SB Nation - Shaun Mohler

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

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Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Thursday Buff Bites: I Might Be Drunk But You're Still Ugly

irish1611 — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:00:24 -0000

Mailbag: The state of CU football And Mike Shannahan - The Denver Post - Woody Paige
Woody Paige of the Denver Post brings up Mike Shannahan for the next coach of the Buffs and also has a nice realistic response to a fan saying he still believes in Dan Hawkins because he has a "clean" program which is a big false PR ploy that Bohn and Co. have put out when a) it has been four years since Barnett and b) the program's cleanliness is better but let's not act like the Buffs are angels.

After watching the Toledo game, I am a bigger fan of Dan and Cody Hawkins than ever. That is as good as CU can be right now. Class and courage at its best!! Yes, I wanted both of them gone after CSU and in the first half of the Toledo game. The reality is this team is not good, but Coach Hawkins is the right guy. When you have the cleanest team in America, it will take a long time to turn around from ashes. I am extremely impressed how both Hawkins have handled first two games. ("Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" - Winston Churchill) -- Duke, Tampa, Fla.

Duke: Winston Churchill was drinking one night (which wasn't that unusual), and a woman said: "Sir, you are drunk." He replied: "Yes, I am, madam, but tomorrow morning I will be sober, and you still will be ugly." Colorado is a clean, swell, courageous program, but it's still ugly. I love Cody Hawkins as a player, and I like Dan Hawkins, even though he had become snippy this year even before the first game. But both might just be out of their realm. Cody, honestly, should have been a Division 1-A (or whatever that group is now called) player, and he will be a great coach pretty soon, but he's not a Big 12 Conference quarterback. Despite his desire, his knowledge of the game, his effort, he was at the bottom of the league statistically last year and again this year. If you're Dan Hawkins, don't tell your team it's going to win 10 games and then have to eat that statement. If you're Dan Hawkins, and you were the coach at Boise State, and your team, under your assistants, utilized some great trick gimmick unique plays, why not try some of them at CU? They seem to work at Boise State. Why recruit the best running back in the country, supposedly, and then not play him? Why allow your only great receiver leave? At least, try everything (legal) to keep him. Why can't you beat Toledo? Where are the skilled players at wide receiver? The idea this year was to run. The secondary was touted as being good. Dan Hawkins says he doesn't make the decision about the starting quarterback. If you're the offensive coordinator, who are you going to choose? I don't think special quarterbacks were going to come here if they knew Cody was going to be the quarterback for four years. It was suggested when Gary Barnett was gone that Dave Logan should have been hired. That was the right idea then, and it's probably the right idea now (if Shanahan wouldn't take the job).

Scout.com: 2009 CFN Big 12 Week 3 Expert Picks & Roundup
Once again, the editors at College Football News are picking the Buffs to win this week, except for this one game named Matt who picked Toledo last week as well. He has also gone an impressive 18 - 4 straight up and 12 - 4 against the spread, leading the group of six editors.

More links after the jump...

Colorado Buffaloes stampede into the Bottom 10 - ESPN
I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the Buffs have entered ESPN's "Bottom 10". At least we aren't first...but they also turned the Buffalo upside down which is not a good look for Ralphie.

Big 12 predictions, Week 3 - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin is on board...again. He picks the Buffs to win in an "ugly game" this weekend against the Wyoming Cowboys. I would take the ugliest win in history just to take a week off from all the crap.

Colorado 24, Wyoming 21: It can’t get any worse for Dan Hawkins and the Buffaloes, can it? If they lose this one, it will. Despite the struggles stopping big plays and operating the offense in losses against Colorado State and Toledo, the Buffaloes will rebound. Even though the Cowboys turned the heat up on Texas last week and Dave Christensen had his way against the Buffaloes when he was offensive coordinator at Missouri -- he outscored Colorado by a combined 113-10 margin last season -- it won’t be that easy this time. The Buffaloes will rebound and win a gritty game that won’t be very spectator friendly.

Miller tackles new, yet former, position - The Denver Post
I looks like Buffs LB Shaun Mohler will be back for the game this weekend after sitting out the Toledo game with a concussion:

Mohler ready. Suffering last week from effects of a concussion, senior linebacker Shaun Mohler did not play against Toledo but has been cleared for action against Wyoming. Mohler did not make the trip to Ohio and had to watch the Friday night horror show on TV. "It was pretty frustrating," Mohler said. "I wanted to be out there with the guys. We struggled, but I think we'll be a lot better this week."

Geology head: Apology will be required - The Denver Post
You have heard about the encounter between Marcus Burton and his Geology teacher. The department head found out and is now making the professor apologize for the comment about the Buffs football team this season:

Just like numerous Colorado football fans, Lang Farmer was taken aback when he read in Wednesday's Denver Post that Buffs football player Marcus Burton had been called out in class by his professor for the team's poor play. "My reaction upon reading the article this morning is just as negative as everyone else's, more so probably since it was my department," wrote Farmer, the chairman of the geology department at CU, via e-mail Wednesday.

Barking Carnival — Blog — Dan Hawkins Seeks The Wisdom of Busey
Barking Carnival has an "interesting" interview with Coach Hawk....

The Longmont Times-Call - Former Buff WR Kendrick Celestine Eyes Return

10 things to watch in the Big 12, Week 3 - Big 12 - ESPN

4. Can it get any worse for Colorado? Coach Dan Hawkins’ team has been one of the nation’s biggest early disappointments. Hawkins brashly predicted "10 wins and no excuses" before the season. They might not make that prediction at this point if they played 50 games. Expect some fans at Folsom Field to be wearing paper bags over their head in shame after the Buffaloes’ disappointing 0-2 start that included losses five days apart to Colorado State and Toledo. Hawkins’ seat already is blistering and he’ll be facing a Wyoming team directed by Dave Christensen, a former Missouri offensive coordinator who helped outscore the Buffaloes by a combined margin of 113-10 in the last two seasons he was there. Christenson’s offenses have a current run of 106 straight points against the Buffaloes after those two games. If that streak continues, Hawkins’ tenuous job status may bubble over.

Wednesday Buff Bites - Experts Pick Buffs, Toledo's Top RB Suspended

irish1611 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 02:40:46 -0000

Scout.com: 2009 CFN Big 12 Expert Picks, Schedules, More
College Football News' "experts" pick the Big 12 games for week one and all but one believe the Buffs will cover 11 points.

Rockets' Williams suspended - Top rusher out 2 games; 2 others also punished
Sophomore running back Morgan Williams, the Rockets' leading rusher last season, will sit out the first two games of the season, while senior linebacker Daris Quinn and senior safety Chris Faison will miss the season opener at Purdue on Saturday. Hat tip to CleBuffs for finding this.

The View From Dan Hawkins Office - Endzone's Painted...Anyone Else Ready???

Woelk: Financial sense trumps tradition for Buffs, Rams - Boulder Daily Camera
Neill Woelk of the BDC wishes college games were always played on campus but he also realizes that playing in Denver "could mean as much as an extra $10 million for CU over the lifetime of the deal."

