SB Nation - Aric Goodman

Post Game Reaction - Colorado Buffaloes Lose Season Finale to Nebraska 28 - 20

irish1611 — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:33:32 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

23 days ago: After losing his helmet in the scrum, Nebraska defensive end Barry Turner (99), right, pursues Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen, left, for the sack in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo., on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

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The Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3, 6-2) scored 14 points via special teams and an interception to upend the Colorado Buffaloes (3-9, 2-6) 28 - 20 in the Buffs' last game of the 2009 season. On a beautiful day in Boulder, the Buffs played well at times and in other situations, they continued to be their own worst enemy, something that has become a staple for the Buffs in Dan Hawkins' four years at Colorado.

The Colorado defense only allowed 14 points and held the Cornhuskers' offense to just 217 yards, only 73 of which came through the air. Cha'pelle Brown played wonderfully in his final game as a Buff including a sack of Husker QB Zac Lee. The senior cornerback was also awarded this season's Buffalo Heart Award, presented annually to a Buffs player by fans. Colorado's defense has played relatively well since the West Virginia game but were never helped by its offensive and special teams counterparts for most of the season.

OG Ryan Miller and the offensive line did very well on DT Ndamukong Suh, even though the announcers kept making it out to be that Suh had 50 tackles and 20 sacks while being blocked by 19 players. Suh was the benefactor of a sack on a poor intentional grounding flag thrown in the third quarter that was clearly a tipped pass to Rodney Stewart. The penalty pushed the ball back to the 34 yard line and resulted in a missed field goal. That one phantom sack by Suh was the only sack given up today, a major improvement. QB Tyler Hansen still had to do some scrambling but the Buffs never were in 3rd and 20's because of a Husker sack.

Buff WR Markques Simas caught six balls for 107 yards. Although he was not featured enough tonight, he finished the month of November with 462 yards and 31 receptions. A very impressive last month for the sophomore receiver and will be a positive going into next season. Simas did not have a ball thrown his way until the 8 minute mark of the second quarter and had only one catch in the first half. Colorado forgot about him until half number two. Scotty McKnight, thanks to a 56 yard touchdown reception as time expired, also finished with over 100 yards, the second time the duo has accomplished that this year. McKnight had 7 catches for 114 yards and two scores. RB Rodney Stewart also went over the century mark with 110 yards on 21 carries as well.

Overall, the Buffs out gained Nebraska 403 to 217. They had 20 first downs to the Huskers' 14.

But, Colorado made enough mistakes to end up with their ninth loss of the season in a very winnable game.

more after the jump...

Tyler Hansen completed less than 50% of his passes and threw three interceptions as the Buffs lost the turnover battle by two. Colorado continues to struggle in the turnover margin category, often making more mistakes than the other team. One of the interceptions resulted in a Nebraska defensive touchdown.

The Buffs also gave up another non-defensive touchdown on a low line drive punt in the first quarter that WR Nebraska Niles Paul returned 59 yards for a 7 - 0 lead.

Special teams play continues to doom the Buffs. In the first quarter, the Buffs starting field position averaged the 8.5 yard line while Nebraska started at the 46. K Aric Goodman's performance continues to be abysmal as he missed two field goals in the second half that would have brought the Buffs within one point, 21 - 20, with 13:35 left in the game. The last two years, Goodman is 15 of 32 on field goal attempts, hitting only 46%. In 2009, he is 10 of 18. Essentially, the Buffs turned the ball over five times when counting the empty possessions from the missed field goals.

Colorado fielded punts inside the five yard line, dropped kickoffs and subsequently, were tackled inside the 20 yard line, kicked low line drive punts, missed field goals and of course, gave up the touchdown on a punt return.

The very next possession with 13:35 left after the second missed field goal, Nebraska had their only impressive offensive drive of the game, a 13 play, 80 yard drive for the 14 point lead. The Huskers only had to convert one third down on the drive while RB Rex Burkhead carried the ball 9 of the 13 plays. Burkhead ended up scoring, putting Nebraska up 28 - 14.

The Buffs were able to get the ball back and drive down to the Nebraska 15 yard line with about five minutes left but, once again, the team shot themselves in the foot. This drive is a microcosm of the inadequacies this team displays on a weekly basis:

Play 1 - quick zero yard pass to Simas in bounds while the Buffs are down 14 points. You have to go up field there considering your timeout situation and only five minutes on the clock. At least a play out of bounds. Before that play, the Buffs took their second timeout of the second half, leaving them with only one. The play call of a small flip pass to Simas after the timeout is mind boggling.
Play 2 - incomplete pass. Now 3rd and 10 from the 15 yard line
Play 3 - delay of game, five yard penalty. Now 3rd and 15 from the 20 yard line.
Play 4 - false start, five yard penalty. Now 3rd and 20 from the 25 yard line.
Play 5 - pass incomplete. Now 4th and 20 from the 25 yard line
Play 6 - timeout, their second of the drive without gaining a yard since having the ball 1st & 10 and last timeout of the half.
Play 7 - interception

The Buffs had 7 penalties in total. They continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the nation.

Just like the defensive drive before it, this offensive drive and the two missed field goals in the second half, the Buffs continually fail to convert and make big plays when the game is within reach. The people in charge at the University of Colorado might think and interpret this as being a very competitive outing, as their press release stated yesterday, but I believe it to be a dangerous trend that we have seen all year against a very manageable out of conference and Big 12 North schedule.

I wish we could have pulled this out for the seniors. We are certainly going to miss players like Cha'pelle Brown, Marcus Burton, Benjamin Burney, Riar Geer, Jake Behrens, Shaun Mohler, Patrick Devenny, Kevin Moyd, Jeff Smart, etc. Thanks for sticking through this mess, it probably would have been easy to quit. Best of luck in the future. I wish it would have turned out better for you in your last season.

