SB Nation - Curtis Cunningham

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

Crossfire Q&A: Colorado

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:30:35 -0000

WIth the game in Boulder inching ever closer, our colleague irish1611 from The Ralphie Report took the time to answer a few questions for us. My spot over at The Ralphie Report can be found here.

RMN: The Missouri defense is expecting Tyler Hansen to start, and I know your community has been clamoring for Hawk to start and stick with him for awhile now. Is The Cody Hawkins Experiment™ finally done? And what expectations do you have for Hansen down the stretch?

TRR: Is the Cody Hawkins experiment done...honestly, no one really knows with this staff but if Tyler Hansen is pulled this weekend in Boulder, it will be an ugly scene. Implying that Tyler Hansen was incapable of running the two minute drill so Cody needed to be inserted was a pretty ridiculous event last week that made you wonder what this staff was thinking. I am sure as a quarterback that doesn't do any favors for Tyler Hansen mentally as the staff is pretty much saying we don't think you are capable for a full game, especially in pressure situations. Bottom line, no one knows and it isn't fair to either Cody or Tyler. What is the benefit for Cody? He comes in cold, trying to lead an offense a series here and a series there? Both of these quarterbacks don't offer enough to do what a team like Michigan does where they put Denard Robinson in for a wildcat like setting. The flip flopping at quarterback doesn't make sense so we hope it is done. Hopefully that doesn't sound vindictive against Cody Hawkins, it isn't his fault he is at the center of this, it is the coaches fault. He is just doing what he is told to do, he just hasn't been a successful quarterback.

As for expectations around Tyler Hansen, one thing we would like to see is more utilization of his feet and running ability. Against Kansas, he single handidly kept plays alive and ran for first downs. Against Kansas State, the staff kept him under wraps, didn't get him involved in the running game which led Kansas State to just tee up on him. Once again, we are seeing a coaching staff trying to mold the player to the scheme rather than trying to find the best scheme to fit the player. See the spread offense experiment last year. We didn't have the players to do that but the staff tried to force our players into the scheme. Last week, we saw Kansas State run the option, the wildcat and use a quarterback with half the athletic ability of Tyler Hansen in the running game and it was wildly successful. It was frustrating because their is a first hand look at getting the ball in your playmakers' hands and trying to exploit a defense creatively with it.

RMN: How has Colorado progressed since the brutal stretch of play to open the season? Was the Kansas win a sign of improvement, an aberration, or both?

TRR: Hopefully you meant the brutal stretch to open Big 12 play! The Buffs lost to Colorado State and Toledo to start the year. The improvement of this team has been on the defensive side of the ball. They held Texas down, Kansas got most of their yards in the second half but the Buffs defense forced two turnovers that led to 14 Buff points and against Kansas State, they held them to under 300 yards. So the defense has been pretty great down the stretch. The problem has been the offense and special teams. Against Texas and Kansas State, the Buffs' offense and special teams gave up at least 31 points. Yes, Texas scored three non-offensive touchdowns and against Kansas State, 10 points was a direct result of redzone turnovers by the special teams and offense. The big problem last week is the Buffs didn't cross the 50 yard line after the first drive of the game until the middle of the fourth quarter...which makes the defensive performance more amazing in that they were always backed up and playing in Kansas State territory.

Until the special teams and offense start to help the defense, this team will continue to lose games.

RMN: Earlier in the week, you guys noted Colorado's struggles in the second half of Big 12 games. To what do you attribute that decline?

TRR: Coaching, a lack of preparation and a failure to make second half adjustments equal to the opposition. The Buffs have scored one touchdown and ten total points in the second half the last three games To me, that is poor coaching resulting in a failure to execute. Colorado was beating Texas at half. The Buffs had a 21 point lead in the second quarter against Kansas and almost lost the game if it wasn't for a 3rd and 19 conversion on the game scoring drive in the fourth quarter. The Buffs are 2 - 18 on the road in the Dan Hawkins era because of the failure to get the team prepared and make adjustments. This could easily be a one win team right now.

RMN: What's the book on the CU defense so far in conference play? It seemed like K-State was able to pile up rushing yardage with ease and Kansas was able to move the ball pretty effectively through the air. Are the numbers telling or deceiving?

TRR: They are deceiving. Yes, Kansas got some pretty good yardage throwing in the second half but for the most part, the Buffs were solid against them, especially in the first half causing a few turnovers. To me, that is just Todd Reesing getting his and Dezmon Briscoe making unbelievable plays. Against Kansas State, the Buffs defense was only accountable for 10 points and for the most part, was playing with their back to the goaline all day because of poor special teams and offensive play. I think the defense has come to play after the West Virginia game, they are blitzing from multiple areas with the linebackers and for the most part, they have stopped the big play from occuring which plagued this unit earlier in the year. They have certainly made an improvement as the year has gone on. Trust me, they are getting zero help from anyone else on this team.

RMN: If you were an opposing coach, how would you attack the CU offense and defense? Is there a specific blueprint for success for beating the Buffs?

TRR: The Buffs usually beat themselves so a great gameplan might not be needed. Attacking the CU offense - first, if the Missouri offense can get a lead, the Buffs will abandon the running game. They have done it many times this year and it is easy to make these guys one dimensional. First things first is to stop the running game. Then it is all about keeping the defense multiple and confusing Tyler Hansen. He is still very young and very inexperienced. The more you can get him second guessing what he is seeing out there, the better it will be for the defense. Colorado is not very explosive on offense, to put it mildly, so I would put eight in the box and dare the Buffs to beat me deep.

