SB Nation - Kendall Wright

Post Game Thoughts :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:00:40 -0000

by Jerry Larson - AP

23 days ago: Texas Tech's Lyle Leong scores against Baylor's Joe Pawelek in the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/ Waco Tribune Herald, Jerry Larson)

View full size photo »

SBN Box Score :: TTU Box Score

The Result :: Just Okay: We've discussed this to a point, but it wasn't the best possible win. Perhaps this is something that should be expected coming off a game like the Oklahoma game, but it was just okay. I was happy as hell to get out of the Cowboys Stadium with a win and I hated that I was nervous about it for such a long period of time.

I was thinking of saving this thought for off-season thoughts, but I'll throw this out there now. Perhaps the thing that interests me the most about this team is the fact that we as a community have become that much more critical, and I mean that in the best possible way. I've always thought that Texas Tech has this stigma that Red Raider fans are apathetic in the sense that we're happy with occasional wins against various opponents, but the expectations of excellence were never really there. The days of going into a game with no expectation of a win and being completely disinterested with a loss are behind Red Raider fans. That's a good thing. I/we/DTN is now firmly behind expectations of excellence and I'm happy about that. That's not to say that the most difficult mornings for me personally are the mornings where I have to think of something worth-while to write after a loss and I think that's an indication that DTN and this program has arrived to an extent. That makes me happy (not the losses).

Storylines and MVP's after the jump.

The Storylines ::

About that Defense: At first blush, I thought the defense had a less than stellar game. For the game, the defense gave up 342 yards, only 176 yards in the 2nd half and of those 176 2nd half yards, 60 came on the last drive. The Bears had 3 plays that accounted for more than 20 yards, the first being the long pass to Gettis for 57 yards. I've only had time to watch the replay once, but on that play, it appeared that CB Jamar Wall was expecting help over the top and I believe that FS Franklin Mitchem just didn't get there. The 2nd big play was to Kendall Wright for 24 yards and I think this was scheme issue as LB Brian Duncan was trying to cover one of the fastest players on Baylor's team. It's hard to fault Duncan on this play as he's just not capable of covering a slot receiver. The 3rd big play was to Terrance Ganway, another situation where LB Marlon Williams was asked to cover him out of the flat and in open space (this is the play I'm not sure about). That first play led to Baylor's only touchdown, the second play was a play that ended in a Baylor field goal and the third play resulted in a punt. The point being here is that although the defense gave up 3 big plays, which accounted for 105 yards were the bulk of the Baylor offense. I've always hated how folks will take certain plays out of context of a game, but I'll do it now because it totally serves my purpose and you've got a defense that gave up 237 yards for the game, good for a 3.33 yards per play average. The big plays hurt the defense, but all 3 of these big plays were, at least in my opinion, were the result of bad match-ups and a bad play by a safety that's had a pretty good season.

Improved Line Play: By my count, this same set of offensive linemen have been together for 4 straight games, starting with the Kansas game. We've all talked about how with a better offensive line, the overall play will get better and other than the Oklahoma St. loss, that's been the case. That's not to say that this group didn't have some kinks to work out, including giving up 5 sacks against Kansas, all at the feet of QB Seth Doege, none with Potts; 1 against Oklahoma St.; 2 against Oklahoma; and 1 against Baylor. For a string of 7 halves, the offensive line only gave up 4 sacks and if there's a reason for the team's better play, that's a good place to start. Another indication that when the team runs the ball, good things happen: 32 carries for 105 yards rushing against KU; 14 carries for 50 against OSU; 35 carries for 161 yards; and 28 carries for 101 yards against Baylor. Run the ball and this team will have success.

Making Plays: I've always sort of thought that the hallmark of a good defense isn't necessarily the yards or the points, but the plays that the individuals make. For the 2nd year in a row, the defense is in the top 4 in the conference in sacks, 34.0 in 2008 and 40.0 in 2009. In 2007, the defense only mustered 26.0 sacks. Same goes for passes defended. Top 4 in the conference in passes defended as 2008 the team had 18 interceptions and 55 passes broken up (5.62 per game), in 2009 it was 8 interceptions and 68 passes broken up (6.33 per game), while in 2007 the defense had 10 interceptions and 55 passes broken up (5.00 per game). It may not seem evident over the course of time, but this defense has become more aggressive, especially in the secondary. The defensive play-makers are trending up, despite losing talent on at defensive end at in the secondary. The same could be said for Saturday's game where the defense broke up 4 passes, including one beautiful interception by Brent Nickerson, forced 3 fumbles and 4 sacks. That's a pretty good day at the office.

The Disappearance and Emergence of Receivers: This is probably going to be an offseason project, but I find it absolutely fascinating how certain roles have been completely reversed in some cases with the offense. In the early part of the year, the team was greatly dependent on guys like Detron Lewis and Tramain Swindall, but recently, it's been the emergence of Alexander Torres and Austin Zoualik with a fairly consistent bit of Lyle Leong mixed in for good measure. I can't give you an explanation, other than defenses may be keying on Lewis and Swindall or the thought that Lewis and Swindall may not be giving maximum effort in practice, but it's interesting. Be patient, I promise an much more comprehensive post after the season (this is absolutely a tease and intended to keep you guys around for a while).

The Guy That Matters Wasn't Happy: I didn't catch this until yesterday, but I noted in Chris Level's Twitter that Leach wasn't happy with the 20 points on Saturday as he ran the team through a padded practice on Sunday. Not only that, Leach pitted the first team against the first team and the work was spirited. I get the feeling that this perception that Leach is fairly easy on the team, but much like this community is changing there's this thought that Leach is changing as well. We all like not being satisfied with just being mediocre and the fact that Leach made the team practice on Sunday is certainly a good thing.

The Offensive Co-MVP's :: WR Lyle Leong and IR Austin Zouzalik: Zouzalik made some really nice grabs (7 for 92 yards), most of them over the middle of the field. Leong gets credit for making some really nice touchdown grabs (6 for 58 yards and 2 TD's).

The Defensive MVP :: DE Brandon Sharpe: It's fitting to think that he couldn't even get on the field last year, but finished the year as Texas Tech's single-season record holder for sacks.

The Special Teams MVP :: KR Eric Stephens: Another season long reward for his work on kickoff returns. You always like to see a player make up for a bad play as Stephens' 64 yard return late in the game was a huge game-changer. The rest of the Big 12 gets 3 more years of this guy.

Morning Border War Links and Discussion

Bill C. — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:00:25 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

about 1 month ago: Missouri's Danario Alexander, left, flies through the air after he is tripped up by Baylor's Jeremy Williams, right, during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

Browse more photos »

Consider this your pre-game discussion thread. Below are some gameday links and a discussion I had with the sports editor of the Lawrence Journal-World and a closeted stat-nerd, Jesse Newell.

First, the links:

The Trib: Bowl options remain wide open
The Trib (Dave Matter): Emptying the Bowl Notebook
The Missourian: Mangino could be coaching final game for Kansas
The Missourian: Senior Missouri football players pass down meaning of Kansas rivalry
The Missourian: Missouri's bowl possibilities still confusing
The Missourian: 10 things you didn't know about Kansas
10. Since 1912 the KU campus power plant steam whistle has announced the end of each hour's classes. The whistle has become a part of the eternal end of class struggle between long-winded professors and eager-to-leave students. Our favorite part? They call it the "Big Tooter." Hey, we said we were above jokes about boxed wine and street fights over girls. We said nothing about kindergarten toilet humor.
KC Star: Border War preview
KC Star: Parking information for Saturday's Border War game
KC Star: The old Blaine Gabbert is back for MU
KC Star: Danario Alexander towers over Big 12's other receivers
KC Star: KU has a lot on the line in Border War battle
KC Star: Todd Reesing era is nearly over, so who'll be KU's next QB?
KC Star: Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe ran different routes to success
KC Star: Gwinn Henry saw both sides of the Border War
KC Star (Jason Whitlock): There's no defense for Mangino's offense
KC Star (Campus Corner): Caring When Few Others Do
Post-Dispatch: Missouri, Kansas 'hate each other'
Post-Dispatch (Bryan Burwell): Mizzou has plenty to gain by beating KU
Post-Dispatch: MU is uniform in its focus on beating KU
Post-Dispatch: Mark Mangino a bully or motivator?
Post-Dispatch: Career year for Tiger
PowerMizzou: Tiger line leading the way back
PowerMizzou: Secondary concerns
PowerMizzou: Zo Knows Kansas
PowerMizzou: Jayhawk Insider: Five questions for Saturday
Daily Kansan: Kansas vs. Missouri game day
Lawrence Journal-World: Jayhawks: We are focused on Tigers
Lawrence Journal-World (Jesse Newell): Six wins might not be enough to get KU into a bowl
Topeka Capital-Journal: KU fans rally for football

---

Between Denverjhawk, KU Doug from the Roundtable, and Jesse Newell, we've had all sort of mostly cordial conversation with Jayhawks this week, and honestly, I feel rather dirty.

Bill C.:
1 - I mentioned in my BTBS preview that I can't take the loss of Toben Opurum too seriously because I think he and Jake Sharp are basically the same quality of back (Opurum a bit bigger, Sharp a bit faster). If Sharp is 100% healthy, is there any drop-off from Opurum to Sharp?

2 - Last year, Kansas absolutely assassinated Missouri with the dink-and-dunk pass and, when Mizzou's defense finally got tired in the second half (as much a factor Mizzou's offense not being able to stay on the field in the first half as much as anything, I think), KU burned them downfield too. I would have to figure the same type of offensive strategy will be on display this year, especially since that's the exact strategy that Baylor used to burn Mizzou late. Do you have any reason to believe KU won't try as many quick sideline-to-sideline passes this year?

3 - There have been all sorts of personnel shifts throughout the season in the KU secondary, leading to nine guys registering double-digit tackles. Where do you feel the secondary stands coming into the game? Playing its best? Less so?

Jesse Newell:
1. If Sharp is 100-percent healthy, then the two are about equal. The question to answer, though, is whether Sharp is healthy or not.

KU coach Mark Mangino has admitted that Sharp hasn't shown the same burst since Sharp's calf injury suffered in Week 3, and the numbers reflect that. In Sharp's carries before the injury he had 42 carries for 240 yards (5.7 average). In his carries since the injury, he has 53 carries for 168 yards (3.2 average). Obviously, KU playing tougher competition in the Big 12 also should be factored in, but that's still a steep drop-off.

