SB Nation - Andrew Gachkar

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm not going to lie. As Mizzou-Kansas ended early Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was that I was going to need help from the BTBS numbers to make sense of everything I just saw. In a game that featured over 1,100 yards of offense, Mizzou's defense made the plays in the last five minutes that won the game. In a game where Danario Alexander and Dezmon Briscoe combined for 29 catches and 475 yards (seriously), it was Andrew Gachkar, Jake Harry, Brian Coulter/Aldon Smith, Derrick Washington and Grant Ressel making the breakthrough plays down the stretch. So many people did so many amazing things ... what do the numbers say about what took place?

The best receiver in the country

	Kansas (39)	Mizzou (41)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	46.6%	46.7%
Leverage %	65.8%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	31.9	33.3
Close Success Rate	50.7%	45.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.44
Close S&P	0.944	0.898

RUSHING
EqPts	5.7	18.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	51.5%
Close PPP	0.35	0.55
Close S&P	0.854	1.066
Line Yards/carry	3.15	3.53

PASSING
EqPts	26.3	15.2
Close Success Rate	50.9%	40.5%
Close PPP	0.46	0.36
Close S&P	0.969	0.766
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.8% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	56.3%	54.0%
PPP	0.36	0.42
S&P	0.927	0.960

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	40.0%	28.0%
PPP	0.58	0.50
S&P	0.977	0.775

TURNOVERS
Number	3	1
Turnover Pts	14.3	4.9
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.4	+9.4

Q1 S&P	1.103	0.952
Q2 S&P	0.976	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.730	1.779
Q4 S&P	0.949	0.456

1st Down S&P	0.838	0.803
2nd Down S&P	0.730	0.888
3rd Down S&P	1.529	1.116

Projected Pt. Margin	-10.8	+10.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

So many things here that I didn't expect to see:

Mizzou's offense was almost nonexistent in Q2 and Q4. Their passing numbers? Only decent, despite Danario Alexander's unbelievable third quarter (7 catches, 181 yards). And they still struggled on passing downs.
Both teams were only decent on 1st and 2nd down, but automatic on 3rd down. KU, especially, had Mizzou's defense on a string on 3rd down ... until their final two, in which Mizzou came up with two game-turning sacks.
Both teams were exactly the same from a Field Position and Leverage standpoint, despite KU starting three drives from inside their 3.
Unsung heroes: Mizzou's offensive line, which allowed one sack and plowed away for over three and a half line yards per carry.

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

I was on Big 12 North Talk Radio Sunday night and was asked about Mizzou's struggling pass defense, and I stammered through an answer about how you probably shouldn't take much away from a rivalry game (after all, Texas A&M gained 530 yards on a dominant Texas defense Thursday night), and how Mizzou's struggles have been caused by different things at different times (no pass rush and poor LB play against KU, poor tackling against Baylor, complete miscommunication against Texas, Carl Gettis' backup getting burned against NU, etc.), but despite that, there's no question that something has been amiss in recent weeks.

Here are Missouri's Passing S&P+ numbers in terms of individual game "+" scores (disregarding Furman). Remember, a) 100 = average, and b) the higher number, the better the performance.

Nevada (193.5)
Colorado (182.3)
Bowling Green (148.9)
Nebraska (109.6)
Oklahoma State (105.4)
Illinois (103.7)
Iowa State (95.6)
Kansas (84.0)
Kansas State (72.9)
Texas (66.8)
Baylor (59.4)

Over the first five games (not counting Furman), Missouri averaged a 132.2. Over the last six, Missouri has averaged a 93.5, and that's with the Colorado outlier. Missouri's five worst games this season all came in the last six weeks (and remember, this is adjusted for opponent, so even if the offenses Mizzou faced improved, that doesn't mean Mizzou's numbers should automatically fall). Meanwhile, Missouri's sack rate has actually improved over that time (from 1.0% on Standard Downs and 8.9% on Passing Downs, to 6.0% on Standard Downs and 9.9% on Passing Downs), actually giving the pass defense numbers a bit of a boost. Obviously the pass rush wasn't great against Kansas, but it's been decent down the stretch.

So what has changed in the last six weeks? For one thing, Carl Gettis got hurt. It was hinted in October and early-November that he hurt himself worse than anybody thought against Nebraska, but while his and Jasper Simmons' injuries absolutely played a role in the Baylor debacle, he's still seemed steady enough that his ankle alone can't explain a 29.2% drop in pass defense. What else has changed? Well, Hardy Ricks was lost for the season. I wouldn't have thought that would have made a difference, but maybe it did? Plus, opponents got film on Simmons and Jarrell Harrison and were probably better able to take advantage of whatever weaknesses they may have. And quite frankly, Kevin Rutland has been maddeningly inconsistent, matching nice pass break-ups with horrible mishaps.

Is there something else I'm missing here? It's not like the scheme has changed. Like it or not, the general philosophy of pass defense is simply not going to change as long as Gary Pinkel is in charge. We are going to run a basic Cover-2, and we're going to give receivers giant cushions and allow the short passes while hoping to tackle well, not get burned deep, and bend just long enough to force a mistake from the opponent. When and how we blitz may change, but in general, we defend the pass as we always have under Pinkel, and that's just the way it is. It's not like opponents suddenly figured out what we were doing and changed their approach halfway through the season. Anyway, I'm all ears. Let me know why you think things have regressed.

No matter what the cause, there's no question that, with opponent taken into account, this pass defense is not as good as in recent years. Whether you want to believe it or not, the opponent had as much to do with last year's regression in raw stats than anything else. Missouri ranked 26th in Defensive Passing S&P+ in 2008 and 17th in 2007, but they rank only 66th this season. Maybe this is just what we should have expected in losing three of four starters in the secondary (and a hit-or-miss pass rush hasn't helped). Or not.

But that's enough negativity. We did, after all, beat Kansas.

Three Positives

Always. Be. Closing. For 55 minutes, the 2008 and 2009 MU-KU games were strikingly similar. For the first half, KU's offense was strong and Mizzou made a series of mistakes, leading to a halftime deficit that could have been a lot worse than it actually was (19-10 in 2008, 21-13 in 2009). Then, Mizzou found their offensive rhythm in the third quarter and stormed back to take a fourth quarter lead (30-26 with 6:52 left in 2008, 36-28 with 13:29 left in 2009). But thanks to some combination of Reesing, Briscoe, and Kerry Meier, KU got the momentum back and, with roughly five minutes left, faced a third down in Mizzou territory.

