SB Nation - Steven Threet

The Troubling ASU Quarterback Situation

Cory Williams — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:57:19 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

No mas, por favor.

When Dennis Erickson arrived in Tempe for the 2007 season, he was given a capable Junior QB (Rudy Carpenter), a cache of redshirt freshmen (Samson Szakacsy, Chasen Stangel), and Danny Sullivan.

Coach Erickson's first QB target was John Elway's son, Jack. He was the top QB recruit for the class of 2012, but is now living life in civilian clothes on the ASU campus.

In 2009, must now face this troubling reality for our QB depth chart:

1. Danny Sullivan, Sr.

2. Brock Osweiler, Fr.

3. Samson Szakacsy, Rs. So.

4. Steven Threet (Transfer from Michigan)

I must ask a very basic question in the wake of this situation. Upon his arrival, why did Dennis Erickson fail to recruit a quality QB for the impending 2009 season? He knew Rudy was going to graduate, and it is very obvious that Danny Sullivan is not very good.

Erickson did not know that Threet would transfer from Michigan, nor did he know that Osweiler would decommit from playing Gonzaga basketball in order to come to ASU.

In the end, Dennis failed to recruit a good QB to play for us this season, a year where we could have been very, very good with a QB half as talented as Matt Barkley.

And for that, I blame no one but the coaching staff. We went into this season knowing Danny was our guy, and what has that brought us? Not a whole lot, other than a few embarrassing defeats.

Bring on 2010, and bring on the Threet Era. But in the meantime, please give Brock Osweiler some reps, Dennis. You're showing your age with this brittle insensitivity.

Q+A with ASU site Pitchfork Nation

TwistNHook — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:00:41 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

2 months ago: Georgia running back Caleb King (4) is chased by Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict (7), cornerback Pierre Singfield (31), and safety Ryan McFoy (2) during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Athens, Ga. Georgia won 20-17. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

Well, it's that time of the year again. The most wonderful time of the year. Arizona State Week. When everything seems magical and new and fresh again. And for this most amazing week, we have a Q+A with the one, the only, PITCHFORK NATION! Bringing us everything Sun Devil. So, grab a candy cane, put on your fake Dennis Erickson beard, and join us after the jump for more info on the Arizona State Sun Devils.

(And don't forget to check out our interview with them on all things Cal!)

1. Tell us more about Vontaze Burfict? We've heard he once killed a terrorist with a honey jar and then impregnated his wife. ALL AT THE SAME TIME!

You're clearly leaving out the time he rescued a burning bus full of schoolchildren from driving off a cliff while passionately reciting Lincoln's Gettysburg Address. Let's give the man the credit he's due.

Vontaze has the most talent and most intensity for a freshman that I've seen in seven seasons of covering ASU football. However, he's got a serious problem with controlling that intensity and it has led to five ridiculous personal foul penalties over the past two games. Dennis Erickson, he of the "anything goes" philosophy at Miami, actually has has to tell him to REIN IT IN.

However, the guy has incredible open field tackling skills and a nose for the ball carrier not seen here since Dale Robinson roamed the 2nd level of defense. He's got a future here, that's for sure. He has too much raw talent and passion for the game to not succeed at the collegiate level.

I do wonder about his mental state though. He took a leaping penalty on a Stanford field goal attempt last week and, in true McNabb-ian fashion, Dennis Erickson claimed after the game that Burfict didn't know there was a rule against it.

Er, what? I KNEW what he did was a personal foul the instant I saw it and I haven't touched a competitive football field since Pop Warner. His awareness may be the only thing I worry about constantly.

2. How much is ASU going to win by?

Please. We're just lucky that college football games can't end in ties anymore.

If ASU can regain their prowess at stopping the run and find a way to stifle Jahvid Best, they should be in good position to win. The secondary has struggled over the last few weeks without Omar Bolden, so you know, if I was Kevin Riley, I'd throw. A lot. Over Terell Carr.

3. Please tell us about the two best players on your team.

Mike Nixon and Chris McGaha are the defensive and offensive standouts. Nixon is one of the unlikeliest candidates to be a team cornerstone since Charlie Ward but he has evolved into one of the best linebackers in the Pac-10. He's just so smart on the field - he knows exactly what's going on everywhere between the lines at any time. He rarely loses his cool and has great hands and great tackling ability.

Chris McGaha catches anything and everything near him. He's the most dangerous offensive weapon we've got right now simply through his ability to get open consistently.

Now, would you sit those two players on the bench the entire game in exchange for Jahvid Best sitting out the entire game?

No, because I'm still fairly sure ASU can stop the run, even after last week's debacle at The Farm. Plus, if McGaha sits, I don't trust anyone else on this team to actually catch a thrown football.

4. How has ASU dealt with losing Rudy Carpenter?

By crying for a true freshman to be the program's savior despite the fact that he hasn't started a game and has attempted 11 passes in three 3 games.

Seriously. We're seven games in and people still can't deal with the fact that Rudy, as much as many despised him, is gone and that we're sitting here with Los Gatos' prodigal son Danny Sullivan as our starter. We all knew that the QB situation would be pretty uncertain after RC's graduation but we never imagined that Sullivan would be this ineffective.

Therefore, as you'll see on Saturday, ASU's offensive play calling has been dramatically reduced. The Devils run the same three or four run plays and have lost the ability to stretch the field because of Sullivan's absolute inability to throw an accurate deep ball (unless Chris McGaha is wide open against Nick Holt's defense with 0:05 left).

If you love off-tackle sweeps, short out routes and running backs who prefer to run backwards rather than forwards, you'll love ASU's new offense.

5. Do you think Dennis Erickson is the man to take ASU to the next level?

I still think so. He's done it in so many places (except San Francisco) that I still have faith in the guy. The problem this year, I firmly believe, is not him. It's the talent he has to work with this year.

DE continues to do a bang-up job recruiting and I really do think he's got the Sun Devils set up for success in 2010 and beyond. He attracted Osweiler AND Michigan transfer Steven Threet to the program. Cameron Marshall has been a nice surprise at RB and he's got talent packed to the gills on defense.

It has certainly been a major frustration this season for many fans who are crying for his head because no one wants to admit that this year was going to be an uphill battle with a first year starting QB. Erickson still knows the game inside and out and knows what buttons to push at any given time. I'll give him through 2011, but if the program isn't at least back battling for 1st or 2nd in the conference by then, I reserve the right to change my mind.

6. Osweiler or Sullivan?

I haven't publicly endorsed either since going to bat for Danny Sullivan after the Georgia loss.

That was a mistake.

At this point, I absolutely have to stick with Sullivan, but not based on his own merits. The fact of the matter is that I still have this gut feeling that this team would not play any better with Brock Osweiler anyway. At its essence, Osweiler and Sullivan are still first-year starters despite the three year gap in college experience. The only difference I think starting Brock would make would be a larger inclination to throw the deep ball because he might be more accurate that Danny when going long.

However, with bowl eligibility already slipping from the Sun Devils grasp and Sullivan not doing anything to really HELP ASU get the requisite two more wins, any change would be good change. I just don't see it happening, though. DE has this unwavering confidence in Danny, something I'm at this point convinced he got from reading it off of a fortune cookie. I can't think of any other real explanation for why Erickson has stood behind Danny so fervently.

7. What was going through your mind during the last play against UW the other week?

Let me refer your readers to this video and I'll point out my thought processes at certain timestamps:

0:07: "Really? Overtime? I can't take much more of this."

0:12: "Overtime? With that guy? -reaches for bottle of Jack Daniels-"

0:24: "If this is an off-tackle sweep to Dimitri Nance, my shoe is going through my TV. I don't care how much it costs to fix. My shoe, that TV!"

0:27: "The prevent defense: feel the power!"

0:29: "WHAT THE FLYING HELL IN ALL THE NAME OF CHRIST ARE YOU DOING?"

0:31: "da;lsfjasdl;kfgdsl;kfjsadl;kfjasdl;fjfjiwefjwe;oifj;asdlkfjalsfj DON'T DROP THE FOOTBALL CHRIS!"

0:36: "OK Danny. We know that everybody poops, but please stand up before you do it in the middle of Frank Kush Field."

0:46: "WHAT THE HELL DID I JUST WITNESS? And for that matter, why did it take so long to get the ball to Chris McGaha?"

1:01: "That may have been the first time I've seen a grown man's face fully twitch in anger."

2:32: "Holy crap, we are actually going to win this football game based on something Danny Sullivan did. -pinches self- Yup, still alive."

8. Who do you want to punch in the face?

Petros Papadakis. Is that so wrong? I mean, I'm sure there's like, a line to do so, but I'll gladly wait or take a number or whatever.

Many thanks to Pitchfork Nation for their help with these. Good luck to them and GO BEARS!

CGB Report Card: Grading Cal's Performance Against USC

Avinash — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:49:37 -0000

via calbearsonline.com

Let's start with the gameday experiences of Cal fans. Since this one didn't involve an extended roadtrip of fail and instead a leisurely trip to Homecoming, I'm guessing you guys had plenty of fun this time.

trojanbear: Loved being on campus and being surrounded by Cal fans after spending 4 days last week with Duck fans. I loved the initial energy the crowd provided, but I think our fans let the team down just as much as the team let us down. When Oregon turned the ball over at the begining of the prior game, autzen became louder. When Riley threw the interception the Coliseum on our first drive became the masoleum (aka LA Colisuem before PC).

SoCal Oski: Cold beer, awesome carne asada, and good friends.

pyunny: It was my first Cal game outside of the student section and I've got to say our fans suck. Can we make some noise? People were staring at me as if I were crazy. I used to think that we were pretty good as a student section but even the student section seemed quiet. I understand it's hard to cheer when we don't have much going for us but isn't that when we need it the most?

royrules22: The CGB tailgate was fun?

Nasty_Nate: Nope! Nothing at all!

bluehenbear: USC Band = douchebaggery at its finest

ososdeoro: It was cool that the bowl was filled up a half hour before kickoff. It was cool that it was a sellout. It's going to be awhile before we get another, though.

Berkelium97: Traveling 450 miles to Berkeley was almost worth it to see Tepper hurdle a USC linesman.

