SB Nation - Patrick Mahnke

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

A Statistical Look: Colorado Buffaloes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

irish1611 — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:00:23 -0000

Back by popular demand, here is a statistical look at the upcoming game against West Virginia. Not pretty!

Advantage

	National	Conf	Actual	Category	Actual	Conf	National
	Rank	Rank	Actual	Category	Actual	Rank	Rank
West Virginia	111	11	91.67	Rushing Offense	192.33	2	34
West Virginia	37	8	251	Passing Offense	293	2	15
West Virginia	103	12	105.75	Passing Efficiency	148.33	4	33
West Virginia	84	12	342.67	Total Offense	485.33	1	10
West Virginia	69	10	26.33	Scoring Offense	32.67	4	35
West Virginia	103	12	183	Rushing Defense	83.67	3	14
Colorado	77	9	227	Pass Defense	228.33	5	81
West Virginia	100	12	144.32	Pass Efficiency Defense	119.2	4	56
West Virginia	101	12	410	Total Defense	312	4	35
Colorado	77	12	25.67	Scoring Defense	27	7	83
Colorado	38	7	37.4	Net Punting	36.38	6	51
West Virginia	97	12	4.29	Punt Returns	9.43	3	60
Colorado	35	5	24.87	Kickoff Returns	22.2	5	54
Colorado	89	12	-0.67	Turnover Margin	-2.33	8	116
West Virginia	40	8	2.33	Sacks	3	3	12
West Virginia	T-79	10	5	Tackles For Loss	7	4	25
West Virginia	96	12	2.67	Sacks Allowed	1	3	24

Colorado under Dan Hawkins is 2 - 2 after a bye. West Virginia is 5 - 2 after a bye since 2006. Colorado is 1 - 5 on road at night since Hawkins arrival while West Virginia is 5 - 2 at home at night since 2006. West Virginia's overall home record since 2006 is 18 - 3.

West Virginia, as expected, has the advantage on paper. A few glimmers of hope are attached to the turnover margin and scoring defense. Aided by the Wyoming shut out last week, Colorado's scoring defense improved drastically from a few weeks ago. West Virginia's defense has given up 27 points a game - 20 to Liberty, 20 to Eastern Carolina and 41 to Auburn. This defense has been scored on this year.

The final piece of hope just looking at the stats is the turnover margin. Last week, West Virginia turned the ball over six times to an opportunistic Auburn team. If the Buffs want to win their first road game in two years and the third total since Dan Hawkins has been head coach, Colorado's defense needs to play aggressive and force turnovers. West Virginia has protected Jarrett Brown well, only giving up one sack on average a game. That being said, Colorado will have to walk the fine line of committing extra players for a pass rush while avoiding the big play from RB Noel Devine and Brown. If Colorado's defense contains the West Virginia offense tomorrow, it will be because the secondary. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins needs to feel confident that he can allow the linebackers to roam around the line of scrimmage to stop Devine and pressure Brown. That means leaving the safeties and corners on an island, keeping big plays to a minimum. This would be a great time to see Jimmy Smith, Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Ben Burney, Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins to make big plays, force a few turnovers and be consistent.

Any strong play from the defensive line is a bonus but I expect West Virginia to try and get them on skates early with a heavy dose of Devine. It will be key for the defensive line fill the gaps and play strong assignment football. A big part of being successful against the zone-read is to occupy your gaps and fill areas so the linebackers can make plays at the point of attack. If the defensive line plays out of position tomorrow it could be a very long day.

If the defense can get Brown and the West Virginia offense off the field the first few series and all the Buffs' running game to get in a rhythm, who knows what can happen. Colorado needs to play a perfect game on the road, get turnovers and find a way to have more big plays than West Virginia.

Players stats after the jump. Check back later for more discussion on the offense and the keys to the game.

Conf	National	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	National	Conf
Rank	Rank	Actual	Player	Category	Player	Actual	Rank	Rank
		85.5	Rodney Stewart	Rushing	Noel Devine	106.67	16	2
12		105.74	Cody Hawkins	Passing Efficiency (Min. 15 Att./Game)	Jarrett Brown	151.16	28	4
7	T-49	229.33	Cody Hawkins	Total Offense	Jarrett Brown	335.33	6	1
5	T-22	6.67	Scotty McKnight	Receptions Per Game	Jock Sanders	9.67	3	1
9	48	75.67	Scotty McKnight	Receiving Yards Per Game	Jock Sanders	103	T-16	3
T-5	T-72	0.33	Benjamin Burney	Interceptions	Robert Sands	0.33	T-72	T-6
12	71	4.29	Jason Espinoza	Punt Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Jock Sanders	14.75	22	1
		26.3	Darrell Scott	Kickoff Returns (Min. 1.2 Ret./Game)	Mark Rodgers	26.6	32	3
21		6.33	Aric Goodman	Scoring	Noel Devine	10	T-21	3
23		76.33	Scotty McKnight	All-Purpose Runners	Noel Devine	142	32	2
T-10	T-58	0.67	B.J. Beatty	Sacks	Julian Miller	0.83	T-27	4
T-7	T-61	8.67	Jeff Smart	Tackles	Jt Thomas	7.33		6
		6.33	Cha'pelle Brown		Brandon Hogan	6.67		10
		6	Jimmy Smith		Pat Lazear	5		T-25
T-16		1	B.J. Beatty	Tackles For Loss	Jt Thomas	1.5	T-27	3
					Julian Miller	1.33	T-52	5
					Pat Lazear	1.17	T-73	8

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Week 3

TB — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 00:13:32 -0000

via assets.sbnation.com

This week, Mark over at Clone Chronicles is the host to the Roundtable. And, you guessed it, we're back with triple the fun in response.

1. The Big 12 has looked more unimpressive than impressive thus far. Do you attribute this to early season struggles, or does the conference look to have regressed from '08? Please explain.

BracketCat: I guess it depends on how you define regression. Are we going to have three 11-1 teams? Probably not. Is the league's top 8 going to be much more competitive and balanced? Yeah. Kansas is better; Nebraska probably is better; Missouri might actually be a little better; Oklahoma State, despite the Houston loss, probably is better; Oklahoma is a little worse; Texas is the same or maybe a little better; Texas Tech is a little worse, but not as much as people think; and Baylor and Texas A&M appear to be much improved.

I think the league as a whole is better, and the North will be more competitive with the South, but there only is one serious national title contender this season, not three. That will hurt our national profile, but the national media were overrating the top anyway. (OSU on the SI cover BEFORE they beat anybody of substance? Really?) The only true "disappointments" are the bottom three North teams, and nobody but Phil Steele expected them to be good anyway.

Panjandrum: I think college football as a whole is entering a dark, new territory that's going to rock it's world in the next ten years. Every year since the 85-man scholarship limit has been in effect, parity has sank in more and more. Teams like Kansas State and Virginia Tech in the 90's started to rise up and take prominence. Neither team had inherent advantages in location, exposure, tradition, etc., but they did creative things to get their name out there. Snyder started the whole 'soft-scheduling' that's all the rage, and Beamer took advantage of cable networks and got his team on TV all of the time. Good coaching here, a few superstars there, and next thing you know...voila...the era of big football party crashing began. From there, it was a matter of time before Utah, Boise St., Hawaii, etc. found a way to get into the BCS and into the public consciousness. Every conference gets on TV nowadays, and there's all kinds of talent to go around. Offenses have evolved so that teams can move the chains without dominant offensive linemen and a few key skill position players.

I'm rambling, but the fact of the matter is that this is the natural progression of things. Certain teams that have more money than God have the inherent advantage, but they will still stumble from time to time. Inevitably, there will come a day that parity is so great that a playoff will be unavoidable, and the NCAA will have a crisis on it's hands as the have's will want to split from the have not's because they don't want to share a piece of the pie.

So, long story short, everyone's getting to be around the same general place. Like the NFL.

Man, I've been watching too much "Lost" lately. My brain is all kinds of paranoid.

TB: Merely a regression from a banner year last season. It's not very often you're going to have three 11-1 teams that each have a legitimate claim to playing in the conference title game and, if they win, the national title game. Texas was the only of those three that brought back its key components and, while it appeared after week one that Oklahoma State may step into its role as "this year's Tech," that ended last week as the Coogs shocked 'em.

One thing is for sure, and that is the North's struggles. With all due respect to my colleague rockchalk -- and he is deserving of much respect -- this season is more likely to rival 2004 as the North's worst showing than it is to be its best. Given that Nebraska, Missouri and KU have shown they'll probably hang around the fringes of the top 25, it likely won't be as bad as the year CU backed into the conference title game at 4-4 and promptly got shellacked by OU. But it's also going to be a far cry from the 1990s, when you could count on Nebraska, K-State and Colorado to be in the hunt nationally.

