SB Nation - Jason Espinoza

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

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Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Sunday Buff Bites - Dan Hawkins: "We'll See" In Regards to Who Starts At QB Next Week

irish1611 — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:03:32 -0000

Woelk: Stubborn streak still big problem for Buffaloes - Buffzone
Neill Woelk of the Boulder Daily Camera nailed it this morning. He wrote the paragraph of the year so far in my book:

The public perception is that the issue is about Dan Hawkins` son. It`s not.

Rather, it`s about Dan Hawkins` stubborn insistence on proving he is right, and doing so at the expense of his team. It`s a stubborn streak that is pervasive throughout the offense. It`s an insistence upon trying to force players into a system rather than adapting a system to the players. It`s an insistence upon not putting the best athletes on the field while apparently trying to make a point by using less-talented players -- and we`re not talking about only the quarterback.

That`s the problem that needs to be corrected. If Hawkins truly cares about the program -- and not simply about proving himself right -- he will do what all good leaders do.

He will adjust and make the right call.

The rest of the article is a must read as well, wondering how a Buff team with so much to gain can actually play the way they did yesterday and tries to rationalize what Cody Hawkins gives this team that is better than what Tyler Hansen can do.

Jayhawks likely will win mediocre Big 12 North - Kansas City Star
Jason Whitlock of the Kansas City Star calls for Dan Hawkins to be fired:

OK, I’ve seen every North team play in person except Colorado. I have the North figured out. I know which team is the best and has the best chance to get slaughtered by Texas or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship. It’s not Colorado. The Buffaloes have the worst coach. Dan Hawkins stuck his son back out on the field at QB in Manhattan on Saturday. A week after Tyler Hansen led the Buffs to a season-saving victory over KU, Cody Hawkins re-emerged to throw two horrible interceptions against K-State. Dan Hawkins should be fired. He’s not winning the North.

Wildcats draw coach's ire, even with victory - The Hutchinson News Online Edition
Anyone else want a coach who speaks like this after a win? Anger, mad, frustrated...that's Bill Synder after they dominated the Buffs in every single facet of the game except passing.

"It's not about being 3-1, it's about whether your football team gets better," Bill Synder said after the Wildcats improved to 5-3 overall and took a full game lead over Iowa State in the North. "That hasn't changed. "We didn't get better, and that's why I'm upset." That's a good thing, according to quarterback Grant Gregory, who drew much of Snyder's ire along with a sputtering offense. "If he wasn't upset, that would be a bad thing," Gregory said after the offense was unable to build on its 20-6 halftime advantage, coming up empty time and again deep in Colorado territory. "It's just like coaches always say, 'It's when I stop yelling at you that I've given up on you.'

CU coach Hawkins noncommital about next game's starter at QB - The Denver Post
The ole' "We'll see" quotes are back and better than ever:

Head coach Dan Hawkins was noncommittal after the 20-6 loss to Kansas State when asked if Hansen will be the starter for the upcoming homecoming game against Missouri, saying only, "We'll see, yeah."

Hawkins may stay as 2-minute QB - Boulder Daily Camera
The offensive coordinator and the head coach aren't on the same page...again:

Cody Hawkins ended up playing the majority of the second half because the Buffs were playing from behind, which led to questions afterward about who would be the starter next week when Missouri comes to Boulder for homecoming weekend. Coach Dan Hawkins wasn't definitive in answering the question, saying his coaching staff would do whatever needs to be done to help the team win games. Offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau said he planned on Hansen starting next week, but Hawkins will continue to run the no-huddle offense when it is needed. "Cody is going to be our guy when we go no-huddle," Kiesau said. "He's a little older, a little bit more mature. He's been in those situations and done that and been successful at it. So we kind of decided when we do go no-huddle, he'll be our guy. That's why we did it."

Buffs’ special teams suffer - The Longmont Times-Call
"Colorado’s special teams had a bad game Saturday"...that would be an understatement.

Colorado’s special teams had a bad game Saturday. During CU’s 20-6 loss at Kansas State, CU returner Jason Espinoza fumbled one punt that set the Wildcats up for their second touchdown of the day. And while the Buffs’ offense was unable to muster much most of the day, part of its problem was starting field position. CU averaged its 19; Kansas State its 47. Two plays especially contributed to that statistic. Espinoza caught one punt at his 4-yard line and said after the game he thought he was at the 10. He was tackled immediately. And punter Matt DiLallo tried to run for a first down on fourth-and-10 from CU’s 9 in the middle of the fourth quarter. He gained eight.

Big 12 North: Wild, wild race | Berry Tramel's Blog
Barry Trammel still thinks the Buffs can finish 4 - 4 in conference and in second place. That would mean the Buffs would have to beat Missouri, Texas A&M and Nebraska because we aren't winning on the road. Not out of the question but does anyone really believe that can happen after yesterday?

Colorado 1-2: Missouri, A&M, at Iowa State, at OSU, Nebraska. I figured the Buffs had two automatic wins in conference — A&M and Iowa State. Not now, not after Saturday, when the Aggies rolled in Lubbock and I-State pulled the Lincoln shocker. I still think Colorado has an excellent chance to get to 4-4 or even 5-3.

What we learned in the Big 12, Week 8 - Big 12 - ESPN

4. Kansas State appears to be for real in the North Division. With every team in the division but the Wildcats having at least two conference losses, why can’t Bill Snyder lead his team to the North title? Despite beating Colorado by two touchdowns Saturday afternoon, Snyder was steamed about his team’s critical penalties in the second half that twice took them out of field goal range. But Snyder can’t be mad at his defense, which limited Colorado to only a touchdown and dominated in the trenches from the opening snap in Saturday's game. KSU has a tough finishing schedule but could make it to a bowl even if they have to win seven games to get there. If they play like they did Saturday, and the rest of the North's powers like they did, it won't be a big surprise to see the Wildcats playing in the championship game.

CU Buffaloes' rocky road continues with loss at Kansas State - The Denver Post

"It's going to come down to leaders on the team," he said. "At this point, it's not about the coaches anymore. It's about our team taking pride in this program and this school and saying, 'We're not going to be at the bottom of the conference.' "We need to find out how to win football games. It's that cut and dried."

