SB Nation - Terrell Resonno

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Mizzou Links, 10-7-09

Bill C. — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:51:09 -0000

An outbreak of MU-NU smack talk, a ZouDave video, picks, lots of fanposts, lots of hits (for us)...was yesterday the best day ever for Rock M Nation?

Mizzou-Nebraska Links!

The Missourian: What you need to know for MU-Nebraska parking
- The Maryland Avenue parking garage and Parking Structure No. 7 near University Hospital will not be open to the public for parking as it typically is for Saturday home games. These garages will be restricted to student and employee parking only, Joy said.
- Because of these garage restrictions, there will be about 2,000 fewer game-day parking spaces than normal.
- The five on-campus garages open to the public free of charge are Conley Avenue, Hitt Street, Turner Avenue, University Avenue and Virginia Avenue.
The Missourian: Heavy rain possible during Missouri-Nebraska game Thursday
The Trib (Dave Matter): Behind the Numbers: MU-NU, Part II

Here's something you can't really measure in numbers but could be a factor on Thursday. Defense, especially run defense, is played with controlled rage, a channeled emotion. And, barring a torrential monsoon, the atmosphere on Thursday promises a setup to favor those emotions. In Missouri's last two home games against Nebraska, the Tigers fed off that atmosphere and smothered the Nebraska run, holding them to minus-2 yards on 19 carries in 2005 (thanks to a bushel of sacks of Zac Taylor), and in 2007 limited the Huskers to 3.0 yards a carry. Last year's game in Lincoln, MU was even better against the run, holding Nebraska to 2.3 yards a pop. Much will depend on Missouri's ability to control the line of scrimmage, and for that, look no further than the man lined up next to nose tackle Jaron Baston. This is a huge game for D-tackles Dominique Hamilton and Terrell Resonno. They cannot be pushed around inside. Those two have to hold their ground in the trenches.

That reminds me of a comment Resonno made to me back in August, something he can prove against the Huskers: "You got to be nasty to play defensive line. When I first got here, I didn’t know what that meant. But I’m nasty, though. I can get nasty. Sometimes I can be nice, but if you push my buttons, I can be a nasty mother... . So, that’s about it."
The Trib: Running woes dragging Tigers down some
MUtigers.com: Football Fan Primer
Dr. Saturday: On the Spot: 'Husker D can't be back in Black until it reverses track at Missouri
Nebraska currently leads the nation in scoring defense, giving up seven points per game on just 286 yards. Of course, there are only so many concrete conclusions you can take away from an early schedule against Sun Belt also-rans Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette, interrupted only by the relative offensive juggernaut of Virginia Tech, which managed to rip out Nebraska's heart with a single long ball despite doing nothing offensively the rest of the day. By contrast, Missouri will be wielding the nation's 16th-ranked offense and one of its most efficient passers, Blaine Gabbert, who has 11 touchdowns, zero picks and has lived up to all of the recruiting hype in his first four starts. This will be the big litmus test of whether the Cornhuskers' pass defense, their Achilles heel over the past three seasons, has made the meaningful progress the numbers have suggested so far.
The Missourian: Pelini wants Nebraska's defense to earn Blackshirts
PowerMizzou: The here and now
"I see a lot of similarities between that team and this team," linebacker Sean Weatherspoon said. "But you really won't know until you go out there every week. You've got to go out there and grow as a team, and that's what the 2007 team did. The seniors did a great job leading, and hopefully we can put it together again."

One difference, however, is the confidence level. This isn't 2003, when Missouri beat Nebraska for the first time in 24 years. This isn't 2005, when Missouri extended its winning streak at home over Nebraska to two. The Tigers have won four of the last six meetings by an average of 26 points. In fact, only a handful of players saw the field the last time Missouri lost to Nebraska, in 2006.

"I'm one of the very few guys that was here the last time they beat us," defensive tackle Jaron Baston. "I think about it a lot. I still want to continue that winning tradition that Missouri has over Nebraska."
PowerMizzou: Tigers vs Huskers: The Variables
Post-Dispatch: MU has something to prove
Post-Dispatch: Are the Nebraska Cornhuskers behind the '08 ball?
KC Star: Missouri hopes to get running game going against Nebraska
KC Star (Campus Corner): Munir Prince Out for Mizzou
KC Star (Campus Corner): "Runaround Suh" - What's Your Favorite Sports song? (I almost didn't post this because of the brutal title)
Lincoln Journal Star: Zac Lee expected to play key role in battle against Tigers (You think so, huh? The quarterback is expected to play a key role?)
Omaha World-Herald: Mum's the word for MU's Blaine Gabbert
Omaha World-Herald: Missouri natives will get reacquainted
Nebraska State Paper: All Eyes on Blaine
Palestra.net: Missouri Prepared for Nebraska

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:00:54 -0000

An easy win doesn't always bring with it an interesting box score, but there are many interesting things to talk about from Mizzou's Braggin' Rights (yeah, that's what I called it) win...

Mizzou (37)		Illinois (9)
	% Close = 56.3%
42.2%	Field Position %	34.7%
71.8%	Leverage %	72.2%

	TOTAL
71	Plays	72
28.7	EqPts	16.4
40.9%	Success Rate	44.4%
0.40	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.812	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.673

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
47	Plays	34
16.6	EqPts	6.8
42.6%	Success Rate	44.1%
0.35	PPP	0.20
0.778	S&P	0.640

	RUSHING
7.7	EqPts	6.7
40.0%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.11	PPP	0.16
0.507	S&P	0.558
2.36	Line Yards/carry	2.47

	PASSING
20.9	EqPts	9.7
44.4%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.53	PPP	0.26
0.980	S&P	0.757
4.4%	SD Sack Rate	0.0%
7.1%	PD Sack Rate	17.7%

	STANDARD DOWNS
43.1%	Success Rate	51.9%
0.39	PPP	0.25
0.821	S&P	0.774

	PASSING DOWNS
35.0%	Success Rate	25.0%
0.44	PPP	0.16
0.791	S&P	0.408

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	2
0.00	Turnover Pts	8.66
+8.66	Turnover Pts Margin	-8.66

0.890	Q1 S&P	0.833
0.466	Q2 S&P	0.468
1.215	Q3 S&P	0.881
0.825	Q4 S&P	0.742

0.869	1st Down S&P	0.760
0.607	2nd Down S&P	0.711
0.939	3rd Down S&P	0.546

+21.0	Projected Pt. Margin	-21.0
+28	Actual Pt. Margin	-28

As a refresher...