Edit: Yeah, definitely should have read RCT's Roundtable from this week, too. My bad.

2. When looking at our team's schedule, sometimes it's hard to get excited about non-conference portion of the schedule, except for maybe 1 game. In general, are you content with your team's non-conference scheduling? Is there an opponent you'd like to see on a regular basis, that you currently do not?

BracketCat: Our schedule is way too damn hard, considering how bad we are. Thanks for nothing, Ron Prince. Once we get back to being a decent program, I'd like to see one solid BCS squad on there for a home-and-home every year, but I doubt Bill Snyder agrees with me. It's too bad, because our series with USC in 2001 and 2002 were some of the most exciting games I have seen us play.

Panjandrum: I don't care about specific opponents. My preference would be an FCS team to start off with, a couple of mid-majors, and one BCS game every year. That seems like a good balance to me.

TB: Our schedule this year borders on terrible. We have two games against FCS teams, are on the road against UCLA, and play a road game against a Sun Belt opponent. That's stupid. It's like Louisiana had the same leverage Ron Prince had over someone in our athletic department. Given that we had a new coach with a complicated scheme and players that had zero confidence after the last two years, we needed a "typical Bill Snyder schedule" this season. All home games, no BCS conference opponents, only one FCS team so that six wins is all that's required for a bowl.

Ordinarily, I'd like to see no FCS teams, three teams from the lower levels of FBS, and one BCS opponents of any degree of competence. As RPT said over at Rock M Nation, we have zero incentive to schedule up, as KU and Texas Tech have proven.

3. Over the years we've seen a fair share of teams lose the week they appear on the SI cover. Does the "SI Curse" exist, is it a coincidence, or is it something that we only take notice of when it rings true (but forget when it does not)? Explain.

BracketCat: I don't think it's a coincidence or a curse; I think it's a correlation. SI tends to profile trends that are surprising, out of the ordinary or striking in their suddenness. Well, those explosive trends also tend to be the ones that regress to the mean the swiftest, too. By the time SI gets on the boat, I think many phenomena already have begun to run their course. Call it the delayed recognition effect, if you will. (Can you tell I was a political science major with an emphasis on quantitative analysis?)

Panjandrum: Yes, the SI curse exists. I truthfully believe there is a correlation between being on the cover of SI and thinking you've finally made it, leading to less effort. However, the truth is that most of these teams haven't.

TB: It's a coincidence. The photo on Sports Illustrated's cover does not hold some magical powers that cause the team featured to lose. Now, it may be associated with losing in the sense that some teams don't handle success very well, but that's certainly not the magazine's fault.

4. What is the biggest question your team has to answer heading into Week 3?

BracketCat: Well, we're probably not going to win, so it'd be nice to see if our kicker actually can make his first field goal of the season. I'd take that as a moral victory. I'd like to say that it would be nice to see either Carson Coffman or Grant Gregory step up and claim the QB job for good, but they both have looked like such unmitigated crap this season that I think that would be a pipe dream. A crack-pipe dream, that is.

Panjandrum: The biggest question? Hell, I don't know. The biggest question is how many damn questions do we really have?

TB: It's a tossup between finding some consistency at quarterback and fixing the disasters on special teams. Carson Coffman was bad enough early against UL that Snyder pulled him for Grant Gregory, who was worse. Coffman wasn't bad in the second half, kind of like he wasn't bad in the second quarter against UMass, but that's not enough. On the other hand, we have had turnovers and mistakes galore on special teams this year, including two missed field goals, a mishandled snap, and a missed extra point last week.

5. Choose an Offensive Player of the Week (non-QB to make it a little more interesting) and Defensive Player of the Week from Week 2. Provide solid arguments for each.

BracketCat: I'll pick three offensive players. Jake Sharp had a nice little game, from what I can see (didn't watch it). Daniel Thomas rushed for over 130 yards, ran for a TD and threw a Tim Tebow-style jump pass out of the Wildcat formation. More importantly, he pretty much is the entire K-State offense and almost single-handedly led us back in the second half to take a brief lead. (And he's the 10th leading rusher in the nation right now.) Finally, Dez Bryant may have lost, but I nominate him over all other Big 12 wide receivers because his punt return in the second half got Oklahoma State back into the game and simply was electrifying. (And if you could pick QBs, how could it not be Taylor Potts, he of the SEVEN TD passes?)

Defensive player is trickier, since I haven't seen a lot of stats from this week. I guess I'll cheap out and nominate the entire Oklahoma defense, since they did get the shutout. Yes, it only was Idaho State, but it's hard to get a goose egg against anyone in the age of spread offenses. Dishonor of the Week, of course, goes to the Colorado defense, and specifically Colorado safety Patrick Mahnke, who played some of the worst pass (and run, for that matter) defense I have seen from a team coached by someone other than Ron Prince in a long time.

Panjandrum: Uh, when you throw for 450+, and you toss 7TD's, my money goes on that guy (Taylor Potts). On defense, I'm goin' with 'Spoon (Sean Weatherspoon). Fourteen tackles is a lot, and he was huge in MU's victory this week. I'm tossing the game ball to him.

TB: Offensive Player of the Week: Jake Sharp, RB, KU
Defensive Player of the Week: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

Power Poll

BracketCat:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma (Dominating effort with Sam Bradford back pushes them back to second... for now. It helps that BYU looks like a legit Top 10 team.)
3. Oklahoma State (I'm still being generous, given how bad that defensive effort was, but I think they will improve. I don't think Houston is as good as BYU.)
4. Kansas (So far, the Jayhawks are winning with defense and running game, two things they sucked at last year, while Todd Reesing does just enough to secure the win.)
5. Nebraska (Can't wait to see the Huskers play Virginia Tech, so we finally can find out what they're made of.)
6. Missouri
7. Texas Tech
8. Baylor
9. Texas A&M
10. Kansas State
11. Iowa State (Disagree all you want, but even as terrible as Carson Coffman has been, he still only has thrown half as many picks as Austin Arnaud. And the Wildcats lost on the road and were not blown out.)
12. Colorado

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Nebraska
4. Kansas
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Texas Tech
7. Missouri

8. Baylor
9. Texas A&M
10. Kansas State

10. Iowa State

10. Colorado

I'm just ranking KSU, ISU, and Colorado in a tie for last because they all royally suck right now.

TB:

1. Texas -- Until further notice, they are clearly the best team in the conference right now. Slow start against Wyoming was concerning, but they handled their business.
2. Oklahoma State -- Call me crazy, and I know some of you will, but I still think they're the second best team in the South. I think Houston is going to surprise a lot of people with how good they are this year, so I don't think it's as bad of a loss as some think.
3. Oklahoma -- Losing 64-0 to a team with Landry Jones at QB is really indicative of how bad Idaho State is. Still, impressive that the Sooners didn't just go through the motions and slug out an uninspired victory.
4. Missouri -- Despite narrow victory over Bowling Green, I'm keeping the Tigers here for now.
5. KU -- Defense was dominating against UTEP, which was unexpected against a C-USA team known for its offense. Need to show me something against a better opponent before I consider moving them ahead of Mizzou.
6. Nebraska -- Huskers have won both games easily, and yet, and yet...something seems to be missing. A true playmaker on offense may be that something.
7. Baylor -- Bears were off this week, and nobody behind them did anything to move them down, so they stay right where they were.
8. Texas A&M -- See answer to previous question.
9. Texas Tech -- A good argument can be made that they should move up from last week after the big win over Rice. I'm holding off and here is why. Yes, Taylor Potts looked like a golden god against Rice, but it's not like Rice plays any defense anyway. And oh, that Tech rushing game is a disaster.
10. K-State -- Really should probably just follow my colleague's lead and put ISU and CU in a tie for 10th here. Cats only retain this spot because Iowa State got slaughtered by Iowa and CU went to its Waterloo in Toledo.
11. Iowa State -- Remember how Austen Arnaud looked pretty good against NDSU in week one? Yeah, neither do I, because I'm still reeling from his four-interception performance against Iowa.
12. Colorado -- Not much to say here. My team is pretty bad, too, so I shouldn't be making any comments.

Tuesday Buff Bites: Colorado Will TRY to Work Darrell Scott Into the Mix

irish1611 — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 04:12:46 -0000

CU’s Scott anxious for more carries : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado
Supposedly there is another article coming out in tomorrow's Denver Post that portrays Darrell Scott's frustration with the offense last week. Here is a first taste:

"I was warm. I was hyped. I was ready," Scott said. Apparently, Scott and running backs coach Darian Hagan talked over things the next day. "After meetings (Monday) it was like, ‘We’re going to try to work you in,’’’ Scott said. "That kind of reassured me on everything. We’ll see on Friday. "(Getting carries) is what I was recruited for. We’ll see."