I think Opurum was the better of the two backs recently, and where KU will miss him most is in third-and-short situations. He became a Marcus Allen of sorts for them over the past few weeks, as nearly every third-and-one, he came in to move the pile forward two yards for a first down. That kind of player is especially valuable against Missouri, as you have already talked about the importance of KU sustaining drives in the first half to tire MU's defense in the second half. The Jayhawks used that gameplan in 2008, and it certainly paid dividends for them late.

The simple fact is this, though: This year, KU has never committed to the run. I don't know why it is, but KU usually abandons its running game early whether it's working or not. If MU's defense shuts down KU's runs early, most likely KU will abandon the running game completely just a few possessions in.

2. I think you're right on with your assessment. Consider this as well: In KU's loss to MU in 2007, the Tigers held the ball for 37 minutes, 25 seconds. In KU's win last year, the Jayhawks held the ball 34 minutes exactly. The MU game notes also show that since 2005, when the Tigers have the ball 31 minutes or longer in a game, they are 14-0.

I think KU's only chance of winning this game will be to try to control the football to wear out MU's defense. KU hasn't been able to do much to stop MU's offense in the last two years (other than forcing turnovers), so limiting possessions might not be a bad idea, either. KU's biggest disadvantage to playing this strategy is what I listed above: Not only has KU been ineffective running the football lately, the Jayhawks also have shown no interest in committing themselves to try to run the football.

The short answer to your question is this: Yes, I would expect lots of dinking and dunking to happen in this year's game as well. When those MU corners start to roll up a bit, though, look for KU to start to take some shots down the field, especially with big-play specialist Dezmon Briscoe.

3. KU's defense as a whole peaked about three weeks ago when it put together solid performances against Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Kansas State. Some of the scores don't reflect it, mostly because KU's offense went through a stretch of 10 turnovers in 10 quarters and started giving away points to the opposition. The defense has fallen hard back to earth in the last two weeks with horrible efforts against Nebraska (bad offense) and Texas (good offense).

The KU secondary merry-go-round has been interesting to say the least. Just when I thought KU had something good going for it a few weeks ago, the carousel started up again and more players were moved in and out of the mix.

I'd say at this point, the secondary is actually playing some of its worst football of the year. NU has just three passes of 35 or more yards in their first five Big 12 games, and KU allowed four, 35-plus yard passes from Zac Lee to Niles Paul alone. KU's corners couldn't do much of anything right against UT last week, either, as a huge cushion allowed some big gains underneath, while the Longhorns also hit the Jayhawks deep for 68- and 38-yard TD passes. Anthony Davis, in his return to the lineup, has been burnt deep consistently, and Chris Harris, though he's had a nice year, was playing way too far off receivers last week. Darrell Stuckey has had a good — but not great — year, and KU's corners aren't particularly tall, either. I'd say it's a pretty good time for MU's pass-happy offense to be taking on the KU secondary.

Here are a few questions for you.

1. I haven't been able to watch Danario Alexander much in the last few weeks. What has been the main reason for his unbelievable success in the last month? KU's corners aren't the tallest, but they've also given up their share of big plays. Alexander seems to have a rare blend of size and speed, so would you say KU should be more concerned with him going above the corners in jump-ball situations or beating KU's corners down the field?

2. Derrick Washington should be able to play against KU after suffering a concussion. Is this significant for MU? Or do you believe the Tigers will mostly stick to their passing game against the Jayhawks?

3. Again, I haven't seen much of the Tigers lately, so what is the scouting report on Blaine Gabbert? What are his greatest strengths? What have other defenses done to slow him down? In what situations is he least effective?

4. I expect KU to pass quite a bit in this game, so can you evaluate how MU's pass defense has performed lately? Who are a couple MU defensive players that have emerged as of late?

Bill C.:
1. The thing about Danario is, he's been so good over the past few weeks that he has ended up replacing both Jeremy Maclin AND Chase Coffman. He can beat defenders on the long routes, and he can take a swing pass 70 yards. His yards after catch have been staggering. His 63-yard TD against Iowa State came on about a 2-yard sideline route. His 80-yarder against K-State was on about a 10-yard route. Meanwhile, his 54-yarder against K-State was caught at the 5. I try to avoid hyperbole, but he has started to look more and more like Randy Moss in recent weeks, with great all-around ability and ridiculously long strides. Knowing what he has fought through (a broken wrist early in 2007, followed by a torn-up knee in the Big 12 title game, which required three surgeries and about 18 months of recovery time to get back to 100%), it has been extremely heart-warming to see him come this far. And if he can duplicate what he did against KU in 2007, he could send KU home a loser.

2. Derrick Washington is easily MU's most physical back. He really hasn't shown the top-end speed that he showed in the first half of last season, but if it's 3rd-and-2, I'd much rather D-Wash be getting the handoff instead of De'Vion Moore or Kendial Lawrence, both of whom are relatively capable speed backs but aren't bangers. As I mentioned in the preview, Tony Temple's success against KU in 2007 was a very underrated facet of MU's win, and since MU's running game was all but nonexistent for three quarters in last year's game, having Washington is certainly a good thing. KU's D-line has been statistically unimpressive, and if MU can run the ball well, they up their chances of winning considerably.

3. Gabbert's pocket presence is still a work in progress, but he has shown massive improvement in the recent weeks. And for the season, taking the sprained ankle into account (he was not even half the QB against NU, OSU, and Texas), his numbers have potentially been as or more impressive than Chase Daniel's were in 2006. I think KU's best strategy against him will be to confuse him. Mix coverages, mix how many you rush, etc. He has improved by leaps and bounds since the Bowling Green game, when BGSU dropped seven into coverage and he started rushing his throws, feeling a pass rush when there was none, but that's still his biggest weakness. He's got the prettiest deep ball you'll ever see, and if KU's secondary suffers lapses, they'll pay.

4. MU's secondary is extremely matchup- and injury-dependent. They handle bigger, more physical WRs pretty well (the first two quarters against OSU's Hubert Anyiam aside), but they are vulnerable to pure speed. Baylor's Kendall Wright and David Gettis are only decent in terms of route-running and hands, but they are burners, and they burned Mizzou both short and deep. Iowa State had some early luck with the dink-and-dunk passes (Mizzou's defensive philosophy has always been to give large cushions to WRs and allow the short pass, but avoid getting burned deep), but the success only lasted a while because their WRs weren't fast enough to burn Mizzou deep when the Tigers adjusted. This is why Dez Briscoe scares me much more than Kerry Meier does, despite what Meier did at the end of last year's game. Briscoe can get behind them.

Regarding injuries, Mizzou's two biggest breakdowns of the season, in the fourth quarter against Nebraska and the second half against Baylor, both happened when Carl Gettis was injured and on the bench. Gettis is not quite the all-conference caliber CB we thought we had a couple of years ago, but he is by far Mizzou's most steady DB, and with him on the field, Mizzou's secondary is much less vulnerable to breakdowns. Plus, safety Jasper Simmons was injured against Baylor too, which didn't help, as he's been by far Mizzou's best safety. Mizzou's secondary isn't great, and the Briscoe-Meier combo still scares the daylights out of me, but as with most teams, if they are full-strength, they are much, much better.

My turn!

1. You've outlined how KU might not even make a bowl if they win on Saturday ... with that in mind, where do you think they're head is at heading into the game? Or maybe here's the better question: I expect to see KU's A-game on display ... but what exactly is their A-game? Top 15 caliber? Top 25?

2. From what you do know about Mizzou, what scares you the most compared to what you know about KU's strengths and weaknesses?

Jesse Newell:
1. I think KU's players believe that if they win Saturday, they will go to a bowl game. With that mind-set, I would expect to see KU's four senior captains (Reesing, Sharp, Meier, Stuckey) literally playing for their careers (and also remember, this is most likely Dezmon Briscoe's last game, too). Those guys have been a part of the greatest stretch in KU football's history, and I think they know that their previous reputation might be hurt a bit if they can't get to six wins and a bowl game this season. Whether they like Mangino or not, I would expect these guys to be playing for themselves on Saturday. I'm with you: I don't see this as a game where KU's players come out uninspired or unmotivated.

You pose a good question about how good KU's "A" game is. I will say this: KU has been a bit unfortunate in that when its offense has played well, its defense has stunk, and when its defense has played well, its offense has stunk. If KU put its best two units together this season, I would say that a top-20 team wouldn't be a stretch, but once again, that hasn't happened in the last nine games, so I'm certainly not expecting it now.

Todd Reesing went through a tough spell mid-season, but he actually looked pretty good last week against Texas. KU's defense looked solid three weeks ago, but it hasn't played well in the Jayhawks' two games since. For the third straight year, I'd expect a high-scoring game. Even if the Jayhawks have an "A" game defensively, they still probably will struggle to keep the Tigers under four touchdowns.

2. This one's easy: Danario Alexander's ability to break off big plays.

The last three weeks, KU's defense has allowed 17 plays of 20-plus yard plays to opponents. The last two weeks, KU has given up seven, 20-yard-or-more passing plays to opponents.

As I mentioned before, both NU and UT made a habit of picking on KU's cornerbacks the last two weeks. KU's cornerbacks have been routinely beaten deep, but they've also struggled when taller receivers have simply gone over the top of them to bring in receptions. Looks like Alexander can do either. Unless KU's defense tries something exotic to shut down Alexander, I'd say he's a lock for 100 yards and has a decent shot at another 200-yard receiving game.

One more ...

1. I've heard a lot of people say KU has more to play for in this game. However, how would MU's view of its season change if the Tigers were to lose to KU? How would the MU fans' perception of the season change?

Bill C.:
I'm probably not the best Mizzou fan to ask about that, as I try to never let one game impact how I view the season as a whole. Last year's loss to KU was really annoying, but Mizzou still won ten games and the North division, so it didn't really impact me much beyond the annoyance at the moment.

This season, I had three main goals for Mizzou: win the North again, go to a bowl, and with so much youth playing key roles (there have been between 25 and 35 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep all season), the final goal was to simply not mess up the program's trajectory for 2010 and 2011. The first goal went out of the window with the fourth quarter collapse (sans Carl Gettis) in the monsoon against Nebraska, but the other two goals have been accomplished no matter what happens at Arrowhead.

That said, I fully accept that I'm not the typical Mizzou fan. I saw last night on other message boards where some fans think this is easily the biggest game in the series in quite a while (no memory of 2007 apparently) and they would take a loss to Illinois next year for a win over KU this year...which, to me, is absolutely, positively insane.