McKnight: Players must take responsibility - Boulder Daily Camera

Penalties still a problem for CU - The Longmont Times-Call

CU Buffs "don't get enough energy" on road - The Denver Post

CU Buffs` road woes continue with loss at Kansas State - Boulder Daily Camera

Last week was too good to be true. Seven days after an inspired victory at home over a ranked opponent, the Colorado football team was sloppy and lethargic Saturday under a dull, gray sky at Kansas State.

Bumbling, stumbling Mistake-prone Buffs can’t explain mistakes or loss to K-State - The Longmont Times-Call

HUSKER DEBACLE | Nebraska Cornhuskers Football | Huskers Gameday

# The Nebraska offense had 8 freaking turnovers. EIGHT !!! # The Huskers committed FOUR turnovers inside the Iowa state 5 yard line!!! # Zac Lee threw two picks in the last 3 minutes of the game

HuskerExtra.com - Lincoln, Nebraska - Football

"Eight turnovers," Husker coach Bo Pelini said. "We could have gotten run out of the stadium. I don’t know if I’ve ever been around that in my coaching career. You can’t win a football game like that."

Hits & Myths: CU vs KU - Buffs Win! Lookout, Big XII North!

Tom4Buffs — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:10:19 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado tailback Rodney Stewart (5) rushes for the go-ahead touchdown past Kansas cornerback D.J. Beshears in the fourth quarter of Colorado's 34-20 victory in an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

CU beats Kansas! Yes, this time it's not a dream or a half-time score. Final Score: Colorado 34, #15 Kansas 30.

There were signs last week that things finally might be changing for the better. Reduce the mistakes, hold the line on defense, and allow the change at QB to create a fresh start on offense, & maybe that first half at Texas could be reproduced against Kansas. After almost reproducing too much of the Texas game, the Buffs got a score near the end that the Jayhawks couldn't reproduce, and CU held on to win. Colorado's 34-30 victory over previously-unbeaten Kansas before a near-capacity crowd at Folsom Field came just in time to give team and fans alike hope for a successful season.

Whew! The Reesing curse is over, along with Colorado's 3-game losing streak to Kansas. How ironic was it to hear KU Coach Mangino say after the game, "It’s unfortunate they picked this week to take his redshirt off." Hansen had a terrific if not error-free starting debut, and now he travels to Manhattan to see if he can continue his mastery over teams from the state of Kansas.

THE HITS

1. Tyler Hansen - Tyler Hansen's first 2009 start as quarterback for the Colorado Buffaloes didn't produce gaudy statistics: 14 of 25 for 175 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception, 34 net yards rushing, 1 fumble. In fact, it was Rodney Stewart, not Hansen, who ended up co-winner of the Big XII Offensive Player of the Week. Anyone who watched the game, however, would tell you that the stats don't tell half the story, and that Hansen was every bit as valuable as Stewart in CU's 34-point effort. Hansen's actual rushing total, before subtracting sack yards(a record-keeping practice by the NCAA that makes as much sense as would subtracting penalty yardage from offensive totals), was 11 rushes for 64 yards, a 5.8 yard-per-carry average. When he passed, he threw more than screens and 5-yard passes. Half of his passes went for 11 or more yards, pushing his average to 12.5 yards per pass. But it was more when he ran or completed a pass that drove a dagger into the hearts of KU's defensive players and coaches. Almost half of his runs were for first downs or touchdown(3 of them for 11 or more yards), and 9 of his 14 completions were for 1st downs(& a 10th for a TD), often after scooting impossibly away from would-be tacklers. What's more, more than half of the first downs he accounted for came on 3rd down. It was a clutch performance, marred by a couple of turnovers, that came down to an end-of-the-game duel with a quarterback in Todd Reesing who had started for parts of four years. The redshirt sophomore outduelled the experienced senior, as Hansen came through to lead a winning touchdown drive that Reesing couldn't match.

2. The Hansen Effect - As good as Hansen himself was, he directly accounted for only two touchdowns, one passing and one rushing. 14 points wasn't enough to win the game last week against Texas, nor would it have been this week against Kansas. However, a dual-threat quarterback with a strong arm catalyzes the whole team, changing not only the way opposing players react on defense but the way teammates respond on offense. On defense, opponents have to play against the run as well as the pass every time the QB drops back. Would-be sackers have to contain as well as attack. Pass defenders have to stay on mid- or long-range routes longer. On offense, linemen can take advantage of the run/pass uncertainty, & backs and receivers can find more creases and space. Receivers and linemen find themselves more often in position to do down field blocking, and they begin to learn how important that is in turning short gains into explosion plays. The more they do it, the better they become. That opens up the running plays, which open up the passing plays, and soon you have a more balanced, high-scoring offense that only has to pass 25 times to complement a 177-yard rushing attack. The offense's ability to take advantage of turnovers and good field position makes the defense and special teams feel like their efforts are worthwhile, and they play better. And Hansen's success makes the coaches feel like they can use more of their playbook to adapt to different teams and adjust to different in-game scenarios. That's known as (formerly) the McCoy Effect in Texas, (almost formerly) the Tebow Effect in Florida, (formerly?) the Reesing Effect in Kansas, and now the Hansen Effect in Colorado. Let's hope the Hansen Effect becomes a Special Effect for the Buffs.

3. Aric Goodman - The punt teams did not allow any turnovers or touchdowns this week, and Jason Espinoza remained steady in cleanly fielding every punt. The kickoff return team continued to do an excellent job, as Darrell Scott and Scotty McKnight combined for 26.3 yards per return. It was Aric Goodman, however, who was the real star on special teams. Goodman gave an outstanding and courageous performance, battling an abdominal injury while keeping his PATs perfect on the season, converting both field goals, one of which was his first FG in the 40-49 yard range, and booting every one of his seven kickoffs into(or through) the end zone, only two of which were returned. His field-goal conversions alone proved to be the difference in the game. Goodman was deservedly recognized by the College Football Performance Awards as the National Kickoff Specialist of the Week.