Field Position % = the percentage of plays you ran in the other team's field position. The higher, the better.
Leverage % = the percentage of plays you ran that were Standard Downs instead of Passing Downs. The lower the %, the more tough situations you were in.
SD Sack Rate and PD Sack Rate = Standard Downs Sack Rate and Passing Downs Sack Rate. PD Sack Rate will usually be higher. I average the two together for an "Adjusted Sack Rate" figure you see from time to time.
Projected Pt. Margin = Adding together EqPts and Turnover Pts Margin, you can get an idea for how the game should have unfolded. For instance, in this game Mizzou outgained Illinois by 12.3 EqPts and held an 8.7-point Turnover Points Margin, leading to a projected +21.0 pt. margin.

Thoughts and more after the jump...

Reactions

With similar Leverage %, Mizzou turned the game, in part, by winning the field position battle. They moved the ball a bit more and punted wonderfully, and those were the main causes. Illinois faced longer fields (after the first quarter, anyway), and Mizzou capitalized.
We'll get into this more below, but the 0.20 PPP that Illinois averaged while the game was close is staggeringly low. They absolutely missed Benn, probably more than we even assume, but Missouri's "keep everything in front of you and make Juice throw passes he's not comfortable throwing" strategy worked perfectly. And with the push the defensive line got, I'm not sure having Daniel Dufrene would have helped at all in the running game. They had room to run outside a couple of times, but that's about it.
Neither team ran the ball worth a damn. We'll come back to this one too.
Jamming the run on Standard Downs + Nailing the QB on Passing Downs = win. If the Mizzou defense can do these things this well all season, look out. Again, this all comes with the "As far as we know, Illinois really might not be very good" qualifier, but it was still a lovely defensive performance.
This game was won on Passing Downs. Mizzou was solid but not amazing, while Illinois never did a damn thing.

The main causes of the 7-point deviation between the projected point margin and actual margin: 1) Execution in the other team's territory. Illinois peed on themselves, while Mizzou always got at least a field goal out of their trips. 2) Special teams. Neither team did much in the return game, but Jake Harry's rugby kicks were perfect. I really do expect that style of punting to catch on even more this year--it's just so freaking effective if you're even remotely decent at it. Meanwhile, Grant Ressel kicked three big-time field goals (two from beyond 40 yards), while Illinois missed a PAT. Whoops.

Three Positives

It would really be disengenuous to start with anything other than Blaine Gabbert here, wouldn't it? With Illinois keying on the Mizzou run, particularly from the RBs (and shutting them down effectively), the game was on Gabbert's shoulders, and he was more than up for the task. He's the reason Mizzou would have won this game even if Illinois was completely healthy on offense. Illinois lost a ton--imagine losing Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore, and Danario Alexander, plus Jared Perry for a quarter or two?--but I can honestly say that with the way Gabbert played, Mizzou would have won with Kendial Lawrence, Gilbert Moye, Jerrell Jackson, Wes Kemp, etc., playing bigger roles.

The best part about Gabbert's performance is that, looking at the numbers, it looks pretty sustainable. The 0.980 Passing S&P was actually well below last year's season average of 1.082, and the 0.791 Passing Downs S&P was below last year's 0.828. Those numbers could actually improve as Gabbert gets his sea legs. Meanwhile, the Rushing S&P may have been unsustainably low. In other words, not only may the offensive performance have been relatively sustainable, but it could be expected to improve.
We took for granted how good Mizzou's rush defense was last year, but it was even better in Week One of this year. Against an average offensive line, Mizzou got a major up-the-middle push most of the time, with both Terrell Resonno and (especially) Dominique Hamilton playing very well next to Jaron Baston, but the ends were very good in pursuit to the sidelines. Aldon Smith in particular was outstanding in stringing plays to the outside and, in a couple of situations, making the tackle too. If it turns out that our defensive line is even better than last year's, then WOW does that open up the linebackers to wreak havoc both against the run and in pass coverage.
Blaine Gabbert and Juice Williams combined to complete eight passes for 19 yards or more. Gabbert completed seven of them. I previously expressed that I was concerned about the lack of big-play threats in the passing game, but Wes Kemp (receptions of 49 and 21 yards), Jared Perry (46, 28), and especially Danario Alexander (31, 29, and 19) went a very long way toward alleviating those concerns. Mizzou had big plays in every way possible: defensive breakdowns (Kemp's 49-yarder), great mid-range catch-and-runs (most of Danario's big catches), bubble screens with amazing blocking (Perry's 46-yarder), and just unbelievable throws from Gabbert (Perry's 28-yarder). It appears that Mizzou's receivers are just good enough that defenses will need to account for them more than Illinois did, and that will (in theory) re-open the running game.

Three Negatives

Gotta start with the running game. Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore combined for 22 carries on Saturday. Seven were successful. The 22 carries accounted for a total of 3.6 EqPts and an S&P of just 0.481. Ouch. Mizzou's S&P last year was 0.890, and while there's no doubt that Illinois' strategy was to attack the run and make Gabbert beat them (whoops), Mizzou still should have produced more than they did. The pass blocking was good after the first drive, so the offensive line wasn't completely disappointing, but both the run blocking (2.36 line yards per carry was atrocious for a team that averaged 3.16 last season) and the actual running (less dancing, please) need to get tightened up starting Saturday. And it will have to happen without De'Vion Moore, who is out with an apparently minor high ankle sprain.
This is nit-picking, but while Mizzou came with a big-time rush on Passing Downs, Juice Williams had all day to pass on Standard Downs. Now, part while Juice had plenty of time to throw, he didn't have any good targets to hit, so the lack of pressure wasn't detrimental, but you'd still like to see this improve a bit as the Lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter continues to come into its own.
I'm really reaching here, but I'm not really sure we're going to get anything from the return game this year. The kick return game has a little bit of potential, but Carl Gettis doesn't look particularly comfortable catching punts, and I think the main goal at PR this year is simply not fumbling.

Three Keys Revisited

From Thursday's preview, here were the keys to the game and how they unfolded on Saturday.

The Line

The battle of Mizzou's O-line vs the Illinois D-line was something of a wash, as Mizzou won the pass blocking battle while Illinois disrupted Mizzou's running game pretty well. The other battle, however, was completely in Mizzou's favor. Mizzou's defensive tackles repeatedly blew up the inside of the Illini's O-line, while their DE speed was also quite prevalent. Advantage: Mizzou.

