SB Nation - Jamie Harper

South Carolina Thoughts...Moving Forward to Georgia Tech

FIGUREFOUR — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 23:48:57 -0000

Well, maybe it is not that bad, but the tremors from the bomb SC dropped on us yesterday are still resonating throughout the Palmetto State. I had to take a 24 hour moratorium on writing this item to allow the dust to settle and to avoid penning an article that would be too emotional and ultimately detrimental for anyone reading. So, objectively, I will review the items that we were watching yesterday and add additional details as necessary. The positive thing that we as Clemson fans have going for us is a trip to Tampa and a good opportunity for another game in Miami.

Did the Tigers appear distracted and overlook the Gamecocks? It appeared as though this team was a little too confident coming into this contest. While historical records certainly favor the Tigers (as we constantly point out and joke about here), this is 2009 and what happened in the past will not win you football games today. While I think the coaching staff was aware that this was a big game and that South Carolina would not roll over in the same fashion they did last season, the players were not serious enough about this football game. Hopefully this is a real eye-opener for this team and for the staff. Nobody's crowning their asses yet, as an Atlantic Division title--while nice--doesn't mean much if Clemson cannot take care of business. The coaching staff will need to use this game as a reminder to future teams that all games are important and any team can win on any given day. While distraction/overconfidence may have played a role in CU's loss, it certainly was not the sole reason for the outcome of yesterday's football game.

Special teams played a role in Saturday's football game, as predicted. Clemson and C. J. Spiller did a nice job taking advantage of an opening kickoff penalty by the Gamecocks. Spiller was able to return his 7th kickoff for a touchdown and set a new NCAA career record in this category. Clemson was able to convert all PAT attempts as well as its sole FG attempt on the afternoon. CU (Da'Quan Bowers) blocked a South Carolina FG and was the benefactor of a huge mental error on the Gamecocks, as the Cocks partially blocked a punt then touched the ball, giving Clemson a gift first down on a Michael Wade--I believe--recovery and denying SC great field position. Unfortunately, Clemson committed a big roughing the kicker penalty (Ricky Sapp, I believe, while engaged with a SC blocker, roughed up the punter), continuing a SC drive after the defense held them to a 3 and out effort. Overall, I think we are all happy with this effort.

The running game was critical in this affair. SC came out and did something that they have not done all year--find a running game and stick with it. USC churned out 223 yard on the ground, with Freshman Kenny Miles leading this effort with 17 carries for 114 yards. I really did not expect SouthCarolina to be able to come out and stick it to our defense in such a fashion. Carolina has not done this all year and has really struggle with their run blocking. The rushing success out of the Wildcat formation and on designed QB keepers was more expected, as such items have hurt Clemson previously this season (Virginia, Georgia Tech, and TCU all come to mind). Clemson and offensive coordinator Billy Napier produced 48 yards on 19 carries. Apparently Billy doesn't have the address to this blog, because we have consistently professed how to beat South Carolina's defense--RUN THE BALL BETWEEN THE TACKLES. Clemson instead attempted reverses and everything but lining up and attacking this team right up the gut. Clemson did not even try to commit to the inside running game, and probably ran more reverses and such than simple ISO and inside trap plays. This was a facet of Napier's playcalling that I was really disappointed with, and cannot accept any excuses for not feeding Spiller/Ellington/Harper the rock inside more (other than Harper's fumble and the poor play of our offensive line, which we will get to later on). Championship coaches identify opponent's weaknesses and hammer them. Carolina has been poor in the middle of their defense for years. Clemson's rushing strategy was simply not acceptable. Clemson's inability to rush the ball negated the effectiveness of play action (which Clemson has successfully utilized over the last portion of this season) as the game progressed.

Turnovers, in a nutshell, killed the Tigers. Harper's early fumble, in my opinion, was the turning point of the football game. Up 7 and driving after forcing a Steven Garcia INT, Clemson had a chance to really get it going inside Gamecock territory. Instead, Jamie Harper puts the ball on the ground and a complete momentum shift occurred. South Carolina has given up several times this season (Tennessee and Arkansas immediately come to mind), and goiing up 14-0 early in the game would have been deflating for this team. Instead, SouthCarolina comes out and drives right down the field, with Stephon Gilmore leading the charge out of the Wildcat formation. His completion to fellow Freshman Alshon Jeffery was impressive. This drive was very well planned, as SOS did a good job here of changing the pace while still capturing the big play we were used to seeing out the the Old Ball Coach while at Florida. Not to digress too far, but this was set up by a key Clemson turnover. On the flip side, Clemson benefited from one interception and the a gift from the blocked punt, neither of which turned into points for the Tigers. Clemson had many opportunities to take the ball from Carolina, but were unable to simply fall on the football when USC put it on the ground. Losing the turnover battle and not making the most of SC's mistakes is probably the telling tale of this football game.

Offensive line play, simply stated, was terrible for Clemson. Clifton Geathers and Cliff Matthews each had big games against the Tigers' tackles. Shaq Wilson and Eric Norwood were harassing Kyle Parker all afternoon with designed blitzes. This was the most disappointing portion of this football game. Clemson looked as inept against SC as it did earlier in the year when everyone we played whipped out OL. This time, however, all members of the OLgot embarrassed. Kyle Parker had no protection all afternoon and was constantly running for his life. We have discussed here what we think the main problem with this line is (and where it all started). I would strongly suggest reading both of these articles by Dr. B (2008 and 2009 Editions, linked immediately following this sentence), as I will not get too far into this today (I fully expect this issue to be a hot topic over the course of the next few weeks/months. 2008 Edition and 2009 Edition. South Carolina, on the other hand, whipped us up front and ran the ball well (see above). Because they could run the ball, they did not have to throw the ball (and pass protect) against a really good CU pass defense.

Clemson did a poor job defensively. The defense looked winded to me late. Clemson had some botched gap assignments and missed a few tackles. Carolina had over 36 min of total offense, tiring the Clemson defense. Clemson got pushed around up front and were unable to force as many three and out drives as we have seen all season long. Once again, SC'sability to dominate up front, control the ball with their rushing game, and capitalize on drives (with touchdowns) kept the Clemson defense on the field and getting pushed around. This is the first time all year that I can remember this D-Line getting out-muscled.

Overall, South Carolina simply wanted it more. They came out and took it to us in the trenches. SOS and Ellis Johnson had pretty good gameplans on both sides of the football, and the Gamecocks executed pretty well. Carolina was the benefactor of a couple big breaks and bounces of the football (Clemson cannot recover two fumbles, SC field goal banks through the uprights, etc...). Fortunately, as mentioned earlier in the week, this game means nothing (other than the fact that I get to hear trash talk all year from my Cockfan coworkers and others), as Clemson can redeem itself and capture an Orange Bowl invitation by defeating Georgia Tech Saturday night in Tampa.

There were a few positives Satruday. C. J. Spiller was able to set an NCAA record with his game-opening kickoff return for a TD. Unfortunately, Spiller was able to contribute little after that, as his run for the Heisman took a significant hit against the Gamecocks. Michael Palmer had 8 catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. This was the first 100 yard passing game since 1970, and only the second in school history, per the Greenville News. Palmer and Allen have combined this season to break many of the TE records set by Pittsburgh Steelers legend Bennie Cunningham in the 1970's. This game should be a real eye-opener and give the coaches plenty to harp on until next September.

On to Tampa. The Tigers will do battle with The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets for the honor of representing the ACC in this year's Orange Bowl. You all remember Clemson's first Thursday night game against Tech earlier in the season. Tech, like Clemson, comes into this contest following a stinging loss to its in-state rival (I feel for them, cause I absolutely hate Georgia). Clemson cannot afford to commit the stupid mistakes it made against Tech earlier in the year, particularly on special teams. We both think that Clemson has an excellent chance to win this weekend, especially after watching Georgia run all over GT. The Willie Martinez-led defense was able to hold GT to 340 total yards and just over 200 on the ground. If Willie can be effective against this potent offense, there is no reason Clemson shouldn't have a good change at slowing them down. We will get into more game analysis and keys to this contest as the game gets closer. Here are some of our opinions and overviews of the first contest against Tech. These are good reads and are good homework/holdover materials until we release some new material later in the week.

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/09/gt-preview_10.html

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/09/what-to-look-for-against-gt.html

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/09/impressions-before-looking-at-film30-27.html

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/09/clemson-falls-to-gt-30-27.html

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/09/defensive-breakdowns-against-gt.html

Here are some notes on basic strategies and palys GT will use on Saturday:

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/06/gt-defensing-flexbone-basics.html

http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/07/gt-defending-run-shoot.html

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/spread-run-game-nuances

Quick Thoughts: Through UVa, Early Week Thoughts for USC

FIGUREFOUR — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:20:35 -0000

More photos » by Richard Shiro - AP

about 1 month ago: Clemson's C.J. Spiller (28) acknowledges fans during the first half of their NCAA college football game against Virginia, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, at Memorial Stadium in Clemson S.C. (AP Photo/Richard Shiro)

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I think we are all pleased that Dabo Swinney, in his first full season at the helm of the Clemson football program, finally meshed the talent that Clemson has recruited with more intensity, enthusiasm, and a winning attitude to completely transform the program from where Tom Bowden left it just over a year ago after getting crushed by Alabama, giving one away to a bad Maryland team, then looking completely inept against Wake Forest. There is nothing like promoting your receivers coach to clean up an underachieving mess. It was also refreshing to see Swinney remove the Mad Scientist from his role, add Pearman, Steele, etc... to the staff, and come out with lots of energy all season. Interestingly, Swinney's contract calls for the 40 year-old coach to receive a nice (approx $1 million) bonus due to Clemson earning a spot in next month's championship game. Not too shabby for the former Crimson Tide walk-on. This incentive-laden contract really was beneficial for both parties.

The Virginia game was, by itself, not entirely impressive other than the fact that Clemson came in and was able to to take care of business and lock up sole possession of 1st place in the Atlantic regardless of how BC plays next week. The defense was obviously confused by the Wildcat formation and the misdirection/trickery from the Wahoos. The defense, led by senior Ricky Sapp, did get it together in the second half to pitch a shutout over the final 30 minutes. I was happy to see this group get after the Virginia QB late in the game and record a half dozen sacks in the final period of the game. Clemson also forced two fumbles on the afternoon, giving this defense 29 turnovers this season. Winning the turnover battle has been extremely important for the Tiger this year because it limits the opponent's touches while keeping them on their heels all game long. I was happy to see Da'Quan Bowers in the game for a handful of plays Saturday. Hopefully he will be ready to go this weekend against Carolina then next again against Tech. Bowers gives us a lot of athleticism and creates depth along the defensive line. Clemson was aided in the second half by an injury to Mikell Simpsonon Virginia's final TD to end the half. Al Groh elaborated after the game on this loss and the how it limited the ability of the Cavaliers and their wildcat strategy.

C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford combined for two great senior efforts to conclude their Death Valley careers, with both tallying touchdowns and Ford breaking the 100 yard receiving threshold on the day. Kyle Parker again had a steady day, compleing 19 of 26 passes for 234 yards and 2 tds. His maturation over the course of this season combined with an exceptionally strong arm and decent mobility set Parker up to be a great collegiate QB should he chose to avoid professional baseball. I was a little disappointed not to see Willy Korn in a mop-up role. His future at Clemson appears to be all but sealed with Parker's success this season and Tajh Boyd becoming available next season. Both Andre Ellington and Jamie Harperboth ran well here, with Ellington punching the rock in for a 3rd quarter TD. Once again, Clemson got good consistent play from the TE's, with Michael Palmer having three grabs and Dwayne Allen bringing down an early TD catch. Rendrick Taylor got a couple looks Saturday. I really expected more out of Taylor over his CU career, but was pleased to see him get some work on senior day.

All in all, this team has played hard all season long. Clemson never gave up, even after the embarrasment at Maryland. In fact, I firmly believe that the meltdown at College Park may have spurned the offensive coaches to return to a more basic and focussed offensive strategy, featuring only the proven playmakers (Spiller, Ford, and the TE's). Since laying an egg against the Terps, Clemson has not been defeated. The defense has continued its solid play and the offense has scored 34 or more points in each of those six contests. The improved play calling and execution coupled with a more focussed attack has silenced both critics of Swinney and Steele. As we pointed out earlier in the season,inexperience from the offensive staff as well as the QB position was a huge question mark, and both areas should immprove as each member gets more real game repetitions week in and week out.

On to our feathered friends in Columbia. South Carolina's season began well and has really tapered off over the balance of the games. After opening the year with a 5-1 record, the Gamecocks (6-5 overall, 3-5 in the SEC) have lost 4 of the past 5 games, with the lone win coming in a low-scoring affair against Vanderbilt. At some points this season, USC has looked like a really good team. Other times, South Carolina has struggled against teams they probably should have beaten handily (Vandy, Arkansas, NCST, and Kentucky come to mind). SOS has openly stated that he has and will continue to have more influence on playcalling and game flow.

This year's team features a talented defense and improved offense. Eric Norwood, school leader in sacks, is the best player on the team. He is a great athlete who runs well and has a nose for the football. Clifton Geathers is a pretty good defensive end, and the secondary (lead by Chris Culliver) rotates in a lot of young but talented DB's. Offensively, this team is much improved from a year ago. Steven Garcia getting more reps and actually participating in spring practice this year has paid off, as Garcia looks night and day better than he did last year. South Carolina has also found a couple of good, tall freshman receivers in Tori Gurley and Alshon Jeffery to compliment senior Moe Brown. Spurrier has repeatedly thrown jump balls the Jeffery, who has 29 receptions and 6 TD's on the season (including 3 TDs in a dominant performance against Kentucky). I really like TE Weslye Saunders. He is freaking huge (6'5", 280 lbs) is a good blocker and catches the ball well. This is one guy who can do some damage if he gets a full head of steam. Up front, bringing in Eric Wolford as offensive line coach has helped tremendously, as South Carolina's OL has improved dramatically since a year ago. Ellis Johnson (former Clemson, Alabama, and Mississippi State DC and Citadel HC) has been successful everywhere he has coached, and was also a quality hire for the Old Ball Coach.