Ranking the Big 12's defenses - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin of ESPN ranked the Buffs' offense 8th yesterday and he has a better feeling about the defense: 6. Colorado:

The Buffaloes are faster this season and that should help them cope with the high-powered offenses in the Big 12. The linebackers are deep with Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart as the prime producers. And I really like the secondary, with Jimmy Smith and Cha’pelle Brown among the best pair of cornerbacks in the conference. The biggest concern is along the defensive line, particularly after the injury of heralded freshman Nick Kasa that may idle him for the season. One area to note will be at right defensive end, where sophomore Lagrone Shields and freshman Forrest West are in the two-deep. Shields has played four snaps in his career.

Oregon-Boise State: Travel squad - no Jackson - Behind The Ducks Beat
Former Buff commit, current Oregon wide receiver Diante Jackson is not on the travel list for the Oregon's first game against Boise State. The Ducks are bringing nine wide receivers excluding Diante. Boy, anyone have any doubt that Diante wouldn't be playing this week for the Buffs? In fairness to Jackson, he has been injured most of fall camp.

2009 Commit QB/Ath Josh Moten Officially Listed as a Non Qualifier in the CU Notes

The Longmont Times-Call - Effort, smarts earn CU’s Cunningham spot as top tackle

Starting Guard for the Rams "Day to Day"- The Denver Post
The Rams starting offensive guard Shelley Smith was held out of practice Tuesday due to a sprained ankle and his status is unknown for the game. Shelley is a fifth-year senior post- season honors candidate.

CU Stewart turns corner, gets back up to speed - The Denver Post

It's been nearly three weeks since Colorado running back Rodney "Speedy" Stewart has felt like himself on the field. But Tuesday, the CU sophomore said he's turned the corner. Stewart participated in his most extensive practice since injuring his left hamstring Aug. 13 and came out of it all smiles. "It's getting better, it's definitely getting stronger," Stewart said. "The issue with it last week was it's kind of weak, so they didn't want me practicing. But now I can make my cuts. It might hurt a little bit, but I can finish strong." At this point, Stewart says he's about 80 percent healthy. By the time Sunday's game against Colorado State rolls around, Stewart says he expects to be about 90 percent.

CU Buffs' Darrell Scott seeks redemption - Colorado Daily

Recruiting and Eligibility: Does a Line Exist?

irish1611 — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 17:55:53 -0000

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Yesterday, after having a discussion with a family member about former 2009 commit Edward Nuckols and his decision to attend Seton Hill University (not Seton Hall University) after being deemed ineligible by Colorado, he brought up a good point about who is at fault for kids not qualifying and where is the mis-communication during the recruiting process...or is their any communication at all?

Of course, most of us will never know what transpires behind the closed doors of admissions offices, football meeting rooms and recruiting telephone calls but is it really this hard to know if a kid is going to academically qualify? Do we always need to play this game? What game is that you ask? It is the game of flying these kids out to Boulder as if they are going to qualify and then we wait, and wait and then somehow they are told they don't qualify for the University of Colorado and are sent home. It's an awkward situation where the student-athletes are in Boulder ready to practice, ready to go to classes and then are just sent home. "Sorry, hopefully we see you next year?"

Dan Hawkins and Co. sold them on the program, the location, the academics, the family atmosphere, etc. Players sign to the program visualizing 50,000+ fans at Folsom Field cheering when they come out of Dal Ward. Yes, kids like Josh Moten, Edward Nuckols and Shaun Simon; all members of the 2009 class who won't be in Boulder this year probably had "work to do" to qualify for the University of Colorado. That "work to do", especially for California kids, ends well into June making it hard for the admissions teams and the NCAA to process results and clear players.

Still, their has to be a better way than sending three kids home from Boulder in the fall or from any school. Right?

It is hard to pin this on the coaches or recruiters. They sell a kid on the endless possibilities at Colorado and motivate them to get into the classroom to achieve that goal, just like the goal of playing division one Big 12 football. The coaches see a talented athlete who will help their team win and with some luck and motivation, that kid will qualify. Their is absolutely no fault in that logic, good things happen to people who overcome adversity everyday and go on to become wildly successful. The kids hear that and they believe they can do it. Who wouldn't, good coaches motivate, that is how they win football games. The coaches tell them the "Shaun Mohler story" from a year ago, now it will be the "Andre Simmons story" of taking nine classes in the spring and summer sessions to qualify because he wanted to wear the "Black and Gold" on Saturdays.

It is hard to blame the teenager because, well, if someone told me how great I was and that I could academically qualify with a little hard work, I would believe it to.

I definitely don't know the answer and the reality is many of these guys probably would have made it into only a handful of schools with their academic standings like they were. OL Shaun Simon was not heavily recruited because many thought he wouldn't qualify, similar to DT Edward Nuckols. Their is a reason most of the PAC-10 schools did not jump all over Nuckols, who is a load in the middle, or the Mid-West schools all over Shaun Simon who played for one of the strongest high school programs in Oklahoma. When it comes down to it, at the root, you can always look back to a kid's early academic years of high school and say "that is what is at fault, do your work and you qualify."

That being said, I still feel for the kid in the situation. The program loses out as well but these young guys are sold on that visual of Folsom Field, Ralphie, the teammates in Boulder, the "Hawk Love", the Band, the pregame walk down Pearl, all the things the program has to offer. It's not like they were denied back in February but instead, they make it all the way out to Boulder and now are left searching for plan B in the same month before school starts. Talk about a scary moment for a teenager.

How to solve this problem? It will never be solved completely, its the nature of the beast and every program deals with it, some more than others based on the academic standing of a University. But the best way for Colorado to minimize the problem is win and continue to win. One thing I notice is early enrollment is a wonderful thing. As Buff fans, due to the past three year's win-loss record, most of our commitments come later in the process. Not a shot at the program, just a fact. Winning 8, 9, 10 games will get recruiting jump started and provide the Buffs the ability to sign early and January enroll players (battling the University Admissions Office on early enrollment might be a concern as well but let's have that discussion when we starting trying to early enroll a lot of players). Not only will that help with the headache of admitting players at the last minute (especially California players) but, obviously, get freshmen on the field quicker and ready to go. Still, early enrollment doesn't apply to all and those who probably need it the most wouldn't qualify at that time anyway.

Winning, for obvious reasons, also allows the Buffs to be more selective. Win like the big boys, fliers don't need to be taken on players. It will allow Hawkins and Co. to choose from ten players at a position, not settle for one and pray like hell he gets in. It will allow those early commits to be in decent academic standing to enroll early and get a handle on his academics before the fall term. Winning gets that player five more months experience compared to past freshmen in the program.

I guess you can chalk this up to one of the difficulties of academic standards and collegiate sports, something you have to deal with, but is certainly hard to swallow from the kid's perspective, even if the root of the problem was his academic standing. I don't have the answer but this is good food for thought.

Like many solutions to our problems, winning will help cure most of the qualifying difficulty.

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Colorado Buffalo

Jeremy Mauss — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 22:00:11 -0000

This rival game has been played in Denver since 1998 with the exception of 2004 and 2005. This year Colorado played a card from the contract that allows the game to be moved to their home stadium, so the Buffs did that for this year game; soon after Colorado State did the same.

Even though both schools make more money in Denver the Buffs want six home games each year and keeping the game in Denver would not allow that.

This team should be good enough to rebound to a bowl game, but brutha’ Coach Hawkins has some holes to fill to make that a reality.