We are going to "try" to work you in? There is no try, only do! I absolutely feel for the kid.

104.3 The Fan - Scott Hastings and Alfred Williams Talk Colorado Buffaloes Football
I guess this is the nice version but Alfred Williams was none too happy with the Buffaloes performance before this interview with Dave Lapham of FSN. Scott Hastings makes fun of Hawkins' comment about Darrell Scott being nicked so he couldn't get rushing attempts but still was able to return kickoffs.

Dan Hawkins: Cody must perform to keep job : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado
I'm confused. So Tyler Hansen's redshirt will come off if Cody Hawkins gets hurt or doesn't perform up to par? Who knows what the plan is but if this is the case, you have to wonder where the "underperforming" line is:

At his weekly media luncheon today, Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said it is not set in stone that junior Cody Hawkins will be the starting quarterback for the entire season — even if his son stays healthy. The coach said that players must perform to earn and keep their spots, quarterbacks included. Although the plan is for sophomore Tyler Hansen to sit out the season as a redshirt, things could change. "(Hansen’s redshirt) could all go out the window, in a variety of ways," Dan Hawkins said. "If Cody just ends up not getting it done … there’s a lot of situations (that could change things). "You’ve got to play well. You’ve got to play well at the spot. But there is never a set of rules that govern that. That’s always a judgment call.’’

Scout.com: UT/Colorado Game Notes
From the Toledo scout.com site. Remember Toledo has beat a BCS team each of the last three years and the last two Big 12 teams who played in the Glass Bowl left with losses. The Buffs will try to avoid being the third:

This will be the third Big 12 opponent to come to the Glass Bowl in the last four years. Toledo is 2-0 in the two previous contests with a 37-31 2OT win over Kansas in 2006 and a 36-35 victory over Iowa State in 2007. Toledo has also defeated a BCS opponent in each of the last three years, and will be gunning for a fourth straight year with a win over a BCS team Friday night. Toledo comes into the game 0-1, but had a strong offensive showing at Purdue in a 52-31 loss. Senior QB Aaron Opelt completed 41 of 67 passes for 423 yards and three touchdowns. He leads the nation in passing yards and pass attempts. Senior wide receiver Stephen Williams collected 15 catches for 185 yards and two touchdowns in the game, while true freshman receiver Eric Page added 12 receptions for 128 yards and one touchdown. Senior wide receiver Robin Bailey also added 6 receptions for the Rockets.

Hawk: Early Emotion Was There vs. CSU - CUBuffs.com
Here is a few status updates on some players:

McKnight should be able to play Friday night at Toledo (7 p.m. MDT, ESPN) and center Mike Iltis (sprained ankle) also is expected to play. The status of safety Patrick Mahnke (sprained ankle) isn't known yet . . . . Dan Hawkins said he hopes to get increased contributions from receivers Andre Simmons and Anthony Wright as the weeks progress.

CU foe Rockets look to the air : All Things Colorado Sports Colorado
Toledo senior quarterback Aaron Opelt was named offensive player of the week for the Mid-American Conference’s West Division after throwing for 423 yards and three touchdowns Saturday in a 52-31 loss at Purdue. Rockets coach Tim Beckman told the Toledo Blade: "(Opelt) might throw it a hundred (times) if we have to (against Colorado). Whatever it takes to win."

More Buff Bites after the jump...

Hawkins Press Conference Quotes - CUBuffs.com
University of Colorado head football coach Dan Hawkins held his weekly press luncheon Tuesday at the Dal Ward Athletic Center. He recapped last week's game against Colorado State and previewed Friday's showdown against the Toledo Rockets.

OTC: MU’s Gabbert Amazes / Snyder’s KSU Not So Much | KC Confidential.com
The University of Colorado is getting ridiculed all over the nation:

"For people who were looking or hoping for Colorado to be the dark horse, well, that’s fine. The Colorado offensive line play was terrible!" Steven St. John, in a not-so-subtle message to KK and Clink, who both picked the Buffs to win the North, 810 AM GH: It appears the North can be divided into the haves and have nots. CU, ISU and KSU look to be hapless. Of these three, the Cyclones may be the only one who ekes out a conference win. The Colorado/K-State game could end in a scoreless tie.

Big 12 power rankings - College Football Nation - ESPN
Tim Griffin is letting the Buffs have it this week and rightfully so;

12. Colorado: So much for much "Hawk Love" with this team. The Buffaloes were humiliated in their own stadium as Colorado State jumped on them early and dictated the tempo from the opening snap. They were gashed for too many big plays and couldn’t run the ball when they needed to. And that debacle is followed by a tough road trip to Toledo to play on a short work week.

CU players not about to push panic button - The Denver Post

Buffs Rippy, Stewart will head home for Toledo game - Boulder Daily Camera

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Colorado Buffaloes Team Capsule

irish1611 — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 08:36:59 -0000

If the Buffs are to realize their goals for 2009, Cody Hawkins' and the entire offenses' performance much improve from their 95th total offense ranking a year ago.

View full size photo »

Coach: Dan Hawkins enters his third season at Colorado (13-24, 0 - 1 in postseason).
Coaching Changes: Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau (replaces Mark Helfrich - Oregon), Offensive Line Coach Denver Johnson (replaces Jeff Grimes - Auburn), Defensive Consultant/Linebackers Bob Foster added to roster, Dan Hawkins to coach Wide Receivers.
2008 Record: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in Big 12
Players Returning with '08 Starts:
- Offense: 15 - WR Scotty McKnight, LT Nate Solder, LG Blake Behrens, RT Matthew Bahr, TE Riar Geer, TE Ryan Deehan, QB Cody Hawkins, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart, RB Demetrius Sumler, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Darrell Scott, FB Jack Behrens, OG Ryan Miller, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner.
  - 64% (85 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Defense: 9 - DE Marquez Herrod, LB Jeff Smart, LB Shaun Mohler, CB Cha'pelle Brown, S Anthony Perkins, S Patrick Mahnke, CB Jimmy Smith, CB Jalil Brown, LB Michael Sipili
  - 39% (51 out of 132 player starts) of 2008 starts return in 2009.
- Special teams: 2 - P Matt DiLallo, PK Aric Goodman.
Key Positions to Replace From 2008 - Defensive Line, Center, Safety
Key Losses from 2008: LB Brad Jones, S Ryan Walters, DT George Hypolite, DT Brandon Nicolas, C Daniel Sanders, OG Devin Head.
Newcomers Who Might See Time in 2009: DE Nick Kasa, DT Nate Bonsu, LB Forrest West, WR Jarrod Darden, WR Will Jefferson, WR Terdema Ussery, WR Andre Simmons, K Zach Grossnickle.

OFFENSE

2008 OFFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Offense: 86^th overall, 10^th in Big 12 / Passing Offense: 81^st overall, 11^th in Big 12 / Total Offense: 95^th overall, 12^th in Big 12 / Scoring Offense: 100^th overall, 12^th in Big 12.

The 2008 season was an offensive performance to forget. A rash of injuries, inexperienced players at important positions and a lack of a consistent identity spelt trouble for the Colorado Buffaloes. With the 2009 season just around the corner, a more experienced unit overall plus a healthy group of linemen up front has many hoping that the Buffs will reverse the lackluster offensive performance of the past few years. That being said, there are still plenty of question marks that still need to be answered.

the rest of the offensive, defensive, Q&A and win/loss predictions after the jump....

NEW FACES BRINGS NEW SCHEMES: One of the headlines coming into the 2009 season was the changes to the offensive staff. Joining the Colorado Buffaloes this offseason was offensive line coach Denver Johnson, who previously held the Illinois State head coaching job. Replacing Jeff Grimes, Johnson has seemed to endear himself to the fan base, preaching to bring back a more smash mouth style of football, playing on the opposition's side of the ball and putting the five linemen on the field. Such was displayed with Johnson's decision to move Ryan Miller to guard to make way for OT Blake Behrens. Johnson inherits a unit with no seniors but full of talent and a reason to be optimistic about the program's future. If Johnson can quickly& successfully implement his system with this young but relatively experienced offensive line, Buff fans should brace for a much improved offensive performance in 2009. The good news for the new coach is, unlike last year, his unit looks much healthier. Back from injury/off the field issues is Miller, OG Ethan Adkins, OG Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner (mid season return expected) and C Mike Iltis; all of whom will be battling for a starting spot.

Their was also a shake up at the top with former wide receivers and assistant head coach, Eric Kiesau, taking over as offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich. The season opener against Colorado State will mark the first game which Eric Kiesau has owned the game plan and called the plays on game day. Last season, the Buffs failed to establish any sort of identity, attempting to run the spread with a youthful, injured team that lacked game changing playmakers. Kiesau has said to want to bring back a more "pro-style" offense that allows for more power football, the use of tight ends and a progression based passing game, three traits that bode well for the strengths of CU's offense.

