
14.42	Total T/O Pts	8.53
-5.89	Turnover Pts Margin	+5.89

0.703	Q1 S&P	1.041
0.684	Q2 S&P	1.599
0.627	Q3 S&P	2.085
0.877	Q4 S&P	0.930

0.896	1st Down S&P	1.387
0.638	2nd Down S&P	1.457
0.551	3rd Down S&P	0.760

Hey, Gene Chizik: you were a defensive coordinator, right? Just checking. Because your defense just gave up over 1 Point Per Play for every pass OSU threw on Saturday. That's amazingly bad.
That's really all I've got. Every stat on the page is some variation of "ISU offense = okay. ISU defense = amazingly bad."

Colorado (17)		A&M (24)
	% Close = 100.0%
60.4%	Field Position %	39.6%
71.4%	Leverage %	59.4%

	TOTAL
77	Plays	64
21.91	EqPts	20.82
44.2%	Success Rate	34.4%
0.28	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.33
0.726	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.669

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
14.75	EqPts	6.26
50.0%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.35	PPP	0.22
0.851	S&P	0.581
3.05	Line Yards/carry	2.62

	PASSING
7.15	EqPts	14.56
37.1%	Success Rate	33.3%
0.20	PPP	0.40
0.576	S&P	0.738

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
50.9%	Success Rate	36.8%
0.31	PPP	0.32
0.815	S&P	0.693

	PASSING DOWNS
27.3%	Success Rate	30.8%
0.23	PPP	0.33
0.504	S&P	0.634

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	1
8.58	Points Lost	2.48
4.77	Points Given	2.41
13.35	Total T/O Pts	4.89
-8.46	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.46

0.764	Q1 S&P	0.333
0.707	Q2 S&P	0.468
0.377	Q3 S&P	1.455
0.951	Q4 S&P	0.211

0.850	1st Down S&P	0.646
0.687	2nd Down S&P	0.847
0.486	3rd Down S&P	0.436

Turnovers = difference in this game.
That, and the 3rd quarter.
And the Colorado offense's complete lack of explosiveness. 0.28 PPP is pretty damn bad.
Long-term, Rodney Stewart's gruesome broken leg might be a good thing for Colorado. He should recover just fine, and now Darrell Scott will have some more opportunities to prove if he's going to be worth a damn anytime soon.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:00:09 -0000

I'm suddenly running behind this week, so...less talk, more numbers...

Missouri	Opp.		Baylor	Opp.
49.9%		% Close	56.2%
56.1%	43.9%	Field Position %	39.3%	60.7%
76.8%	67.6%	Leverage %	66.8%	71.1%

		Total
551	605	Plays	509	608
291.70	187.43	EqPts	197.47	205.98
57.2%	40.8%	Success Rate	40.9%	45.1%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.39	0.34
1.101	0.718	S&P	0.797	0.789

		Close Games
316	261	Plays	280	348
166.56	84.37	EqPts	121.41	130.77
57.6%	41.4%	Success Rate	40.7%	47.4%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.43	0.38
1.103	0.737	S&P	0.841	0.850

		Rushing
103.11	187.43	EqPts	108.00	95.71
50.9%	40.8%	Success Rate	42.2%	45.7%
0.45	0.31	PPP	0.37	0.30
0.961	0.718	S&P	0.789	0.754
3.18	2.18	Line Yds/carry	2.83	2.95

		Passing
188.58	126.15	EqPts	89.47	110.27
61.6%	43.8%	Success Rate	39.1%	44.4%
0.58	0.38	PPP	0.42	0.39
1.200	0.821	S&P	0.807	0.830
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	9.7%	5.2%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.9%	46.0%	Success Rate	46.5%	49.8%
0.55	0.32	PPP	0.38	0.33
1.168	0.780	S&P	0.846	0.827
1.3%	4.7%	Sack Rate	7.1%	3.1%
47.0%	53.3%	Run Rate	70.9%	63.0%

		Passing Downs
41.4%	30.1%	Success Rate	29.6%	33.5%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.40	0.36
0.880	0.588	S&P	0.697	0.696
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	10.3%	7.9%
22.7%	29.6%	Run Rate	44.8%	33.3%

		Turnovers
10	13	Total	7	15
26.18	31.36	Points Lost	19.55	40.60
25.07	52.28	Points Given	16.16	29.65
51.25	83.64	Total T/O Pts	35.71	70.25
+32.39	-32.39	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+34.54	-34.54

Thoughts after the jump...