Sunday Buff Bites - 13 Days Until This Nightmare Is Over...Hopefully

irish1611 — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:36:53 -0000

Woelk: Decision on Hawkins` future must come soon - Buffzone

It means that very soon, athletic director Mike Bohn and chancellor Phil DiStefano must come to a decision. Clearly, the program is nowhere close to where Bohn envisioned it being when he hired Hawkins. When Bohn managed to land one of the nation`s hottest young coaching prospects in December of 2005, he certainly never thought he`d be contemplating another change just four years later. Now such a decision is a distinct possibility. Today, I`m still not ready to say a change would be in the best interest of the program and the university. But, whatever decision is reached, it must be reached soon. After Saturday`s effort at Iowa State, waiting for the outcome of the last two games makes absolutely no sense. Bohn and DiStefano must sit down as soon as possible and examine the situation from every angle. Economics. Possible fallout from all sides. Recruiting. Next year`s schedule. Returning players. Then make a decision and move on. Let Hawkins know whether he`ll be here next year or not. If he`s going to be the head coach, make it known so he can begin to reassure recruits, contemplate staff changes and move on with business. If not, give him and his staff the opportunity to assess their futures. But whatever the decision, make it soon. Waiting will only increase the questions hanging over the program while doing nothing in terms of moving forward. Simply, a quick resolution is the only sensible solution.

Bowl ineligibility befalls Buffs - The Denver Post

Hawkins' problem is, in his fourth year, his team is going in the opposite direction of two rebuilding programs that beat him with first-year coaches. Paul Rhoads' Cyclones (6-5, 3-4) joined Kansas State in downing the Buffs at home. This time the nearly packed house of 43,208 stormed the field, celebrating bowl eligibility a year after going 2-10. Once again, offensive ineptitude on the road crippled Colorado. CU scored one touchdown against the second- worst defense in the league. That doubled its number of TDs in the past 10 quarters on the road to two.

CU Buffs bowl hopes end in another road wreck - Boulder Daily Camera

The signs are all there and they`re pointing toward a coaching change at Colorado. The football team isn`t playing well when it desperately needs to. Athletic director Mike Bohn, who just three months ago robustly defended head coach Dan Hawkins, turned away requests for comment after another loss Saturday.

Buffs lose 17-10 at Iowa State - The Denver Post

Lacking a killer instinct, Colorado (3-7, 2-4 Big 12) produced just three points — total — out of four possession inside the ISU 10-yard line, committed costly, careless penalties and set up Iowa State's third-quarter touchdown with a turnover. "We went from being one of the better teams in the red zone in the country to one of the worst," Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said.

Same old story for Buffs - The Longmont Times-Call

Hawkins, repeating another familiar line, said it just came down to a couple of plays. "Particularly with this group of guys, when you have a big play against you, there’s a huge momentum thing going on," Hawkins said. "We just have to be able to counter that a little bit better."

CU vs. Iowa State Game Quotes
Momentum thing, rhythm thing, confidence thing...blah, blah, blah, blah

On poor passing game
"On the first drive we had a couple of drops. You talk about that rhythm thing and that confidence thing and that momentum thing. A couple of drops on the first drive took us out of rhythm."

The Longmont Times-Call

From CU offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau: "The frustrating part is the turnovers and the penalties. We’re not getting outschemed. We know what they’re doing. If we eliminate turnovers and penalties, this is a completely different ball club." CU committed 11 penalties and three turnovers Saturday. CU was also 2-for-14 on third down conversions.

Bruising running game paves way for OSU - Big 12 Blog - ESPN
The Colorado Buffaloes next opponent, Oklahoma State, had a good win last night against Texas Tech but lost their starting quarterback in the process. Zac Robinson was hit hard late in the game and supposedly has a concussion.

One negative coming out of the game was an apparent concussion sustained by OSU quarterback Zac Robinson on a devastating hit by Tech cornerback Jamar Wall. With the Cowboys playing Thursday night against Colorado, it might be asking a lot for Robinson to return to action that soon. And Robinson was the key before his injury. He piled up a team-high 97 yards. Keith Toston added 78 and Kendall Hunter had his most impressive performance since returning from his foot injury with 70 tough yards on 17 carries.

Two key fumbles put Stewart in tough situation - The Denver Post

Stewart lost two fumbles, both coming at crucial times in the second half. His first turnover, on the Colorado 33-yard line, occurred early in the third quarter. That set up Iowa State's final touchdown and, ultimately, the Cyclones' winning score. The second turnover came at the end of a 7-yard run to the ISU 8 on a hit by safety David Sims, ending a CU threat early in the fourth quarter.

Givens' strange season takes another turn - The Longmont Times-Call

The strange season Bryce Givens is enduring in his redshirt freshman year at Colorado took another twist during Saturday’s 17-10 loss at Iowa State. Givens, making his first start Saturday since the Big 12 opener at Texas, was called for a personal foul during the third quarter for hitting an Iowa State pass rusher in the face as quarterback Tyler Hansen scrambled to the Cyclones’ 2 on first-and-goal. After Givens turned and said something to referee Tom Walker, Walker picked his flag up off the ground and tossed it high into the air to call a penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct. The penalties gave CU a first-and-goal at the 39. The drive ended when kicker Aric Goodman missed from 42 yards. Coaches pulled Givens from the game and he did not return. Ryan Dannewitz took his place at right tackle.

ISU Football: Cyclones beat Colorado, become bowl eligible - The Des Moines Register

They reached bowl eligibility for the first time since 2005 after a 17-10 win against Colorado before a boisterous 43,208 who held breaths as the Buffaloes tossed the ball around backwards on the final play before finally ending 69 yards from the end zone.

Go Cyclones - ISU bowl eligible after Colorado win

Iowa State beats Colorado 17-10 and Cyclones become bowl eligible - KansasCity.com

For some programs, reaching bowl eligibility is little more than a footnote. It’s a much bigger deal for Iowa State. Picked to finish last in the Big 12 North, the Cyclones can at least dream of their first bowl bid since 2005 after beating Colorado 17-10 on Saturday for their sixth win.

CU players say they`ll play for pride - Boulder Daily Camera

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Browse more photos »

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Monday’s Big 12 Conference Thoughts

ccmachine — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

The Big 12 North is completely upside down with Kansas State, Iowa State and Colorado in front of Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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A few things became clearly evident to me Saturday in regards to the Big 12 Conference and football. First, the North is wide open and unless it's Kansas State and A&M in the championship game the south has a huge advantage once again. The first five teams in the North Division are only separated by 1.5 games and the 6^th place team is only two games out.