Head coach Dan Hawkins will take over the wide receiver coaching duties replacing Kiesau. Ashley Ambrose will assist Hawkins with the wide receivers and should take over in the near future.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: With WR Markques Simas suspended for the first two games of the season, junior college transfer WR Andre Simmons qualifying status up the air as of Thursday, August 18^th, the lone remaining experienced receiver on the Buffs' roster is Scotty McKnight. Not labeled as an explosive receiver, the Buffs need him to continue to be the steady force and over achieve on his prior two seasons considering the Buffs might not have a lot elsewhere to provide production. Colorado might get some production out of true freshman Will Jefferson, Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery but McKnight might be the best and only experienced option in 2009.

In an obvious choice, QB Cody Hawkins, who looks to have the edge in the quarterback race, needs to improve from 2008. The lack of playmakers currently at wide receiver does not bode well for increased production from Hawkins but tight end, running back and offensive line look to be improved from a year ago. If Hawkins can make better decisions and manage the offense through a strong running game, the passing game should open up. The key for Hawkins this year is to increase his completion percentage which was 57.2% in 2008, about 5% below the average junior quarterback % in 2008. Sustaining drives, keeping the defense off the field and converting on third downs will all improve with an increase in completions.

You could go running back here but with a stable of four in the backfield, the production looks to be there. Most Buff fans will look at the offensive line and hope that their health leads to more points. That being said, look to the tackle spots as players who need to play big in 2009. LT Nate Solder and RT Blake Behrens have the inside track at the two starting positions with the prospects of a bright future ahead of them. Solder, the athletically gifted converted tight end, has all the intangibles to be a dominant tackle while Behrens has similar intangibles and great footwork. Solder, due to his position change, and Behrens, due to being a redshirt freshman, will still have growing pains but if they are able to work through those early in the season, the offensive line has the makings to be special.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Hands down this was going to be WR Markques Simas or WR Andre Simmons before the former was suspended two games and the latter is still sitting on the sideline well into week two of fall ball due to admissions issues. The new impact newcomer may be WR Will Jefferson, who was an August 2009 signee. He has seen time with the first and second teams this fall and has impressed the coaches. The safe pick here, though, is Givens, who quickly inserted himself into the starting rotation this spring after gaining 20+ pounds to his true freshman frame. Givens has the ability to grow into a great one.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE OFFENSE: Running Back and Offensive Line. The Buffs boast one of the more loaded backfields in the Big 12 with sophomores Darrell Scott, Rodney Stewart and Brian Lockridge along with junior Demetrius Sumler. Stewart led the Buffs in rushing yards as a freshman and Sumler led the team in rushing touchdowns in 2008. Lockridge, a speedster, returns from injury after a serviceable 2007 freshman campaign and looks to be an added weapon that can be useful as a third down back and in the slot. But Darrell Scott still leads the ranks in the hype category. Supposedly in the best shape of his life at 220 pounds and fully recovered from his 2008 injury-plagued season, Scott looks to take a mulligan in 2009 and become an elite Big 12 back. Still, don't count out the other three, especially Rodney Stewart, who continues to impress. We do know one thing; running backs coach Darian Hagan will play the best man for the job regardless of preseason hype.

The offensive line has all the potential you could ask for to build a team around. They are big, fast, athletic, and will be around for a long time. Nate Solder is the veteran on the offensive line, sort of, checking in as a junior with all other players vying for starting spots coming in as either sophomores or redshirt freshmen. Solder and Ryan Miller lead the way in the size category coming at 6'9" 305 pounds and 6'8" 320 pounds respectively with Solder considered to be one of the most athletic players on the team, running a sub 5.0 second forty this offseason. C Mike Iltis looks to have the center spot locked down replacing Daniel Sanders from a year ago while Givens will man the right tackle spot. The only position that looks to be up for grabs at this point in time is the other guard spot. Ethan Adkins looks to have the upper hand but watch out for Blake Behrens and Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner, once he returns from his ACL injury, to push for time there. This unit is big, athletic, has depth and should be a bright spot in 2009 if they can protect the quarterback.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE OFFENSE: Wide Receiver and Quarterback. Wide receiver takes spots #1 and #2 in our weakness review. With Scotty McKnight the only player active who has caught a pass in a division one football game, the Buffs lack known quantities at the flanker spot. Markques Simas will hopefully return against Wyoming from suspension but with his academic ineligibility in 2008 coupled with the most current infraction, Buff fans should not count on anything. Andre Simmons, if admitted, should not be expected to be ready for the Colorado State game considering he has been sitting on the sideline for the last two weeks. Hopefully the Buffs can have both Simmons and Simas ready by the Wyoming game and can get production from one of the true freshman. Walk-on WR Jason Espinoza will also play a part in the offense. There are just not a lot of options at wide receiver this year.

Playmaking ability still remains a big concern on both sides of the ball. In 2008, the Buffs lacked explosiveness and with former WR Josh Smith transferring to UCLA, many players will be counted on to be a game changer that have not necessarily produced game changing results in the past. If the Buffs want to get to 7, 8 or 9 wins, Darrell Scott, Markques Simas, Rodney Stewart, Brian Lockridge, potentially Andre Simmons, one of the tight ends need to evolve into consistent threats on the offensive side of the ball.

DEFENSE

2008 DEFENSIVE STATISTICS - Rushing Defense: 86^th overall, 9^th in Big 12 / Passing Efficiency Defense: 73rd overall, 5^th in Big 12 / Total Defense: 78^th overall, 4^th in Big 12 / Scoring Defense: 86^th overall, 8^th in Big 12.

2008 provided some surprises on the defensive side of the ball. A senior-laden defensive line was supposed to be the strength of the team with the cornerbacks the weak spot. Roles reversed and relatively speaking, the cornerback play exceeded expectations while the defensive line failed to meet expectations. Often thought of as "solid but not spectacular" last season, the defense is considered to be strong to very strong in the back seven in 2009 but inexperienced up front. Colorado's defense has the opportunity to be a top tier Big 12 squad if they can get solid play from the front four.

ADJUSTING AND MULTIPLE: No one knows really what the Buffs are going to do on defense this year. Dan Hawkins has kept the defense on the far side of the practice field this offseason out of the public eye, shut down practices because of the leaking of defensive formations on the internet and has even brought in Bob Foster, his past mentor at Cal-Davis, to add his defensive knowledge. As noted above and from what observers have seen, the Buffs look like they won't be afraid to mix up the base sets. The lack of known commodities up front might force Colorado to become more multiple, switching between the 3 - 4, 4 - 3 and even 3 - 3 - 5 defensive schemes. Such defensive looks are possible due to some exceptional depth at the linebacker and cornerback spots.

Defensive coordinator Ron Collins has preached this offseason that his goal is to get the 11 best players on the field and that might mean three down linemen. If the Buffs lineup with three, Collins will have to be creative in his blitz packages and cover schemes. Establishing quarterback pressure is the name of the game this year as last year the Buffs ranked 7^th in the conference in sacks, averaging on 2.0 a game.

THREE PLAYERS WHO NEED TO PLAY BIG IN 2009: The Buffs need to replace 17 ½ sacks which is well over half of their total sack production from a year ago. Most are hoping that LB B.J. Beatty can replace last year's production of LB Brad Jones. Beatty showed, when healthy, that he has a nose for the football. If Colorado opts for a 3 - 4 defense, Beatty figures to play a prominent role as a rush end/stand-up outsider backer similar to what Brad Jones did for the '08 team. Again, with the major concern over who is going to get to the quarterback, players like B.J. Beatty are going to have to produce.

Marcus Burton is another player who is being counted on for a big year. An afterthought last year, Burton has rededicated himself to football and the 260 pound middle linebacker made his presence known this spring. Even though he was the biggest linebacker during offseason testing, Burton still produced the fastest forty time and showed great sideline to sideline range. Burton, considering with inexperience up front, will have a difficult job sifting through offensive linemen and being productive. Burton will have to be the anchor of the defense, especially in the early going of the season as the coaches try to figure out who will produce up front.

CB Jimmy Smith is the final player who needs to have a big year. With two inexperienced safeties in the Colorado secondary and a defensive line that is unproven, pass coverage will be at a premier this season. CB Cha'pelle Brown proved his worth last season. With CB Ben Burney returning from injury and CB Jalil Brown back from a successful 2008 campaign, the Buffs have plenty of depth at the position. But Jimmy Smith has the ability to change the game and shut down a side of the field on his own, making S Patrick Mahnke and S Anthony Perkin's life a lot easier. Smith, the 6'3" 200 pound NFL prototype cornerback, has the ability to be the best corner in the Big 12.

