SB Nation - Ryan Dannewitz

Sunday Buff Bites - 13 Days Until This Nightmare Is Over...Hopefully

irish1611 — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:36:53 -0000

Woelk: Decision on Hawkins` future must come soon - Buffzone

It means that very soon, athletic director Mike Bohn and chancellor Phil DiStefano must come to a decision. Clearly, the program is nowhere close to where Bohn envisioned it being when he hired Hawkins. When Bohn managed to land one of the nation`s hottest young coaching prospects in December of 2005, he certainly never thought he`d be contemplating another change just four years later. Now such a decision is a distinct possibility. Today, I`m still not ready to say a change would be in the best interest of the program and the university. But, whatever decision is reached, it must be reached soon. After Saturday`s effort at Iowa State, waiting for the outcome of the last two games makes absolutely no sense. Bohn and DiStefano must sit down as soon as possible and examine the situation from every angle. Economics. Possible fallout from all sides. Recruiting. Next year`s schedule. Returning players. Then make a decision and move on. Let Hawkins know whether he`ll be here next year or not. If he`s going to be the head coach, make it known so he can begin to reassure recruits, contemplate staff changes and move on with business. If not, give him and his staff the opportunity to assess their futures. But whatever the decision, make it soon. Waiting will only increase the questions hanging over the program while doing nothing in terms of moving forward. Simply, a quick resolution is the only sensible solution.

Bowl ineligibility befalls Buffs - The Denver Post

Hawkins' problem is, in his fourth year, his team is going in the opposite direction of two rebuilding programs that beat him with first-year coaches. Paul Rhoads' Cyclones (6-5, 3-4) joined Kansas State in downing the Buffs at home. This time the nearly packed house of 43,208 stormed the field, celebrating bowl eligibility a year after going 2-10. Once again, offensive ineptitude on the road crippled Colorado. CU scored one touchdown against the second- worst defense in the league. That doubled its number of TDs in the past 10 quarters on the road to two.

CU Buffs bowl hopes end in another road wreck - Boulder Daily Camera

The signs are all there and they`re pointing toward a coaching change at Colorado. The football team isn`t playing well when it desperately needs to. Athletic director Mike Bohn, who just three months ago robustly defended head coach Dan Hawkins, turned away requests for comment after another loss Saturday.

Buffs lose 17-10 at Iowa State - The Denver Post

Lacking a killer instinct, Colorado (3-7, 2-4 Big 12) produced just three points — total — out of four possession inside the ISU 10-yard line, committed costly, careless penalties and set up Iowa State's third-quarter touchdown with a turnover. "We went from being one of the better teams in the red zone in the country to one of the worst," Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said.

Same old story for Buffs - The Longmont Times-Call

Hawkins, repeating another familiar line, said it just came down to a couple of plays. "Particularly with this group of guys, when you have a big play against you, there’s a huge momentum thing going on," Hawkins said. "We just have to be able to counter that a little bit better."

CU vs. Iowa State Game Quotes
Momentum thing, rhythm thing, confidence thing...blah, blah, blah, blah

On poor passing game
"On the first drive we had a couple of drops. You talk about that rhythm thing and that confidence thing and that momentum thing. A couple of drops on the first drive took us out of rhythm."

The Longmont Times-Call

From CU offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau: "The frustrating part is the turnovers and the penalties. We’re not getting outschemed. We know what they’re doing. If we eliminate turnovers and penalties, this is a completely different ball club." CU committed 11 penalties and three turnovers Saturday. CU was also 2-for-14 on third down conversions.

Bruising running game paves way for OSU - Big 12 Blog - ESPN
The Colorado Buffaloes next opponent, Oklahoma State, had a good win last night against Texas Tech but lost their starting quarterback in the process. Zac Robinson was hit hard late in the game and supposedly has a concussion.

One negative coming out of the game was an apparent concussion sustained by OSU quarterback Zac Robinson on a devastating hit by Tech cornerback Jamar Wall. With the Cowboys playing Thursday night against Colorado, it might be asking a lot for Robinson to return to action that soon. And Robinson was the key before his injury. He piled up a team-high 97 yards. Keith Toston added 78 and Kendall Hunter had his most impressive performance since returning from his foot injury with 70 tough yards on 17 carries.

Two key fumbles put Stewart in tough situation - The Denver Post

Stewart lost two fumbles, both coming at crucial times in the second half. His first turnover, on the Colorado 33-yard line, occurred early in the third quarter. That set up Iowa State's final touchdown and, ultimately, the Cyclones' winning score. The second turnover came at the end of a 7-yard run to the ISU 8 on a hit by safety David Sims, ending a CU threat early in the fourth quarter.

Givens' strange season takes another turn - The Longmont Times-Call

The strange season Bryce Givens is enduring in his redshirt freshman year at Colorado took another twist during Saturday’s 17-10 loss at Iowa State. Givens, making his first start Saturday since the Big 12 opener at Texas, was called for a personal foul during the third quarter for hitting an Iowa State pass rusher in the face as quarterback Tyler Hansen scrambled to the Cyclones’ 2 on first-and-goal. After Givens turned and said something to referee Tom Walker, Walker picked his flag up off the ground and tossed it high into the air to call a penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct. The penalties gave CU a first-and-goal at the 39. The drive ended when kicker Aric Goodman missed from 42 yards. Coaches pulled Givens from the game and he did not return. Ryan Dannewitz took his place at right tackle.

ISU Football: Cyclones beat Colorado, become bowl eligible - The Des Moines Register

They reached bowl eligibility for the first time since 2005 after a 17-10 win against Colorado before a boisterous 43,208 who held breaths as the Buffaloes tossed the ball around backwards on the final play before finally ending 69 yards from the end zone.

Go Cyclones - ISU bowl eligible after Colorado win

Iowa State beats Colorado 17-10 and Cyclones become bowl eligible - KansasCity.com

For some programs, reaching bowl eligibility is little more than a footnote. It’s a much bigger deal for Iowa State. Picked to finish last in the Big 12 North, the Cyclones can at least dream of their first bowl bid since 2005 after beating Colorado 17-10 on Saturday for their sixth win.

CU players say they`ll play for pride - Boulder Daily Camera

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:00:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Marquez Herrod: part of a surprisingly successful CU d-line.

Browse more photos »

Last year at this time, Missouri was coming off of a tough loss to OSU and a blowout loss to Texas, and they turned their season around with a ridiculously easy 58-0 win over Colorado. This season, a younger, hobbled, even-more-reeling Mizzou team makes the trip to Boulder, hungry for even a 1-point win, much less a 58-pointer. Will they get the job done?

Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Because whatever your inclinations, the stats below have something to feed them. An optimist looks at the matchups below and sees a Missouri team with significant defensive advantages, a Colorado team with no major skill-position threat, run-blocking advantages for both the Mizzou offensive and defensive lines, and such a pronounced speed advantage in the last two years that it simply cannot have all gone away now that Jeremy Maclin is catching passes from Donovan McNabb.

If you're a pessimist, however, you've got plenty of ammo as well. You've got an immobile, inaccurate quarterback facing a solid pass rush (and a backup who has not inspired a boatload of confidence), a Mizzou secondary that suffered flashback-inducing communication breakdowns a week ago, and a rushing offense that has still underachieved significantly this season. (Oh, and of course TERRIBLE COACHING PINKEL'S TOO STUBBORN OUR PASS COVERAGE IS TOO SOFT YOST AND STECKEL SUCK!!!!!1!!!!!!!!! Can't forget that.) The projections for this game have gotten tighter as Mizzou has begun to struggle, but let's be honest--without knowing how Gabbert's ankle will respond to another week of treatment, and how such a young team (did you see where Mizzou now has 36 freshmen and sophs on the two-deep????) will respond to a three-game losing streak, projections here are rather worthless. Not that that's going to stop me from diving ahead, of course...

Offense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

In the last three years against Missouri, Colorado has scored a total of 23 points. After a decent 373-yard output in 2006, the Buffs have not managed even 200 yards in either of the past two meetings. Missouri's defense is actually quite a bit better statistically than in 2008, while Colorado's offense has only incrementally improved. Plus, Missouri holds the ratings advantage in a vast majority of major "+" categories.

Colorado Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	CU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (92)	112.4 (31)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	98.9 (70)	104.6 (43)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	78.2 (103)	124.0 (30)

Rushing S&P+	121.5 (25)	101.9 (64)
Passing S&P+	72.5 (108)	120.8 (25)

Standard Downs S&P+	95.4 (83)	114.1 (27)
Passing Downs S&P+	94.3 (85)	117.4 (32)

Red Zone S&P+	106.5 (60)	100.0 (68)

Q1 S&P+	105.5 (69)	96.1 (73)
Q2 S&P+	107.1 (57)	136.1 (18)
Q3 S&P+	83.0 (103)	120.9 (24)
Q4 S&P+	91.8 (93)	113.9 (40)

1st Down S&P+	95.8 (82)	110.9 (42)
2nd Down S&P+	89.9 (97)	114.1 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	98.3 (78)	115.5 (33)

Line Yards+	126.8 (5)	99.5 (64)
Close Sack Rate+	77.3 (97)	89.2 (75)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	61.8 (107) / 108.4 (61)	78.4 (87) / 96.0 (70)

When Colorado Has the Ball...
Colorado Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Colorado Passing	Big Advantage: Missouri
Best Time for Colorado:	1st Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	Anything after 1st Quarter

Analysis after the jump.

We'll once again start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+, Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs Sack Rate+

And for Colorado...

Rushing S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1 S&P+
Line Yards+
Passing Downs S&P+

Obviously Missouri has significant advantages in most categories, but you do see where Colorado has a sliver of opportunity. They will likely try to establish the run in the first quarter, and even though Missouri has been improving quite a bit against the run, CU does still have the overall advantage there. If Rodney Stewart gets going and Missouri has to focus a bit more on the run, then CU might be able to exploit a Missouri pass defense that might or might not now be shaky. Until the Texas game, Missouri had been playing great pass defense--more than good enough to completely shut CU down. But some breakdowns against the Longhorns have caused some serious consternation, and until we see that everything's alright--that the sudden miscommunication is alleviated, that Carl Gettis' head is on straight--we don't know for sure that it will be.

Though Colorado does obviously have a road map to success, you could see things pretty quickly turn in Missouri's favor if Stewart isn't finding running lanes and Colorado isn't moving the ball early. The per-quarter advantage quickly turns in Mizzou's favor after the first 15 minutes, when CU's scripted plays have likely run their course and the game turns to adjustments, counters to counters, and athleticism. If Mizzou leads after Q1, they are in very good shape. As with Blaine Gabbert's ankle, we should pretty quickly be able to discern how the secondary is going to play, and if Missouri's speed advantage is going to be enough to shut Colorado down for the fourth straight year.

Quarterback

If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Cody Hawkins: 114-for-228 passing (50.0%), 1,208 yards (5.3 per pass), 9 TD, 11 INT
Tyler Hansen: 24-for-44 passing (54.5%), 281 yards (6.4 per pass), 1 TD, 1 INT

Last year, CU came to Columbia with uncertainty at quarterback. Cody Hawkins simply wasn't performing well at all, and Dan Hawkins tore the redshirt off of Tyler Hansen to provide some competition. This year...almost exactly the same story. Hawkins has been mostly awful once again, and after an early decision to redshirt Hansen, Dan Hawkins decided against it, bringing Don't Call Me Taylor into the Texas game and starting him against Kansas.

Hansen provided enough of a change in style that it gave CU a momentary boost. The Buffs managed just 322 yards of offense against Kansas in Hansen's first start, but they took advantage of opportunities (twice, KU handed them the ball deep in their own territory) and came away with a win. Predictably, though, the Hansen magic quickly wore off, just like it did last year. CU gained just 244 yards against K-State, with Hansen and Hawkins combining to go 17-for-37 for 184 yards (a disgusting 5.0 per pass), 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 4 sacks. Ouch.

(And that's right, Hansen's redshirt came off halfway through the season, but he's still only splitting time with Cody Hawkins.)

Hansen is elusive enough that he really might be a better option than Nolte-Hawkins (I'm not completely sure I'm not a better option than Hawkins). He is not necessarily a threat to gain a bunch of yards on the ground (he ripped off a 20-yarder against KU, but that's it), but he is constantly escaping the pocket and trying to buy time for his receivers. Of course, his receivers are terrible, so that doesn't really work. But that's not his fault.

Running Back

Beyond Darrell Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Rodney Stewart: 120 carries, 467 yards (3.9/carry), 6 TD; 5 catches, 28 yards (5.6/catch)
Demetrius Sumler: 29 carries, 114 yards (3.9/carry); 10 catches, 58 yards (5.8/catch)
Darrell Scott: 23 carries, 95 yards (4.1/carry), 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards (8.8/catch)

For the second straight year, Scott has spent a majority of the season either dinged up or out. He had arthroscopic surgery on his knee early last week and is out for another week or two. Not that his game log was fear-inducing in the first place, of course.