The Bomb

As mentioned above, Mizzou won this battle going away, and probably would have even if Benn hadn't gotten hurt. Advantage: Mizzou.

The Turnover

The team with the new QB fumbles once and loses no turnovers. The team with "The Rodney Dangerfield of Quarterbacks*" loses two reasonably costly turnovers, one resulting in Mizzou taking over in field goal range, and the other costing them at least a field goal attempt in Mizzou territory. Advantage: Mizzou.

* I really feel kind of bad mocking Juice Williams. He seems, by all accounts, to be a really good kid and a good representative of the University of Illinois. But he's simply not the quarterback everybody has been saying he is for three years now, and it makes him a very easy target. And for Mark May to say that Juice doesn't get any respect is mind-boggling.

Summary

Not a lot more to say here. This was a great way to start the season, even if it turns out that Illinois isn't very good. Mizzou will get tested by Bowling Green's passing defense, and I welcome the challenge--clearly Mizzou will face plenty of good passing games this year, and it's good to be tested early. I look for the Mizzou offense to slowly improve as the season progresses, but the defense is still a bit of a mystery to me, and I want to see what they can do against the Clawfense.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Bill C. — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 14:00:09 -0000

Pretty sure our current #11 is better. No offense, Jimmy D. (Via The Trib's R.C. Adams)

Almost ten years ago to the day, Missouri was at a precipice. Two years of unprecedented (in recent terms, anyway) winning broke Mizzou back into the land of respectability, but a lot of seniors had departed. Corby Jones, Devin West, Harold Piersey, Caldrinoff Easter, Marquis Gibson, Craig Heimburger, etc. Mizzou was going to be young in 1999, but they had exciting potential. Recruiting had improved! And speed! Mizzou had turned the corner as a program, and most fans truly believed that there was no turning back.

Sound familiar? Of course it does.

Missouri enters 2009 in a similar position--after two years of breaking through to a new level of wins and respectability, they have to now try to keep up momentum with a fresh bunch of young players. There is, of course, the faith that recruiting has improved, and that the program is in good shape heading into the future, but until Missouri actually proves that they are here to stay, we don't know for sure that that is the case.

In 1999, a young team quickly faced reality. After the offense carried the defense through two high-scoring wins (31-28 over UAB, 48-34 over Western Michigan), the infamous Ben Davidson game against Nebraska (Davidson snap back-to-back punts over the punter's head early in the game) was a nice slap in the face. After beating Memphis and losing a back-and-forth OT game against Colorado (still one of the most amazing games I've ever seen in person), disaster struck. Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Farmer broke his leg against Iowa State, and the offense fell apart. They were up 14-0 in the second quarter at the time of Farmer's broken leg, and over the final 5.5 games of the season, Mizzou would score just 48 points...34 of which came against Texas Tech. They would score a combined 14 points against Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Kansas State (all 14 coming in garbage time against ATM, with Justin Gage at QB), and in less than 12 months, Larry Smith went from "could run for Mayor of Columbia" to "could conceivably be fired."

Could the bottom fall out in 2009? Probably not, but of course it's a possibility. It's always a possibility if the right (well, wrong) things happen. The best thing to do a week away from the start of the season is compare the 1999 roster and schedule to 2009's. Remember, Mizzou went 4-7 in 1999...and they are predicted by multiple analysts (Phil Steele and Bruce Feldman to name two) to miss a bowl and have a similar record in 2009.

(For a further refresher on 1999, here's a pre-spring depth chart and the final 1999 statistics.)

After some early struggles, the Mizzou defense wasn't really that bad. The worst part of the defense was an offense that was going three-and-out about 17 times a game down the stretch.

Let's take a look at the (rough) depth charts for each year and see which team had the advantage, and in which areas.

Offense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
QB	Jim Dougherty (6'3, 190, So.) Kirk Farmer (6'4, 200, RSFr.)	QB	Blaine Gabbert (6'5, 240, So.) Jimmy Costello (6'3, 225, So.)	2009
TB	DeVaughn Black (5'11, 203, Sr.) Zain Gilmore (6'1, 205, So.)	RB	Derrick Washington (6'0, 225, Jr.) De'Vion Moore (5'9, 195, So.)	2009
WR	Kent Layman (5'11, 187, Sr.) Eric Spencer (6'1, 165, So.)	WR	Danario Alexander (6'5, 215, Sr.) L'Damian Washington (6'4, 180, Fr.)	2009
WR	~~John Dausman (6'1, 184, Jr.)~~ Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.) Kareem Wise (6'3, 216, Sr.)	WR	Jared Perry (6'1, 180, Sr.) Jerrell Jackson (6'1, 190, So.) Rolandis Woodland (6'3, 200, RSFr.)	2009
FB	Rob West (6'0, 240, Sr.) Joe Chirumbolo (6'2, 246, Fr.)	WR	Wes Kemp (6'4, 225, So.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, So.)	2009
TE	Dwayne Blakely (6'4, 256, So.) Brandon Ford (6'3, 245, So.)	TE	Andrew Jones (6'5, 245, So.) Michael Egnew (6'6, 230, So.)	Draw
LT	Aaron Crittendon (6'5, 280, So.) Mike Ostendorf (6'5, 250, So.)	LT	Elvis Fisher (6'5, 300, So.) Mike Prince (6'3, 300, Jr.)	2009
LG	Joe Glauberman (6'3, 300, So.) Wes Wilson (6'4, 280, RSFr.)	LG	Austin Wuebbels (6'4, 305, So.) Jayson Palmgren (6'2, 305, So.)	Draw
C	Rob Riti (6'3, 285, Sr.) Mike Hayes (6'3, 298, So.)	C	Tim Barnes (6'4, 310, Jr.) Travis Ruth (6'3, 305, RSFr.)	1999
RG	Adrian Cole (6'4, 306, So.) J.P. Hall (6'4, 265, RSFr.)	RG	Kurtis Gregory (6'5, 305, Sr.) J.T. Beasley (6'4, 295, So.)	2009
RT	Justin Bland (6'6, 316, So.) Brad Smith (6'6, 289, Sr.)	RT	Dan Hoch (6'7, 320, So.) Jack Meiners (6'6, 305, Fr.)	2009