IMPACT NEWCOMER: Early money was on DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols due to the inexperience on the defensive line but with Kasa partially tearing his MCL and Nuckols failing to academically qualify, the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for immediate help. The most logical choice is now DT Nate Bonsu. The 6'1" 295 pound Allen, Texas product may just be forced into some early action.

THE STRENGTH(S) OF THE DEFENSE: Linebacker and Cornerback. Ask Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart about how strong the linebacker group is. Mohler and Smart were both starters a year ago and all conference awarded players. This year, they might be battling for one spot; and the Buffs may even add another linebacker position to run the 3 - 4. Marcus Burton impressed this offseason as did Michael Sipili, who will be competing for the middle linebacker job. Throw in the young but physically gifted Douglas Rippy and the potential of B.J. Beatty and this may be the deepest position on the Buffs team. And we didn't even mention Jon Major, a heavily recruited player from Colorado who tore his ACL last season as a true freshman.

A similar story at cornerback with 2007 starter Ben Burney returning to team up with Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith, all of whom started at least one game in 2008. Who starts against Colorado State will be fun to watch.

THE WEAKNESS(ES) OF THE DEFENSE: Defensive line, based purely on inexperience, not poor past performance. Gone are three seniors from a year ago and in are unproven players like DT Curtis Cunningham, DE Conrad Obi, DE Marquez Herrod, DT Eugene Goree, DT Tyler Sale, DT Will Pericak, DE Forrest West and DT Nate Bonsu. Nick Kasa may be in the mix after he recovers from the partial MCL tear.

Marquez Herrod will probably be a starter at defensive end but after that, it's anyone's guess. Curtis Cunningham played as a true freshman last season and made a few plays but he is still considered raw.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Last year's special team's performance was abysmal and should be a big point of emphasis this season if the Buffs' plan to be a player in the North. The departure of Josh Smith leaves a hole in the return game and 1,987 all purpose yards lost. The top candidates to fill the return role are Jason Espinoza, Rodney Stewart, Andre Simmons and Darrell Scott. K Aric Goodman returns, but he was just 5 for 14 on field goal attempts last season. The Buffs also return P Matt DiLallo who averaged 40.49 yards/punt last season while splitting time with Tom Suazo.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN AND QUICK HIT PREDICTIONS

Sept 5^th - Colorado St. Rams: The rivalry game is in Boulder, not in Denver, giving the Buffs a home field advantage. CSU will be breaking in a new quarterback and looks to have a weak front seven returning on defense. If CSU can get any quarterback play, it could be a dangerous game but expect the Buffs to load the box on defense. Prediction: W (1-0)
Sept 11^th - @ Toledo Rockets: the proverbial trap game with only five days rest. It is a Friday night game on the road against a team with a new coach; yes, a little scary. Like Colorado State, Toledo returns a lot of offensive line experience. Couple all of that with the dismal road record under Dan Hawkins (only 2 wins in three years) and the Buffs could be in more trouble than we would like to believe. That being said, Colorado has the more talented team and should win by double digits. Prediction: W (2-0)
Sept 19^th - Wyoming Cowboys: If the Buffs can start 2 - 0, they will have a nice eight day rest before hosting Wyoming at home who has little offensive identity even though former Missouri offensive coordinator Dave Christensen takes over the helm as new coach. Missouri has used Colorado as its punching bag the past two years but the Wyoming offense won't resemble Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Derrick Washington and Jeremy Maclin. Buffs need to win this one big. Prediction: W (3-0)
Oct 1^st - @West Virginia Mountaineers: This is a coin toss game. Both teams have 12 days to prepare with West Virginia coming off a tough game at Auburn the week before. West Virginia will be favored by 3 - 7 points so this is certainly a winnable game but on a Thursday night in Morgantown with the Buffs past lack of success on the road, I see a 3 - 1 start. Ask me again after week 2. Prediction: L (3-1)
Oct 10^th - @ Texas Longhorns: There are two "more than likely" road losses on the schedule which makes Dan Hawkins' "10 win expectation, not a guarantee" phrase possible. This is one of those games. Prediction: L (3-2)
Oct 17^th - Kansas Jayhawks: The Buffs should have three home games circled this year; Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. Three games that will dictate the degree of success in 2009. Win 2 or 3 of these games, expect Colorado football to be playing in strong bowl game. Lose all three, Colorado may once again be home for the holidays once again. Kansas QB Todd Reesing has been a Buff killer and the Jayhawks are expected to be a top 25 team when it is all said and done. Kansas has to replace some offensive linemen and linebackers so the Buffs should be in the game. Prediction: L (3-3)
Oct 24^th - @ Kansas St. Wildcats: Coming off three losses, this is a trap game that should be a Buff win. At 3 - 3, this game's outcome could determine if CU goes on to a winning record in the last half of the season or underachieves. If this is truly the year that we see changes in Boulder, Dan Hawkins' team should go into Manhattan and win. Since it is the offseason, let's be optimistic. Prediction: W (4-3)
Oct 31^st - Missouri Tigers: Halloween day in Boulder should be a wild scene. Mizzou could come into this game with a 3 - 4 record with both teams will have a lot riding on the game. The Buffs will have revenge on their mind after being utterly embarrassed the past two years losing by a combined score of 113 - 10. Many of the pieces from those two games are gone from Columbia and while Missouri fans are pushing the "Blaine Gabbert for Heisman" campaign already, this is the year for revenge. And one other thing, Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 along with Nebraska Prediction: W (5-3)
Nov 7^th - Texas A&M Aggies: I believe most Colorado fans would take 5 - 3 at this point in the year considering Texas A&M and Iowa State are still on the schedule with Nebraska being an important swing game. Most will admit Colorado should have beaten A&M a year ago in College Station outplaying them for all but 5 or so minutes of that game. At home in Folsom, the Buffs should be on a roll coming off two wins. Could be a let down candidate if they don't respond after a big Missouri victory but this team is more experienced than prior teams. Prediction: W (6-3)
Nov 14^th - @ Iowa St. Cyclones: Last time the Buffs went to Ames, they laid an egg which once again makes predicting any road games as a win a risky prospect. Trust me, Buff fans won't be laying a lot of action on the first road game to Toledo. Hawkins will remind his team of how poorly they played a year ago at Folsom and the bad loss two years ago. Colorado has a chance to win four in a row heading into the last two weeks of the season. Prediction: W (7-3)
Nov 19^th - @ Oklahoma St. Cowboys: Even if the Buffs did have a full week's rest, this would be a loss but on the road with a short week against a top 10 contender, the Buffs' win streak ends here. Prediction: L (7-4)
Nov 27^th - Nebraska Cornhuskers: Eight wins sounds like paradise with the potential for nine in a bowl game. The Buffs will get more rest than the Huskers due to playing on a Thursday night against Oklahoma State and the Huskers have to travel to Boulder. Right now, this game is a toss-up but it is hard for me to see this Buffs team finishing with eight wins and it is equally hard to see the Huskers as a top 25 team. That being said, seven wins was my number for the Buffs all along. Eight is do-able as you can tell, nine is a stretch. You can also make a case for five or six wins. Prediction: L (7-5)

SB NATION BIG 12 BLOGGER'S ROUNDTABLE Q&A

1) Predicted Finish

Big 12 North

Kansas

Nebraska

Colorado

Missouri

Kansas State

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

2) Who wins the Big 12 North?

~~Colorado Buffaloes Nebraska Cornhuskers~~ The Kansas Jayhawks...who knows, its wide open? Go get'em Buffs!

3) Who wins the Big 12 South?

The Oklahoma Sooners

4) How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligible?

7 - Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State

5) Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)?

Baylor

6) Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year?

DL Gerald McCoy

7) Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season?

The ones I could see happening are Coach Hawk or Mike Gundy (but only with 5 wins or less and that won't happen for either.

8) What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo Bowl?

Holiday - San Diego is better than San Antonio in every way imaginable

9) Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy?

Gerald McCoy

10) Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe?

Dez Bryant

11) Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer.

Have to say Nevada upsetting Mizzou.

12) Predict the MNC participants and champion.

Florida def. Penn State (an embarrassment of a schedule)

Poll

What is your regular season win prediction for the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009?

10 wins +: Gotta go with Coach Hawkins, he set the bar, anything less would be a disappointment

18 votes

8 - 9 wins: very solid year, outside chance at the Big 12 North, top tier bowl game

185 votes

7 wins: an improvement, still too many holes to challenge for a North title but still bowling

86 votes

6 wins: squeak into a bowl game but with an empty feeling, still have a ways to go to be competitive each week

18 votes

5 or less wins: not enough playmakers, too many holes, more of the same in Boulder. 2010 here we come

9 votes

316 votes | Poll has closed

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Colorado

Husker Mike — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:00:12 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

FILE - In this Sept. 14, 2007 file photo, Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins, front, is sacked by Florida State defensive end Everette Brown in the third quarter of an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

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Dan Hawkins raised eyebrows last winter by closing out last season's team banquet by proclaiming "Ten Wins, No Excuses." I believe him when he says it wasn't a prediction, it was an expectation. Aim high, I believe. I think any coach should have high expectations for their team.