The main threat in the backfield, I guess, is Rodney Stewart. Stewart is once again riding a nice performance against West Virginia (21 carries, 105 yards) to prop up his numbers. In conference play, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry (197 yards on 61 carries), and while CU's overall rushing stats are better than last year (and therefore so are Stewart's), I want to see him do something against a fast front seven before I claim to be scared of him in any way, shape or form. He is a bit of a workhorse--until his 16-carry performance against K-State last week, he had gone over 20 carries for four straight games. Durability is a virtue, especially when you're missing your supposedly most explosive RB option (Scott), but Stewart's got to show me he can run on Missouri's defense before I believe it (last year against Mizzou: 6 carries, 9 yards). Missouri had some issues last week, but not up front.

Meanwhile, for the second straight year, I'm almost thinking that Demetrius Sumler is CU's best back.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

[A] bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.
Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

Scotty McKnight: 41 catches, 431 yards (10.5/catch), 3 TD
Jason Espinoza: 13 catches, 136 yards (10.5/catch), 1 TD
Markques Simas: 9 catches, 107 yards (11.9/catch), 1 TD
Patrick Devenny: 8 catches, 107 yards (13.4/catch), 2 TD

Riar Geer: 28 catches, 326 yards (11.6/catch), 3 TD
Ryan Deehan: 8 catches, 77 yards (11.8/catch)

I'll say this right now: when Hansen escapes the pocket and attempts to buy time, somebody better find the tight end. Not that either Riar Geer or Ryan Deehan is a threat to take a pass 50 yards or anything, but Geer appears to be the #1 safety valve option, and if somebody is going to bail Hansen (or Hawkins) out on a third-and-long, it's Geer.

Beyond that? Blech. Scotty McKnight is performing admirably in his "possession receiver" role, for seemingly the 13th consecutive year, and being that Missouri let Nebraska's possession receiver (Niles Paul, admittedly better than McKnight) go deep on them once, he's at least a bit of a threat. But McKnight and Geer are the only two players averaging more than two receptions a game. Markques Simas is the homeless man's Malcolm Williams--we've heard hype about him for a while, and he looks good in a uniform, but he just hasn't lived up to the hype yet. That said, all nine of his receptions have come in the last four games, so he's at least working his way into the offense a bit.

Offensive Line

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Possibly the most intriguing unit-vs-unit matchup in Saturday's game comes here--CU's offensive line versus MU's defensive line. I have been very impressed with Mizzou's front seven overall in conference play. Nevada gashed them up the middle, and since then nobody's gashed them at all, aside from a long Roy Helu run after the Nebraska game had been salted away. They have overachieved their rushing rankings the last 2-3 games, and that's an encouraging trend, but the pass rush still needs to improve. They have been all-pros at almost getting to the QB, but that doesn't count for a lot.

Meanwhile, the Colorado OL has seen the same type of encouraging results. Their line yardage figures have been surprisingly great (which brings about even more question marks regarding CU's actual running backs--their line yardage is great, yet they still don't have a back averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry??), but their sack rates leave something to be desired (again, this could be why Hansen is a better QB option...then again, he was sacked four times last week, so nevermind). Strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness. No matter what happens when Missouri has the ball, the game could be determined by who wins this matchup. If Missouri wins it, how exactly is Colorado supposed to score?

---

Defense

Colorado: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Colorado Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	CU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	114.9 (29)	106.9 (55)
Close Success Rate+	120.4 (13)	104.4 (52)
Close PPP+	108.7 (43)	113.4 (56)

Rushing S&P+	117.7 (26)	103.4 (66)
Passing S&P+	110.9 (37)	112.5 (49)

Standard Downs S&P+	117.5 (22)	105.7 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1 (71)	115.9 (46)

Red Zone S&P+	118.3 (27)	74.4 (112)

Q1 S&P+	101.6 (58)	113.1 (58)
Q2 S&P+	120.3 (32)	99.5 (76)
Q3 S&P+	132.0 (15)	119.7 (32)
Q4 S&P+	105.9 (48)	112.4 (37)

1st Down S&P+	112.5 (34)	104.1 (64)
2nd Down S&P+	112.7 (37)	113.5 (49)
3rd Down S&P+	114.7 (36)	117.9 (35)

Line Yards+	106.4 (45)	109.5 (41)
Close Sack Rate+	168.1 (5)	161.7 (20)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	190.5 (4) / 122.1 (38)	189.8 (13) / 118.4 (51)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Colorado
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for Colorado:	2nd Quarter
Best Time for Missouri:	4th Quarter

Missouri's advantages:

Passing Downs S&P+
Q4 S&P+
3rd Down S&P+
Line Yards+

Colorado's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, PPP+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q2, Q3 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+
Close, Standard Downs, Passing Downs Sack Rate+

Pretty jarring to see a Missouri offense with that many disadvantages, huh? This is the world we live in. This is also why Blaine Gabbert's ankle is such a huge wildcard for the rest of this season. If Gabbert can get back to actually throwing accurate passes, then Missouri goes back to having a dangerous offense--most of the statistical regression has come in the last three games, since Donkey Kong Suh's Gabbert roll-up. Before that, Missouri had a Top 30 offense (only Top 30 instead of Top 15 because of the weakness of the non-con defenses, but better than 55th, no?). But as it stands now, CU has a majority of the advantages.

With these numbers, we can see a pretty clear picture for how both teams will succeed, if they succeed, when Missouri has the ball.

If Missouri succeeds, it will be through the improving running game (Mizzou's got the advantage in the trenches) and 3rd down passing. Anecdotally speaking, CU's safeties have been by far their weakest link, and that has led to numerous breakdowns on 3rd downs and Passing Downs. With experienced, fast route-runners like Danario Alexander and Jared Perry running around, they could wreak havoc in these situations if Gabbert can get the ball anywhere close to them.

If Colorado succeeds, you will know it quickly. Derrick Washington is stuffed on the first carry of the game, and Gabbert launches a third-down pass 17 yards over Jared Perry's head. The same thing played out in the second half of the Oklahoma State game and pretty much from the opening snap of the Texas game. If Gabbert's first pass is far off-target, it will likely be another grind-it-out performance. The good news is, Colorado's defense simply isn't as good as OSU's or Texas', but it's good enough to make stops if the running game regresses and Gabbert can't throw. Oh yeah, and CU has a solid pass rush, and they'll happily tee off if given the opportunity.

Defensive Line

Remember how I pointed out yesterday that the CU receiving corps has next to no experience whatsoever? Well they've got nothing on the CU D-line. The eight names on the [projected depth chart] combined for 27.0 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 TFL. As a reference point, Mizzou's Jacquies Smith alone had 34.0 tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL in 2008, and he didn't really start seeing a ton of playing time until a few games into the season.