Here's where things start to diverge. In 2008, Reesing completed a 31-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 to Marcus Herford, setting up a go-ahead TD pass to Meier (who forever earned the middle name of "Effing" after this game). Mizzou responded with a go-ahead drive of their own, but as we all know, Reesing and Meier connected again to win the game in the final minute. For the last five minutes, Reesing was 8-for-11 for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

For the last five and a half minutes on Saturday, Reesing was 0-for-3 passing with two "sacks" (the second one was considered a rush, not a sack) for a loss of 19 yards. After 55 game minutes of stress and momentum changes, KU faced a third-and-goal from Mizzou's 5, and there was absolutely no reason to think KU wouldn't convert. All game long, if Mizzou blitzed, they got burned; if they dropped into coverage, they eventually got burned. Todd Reesing was able to do whatever he wanted to do. But for the first time all game, Mizzou blitzed effectively. Kevin Rutland came at Reesing on a CB blitz, and while Reesing got away, Andrew Gachkar tracked him down and forced an intentional grounding penalty (and yes, it was a good call, as the pass landed about two yards short of the line of scrimmage). Then, nursing a three-point lead, KU now-notoriously attempted to pass out of their endzone and landed two incompletions before Reesing was sandwiched by Aldon Smith and Brian Coulter. He came within about two inches of getting out of the endzone, and those two inches gave Mizzou two points in a two-point win.

Those two inches took 2009 from a decent season to a good one. Coffee is for closers.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle. How freaking big and fast did Blaine Gabbert look in those first-half keepers?? He had a 30-yarder and a 40-yarder in the first half, and while his arm was scattering some inaccurate passes in the second quarter, his legs kept Mizzou in the game before Danario took over in Q3. This goes without saying, but it really is simply amazing how much different Gabbert looks now than he did about six weeks ago, and if Mizzou has any sort of steady receiving weapon in 2010 (Jerrell Jackson, you've got all the opportunity in the world to show what you can do), I cannot wait to see what #11 might be able to do if/when healthy for an entire season.
Domino Axelrod. Remember when Danario Alexander caught eight passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and was the primary reason Mizzou broke out to a 30-point first-half lead? Yeah, that was his eighth-best game of the season. His output from just the last three games (606 yards) would have led the team in receiving in 2005. His three 200-yard receiving games in November match Mizzou's all-time total of 200-yard receiving games before November. The list of Alexander's superlatives this year top anything Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, etc., ever managed ... and trust me, I know what I just said, and I mean it. As I said during the game, we are never going to see sustained WR play like this again, and we need to soak it in for all it's worth.

Three Negatives

Bad time for the linebackers' worst game of the year. I'm a forgiving soul, and I try to stay even-keeled as much as possible. I'm willing to accept that Todd Reesing was simply in a zone for much of the game, and no matter what Missouri did on defense -- blitz, drop everybody into coverage, etc. -- he was just going to make some plays, as was (obviously) Dez Briscoe. But there was one part of the defensive play that I found completely unacceptable, particularly in the first half: coverage of Jake Sharp (and later on, Rell Lewis) out of the backfield. For three years, Sharp has been a more dangerous receiver than runner, and it was no surprise that Reesing would check down to him whenever possible. And yet we left him wide open with run to room, over and over again. For the game, Sharp/Lewis had nine catches for 120 yards. Seven of Sharp's eight catches came in the first half, and four went for first downs, including an inexcusable 17-yard reception on 3rd-and-11 from KU's 1 that allowed KU to get momentum, eventually scoring a touchdown to cap off a 99-yard drive.

How did the dump to the RBs succeed in ways it hadn't in the previous two games at Arrowhead? Who was to blame for this? Again, I have more questions than answers, but in the Cover-2 structure, the main people responsible would appear to be the outside linebackers and the cornerbacks. Indeed, in previous seasons, it was Sean Weatherspoon and Van Alexander making most of the tackles or defending the pass to the RB. Maybe the strategy changed this year, or maybe the LBs were just overloaded with coverage responsibilities considering how long the coverage lasted (thanks to the lack of a pass rush), but between Sharp's and Lewis' success, and the awful personal foul penalty on Spoon that allowed KU to prolong a drive and get seven points instead of three, and the fact that Gachkar went completely missing until the late-game sack, this did appear to be the worst game of the season for the Mizzou LB corps. We survived, and that's good, but they picked a bad time to have their worst game.
"The Scorpion". Again, all's well that ends well, but do you remember at the beginning of the season, when we thought the "Scorpion" defense (where Mizzou features three DEs in passing downs, lining up Aldon Smith at DT) was going to wreak havoc on most of Missouri's opponents? That didn't so much happen. Missouri now ranks 84th in Sack Rates+ this season, and even though things have improved in general over the last half of the season (again, while the overall pass defense was regressing), the pass rush produced almost nothing whatsoever for the game's first 55 minutes on Saturday. That's not a good thing when your general defensive strategy is to blitz as little as possible, drop a ton of defenders into coverage, and hope your pass rush gets to Reesing before somebody comes open. Reesing had a ton of time to find receivers, and his receivers are good enough that they're going to break open eventually. This was like playing Missouri in 2007, and honestly, Reesing looked better for most of Saturday than Chase Daniel did in 2007 when facing the same strategy.

Considering the mid-season improvement, and considering the overall youth of the defensive line (only Jaron Baston and Brian Coulter leave this season, and a majority of the team's DL playmakers return), I'm still guardedly optimistic about this unit in the future, especially considering how well Mizzou stopped the run in conference play, but for the season the pass rush has still been a major disappointment.
The two-point conversion. When Mizzou scored early in the third quarter to get to 21-19, I told my dad to brace himself -- with Gary Pinkel's history with the two-point conversion, there was absolutely a 100% chance that we were going for two, even though it was still early, and there were obviously a ton more points yet to be scored. It's not right, but it's what he does. And being that it's a consistent mind-set, I can more-or-less accept it even though I disagree with the strategy. But man oh man, that one point could have made a huge difference.

(And if you insist on going for two, and you've had to blow a timeout early in the half to figure out what play to call, at least make sure to not call the single most predictable play of the game after the timeout. Those five minutes, which included the decision to go for two, the blown timeout, and the awful play call, were the worst-coached five minutes of the game for Mizzou.)

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

In the end, KU's 40% success rate on passing downs was neither great nor terrible. But the plays they did make on passing downs were gigantic. The 3rd-and-11 dump-off to Sharp that set up the game's first touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Tim Biere on 3rd-and-18 that set up the second touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Briscoe on 3rd-and-9 that set up the third touchdown. And of course, the 74-yard TD bomb to Briscoe on 3rd-and-12 in the fourth quarter. On almost every KU scoring drive, Mizzou had the Jayhawks on the ropes and let them off the hook, and while Reesing deserves quite a bit of credit for the role he played in those passes, that many breakdowns is still inexcusable, and it almost cost Missouri the game.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

Rarely will I nail a game key this tremendously, but for the first 55 minutes, this game was absolutely decided by these two players. Back and forth they went, with Briscoe winning the first two quarters, Alexander almost scoring a TKO in the third quarter, and Briscoe bouncing back in the fourth. For the game, Alexander had more catches (15 to 14) and Briscoe had more yards (242 to 233), but Briscoe's two fumbles and the two miscues to Briscoe on KU's final drive give Danario the edge here. But what a freaking battle it was.