Also, one of the roving concession guys (the one with the Kid-n-Play haircut with the bleached front) was walking around, dislocating his shoulder/elbow from their joints and letting his arms flail wildly. This helped make the 4th quarter more tolerable.

sec119: When the fourth quarter cleared out most of section RR (or whatever is right next to the band), and there were about 20 empty rows ahead of me, my buddy turned to me and said, "I wouldn't come here if I were a 5 star recruit."

Oh wait, cool experiences? Pre-game cheeseboard pizza and Racer 5 IPA.

DougOLis: I fell asleep during halftime and woke up a minute or so into the 3rd quarter. That was fun.

CALumbus Bear: I got to see my Dodgers clinch the West! Whoo hoooo blue crew!! It was fun to watch after all that scotchy scotch scotch scotchy scotch scotchness

Kodiak: I had severe food poisoning/stomach flu prior to the game. I had to go to urgent care where they forced me to pound six huge glasses of vile contrast liquid so that they could scan me to verify that my appendix wasn't about to burst. So, I ran the gamut of nausea, vomiting, and crapping out radioactive contrast liquid. Looking back, it was a much more pleasant experience than watching the game.

Manwich: I started taking shots at 7, drunk by 8:30. All courtesy of USC alums at the bar, at least they're less likely to be dicks (only slightly) outside of the school.

jocko: Wonderful crowd, terrible game.

HOUSE66: Teppers screen play, then going home and drinking to another Emerald bowl victory thats sure to come, Passing out and forgetting why i felt so miserable when i woke up, then i remembered...

Jr. Bear: Getting drunk. Some Alumni have a negativity that can be frankly just tiring. Being in the Cal Spirit DeCal class, I know firsthand that this extends to the faculty. It's hard not to think that some of this doesn't extend to the team. I bet Tedford is getting tired of DURR HURR BAD KARMA UND RUSS BOAWL

aznpursuit: My goal for this team was to score one touchdown. They failed me.

Silver lining: Girlfriend was going to surprise me with tickets to this game, but decided against it. Saved us $150 on tickets, an hour driving up to Berkeley, 3 hours of suffering in a cold and windy stadium, and another hour of driving back home. PRICELESS.

BeastMode: Flew in Friday. Had a great weekend with friends. Got drunk. Twice. Game? What game?

BerkeleyChris: I think Kevin Riley's superpower is not being able to hit open receivers.

1988goldenbear: None.

Spazzy McGee: Really, today was an all around shitty day other than the burger I ate for dinner. It continues to be shitty right now, in fact.

GBB4188: Blondie's was pretty good today. There was a huge pile of vomit on one of the BART cars. I just ate some nachos.

rollonubears: Me and my sister were having a competition to see who had the worst day. She broke up with her boyfriend and got stuck in an elevator. I attended the USC-Cal game.

I won.

Dexter1715: none

jsnell: My wife and I left the game at halftime and went to a lovely asian restaurant in Marin County for dinner. We shared a satay platter. Tasty. And much better than watching this crap game.

polarbear91: I got 4 boxes of Cheerios on sale.

Maisbikkja: I found an onion ring in my fries during the game. I love surprise onion rings.

jpeng: Had to get up at 7:20am in Taipei to watch the game (15hours ahead). Located a bar catering to expats (Brass Monkey) showing the game. Arrived 7 minutes into the game and met some cool Cal alums. Bar was packed with USC fans (why can't you get away from them?)

VN: Turning the TV off. That was nice.

rurata: None.

Ohio Bear: I didn't commit suicide after watching the game.

arkangel99: NONE

California Pete: The best part of my day was probably the fact that I had the game paused on my DVR as I missed the start returning from an afternoon party. By allowing me to skip over the commercial breaks and between-play huddles, this at least turned three hours of agony into something more like two hours. Even Mike Silver can't save me from this post-game depression.

MadBum: Not cool. A good friend of mine called me asking me what the score was...I hung up on him

WTFFF!!!!!!!!: Fuck you.

Yep. Definitely better!

Quarterback: 0.589 (D-)
Running back: 2.004 (C)
Receivers: 1.570 (C-)
Run Blocking: 1.296 (D+)
Pass Protection: 1.393 (D+)
Run Defense: 1.867 (C-)
Pass Rush: 1.178 (D)
Pass Defense: 1.063 (D)
Special Teams: 1.104 (D)
Coaching: 0.856 (D)
Overall: 0.778 (D)

I'm guessing if this is a Cal class, they'd probably be kind enough to give you a P. I think. Thanks to the 45 commenters who took the time to put their thoughts into this one.

WTFFF!!!!!!!!, MadBum, yorzepol, California Pete, arkangel99, Ohio Bear, rurata, VN, jpeng, Maisbikkja, polarbear91, jsnell, Dexter1715, rollonubears, iVinshe, GBB4188, Spazzy Mcgee, 1988goldenbear, BerkeleyChris, BeastMode, aznpursuit, coolingfan, Oaktown123, Haas8388, Jr. Bear, sycasey, HOUSE66, jocko, CaliforniaCMB, BTown85, Manwich, Kodiak, CALumbus Bear, DougOLis, sec119, Berkelium97, ososdeoro, bluehenbear, Nasty_Nate, royrules22, Oaklandishbear, pyunny, SoCal Oski, Sinbad, trojanbear

Awards and best comments are after the jump.

For the second week in a row, our graders agreed on the overall performance, with a standard deviation of 0.708. Position-wise, the agreement was on quarterback play.

The special teams streak is broken! The biggest disagreement was on the receivers, with an SD of 1.048. Special teams was the runner up.

Steven Chu Award

via calbearsonline.com

Commenter/alias name	Total standard deviation
CALumbus Bear	1.141
trojanbear	1.239
Kodiak	1.335
sycasey	1.427
Oaklandishbear	1.637

CGB Supreme Court Ultra Super Justice CALumbus Bear (that's what we call him, right?) shows he is really a man of reason. Here is his full report card, which should be viewed with grave seriousness.

Quarterback (D-): You are entering Overthrow City, population 1. Mayor: Kevin "Throw Harder" Riley. Motto: "We don't win big games." Voted one of the most frustrating places to live 2 years in a row.

Running back (C): Best looked decent when he was given the ball. But we couldn't afford to do it often enough.

Receivers (C-): Would have been a D but for the tight ends. They apparently didn't do a good job getting open, and they didn't make any great catches.

Run blocking (D): Dear O line: WTF?

Pass protection (D): Dear O line: see comment above.

Run defense (C): I think we got tired, and there were some pretty bad tackles. They did make many a play, though, so that kinda evens out the bad-tackling-for-big-gain instances.

Pass rush (D): Need mor sax lol

Pass defense (D): Welcome to USC Receiver City, where we're open all night! Need to improve your TE stats? Play Cal.

Special teams (D-): I thank Oski that no FG/KOs were returned for touchdowns. I also thank Oski that no punts were returned for TDs and that we didn't muff any punt receptions. Oh, wait, fuck.

Coaching (D): Defense coaches get a C, which kinda balances out the Fs and Ds that abound elsewhere.

Overall (F): The only thing that kept the overall grade from being an F was the Oregon game. But this game was at home. You know, I'm gonna go ahead and change the overall grade to F. Yup, they deserved it. Perhaps we should have an "EP" grade for Epic Phail.

Old Blue Award

via calbearsonline.com

Commenter/alias name	Average score (out of 4)
MadBum (T-1st)	0
rollonubears (T-1st)	0
BerkeleyChris	0.182
coolingfan	0.303
jsnell, BeastMode	0.545

From four bagels last week to two. We can build on this!

MadBum & rollonubears give you your weekly dose of pessimism. You've already heard rollonubears sad story up top; here are samples from the former.

Receiving: Too many drops...part of the blame falls on the QB, but they weren't open enough. Our RBs were better wideouts

Run Defense: We seemed to be giving up big runs too often in the 1st quarter. Stepped it up in the 2nd and later, but I think that was SC taking some pity

Special Teams: That missed field goal almost made me cry

Overall: I HATE MY LIFE

Golden Sunglasses Award

via calbearsonline.com

Commenter/alias name	Average score (out of 4)
jpeng	2.636
BTown85	2.242
pyunny	2.182
Manwich	2.167
Jr. Bear	2.091

I'm glad to hear I wasn't the only optimistic one coming out of this one. Leading up the charge is jpeng (although Manwich cracks the top 5 for the second straight week, keep the love coming!), who has more faith in Kevin Riley than anyone else out there!

Quarterback (B+): Riley overthrew his receivers quite a few times but with USC's pass rush always breathing down his neck I think he didn't do as poorly as his numbers had suggested, he avoided being sacked SEVERAL times throughout the game and was disciplined enough to still look down the field. He may have looked awful to some, but I believe he played decently given the persistent pressure. When our receivers were covered well, Riley even had presence of mind to pick up a couple using his feet.

Running back (B): If our OL can't open up holes, it'll be tough for any back to put up tremendous numbers. Sure JB got chased down a couple times (Mays runs like a 4.29?) but Jahvid and Shane played at a satisfactory level given the very talented defense they were up against.

Run defense (B): Two words, missed tackles. Many times our guys got to the runner, but couldn't bring them to the ground. Sure USC has some shifty backs but many times I watched our tacklers slow down and pull up before attempting to wrap.

Coaching (B+): I liked the improvement over last week. Cal utilizing the wildcat and pulling a couple reverses kept USC on their toes. The trick play with Vereen on the very edge of the field was an AWESOME call. It's a shame he wasn't able to catch it in bounds (overthrown) cause that probably would've been an easy 6.

Overall (B-): I hate USC so much, many times I was wishing season-ending injuries to their playmakers but alas we were outplayed by a VERY talented team (whats with the 5/4-star depth?). Sure we had a chance to beat them, but damn... they're good. which makes is so much easier to hate on them.

Best of the comments

And finally, the most memorable or insightful of the comments. Considering how negative things have gotten in here, I'm starting to wonder if I should put a disclaimer: These comments do not reflect the opinions of Marshawnthusiasts or the Jahvidtician.