4. Everybody else - There are too many "hits" to list, but suffice it to say that it was a team effort, from Rodney Stewart's 6th 100-yard game to Marquez Herrod's thrashing 3-sack attack to Riar Geer's clutch catches and nose for the end zone to excellent prep and game-day calls by coaches to blocking wide receivers to true freshman defensive linemen to senior leaders to leap-frogging quarterbacks to sophomores seemingly everywhere to the best student section in college football to faithful alumni who nearly filled Folsom to a lopsided loss by the Huskers to a beautiful autumn night in Boulder. And, of course, to that "W" in the record.

THE MYTHS

1. The CU Running Game is Back - The 177 yards of rushing offense(again, not counting the sack-loss yardage) was a vast improvement over the 62 yards of rushing in the Texas game. Nevertheless, the magic number for a true smash mouth rushing attack is 200 yards in a game, and when you take away Hansen's 64 yards, the remaining 113 yards is far short of smash mouth. Yes, Hansen already came close to that in the Kansas game, but until those yards come on designed running plays for Hansen, I wont count Hansen as the second running back, and I wont believe the CU running game is back. Two things need to happen to get to that number and prove that the CU running game is truly back: a 2nd running back needs to get 75+ yards on a day when the 1st gets 100+ yards, a running back needs to break open a long touchdown run, and these need to happen in at least two games. Until then, the Buffs will continue to get by with their rushing attack. I believe it will be back very soon.

2. The Special Teams is Special - Aric Goodman was special on Saturday, and he already has two Kickoff Specialist of the Week awards this year. He has usually been special this year, yet he still needs to be a little more consistent, particularly in kicking field goals. The rest of the special teams still have a lot of room for improvement. Matt DiLallo started out strong but has reverted back to mid-30-yard-average punt games, which caused CU significant field position disadvantages in the last game. And the kickoff return team has been good, but they have the potential to be great. Once or twice this year, CU will need Scott or Lockridge to break a return for six. They've been close, but close rarely counts in football.

3. There are too many distractions in the Denver area to get good fan support for CU Football - We've all heard this line trotted out for many years to explain why CU doesn't sell out its football games. There are the Broncos, the Rockies, the Avalanche, the Nuggets, the Rapids, the Mammoth, the Pioneers, the Flatirons, Red Rocks Amphitheater, the National Parks & Forests, the 14ers, fishing, hiking, hunting, biking, running, golfing, skiing, snowboarding, driving, walking, drinking, smoking, toking, napping, etc. Ok, so there is a lot to see and do in Boulder/Denver/Colorado. If that's keeping people from coming to games, then explain how we ended up with 51,146 people coming to watch a 1-4 team play football on a beautiful autumn Saturday with the temperature at 68 degrees at kickoff during a down economy. I'll tell you why. There are a lot of people now to go around for all of those activities, and a lot of them are CU grads or know CU grads and/or have otherwise had a chance to see a game at Folsom Field in person or on TV. They have seen the beauty of the CU campus and they know that there is nothing quite like walking through a college campus and into a stadium where you can watch a live American Bison run around a football field, see the Colorado Buffaloes play the great game of football with some of the best teams and players in the country, look up to catch a view of the Flatirons and the Rocky Mountains, and look down to see golden-yellow throngs of students pouring onto the field after their beloved Buffs have upset a Top Twenty team. I'll take that over a night in Austin or Lincoln, in Invesco Field or Coors Field, Pepsi Center or Dick's Sporting Goods Park any day.

THE FIXES

1. Stop the opponent's best receivers - While the defense is turning into a strength of the team, they are still giving up too many explosion plays, and usually to receivers. While you can never completely shut down a great receiver, you need to box them in. Make contact at the line of scrimmage. Safeties need to get into double coverage more consistently when covering the likes of Shipley and Briscoe. If you can't get to the ball, make them pay by making the hard tackle, not just the hard hit. And when you do get your hands on the ball, act like it's yours and catch it. If the QB favors a receiver on a certain side, get hands and bodies in front of the QB on that side and blitz them to death from the other(blind) side. Make the quarterback and their favorite targets as uncomfortable as possible.

2. Turn the running backs into (better) receivers - Get the running backs plenty of reps catching the ball, so Scott stays good and the rest of them get better. Stewart and Lockridge each had golden opportunities for long gains slip through their fingers on Saturday. Use Scott more as a receiver in the slot or out of the backfield, as he has the best hands of the group. And please, please, please get Lockridge into open space - he has the next best set of hands and the fastest set of wheels.

3. Use the clock and the snap count better - There was a dramatic drop in penalties from 20 to 8, but that's still a lot. Most of them come from false starts and sideline-related issues like delays of game and substitution penalties. These are irritating because they're so preventable. (Please get Riar some help with the snap count.) Having a new quarterback in there probably accounts for some of it. Take this opportunity to work on the snap count more than usual, and while you're at it, practice quick snaps and off-cadence counts to draw opponents offsides. Believe it or not, really working on tricking the other side will prevent your own line(offense AND defense, B.J.) from being drawn off. And figure out a system or set of sideline personnel that eliminates the delays in getting plays and players in to the huddle. Maybe Cody has some ideas after suffering through it for the better part of three years.

4. Learn from past games - The young Buffs now know that if they can play with the number two team in the country and do it in Austin, they can play with anybody anywhere. So a Little Apple shouldn't intimidate them. They also need to learn that when they have a team down, they can never relax, never relent, just keep taking the ball away and keep driving into the endzone. They need to know that everybody plays a role and that everyone needs to be ready, because someone always needs to step up. The Buffs should know now that they can hang with anybody in the Big XII, but also that anybody can hang with them. The difference is maximum effort on every play and smart football. They need to constantly attack, always looking for somebody to block, for a way to get the ball, for a way to get another yard, for a way to turn a run, a catch, a return, a fumble or an interception into a touchdown. And if they can beat a #15 team from Kansas, they ought to be able to beat an unranked purple team from Kansas. GO BUFFS!!! BEAT THE WILDCATS!!!