Baylor's defensive numbers are decent, but they are getting dominated in the field position battle, and if you give your opponents a 60-yard field while working on an 80-yard field, eventually you're going to tumble. They do a pretty good job of forcing Passing Downs, though.
As a reminder about my piece from the other day, Missouri currently has the best rushing defense in the Big 12 and second-best defense on Non-Passing Downs. Only Colorado is worse than Baylor in terms of Passing Downs success, so this could be big. Robert Griffin's (I felt I owed it to him to say his name right at least once) legs are obviously a concern (especially considering Baylor runs the ball almost 50% of the time in Passing Downs...meaning lots of QB draws), but he can only pull so many rabbits out of his hat. Force Baylor into enough Passing Downs, and this one's over.
Credit to Griffin for (as strange as this may sound) committing to being a QB. You see those high sack rates? With Griffin's elusiveness, that suggests that he really does stick around in the pocket trying to complete a pass. It might not be smart necessarily, but it's admirable.
You've also got to love Griffin's 9-to-0 TD-INT ratio. Anytime your ratio is infinity, you're doing pretty well. I expect the ratio to become a real number this week, though. Just a hunch.
It's amazing how playing Colorado makes your pass defense numbers look a whole helluva lot better. Missouri almost has it's Pass Defense S&P below 0.800!

Alright, let's see what the situational numbers tell us...

Missouri	Opp.		Baylor	Opp.
		Q1
55.6%	50.8%	Success Rate	45.1%	47.3%
0.56	0.34	PPP	0.39	0.36
1.116	0.849	S&P	0.839	0.838

		Q2
56.4%	41.0%	Success Rate	38.1%	50.0%
0.51	0.30	PPP	0.49	0.35
1.078	0.714	S&P	0.872	0.851

		Q3
62.7%	39.1%	Success Rate	36.8%	38.6%
0.62	0.36	PPP	0.31	0.30
1.250	0.748	S&P	0.677	0.682

		Q4
52.9%	40.0%	Success Rate	41.7%	41.8%
0.38	0.34	PPP	0.30	0.31
0.914	0.736	S&P	0.712	0.724

		1st Downs
59.8%	44.8%	Success Rate	38.6%	44.4%
0.56	0.36	PPP	0.26	0.29
1.159	0.805	S&P	0.648	0.732

		2nd Downs
58.4%	37.6%	Success Rate	46.5%	42.5%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.53	0.34
1.057	0.685	S&P	0.991	0.760

		3rd Downs
49.3%	44.7%	Success Rate	37.4%	44.9%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.41	0.41
1.021	0.765	S&P	0.788	0.860

It's impressive how close the performance of Baylor and their opponents is on a per-quarter basis. Doesn't really say anything, but it's interesting. Also interesting: Baylor has its most success at the beginning of the game, but their offensive act wears thin as the game progresses. This could actually help Baylor a bit, as Missouri is at its most vulnerable in Q1. I could definitely see a situation where the game is tied for a while in Q1 and maybe Q2, and Missouri slowly pulls away.
Meanwhile Baylor THRIVES on 2nd downs. As does the Missouri defense. I still have yet to figure out the significance of 2nd downs--why some teams are amazing at them and bad at 1st/3rd downs, and vice versa--but it's certainly the linchpin down for the Bears.
Baylor's defense tends to get incrementally worse on each down, as does, actually, Missouri's offense.

Key Players: Baylor

QB Hot Tub Griffin III

Let's not beat around the bush here. If Baylor is to beat Missouri, it's going to be by Robert Griffin pulling a "2002 Brad Smith against Oklahoma."

RB Jay Finley

Baylor's second-best offensive weapon, Finley is averaging 6.0 yards and a serviceable 0.806 S&P per carry. He's not to be mistaken for Demarco Murray or something here (as his meager 0.39 PPP would suggest), but he's not bad. And obviously if five guys are keying on Griffin, that opens up holes for Finley. The other options for "Most important offensive player other than Griffin" are either WR Kendall Wright or WR Justin Akers, the Bears' two best WR weapons from a PPP (i.e. explosiveness) perspective.

LB Joe Pawelek

Baylor's leader in INTs, fumble recoveries and QB Hurries (plus their almost leader in Tackles for Loss), Pawelek is a solid player and clearly the closest-thing Baylor has to a game-changer on defense. He's got a ridiculous number of tackles, but that doesn't mean much against an offense that spreads you from sideline to sideline. He's on this list because he makes the big plays. Plus, you have to figure he'll end up matched up with Chase Coffman at least a little bit. Good luck with that.

KR Mikail Baker

BU's starting D-line has only managed 4.5 sacks this year, and while DE Leon Freeman might actually be pretty decent, we're going in a different direction with the last Key Player pick. Buffalo hung with Mizzou for a while, in part because Ernest Jackson took a kick deep early in the game. It gave both the Buffalo offense and defense a chance to get their bearings and stay in the game. Baker has a kick return TD this year, and while he has otherwise been only average, if he can return another one, it could keep Baylor close.