Half of the 27.0 tackles listed above (and all of the sacks) came from Herrod, who by default becomes the unquestioned veteran leader of the line. CU fans seem pretty excited about Conrad Obi, but it's all potential right now--he had exactly one tackle in 2008. If he can stay healthy, I think good things could be in store for Curtis Cunningham, but we'll see. The 7.5 tackles on his resume leave something to be desired. As we'll see, the CU LB corps and secondary have quite a bit of potential in 2009, but if the line is a sieve, it won't matter. CU had a mediocre D-line at best in 2008, and unless at least two of the people on the above list (or star recruit DE Nick Kasa) become studs, I don't see how the ranking won't fall in 2009.

DT Curtis Cunningham: 22.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 3DS (3rd-Down Stop*)
DE Marquez Herrod: 18.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 6 QBH, 5 3DS
DT Will Pericak: 11.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 4 3DS
DE Forrest West: 6.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 3DS

* I really wish other schools recorded defensive stats like CU does.

The Colorado defensive line isn't asked to do a ton, but Curtis Cunningham's tackle total is impressive for a DT. He seems like the type who is rather agile for his position but can be pushed around a bit. In all, you see these individual stats and start to conclude that most of CU's solid sack rates come from blitzing linebackers. Marquez Herrod, the aforementioned "unquestioned veteran leader of the line," has performed pretty well at end, but beyond that, this isn't a highly productive line. Nick Kasa has been slowed by injuries and has managed just 2.0 tackles (1.0 TFL) thus far.

So that brings up an interesting question. Texas aside, no team has blitzed Blaine Gabbert effectively, and even they picked and chose their spots quite well. Gabbert's instincts are not at the same level as Chase Daniel's, but he's been quite effective in seeing blitzes coming and knowing where to go with the ball. Teams who have effectively defended Missouri (without Texas' overall talent advantage) have done so by dropping as many as possible into coverage, and that doesn't appear to be Colorado's style. That could work in Missouri's favor.

Linebackers

Last year, Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler and Brad Jones combined to make up a solid-not-spectacular LB corps; this year Jones is gone, but a host of potentially capable replacements lie in wait. Jones was the big-time playmaker in the bunch (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), and he will be missed. While Smart and Mohler aren't big-time playmakers (they combined for just six sacks/TFLs) and Jones was (7 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 forced fumbles), every team needs a tackling machine or two, right? The trick will be getting some good blitzing from one of the potential Jones replacements.

There really is a nice mix here between experience (Smart, Mohler, Burton) and guys with high ceilings (Beatty, Rippy, Major), but while I think the high-ceiling guys could be quite strong in 2010, I'm not sure where they lie for 2009. I'm going to say that this unit has a pretty good chance to remain ranked somewhere in the 30s, but I'm not going to call for significant improvement until next year.

Jeff Smart: 59.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH, 6 3DS
Marcus Burton: 28.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 4 3DS
Shaun Mohler: 15.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 2 3DS
B.J. Beatty: 14.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 3DS
Tyler Ahles: 10.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 3DS
Michael Sipili: 10.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 3DS
Bryan Stengal: 5.0 tackles, 1 3DS

So far in 2009, it's been a mix of the experienced and high-ceiling guys getting the job done. Jeff Smart has pretty much collected one of everything--INT, FF, FR, TFL, etc.--but is mostly the prototypical tackling machine. The worrisome guys to me are Burton (experienced) and Beatty (high-upside). They are more disruptive types than Smart is, and even though I encourage teams to blitz Gabbert--it usually works out well for Mizzou--if Colorado is going to make a game-turning play on defense, it's as likely to be from Burton and Beatty as anybody else on the team. Also look out for Ahles, who had a pretty good game against K-State. Overall, this is likely CU's best overall defensive unit.

As a whole, CU's tackle-splits (by that, I mean how many tackles each unit has made, and what kind of tackles) point to a defense similar to Nevada's--lots of tackles for loss, lots of big pass plays allowed. Granted, Gabbert had two healthy ankles against Nevada, but I'd much prefer to see that type of defense again, especially if Mizzou's running game has started to improve.

Secondary

The strength of Colorado's defense in 2008, the Buffalo secondary returns a wealth of experience at cornerback...and a wealth of unknowns at safety. If Anthony Perkins and Patrick Mahnke (or anybody else) can do well in the "last line of defense" role, the depth at corner should serve them well. Cha'pelle Brown (71.5 tackles, 1 sack, 5 TFL, 10 pass breakups, 1 FF) was quietly strong last year, and either Jimmy Smith, Benjamin Burney or Jalil Brown should serve as a solid #2 CB. But really, the performance of this unit will come down to the safeties. I wasn't just amazed by the now-graduated Ryan Walters last year, and I think he is replaceable. This isn't the biggest secondary, but it should still remain the strength of the defense and remain ranked somewhere in the teens, if not a smidge higher.

CB Cha'pelle Brown: 40.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 1 PBU, 2 QBH, 8 3DS
CB Jimmy Smith: 39.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 FR, 6 PBU, 4 3DS
S Anthony Perkins: 28.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Jalil Brown: 26.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 FR, 6 PBU, 6 3DS
CB Benjamin Burney: 25.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF, 3 PBU, 1 QBH, 3 3DS
S Ray Polk: 22.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 3DS
S Patrick Mahnke: 9.0 tackles, 1 PBU

Last year Colorado had a Top 20 Passing S&P+ defense, and they returned pretty much all cornerbacks who contributed to that unit. They also, however, lost both starting safeties. Against Toledo, this cost them dearly. Colorado simply didn't have the secondary speed to cope when Toledo's skill position players got to the second level of the defense. Since then, things have improved a bit, but this unit is still a big question mark. If Gabbert is throwing reasonably accurate passes, then a hungry Mizzou receiving corps should be just fast enough to give the CU pass defense fits.

Of course, if he's spraying the ball like he has been recently, the secondary is more than good enough to thank him for the charity and make some plays.

Special Teams

I didn't even know Colorado was allowed to have a bad place-kicker. I just assumed that when Mason Crosby left, his replacement would be just as good. Nope. Last year, Aric Goodman was...well, we'll politely call him "iffy." I mean, 5-for-14? Really? ... He MUST improve if Colorado wants to duplicate its strong close-game record from a year ago. They got lucky that he wasn't more of a liability last year. Meanwhile, punting was only a hair better. Matt DiLallo returns, and like Goodman, he must improve. Seriously, how did Colorado not find somebody better than at least Goodman, if not Goodman and DiLallo?

Punt Returns Rank: 115th (Jason Espinoza: 19 returns, 3.2 average)
Net Punting Rank: 109th (Matt DiLallo: 34.6 Net Avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 21st (Darrell Scott: 21 returns, 26.9 average; Brian Lockridge: 13 returns, 24.9 average)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 12th

Field Goals: 6-for-10 (Long: 54)
PATs: 19-for-20

Well, the good news is, there have been improvements in some areas. Scott (who is out) and Lockridge (who is not) have combined for solid kick returning, and they have covered very well on their own kickoffs. Plus, while Colorado is still one of the worst in the country at field goals (60% is tied for 101st in the country), 60% is certainly an improvement over last year's 36%, right?