MU's Running Game

[I]f Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Again, nailed it. While Briscoe and Alexander more or less canceled each other out, thanks to Meier and Sharp, KU won the battle of the passing games. But Mizzou won the war because of Derrick Washington and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert took advantage of openings in the first half and ended up with 94 yards rushing for the game; meanwhile, Washington was the finisher, closing with 111 yards and setting up Grant Ressel's game-winner with a wonderful 27-yard run on 3rd-and-2. Throw in Jerrell Jackson's 37-yard end around for a TD, and Mizzou's running game came up bigger than it had all year. Just in time to give us extreme optimism for 2010, huh?

Summary

While at home yesterday, I watched the replay of the game on ESPNU, and it really is amazing how many times the momentum turned and, over the course of the game, how many players made contributions to this win. Blaine Gabbert with his first-half rushes and great decision-making in the second half. Jacquies Smith with the forced fumble of Briscoe, and Carl Gettis for a forced fumble and two recoveries. Danario Alexander with his third quarter for the ages. Wes Kemp with his killer down-field blocking. Jerrell Jackson with his end-around (and De'Vion Moore with his amazing blocking on the play). Kip Edwards with his interception of Reesing, ensuring a one-possession deficit at halftime. Derrick Washington with his devastating second-half rushing. Andrew Gachkar with his fourth-quarter sack. Kevin Rutland with his fantastic man-to-man defense on the bomb to Briscoe on KU's final drive. Coulter and Agent Smith for their safety. Jake Harry for getting THREE punts downed inside the 3. Grant Ressel for capping off the most improbably great kicking season ever with a ride on the shoulders of his teammates. Despite all the breakdowns and all the stress the game's first 55 minutes produced, Mizzou made every play when the game was on the line, and they came away with one of the more satisfying, endearing wins of the Pinkel era. We now await the bowl announcement, knowing that a) Missouri will finish no worse than they did in 2006 (Chase Daniel's sophomore season), and b) Todd Reesing's career ended in the same endzone in which KU's national title hopes ended two seasons ago. There's poetry, and then there's poetry.

MIZZOU-BAYLOR: ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY

Bill C. — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:00:59 -0000

I can't wait until Bill Carter can take pictures of another win, huh? What a great thing that would be...

As always, click on the pic for a bigger version.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:15:17 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I mentioned at the beginning of Saturday's postgame podcast that this was, in the end, a pretty simple game to explain. That didn't stop Ross and me from talking about it for 40+ minutes then, and it won't stop me from diving into the numbers to see what I can find. This game really was a nice reminder that Mizzou's still got a fast (and young) team with a world of potential, but if that's not reason enough to check out the stats with me, I'll just mention that there's a fun Labatt Blue reference somewhere in the post. So you've got THAT to look forward to...

	Mizzou (36)	Buffs (17)
Close %	65.7%
Field Position %	46.0%	45.0%
Leverage %	64.9%	61.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	20.9	6.9
Close Success Rate	39.6%	25.7%
Close PPP	0.34	0.05
Close S&P	0.735	0.306

RUSHING
EqPts	10.9	3.1
Close Success Rate	37.9%	27.3%
Close PPP	0.28	0.03
Close S&P	0.655	0.301
Line Yards/carry	2.54	1.00

PASSING
EqPts	10.0	3.7
Close Success Rate	41.7%	25.0%
Close PPP	0.41	0.06
Close S&P	0.831	0.308
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 13.0%	6.3% / 23.8%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	37.5%	37.8%
PPP	0.36	0.16
S&P	0.736	0.543

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	34.6%	21.7%
PPP	0.14	0.03
S&P	0.485	0.251

TURNOVERS
Number	2	4
Turnover Pts	15.8	19.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+4.1	-4.1

Q1 S&P	1.327	0.341
Q2 S&P	0.539	0.399
Q3 S&P	0.223	0.905
Q4 S&P	0.364	0.069

1st Down S&P	0.718	0.590
2nd Down S&P	0.524	0.462
3rd Down S&P	0.737	0.176

Projected Pt. Margin	+18.1	-18.1
Actual Pt. Margin	+19	-19

Reactions

Understated: Missouri's defensive success. Mizzou took on a bad offense and made them look like an NAIA offense, holding them to 176 yards and a 0.306 S&P. They were bigger, stronger and faster than CU. It was fun to watch. And with the game a play or two away from becoming competitive again, Mizzou allowed just a 0.069 S&P in the fourth quarter.
Overstated: Missouri's offensive success. Heading into this game, CU was in a battle with MU for the second-best defense in the North, but after a lovely first quarter, Mizzou did almost nothing offensively. They didn't necessarily need to do anything, and that's fine, but still.
You'll win a lot of games giving up a 0.176 S&P on third downs.
This game demonstrated the need for both efficiency and explosiveness. On Standard Downs, when many games are won and lost, MU and CU had nearly identical success rates (efficiency). But even when CU was moving efficiently, they still weren't getting anywhere. Mizzou's big-play threats--the long pass to Danario Alexander, and the nice, long runs by Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore--got Mizzou a couple of easy scores in a game where points were hard to come by in the last 35-40 minutes.
I love it when the projected and actual margins match up so perfectly.

Other thoughts after the jump.

Three Positives

I guess the defense can't count for all three, huh? You expect good defensive numbers when you face a bad offensive team, but Mizzou was positively dominant. I can't even cite a specific number to explain how dominant they were, because all of them tell the story equally well.
Aldon Smith. Agent Smith in his last two games: 16 solo tackles, 8.0 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 pass break-up. WOW. And half of that came against the best offense Missouri will see this year (Texas). With 4-6 games remaining this season, you do wonder what numbers he'll have put up by the end of the season. As I mentioned on Sunday, #85 is already threatening to leave Justin Smith's freshman numbers in the dust, and that's not even taking into account the increased pace of play-making he has put together in the last two weeks. The entire defense played well on Saturday, but this guy was a cut above the rest.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle looked fine!!! His first carry of the game was a simple 4-yarder, and all of Rock M Nation held its breath...but Gabbert not only was able to cut and change directions for the first time since September, but he also got up with no trouble. What a sigh of relief this is. Gabbert struggled after the first quarter, and CU took advantage of his further pass-telegraphing a couple of times, but if his ankle troubles are mostly behind him, we can actually start looking for signs of growth in #11 again, instead of just signs of survival.

(Also: I still can't say enough about how well he looked off the linebacker on the long TD to Danario. The LB was exactly in the way of the pass Gabbert wanted to make, so he looked to the right until the LB moved, then flicked the ball right where the LB was. Gorgeous. More of that, less locking onto receivers, please.)