Again, I tried to include everyone as much as I could. Really sorry if I left any of you out.

via calbearsonline.com

Quarterback

Maisbikkja (D): Riley had confidence on his first series, and he threw like it. He took command of the offense and got the Bears down the field and then OH MY GOD HERE WE GO AGAIN... My only advice would be to give Riley a heavier ball that might bring his passes down to a catchable level. You have the talent man, it's there! UNLEASH THE FURY!

Beast Mode (0): He still overthrows the ball way too much. He is not seeing wide open receivers even with decent protection at times. I just don't see the development with Riley. Honestly, I was never very impressed with him, even taking into account OSU and Air Force in 2007. Let's face it, there's a reason he couldn't hold off Nate Longshore.

Mansion or Sweeney deserve a shot here, for the future of this program. It really can't be much worse than what we've seen, even against two good defenses. Riley's errors were not a function of those defenses, they were his own.

GBB4188 (D): I don't know if it's subconscious memory-blocking, but I can't think of a worse QB performance in recent times. This is coming from a Bruin who just sat through a year of Craft.

Berkelium97 (F+): I was very impressed with Riley's scrambling. He really surprised me with his elusiveness (this is why he earned the "+" in F+). Besides that, it was probably the worst performance by a Cal qb since Ayoob against USC in 2005. I don't know how he can be so wildly inaccurate. He was overthrowing, throwing low, throwing left, throwing right, all about 4 feet from where the receiver could catch it. What's particularly troubling was that even when he had time and a wide open receiver he'd blow the pass. The Sneaky Vereen would have gone for 6 had he not missed the throw.

He only has a few more games before I start chowing down at Beau Sweeney's Family-Style Canjun Eatery

Jr. Bear (C-): Too many overthrows, of course, by Riley. But then it's hard to settle down when he got as much pressure as he did. Or perhaps we are seeing shades of Steven Threet of Michigan, throwing to his imaginary 11-foot tall friend. I STILL LOVE HIM, SO DREAMY. I see him at the Golden Bear Cafe all the time, bein' a regular ole goofball with Will Kapp.

Kodiak (F): The demon spirit of Ayoob has clearly possessed Kevin Riley. And unlike the D-movie with Megan Fox, the results ain't pretty. He's clearly lost his swagger and confidence. I think last year's debacle has thoroughly messed with his head to where his competitive psyche is the now equivalent of a boxer with a glass jaw. He has the skills when everything else is rolling, but throw in any adversity and he becomes a weird hybrid of Mr. Magoo and post-Nolanized Alex Smith.

I know the biggest jump in skill is supposed to be between Jr -> Sr years, but it's bluidy ridiculous the skew that jump by setting the bar so low it's underground.

SoCal Oski (D-): Riley appears to be completely mentally ripped apart. His passes are like flinging half-cooked spaghetti against a wall - he's just hoping one or two will stick. Even with time and an open receiver he seems to be forcing things, with way too many overthrown balls - always a sign of a hurried throw. Maybe Tedford/Ludwig need to treat Riley the way Ucla treats Craft: no long throws and only tiny dump-offs.

Running back

via calbearsonline.com

ososdeoro (C): Well, you can't really blame the running backs for the speed of the USC linebackers, can you? Still, while Best clearly showed how to run against USC (run hard until you see the hole, or don't, and NEVER hesitate in the backfield). Vereen was clueless. Hopefully, he'll learn.

California Pete (D): Couldn't get things going for the second straight week. Some of this is on them, and not being able to pick up that first down against a hobbled Taylor Mays is a major punch in the face for our erstwhile Heisman front-runner.

I'm still inclined, though, to fault the O-line and the overall game plan which is not nearly stubborn enough. Cal's attitude must be: load up the box with 8 or 9 guys, because we're still going to run it down your throats. Riley should not be throwing the ball 30+ times a game. Period.

trojanbear (C-): Given the lack of blocking the backs did as well as expected. It's not easy to gain positive yardage when the oponent has 9 or 10 guys in the box. I liked the wildcat, however, one of the backs has to throw from that formation or it's useless ploy. Maybe they can line Isi, Jahvid and Shane in the backfield and snap it to a different back each time.

jocko (C): Great talents, if they were playing for USC.

yorzepol (B-): Best was not going to get going without a viable passing threat, there was none. He juked and jived for all he was worth, but he could not get anything going. I expect every team from here on out is going to stop Best at all costs and if he can not get help we will be in for a LONG season.

coolingfan (D-): Jahvid's overrated... He's just a speedy back, who needs a LOT of help from the O-line to get himself in the open field, but won't produce much otherwise. He's not creating his own plays like Marshawn did years ago.

Receivers

via www.latimes.com

iVinshe (D-): Welcome back, dropsies. I think we need another rainstorm. (at least there weren't any unsportsmanlike conduct penalties? Yay bright side!)

jpeng (C+): Although I wasn't impressed by our receiving corps performance, I don't blame them for being hesitant about going up for the ball. I'm sure taking a licking form Taylor Mays were in the back of their minds every time they had to haul in a higher-than-ideal pass. That aside, we've seen what Jones/Ross and Tucker can do, they're very talented athletes who just didn't play at their full potential today.

Ohio Bear (B): Along with red zone defense, this was probably the bright spot of the night (and there are slim pickings for "bright spots"). Marvin Jones picked up some first down catches and it really seemed like the WRs were generally open. Riley just didn't hit them. Very few (if any) drops that I can remember.

1988goldenbear (D): Some drops when Riley got the ball in a catchable spot; Miller was a bright spot; nice to see Jones out there too.

sycasey (D): Riley's throws were awful, but the WR corps is looking more and more indifferent with each passing game. They don't lay themselves out for passes, and they drop balls that hit them in the hands. At least TE play has been solid.

DougOLis (C-): They weren't as bad as last week, but there were a few poor passes that could have been catchable. It would have been nice to come down with a few of those. The receivers got open for the most part but it's not their fault Riley couldn't hit them.

Run blocking

via calbearsonline.com

GBB4188 (C-): Hard to really judge how well the blocking is going when you play a team with so much size and speed on defense.

aznpursuit (D-): Best was surrounded by white jerseys all game like white on rice.

BTown85 (C+): Where are the holes? It's tough when you're facing so many in the box, but it seems like the last two weeks the O-line has been bullied. This is the key to our success; if the O-line can open it up, JB can run and Riley gets more time. O-line NEEDS to win the battle.

Haas8388 (D): I know there are 8 and 9 in the box, but the run blocking is still pretty anemic. Why not go to zone blocking more? Why not run the stretch play?

bluehenbear (C): O line getting blown up. Coaches obviously have no confidence in Oline when we decide to punt on 4th and short on own 40 late in first half, the play call for Best to the outside (against Mays, see above), and the overthrown screen on 4th and 2. Yes, SC has superior athletes, but would we have tried to power it up the gut against other teams? Championship teams need to be able to get the 1-2 yds on a 3rd/4th and short (a la USC's multiple first downs) when ABSOLUTELY needed. This is missing from Cal's repertoir right now, especially near the goal line. PUNCH THE DLINE IN THE FACE AND GET THOSE COUPLE OF YARDS! We're soft, and it's showing.

Pass protection

via calbearsonline.com

Kodiak (D+): For the next two weeks, the entire offense should have to play buck-naked. That way, at least everyone is equally exposed.

Yeah, sometimes Riley just plain did the deer in the headlights thing and held the ball. But I also saw a basic 4-man rush blow through a line that had a TE or back held back more than once.

Starting to wonder more than a little about how big a loss it was that Coach M hit the road.

WTFFF!!!!!!!! (D): I can't even bare to answer any more questions. (Author's note: That was indeed the last question he answered)

HOUSE66 (D-): Pretty consistaint pressure on Riley all game, gave up two sacks, but the hurrys an hit coloum were also pretty high up there. The running backs blocking comes into play here, as they are the last line of defense for the QB and need to step it up when the pocket starts to break down.

royrules22 (D): Better than Oregon but still miserable. Best is a liability out there. Tepper isn't all that great. Guarnero is no Alex Mack. Etc, etc.

Spazzy McGee (B-): Not half bad. Riley would have plenty of time for a 3-step drop, then wait...wait....wait....until the pocket collapsed and he had to escape.

Rush defense

via calbearsonline.com

sec119 (D): I'm grateful I had the chance to see future Heisman winning running back, Joe McKnight.

Manwich (B): A few lapses. Have I said that I hate the term bend don't break. Because if you bend enough, eventually you break, always. I want to see a little bit more aggressiveness.

BerkeleyChris (F): Bradford looked like a bulldozer and McKnight looked like... well... Jahvid. We couldn't stop their run game and it was absolutely killer.

Jr. Bear (B): Not bad on runs to the inside. Outside wasn't that great, but I don't remember any real long runs outside of their first touchdown. I was very upset when Jarred Price was brought in for a goal line stand. Logic dictates a jam middle against their HB Dive, which I don't believe he has the size to accomplish as well as his counterparts.

polarbear91 (C-): It could have been worse considering that they were up against SC's line and got little help from the offense. The effort was better this week. They did a fair job of keeping SC out of the end zone although they gave up a lot of yards.

Pass rush

via calbearsonline.com

Haas8388 (C): The weakside LB has not been getting it done in pass rushing. They just don't have a threat like Follet off the edge. Alualu gets through from time to time, but it is asking alot for a 3-4 DE to be the leading pass rusher. At times, Eddie Young looks like a better blizer than MM or kendriks.

Jr. Bear (C): Very bleah. Alualu was the only source of consistent pressure, and the only one to get real penetration. The D-line is very good, but with only 3 rushing on coverage, there's not a whole lot they can do. I don't think it would have been entirely possible, but I would have gone with the 4-3 this year to match our talent. Also did I see a corner blitz with Syd'Quan? That dude should ALWAYS be on a receiver.

pyunny (D): Awful. Or maybe the $C O-line was just too dominant. It felt like Barkley had plenty of time to let the play develop and to throw. When we got into the backfield we couldn't seem to bring him down either.

trojanbear (D): Alualu. Can anyone other than Tyson rush the QB? What happened to Cameron Jordan?

Kodiak (D+): Considering that the stated goal coming in was to pressure/harass/confuse the true freshman QB, I'd have to consider it a miss. Nothing out of the base package. Didn't get anything off the edge. Again, big disappointment from our touted defensive ends and "athletic" linebackers. I think the next time I want to cuss someone out, I'm going to tell them they have potential.

