SB Nation - Zach Frazer

Raking The Muck: Catching Up With Mr. Jones and Mr. Frazer

CW — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 19:30:19 -0000

by Mel Evans - AP

3 months ago: Cincinnati's Demetrius Jones (2) can't catch Rutgers running back Joe Martinek (38) as Martinek runs for a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game Monday, Sept. 7, 2009, in Piscataway, N.J. Cincinnati won 47-15. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

View full size photo »

Just a few things of note as you wind down your day...

I enjoyed this Dan Wetzel column on Charlie Weis and the various projections for the season. The more I think about it, it is really odd that there are objective analysts citing anything from a firing to a BCS berth, but that's what you get after a couple maddeningly inconsistent and/or terrible seasons. I've loved the attitude of Weis and this team from the beginning of camp: we are going to say nothing. We are going to just go out and attempt to play winning football and let the cards fall where they may. Wrapping the whole thing up in Teddy Roosevelt's oft-cited quote makes sense, and is something Irish fans should pay heed to in the coming weeks as well (although don't carry a big stick around with you, your co-workers may think it a bit odd. A small-to-medium sized stick will work in a jam).

Demetrius Jones had an interception yesterday in the Bearcats' rout of Rutgers, along with seven tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss in his first start at linebacker. Not to be outdone by his former battery mate, Zach Frazer registered three picks in UConn's opening win. That was not as good, because Frazer was playing quarterback against Ohio, but still, a win is a win.

The best Irish site on the internet does there thing in breaking down the running game Saturday, starting with a look at formation usage/effectiveness and then looking at who was sliding into the frontline as the game progressed.

A thousand cocktails to Orson for this excerpt from his weekend review:

Songs by Kenny Chesney we have rewritten for the pleasure of paying proper tribute to this year's new theme for College Gameday on ESPN.

"No Shirt, No Shoes, No Problem, Because I Have Been Garroted by Orson Swindle and Thrown Off the Lester and Virginia Maddox Bridge, and Am Dead."

"I Will Stand (In A Vat Of Concrete Bound And Gagged While Orson Swindle Entombs Him In the Foundations Of The Swindle Home For Smartass Children with ADD.")

"You Had Me From ‘Hello, This Is Tiger With a Taste for Human Flesh, Particularly the Short And Sleeveless.'"

"She Thinks My Tractor's Sexy, Especially When It's Being Hit With An RPG Fired By Orson Swindle With Me On It."

"There Goes My Life" (No editing needed.)

"Guitars and Tiki Bars and OH GOD NOT IN THE FACE."

My take on ESPN using Dave Matthews Band and Mr. Chesney as their preferred football music is that they're simply showing us who runs the show. They're the boss, we have no control and if we want football, we're going to take it in whatever form they want to dish it out. Is there a single artist that would make you not watch college football on Saturday? And is there a single artist that's going to bring in non-fans to watch just because they get to here snippets of his/her/their music upon going to break? No, of course not, so ESPN is just screwing with us, flexing at the top of the mountain as they sprinkle the occasional pigskin nourishment down to us huddled masses.