I guess what matters most, however, is that the players and coaches very much remember last year and have brought it up multiple times. KU has more to play for, but I do think Mizzou shows up ready to roll.

My final question: I have a friend from Independence who constantly mourns the fact that Paul Rudd went to KU because "he seems like such a perfect Mizzou guy". Discuss.

(Subquestion: what Mizzou alum would have made the best KU alum?)

Jesse Newell:
I just hope Paul being a KU alum doesn't ruin the hilarious parts he has in movies. KU also can claim Mandy Patinkin! (My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die!)

Subquestion: As a KU alum, I would have to say that ridiculously good-looking men attend KU, thus making Brad Pitt the obvious choice (I'm not sure he graduated, but I'm still counting him anyways).

Bill C.:
I must say, one of the most entertaining parts of the MU-KU Gameday in 2007 was the "Famous Alums" section...they had Don Johnson versus Brad Pitt, I believe...but hey, you've got Jason Sudeikis repping KU every Saturday night, so that's something...and yeah, Rudd must be all sorts of funny if we enjoy him despite his, um, obvious flaws...

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 11.26.09

Seth C — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 11:52:59 -0000

Happy Thanksgiving! We're keeping this short and sweet today so we can all get to turkey and fixings. Have a great day and I can certainly say that I'm thankful for all of you guys and gals for visiting DTN and making it such a great place to talk Texas Tech.

I'm probably going to be out for the next couple of days, but I've got a few things scheduled, including Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win, Prediction Time and the Open Game Day Thread on Saturday.

Briles Would Rather Be In Waco: FWST's Dwain Price writes that Baylor coach Art Briles doesn't sound too excited to be playing at Cowboys Stadium:

"And I hate to be that way,'' Briles said. "We've got a job to do and our job is to go out there and win the football game, and it really doesn't matter where it's played or any of those conditions.

"I wish I could say really it excites me (to play in the Cowboys Stadium). But I know once the game gets going, then all that's out the window and you just concentrate on what's going on.''

Price also writes that the Bears won't mail it in this week despite not qualifying for a bowl. Here's Baylor QB Nick Florence:

"We're playing for a lot,'' Baylor quarterback Nick Florence said. " We're playing for Baylor football, we're playing for each other, we're playing for pride.

"It's unfortunate the bowl is out of the way, but we've still got a lot to play for and to lose out there.''

Baylor Bear and Big 12 Links: LAJ's Adam Zuvanich has a short preview of all of today's games . . . Baylor's LB Joe Pawelek and C J.D. Walton will play in the Shrine Game . . . LAJ's Adam Zuvanich writes that WR Kendall Wright takes on a number of offensive roles with Baylor, including throwing the ball . . . Rivals' Olin Buchanan with a preview of this weekends' Big 12 games . . .

Tairu's Tough Road: LAJ's Courtney Linehan has an excellent article about the many travels of G David Tairu and how he ended up in Lubbock:

It’s Thanksgiving break and the building is empty except for women’s basketball players lifting in the weight room and a few arena staff working in offices upstairs. Tairu practices driving to the basket, each sound hanging in the empty air: the squeak of his sole as he plants and takes off, the grunt as he releases each shot, the soft thud as his feet return to the hardwood and the gentle swoosh as the ball slides through the net.

Tairu won’t be the only Texas Tech basketball player to get in a few extra shots today. Little more than a dozen hours have passed since the team landed back in Lubbock after defeating Stephen F. Austin on Tuesday night, and already several members have come through the gym.

Tairu’s reason for being here, though, is so simple his coaches struggle to describe it. It’s why he is always at the arena on days Tech doesn’t practice, why he patiently added an extra four years to his journey from high school to Division I basketball.

He uses a Bible verse to sum it up, quoting Psalms, 46:10: "Be still and know that I am God."

To say that this is a must-read article would not give it enough credit. Knowing this, I now am absolutely certain that I think the offense should run through Tairu.

Crunching the Numbers :: Baylor Bears Edition

Seth C — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:00:13 -0000

Texas Tech Red Raiders
(7-4, 4-3)

vs.

Baylor Bears
(4-7, 1-6)

Game Information:
Date: November 28, 2009 :: Time: 5:00 p.m. CST :: Weather: Dallas, TX
TV: FSN :: Radio: Affiliates :: Game Cast: Fox Sports

A little short on time due to the holidays. Help me help the rest of you and post any of your initial thoughts in the comments.

CATEGORY	STATISTIC (NCAA RANK, CONF. RANK)	WINNER
TTU Pass Offense vs. BU Pass Defense	390.82 (2, 1) 223.00 (72, 6)
TTU Rush Offense vs. BU Rush Defense	79.36 (114, 12) 185.91 (100, 12)
BU Pass Offense vs. TTU Pass Defense	242.73 (39, 7) 222.45 (70, 5)
BU Rush Offense vs. TTU Rush Defense	100.27 (108, 10) 126.91 (40, 7)
TTU Scoring Offense vs. BU Scoring Defense	38.18 (7, 2) 27.91 (82, 10)
BU Scoring Offense vs. TTU Scoring Defense	21.45 (97, 11) 22.55 (42, 5)

Five Initial Thoughts

One :: Staying Grounded: When I looked at the stats last week, I thought that the Red Raiders would have to play the game of their lives against Oklahoma. The same could be said this week and I hope the team stays grounded. It can happen to you.

Two :: Still Effective Passing: Despite the slew of injuries at the Baylor quarterback position, freshman Nick Florence has still been respectable throwing the ball. Florence busted out for 427 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions at Missouri. He had a rough week against TAMU, but he's more than capable.

Three :: Struggling to Run: The Bears are not quite as bad as Texas Tech, but they're the closest opponent in terms of rushing offense, checking in for 10th in the conference and 100 yards a game. It's been a hodge-podge of runners, including Jay Finley, Jarred Salubi, Terrance Ganaway and Kendall Wright rush the ball.

Four :: Wright Way: WR Kendall Wright has been a bit up-and-down this year and he's averaging 65.4 receiving yards a game, which is good for 9th in the Big 12.

Five :: Defensive Leaders: LB Joe Pawelek and S Jordan Lake are respectively 3rd and 7th in the conference in tackles. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see both of these guys make some plays this week.

Baylor Preview

Beergut — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:31:24 -0000

I'm sure there are some Aggies who are looking at Baylor's 4-6 record so far this season and thinking they'll be no problem for us on Saturday. I'm sure there are some fans who think because Robert Griffin is no longer leading Baylor's offense, they aren't much of a threat to beat us in College Station. We can't afford that kind of overconfidence. We're not good enough to overlook anyone.

The most important thing we need to do against Baylor is experience some offensive success early and jump out to an early lead. Baylor's defense isn't incredible, but they haven't given up an offensive touchdown in the last three games in the second half. This means that their hafltime adjustments are working, and it also means that they don't quit despite being behind.

Baylor's offense is led by redshirt freshman Nick Florence, who has poassed for 1609 yards, 6 TDs, and 7 interceptions since taking over for Robert Griffin. Florence is a decent quarterback, despite his numbers, who can hurt us through the air and on the ground. Getting pressure on Florence and sacking him a few times is imperative. Baylor's passing game depends heavily on WR screens and bubble screens, which is the bane of our defense's existence. We need to be disciplined, get off the blocking receiver, and make the tackle. It would also help if we didn't play zone all game, but that is a scheme issue.

The two Baylor players who worry me the most are wide receivers Kendall Wright and David Gettis. Both are terrific athletes who make plays with the ball in their hands. Baylor will use Wright on Jet sweeps to stretch the defense laterally. RB Jay Finley isn't a burner, but he is effective. He ripped us apart last year in Waco.

Defensively, LB Joe Pawelek is the main person we need to be aware of. Pawelek leads the team in tackles, sacks, and is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss. He is simply a playmaker. One Baylor defender who I think is overrated is safety Jordan Lake, who I think we can take advantage of in the passing game. I think Lake is overrated in his coverage abilities, and Uzoma Nwachukwu and Jeff Fuller should be able to beat him deep, assuming we are able to get the ball to them. up about 167 yards per game rushing, so we should be able to run the ball on them, especially if we can block Pawelek, and go off-tackle. Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray should be able to have a good day.

If we do what we're supposed to do, we should be able to beat Baylor, earn our sixth win, and attain bowl eligibility. We need to start out fast on offense, put some points on the board, and put pressure on their offense to keep up with us in the early going. This will allow us to run the ball, run the clock, and control the game in the second half. If we do what we need to do, we will win the game.

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

As always, it is much more fun to analyze a win, isn't it?

	Mizzou (38)	K-State (12)
Close %	81.2%
Field Position %	36.0%	57.5%
Leverage %	72.0%	69.9%

TOTAL
EqPts	30.9	13.5
Close Success Rate	55.6%	41.8%
Close PPP	0.61	0.18
Close S&P	1.167	0.601

RUSHING
EqPts	10.0	4.4
Close Success Rate	50.0%	29.4%
Close PPP	0.37	0.13
Close S&P	0.870	0.425
Line Yards/carry	3.94	2.75

PASSING
EqPts	20.8	9.1
Close Success Rate	59.3%	61.9%
Close PPP	0.77	0.27
Close S&P	1.364	0.885
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	66.7%	45.1%
PPP	0.76	0.12
S&P	1.430	0.567

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	28.6%	40.9%
PPP	0.24	0.35
S&P	0.528	0.755

TURNOVERS
Number	0	3
Turnover Pts	0.0	16.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+16.9	-16.9

Q1 S&P	0.957	0.493
Q2 S&P	1.197	0.573
Q3 S&P	1.756	0.742
Q4 S&P	1.190	0.598

1st Down S&P	1.639	0.574
2nd Down S&P	0.692	0.622
3rd Down S&P	0.757	0.506

Projected Pt. Margin	+34.3	-34.3
Actual Pt. Margin	+26	-26

Quick reactions...