The biggest news this offseason for Colorado is the transfer of playmakin’ wide receiver Josh Smith who is transferring to either USC or UCLA.

The only experienced receiver back is Scotty Mcknight, while the rest are either redshirt freshman, Markques Simas, or JUCO transfers, Andre Simmons. These players are all considered good talent, but experience and playing in the Big XII will hurt them at some point on the year.

Passing	Com%	Yards	TD	INT
Cody Hawkins	57.2	1,892	17	10
Rushing	Carries	Yards	Yards Per Carry	TD
Rodney Stewart	132	622	4.7	2
Darrell Scott	87	343	3.9	1
Receiving	Catches	Yards	Yards Per Catch	TD
Scotty McKnight	46	519	11.3	5
Riar Geer	13	183	8.7	2
Ryan Deehan	4	61	12.2	1

There is still some questions if Andre Simmons will be eligible to suit up in the fall, if he is able to play Simmons should be in the starting lineup very soon, if not the first weekend.

The tight end position is interesting because Riar Greer who started at wide receiver is moving to tight end this year he does have the size at 6-4 and 250 pounds. Greer will do minimal blocking, but instead will use his pass catching ability at tight end. Greer will be more similar to the rest of the Big XII tight ends that are receivers first and blocker second.

Where the wide receiver position is iffy the running back position is the strength of the Colorado offense. It will be a strength if the Buffs are able to stay competitive in games, especially in the big games like Nebraska, Kansas, @ Texas, and @ Oklahoma State.

There are three backs in consideration for Colorado and they are Darrell Scott — five star recruit, – Rodney Stewart was only a two star high schooler, and then the third is Brian Lockridge who could be used to catch the ball.

The talent at tailback is huge with former high school stars, but experience is in question. Even though Stewart is the returning rusher he is still being challenged by players with very little playing time, or backs who have not seen the field at the division one level.

The running game will most likely come down to putting players in the game where they specialize; whether it be short yardage, catching ability, or the speed back.

Quarterback play returns their two year starter, and coaches son, Cody Hawkins who was terrible when comparing his Sophomore campaign.

His first year as a starter was much better with over 3,000 yards, but last year Hawkins was ineffective at times and was benched for a few games.

The offense overall has the chance to be pretty good with all the talent on the offensive line, and the potential at the running back position. Odds are it will be an average offense.

Defensively the linebackers are the strength of what is a below average defense in the Big XII, but they are the key to help the Buffs try to slow down the scoring machines that are the Big XII offenses. With the strength at linebackers Colorado is moving form a 4-3 to a 3-4 which will help improve their lackluster defense.

The Buffs were eigth in the Big XII in defensive scoring, but somehow were fourth in total defense. That is not really hard too hard to explain, because the Buffs had a minus seven in the turnover margin and gave teams too many chances with a short field.

Even though the defense only returns three starters, they look to be improved. Shaun Mohler who started at linebacker last year might possibly be regulated to backup duty, which is not all that bad for this team.

The only problem with linebackers are that none can do it all, but they have enough individual skill sets within the depth chart to be good.

The front line is in the worst shape with all three starters from last year gone; that is a reason why the depth of linebacker is a good thing, because they will be called upon in slowing down the running attack.

Secondary is also a concern — specifically in the Big XII– with Cha’pelle Brown coming back from an injury and Jimmy Smith who is fast (4.5) and big (6′2″), but he has had problems listening to the staff; tha tis until this spring where something clicked and he just got it.

In the Colorado State game the secondary will not really be an issue, becuase the Rams quarterback situation is unsettled, but they need to be ready for when Big XII play begins.

Overall the Buffalos most likely will have a record just above .500 and attend a mid-tier bowl; they will not be as bad as last year, but they will not be anything special.

'Twas the Night Before Camp

irish1611 — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:13:09 -0000

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At last, let the journey begin. Finally, no more to talk about than "10 wins, no excuses," preseason rankings, and trying to rationalize the experience of your second team quarterback divided by the factor of 3 to figure out upcoming win potential. It's tough trying to get through the minutia, rehashing on subjects that never seem to go away. Last year it was the off-the-field issues, the year before was the "intramurals" comment and we all know what the offseason of 2009 will be famous for. Hopefully, 2010's offseason will be known for the talk about the resurrection of the Colorado Buffaloes football program.

Hopefully, the 2009 season is about quieting the snickering and the under-the-breath-laughing that most of the nation is displaying towards the "I didn't guarantee 10 wins" by coach Hawkins.

Boy is it good to have actual football back.

Everyone has things they hope to hear about coming out of camp that will make them feel better about the upcoming season, especially this year, as pivotal as it is surrounded by the perpetual statement : "if." The time to answer the "ifs" starts tomorrow!

There are many things to be excited about as camp kicks off but here are five that should get the juices flowing

-The Emergence of a new No. 1 - Yep, it looks like Andre Simmons might be wearing the number 1 this season based on the most recent release of the 2009 roster. Let's hope that it actually comes to fruition. In somewhat of a heroic effort to finish nine classes this spring and summer just to possibly qualify, Andre Simmons will try to pull off another amazing feat to get into "playing shape" and digest the playbook in one month to become a key playmaker. Talk about a whirlwind last few months for Simmons who probably had no idea what he was in for when he committed to the Buffs on February 4^th. I am excited to see the big #1 out there, standing 6'3" weighing in at 210 pounds, showing off his 4.46...something that trumps any Buffs' receiver by almost two tenths of a second. Whether he will be ready to make an immediate impact from week one or even week four against West Virginia remains to be seen but there is excitement around the prospects of such an impact. Still with all the hoopla about Simmons, the real key to gain offensive balance will be the growth of Markques Simas as a true number 1 receiver. Similar to Andre Simmons, Simas has never played in a division one game so the Buffs are counting on a lot of production from the unknown. That being said, the unknowns have talent and the potential to be the best duo at receiver the Buffs have had in a while.

-Eric Kiesau at the Helm - 95^th, 72^nd, 102^nd...that has been the Buffs' total offense ranking the last three years. With the departure of former offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to Oregon in the offseason and the promotion of the popular Eric Kiesau, Buff fans are hoping that the new man in charge can maximize the strengths of the offense. The good news is that the pieces seem to be in a better place than they ever were under Helfrich and let's face it, the numbers can't get much worse. I am excited to see if Kiesau can pump some life into the offense, something he has already done on the recruiting front. Dan Hawkins takes over Kiesau's wide receiver duties with Hawkins stating that Kiesau will be given total autonomy on the X's and O's. It will be fun to watch the impact Hawkins has on one of the biggest question mark positions and at the same time, the game plans Kiesau comes up with.

-One, Two, Three, Four... That's A Stable - the Buffs seem to have four running backs who are all capable of carrying the load. Of course the headliner is Darrell Scott who is still the player most fans will go and see this fall. #2 will be a different player than people will remember seeing last fall. Gone is the 230 pound back and supposedly in is the 210 pound speedster that still has the power that we saw last fall. The newest roster lists Scott at a surprising 225 pounds, though, which is a surprise if it is true due to the statements from many parties, including himself, saying Scott's best playing weight is in the 210 range. Don't forget about Rodney Stewart who is still playing the underdog role after outplaying Darrell Scott a year ago and leading the Buffs in rushing. Stewart and Scott should have a great battle all camp and I think running backs coach Darian Hagan loves pinning the players against each other to breed competition. Don't forget about Demetrius Sumler, who led the Buffs in rushing touchdowns last year, and Brian Lockridge, whose speed quickly catches the eye. Running back drills ought to be highly competitive this fall.