As for the CU defense, I don't think it will be as easy to dismantle them but this coming from a team that has given up over 100 points to Missouri the past two years. Who knows. For the most part, the last three games (Kansas State had some early success), the run defense has been pretty stout. If I was Missouri, I would take my shots early down the field. Ray Polk, Ben Burney and Anthony Perkins have been doing pretty well at safety but all are pretty inexperienced back there and Texas did have some luck on double move routes getting behind the defense. The Buffs have been pretty solid against the intermediate passing game and have some relatively solid corners. They have kept the Buffs in a lot of games especially the last three. The defensive line has overacheived to expectations based on the strong play of true freshman Nate Bonsu, true freshman Forrest West and true sophomore Curtis Cunningham. Junior DE Marquez Herrod has played well also.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

TB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:48 -0000

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12. Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win. I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly? Yes. It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly. Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple. The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright. Two home games against division opponents remain. Odds: 10-1

Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it. Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU. Oh, and no confidence right now. Odds: 12-1

KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error. Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits. Odds: 15-1

Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left. Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now. Odds: 15-1

While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson. Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win. Odds: 30-1

Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback. Also, can't win on the road. Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion. Odds: 50-1

Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU). I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point. Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game. A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins. However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table. We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level. But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win. They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams. They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska). There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games. Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis. Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams). Yes, I thought Louisiana was better. They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in. Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS. When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall. Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete. Defensively, they're very, very good. Offensively, they struggle. I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling. K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best. Ditto A&M and Texas Tech. I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team. I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points. I still think OSU does have what it takes. It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget. The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake. On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise. Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen. No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1. Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2. Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3. Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4. Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!" Way to throw one of your own under the bus. But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5. K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here. The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6. Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense. Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points? If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7. KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now. Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8. Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now. If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again. If he doesn't, they're not.
9. Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2. Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win. On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10. Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week. Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11. Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan. Buffs need to regroup.
12. Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Browse more photos »

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Colorado Buffaloes Respond, Defeat Previously Unbeaten Kansas Jayhawks

irish1611 — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:05:15 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

about 1 month ago: Colorado wide receiver Markques Simas, front, pulls in a pass for a long gain as Kansas safety Chris Harris comes in to cover in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

It looked like the Colorado Buffaloes were going to lose their second consecutive game after leading at halftime. That feeling of having a snake bitten year creeped in every fans mind after Todd Reesing capitalized on a few Buff turnovers to bring the Jayhawks back from a 24 - 3 deficit to take the lead 30 - 27. It would have been a fitting ending to a four year career that started with a win against Colorado and would have cemented Reesing as a player that Colorado fans would never forget as a big thorn in their side.

13 minutes left in the game and the Buffs needed to respond, something they hadn't done with any consistency the past four years. Enter sophomore quarterback Tyler Hansen.

CU fans were hoping that Hansen would do his best Reesing like impression, someone he tries to emulate, to lead Colorado to a win. Hansen and the offense responded.

After a five yard false start penalty on TE Riar Geer pushing the Buffs back to the 19 yard line followed by two incomplete passes, it looked like Colorado would fall short once again. On 3rd and 15, Tyler Hansen responded moving within the pocket to find Geer for 29 yards converting the long third down and getting the offensive motor started back up. Reesing has had many third and forever conversions in his collegiate career, maybe the Buffs version of Reesing had a coming out party of his own with that pass. Hansen went on to convert two more third downs, one by air, one by feet that helped the Buffs cap off a 10 play, 76 yard drive with seven points and a 34 - 30 lead.

Not a bad showing for a guy that was used sparingly a year ago in four games and was supposed to redshirt this year after Cody Hawkins was named starter in the fall. Hansen finished 14 - 25, 175 yards threw the air with a touchdown and rushed for 34 yards and another score. He did have one fumble and an interception but the defense held serve, only allowing three points on those two possessions. Rodney Stewart made up for his one fumble rushing for over 100 yards and two scores.

What you won't see in the stats are four things that separated Hansen's performance from the previous games:

1) His ability to buy time was clearly what this offense needed. Hansen showed that he can drop back and throw in a rhythm but he also had the knack to get outside the pocket, buy time and make plays. What I am excited for is when the receiver to quarterback relationships continue to develop with Hansen, those plays when Hansen gets out of the pocket will become even more potent.

2) The offense was much more fluid and seemed like they had a chance to make plays. The previous four weeks, it seemed like the Buffs needed every ounce of energy to gain five yards. Granted, the Kansas defense provides little resistance but the CU offense had plenty of plays that were over 10 yards and were able to get five receivers the ball early in the game. Hansen got WR Markques Simas on a 36 yard fade route early in the game that seemed to add another dimension to this offense. Bottom line, with Hansen at the helm the offense looked less constricted and shedded the cookie cutter scheme that led to only 127 yards a week ago. The Buffs had more rushing yards against Kansas than total yards against Texas.

3) Eric Kiesau's play calling was much improved with Hansen in there. Yes, getting an early lead helped but the Buffs ran the ball 43 times to 25 pass attempts, the ratio we hoped for at the beginning of the year. But you could tell based on the variety of plays Kiesau was able to call, he could dial up a few more things that he hadn't been able to in the past. Quarterback draws, quick hitting long out routes for 7 - 8 yards from the pocket, belly option reads, a well executed screen pass to Darrell Scott, etc. Kiesau's team looked much more comfortable.

4) The defense had to account for 11 players and not 10. Plain and simple, the quarterback made plays and was a threat to make plays all game. Two plays that ended up as drops but could have made highlight reels on ESPN this morning was the two scrambling efforts by Hansen, one dropped by Sumler and the other by Stewart deep down the field. Those plays wouldn't have had any chances to be completed a week ago.