Kansas State can thank special teams for keeping this game at a smaller margin (26 instead of the projected 34). With solid kick returns and only decent Mizzou punting, they ran well over half of their plays from Mizzou's side of the field, which put a lot of pressure on Missouri's defense not to break down, especially considering how KSU thrives on the "geology" style of offense (pressure + time). Eventually, Mizzou could have worn down, given in, and allowed a couple of killer touchdowns, but they did not. Meanwhile, barely over one-third of Mizzou's plays were run from KSU's side of the field, but thanks to Danario Alexander, that didn't really matter. With #81, Mizzou was more capable of scoring touchdowns from their own side of the field than KSU was in Mizzou territory, and that clearly made the difference in the game.
This game really was decided by explosiveness. Missouri had it, K-State didn't. Mizzou was content to allow a ridiculously high passing success rate to KSU in exchange for not giving up any big plays and making KSU drive the length of the field. How many times did KSU convert a 3rd-and-6 with exactly a 6-yard pass? Plenty. And how many touchdowns did KSU score? Zero. Watching Mizzou allow huge cushions on opposing wide receivers, especially on third down, is amazingly frustrating to watch. But in the last two weeks, we've seen why they do it. Without two long bombs, Baylor doesn't beat Missouri no matter how many short passes they complete. If Missouri can make you drive the length of the field without bombs or missed tackles, their run defense will make it very hard for you to convert those drives into touchdowns instead of field goals.
Missouri's 1.639 S&P on first downs really tells you all you need to know about how well David Yost and company did in their offensive game-planning last week. They nailed it. Mizzou was only decent on second and third downs, but first downs are the most likely "straight from the script" down, and Mizzou was wonderfully successful there. Meanwhile, they completely stuffed KSU's offensive gameplan as well, limiting them to a 0.574 S&P on first downs. Think about that--Mizzou was almost three times more successful on first down than KSU. That's how you win road games by 26.
That, and winning the turnover battle by 17 points certainly helps, huh?

"This Team Can't Score in the Second Half"

Football's the funniest sport to analyze because we are dealing with such laughably small sample sizes. Take any team from the NBA (or Major League Baseball). With a 12-game sample I could show you a squad that is great in the first half, or terrible in the second half, or terrible on the boards, or great shooting. Then, with a different 12-game sample, I should show you a team that is terrible in the first half, great in the second half, great on the boards, or terrible shooting. Figuring out what is true and what is within the margin of error is a crap shoot when the margin of error is gigantic.

What this means is, narratives form and disintegrate in less than a month's time. The first month of the season, Missouri had a slow-starting offense that was impeccable in the second half. A month later, they were outstanding in the first half and horribly inept in the second ("HALFTIME ADJUSTMENTS!!!!"). We all saw the graphic Versus threw up in the third quarter, showing how Missouri had not yet scored a touchdown in the second half of a conference game. And then they scored three touchdowns in the second half. And like that, the narrative died. At this point in the season, Mizzou has had three major letdowns in the second half (OSU, Colorado, Baylor...Nebraska and Texas don't count, as they were no worse in the second half as in the first half) and four games in which the second half offense was as good as (Illinois, Nevada, KSU) or better than (Bowling Green) the first half offense. Rest in peace, "No Halftime Adjustments" narrative.

(Major disclaimer: I half-mock the "halftime adjustments" meme, but I don't want to pretend that there wasn't something going on to send the team into a second-half funk. Gary Pinkel was worried enough about it that he brought in Lorenzo Williams to give a Thursday pep talk and let Sean Weatherspoon do all the talking at halftime in Manhattan. He knew something needed to be done, and he deserves to be commended for trying to address the issue. Did those pep talks have anything to do with the team's better performance? Possibly, possibly not. We obviously don't really know, but it certainly didn't hurt, huh?)

So now that we're done with five-sixths of the season, we can see the true narrative for this offense: 1) they've got a sophomore quarterback whose pocket presence is improving by the week, but still has plenty to learn, 2) they've got an All-American caliber receiver who can score from any point on the field at any time, and 3) they are LOADED with youth, and therefore maddeningly inconsistent. Blaine Gabbert? Sophomore. Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore, and Kendial Lawrence? Junior, sophomore, true freshman. Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, and (yes) Andrew Jones? Sophomore, sophomore, sophomore. Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, and Dan Hoch? Sophomore, sophomore, sophomore. Heading into this season, Missouri's offense had about roughly 101 career starts (Kurtis Gregory 28, Jared Perry 20ish, Derrick Washington 14, Tim Barnes 14, Elvis Fisher 14, Danario Alexander 11, and I may be forgetting some here and there). Now? 211 career starts. They will lose Alexander, Gregory, and Perry ... and that's it. Yes, we're leaning heavily on Danario right now, and justifiably so, but it's amazing what experience can do. For no single reason, you just become more consistent (and your offensive coordinator becomes a lot smarter) over time with this little turnover.

What does this mean for the rest of the season? Who the hell knows? With three games now remaining, odds are in favor of at least one more stinker and at least one more explosion. Figuring out the games in which those will happen is impossible.

Three Positives

Danario Alexander. It's predictable, and you could have made this judgment without any statistical analysis whatsoever, but he just has to lead off this list, no? He has upped his game in the last couple of weeks, but his season-long output has just been insane. He will absolutely end up with the Mizzou single season yardage record, locking it down as soon as his first or second catch this coming Saturday, but he needs 22 catches to top Jeremy Maclin's single season record. At 7.3 per game, that's certainly within the realm of possibility, but he'll probably need one more big game to lock it down. And who's betting against him at this point?

You just have to hope and pray that the leadership-by-example that he is showing right now is rubbing off on guys like Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Rolandis Woodland, and T.J. Moe, as he will not be around to carry this offense next year.
Missouri defensive line. Lost amid Alexander's recent surge is the performance Dominique Hamilton has come up with recently. He and Jaron Baston have led what has just been a superb rushing defense over these past few weeks, and if you are ranking the North's best defensive linemen for next season, Hamilton is almost starting to make a case for the #3 slot behind Jared Crick and Aldon Smith. The future is extremely bright for the Missouri defensive line, with Hamilton and Jacquies Smith making plays as sophomores and Aldon Smith becoming an all-conference level performer as a redshirt freshman.
First Downs. I already referenced it above, but against a Bill Snyder-led coaching staff, Mizzou's staff put together virtually perfect offensive and defensive gameplans, and it shined through in the first down performance on both offense and defense. Mizzou's offensive is still only average at best on passing downs, but with such great success on first-and-10, they faced minimal awkward situations.

(And because we won, a fourth positive...)
Offensive Line. No sacks and a 3.94 line yardage average? Wow. KSU's defensive line isn't great, but that was still a dominant performance.

Three Negatives

Field Position. Iowa State doesn't have the return threats that Kansas State and Baylor had, and that will help, but Missouri has done itself no favors whatsoever in the field position battle this year. Mizzou is solid in a lot of special teams aspects, but kick coverage has not been one of them. Kick returns and ill-timed three-and-outs by the offense led to K-State's domination in this category last Saturday, and while the Mizzou defense responded time and again, you're just adding to the degree of difficulty by letting this happen, especially on the road. Thanks to Danario Alexander, Mizzou more than overcame their field position deficiencies, but even going back to the Oklahoma State game this has been a consistent issue.
Passing Downs (Offense). With experience should come improvement in this category, but it is certainly still a lingering issue on offense this year. We were very spoiled by Chase Daniel's proficiency on passing downs, and we should see the numbers improve as Blaine Gabbert gets more and more comfortable in the pocket and the coaching staff takes the reins off of the play-calling, but for now it is a well-defined weakness.
Passing Downs (Defense). KSU's 40.9% success rate on Passing Downs was very frustrating, but as I mentioned above, we know why they allowed that--the coverage cushions set up a series of easy conversions, and against KSU that was fine because they were not capable of running the ball and putting the ball in the endzone, but while it made strategic sense, it was annoying to watch.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

KSU indeed couldn't run, and while Aldon Smith didn't have a Colorado-esque game, Mizzou still won easily.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Mizzou had a 1.430 S&P on standard downs. 'Nuff said.

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds.

It ended up being about a 50-50 proposition whether kicking it out of bounds would have been smarter than kicking it deep, and while it was a relief that he never broke a big return (at least, not without an illegal block bringing it back), he was still KSU's best threat for winning this game, and his presence still resulted in a massive field position advantage for the WIldcats. Again, fortunately for Mizzou, Iowa State has nobody this dangerous.

Summary

Winner, winner. Not much else to say at this point. This has been a bit of a frustrating season, simply because of the youth on the display and the inconsistency that comes with that, but Saturday's win was quite satsifying, not only because it was on the road or because it was against Bill Snyder, but because it signified that this team's long-term trajectory has not been damaged by the loss to Baylor or the overall poor performance against the Big 12 South. Missouri still looks beyond dangerous in 2010 and 2011, and "Don't screw up future seasons" really was one of the main goals for 2009.

Five Things to Watch Against Baylor

GhostofBigRoy — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:40:23 -0000

by Harry Cabluck - AP

View full size photo »

How does Cody Johnson respond to his start? Last week was supposed to be Johnson's first collegiate start, but Fozzy Whittaker ended up coming out with the ones. Ultimately, it doesn't really matter which player steps out on the field first -- the more important aspect is how many carries a back receives. Mack Brown was talking about Johnson receiving 15-20 carries this weekend again to in an attempt to gain an understanding of how much he can improve or wear down the defense as the game goes on.

As mentioned earlier in the week, the problem is that Johnson doesn't really fit what Texas does offensively that well. When he's in the game, teams aren't going to be worried about him splitting out wide as a receiver or gashing them with flare passes into the flat. Teams now also load the box a bit more or at least anticipate run when the big back comes into the game. Johnson also isn't a great fit in the horizontal running scheme Texas employs, being better served getting his shoulders squared to the line of scrimmage and heading downhill, much as he does in the short-yardage situations in which he excels.

This weekend, then, will be a test run for how well Johnson does with the current scheme and an effort to determine which plays are successful with him. Much like the Colorado game, Mack Brown may be stubborn about trying to run the football, so it will be interesting to see if Texas only runs their basic plays, or if they try to incorporate some misdirection as well, which has been pretty absent the last several weeks.

Can Texas exploit the right side of the Baylor line? As kriess does an excellent job of pointing out in his Baylor offensive preview, the right side of the Baylor line -- right guard James Barnard and right tackle Phillip Blake -- are two of the weaker members of the Bear unit, with Barnard struggling in pass protection and Blake coming in undersized at 275 pounds. Barnard in particular could be in for a long day matched up against Lamarr Houston shooting gaps and generally causing mayhem. After his incredible performance against UCF indicating that he is now completely comfortable -- as he has been for a while now -- and able to dominate the interior of the line, look for Houston to have another strong game.

Blake could be in for a long day as well. While he does have good enough feet to keep Sergio Kindle, Sam Acho, et al. from beating him on the edge, watch out for the Longhorn defensive ends using their speed-to-power move, Kindle's best, or simply bull rushing Blake back towards the quarterback. Baylor will probably try to run behind the larger left side of the line, but if they try to run right, the Longhorns will almost surely stuff those plays.