Colorado Buffaloes Respond, Defeat Previously Unbeaten Kansas Jayhawks

irish1611 — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:05:15 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado wide receiver Markques Simas, front, pulls in a pass for a long gain as Kansas safety Chris Harris comes in to cover in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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It looked like the Colorado Buffaloes were going to lose their second consecutive game after leading at halftime. That feeling of having a snake bitten year creeped in every fans mind after Todd Reesing capitalized on a few Buff turnovers to bring the Jayhawks back from a 24 - 3 deficit to take the lead 30 - 27. It would have been a fitting ending to a four year career that started with a win against Colorado and would have cemented Reesing as a player that Colorado fans would never forget as a big thorn in their side.

13 minutes left in the game and the Buffs needed to respond, something they hadn't done with any consistency the past four years. Enter sophomore quarterback Tyler Hansen.

CU fans were hoping that Hansen would do his best Reesing like impression, someone he tries to emulate, to lead Colorado to a win. Hansen and the offense responded.

After a five yard false start penalty on TE Riar Geer pushing the Buffs back to the 19 yard line followed by two incomplete passes, it looked like Colorado would fall short once again. On 3rd and 15, Tyler Hansen responded moving within the pocket to find Geer for 29 yards converting the long third down and getting the offensive motor started back up. Reesing has had many third and forever conversions in his collegiate career, maybe the Buffs version of Reesing had a coming out party of his own with that pass. Hansen went on to convert two more third downs, one by air, one by feet that helped the Buffs cap off a 10 play, 76 yard drive with seven points and a 34 - 30 lead.

Not a bad showing for a guy that was used sparingly a year ago in four games and was supposed to redshirt this year after Cody Hawkins was named starter in the fall. Hansen finished 14 - 25, 175 yards threw the air with a touchdown and rushed for 34 yards and another score. He did have one fumble and an interception but the defense held serve, only allowing three points on those two possessions. Rodney Stewart made up for his one fumble rushing for over 100 yards and two scores.

What you won't see in the stats are four things that separated Hansen's performance from the previous games:

1) His ability to buy time was clearly what this offense needed. Hansen showed that he can drop back and throw in a rhythm but he also had the knack to get outside the pocket, buy time and make plays. What I am excited for is when the receiver to quarterback relationships continue to develop with Hansen, those plays when Hansen gets out of the pocket will become even more potent.

2) The offense was much more fluid and seemed like they had a chance to make plays. The previous four weeks, it seemed like the Buffs needed every ounce of energy to gain five yards. Granted, the Kansas defense provides little resistance but the CU offense had plenty of plays that were over 10 yards and were able to get five receivers the ball early in the game. Hansen got WR Markques Simas on a 36 yard fade route early in the game that seemed to add another dimension to this offense. Bottom line, with Hansen at the helm the offense looked less constricted and shedded the cookie cutter scheme that led to only 127 yards a week ago. The Buffs had more rushing yards against Kansas than total yards against Texas.

3) Eric Kiesau's play calling was much improved with Hansen in there. Yes, getting an early lead helped but the Buffs ran the ball 43 times to 25 pass attempts, the ratio we hoped for at the beginning of the year. But you could tell based on the variety of plays Kiesau was able to call, he could dial up a few more things that he hadn't been able to in the past. Quarterback draws, quick hitting long out routes for 7 - 8 yards from the pocket, belly option reads, a well executed screen pass to Darrell Scott, etc. Kiesau's team looked much more comfortable.

4) The defense had to account for 11 players and not 10. Plain and simple, the quarterback made plays and was a threat to make plays all game. Two plays that ended up as drops but could have made highlight reels on ESPN this morning was the two scrambling efforts by Hansen, one dropped by Sumler and the other by Stewart deep down the field. Those plays wouldn't have had any chances to be completed a week ago.

The Buffs did most of their damage in the second quarter scoring 24 points, 14 of which came off two Todd Reesing turnovers forced by the defense. You couldn't have asked for a better defensive performance in the first half from Ron Collins' squad. They allowed ten points to a top five offense in the first 30 minutes of play and really controlled the line of scrimmage. Reesing and Co. got going late in the first half and the third quarter but the Buffs came up big the last two drives of the game when they needed it. The only trouble the Buffs had against Reesing was when they dropped 8 and limited the pass rush, especially the last drive of the first half or when Reesing would improvise, heave one up to Dezmon Briscoe and the All American duo would come up with a miraculous play. Many will be worried about the 431 yards passing but a ton of those yards were just great plays that Briscoe and Reesing made a play on, not long run and catches that plagued the Buffs the first three weeks of the season. That is why Reesing is a Heisman mention and Briscoe, along with Jordan Shipley, should be considered two of the top four receivers in the nation. Kansas needed a few trick plays to dent the Buffs defense as well but in the five big drives that Kansas had, the Buffs only gave up six points. Three turnovers, the Colorado defense responded only allowing six points (two field goals) and shut down the Jayhawks on the last two possessions of the game.

Kansas also did the Colorado Buffaloes a favor, not establishing the running game at all. In an unbelievable stat, the Colorado defense held the Kansas Jayhawks to -8 yards rushing on 22 attempts. Strip out Reesing's negative fourty yards and Jake Sharp still only gained 29 yards on 13 carries. Talk about a turnaround. Through the first four games of the year, Colorado's defense gave up 205 yards a game on the ground. The last two weeks against arguably the two favorites to play in the Big 12 championship: 19 yards per game. That defensive line anchored by three true freshman, Curtis Cunningham and Marquez Herrod have improved greatly.

There are plenty of reasons to also think this offense and defense can get better. Briefly, turnovers and penalties still plague the offense. The Buffs turned the ball over twice deep in their own territory, the defense held but to continue to rattle off wins, you can't lose the turnover battle and expect to emerge victorious. It is the most important comparative statistic in football. Luckily, the Buffs scored 14 points on Kansas turnovers and Kansas only scored 6 points on the three Colorado giveaways.