Most of South Carolina's woes arise from depth and experience issues. While South Carolina has improved up front, their rushing attack is still sub-par. Kenny Miles, Jarvis Giles, and Brian Maddox share the carries for this team. I continually question why Maddox gets as many touches as he does because the two freshmen (Miles and Giles) are unquestionably better ball carriers than Maddux. South Carolina's size at receiver and tight end scares me a bit. Clemson likes to play man/man-press coverage, so this size advantage could be a big deal this weekend. Defensively, South Carolina is quick, but thin. The way to attack this defense is head on, as the Gamecocks lack quality depth at linebacker and up front. If you can get the starters tired, there is a nice opportunity to pound this team to death. USC's secondary is good and can hold its own against most any squad. The Alabama game was an excellent illustration of this point, as the Tide and Greg McElroy could do nothing through the air while Mark Ingram averaged 10 ypc and picked up almost 250 yards on the ground.

We will have much more insight on this contest as the week progresses. We are also looking to work with the Gamecock SBNation blog, Garnet And Black Attack, to provide some extra coverage and segments for this week's contest.

Below are highlights from last season's contest.

Clemson - NC State film review

DrB — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:15:24 -0000

by Jim R. Bounds - AP

about 1 month ago: Clemson running back Jamie Harper, left, scores a touchdown on a 69-yard run against North Carolina State during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. Clemson won 42-23. (AP Photo/Jim R. Bounds)

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Tigers vs Wolfpack boxscore

Tigers vs Wolfpack recap

ESPN Play-by-Play

We're not going to go quite as in-depth as for our FSU review, but will go drive-by-drive. See the end for the summarizing thoughts. Please comment and ask questions on what you dont understand, these take a long time to do well. The goal here is to look for both good plays and bad technique. I may pull a few plays out to discuss the Clemson offense, and if theres anything that you would like to see or have explained, just ask.

1st CU Drive: NC State refuses to kick deep to CJ and Clemson starts on their 37. Kasey Nobles fumbles the kickoff return but recovers. He wasn't prepared to handle that return, it took a bad bounce though. Blast play for 6 from the I. Palmer gets a 1st down on a shallow cross/drag route. Spiller is stopped for a loss on an off-tackle lead play due to a run blitz. Parker puts a bit much on the next throw to Spiller from an empty set. He still needs to work on some touch throws. Hits Spiller underneath again short. Punt

1st Defensive drive: NCSU starts from their 7. Two good plays by Conner to start, but still get 9 yards. Another inside zone play gets 7 yards, really just great effort by Baker here. Clemson is showing a 3-4 front. KA whacks Wilson's arm to go incomplete on his first throw. There was obvious holding on the play. Chancellor was in perfect position to knock the ball away on a fly route. Terrible looking punt but ends up at 35 yards.

We were vulnerable to zone blocking run plays here, the same thing our defense sees from our offense.

2nd CU drive. Fear of Spiller gives Clemson the ball at our 41. Parker goes deep to Ford, I like the call here, go right at this porous pass defense. Ford got pushed out of bounds by a Linebacker. Spiller takes a zone dive from the Gun for 30 yards. This has to be the best run from the Gun I remember this year. Screen to Harper, who then pushes inside on the next play. OL is pushing them around at the POA inside. HB Power gets the first. Ford runs a Corner route, but Parker underthrew it and late. This ball should be over Ford's outside shoulder. Nearly picked by the Safety coming over to help. Zone play to Spiller down to the 11, good initial push by Freeman and Austin here. Parker pass batted down.

Benton sends a dead duck through the uprights, 3-0 CU.

Two drives in, its clear to me that we are able to handle them inside. Probably the first time this year that our OL has been able to whip someone up front in the 1st quarter. Theres a clear trend to go with more I-formation running than zone.

2nd Defensive drive, NCSU 20. Williams drops a 15 yard gain on McDaniel. Clemson playing matchup Cover 2 zone. Clemson sends a WHAM blitz, Maye forces an early throw and we get screwed by a PI call. Gilchrist had his arm around his waist, which is what you TEACH a back to do when the ball is about to be caught. Wilson gets 12 on a bootleg keeper because the DE took a bad angle (too shallow) and lost containment, can't see his number but think its Branch. Jarvis Jenkins eats up a run play for a 4 yard loss.Butler makes a good play to bat down a ball. Maxwell picks off a pass at our 25 that was underthrown and I dont think the receiver looked early enough.....both those balls were underthrown actually. Clemson had a delayed blitz on the play with both LBs.

Clemson D allowed 30 yards in the 1st quarter.

3rd CU drive from our 25. Ellington Iso for 5. Pressure forces an early throw to sail high. They blitz and Dye catches a shallow cross for a 1st down. They had bracket coverage on Ford on that play and the deeper SS was worried about him and not Dye, apparently they learned not to match Ford on a LB, but they had a LB on Dye. Zone play is stopped, Spiller appeared to cut away from his blockers, and could've had another 3 yards. Spiller on a Gun zone play again didnt charge into the available hole and gets no gain. Palmer catch of 22 right down the middle. NC State is playing a 4-3 Stack and Nickel, basically dropping the safety down in the box as the 3rd backer, with Cover 2 and Cover 3 zone. I'm surprised Palmer was that open but he found a hole in the zone in front of the deep FS. Spiller zone play up the gut for 9, good effort by Dwayne Allen to stick with his block. END of 1st qtr. Ford takes the end around for the TD. GREAT BLOCKING BY DYE AND PALMER to set this up, good seal block by Walker. 10-0 CU. 9 plays 75 yards

Defensive Drive from the NCSU 20. 3 & out. Owen Spencer could've made the catch but we were right there with him. Clemson showing an 8 man front and blitzed both OLBs on that play. 3rd & 12 and Miguel Chavis on an inside stunt gets the sack. Horrible 6 yard punt follows.

4th CU Drive from their 17. Spiller HB Pass to Dye for the score. Looks like a Rodney Williams-style wobbler. 17-0 CU. This play is on the free safety, he took a bad angle and should've picked up Dye as he released but was worried about Spiller. The corner allowed Dye to release because he was watching Spiller, as he should in Corner Support.

Defensive drive from the NCSU 20. Campbell looks slow on a play, and doesnt hit the hole, and instead the OLineman, and they end up with 11. A 12 yd pass hits Owen Spencer in the chest and he drops it. KA rushes off the end and gets a hand or a finger in Wilson's pads and jerks him down, then Maye dives on him at the end for the personal foul. Stupid penalty on 3rd & 11. Wilson's first completion comes on a hitch in a Smash pattern. Davis drops another pass from Wilson. Brandon Maye called for PI within the 5 yard contact zone on a zone blitz. 4 yard penalty but gives them a first down on 3rd down. McDaniel is a step late on a coverage for 16, then Sensabaugh bit on a pump fake and left his receiver for the TD. 17-7, 12 plays 80 yards

Stupid penalties. They would not have scored here if not for Maye's first one.

5th CU drive from our 43. Again Nobles fumbles it. We go back to more zone run plays. McClain gets downfield for a penalty, not accepted. He wasn't looking at the LOS, just jogging to the side Parker scrambled to. NC State playing Cover 3 zone (actually a Tampa 2 in Nickel, which is C3), and Ford gets down the middle on a post route for 47. Nobody picked him up. Palmer runs a little pump route and nobody looks at him. 24-7 CU, 6 plays 57 yards

Defensive drive starts at their 25. Toney Baker giving us trouble, falls forward and pushes our guys around. Thompson misses a clear TFL, then tips a pass at the line. Another missed TFL gets them 6, cant get the number. Wilson throws across his body to hit the TE matched on Conner, but great play by them. Maye sack as Wilson scrambles. NC State is using slide protections to counter our blitzes. McDaniel has WIlson in his grasp on a blitz and lets him go, pass incomplete. I can't believe McDaniel didnt bring him down. 8 plays 27 yards

6th CU Drive from the 13. Some good runs until the quarter ends. Zone read, Gun zone dive, 34 zone. Cloy gets a snap infraction, likely because he hasnt been playing Center much lately.

Halftime

Defense had some bad penalties, and we aren't getting any holding calls. Their guys can't catch the football. Branch and Sapp were clearly held on some plays. 30 yards allowed in the first quarter.

Wilson 4/14, 49, 1/1. Baker 9 car. 39 yds.

Offensive line is pushing them around. We went with more I-formation early and then to zone runs.

Parker was just off on a few throws. 7/13, 107, 1 TD.

Spiller, 9 car 54 yds.

Defensive drive starts on the 25. Gilchrist beat for 21 . Sapp has a sack and loses contain on WIlson, then he scrambles and Campbell horse-collars him. Jenkins also blew right by his man on this play. Goodman clearly gets chop blocked, no call. Cumbie pushes Wilson when he's already out of bounds, Maye had him for a sack in the backfield and took a bad angle, another stupid penalty. Butler is beat for the 6 by Jarvis Williams, lost position and turned his hips too early. 24-14, 9 plays 75 yards

Wilson had a 1st down on the late hit call already, just gave them a free 10.

1st CU Drive from the 40, kicked out of bounds. Zone run to Spiller, then a little flare for the 1st. Ford gets a ruboff screen for 8. More zone runs. The Spiller fumble...then we snap the ball and no whistle is blown until the play's forward progress is stopped.

This was a fumble. I see it from the forward angle and the rear angle, thats a fumble. His knee grazes the ground at the same time the ball is out of his grasp. I can see 3/4 of the football there, its out.

Heres what happened: ACC Field refs find out they can give a NC team the football, so they have to do something. We run a play, so they decide they better review the last play, which is against the rules, so they call "no play". Unfortunately, the replay official wasn't in on the fix and reviewed the "no play" instead of the fumble play. Thus, no fumble call.

Had Swoffy been there, we'd have turned the ball over.

Zone read, Spiller takes it in on an Iso from 16 out, great block by Dwayne Allen. Spencer Benton MISSES THE FUCKING XP, HORRIBLE SNAP. 30-14, 7 plays 60 yards.

Defensive drive from their 9. Chancellor PI call. He makes contact and extends his arms, then as he stumbled it looked worse. Davis makes a great catch and McDaniel pops him for it. Inside guys are attacking gaps well. Gilchrist makes a great hit to force a drop. 9 plays 49 yards

Next CU drive starts from our 2. Run, run, run, punt. This is the only spot where I disagree with playcalling, but I do understand the conservatism with this lead. I would've liked to see a play-action pass here to a back or TE, especially on the 2nd down play. Austin goes out. Gun zone dive to Spiller into a blitz...I just wouldnt run shotgun this close to my endzone, Conservatism gives them field position at our 38 after the punt.

Defensive drive from our 38. THOMPSON CLEARLY HELD on the first play, and they call illegal shift for 5. I can't believe that wasnt called. Jenkins nearly eats up another play and can't make the tackle. Conner lets Baker get behind him on an out-n-up route for 26. Maye just a step too late for a sack. KA has Wilson by his fucking shoe and lets him go. He throws a ball 10 feet over the receivers head and we dont get a grounding call, "because he had an opportunity to catch it" bullshit. FG 30-17, 7 plays 29 yards.

WHY do we not get a holding call today? God forbid a big penalty go against them.

CU drive from the 23. Zone runs. Zone read play-action to Ashe, good call, its been set up well. McClain beaten badly on a speed rush as Parker hits Palmer for 16. NC State fails to respect the wheel route. Benton FUCKING MISSES ANOTHER XP. 36-17, 7 plays 77 yards

Defensive drive from their 32, 3 & out. Branch CLEARLY HELD on the first play. Hall makes a good play as Gilchrist misses a sack.

CU drive from the 31: Jamie Harper 69 yards. Diehl got a great cut block, the WR makes a great block too to seal the Corner. 43-17.

Defensive drive from the NCSU 10. Both LBs get blocked out on a 10 yard gain. Neither fought off the Guards. I see Campbell and Cooper in at LB, with Corico Hawkins and Daniel Barnes on a play or two. Cooper made a good play and then came out. Butler, Maxwell, Gilchrist, Hall are all still in the secondary. FINALLY GET A HOLDING CALL. Jarvis Williams makes a 34 yd catch, Chancellor out of position to stop it. George drops a pass right down the middle, and I'm wondering why Hall was just standing there. Wilson has a back in the flat and goes deep instead incomplete. Turnover on downs.11 plays 76 yards

Weak drive by the defense. For those saying we are substituting all the backups, thats not entirely true. The LBs on this series were backups. The secondary had Brewer and Meeks on some plays, but otherwise starters. The down 4 basically sub the whole game.

CU drive at the 15: WILLY KORN comes in. Zone runs, zone reads, punt. Willie Young beats Matt Sanders badly through the gap. A weak block by Rendrick Taylor on the last play.

Defensive drive starts from the NCSU 44. Mike Glennon in at QB. Maxwell almost picks off a pass, should've caught it. Blitz forces an incompletion. 22 yard gain against Maxwell because he was playing too soft. Meeks beaten on a post route, safety (Hall) again a bit late in getting over. Meeks totally forgets to cover Williams, and watches the backfield instead. Brainfart. 43-23

No excuse for this drive. Loss of intensity. Some of these are 2nd team guys but they play. It was not all backups in the secondary.

Summarizing thoughts....

Offense executed very very well. I think this was our best full game so far, especially up front. The OL handled their zone blitzes well and run-blocked good. Definitely their best full game performance so far. Downfield blocking by the WRs and TEs was also very good to see.

Rushing from all 3 backs was strong. I would've liked to see Spiller get over 100 though. Harper seems to have clicked in recent weeks; we've been waiting for that to happen.

Parker was good, but still needs to work on touch throws and setting his feet on sideline throws to keep them from being underthrown.