-The Newbies - One of the best things about the first few days of camp is getting a look at the newcomers. Most of us have had to rely on the scouting services' height and weight measurements, 3 minute YouTube highlights and MaxPreps statistics. Yeah, Edward Nuckols, the highly rated defensive tackle from California, didn't qualify but there are still plenty of other players that everyone should get a look at to see if they pass the eyeball test. Nick Kasa, the defensive end from Colorado, should bring in a crowd of onlookers as the Buffs badly need the 6'7" pass rusher to get to the quarterback, preferably in year one. All of the neophytes will be good to see out there but I am especially excited to see Kasa, Forrest West, Terdema Ussery, Nate Bonsu and Liloa Nobriga. Also, I have heard not many newcomers have impressed more this summer than CB Deji Olatoye, the lowest rated recruit in last year's class but possess great athleticism and measurables. Oh yeah, make sure you watch out for that 6'5" quarterback as well.

-Position Battles Galore - There are probably only a handful of players who have starting jobs locked up: OG Ryan Miller, OT Nate Solder, C Mike Iltis, OT Bryce Givens, S Anthony Perkins, P Matt DiLallo, S Patrick Mahnke, FB Jake Behrens and possibly CB Jimmy Smith. Other than that, let the battles begin. Running backs & the quarterback spot will get the most attention this fall but to me, the most exciting is at linebacker. Throw in a bunch of talented players, the possible need for a 3 - 4 defense and coach Brian Cabral's history of producing great units and you have, to me, one of the more intriguing battles. Returning starters Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart were thought to be shoe-ins for a repeat on top of the depth chart but in spring ball, both were in deep competition with Douglas Rippy, B.J. Beatty, Marcus Burton and Michael Sipili. Throw in a healthy Jon Major from the 2008 recruiting class and the Buffs look to have seven players who will be fighting for the three to four spots. Plus, who knows what Forrest West (3 - 4 purposes), Derrick Webb and Liloa Nobriga have to offer. Marcus Burton was lights out in spring ball, showing great range and putting up impressive workout numbers. Who would have thought the 260 pounder would be the fastest backer?

Poll

What position battle are you most excited to see play out this fall?

Quarterback

38 votes

Wide Receiver

59 votes

Linebacker

18 votes

Running Back

77 votes

Defensive Line

25 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

Monday Buff Bites - Counting Down the Days Until Fall Ball

irish1611 — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:25:35 -0000

We are getting closer...really close to the start of it all. In one of the more important seasons in recent memory for the future of Buff football, there is a heightened sense of anticipation. Like Kyle Ringo said in his blog posting this week, no one is quite sure on the Buffs (except for Dan Hawkins) which can be a scary proposition but also an exciting one if the team can break through and surprise on a national level. Those are the types of thoughts you can have in August, everyone is 0 - 0 and everyone can dream.

Cabral expects LBs to be strength on Buffs' defense - Boulder Daily Camera
Brian Cabral, linebacker coach of the Colorado Buffaloes, has a good feeling about this year's linebacker corp. Cabral was not afraid to put some pressure on his group saying that they must compensate for the youth on defensive line while still being productive. I can't wait to watch the defensive fronts this year. All we have heard about was how the defense is going to be creative, establish mismatches and be multiple. I think if the Buffs can find someone to patrol the middle on the defensive line, the 3 - 4 can be very successful with B.J. Beatty and others using their great rush end ability:

"We should be one of the strengths in our defense," Cabral said. "We have to understand the problem. We have to understand the issues and we have to understand our responsibility to make that better. "So my theme going in with my linebackers is, 'Make them right' regardless of what they do. We're going to play off of them and we're going to make the defense right. The onus is on us to adjust, and, at times, cover up the mistakes of a young defensive line."

Scout.com: 2009 Preseason Rankings - No. 31 to 40
Scout.com ranked the Colorado Buffaloes #39 in their most recent countdown. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, that team that is supposed to runaway with the Big 12 North championship, ranked 38th in CFN's countdown.

39. Colorado - Preview | Offense | Defense | Depth Chart Relative Strengths: Running Back, Secondary Relative Weaknesses: Receiver, Defensive Line What to watch for on offense: Darrell Scott. Yeah, this is what recruitniks have been waiting for. Scott was the crown jewel of the 2008 recruiting class as the Buffs were able to steal him away from Texas. Minor injuries, lack of conditioning, and the emergence of other backs led to a disappointing first year, but that has all changed going into this season. He's 202 pounds, has 4% body fat, and he has looked like the NFL-bound total package who can carry the offense through the rough patches. What to watch for on defense: Part 3-4, part 4-3. The Buffs will try to get more out of a front four that has decent size on the outside, but might be better if the ends were used in a three-man front. The strength of the team, other than running back, is at linebacker where Jeff Smart, Marcus Burton, Shaun Mohler, Michael Sipili, and B.J. Beatty are all good enough to start. The coaching staff will try to get as many linebackers on the field as possible to combat spread offenses, and as the season goes on the defense, which wasn't bad last year, should have some big moments and some great games thanks to the back eight.

Hawkins expecting success despite early Colorado struggles - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin is giving the Buffs some good love recently, claiming the Buffs are his darkhorse team to win the North:

The Buffaloes are my dark-horse team in the North Division. Hardly anybody is talking about this with most of the early interest centered on Kansas and Nebraska. But Colorado's schedule and underrated talent might keep them in the North Division title chase longer than most might think.

Scout.com: 2009 CFN All-Redshirt Freshman Team - Defense
Buffs LB Doug Rippy was dubbed by College Football News as a preseason All-Redshirt Freshman Candidate:

LB Douglas Rippy, Colorado – The Buffaloes traveled all the way to Ohio to ink Rippy, and they’re thrilled they did. After playing well on the scout team and improving his strength, he emerged this spring as a starter at one of the outside spots. At 6-1 and 230 pounds, he plays with good pad level and has already displayed the instincts and sure-tackling of a more seasoned player. He should get plenty of chances to make plays and begin building a resume this fall.

A lot more links after the jump...

Scout.com: 2009 CFN All-Redshirt Freshman Team
Buffs OL Bryce Givens was also named to College Football News' All Redshirt Offensive Team:

OT Bryce Givens, Colorado – It hasn’t taken Givens very long to show why he was one of the most coveted tackles of 2008. At 6-6 and 275 pounds, he may not be at his ideal fighting weight quite yet, but he’s headed in the right direction and has the reach and footwork to excel in his debut as the starting right tackle. Already a knee-bender, he’s been well-coached up to this point and has the proper fundamentals to eventually become a dominant pass blocker.

The Longmont Times-Call - 10 CU Players To Watch This Year

The Score with Armstrong and Shapiro " Cody Hawkins Interview 7-30-09
Colorado Buffaloes starting QB Cody Hawkins joins The Score with Armstrong and Shapiro to talk about the upcoming football season. Also Cody talks about what happened to his dad, head coach Dan Hawkins and the recent surgery that he had to remove a . . . well click to find out!