Also on the offensive side of the ball, the Buffs continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the Big 12. Eight infractions, mostly false starts consistently put the Buffs at a disadvantage. We saw it last week with Nate Solder, this week Riar Geer, who had a solid receiving game including a touchdown, had the issues with the snap count. Those two players are two of the more veteran players on the team. They know they can't have those penalties. Some of the issue might be getting used to a new quarterbacks' cadence. The penalties need to be cut in half.

Darrell Scott is doing a good job returning kick offs, maybe we should give him a shot at punt returns. I get the idea for a sure handed returner back there now with Jason Espinoza but he has not provided the burst and big game potential the Buffs need. He is the complete opposite of Josh Smith last year, being little risk and no reward although last night Espinoza almost muffed the ball himself. I think if Darrell Scott is only getting a few touches on offense, this might be a good spot for him in the future. Espinoza does a great job not fumbling but I would sure like to get more out of the special teams game.

A great win any way you cut it after the past few weeks of the season. It is a whole new ball game in the North with Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas all losing yesterday. Kansas State, the Buffs next opponent, sits on top of the North after dismantling the Texas A&M Aggies 62 - 14. That game now looks to be more competitive than once expected and could have some ramifications come seasons end if both teams can maintain their level of play. Remember Phil Steele predicting Kansas State to finish tied with the Buffs at second in the North? He might not be that far off if both teams play like this for the rest of the season and the other teams in the North continue to struggle. What a difference a playmaking quarterback is!

A few quick hitters I noticed:

-Jimmy Smith had strong support and good physical play in the first quarter. Seems one step slow on a few occasions but extremely talented. Marquez Herrod's sack in the first quarter was a direct result of Jimmy Smith's great coverage on Briscoe in the red zone.

-Forrest West and Nate Bonsu have the potential to be great.

-Kansas never really tried to run the ball, were never committed and it made it easier on the defense.

-Rodney Stewart just hits the hole hard, gets up in there, hardly ever tackled for a loss.

-With protection, I love how Hansen drops back, plants and goes forward with the ball. He works in a good rhythm if he can stand in the pocket and the ball is not late out of his hands.

-Defense is hitting well and tackling well.

-Ben Burney does very well coming up to the line of scrimmage and making tackles. Looks good as a safety.

-First half defense was great, good mix of blitzes and coverage schemes.

Sunday Buff Bites - Tyler Hansen in, Cody Hawkins Out

irish1611 — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:54:29 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

2 months ago: Texas' Marquise Goodwin (84) blocks a punt by Colorado's Matt DiLallo (14) during the third quarter of their NCAA college football game in Austin, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. Texas recovered and scored a touchdown on the play. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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For one half last night, Colorado Buff fans enjoyed themselves mightily. Dreams of a big upset danced in everyone's head and to get a taste of that in what has been a tumultuous season so far was a welcomed feeling, even if the second half was brutal. As I stated last night, the defense played exceptionally well, holding the number one scoring offense to only 17 points and less than 50 yards rushing.

On the flipside, the Buffs' offense gave the defense zero help. Without the defense turning over Texas QB Colt McCoy twice deep in Longhorn territory, the offensive performance would have been even more putrid. The Colorado offense only totaled 127 yards, completed only 9 of 23 passes and averaged a measley 1.2 yards/rush. The fact that the Buffs had a chance to go up 21 - 17 late in the third quarter showed you how strong the defense played.

Kent Riddle, the special teams and tight end coach, should once again begin to catch some fire. A week after the Colorado Buffaloes missed three field goals in a tight contest the Buffs only lost by 11 points against West Virginia, the special teams' play reared its ugly head. Last year, the special teams performance was downright awful and the trend is continuing this year. Against Texas, in crucial times during the game, the Buffs gave up a kickoff return to Jordan Shipley and a blocked punt both resulting in touchdowns for the Longhorns. Texas continually came close to blocking punts all night long and the Buffs failed to make the necessary adjustments.

You won't win many games against the second ranked team giving up 21 points on non-offensive plays. The Buffs aren't good enough to give up 21 points on non offensive plays to any team remaining on their schedule and expect to win. The Buffs have to be more disciplined in this aspect.

This team also needs to start capitalizing on the oppositions' mistakes and limit the mental mishaps of their own. Last week, Colorado had its opportunities when West Virginia turned the ball over four times and let the Buffs hang around. Against Texas, the Buffs defense played well but mental breakdowns on offense (20 penalties and a red zone interception for a touchdown after an Colt McCoy interception) and on special teams cost this team a victory. Call it youth, call it poor coaching, call it whatever you want, we can all agree that these are the plays and mistakes Colorado needs to fix if they want to be a good team. You have to win ball games when the opposition turns the ball over four times and you have to be sound in the special teams game and not turn the ball over in big situations.

Buff links and Tyler Hansen talk after the jump...

Buffaloes turn to Hansen - The Longmont Times-Call

Hansen revealed Saturday night that offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau asked him to stay late after a quarterback meeting one day last week to talk. Hansen said that’s when he knew something was up. "He said, ‘Close the door,’" Hansen said. "He said, ‘You know what I’m going to tell you.’ Once he sat me down, I knew. Once he gave me that look, it was pretty much the exact same thing (former offensive coordinator Mark) Helfrich had last year. "I guess I’m getting kind of used to burning this redshirt, you know?"

Hansen said coaches gave him a couple of days to decide if he was willing to do it again, as he did in the sixth game of 2008 when he was a true freshman. He discussed it with parents and high school coaches. "It pretty much came down to I could get in an accident tomorrow and never have an opportunity to play another game, so if you have the opportunity to play, especially at the college level in this kind of atmosphere, so you take it," he said. "It came down to that. I’m happy with it. Now I have to roll with it."

Buffs fade at Texas after strong start; Hansen new No. 1 QB - The Denver Post

The quarterback position may be more important in the college game than in either the high school level or the NFL. With Hansen at the controls now, Colorado has made a decision to go in a new direction. Hansen burned his redshirt in the sixth game last year and in Game 5 this time. No regrets, the Californian said. "I think I am able to handle it better than last year," Hansen said. "I'm going to try to get this thing rolling."

Colorado offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau said the decision to anoint Hansen the permanent starter was made as soon as he went into the game. Last year, Hansen started two games but didn't play much in the final two. "The thing that I wanted to make sure (to Hansen) was that, if and when we do this, like we did tonight, it would be worth his while," Kiesau said.