K	Brad Hammerich (6'3, 176, So.) Brian Long (5'11, 203, So.)	K	Grant Ressel (6'2, 190, So.) Tanner Mills (6'2, 200, Sr.)	1999
PR	Arty Johnson (5'10, 168, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	PR	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, Fr.)	Draw

Thoughts:

Of the 13 slots listed above, the 2009 team appears to have the advantage in eight, the 1999 team has the advantage in two, and there are three draws.
I love Tim Barnes, but Rob Riti was an All-American, so he gets the edge.
Joe Glauberman and Austin Wuebbels are actually in a similar situation--overshadowed by more high profile recruits, they quietly locked down a starting slot.
One pleasant surprise stemming from 1999 was the kicking of Brad Hammerich. If Grant Ressel, Tanner Mills or Trey Barrow end up being a similar pleasant surprise in 2009, I don't think anybody would complain.
I loved Kent Layman to death, but...yeah, Danario's better. Much, much better. And a moment of silence, please, for John Dausman's knees.

Defense

1999		2009
Pos.	Player	Pos	Player	Advantage
DE	Justin Smith (6'5, 267, So.) Daryl Whittington (6'6, 227, Jr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (6'4, 250, So.) Brad Madison (6'4, 260, RSFr.)	1999
DT	Jeff Marriott (6'5, 288, Sr.) Cedric Harden (6'3, 275, RSFr.)	DT	Jaron Baston (6'1, 305, Sr.) Jimmy Burge (6'2, 285, RSFr.)	2009
DT	Steve Erickson (6'4, 280, Jr.) Terrell Jurineack (6'4, 271, Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (6'6, 295, So.) Dominique Hamilton (6'6, 300, So.)	1999
DE	Pat Mingucci (6'2, 266, Sr.) Danny McCamy (6'3, 250, Jr.)	DE	Brian Coulter (6'4, 250, Sr.) Aldon Smith (6'5, 255, RSFr.)	2009
OLB	Pat "TV's Patrick" Duffy (6'3, 236, So.) Josh O'Neal (6'1, 230, RSFr.)	OLB	Sean Weatherspoon (6'2, 250, Sr.) Donovan Bonner (6'2, 240, Fr.)	2009
Sam	Barry Odom (6'0, 219, Sr.) Michael Clay (6'3, 255, RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (6'3, 235, Jr.) Will Ebner (6'1, 230, So.)	1999
Will	Jamonte Robinson (6'2, 210, So.) Duke Revard (6'3, 232, So.)	OLB	Andrew Gachkar (6'3, 230, Jr.) Zaviar Gooden (6'2, 225, RSFr.)	Draw
CB	Carlos Posey (6'0, 202, Sr.) John McPherson (5'11, 175, RSFr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.) Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)	2009
CB	Antoine Duncan (5'10, 190, RSFr.) Andre Roberson (5'10, 172, Jr.)	CB	Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.) Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)	2009
FS	Julian Jones (5'11, 189, Jr.) Rodger Winston (6'1, 220, Sr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.) Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)	Draw
SS	Clarence Jones (6'1, 180, So.) Harold Hendricks (6'3, 207, Jr.)	SS	Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.) Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)	2009

P	Vince "00" Sebo (6'1, 228, Sr.) Jared Gilpin (5'10, 168, So.)	P	Jake Harry (6'1, 195, Sr.) Matt Grabner (6'4, 200, So.)	2009
KR	Ricardo Rhodes (5'6, 174, Jr.) Travis Garvin (6'1, 182, Fr.)	KR	Jasper SImmons (6'1, 205, Jr.) Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)	Draw

That's right, this team had players named Brad Smith and Pat Duffy...plus, there was a Stephen Colbert to boot. Hey, every team's gotta be good at something, and Mizzou 1999 was good at...having good names.
So that's seven in favor of 2009, three for 1999, and three draws.
Really, I'm giving Andrew Gachkar a decent amount of faith there because Jamonte Robinson was pretty damn good (94 tackles, 13 TFL/sacks, 5 passes broken up). Gack won't put together those stats, but he can be just as useful for the defense at hand. In the Larry Smith defense, all tackles were filtered to the Sam and Will (the OLB was as much of a DE as a linebacker), so Jamonte and his eight-foot arms were bound to rack up the tackles, though the 13 TFL/sacks is a really nice number. If only Jamonte were 25 pounds heavier, he was good enough to play in the pros. I'm challenging you, Gack--I'm saying that you're as right for this offense as Jamonte was for his...prove me right.
Carlos Posey had a really interesting career at Mizzou. He scored more touchdowns than any defensive back I can remember, but he was virtually nonexistant in 1999, registering one INT and just 29 tackles. I realize The Carl Gettis Treatment isn't a fan favorite at this point, but I think he still has the edge.
Not much of a Hardy Ricks fan, but I really wasn't a Clarence Jones fan. And while I love Kenji Jackson, I loved Julian Jones, so that's a draw.
Sean Weatherspoon vs TV's Patrick Duffy is one of the most unfair comparisons in the history of the world. Mizzou's 2009 team should really get about six advantages just from this matchup.

So as a whole, as one would expect, the 2009 team is much more proven, much more talented, and much faster. What about the other teams on Mizzou's schedule?

The Opponents

Needless to say, the North Division was in much better shape in 1999. Nebraska started the season ranked #6, Colorado #15, and Kansas State (facing similar rebuilding prospects in 1999 as Mizzou is in 2009, but getting a bit more respect) #20. The South was represented by #7 Texas A&M (a Mizzou 1999 opponent) and #17 Texas (not).

Whereas the North this year is represented by the #24 and #25 teams in the AP preseason poll, the North in 1999 was the class of the conference, with three teams in the Top 20. Their South opponents, meanwhile, were coming off of a conference title (ATM), a 7-5 record (Texas Tech), and one of the biggest upgrades in the history of coaching changes (OU, going from John Blake to Bob Stoops).

In 2009, Missouri faces, to say the least, a much less intimidating slate of opponents in the North division. The two favorites--Nebraska and Kansas--have pretty well-defined question marks and barely slipped into the preseason polls, and the other three division opponents--ISU, KSU, Colorado--have been outscored by Mizzou a combined 297-114 the last two years.

While the North slate is easier, the South slate is potentially tougher. Texas is the consensus #2 team in the country, OSU is in the Top 15, and Baylor...well, they're still Baylor to some degree, but this should be the best Baylor team of the last decade, for what that's worth. Behold the power of the Hot Tub.