Hawk's Radio Show Moving To Boulder Draft House - CUBuffs.com—Official Athletics Web site of the University of Colorado

University of Colorado football coach Dan Hawkins’ radio show has moved to a new location for the 2009 season – the Boulder Draft House. Buff fans can catch up with Coach Hawk alongside 850 KOA’s Mark Johnson and Larry Zimmer for the Dan Hawkins Show live every Wednesday at 7 p.m. at the new Boulder Draft House, located at 2027 13th Street, less than a block off of Boulder’s world famous Pearl Street Mall. The first show is scheduled for Wednesday, September 2, the Wednesday prior to the Colorado-Colorado State game.

JUCOs to Watch in 2009 - AthlonSports.com
Athlon Sports states that WR Andre Simmons is a JUCO transfer to watch in '09:

Andre Simmons, Colorado - With Josh Smith transferring, the Buffaloes are desperately seeking help in the receiving corps. At 6-foot-3, Simmons should be in contention for a starting spot and could be the big weapon for Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen, as they desperately need to get the passing game going.

A look ahead: Colorado football - The Denver Post

Three things to watch 1. Quarterback controversy? As a true freshman, Tyler Hansen stole the starting job from Cody Hawkins last season. But following spring drills, coaches said that Hawkins had a slight edge. Can Hansen, a better athlete who sometimes lacks consistency and poise, show enough in August camp to make it a bona fide battle? 2. Calling on defensive linemen. Three of last year's starters, George Hypolite, Brandon Nicolas and Maurice Lucas, are gone, leaving end Marquez Herrod to look for help. Sophomore Curtis Cunningham is the leader for one tackle slot. But defensive line coach Romeo Bandison will have to sift through a half-dozen other candidates. 3. Which new wideouts will emerge? In addition to junior-college transfer Andre Simmons and incoming freshmen Jarrod Darden and Terdema Ussery, others new to the fray include sophomore Markques Simas and senior Kevin Moyd, a running back expected to get an audition at receiver. With Josh Smith leaving for UCLA, there's not much experience behind junior Scotty McKnight.

Welcome to My World: Colorado's Riar Geer | NewsOK.com
Colorado tight end Riar Geer has been a starter for the Buffaloes since his redshirt freshman season. The 6-4, 250-pound senior spoke with The Oklahoman's Brandon Chatmon about playing at Nebraska, playing for Dan Hawkins and the fact "It's Division I football, it ain't intramurals!":

Buffs' Solder: 6-feet-9, 305 . . . and counting - The Denver Post
The Denver Post has a good article on the enormous but athletically gifted Nate Solder.

Polling the Big 12: Who has the best and worst mascots? | NewsOK.com

The Oklahoman's Jake Trotter polled 29 of the 38 players at Big 12 Media Days, including at least one from each school. These are their answers. Who has the best mascot? Ralphie (Colorado), 25% Bevo (Texas), 20% Joy and Lady (Baylor), 15% Pistol Pete (Oklahoma State), 10% Herbie Husker and Lil' Red (Nebraska), 10% Other receiving votes: Cy (Iowa State), Big Jay and Baby Jay (Kansas), Truman the Tiger (Missouri), Masked Rider (Texas Tech) Quotable: "It's definitely Ralphie. No one else I know has a buffalo." — a Big 12 North defensive player Quotable II: "They actually have a live bear sitting in the end zone," — a Big 12 North offensive player

The Quad Countdown: No. 32 Kansas - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com
The Quad, the NY Times blog, thinks Kansas will finish outside of the top 25.

"Kansas will be very good, but until the team starts beating the best the Big 12 has to offer, it will remain out of title contention."

Buffs taking studies seriously - Boulder Daily Camera
"The Colorado football program struggled on the field last fall to a 5-7 record, but it improved in the classroom, finishing the semester with a 2.545 GPA, the best since the department began tracking team GPA in 1996."

Big 12 logjam: A team-by-team breakdown as season closes in - USATODAY.com

Colorado: The Buffaloes enter year three of the Dan Hawkins era with a sense of urgency. The Buffs seemed to have turned a corner last season by starting off the season 3-0, but went 2-7 the rest of the way floundering to a 5-7 finish. Junior Cody Hawkins returns for his third season under center, feeling pressure to improve an offense that ranked last in the Big 12 in points a game last season at just over 20. The Buffaloes win the prize for scheduling. The Buffaloes play their annual rivalry game against Colorado State and travel east to play West Virginia. Key game — Nov. 27, Nebraska: The Buffaloes went into last year's game against the Huskers with a chance to be bowl eligible and lost. They might be in the same predicament this season.

Crossfire Q&A: Colorado

RPT — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:00:10 -0000

We've spent the last three days looking at this year's edition of the Colorado Buffaloes both through the numbers and through our skeptically tinted Missouri glasses. Today, we'd proud to welcome aboard our colleagues from The Ralphie Report, SBN's outstanding Buffs blog, for a Q&A session. Ralphie Report provides us with what I believe to be one of the most even-handed assessments I've seen of Colorado all offseason.

RMN: For seemingly the fourth year in a row, Colorado is being looked at as "the sleeper" in the North. Why should people believe this Colorado team is different from the previous three? Also, when does Hawkins' seat start to get warm?

TRR: Great, tough question. I think there are a few reasons to be more optimistic than the last three years but there are plenty of deficiencies that might keep the Buffs mediocre. Colorado is the ultimate "if" team. Tons of "ifs" and preseason hopes about how players and systems will turn out. I think the talent is there but it will come down to "if" we see it on the field. Briefly, here are some of the gains the program has made over Hawkins' first three years and reasons why there may be a change in Boulder:

The Buffs are more experienced (and talented) at many positions like offensive line, linebacker, running back and cornerback. This group of offensive linemen has the ability to lead a top notch running game for the next three years with a solid group of running backs in Darrell Scott, Brian Lockridge, Rodney Stewart and Demetrius Sumler. The Buffs will return starters at every position in 2010 except tight end and fullback so they have solid foundation built for the future. The offense was freshman and sophomores a year ago, now they will be mostly sophomores and juniors. Overall, this team is much more experienced, still relatively young in the grand scheme of things but compared to 2008, we should see improvement.

Cody Hawkins play will improve this year. Last year the Buffs were down multiple offensive linemen and were playing with freshmen in the backfield. The most talented wide receiver on the team in Markques Simas is eligible this season and that will provide a boost. Even though the Buffs lost WR Josh Smith, when you compare the players in 2009 at wide receiver to the past three years, it should be the best group they have had there. It isn't saying a lot obviously but JUCO transfer Andre Simmons (6'3" 210 4.5 forty - 4* transfer) should provide an instant playmaker. Coupled with Markques Simas and Scotty McKnight, this will be the best group the Buffs have had. Not saying it will be a strength of the team but it should be an upgrade.

This team is relatively healthy. In 2008, the Buffs were killed by the injury bug. Just staying healthy and not losing 120 starter games to injury will be an instant improvement.