Pass defense

via calbearsonline.com

Kodiak (D): We still can't cover a tight end. We stopped one bubble screen for about 3yds. The rest of them went for at least 7, including one that would have gone for 18 yds except for a penalty. Our cornerbacks are playing too soft and scared. Our linebackers remind me of that Charles Barkley quote, "Run like deer, jump like deer, think like deer." But hey, we got an interception on a really bad underthrow...because our safety was too far out of position to actually cover the receiver for an on-target throw, and our "stud" cornerback didn't turn around to look until it would have been too late.

aznpursuit (D-): Actual conversation by Cal defense:
"I bet you $20 he won't catch the ball."
"You're on."
"Ah, shit."

At least we got one interception.

sec119 (D): Ezeff got burnt several times playing off the open receiver. IIRC, there was one play in the third quarter where SC had 2nd or 3rd and long, and they lined up THREE receivers in an obvious screen play formation. TWO defenders lined up at the LOS while Syd played 10 yards(!) behind the first down marker. Naturally, USC got an easy eight yards.

SoCal Oski (D-): Someone needs to inform Bob Gregory that it is not a mortal sin to teach your defensive backs to look for the ball instead of just staring at the receiver while waving their arms spasmodically. And once again, short & middle passes were completely uncovered.

trojanbear (D): Not enough pressure on Barkley. He's a freshman so we should ahve shown him multiple looks and not allow him to just set in the pocket and pick us apart. Did we ever try a corner or safety blitz. Syd was money but we aren't getting enough out of the rest of the secondary. I think Cal plays way too far off the receivers giving them way too much room underneath.

Special teams

via calbearsonline.com

Berkelium97 (F): Why is Syd even returning punts? Cal blows the outside coverage every time, so one of the guys out wide can sprint downfield and be in Syd's face by the time he catches the ball. He's dropped two punts already this year. He has only returned two, maybe three punts all year. I don't want to see him get hurt out there and would rather see someone else calling fair catch and not returning punts (since that's what they're going to do anyway, right?). More frustrating was D'Amato's missed chip shot, Anger's inconsistency, and that soul-crushing punt returned for a touchdown.

iVinshe (B): I think I want to trade back our ST for Offense. I think I'd rather complain about ST than anything else.

1988goldenbear (F): WTF is going on? Scholarship kicker is 50% and our (former) potential Ray Guy award winner boots a line drive to one of the better return guys in the conference and then shanks another; still, better than last week.

Maisbikkja (D): That FG in the fourth ruined SC's shutout bid...

Manwich (B+): Remember Nick Harris? I do, and I'm rooting for Anger in the same way. Anger for Heisman, Anger wins the Ray-Guy Award! D'Amato, reminds me of Mark Jensen, I would hold my head, and pray everytime he came on the field.

Coaching

via www.latimes.com

ososdeoro (F): EPIC FAIL. No matter what else may have been done well, not attempting another play before halftime with 12 seconds left was inexcusable. Waiting 15 seconds to call timeout after USC's previous failed third-down conversion was just as bad. And I'm wondering what Ludwig has against the pitch out, and why Gregory thinks two DBs will stop three stacked receivers. I'm also curious as to what Ludwig has against his own game plan. We killed them with Miller on the first drive....then he was never used again until mid-second-half. What happened to try something until they stop it?

Oaktown123 (A): Tedford had good ideas

VN (D): The offensive plan was a joke. Why would you only run Best 14 times? Especially when you KNOW Riley has trouble?

sycasey (F): For the second straight week, it was awful. It wasn't the scheme this time (the play calls actually got receivers open), but rather the total lack of urgency or emotion on the part of the Cal players. Despite the fact that they were getting worked for the second straight week, Cal players were smiling and laughing after making bonehead mistakes. Even Shelley Smith reported during the TV broadcast that the Cal sideline was just plain dead after the first drive ended with an interception. That sounds to me like the coaching staff has lost this team.

OaklandishBear (F): Offensively predictable, again. Wildcat is interesting, but to call it for an entire series? Not taking another shot at the end zone with 12 seconds left in the first half was giving up, in my opinion. Playing scared and just wanted to get some points - and look what that accomplished.

Defensively, the Bears played OK but this year's team seems to be intentionally playing softer in the zones than in the past. It wasn't working with the minimal pressure we put on Barkley, so why not switch it up to Man?

Ohio Bear (D): At risk of letting emotion prevail over analysis, the offensive game plan seemed clueless to me. I didn't get the sense that we really knew what we were doing on offense. The frequency of the Wildcat was weird and the call of the outside pitch to Best on 3rd and short, against a defense with THAT much speed and discipline, was epically bizarre. JT's decision to go for the FG with 12 seconds left in the half was also strange and sent the wrong message to his team going into halftime. We're afraid to make a bad play (i.e., sack) that would run out the clock so we're not going to try to take one more shot at the end zone? Weak.

yorzepol (C-): I think we had a plan against U$C that, if executed well, would have won us the game; the problem was we didn't execute. We also threw the playbook at the Trojans and still couldn't get anything going. How much of that falls on the coaches? How soon do you wait for your QB to get hit his stride before changing the game plan? How many miles must a man walk before they call him a man?

Overall

via stanfordreview.org

Nasty_Nate (F): Was like watching your son come back from rehab and swear he was going to give up the peruvian powder and then the next morning you have to pick him up from jail.
Eventually you have to cut the little bastard off.

Dexter1715 (D): Season's done for me. I can't take it any longer. It's taken too much to watch this humiliation at the hands of SC and other, weaker teams.

I'd bench KR and start working on a QB who loves to compete and is strong under pressure. Gregory needs to get the Defensive to be more intimidating - we're still too soft.

The O-line was embarrassing the past two games. They looked like doormats.

California Pete (F): I remain hopeful, because the schedule makes a nice rebound quite possible, starting with a very welcome bye week. Physically, this team is still pretty healthy, and it's just a matter of guys regaining confidence. The UCLA game just might be the biggest in Tedford's career. Win it, and the Bear's might have a shot at reeling off a bunch of wins and making the Holiday Bowl. Lose it, especially if they do so in ugly fashion once again, and then who knows? Oregon rebounded nicely from its dreadful 2006 season; but there's no guarantee the Bears would bounce back from a bowl-less 2009.

trojanbear (D): I didn't think the players gave up. I also did not see SC having that much of a talent advantage. They executed better. I must be a glutton for punishement becasue I attened both the Oregon and SC games. Having seen both teams. I think at this moment Oregon is actually superior. If we had executed the plays and Riley had been just mediocre instead of horrible this game could have been competitive. There were opportunities we just did not take advantage of them.

HOUSE66 (D-): The first time since ive been a cal fan that i had quit on our team before the 4th quarter. But i also had a good time in the stands joking about how bad we are playing, making it feel like the old days. I DO NOT LIKE THE OLD DAYS, i like being worried, pissed off, not okay with whats happening. The team was just not executing the plays, and alot of them were there. Missed opportunitys early cost us, and now we have two weeks to get back on form.
GO BEARS

How the Illini schedule is shaping up.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:46:00 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

Browse more photos »

Today is the first day of the dreaded bye week, a period of time in which I have to find something other than football to devote my higher brain function to. The team of course has two bye weeks that bookend the Big Ten slate, all thanks to that crazy could awesome could be a disaster schedule. The schedule at the beginning of the year looked to be one of the leagues toughest with the non-con only having one true gimme game. Of course the season reveals what games will be challenges and what will be easier than predicted. Those looking for good news should turn away now.

Ohio State- Tressel and Terl held the #3 in the nation Trojans to 10 points in three and a half quarters on Saturday, and nearly ground the whole thing out Tressel style until a two minute drill at the end of the game.

Good news: The Buckeyes looked vulnerable against the run on the last drive
Bad News: The Illini do not start Joe McKnight.
Prognosis: Tougher

Penn State- The Nits rolled their second straight cupcake with out so much as breaking a sweat. Eat it Paulus. In short we learned nothing we didn't already know.
Good News: Derrick Williams= gone
Bad News: Evan Royster=Still here.
Prognosis: No change, still tough

Michigan State: What is bad news for the conference is good news for the Illini and their hopes for starting at least 2-3. The Spartans fell to the MAC-tacular Central Michigan Chippewas (don't laugh to hard, remember Western Michigan too) in a crazy touchdown-field goal double whammy with an onside kick thrown in for good measure. sure that might not tell us much, but this team that was picked 3rd preseason was also tied at 10 half. Trending downward.
Good News: They lost to a bad MAC team
Bad News: So did we, last year.
Prognosis: easier.

Michigan: Heroics from Tate Forcier to kill the monster that is Notre Dame, great for Michigan, bad for Illini who were hoping to reap the benefits from Rich Rod's gulag of football tyranny. Alas it looks like absent Steven Threet this team is competent offensively once again.
Good News: Notre Dame was probably way overrated anyway
Bad News: Barwis transforms mere mortals into titans of football and anger.
Prognosis: Sigh, much much tougher.

Cincinnati: Crap. and double crap
Prognosis: The wrong team to schedule with bowl hopes on the line.

Oh and just for kicks Fresno State took Wisconsin to double overtime. I can't wait for December (we don't even get the benefit of playing these bad Badgers...)

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part IV: The Receivers

Maize n Brew Dave — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 17:39:47 -0000

Part I: The Offensive Line, can be found here. Part II: The Running Backs, can be found here. Part III: The Quarterback Position, can be found here.

One day till the 2009 Michigan Football season kicks off. If you're not bursting from the seams with excitement you should probably see a doctor. Or a mortician. It's almost kickoff time, baby. We'll get to the Western Michigan preview in good time. But for right now, we need to figure out what we've got on our side of the football. Now if you can't wait until the season starts to know how it's going to turn out, we got you covered there as well. Here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's 2009 Michigan Football season predictions. There's your quick fix if you need a baseline.