Can the secondary shut down David Gettis and Kendall Wright? The enduring image of the Baylor game last season was Kendall Wright running right past Ben Wells -- that was not an easy thing to recover from for Wells, as that was pretty much his first impression he made on the Texas fanbase. Uh yeah, no do-overs on first impressions, Ben.

In fact, Gettis and Wright may be the most talented pair of receivers Texas has faced this season and the only two players who provide a significant offensive threat to the Longhorns. After a mostly disappointing career, Gettis has come on late in his senior season, racking up more than 100 yards in each of the last two games, including seven catches for 124 yards against Nebraska. Gettis has also scored his first touchdown since his freshman season.

As for Wright, he may have been one of the most underrated players in the 2008 recruiting class, though perhaps the fact that he played quarterback in high school had something to do with that. Wright isn't a big receiver at about 6-0 and 180 pounds, but he has excellent speed and is dangerous in the open field. Last week against Missouri he had 10 catches for 149 yards and two touchdowns.

The Baylor offense is designed around getting their playmakers the ball in the space, so the Longhorns secondary will not only have to cover well, but also tackle well and fight through blockers on the screen plays Art Briles likes to dial up. Missouri missed 18 tackles last week, resulting in an extra 200 yards or so for the Baylor offense, putting solid tackling at a premium for Texas.

Can Colt McCoy post big numbers to help his Heisman campaign? Since most of the drama is gone from the season after the victory over Oklahoma State, the Longhorns simply have to take care of business until the Big 12 championship game, while putting up some style points along the way to keep the human voters happy, as there is little Texas can do to make the computers happy except win. The big storyline, then, is whether or not McCoy can make a late run at the Heisman trophy.

Last week was a good start to re-invigorate his campaign after the poor performance against Oklahoma in front of a national audience knocked him down in the standings. Even for a successful quarterback like McCoy, 470 yards is enough to get the attention of the most skeptical of voters. To have a chance, McCoy needs to keep putting up video game numbers, while keeping his interceptions in check. A highlight reel running play or two might help as well, anything to get on SportsCenter at this point.

The other aspect that will help his candidacy is his run on the all-time wins record for quarterbacks. With a win over Baylor, McCoy will tie David Greene for most all-time wins and a win over Kansas will break the record with several games left to create even more space. It's the type of story that national media outlets will eventually pick up and will help McCoy gain notice.

Can Longhorns fans making the trip to Waco make more noise than the Baylor fans? Yes, I'm now stretching here. Really, this could have been one thing to watch against Baylor -- the Longhorns putting their usual beatdown on the Bears. But hey, I'm trying not to pack this in like John Werner did in his preview for us.

So, back to the point -- Texas fans traditionally travel well to Waco, generally making up a sizable contingent. With Robert Griffin done for the season and whatever hopes Baylor fans harbored coming into the season completely squashed, there could be a ton of Baylor fans dressed as empty seats in this game. Mack Brown specifically asked fans to take over Floyd Casey stadium, since there are few things more beautiful than hearing a heart Texas Fight in an opposing team's home stadium.

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

---

Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:15:17 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Sometimes no matter how closely we look at the data, the simplest explanations still end up making the most sense. I think that's the case in explaining Missouri's defensive struggles on Saturday. The offense, however, gets more baffling with more thought. That said, if you are ever inclined to spend the time it takes to read one of these posts, I recommend doing it this time. Lots to discuss, lots to explain. And if the numbers make you go blind, just skip to the words.

	Baylor (40)	Mizzou (32)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	52.9%	51.3%
Leverage %	61.4%	65.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.8	33.0
Close Success Rate	44.3%	48.7%
Close PPP	0.54	0.43
Close S&P	0.540	0.434

RUSHING
EqPts	7.6	4.2
Close Success Rate	33.3%	38.1%
Close PPP	0.31	0.20
Close S&P	0.648	0.583
Line Yards/carry	3.08	2.62

PASSING
EqPts	30.2	28.7
Close Success Rate	50.0%	52.7%
Close PPP	0.66	0.52
Close S&P	1.157	1.050
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.7% / 4.4%	3.0% / 13.6%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	41.9%	56.0%
PPP	0.42	0.47
S&P	0.841	1.030

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	48.2%	34.6%
PPP	0.73	0.36
S&P	1.208	0.711

TURNOVERS
Number	0	0
Turnover Pts	0.0	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	0.0	0.0

Q1 S&P	0.953	1.222
Q2 S&P	0.856	1.244
Q3 S&P	1.063	0.543
Q4 S&P	1.057	0.649

1st Down S&P	0.783	0.890
2nd Down S&P	1.048	1.144
3rd Down S&P	0.265	0.611

Projected Pt. Margin	+4.8	-4.8
Actual Pt. Margin	+8	-8

"Halftime Adjustments"

We all enjoy simple explanations, and because of that the whole theory of halftime adjustments has become very prevalent. It's how we explained the entire 1998 Missouri season (in which Mizzou led every game at halftime, yet went 8-4). However, as Smart Football and related sites have explained quite well, the concept doesn't really hold water.

The other coaching bogeyman is the aura surrounding "in-game adjustments" or "halftime adjustments," both of which are supposed to be the "hallmarks of good coaching." This is another thing where there’s a kernel of truth surrounding by a lot of speculation. Yes, a good coach will not do the same thing over and over again if it isn’t working, or if the other team has figured it out. And yes, coaching a game involves an ongoing process of what the other team is doing (this is one reason why I think, even if adjustments are part of the game, "halftime adjustments" are very much overrated). But if you want to see a bad coach then I’ll show you one who tries to "adjust" to everything the other team is doing with new schemes and ideas built-in midgame. Instead, teams with good coaching pretty much run only things within their plan — i.e. stuff they had practiced during the week. Indeed, much of what fans or commentators will pick out as an "adjustment" was something in the original gameplan that just didn’t get called until the second half because of the flow of the game.

So if this is true, then what the hell could be the cause of Missouri's very obvious second half offensive troubles? Part of the answer may lie in the next paragraph from that link:

While playcalling is definitely overhyped (hey, the talking heads get paid to talk about something), preparation is extremely important, and much of a gameplan involves contingency planning. It also means that the "base stuff" should have the counters built in, the constraint plays are already there, and the defensive adjustments are easy to make because they are a part of the system.

This offseason, we heard a lot about how the coaching staff had stripped things down in the playbook a bit, allowing Blaine Gabbert to grow into his role and not giving him everything they gave Chase Daniel last year. Is it possible that Missouri's offense is a bit too stripped down and not enough "counters" are built into the system? I honestly don't know. When I'm watching the game from the stands (and from the sideline view, no less, so it's hard to glean too much about any given play), I'm likely to only take into account whether a play was successful or not and who was directly involved. With only that level of understanding about this game and Mizzou's general second-half struggles, I shot Chris from Smart Football a quick e-mail yesterday to see what feedback he may have for the cause of second-half struggles in the absence of "halftime adjustments." Here were his general ideas:

My first guess is that a lot of this is variance. It's just when the touchdowns are happening.

My second guess is that it's tempo related. Mizzou runs a pretty proficient no-huddle, with lots of calls at the line at the line. It can take a good half to adjust to that fast tempo. If you buy that analysis then it's the first halves that are aberrations, not the second.

My third guess is that you're right other teams are adjusting throughout the game and that Mizzou is struggling with keeping up. Some of this is not called lacking counters, it's being exposed. It's clear Mizzou has an issue with the run game -- take away big days against Colorado, Furman, and Bowling Green and the team averages well under 100 yards a game. Once a team tries to take away Alexander and the like it's evident that Mizzou can't get much else going. I remember the Nebraska game Suh and the others just dominated the line of scrimmage.

After that...I don't know. I still think the wide disparity probably has a lot to do with variance as much as anything else. Mizzou's attack is clearly one dimensional this year, and Gabbert has played like a talented but injured first-year starter.

We all lean on the "halftime adjustments" concept because it's easy to understand, but it's a little too simple to blame Missouri's failures on the ten minutes that coaches have to talk things over at halftime. The offense is making adjustments every time the defense is on the field, and vice versa. But whatever the situation, Missouri is laying giant eggs in the third quarter, and it is killing them.

Here are Mizzou's per-game S&P+ numbers by quarter for conference play. Remember, 100 = average.

Mizzou Offense: "+" Performance by Quarter
Opponent	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Nebraska	65.8	80.9	66.8	64.6
at Oklahoma State	163.2	123.3	10.9	62.9
Texas	76.0	134.3	18.8	103.3
at Colorado	145.0	82.8	38.2	46.9
Baylor	145.7	153.8	82.8	95.7
AVERAGE	119.2	115.0	43.5	74.7
AVERAGE after NU	132.5	123.6	37.7	77.2

37.7!! For the season, Washington State's offense is the worst in the country in 3rd Quarter S&P+ at 51.1. That's how bad 37.7 is. Meanwhile, the 132.5 in Q1 would rank in the country's top ten. That's too extreme a difference for there to NOT be at least a little bit of, as Chris put it, variance. In a follow-up e-mail, he also said this:

Only other counterpoint is that during the early stretch of wins wasn't Mizzou basically a second half team? Being down to the likes of Nevada, etc before pulling away?

Also curious how much Alexander's big plays skew the data. He's been awesome, but has obviously been more bottled up in the second half?

Otherwise I dunno. I'll just end with a semi related anecdote. Someone asked the Colts great OC Tom Moore if he was going to install any new plays for the playoffs. He said hell no, if he had such good plays for the playoffs he would have installed them during training camp.

It is absolutely correct that Alexander's big plays have come mostly in the first half, and that would certainly skew the PPP figures. It wouldn't skew success rates, and the success rates are falling in the second half too, but that does explain some of the potential variance in numbers.

But "it's just variance--let's not think too much about it" isn't really very satisfying an answer, is it?

Here's what we know for sure: two years ago, with an experienced quarterback and four future NFL targets in the WR/TE corps (including two tight ends...probably cannot overstate that point enough), Missouri ranked 10th in 3rd Quarter S&P+ and 2nd in 3rd Down S&P+. This year, they're 55th in 3rd Quarter S&P+ and 35th in 3rd Down S&P+. All things considered, those aren't terrible numbers, but they represent a couple of the biggest drop-offs between 2007 and 2009. Is it as easy to explain as "the gameplan is good, but the receiving corps isn't good enough to continue to succeed for 60 minutes, and the quarterback is still learning"? We treated the receiving corps as the team's biggest weakness heading into the season, and that was before we found out we were going to get absolutely nothing from the tight end position. With Danario basically lining up as the tight end in the slot (and making plenty of nice plays), we've still needed production from the other receivers, and while all three--Jared Perry, Wes Kemp, and Jerrell Jackson--have made plays here and there, all have suffered absolutely crippling drops at one point or another. While the running game has come and gone at times this year, we've needed other receivers to step up at key times, and nobody really has.