And just for fun...a fourth positive:
In light of last night's 2010 post, I should point out that Aldon Smith, Kevin Rutland, Dominique Hamilton, Zaviar Gooden, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all made multiple stellar plays on defense. All of those players look better now than they did in early September, and all of them return in 2010, along with Jacquies Smith, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons, and others who have already made plenty of plays this year.

Three Negatives

After the first quarter, the offense was just horrendous. The struggles were disguised by field position and a perfect fake field goal (JACQUIES SMITH FOR TIGHT END!!!1!!!!) in the second quarter, and the offense went into an intentional shell in the fourth quarter, but still...while the Q1 pace was probably unsustainable, the S&P for the final 45 minutes was under 0.400. That's quite bad...that's almost Colorado bad (almost).
The defense took its foot off the gas just long enough to give Colorado hope. Colorado managed just 176 yards all game, but 105 of them came in back-to-back drives sandwiching halftime, and it gave Colorado some much-needed momentum. Mizzou quickly righted the ship, and you really can't expect a squad this young to not suffer a lapse at some point in a game, but regardless, the momentum CU generated there allowed them to get within two possessions in a game Mizzou led by 33 at one point.
A 37.5% success rate on Standard Downs (and resulting 64.9% leverage rate) simply will not get the job done. This was caused mostly by the second-half funk--things were still pretty strong for much of the first half; however, it's simply too low. Now matter how iffy the next few teams are on the schedule, if you put yourself into too many Passing Downs, you're begging to turn the ball over and find yourself in a closer-than-it-should-be contest. Efficiency is godliness (that's the old saying, right?), and thanks mostly to iffy running and/or run blocking after the early going, Mizzou had none of it.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Field Position

In conference play, [Colorado had] averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Field position was the major reason Mizzou found themselves up 30+ in the first half, and the major reason CU got within 16 in the second half. Mizzou does not have the same type of "could score from anywhere, at any time" offense as they did in 2007 and 2008, and the little things matter more. They cannot allow a sustained funk to take place like they did in Q3 Saturday. But on the bright side, Mizzou won the turnover points battle for the first time in conference play, though not by much.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Eight sacks and a 0.301 Rushing S&P. Um, yeah. Mizzou won this battle, to say the very least.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Mizzou's RBs: 37 carries, 161 yards, 1 TD. Good enough...or should I say...CROSE ENOUGH. Obviously the run game had plenty of issues, but it allowed Mizzou to seize the game early, and that's a net win.

Summary

Last week, we were trying to talk ourselves into Missouri still having a chance at the 2009 North title, and thanks to the way Missouri looked on Saturday, it's pretty clear that we're not just wishing and hoping. Colorado's far from good, but they were good enough to beat Kansas, and Mizzou beat them worse in Boulder than K-State beat them in Manhattan, so if you believe in the transitive property, that's a good sign for Mizzou's two remaining games away from Faurot Field. (Meanwhile, Mizzou's remaining games at Faurot are against Baylor and Iowa State, which...well, lose one of those games, and you don't deserve to win the North anyway.) The goals for 2009 were 1) make another bowl with a sickeningly young team, 2) win the North...and that's basically it. Mizzou can achieve half of its season goal with a win on Saturday, and it's shaping up to be a potentially lovely November for Gary Pinkel's Tigers.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Q&A with the Missouri Tigers Blog, Rock M Nation

irish1611 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:34:41 -0000

It is always good to sit down and discuss football with the great Missouri blog, Rock M Nation. Unfortunately for Buff fans, it has not been as fun to play Missouri the past two years. We discuss everything from Blaine Gabbert's status, the mood back in Columbia and the dissapointments in the early season among other things.

The big question on everyone's mind is around the health of Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. What is his status for Saturday and what is your opinion of his performance so far this year?

He'd been in a walking boot after the previous few games, but he was in an actual cast after the Texas game. That didn't exactly last long though, as the cast was gone Tuesday and Gabbert was back in the mix of things at practice. As for his performance this year, I apologize for the length, but allow me to copy exactly what I said to Burnt Orange Nation last week:

Gabbert's been a tale of two quarterbacks. In his first start at the college level, Gabbert was in complete control. He absolutely assaulted Illinois (25-of-33, 319 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) at a neutral site, although that victory must be accompanied by a disclaimer that explains how painfully putrid the Fightin' Zookers are this year. As insignificant as that win now seems, it did one important thing: It established that if teams were going to play the run and gamble on Gabbert to beat them in the air, he was more than capable of doing it.

The opposite was true the following week, when Bowling Green sold out in a Cover 4 to make the Missouri running game beat them. It eventually did, but not without a lot of hand wringing into the fourth quarter. During the rest of non-conference, Gabbert put up big numbers in limited time against Furman and lit up Nevada to the tune of 414 yards in his first true road game. This also happened to be the last time we saw him healthy. He was hurt early in the loss to Nebraska and hasn't been the same since.

His strength is clearly the howitzer that resides on his right arm. Missouri offensive coordinator David Yost said that in all the years he's been in the business, only Ryan Mallett has a stronger arm than Gabbert. And from what we've seen of him when healthy, he's not kidding. The kid will roll left, throw off balance against his body, flick the wrist, and watch the ball sail 70 yards. Overlooked, though, is his speed and mobility when he's healthy. Before the ankle injury, he showed deftness in the open field that combined with long strides to create one of Missouri's secret weapons when he decided to keep on the zone read. On top of that, he's been pretty aware in the pocket, as evidenced by the Nevada win in which he was avoiding rushers all night just to have the chance to put up ANY numbers, much less the 414 yards and three touchdowns that he did.

The weakness is still in the mental part of his game. Don't get me wrong, he seems like a bright guy and a student of the game, but he has a tendency to stare down his receivers. Usually, the strength of his arm allows him to get away with it, but one-legged Gabbert can't quite do that, especially against Big 12 competition. His second interception against Nebraska, during which he stared down a deep out, was particularly damaging.

What is the mood like in Columbia? You knew there would be some struggles losing a lot of productive players from a year ago but are people still believing the Big 12 North is up for grabs or have they scaled back their expectations?

It's odd because expectations really have been scaled back without any change in the potential payoff, if that makes sense. The sheer lunacy of the Big 12 North this year means that Missouri's 0-3 start isn't all that damaging to Missouri's aim at the North, especially with OSU and Texas now behind MU on the schedule.

Expectations shot through the roof after the win against Illinois, and those expectations are slowly crashing back to Earth after watching Mizzou struggle and Illinois quickly become the worst BCS conference team in the country.

But for all of Missouri's struggles, that Big 12 North crown is WIDE open if Missouri wins out. But that's a big "if," given Missouri's recent string of play. We'll know a lot more about Missouri's chances after Saturday.

What has been the biggest disappointment this season so far and what has been the biggest surprise?