In all, Mizzou faces 4-5 likely bowl teams in the conference in 2009, with two more (Illinois, Nevada) in non-conference play. They face 1-2 elite teams in Texas and possibly Oklahoma State In 1999, they faced six bowl-eligible teams, two elite opponents in Nebraska and Kansas State.

So when all's said and done, I guess it's about a wash.

But if the strength of schedule is about the same, and the team is significantly better...that probably means much more than four wins, right?

Summary

Clearly Mizzou is in better shape heading into 2009 than 1999. As mentioned before, you never know for sure where your program stands until you see the product on the field, but the depth chart has more proven quantities and is much, much better overall.

The key of course, will be the unforeseen developments of 2009. If Kirk Farmer hadn't gotten hurt, Missouri would have at least beaten Iowa State and given Kansas a better run. They may not have finished any better than 5-6, but they also probably wouldn't have so completely quit on the season, and there might have been a little more to build upon heading into 2000.

With the depth chart at hand, Missouri has at least a chance at making a run at another North title. But if Blaine Gabbert gets hurt? Or one of the tackles? Or Danario Alexander (again)? Injuries could pretty significantly alter this team's outlook, especially at quarterback. You could say that any year, but it's more true on a team that is so thin at QB and so impressively young overall.

In the end, though, as we mentioned on Friday, 2009 is only one piece of this program's future. Avoiding disaster in 2009 should mean very good things in 2010 and 2011, and to say the least, the foundation of the Missouri program is in much better shape, much less likely to teeter, in 2009 than it was a decade ago.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

UPDATE: Depth Chart updated after news of Blaine Dalton's dismissal.

The season is barely over a week away, and it is impossible not to be intrigued and excited by the completely unexpected nature of 2009. We think we know what to expect from Blaine Gabbert, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, Kevin Rutland, the lawfirm of Smith, Smith, and Coulter, and all the other guys who will be playing new roles this season, but we don't really know.

But there's an added variable of interest, at least for me, when it comes to the 2009 season: the 2010 season. We want to win another North title--as I was saying this time last year, if Mizzou wins the North in 2009, it's over ("it" being competition in the North division) for a while, thanks for playing, everybody go home. We want to win the division, make a nice bowl, prove that Mizzou is to "reload, not rebuild" stage, et cetera. But really, the single most prevalent, overriding goal of 2009 is simply to not mess up 2010 and beyond. In a major rebuilding/reloading season, Oklahoma went 7-5 in 2005, which would be like about 4-8 for Missouri, and then they won three straight Big 12 titles. It didn't matter whether OU went 5-6 or 7-5 or 10-2 that season--what mattered was that, even with the proceeding Rhett Bomar drama, they got experience, stuck together, and improved as the season progressed, and they were ready to go on a major winning streak when 2006 came around.

With that in mind, let's take a look at 2010 and 2011, and what could be in store if 2009 doesn't, in one way or another (catastrophic injuries, unexpected defection, damaged chemistry, etc.), derail the gameplan. For this exercise, we will more or less assume that the depth charts I've been projecting over the last couple of weeks come true, and we will use that assumption for the projected 2010 and 2011 depth charts.

2010

Boldface = returning (projected) starter
Asterisk = proj. number of years having started
x = no current scholarship player or known walk-on to fill the position

I'm intentionally leaving off any currently-committed recruits because Missouri has proven time and again that, while they'll almost certainly play some true freshmen, trying to figure out which ones ahead of time is a fool's game. A 2-star is almost as likely to come in and earn PT as a 4-star.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)* Jimmy Costello (Jr.) Ashton Glaser (RSFr.)	DE	Aldon Smith (So.)* Brad Madison (So.) Brayden Burnett (RSFr.)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr.)** De'Vion Moore (Jr.) Kendial Lawrence (So.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr.)* Jimmy Burge (So.) George White (So.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr.) T.J. Moe (So.) Kerwin Stricker (RSFr.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr.) Marvin Foster (RSFr.) Chris Earnhardt (Jr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (So.) Rolandis Woodland (So.) Jaleel Clark (RSFr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr.)* Michael Sam (So./RSFr.) Marcus Malbrough (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr.)* Gahn McGaffie (So.) Brandon Gerau (Jr.)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr.)* Zaviar Gooden (So.) x
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr.)* Michael Egnew (Jr.) Alex Sanders (RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (Sr.)** Donovan Bonner (So.) Andrew Wilson (RSFr.)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr.)** Justin Britt (So./RSFr.) Kirk Lakebrink (Sr.)	WLB	Will Ebner (Jr.) Josh Tatum (Jr.) Tyler Crane (Jr.)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr.)* Jayson Palmgren (Jr.) Mike Prince (Sr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr.)*** Trey Hobson (Jr.) Kip Edwards (So.)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr.)** Travis Ruth (So.) x	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr.)* Robert Steeples (So.) Munir Prince (Sr.)
RG	J.T. Beasley (Jr.) Daniel Jenkins (So.) Mark Hill (RSFr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Jr.)** Jarrell Harrison (Sr.) Tavon Bolden (RSFr.)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr.)* Jack Meiners (So.) Chris Freeman (RSFr.)	SS	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Matt White (RSFr.) Randy Ponder (RSFr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr.)* Trey Barrow (So.)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr.) Grant Ressel (Jr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (So.)* Carl Gettis (Sr.)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Kendial Lawrence (So.)

This year, we enter the season with a combined seven seasons of starting experience on offense and six on defense. Next year, it looks like about 11 on offense and 13 on defense.

Notes about the depth chart:

It bears mentioning that there's no way in hell somebody doesn't transfer or quit (UPDATE: or get thrown off the team for driving while intoxicated...on campus, ahem) between now and 12 months from now. Look at some of the younger guys on the third-string, trapped behind guys just as young or younger (i.e. look at the defensive line), if you want to get some pretty good red flags in that regard.
There will also be some position changes, offense-to-defense switches, etc. I have my own ideas about who or what those changes will be, but I tried to stay as close as possible to current positions (OL and LB aside). I wanted to make as few assumptions as possible here.
THREE senior scholarship players on the offensive three-deep, and only seven on defense. This team will still be ridiculously young NEXT year.
Missouri currently has commitments from four defensive backs (five if Jimmie Hunt switches to defense), so it will be quite interesting to see how many (if any) are worked into the rotation, being that DB is about the only senior-dominated unit for 2010. I mean, that's a pretty stout rotation right there. I guess there's a potential slot available at SS, but otherwise a true freshman would have to come in and truly dominated to pass some of those experienced guys.
I can't tell you how curious I am to see L'Damian Washington and T.J. Moe in action this year (I'm just going to assume that neither redshirt). If one or both can play to at least the level that Jared Perry and Danario Alexander did as true freshmen, then this WR corps should be quite stout with Kemp and Jackson as the veterans, Washington/Moe as the third starter, and a host of other guys who will get a shot to show potential this year.
Good god, how good is the offensive line going to be in 2010 (and 2011)??