Defense....solid but not great. I did not see alot of emotion from the defense, particularly the front. Mental mistakes cost us dearly, penalties killed us on two drives along with a few missed tackles. I'm also certain there would be one less TD on the board if not for flagrant holding. I'm disappointed by the last TD drive the most, and though they hit the TD on Jonathan Meeks, it wasn't all backups in there.

Toney Baker is a better power back than i realized. He falls forward and carries people with him. Russell Wilson is more elusive than I gave him credit for, really really good feet. You have to wrap this guy up, and several times our Defensive Ends lost some containment. I think Bowers does get him for a sack or two today.

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Clemson defeats NC State 43-23, one step closer...

DrB — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 21:14:34 -0000

More photos » by Jim R. Bounds - AP

about 1 month ago: Clemson running back C.J. Spiller (28) carries the ball as North Carolina State linebacker Dwayne Maddox (41) and cornerback C.J. Wilson (20) try to hang on during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. (AP Photo/Jim R. Bounds)

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ESPN box score

This was an ugly game for the defense. Ugly. 377 total yards allowed. Mental mistakes all around in pass coverage. Two blown coverages lead to TDs. Sensabaugh bit on a pump fake for the first one.

A gimme TD at the end by Meeks on a blown assignment. Brandon Maye almost hands them a TD on one drive with a couple big penalties to keep them alive. One of which was a PI call that I thought was BS since it was so close to the LOS. The other, well I would like to know if it was definitely a late hit by Maye or something Alexander did, because I couldnt tell if he nicked the facemask as he jerked Wilson to the ground. The ref did not say which it was, only Maye's number.

I'm still left wondering where the damn holding calls were? Lack of discipline in attacking the running game, but when your DTs are being held and Branch/Goodman are held on every other pass rush (and one was a chop block), you wont get tackles for loss/sacks. NC State wasnt doing it on every down and their OL deserves credit for 138 yards, but we're a better defense than that.

Russell Wilson 12/32 for 183, 2 TDs, 1 INT and shouldve had a couple more picked. If his WRs would help him out they'd have done better today, because the defense was giving it up.

I really just think the defense was not mentally prepared today to play. Wilson is good and eludes the pass rush extremely well, but both of their long scoring drives were helped by huge penalties. Maye with two big ones on 3rd downs, Cumbie and Campbell on their 2nd TD drive. NC State was 7/15 on 3rd down.

I noticed more matchup zone and it seemed like we blitzed infrequently again today. Something to look at in the film.

Offensively, not much to say. 454 yards. 200 passing and 254 rushing, thats my kind of breakdown. We ran the ball more (36 att, 19 passes), when I figured we would throw more against this awful pass defense.

-The threat of Spiller scared them into giving up field position and we burned them with it. Punted twice with the first team O. Efficient day by Parker, 12/18 for 183 and 2 TDs. Spiller 97 yards on the ground.

-Spiller throws a Rodney Williams-like ball. Ugly but it works. He becomes the first CU player ever to score on the ground, receiving, and passing in one game. He broke the school's record for all-purpose yards today.

-NC State did not respect the orbit motion and Ford burned them for a 17 yd TD.

-Teams dont respect the wheel route yet. WHY?

-Jamie Harper, we've been waiting for that for 2 years.

Unofficial word on Austin : ankle sprain

Post-Miami Coaches Interviews and Press Conference

DrB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:13:12 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

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Dabo Swinney Press Conference

Not terribly much to say about this press conference, it was mostly about kudos to C.J. Spiller and his Heisman campaign and other fluff.

On Miami and our mistakes:

You mentioned the "issues." What are they?
Swinney: Turnovers. We got to eliminate turnovers. You don't beat many good teams when you have four scoring opportunities and don't score. We get down there and we don't score a field goal. We had another one where we had good field position and then we had penalty, penalty, penalty and then we had third-and-40. We had the fumble other way for six. To get zero points on those four opportunties- we have to eliminate those critical errors. Defensively - we had a lot of missed alignments - they were trying to hide their right tackle a little bit and did some unbalanced stuff which created some gap control issues. And then big plays. 282 yards on 10 plays. In the other 51 they had the other 100-something yards. You don't win many games that way. It was a 15-16 round slugfest. That's what we have to focus on.

As to what Miami was doing and the adjustments the defense had to make and improvements, Steele said this:

"That's always the case. I've never seen a perfect game played. What happens is a lot of times mistakes, corrections, things to improve on get swept away (publicly) by a victory and accentuated after a loss. That's why we keep the same routine everyday, all year long. Every Monday is just like the Monday before, regardless of the outcome of a game. That's the emphasis. That's how you improve. You dissect every game, play by play, technique by technique.....

....Then there were plays in that game where there was a technique breakdown or a communication breakdown. You have to give them credit. They did some things new that gave us some communication problems, not that we didn't know what we were doing. They executed against it and we never got it totally worked out, but we got it down the best we could on the sidelines with the chalkboard."

....there was a new wrinkle that created some communication problems and then changed some things that we had worked on, because once you get some communication issues on something new they're doing, then it spills over to some things we had already prepared for.

"For example, if you take 22 personnel, two tight ends and two backs and you adjust that out all week long and then all of a sudden they put 22 personnel out there, two tight ends, two backs, then take one TE out of the game, and put another tackle in the game, so you've got three tackles… so now you've got a defender lining up and he thinks he's lining up on a tackle, but he's not. That's a tight end. So when they put the tight end back in the game, the guy is looking for that third tackle and he's not there."

Which confuses an End or LB or S, because they all are aligning based upon how the offensive personnel line up.

On the offenses performance at Land Shark:

What does it mean to have your tight ends stepping up as much as they have the last three weeks?
Swinney: It's what we expected coming into the season. That's why you play to our strength because we felt like that position was a real strength for us. Michael has caught more balls than any other tight end since the 1980's. They are a big part of what we do. No doubt about it. We've got some really talented wide outs, but they are inexperienced and we are still trying to groom those guys. So it's been good to see the development of Michael. He's not the most talented- but has great experience and understands how to play. He's Tyler Grisham. And then a young guy like Dwayne Allen and Chad Diehl - we love having them on the field.

.... It's all about coaching those attention to details. We had the fewest missed assignments that we have had in a long time. Especially on offense. Pleased with that.

Billy Napier:

Is the offensive improvement simply explained by getting the tight ends more involved?

"Personally, when you're sitting here trying to put together a plan, you're looking at who you really feel like can be productive for you. What's the best way to produce first downs and score points? We kind of narrowed down our focus in terms of who was playing and who we felt could be those guys and structured the plan around those guys.

"The other thing is just a message of execution, details, preparation and getting the most out of every day during the week. Understanding that the reason you screwed up on a Saturday is you weren't focused on a Monday. Or you went out there on a Wednesday and had a very average day and the same mistakes showed up Saturday.

What have Palmer and Allen done to become a more integral part of the offense?

"They practice hard. They show up and put in the time. I really think that they've shown up with a little bit different demeanor and attitude than maybe they have in the past.

"Now Michael Palmer, he's a guy who's been pretty consistent in his approach. He's an example guy. He's a guy you can point out and say he plays well because he studies the game and he's a student of the game. He understands the big picture.

"That's one of the things we told Dwayne when we recruited him is, hey, you're going to have a year where you're going to get to observe a guy who's extremely smart and who's going to help you learn the offense, who's going to help you grow up as a person, who's going to be a really good example for what it takes to be a good player. This is his chance. He's really observed Mike and he's figuring out what it takes to be a good player. It's not all about ability. It's the guy that plays the best on Saturday. That's all coming together for him. He's growing up."

Do you feel you've made strides in short yardage?

"Yeah, we did. We executed those plays fairly well. We were fortunate that we didn't get caught in a false start on the fourth-and-1, but we executed those plays really well. We ran behind our best people, our best lead blocker. Jamie Harper really ran the ball with the mentality that he knew the down and distance and he was going to get the first down.

"We've changed some things from a practice structure that I think have reflected on the game. We're doing short yardage and goal-line on Tuesday now in full gear, and I think that's helped us not only practice it in a more realistic environment, but I also feel like it's helped our kids when we've got to the game. So it's about preparation. It's about learning your lesson, to some degree. Looking at it from the outside in: 'Hey, how can we get better at this? What do we need to do?'"

How do you feel the blocking by the receivers has come along on the perimeter?

"We felt that maybe that was a way we could create big plays. We felt it was an area where we could get over the hump and create more explosive plays... our effort on the second level. We took a good look at that and put a huge emphasis on that in the open date. There's no question that it showed up on a couple of C.J.'s big runs. Xavier Dye, Terrance Ashe, Jacoby Ford, those guys in particular have made some critical blocks to pop some of those long runs that you've seen the last couple of weeks."

On the situation at the end of regulation

Can you recall what it was like on the headsets when Dabo was trying to get Kyle Parker to spike the ball to set up a final play in regulation?

"We lost about eight or nine seconds there. We ran the ball, trying to catch them in split-safety defense. It worked and it hit for about nine yards. There was come uncertainty about whether we got a first down or not. We were going to (spike) the ball, and we just didn't have any sense of urgency from our players.

"Kyle, in particular, never even looked to the sideline after he handed the ball off. We're up there about to rip our headsets off. So we had to waste our timeout. And then we had to go ahead and kick it, because it wasn't worth taking a chance of getting caught in bounds or maybe not getting a first down.

"If you (spike) the ball, you probably have about 18 seconds left. You can run one more play and then you kick the ball. Or maybe it's even move the ball to the middle of the field and call your timeout with four seconds left, and kick it so you don't have to kick off.

"We had a plan. It's just the players - our quarterback in particular, he was just watching the play. Coach Swinney is like right there, and he's just standing there looking. (Swinney) is over there yelling, going crazy.

Actually I think it was 12 seconds.

Would you have taken a shot to the end zone?

"I don't know. We had a play in mind that we were going to try. But personally, after throwing an interception down there, I would've probably just moved it to the middle and kicked a field goal and gone and played overtime.

On the road, usually you'll play for the tie and let it go to OT, but given that Miami had been able to run the ball all over us (and nearly ran one in during OT), I bet Swinney would've gone for the 6 at least once.

On simplification of the playbook:

Have you simplified your playbook in the last couple of weeks?

NAPIER: "Matter of fact, I think we've carried more offense. That's one of the things I feel may have helped us, because we've been capable of keeping teams off balance by having enough ideas and new things. And we've thrown the ball a little bit more. Our quarterback is kind of living and learning and he's finally getting to where we trust him enough to make some decisions that factor into the game. We've thrown the ball more, and that's where you've seen the tight end and running back touches increase.

"We still have lots of room for improvement. We made enough mistakes that we could've very well lost that game and been analyzing the same mistakes that we made in the previous games when we lost.

"We're lucky we won the game, and it's a huge morale boost. Our kids are looking at us a little bit differently than maybe they were two weeks ago."

Danny Pearman on the RT situation

"Landon started a little shaky as far as the second series where we got behind with penalties. We got behind with the grounding, a chop block… it was a sloppy series. Landon got a hold on that. But other than that, I thought he came back and played pretty consistent for us."
Is there a position battle brewing there, or do you like the chemistry the way things are now?

Pearman. "Both of them are playing pretty good. I wish I could get that on the left side. A guy that stays out there the entire game doesn't have as much in the fourth quarter or in an overtime. I may look at playing someone on the left side to rest Hairston. I may look at David some this week doing that. Hairston played 74 snaps Saturday. That's a lot of snaps for a guy. That's one of the things I'm trying to do this week… get some (left tackle) work on David. I may look at some of that this week. Obviously he's our second or third best tackle."

What is it that Landon does better than David right now, or I should say what separates the two right now?

Pearman. "I'm not sure there's anything. I'm not sure he does that much better at anything or the other one, vice versa. It's a good one-two punch. They practice hard. They have been practicing better. David deserves to play. So long as he keeps playing like this, he'll play more. Last week he was lineman of the week."

At LT:

....The thing we have to do is develop someone over there on the left side. You know, Cory has played some for us over there, but you get in some of these games where as coaches you go with your gut feeling."

Which basically tells you that Pearman realizes that Lambert sucks. If David Smith is the 3rd best tackle after being moved there a couple weeks ago.....damn. David Smith totaled 14 snaps in our first 4 games. In his last three, the guy has been in on 79 plays.

Scott. "David has been.... I don't want to say a surprise - but the maturing process is starting to happen. He's seeing the game better. He's getting more of a push out there on the edge and has gotten more comfortable with his pass sets. That has really helped us because I don't think Landon is at his best when he's playing 75 plays. Now they're splitting and playing 35-40 each.

"And we're free-wheeling in there with David and Cloy. I think we also have a plan to get David some work in practice on the left side. He's become our most dependable third left tackle. Cloy can play three positions, so that's a bonus for me."

David has come a long way, from reserve guard to splitting time with your starting right tackle. Talk about his progression over the last couple of months.

"I think it was easier for us to probably fit him in out there at tackle after we had the injury to Hairston. We recruited him as a tackle and he had played some tackle for us. We had gotten short-handed at guard and he had some quickness about him. Right now, he'd do just as good a job if we played him at guard. That's a developmental position. He's more comfortable playing the game of football. He gives us the athletic ability on the edge.

"The other night he got beat up and under one time but had the athletic ability to come back on the other guy to get a push. The QB stepped around him and made one of those throws up the middle. I like the way he gets a little push on his drive blocks, too.

"David lacks some experience, but he definitely gives you an athletic tackle. We've still got a little ways to go and some things to work on.

Freewheeling=brad's code word for his usual musical chairs. If anything Cloy should start ahead of McClain.

Did you use Cloy at center Saturday?

"I didn't.... Last week Cloy played probably half the time at center. I plan to use him at center this week and against Florida State and N.C. State and so on, because he does give us production there. But we were doing a pretty good job. I thought it was critical for him to play some at right guard. Freeman, again, was doing a good job. Mason's pass protection and understanding of everything we did, he was very dependable. Mason played the second quarter. Big Mac (McClain) played and we alternated throughout the game. Both split time. I felt McClain's game was stronger towards the end than it has ever been. The plan now is to get Mason more work on the left side as well. I know he can handle center."