But are the Buffaloes capable of winning ten games in 2009? That's another question entirely. Colorado fans point to last season's Nebraska game as proof that the Buffs aren't far off. If it wasn't for a school record 57 yard field goal by Alex Henery, the Buffs would have finished 6-6 and gone to a bowl game. One play away from a bowl game and a chance at a winning season. That's the story in Boulder, but is that reality? Another way to look at last season's NU/CU game is to look at the difference 4 other plays had on the outcome of the game. On Colorado's first two drives, the Buffs took advantage of blown coverages by the Blackshirts to take a 14-0 lead. Three plays did the damage: a 68 yard touchdown pass to Riar Greer, followed by a 44 yard pass to Josh Smith and then a 36 yard touchdown run by Demetrius Sumler. 3 plays, 148 yards. Quite a start.

The rest of the game? 45 plays, 153 yards of offense. Add in the fourth play, that fake field goal where Jimmy Smith intercepted the pitch to Henery and raced for a game tying touchdown, and suddenly a game that Nebraska dominated on both sides of the ball - except for those four plays - is a battle all the way. So while, yes, Nebraska was lucky that Henery was able to make a 57 yarder, Colorado was even more lucky to be in a position to steal a game in Lincoln.

Colorado's hopes for a winning season in 2009 are based on the ability of touted sophomore running back Darrell Scott. A former five-star recruit, he was slowed by injuries all season long and only accumulated 343 yards rushing, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Sophomore Rodney Stewart emerged as the Buffaloes top running back last season, rushing for 622 yards before breaking his leg against Texas A&M. Sumler, who will be a junior this season, finished last season with 251 yards.

Every Husker fan loves this image of Ndamukong Suh celebrating his game-clinching interception.
via huskersgameday.com

Junior quarterback Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, will compete with sophomore Tyler Hansen for the starting position. Hawkins is the better passer of the two, for what it's worth, completing 57% of his passes last season for 1892 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Hansen completed 52% of his passes, with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions, after pulling off his redshirt late in the season against Kansas State. Hansen did rush for 261 yards last season in limited play.

Josh Smith's departure from the Buffaloes leaves the CU with only junior Scotty McKnight as an experienced wide receiver going into this season. McKnight caught 46 passes for 519 yards and five touchdowns last season. Sophomore Markques Simas sat out last season due to academic problems, and will be suspended for the first two games of 2009 for violating team rules. Senior tight end Riar Greer returns as well, his 68 yard touchdown catch against the Huskers gave him a season total of 183 yards.

The offensive line is young and inexperienced, though many experts rave about the potential. Junior left tackle Nate Solder started all 12 games last season, as did sophomore left guard Blake Behrens. Sophomore Ryan Miller started the first four games at right tackle last season, then suffered a leg injury. He's expected to move to right guard. Two newcomers, center Mike Iltis and right tackle Bryce Givens are expected to jump straight into the starting lineup after sitting out last season.

Only four starters return from the #4 defense in the Big XII last season, none up front. Junior defensive end Marquez Herrod did have 14 tackles and 4 sacks last season. At linebacker, senior middle linebacker Jeff Smart earned second team all-Big XII honors as Colorado's leading tackler. Senior weakside linebacker Shawn Mohler was second on the team with 97 tackles, earning him honorable mention all-Big XII.

In the secondary, senior cornerback Cha'pelle Brown was a standout last season and was joined late in the season by junior cornerback Jimmy Smith, who interecepted the fake field goal pitch against the Huskers. Two part-time sophomore starters return at safety in Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins.

Turnover wasn't just limited to the players. Offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich left for Oregon after spring practice, and wide receivers coach Eric Kiesau was promoted to replace him. Helfrich's failed spread offense is out, and Kiesau's "pro style" offense is in. What does "pro style" mean? In May, Kiesau talked about emphasizing the running game, taking advantage of the running backs and the offensive line as relative strengths. But earlier this week, Kiesau added that not only will the Buffs feature "a downhill, blue-collar run game" but also "an extensive passing game."

Say what? With Cody Hawkins, Tyler Hansen, and only one returning receiver with any experience?

"We're going to get the ball downfield, let our playmakers get vertical. If you just run the ball along the box, they're going to stop you. We're going to play action and be able to throw it, we'll be extremely multiple.

"It could change from week to week - one week we could be in a lot of two-back, the next week be empty (no backs)."

No backs? Is this all a smokescreen to obscure his actual plans, or is he really thinking about asking Colorado's quarterbacks to put the ball up thirty to fourty times a game like a typical "pro-style, NFL offense?"

Here's my take: Colorado will likely try to establish a running game first, much like the New York Giants. They will need to be able to throw the ball effectively, for fear that opposing defenses will stack the box. Effectively doesn't mean frequently, but just enough to keep defenses honest. But that's easier said than done with the Buffs personnel.

So what does that mean for Colorado in 2009? Dan Hawkins told his team that he expects "10 wins". Rock M Nation ran the numbers, and also came up with 10. Ten losses, to be more precise. What's my prediction? Well, I think Rock M is closer than Coach Hawk. I don't think CU can win 10 games with this squad, though 7 or 8 might be possible if the incoming receivers can make an impact, the defensive line solidifies, everyone stays healthy, yadda yadda yadda. (Rock M came up with 10 "if onlys".)

Truth be told, while many experts talk up Colorado, they simply point out that their "breakthrough" would merely get the Buffs to bowl eligibility. And frankly, from my perspective, even that's a reach. If it wasn't for Colorado's budget issues, I'd suggest that Hawkins was on the hot seat this season. Remember that this CU squad nearly lost to Iowa State and Kansas State at home last season. That would have made the Buffs 3-9 last season, in which case would anybody be suggesting Colorado as a breakthrough team? Maybe not, unless they also remember Colorado went 3-8 in 2000.

Poll

What's your prediction for the Nebraska/Colorado game?

The Huskers score early and often, and waive goodbye to Dan Hawkins.

120 votes

It's another nip-and-tuck NU/CU game, with the Huskers pulling one out in Boulder.

106 votes

Colorado finds a way to beat the Huskers at home.

16 votes

Remember 2001? It's Deja Vu all over again.

11 votes

253 votes | Poll has closed

'Twas the Night Before Camp

irish1611 — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:13:09 -0000

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At last, let the journey begin. Finally, no more to talk about than "10 wins, no excuses," preseason rankings, and trying to rationalize the experience of your second team quarterback divided by the factor of 3 to figure out upcoming win potential. It's tough trying to get through the minutia, rehashing on subjects that never seem to go away. Last year it was the off-the-field issues, the year before was the "intramurals" comment and we all know what the offseason of 2009 will be famous for. Hopefully, 2010's offseason will be known for the talk about the resurrection of the Colorado Buffaloes football program.

Hopefully, the 2009 season is about quieting the snickering and the under-the-breath-laughing that most of the nation is displaying towards the "I didn't guarantee 10 wins" by coach Hawkins.

Boy is it good to have actual football back.

Everyone has things they hope to hear about coming out of camp that will make them feel better about the upcoming season, especially this year, as pivotal as it is surrounded by the perpetual statement : "if." The time to answer the "ifs" starts tomorrow!

There are many things to be excited about as camp kicks off but here are five that should get the juices flowing

-The Emergence of a new No. 1 - Yep, it looks like Andre Simmons might be wearing the number 1 this season based on the most recent release of the 2009 roster. Let's hope that it actually comes to fruition. In somewhat of a heroic effort to finish nine classes this spring and summer just to possibly qualify, Andre Simmons will try to pull off another amazing feat to get into "playing shape" and digest the playbook in one month to become a key playmaker. Talk about a whirlwind last few months for Simmons who probably had no idea what he was in for when he committed to the Buffs on February 4^th. I am excited to see the big #1 out there, standing 6'3" weighing in at 210 pounds, showing off his 4.46...something that trumps any Buffs' receiver by almost two tenths of a second. Whether he will be ready to make an immediate impact from week one or even week four against West Virginia remains to be seen but there is excitement around the prospects of such an impact. Still with all the hoopla about Simmons, the real key to gain offensive balance will be the growth of Markques Simas as a true number 1 receiver. Similar to Andre Simmons, Simas has never played in a division one game so the Buffs are counting on a lot of production from the unknown. That being said, the unknowns have talent and the potential to be the best duo at receiver the Buffs have had in a while.