Of course, there's also the matter of the atrocious punting and non-existent punt returns threat (I guess Espinoza is the only player on the team who can reliably catch a punt?). Without a series of terrible bounces, Jake Harry should have little trouble flipping the field on punts, and assuming Carl Gettis' ankle is good to go, he could get a couple of decent return opportunities against a team that has already allowed two punt return touchdowns this year.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Field Position

For three quarters against Kansas, Colorado was almost completely listless. They were outscored in Q's 1, 3, and 4 by a combined 23-10. But in Q2, they exploded for 24 points, in part because Todd Reesing almost literally handed them the ball at the KU 3 on one possession (leading to a one-play TD drive), then later was picked off by Jalil Brown, who returned the pick to the 1 (leading to a two-play TD drive). Two drives, three plays, four yards...14 points. That's how you give a desperate team confidence. That's also how a team that manages just 322 yards for the entire game managed to score 34 points. Without easy scoring drives, this team does not score big points. They just don't.

Colorado's Scoring Drives and Sustained Drives

vs Colorado State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Toledo

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 6
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Wyoming

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs West Virginia

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 4
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Texas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 1
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 1

vs Kansas

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 3
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 2

vs Kansas State

Sustained drives of 40 yards or more: 2
Scoring drives of 30 yards or less: 0

In conference play, they have averaged just two sustained drives per game, but they have been handed three scores on short fields. Get rid of the short fields, caused mostly by turnovers and special teams mishaps, and you only have to score about 17 points to beat them. Of course, that's easier said than done for Missouri. Coinciding perfectly with Gabbert's injury, Missouri has averaged a -9.8 turnover points differential per game in conference play. Plus, Mizzou has gotten murdered in the field position battle the last two weeks (partially due to turnovers). Hand Colorado 10 points and good field position, and they can absolutely beat you. Turnovers are always key, but never more than against Colorado.

Missouri's defensive line

Simply put, a) Colorado's running backs aren't good enough to create good rushes on their own, and b) Colorado's quarterbacks aren't good enough to make big plays with under pressure. If the Missouri defensive line wins its battles versus the Colorado offensive line, Colorado simply cannot score enough to win, even with a handicapped Missouri offense.

Derrick Washington, Kendial Lawrence, De'Vion Moore

I listed them as keys to the Oklahoma State game as well, and while they performed relatively well, they didn't make enough of a difference to swing the game in Missouri's favor. This one is also quite cut-and-dried: if Missouri can move the ball on the ground and give Blaine Gabbert as little to do as possible, Missouri will score enough points to win the game, barring major mishaps in Key #1 above. If Gabbert is throwing an accurate ball, Mizzou could kill Colorado. If he's not, Mizzou could still win if these three keys are clicking.

Prediction

As I've mentioned time and time again, I always go with what my numbers project here (even last week, when I had the distinct impression that the numbers were full of hooey). The projections say Mizzou by 3.4, so we'll go with Mizzou 24, Colorado 21. That said, I think the best odds are on one of two scenarios: Mizzou's offense finds a rhythm against a much less fast defense, and they win by 17-20 (at least), or Mizzou turns the ball over too much and loses by about 7-10.

I realize I just spent a couple of thousand words talking about Colorado above, but really this game is about Missouri. Colorado is good enough to beat a team playing poorly and bad enough to get killed by a team playing well; therefore it's up to Missouri to play well and move to 5-3. As Gary Pinkel said earlier this week, Mizzou's out of time. It's time for the senior leaders--Sean Weatherspoon, Danario Alexander, Jaron Baston, Jared Perry, Kurtis Gregory--to take over, and it's time for the younger guys--Aldon Smith, De'Vion Moore, Wes Kemp, Jasper Simmons, Will Ebner, Dominique Hamilton, Dan Hoch, Elvis Fisher, Andrew Freaking Jones--to not only make some good plays here and there, but to take over a game.

This game will define Missouri's season. We knew from the start that the NU-OSU-UT swing of games represented probably three of Mizzou's four most losable games, and Mizzou lost all three. The next four games are exceedingly winnable, but it starts with Colorado. If Mizzou wins on Saturday, a 9-3 record and third straight North title is not only conceivable, but quite realistic. If they lose, however, then the rest of this season will instead be defined by scrounging around for another couple of wins and a bowl bid. The North title and a true "eff you" to critics who predicted a major downfall in 2009 will go out the window. It's a damn shame that Gabbert got hurt when he did--if he hadn't, Mizzou might be as good as 5-1 and ranked in the teens right now. But he did, and it's time for everybody else on the team to carry him to a win the way he carried them in St. Louis and Reno. Show us what you've got, Mizzou.

Colorado: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's Colorado Week! Time to check in on a team with more "ifs" on offense than anybody else on the league, but key recruiting success (a.k.a. Darrell Scott and a couple of linemen) and a decent enough back seven on defense that people can't help but pick them as a sleeper for the fourth straight year.

I'm not going to lie. There are two teams in the Big 12 whose continuously-predicted success has baffled me enough over the years that I can't help but be more of a naysayer than I like to be: Nebraska and Colorado. The insecure Mizzou fan in me says that if Mizzou had either Colorado's or Nebraska's roster, they'd be ranked fourth or fifth in the North, but since it's Nebraska and Colorado, they're given the benefit of the doubt. How true is this? Am I being overly unfair? Am I being extremely fair?

So I can get myself off the hook and leave my own biases at the door, let's take a look at what the BTBS numbers have to say about CU in 2009 to see if I'm right on, or if I'm being unfair and insecure. Or both.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6)
S&P+: 192.0 (82nd in the country, 10th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 242-351 (-109)
Conference Scoring Margin: 135-257 (-122)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #70 Colorado State, #75 West Virginia, #79 Kansas State, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Eastern Washington
Losses: #5 Texas, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #37 Florida State, #98 Texas A&M

It was an injury-prone, youth-to-the-extreme season for Colorado in 2008, particularly on offense. A 3-0 start was highlighted by a nice win over West Virginia, but the Buffs finished the season losing seven of nine games, scoring over 20 points just twice in Big 12 play and over 35 just once all season. A decent defense was overshadowed by a putrid offense, the worst in the Big 12 by far.

In the end, CU was 0-6 versus teams ranked above 70th in the S&P+ rankings (though West Virginia was by far the biggest outlier in the rankings--they weren't great, but 75th is shockingly low...the S&P+ rankings really didn't like their defense) and 4-1 versus those ranked below.