Coach Eric Kiesau takes over at offensive coordinator for Mark Helfrich who went to Oregon. Many think Kiesau has a better handle on how to utilize the Buffs' strengths and many believe Helfrich's desire to go to the spread offense doomed the team last season. The offensive stats were abysmal under Helfrich so a change was probably for the better.

I think this team is also maturing. This team lacked leadership from the Gary Barnett days and now the youthful team has grown and I believe there is more accountability and maturity evolving.

Are the Buffs going to win 10 games next year? No, but they have a chance to win 8, which is an improvement and something many fans could live with.

As for Dan Hawkins being on the hot seat, I think he feels the heat. You don't say "10 wins and no excuses" if you don't feel the need for big progress on the field. With that being said, I think it would take a monumental collapse for Hawkins to be fired after this season. Two or three wins might get him fired but the athletic department has already made it pretty clear that financially, buying out Hawkins' contract and paying a new coach would be detrimental to the budget and considering the economic times, I don't think the University could afford it. Sounds crazy but that is reality. Not saying that is the right way to conduct your business but I think that is what will ultimately keep Hawkins around if he wins 5 games this year. We are praying for Hawkins to succeed. You have to look at your program and wonder who could the Buffs get that would be better? The University of Colorado, because of a state law can't offer their assistant coaches multi-year deals. Hawkins is one of the lowest paid coaches in the Big 12. Take just those two situations into account; you start to wonder who better would take this position. We need Dan Hawkins to succeed. For me that is 7+ wins and a bowl game (preferably a win), not the highest of standards, I know, but that is progress.

Much more from Ralphie Report after the jump!

RMN: How much improvement is expected from Darrell Scott this year? How heavily will he be featured in the offense?

TRR: We expect a huge year from Darrell Scott and we believe he will be the key part of the offense...he better be. He is a different running back this year. He was a freshman in 2008 and I think people forget that and what they did when they were freshman in college. He is in better shape, dropping 20+ pounds from last season. He is back to his best playing weight at 210 pounds, cut and fast but still with the strength that can make him a special back. He has the talent developing around him so I think he is poised to break out. I have been very impressed with Scott both on and off the field and I think with the pressure somewhat off of him this season, he will rise to the occasion and surprise people.

RMN: How is the comfort level with Colorado's quarterback play amongst fans? What are the expectations for the Buffs under center?

TRR: Comfort level on a scale of 1 - 10: 2 ½. We are not comfortable but we expect improvement. Like Darrell Scott, Cody Hawkins should benefit from a better core around him with more experience. We are hoping the new offensive coordinator helps as well, getting out of the attempt to run the spread and into a more rhythm based offense that plays to Cody's strength of being a facilitator rather than a game changer with his feet and arm. I believe Cody is plenty capable and with more around him, his numbers should improve to be considered a consistent quarterback. He will be a junior so we should expect growth. It doesn't mean we are comfortable, though. If the Buffs can get consistency of any sort from their quarterback play, 8 wins is a possibility.

RMN: A lot of attention last year focused on the struggles of the Colorado offense despite fairly decent numbers from the CU defense, which led the Big 12 in pass defense. How is this unit expected to perform in 2009?

TRR: The pass defense was better than average last year but the Buffs also dodged teams like OU and Texas Tech, played three mediocre passing teams at the time in Florida State, West Virginia and Colorado State plus they couldn't stop the run ranking 9th in the conference and 86th overall so teams pounded the ball. It doesn't mean the secondary wasn't good last year but it is a misleading stat in my book. That being said, I think the cornerbacks have a chance to be one of the best units on the team and among the elite in the conference. CB Jimmy Smith should be a first round pick in a year or two and Cha'pelle Brown, Jalil Brown, Ben Burney and Anthony Wright are all very serviceable. The linebacker corps is stacked with talent which may prompt the Buffs to move to a 3 - 4. Last year's linebacker starters and all conference performers, Jeff Smart and Shaun Mohler return but aren't guaranteed their starting spots back as this unit is deep. The defensive line is the concern. The Buffs were senior heavy at the position last year with little playing time or production from the underclassmen. It's not that they are bad players (we don't think); it's just that we don't know what we are going to get from them since they will be relatively unproven and young. Pass rush was a key issue last year and it will be this year as well which is why I think CU will use the 3 - 4 a little bit more to get the most out of their linebackers and getting to the quarterback from multiple angles. You might see true freshmen DE Nick Kasa and DT Edward Nuckols get solid time on the defensive line this season as both have big upside. If the Buffs can find a solid defensive line, this could be a top 4 or 5 defensive in the conference.

RMN: The matchup with Missouri has presented all kinds of problems for CU over the last two years. With all the attrition at Missouri and the game being at Folsom Field in 2009, do you think Missouri is in a prime spot for Colorado to end this mini-streak the Tigers have started?

TRR: We feel better about the game compared to the last two years that is for sure. I think everyone who plays Missouri can say that right now. In 2010, that may be a different story but for now we are happy to see Coffman, Maclin and Daniel gone.

Missouri is pretty unknown in my book due to all of that attrition so any predictions may be crazy at this point but Mizzou loses their offensive coordinator (makes us happy after the 100+ points put up on us the last two years) and key weapons on the offensive side of the ball. I think I read somewhere that Missouri returns the fewest starters from a year ago in the Big 12 which could be a big deal, especially on the road, just ask the Buffs who have been considered inexperienced for the past three years and have won just two games away from Boulder.

Let's face it, if Dan Hawkins and this regime want to show progress, this is a game the Buffs should win. It is at home, technically Missouri is regrouping at a few important positions, Colorado is gaining experience, etc...these are the games that should be won if your program is on the rise.

RMN: Finish the following phrases:

-- Colorado will win if: Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin don't return to b*tch slap our secondary again. Seriously, though, if the Buffs can get any play from Cody Hawkins, they should be fine this year and in the Missouri game. I think the defensive line will come around but getting any sort of offensive production is crucial. The Buffs won't beat Kansas, Missouri or Nebraska, all at home in 2009, with the 95th ranked offense.

-- Missouri will win if: Blaine Gabbert and the relative inexperience on this team can mature quickly to be able to win on the road. I think a lot depends on the quarterback play for both teams.

RMN: Give us your non-binding, WAY too early score prediction for the MU/CU game.

TRR: 27 - 24 Buffs, it's not binding right? Of course I am going to pick the Buffs.

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

RPT — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:30:08 -0000

Our Colorado cohorts at The Ralphie Report have once again solicited the powers that be in the Big 12 Blogosphere here at SB Nation to determine the SB Nation Preseason All-Big 12 Team. As Rock M Nation's representative in the voting process, here's how my ballot will appear. It must be noted that bloggers are NOT allowed to vote for players on teams they cover. As an aside, I must give a major shoutout to the SB Nation tech team, whose "Autotag" tool probably just imploded upon linking this post.

On to the ballot!

Quarterback (2)

Nominees: Jerrod Johnson (TAMU), Austen Arnaud (ISU), Taylor Potts (TTU), Sam Bradford (OU), Zac Robinson (OSU), Blaine Gabbert, Robert Griffin (BU), Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing (KU), Daniel Thomas (KSU)

The Vote: Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford

Notes: You can go around looking for ways to justify other picks, but it's going to be McCoy and Bradford at the top. I'm just glad we're selecting two quarterbacks so I don't have to decide between them and draw the ire of one of the fan bases. At the same time, you've got to feel for Reesing, Robinson and Griffin, dynamic players who'd be shoo-ins in a lot of other conferences.