Of course, we can talk about offense all we want, but we're at least slightly missing the point since, in the end, they generated 478 yards on Saturday. The defense that gave up 427 yards was infinitely more responsible for the loss, so let's talk about them.

Cripes, Get Back to Fundamentals!

(Header title in honor of a rather enjoyable football blog.)

The more I think about Missouri's defensive performance on Saturday, the less I start to believe that Baylor's success had much to do with any Missouri adjustments, or lack thereof. Let's break the game up into chunks to show what I mean.

Baylor's First Two Drives: 21 plays, 130 yards (6.2 per play), 9 points
Baylor's Next Three Drives (and first two plays of the fourth drive): 18 plays, 61 yards (3.4 per play), 7 points

After the first two drives, Missouri did, in fact, adjust to Baylor's gameplan. And really, this shouldn't be a surprise--as Kevin Rutland mentioned after the game, Missouri knew Baylor would throw a lot of sideline-to-sideline passes, and Baylor knew they knew, because that's simply what Baylor does. It's part of their current offensive philosophy. It worked early, as Baylor blocked well on the outside and Mizzou missed some tackles, and those quick passes got 8-12 yards instead of 3-5. But Missouri did, in fact, adjust and slow Baylor down considerably. Baylor scored on their final possession of the first half, primarily because of a long kickoff return and two (two!) Missouri personal foul penalties, but the Bears' offense was slowing down.

And then two things happened: 1) Late in the second quarter, Carl Gettis knocked Kendall Wright down using mostly his neck and missed the rest of the game, and 2) Wright pulled off what was potentially the biggest play of the game on Baylor's first third-down attempt of the second half, bouncing around, dodging about 26 tackles, reversing field, and picking up 21 yards on 3rd-and-7.

Baylor's Next Four Drives: 19 plays, 175 yards, 17 points

The stretch from Wright's third-down catch-and-run (-and-run-and-run) to Nick Florence's 59-yard bomb to Wright, in which Gettis' replacement Robert Steeples once again got burned, made the difference in the game.

The fact is, trying to dink and dunk all game long is damn near impossible--eventually you're going to have to go deep successfully, otherwise you're only going to move the ball for so long. Even though Gettis himself got burned for a 30-yard gain early in the game, he is still clearly Mizzou's best cornerback, and while Steeples is likely a better athlete than Gettis, he just isn't experienced enough to be getting the playing time he's gotten in close games. I still have hope for him in the future, and he's shown signs of great potential, but the times he's had to step in for an injured Gettis this year--Q4 against Nebraska, Q3 and Q4 against Baylor--have ended up disastrous for Missouri.

I should stop there, however, because I don't want it to even remotely sound like I'm blaming Mizzou's defensive struggles on one player. I'm not; just about everybody on Missouri's defense (including Rutland and Gettis) got burned at one point or another. The simple fact is, if you can burn a team deep, and they know it, you can go back to the short passes for 4-10 yards all game long. By the third quarter (one-play safety drive aside), Baylor had Mizzou's secondary on a string, and with good play-calling, there's not a lot a defense can do if their secondary is getting beaten short and long. Try to blitz? As long as they have a quarterback making good decisions (and Nick Florence was amazingly mistake-free for a freshman), they'll find a quick pass to make. Play tight to take away the short pass? They'll beat you deep. Give a big cushion to avoid getting beaten deep again? Sideline passes again. There's really nothing you can do from a defensive play-calling perspective at that point. Missouri's struggles came down to plain old tackling, covering, and (cripes) fundamentals, and with so many options at their disposal, it's no wonder that Baylor was able to put up an insanely high 1.208 Passing Downs S&P.

And not to give anybody any excuses to make--in the end, there is still no excuse for giving up 427 passing yards to a redshirt freshman no matter how well he was playing--but I guess it really should be noted just how unlucky Missouri has been with injuries in the secondary this year. Jarrell Harrison missed the first month of the season, Gettis got dinged up just long enough for his replacement to get bombed in two extremely winnable games, Jasper Simmons barely played against Baylor because of an injured thigh (Remember his deep break-ups against OSU? He might have been able to make a difference on at least one of the bombs...or maybe not), Munir Prince has missed most of the last month to a hamstring injury, and now Hardy Ricks is lost for the season. Ricks has never been my favorite defensive back, but he was still a better option than others. In all, Mizzou has not had a healthy, complete secondary all year, and with so much necessary rhythm and communication needed among the safeties and corners, getting burned at some point was probably inevitable. One would have hoped that the Texas disaster would have made the unit congeal a bit better, and it didn't, but losing Gettis and Simmons, our two best overall DBs in 2009, on Saturday was probably every bit as important as anything Baylor did.

Three Positives

Danario Alexander. Mizzou lost track of him in the second half, probably because Baylor was doubling him (I wouldn't know for sure because, again, when I'm watching from the stands, I miss a lot), and until the final drive of the game he only had one catch for seven yards in the second half, but as I mentioned Saturday night, 13 catches for 214 yards was just ridiculous. Again, he's on pace for 103 catches, 1,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns. With a second solid option, or with a running game that didn't come and go from Saturday to Saturday, this offense would be extremely potent because of the job #81 has done, and it goes without saying that we are going to miss the crap out of him next year.
Blaine Gabbert in the fourth quarter. I'm copping from Ross on Sunday's podcast, but there was an assertiveness to Gabbert in the fourth quarter that we hadn't really seen before. He's not the type of sideline leader that Chase Daniel was, but he's growing on the field before our eyes, and he made all throws necessary to come back and win on Saturday. It's not his fault that, nine games into the season, his receivers can't consistently catch his passes.
The defensive ends. Mizzou's three-headed monster at end had turned into a one-man show in recent weeks, with Aldon Smith's impact dwarfing that of Jacquies Smith and Brian Coulter. But all three played well on Saturday, equally (more-or-less) splitting 10 solo tackles, 6 assists, and 4 tackles for loss. Of all the troubles Mizzou had on Saturday, getting to the quarterback really wasn't one of them. Of course, that brings two other things to light: 1) Mizzou's poor tackling in the secondary, and 2) seriously, how great was Nick Florence? He got hit a lot and still made tough throw after tough throw. Even some of his sideline passes were thrown just past the reach of Aldon Smith and perfectly on-target to the outside shoulder of the Baylor receiver, where the Mizzou DB couldn't break it up. This is going to piss me off all the more when he makes about 15 mistakes a game for the rest of the season, but he was virtually mistake-free on Saturday despite a decent pass rush, and he deserves commendation for that.

Three Negatives

Tackling. Duh. From Dave Matter on Twitter.
Pinkel: #Mizzou had 18 missed tackles vs. Baylor. Yikes
Ouch. With all of the analysis we do on this site and in these BTBS posts, sometimes the answer is quite simple. If Mizzou tackles well, then the short passes don't work. And if the short passes don't work, Mizzou's cornerbacks possibly don't end up getting sucked up closer to the line of scrimmage and burned deep, particularly in the second half. And without those deep balls, Baylor does not win. We know they can tackle well--they obviously have in the past--but they didn't. Fundamentals!
What the hell happened to the running game? As Beef pointed out on the aforementioned podcast (you're all listening to these, right?), Mizzou's lack of success (and, really, lack of attempts) was quite baffling. Baylor entered the game with a solid pass defense and nonexistent rush defense. Well, despite second half struggles, Mizzou passed for 9.0 yards per pass...and Mizzou's tailbacks averaged 3.0 yards per carry. You can't blame Mizzou for passing more when the run failed so badly, but it makes me very curious about the overall gameplan itself. We hear a lot about how Mizzou scripts seemingly all of their plays for certain situations, and I love this strategy--if nothing else, it tells you they believe in some of the general concepts discussed above from Smart Football Chris. In theory, scripting a ton ensures that you are incorporating enough randomness into the gameplan that it's harder to adjust. But did the script actually call for that much passing? In the first half, on Standard Downs (looking only at those, because Passing Downs are obviously more likely to make you stray from the script), Mizzou threw 16 passes and ran just 8 times. Maybe this was a "pass to set up the run" thing? Or as Beef put it, were we so successful at the pass that the run became too much of an afterthought?
Kickoff coverage. Don't think I forgot about you, kick coverage team. Baylor entered the game a pretty solid return team, and they should have been expected to have some success there, but here was Baylor's starting field position after Mizzou kickoffs (excluding the end-of-half kickoff and the squib after Mizzou's last score): Baylor 36, Baylor 31, Baylor 20, Mizzou 42, Baylor 33. That's an average start at the 36-yard line, about 10 yards further than it should have been, and it particularly hurt Mizzou in the second quarter, when the return to Mizzou's 42 gave Baylor scoring position despite Mizzou's (at the time) defensive improvement.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here. Rarely have the three keys been so prescient.

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over.

Mizzou's 0.711 S&P on Passing Downs actually wasn't that bad, but it was almost 50% worse than Baylor's. This really could have been the single biggest deciding factor in the game. Baylor was allowed to extend too many drives. Against a freshman quarterback facing a decent pass rush, this should have never, ever happened.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. ... Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Thanks to Mizzou's struggles in opposing territory, Grant Ressel is a Groza Award semifinalist. That's great and all, but how much of a difference could it have made if a couple of Ressel's field goals had actually been touchdowns? Early in the second quarter, Mizzou had first-and-10 from Baylor's 15, got stuffed on the run, and kicked a field goal. Then they advanced to the Baylor 28 before Gabbert very much overthrew Michael Egnew on third down. Then, in the fourth quarter, Gabbert took a terrible sack (I don't want to absolve Gabbert from all blame here--he has to get better at throwing the ball away) on first down, and Danario Alexander dropped a potentially huge pass on 3rd-and-22, and Mizzou had to settle for another field goal. Mistakes have plagued Mizzou in this regard, and it continues to cost them, even with one of the most automatic kickers in the country.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

We've covered Mizzou's struggles on kickoff returns, but we should also give a major shout out to Baylor's Derek Epperson and, more importantly, Baylor's punt coverage team. Epperson has made huge kicks all year, but he's pretty consistently out-kicked his coverage (just like I did with my wife, ahem), and it has led to some big returns. Losing Carl Gettis hurt Mizzou quite a bit, but even with Gettis Mizzou probably wouldn't have improved much on Epperson's insane 46.0 net yards per kick. Baylor's kick returns cost Mizzou about 10 yards of real estate, and so did Baylor's punting. In a game so close in terms of yardage and EqPts, every yard counts, and even with Ressel being automatic, special teams cost Mizzou dearly.