Second, the North has been turned upside down and is really bad. When the Big 12 teams broke their camps at the end of August who would have thought that Kansas State would be on top of the North with Oklahoma sitting third in the South when these two teams hook it up at the end of October? The K-State resurgence has been fun to watch this year but its due in part of a very weak North Division. Missouri has no defense (not much of an offense either), Nebraska has no offense and Kansas is giving the ball away almost more frequently than they are scoring points.

Third, the Big 12 as a whole is down this year. Last year was a banner year for the conference with OU, Texas Tech and Texas all carrying the banner for the conferen. This year not so much! Oklahoma is injured, Texas isn't as good as last year, Texas Tech is back to just being Texas Tech and the conference's second best team at this point (Oklahoma State) has a home loss to a non-conference, non BCS school opponent. Basically our conference has been rendered to a Texas team that's watered down from the season before and then the other guys.

Kansas State 20 - Colorado 6

How does Colorado follow up last week's upset over Kansas? By dropping an egg at Kansas State! The Buffaloes capped a 13 play, 71 yard drive with a Rodney Stewart touchdown run from three yards out to take a 6-3 first quarter lead. Then kicker Aric Goodman missed the extra point and the Colorado offense disappeared. Kansas State forced four turnovers, sacked Tyler Hansen four times and held the Buffs to just 1.9 yards per rush on 31 carries.

The Colorado Buffaloes failed on the road again. They did exactly what they couldn't do. The Buffs turned the ball over four times, played horribly on special teams, flip flopped quarterbacks with no benefit and were frankly out coached by Bill Snyder. Once again the Colorado Buffaloes failed in a chance to excel and take charge of the Big 12 North. Kansas State is not a great football team but they know who they are. They don't turn the ball over, they run the ball and they capitalize on other team's mistakes, not make them. - The Ralphie Report

The loss put the Wildcats one game ahead of Iowa State and pushed Colorado into third place in the conference just ahead of Kansas and Nebraska. Yes, you read that last sentence correctly.

Oklahoma State 34 - Baylor 6

Baylor has officially been reduced to the "What if?" phase of the season. The Bears are 1-3 since losing Robert Griffin and have scored a total of 24 points in their 3 conference games. If you thought that Oklahoma's four-game losing streak against ranked opponents was bad, Baylor has now lost 20 consecutive games to ranked opponents.

"Rhythm, confidence and momentum have to be created and it is hard to create it when your not making productive yards every snap," Baylor coach Art Briles

Meanwhile Oklahoma State's win allows the Pokes to keep pace with Texas setting up a showdown in Stillwater Saturday night to decide who takes over first place in the South and who potentially could be sitting next to Oklahoma a game back. The Cowboys are averaging 37 points per game and doing just fine without standout wide receiver Dez Bryant and running back Kendall Hunter. However, Saturday night will mark the first time this season that they play a team that actually has a defense.

Iowa State 9 - Nebraska 7

Seriously Nebraska? Seriously! Iowa State hasn't won a conference game on the road in three years and they haven't won at Nebraska since 1977. This was the worst performance by two teams in a conference game quite possibly since the inception of the Big 12. Iowa State won on just 239 total offensive yards while committing 8 penalties for 72 yards. By the way, Iowa State was also playing with a backup quarterback and running back.

What was that?

0 giveaways, 8 takeaways, is the story of the game. The game wasn't pretty offensively, but ISU did what they had to do. It would've been easy for this team to mail it in, but they came ready to play, and if you play hard you can win. It's a team sport, and ISU showed that if you have guts and play as a team, you win games. That's football. - Clone Chronicles

Eight turnovers! Nebraska turned the ball over eight times. That more turnovers than points! You almost have to try to do that, don't you? After opening conference play with a come from behind win over Missouri, Nebraska's season his suddenly crumbling apart after back-to-back home losses to Texas Tech and...gulp...Iowa State.

Oklahoma 35 - Kansas 7

One of the biggest things that stood out to me in this game was that OU only committed 5 penalties. You know that it's been a long season when you celebrate five penalties or less but that's just the way it is. The other thing is that OU passed the ball 38 times and didn't give up a sack. This allowed Landry Jones time to complete nearly 70% of his passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns. He did throw an interception but it really shouldn't be credited to him because he put the ball in a place where it should have been caught by a Sooner receiver. Darn you Cameron Kenny!

At first you might think that the sky is falling for the Kansas Jayhawks but then you remember that they play in the North where all things are possible. You really don't need a lot of defense to play in the North (which is really good for Kansas) you just need an offense that can keep pace with the opponents and match them score for score. Of course not having any defense helps make that a reality.

Texas A&M 52 - Texas Tech 30

Mike Leach decided to give Taylor Potts another chance to run the offense and it didn't quite last three full quarters before he was pulled. Potts turned the ball over three times and the Texas A&M scored off two of them. Tech turned the ball over a total of five times and surrendered 559 yards of offense and 52 points to A&M.

I think many people expected A&M to get blown off the field Saturday. I hoped our team would show up and play hard. I figured if they gave a good effort, we'd get a decent game and have a shot at upsetting Tech in Lubbock. After playing well against them last season in College Station and leading them at halftime, with a less-talented team than what we field this season, I figured we'd have a shot. The alternative was that we would show up, sleepwalk through a blowout, and lose in embarrassing fashion. I think many would admit that one of these two alternatives was the expectation on Saturday. I don't think any of us predicted a blowout win by A&M over Tech. - I Am The 12^th Man

Texas A&M scored 31 unanswered points on Tech during the second and third quarters which turned a 14-7 deficit into a 38-14 rout in progress. The running back duo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael was unstoppable. Gray had 25 carries for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns and Michael carried the ball 22 times for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's a 5.2 and 5.5 yard average respectfully plus the fact that Gray also had 4 receptions for 41 yards and another score. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Big 12 offensive player of the week.

Texas 41 - Missouri 7

What do you get when a team with a mediocre offense and a great defense plays a team with a poor offense and virtually no defense? You get a 41-7 Texas rout and Blane Gabbert's 84 total passing yards. Missouri was only able to muster 173 total yards of offense and 81 of those yards came on one drive. The Tigers had three drives that tallied negative yards and two of their final three drives ended in turnovers.