The biggest improvement I saw was that Freeman was much more comfortable making all the points. He looked like he understood and knew what was happening in there. That was a big help to us. They're gaining some confidence.

On Coastal Carolina

Swinney: Coach Bennett is a friend and has done a great job. He was a graduate assistant under Coach Ford here. I've watched him build that program - they won their conference three years in a row - '04, '05 and '06.

Offensively when you look at them, it's kind of a combination of West Virginia and Florida. They have a veteran offensive line. They do have big play capability. I would call them a little unpredictable. They have a shifty running back.

Defensively, they are multiple and have a lot of pressures. We'll have to be well-prepared and hopefully we will play our best game of the week on Saturday.

Steele: "They're very multiple. They're very personnel oriented. They're going to play four wide receivers, three wide receivers, two wide receivers from different looks. They're very formation-oriented… a lot of different formations. They're talented at receiver. They have two quarterbacks that play and both make plays. The running backs and the fullback, No. 39, he's all over the place. You can tell he knows what he's doing. They're well-coached."

Is there any part of you that thinks this game Saturday is a dangerous game for this team?

Steele: "Like I said… I've said it before and I know people get tired of hearing it, but it's just jersey numbers and bodies in positions. Are they eligible? Are they not eligible? Where do they line up? What are they running? I've been doing it long enough that I do not factor in at all where we play and who we play, what their logo is… it just doesn't matter. As a coach, you can't tell the players that every game is the same, then your routine is different or you're not as detailed or not as excited. So we do everything the same, the same time, the same way. It doesn't change. Because that's what we expect them to do. We expect them to play every play that way and it not change."

I havent seen much about CCU's defensive philosophy other than using a few fronts and pressures. I think it is a 40 front most of the time.

Looking Ahead to Clemson-Maryland

Ben Broman — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:53:19 -0000

More photos » by Mary Ann Chastain - AP

2 months ago: Clemson's head coach Dabo Swinney calls the plays during the first half of their NCAA college football game against TCU Saturday Sept. 26, 2009, at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Mary Ann Chastain)

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I'll admit it, I'm getting a late start on this week's preview, but it's been a busy couple of days. To make it up to you, I'll try to make this one lucid and understandable. No guarantees, though.

Maryland has fared pretty well against the Tigers in the past few years, when they were headed by Tommy Bowden. But Maryland's comeback win last year in Death Valley was one of the many straws that broke the Tigers' back, and Dabo Swinney (100% certified awesome name) now heads the program.

By all accounts, Swinney appears to be able to both recruit and coach, something Bowden struggled with at times. For that reason alone, expect Clemson, who has more talent than Maryland, just like they did last year, to come out focused and ready. As Dinich puts it, this year's Clemson is "more confident, more physical". That spells bad news for Maryland, whose upset last year was fueled by a non-existent, wilting second half performance on the part of the Tigers.

To break down the game in easy digestible bites of confidence vs. fear:

Why You Should Feel Confident:

Well, C.J. Spiller is a bit shaken up, so he'll probably be less effective than usual. It's at home, which can't hurt. Maryland has a history of bouncing back from bad losses (though I expected that bounce-back to come last week, not this week). A mainstream media member is picking Maryland. The biggest weakness for the Tigers is their WR corps, so it's a good bet the Nolan Carroll-less secondary won't get killed through the air. To compound that, Kyle Parker hasn't been spectacular at QB.

That is all.

Why You Should Feel Scared:

Too many reasons to list. First off, C.J. Spiller, even when injured, is an amazing talent and possibly the best home-run threat in the entire ACC. It doesn't really matter that Parker has thrown four interceptions (hey, Chris Turner nearly accomplished that in a single game!) with only five TDs, or that his completeness percentage is 47%; Clemson runs the ball, and runs it well.

Spiller is rested by Jamie Harper, a former five star who plays the role of replacing James Davis and doesn't do too terrible a job of it, and Andre Ellington, a former four star who is reminiscent of Spiller himself and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

Throw that up against Maryland's improving-but-weak defense, the same one ranked 110 in rush defense and is averaging 202 yards against, and the results could be disastrous. It's not irrational to expect another 17 tackle day from Wujciak, which would be a bad thing..

It gets worse. Clemson's biggest strength is actually their very solid defense, which is 26th in total defense (Maryland's is 103rd). They're particularly stout against the pass, not a good sign for a team that has relied on passing lately (28 rushing yards against Rutgers, anyone?). They're also tied for 30th in turnovers, which means they'll probably shoot up to 5th after the game. The Tigers have guys like DaQuan Bowers and Ricky Sapp (two DEs), who are extremely talented, if under-producing a bit (seriously, Bowers was the #1 player in the nation a couple years ago). This defense could completely control Maryland's offense if the Terps play anything like they have in the past four games.

Oh, and we've already established that they're focused this year, so that's off the table, too. And if you're looking for a comparison, Clemson beat MTSU by 23. This should be a loss, no doubt.

Prediction: It should be a loss, but Ralph Friedgen's Terps have a history of pulling out these types of games. Don't be surprised if Maryland stays close, which would be accomplished by solid, fundamental football and driving Da'Rel Scott into the ground. On the flip side, don't be surprised if Clemson runs away with it, dominating both sides of the ball. This Clemson team is miles better than any team Maryland has faced to date, with the possible exception of Cal. I believe Maryland can win, but it's not happening today. Clemson 31, Maryland 17.

Post-Spring Previews: Clemson Tigers

Gamecock Man — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:18:52 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

4 months ago: Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney speaks during the Atlantic Coast Conference Kickoff college football media day in Greensboro, N.C., Monday, July 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

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After hosting the Florida Gators in week eleven, USC takes a week off before wrapping up the season with the annual rivalry match with the Clemson Tigers. The Tigers enter 2009 flying distinctly under the radar in Dabo Swinney's first full season as head coach. After underachieving in each of the last few years of Tommy Bowden's tenure, expectations are decidedly lower for the transitioning Tigers this year. However, in many ways this year's Clemson may be better than the Clemsons of years past. James Davis and Cullen Harper are gone, but C.J. Spiller is still around, the offensive line should be a bit better, and there's talent on the defense. Plus, I have a feeling Swinney will excel his predecessor in the coaching department, not that that's saying so much. This team's ceiling will likely be determined by how far either Kyle Parker or Willy Korn go towards becoming top-tier quarterbacks. Parker appears to be the starter right now, but don't be surprised to see Swinney continue to give Korn a look.

Of course, we've floundered horribly in this rivalry series in recent years. Despite not having been an elite team in recent years, the Tigers have generally had their way with us, winning 11 of the past 13, including a few blowouts, such as the 31-14 beatdown last year at Clemson. By contrast, we've won more games against Georgia in the past decade, despite the fact that the Dawgs have clearly been much better than Clemson in that time span. I've heard lots of theories as to why Clemson has owned us, perhaps the most pervasive being that we're simply spent by the time this game comes around. Personally, I don't buy this theory; the ACC may not be as good as the SEC, but it's not a cake walk, as suggested by the fact that Clemson usually comes into this game with almost as many losses as we have. The Tigers could just as easily say that their schedule wears them out, but they seem to always play their best in this game. The opposite could be said for us.

Whatever the case may be, we have to figure out a way to start winning more of these games, and not just for pride's sake, although that's certainly important. Losing a match with the Tigers may not keep us out of the SEC Title Game in the official standings, but it does hurt us on the recruiting trail, which is one of the things that keeps us from being able to challenge Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the East. All things considered, we recruit surprisingly well against Clemson considering how badly they usually seem to manhandle us. That has me thinking that if we could turn the tables on them that we could corner the market on the in-state talent. That's what will get us over the hump in the SEC, and that's why Clemson-Carolina is about more than bragging rights.

Let's take a look at how we stack up against the Tigers this year.

Offense

Expect to see Clemson run more spread formations this year than in years past. The Tigers want to get their two best offensive players, C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford, the ball in space so they can make big plays with their speed.

Quarterback

While the Tigers have some talent on offense, they have a big question mark at the position that matters the most. Kyle Parker has won the starting job after solid spring and August practices, but Willy Korn will continue to get looks if Parker struggles. Both are talented, but either way, Clemson will have to rely on a freshman without significant experience this year.

I call this one a push. Stephen Garcia is slightly further along in his development than Parker or Korn and probably has the most upside of the three. However, Clemson has an advantage over us in the depth department.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

Clemson returns a legitimate Heisman contender in Spiller. Spiller needs no introduction here, as Carolina fans won't be soon to forget what he's done to us over the course of his career. The Tigers will look to Jamie Harper to fill the void left by James Davis. The highly recruited Harper rushed for only around 100 yards last year but will be expected to play a much larger role this year.

I give the Tigers a slight to strong advantage here. We have the talent and depth to have a very good running game this year, but, unfortunately, we don't have a Spiller, who is one of the nation's very best.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Clemson loses some significant players here from a year ago. Gone are receivers Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham and end Michael Palmer. The Tigers do return Jacoby Ford, who is a definite big-play threat. However, outside of Ford they have almost no one with any significant experience. Possession receiver and end are question marks for Clemson.

I give Carolina a slight advantage here. Clemson does have the guy with the most career catches, but we have a large number of guys that have proven they're capable, whereas Clemson has no one after Ford. That gives us a key advantage in the depth department.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Offensive Line

Last year, offensive line was Clemson's weakness throughout most of the season. This year, though, the more experienced Tigers offensive line should be better. The Tigers only lose one player, center Bobby Hutchinson, and return a solid group of guys with starting experience. Depth may be the only cause for concern.

The Tigers look quite a bit like us here. Both of us should field much better lines in 2009. I'm calling this a push.

Verdict: Push

Let's take a look at defenses after the jump.

Defense

Clemson runs a 4-3 defense. Swinney and coordinator Kevin Steele have said that they plan to be more aggressive than the previous regime.

Defensive Line

The Tigers are strong at end, which they hope will help them generate a better pass rush than a year ago. Da'Quan Bowers is another Gaines Adams in the making, while Ricky Sapp should be good if he recovers from last year's knee injury. The Tigers did lose some key tackles from a year ago, and may struggle to find depth if Jarvis Jenkins or Brandon Thomas go down.

I give Carolina a very slight advantage here, mainly due to greater experience in the starting lineup and questions about how good Sapp will be after his injury. Both teams are in a similar boat in terms of depth, so the team with the most guys still standing by the end of the year may be the one with the advantage when the time comes.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

The Tigers are pretty solid here. Interior linebacker Brandon Maye is great in rushing defense and will probably lead the team in tackles. Kavell Conner gives them a solid outside guy. The other spot is a little shakier, with Scotty Cooper likely starting now that DeAndre McDaniel has moved to safety. Depth is also an issue.

I give us a slight advantage here. The Tigers don't quite have the star power we have at linebacker, but they should be good nonetheless.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Secondary

The secondary is Clemson's defense's strength, as the Tigers return quality experience at every position. Corner Chris Chancellor, who has been very successful against us over the course of his career, is the unit's star. Crezdon Butler is also good at the opposite corner, and the Tigers have quality backups for Chancellor and Butler. The Tigers lose strong safety Michael Hamlin, but they will replace him with the aforementioned McDaniel, who should ably fill Hamlin's shoes. Free safety is a little more of a question mark, but Clemson should be able to figure it out with the talent they have in the secondary reserves.

I give Clemson a slight to strong advantage here. News out of camp has been promising for our young secondary, but the Tigers are unquestionably more of a proven quantity.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Special Teams

The Tigers will suffer a complete overhaul of their kicking game after losing kicker Mark Buchholz (I'm sure you remember him) and Jimmy Maners. Spencer Benton and Richard Jackson are competing for kicking duties, while Dawson Zimmerman is expected to handle punts. Zimmerman did play some last year and was OK. Clemson does have a potentially explosive return game when Spiller and Ford are returning. Those of you that watched Alabama paste the Tigers last year may remember that one of their few highlights was a long kickoff return for a touchdown by Spiller.

I'll call this a push. We have slightly more stability in the kicking game, the same thing going for Clemson in the return game.

Verdict: Push

Coaches

Dabo Swinney was able to energize the Clemson faithful by finishing the regular season strongly. That finish, of course, included the blowout win over us, which certainly helped Swinney's reputation with Clemson faithful. The true test, though, begins now, after the lustre of that surprise finish has worn off. Swinney is still a coach with very, very little experience, certainly much less than you would expect for a guy in charge of a relatively high-profile program like Clemson. He has to prove that he wasn't a knee-jerk reaction hire--a la West Virginia's Bill Stewart--by having a better than average season this year. He doesn't have to win the ACC, mind you, but he does have the tools to finish in its upper half. If he can't do that--and he fails to beat us--expect the Tigers faithful to immediately begin to question the hire. And rightfully so, I would say; I'm still a bit surprised the Tigers didn't go after someone like Bobby Johnson. If Swinney does well, though, expect the hype machine to begin for the resurgence of Clemson football.

I'll give Steve Spurrier a slight advantage here based on experience. However, as with Lane Kiffin, it's really too early to make many judgment calls about Swinney, so take this comparison with a grain of salt.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Overall

My sense is that these are fairly evenly matched teams. Both should have pretty good defenses and both might have OK offenses if a few things fall into place. A few decisive questions jump out at me when trying to decide which will win. First of all, the two teams share inexperience at quarterback. Whether it's Parker / Korn or Garcia that's playing well by November will be a deciding factor in how good these two teams are relative to each other when they take the field. Second of all, Dabo Swinney and his staff are largely an unknown quantity, so their progress will be important. Finally, both teams have some depth issues on defense that may be exposed by the end of the season. The team that suffers fewest injuries at low-depth positions may have an advantage there. I don't have the answers to these questions right now, so I'm just going to go with my heart (and against historical precedent) and call it a close Carolina victory. I'll go ahead and admit that this pick derives at least in part from homerism and unwillingness to pick Clemson. We obviously have a lot to prove against these guys. I do, though, think the talent gap has closed to a certain degree. We're in a place to even up this series. The only thing remaining is to actually do it.