Running Back (2)

Nominees: Roy Helu Jr. (NU), Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Christine Michael (TAMU), Chris Brown (OU), DeMarco Murray (OU), Kendall Hunter (OSU), Derrick Washington, Darrell Scott (CU), Rodney Stewart (CU), Jay Finley (BU), Jake Sharp (KU), Cody Johnson (UT), Vondrell McGee (UT), Foswhitt Whittaker (UT)

The Vote: Kendall Hunter, Chris Brown, DeMarco Murray

Notes: I went with the Oklahoma trio here. Kendall Hunter may well be the best back in the conference. Brown and Murray are a formidable 1-2 punch, assuming Murray is capable of staying healthy in 2009. Derrick Washington would have been my pick over one of these two had the blogger/player restrictions not been in place. I fought with including Roy Helu on the ballot. Helu came on hot at the end of 2008 (he averaged almost 10 yards a carry in a 157-yard day at Oklahoma) and could very well prove me wrong. Darrell Scott still has a lot to prove.

Fullback (1)

Nominees: Matt Clapp (OU), Jake Behrens (CU)

The Vote: Matt Clapp

Notes: I see no reason to unseat the reigning All-Big 12 fullback.

Wide Receiver (3)

Nominees: Ryan Tannehill (TAMU), Jeff Fuller (TAMU), Darius Darks (ISU), Detron Lewis (TTU), Edward Britton (TTU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, David Gettis (BU), Dezmon Briscoe (KU), Jordan Shipley (UT), Kerry Meier (KU), Brandon Banks (KSU), Jonathan Wilson (KU), Malcolm Williams (UT)

The Vote: Dez Bryant, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley

Notes: Bryant has the unenviable task of trying to replace Michael Crabtree as the conference's best receiver, even though some call Bryant "a superior receiver" to Crabtree. Briscoe continues to be undervalued by the conference as a whole, and Shipley -- one of the conference's most consistent producers over the last few seasons -- has seen his stock rise in the national eye since last year's Red River Shootout. Honorable mentions go out to Kerry Meier, Brandon Banks and Detron Lewis, and player to watch mentions go out to Jeff Fuller and Malcolm Williams.

Rest of the ballot after the jump!

Tight End (2)

Nominees: Mike McNeill (NU), Jamie McCoy (TAMU), Jermaine Gresham (OU), Andrew Jones, Riar Geer (CU), Patrick Devenny (CU), Tim Biere (KU)

The Vote: Jermaine Gresham and Mike McNeill

Notes: Gresham is the no-brainer with the first vote. I know we're supposed to scoff at Nebraska right now, but I feel like McNeill is the only Husker that's being underhyped. A tight end like that is a tremendous asset in the process of breaking in a new quarterback.

Offensive Line (5)

Nominees: Jacob Hickman (NU), Mike Smith (NU), Brandon Carter (TTU), Marlon Winn (TTU), Trent Williams (OU), Brady Bond (OSU), Russell Okung (OSU), Kurtis Gregory, Elvis Fisher, Dan Hoch, Tim Barnes, Nate Solder (CU), Ryan Miller (CU), Adam Ulatoski (UT), Chris Hall (UT), Nick Stringer (KSU), JD Walton (Baylor), James Barnard (BU), Charlie Tanner (UT), Jeremiah Hatch (KU), Kyle Hixx (UT)

The Vote: Brandon Carter, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Adam Ulatoski, Chris Hall

Notes: I'd be lying to you if I said I had hard and fast reasoning for selecting individual lineman. I do hope the other Big 12 bloggers give some love to Gregory and Barnes, who we've extolled here at RMN many times.

Interior D-Line (2)

Nominees: Ndamukong Suh (NU), Eddie Brown (Texas A&M), Colby Whitlock (Texas Tech), DeMarcus Granger (OU), Gerald McCoy (OU), Jaron Baston, Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU), Lamarr Houston (UT)

The Vote: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

Notes: Another relatively painless selection. Even a second team of any two of the trio of Granger, Fitzgerald and Houston would be extremely stout.

Defensive End (2)

Nominees: Pierre Allen (NU), Barry Turner (NU), Matt Featherston (TAMU), Jeremy Beal (OU), Auston English (OU), Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, Brandon Herald (KSU), Jake Laptad (KU), Sergio Kindle (UT)

The Vote: Sergio Kindle, Auston English

Notes: I know Jeremy Beal is getting most of the pundit love at DE for Oklahoma, but I remain a massive apologist for English when he's healthy. Maybe it's all just fallout from seeing English singlehandedly dominate Mizzou in person in Norman back in 2007. And, oh yeah, Sergio Kindle is a physical freak of nature.

Linebacker (4)

Nominees: Von Miller (TAMU), Brian Duncan (TTU), Marlon Williams (TTU), Keenan Clayton (OU), Travis Lewis (OU), Patrick Lavine (OSU), Sean Weatherspoon, Luke Lambert, Jeff Smart (CU), Shaun Mohler (CU), BJ Beatty (CU), Joe Pawelek (BU), Andre Sexton (OSU), Rod Muckelroy (UT)

The Vote: Joe Pawelek, Andre Sexton, Travis Lewis, Von Miller

Notes: Let's all take a moment to pour one out for Sean Weatherspoon, who is required to be left off my ballot. Pawelek enters what seems like his 37th year of eligibility at Baylor. Sexton and Lewis are relatively safe picks, while I take my one big departure from security and select A&M's Von Miller as my fourth 'backer. Miller is really more of a "project pick" here, as he's got the physical skills to be as good any other linebacker nominated if he's able to carve out his own role in Joe Kines' system. If it all comes together, Miller could turn into the type of player Kines had in Demeco Ryans at Alabama.

Cornerback (2)

Nominees: Leonard Johnson (ISU), Jamar Wall (TTU), Dominique Franks (OU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Carl Gettis, Jimmy Smith (CU), Cha'pelle Brown (CU), Josh Moore (KSU), Justin Thornton (KU), Daymond Patterson (KU), Chykie Brown (UT), Deon Beasley (UT)

The Vote: Dominique Franks, Josh Moore

Notes: A surprisingly solid list of nominees here. Franks was a second team All-Big 12 selection last year, and Moore quietly had a good year in the midst of a forgettable season for K-State. Brown would have been next on my radar, with Johnson, Wall, and Beasley close behind.

Safety (2)

Nominees: Larry Asante (NU), Trent Hunter (TAMU), Jordan Pugh (TAMU), Kenji Jackson, Jordan Lake (BU), Earl Thomas (UT), Blake Gideon (UT), Darrell Stuckey (KU), Phillip Strozier (KU)

The Vote: Jordan Lake, Darrell Stuckey

Notes: I'm probably drawing the wrath of the Burnt Orange Nation community by excluding two very talented young safeties in Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon, but Lake and Stuckey are certainly deserving of the nods here. Lake means to the Baylor defensive backfield what Pawelek means to Baylor's linebacking corps. Stuckey was ALL over the field at Arrowhead last year, and has to be the top safety in the Big 12 North (this despite my almost irrational love of Kenji Jackson).