But this is the time of year when we break it all down. Position by position. So we're splitting things up in to a couple of separate posts to give you all the information you can handle on what to expect out of Michigan this season. The Depth Chart is out, so we'll break it down. Since we know what to expect out of the Offensive Line, Running Backs (mostly, now that Brandon Minor is out with a plethora of injuries), and Quarterback (Tate Forcier will start), we're left with one group to discuss.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part IV: The Receivers

via www.michigandaily.com

If you're looking to talk about Michigan's receivers last year, it's going to be hard to find a lot of things to discuss. A year after fielding arguably the best set of receivers on the field Michigan has ever had, the Wolverine's fielded arguably their worst group ever. There was almost no production from the receivers last year. Bad quarterback play, new system, loads of injuries, loads of freshmen, and the drops, oh god, the drops. This was not a good unit by any standard and it got worse when the inadequacy at quarterback became so apparent that if you found a safety deep it was because he'd fallen asleep on the previous play. How Michigan amassed 11 touchdowns through the air is a complete mystery to me. There was the Utah touchdown bomb to Hemingway. Threet's over the middle lob to Koger against Wisconsin. Mathew's circus catch against Illinois, and Minor's "god that was cool but that was in no way a real touchdown grab." There are your highlights.

Negativity aside, it's not like this isn't a talented group. It's an insanely talented group. And it was yooooooung last year. Really young. Time to strike of the meme of the off-season: "It's year two, they're older, more experienced. They're gonna RAWK!" Well, they've certainly got the opportunity this year with a new QB who can throw on the run and a line that'll give said new QB some time to throw. If all goes well, this team should double it's production from last year.

The Line-up

The unquestioned leader, guru, and best receiver at Michigan is Senior Greg Mathews. Mathews isn't a burner. Mathews isn't that tall (but compared to Odoms he's a giant). But he's got hands, hands, hands, brains, and outstanding body control. No one on this offense knows the system better than Mathews does. When I interviewed his roommate, Stevie Brown, he told me that everyone on the offense young and old was calling him on assignments, routes and blocks. Mathews is everything you want in a receiver, with the unfortunate exception of speed. Greg's awesome, he's just not fast. There have been numerous comparisons to Jason Avant. I wish I said I could agree, but I don't. Avant was out of this world talented as a receiver, who could make the circus catch look easy. Just because Mathews isn't that fast doesn't make them apt analogies. I'm still waiting for that big game out of Mathews. The reason he hasn't had it is through no fault of his own, but until I see him change a game the way Avant did, I'm still pegging him as best suited to be a number two-three type guy who is being counted on to be a number one receiver. I think Mathews should hit fifty-five catches this season, doubling his yardage, while reaching four or five touchdowns.

On the opposite side of the formation will be Junior Hemingway. You remember him as the "OMG! Did he Desmond that catch!1?!1!!" receiver against Utah who promptly injured everything in his body and caught a case of Mono that I hope came from a really hot girl because it cost him the 2008 season. Hey. That's the risk in college. If she's hot, you can say "Yeah, but you would've" to anyone giving you crap. If fugly? Dude. If that's the case, the penalty suits the crime. Anyway... Hemingway's shown flashes of being the sickeningly awesome deep threat that Michigan so desperately needs. He's a decent route runner, but seems to excel getting off the line and into a race with an airborne football. Personally, I'm really excited about this kid. He's got that extra gear the way Manningham did. Use a stop watch? meh. Let him run in pads? Hellz yeah. That said, it's really hard to project how he's going to perform after missing so much time and having seen so little of him. Honestly, if he chips in 400 yards and pulls in five touchdowns, I'd be pretty happy. But he's certainly got the potential to do a lot more.

More on the receiving corps after the jump...

Moving inside we get to ~~midget~~ slot receiver and tight end. Michigan's leading receiver last year was slot receiver, Martavious Odoms, with 49 catches and 443 yards. Unfortunately, Odoms didn't find the endzone until the Purdue game - and that was on a punt return. Odoms performance elicited strong reactions from just about everyone who watched him. He is obviously an extremely talented football player. He just has problems holding onto the ball. A lot of problems holding onto the ball. As a receiver, I was never particularly taken with the offense's use of Odoms as a primary receiver. He's just too small. Linebackers and safeties engulfed him when he caught the football in the middle of the field. But when he had the ball glued to his hands, he was a lot of fun to watch. Odoms' strengths appear to be those specifically suited to a slot guy. He's good in the short passing game. He's too fast for a Linebacker in one-on-one coverage. He can flare out for a screen. But he wasn't particularly good gauging the ball in the air on the deep throw. I'm willing to attribute a lot of that to a total lack of chemistry with either Steven Threet or Nick Sheridan. There are a pile of talented slot receivers behind him, so Odoms should have a great year. He'll have to in order to keep his job.

At Tight End, star of the Wisconsin game, sophomore Kevin Koger will start. At 6'4" 250, Koger another prototypical tight end in a system that's not so tight end friendly. Howeva, Koger has wheels. Really good ones for a big man. As a result Rodriguez is going to find a way to get him the ball more often. As an added bonus, his being above 6 feet tall should help Tate/Denard see him when they get in trouble. Koger only caught 6 passes last year, so it's tough to gauge him as well. But when you consider he was a four star recruit with a good offer sheet, you can expect good things from him, especially when you consider he seems to be putting the work to be a better player. Maybe 20 catches this year a 2 or 3 TDs.

The Back-ups

On the outside, Michigan has sophomore Darryl Stonum and freshman Je'Ron Stokes waiting to be unleashed. Of the two, Stonum is the more polished guy simply because he's got a year on the freshman. Stonum's another guy with that extra gear in pads that makes football nerds all tingly. Both Stevie Brown and Mark Ortmann praised the work Stonum put in over the winter and spring, and indicated that Stonum was starting to come into his own. Unfortunately, Stonum reported had a bout of the dropsies and hasn't quite done enough to hit the field as a starter yet. Like Stonum, Stokes is another high four star receiver who is in need of some polishing. At this point I don't have a lot to go on with Stokes other than his recruiting hype. That said, I have to imagine we'll see more of him as a freshman than we're going to see of LaTerryal Savoy or James Rogers.

Savoy and Rogers are upperclassmen who simply haven't panned out. Savoy pulled in a sprig practice touchdown, but that probably sums up his career as a Wolverine. Practice game hero. Savoy does have some game experience and has hauled in a few catches, but he's not a viable receiver in this offense, or at least he's never shown himself to be one. Savoy will see some time by virtue of being a senior with more experience in the system, but if he's in the game late, either he's turned into an incredible receiver over night, or we're screwed. For Rogers, replace "Savoy" with "Rogers" in the preceding four sentences.

At slot, Michigan's cup runneth over with small, darty, fast dudes. The first option on that list is currently former Michigan Basketball Point Guard, Kelvin Grady. At 5'10", Grady is easily the tallest of the slot receivers and frankly probably one of the best. Grady killed his football recruting hype by publicly declaring he wanted to play basketball exclusively before his junior year. The football services therein turned off. It's a shame too. Grady had some "dear holy god" type runs for East Grand Rapids as a junior and senior. He generated plenty of practice buzz by making some sick catches and showing everyone that three years away from football, all while playing D1 basketball, has positive effects on the body. Think about it. Three years without getting the crap knocked out of you but still running, cutting, getting banged around some, and drilling your body into peak physical shape without a 317 lbs dude diving at your spine and/or knees. So Grady walks onto the field healthy, with excellent peripheral vision, and faster than he would've been as a freshman. Not bad. I don't think Grady will over take Odoms for the starting slot, but the fact we can discuss it tells you just how talented a football player Grady is after a month of practice. Grady's probably the best story I've heard of, football wise, in a long time. So naturally, I'm really pulling for him to succeed. Why else would I devote more space to him than a couple of the starters?

Immediately after Grady, if not before, is Roy Roundtree. A slot receiver who is curiously between six feet and six-three, and just learning how to see. Apparently, Roundtree's eyesight was horrid and he was somehow making catches without being able to really see the ball clearly. How the hell does that happen? Now he's got contacts and is, according to Stevie Brown, was of the fastest, quickest players on the team. At 6'3" with speed and quickness I've gotta imagine he'll eventually get split out wide, but he's listed at slot so that's where we'll keep him. Behind Roundtree is Terrance Robinson. Robinson was a mid-high recruit whose size limited his recruitment. There's been little buzz about him at camp. He's there, he's had a year in the system, but until he starts catching the ball consistently enough to find his way onto the playing field, I really don't know what to tell you about him.

Finally, at the Tight End position, Martell Webb will back up Kevin Koger. Webb had a good freshman season but didn't see much time last year. Like Koger, Webb was a highly rated recruit who may have had a little too much culture shock from Barwis/Rodriguez arrival. As a result, he saw Koger take the starting job from him. This year, Webb had a fairly good camp and should be able to step in immediately without any drop off in production at the TE position.

The Take Away

Though it might not sound like it from the snarky comments above, I do like this group. I'm just not in love with it. There isn't the presence of a bona-fide No.1 receiver right now. Our lead pass catcher is a slot guy I can fit in my pocket and our best deep threat is a sneeze away from injuring himself again. But there is a lot of speed on the outside. Michigan does have a guaranteed catch in Mathews. And there's actually going to be a quarterback who can throw the ball to them this year.

A lot of the negatives I saw last year can probably be attributed to the horrid play under center, but there is plenty of room for improvement here. Most critically, holding onto the ball. Drops were an issue last year just as much as fumbles were. I think a year of practice will help that, but i also think a year of playing will ease a lot of other maladies as well. No more stopping just short of the first down marker on a pattern. No more juking around and losing six yards instead of falling forward and gaining two. Youth and inexperience are usually cured by the passage time.

Well, it's a year later, so we'll find out shortly. I figure this group should be good for 14-16 touchdowns and just under 2,000 yards receiving. That's a pretty optimistic view. If they crack 1,700 yards and 12-14 touchdowns, I'd still be fairly happy.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part III: The Quarterback Position

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:38:14 -0000

Part I: The Offensive Line, can be found here. Part II: The Running Backs, can be found here.

Three days till the 2009 Michigan Football season kicks off. If you're not bursting from the seams with excitement you should probably see a doctor. Or a mortician. It's almost kickoff time, baby. We'll get to the Western Michigan preview in good time. But for right now, we need to figure out what we've got on our side of the football. Now if you can't wait until the season starts to know how it's going to turn out, we got you covered there as well. Here are Beauford's, MnB Dave's, and SCM's 2009 Michigan Football season predictions. There's your quick fix if you need a baseline.