"It's a pivotal point of the season, obviously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out," Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said. "If we don't start playing better, you're never going to win a game."

Texas had a brilliant game plan for a hobbled quarterback that's been hobbled and shell shocked the past few weeks. Taking advantage of the speed of their secondary and Missouri's inability to block the Longhorns blitzed from the corners early and often. The Tigers were the perfect remedy for the slow starts by the Texas offense the last month as Colt McCoy and company railed out six first half touchdowns against a Missouri defense that's given up an average of 34 points per points per game since conference play began. I guess they'll be thinking that McCoy deserves a Heisman of something now because of that performance.

Hits & Myths: CU vs KU - Buffs Win! Lookout, Big XII North!

Tom4Buffs — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:10:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado tailback Rodney Stewart (5) rushes for the go-ahead touchdown past Kansas cornerback D.J. Beshears in the fourth quarter of Colorado's 34-20 victory in an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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CU beats Kansas! Yes, this time it's not a dream or a half-time score. Final Score: Colorado 34, #15 Kansas 30.

There were signs last week that things finally might be changing for the better. Reduce the mistakes, hold the line on defense, and allow the change at QB to create a fresh start on offense, & maybe that first half at Texas could be reproduced against Kansas. After almost reproducing too much of the Texas game, the Buffs got a score near the end that the Jayhawks couldn't reproduce, and CU held on to win. Colorado's 34-30 victory over previously-unbeaten Kansas before a near-capacity crowd at Folsom Field came just in time to give team and fans alike hope for a successful season.

Whew! The Reesing curse is over, along with Colorado's 3-game losing streak to Kansas. How ironic was it to hear KU Coach Mangino say after the game, "It’s unfortunate they picked this week to take his redshirt off." Hansen had a terrific if not error-free starting debut, and now he travels to Manhattan to see if he can continue his mastery over teams from the state of Kansas.

THE HITS

1. Tyler Hansen - Tyler Hansen's first 2009 start as quarterback for the Colorado Buffaloes didn't produce gaudy statistics: 14 of 25 for 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception, 34 net yards rushing, 1 fumble. In fact, it was Rodney Stewart, not Hansen, who ended up co-winner of the Big XII Offensive Player of the Week. Anyone who watched the game, however, would tell you that the stats don't tell half the story, and that Hansen was every bit as valuable as Stewart in CU's 34-point effort. Hansen's actual rushing total, before subtracting sack yards(a record-keeping practice by the NCAA that makes as much sense as would subtracting penalty yardage from offensive totals), was 11 rushes for 64 yards, a 5.8 yard-per-carry average. When he passed, he threw more than screens and 5-yard passes. Half of his passes went for 11 or more yards, pushing his average to 12.5 yards per pass. But it was more when he ran or completed a pass that drove a dagger into the hearts of KU's defensive players and coaches. Almost half of his runs were for first downs or touchdown(3 of them for 11 or more yards), and 9 of his 14 completions were for 1st downs(& a 10th for a TD), often after scooting impossibly away from would-be tacklers. What's more, more than half of the first downs he accounted for came on 3rd down. It was a clutch performance, marred by a couple of turnovers, that came down to an end-of-the-game duel with a quarterback in Todd Reesing who had started for parts of four years. The redshirt sophomore outduelled the experienced senior, as Hansen came through to lead a winning touchdown drive that Reesing couldn't match.

2. The Hansen Effect - As good as Hansen himself was, he directly accounted for only two touchdowns, one passing and one rushing. 14 points wasn't enough to win the game last week against Texas, nor would it have been this week against Kansas. However, a dual-threat quarterback with a strong arm catalyzes the whole team, changing not only the way opposing players react on defense but the way teammates respond on offense. On defense, opponents have to play against the run as well as the pass every time the QB drops back. Would-be sackers have to contain as well as attack. Pass defenders have to stay on mid- or long-range routes longer. On offense, linemen can take advantage of the run/pass uncertainty, & backs and receivers can find more creases and space. Receivers and linemen find themselves more often in position to do down field blocking, and they begin to learn how important that is in turning short gains into explosion plays. The more they do it, the better they become. That opens up the running plays, which open up the passing plays, and soon you have a more balanced, high-scoring offense that only has to pass 25 times to complement a 177-yard rushing attack. The offense's ability to take advantage of turnovers and good field position makes the defense and special teams feel like their efforts are worthwhile, and they play better. And Hansen's success makes the coaches feel like they can use more of their playbook to adapt to different teams and adjust to different in-game scenarios. That's known as (formerly) the McCoy Effect in Texas, (almost formerly) the Tebow Effect in Florida, (formerly?) the Reesing Effect in Kansas, and now the Hansen Effect in Colorado. Let's hope the Hansen Effect becomes a Special Effect for the Buffs.

3. Aric Goodman - The punt teams did not allow any turnovers or touchdowns this week, and Jason Espinoza remained steady in cleanly fielding every punt. The kickoff return team continued to do an excellent job, as Darrell Scott and Scotty McKnight combined for 26.3 yards per return. It was Aric Goodman, however, who was the real star on special teams. Goodman gave an outstanding and courageous performance, battling an abdominal injury while keeping his PATs perfect on the season, converting both field goals, one of which was his first FG in the 40-49 yard range, and booting every one of his seven kickoffs into(or through) the end zone, only two of which were returned. His field-goal conversions alone proved to be the difference in the game. Goodman was deservedly recognized by the College Football Performance Awards as the National Kickoff Specialist of the Week.

4. Everybody else - There are too many "hits" to list, but suffice it to say that it was a team effort, from Rodney Stewart's 6th 100-yard game to Marquez Herrod's thrashing 3-sack attack to Riar Geer's clutch catches and nose for the end zone to excellent prep and game-day calls by coaches to blocking wide receivers to true freshman defensive linemen to senior leaders to leap-frogging quarterbacks to sophomores seemingly everywhere to the best student section in college football to faithful alumni who nearly filled Folsom to a lopsided loss by the Huskers to a beautiful autumn night in Boulder. And, of course, to that "W" in the record.