Kicker (1)

Nominees: Alex Henery (NU), Hunter Lawrence (UT)

The Vote: Alex Henery

Notes: Hard to make the call here, but the cannon attached to Henery's hip gave Nebraska the win that COMPLETELY changed the outlook for the Huskers in 2009.

Punter (1)

Nominees: Mike Brandtner (ISU), Jake Harry, Derek Epperson (BU), Ryan Doerr (KSU), Alonzo Rojas (KU)

The Vote: Derek Epperson

Notes: Epperson is the returning leader in punt average, which is good enough for me. My apologies to Jake Harry.... THE FOURTH.

Kick Returner (1)

Nominees: Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Leonard Johnson (ISU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Jordan Shipley (UT)

The Vote: Perrish Cox

Notes: Cox and Bryant are somewhat interchangeable here, and since Bryant's already feeling the love, I decided to go with Cox. I would have had no qualms with Shipley in this slot either.

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took at look at what really was an impressively bad offense that Colorado put on the field in 2008. That the Buffs came within a game of bowl eligibility must speak volumes of their defense, right?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 110.1 (#33)
Success Rate+: 105.3 (#45)
PPP+: 116.1 (#34)

Standard Downs S&P+: 108.6 (#36)
Passing Downs S&P+: 124.0 (#15)

Redzone S&P+: 109.5 (#37)

Q1 S&P+: 107.0 (#43)
Q2 S&P+: 122.7 (#20)
Q3 S&P+: 98.4 (#62)
Q4 S&P+: 123.1 (#15)

1st Down S&P+: 108.7 (#37)
2nd Down S&P+: 102.3 (#52)
3rd Down S&P+: 135.5 (#8)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 103.1 (#56)
Rushing SR+: 102.6 (#53)
Rushing PPP+: 103.8 (#55)

Standard Downs: 101.7 (#58)
Passing Downs: 104.4 (#57)

Redzone: 96.2 (#76)

Line Yards+: 98.3 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.3 (#18)
Passing SR+: 107.1 (#34)
Passing PPP+: 125.0 (#18)

Standard Downs: 116.0 (#14)
Passing Downs: 129.9 (#15)

Redzone: 129.8 (#13)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.9% (#61)

While the offense was almost universally bad in every category, the defense was a lot more interesting to analyze--quite a few ups and downs.

They were decent on Standard Downs and excellent on Passing Downs. When I see a team better on Passing Downs, I assume that their LB corps must be pretty good at blitzing, but that's a bit of a generalization.
This is reflected in the per-down numbers as well--they were mediocre on 2nd downs and great on 3rd downs.
Their best quarter: Q4. Makes sense if you think about it. A) They lost four games by 16 points or more, and in "non-close" situations, the trailing team usually has the advantage while the leading team is running the ball and killing the clock. B) When they were in close games down the stretch, they usually thrived. As mentioned yesterday, they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and while that ignores the Nebraska game--they were leading by one with two minutes left before Nebraska scored a quick 10 points that deceptively boosted the scoring margin--clearly they were still pretty good when the game was close.
While their success rates (efficiency) and PPP (explosiveness) were roughly the same in rushing defense, Colorado did see a decent split between their passing defense success rates (34th) and PPP (18th). That usually suggests relatively loose coverage and good tackling--you can get efficient, short gains against them, but you're not necessarily going to burn them deep a lot.
Neither line play measure was particularly impressive.

Defensive Line

Herrod (#90) is about the only returner who has made any plays whatsoever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #58 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Marquez Herrod (6'2, 265, Jr.)
DT Eugene Goree (6'1, 295, So.)
DT Taj Kaynor (6'5, 265, Sr.)
DE Conrad Obi (6'3, 265, So.)
DT Curtis Cunningham (6'1, 275, So.)
DE Lagrone Shields (6'3, 270, So.)
DT Will Pericak (6'4, 265, RSFr.)
DE Tony Poremba (6'1, 230, So.)

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the list above combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

Linebackers

Smart (#45)

2008 Unit Ranking: #36 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jeff Smart (6'0, 220, Sr.)
Shaun Mohler (6'3, 220, Sr.)
BJ Beatty (6'2, 220, Jr.)
Doug Rippy (6'1, 230, RSFr.)
Michael Sipili (6'1, 240, Jr.)
Jon Major (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Marcus Burton (6'0, 260, Sr.)

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Secondary

Mighty mite Cha'pelle Brown is a rock-solid corner.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Cha'pelle Brown (5'7, 170, Sr.)
CB Jimmy Smith (6'2, 200, Jr.)
S Anthony Perkins (5'10, 200, So.)
S Patrick Mahnke (6'1, 205, So.)
CB Benjamin Burney (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Jalil Brown (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Travis Sandersfeld (6'0, 205, So.)
S Ray Polk (6'1, 190, RSFr.)

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

Special Teams

Aric Goodman MUST improve in 2009.

2008 Unit Rankings: #80 Net Punting, #56 Punt Returns, #38 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Aric Goodman (5'10, 185, Jr.) - 30-for-31 PAT, 5-for-14 FG
P Matt DiLallo (6'1, 200, Sr.) - 34.0 Net Avg
KR - Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
PR - Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? I could probably manage to go about 2- or 3-for-14*, so he was only about six points better than me as a kicker. He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

* Okay, maybe 1-for-14. Fine, 0-for-14. I'd have kicked every ball directly into the ass of a lineman seven yards ahead of me.

Meanwhile, here's where Josh Smith's loss could possibly hit the hardest. Again, Smith wasn't all-conference material or anything, but while he averaged a decent 13.3 yards per catch (best among CU receivers), he was quite good in the return game, averaging 10.4 yards per punt return (point of reference: Jeremy Maclin averaged 11.0) and 25.5 per kick return (Maclin: 24.0) with 1 TD. Assuming he doesn't get coerced into staying in Boulder, then it looks like the early leaders to replace him are Rodney Stewart at KR and Jason Espinoza at PR. I have nothing valuable about whether they're any good at returning kicks, so instead I'll just point out that they're very little. So there you go.

Summary

As I mentioned in yesterday's intro, I'm trying as hard as I can not to be biased about Colorado. I think they're young enough that they really could be solid in 2010 and maybe 2011, but it's really annoying me that it appears writers are once again jumping the gun too early on them, picking them as a North sleeper for what I think is the fourth straight year. They've got a solid-not-flashy LB corps and potentially very good secondary. They've also got a lot of unproven potential at RB and on the O-line. But that's about it. They have nothing proven at WR or on the D-line, and unfortunately I think Cody Hawkins has proven a bit too much at QB. They would be better served floating under the radar for another year and figuring out what they have, particularly at WR. But instead, people are once again ranking them in the Top 40 and calling them a sleeper, meaning they'll be expected to produce a little earlier than I think they're capable of producing. Not that I'm losing sleep over these preseason picks or anything, but it's not fair to Colorado to expect anything major from them just yet--I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think they're still a year away.

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Projections on Friday. And I'm warning you now--as down as I appear to be on CU, the BTBS projections are infinitely more down on them. Shockingly down on them...to the point where I almost want to stick up for them a bit.