Hansen takes reins as Buffs fall to Texas - Boulder Daily Camera

Coaches inserted sophomore Tyler Hansen, who played the rest of the game, but was unable to lead the Buffs to more points or a comeback. It is the second consecutive season Hansen`s redshirt has been burned midway through the year. This time around, coaches say they will stick with him for the rest of the year barring injury or completely ineffective play. "I don`t want to get into the back and forth, back and forth or having packages," offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau said. "I want to have a guy. I want the team to see that, and right now, today, Tyler is our guy."

Turnaround for CU - The Longmont Times-Call

The special teams errors glared brightest. CU led 14-10 in the third quarter when Texas’ Marquise Goodwin blocked CU’s punt and Ben Wells scooped it up and went three yards for the score. In the fourth, Texas’ Jordan Shipley ran through CU’s rattled punt cover team on a 74-yard touchdown return that put the Longhorns ahead 31-14.

"They cost us the game," special teams coach Kent Riddle said. "Unacceptable performance. That’s a little bit the nature of special teams. It only takes one play to kill you. We let that play happen to us. "It shouldn’t have ever happened. We’re going to make damn sure it doesn’t happen again." Dan Hawkins might appreciate that. "We let (Texas) off the hook," he said. "I’m proud of (his players). Nobody batted an eye. We weren’t shocked when we were ahead or when things went bad. We saw glimpses of what we can be down the stretch. We have to put all three phases together and we’ll have a chance to do some things."

Paige: Hawkins benching tough for dad, son - The Denver
Woody Paige of the Denver Post talked about the difficult decision the coach and the father had to make last night, pulling his quarterback and son for Tyler Hansen.

When I asked the elder Hawkins about his decision, he replied: "Do you mean about Cody? . . . He's got to make that throw . . . in the red zone." He obviously was answering as a coach and as a father. Then the coach said of Hansen: "He's really a trouper. He has paid his dues. . . . He will start next week" against Kansas. Last year Hansen was put in against Kansas State, and the Buffs won 14-13. He started the following Saturday at Missouri, and the Buffs lost 58-0. Cody started three more games, Hansen one more. Eric Kiesau, CU's offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach, said the Buffs will not be "wishy-washy" about the starting quarterback the rest of the season. "You can't go back and forth. . . . Tyler is our quarterback."

Buffs’ defense leaves Austin happy - The Longmont Times-Call
Injury news:

CU linebacker Doug Rippy suffered a knee sprain in the second quarter. He did not return. Receiver Jason Espinoza (broken thumb) was again limited to fielding punts, which he did without a fumble. He did not play on offense for the second game in a row. CU reported no other injuries.

Another reason the Buffs felt the need to make a switch at quarterback is Texas showed that if you take away Scotty McKnight, Colorado's passing game turned to very ineffective:

EXTRA POINTS: Receiver Scotty McKnight extended his streak of catches to 29 straight games. He finished with one grab, and it came late in the fourth quarter

Hansen, CU coaches discussed possible removal of redshirt early in week - Boulder Daily Camera

Center Mike Iltis was medically cleared from a concussion late in the week, but because he did not practice, he did not play against the Longhorns. Junior walk-on Keenan Stevens started for the second consecutive week in place of Iltis.

KU defense needs to get better in a hurry
The Buffs next opponent, the Kansas Jayhawks, gave up a lot of yards to Iowa State this past week. Tyler Hansen should have a good opportunity to show some stuff next week in his 2009 debut.

The Cyclones finished with 512 yards of offense, snapped the ball 84 times and totaled 26 first downs.

Second half proves to be Buffs downfall | CU Independent

The Buffs were called for a school-record 20 penalties, eclipsing the 18 they had on Sept. 30, 1950 against Kansas State. The 140 penalty yards were the second-most behind the 153 accrued on Oct. 11, 1958 against Arizona.

A Statistical Look: Colorado Buffaloes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

irish1611 — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Back by popular demand, here is a statistical look at the upcoming game against West Virginia. Not pretty!

Advantage

	National	Conf	Actual	Category	Actual	Conf	National
	Rank	Rank	Actual	Category	Actual	Rank	Rank
West Virginia	111	11	91.67	Rushing Offense	192.33	2	34
West Virginia	37	8	251	Passing Offense	293	2	15
West Virginia	103	12	105.75	Passing Efficiency	148.33	4	33
West Virginia	84	12	342.67	Total Offense	485.33	1	10
West Virginia	69	10	26.33	Scoring Offense	32.67	4	35
West Virginia	103	12	183	Rushing Defense	83.67	3	14
Colorado	77	9	227	Pass Defense	228.33	5	81
West Virginia	100	12	144.32	Pass Efficiency Defense	119.2	4	56
West Virginia	101	12	410	Total Defense	312	4	35
Colorado	77	12	25.67	Scoring Defense	27	7	83
Colorado	38	7	37.4	Net Punting	36.38	6	51
West Virginia	97	12	4.29	Punt Returns	9.43	3	60
Colorado	35	5	24.87	Kickoff Returns	22.2	5	54
Colorado	89	12	-0.67	Turnover Margin	-2.33	8	116
West Virginia	40	8	2.33	Sacks	3	3	12
West Virginia	T-79	10	5	Tackles For Loss	7	4	25
West Virginia	96	12	2.67	Sacks Allowed	1	3	24

Colorado under Dan Hawkins is 2 - 2 after a bye. West Virginia is 5 - 2 after a bye since 2006. Colorado is 1 - 5 on road at night since Hawkins arrival while West Virginia is 5 - 2 at home at night since 2006. West Virginia's overall home record since 2006 is 18 - 3.

West Virginia, as expected, has the advantage on paper. A few glimmers of hope are attached to the turnover margin and scoring defense. Aided by the Wyoming shut out last week, Colorado's scoring defense improved drastically from a few weeks ago. West Virginia's defense has given up 27 points a game - 20 to Liberty, 20 to Eastern Carolina and 41 to Auburn. This defense has been scored on this year.