In 2007, a shocking win over Oklahoma overshadowed an average season that saw them finish with a #78 ranking and 6-7 record. So while they didn't regress much overall in 2008, they certainly didn't improve. And here's the scary part: Colorado went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. In other words, they were very lucky to finish 5-7. A closer-to-.500 record in those games would have led to a 3-9 or 4-8 record overall. As Phil Steele would mention, a +3 net win total in close games is usually a sign that a fall is coming the next year (and yet he picked Colorado above KU and MU anyway...strange).

But even with a little too much success in close games, Colorado was still unlucky when it came to injuries, and they still were playing a ton of young players. So surely they will improve in 2009, right? Right? And if so, how much?

Should this man be smiling?

Coaching

Head Coach: ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins
Record at Colorado: 13-24 (conference: 8-16)
Pythagorean Record: 14.47 wins (-0.5/year)

Who knew that when Dan Hawkins was racking up a 53-11 record in five seasons at Boise State, he was actually holding Boise back (BSU's improved to 35-4 in the last three seasons)? Kidding. Hawkins brought to Boulder an outstanding track record, and while things haven't worked out for him so far--three straight losing seasons for CU for the first time since 1982-84--with the amount of youth on this team, he's still got quite a few people in his corner. And he's insisting on accountability and taking responsibility for CU's struggles, which is refreshing.

It really has been pretty bad in Boulder, though. Not only has CU gone only 13-24 in The Hawk's time in Boulder (11-14 if you're giving him a free pass on his 2006 debut), but they've actually underachieved a bit in terms of Pythagorean projections. And that's not even half the story. As we've learned by now, blowouts skew the projections, and, well, Mizzou has outscored the Buffs by a cool 141-23 in the last three years. So you would think that the Missouri results alone would give them a low Pythagorean projection, causing them to overachieve in overall wins, right? Wrong--despite the Mizzou skew, Colorado has still managed to underachieve.

I can't tell you what kind of hot seat awaits Hawkins if he doesn't at least get back to a bowl this year--I think the 2007 win over OU bought him some extra goodwill that he hasn't quite used up yet--but I can tell you that I have been completely unimpressed. We're not talking about a "The Beef / Ron Prince" level of unimpressed, but CU has not shown any modicum of improvement in three years, and while I'm willing to give him this fourth season to see if Year #3 really was shot down by injuries, I just don't have a lot of confidence in the CU program while Hawkins is at the helm. If I'm being unfair, CU will probably show it this year.

Alright...to the rankings!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 82.0 (#114)
Success Rate+: 85.0 (#115)
PPP+: 78.9 (#112)

Standard Downs S&P+: 84.0 (#110)
Passing Downs S&P+: 79.9 (#114)

Red Zone S&P+: 97.9 (#71)

Q1 S&P+: 85.0 (#98)
Q2 S&P+: 75.2 (#118)
Q3 S&P+: 77.0 (#117)
Q4 S&P+: 92.9 (#89)

1st Down S&P+: 81.1 (#113)
2nd Down S&P+: 80.5 (#116)
3rd Down S&P+: 76.3 (#116)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 85.9 (#102)
Rushing SR+: 91.7 (#97)
Rushing PPP+: 78.9 (#105)

Standard Downs: 84.2 (#108)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#83)

Red Zone: 99.7 (#74)

Line Yards+: 91.4 (#97)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 78.9 (#111)
Passing SR+: 78.8 (#117)
Passing PPP+: 79.6 (#106)

Standard Downs: 84.3 (#104)
Passing Downs: 76.8 (#112)

Red Zone: 102.6 (#59)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.8% (#82)

Here's the question that lingers over all of these numbers: how much can a team improve in one offseason? Because while the odds are decent that CU's offense will indeed improve this year, to say they have a long way to go is an insult to long distances. They were sooooo bad last year. My god. Terrible rushing, terrible passing. Terrible on Standard Downs, terrible on Passing Downs. Terrible in Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4. Terrible on 1st downs, 2nd downs, and 3rd downs. The bright side: they were only below-average in the red zone! Seriously, when your best ranking in the above table is 59th (Red Zone Passing), you know things didn't go how you hoped.

With more experience at RB and OL, hopefully better QB play, and fewer overall injuries, Colorado should improve in 2009. How much?

Two ways to look at that: first, if they were to improve back to 2007 levels, that would only get them to 73rd in S&P+. But what if they improve a lot?

Here are the top five most improved offenses from 2007 to 2008 and how much they improved their Close-Game S&P+:

Iowa (+34.0%)
Notre Dame (+30.7%)
Rice (+29.8%)
UAB (+26.8%)
Pittsburgh (+26.6%)

If Colorado were to improve by 34% in 2009, that would give them an S&P+ of 109.9, which would have garnered a ranking of 40th in 2008 and 38th in 2007. So if they improve as much as any offense in the country--really, the best-case scenario--that might be enough to get them into the Top 40 offensively. It's within the realm of possibility, but one does not find a lot of success in life betting on the best-case scenario. Trust me, I've tried.

Quarterback

Ahh, Cody Hawkins. Not sure there has been a more maligned multi-year starter in the country since Reggie Ball was taking snaps for Georgia Tech.

2008 Unit Ranking: #113 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody ~~Nolte~~ Hawkins (5'11, 190, Jr.)
~~Taylor~~ Tyler Hansen (6'1, 200, So.)
Clark Evans? (6'5, 230, Fr.)

Here's your chicken v. egg debate. Colorado's QBs were just about the worst among all BCS conference teams (Washington State's QB unit was 118th)--was that because they really were bad, or because everybody around them was either a) injured, b) a freshman, and/or c) not very good? If the cast of characters surrounding Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen improves considerably, can one or both of them turn into a competent guide for the offense? Cody Hawkins earned a lot of goodwill during his redshirt freshman season in 2007, primarily because of the win over OU. Beyond that game, he didn't show a whole lot, but he was a freshman. Unfortunately, he regressed considerably in 2008, just like everybody else on the Colorado offense. Hansen was able to very briefly breathe new life into the CU offense just by offering a different style of threat--he was able to generate some offense with his legs, something Hawkins is not capable of doing.

In the end, they were both not very good, but they are still young. For better or worse, CU still has two more years of Hawkins and three of Hansen. It really wouldn't surprise me if Clark Evans were given a look if Hawkins/Hansen prove early on that they still can't get the job done, or if one or the other gets injured.

Running Backs

Time to prove why you were a five-star recruit, Darrell.

2008 Unit Ranking: #107 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected TB Depth Chart
Darrell Scott (6'1, 200, So.)
Rodney Stewart (5'7, 170, So.)
Brian Lockridge (5'7, 175, So.)
Demetrius Sumler (5'10, 215, Jr.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jake Behrens (6'0, 240, Sr.)
Trace Adams (6'0, 210, Sr.)