The disappearance of the running game in the early season was far and away the biggest disappointment, especially because it really highlighted weaknesses in an offensive line that was supposed to be one of the North's best. Missouri returned three starters -- Elvis Fisher, Tim Barnes, and Kurtis Gregory -- and inserted a tackle -- Dan Hoch -- who was good enough last year to become the first true freshman offensive lineman ever to play under Gary Pinkel at Missouri. The running game is starting to come around a little bit, but the line's early struggles threw the Missouri fan base into an early minor panic.

I'm really not sure where to go with the biggest surprise. As much as people are looking at the last three games and crucifying the defense, it hasn't looked all that bad. There's a bit to be desired in the pass rush and the secondary had some high-profile breakdowns against Texas, but the unit has performed fairly admirably. Before the Texas debacle, the unit had avoided all of the breakdowns in communication that resulted in long play after long play for teams against MU in 2008.

Usually when we talk about Missouri it centers around the offense. Who are the playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and what do they need to do to get back on track after the past three opponents have put up 34 points a game on average?

The big name obviously is Sean Weatherspoon, but the backers at his side have been very, very solid in 2009. Luke Lambert has started at middle linebacker, but he's fought injuries all year long, which is unfortunate for him because Will Ebner has taken over and shows NO signs of ever giving the job back. Ebner is fantastic in pursuit, filling his gaps well and reading/blowing up screens perfectly on a consistent basis. He may be the hardest hitting linebacker in the Big 12 North, and a case could be made for him in that regard for the entire conference. The other backer is Andrew Gachkar, who has been particularly great on the blitz. He's been asked to be in coverage a lot, and was hung out to dry last week when he was asked to cover Jordan Shipley out of the slot pretty much all by himself.

The other name I need to bring up is Aldon Smith, who has separated himself from what people were calling a three-headed monster of him, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter. His sack numbers aren't through the roof, but he's been the end that's gotten the most consistent pressure. More than anything, he always seems to get his hands in passing lanes if he can't get all the way upfield.

Where does Missouri have the advantage this weekend over the Buffs?

I can only hope Missouri will be more battle-tested after two weeks against Oklahoma State and Texas. Other than that, I don't know that I can say where the advantages are, simply because I have no idea which Colorado OR Missouri team will show up. Both teams have played on such far ends of the spectrum this year.
Colorado wins if Blaine Gabbert isn't accurate and the Colorado offense is as opportunistic off of turnovers as it was against Kansas.

Missouri wins if the Tigers protect the football and avoid the defensive meltdown that cost them against Texas.

Anatomy of a Deflating Start: A look at Texas' first drive against Missouri

RPT — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:15:23 -0000

Is it safe to say that quite a bit went wrong in Missouri's 41-7 loss to Texas? It all started on the first drive of the game by Texas, which appeared to come far too easy. When Cody Johnson wasn't pounding away on the ground, Texas put the ball in the air three times, taking advantage of the Missouri pass defense. Did Missouri's defensive scheme open the doors to Texas' offensive revival? Here's a look at the three passing plays and what they might say in response:

PLAY 1: 14:53 remaining in 1st Quarter, 1st and 10: Colt McCoy pass complete to Jordan Shipley for 31 yards to the MU 30 for a 1st down.

Here, we see the first play from scrimmage, which will be indicative of most of the evening. Texas comes out in the Gun with the strongside to its left. Texas begins the game with 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB). McCoy has Foswhitt Whittaker to his left in the backfield, Malcolm Williams split wide to the left and Jordan Shipley in the slot. Missouri is in its base 4-3. There are two things of note as the players line up that are constant themes for the evening:

1. Shipley is highlighted in the slot, but across from him are Andrew Gachkar and Kenji Jackson. Jackson is 10+ yards removed from Shipley, and Gachkar is going to be hard pressed to close out on any outside routes because of his responsibilities in the running game.

2. When we heard Missouri was going to go a soft zone, I wasn't sure it would be THIS soft. The corner (Kevin Rutland?) is ten yards off the line of scrimmage. If this is a Cover 3, that makes a lot of sense. But if it's man coverage, then it's pretty clear that Dave Steckel REALLY doesn't trust his corners to not get beat deep.

A playaction by McCoy causes Gachkar to take one step to his left before having to recover and sprint to his right. At the top of the screen, Williams runs off the cornerback and opens up the flats for Shipley. Even before the snap, McCoy knows he's going to Shipley. The distance between Shipley and a linebacker, even one as good in pursuit as Gachkar, is too much of an advantage to pass up. If nothing else, he knows he's going left, as he can always audible into a screen for Williams.

Shipley makes the catch 2-3 yards past the line of scrimmage. The game is nine seconds old and, already, we have a test of Steckel's philosophy. If you're going to play a bend-but-don't-break soft zone and preach pursuit and tackling, you better pursue and tackle. Missouri has three players in position to minimize the gain, with Gachkar, Jackson, and the corner all stepping up. Also, on the left side of the photo, you see Lambert reengaging from behind the line of scrimmage.

With one plant of the foot, Shipley cuts inside and Gachkar flies right by him like he's a MIG from Top Gun. Now, all three of the primary pursuers are both outside of Shipley and not in the best position to angle him into other defenders. Lambert flies back into the screen, and sadly for Missouri, becomes the Tigers' best hope at preventing the first down.

Lambert dives and misses, taking out Jackson in the process and springing Shipley to the second level. Shipley rumbles for another 21 unpictured yards and the Horns have the ball at the MU 30.

EXAMINED PLAY NO. 2: 12:55 remaining in 1st Quarter; 1st and 10: Colt McCoy pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 7 yards, fumbled, recovered by Texas at the MU 13, out-of-bounds.

Texas comes out again with 11 personnel with the same formation and same look as it did in the play above. Again, Williams is uncontested by a distance of 10 yards (indicated by the gold overlay) at the line of scrimmage by the Missouri cornerback. Will Ebner and Sean Weatherspoon have stepped up closer to the line of scrimmage, with Gachkar playing at normal depth. Kenji Jackson steps up behind Gachkar, perhaps tipping off that A) Gachkar is bringing the blitz, B) Jackson is eyeing Shipley, or C) Both. In this case, it's option C.

For an offense, everything about this defensive look just BEGS for a screen or quick throw to the strong side. With that kind of cushion, you're basically daring the defense to play pitch and catch on every play and have the receiver run straight forward for a free 4-5 yards. The open slot and the deep corner means its an easy call and an easy read for the Texas offense. (All of the reasoning used here is exactly why Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel got absolutely REAMED after the loss to USC.)

Williams steps back behind the line of scrimmage as Shipley runs out of the slot to challenge the deep corner (not pictured). Highlighted on the left is Gachkar, who does indeed come on the blitz, which vacates the strongside of the field when he is unable to reach McCoy in time. The other highlight is Jackson, who will be left free, surprisingly, by Shipley.