But this is the time of year when we break it all down. Position by position. So we're splitting things up in to a couple of separate posts to give you all the information you can handle on what to expect out of Michigan this season. The Depth Chart is out, so we'll break it down. Since we know what to expect out of the Offensive Line, and Running Backs (mostly, now that Brandon Minor is out with a plethora of injuries), lets move on to a position with a lot of expectations, and talent, but not a lot of experience.

2009 Michigan Football Season Preview, Part III: The Quarterback Position

Michigan's 2008 Quarterback Play in a Single Picture. via Mlive.com

To say Michigan's quarterback play was rancid last season wouldn't do justice to the word "rancid". Rancid as compared to Michigan's quarterback play would make rancid seem like your were in a field of blooming roses and strawberries. I've honestly never seen two young kids so overmatched by what they assigned to carry out in my life. It was like handing a six year old a pile of metal and telling him to build a nuclear reactor. Almost. You'd have to have the six year old running for his life from 300 lbs men while trying to build said reactor for the analogy to be apt.

Rodriguez spent the entirety of last year trying to run his spread offense with two kids, while upstanding, nice young men, were totally and completely ill suited for the task. This didn't stop me from predicted they'd be fine, by the way. Especially Steven Threet. Sigh....

Steven Threet is a *4 QB (in both services) with an Elite 11 camp pedigree. He's a bright guy, with a cannon for an arm. Hell, Shaun King excelled in Rodriguez system so there's no reason Threet can't.

I didn't stop there:

However, Steven Threet or Nick Sheridan or Justin Feagin all ran the Spread in high school, so each of them has some knowledge of what the system entails and their better suited to run whatever version of the Spread Rodriguez installs than anyone who’s taken the snaps at Michigan for the last decade. So while the signal caller may not be Rodriguez prototypical player, whomever he names the starter will be more than capable for running the offense.

Oh God. Make it stop!

Obviously, there is peril in this. Reality loves nothing more than overblown expectations and denial. Hopes were made to be crushed, hearts made to be broken. Some might say such bravado is reminiscent of Icarus, overcome by his dreams and thoughts to the extent he failed to heed to the reality of the warming Sun....

I say if Icarus used a stronger glue, he'd still be flying.

/tears, sobbing/

Alright... (sniff... sob....)... I'm back.

(2009 Michigan Quarterback Preview after the Jump!)

I was horribly, horribly wrong about Threet's abilities. I was even more wrong about Sheridan's, if that's possible. I thought Nick could run. No. No, he can't. He runs like wood. You (desk bound, flabby you) have a better chance of escaping from a hungry bear than Sheridan had escaping the rush or getting to the line of scrimmage on a QB keeper. The numbers were horrific. Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2.

Sheridan	Passing
YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2008	63	137	613	46.0	4.47	45	2	5	6	81.08

Threet	Passing
YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2008	102	200	1105	51.0	5.53	51	9	7	15	105.26

So, yes. It was as bad as you remember. Now maybe you're better at repressing memories than I am and have convinced yourself you were at Disney World all last season, but I can't get over how bad it really was. My Domer wife asking me, "Are these two bozos really your best options at quarterback?" My responding "yes" followed by her laughing at me and pointing to every barn we passed on the way back from South Bend and asking whether Threet or Sheridan could hit the side of it. Gentlemen. You have earned a place in my personal hell for that car ride. Well, Steven Threet is gone, transferring (again) to Arizona State. Justin Feagin is gone to who knows where, but sadly and most likely, on his way to jail. That leaves us with two freshman. A senior backup with mad flow. And Sheridan.

/tears welling in eyes... looking down... grabbing podium..../

Too soon for that joke? Anyway, hope springs eternal. So now that we've had our hearts ripped out it's time to rebuild. We can do it. We have the technology.

Starter(s)

Yes. That is plural. As of today, Rich Rodriguez still maintains that we're going to see all three quarterbacks against Western Michigan. He just hasn't said how much of each and how often he's going to make a switch. The three options are Senior Nick Sheridan, and True Freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. You know about Sheridan. If not. Don't ask. Dammit. I told you not to ask. Fine.

Yes, that did just happen. via Mlive.com

Sheridan was and is a non-rated recruit out of high school who blew his knee out his senior year. As a result, any recruiting buzz disappeared and Sheridan walked-on to Lloyd Carr's program. It wasn't until everyone and their mother pulled up stakes following Lloyd's departure and Michigan was left with two scholarship QBs (Threet and David Cone), that Sheridan was brought out of the practice squad pads and put in as a scholarship QB. The result of which is captioned above. I will say that Sheridan looks very, very different this year. He A LOT stronger. His passes in practice have more zip. He seems confident. Not like the lost little puppy we saw last year. But he's still Nick Sheridan. As Rodriguez says, he's the "safe" starter. And if by "safe" you mean "not a freshman" or "player most likely to fan the fan base scream at throw things if he's under center." Sorry folks. He's a good kid. But unless he's undergone surgery and had Tom Brady surgically placed under his skin, I just can't see him as a legitimate D1 quarterback. But I'd love to be wrong on that.

via imageshack.us

The player with the second most experience (that will actually play) is Tate Forcier. Forcier was in for Spring Practice and started the Spring Game. Anyone who's followed the site or Michigan football knows all about the show he put on. I've covered Forcier in depth before, so I'll try not to rehash it too much. Forcier comes from a family of quarterbacks. His oldest brother Jason played at Michigan and Stanford. His younger-older brother was at UCLA before transferring, not so subtly. Tate, well, he's the culmination of all that breeding and labwork in the Forcier family labs. And, dammit, he showed it as a starter in High School. Last year Forcier's numbers are a shiny beacon of hope for this year. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs.

Forcier is a solid, young QB. He throws an excellent deep ball. He's got great scrambling ability and actually possesses a "feel" for the pocket. He's a good improviser. He throws really well on the run (a staple of the Rodriguez system). He's a natural leader. Several TV commentators have said, he has "it" when they talk about his presence. A certain j'ne sais quoi, that makes him seem like the quarterback of the future at Michigan. Tate's been in the weight room all summer with Barwis. He's learned the playbook. He's been throwing and running just like what Rodriguez would want. He played every snap with the Spring #1 offense! With all this hype why isn't he the unquestioned starter?

Because of this guy.

via Detroit News

Denard Robinson: Lightning bolt. Hands down the fastest player on Michigan's roster. There was talk about a show down between Troy Woolfolk and Robinson for fastest player on the team, but that talk seems to have died down when Robinson started busting off touchdown runs of 58, 68 and 72 yards in practice. My man's got speed. You can't teach speed. You're just blessed with it. The knock on Robinson, or at least the expectation was that he couldn't throw particularly well. His high school passing numbers were really suspect and his rushing number completely overshadowed anything he did throwing the ball. Come on. The kid ran a 100 meter race in 10.3 seconds. How can you not be excited about this and completely ignore his ability to throw the ball? Woo!

Well, it turns out the kid can throw the ball. Pretty well actually. During the close of practice a week or two ago he hit Mathews in stride for a 40+ touchdown pass. Reports out of camp say he's got the short passing game down pat and is advancing on the intermediate stuff quite nicely. He apparently throws well on the run. And he's only been practicing for real, for less than a month! Gerry DiNardo on the Big Ten Network put it best, (paraphrasing) "the fact that we're discussing whether Forcier or Robinson should start, especially when Forcier's been there longer, should tell you something."

Yeah, something wonderful. Michigan's got two kids who can and should start. While MGoBlog believes Tate Forcier is going to end up your eventual starting QB, I'm not so sure anymore. While going into camp I really believed that Forcier would grab hold of the starting job, a lot of that was based on my prior belief that Robinson was a non-arm. What's readily apparent is that by working with Coach Rod Smith, Robinson's really progressed quite nicely. And Robinson has something that Forcier doesn't have as much of, speed and elusiveness. Robinson is as close to Pat White as we've got right now. Quirky developing throwing mechanics, but space warping speed that actually sees him gain a ton and a half as he approaches light speed. That's right. I just dropped science on your ass.

Projections

Honestly, you can't go wrong with either Forcier or Robinson at this point. They're still freshmen. They're still learning. They're both going to make horrid mistakes. But they're also going to get better. My money has Forcier starting the Western game and being the better passer. Robinson rips off some huge runs against the depleted Broncos Defense and nothing is solved. What it'll come down to is Tate and Denard battling it out against Notre Dame. Against the Tenuta Blitz, I'm betting Robinson's elusiveness wins him the second half start against ND. You've got to be able to make the first guy miss in this offense. Based on what I've heard, Robinson's just a little better at that than Tate, and when they miss it's all over.

This is a good problem to have, people. After last year's lying to myself about the position and trying to ignore just how bad it was going to be, I'm not filled with the same dread. These two are light years ahead of where Michigan was at the end of last year. They have a decent returning line, lots of talent in the backfield, and a couple of players to throw to. Either one of these kids, by themselves, would be our opening day starter by a mile. Because they're both here, we get the benefit of their best every day in practice because they both want to start.

My prediction must be caveated on the assumption that Robinson can throw. What I've seem on video and the stuff I've gotten through sources says he can. But if Robinson's arm isn't as reputed, then it's Forcier all the way. Howeva, if Robinson can throw, I think Tate starts against Western Michigan but that it's the Denard Robinson show from thereon with Tate playing consistently as the second guy in the rest of the season. We'll see. But either way, it'll be better than last year. My guess? Combined the two go for 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TDs. It's optimistic but reasonable at the same time. maybe the passing yards are lower. Maybe there are more rushing yards. But we're back to being excited about the quarterback position.

An early look at the Michigan Wolverines.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:00:16 -0000

More photos » by David Banks - AP

Hot? Nah, lukewarm at best.