Summary

As I mentioned back in December, from 2005 to 2008, Mizzou went 15-2 against teams that finished with between a 0.251 and 0.500 win percentage, better than any four-year span in even the Dan Devine era. Fact is, Mizzou was probably due a loss like this, their first since the 2006 loss to Iowa State. I realize that any loss to a team like that is in one way or another inexcusable, but quite frankly it happens to everybody, even the Pete Carroll's of the world. That's not what certain fans (or Maneater writers) want to hear, but it's true.

We can be as dismayed and annoyed by the loss as we want, but let's not pretend it says anything particularly bad overall about Gary Pinkel and his staff. If you're looking for a coach who doesn't lose games like this periodically, be prepared to a) pay that man about $5 million a year (double what Pinkel makes), b) risk losing him to a bigger school that will pay more money than you ever could, and c) risk losing games like this anyway, because s*** happens. Even great coaches get outcoached. Bear Bryant got outfoxed by Al Onofrio. So did Tom Osborne. And John Robinson. Hell, Nick Saban (one of those aforementioned $5 million+ coaches) got outcoached by Charlie Weatherbie two years ago. The trick to long-term success is ensuring that losses like these don't happen often. Can Mizzou recover against K-State (a team that still has at least a chance of falling into the aforementioned 0.251-0.500 bracket)? Can they take care of business against Iowa State and make sure they still get a bowl out of this season?

A good response to a loss like this is what brings you long-term success, and it's time to turn the page and look to the rest of the season. The next three games will tell us more about this team than anything that happened last Saturday.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:15:23 -0000

As we enter the second game of what Gary Pinkel is calling Mizzou's second season, let's take a look at where Art Briles' Baylor Bears present a threat, and where they've been hurt worst by the loss of Robert Griffin to a season-ending knee injury.

It was supposed to be different this year. Thanks to Hot Tub Griffin III, Baylor was going to threaten for a bowl game. They were actually exciting to watch for once, and Hot Tub was Rock M Nation's unanimous favorite non-Mizzou player.

Okay, you twisted my arm...one last time this season...

One last moment of silence, please. The knee injury that robbed Baylor (and us) of nine games of Hot Tub greatness* has left Baylor lifeless on offense, and despite an increase in overall team speed on offense and a relatively salty defense, the Bears sit at 3-5, 0-4 in the Big 12. Their best chance at a Big 12 win--a trip to Iowa State--ended with an easy, 14-point loss. We have all died a little inside without Hot Tub in our lives...and Baylor has died on the outside.

* Just for effect, I should once again point out that Griffin PLAYED THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN STATE GAME (well, all of the game that the first-string played) with a torn ACL suffered on the first possession, attempted three rushes, and went 16-for-19 passing with 226 yards and three touchdowns. With a torn ACL. God I love that guy.

Alright, now that we're past that, it's time to look at the team Baylor does have, and the amount of threat that they represent for Mizzou at 1pm on Faurot Field.

Offense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

We're going to start with Baylor's overall "+" ranking, presented as we've presented data for every opponent, but this comes with a rather obvious disclaimer: Baylor's last five games without Griffin have shown a different type of team than the one that made up a chunk of these ratings. We'll take a look at Baylor, pre- and post-Griffin injury, after the initial spew of data.

Baylor Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	BU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.7 (40)	111.7 (35)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	104.7 (53)	104.8 (45)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	129.7 (29)	122.4 (33)

Rushing S&P+	133.2 (5)	102.7 (63)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (73)	118.3 (30)

Standard Downs S&P+	114.6 (33)	112.5 (35)
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6 (35)	115.0 (36)

Red Zone S&P+	128.6 (22)	104.4 (61)

Q1 S&P+	136.2 (15)	95.5 (77)
Q2 S&P+	106.0 (63)	135.8 (12)
Q3 S&P+	124.5 (26)	112.2 (41)
Q4 S&P+	105.4 (55)	115.8 (34)

1st Down S&P+	122.2 (20)	108.0 (49)
2nd Down S&P+	127.0 (22)	112.3 (41)
3rd Down S&P+	101.1 (74)	113.8 (38)

Line Yards+	105.9 (52)	101.6 (61)
Close Sack Rate+	95.7 (73)	93.3 (72)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	106.7 (57) / 108.3 (56)	101.9 (57) / 123.0 (37)

Analysis after the jump.

Now, let's look at the Baylor offense with and without Hot Tub III.

Baylor Offense: With & Without Griffin
Category	With Griffin	W/out Griffin
Close S&P+	120.3	89.1
Close SR+	111.1	92.2
Close PPP+	129.5	84.1

Rushing S&P+	169.5	74.0
Passing S&P+	89.0	94.3

Standard Downs S&P+	132.3	82.0
Passing Downs S&P+	79.8	113.4

Red Zone S&P+	150.7	102.8

Q1 S&P+	169.9	98.6
Q2 S&P+	77.1	96.4
Q3 S&P+	183.6	80.7
Q4 S&P+	87.6	96.7

First, it is worth noting that BU's actually a better passing team with Florence than with Griffin. That's not the biggest shocker in the world, but it does show that Florence is at least solid. And he's got a pretty deep WR corps (deep in that the #2 guy is about equal to the #6 guy) to work with, plus a nice, offensive-minded head coach. Also, for whatever reason, they're better in both Q2 and Q4 with Florence than they were with Griffin. You figure that one out, as I have no idea; of course, they are infinitely worse in Q1 and Q3, so usually the game is lost by the time Q4 (or even Q2) comes about, it appears. Mizzou might do Baylor some favors, as they are usually not particularly great in Q1, but it appears that Q3 is death for the Bears (strange, considering BU outscored Nebraska 10-0 in Q3 last week).

When Baylor Has the Ball...
Baylor Rushing	Advantage: Missouri
Baylor Passing	Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Baylor:	Q1
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2-Q4

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. Where applicable, I'll look at post-Griffin numbers.

Close Success Rate+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+ (though Passing Downs is close)
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st Down, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for Baylor...

Q1 S&P+
2nd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Without Griffin, Baylor has found the going a lot rougher in terms of utilizing their other weapons--WR Kendall Wright, RB Jay Finley, etc. They still have at least a decent offensive line, but that line will need to execute against Missouri's rapidly improving defensive line, and they will need to generate some early points, as Missouri assumes more and more of an advantage as the game wears on. And if Baylor gets handed any easy opportunities through turnovers or special teams, they simply must convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

Quarterback

One thing's for certain right off the bat: Baylor's QB unit may have ranked 28th in overall quality in 2008, but they were a distant 1st place in QB Nicknames. Just when I thought nothing could top Blizzle Szyzzle (from the esteemed and departed Bear Meat), along came our boy rptgwb with Hot Tub Griffin III. No idea what to do with Nick Florence's name (here's his bio pic...any thoughts?), but while the Baylor QB legacy hasn't led to many wins (yet), who needs wins when you've laughed this much?

Nick Florence: 84-for-147 passing (57.1%), 942 yards (6.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT

So...any great nicknames for Nick Florence yet? He needs you now more than ever. Really, Florence hasn't been too bad passing the ball. He hasn't been great, but considering two of his four Big 12 starts have come against Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the three best defenses in the conference (this week, they play the fourth-best, followed by the overall best next week against Texas), his numbers haven't been too bad. He is indeed just a redshirt freshman, and he was thrown into a no-win situation; granted he indeed has no wins, but he could be a lot worse. Let's just say that he's absolutely no worse than Blizzle Szyzzle, Blake Szymanski. No offense intended, Mr. Blizzle.

Running Back

Here's an area where Baylor is perfectly...fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. Good, even. Jay Finley averaged 5.8 yards per carry and fared much better than backups Jacoby Jones (now gone) and Jeremy Sanders (now a safety). He only ranked 80th in the POE (Points Over Expected) rankings and had a PPP+ of 110.4, which means he was slightly above average considering who his yards came against. Against three of the worst rushing defenses on the Baylor schedule (NW'ern State, Washington State, Texas A&M), Finley had 41 carries for a whopping 326 yards (8.0 per carry). Against everybody else: 108 carries, 539 yards (5.0 per carry). Still respectable, but that's how you can maintain a pretty high per-carry average while not ranking in among the Top 75 in POE. And that's how he managed almost an identical PPP+ to Jacoby Jones (110.6), who had averaged almost two fewer yards per carry.

Jay Finley: 42 carries, 261 yards (6.2 per carry), 2 TD; 4 receptions, 24 yards (6.0 per catch)
Jarred Salubi: 42 carries, 249 yards (5.9 per carry), 2 TD; 17 receptions, 134 yards (7.9 per catch)
Terrance Ganaway: 34 carries, 134 yards (3.9 per carry), 3 TD; 1 reception, 13 yards

Between Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi, Baylor has managed a pretty decent first-string RB this year. Unfortunately, most of their success came early in the season. Finley had 121 yards on eight carries against UConn, while Salubi had 131 in seven carries against Northwestern State. Since Griffin's injury, Finley has managed 49 yards in just 20 carries (2.5 per carry) while recovering from a sprained ankle and pulled quad, while Salubi has only been slightly better at 118 yards in 35 carries (3.4 per carry). Injuries haven't helped here, but the injury that hurt most of all was obviously Griffin's. Without the dual threat QB, teams are able to focus a lot more on the RBs.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Joining [Kendall] Wright will be a handful of players--David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Mikail Baker, Justin Fenty--who, I swear, have been playing at Baylor for nine years and hoping nobody noticed. Gettis and Smith have had respectable careers, especially White (95 career catches, 1,232 yards, 12 TDs), but both seem to be 30-40 catch guys at best. There is hope that Lanear Sampson, a former 3-star recruit from Mesquite, can add some much-needed new blood to the unit. He raced past a few more experienced players on the depth chart this spring.