The Buffs did most of their damage in the second quarter scoring 24 points, 14 of which came off two Todd Reesing turnovers forced by the defense. You couldn't have asked for a better defensive performance in the first half from Ron Collins' squad. They allowed ten points to a top five offense in the first 30 minutes of play and really controlled the line of scrimmage. Reesing and Co. got going late in the first half and the third quarter but the Buffs came up big the last two drives of the game when they needed it. The only trouble the Buffs had against Reesing was when they dropped 8 and limited the pass rush, especially the last drive of the first half or when Reesing would improvise, heave one up to Dezmon Briscoe and the All American duo would come up with a miraculous play. Many will be worried about the 431 yards passing but a ton of those yards were just great plays that Briscoe and Reesing made a play on, not long run and catches that plagued the Buffs the first three weeks of the season. That is why Reesing is a Heisman mention and Briscoe, along with Jordan Shipley, should be considered two of the top four receivers in the nation. Kansas needed a few trick plays to dent the Buffs defense as well but in the five big drives that Kansas had, the Buffs only gave up six points. Three turnovers, the Colorado defense responded only allowing six points (two field goals) and shut down the Jayhawks on the last two possessions of the game.

Kansas also did the Colorado Buffaloes a favor, not establishing the running game at all. In an unbelievable stat, the Colorado defense held the Kansas Jayhawks to -8 yards rushing on 22 attempts. Strip out Reesing's negative fourty yards and Jake Sharp still only gained 29 yards on 13 carries. Talk about a turnaround. Through the first four games of the year, Colorado's defense gave up 205 yards a game on the ground. The last two weeks against arguably the two favorites to play in the Big 12 championship: 19 yards per game. That defensive line anchored by three true freshman, Curtis Cunningham and Marquez Herrod have improved greatly.

There are plenty of reasons to also think this offense and defense can get better. Briefly, turnovers and penalties still plague the offense. The Buffs turned the ball over twice deep in their own territory, the defense held but to continue to rattle off wins, you can't lose the turnover battle and expect to emerge victorious. It is the most important comparative statistic in football. Luckily, the Buffs scored 14 points on Kansas turnovers and Kansas only scored 6 points on the three Colorado giveaways.

Also on the offensive side of the ball, the Buffs continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the Big 12. Eight infractions, mostly false starts consistently put the Buffs at a disadvantage. We saw it last week with Nate Solder, this week Riar Geer, who had a solid receiving game including a touchdown, had the issues with the snap count. Those two players are two of the more veteran players on the team. They know they can't have those penalties. Some of the issue might be getting used to a new quarterbacks' cadence. The penalties need to be cut in half.

Darrell Scott is doing a good job returning kick offs, maybe we should give him a shot at punt returns. I get the idea for a sure handed returner back there now with Jason Espinoza but he has not provided the burst and big game potential the Buffs need. He is the complete opposite of Josh Smith last year, being little risk and no reward although last night Espinoza almost muffed the ball himself. I think if Darrell Scott is only getting a few touches on offense, this might be a good spot for him in the future. Espinoza does a great job not fumbling but I would sure like to get more out of the special teams game.

A great win any way you cut it after the past few weeks of the season. It is a whole new ball game in the North with Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas all losing yesterday. Kansas State, the Buffs next opponent, sits on top of the North after dismantling the Texas A&M Aggies 62 - 14. That game now looks to be more competitive than once expected and could have some ramifications come seasons end if both teams can maintain their level of play. Remember Phil Steele predicting Kansas State to finish tied with the Buffs at second in the North? He might not be that far off if both teams play like this for the rest of the season and the other teams in the North continue to struggle. What a difference a playmaking quarterback is!

A few quick hitters I noticed:

-Jimmy Smith had strong support and good physical play in the first quarter. Seems one step slow on a few occasions but extremely talented. Marquez Herrod's sack in the first quarter was a direct result of Jimmy Smith's great coverage on Briscoe in the red zone.

-Forrest West and Nate Bonsu have the potential to be great.

-Kansas never really tried to run the ball, were never committed and it made it easier on the defense.

-Rodney Stewart just hits the hole hard, gets up in there, hardly ever tackled for a loss.

-With protection, I love how Hansen drops back, plants and goes forward with the ball. He works in a good rhythm if he can stand in the pocket and the ball is not late out of his hands.

-Defense is hitting well and tackling well.

-Ben Burney does very well coming up to the line of scrimmage and making tackles. Looks good as a safety.

-First half defense was great, good mix of blitzes and coverage schemes.

Early Morning Gameday Buff Bites - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Kansas Jayhawks

irish1611 — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:00:29 -0000

"3 Questions: Kansas at Colorado" by Going Into Overtime | KUsports.com

Colorado's problem could be its offensive line. Junior left tackle Nate Solder is the Buffaloes' lone upperclassman up front. Perhaps because of the line's inexperience, Colorado has surrendered a quarterback sack on approximately six percent of its drop-back pass plays. Compare that to KU's mark of approximately three percent. One has to imagine the same ineffectiveness might be rubbing off on the Colorado run game. If the Jayhawks contain Stewart on first and second downs and put Colorado in unfavorable down-and-distance situations, the Buffaloes' young quarterback could have a tough time generating first downs.

KU receiving duo faces tougher foe in Colorado - Kansas City Star

Well, it appears that Kansas wide receivers Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier don’t deserve all the credit for their big day Saturday against Iowa State. Note to Big 12 defensive coordinators: Don’t do what the Cyclones did. "Iowa State came in and played their base defense and didn’t double-team either one of us," Briscoe said.