Despite the quick throw, Missouri doesn't appear to be in horrible position. Shipley bypasses Jackson to go after the corner, perhaps trying to seal him off to free Williams down the sideline. Ebner hustles back from being upfield near the line of scrimmage to try to force Williams back out. Now it's a race to a spot. How far upfield can Williams get before he runs into Jackson and/or a wall of other defenders?

The answer is about 4-5 yards, as he's contacted by Jackson and Rutland as Shipley fails to hold his block. Williams eventually fights forward for another 2-3 yards. Again, I stress that by playing the secondary so deep, the Tigers dared the Horns to take those free yards.

Just to rub salt in the wound, Williams fumbles, only to have it go out of bounds. There's nothing to say here other than it'd be nice to have some bounces go Missouri's way one of these days against one of the "big boys" in the Big 12. With Williams' seven-yard reception here, the Longhorns have now gained 38 yards on passes that traveled a net of one yard downfield (3 yards downfield to Shipley, 2 yards behind the LOS to Williams).

EXAMINED PLAY NO. 3: Colt McCoy pass complete to Jordan Shipley for 8 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

Once again, Texas comes out in the 11 Gun, this time with the strongside to the right, with the back on McCoy's right and Shipley in the right slot. In a nice change of pace, Missouri actually puts its corners near the line of scrimmage to contest the wideouts, especially now that Missouri has an extra defender in the form of the endline. Shipley remains largely uncontested at the LOS with Jasper Simmons nine yards away.

The line helps facilitate McCoy's roll to the right by turning the Mizzou D-Line. The wideout at the bottom of the screen runs off the cornerback to free up the sideline for Shipley. Highlighted is Simmons, who has an absolute no-win of a situation developing. Without knowing the details of the play call, Simmons appears responsible not only for Shipley flaring out, but also the back coming out of the backfield if he comes available for a pass. You can make the case that Shipley was the bigger threat and therefore should have earned Simmons' attention, but either way, he's going to be in some trouble.

By taking one step upfield toward the back, Simmons frees up the easy pass to Shipley. Simmons is out of position simply by circumstance, and is left hoping that the corner can help him out.

No dice. The corner is sealed, and Shipley struts in. Simmons is left asking, "What the hell was I supposed to do?"

The sad, sad result.

The Takeaway: Dave Steckel took over defensive coordinator duties hoping to simplify the defense and minimize the potential for the back-breaking long plays that were on loop in 2008. On this drive, Missouri looks incredibly paranoid about the athletes in the Texas receiving corps beating the Tiger secondary deep. All week, we'd heard that frustrating Texas was a matter of doing exactly what Missouri had tried to do all year -- sit deep, force short throws, hustle to the ball and tackle well. We'd also heard that Missouri felt comfortable enough with its base 4-3 to leave its backers in the slot instead of opting for another defensive back, even if it meant a favorable matchup for Jordan Shipley.

But before we try to make grandiose statements about this first drive, I should reiterate: These are isolated incidents on selected plays. Furthermore, it's not hard to come to the conclusion that Texas was the physically superior team. I still need to go through the rest of the game and see how/if Mizzou adjusted, but if Missouri is systemically opening itself to surrendering a minimum 5-6 yards a play with a simple audible or check down, that could certainly cause some issues down the stretch.

All in all, trust in Dave Steckel. Somewhere in between ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK and Bend But Don't Break is a happy medium. I sure as hell don't know where it is, and here's to hoping true football minds (which I'm certainly not) get it figured out for the next five games.

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:00:18 -0000

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Alright, I've got to ask. Would Mack Brown be catching this much crap from Texas reporters and fans if he had played Colt McCoy with a sprained ankle? It's starting to annoy me a little bit. It's not a ligament tear, it's not a hairline fracture, it's not anything that is going to cause long-term problems--it's a sprain. It's going to hurt, and then it's going to get better. And especially considering Gabbert averaged 1.1 yards per pass more than Zac Robinson did on two legs (and as mentioned before, he was two drops away from 350 first-half passing yards...that's, uhh, not bad), I'm just not sure what the problem is here. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got rolled up by Donkey Kong Suh. And it's a damn shame that Missouri has now lost two games in a row in which they maybe could have won with a healthy Gabbert (definitely with Nebraska, maybe with OSU), but...that's football. Players get hurt, and when they feel good enough to play and won't cause long-term problems, they play, even if they're not at 100% effectiveness (and Gabbert absolutely isn't). The end.

(And for those suggesting Gabbert sit out the Texas game because we probably won't win anyway...come on. Gary Pinkel would be run out of town, relatively justifiably, if he actually did that. "He's saying we don't have a chance!" "He's not giving us a chance to win!!" People still resent Pinkel for getting rid of the fullback--how long would they hold a grudge if he more-or-less forfeited the Texas game to maybe do better later in the season? Gabbert should play, and Gabbert will play, and every coach in the country would have it that way.)

Anyway, with that off my chest, let's take a look back at Mizzou-OSU. Once again, the numbers tell you about what you thought they would.

	Mizzou (17)	OSU (33)
Close %	100%
Field Position %	48.5%	62.9%
Leverage %	72.1%	67.1%

TOTAL
EqPts	22.3	21.2
Close Success Rate	41.2%	41.4%
Close PPP	0.33	0.30
Close S&P	0.741	0.717

RUSHING
EqPts	6.5	7.8
Close Success Rate	52.2%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.28	0.22
Close S&P	0.806	0.622
Line Yards/carry	2.03	2.55

PASSING
EqPts	15.8	13.5
Close Success Rate	35.6%	42.9%
Close PPP	0.35	0.38
Close S&P	0.707	0.813
SD/PD Sack Rate	3.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	46.9%	53.2%
PPP	0.38	0.31
S&P	0.845	0.838

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	26.3%	17.4%
PPP	0.21	0.30
S&P	0.471	0.472

TURNOVERS
Number	4	0
Turnover Pts	19.4	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-19.4	+19.4

Q1 S&P	0.966	1.093
Q2 S&P	1.096	0.943
Q3 S&P	0.139	0.644
Q4 S&P	0.477	0.207

1st Down S&P	0.940	0.934
2nd Down S&P	0.779	0.525
3rd Down S&P	0.329	0.605

Projected Pt. Margin	-18.3	+18.3
Actual Pt. Margin	-16	+16

Reactions

Missouri outgained Oklahoma State by 42 yards, but only by 1.1 EqPts. Why? Because yards become much more valuable in opponents' field position, where the likelihood for points grows a lot faster, and Missouri got crushed in the field position game, starting three consecutive drives at their 14 as the game was being decided in the third quarter. OSU made some lovely defensive adjustments at halftime, and quite simply Blaine Gabbert didn't look as good in the second half. I remarked in the live blog that he just looked a lot stiffer after halftime, and nothing clicked for Missouri...as the numbers would attest.