Now the schedule:

Date	Team	Comments
9/4	vs Illinois	No Juice or (probably) Benn, but...Eddie McGee!!!1!!! Mizzou will probably be favored in this one.
9/11	McNeese State	Yawn.
9/18	?	I'm curious who we aim for with this spot. Clearly it will be a home game, since it's Mizzou's turn to "host" Kansas at Arrowhead, and you have to figure it will be a non-BCS team as well (duh), but no idea whether we're aiming for a Nevada type or an Idaho type.
9/25	Miami-OH	They really haven't been very good for since Big Ben left.
10/9	Colorado	As down as I am about CU in 2009, they should be pretty experienced and potentially solid in the trenches next year. It looks like they'll still have Cody Hawkins at QB, of course, but they should be decent.
10/16	at Texas A&M	Never fun going to College Station, but this one's winnable.
10/23	Oklahoma	As Lou Brown would say, one of these days we're gonna figure out how to beat those guys.
10/30	at Nebraska	The 2009 NU offense will dictate what I think about the 2010 Huskers. No idea right now, but a trip to Lincoln is a trip to Lincoln.
11/6	at Texas Tech	Are you noticing something about the 2010 schedule yet? Only one game in Columbia after 10/23. Yikes.
11/13	Kansas State	Until Bill Snyder proves something the second time around, this is a win.
11/20	at Iowa State	Until Paul Rhoads proves something, anything at all, this is a win.
11/27	vs Kansas	Kansas loses Reesing, Meier, Briscoe (probably), Sharp, Stuckey, Thornton...pretty much every player you can name, they will be gone in 2010. KU has recruited well and looks to be in a "Mizzou 2009" situation next year (hoping to prove they reload instead of rebuild), but Mizzou will definitely have the experienced advantage in this one.

Knowing what we know, it's safe to assume that, even if Missouri wins the North in 2009, people will be picking Nebraska in 2010 (with Colorado as the sleeper), so we should just prepare for it now! Mizzou will clearly have a major role to play in the 2010 race, but a) a million things, good or bad, could happen between now and then, and b) the "almost everything on the road" home stretch is a little intimidating, even if Mizzou will potentially be favored in at least three of the five road trips.

2011

Clearly it's silly to get too worked up, one way or the other, about something that will begin 24 months into the future. But if people stay healthy and develop like Mizzou tends to develop players, then WOW is this team loaded, especially on an offensive line that will have at least three multi-year starters and return four starters overall, and on a defensive line that will be stacked and experienced...and this is without even considering Sheldon Richardson's presence.

Of course, the key to 2011 expectations will be Blaine Gabbert. At 6'5, 240, with a cannon attached to his right arm, he is exactly what pro scouts look for in a quarterback, and if he has any success at all in 2009 and 2010, people will be assuming he's going pro. If he comes back like Colt McCoy, or if he leaves like Josh Freeman, it will have a tremendous impact on expectations. There will be plenty of options if he leaves--~~Blaine Dalton,~~ maybe 2010 commit James Franklin, or of course Jimmy Costello or Ashton Glaser--but obviously the overall outlook will be clouded in part by Gabbert's decision*.

* The more I talk about this, the more I feel like I'm unleashing a monster jinx regarding Gabbert's health, so I'm goign to shut up about it now.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Sr.)** Jimmy Costello (Sr.) Ashton Glaser (So.)	DE	Aldon Smith (Jr.)** Brad Madison (Jr.) Brayden Burnett (So.)
RB	De'Vion Moore (Sr.) Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) Gilbert Moye (Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Sr.)** Jimmy Burge (Jr.) George White (Jr.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Sr.)* T.J. Moe (Jr.) Kerwin Stricker (So.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Sr.)* Marvin Foster (So.) Chris Earnhardt (Sr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (Jr.)* Rolandis Woodland (Jr.) Jaleel Clark (So.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Sr.)** Michael Sam (Jr./So.) Adam Burton (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Sr.)** Gahn McGaffie (Jr.) Brandon Gerau (Sr.)	SLB	Zaviar Gooden (Jr.) x x
TE	Andrew Jones (Sr.)** Michael Egnew (Sr.) Alex Sanders (So.)	MLB	Donovan Bonner (Jr.) Andrew Wilson (So.) x
LT	Elvis Fisher (Sr.)*** Justin Britt (Jr./So.) x	WLB	Will Ebner (Sr.)* Josh Tatum (Sr.) x
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Sr.)** Jayson Palmgren (Sr.) x	CB	Trey Hobson (Sr.) Kip Edwards (Jr.) x
C	Travis Ruth (Jr.) x x	CB	Robert Steeples (Jr.) x x
RG	J.T. Beasley (Sr.)* Daniel Jenkins (Jr.) Mark Hill (So.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Sr.)*** Tavon Bolden (So.) x
RT	Dan Hoch (Sr.)** Jack Meiners (Jr.) Chris Freeman (So.)	SS	Matt White (So.) Randy Ponder (So.) Tony Randolph (Sr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Sr.)** Trey Barrow (Jr.)	P	Matt Grabner (Sr.)* Grant Ressel (Sr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (Jr.)* x	KR	Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) x

Sixteen seasons of starting experience on offense, 12 on defense. Solid experience everywhere, but just ridiculous experience in the trenches. Gabbert or no Gabbert, there's reason to be optimistic about the future just because of that.
As mentioned earlier, the secondary is really the only unit looking at taking a decent-sized hit this season. Same with linebackers, really, but we're all so excited about guys like Ebner, Bonner, Gooden, etc., that it seems like at least a bit less of a concern.