Both at RMN and Football Outsiders, I've introduced a new measure for evaluating running backs: POE (Points Over Expected). It is exactly what it suggests--a look at a running back's output compared to what would be expected versus the defenses he faced. A positive POE means he produced more than the average running back would have produced. Negative = less than average.

Here are the POE ratings for the three CU running backs who got more than 50 carries in 2008:

Demetrius Sumler (-0.5 POE, 97.8 PPP+, #138 of 269 eligible RBs)
Darrell Scott (-8.1 POE, 73.3 PPP+, #221)
Rodney Stewart (-13.6 POE, 68.1 PPP+, #256)

Ouch.

We all know about Darrell Scott's recruiting profile--he was Rivals.com's #1 running back recruit in the country in 2008--but after Scott's first year in Boulder, we have absolutely no idea what he's capable of. During an injury-prone freshman season, he showed none of the explosiveness or elusiveness that we would expect out of a national Top 10 recruit, but clearly it's not too late. As a whole, you'd like your running back built more like Derrick Washington than Jeremy Maclin, but if Scott can stay healthy, he may (may) be able to live up to the hype. He had 154 yards on 34 carries (4.5 per carry) in spring scrimmages, which is far from amazing, but he's clearly still young.

Beyond Scott are two guys built on misconceptions. It seems like Rodney Stewart was pretty good in 2008. Wrong. Yardage-wise, he turned out to be CU's most successful freshman last year, posting 632 yards in 132 carries before getting injured himself. Problem was, as shown by POE, most of his yards came against iffy defenses. He did well against an okay Florida State run defense (21 carries, 107 yards), but otherwise most of his yards came against West Virginia (28-for-166) and Kansas State (29-for-141), two rather awful run defenses. Against Missouri and Texas, the two best run defenses on the schedule, Stewart managed just 36 yards on 18 carries.

Meanwhile, since Demetrius Sumler is behind both Scott and Stewart on the depth chart, it appears that he's less productive than both. Wrong. Sumler was deceptively successful in 2008 (well, more successful than Scott/Stewart--overall he was extremely average). He looked very good in the spring, but he appears to be buried on the depth chart behind three sophomores (Scott, Stewart, Brian Lockridge).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Simas is expected to produce immediately. If he doesn't, who will?

2008 Unit Ranking: #110 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Markques Simas (6'2, 200, So.)
Scotty McKnight (5'11, 185, Jr.)
Dustin Ebner (6'1, 175, RSFr.)
Jason Espinoza (5'8, 175, So.)
Andre Simmons (6'3, 210, Jr.)
Cameron Ham (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Ryan Maxwell (5'9, 180, So.)
Kevin Moyd (5'7, 200, Sr.)
Kyle Cefalo (5'10, 165, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Riar Geer (6'4, 250, Sr.)
Ryan Deehan (6'5, 240, So.)
Patrick Devenny (6'3, 240, Sr.)

So Colorado had the 11th worst receiving corps in the nation in 2009, 3rd worst among BCS conference teams (Michigan was 112th, Washington State 118th). Then, after spring ball, they unexpectedly lost their only proven explosive threat*, Josh Smith, to transfer. Well, they might have lost him to transfer--they're allowing him to only accept a scholarship to USC or UCLA, which is just petty, but if neither of those schools offer him a scholarship (sounds like UCLA is looking like a pretty viable option), then I don't know what happens. Does he stay? If he stays, does he play?

* He was far from amazing, but he was Colorado's Jeremy Maclin.

Regardless, a bad receiving corps probably got worse in terms of proven talent, but CU fans are putting a lot of hope in Markques Simas, a big-time recruit from Hawkins' first full-year recruiting class who sat out last due to (I believe) academics. With Smith, Simas could have had a nice role as the explosive #2 guy while Scotty McKnight continued to fill the "possession receiver" role, but without Smith the pressure will be on Simas to make plays from the very beginning.

Beyond Simas and McKnight (46 catches, 519 yards, 5 TDs)...oy. The seven other names I listed on the projected WR depth chart combined for...wait for it...one catch in 2008. And that one catch (from RB-turned-WR Kevin Moyd) garnered a loss of a yard. You never know when somebody will emerge out of the blue and thrive, but you certainly don't want to have to rely on that. With the level of inexperience here, the WR corps is ripe for an infusion of energy from a true freshman or two--don't be surprised if either/both Jarrod Darden (6'5, 210) and/or Terdema Ussery (6'4, 205) see the field early.

On the bright side, Colorado does have some decent experience at tight end. Riar Geer (61 career catches, 7 TDs), Patrick Devenny (15 career catches, 3 TDs), and Ryan Deehan (5 catches, 1 TD) have proven to be decent red zone receivers, but none are dangerous enough to garner special attention from a defense. Leave them open, and they'll catch some passes, but they're not going to kill you. Still, though, it's nice having experience at tight end, if for no other reason than you have some help on third downs and in the red zone.

And somehow Kyle Cefalo is of no relation to Jimmy Cefalo. What a disappointment that is.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #102 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Ryan Miller (6'8, 310, So.)
G Blake Behrens (6'3, 290, So.)
T Nate Solder (6'9, 300, Jr.)
T Bryce Givens (6'6, 275, RSFr.)
C Mike Iltis (6'3, 275, So.)
T Matthew Bahr (6'4, 285, So.)
G Devin Head (6'4, 290, Sr.)
C Keenan Stevens (6'2, 285, Jr.)
T Ryan Dannewitz (6'6, 290, RSFr.)
G Shawn Daniels (6'3, 280, So.)

If there truly is hope for the Colorado offense in 2009, it probably comes from the potential of the offensive line. Ryan Miller was another big-time recruit who got thrown into the deep end last year and actually acquitted himself pretty well. Blake Behrens got a lot of early experience as well. These two, combined with incoming redshirts Bryce Givens and Ryan Dannewitz, not to mention a host of sophomores (sans guard Max Tuioti-Mariner, who has suffered approximately 26 knee injuries in his brief CU career and is out at least for 2009, if not forever), should bring very solid line play to Colorado in the future.

I can't say for sure that this will happen in 2009, mind you--the line may not congeal until 2010--but there is hope here. Injuries and extreme youth decimated the line last year, so it's impossible to say exactly how much potential is here just yet (sounds like the running back corps, no?), but again, we're just talking about hope. This will still be one of the conference's younger lines in 2009, but if things click soon, the entire offense starts to look a lot better.