A little more on Gabbert's ankle, just because. It really is a damn shame that the injury happened when it did. Here are Gabbert's season stats, before and after Suh rolled him up:

Before Ankle Injury: 92-for-139 (66.2%), 1,192 yards (8.6 per pass), 11 TD, 0 INT
After Ankle Injury: 34-for-79 (43.0%), 428 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD, 5 INT

Now, obviously it's not that simple. Before the injury, he was going against Nevada, Furman, et cetera, and after, he faced Nebraska and Oklahoma State. But still...he's gone from better-than-Ryan-Mallet numbers to worse-than-Josh-Freeman numbers as he's dropped from two good ankles to one. And at least two of the picks were directly related to the injury--the INT of the out route against Nebraska, when he clearly did not get enough juice on the ball, and the final INT against OSU, when his pass was woefully off-target. In pre-injury drives against Nebraska, he was 5-for-8 for 31 yards before the injury...and 12-for-35 for 103 yards and two picks after. With healthy legs, his numbers are still significantly better in those seven quarters, and Missouri potentially wins at least one more game. Damn you, Suh.

(And since I referenced it earlier, Jimmy Costello would probably have generated a better completion percentage than Gabbert but averaged at least a yard fewer per pass, probably two. The offensive gameplan would get extremely conservative with Costello in the game, and we haven't proven yet that our receivers, offensive line, running backs, etc., can move the ball 3-5 yards at a time. We're living and dying by the big play, and with Costello, we'd likely be without the big play.)

(And while we're at it, for the fans giving Pinkel crap for not having a capable backup...who in the Big 12 does have a capable backup? What would happen if Zac Robinson had to miss a game? Todd Reesing? Colt McCoy? Robert Griff...oh wait. Sam Bradf...oh wait. Only Texas Tech has similar quality from starter to backup...and maybe Nebraska, because apparently their starter isn't very good.)

Anyway, I promise I'm moving on now. More thoughts about OSU after the jump.

Field position, field position, field position. When your opponents are running 14% more plays in your territory than you are on theirs, you are giving yourself almost no margin for error. The third quarter was absolutely murderous for Mizzou despite the fact that the defense played damn well. But Mizzou was starting every drive from their 14, and OSU was starting every drive from midfield. When you're down seven to start the quarter, you are simply not giving yourself a chance to win.

(Now, this does come with a bit of a disclaimer: the third Mizzou drive starting at the 14 only started there becuase of the phantom hold penalty on Jasper Simmons' long kickoff return. Without that horrific call, Mizzou starts at OSU's 10, probably gets at least a field goal out of the drive, and cuts OSU's lead to either 27-20 or 27-24. But the stat sheet does not care about terrible penalty calls. The stat sheet is not sympathetic to your whines and cries. The stat sheet does not like you.)
Missouri actually stayed out of Passing Downs better than OSU did, but after some early success for Mizzou, that's where OSU clamped down the best on defense. They were much more mindful of the deep ball, and they relied on Gabbert inability to fire slants and outs as accurately.
Two conclusions can be drawn from the run-pass stats: 1) Missouri should have run more, and 2) OSU should have thrown more. OSU runs to soften you up as much as anything, but they just did not have much success there, and credit to Mizzou's defense for that. The Cowboys kept waiting for Mizzou to fall apart defensively and start getting gashed by the run, and it just didn't happen. Meanwhile, this really was a solid rushing performance for Mizzou, but as quickly as they found themselves in Passing Downs in the second half, the opportunity to work on the run never came about after halftime. Of course, David Yost and company still could have run the ball more, especially in those short-yardage situations late, but that's life. They clearly don't quite trust the run yet (it's not without just cause), and they probably won't during the Texas game either. Starting with Colorado on Halloween, they can start piling up the rushing yards.
Neither team generated any sort of pass rush whatsoever. We knew OSU didn't have much of a rush, but we hoped Mizzou's athletic ends would be getting at the QB more than they have this year. Granted, a less mobile quarterback would have been sacked 2-3 times Saturday night--Zac Robinson did an awesome job of evading the rush, but still...2-3 times still isn't that much, especially considering how many Passing Downs OSU attempted.
If you were to define the traits of a super-young football team, I think #1 would be "Struggles on Third Downs." Success on third downs is the last to come on offense, and...well, it hasn't come yet for Missouri. As Sean Weatherspoon said to that kid in the commercial, in due time. In due time.

Three Positives

The Defense. Yes, OSU was without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. But every offense Missouri has faced this season has performed below its season averages, and considering how much Mizzou's defense was up against the wall, and how much better it performed as the game wore on, they deserve major kudos. Hubert Anyiam had eight catches for 93 yards in the first half...and two for 26 in the second. OSU threw to him seven times in the second half and completed only two. They adjusted almost as well to OSU's offense as OSU's defense did to Mizzou's offense
Danario Alexander. A no-brainer. We fretted often before the season that this team didn't have a #1 receiver. It does, and he's a really, really good one. The passing game clearly isn't clicking on all cylinders, but it is not because of the lack of a go-to guy. You just can't go to the go-to guy on every pass, unfortunately.
The ~~Utes~~ Youths. Of the twelve players who made more than one non-special teams tackle Saturday night (sorry, Chris Willett, you don't count), ten are underclassmen. Andrew Gachkar looked great, Dominique Hamilton looked good, Jasper Simmons and Kenji Jackson looked good, Carl Gettis is back to being a helluva cornerback, Aldon Smith blocked two passes, Robert Steeples and Kip Edwards both got playing time and (aside from one play, where Steeples got burned and Simmons bailed him out) made the most of it. The anchor of this defense is still clearly Sean Weatherspoon, and obviously he will be gone in 2010, but there is a lot to like about this defense's future.

Three Negatives

Turnovers -- too many of them. It does not take a stat nerd to realize that you simply are not going to win many games with a -4 turnover differential. (Yes, here's another disclaimer: it should have been a -2 turnover differential instead, of course. Jasper Simmons' fumble was pretty clearly not a fumble, and Keith Toston fumbled late, but the replay official decided that he just wanted to end the game and go home instead of actually making the correct call. That, and the monitor from which he was basing his decisions was smaller than my work monitor...which isn't very big.)

In fact, since turnover margin is such an easy concept to understand, instead of elaborating further, I will instead point out this wonderful quote from Dave Steckel:
Finally, from the "There's no Such Thing as a Stupid Question Department," I asked Steckel to explain how small a defense's margin for error becomes against a quarterback like Texas' Colt McCoy, who completes 70 percent of his passes. His answer: "30 percent. That's called modern math. You asked."
Turnovers -- not enough of them. I have been quite pleased with the defense's development this year in terms of overall yardage allowed. But in struggling to find a pass rush, playing soft coverage at CB, and not having safeties experienced enough to play the ball better, they have intercepted only two passes. Clearly there are two parts to the turnover differential equation--committing them and forcing them. Mizzou has committed too many recently, but they also haven't forced enough.