No. 17 Kansas at Colorado | Kansas Jayhawks | Wichita Eagle
Gotta hope for this right:

3. The Buffaloes have lost three straight to KU. They have never lost four straight.

Brooks: Burney Eyes Texas Loss, Future - CUBuffs.com
The Andre Simmons watch continues:

THE ANDRE WATCH: It's Week 6 . . . anybody seen Andre Simmons? Not to worry. Simmons believes he's about ready to be seen - perhaps soon. "As the games go by, I gain more confidence with the playbook and the quarterback," he said. "Day by day, I'm getting more momentum and getting more involved . . . hopefully, I can be more productive. Sooner or later everything will fall in place."

Buffs letting Stewart run free - The Longmont Times-Call

Darian Hagan said Rodney Stewart received more carries than Darrell Scott last week against Texas because Rodney was "so damn hot." Now I agree that Rodney Stewart is probably our best back right now but if "so damn hot" equates to 40 yards on 21 carries, then well, we can expect to be the 112th ranked rushing team this year.

The plan last Saturday at Texas, said Colorado running back coach Darian Hagan, was to get more carries for Darrell Scott. It didn’t happen. Why? "Speedy (Rodney Stewart) starts out the game and he gets so damn hot," Hagan said. "And then Texas clogs up the box and Speedy can find those holes. He’s so small that guys are missing him and they overrun him and he can find the back door."

CU’s Smith welcomes spotlight at corner - The Longmont Times-Call
CB Jimmy Smith will have his hands full on Saturday trying to contain Jayhawk receivers Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier.

Phil Steele - 2009 Big 12 Mid Season All Conference Teams
Phil Steele named his mid season All Conference team for the Big 12. WR Scotty McKnight, TE Riar Geer and CB Cha'pelle Brown were named to the second team. Nate Solder and Jeff Smart were put on the third team.

Big 12 predictions, Week 7 - Big 12 - ESPN

Kansas 31, Colorado 28: The Jayhawks showed a leaky defense last week against Iowa State and could get a sterner test from the Buffaloes than you might expect. The Jayhawks have the conference’s foremost pitch-and-catch trio in Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. And their offense could be even more potent and balanced if and when Jake Sharp returns to the lineup. New Colorado starting quarterback Tyler Hansen will try to pump some life into a struggling lineup that was limited to 127 yards last week by Texas. The Buffaloes should find things a little smoother against the Jayhawks, who have allowed an average of 32 points in their last two games.

Kansas' Reesing has always been a little big man against CU - The Denver Post

CU Buffs sophomore becoming veteran on CU`s D-line - Colorado Daily
Kyle Ringo has a story on DL Curtis Cunningham, who has been a solid performer for the Buffs this year.

CU Men's Basketball Media Day Quotes - CUBuffs.com
Quotes from Colorado head coach Jeff Bzdelik and players from media days. Great details from coach Bzdelik on the newcomers in his quotes. I am very excited for Alec Burks and Marcus Relphorde.

Bzdelik says all CU hoop newcomers to contribute | All Things Colorado Sports

Alec Burks, 6-6 freshman guard, Grandview (Mo.) HS – "Alec grew a couple of inches since we signed him. He’s very long, very athletic. He’s talented. Extremely talented. He can go make a play in a variety of ways. As soon as he understands the physicalness and intensity level at which this game is played at this level, I’ll go out on the limb to say this … he has a chance to be really special."

Brooks: Buffs Hope Relphorde Can Provide 'Wow' Factor - CUBuffs.com

In fact, when Bzdelik thumbed down his list of Buffaloes newcomers, he led off with the 6-foot-7 Relphorde and called him "the one I expect the most out of." Meantime, Relphorde was seated in the back of the room, soaking in the high expectations. And he was fine with it. "It's not really putting me on the spot," he said, grinning. "A lot of the things he said up there, he's told me (privately). I know he has high expectations for me, and I welcome that. I mean, I feel like setting the bar high is good, because I have high expectations for myself as well."

CU Buffs freshman Hornbuckle prefers Bzdelik`s offense - Boulder Daily Camera

"Keegan is a smart kid. He definitely did his homework before he committed to Colorado," Terry Kelly, Hornbuckle`s high school coach, told the Los Angeles Times last fall. "In reality, the system is perfect for him. He had plenty of options, but I think he made the right choice. ... "We are talking about a kid who will have the opportunity to play right away, in a very tough conference, no less. He`s not going to shy away from competition at the next level. He can step in and make an impact, there`s no question about it."

Anatomy of Stagnation: Settling For Field Goals, Again

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:12:59 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

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The Big Picture

Two weeks ago, it seemed like over analysis to focus on two stalled drives hidden within the trashing of UTEP. The Longhorns led the nation by converting each of their opportunities inside the red zone. Problem was, and is, that the Texas coaching staff has no idea how to run the football in the red zone, leading to using the WildHorn there against UTEP, with poor results even though Mack Brown admitted that the plays were set up for failure. In fact, the whole offense inside the red zone is still searching for an identity. Which running back should play? Should it be Cody Johnson, who has the strength to pick up some yardage after contact? Should EBS play? Can the Longhorns throw the ball effectively with EBS in the game?

Against Colorado, the Longhorns experienced the same problems, as the first two drives of the game stalled deep on Colorado territory and the Buffaloes blocked the kick on the second drive, destroying red zone perfection for Texas on the season. What's going on here?

First Drive -- The Context

Shockingly and unbelievably, Colorado marched down the field on their first drive, going 66 yards and converting 3rd and 21 with a 25-yard touchdown pass from rag-armed Cody Hawkins to tight end Patrick Devenny. Ask Hawkins to throw the ball any further and his arm might fall off. In fact, judging by the velocity, or complete lack thereof, on the throw that Earl Thomas took to the house and that lofted throw to Devenny might have sapped lil Hawk's arm strength for the night. Note the sarcasm.