THE MYTHS

1. The CU Running Game is Back - The 177 yards of rushing offense(again, not counting the sack-loss yardage) was a vast improvement over the 62 yards of rushing in the Texas game. Nevertheless, the magic number for a true smash mouth rushing attack is 200 yards in a game, and when you take away Hansen's 64 yards, the remaining 113 yards is far short of smash mouth. Yes, Hansen already came close to that in the Kansas game, but until those yards come on designed running plays for Hansen, I wont count Hansen as the second running back, and I wont believe the CU running game is back. Two things need to happen to get to that number and prove that the CU running game is truly back: a 2nd running back needs to get 75+ yards on a day when the 1st gets 100+ yards, a running back needs to break open a long touchdown run, and these need to happen in at least two games. Until then, the Buffs will continue to get by with their rushing attack. I believe it will be back very soon.

2. The Special Teams is Special - Aric Goodman was special on Saturday, and he already has two Kickoff Specialist of the Week awards this year. He has usually been special this year, yet he still needs to be a little more consistent, particularly in kicking field goals. The rest of the special teams still have a lot of room for improvement. Matt DiLallo started out strong but has reverted back to mid-30-yard-average punt games, which caused CU significant field position disadvantages in the last game. And the kickoff return team has been good, but they have the potential to be great. Once or twice this year, CU will need Scott or Lockridge to break a return for six. They've been close, but close rarely counts in football.

3. There are too many distractions in the Denver area to get good fan support for CU Football - We've all heard this line trotted out for many years to explain why CU doesn't sell out its football games. There are the Broncos, the Rockies, the Avalanche, the Nuggets, the Rapids, the Mammoth, the Pioneers, the Flatirons, Red Rocks Amphitheater, the National Parks & Forests, the 14ers, fishing, hiking, hunting, biking, running, golfing, skiing, snowboarding, driving, walking, drinking, smoking, toking, napping, etc. Ok, so there is a lot to see and do in Boulder/Denver/Colorado. If that's keeping people from coming to games, then explain how we ended up with 51,146 people coming to watch a 1-4 team play football on a beautiful autumn Saturday with the temperature at 68 degrees at kickoff during a down economy. I'll tell you why. There are a lot of people now to go around for all of those activities, and a lot of them are CU grads or know CU grads and/or have otherwise had a chance to see a game at Folsom Field in person or on TV. They have seen the beauty of the CU campus and they know that there is nothing quite like walking through a college campus and into a stadium where you can watch a live American Bison run around a football field, see the Colorado Buffaloes play the great game of football with some of the best teams and players in the country, look up to catch a view of the Flatirons and the Rocky Mountains, and look down to see golden-yellow throngs of students pouring onto the field after their beloved Buffs have upset a Top Twenty team. I'll take that over a night in Austin or Lincoln, in Invesco Field or Coors Field, Pepsi Center or Dick's Sporting Goods Park any day.

THE FIXES

1. Stop the opponent's best receivers - While the defense is turning into a strength of the team, they are still giving up too many explosion plays, and usually to receivers. While you can never completely shut down a great receiver, you need to box them in. Make contact at the line of scrimmage. Safeties need to get into double coverage more consistently when covering the likes of Shipley and Briscoe. If you can't get to the ball, make them pay by making the hard tackle, not just the hard hit. And when you do get your hands on the ball, act like it's yours and catch it. If the QB favors a receiver on a certain side, get hands and bodies in front of the QB on that side and blitz them to death from the other(blind) side. Make the quarterback and their favorite targets as uncomfortable as possible.

2. Turn the running backs into (better) receivers - Get the running backs plenty of reps catching the ball, so Scott stays good and the rest of them get better. Stewart and Lockridge each had golden opportunities for long gains slip through their fingers on Saturday. Use Scott more as a receiver in the slot or out of the backfield, as he has the best hands of the group. And please, please, please get Lockridge into open space - he has the next best set of hands and the fastest set of wheels.

3. Use the clock and the snap count better - There was a dramatic drop in penalties from 20 to 8, but that's still a lot. Most of them come from false starts and sideline-related issues like delays of game and substitution penalties. These are irritating because they're so preventable. (Please get Riar some help with the snap count.) Having a new quarterback in there probably accounts for some of it. Take this opportunity to work on the snap count more than usual, and while you're at it, practice quick snaps and off-cadence counts to draw opponents offsides. Believe it or not, really working on tricking the other side will prevent your own line(offense AND defense, B.J.) from being drawn off. And figure out a system or set of sideline personnel that eliminates the delays in getting plays and players in to the huddle. Maybe Cody has some ideas after suffering through it for the better part of three years.

4. Learn from past games - The young Buffs now know that if they can play with the number two team in the country and do it in Austin, they can play with anybody anywhere. So a Little Apple shouldn't intimidate them. They also need to learn that when they have a team down, they can never relax, never relent, just keep taking the ball away and keep driving into the endzone. They need to know that everybody plays a role and that everyone needs to be ready, because someone always needs to step up. The Buffs should know now that they can hang with anybody in the Big XII, but also that anybody can hang with them. The difference is maximum effort on every play and smart football. They need to constantly attack, always looking for somebody to block, for a way to get the ball, for a way to get another yard, for a way to turn a run, a catch, a return, a fumble or an interception into a touchdown. And if they can beat a #15 team from Kansas, they ought to be able to beat an unranked purple team from Kansas. GO BUFFS!!! BEAT THE WILDCATS!!!

Tuesday Buff Bites - Texas Thinks Colorado's Running Game Will Test Them (Me Laughing)

irish1611 — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 03:22:46 -0000

Colorado should provide tuneup for UT run defense | College Sports | Star-Telegram
Apparently Mack Brown thinks the Colorado running game will give the Longhorns their first real test of the season. Well, Mack, if you plan on scoring any points in the first quarter, you won't see much of a running game the rest of the game because the Colorado coaches like to throw the ball 50+ times with Cody Hawkins instead of run the ball, even when they are not that far behind (see Colorado State - 40 attempts and West Virginia - 54 attempts). Yes, Cody Hawkins has averaged 46.5 attempts per game, sixth in the college football. If you would have told me that stat before the beginning of the season, I would have said the Buffs would be 0 - 4. Luckily, we had Wyoming on our schedule. With a 31.5 point spread, I am sorry Mack, but this week won't be your tune up:

Although the Colorado ground game lacks statistical success this season, Texas coaches and players view the Buffaloes as a viable litmus test for the Longhorns’ largely untested run defense. Colorado (1-3, 0-0 in Big 12) builds its offense around a power running game, with three backs — Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott and Demetrius Sumler — sharing the load. No. 2 Texas (4-0, 1-0) ranks second nationally in rushing defense, allowing 47.3 yards per game, but has posted those numbers against teams that run pass-oriented, spread offenses.