Now...it's easy to just say "They need to force more turnovers!" and leave it at that, but that obviously comes with a price. You force turnovers by taking chances, and that opens you up to giving up more big plays. If I had to choose between either giving up few big plays or forcing a lot of turnovers, I'd go with the former. But as the defense gets more and more experienced, as maybe the young Agents Smith start to generate a better pass rush, and as the defensive backs get better at reading instead of reacting (and as the offenses on the schedule get worse), I hope that more takeaways will come.
Drops. Duh. You knew I'd have to mention this at least one more time. I understand that Blaine Gabbert probably throws passes too hard sometimes, but receivers go to college for free, with the understanding that their major job is to not drop passes. Two drops cost Mizzou at least 14 points Saturday night...in a game they lost by 16. This can't happen, especially now, when Gabbert is facing added degree of difficulty. The receivers need to help him out more than they are--only Danario Alexander is handling Gabbert's passes well enough.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Make Robinson dink and dunk

They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

No 40-yard gains for OSU, not even any 30-yarders, but to the extent that OSU's passing game succeeded on Saturday, it was due to the more intermediate passes. Four players caught passes of at least 20 yards, and while Missouri succeeded overall on defense, this did let OSU off the hook a few times.

Third Downs

[W]hen Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Missouri's defense was wonderful on Passing Downs, allowing OSU successes on fewer than 20% and a Passing Downs S&P of 0.472. Unfortunately, Missouri's own 0.471 S&P negated any advantage that came from this.

Run the freaking ball well

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

They did indeed run well...for a while. In the second half, they neither ran well nor got the opportunity. In the decisive third quarter, Missouri backs got two carries...that went for a combined one yard. It was a step in the right direction for the running game, but as mentioned above, it is clear from the play-calling that the coaching staff does not yet trust the running game against a real defense. With Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Kansas still on the schedule, the opportunity to get things going will present itself.

Summary

I'll just reiterate what we've been saying for the last week. BIG PICTURE, PERSPECTIVE, POSITIVITY, etc. No matter what happens on Saturday, the back half of Missouri's schedule is ripe for the picking. Nebraska generated a lot of positivity in the off-season by basically feasting on the crap teams on the back half of their schedule, and Missouri has a chance to do the same this year. Missouri just needs to perform well against Texas, stick together, and allow Blaine Gabbert to work through his pains, of both the physical and growing variety, and come out of the experience a better quarterback. With a healthy quarterback and a ton of underclassmen (now's a good time for a reminder: depending on the week, between 25 and 30 members of Missouri's two-deep are freshmen and sophomores) getting more and more experienced, this team could catch fire in the second half of the season if they can just avoid mental implosion in this tough three-game stretch.

It's a damn shame that Missouri couldn't beat either Nebraska or Oklahoma State--with the way the defense played, both games were there for the taking--but it's in the past. If Missouri loses to Texas, we'll read lots of stories and message board posts about how Missouri's falling apart, and in the basement of the North, and...who cares? Me, I'm for wasting sportswriters' time. So, I'd like to hang around and see if we can give 'em all a nice, big shitburger to eat.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Mizzou Links, 10-16-09

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 10:55:42 -0000

Mizzou-OSU Links!

The Trib (Dave Matter): Writer's Block: Talking Cowboys

BTS: What kind of impact has coordinator Bill Young made on the defense and the program in general?

Chatmon: Bill Young has had a great impact on the defense. He preaches forcing turnovers and aggressive play. His main thing was to put his players in positions to use their talent and make plays and it is clear the defense has improved. How much remains to be seen.

Haisten: In every sense, the Cowboys are better. There are fewer missed tackles and fewer blown coverage assignments. During last week's 36-31 victory at Texas A&M, OSU totaled nine quarterback pressures, four sacks and eight pass break-ups. In 13 games last season, OSU's defense managed only 16 sacks. Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma had a combined total of 196 pass attempts against the Cowboys. In those games, OSU totaled only three sacks. Through five games this season, the Cowboys have 11 sacks. For the 12-game regular season, they are on pace for 26. Seven of this year's 11 sacks have been recorded by linemen. Last season, OSU got only 9½ sacks from linemen. Entering the Missouri game, the Cowboys are 60th in total defense (improved from last season's 93rd), 37th in rush defense (improved from 52nd) and 89th in pass defense (improved from 109th).
KC Star: Mizzou can get season back on track with redemption at OSU
Tulsa Beacon: OSU hosts Missouri without Dez Bryant, Kendall Hunter
The Missourian: 10 Things to think about while driving to Oklahoma State
Pistol Pete, the mascot version, is super creepy. The Cowboy mascot is supposed to be a likeness to Frank Eaton, the real-life cowboy known as Pistol Pete. There's just one problem. When it comes to mascots you got to go full-on caricature or not go at all. Okie St. ended up with a regular-sized guy, a super gigantic head and way too realistic facial features. It makes for a terrifying combination. There's a lot of pain behind those enormous eyes.
Daily Oklahoman: OSU's Keith Toston does it all for mom
Daily Oklahoman: Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert puts up big numbers
PowerMizzou: Cowboy Insider: Five questions for Saturday
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Webcast: Episode 10, Part 1
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Webcast: Episode 10, Part 2

Mizzou Links, 10-14-09

Bill C. — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:13:43 -0000

Mizzou-OSU Links!

Post-Dispatch: Mizzou feels depleted OSU is still formidable opponent
Mizzou (4-1 overall, 0-1 Big 12) might face a less-daunting task than it first would have appeared when it plays at 8:15 p.m. Saturday at Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-0) — where the Tigers have won on their last four visits.

But MU, of course, has matters of its own to resolve, from resuscitating a running game averaging 3.6 yards a carry to adding insulation to a defense that gave up 27 points in the fourth quarter in last week's 27-12 collapse against Nebraska.

And OSU, which put the first dent in then-No. 4 MU's 2008 ambitions with a 28-23 win in Columbia, hardly is caving in — whether or not it gets reinforcements this week.
The Missourian: Oklahoma State prepares for Missouri
The Trib: Blaine Gabbert looks likely to play at Oklahoma State
Tulsa World: Know The Foe: Missouri Tigers
Palestra.net: Mizzou Learns Lessons From First Loss

Bowl Game	Opponent
Tostitos Fiesta and/or BCS National Championship Game
AT&T Cotton	SEC
Valero Alamo	Pac-10
Insight	Big Ten
Pacific Life Holiday	Pac-10
Texas	Big Ten
New York Yankees	Big East

SB Nation - Andrew Gachkar

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Kansas(39)

Mizzou(41)

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

MIZZOU-BAYLOR: ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(36)

Buffs(17)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Q&A with the Missouri Tigers Blog, Rock M Nation

Anatomy of a Deflating Start: A look at Texas' first drive against Missouri

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(17)

OSU(33)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Mizzou Links, 10-16-09

Mizzou Links, 10-14-09

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Mizzou
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Mizzou
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Mizzou
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