Attempting to respond, the Longhorns moved the ball methodically down the field as McCoy targeted Shipley three times for 47 yards. The drive even included Vondrell McGee's longest run of the night -- five yards on his first carry. The jumbo package took two plays to pick up two yards, but eventually got the job done and the beautiful 3rd and 12 throw by McCoy down the sideline to Shipley moved the Longhorns to the Colorado 19 yardline.

1st and 10 CU 19

The Longhorns line up in the WildHorn formation for the first time on the evening, but using Vondrell McGee as the running back for the first time:

Notice that the linebackers are all shaded over to the short side of the field. Even though the Longhorns haven't shown this specific variation of the WildHorn, the defenders seem to suspect something or flat out aren't concerned about McGee's speed to the outside.

Nor should they be, as the play will show. Texas runs a variation of the power play that is a staple of the Wildcat series, but instead of even faking the handoff with McGee, Davis uses him as the lead blocker on the play. In other words, instead of forcing the linebackers to move, they simply have to play downhill. Guess what? It doesn't work as well that way, as the outside linebacker on the wide side of the field, who would be responsible for McGee if he comes in motion, slices into the play and hits Chiles at the line of scrimmage. The play picks up three yards, which ties it for the most successful WildHorn play run in the last two games. At least Hall manages to snap the ball well.

2nd and 7 CU

Texas keeps the same 11 personnel grouping on the field, with EBS moving to the strong side of the field:

At the snap of the ball, Colorado run blitzes all three linebackers and the nickel corner lined up over James Kirkendoll in the slot:

The Colorado defensive coordinator guesses correctly, so the Longhorns don't have the numbers to pick up all the blitzers. It might be a zone read play, as McCoy pulls the ball back from McGee, but it's hard to say because it gets blown up so quickly. McCoy loses three yards on the play and takes a nice pop for his efforts, as well.

3rd and 10 CU 19

On third down, Greg Davis sends Dan Buckner onto the field, replacing EBS. He also calls for the relatively-new bunch formation that Texas debuted several weeks ago:

Will he break tendency and not throw a screen pass out of it?

It turns out that he will, but Colorado drops seven into coverage, including the middle linebacker showing blitz at the line of scrimmage in the above shot. Since the camera angle is terrible, it's impossible to know the routes Texas was running on the play except that John Chiles is the outlet receiver standing at the line of scrimmage. McCoy has solid protection, but can't find any of this three primary receivers on the play, though McGee is open in the right flat just as McCoy tucks the ball to run, picking up three yards. Given the quick reaction of Colorado defenders to McCoy's run, they were probably in zone coverage.

Texas settles for a 32-yard field goal from Hunter Lawrence.

Final Totals

Fourteen plays for 64 yards, 5:58 expired. Five of six passing for 50 yards by McCoy, as well as two carries for zero yards. Two rushes for eight yards for McGee, as well as one catch for negative two yards. Two rushes for three yards for Cody Johnson. One rush for three yards by Chiles, as well as one catch for five yards. Three catches for 47 yards for Shipley. One dropped pass by James Kirkendoll. One missed block for Dan Buckner on the failed shovel pass to McGee.

The Verdict

For the most part, the Texas offense responded well to the Colorado touchdown, converting the 3rd and 12 and the fourth down with Cody Johnson running, but stalled inside the red zone once again.

The new WildHorn power play with McGee blocking did not exactly fail, but it did demonstrate that Davis and Mack Brown fail to understand a key concept of the Wildcat series -- the plays must compliment each other. They must be run more than once or twice a game to take advantage of whatever the defense is giving. If the defense goes with the man in motion every time, the power play or the counter is open. If the defense sells out to stop the power play, the stealer is open to the outside. So simple a caveman can do it. But apparently not Greg Davis.

On the play, the outside was open, but McGee doesn't have the speed to exploit it, a fact the Colorado defense took advantage of to shade all three linebacker towards the short side of the field. In the true Wildcat series, the next play would be the stealer and it would probably work, even with McGee.

If the Longhorns insist on keeping McCoy and two other receivers on the field in the WildHorn, there is no ability to use an h-back in the formation as a lead blocker. Instead of accepting that fact or taking a wide receiver off the field, Davis instead chose to use the running back as a lead blocker. Once again, the problem there is that the defense doesn't have to worry at all about anything going outside to the wide side of the field. Misdirection is quite possibly the key to the Wildcat series and this power play has absolutely none.

The other issue is that Chiles himself said last week that because the defense is keying on him the offense needs to utilize DJ Monroe more to the outside. Instead, Davis put McGee in the game as a lead blocker. Great. The WildHorn could work for the Longhorns but the coaching staff is going about it completely the wrong way.

On the second play featured above, it looked like the Colorado defensive coordinator had read Davis' offensive script before the game, run blitzing into a running play. However, responsbility for the failed play rests on McCoy, who did not check out of it when he saw the blitz. With the nickel corner blitzing, the safety is seven yards off of Kirkendoll, giving McCoy an easy hot read if he checks the play at the line of scrimmage. Even if Colorado then switches out of their blitz, at least the play has a chance.

The third play illustrates several things. First of all, the Longhorns have struggled this season against zone defenses, possibly because the receivers didn't get a lot of game reps last season finding holes in the zone. Secondly, McCoy has not done as good of a job this season of finding his running backs out of the backfield, perhaps as a result of having less trust for McGee and Newton than McCoy had with Chris Ogbonnaya. Finally, the zone defenses help limit McCoy's scrambling ability because the defenders don't have their backs turned to the quarterback. Whatever the case, the Longhorns need to figure it out because defenses are going to continue playing zone defense until McCoy and company make them pay.