CU’s Iltis, Wright ready for Texas | All Things Colorado Sports

Hawkins said reserve wide receiver Anthony Wright (ankle sprain) and starting center Mike Iltis (concussion) will be available for Saturday’s game at No. 2 Texas.

‘Speedy’ recovery - The Longmont Times-Call

Texas leads the Big 12 with 49.5 points a game and is second in yards with 521.2 per. CU is last in scoring defense, allowing 28 points per, and yards allowed, 408.8. The Buffs have produced two plays of 40 yards or more while allowing 11. In its three losses, CU has allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more. CU has allowed 14 touchdowns from scrimmage from distances that average 28 yards.

Barking Carnival — Blog — Mack Brown compliments Cody Hawkins. I think.

Yes, we actually had Cody here at our camp. He came down and spent time with us. I think Major was coaching him at that time when he was a graduate assistant. Cody is a lot like Colt. He is tough, he’s smart, he makes good decisions, and you’re not going to rattle him. Every time he gets knocked down, he jumps up before they get off the field and he is a very good football player. They are throwing the ball more this year than they did last year, and he’s throwing it at a very high rate.

Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Sports - Big 12: Outlook is bleak for North trio

Colorado is in the deepest trouble of all, with the Dan Hawkins hire looking more like a mistake every day. The Buffaloes are carrying millions in athletic debt, and seem to have lost the ace-in-the-hole boosters who can change things quickly. But don't tell me CU can't afford to buy out Hawkins if he posts a fourth straight losing season. CU can't afford not to make a change. If you struggle to recruit and the fan base has lost hope, it takes two years to recover for every year the wrong hire is kept in place.

Hawk: Cody’s interceptions ‘alarming’ | All Things Colorado Sports

"The interceptions, to me, are obviously the most alarming part," Dan Hawkins said. "They’ve all been sort of different, in different cases. His first year, there was a decent amount that came off batted balls, like our guys dropping ‘em. "I do think he’s been pounded a little bit, so I think he has a tendency to get it out (too quickly). This year, I do think some of it has to do with a couple of things: 1) Is him trying to force the issue a little bit. I think also, most of the time when he throws it to Scotty (McKnight), he doesn’t throw a pick. (Cody) has a pretty good idea of where Scotty is going to be and what he’s going to do. That’s part of the whole mixture in there."

Hawkins Quotes From Tuesday Press Luncheon - CUBuffs.com

Brooks: Riddle Retains Confidence In Goodman - CUBuffs.com
Although weekly competition at all positions is standard procedure at Colorado, chances appear good that Aric Goodman will be the Buffaloes' placekicker on Saturday when they visit No. 2 Texas in their Big 12 Conference opener.

LeGarrette Blount, Tate Forcier, Clemson Tigers, LSU Tigers and the art of the apology - ESPN

Falling back: Darrell Scott (27), Colorado. If the hugely touted recruit's freshman season was a disappointment (448 yards from scrimmage in 11 games), his sophomore season has been closer to a disappearance (106 yards from scrimmage in three games).

Buffs' Crawford a bigger big man - Boulder Daily Camera
CU junior added 18 lbs. of muscle in offseason.

Mack Brown Monday Press Conference

CU football primer: the Texas Longhorns - The Denver Post

Colorado-Texas Preview - Oct. 6, 2009 - NCAA Football - CBSSports.com Live GameCenter

Texas hasn't budged in the Top 25 since the preseason poll was released. If the Longhorns can keep it that way through the rest of the regular season, they would have a good chance of playing for the national championship.

Texas' Lamarr Houston morphs into team leader | Dallas Morning News

Neither defensive tackle nor a vocal leadership role came naturally for Lamarr Houston. Now Houston has progressed well enough that he has turned into this season's version of Roy Miller, easing a major Texas concern. Going into Saturday's game with Colorado, Houston is tied for the team lead in tackles-for-loss with five, while ranking second on the team in quarterback pressures (11) and fumbles recovered (two). "If he stays healthy and continues to play like he has the past couple of weeks, he'll make a lot of money," coach Mack Brown said bluntly. "He'll be in the NFL and be a great player."

As Colorado game approaches, UT on guard against overconfidence

If you're a Longhorns player, it's human nature to glance past Saturday's game against Colorado, given what comes next. Then next, and next, all on the road. The one-victory Buffaloes, whom oddsmakers have established as 311/2-point underdogs, should be the easiest team Texas will face until a Nov. 7 home date against Central Florida.

A Statistical Look: Colorado Buffaloes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

irish1611 — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Back by popular demand, here is a statistical look at the upcoming game against West Virginia. Not pretty!

Advantage

	National	Conf	Actual	Category	Actual	Conf	National
	Rank	Rank	Actual	Category	Actual	Rank	Rank
West Virginia	111	11	91.67	Rushing Offense	192.33	2	34
West Virginia	37	8	251	Passing Offense	293	2	15
West Virginia	103	12	105.75	Passing Efficiency	148.33	4	33
West Virginia	84	12	342.67	Total Offense	485.33	1	10
West Virginia	69	10	26.33	Scoring Offense	32.67	4	35
West Virginia	103	12	183	Rushing Defense	83.67	3	14
Colorado	77	9	227	Pass Defense	228.33	5	81
West Virginia	100	12	144.32	Pass Efficiency Defense	119.2	4	56
West Virginia	101	12	410	Total Defense	312	4	35
Colorado	77	12	25.67	Scoring Defense	27	7	83
Colorado	38	7	37.4	Net Punting	36.38	6	51
West Virginia	97	12	4.29	Punt Returns	9.43	3	60
Colorado	35	5	24.87	Kickoff Returns	22.2	5	54
Colorado	89	12	-0.67	Turnover Margin	-2.33	8	116
West Virginia	40	8	2.33	Sacks	3	3	12
West Virginia	T-79	10	5	Tackles For Loss	7	4	25
West Virginia	96	12	2.67	Sacks Allowed	1	3	24

Colorado under Dan Hawkins is 2 - 2 after a bye. West Virginia is 5 - 2 after a bye since 2006. Colorado is 1 - 5 on road at night since Hawkins arrival while West Virginia is 5 - 2 at home at night since 2006. West Virginia's overall home record since 2006 is 18 - 3.