Summary

A five-star starter at RB, a four-star starter at WR, and a five-star (with at least one four-star) on the offensive line. From a recruiting perspective, there's some top-end talent here. But almost none of the top-end players have proven themselves yet, and until they do, we don't know that they will, right? My best guess for the Colorado offense in 2009 is that it will rebound to around the rankings it found in 2007...sort of. In 2007, they were 95th rushing and 43rd passing--I can see the opposite happening this year, where Colorado does begin to establish a relatively solid running game, but the passing game still holds them back considerably. Seriously, beyond McKnight, the entire WR unit has one career catch. It's hard to ignore that and just assume that things will click there, even with a decent running game.

Whatever Colorado manages to do in 2009, it will likely be because of their linebackers and secondary, and maybe their running game. There are still far too many question marks on the offense to expect much, but if they can stay healthy and rack up the experience, then they might be in pretty decent shape for 2010.

Spring Recap: The Offensive Line

irish1611 — Sun, 03 May 2009 13:11:38 -0000

Pre-Spring Thoughts:

Coming into spring ball, all we could really think about was the potential the offensive line had. Last year with the injuries to Ryan Miller, Mike Iltis and Max Tuioti-Mariner as well as other issues that plagued the offensive line, many young Buffs played and gained experience. When you looked at the 2009 roster before the start of spring, there were 12 players that were eligible for any one of the starting spots on the offensive line (that doesn't even count players like C Evan Eastburn and OT Ryan Dannewitz.)That is great depth and with many players getting a taste last year, it was easy to think that all of this competition would make the o-line that much better. Going into camp, you could guess that Ryan Miller (6'8 310 So.) and Nate Solder (6'9" 300 Jr.) had the inside track at both of the tackle positions with the three other spots open for battle. Optimistic was the best way to describe the offensive line.

But that optimism was tempered by the departure of 2008 offensive line coach, Jeff Grimes, to Auburn and the hiring of Denver Johnson, a former head coach of Murray State and Illinois State as well as the ACL injury to one time 2008 starting guard, Max Tuioti-Mariner (6'3" 300 RFr).

Prior to his head coaching stints, Denver Johnson worked his way through the ranks at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State and Oklahoma, gaining important Big 12 experience and establishing himself recruiting-wise in the state of Texas, something that made Buff fans excited.

As for MTM, the ACL injury was his third in as many years, something most of us cannot imagine returning from. Tuioti-Mariner showed why he was a top recruit in 2008 by quickly inserting himself into the starting lineup before he was lost early the season with his second ACL injury. He, as well as Ryan Miller, received a medical redshirt for last season, something that only increased the optimism around the future of the offensive line. MTM is still determined to come back and coach Dan Hawkins thinks that he can be ready for fall.

click after the jump to read the rest of the offensive line recap...

Post Spring Thoughts:

Starting with Denver Johnson, it seems like he has fit in extremely well with the offensive line as well as pleasing the fan base saying the Buffs were going to be more aggressive, playing on the opponents side of the ball. Johnson learned the terminology of the offensive line instead of instilling his own to keep the learning curve down, focusing more on changes in technique from the Grimes era, something that will pay dividends in the fall. Basically, Johnson's goal is turn the Buffs into a smash mouth team, something that fits the change in the overall offensive scheme. I think 9 out of 10 Buff fans would give an enthusiastic two thumbs up for the Denver Johnson hire thus far, with a perfect 10 coming if he can turn heads recruiting Texas.

On to the players. The first day of spring ball, the starting lineup was Solder at left tackle, Matt Bahr at left guard (6'4" 285 So.), Mike Iltis at center (6'3" 275 So.), Miller at right guard and initially surprising, Bryce Givens at right tackle (6'6" 275 R-Fr.). The move of Miller to guard and redshirt freshman, Bryce Givens, to right tackle came as a surprise to many Buff fans considering Miller's past starting experience at tackle but Denver Johnson stuck to his word; he wants the five best offensive lineman on the field. If you remember correctly, Givens was a four star recruit in 2008 but was about 250 pounds and had concussion issues. It looks like he has put the health concerns behind him and with the addition of 25 pounds to his 6'6" frame, he made himself a serious contender for the starting tackle spot. Solder and Givens are both big, athletic guys on the edge and should be a successful mainstay for the Buffs the next two years. At the conclusion of camp, Solder, Givens, Miller and Iltis found themselves in the same spots while the left guard spot is still up for grabs, in my opinion. Johnson is still trying to get a feel for all of his guys which would explain three different starters at the guard position this spring from Bahr to Sione Tau (6'5" 325 So.) to Ethan Adkins (6'4" 295 So.). Expect as many as six players battling for that one guard spot with the three I mentioned above as well as Shawn Daniels (6'3" 280 So.), Tuioti-Mariner and Blake Behrens (6'3" 290 So.) (all three out due to injury this spring) to have their shot.

As far as the performance this spring, it was a nice progression of results. With a new offensive line coach, Miller moving to guard, new starters at the other guard position as well as center and right tackle, everybody had to adapt and it took time to see the results on the field. I do have to say I am excited about the offensive line especially if we can solidify the guard spot. Hopefully Tuioti-Mariner or Behrens, who can gained experience last year, can step in and be a starter for the next three to four years.

The running game failed to really get going in the initial two scrimmages. The first scrimmage, the offense rushed for only 108 yards on 33 carries, good for a 3.3 average. No running back averaged over 4 yards a clip. The second scrimmage was not much better: 29 carries, 102 yards for an average of 3.5 ypc. The spring game was a different story, though. You could tell that the line had progressed and were more comfortable with the offense and the scheme. In a perfect way to end the spring session, the Buffs ran 50 times for 310 yards, an average of 6.2 per carry. All running backs went for over 5.5 yards an attempt, something that we expected based on the talent of the offensive line.

Injuries:

OG Max Tuioti-Mariner out for entire spring, OG Devin Head limited this spring, played in spring game, OG Blake Behrens limited/out this spring, OG Shawn Daniels limited/out this spring, OL Sione Tau did not play in spring game, missed a few practices for personal reasons after starting at left guard for the second week of spring. All expected to be ready for fall ball, doubt about MTM being ready.

Player(s) Who Emerged:

C Mike Iltis and RT Bryce Givens. Iltis has filled in nicely for last year's starter and stalwart, Daniel Sanders. Iltis is still learning this position and getting comfortable making the line calls but he never relinquished the center spot all spring. As for Givens, enough was said above about his successful offseason. Both Givens and Solder should be fun to watch at the tackle spots.

Final Assessment:

All things still look on the up and up. This squad is deep and if MTM comes back healthy, watch out. This unit has all the talent and it looks like the coaching to be very successful in the Big 12. A lot will be on the shoulders of the offensive line with a depleted wide receiver corp and a duo at quarterback that probably isn't going to beat anybody by themselves. The way this group goes, is the way the offense goes in 2009. The best part is they are still young, but experienced from last season!