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU

10Jordan Reed 4* Florida

11Raymond Cotton 4* Ole Miss

Not included – 14 Denard Robinson 4* ATH - Michigan

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2009

1Matt Barkley 5* USC

2Garrett Gilbert 5* Texas

3Aaron Murray 4* Georgia

4Tajh Boyd 4* Clemson

5Bryn Renner 4* North Carolina

6Richard Brehaut 4* UCLA

7AJ McCarron 4* Alabama

8Tom Savage 4* Rutgers

9Andrew Maxwell 4* Michigan State

10Allan Bridgford 4* California

11Zach Mettenberger 4* Georgia

12Tyler Russell 4* Mississippi State

13Josh Nunes 4* Stanford

14Ryan Mossakowski 4* Kentucky

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2008

1Terrelle Pryor 5* OSU – You may have heard of him

2E.J. Manuel 4* Florida State

3MarQueis Gray 4* Minnesota - eligibility issues

4Robert Griffin 4* Baylor - Starter

5Matt Scott 4* Arizona

6Darron Thomas 4* Oregon - Bench

7Curt Phillips 4* Wisconsin

8B.J. Daniels 4* South Florida

9Kody Spano 3* Nebraska

10Jaybo Shaw 3* Georgia Tech - Included for awesome name

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2008

1Blaine Gabbert 5* Missouri - sorta starter

2Dayne Crist 5* Notre Dame - Bench

3Mike Glennon 4* N.C. State - starter

4Andrew Luck 4* Stanford

5Star Jackson 4* Alabama

6Landry Jones 4* Oklahoma

7Jacory Harris 4* Miami - Starter

8Jordan Jefferson 4* LSU

9Tyler Wilson 4* Arkansas

10Kyle Parker 4* Clemson

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2007

1Tyrod Taylor 5* VTech – Starter

2Cameron Newton 5* Florida

3Aaron Corp 4* Southern Cal - Starter

4Stephen Garcia 4* South Carolina - washout?

5Willy Korn 4* Clemson - Starter

6Keith Nichol 4* Oklahoma - Bench/transfer?

7Chris Forcier 4* UCLA - Washout/transfer

8Kodi Burns 4*Auburn

9Josh Nesbitt 4* Georgia Tech - starter

10Logan Gray 4* Georgia

11Kellen Kiilsgaard 4* Stanford

12Bradley Starks 4* West Virginia

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2007

1Jimmy Clausen 5* Notre Dame - Starter

2Ryan Mallett 5* Michigan – Transfer/Starter

3John Brantley 4* Florida

4Mike Paulus 4* North Carolina

5Peter Lalich 4*Virginia

6Pat Bostick 4*Pittsburgh - Bench

7Jarrett Lee 4* LSU - sorta starter

8Robert Marve 4* Miami-FL - washout/transfer

9Steven Threet 4* Georgia Tech – Sadly, washout/Transfer x2.

10BJ Coleman 4* Tennessee - nothing

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2006

1Tim Tebow 5* Florida (Football Jesus)

2Demetrius Jones 4* Notre Dame Washout/Transfer – Now a linebacker at NIU

3Jevan Snead 4* Texas – Transfer/Starter at Ole Miss

4Jake Locker 4* Washington – Punching bag/Starter

5Jeremy Ricker 4* Maryland

6Austen Arnaud 4* Iowa State

7Garrett Green 4* Southern Cal - bench

8Sherrod Harris 4* Texas - bench

9Antonio Henton 4* Ohio State – Who?

11Rick Stanzi 3* Iowa – Starter/Manzi

14Adam Weber 3* Minnesota - Starter

15Nate Davis 3* Ball State - NFL

16Todd Reesing 3* Kansas – Marky M says Balla.

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2006

1Matthew Stafford 5* Georgia 1DC

2Mitch Mustain 5* Arkansas Washout

3Isiah Williams 4* Illinois Starter

4Josh Freeman 4* Kansas State Starter/washout/NFL?

5Pat Devlin 4* Penn State washout/transfer

6Kevin Riley 4* California sorta starter

7Neil Caudle 4* Auburn bench

8Chris Smelley 4* South Carolina sorta starter/washout

9Zach Frazer 4* Notre Dame washout

10Tyler Lyon 3* Arizona Bench

11Greg McElroy 3* Alabama – Starter (sorta)

12Sam Bradford 3* Oklahoma (Heisman winner)

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2005

1Mark Sanchez 5* Southern Cal - NFL

2Jonathan Crompton 4* Tennessee - sorta starter

3Harrison Beck 4* Nebraska

4Derek Shaw 4* Arizona State

5Willie Tuitama 4* Arizona - One Time Stater/washout

6Rob Schoenhoft 4* Ohio State - bench

7Joe Cox 4* Georgia - bench?

8Arkelon Hall 3* Washington St.