-Eric Kiesau at the Helm - 95^th, 72^nd, 102^nd...that has been the Buffs' total offense ranking the last three years. With the departure of former offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to Oregon in the offseason and the promotion of the popular Eric Kiesau, Buff fans are hoping that the new man in charge can maximize the strengths of the offense. The good news is that the pieces seem to be in a better place than they ever were under Helfrich and let's face it, the numbers can't get much worse. I am excited to see if Kiesau can pump some life into the offense, something he has already done on the recruiting front. Dan Hawkins takes over Kiesau's wide receiver duties with Hawkins stating that Kiesau will be given total autonomy on the X's and O's. It will be fun to watch the impact Hawkins has on one of the biggest question mark positions and at the same time, the game plans Kiesau comes up with.

-One, Two, Three, Four... That's A Stable - the Buffs seem to have four running backs who are all capable of carrying the load. Of course the headliner is Darrell Scott who is still the player most fans will go and see this fall. #2 will be a different player than people will remember seeing last fall. Gone is the 230 pound back and supposedly in is the 210 pound speedster that still has the power that we saw last fall. The newest roster lists Scott at a surprising 225 pounds, though, which is a surprise if it is true due to the statements from many parties, including himself, saying Scott's best playing weight is in the 210 range. Don't forget about Rodney Stewart who is still playing the underdog role after outplaying Darrell Scott a year ago and leading the Buffs in rushing. Stewart and Scott should have a great battle all camp and I think running backs coach Darian Hagan loves pinning the players against each other to breed competition. Don't forget about Demetrius Sumler, who led the Buffs in rushing touchdowns last year, and Brian Lockridge, whose speed quickly catches the eye. Running back drills ought to be highly competitive this fall.

-The Newbies - One of the best things about the first few days of camp is getting a look at the newcomers. Most of us have had to rely on the scouting services' height and weight measurements, 3 minute YouTube highlights and MaxPreps statistics. Yeah, Edward Nuckols, the highly rated defensive tackle from California, didn't qualify but there are still plenty of other players that everyone should get a look at to see if they pass the eyeball test. Nick Kasa, the defensive end from Colorado, should bring in a crowd of onlookers as the Buffs badly need the 6'7" pass rusher to get to the quarterback, preferably in year one. All of the neophytes will be good to see out there but I am especially excited to see Kasa, Forrest West, Terdema Ussery, Nate Bonsu and Liloa Nobriga. Also, I have heard not many newcomers have impressed more this summer than CB Deji Olatoye, the lowest rated recruit in last year's class but possess great athleticism and measurables. Oh yeah, make sure you watch out for that 6'5" quarterback as well.

-Position Battles Galore - There are probably only a handful of players who have starting jobs locked up: OG Ryan Miller, OT Nate Solder, C Mike Iltis, OT Bryce Givens, S Anthony Perkins, P Matt DiLallo, S Patrick Mahnke, FB Jake Behrens and possibly CB Jimmy Smith. Other than that, let the battles begin. Running backs & the quarterback spot will get the most attention this fall but to me, the most exciting is at linebacker. Throw in a bunch of talented players, the possible need for a 3 - 4 defense and coach Brian Cabral's history of producing great units and you have, to me, one of the more intriguing battles. Returning starters Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart were thought to be shoe-ins for a repeat on top of the depth chart but in spring ball, both were in deep competition with Douglas Rippy, B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili. Throw in a healthy Jon Major from the 2008 recruiting class and the Buffs look to have seven players who will be fighting for the three to four spots. Plus, who knows what Forrest West (3 - 4 purposes), Derrick Webb and Liloa Nobriga have to offer. Marcus Burton was lights out in spring ball, showing great range and putting up impressive workout numbers. Who would have thought the 260 pounder would be the fastest backer?

Poll

What position battle are you most excited to see play out this fall?

Quarterback

38 votes

Wide Receiver

59 votes

Linebacker

18 votes

Running Back

77 votes

Defensive Line

25 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took at look at what really was an impressively bad offense that Colorado put on the field in 2008. That the Buffs came within a game of bowl eligibility must speak volumes of their defense, right?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.1 (#33)
Success Rate+: 105.3 (#45)
PPP+: 116.1 (#34)

Standard Downs S&P+: 108.6 (#36)
Passing Downs S&P+: 124.0 (#15)

Redzone S&P+: 109.5 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 107.0 (#43)
Q2 S&P+: 122.7 (#20)
Q3 S&P+: 98.4 (#62)
Q4 S&P+: 123.1 (#15)

1st Down S&P+: 108.7 (#37)
2nd Down S&P+: 102.3 (#52)
3rd Down S&P+: 135.5 (#8)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 103.1 (#56)
Rushing SR+: 102.6 (#53)
Rushing PPP+: 103.8 (#55)

Standard Downs: 101.7 (#58)
Passing Downs: 104.4 (#57)

Redzone: 96.2 (#76)

Line Yards+: 98.3 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.3 (#18)
Passing SR+: 107.1 (#34)
Passing PPP+: 125.0 (#18)

Standard Downs: 116.0 (#14)
Passing Downs: 129.9 (#15)

Redzone: 129.8 (#13)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.9% (#61)

While the offense was almost universally bad in every category, the defense was a lot more interesting to analyze--quite a few ups and downs.

They were decent on Standard Downs and excellent on Passing Downs. When I see a team better on Passing Downs, I assume that their LB corps must be pretty good at blitzing, but that's a bit of a generalization.
This is reflected in the per-down numbers as well--they were mediocre on 2nd downs and great on 3rd downs.
Their best quarter: Q4. Makes sense if you think about it. A) They lost four games by 16 points or more, and in "non-close" situations, the trailing team usually has the advantage while the leading team is running the ball and killing the clock. B) When they were in close games down the stretch, they usually thrived. As mentioned yesterday, they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and while that ignores the Nebraska game--they were leading by one with two minutes left before Nebraska scored a quick 10 points that deceptively boosted the scoring margin--clearly they were still pretty good when the game was close.
While their success rates (efficiency) and PPP (explosiveness) were roughly the same in rushing defense, Colorado did see a decent split between their passing defense success rates (34th) and PPP (18th). That usually suggests relatively loose coverage and good tackling--you can get efficient, short gains against them, but you're not necessarily going to burn them deep a lot.
Neither line play measure was particularly impressive.

Defensive Line

Herrod (#90) is about the only returner who has made any plays whatsoever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #58 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Marquez Herrod (6'2, 265, Jr.)
DT Eugene Goree (6'1, 295, So.)
DT Taj Kaynor (6'5, 265, Sr.)
DE Conrad Obi (6'3, 265, So.)
DT Curtis Cunningham (6'1, 275, So.)
DE Lagrone Shields (6'3, 270, So.)
DT Will Pericak (6'4, 265, RSFr.)
DE Tony Poremba (6'1, 230, So.)

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the list above combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

Linebackers

Smart (#45)

2008 Unit Ranking: #36 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jeff Smart (6'0, 220, Sr.)
Shaun Mohler (6'3, 220, Sr.)
BJ Beatty (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Doug Rippy (6'1, 230, RSFr.)
Michael Sipili (6'1, 240, Jr.)
Jon Major (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Marcus Burton (6'0, 260, Sr.)

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Secondary

Mighty mite Cha'pelle Brown is a rock-solid corner.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Cha'pelle Brown (5'7, 170, Sr.)
CB Jimmy Smith (6'2, 200, Jr.)
S Anthony Perkins (5'10, 200, So.)
S Patrick Mahnke (6'1, 205, So.)
CB Benjamin Burney (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Jalil Brown (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Travis Sandersfeld (6'0, 205, So.)
S Ray Polk (6'1, 190, RSFr.)

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

Special Teams

Aric Goodman MUST improve in 2009.

2008 Unit Rankings: #80 Net Punting, #56 Punt Returns, #38 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Aric Goodman (5'10, 185, Jr.) - 30-for-31 PAT, 5-for-14 FG
P Matt DiLallo (6'1, 200, Sr.) - 34.0 Net Avg
KR - Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
PR - Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? I could probably manage to go about 2- or 3-for-14*, so he was only about six points better than me as a kicker. He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

* Okay, maybe 1-for-14. Fine, 0-for-14. I'd have kicked every ball directly into the ass of a lineman seven yards ahead of me.

Meanwhile, here's where Josh Smith's loss could possibly hit the hardest. Again, Smith wasn't all-conference material or anything, but while he averaged a decent 13.3 yards per catch (best among CU receivers), he was quite good in the return game, averaging 10.4 yards per punt return (point of reference: Jeremy Maclin averaged 11.0) and 25.5 per kick return (Maclin: 24.0) with 1 TD. Assuming he doesn't get coerced into staying in Boulder, then it looks like the early leaders to replace him are Rodney Stewart at KR and Jason Espinoza at PR. I have nothing valuable about whether they're any good at returning kicks, so instead I'll just point out that they're very little. So there you go.