Second Drive -- The Context

After the poor start to the game, the Texas defense responded by forcing a three and out on Colorado's second possession. Offensively, the Longhorns dinked and dunked their way down the field to once again get inside the red zone against a statistically-poor Colorado defense. Following his eight yards on two carries on the first drive, McGee struggled to find any room behind the Texas offensive line, picking up three yards on three carries. A second offsides penalty on the drive against Colorado on 3rd and 2 puts Texas inside the CU 10 yardline.

1st and Goal CU 8

Greg Davis calls in for 11 personnel on first down, with Cody Johnson staying in the game after entering the play before to run the ball on third down. Notice EBS on the short side of the field, indicating to me pre snap that the Longhorns are going to run the sorta counter to the left, about the only running play that the coaching staff uses with Johnson:

Unbelievably, it is indeed a counter play behind the left side of the line, which gets good blocks on the play. On the other side, Kyle Hix decides to take out the knees of defensive end Nick Kasa given the problems the Longhorns have had during the game of unblocked players on the backside of plays making tackles. Michael Huey comes through the hole and seemingly has trouble deciding which of the two linebackers to block and barely gets a piece of the playside linebacker as they combine to make the stop, limiting Johnson to a three-yard gain.

2nd and Goal CU 5

Desperately seeking solutions, Davis calls for an empty set with Fozzy Whittacker entering the game at the bottom of the screen with Dan Buckner and James Kirkendoll on the wide side of the field and John Chiles and Jordan Shipley on the short side:

Notice that Colorado is in man-to-man press coverage against all the receivers except for Whittacker, who is played to take away the inside release. The Buffaloes have only one linebacker and one safety in the middle of the field.

The man coverage takes away any quick throws for McCoy and a stunt by the strongside defensive end Marquez Herrod beats the right tackle Hix and eventually results in a sack and a loss of eight yards. It looked like there was some miscommunication between Hix and Huey because Huey left his man to try to slow down Herrod, allowing his original assignment, defensive tackle Curtis Cunningham, to get to McCoy at roughly the same time as Herrod.

3rd and Goal CU 13

The Longhorns stay with the same personnel grouping, but put Whittaker in the backfield and once again use the bunch formation to the bottom of the screen.

Judging by the pass, Kirkendoll was supposed to run an option route, going inside if the defender shades him outside and going outside if the defender shades him inside. Kirkendoll goes inside, while McCoy throws the ball outside, leading to an incompletion.

4th and Goal CU 13

The punt team comes onto the field to attempt the field goal. Notice that the kick is from the left hash, meaning that Lawrence has to angle the kick to the right, making Ahmard Howard's protection on the right side of the line more important than if the ball were in the middle of the field or on the right hash.

Howard has a decision to make. Should he help Alex Okafor with the man coming across his right shoulder or should he block the man coming to the outside? Given the position of ball, Howard needs to block the outside man because the placement of the ball means the kick will be directed into the edge rusher:

Howard makes the wrong decision and the edge rusher blocks the kick, costing the Longhorns three points.

Final Totals

Thirteen plays for 46 yards, 5:09 expired. Five of six passing for 28 yards and two carries for one yard by McCoy. Two catches for 13 yards by Shipley. Two catches for 11 yards by Chiles. One catch for five yards by Dan Buckner. Three carries for one yard by McGee. One carry for three yards by Johnson. Two offsides penalties for 10 yards by Colorado. One miscommunication between Kirkendoll and McCoy. One poor decision in field goal protection by Ahmard Howard.

The Verdict

Once again, the Longhorns move the ball well before stalling close to the goalline. Once again, the drive stalls following a similar pattern -- a run for three yards, a terrible play resulting in a loss, and then McCoy unable to connect with a receiver.

The counter play to Johnson works reasonably well, but the problem is that Hix had to stay home blocking the defensive end because of the problems with backside players making tackles. The point of the counter play is that it uses misdirection to get the defense flowing in the wrong direction because of the counter step. Well, as well documented in these parts, there is no counter step. Hix staying at home left a linebacker unblocked and Huey did a poor job of blocking the other linebacker, giving Johnson little to no chance of picking up any more yards than he did.

On the second play, the right side of the Texas line failed to pick up the stunt by the defensive end, a tactic they will see often this season if it continues to work for opponents. Given the state of the running game, the Longhorns will have to throw the ball upwards of 35 times to beat Oklahoma and correctly this problem will be necessary to sustain drives, because even one sack will almost certainly derail a drive.

The third play illustrates the trust issues that McCoy seems to have with his receivers other than Buckner and Shipley. Mccoy must throw the ball on the option route before the receiver makes the break, so he has to trust that the receiver will make the same read. Kirkendoll did not and the play should have resulted in a touchdown. Throughout the season, McCoy and Kirkendoll have struggled to connect close to the goalline. Until a third receiver steps up and earns the trust of McCoy, the Texas offense will continue to struggle scoring touchdowns. On top of that, Kirkendoll's poor read was representative of a bad game that saw him drop a pass, get called for holding, and generally fail completely in the blocking game. What happened to the step forward he was supposed to take after making that critical catch against Ohio State?

Final Thoughts

The offense is clearly casting about relatively aimlessly trying to find solutions for the problems punching the ball into the end zone. In the last two games, nothing has worked well, not the WildHorn, not Cody Johnson running, not spreading the field. Eventually, settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns will prove to be a major issue and the main hope is that Davis finds something that works. The bad news is that the Longhorns are now entering the toughest part of their schedule and don't have any more time to experiment against overmatched teams. They will have to figure it out on fly.