9Domenic Natale 3* Michigan State

10Sean Canfield 3* Oregon State

11Bill Stull 3* Pittsburgh - starter

12Evan Sharpley 3* Notre Dame - Graduated

14Dustin Sherer 3* Wisconsin - sorta starter

15Colt McCoy 3* Texas - Starter Heisman Candidate

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2005

1Ryan Perrilloux 5* LSU - Washout of spectacular fashion

2Jake Christensen 4* Iowa - Washout

3Ike Whitaker 4* Virginia Tech - Washout

4Josh Portis 4* Florida - ?

5Kyle Reed 4* California - ?

6Chase Daniel 4* Missouri - NFL?

7Jimmy Johns 3* Alabama - Proveyor of Fine Powdered Products

10Zac Robinson 3* Oklahoma State - Starter

Big East Power Poll: Week Five

Mike Rutherford — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 18:37:14 -0000

The first pair of conference games didn't exactly shake things up.

1. South Florida (1) (5-0, 0-0)

Last Week: Beat North Carolina State (41-10)

This Week: vs. Pittsburgh

The showing up every other week thing needs to end quickly with a Pitt team very much capable of playing up to the level of their competition coming to town on Thursday night.

2. Connecticut (2) (5-0, 1-0)

Last Week: Beat Louisville (26-21)

This Week: At North Carolina

If Zach Frazer can be as good as he looked at times against Louisville, then the Huskies have as good a shot as anyone to wear the Big East crown.

3. West Virginia (4) (2-2, 0-0)

Last Week: Beat Marshall (27-3)

This Week: vs. Rutgers

A convincing win over a D-1 opponent is a nice start, but if the Mountaineers can't take care of a struggling Rutgers squad in their conference opener then the talk of a death spiral will immediately resume.

4. Cincinnati (3) (3-1, 0-0)

Last Week: Beat Akron (17-15)

This Week: At Marshall

Brian Kelly should try and trade one of his defensive backs for Jarrett Brown.

5. Louisville (5) (2-2, 0-1)

Last Week: Lost to Connecticut (26-21)

This Week: Off

Every stat from last Friday night outside of the only one that matters says U of L should be No. 2 in this poll. The Cards desperately need this bye week to get healthy.

6. Pittsburgh (6) (3-1, 1-0)

Last Week: Beat Syracuse (34-24)

This Week: At South Florida

I thought they would lose to Syracuse, so maybe I ought to have bumped the Panthers to No. 5 as a form of apology. Regardless, a win on Thursday will be more than enough to launch them to at least No. 2.

7. Rutgers (7) (1-3, 0-0)

Last Week: Beat Morgan State (38-0)

This Week: At West Virginia

Yeah, BUT it was the FCS team with the kid who made that ridiculous catch two weeks ago.

8. Syracuse (8) (1-4, 0-1)

Last Week: Lost to Pittsburgh (34-24)

This Week: Off

Being in the game for four quarters and only losing by 10 to an average team in a home conference tilt is like a blowout win by Greg Robinson standards.

Connecticut 26, Louisville 21

Mike Rutherford — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:34:49 -0000

Sigh. The weekend's over, it's time to face this one.

If I said "I don't understand how we just lost that game" - or some slight variation - one time Friday night, I said it 20 times. Three days later I still have no handle on how it happened. Of course this is what fans of UConn victims have been saying for the past two years.

It's not a debate anymore, Vic Anderson is the real deal. If I could have frozen time the moment he caught the dump pass from Cantwell near the end of the first half, I would have put the odds of him getting into the endzone at no better than 10:1. He has the potential to be very special.

I have my doubts over whether or not a quarterback unable to move well enough to make a simple handoff should be taking snaps with the game on the line, but I suppose you have to listen to a senior leader when he says he can go. Bum ankle or not, there's no excuse for Hunter making that throw, especially given the amount of time he had.