Summary

As I mentioned in yesterday's intro, I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased about Colorado. I think they're young enough that they really could be solid in 2010 and maybe 2011, but it's really annoying me that it appears writers are once again jumping the gun too early on them, picking them as a North sleeper for what I think is the fourth straight year. They've got a solid-not-flashy LB corps and potentially very good secondary. They've also got a lot of unproven potential at RB and on the O-line. But that's about it. They have nothing proven at WR or on the D-line, and unfortunately I think Cody Hawkins has proven a bit too much at QB. They would be better served floating under the radar for another year and figuring out what they have, particularly at WR. But instead, people are once again ranking them in the Top 40 and calling them a sleeper, meaning they'll be expected to produce a little earlier than I think they're capable of producing. Not that I'm losing sleep over these preseason picks or anything, but it's not fair to Colorado to expect anything major from them just yet--I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think they're still a year away.

---

Projections on Friday. And I'm warning you now--as down as I appear to be on CU, the BTBS projections are infinitely more down on them. Shockingly down on them...to the point where I almost want to stick up for them a bit.

2009 Big 12 Football Previews: Colorado Buffaloes

ccmachine — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:21:38 -0000

*2008 High*	*2008 Low*
17-14 OT Win Over West Virginia	58-0 Loss At Missouri

We’re going to start our conference previews by looking at the teams that are not on Oklahoma’s 2009 football schedule. These teams include Colorado, Iowa State and Missouri – all three of which I’d rather see on the schedule than Kansas, Kansas State and Nebraska.

Offense

Dreadful doesn’t quite describe Colorado’s attempt to run the no huddle offense last season. The Buffs were last in the in points scored (20.2) and yards (318.5) per game. Part of the problem for Colorado’s offensive woes could have been instability at both the quarterback and running back positions. Cody Hawkins eventually gave way to Tyler Hansen and highly touted running back Darrell Scott didn’t live up to the hype.

*Offense*	*Per Game*	Rank
Scoring	20.2	100
Rushing	124.5 ypg	86
Passing	194 ypg	81
Total	318.5ypg	95

In `09 the Buffaloes are going to rely heavily on their stable of running backs and hope that opens up the passing game. A pleasant surprise last season was the emergence of running back Rodney Stewart who led the team in rushing. The duo of Stewart/Scott could turnout to be on of the better running back duos in the North. Markques Simas in now eligible to play and will be relied upon to take some attention away from Scotty McKnight. However, depth behind those guys is questionable at best.

The key to Colorado’s offense is going to be the same as just about every other offense in the country, offensive line play and the triggerman. The Buffaloes offensive line is very young. Junior left tackle Nate Solder is the oldest starter penciled in on the line and because sophomore guard Ethan Adkins is edging out senior Devin Head it looks like Solder could be joined by three sophomores and a freshman on the line. Cody Hawkins threw 17 touchdowns to 10 interceptions last season and will need to step up a notch in `09 as a junior. He’s not real fleet of foot which is a big problem when there are leaks in the offensive line. More than anything else his decision making abilities will need to improve in order to lead the Buffs to success.

Defense

*Defense*	*Per Game*	*Rank*
Scoring	29.3	86
Rushing	166.3	86
Passing	215.3	72
Total	381.6	78

The strength of Colorado’s defense last season was the line but with three starters gone due to graduation they are now turning to their linebackers. Switching to a 3-4 scheme the Buffaloes are going to depend on a fast and rugged group of linebackers to anchor the defense. Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler led the team in tackles last season and will provide senior leadership along with Marcus Burton. B.J. Beatty may be one of the best pass rushing linebackers in the conference.

On the corners the Buffaloes are strong. Jimmy Smith is their best corner and is a legitimate shutdown guy. Opposite of him Ben Burney is pushing his way back into a starting spot after missing last season due to injury. Strong safety Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins were thrust into starting positions last season due to injuries and more than held their own. As sophomores they’ll be seasoned starters in 2009 rounding out a solid defensive secondary.

*RETURNING*	LEADERS
Passing	Cody Hawkins, 183/320-1,892-10, 17 TDs
Rushing	Rodney Stewart, 132/622, 2 TDs
Receiving	Scotty McKnight 46/519, 5 TDs
Tackles	Jeff Smart, 118
Sacks	Marquez Herrod, 4

Current Colorado Buffaloes' Defensive and Special Teams Roster

irish1611 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 19:38:30 -0000

Following our offensive roster chart, below is the 2009 Colorado Buffaloes' defensive and special team players. Compared to the offensive piece, this chart has a little more distribution between years of each position as well as depth oming down the 2010 pipeline unlike tight end and fullback on the offensive side of the ball.

Position		SENIORS	JUNIORS	SOPHOMORES	FRESHMEN	INCOMING Fr
DT		Taj Kaynor	Eric Lawson	C Cunningham	Will Pericak	Nate Bonsu
DT		Tyler Sale*	Eric Lawson	Eugene Goree	Will Pericak	Edward Nuckols
Sch	7	1	1	2	1	2
NSch	1	1
DE			M Herrod	Kevin Cooney*	Nick O'Neill*	Nick Kasa
			Joe Silipo*	David Goldberg*		J. Forrest West
				Conrad Obi		Sc Fernandez*
				Tony Poremba*
				Lagrone Shields
Sch	5		1	2		2
NSch	6		1	3	1	1
LB		Marcus Burton	Michael Sipili	Tyler Ahles	Jon Major	Liloa Nobriga
		Shaun Mohler	B.J. Beatty	*Brandon Gouin	Doug Rippy	Derrick Webb
		Jeff Smart		*Zackary Farley	*Guy Sergent	Geoff Sissom*
		*Bryan Stengel		Josh Hartigan
Sch	11	3	2	2	2	2
NSch	5	1		2	1	1
CB		Cha Brown	Jalil Brown	Jon Hawkins	Stephen Hicks	Deji Olatoye
		Ben Burney	Jimmy Smith	*Arthur Jaffee	Paul Vigo	Cody McAninch*
				Anthony Wright
Sch	9	2	2	2	2	1
NSch	2			1		1
S			*Bret Smith	Patrick Mahnke	Vince Ewing	Parker Orms
				*Erik Manarino	Ray Polk
				*Matt Meyer
				Anthony Perkins
				*T Sandersfeld
Sch	5			2	2	1
NSch	4		1	3		0
K			Aric Goodman	Jameson Davis		Z Grossnickle
P		Matt DiLallo
SN		J Drescher	Austin Bisnow
Sch	5	2	1	1		1
NSch	1	0	1
DEFENSIVE AND SPECIAL TEAMS TOTAL
Sch	42	8	7	11	7	9
NSch	19	2	3	9	2	3
Total	61	10	10	20	9	12
TEAM TOTAL
Sch	78	12	14	24	10	18
NSch	37	5	5	13	5	9
Total	115	17	19	37	15	27
*italics - transfer / - non-scholarship player**

The linebacking and cornerback spots are the class of the defense. The Buffs will have solid depth for many years at linebacker, assuming Jon Major recovers from his ACL injury and Doug Rippy continues to develop. I would expect the Buffs to take a couple more 'backers in the 2010 class to keep the continuity going. The linebacking depth is exactly what you want as a coach when you look at your group of players; a great mix of experience as well as young talent who are pushing the veterans. As for cornerback, the next two years look very solid as long as Jimmy Smith doesn't jump for the NFL early. I think he is still in need of all four years of college but if he has the year that I expect him to have, he may be tempted by the NFL scouts who would be drooling over a sub 4.5, 6'3" physical cornerback. After the next two years, the Buffs will need to get help at corner as you will be looking at all new starters after 2010 with not much known about the players behind the juniors and seniors.

The rest of the defensive positions, youth prevails. There are only three scholarship upperclassmen at defensive line and safety. The Buffs are young at safety with potential starters Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins both sophomores but they gained valuable experience as freshmen. Defensive line continues to be the main question mark on the defense mostly because we don't know what we are going to get from the underclassmen, who will be forced to play this year. Guys like Eugene Goree, Conrad Obi, Lagrone Shields, Curtis Cunningham, Nick Kasa, Edward Nuckols, Nate Bonsu, Will Pericak, Lagrone Sheilds, etc. haven't showed us a lot because they are all first or second year players. They might be great but the doubt surrouding them is one reasons many Buff fans wonder if the team will turn the corner and get to that 8+ win mark.

On special teams, the Buffs had to take a kicker in the 2009 class in Zach Grossnickle after the dismal performance last year. Grossnickle (both a placekicker and punter) may technically be the only punter on the team after this season with starter Matt DiLallo graduating. Special teams is another part of the equation that most Buff fans forget about but shouldn't in evaluating the possible success next year. You name it, it went wrong in 2008 so improved play is a must.