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Michigan Wolverines
Last meeting: 11/11/2006 (Michigan 34, Indiana 3)
Last IU win: 10/24/1987 (14-10 in Bloomington)
Series: Michigan leads 50-9
Coach: Rich Rodriguez (2nd year, 3-9)

College football's all-time winningest programs are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and USC. Before 2008, Michigan stood alone compared even to those elite programs and really as the only program in college football that had avoided even a single disastrous season in the last 30 years. Before, 2008, Michigan's last losing season was in 1967, and the Wolverines had last missed a bowl game following the 1974 season (back when Big Ten teams went to the Rose Bowl or nothing at all) . Last season, under the leadership of first-year coach Rich Rodriguez, Michigan endured its worst season since going 2-7 in 1962.

Rodriguez, a West Virginia alum who left his alma mater to go to Ann Arbor, won over 70 percent of his games at WVU, including a 32-5 record in his last three seasons. It has become a bit fashionable to gloat about Michigan's misfortune and to predict doom and gloom for Rodriguez, and it is hard to believe that a program that recruits so well could fall so far in a single season, but I'm not on the anti-Rodriguez bandwagon. I'll certainly be glad to eat my words, but I think he'll be fine. His 3-8 record at WVU in 2001 was the school's worst record since 1978, but he righted the ship quickly. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Rodriguez and the Wolverines wallow in mediocrity or worse for a few more years, but I'll be surprised if it happens. Rodriguez has worked his was on to a number of "coaching hot seat lists," followed by incredulity by those who follow the program.

IU and Michigan last played on November 11, 2006. In the post-1997 (national championship) era, the Wolverines probably have never been in a better position than they were on that day. The Wolverines were #2 in the nation, right behind rival Ohio State, and easily beat the Hoosiers in Bloomington. The next week, OSU beat Michigan, then the Wolverines lost the Rose Bowl to USC, and then they dropped their 2007 opener to I-AA power Appalachian State. Despite a win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl at the end of the 2007 season, the Michigan program really hasn't been the same since.

Here is the NCAA's summary of Michigan's 2009 season. Michigan was uniformly bad, but particularly on offense. The Wolverines ranked #109 in total offense, #108 in passing offense, #67 in total defense, and #84 in scoring defense. Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan shared time at QB last season, but all of the preseason attention is focused on true freshman QB Nate Forcier (Threet transferred and Sheridan seems to be far down the depth chart). At running back, Brandon Minor, who ran for only 533 yards but averaged over 5 yards per carry, probably is Michigan's best returning player. Leading receivers Matravius Odoms and Greg Matthews return. On defense, DE Brandon Graham, with 10 sacks last year, returns, as do leading tacklers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton. It's odd to compare Michigan's football program in any way to IU's, but much like the Hoosiers, Michigan returns a number of key contributors, but those players contributed to a bad team.

Obviously, this is a very initial look at the Wolverines, and I will have more as the week four game approaches. Michigan has owned the Hoosiers for as long as the two programs have played. IU last beat Michigan in 1987 and last won in Ann Arbor in 1967. As bad as Michigan was last year, the Wolverines probably would have beat the 2008 Hoosiers by 2 or 3 touchdowns. Most prognosticators, based on Michigan's youth and poor 2008 performance but mindful of the talent on hand, predict about a 6-6 season for Michigan. That means that if the Hoosiers are going to find a way to win 6 or 7 games (it's August, indulge me), the Michigan game should be on the could-win list. I expect IU to be a double digit underdog in this game, but a win at the Big House is not out of the realm of possibility for a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team. If 2008 is any measure, IU is a long way from the middle of the pack, but that goal should remain within reach when these teams play September 25.

MSU Unit Preview: Safeties

Pete Rossman — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 01:11:29 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

7 months ago: Michigan State white team's Danny Fortener, left, intercepts a pass in the end zone against the green team's Mark Dell (2) on a two-point conversion attempt to preserve the white team's 38-37 overtime win in Michigan State's Green-White football game Saturday, April 25, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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Now that it's less than a month until football season, it's time to start breaking down who'll be playing for the Spartans this season. Previously at The Only Colors, we profiled the special teams, and in this article, we'll be breaking down the safeties. The starters, backups, and more can all be found after the jump.

FREE SAFETY: THE STARTER (as of August 7th)

Trenton Robinson (5'10", 190 lbs., Soph.)

After collecting six tackles on special teams all of last season, Robinson soared into the starting spring safety spot after recording eight tackles and breaking up a pass (one of the few incompletions) during the spring game this year. After that performance, Dantonio was clearly delighted (it's behind the scowl, MSU fans can interpret these emotions after a while)

"Trenton Robinson is a solid all-round football player," Dantonio said. "In the spring, he showed that not only can he can run; he can hit too."

The running we knew; he clocked a 10.49 100 in high school. The hitting was unknown, as on the MSU secondary, 190 lbs. seems a bit light where backs routinely are over 200 lbs. He'll see a lot of playing time this season, but I'm not sure he'll be the starter out of camp, because behind him currently is...

THE BACKUP (once again, as of August 7th)

Kendell Davis-Clark (6'0", 210 lbs., R-Sr.)

KDC was the starter to start the season last year, then that nasty shoulder separation happened in the first game. From there, he only started three more games as Danny Fortener took over the starting duties for most of the season. In the Capital One Bowl though, he got his first career interception (which is about time for someone with 19 career starts at cornerback and safety), and looked to be on track to start against Montana State. However, his shoulder wasn't completely healed, and was held out of spring practice. If the bright lights of the quarterback and running back position battles are blinding you, take a breather and observe the battle for starting free safety. It might be the most underrated position battle in camp this month.

THE SPECIAL TEAMER

Jesse Johnson (5'10", 188 lbs., R-Jr.)

Johnson had the highlight of his career last year when he blocked a punt last year against Cal. As a walk-on, it goes without saying that he'll be used in special teams, and if he sees time at free safety, State might be in trouble. Of course, I said the same thing about Danny Fortener last year, and he turned out not half-bad. In short, Jesse's job is to either block punts or run down the field on kickoffs and hit people, both of which he does well.

STRONG SAFETY: THE CO-STARTERS

Danny Fortener (6'2", 205 lbs., R-Sr) and Marcus Hyde (6'0", 206 lbs., Jr.)

As previously mentioned, Fortener was at free safety last year, where he recorded 69 tackles, broke up seven passes and had two interceptions. The one big knock he had was that he was slow; he did seem to be a half-step slow against some of the tougher competition MSU faced. That's not to say he didn't live up to expectations. In fact, he actually exceeded most of the expectations the fan base had when he went in for KDC last year. I do think the strong safety role suits him a bit better.

The start Marcus Hyde received was also due to an injury. When Otis Wiley went out before the Michigan game, Hyde stepped in and got an interception (granted with a low degree of difficulty, Steven Threet did throw the pass after all). He platooned the strong safety spot with Wiley for the rest of the season, and he had 23 tackles in the last six games. I didn't see Marcus make the spectacular plays Wiley used to make but then again, I also didn't see Marcus completely whiff on tackles a few times, also like what Wiley used to do. It's purely academic at this point who'll be the starter, but there's a third safety ready to compete for the spot.

THE PRODIGAL

Roderick Jenrette (6'1", 205 lbs., R-Jr.)

In 2007, Jenrette had 15 tackles before sitting out the last three games with a shoulder injury. Then, as far as most know, something happened, and Jenrette ended up indefinitely suspended from the team for all of 2008. Dantonio didn't speculate anything beyond having to get some personal issues and academics in line, and unless Jenrette wants to elaborate someday, that's probably all we'll ever know. What happened in the past doesn't matter now, as Jenrette earned his way back onto the team a couple weeks ago. Cheers to Jenrette for working his way back on the team, and - keep in mind he was the assumed backup strong safety going into 2008 - it wouldn't surprise me if he was the starter at some point.

THE SPECIAL TEAMER

Brynden Trawick (6'2", 225 lbs., R-Fr.)

Trawick, from Georgia, was the source of some speculation last year regarding his future position. At 6'2" and 225, it's no wonder why some thought linebacking might be in his future. He's a strong safety for now, and if Jenrette hadn't returned, he'd be in the mix for a spot in the two-deep. As of now, he's the odd man out, and he'll probably have to wait until next year to see any significant playing time at safety, and until his junior year for a chance to start. With his speed (4.51 in the 40 as a senior in high school) and his size, he'll be a nice gunner on special teams.

Overall, there's a lot of depth at safety. The person I'm most interested to see is Trenton Robinson, as he made some nice plays on special teams last year. I'll be watching to see if those big play skills transfer.

As for the rest of the units, they're coming in no particular order. However, we'll probably save quarterback for last, because I want something else to report besides "Cousins has experience and Nichol is fast". Until next time compadres.

Mizzou 2009, Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

RPT — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert scrambles for yardage during the spring Black and Gold college football scrimmage on Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

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By this point, Missouri fans know all the questions around the conference. Is Kansas the most talented team in the North and, if so, will the schedule still prevent them from winning the division? Is Nebraska officially "back" enough to take the division despite trips to Columbia and Lawrence? Is this the year Colorado finally justifies a slew of "sleeper picks" from assorted media?

Within the confines of the Missouri program, there are multiple questions, to be sure. How will the offense and defense perform under new coordinators? What kind of depth can Missouri develop on the defensive line? Does the pass defense have anywhere to go but up?

But there's simply no avoiding THE question, and that question comes in the form of the 6-5, 240-pound righty wearing No. 11 behind center: How exactly will Blaine Gabbert perform for the Missouri Tigers in 2009? That question spawns another question, however. What is a fair expectation for Gabbert in 2009?

And, thus, the impossibility of determining the parameters of statistical success begins.

Now, I don't aim to (nor could I) infringe upon the statistical sovereignty of The Boy Bill C., but for months, I'd been wanting to look at the first year numbers of quarterbacks in similar situations. What follows the jump is a year-by-year breakdown of the last four seasons, looking at underclassmen in their first years of starting for teams coming off of a season in which they were ranked OR at least received votes in the final AP poll, as well as what their performances may mean for Gabbert in 2009.