Key Players: Mizzou

TE Chase Coffman

I'm mainly putting him on here because I haven't put him on here yet, and his play over the last few games has been unreal, even for him. Jeremy Maclin is doing his best to assure himself of a double-team over the rest of the season (if teams aren't doing that already), which just increases the odds that Coffman will be lined up in the slot, one-on-one with a soon-to-be hapless linebacker. Which means very, very good things for Missouri.

Also, I just can't help but be amazed that he hurdles somebody EVERY SINGLE WEEK. That CU defender he hurdled last week didn't even crouch down very far, and he still hurdled him. The Flying Nunchuk will live on forever. Knowshon who?

OL Colin Brown

Really, I was going to list the entire O-line, but Brown has had a ridiculous number of false start penalties in the last couple of games, and because of that he was the only member of the Mizzou O-line that didn't completely dominate last week. The only times Mizzou has stumbled this year, it was mostly because the line didn't block well at all. Baylor doesn't have much to offer in terms of Defensive Line prowess, but decent players like Trey Bryant and Leon Freeman could still have a decent day if Mizzou's O-line isn't clicking. No pressure on Daniel = no chance for Baylor.

LB Brock Christopher, LB Sean Weatherspoon, FS William Moore, or whoever ends up shadowing Hot Tub Griffin III the most

Shadowing Griffin has to be Job #1 for the Mizzou defense. He's going to get yards on scrambles, but if you hold him to 5-15 yards instead of 25-infinity yards, and you make the poor-success-rate offense go the length of the field, they'll likely stumble along the way. I could see Mizzou somewhat busting out the Illinois gameplan--have Moore chase Griffin all game and see if he can throw the deep ball like Juice Williams can (he can't...well, maybe he can, but he doesn't have the WRs).

P Jake Harry

I'm reaching here, but there is no other player who is more closely tied to Mizzou's success than Harry. Harry doesn't see the field, Mizzou doesn't lose. It's all so simple when you break it down scientifically!

Summary

I really am disappointed that this one's not on television. I'm not sure how far Hot Tub Griffin III can take Baylor over his remaining 3.5 years, but there's no doubting the fact that he's entertaining as all hell. I'd love to get the chance to see how well he actually plays the position of quarterback, but I guess I'll have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to see that. And either way, Baylor just does not have the horses on either side of the ball yet. Brad Smith at least had Justin Gage and James Kinney his first year.

Tuesday's projections said 32-22 Missouri. My Roundtable prediction was 48-17 Missouri. How about we just average that? New pick: 40-20 Missouri.

Actually, no. Scratch that. The more I think about this, the more I'm allowing Baylor 14 points via outstanding play from Hot Tub Griffin III, and no more. Beyond that, in games against teams not named Oklahoma State or Texas, Mizzou is averaging 54.2 points per game. Baylor's defense is much closer to that of Illinois, Nevada, SEMO, Buffalo, Nebraska and Colorado than that of OSU and Texas. So I'm taking 7 points away from Baylor and adding it to Mizzou's ledger. 47-13 Missouri. That's science at its best right there.

Poll

So...what IS Baylor's ceiling with Hot Tub Griffin III at QB?

5-7

10 votes

6-6 (Texas Bowl!)

18 votes

7-5 (Insight Bowl!)

20 votes

8-4 (SHREVEPORT!!!)

19 votes

9-3 (Alamo Bowl!!)

5 votes

10-2 (Cotton Bowl??)

2 votes

Big 12 South Champion

4 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Jake Harry IV

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

Special Teams

Conclusion

A 2009 Walkthrough: Special Teams

Kicker

Punter

Kick Returner

Punt Returner

2008 vs 2009

Who will be returning kickoffs for Mizzou in 2009?

De'Vion Moore

Gahn McGaffie

Robert Steeples

Kip Edwards

Munir Prince

Drew Temple

La'Roderick Thomas

other

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri(30)

NW'ern(23)

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Summary

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

Why choose? All of the above!

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Defensive Lines

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

North Defenses, 2009

Special Teams

Coaches

2009 North Rankings

-- Schedules --

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Missouri

Nebraska

Standings

Summary

Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou (52)

Iowa St. (20)

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Mizzou

MU-ISU Summary

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)

Kansas (7)

Nebraska (56)

K-State (28)

OSU(30)

Colorado (17)

ATM(21)

Baylor (41)

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Mizzou

Missouri
(30)

NW'ern
(23)

OSU
(30)

ATM
(21)

Mizzou
(31)

Baylor
(28)

Texas
(33)

Tech
(39)

Nebraska
(28)

Oklahoma
(62)

K-State
(21)

Kansas
(52)

Iowa St
(17)

OSU
(59)

Colorado
(17)

A&M
(24)