WR Kendall Wright: 40 catches, 448 yards (11.2 per catch), 2 TD; 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3 per carry), 1 TD
WR David Gettis: 31 catches, 426 yards (13.7 per catch), 3 TD
WR Ernest Smith: 26 catches, 280 yards (10.8 per catch); 1 carry, 5 yards
WR Lanear Sampson: 15 catches, 130 yards (8.7 per catch), 1 TD

TE Justin Akers: 14 catches, 124 yards (8.9 per catch), 1 TD
TE Brad Taylor: 8 catches, 90 yards (11.2 per catch)

In Baylor's first game post-Griffin, Kendall Wright had 125 yards in nine catches against Kent State, suggesting there was life even with a dry hot tub. However, in the past four games he has managed only 16 catches for 134 yards and has scored zero touchdowns (of course, Baylor as a whole has scored only four, so that's not saying a lot). Justin Akers (against OSU) and David Gettis (against Nebraska) have stepped up recently, but until more than one weapon shows up for a given game, Baylor's whole aerial attack is grounded. Wow, I did not intend that weak pun there. C'est la vie.

Offensive Line

Now [Jason] Smith is gone...is there anything good left? Center J.D. Walton appears to be the best of the remaining bunch. Both he and guard James Barnard are seniors and two-year starters, and that can't be a bad thing, but Art Briles recruited the JUCO ranks heavily in this past recruiting class, signing three JUCO O-linemen (not to mention four high school OL's as well). This was clearly an area of concern, and not just because they lost Smith. This line wasn't good with Smith.

Looking at Baylor's Line Yardage and Sack Rates, you get the distinct impression that this isn't a particularly good or bad line. In fact, with rankings around 60th in all categories, you could say the line is actually perfectly average. Unfortunately for Baylor, Mizzou's defensive line has been improving significantly in conference play and is quite likely well above average right now, especially with Aldon Smith surging and a much less mobile quarterback looking for open receivers. This matchup has gone from a draw to a distinct Mizzou advantage in recent weeks.

---

Defense

Baylor: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Baylor Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	BU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (60)	106.2 (57)
Close Success Rate+	94.2 (84)	103.6 (58)
Close PPP+	109.0 (44)	112.8 (56)

Rushing S&P+	86.3 (98)	102.1 (67)
Passing S&P+	118.4 (29)	110.8 (51)

Standard Downs S&P+	99.5 (63)	105.0 (60)
Passing Downs S&P+	109.1 (47)	109.7 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	122.7 (32)	70.7 (114)

Q1 S&P+	89.0 (86)	117.9 (50)
Q2 S&P+	102.5 (63)	100.2 (73)
Q3 S&P+	109.8 (45)	111.9 (52)
Q4 S&P+	101.1 (61)	102.4 (65)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (58)	102.6 (66)
2nd Down S&P+	95.2 (75)	106.6 (64)
3rd Down S&P+	109.1 (50)	118.9 (38)

Line Yards+	87.1 (101)	101.3 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	89.9 (78)	173.9 (16)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	79.1 (93) / 115.6 (45)	243.4 (8) / 124.7 (41)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage(ish): Baylor
Best Time for Baylor:	Q2-Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q1, Q4

With Gabbert looking much, much healthier against Colorado, we can at least tentatively put an end to the "injured Gabbert" period. So, since we did the "pre-and-post" treatment for Baylor, should we do the same for Mizzou? We know that Mizzou's offensive stats plummeted with Gabbert's ankle sprain, but we also know that the defenses Mizzou faced at that time were much better. Luckily, we have "+" numbers to account for the difference in competition level! So here are the numbers for when Blaine Gabbert had one and two healthy ankles (the "one healthy ankle" stats are for the last three quarters of the Nebraska game and all of the Texas and OSU games):

Missouri Offense: Healthy vs Injured Gabbert
Category	Healthy #11	Injured #11
Close S&P+	107.1	94.3
Close SR+	101.2	95.3
Close PPP+	114.1	93.1

Rushing S&P+	85.4	117.1
Passing S&P+	119.3	81.6

Standard Downs S&P+	103.4	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	90.9	98.2

Red Zone S&P+	70.6	108.4

Q1 S&P+	93.7	116.3
Q2 S&P+	91.3	107.2
Q3 S&P+	108.2	31.5
Q4 S&P+	101.7	81.4

Mizzou was significantly better at both rushing and red zone offense when Gabbert was hurt, but I think there is a bit of noise in the statistics there. Mizzou got a lot of credit for the touchdown they scored on their lone red zone trip against Texas, and that balanced out their craptastic execution against OSU. Either way, that's a damn small sample size. Meanwhile, the rushing success didn't seem to have anything to do with Gabbert limping around--it was seemingly more a result of Missouri's offensive line simply blocking better (and, potentially, their running backs running better).

Either way, we're definitely working with a small sample size here, but there are some conclusions that can be reached: 1) while Missouri's second-half execution against Colorado left something (okay, a lot) to be desired, they are still a much, much better second-half team with a healthy Gabbert. It's almost as if Missouri was able to disguise Gabbert's injury with good game-planning, but by the second half, they were out of tricks. Now, with Gabbert throwing more accurate passes and pulling down a couple of keepers, Missouri has a lot more options. Also, and this is some incredible statistical analysis here, 2) Missouri is a much better passing team when their quarterback can actually hit his targets.

With that in mind, let's look at Missouri's "healthy Gabbert" advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+
Sack Rates+

Baylor's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2 S&P+

With a healthy Gabbert, the passing game seems to be a draw, as do Q3 and Q4 S&P+ and 1st Down S&P+.

Defensive Line

Beyond [Penn State transfer Phil] Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

DE/DT Jason Lamb: 21.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 2 Blocked Kicks
DT Trey Bryant: 15.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 3 QBH
DE Zac Scotton: 12.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Phil Taylor: 11.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBH, 2 Blocked Kicks
DE Tracy Robertson: 10.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 3 QBH

So...has vaunted transfer Phil Taylor actually made a difference? Baylor's pass defense has actually been pretty solid, but their rushing defense has been horrible. If Mizzou's offensive line was able to open up holes for Derrick Washington and company and protect Blaine Gabbert from Colorado pass rushers, there's nothing saying they won't be able to do the same (and better) against Baylor. Maybe Taylor really is a difference-maker, but the rest of the line has been just terrible? Jason Lamb, who has been playing at Baylor since Grant Teaff was coach, has put up some decent numbers--as good as those of Mizzou's Jaron Baston and Dominique Hamilton--but he's pretty much it. If he's not making a nice play, then Baylor's relying on the LBs.

Linebackers

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Joe Pawelek: 52.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 2 PBU
Antonio Jones: 47.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
Antonio Johnson: 41.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU
Chris Francis: 21.0 tackles
Elliot Coffey: 20.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF
Earl Patin: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

I really was pretty impressed with Joe Pawelek last year, but while he's been rock solid this year, it doesn't seem like he's been quite the playmaker I was expecting. He's still good, though, and the Two Antonios have combined with Pawelek to form what is certainly a decent unit. As I put it in the offseason, Baylor has struggled in certain areas (i.e. run defense), but they're not the reason why. And they're fast enough to do decent things in pass coverage.

Secondary

Jordan Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

S Jordan Lake: 48.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF
S Jeremy Williams: 25.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
CB Clifton Odom: 22.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 4 PBU
S Byron Landor: 22.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBU
CB Tim Atchison: 21.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBU
CB Chance Casey: 18.5 tackles, 2 INT, 1 QBH, 4 PBU
S Mike Hicks: 12.5 tackles

If Pawelek hasn't been quite what I thought this year, Jordan Lake REALLY hasn't been what I thought. He was a pretty strong, disruptive player in 2008; this year, he's just a tackler. One forced fumble, one tackle for loss, and no interceptions? Huh. In all, though, Baylor's pass defense really has been pretty decent this year; I mean, ranking 47th isn't amazing by any means, but with a sieve for a run defense, the secondary has been the least of their problems. Can you tell I haven't at all been impressed with their defensive line?

Special Teams

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Punt Returns Rank: 22nd (Krys Buerck: 12 Returns, 7.5 Avg)
Net Punting Rank: 89th (Derek Epperson: 45.2 Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 39th (Terrance Williams: 13 Returns, 26.0 Avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 44th

Field Goals: 4-for-8 (Long: 41) (113th)
PATs: 17-for-18

If the special teams play involves a Baylor player with the ball in his hands, running upfield, then Baylor's special teams unit is pretty solid. If it involves somebody in a Baylor uniform kicking...not so much. Derek Epperson ranks in the nation's top 20 in overall punt average, but their net average has been hurt by two blocked punts, and they're giving up almost 17 yards per return (with one touchdown). Ouch. And Ben Parks has been far from great as place-kicker. But hey, Krys Buerck and Terrance Williams are bright spots. That's something.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over. With Blaine Gabbert's arm, I love the idea of going deep quite a few times, but with the advantages Missouri will have in other regards, Missouri really just needs to avoid Passing Downs disaster, and they should be alright. It's rare one of my keys is "stay relatively conservative and don't do anything stupid," but that does appear to be the case here. I like to surprise myself sometimes.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. (SPREAD DOESN'T WORK NEED FULLBACK RAWR!!!!! ET CETERA. Just thought I'd get that out of the way so that doesn't come up and I don't have to point out that Missouri's red zone offense has been just fine in the spread the last few years.) Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

Prediction

Clearly this is Missouri's game to lose. It is Baylor at home, after all. However, even without Robert Griffin, this Baylor team has more weapons and team speed than previous Bears iterations, and if Missouri lets them hang around, loses the turnover battle, gets some bad bounces, allows a big play or two, etc., Baylor can absolutely win this game. As long as Missouri plays average or better, they should move to 6-3 and bowl eligibility. The numbers say Mizzou by 16.5, so we'll say Mizzou 30, Baylor 13. Run the ball well, rip off a big play or two, don't commit any awful turnovers, and let Mizzou's defensive weapons--Sean Weatherspoon, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, etc.--make the plays they can make.

SB Nation - Kendall Wright

Post Game Thoughts :: Baylor Bears Edition

Morning Border War Links and Discussion

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 11.26.09

Crunching the Numbers :: Baylor Bears Edition

vs.

Five Initial Thoughts

Baylor Preview

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou(38)

K-State(12)

"This Team Can't Score in the Second Half"

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Five Things to Watch Against Baylor

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score

Baylor(40)

Mizzou(32)

"Halftime Adjustments"

Cripes, Get Back to Fundamentals!

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Mizzou
(38)

K-State
(12)

Baylor
(40)

Mizzou
(32)