Prediction: 28-24 Carolina victory

Poll

The Clemson game will result in a (elaborate in the comments section)...

Blowout Carolina Victory

10 votes

Close Carolina Victory

26 votes

Close Clemson Victory

18 votes

Blowout Clemson Victory

33 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

ACC Roundtable: Pre-Season Edition

FSUncensored — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:43:30 -0000

Welcome readers of CBS Sports!

The Atlantic Coast Conference was quite the enigma in 2008. The ACC had 10 bowl teams and yet had no teams in the top 10 at seasons end. The ACC had the best non-conference performance among the BCS conferences, and yet nobody seemed to notice. Why is this?

The ACC isn't sexy. America loves sexy and in college football, offense is sexy. The ACC, on the other hand, is a defensive conference. Six of the ACC's head coaches have a background on the defensive side of the ball. Compare that to the Big 12, where only three of the head coaches have a defensive background. Head coach personalities are often reflected in the play of their teams, and that is the case with the ACC. The ACC was the best defensive conference in 2008, but again, few noticed. 5 ACC teams had a top 20 defense in 2008, and all but two had a defense in the top half of college football. No other conference came close. Wake Forest featured 4 Defensive NFL draft picks in the first 4 rounds, including the #4 overall pick in linbebacker Aaron Curry. That same Wake Forest team beat media darling Ole Miss and surprising Baylor out of conference, yet received little publicity for doing so with a 4-4 record in conference.

The ACC's style is downright boring. The majority of ACC coaches are very conservative. They punt. They play the field position game. They don't run wide-open offenses. The ACC has the lowest average margin of victory of all the major conferences. The games are all close, because all the teams are talented. There are no off-weeks in the ACC. Teams who overlook an opponent lost to that opponent more often than not. In many ways, the ACC resembles the NFL. People enjoy NFL football, but there isn't a higher-scoring alternative played on Sundays. As Tony Barnhart writes, the NFL loves the ACC. Over the last 5 years, the ACC has the most first round picks on defense.

And while the ACC plays great defense, they also have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. Most don't realize the good offense being played because of the defensive nature of the conference. 4 of the first 9 draft choices last year were from the ACC and 3 of those were offensive players. The last two 1st round QB's chosen from the ACC have been big time hits (Matt Ryan and Phillip RIvers), in no small part because of the excellent defenses they faced in the ACC.

In 2009 though, the ACC might put a few more points on the scoreboard, and catch the eyes of some voters who ignored the conference last year, as more offensive-minded coaches gain control, and young quarterbacks become experienced veterans. Inside, we preview the ACC with the help of some of the best writers who cover the ACC, in this first edition of the ACC Roundtable!

We asked each writer three question sets about their team.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?
The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?
Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Atlantic Division

Boston College won the ACC Atlantic last year by virtue of a tiebreaker over FSU and Maryland.

ATLANTIC	CONF. W-L	OVERALL W-L
Florida State	5-3	9-4
Boston College*	5-3	9-5
Maryland	4-4	8-5
Wake Forest	4-4	8-5
Clemson	4-4	7-6
North Carolina State	4-4	6-7

Talk about parity! The entire Atlantic division was bowl eligible, and every team was within 1 game of playing for the conference championship. This year, things look to be slightly more spread out, as several teams seem poised to take a big step forwards or backwards.

Forget the ACC writer's picks. Let's have a look at the current vegas odds:

9/4 Florida State
7/2 Clemson
7/2 North Carolina State
6/1 Wake Forest
9/1 Maryland
21/1 Boston College

There's a wide divide between the top three and the next two, and then a huge gap between everyone and Boston College. So let's start with Boston College.

Boston College

Boston College has a new head coach in Frank Spaziani this season after their head coach (Jeff Jagodzinski) left the team to pursue NFL opportunities. Spaziani was the Eagle's excellent defensive coordinator.

In 2008, Boston College had arguably the best defense in the nation (with USC and UF having legitimate claims as well). BC had two monsters in the middle. Over 650lbs of defensive tackle tandem in B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, who would be selected in rounds 1 and 2 of the NFL draft, respectively. They also had a Butkus Award Finalist in linebacker Mark Herzlich, a certain 1st round pick had he elected to leave school. Tragically, he decided to return to school and was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer this off-season. Not many schools have three or four early round draft choice types on defense, but BC had just that in 2008, and they rode that defense to the ACC championship game. Boston College notched an incredible 26 interceptions, which led the nation. They did this by dominating 1st and 2nd down with their huge defensive line and linebacking corps, which allowed their secondary to focus almost solely on the pass. Interceptions come on 3rd and long and BC was great at forcing opposing offenses into 3rd and long. This year, BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season, and the burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that out opposing offenses in tough situations? BC hopes for the former but Vegas seems to think it is the latter.

On offense, BC was not great, but they weren't as bad as some might believe. Consider that they had to face the excellent defenses of Virgina Tech (twice), North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Florida State, and their numbers look a bit better. They have either the best or second-best offensive line in the ACC, led by Center Matt Tenannt and Left Tackle Anthony Costanzo, both of whom should eventually be first day draft choices. The wide receivers are experienced and are led by Rich Gunnell. The major question is quarterback, which our BC writers discuss below.

Your Boston College writers are Brian and Jeff of BC Interruption, one of the leading Boston College websites.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

BC will likely be better on the offensive side of the ball and worse on the defense side. Overall, this is probably a net loss. Unfortunately, this will show in the Eagles' final record. Notre Dame has a better chance of beating the Eagles this year (the game in South Bend). Our game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg is nearly a sure loss, and it's difficult to find definite wins on our ACC schedule. A record of 9-3 (5-3 ACC) is likely a best, best case scenario with anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 a possibility. In all liklihood the Eagles won't surpass their 2008 win total.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't know if you can call it an injury per se, but obviously the biggest void for the Eagles to fill this season is in the linebacking corps with the loss of All-American Linebacker Mark Herzlich. Add to this the uncertainty of when Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin will return from tearing his Achilles back in March, and the Eagles will need newcomers to step up at linebacker. The Eagles will look to sophomores Dominick LeGrande and Will Thompson to fill the holes left by Herzlich and McLaughlin. Spaziani will likely also rotate in redshirt freshmen Alex DiSanzo and Nick Clancy as well as senior Kevin Distaso. Of that group, however, only Will Thompson has significant experience as he played behind Robert Francois. These Eagles will hopefully step up, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to completely fill the void left by Herzlich and McLaughlin.

Incumbent starting quarterback Dominique Davis leaving for academic reasons might actually be a blessing in disguise. This allowed the Eagles to go out and recruit another quarterback in Dave Shinskie, who appears to be the front-runner for the starting position. Also, where Jeff Jagodzinski and Steve Logan favored more of the duel-threat style quarterback (Davis and Tuggle), early it appears Frank Spaziani and OC Gary Tranquill favor more of the traditional, pro-style quarterback (Shinskie, Marscovetra, Rettig, Bordner).

Less importantly, it would have been nice to see WR Clarence Megwa back in pads during the Eagles opening practices, however Megwa injured his right hand and has had to sit out of practice. If Megwa can get back on the field, he will join a talented wide receiving corps that has the potential to be one of the better units in the conference (provided the starting QB can get them the ball). Still, we are glad Megwa is back and has recovered from a fairly gruesome broken leg injury suffered vs. Clemson last season. Again, if the QB can get the receivers the ball, I would expect big things from seniors Rich Gunnell, Clarence Megwa and Justin Jarvis. Hopefully, Ifeanyi Momah will step up and serve as more than a goal-line, possession receiver.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Without a doubt, the preseason focus is on the starting quarterback position. We will only go as far as our starting quarterback will take us. Right now, the candidates are trying to shake off the rust in practice as no QB has any FBS game experience.

The Eagles proved last year that they could make noise in the ACC simply by having a competent, game-managing quarterback. If David Shinskie (or Tuggle/Marscovetra) can manage the game and not lose games a la Chris Crane, the Eagles will likely live up to or slightly surpass their preseason expectations. However, the starting quarterback will have to step up their game and be even better than Crane was last season if Eagles fans expect the team to overachieve this season. There are too many questions on the defensive side of the ball this season. To overachieve, BC will have to win the games they won last year with defense (Notre Dame, Virginia Tech round 1, Florida State) with their offense.

Boston College seems to always exceed expectations. Losing their highly regarded head coach and their three best players from a season ago make Boston College a major longshot to win the division this season. Very few teams have the ability to replace the players BC lost, and the Eagles aren't in that group of teams. Bowl Eligibility should be considered a major victory for the Eagles.

Key Note: Boston College's defensive line and linebackers are 160lbs lighter this year than last year (1902 to 1742). BC was huge in the front-7 in 2008, and this is a major drop-off.

Prediction: 5-7 (2-6 ACC) BC's off-season was rather devastating and will be too much to overcome.

Maryland Terrapins

Maryland was quite the enigma in 2008. They beat bowl teams in Nevada, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Cal, yet lost to middle Tennessee State and were shut out by Virginia! They do return their quarterback a running back, but their offensive line and wide receivers are major question marks. They return just 4 starters on defense, and are switching from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme, despite having a serious lack of depth along the defensive line.

Your Maryland writer is Ben Broman, of the excellent Maryland website Testudo Times:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Short version: They'll be better, but the record won't be.

There's a lot to like about Maryland this year - a game-seasoned, fifth-year senior QB; a deep, talented stable of RBs with a frontline All-ACC starter; nine (yes, nine) game-ready WRs; a likely improved secondary; and leaders returning from the linebacking corps. The new defense, instilled by former UMass head coach Don Brown, has been getting rave reviews and has torn through the offense without fail so far, utilizing surprise blitzes and press coverage. While the defensive line has been getting a bad rap in the media, the new scheme will take a lot of pressure off them, and the projected starters all either have experience or were highly touted out of HS. There's only one problem, but it's a sizable one: the offensive line. The group is talented, but very, very young, which could render all those skill players moot, particularly early on as they adapt to playing when it counts.

By the end of the year, I'm fairly confident that the line will have gelled together and the weak spots will have been shored up, meaning this team will be a bear to play late in the season. At that point, there's no doubt in my mind this year's Maryland will be better than last year's. They might even be better already. But last year's Maryland overachieved a little, winning in spite of a constant prevent defense; so while they may win head-to-head, besting 8 wins may be tough to do, especially in an improved ACC.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Injuries have been quiet in College Park this off-season. The only major player lost was probable starting DT Dion Armstrong. He left the team due to academic ineligibility and fitness problems, but no one was really counting on his presence come September (these issues had been known for awhile). He'll be replaced by redshirt freshman A.J. Francis and true freshman Zach Kerr. Both should be able to do an adequate job in filling that hole - both are as talented as Armstrong, and very underrated.

There are a few other newcomers who could contribute, notably PK Nick Ferrara, G Pete White, LBs Darin Drakeford and Avery Murray, and RBs Caleb Porzel and D.J. Adams. Ferrara is a scholarship kicker, so you'd expect him to be the starter. White is a massive, talented guard, a position that doesn't have a lot of depth. Both Drakeford and Murray enrolled in the spring to get a head start, and, because there's not a lot of depth at LB, could find themselves backups. Neither Porzel nor Adams are needed, but they're two of the most skilled and athletic players Maryland's brought in a long time, and have been impressing Ralph Friedgen in practice. Friedgen's known to be quick to burn RB redshirts, so the best of the two may see the field.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Unquestionably, the offensive line. As I've already said, they're the one huge weakness. If they can show that they're better than what people are saying, even if that only ends up being average, I'll be very confident about this team. If I had to single out one guy, I'd say LG Lamar Young - he's very talented, but reportedly has some issues with attitude, an issue a group this young doesn't need to deal with.

While he wasn't always incredibly productive, teams had to pay a ton of attention to wide receiver Darious Heyward-Bey. That won't be the case in 2009 as Bey is gone to the NFL (#7 overall choice.)

This Maryland team should take a step back. Their over/under for wins in vegas is 6, and there are 9/2 odds available if you are brave enough to project the Terps to win more than 6 games. Like Boston College, bowl eligibility should be considered a major victory for this team. They lost a bunch. The opening game at Cal is very likely to be a loss, probably of the blowout variety. They then get two very winnable games against James Madison and Middle Tennessee State, but Maryland should be big underdogs in 5 of their final 9 games. To be bowl eligible, they will need to win against Rutgers, Virginia, at Duke, & Boston College, or pull a big upset for each of those they lose.

This is Maryland, so anything crazy is possible, but poor line play on both offense and defense, combined with a lack of quality depth should keep the Terps home during Bowl Season. The Terps cannot sustain any injuries, particularly on defense. Projection: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

Wake Forest

Wake Forest had one of the best defenses in the nation last season, as profiled above. How they replace the departed defensive players and the play of their offensive line are the major issues facing the Deacons this year.

The best site for Wake Forest coverage is undoubtedly Blogger So Dear, the brainchild of Martin Rickman.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Wake Forest probably won't be better than last year, but they do have some chance. A program like Wake Forest can't replace 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round NFL draft choices on defense in one season, but they do have a 4-year starter at quarterback and stable of runningbacks. Vegas odds indicate it's very likely that Wake wins 7 games or fewer, but finishing 4-4 in conference play is doable, even if the team won't be as good, probably because of easier games against Boston College and Maryland.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Wake has been lucky this off-season and hasn't suffered any major injuries of note.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The offensive line. All five starters return from a group that was horrible last year, albeit somewhat because of injury. Wake must get their running game in order so that QB Riley Skinner doesn't have to force so many passes.