West Virginia, as expected, has the advantage on paper. A few glimmers of hope are attached to the turnover margin and scoring defense. Aided by the Wyoming shut out last week, Colorado's scoring defense improved drastically from a few weeks ago. West Virginia's defense has given up 27 points a game - 20 to Liberty, 20 to Eastern Carolina and 41 to Auburn. This defense has been scored on this year.

The final piece of hope just looking at the stats is the turnover margin. Last week, West Virginia turned the ball over six times to an opportunistic Auburn team. If the Buffs want to win their first road game in two years and the third total since Dan Hawkins has been head coach, Colorado's defense needs to play aggressive and force turnovers. West Virginia has protected Jarrett Brown well, only giving up one sack on average a game. That being said, Colorado will have to walk the fine line of committing extra players for a pass rush while avoiding the big play from RB Noel Devine and Brown. If Colorado's defense contains the West Virginia offense tomorrow, it will be because the secondary. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins needs to feel confident that he can allow the linebackers to roam around the line of scrimmage to stop Devine and pressure Brown. That means leaving the safeties and corners on an island, keeping big plays to a minimum. This would be a great time to see Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Ben Burney, Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins to make big plays, force a few turnovers and be consistent.

Any strong play from the defensive line is a bonus but I expect West Virginia to try and get them on skates early with a heavy dose of Devine. It will be key for the defensive line fill the gaps and play strong assignment football. A big part of being successful against the zone-read is to occupy your gaps and fill areas so the linebackers can make plays at the point of attack. If the defensive line plays out of position tomorrow it could be a very long day.

If the defense can get Brown and the West Virginia offense off the field the first few series and all the Buffs' running game to get in a rhythm, who knows what can happen. Colorado needs to play a perfect game on the road, get turnovers and find a way to have more big plays than West Virginia.

Players stats after the jump. Check back later for more discussion on the offense and the keys to the game.

Conf	National	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	National	Conf
Rank	Rank	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	Rank	Rank
		85.5	Rodney Stewart	Rushing	Noel Devine	106.67	16	2
12		105.74	Cody Hawkins	Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jarrett Brown	151.16	28	4
7	T-49	229.33	Cody Hawkins	Total Offense	Jarrett Brown	335.33	6	1
5	T-22	6.67	Scotty McKnight	Receptions Per Game	Jock Sanders	9.67	3	1
9	48	75.67	Scotty McKnight	Receiving Yards Per Game	Jock Sanders	103	T-16	3
T-5	T-72	0.33	Benjamin Burney	Interceptions	Robert Sands	0.33	T-72	T-6
12	71	4.29	Jason Espinoza	Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jock Sanders	14.75	22	1
		26.3	Darrell Scott	Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Mark Rodgers	26.6	32	3
21		6.33	Aric Goodman	Scoring	Noel Devine	10	T-21	3
23		76.33	Scotty McKnight	All-Purpose Runners	Noel Devine	142	32	2
T-10	T-58	0.67	B.J. Beatty	Sacks	Julian Miller	0.83	T-27	4
T-7	T-61	8.67	Jeff Smart	Tackles	Jt Thomas	7.33		6
		6.33	Cha'pelle Brown		Brandon Hogan	6.67		10
		6	Jimmy Smith		Pat Lazear	5		T-25
T-16		1	B.J. Beatty	Tackles For Loss	Jt Thomas	1.5	T-27	3
					Julian Miller	1.33	T-52	5
					Pat Lazear	1.17	T-73	8

Tuesday Buff Bites - OT Bryce Givens, OG Max Tuioti-Mariner Return to Practice

irish1611 — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:36:19 -0000

The Buffzone Blog - Bryce Givens and Max Tuioti-Ma…

Bryce Givens and Max Tuioti-Mariner returned to practice with the Buffs today. No word on when either will return to the lineup on game day.

Great news to have both come back this week. Coach Hawkins said "we will see" when asked if Givens will play this week. Givens left last week before the Wyoming game to deal with some personal issues. Those issues were not made public. Tuioti-Mariner is returning from his third torn ACL in as many years. Max started as a freshman last year before being knocked out early in the season with his second knee injury.

Full Game Highlights - Colorado Buffaloes vs Wyoming Cowboys
Pretty cool platform on CUBuffs.com to watch the full Wyoming game as well as highlights. The defense definitely made some good plays out there...hopefully they keep Ben Burney in at safety. I really like what he brought to the field.

Legacy Day Throwback Jerseys On Sale Now - CUBuffs.com
CU has made 100 of these available to the public for purchase at the price of $600. The price covers the cost of the uniforms to the University.

Bzdelik scores CU Buff prospect thanks to Hawkins - Boulder Daily Camera

Jeff Bzdelik compared freshman guard Alec Burks -- a skinny, 6-foot-6 swish machine -- to the program`s all-time leading scorer during a teleconference with reporters this summer. The arrival of Missouri`s reigning high school player of the year to Boulder should, if nothing else, provide a spark to a CU team that finished last in the Big 12 in scoring the past two seasons running Bzdelik`s system. Believe it or not, Dan Hawkins and Aric Goodman deserve credit for an assist on this one. Burks committed to CU a year ago after the Buffs` nationally televised overtime victory over West Virginia at Folsom Field. The Buffs next face West Virginia on Oct. 1. "I came on my visit and I just loved it here," said Burks, who also considered playing for Kansas State. "They had a football game on ESPN and we won and everybody rushed the field. I wanted to be a part of that experience, so I committed here."