Date	Team	Comments
9/3	?	We can just assume that the three ?'s on the schedule will likely be filled with the usual: a BCS conference team, a decent non-BCS team, and a craptastic non-BCS team. Who those are is obviously up in the air, though I'll say this: I think ESPN and other networks will start trying harder and harder to manufacture good non-conference matchups by offering to pay both participants a decent amount of money. At some point, that will become a cost-effective thing to do, and I think you'll start seeing more matchups coming about in that way. No idea who Missouri might get paired with in such a scenario, but it might do us well to assume that it's possible to be anybody between Oregon and Miami, not just a regional matchup like Arkansas or Iowa.
9/10	?
9/17	?
9/24	Western Illinois	Yawn.
10/1	at Colorado	At the very least, CU should have a very good offensive line in 2011, whether Dan Hawkins is still there or not.
10/15	Texas A&M	All the sophomores currently on their two-deep will be seniors, so they could be pretty decent, whether Mike Sherman is still there or not (and with his ridiculously lengthy contract, he probably will be).
10/22	at Oklahoma	I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Missouri will not be favored in this one.
10/29	Nebraska	2011 is the anti-2010. Three of five down the stretch are at home, and they don't give up the home game against Kansas. Obviously we have no idea about any of the final five teams two years out, but it's certainly possible that Mizzou will be favored in all five, or at least four of them.
11/5	Texas Tech
11/12	at Kansas State
11/19	Iowa State
11/26	vs Kansas

Summary

The point of this exercise was simply to hammer home the point that Missouri will not only be playing for 2009 this year, but 2010 and 2011 as well. If recruiting continues to improve, or if a spate of injuries completely changes the outlook of the program, then these depth charts are about as far from realistic as possible, but the take-home point is simply this: if Missouri does disappoint in 2009, and clearly it's possible, it really will not affect the long-term prognosis of the program as long as the chemistry stays tight, the players stay healthy, and the players continue to improve. I really want Mizzou to shut everybody up and win another North title (and hey, throw in 10 wins for good measure), but Mizzou will likely survive long-term no matter what happens in 2009, and that's a pretty exciting thought to fall back on if things don't go as planned over the next four months.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

Mizzou 2009, Part Ten: Defensive Line

Bill C. — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

Okay, so we've worked ourselves into an optimistic frenzy on offense (it's August--show me a fanbase that isn't excited right now). What about the defense? Buzz kill or buzzsaw?

Defensive Line

This pic was too good not to use again.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Jaron Baston (6'1, 305, Sr.)
DE Aldon Smith (6'5, 255, RSFr.)
DE Jacquies Smith (6'4, 250, So.)
DT Terrell Resonno (6'6, 295, So.)
DE Brian Coulter (6'4, 250, Sr.)
DT Dominique Hamilton (6'6, 300, So.)
DE Brad Madison (6'4, 260, RSFr.)
DT Jimmy Burge (6'2, 285, RSFr.)
DT George White (6'4, 280, RSFr.)
DE Marcus Malbrough (6'5, 255, RSFr.)
DT Chris Earnhardt (6'5, 270, So.)
DT Andy Maples (6'4, 310, Sr.)
DT Bart Coslet (6'5, 260, Jr.)
DT Mark Ellis (6'2, 270, Sr.)

1. What kind of every-down potential do we have in our three-headed end monster? We all know about the athletic potential of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian God Coulter. We're all excited about the possibilities of these guys rushing the passer. But you can only really pin your ears back and attack on Passing Downs...you have to force Passing Downs first. Mizzou was very good against the run last year, and while a lot of that has to do with Sean Weatherspoon and the linebackers, credit too goes to Ziggy Hood, Jaron Baston, Tommy Chavis, and Stryker Sulak, last year's starting D-line.

We haven't seen the lawfirm of Smith, Coulter, and Smith in every-down action yet, nor do we know who will be starting next to Baston at DT, so we don't know how good or bad the line will be against the run. We know that at 275+ pounds, Chavis was seen as more of a run stopping end than a pass rusher, and we know that nobody in the current corps of ends is that big. But clearly pure weight doesn't tell the story. TCU, Texas, and Tennessee were #1-3 against the run (according to Rushing S&P+) last year, and while they had some reasonably big guys (Texas' Henry Melton was around 280, Tennessee's Robert Ayers 270), most DEs on these squads were within the same 250-265 range as Mizzou's.

Can stats tell us anything about run support? Maybe a little. Here are the percentages of tackles each of last year's Mizzou linemen made against the run or pass (sacks count against the pass, FYI).

Jacquies Smith: 87% of tackles came against the run
Jaron Baston: 80%
Tommy Chavis: 72%
Ziggy Hood: 71%
Brian Coulter: 68%
Stryker Sulak: 61%

So if we conclude that Jacquies Smith really is a versatile player in the passing game (that's the perception, anyway), then he must be pretty good against the run. His "against the run" totals were higher Chavis', and Coulter's were higher than Sulak's, so consider that at least a small test passed. (And yes, they could have had high "against the run" %'s because they did nothing against the pass, not because they were particularly good against the run. I think we've made it clear that there are no wonderful lineman statistics. This is what we have to work with.)

What if we just looked at "successful" tackles (i.e. tackles that prevented a successful play for the offense)?

Jacquies Smith: 90% of successful tackles came against the run
Jaron Baston: 78%
Brian Coulter: 75%
Tommy Chavis: 73%
Ziggy Hood: 69%
Stryker Sulak: 51%

Hmm. That suggests that Coulter did more against the run than Sulak did...and that most of the successful plays J. Smith made came against the run. That's at least a little comforting, right?

2. Who's winning the battle to start next to Jaron Baston? No freaking idea whatsoever. At least I'm honest, right? Here's where it's bad that we're completely reliant on the practice reports of Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond. We haven't heard much of Terrell Resonno or Dominique Hamilton. Monday's depth chart updates show that it's still Resonno in the lead, though neither have distinguished themselves. Hamilton looked really good in the spring game, but that is, after all, just one scrimmage of many.

3. Is there a sleeper we haven't talked much about? It appears about thirteen scholarships have been spent on the defense line at the moment, yet we've only talked about six guys. Are any of the others posing serious threats for playing time or stardom? Not really. Marcus Malbrough was not practicing particularly well, but he had a nice Saturday scrimmage, lodging a TFL and a sack. At DT, it sounds like the biggest mover has been redshirt freshman Jimmy Burge, who has jumped ahead of both George White and Chris Earnhardt to second string. It sounded like freshman Marvin Foster was making a threat for playing time before injuring his knee last week, so I'm thinking for the most part we're looking at a six-man line rotation...at least as far as the playmakers go. The winner of the Brad Madison/Malbrough battle will likely see the field, as will the winner of the Burge/Earnhardt/White battle, but I'm guessing that for 2009, at least, they won't be serious threats to make plays as much as eat space. It's doubtful we'll hear too much about anyone beyond Smith/Coulter/Smith and Baston/Resonno/Hamilton.