2008
(click to enlarge)

2008 fails to provide a compelling comparative paradigm for Gabbert. It's somewhat hard to believe, but Marc Verica ends up as the gunslinger of the group in terms of attempts, finishing with the highest completion percentage but also an unsightly 1:2 TD:INT ratio. The two crown jewels of this group, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli, can attribute a decent portion of their successes to unique skill sets, skill sets not likely to be seen from Gabbert unless Yost begins calling the zone read 35 times a game. It's here where we begin to see why style of play is the lurking variable in this equation. This exception also applies to Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, whom I lumped into a collective vortex of mediocrity in the first year of the Rich Rod regime. The interesting cases here are Jarrett Lee and Mike Hartline. They had the collective misfortune of stepping under center following two extremely successful predecessors in Matt Flynn and Andre Woodson. Lee, in addition to throwing six pick-sixes amongst his 16 INTs, accounted for 22 percent less yardage than Flynn. Hartline's struggles to replace Woodson's 3700+ yards and 40 TDs resulted in more playing time for Randall Cobb.

2007
(click to enlarge)

Talk about a small sample size. Raise your hand if you were expecting comparisons between Gabbert and Chris Turner and Sean Canfield. As a sophomore, Turner (and his awesome blond afro) supplanted Jordan Steffy as the starter for the Terps for the last eight games of the season. Yes, Gabbert is expected to lean heavily upon Derrick Washington and DeVion Moore, but in 2007, Turner's job was to defer to seniors Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball to the tune of 32 carries a game. Canfield's numbers are slightly skewed by a late-season injury, as well as Oregon State's 55-45 run-pass numbers in 2007. Yost has indicated throughout the offseason that he'd love to get Missouri closer to a 50-50 split, but it's hard to imagine MU keeping the ball on the ground 55 percent of the time. And then there's Sam Bradford, the football equivalent of the guy who always ruined the curve in all your classes. Don't get me wrong, I'd love nothing more than to have Gabbert put up Bradford-esque numbers, but placing an expectation of a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and a Big 12 title is almost the QB equivalent of Coulter-level hype.

2006
(click to enlarge)

OK, remember what I said about Bradford ruining the curve? I take it back. Look at the yearly comparison. Graham Harrell alone might have been enough skew the numbers (after all, the attempts -- usually in the 280 range -- spiked to 373), but throw in great debuts for Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy and an under-appreciated season from Nate Longshore and the numbers jump. Instead of settling near the 3:2 TD:INT ratio for the four-year average, this rather prodigious group edged closer to 2:1. Here is where we start to get a better window for comparison. Gabbert is indelibly linked to Daniel, but is the average Missouri fan expecting him to approach the numbers reached by Daniel in 2006? It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but he also inherits a cupboard that (although not bare) isn't nearly as stacked as Daniel's was. With the Big 12 skewing the averages, the completion percentage, yards/attempt, and TD:INT ratio start to seem fair given Gabbert's situation in 2009.

2005
(click to enlarge)

If you bow at the throne of Rivals rankings, allow me to cite chapter 2005. In the previous three years covered, only one five-star underclassman (Matthew Stafford in 2006) had seen significant starting time for a team coming off of a season in which the program received Top 25 votes. The 2005 sample includes two five-stars in Kyle Wright and Rhett Bomar. For all the grief Wright got during his tenure at Miami, it all started relatively well in 2005. The 18 TDs would be a career high for Wright. Meanwhile, Bomar used his time off from Big Red Sports/Imports to put together a slightly less impressive debut. Granted, Oklahoma ran the ball on 59 percent of plays in 2005 thanks to the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Kejuan Jones, keeping his numbers (and his importance to that offense) relatively low.

What does it all mean?
(click to enlarge per game averages)

So, what does it all mean? Very little. The numbers show that the majority of underclassman starters even at recently successful programs A) are going to be relatively protected, B) will be hard pressed to have the astronomical TD:INT ratios we're used to, and C) can't really provide us with a perfect mold to place around Gabbert. According to the numbers, the average line of the first-year underclassman starter ends up being 15-for-25 for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick. More Derrick Washington or less Derrick Washington, it's difficult to envision Gabbert only putting the ball up 25 times a game. In the 2006 analysis, I said those numbers start to look fair for Gabbert: 60 percent completion, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Presuming Gabbert hovers around the 35 attempt average, that puts his nightly projections around 21-for-35 for 255 yards, and hopefully not worse than 2 TDs/1 INT.

Of course, in the end, gaudy stats don't necessarily mean success (see: Juice Williams' 451 yards and 4 TD against Missouri last season). But as much as I can dance around applying finite expectations to Gabbert (and trust me, NO ONE loves ignoring stats for gut feelings more than me), if it's time to start applying digits to Gabbert's debut season as starter, this seems like as good a launching point for discussion as any.

Poll

Ignoring wins as the obvious indicator of success, on a per game average, is the proposed stat line (21/35, 255 yards, 2-4 TD, 1-2 INT) a fair expectation of success for Blaine Gabbert?

No, that expects too much of him

28 votes

Yes, seems about right

150 votes

No, expectations should be higher

28 votes

206 votes | Poll has closed

Deconstructing Meme: The System Won't Work

Beauford — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:46:42 -0000

Go on over the Bucknuts.com (no really, I dare you), and make a quick post about what they think of Rodriguez. You'll quickly get a slew of answers, and through the incoherence of most of them, you'll pick up on one popular theme: his system won't work in the Big Ten. At first, this wasn't an internet exclusive meme; major media outlets were clamoring to pile on to the "spread won't work in the 3-yards and cloud of dust Big 10" bandwagon. Since, the MSM have backed off slightly, and yet the Internet commenting continues unabated. Take a look at this Eleven Warriors post (featuring MnB Dave!). Notice the last paragraph?

Honestly, I am not convinced this offense is going to work in the Big Ten and I am still not sold on RichRod’s overall style.

Here's why they're wrong:

"Players not schemes"

The first thing you'll notice whenever a member of Rodriguez's staff, or the coach himself, is asked whether his scheme will work is just how much they downplay the importance of it. Por Exemplo:

Rodriguez:

There's a lot of talking about schemes, but more important is execution.

Robinson:

People are all worried about systems...It's more about an attitude. We'll get a system, but it's not like we're going to reinvent the wheel. We'll try to emphasize strengths and hide weaknesses.

The "Rodriguez system" is clearly secondary, in the minds of the coaches, to the actual players they have running that system. Gsimms, the Michigan blogosphere's resident coach, is fond of the saying "jimmies and joes, not X's and O's." It's the talent on the field that makes or breaks the system; not the system making the talent. If there is a legitimate concern here, it's whether Rodriguez can get the talent needed to be competitive, not whether his system will work. Early returns are positive pending the onslaught on 3-star types in this year's class.

The Shifting Big Ten

Any questions as to whether a shot-gun based spread offense will work in the Big Ten have already been answered. Take a look at these 2008 statistics for total offense:

Penn State: 449 YPG; 1st in Big Ten

Illinois: 438 YPG; 2nd in Big Ten

Purdue: 375 YPG: 4th in Big Ten

Notice anything in common here? They're all spread teams! The notion that the Big Ten continues to be a pound it on the ground type of conference is complete myth. Even the most vocal fan base in terms of Rodriguez skepticism, Ohio State, will be running a primarily shot-gun spread offense with Pryor this year. I know not all spreads are created equal, but here's a look at the run/pass ratio of the above teams compared to Michigan's run/pass ratio:

Penn State: 39 Rushing attempts per game (RAPG)/29 Passing attempts per game (PAPG)

Illinois: 38 RAPG/32 PAPG

Purdue: 32 RAPG/41 PAPG

Michigan: 32 RAPG/28 PAPG

Note the depressed number of total plays on Michigan's behalf; a sign of a struggling offense. Regardless, the ratio of Michigan's run/pass is nearly the same as Penn State and Illinois, the two top offenses in the conference last year. A stupid point that may need clearing up: this isn't meant to show that Michigan's offense was in the ballpark of either of those two offense. But it does show that Rodriguez's system - at least in terms of being a rush-oriented spread offense - can work in the Big Ten. The two top offenses last year were both rush-oriented spreads with nearly identical balances of run/pass.

But he runs that wacky 3-3-5!

Um, no. No he doesn't:

Switching to the 3-4 Defense

Rodriguez said that Michigan will run a base 3-4 but also play some 4-3. The switch to the 3-4 is partially to counter the spread nature of the new offenses that the Big Ten is shifting to, but also on the recommendation of Greg Robinson, his new DC. When Robinson came in, Rodriguez told us that he did a thorough evaluation of the players, depth, and positions. Robinson then came to Rodriguez and said "This is what I have, strengths and weaknesses. Let's put in a package that fits them." As a result, Michigan is implementing the 3-4.

Spread QB's are too vulnerable and will get hurt. Pat White broke his thumb!

While not a definitive answer, a good start is here, from an mgodiary entitled "Busting the Myth of Option QB Fragility." There is a lot of sorting of QB's into different categories, and I suggest you read the entire thing, but the upshot is this:

Surprise, surprise the critics are wrong. On a percentage basis the only group that suffered an out of norm injury percentage were level 2 QBs which I think of as QBs that are used like running backs (Juice Wiliams) or QBs that are too slow to be running in the first place (Steven Threet). All other groups suffered injuries at about a 23% clip. Meaning about 1 out of every 4 QBs in a given category lost playing time due to injury in 2008.

If your QB is leading the team in rushing, or is too slow to be successfully used as a rusher (Threet) then he's probably going to get hurt. Even if you combine 2 groups of what MCaliber - author of diary - calls "run-first" and "dual threat" quarterbacks, you'll find that that group gets injured 32% of the time. Statue QB's get injured 23% of the time. The difference is there, but not nearly in the season-ending OMG this won't work way the doomsday folks predict. Pat White just got unlucky and broke his thumb.

The Upshot

The upshot is that the meme of "Rodriguez's system won't work" is, in a word, stupid. It didn't work last year because Rodriguez didn't have the players to run it. A system very similar to Rodriguez's - as run by Penn State and Illinois - worked to the tune of the top two offenses in the conference. Rodriguez has been adamant that his system is not going to win football games; his players are. Last year's players were too raw or too injured to be effective, which is why he lost 9 games. Excuses are like assholes? Maybe. But the evidence is there to suggest that a rush-oriented spread attack will work in the Big Ten. One needs only to look at last year's offensive rankings as a conference to get proof.