Josh Chichester's good is still outweighing his bad, but both are unquestionably present. Cantwell was definitely too keyed in on the big man after the first quarter, a habit which likely cost us six points when he missed a wide open Brock Bolen down the right sideline.

Awesome to see Bilal finally break out. The prospects of an Anderson/Powell backfield for the next two seasons might be the biggest thing this program has going for it.

Penalties absolutely killed us. Earl Heyman's questionable roughing the passer led to a Husky score, Abdul Kuyateh's second false start turned a crucial 3rd and 2 into a 3rd and 7, and I'm pretty sure at least one of the 52 not enough men on the line of scrimmage infractions was costly. The final tally shows just seven flags for 60 yards, but the severity of almost all of them made it feel like much more.

Donald Brown is a future pro, and he deserves more Heisman pub than he's receiving.

I don't understand how the secondary continually allows the middle of the field to exist uncovered. I realize that English was bringing Thomas or Buchanan up to help out against the run, but there were three or four plays where the Connecticut receiver camping out between the hashes didn't have a defender within ten yards of him. That just can't happen.

Me thinks Zach Frazer was the better option at QB for UConn all along. If he can keep opposing secondaries at least semi-honest, then this could be a team the nation sees being blown out in a BCS game.

I'm going to go ahead and step up and take a solid chunk of the blame for this one. I left the hat I'd worn for the Tennessee Tech and Kansas State games over at a friend's house a couple of weekends ago, and ended up being forced to go with my number two. I was worried about this from the day's outset, and I think it's safe to say that my fears were confirmed.

I don't blame you, Stoudt.

It's not really his fault, but the ten minutes of cliche after cliche being hurled in a monotone voice that is the Steve Kragthorpe postgame interview is almost impossible to take after a loss like Friday's. A tipsy friend in the backseat of our car hopelessly said, "I can't take it, turn it off" at least three times while Krags was busy delivering the script any one of us could prepare at this point.

The three fourth-down attempts blew my mind. I realize that Dougherty still isn't 100%, but how are we ever going to know what his ceiling is if we never trot him out there? Kragthorpe said the wind was the biggest factor in each of the decisions, but the wind was at U of L's back the third time. Making the move even less understandable is the fact that Cantwell had just left the game, and the only other option besides trying the 42 or 43 yarder was apparently a draw play on 4th and six. Opting not to take three hurt us badly in a couple of games last year (hey, Syracuse), and it might have cost us the game Friday night.

Being removed of placekicking duties did not help Chris Philpott on kickoffs. Desi Cullen, on the other hand, was a huge weapon for the Huskies. Wonder where the hell they found him.

Doug Beaumont: still awesome.

It's not an original complaint, but I had some serious issues with the music on Friday. Playing nothing for five minutes and then blasting the beginning of a song for three seconds before play resumes is frustrating, as is the choice of "Highway to the Dangerzone" in the moments leading up to the biggest offensive play of the game. Full blame for that interception goes to Loggins.

I came scary close to throwing my second-string hat when the deadball timeout was called.

The play worked, but I don't understand not using a lead-blocker on third and short, especially one as capable as Joe Tronzo.

Hope that joint was great, Matt.

Dexter Heyman may have made the most impressive defensive play of the season thus far when he came flying out of nowhere to keep Donald Brown from getting the corner and prancing into the endzone. When I saw the play developing, I didn't think there was any way one of our guys was going to be able to get there.

Chris Campa also deserves a shout-out for flying around the field and throwing some weight around all night. Sans a bad offsides penalty, Mo Mitchell was another standout.

Serious question: was Anderson's return to the 25 after he botched the initial catch the longest kick return we've had all season? I can't remember any better.

The Connecticut player waving bye to the crowd and doing the international sign for "shh" after Cantwell's last interception is almost less cool than Larry Taylor. Almost.

A bye week, and then at Memphis on a Friday night followed by a Saturday home game against Middle Tennessee. The city's not exactly going to be buzzing for the first 3/4 of October...hopefully, I suppose.

508-279. Son of a bitch.