Defense Sparks Buffs, Get First Win of 2009

irish1611 — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 16:31:11 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado tailback Rodney Stewart, center, is congratulated after his touchdown run by fullback Jake Behrens, left, and tight end Riar Geer during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Wyoming in Boulder, Colo., on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Needing a win more than ever, the Colorado Buffaloes delivered. It is one we should definitely enjoy, it has been a turmoil filled start and finally being able to celebrate a Buffs' win wherever you were watching the game was a relief. It wasn't the prettiest of victories but there are certainly a few takeaways from this game that hopefully continue to improve as the year goes on.

The defense for the most part played fantastic. You must first start with the energy level that the team displayed in the early going. Players were ready to go and played with little apprehension, something we saw the last two weeks that made the defense look slow and confused. Clearly, the goal today was bring pressure from the linebacker spot. The Buffs also made a very strategic move to put CB Ben Burney at the safety spot, instantly adding some experience and more leadership to the team while keeping two of their best players on the field in CB Cha'pelle Brown and CB Jimmy Smith. Defensive coordinator Ron Collins said that the eleven best players will play this offseason and getting more experience back in the safety spot was a step in that direction. Burney looked like another linebacker out there as he was often around the ball, something we can't say about the performance of the safety position the last few weeks.

LB B.J. Beatty finally played in a role that we expected him to be in this year as a replacement for last year's sack leader LB Brad Jones. One of the keys to the game was playing in the Wyoming backfield and Beatty led the charge, sacking the quarterback twice and causing much more havoc as a rush end than anyone has all year. Finding a constant pressure guy is important going forward and for the Buffs to be successful for remainder of the season, B.J. Beatty will have to continue to play as he did today. Defensive linemen Marquez Herrod and Curtis Cunningham also played well. Herrod had four tackles and a sack while Cunningham was second on the team in tackles with six and also had a sack. Whenever their was push in the backfield, numbers 90 and 68 were usually the instigators. Also, great to see LB Jon Major get in and make some plays on the defense. After battling back from an injury a year ago, Major had four tackles.

In total, Colorado's defense held the Dave Christensen-led offense to a feeble 3.2 yards a play, 0-2 on fourth down, 4 - 18 on third down, 24 minutes of possession, 13 first downs and only 230 total yards. That's a big improvement over the week before as Toledo gained 624 yards on the ground and averaged 9.9 per play. Of course, this was a bad offense in Wyoming that hasn't scored a touchdown since third quarter of the Weber State game, which was a full two games and a quarter ago. Wyoming has little in terms of playmakers but considering the defense's play the first two weeks, credit must be given to Ron Collins and the defensive staff for dialing up a good game plan that was successful. Collins will still need to get this unit to improve as the schedule now gets exponentially tougher with West Virginia, Texas and Kansas all down the pipeline. Not to scare Buff fans but those three teams are ranked 12th, 13th and 3rd in the nation in total offense, all averaging over 482 yards of total offense. The real test for this defense will start against West Virginia.

But Saturday was a start for the defense. Great move to get Burney on the field and establishing some confidence in Beatty to get things done in the opponents backfield. The Buffs didn't allow the big play and the corner back play looked much more settled. Again, it was against the 99th ranked offense but we will take it.

As for the offense, it is still very much a work in progress. On a positive note, the return of RB Rodney Stewart, although not entirely healthy, proved beneficial. Although only averaging 4.0 yards a carry, Stewart was a workhorse scoring twice.

The offense also did it's job, scoring first just one minute and thirty seconds into the game, giving the Buffs their first lead of the year and allowing the defense to play with the lead, something that hasn't happened this year. The offense held the ball for over 35 minutes by running the ball 45 times. WR Scotty McKnight continues to be the the main target that Cody Hawkins looks for and the main target offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau works around. McKnight caught five balls for 77 yards, good for 15.4 per reception. Through the first three games of the year, McKnight already has 20 catches for 227 yards. If he continues on this pace, McKnight will have an 80 catch year which will destroy his 46 catch total of a year ago.

The Buffs only allowed one sack and just one turnover, improvements over the first two games.

But this offense still lacks any threat of explosiveness. Fast and atheltic defenses, which the Buffs will be playing in the immediate future, are going to have a field day if Colorado cannot loosen up the defense with some ability to go down field. WR Markques Simas supposedly started but rarely received a look in the passing game. WR Andre Simmons was no where to be found as was WR Anthony Wright. The only receiver to have a double-digit yards/catch average yesterday was McKnight. In a game that the Buffs had a comfortable lead early, I was disappointed that the Buffs didn't try to incorporate Simas, Simmons and Wright in the offense more. It is time to see what these players will do on the field. A slant route, a fade route, a bubble screen...anything to get them in the rhythm of the offense.

Colorado has three receivers in Simas, Simmons and Wright that can have the playmaking potential that is much needed for the rest of the year. The Buffs coaching staff has 12 days before they head to Morgantown to play West Virginia. The offense needs a similar make over like defense showed against Wyoming and that change is a commitment to becoming an offense that can stretch the field and add a little imagination to a stagnant unit.

The defense showed some explosiveness, the offense needs to follow suit for the Buffs to have any success with the remainder of the schedule. Colorado needs more consistency from Cody Hawkins, he needs to capitalize and make a few passes downfield that will change the game. Still too many mental lapses and missed opportunities. The Buffs' offense needs it's players to make plays and it's coaches to put them in a position to be successful.

At this point, I speak for most Buff fans in that a win is a win and we will take it any way. This team still has a lot of issues but let's enjoy this one for the time being.

Colorado State Offensive Preview

irish1611 — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 15:06:09 -0000

The matchup between Colorado Buffaloes' corner Jimmy Smith and Colorado State's receiver Rashaun Greer should be fun to watch.