Expect Wake's defense to take a step back this season. Like Boston College, they depended largely on takeaways and those probably won't be there in the same quantity that they were last season. Only 4 starters back on defense puts extra pressure on the offense to win some early games. The game against Stanford should be particularly telling, as the Cardinal can really put up the points. If the offense can carry this team early, they have a shot to reach 8 wins. If the offense struggles, or the defense is worse than expected, Wake will be watching bowl season from their couch. Wake will likely be favored in 7 of their games, and 7 wins seems about right for this squad, as they pull off one upset and drop one game they should win, and take a minor step back from their fantastic 2008 season. Projection: 7-5, (3-5 ACC)

North Carolina State Wolfpack

The 'Pack almost had two different seasons in 2008. WIth and without quarterback Russel Wilson:

Wilson had an incredible 17-1 TD/ INT ratio last year.

via Dr. Saturday

They also were the only team in the conference that featured an offense that was significantly better than their defense (Georgia Tech an FSU also had offenses which were better than their defenses, but not close to the huge discrepancy the Wolfpack had).

With that in mind, we turn to James C. of the sarcastically named Yet Another NC State Sports Blog

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Yes, State will be better this year, and yes, it will show up in the record. The reasons are simple: a capable backup quarterback for Russell Wilson and eight home games on the schedule.

State faltered last season when forced to call upon the quarterbacks on the depth chart behind Wilson. Both Harrison Beck and Daniel Evans were turnover machines; to a person, every State fan that I've talked to knew the PapaJohns.com Bowl was over the moment it was announced Wilson wouldn't return for the second half. Forget the fact that State was up by 11...the game was over at that point.

This season should be different, however. Six-foot-six redshirt freshman QB Mike Glennon -- the best looking quarterback prospect State has had on campus since Philip Rivers -- throws a crisp ball with a quick release and, per teammates, is deceptively quick in the pocket. He's an unknown commodity at this point, but he continues to impress Tom O'Brien in practice. He's made more than one allusion to Matt Ryan when speaking of the young Glennon.

With eight home games and two games against FCS opponents (a last- second change to the schedule required picking up a second FCS opponent), State's record is almost guaranteed to be better this season. Out of conference, I see State going 3-1 against its two FCS foes and South Carolina and Pitt. Going .500 over the remaining conference slate would still put the Pack at 7-5 and into a bowl bid.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't think the ceiling for the Pack is as high as it was before losing All-Conference linebacker Nate Irving. Irving was the driving force behind State's defense last season when healthy, and he stood to be one of the league's best defenders before a car accident put him out of commission for the year. I don't know that any one player on State's roster can replace Irving, but Dwayne Maddox and Terrell Manning are two youngsters that could potentially make some noise in his place.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

State needs a running game. Bad. If Russell Wilson is to remain healthy for the full 12 games, State's running game has to step up and take some pressure off him. While the sight of Wilson scrambling is a nightmarish one for opposing defenses, it also puts the collective hearts of Wolfpack fans in their throats, hoping and praying this isn't the run that puts him out of commission for the rest of the year. So two units must step their games up in '09 -- the running backs and the offensive line. I'm a believer that everything on offense flows through the play of the OL, so if that comes together then I think everything else will fall into place. But bottom line -- State needs a two-pronged attack on offense to succeed this season.

Where I might've gotten brave in predicting nine or maybe even 10 wins prior to Irving's injury, I'm now thinking State will finish the regular season 8-4. That would be a solid step up and set the table for 2010 to be a tremendous season.

While NC State's offense was really a tale of two seasons, their defense was not. State's defense was just bad last season- definitely in the bottom half of the country. WIthout Irving, can they really be better? The signs of improvement at the end of last season were likely a product of playing two bad offenses (Wake and Duke), and two really sloppy offenses (Miami and North Carolina- combined 9 turnovers).

I applaud James for not being a homer in his evaluation and am torn between 8-4 and 7-5. There's a real chance State can start 7-0, but again, it depends on the offense taking a small step forward and the defense taking a big step forward. With Irving, I'd have said 8-4, but without Irving, I expect the 'Pack to lose 4 of their final 5 games, after starting 5-1, as they end up 7-5 (4-4 ACC).

Clemson

There are two fine Clemson websites out there for Clemson fans. First, Block-C (formerly Danny Ford is God), and ClempsonFootball.

Back on June 4th, I wrote this on why Clemson could win the Atlantic Division. It did not go over well with many 'Nole fans.

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 Hold on Noles fans. Let me explain! Where is the value in football? Along the lines and on defense. Quarterbacks are sexy. Linemen are not. This guy will never be on the cover of GQ:

via www.nflgridirongab.com

But he'll be paid millions upon millions of dollars because he weighs as much as a small elephant yet has the feet to win dancing with the stars.

Clemson's recruiting classes in 05-07 ranked 15th, 13th, and 16th nationally. Clemson has 15 starters from those 3 classes. That's 15 physically mature grown men who were very talented to begin with.

And Clemson isn't sexy. They lost their best wide receiver (Aaron kelley) and the 2nd leading all-time rusher in James Davis. They also lost their quarterback. Similar to UGA, people are writing Clemson off because they lost their recognizable players. They did not, however, lose their best players, and that's what I care about.

The Tigers were widely picked to dominate the ACC last year and flopped so poorly that their coach was fired. Clemson was as overhyped last year as they are underhyped this year. To understand why, let's review what happened to Clemson. They got smoked by an Alabama team who nobody realized was elite until much later in the season, then they suffered huge injuries to both lines, particularly on the offensive line where they had 9 different guys start a game! Their QB had serious personality issues, and he was a pocket passer type who suddenly had no pocket. They were 3-1, but then lost three very close games @ Maryland, @ Wake Forest, and against Georgia Tech by an average of less than a field goal. Know what I call that? Bad luck, and it's proven that everyone wins about half of their games decided by 7 points or less. Winning or losing a huge percentage of those is truly, variance. Clemson was 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. If they had gone 3-2, they'd probably be ranked in the top 15 to start this year.

So, did anything good come of their season? You bet. First, they got an excellent defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele to replace an already excellent defensive coordinator in Vic Koenig. Steele was at FSU forever, is considered one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and knows FSU's defensive scheme inside and out. Second, Clemson already played excellent defense last year. They were the 4th best defense in the country. Their points per game numbers don't show it because the offense set them up in horrible field position after horrible field position, but that ultra comprehensive system (linked above) shows their true performance level. Clemson will, have a defense that is in the conversation for "best in America", and I expect as many as 7 of these defenders to eventually be drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Finally, they got a lot of guys experience on the offensive line. Much like FSU, their offensive linemen took their lumps last year and will be much better this year. Clemson's OLine is probably more talented than FSU's, though I am not prepared to call them better. They received far less press because they didn't become so inexperienced until later in the season (brought on by injuries), while the Noles were very young from day one and got a lot of preseason press. This year, they bring back all 5 of their main starters and these guys are very talented and experienced.

At receiver, they return 2 of the top 3, and also have Dye (high 4* Junior), Jones (high 4* soph), McNeal 5* frosh, and Rendrick T aylor (Unproven, but a a greg jones/ cornelious ingram type athlete at tight end). Jamie Harper (another high 4* RB) is more than capable of replacing James Davis at running back to go with CJ Spiller. And at QB, they have Willie Korn and Kyle Parker (5* and 4* respectively). Both are very talented players and the chance is that one WILL play pretty well. Plus, Clemson's staff won't ask them to do much at all. Behind a very talented line, and a great running game (likely), they will be asked to manage the game, throw play action passes, and make plays with their legs. It's been proven that if you play NFL style ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position) in the ACC, you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and will play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.

What about the schedule? Clemson starts off @ GT on a Thursday night, but they play Middle Tennessee state before that, so it's effectively a bye week, they then get BC at home, go @ Maryland, get a bye week, play Wake Forest at home, then travel to Miami. They then come home and get Coastal Carolina (a bye week) before hosting FSU. FSU hasn't won at Clemson since before Chris Rix! They then play @ NCST, and finish at home with Virginia.

Clemson gets de facto bye weeks before their two most difficult games, and draw Virginia out of the Coastal, which is HUGE.

Playing at home, getting a bye week before FSU, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

Clemson 2009 looks to be similar to Ole Miss 2008. In 2007, Ole Miss:

*Went 0-3 in games decided by 4 points or less (the bad luck factor) (Like Clemson)
*Was loaded with talent from a coach who was a great recruiter (like Clemson)
* Fell way short of expectations (like Clemson)
* Fired their coach. (Like Clemson)

In 2008, Ole Miss team:

* Returned 16 starters from those elite recruiting classes, including 9 on defense. (Clemson returns 15, including 8 or 9 on defense)
* Had an elite defense, especially their defensive line. (Much like Clemson)
* Had a new coach to energize the program, including quality coordinators. (Like Clemson)
* Brought back an offensive line comprised almost entirely of talented upperclassmen (Like Clemson)
* Had a distinct lack of name skill-position talent (Like Clemson, except spiller)

And won the cotton bowl.

The point of this exercise is that just because you haven't heard of the talent on a squad doesn't mean that the talent is not there. Sometimes all it can take is a new coach or a lack of really bad luck to allow that talent to shine through. Ole Miss won games with excellent defense, and a 5* QB who had tons of time behind a talented and more experienced OLine, despite Jevan Snead being a first time starter.

Since I wrote that, a few things have happened to Clemson. They have remained mostly healthy, and named baseball star Kyle Parker their starting quarterback. The defense should againbe among the nation's best as they return almost everyone, including maybe the Nation's best defensive line. Playing at home against FSU, getting a bye week before the 'Noles (and a de facto bye week before Georgia Tech), and getting to play UVA (2 tough games against the Coastal Division) gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

The key will come down to how Clemson plays in 4 key ACC games. @ Georgia Tech, @ Miami, v. Florida State, and @ NC State. Provided they stay healthy on the offensive line, the offense should be improved.

Projection: 9-3 (5-3 ACC).

Florida State

FSU is covered here extensively. The Seminole offense was the best in the conference last year, and the defense was above average in the conference and top 25 nationally.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

FSU should be significantly better this season, but their record might not reflect it. FSU plays the toughest schedule in the nation, per Phil Steele and numerous other sources.

Sep. 7	Miami-FL	8, ESPN
Sep. 12	Jacksonville St.	6, ESPN360.com
Sep. 19	at BYU	7, VERSUS
Sep. 26	South Florida	TBA
Oct. 3	at Boston College	TBA
Oct. 10	Georgia Tech	TBA
Oct. 22	at North Carolina	8, ESPN
Oct. 31	NC State	TBA
Nov. 7	at Clemson	TBA
Nov. 14	at Wake Forest	TBA
Nov. 21	Maryland	TBA
Nov. 28	at Florida	3:30, CBS

It's doubtful any team would run through that slate unscathed, including the National Championship favorites. The 2009 FSU team would likely win 1 or 2 more games against last year's schedule. Against this current schedule, it is anyone's guess.

FSU lost fullbacks Seddrick Holloway and Marcus Sims to attrition, but neither projected to be a serious contributor as FSU moves to more two tight-end sets and away from the fullback.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The interior of the defensive line. FSU's run defense was horrible last season.

The defense cannot allow opposing offenses to hold onto the ball forever like some did last season. Getting the ball back to the offense will be key for FSU, as the offense will wear out opposing defenses.

Projection: FSU goes 9-3, 6-2 in the ACC, losing to UF, Clemson, and one other team in conference.

Coastal Division

Vegas says 4 teams have a legit shot to win this division: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. Duke and Virginia do not and neither have a legitimate chance to make a bowl game.

Let's start in reverse order, with VTech up first.

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech won the ACC last year and have won the Coastal division for almost every year it has existed. We have two ACC writers: GobblerCountry and College Game Balls. Take it away boys:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

GC: We'll be better and it will show in our record. He people over-hyping the Hokies this preseason forget that they're a team that lost four games last season. Tech may not win the ACC this year, but they won't lose four regular season games, either.

The talent on the offense has improved by leaps and bounds. It's just up to our offensive coordinator to utilize that talent. Other than quarterback, I think this team has better talent across the board than the 1999 team. But that team had a true difference-maker at quarterback.

If Tyrod Taylor turns into anything resembling a difference-maker, we'll be a special team.

CGB: If we aren't better, then I want my proverbial money back. 2008 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Hokies and lo and behold we win ten games (again), the ACC and the Orange Bowl. The only key players missing from ‘08 in ‘09 are DE Orion Martin, CB Macho Harris, LBs Purnell Sturdivant, Brent Warren and sigh QB Sean Glennon. With Bud Foster in charge I have faith we'll be able to overcome the losses on defense and the offense will be able to do more than enough to win ACC games.

As for our record, I am calling for us to win 11 games which is one better than last year. That's assuming we make it to and win the ACC Championship. That's why our trip to Atlanta is so crucial. And I'm not talking about the game versus Alabama, but our return trip against Georgia Tech. That's the must win game on our schedule.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

GC: We lost our returning leading rusher, battering ram and bell cow in Darren Evans. Without him, the Hokies no longer have someone they can rely on in short-yardage situations.

The newcomers expected to have an impact are led by Ryan Williams, who I expect to get the bulk of the carries by the middle of the season. Williams' debut is the most anticipated by Hokie fans since that of Kevin Jones. He's supposed to be a home run hitter who can break any play for six points.

CGB: As far as the Hokies are concerned these two questions go hand-in-hand. At the beginning of camp Darren Evans, our only returning running back with any major carries, tore his ACL and was zonked for the year. Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Josh Oglesby and Tony Gregory are grinding it out in camp to see who is going to carry the rock come Bama time. They have a whopping 38 collegiate carries among them, 100% belonging to practice-killa-game-chilla Oglesby.

Williams and Wilson are the big play threats missing from the backfield over the past couple of seasons and because of the hype surrounding their recruitment most Hokies want to see them leading the ground attack. So far replacing Evans has gone as well as filling out a TPS Report. Williams is a me-ist and Oglesby and Wilson suffered their own nagging injuries. Ultimately, they'll get their yards but none of these guys are going to punish defenses like Evans did.

Both Sergio Render (Phil Steele #1 guard) and Jason Worilds (Preseason ACC 1st Team) had off-season shoulder surgery that forced them to miss spring ball. They're both healthy and practicing, but worth keeping an eye on.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

GC: Just like every other year for the Hokies, it's the offensive line. They gave up the more sacks than any other ACC team even though they had a mobile quarterback under center for most of their games. The run blocking came along by the end of last year when Tech rolled up big rushing numbers against BC and Cincinnati. Hopefully that momentum can continue into 2009 and we can get better pass blocking.