Big 12 grades: Sooners' Tulsa demolition earns highest marks - Big 12 - ESPN

Colorado: A: A simple defensive plan led to a shutout for a Buffaloes defense that had been gashed for 54 points against Toledo and was allowing an average of 500 yards per game before their victory over Wyoming. The offense showed some growth, too, with the strong running of Rodney Stewart keying the victory.

The Longmont Times-Call - Booters Booming

Colorado’s Aric Goodman and Matt DiLallo are off to good starts in 2009. Goodman is 3-for-4 on field goals after going 5-for-14 in 2008. DiLallo is averaging 43 yards per punt, and his net average is 37.4. Those numbers are up from last year’s 40.5 and 34.

New stars about to shine across Big 12 - Boulder Daily Camera
Kyle Ringo has a nice preview of players that he think will turn into Big 12 stars soon enough.

Tuesday Buff Bites - Excitement is in the Air

irish1611 — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:27:20 -0000

Ringo: One last glance into crystal ball - Boulder Daily Camera
Kyle Ringo makes some bold predictions, many which I don't agree with. First, I will be shocked if Hansen is the starting quarterback, I think it is more like Hansen will be need at times this year. I see more of a 7 - 5 record and I hope he is right about Aric Goodman:

But after watching all those practices for two months and spending time around a team, some gut feelings and expectations develop. Here are a few of mine looking ahead to the Buffs` 12-game schedule: Quarterback Tyler Hansen will start the season opener for Colorado on Sunday night against Colorado State. It`s a gut feeling that could be totally wrong. The sophomore seems to have made some significant progress and probably has a bigger upside in the long run than Cody Hawkins. Hawkins will be needed at times this season and could be used in creative ways at other times. Darrell Scott won`t rush for 1,000 yards but will look much more like the player everyone expected him to be as a true freshman. Combine Scott with his other three backfield mates and the Buffs have a Rashaan Salaam-like 2,000-or so yards on the ground. The Buffs will finish 8-4 and will be in the mix for the Big 12 North Division title, along with Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. This could be another year where 4-4 or 5-3 in the conference wins it through tiebreakers. The Buffs go from minus-seven in turnover ratio last year to plus-seven or better this season. Veteran linebackers and defensive backs find a way to win a few close games. Place-kicker Aric Goodman rebounds from last year and a handful of missed field goals to have a pretty decent season culminating with a winning kick in either the Independence, Insight or Alamo bowl.

OSU ranks as Big 12's most productive offense - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin of ESPN ranks the Big 12 offenses with the Buffs surprisingly coming in at #8, ahead of Nebraska. I think the Buffs have some ability to improve on that ranking but for now, I guess we will take it considering CU finished dead last a year ago.

8. Colorado: Other than the fact that Dan Hawkins can’t decide on a starting quarterback, this unit might be a little underrated and ready to blossom. I really like their collection of running backs with Darrell Scott poised to fulfill his recruiting promise. Rodney Stewart and Demetrius Sumler add different running styles behind a nice line keyed by Ryan Miller, Nate Solder and Mike Iltis. The passing game might sputter early as Markques Simas misses the first two games and Andre Simmons plays his way into the rotation after missing most of fall practice. But it might be surprisingly productive by the time conference play rolls around.

Top players, coaches, team fans honored in Herbie Awards - ESPN
Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN has the Buffs as his sleeper choice to win the North. Only Pat Forde has shown any notice of CU this offseason from the world wide leader.

CU’s Clemons explains quotes regarding Michigan allegations : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado

Perhaps realizing that this may create a firestorm of media inquiries, Clemons put out this statement through the CU sports information office on Monday: "It was not my intention to come to the forefront of any situation dealing with the Michigan football program. I talked to a reporter (Schad) Sunday night, but did not answer any questions. Nor did I contribute any information. I don’t have any ties to the original allegations and my involvement in the matter doesn’t go any further than reading the (Detroit Free Press) article and confirming the allegations made by anonymous sources. "If I am asked to answer questions by any official party, be it the University of Michigan, the Big Ten or the NCAA, I will be honest about my schedule while at Michigan. But for right now, I am a Colorado Buffalo and no longer associated with Michigan or its football program. It’s time for me to concentrate on my classes and my teammates here at Colorado."

The Buffs Defense Looks to Focus on the Run This Year - The Longmont Times-Call

Bohn updates status of hoops practice facility : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado

Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn said today during the "Rocky Mountain Showdown" kickoff luncheon that he hopes ground will be broken on the planned practice facility for basketball and volleyball "before Christmas."

Max Tuioti-Mariner's to Return Possibly Next Week
Hawkins said "we’ll see" to a question about when guard Max Tuioti-Mariner will start practicing. It could be next week. Tuioti-Mariner is recovering from torn ACLs suffered last September and in February. He started two games last September as a true freshman.

More links after the jump...

Former Colorado WR Smith transfers to UCLA - San Jose Mercury News
Former Colorado Buffaloes WR Josh Smith has officially transferred to UCLA

California: Division I Football Preview - MaxPreps Articles
Buffs commit QB Nick Hirschman's Los Gatos team is ranked #5 in Northern California.

Linebacker Duren has turned his life around at MidAmerica Nazarene - Kansas City Star
Good story about former Buff linebacker Jake Duren and where he currently is after he was kicked off the team last year.

Brooks: Tufts Takes Different Run - CuBuffs.com
Former CU linebacker Sean Tufts is back on campus and about to see Ralphie from an altogether different angle.

Longevity ratings for Big 12 coaches - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin of ESPN thinks Dan Hawkins will have the second shortest coaching stay in the Big 12 of all active quarterbacks. He call is the longevity rating...the season is almost here, thankfully:

11. Dan Hawkins, Colorado: The pressure on him to win is incredible. And he didn't help himself with the 10-win claim, whether it was meant to help him set goals for the team or whatever. He does have a nice home schedule in conference play and an underrated set of players. But the Buffaloes' lack of big-play producers in the passing game could prove to be a season-long challenge -- particularly when matched against some of the other high-powered aerial attacks in the conference. It doesn't sound like a good recipe to spread a little more "Hawk Love" across the Flatirons.