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What you need to know about the Rams' Offense:

You have heard it a hundred times by now; the Colorado St. Rams have the most experienced offensive line in college football. Yes, 129 total starts between the five players up front. Last season, the Buffs were able to get to then senior quarterback Billy Farris five times and held the Rams to a net 71 yards rushing. Colorado hopes to have the same sort of success against the most experienced offensive line as once again the Rams try to break another new quarterback in Grant Stucker. OG Shelley Smith and C Tim Walter are the two studs on the line, but Smith is questionable for the game Sunday due to a high ankle sprain. Walter has the ability to be the top center in Mountain West and is the anchor of the line.

Walter and Smith, if healthy, will be in charge of protecting Grant Stucker, the 6-2, 207-pound senior, saw little action last year completing just 3-of-5 passes for 22 yards. Stucker is a decent athlete who will certainly be more mobile than Billy Farris was a year ago but most have said Farris is the better pure passer. Head coach Steve Fairchild was not afraid to voice his displeasure at the quarterback position this offseason as Stucker or Jon Eastman failed to grab the reins of the position, with Stucker almost winning by default due to injuries elsewhere. Stucker will be at a disadvantage compared to the Farris last year as the Rams will have to replace two stalwart running backs in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell. John Mosure, who rushed for 122 yards last season will get the start. Mosure, 5-10, 200-pounds, will add a little speed to the Rams backfield but it is hard to be convinced with the loss of Farris, Bell and Johnson that this year's backfield will be better than last year's.

continue reading the preview after the jump...

The real excitement for the Rams comes from the wide receiver spots as they have two of the better ones in the Mountain West conference. Rashaun Greer, a 6-1, 203 pounder senior, emerged last year after the receivers were labeled as the weak spot on the offense. Greer caught 63 passes for a team leading 1,114 yards and averaging an impressive 17 yards a reception. He only scored three times, though, something that Steve Fairchild would like to see amplified. Greer had a nice coming out party against Colorado last season, hauling in 8 for 80 yards. Dion Morton rounds out the dynamic duo at the receiver spot. Morton, a 5-10, 163-pound senior, was second on the team with 51 catches for 859 yards and a record-setting ten touchdowns. He is also dangerous in the return game, something that Buffs need to be aware of as they try to buck the trend of last year's special teams play.

Colorado State does lose some fire power on the edge in tight end Kory Sperry. Although Sperry was keyed on last season by the Buffs and had little impact on the game, he still had an impressive senior season before departing for the NFL. Colorado fans will be glad not to see him or Gartrell Johnson on the field this year. Taking over for the athletic Sperry will be Eric Peitz, a 6-5, 250-pound junior who played two years ago Sperry went down with a torn ACL. Peitz is more known for his blocking ability rather than his playmaking, catching only 5 passes for 29 yards in 2008. Sperry's 492 yards and six touchdowns will be difficult to replace this season as will his presence in the middle of the field.

Stat To Know About:

Other than the offensive line's 129 total starts, the Rams lose some firepower off of their 7-6 team from a year ago...some might not be the right way to put it. Colorado State has to replace 91% of its passing yards and 100% of its passing touchdowns in Billy Farris. They lose 74.3% of their rushing attempts, 88.1% of their rushing yards and 72.2% of their rushing touchdowns with the departure of Kyle Bell and Gartrell Johnson. The loss of receiving statistics is only about 30% between Sperry, Johnson and Bell but still is significant considering safeties had to stay home to cover Sperry instead of being able to provide strong over the top help for corners covering Morton and Greer. With Peitz now taking over at tight end, I expect the Buffs to key much more on the receivers and less on Sperry.

The Best Matchup:

If you are at the game, make sure you keep an eye on the Buffs' corners against the Rams' receivers. The matchup of CB Jimmy Smith against WR Rashaun Greer will be worth the price of admission as 6'3" 200 corner will have the forum to show off his skills against a talented receiver. And don't forget about the little guys on the other side who are no slouches in their own right. CB Cha'pelle Brown, an all conference performer a year ago, will go up against the Rams touchdown leader from a year ago in Dion Morton. These matchups should provide great theater all day long. Smith, Brown, Jalil Brown and Ben Burney better be ready as these will be two of the better receivers the Buffs will face all year.

Matchup Buff Fans Should be Worried About:

Clearly it is in the trenches. This group of CSU linemen have been through a lot together and they should be the rock of the offense. On the other side of the ball, the Buffs have lost most of their experience upfront from a year ago replacing three senior starters with sophomore Curtis Cunningham, redshirt freshman Will Perciak and sophomore Lagrone Shields. If the Rams can get a solid running game going, they could raise some issues for the Buffs this Sunday. I expect Colorado defensive coordinator Ron Collins to be ready to make many in game adjustments based on how the battle in the trenches goes. The good thing for the Buffs is the cornerbacks should be able to hold their own, allowing more in the box to stop the run and get after Stucker. But if things start going wrong for the Buffs, look to this matchup as the reason.

What Remains to Be Seen:

The obvious answer is Grant Stucker. How he plays in his first real collegiate game on the road in a nationally televised spot will get most of the attention. No doubt he has some talent at receiver but Colorado matches up extremely well there. The biggest question in my eyes is can the defensive line of the Buffs keep the Colorado St. line occupied enough to let the deep group of linebackers run rampant. Colorado doesn't have that proven huge space filler unless it is true freshman Nate Bonsu and who knows if he is "college ready." How quick do the Buffs switch from the 4 - 3 to the 3 - 4 will also be something to watch.

If Colorado gets any play out of the front four, the Rams are not going to have much success against the Colorado defense.