CGB: Tyrod Taylor, our young but seasoned receivers Danny Coale, Jarrett Boykin, Dyrell Roberts, our offensive line, whoever replaces Darren Evans at running back and finally the entire offensive coaching staff Billy Hite, Curt Newsome and Bryan Stinespring need to get their act in check if we are going to make some national noise. Yes I am that frustrated with our offense over the last four seasons. The only offensive player I left off the list is TE Greg Boone because he catches balls, knocks defenders on their butt and takes snaps out of the Wild Turkey. He does it all excellently and if necessary he should be called on to gain our tough yards.

Projection: 9-3 (6-2 ACC). The Hokies hopes for a national title are unrealistic. They are in the group of very good but not elite ACC teams. They'll be recognized as the best ACC team, but that's because of their schedule- they avoid FSU and Clemson (the Atlantic's two best teams), and their road games are @ Duke, @ East Carolina, @ Maryland, and @ Virginia (only one of those teams should make a bowl game). Virginia Tech isn't significantly better than abut 4 other ACC teams, but their ACC schedule is far and away the easiest of any ACC team, with all of their tough games coming at home (except Georgia Tech).

Georgia Tech Yellowjackets

Georgia Tech surprised everyone last year under new Head Coach Paul Johnson. They have an excellent offensive attack that forces the defense to be very disciplined and defend every inch of the field. This is a team that put up 40+ on Georgia and 30+ on a number of other good defenses.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Your writers are Winfield Featherson, Bird, and Dane, of From The Rumble Seat

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Our team will definitely be better in all aspects offensively - QB play, running backs, wide receivers, and line play. Historically, Paul Johnson's teams always increase their production in both the passing and the running game during his second year as head coach. Our defense will have a gaping hole on the defensive line (except for standout end Derrick Morgan) but it will be greatly strengthened by a strong corps of linebackers and a veteran secondary.

Despite improvements in all positions minus the D-line, the ACC makes for a helluva conference slate alongside three SEC OOC games. It's possible that GT's record may not improve on last year's 9 wins but the team will improve by leaps and bounds. However, anything short of 9 wins would be a big disappointment for a majority of the optimistic Yellow Jacket faithful.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

First off, a majority of our injuries were minor and not season-threatening. The major set back was obviously Jaybo Shaw, our competent backup to Josh Nesbitt. He'll be succeeded by a lot of raw redshirt and true freshmen if CPJ decides to put a medical redshirt on Shaw. Roddie Jones' wrist injury set him back as far as contact drills go but it shouldn't limit his playing time and overall effectiveness. And hopefully all of our LB's will be good as gold come Jacksonville State though Kyle Jackson continues to have problems with his foot.

The best newcomer is definitely going to be Jarrard Tarrant. He had his assault charges dropped against him in February that kept him off the 2008 squad. Tarrant brings speed to the secondary and competency at punt returns - a HUGE PROBLEM for GT since Gailey's tenure. Look for Tarrant to play a key role on defense and in the field position battle.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

With Jaybo Shaw out, Tevin Washington and David Sims must prove themselves as comparable backups. This will be trial by fire as they will certainly be used in games. The kicking game, though minor in Paul Johnson's system, must stay strong. Scott Blair will probably be limited to only PAT's which will keep his leg from dying half way through the season. Various questions also surround our defensive line as we lost multiple players to the NFL.

Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC). GTech's schedule is very tough, with road games at Miami and Florida State. 9-3 would not surprise me.

Miami Hurricanes

A young Miami team went 7-6 last season behind an emerging offense and a poor defense. They then fired their offensive coordinator. Go figure. See the diagram above (under FSU) and look at how bad Miami's run defense was. Allowing 5 yards per rush attempt won't win many games. If Miami is to contend for the coastal division championship, they must shore up their run defense issues.

On offense, Miami has new coordinator Mark Wjipple, who will run a pro-style offense with lots of passes to the tight ends and running backs, QB Jacorry Harriss, RB's Cooper and James, and a ton of talented receivers including Aldarious Johnson and LaRon Byrd. Miami's only question on offense is their offensive line, which played poorly in 2008. If they are better, Miami will challenge FSU and Georgia Tech for the conference's top offense (and possibly for the division).

Unlike Virginia Tech, Miami plays both Clemson and FSU. They also play Oklahoma. But Miami is also very talented and if they beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, they have a shot at the division. Prediction: Miami will be a better team in 2009, but their record will again be 7-5 (4-4 ACC) due to a tough schedule.

For much more in-depth canes coverage, visit 7thFloorBlog.com

North Carolia Tarheels

North Carolina is doing a great rebuilding job under Butch Davis, who is bringing renewed energy to Chapel Hill, along with a big increase in talent.

On offense, Carolina lost all of their receivers (including two NFL guys), and their offensive line is very shaky. They go return their quarterback in T.J. Yates and a variety of solid runners, led by Shawn Droughn. Can they replace their lost wide receivers? Doubtful, but if the O-Line gels quickly they could use their running game to make up the difference.

Carolina had one of the better defenses in the nation last year, and should again excel on that side of the ball. They boast a huge front-7 which is excellent at stopping the run, allowing the secondary to play the pass.

Projection: 8-4 (4-4 ACC) UNC runs their weak non-conference slate with easy, wins at home against Duke and Virginia, and taking two of: @ GTech, FSU, @ Virginia Tech, Miami, @ Boston College, and @ NCST.

Virginia

Your writer is Brendan of From Old Virginia. Take it away, Brendan:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

I think I will be surprised if the answers to these questions aren't a unanimous yes, except for maybe from the reigning ACC champs. It's that time of year. Yes, we will be better, and it has everything to do with the offensive side of the ball. We have a new coordinator who is almost guaranteed to be an improvement because the old one couldn't have been much worse. We have two (semi-)new quarterbacks, practically a whole new set of receivers, a new playbook with a new system, and hopefully a new and improved Mikell Simpson to carry the ball.

But what's new isn't half of why I'm looking forward to seeing the offense. It has more to do with what's older, and more experienced: the offensive line. A new and inexperienced line is a surefire formula for underachieving; ours spent nearly all of last season learning to play together and gelling as a unit, and four of five starters return. There's the right mix of new blood and experience on this offense to really open some eyes this year.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Oh God - this question is here just for the sake of jinxing things, I just know it. Hopefully the football gods are not listening right at this moment, but Virginia hasn't had any significant, season-ending health issues - yet. Transfers and academic losses include defensive ends Andrew Devlin (formerly a tight end) and Kevin Crawford, tight end Rod Wheeler, and safety Rico Bell. There's also two freshman offensive linemen who didn't make it to the fall: Cody Wallace and Morgan Moses.

None were expected to start this year, and several of those wouldn't even have been on the two-deep. The depth at defensive end took a major hit though, and there will be some true freshmen who have to step up. Will Hill, our lone early enrollee, will be one, and there will probably be others. Most of the above losses are losses for good - these aren't like Jameel Sewell who had to spend a year getting eligible. The exceptions are Wallace and Moses, the freshmen. Wallace is probably a longshot at best to return, but Moses will begin his prep school career shortly and Virginia fans will be following it closely because Moses is three-hundred-thirty-twelve pounds of major-league talent.

As far as newcomers go, as with any team there will be plenty of former backups moving into a starting role. But there are three freshmen expected to make a major impact. WR Tim Smith is a tremendous talent as well as a true freshman and will be on the field from Day 1. In the backfield, redshirt frosh Torrey Mack is expected to share the load at running back, and classmate Steve Greer is a projected starter at inside linebacker. If you had to name three UVA freshmen to watch out for, it's far and away those three.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

I'll take this to mean, which player was a regular last year and needs to improve his game? Imaginary players are well-known to be fatal to coaching careers (original question posed was poorly phrased), and anyway we have basically an entire linebacking corps that is new to the starting gig. But new starters always need to step it up. Two players come to mind. On defense, there's DE Matt Conrath. He showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman and played very well as freshmen go. But the brand-new linebacking corps needs help from both front and back if they're going to be successful. With Clint Sintim gone, we need a pass rush threat, and Conrath is the guy everyone's looking at to consistently provide it. The defensive line needs to be huge to take pressure off the linebackers, and it starts with Conrath.

On offense, Mikell Simpson had a terrific 2007 - just ask Maryland. But he was having a really awful 2008 until it was cut short by a broken collarbone. He's now in an offense tailor-made to his talents. He's always been at his best in space, and excels when he's the target of screen passes and such. The offense will get him the ball with room to run - he must take advantage.

I expect UVA to narrowly miss out on a bowl game, going 5-7 (2-6 ACC). If they spring an upset against TCU, Maryland, or Georgia Tech, the Cavs will be bowling. But that also assumes they don't have any letdowns, which is probably unrealistic, so 5-7 it is.

Duke

The Blue Devils lost a ton from the surprising 2008 team. No team lost more letterman than Duke. Duke should continue to have one of the worst offenses in the country, and will be horrible running the ball. The defense should be slightly below average, which for Duke, is acceptable. Prediction: 2-10 (0-8). This is a major rebuilding year for Duke despite the recognizeable name at quarterback.

General ACC

Brandon Rink-On of http://ontheb-rink.com/blog answered the questions for us from a different perspective. Enjoy:

Every team believes they are a little better going into the season, but who will make the most improvement from season-to-season this year in the ACC? Georgia Tech? I don't know-last season was pretty good for
them. Clemson? Well, there are just too many unknowns there. My pick is Miami. They were a lot better team than they showed(or were coached) last season and should be more impressive this season. The
Canes will be led by a nasty defense that will wreak havoc on the Coastal. And the new offensive scheme has to be better than whatever their previous OC Turner was doing(which was?).

In the record, it will not quite translate into a division title, but they will be in contention(which is more than you can say for the last few years).

Virginia Tech is an easy one with the loss of one Darren Evans and key newcomer in Ryan Williams, but another team has caught my eye in the offseason. Let's say my team is Clemson, they lose two offensive
lineman, Barry Humphries to transfer and J.K. Jay to a back injury, and have a couple guys dinged up like their only real returning WR in Jacoby Ford. The starting five on the line is pretty solid for the Tigers, but

Tomahawk Nation presents "For Entertainment Purposes Only 2009": The Pre-Season Edition. Florida State is the Atlantic Favorite, but the Value Lies with Clemson

FSUncensored — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:08:19 -0000

If you're a sports fan, you know that nothing is guaranteed. The inherent drama of sport is what makes viewing so compelling. Sports are about probabilities, not absolutes. Guy's offering guaranteed victories on seemingly evenly matched teams are fools. When we evaluate a team, we attempt to ascertain just how good that team is. When sports fans talk about a prime-time matchup, they often make a prediction as to the outcome. They weigh the positives and negatives of each team, add in some other factors like injuries, home field advantage, weather, or jersey color. And it's even possible to make a great evaluation and still be wrong. Any number of non-skill factors could swing a game, like fumble recoveries, or whether an interception is returned for a touchdown. When I handicap a game, I try to answer the question "which outcome would happen more often?" I don't deal in absolutes, I deal in value. Understanding the Vegas line can offer a lot of insight into a team's true talent level.

With that, I welcome you to a season-long feature I like to call "For Entertainment Purposes Only." Last year, 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

[Editor's Note: This post discusses wagering but has a lot of football information, specifically about the 'Noles divisional opponents]

Yesterday, some of the major online casinos released their odds for the college football season. If it were legal, you could wager on who teams to win their division or conference. I provided a few of my selections, and they inspired a lot of discussion in the comment section. Inside, you'll see what got everyone so hot and bothered, and I'll give some further analysis on the initial wagers in the 2009's first edition of "For Entertainment Purposes Only!"

So, those picks...

If you find gambling tougher to understand than Chinese, don't worry, Understanding Sports Odds. In relevant part:

Step 1: Identify the type of line you are looking at. All online sports books offer you the chance to have your lines in an "American" or "Money line" version. If I were you, I would use this as my standard. An "American" line uses either a + or - before a number to indicate odds. So a -120 and a +120 are two very different odds on a team... I will explain the differences shortly. Two other less common variations exist: decimal odds and fractional odds (these are superior but Americans have trouble understanding for whatever reason, so in the interest of simplicity, I will not get into them)

Step 2: Identify the favorite. Lines with a "-" before the number (i.e. -200) indicate the favorite. A -200 should be read as: "For every $200 wagered, I win $100." When there is a negative sign, the line should always be read with relation to 100. That does not mean you have to bet that much, it's just easiest to understand! When a + sign is present, just reverse the reading, always keeping reference to 100:

Examples:

1) -150: For every $150 wagered, I win $100 ($50 wagered would win $33).
2) +300: For every $100 wagered, I win $300 ($50 wagered would win $150).
3) 100 (can be either +/-): For every $100 wagered, I win $100 ($50 wagered would win $50).
4) Most commonly: -110: For every $110 wagered, I win $100.

You see "4" most commonly because the extra $10 you have to bet to win $100 is called the "juice" that the books keep as a fee for making the line available to you. Think of it as a commission.

The most important thing you can teach yourself early on is: "Just because the books assign one side to be the favorite (even large, -200 or -300, favorites), does not mean that they will win." We have all seen favorites get upset, and it is important to avoid the temptation of finding comfort in the fact that the lines makers put one team as a favorite.

Got that? Good.

Here were the opening odds (I assume they have changed by now, much like stock prices would, but we'll visit what those changes mean for certain team's fortunes next week). Go ahead and look 'em over. Remember to use the more accurate method of picking games (proportional win shares).