The final piece of hope just looking at the stats is the turnover margin. Last week, West Virginia turned the ball over six times to an opportunistic Auburn team. If the Buffs want to win their first road game in two years and the third total since Dan Hawkins has been head coach, Colorado's defense needs to play aggressive and force turnovers. West Virginia has protected Jarrett Brown well, only giving up one sack on average a game. That being said, Colorado will have to walk the fine line of committing extra players for a pass rush while avoiding the big play from RB Noel Devine and Brown. If Colorado's defense contains the West Virginia offense tomorrow, it will be because the secondary. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins needs to feel confident that he can allow the linebackers to roam around the line of scrimmage to stop Devine and pressure Brown. That means leaving the safeties and corners on an island, keeping big plays to a minimum. This would be a great time to see Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Ben Burney, Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins to make big plays, force a few turnovers and be consistent.

Any strong play from the defensive line is a bonus but I expect West Virginia to try and get them on skates early with a heavy dose of Devine. It will be key for the defensive line fill the gaps and play strong assignment football. A big part of being successful against the zone-read is to occupy your gaps and fill areas so the linebackers can make plays at the point of attack. If the defensive line plays out of position tomorrow it could be a very long day.

If the defense can get Brown and the West Virginia offense off the field the first few series and all the Buffs' running game to get in a rhythm, who knows what can happen. Colorado needs to play a perfect game on the road, get turnovers and find a way to have more big plays than West Virginia.

Players stats after the jump. Check back later for more discussion on the offense and the keys to the game.

Conf	National	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	National	Conf
Rank	Rank	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	Rank	Rank
		85.5	Rodney Stewart	Rushing	Noel Devine	106.67	16	2
12		105.74	Cody Hawkins	Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jarrett Brown	151.16	28	4
7	T-49	229.33	Cody Hawkins	Total Offense	Jarrett Brown	335.33	6	1
5	T-22	6.67	Scotty McKnight	Receptions Per Game	Jock Sanders	9.67	3	1
9	48	75.67	Scotty McKnight	Receiving Yards Per Game	Jock Sanders	103	T-16	3
T-5	T-72	0.33	Benjamin Burney	Interceptions	Robert Sands	0.33	T-72	T-6
12	71	4.29	Jason Espinoza	Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jock Sanders	14.75	22	1
		26.3	Darrell Scott	Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Mark Rodgers	26.6	32	3
21		6.33	Aric Goodman	Scoring	Noel Devine	10	T-21	3
23		76.33	Scotty McKnight	All-Purpose Runners	Noel Devine	142	32	2
T-10	T-58	0.67	B.J. Beatty	Sacks	Julian Miller	0.83	T-27	4
T-7	T-61	8.67	Jeff Smart	Tackles	Jt Thomas	7.33		6
		6.33	Cha'pelle Brown		Brandon Hogan	6.67		10
		6	Jimmy Smith		Pat Lazear	5		T-25
T-16		1	B.J. Beatty	Tackles For Loss	Jt Thomas	1.5	T-27	3
					Julian Miller	1.33	T-52	5
					Pat Lazear	1.17	T-73	8

Saturday Morning Buff Bites

irish1611 — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:15:34 -0000

Buffs seek right role for Lockridge - The Longmont Times-Call

Lockridge didn’t play football until he was a junior in high school, and he’s still honing his field instincts. Head coach Dan Hawkins said a lot of Lockridge’s challenge is "just reacting in a football sense of things." Hawkins said there was a play the other day — he did not specify if it was the Wyoming game or a practice — in which Lockridge stuck to his pass route when the opportunity to find open space was available to him if he had changed the route just a bit. These are the kind of lessons Lockridge is still trying to learn. "We try to put him in a position where he can use his skills and let him do what he does," Hawkins said. "He’s a smart kid. But that’s the intuitive side of it, where you have guys like Espy (Jason Espinoza) and Scotty (McKnight). ... They can see it and get it and adapt to it and adjust to it just because they have a little bit more familiarity with it."

Hawkins: recruiting going well : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado

Hawkins said recruiting is going well. "It is. We’ve got some commitments from some good kids, so, we’ll see," he said. "(Recruiting) is so whacky, you never know. But, yeah, I think we’ve got some good kids."

The beginning of the end for Dan Hawkins - Idaho Press-Tribune

Dan Hawkins was close to having shrine built in honor outside the varsity center at Boise State prior to taking over as the head coach at Colorado in 2005. Everyone loved him at Boise State, nationally he was regarded as not only a great football coach, but a better motivator. He was considered college football's version of Phil Jackson.

...

You're right, Hawk, you should love them up, but this is college football, a game that pays you millions of dollars. It's a cut-throat business and it's not nice when the losses outnumber the wins — by a lot.

Hawkins is close to losing his job and it's starting to show. The pressure is high and now he's going after the media, the same media who "loved him up" not so long ago.

Brooks: Run Game Back On Track - CUBuffs.com

They're hoping for a recurrence against the Mountaineers, whose defensive front usually consists of three down linemen with three linebackers stacked behind them (a 3-3 stack). It will be critical for CU's O-linemen to shed their blockers and get to the linebackers - a process Johnson compares to "sometimes like fighting bees in there." Schematically, said Johnson, the Mountaineers "don't appear different. They've been running that defense for a good long while and are obviously ingrained in it and committed to it. "There's always a wrinkle here or there, but it looks what they've been in for the last several years." Added Miller: "We played an odd-structured team last week, so as far as game-planning, I'm not sure how much it's really going to change. That 3-3 with fast linebackers . . . I think we just need to get to the linebackers. If we can get off the down guys and get to the linebackers, I think we'll be OK."
...
"Physically, I think we match up well with anyone," Miller said. We've got freaks - Nate (Solder) at left tackle, I'm at right and all of our interior guys are big. "It's a relief to say that as an offensive line you've got a group of strong, physical guys." Johnson "respects" West Virginia's defensive front, but adds, "Personnel-wise, it should be a competitive matchup. I would certainly think we'd be up to the challenge."