Mizzou Links, 7-31-09

Bill C. — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:40:29 -0000

Not a whole lot on the Mizzou docket today, but the Big 12 links are overflowing...first, Mizzou:

'Spoon + Old Dearmond = gold.

Terrell Resonno: Most Valuable Tiger #3.

The KC Star says the pressure is on the Mizzou defense to produce this season. Jaron Baston says, no problem! Meanwhile, the Post-Dispatch says the new cast of characters expects to thrive, and the Star's College Corner blog says don't be surprised if Mizzou wins the North this season. To me, they've definitely got a chance. I'm not predicting it, but there's absolutely a chance.

And that's pretty much it for Mizzou...on to the Big 12 links!

Bring on the Cats: Adventures of the Big 12: The Search for Texas A&M (YES!)
Dr. Saturday: Deconstructing: Inside Oklahoma State's prolific balancing act (by Chris from Smart Football)
Dr. Saturday: Assessing Oklahoma's revamped offensive line
But when Bob Stoops publicly called out the entire line for poor winter conditioning before spring practice, the urgency came into focus: If this group can't at least approximate the fortress of solitude the last starting five typically erected around the pocket, Sam Bradford's star -- along with the Sooners' highest ambitions -- will come crashing to Earth sooner or later.
The Missourian: K-State's Carson Coffman aims at six-win season
The Trib: Bill Snyder practices modern maturity
The Trib: Mike Leach speaks out for 'mainstream' playoff (I'm all for a playoff, but...damn)
KC Star: UT's Old Man Shipley

Finally, yes, my handle has changed. For a number of reasons, I figured the handle I had given myself on a couple of old blogspot blogs as an inside joke with my dad (The Boy was the name by which he referred to me when he was teaching class and telling some story about his family...he bought me a shirt that just said "The Boy" to wear around town if we went to the grocery store or something and he might run into a former student) had kind of outgrown its usefulness. Everybody knows my first name anyway, so I didn't really figure everybody would even notice...

Oh yeah, and...

Mizzou Links, 7-14-09

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:31:34 -0000

Getting a late start this morning...thank you, Mediacom Internet, for deciding to go out once again...much appreciated...

We start with a link to an outstanding Trib look at previous Mizzou players and their MLB All-Star Game experience.

"To walk into that clubhouse and be around those stars for a couple of days, it’s almost as if you didn’t even feel like you belonged," said [Phil] Bradley, who struck out in the eighth inning against Montreal reliever Jeff Reardon in his only at-bat of the NL’s 6-1 win. "But when you play for Seattle, you know you deserved it."

He did. It’s just that nobody saw it coming. Not so soon.

The former Missouri quarterback/outfielder, a third-round draft pick by Seattle in 1981, progressed steadily through the minors and hit .301 in part-time duty with the Mariners in 1984.

What he lacked was power. Before the 1985 season, he had no clear place on the Mariners’ roster and no homers in 389 big league at-bats.

Mariners officials, looking at his 6-foot, 180-pound frame, thought this would change.

"Look at that body," Seattle hitting coach Deron Johnson told the Tribune later that season. "It’s no single hitter’s."

And while we're talking baseball, here's a collection of Mizzou-related links at SimmonsField.com, and...well, an interview with Mizzou grad and celebrity softballer extraordinaire ~~Don Draper~~ Jon Hamm.

Alright, now to football. PowerMizzou continues its unit-by-unit look at the North. Now up: Linebackers and Defensive Line.

Yesterday was once again time for Case of the Mondays...

● Does Dave Steckel’s promotion alone impact the defense? Does the veteran coach’s no-BS personality create a hungrier group than last year’s experienced but inconsistent D? Will he simplify calls, coverages and blitz packages?

...

● What are the best position battles? Here are a few: Defensive tackles Terrell Resonno vs. Dominique Hamilton vs. George White vs. Brian Earnhardt … Left guards Austin Wuebbels vs. Jayson Palmgren vs. Travis Ruth … No. 3 linebacker: Andrew Gachkar vs. Will Ebner vs. Andrew Wilson vs. Josh Tatum vs. Jeff Gettys … Strong safety: Hardy Ricks vs. Jarrell Harrison vs. Jasper Simmons. Lots more to discuss once camp opens.

Dave Matter also found a quick quote on Stryker Sulak's wonderful release from the Raiders...

"Shocked is the best way to put it," a source told the Web site. "This is a good kid who plays football, hunts and fishes. This is very dysfunctional. I'm shocked that they didn't even call him to let him know or call his agent. ... He has just been back home working out and getting ready for camp."

If you're into such a thing, PowerMizzou's got a photo gallery up from Lorenzo Williams' camp this past weekend...

Looks like Mizzou's got a new Softball assistant...

Not directly Mizzou-related, but Dr. Saturday takes a look at Turner Gill's Buffalo Bulls, and...yeah, it's simply amazing how lucky they got last year. I love Gill, but odds are they're in for quite a fall this year.

Finally, since we were discussing him a couple of days ago, I thought I'd link to Bad Left Hook's excellent recap of Arturo Gatti's career. He won't be remembered as a great boxer (he was destroyed by the two great boxers he faced), but...four Fights of the Year in less than a decade? Good god, he was fun to watch.

SB Nation - Terrell Resonno

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Mizzou Links, 10-7-09

Mizzou-Illinois: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(37)

Illinois(9)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou 2009, Part Fifteen: 2009 vs 1999

Offense

2009

2009

2009

2009

2009

Draw

2009

Draw

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

Defense

1999

2009

1999

2009

2009

1999

Draw

2009

2009

Draw

2009

2009

Draw

The Opponents

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

2010

2011

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

Offense (returning starters: 5)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Special Teams

Key losses

Season Forecast

Predicted order of finish

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou 2009, Part Ten: Defensive Line

Defensive Line

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou Links, 7-31-09

Mizzou Links, 7-14-09

Mizzou
(37)

Illinois
(9)