To win the Atlantic Division
Boston College 5000
Clemson 350
Florida State 120
Maryland 800
North Carolina State 200
Wake Forest 300

To win the Coastal Division
Duke 2000
Georgia Tech 250
Miami 300
North Carolina 250
Virginia 1200
Virginia Tech 175

To win the Big 12 North
Colorado 500
Iowa State 2500
Kansas 175
Kansas State 650
Missouri 300
Nebraska 175

To win the Big 12 South
Baylor 1500
Oklahoma 150
Oklahoma State 600
Texas 100
Texas A&M 2000
Texas Tech 850

To win the SEC EAST
Florida -800
Georgia 500
Kentucky 2500
South Carolina 800
Tennessee 1200
Vanderbilt 5000

To win the SEC WEST
Alabama 200
Arkansas 650
Auburn 500
LSU 200
Mississippi 350
Mississippi State 1500

To win the ACC
Boston College 8000
Clemson 1000
Duke 5000
Florida State 250
Georgia Tech 650
Maryland 2000
Miami 500
North Carolina 500
North Carolina State 800
Virginia 2500
Virginia Tech 250
Wake Forest 1200

To win the Big East
Cincinnati 800
Connecticut 800
Louisville 1500
Pittsburgh 250
Rutgers 500
South Florida 250
Syracuse 5000
West Virginia 250

To win the Big 10
Illinois 600
Indiana 5000
Iowa 500
Michigan 1000
Michigan State 500
Minnesota 2000
Northwestern 2000
Ohio State 150
Penn State 250
Purdue 7500
Wisconsin 800

To win the Big 10
Baylor 2000
Colorado 1500
Iowa State 7500
Kansas 250
Kansas State 3000
Missouri 800
Nebraska 250
Oklahoma 150
Oklahoma State 800
Texas 150
Texas A&M 3000
Texas Tech 1200

To win the PAC10
Arizona 3000
Arizona State 1800
California 300
Oregon 300
Oregon State 800
Stanford 3000
UCLA 1000
Southern Cal -300
Washington 7500
Washington State 10000

To win the SEC
Alabama 300
Arkansas 1500
Auburn 800
Florida -300
Georgia 650
Kentucky 5000
LSU 200
Mississippi 500
Mississippi State 7500
South Carolina 1200
Tennessee 2000
Vanderbilt 7500

Take a look, figure out what you like, and we'll talk about what I went with. Ready? Here ya go:

Clemson to win the ACC +1000
VTech to win the Coastal +175
Nebraska to win the Big 12 North +175
Ole Miss to win the West: +350
Rutgers to win the Big East +500

I'll take them in order from least controversial to most controversial:

Rutgers to win the Big East +500 Rutgers is probably the 3rd best big east team, but they get 5 conference home games, their conference road games are @ UCONN (lost everything, unlikely to make a bowl), @ Louisville (again, terrible), and @ Syracuse (one of the worst teams in all of college football). Because they draw all their tough games at home, and because they get Cincinnati in their first game (the bearcats lost 10 of 11 defensive starters), they are a decent pick to win the division. That their odds are better than Pitt, USF, or WVU is a bonus. Again, scheduling matters. Also, they are strong along the lines despite lacking sexy named-skill position talent. There's value in +500.

Nebraska to win the Big 12 North +175 This is a schedule pick. The odds say that Nebraska and Kansas are the two favorites. This is a case of Vegas anticipating the public's laziness. It's a smart move on their part. Nebraska has by FAR the best offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12 North, and hey have excellent DB's as well. Kansas has terrible defensive linemen and linebackers. But the crux of this pick is again, scheduling.

Nebraska has: @ Missouri (who lost EVERYTHING, after a double bye week), Texas Tech at home, Iowa State, @ Baylor, Oklahoma, @ Kansas, Kansas State (the team that will finish 2nd in the north), and @ Colorado.

Compare that to Kansas' murderous schedule: Iowa State, @ Colorado, Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas, Missouri.

Nebraska dodges Texas and gets the rebuilding teams EARLY, before they can rebuild. Kansas plays Texas and has to play the rebuilding teams late (Missouri).

I wasn't sure I'd play this one, but then I saw that Colorado lost its best player (WR Smith, transfer). That sealed the deal.

VTech to win the Coastal +175 Virginia Tech is probably the best team in the Coastal division. I don't think there's much separation between them, GT, UNC, and Miami, and to be honest, I really am not comfortable calling them the best. That said, let's again go to the schedule, specifically each of the fout team's three Atlantic division games:

VT: Boston College, @ Maryland, NCST

GT: Clemson, @ FSU, Wake Forest

Miami: @ FSU, Clemson, @ Wake

UNC: FSU, @ BC, @ NCST

I'm very confident in saying Clemson and Florida State are the most talented teams in the Atlantic division. VT avoids both. They get NCST in Blacksburg. The other three contenders have difficult Atlantic division schedules. Thus, VTech is the pick.

Ole Miss to win the West: +350 Ole Miss is this year's sexy pick. Our readers remember that I was on them last year, even after they lost @ Wake Forest. I think the public is a year late on this team, but I still see value here. I don't believe Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC West. I think Bama is better and that Bama will have the 2nd best defense in the country (UF #1). This might come as a shock, but again, this is a schedule play. Ole Miss doesn't play UGA or UF. They get Bama, LSU, Arkansas, and Tennessee all at home. their conference road games rad at South Carolina (rebuilding year, and they get them early), @ Vanderbilt (not a likely bowl team), @ Auburn (should be better but not a ton better), and @ Mississippi State (awful).

I dismiss LSU's chances to win the division because they play @ UGA and also play UF, which Ole Miss and Bama do not play. This comes down to Ole Miss v. Bama. Ole Miss is +350, Bama is +200. I do not think that Bama is twice as likely to win this division as is Ole Miss, and thus I select Ole Miss as a value selection, despite not believing they will actually win the division.

Now to the pick y'all care about:

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 Hold on Noles fans. Let me explain! Where is the value in football? Along the lines and on defense. Quarterbacks are sexy. Linemen are not. This guy will never be on the cover of GQ:

via www.nflgridirongab.com

But he'll be paid millions upon millions of dollars because he weighs as much as a small elephant yet has the feet to win dancing with the stars and that wins games.

And Vegas has to overrate Quarterbacks, Wide receivers, and running backs because they have to create betting lines that don't make them susceptible to overexposure to certain highly public wagers. And where does the public form their opinion? The media, and most importantly, ESPN. And who produces content for ESPN? Writers, most of which don't necessarily scout these teams very well. And why should they? The average person doesn't want to know about a lineman. They want the running back.

Why else doesn't the public know about linemen? Sportswriters don't know what to look for. As you'll see in an upcoming piece (later this month) about FSU center Ryan McMahon, who is largely a product of FSU's media hype and playing as a freshman. ESPN's Bruce Feldman also comments on this:

If one coach really makes a strong case to some media members, he can get a certain player on or off an all-conference or even All-American team, especially if the player is a linemen or defensive back. Those positions are more dependent on the opinions of guys who have coaching insight.

Fantasy football has skewed the perception of what makes a quality football team. Ever draft an offensive lineman in your 12 team league? Didn't think so.

Honestly, ask yourself, when did you start hear about the linemen drafted in this past draft? March, right? Around the time of the combine, and long after the college season was over?

So back to Clemson, and I don't want to write an entire Clemson preview here, but I want to explain the justification for my wager.

Let's start with Talent. Clemson has that in bunches. You'll remember our article on FSU's failed 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes, where Jeff Bowden and his horrible staff failed to evaluate recruits and then took wild chances on kids who didn't want to play for FSU or who had serious academic and character issues. FSU has only 9 starters form those two recruiting classes. Only 9 senior or junior starters? Ouch! Recruiting really helps or hurts a team 3 and 4 years down the road.

Clemson's recruiting classes in 05-07 ranked 15th, 13th, and 16th nationally. FSU's ranked better, but those rankings don't account for kids who never qualify. In terms of who is still here from those classes, Clemson blows FSU away. Where FSU has 9 starters from the 05-07 classes, Clemson has 15. That's 15 physically mature grown men who were very talented to begin with.

And Clemson isn't sexy. They lost their best wide receiver (Aaron kelley) and the 2nd leading all-time rusher in James Davis. They also lost their quarterback. Similar to UGA, people are writing Clemson off because they lost their recognizable players. They did not, however, lose their best players, and that's what I care about.

The Tigers were widely picked to dominate the ACC last year and flopped so poorly that their coach was fired. Clemson was as overhyped last year as they are underhyped this year. To understand why, let's review what happened to Clemson. They got smoked by an Alabama team who nobody realized was elite until much later in the season, then they suffered huge injuries to both lines, particularly on the offensive line where they had 9 different guys start a game! Their QB had serious personality issues, and he was a pocket passer type who suddenly had no pocket. They were 3-1, but then lost three very close games @ Maryland, @ Wake Forest, and against Georgia Tech by an average of less than a field goal. Know what I call that? Bad luck, and it's proven that everyone wins about half of their games decided by 7 points or less. Winning or losing a huge percentage of those is truly, variance. Clemson was 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. If they had gone 3-2, they'd probably be ranked in the top 15 to start this year.

So, did anything good come of their season? You bet. First, they got an excellent defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele to replace an already excellent defensive coordinator in Vic Koenig. Steele was at FSU forever, is considered one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and knows FSU's defensive scheme inside and out. Second, Clemson already played excellent defense last year. They were the 4th best defense in the country. Their points per game numbers don't show it because the offense set them up in horrible field position after horrible field position, but that ultra comprehensive system (linked above) shows their true performance level. Clemson will, have a defense that is in the conversation for "best in America", and I expect as many as 7 of these defenders to eventually be drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Finally, they got a lot of guys experience on the offensive line. Much like FSU, their offensive linemen took their lumps last year and will be much better this year. Clemson's OLine is probably more talented than FSU's, though I am not prepared to call them better. They received far less press because they didn't become so inexperienced until later in the season (brought on by injuries), while the Noles were very young from day one and got a lot of preseason press. This year, they bring back all 5 of their main starters and these guys are very talented and experienced.

At receiver, they return 2 of the top 3, and also have Dye (high 4* Junior), Jones (high 4* soph), McNeal 5* frosh, and Rendrick T aylor (Unproven, but a a greg jones/ cornelious ingram type athlete at tight end). Jamie Harper (another high 4* RB) is more than capable of replacing James Davis at running back to go with CJ Spiller. And at QB, they have Willie Korn and Kyle Parker (5* and 4* respectively). Both are very talented players and the chance is that one WILL play pretty well. Plus, Clemson's staff won't ask them to do much at all. Behind a very talented line, and a great running game (likely), they will be asked to manage the game, throw play action passes, and make plays with their legs. It's been proven that if you play NFL style ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position) in the ACC, you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and will play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.

What about the schedule? Clemson starts off @ GT on a Thursday night, but they play Middle Tennessee state before that, so it's effectively a bye week, they then get BC at home, go @ Maryland, get a bye week, play Wake Forest at home, then travel to Miami. They then come home and get Coastal Carolina (a bye week) before hosting FSU. FSU hasn't won at Clemson since before Chris Rix! They then play @ NCST, and finish at home with Virginia.

FSU's schedule, as you know, does not have Virginia or Duke and that is a major detriment. Clemson gets de facto bye weeks before their two most difficult games, and draw Virginia out of the Coastal, which is HUGE, which means that in addition to playing FSU in Clemson, the Tigers do not have to play 3 difficult Coastal games, but rather two.

I believe FSU is as good as Clemson and that the 'Noles have a decent shot to win the division, but Clemson has the better schedule to win the division. Florida State faces a massive battle with attrition as they trek through this schedule. The Noles do not have quality depth because while Jeff Bowden was busy being one of the worst coaches ever, Tommy was busy killing his dad and brother in recruiting (when you consider who actually made it into school and not prison). Those players, from 2006 and 2007 are now Seniors and Juniors, and their veteran talent is much better than ours. Playing at home, getting a bye week before FSU, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

Let's play guess a team, okay? In 2007, this team:

*Went 0-3 in games decided by 4 points or less (the bad luck factor) (Like Clemson)
*Was loaded with talent from a coach who was a great recruiter (like Clemson)
* Went 3-10, including 0-8 in conference despite high expectations.
* Fired their coach at the end of 2007. (Like Clemson)

In 2008, this team:

* Returned 16 starters from those elite recruiting classes, including 9 on defense. (Clemson returns 15, including 8 or 9 on defense)
* Had a Five-Star QB who hadn't played before (Much like Clemson's Willie Korn)
* Had an elite defense, especially their defensive line. (Much like Clemson)
* Had a new coach to energize the program, including quality coordinators. (Like Clemson)
* Brought back an offensive line entirely of talented upperclassmen (Like Clemson)
* Had a distinct lack of name skill-position talent (Like Clemson, except spiller)

And won the cotton bowl. This team was Ole Miss.

The point of this exercise is that just because you haven't heard of the talent on a squad doesn't mean that the talent is not there. Sometimes all it can take is a new coach or a lack of really bad luck to allow that talent to shine through. Ole Miss won games with excellent defense, and a 5* QB who had tons of time behind a talented and more experienced OLine, despite Jevan Snead being a first time starter.

But this does not mean I am picking Clemson to WIN the division. Rather, this means that I believe Clemson has about a 40% chance to win, as does FSU. NCST has about a 15% chance (I don't buy their defense yet), with everyone else having major rebuilding years in the Atlantic. The reason I make this wager is value. If I feel two teams have an equal or similar shot to win something, I will choose the team with the +350 odds over the team with the +120 odds. It's just value.

But I didn't pick them for the Division at +350, I picked them for the conference, at +1000. The rationale is simple: If I like them for the division, would I like them for the championship game as well, and if so, how much added value is needed to make the Conference wager more attractive than the division wager? I do like them for the division at +350, and +1000 is 50% more than double +350 for a game they'd probably be slight underdogs in, so the conference selection is more attractive than the division selection.

The Noles can beat the Tigers for the Atlantic, but they have work to do and will need to catch a few breaks as well. You can bet Jimbo Fisher knows this. I've had multiple readers tell me he believes Clemson is the team to beat in the Atlantic.

Until next time...

GO NOLES!!

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