CU Buffs DB Jimmy Smith ready for next test - Boulder Daily Camera

If there has been a strong point in the CU defense thus far in 2009, Smith is probably it. He and fellow cornerback Cha`pelle Brown, a senior, have been on the field for 199 snaps each, more than any of their teammates. Opponents often choose to throw away from Smith and attack other parts of the field and other CU defenders.

CU freshman LBs Major, Rippy show off potential - The Denver Post

West Virginia Working on "Let's Go Mountaineers" Chant for Colorado game - The Smoking Musket

more links after the jump...

Friday night football roundup | After School - Buff Commit QB Nick Hirschman Rolls

LOS GATOS 47, SALINAS 7 Senior quarterback Nick Hirschman completed 15 of 18 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns and Andrew Berg scored every which way to lead Los Gatos. Berg caught two passes from Hirschman and also ran for a score and returned a punt 92 yards to paydirt. The senior finished with seven catches for 135 yards. Cole Cusella ran nine times for 117 yards and Alec Gletzer led the way defensively with 14 tackles.

Gabbert leads Mizzou past Nevada - Buffzone
Blaine Gabbert passed for 414 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring tosses of 74 and 31 yards to Danario Alexander, to help Missouri beat Nevada 31-21 on Friday night.

Chatfield's Fralick boots Columbine to end rivalry losing streak - The Denver Post
Buff commit QB/Ath Danny Spond's Columbine High team lost a tough one to fellow Buff commit TE Kyle Slavin from Chatfield high school:

Early, it was all Columbine as Spond had stellar touchdown runs of 34 and 62 yards. Fralick's first field goal was all Chatfield could muster in the first half. However, two consecutive Columbine fumbles led to Gifford's 5-yard scoring run and Fralick's second field goal.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Week 1

Jon Woods — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 21:10:14 -0000

The football season is back and so is the Roundtable. In case you're new here or neglected the roundtables last season, it's when the Big 12 bloggers get together and share their opinions on the same topics. Feel free to add your own opinions in the comments section.

1. Everyone knows the national talking points for each Big 12 team by now (Oklahoma has new linemen! Bill Snyder's back at Kansas State! Baylor might upset somebody!). Give us a storyline for your team that isn't quite getting the attention it should.

I guess the only storylines you ever hear out of Boulder on a national level are "10 wins, no excuses", "It's the Big 12 brother" (still) and of course, "Cody Hawkins is the quarterback because his Dad is the coach" talk... basically everything other than what is taking place on the field. The quarterback competition is always going to grab most of the headlines but the storyline I will be watching is how the Buffs inexperienced players respond on the defensive line and at wide receiver, both considered unknowns going into the season.

At defensive line Colorado replaces three graduating seniors who underperformed a year ago but still leaves everyone uneasy because those seniors played the majority of the snaps. No one really knows what to expect from the big guys up front but if they can outpace their expectations Colorado has the talent elsewhere to be a top tier defense in the Big 12. We should know a lot about the defensive line, which has two true freshmen on the two deep rotation, early on as Colorado State's offensive line is the most experienced group in the country with 129 total starts.

At wide receiver the Buffs can be horrible or they can have the best group of players since Hawkins has been here... and no one has any idea which way it will go. The two most talented wide receivers are Markques Simas and Andre Simmons, but neither has ever taken a snap at the division one level and have established their reputations on potential alone. To make matters worse, Simmons, a 6'3 215 pound 4.4 running junior college transfer, was not cleared to play until last week so his timetable for impact is unknown and Marques Simas continues to have off field problems. Simas, suspended last season for being ineligible, was also suspended for the first two games of 2009 for "violating team rules". Once again, who knows when we will start seeing an impact from him. With those two players healthy and on the field the Buffaloes have a strong group of wideouts. Without them we will be looking at Scotty McKnight (former walk-on, led the Buffs in receptions the last two years) , Jason Espinoza (walk-on), Ryan Maxwell (walk-on) and Will Jefferson (true freshman who was an August 2009 signee) as the top four receivers.

Should be interesting...

2. The Big 12 continues to be derided by other conferences as a pass-happy, no defense, made-for-TV free-for-all. The question must be asked, how accurate is this description, and is the perception something of which the conference should be ashamed?

Pass happy? Yes. No defense? Not at all. Let's look at the conference bowl game results:

Missouri holds Northwestern to 23 points. Northwestern season average - 24.5
Kansas holds Minnesota to 21 points. Season average - 23.4
Nebraska holds Clemson to 21 points. Season average - 25.5
Texas holds Ohio State to 21 points. Season average - 28.1
Oklahoma holds Florida to 24 points. Season average - 45.2

Yes, I left out Oklahoma State and Texas Tech because we all know that neither one of those defenses aren't any good. But otherwise the numbers don't lie. The Big 12 defenses are fine, the offenses are just that good.

3. Over the summer, ESPN's Tim Griffin compiled a list of the Top 25 moments of the Big 12 era that stirred up a bit of internal debate. Which moments for your program were either overrated or underrated?

I don't know about underrated or overrated. But ask almost any Buff fan what their favorite Big 12 moment was and you will get an unanimous response:

12. A Buffalo stampede: Six Chris Brown TDs lead CU to first Big 12 title game.

4. We've seen no less than 30-40 "Best Big 12 Coaches" power rankings in the offseason, but rarely is there the same press for the coordinators. If you had to replace your offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator with coordinators from within the conference, who are you poaching and why?

At offensive coordinator I would start with Kevin Wilson from Oklahoma. How can you argue with the success that he has had, setting some ridiclous offensive records last year.

If we were looking at coaching (and excluding recruiting from the argument) then I would take Will Muschamp from Texas. If recruiting is in the equation I would take Brent Venables instead. There may not be a better recruiter in the conference and that

5. Time to start our weekly Big 12 Power Poll. Rank the Big 12 team from 1 to 12. (Note: This IS a power poll and isn't intended to account for schedule)

1. Oklahoma
2. Texas
3. Kansas
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas Tech
6. Nebraska
7. Colorado
8. Baylor
9. Missouri
10. Texas A&M
11. Iowa State
12. Kansas State

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed