SB Nation - Emmanuel Moody

The Fatal Flaws

mlmintampa — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 07:17:50 -0000

Hopefully, we are far enough out from the SEC Championship Game that we can take an level headed look at the 2009 Gators. As fans, we have seen a team that either was destroying people or not meeting our expectations. Considering the history of college football, 14-0 was a challenge unlikely to be met, especially with the bonus of three outright championships in four seasons. But we thought our boys could do it. Here's some things that I thought were never addressed or fixed and ultimately led to the Gators' fall. As always, tell us where we're wrong. Let's get the hard one out of the way first;

Tim Tebow: In each of his first three seasons, Tebow improved as a player. The problem was that as a senior, he was the same as the year before. Every team he faced knew exactly what he was doing. You saw the strategy Alabama used of daring Tebow to throw to receivers he never trusted behind a line that nearly killed him. Against Tennessee you saw how an NFL-style scheme (even without the talent to do it) could confuse Tebow. There are two reasons for this; either Tebow plateaued as a player or the loss of Dan Mullen impacted Tebow's preparation and chemistry with the offense.

Tebow was pulled in more directions this season. He wasn't just Tim Tebow, quarterback, Florida. He was a missionary, preacher, charity leader, university representative, oh and this was his senior year of college. Everyone is stretched thin in their senior year of school either because of school demands, the pressure of post-graduation or relationships. Tebow had all of that plus everything listed above. The problem is that Tebow wouldn't have it any other way. This season, I have a hard time thinking that everything else surrounding him didn't contribute to his actions on the field. He was still a college senior and no senior ever has a perfect year. Here's hoping that at least he doesn't knock a brick off Century Tower. (If you don't get that, look at the last urban legend listed here.)

Lack of a Go-To-Guy: Tebow needed a running mate this season and no one stepped up to fill that role. Aaron Hernandez had uneven performances and Riley Cooper could never get open before Tebow got in trouble. Cooper might have been the most well-rounded player on offense, but even he got the drops. Jeffrey Demps and Chris Rainey still struggle catching the ball and Brandon James was never going to be the solution at the Harvin position. Emmanuel Moody lived in Urban Meyer's doghouse all season. Carl Moore and Andre Debose never saw the field. That Florida ran the same offense as 2008, without a go-to-guy, is a failure of the coaching staff. Like Donald Rumsfled said, "You go to war with the Army you have. Not the Army you might want or wish to have." Meyer and Steve Addazio knew what they had in front of them and treated them like Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy with Jason Watkins and Phil Trautwein at the tackles. Which brings us to our next point...

Never figuring out the passing game: If yards and rushing yards stay relatively flat, how do touchdowns scored go from 75, 82 in 2008, to 56 this season? I pin the blame on not having a secure 3rd and 4th receiver and not securing the offensive tackle spots. I thought Xavier Nixon and Marcus Gilbert got it together, but it was late in the season before that lineup change was made. I don't blame the line for the 36 sacks (only 2 more than last season) because too often they had to face 5 and 6 man rushes. Teams could afford those blitzes because Florida's receiving options were Cooper, Hernandez and a bunch of nobodies. David Nelson had his best game against Alabama (4 catches, 53 yards, TD). That's nice, but Nelson was supposed to be a number 3 guy behind Cooper and Hernandez, but his output was no better than 2008 (23 catches, 254 yds, 2 TD in 2009; 12 catches, 228 yds, 5 TD in 2008). Deonte Thompson was supposed to explode this season, yet nearly had the exact same numbers. Demps still thinks run first, catch ball second. Rainey is skinner than I am and James was getting too many touches as a returner (62) to be fit enough to be a permanent player (20 rushes, 24 catches). We trusted that Meyer, Addazio and Billy Gonzales would see any red flags and immediately turn the Gators into Georgia Tech South. But they kept calling plays like they had four reliable receivers and two experienced tackles.

Steve Addazio, Offensive Coordinator and Offensive Line Coach: It does not matter if you liked Addazio's play calling or not. The fact is that he cannot do both jobs and I would be surprised if anyone could be o-line and coordinator. Offensive line is hands on, requiring the coach to be on the sidelines. Offensive coordinator is a mad genius, sitting in his box and designing plays like a chess player thinking three moves ahead. It didn't help that Florida's play calling by committee was like cooks spoiling the broth. Last year, the offense went through Mullen. You never knew who it went through this season.

A light defensive line: Just the presence of Terrence Cody kept UF away from the precious dive play. UF does not have a monster run stuffer like that (Omar Hunter may get there one day). Plus, Jermaine Cunningham and Carlos Dunlap are long and lean. They can run around you, but not through you. Were it not for Brandon Spikes, A.J. Jones and Ryan Stamper, UF would have been screwed at the front. The Gators got by like this until they ran into an old-school big ugly offensive line at Alabama. Like any great defense that relies on speed, a big line can always win. There wasn't much UF could have done here, aside from eight in the box, and Greg McElroy was too good for that.

The Fans: No one is escaping this. Every college team has good and bad fans, unemployed fans who stalk message boards all day, and the locker room stooges who get off on revealing who was tanked on Monday night and who has the girlfriend sleeping with half the defense. Every college team has jackasses who write blogs, guys who have only played video game football and claim they know what they are talking about, and old men trying to live vicariously through college kids. But we wore the crown, so we fall the hardest. It doesn't help either that we seemingly lost the ability to lose with class. I include myself in this because while this seems very mature and composed, during the game I was screaming obscenities at Nick Saban, my friends, Mark Ingram, "Sweet Home Alabama" (song, not the Reese Witherspoon movie), Tim Tebow, and the band Alabama. I was also figuring out how UF could win in the fourth quarter, when a rational person would have turned off the game and waited for Texas-Nebraska.

We've been spoiled the past four years and the sooner we realize that, the sooner we have some realistic expectations for the Gators. Eventually, Tennessee, FSU and Georgia will get good. Florida may actually lose consecutive games to these teams. Losing these games, if it happens, should not require you to threaten the lives of anyone or throw the Gators under the bus, via your facebook status or twitter. However, all bets are off if Urban Meyer becomes Ron Zook, but I don't see that happening. We need to be rational again, but mediocrity can never be tolerated.

The Confidence and Complacency of Champions: When the Yankees were losing Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to the Red Sox, Aaron Boone asked Derek Jeter why he was so calm. Jeter said, "The ghosts will come eventually." The ghosts did show up and Boone hit a game winning home run to send the Yanks to the World Series. The next season, the Yanks blew a 3-0 ALCS lead, and the Red Sox won the World Series, defeating the Curse of The Bambino in the process.

When you are defending champion, even if you are not considered to be the best team in your league the next season, there is a certain level of confidence in your team and what they can do. The Gators had won the SEC and National Championship twice in the last three seasons. There was no reason to doubt that they couldn't do it again. With that confidence also comes enough of a lack of drive that it can impact you negatively. You don't want to take those extra reps or spend 15 more minutes running routes. Sure, you can go to the party/Bible session/hookup with that chick from Plants, Plagues and People class, you'll just end your film study five minutes early. What's a few minutes anyway?

It all adds up eventually and for the Gators, it was 19 points in Atlanta. 19 points does not happen in one week of preparation, but over the course of the entire season. It's the reason why guys take extra sprints in August or lift more weights in April. Over the course of 11 months, the Gators were confident they could win no matter what and complacent enough to not put in more time. As for the party that ended Carlos Dunlap's season that included other teammates, let he who never took the edge off an upcoming test by drinking or fooling around with a lady cast the first stone. As for me, I think you got me confused for a better man.

Besides, Alabama played a perfect game. They had one penalty, were 11 of 15 on 3rd down, Bama held the ball for nearly 40 minutes, McElroy was 12 of 18 passing, and Marquis Maze's five catches for 96 yards made up for Julio Jones two catches for 28 yards. Florida could have spent the week in the football complex and St. Augustine's Church and they still would have lost. Give Alabama some credit.

As we said on Saturday, everything sucks now, but this still your team. You have to take the good with the bad and accept that sometimes, the other guy is better and you are not good enough. Time to look forward to next season and put your faith and trust in Urban Meyer. Especially that he finds a new defense and offensive coordinator. And say a prayer that John Brantley and Omarius Hines become the next great duo in Gainesville.

Three Keys for Alabama

Year2 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:00:15 -0000

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Get Mark Ingram going.

Last year, Glen Coffee was the man for Alabama. He ground out 112 yards on 21 carries, including a beastly 18 yard touchdown run for the Tide's first score of the game. He was an important factor in Alabama being able to run its offense the way it wanted to run it and control the game for much of the third quarter.

Ingram played in last year's game too, but he had just 21 yards on eight carries (2.6 average). Obviously he's greatly improved over his freshman self, but something about Florida's defense stymied him last year. He must find what Coffee found, because another 16 carry/30 yard effort will put Bama in seriously bad shape.

Stop Florida's running backs.

Dan Mullen kind of stole my thunder on this one already, but it's true. Jeff Demps is a threat to take it 50 yards. Chris Rainey can juke guys out of their jocks. Emmanuel Moody is averaging over seven yards per carry. Florida's got some very dangerous options at tailback.

On option plays, it would behoove the Tide to focus on those guys. As tempting as it is to try to take a shot at the Golden Boy, the Golden Boy has a far lower average and median rush than the other guys do. Most of Tim Tebow's longest runs come on busted pass plays or designed runs disguised as pass plays, and there's not much you can do about that. However, make him be the ball carrier on the standard running plays. He'll get some yards, but he won't take it half way down the field.

Put pressure on Tebow in the pocket.

Many defenses get confused on what stopping Tim Tebow actually means. You can tell who are the ones that don't know because they celebrate wildly for stopping Tebow on a two or three yard rush. That's not stopping him though; it's just a side effect of having a big dude at quarterback run some option. It's a known issue with the UF offense, and the game plan is built knowing that will happen about seven or eight times a game.

Stopping Tebow is pressuring him, forcing him to make bad decisions, and getting him to turn it over. Throughout his whole career, his worst games have come when he's getting sacked repeatedly. The Florida offensive line has been shaky at times, and it even has an obvious vulnerable point in true freshman LT Xavier Nixon. Nixon has done well so far, but he's still a true freshman and he can and will be beat.

Looking Ahead: The Return Of The Troubles

mlmintampa — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:27:47 -0000

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"These kids are spoiled. They don't know what it was like watching Ron Zook for three years."

As a Florida transplant, I wasn't a Real Gator Fan until I attended UF. The Gators were always my favorite college, but Danny Wuerffel and Steve Spurrier were as close to me as characters on a show. (Now I rip on current students for being lazy at games. I'm an old man.) It is one thing to attend games or watch on TV, but as a student, you see players walking around campus and going out. That exposed me to how unprofessional and unfocused the Zook Era was. How was Bubba Caldwell supposed to learn his playbook when he couldn't show up for the Age of Dinosaurs at 10:30am? Why should I have been surprised when UF blew a 23 point lead at Miami, when the players were more excited to go out the night before than playing in the game?

Those stories are few and far between now. College athletes will still skip out on class and everyone wants to go out on Friday night, but Urban Meyer's cultural change was a 180 from the Zook years. But those of us who were there wear the scars and remember the losses to inferior teams every time UF starts slow. I'm not trying to bring down the room, but Florida is looking at a 2010 season that looks more like Florida 2003 than Florida 2007.

Based on Meyer's comment that there are seven juniors that are "quality NFL players" and Jeremy Fowler's estimate of five guys, we will assume three guys; Carlos Dunlap, Joe Haden and Aaron Hernandez. All of them have an NFL body and NFL talent. There are always guys who leave after a championship who shouldn't, so we will include Emmanuel Moody, so would get more touches in the pros than in Gainesville.

Now include Tim Tebow, Riley Cooper, Jermaine Cunningham, Dustin Doe, Brandon James, David Nelson and Brandon Spikes. Throw in the loss of Charlie Strong and Steve Addazio (fingers crossed!), and you're looking at a legitimate rebuilding season.

I think most people trust John Brantley, but any concerns about the loss of Tebow was stifled by having a high quality backup. How many of you trust Jordan Reed to handle the ball next season? The defense should be ok, with enough guys in the pipeline to take over (Brendan Beal, Jelani Jenkins, we've seen Jaye Howard and Omar Hunter), but who would take Strong's duties? Even if you do trust Brantley, do you trust Andre Debose coming back from surgery, when it seems like every Florida player returning from surgery gets hurt again? (Cornelius Ingram, Dorian Munroe. Apparently UF's team surgeon uses push pins and Elmers' glue. The failure of those surgeries is a story on its own.) Plus, without Cooper and Hernandez, who is going to catch Brantley's rockets? I don't see UF wasting Brantley's arm and sticking with the running game like they have done this season. But I also don't see TJ Lawrence and Omarius Hines as the answer.

The cupboard isn't bare, but playing at Tennessee, at Alabama, at FSU and dealing with improved Georgia and LSU, Florida 2010 doesn't look good. Just something to think about between your weekly heart attacks during Gator games.

Countdown To Atlanta Death Match 2009

mlmintampa — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:03:38 -0000

It is a coincidence that Alabama and Florida are playing for the SEC Championship. Since divisional play began, Alabama has won seven SEC West titles and Florida has won ten SEC East titles, the top two in the Conference (including 2009). It is not surprising then that this will be the seventh time the teams have played for the SEC Championship, and the second time it has been in consecutive years (1992-94 were UF-Bama matchups as well).

It is fate though that the Gators and Tide are undefeated and ranked #1 and #2 in the BCS rankings. Both teams have their own pressures to deal with. Florida wears the crown of a champion, which at times has seemed to overwhelm their coaches and players. Alabama has the expectations of history, and the pressure seems to be gaining on them after the angst over their offensive woes, despite improving their total offense with a first year starter.

Urban Meyer and Nick Saban are both mercenaries, but have locked into posts where they can make or break their careers. Neither man can top their historic predecessors. But to a generation that will donate more money and follows college football with more passion and intelligence than their parents, they will be the pinnacle of their schools.

Florida does not have Mark Ingram and Bama does not have Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey or Emmanuel Moody. Bama does not have Tim Tebow and Florida does not have Julio Jones. Both teams still have defenses that prop up offenses that cannot score or kick too many field goals. Just like two heavyweights, it may not be pretty, but they will pound you into submission.

And just like two heavyweights, they will have to go through a few tomato cans before their unification bout. Florida, for all the talk about a terrible offense, has won 8 of 9 games this season by double digits. Now, they get a South Carolina team that hasn't scored more than 20 points in a month and lost 3 of their last 4. After a bye week against Florida International, they get FSU, which cannot win since they are too busy trying to pull a coup on their head coach.

Bama destroyed people in their first seven games, before needing Terrence Cody's big paws and Leigh Tiffin's big leg to defeat Tennessee. A bye week was supposed to fix all the offense's woes. Yet, the Tide was losing entering the 4^th quarter against LSU, before two field goals and a Jones TD and conversion sealed it for Bama. They face Mississippi State, who is not scared of anybody, then a bye week against Chattanooga. Bama then gets Auburn, who has scored 96 points in their last two games (wins) after scoring only 47 in their previous three games (losses).

Both fan bases alternate between various levels of panic and booking flights to Los Angeles on Orbitz. Both fan bases think the other is nothing but white trash or high and mighty snobs. Florida fans wonder if Bama fans will just drive their house to Pasadena, and Bama fans will reply that at least the bank doesn't own their home.

Of course, the Gators and Tide have to hold up their ends of the bargain and not slip before getting to the Atlanta Death Match 2009. Players have to avoid getting high on weed or tryptophan, and watch out for cousins giving them pills and NFL players recruiting for agents. Coaches have to game plan for everything or remove their head out of their ass. Florida has been under huge pressure all season. With the date set in Atlanta, Bama will get a taste of that same pressure too for the next three weeks.

The next four weeks will be cruel on fans and players. One loss will end a season, either now or in Atlanta. But we would not want it any other way. Only 27 days...

A Crisis Of Confidence

mlmintampa — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:58:04 -0000

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During the Arkansas game, Urban Meyer was shown several times from the side and back of his head. He is only 45 years old, yet is graying at a pace of a man much older. Following the game, Steve Addazio leveled the blame for Florida's struggles on his players, despite a Chinese fire drill of a final drive that was on the backs of Tim Tebow (22 yards rushing), Jeff Demps (17 yards rushing) and Riley Cooper (30 yards receiving). It was not genius playcalling that got the Gators down the field. The weak playcalling and response by the Gators over the last few weeks has knocked this team from the AP Number One spot. Yes, it is a symbolic ranking, but symbols mean something.

It also means something when your quarterback, Tim Tebow, has touches on 209 of 410 offensive plays. You have no confidence in anyone around him. It means something when your only big back, Emmanuel Moody, has 27 carries, despite a desire to run the same dive play with your track stars. You have no confidence in Moody.

It also means something when Florida is on pace to have about 23 pass attempts, same as 2008, but with less effectiveness. Or that Florida is playing well, but not closing the deal when it counts. Like typical Florida fans, we watch every game, wondering when the ceiling will fall in and our run to Pasadena will end in a smoking wreck on I-75. And it does not help us to see our offensive coordinator trying to call plays from inside his ass and our coach looking like he has aged 10 years in the past 10 weeks.

The fact is that Florida is doing what it needs to do to win. We don't know yet if they can win a shootout, but they can win a slugfest (Tennessee), crush throats (LSU) and win ugly (Arkansas). Alabama has already done this and they will probably murder Tennessee this weekend too. Florida needs a big number at Mississippi State, 30-40 points, to prove they are not trying to give the least amount of effort for the greatest gain. Because that crap won't fly next week against a rested Georgia.

As it is right now, Florida cannot win a National Championship. Championship teams are cold blooded assassins. Florida has guys who can do that and those were the guys against Arkansas who flipped the switch and won the game. But that feeling of confidence, that feeling of "We will destroy all," is lacking. Maybe is that Florida is without Percy Harvin, or that it looked like Tebow was dead for about five minutes at Kentucky. The kevlar vest has been dented a few times and it's hard to get over that. The Gators have to get over it now because not only do they still wear the crown, the bullseye on their back says "Kick Me" and Dan Mullen, Mark Richt and Nick Saban are waiting for their chance.

For the Gators to repeat as National Champions, it will take an effort far greater than last year's run. It takes more than skill and experience to do it. It takes confidence. We need to see that this weekend and especially at Jacksonville.

Know Your Opponent: Florida Gators

jeremyflint — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:45:30 -0000

Now that we are back into SEC play, it is easy to find qualified bloggers that will do a Q & A about the upcoming game with you. To prep for the match-up against the Florida Gators this Saturday, I sent a few questions over to fellow SBNation blog Alligator Army. Here are their answers.

Note: When my answers to their questions are posted, I will update this post with a link.

1. After racking up big points in non-conference play early in the season, the Gators have had low scoring games against a terrible Tennessee team, as well as at LSU and against Arkansas. Is this just the offense running up against stiffer defensive challengers as Florida gets into the heart of SEC play, or is it a lack of play makers on offense aside from Tebow?

It is a lack of guys who can catch the ball and an offensive coordinator who is in over his head. Tennessee and LSU have very good defenses and Arkansas forced four fumbles, but Florida was never comfortable in those games. That's the biggest difference. I think a lot of Gator fans would take an Alabama-style beatdown (win by 21 but allow less than 10) because Alabama looks damn good even scoring less than 28 points.

2. Speaking of offense, Percy Harvin left a pretty big whole in the Gator offense after his departure to the NFL. Who has stepped in to fill those shoes and how are they measuring up?

Tim Tebow has stepped up. Seriously, they knew UF would be in trouble without Harvin and Louis Murphy, 2008's top recievers. WR Riley Cooper has played well in spots and TE Aaron Hernandez is an NFL-ready tight end, but that's it. When you promote your 3 and 4 men to 1 and 2, with no one to fill in at 3 and 4, you are in trouble. Florida still has great backs in Jeff Demps, Emmanuel Moody and Chris Rainey, but they are not pass catchers. RB Brandon James has been used in the slot, but he is struggling as he has gone from a game changing returner to nothing on special teams.

3. Brandon Spikes is one of the most terrifying defensive players I have seen in this SEC this year. He suffered an injury in the game against Arkansas. Will he miss the Mississippi State game and what effect will that have on your defense.

He is reported to be healthy enough for the Miss State game. Spikes has struggled with Achilles' tendonitis and now a groin pull, but he should be fine. Aside from guys out for the season, Florida should have a full staff. But Florida is deep on defense, unless the offense puts the ball on the floor four times and they have to take the field every two minutes.

4. Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen has worked with Florida HC Urban Meyer since he was at Bowling Green. Does his familiarity with the Gator's offense give the Bulldogs an advantage going in to this game?

Huge advantage, especially that Florida's current offensive coordinator, Steve Addazio, calls games like an eight-year old on Madden. I'm sure the signals have changed as Meyer is detail orientated and would guess Mullen would try to get the signals. But Mullen's familaritity makes this less of a blowout possibility.

5. The Gators are 0-4 in their last 4 trips to Starkville. Will the Gators break that streak or will the Bulldogs push Florida out of the #1 slot in the polls?

I think Florida wins. Compared to the other trips to Starkville, Zook was an unfocused dumbass and Florida's other losses were not with teams as good as this one. Yes, Mississippi State could win, and I think Mullen will build a decent program. But they won't beat Florida this season.

What Would the John Brantley Offense Look Like?

Year2 — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 04:00:20 -0000

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Tim Tebow is going to be a game time decision (*or maybe not), but there still is a chance that he will not play. We might get an advance screening of what the post-Tebow era will look like with John Brantley running the show.

Now, it's impossible to say exactly what we'll see since Brantley hasn't played a snap during a close game yet, but I went through his appearances so far this year to see how the coaches used him in the offense. I'm not focusing on production in terms of yards or points, since it all came in garbage time. Rather, here's just a sampling of how things change with him under center.

Play Calling

This year, the offense has centered around running more than it has in the past. Just look at the Florida-Tennessee game: 19 pass attempts versus 44 rushing attempts. It's a run-heavy attack.

Brantley is more of a passer, and that bears out in the play selection. I went through all of his plays and charted out the run/pass mix. This includes plays that were called back for penalties, and if a play was supposed to be a pass but ended up a scramble, it still counts as a pass. Here's how it broke down:

Team	Rush	Pass
CSU	18	13
Troy	11	13
Kentucky	9	7
TOTAL	38	33

Note: this does not include the final drive against Kentucky, which was just six handoffs to kill the clock.

There still is a preference for run over passing, but it's nowhere near as pronounced. The play calling comes a lot closer to being balanced, and that fact makes Deonte Thompson's return to the lineup this week all the more important. While most folks have focused on Tebow's status (and for good reason), the second most important story for UF this weekend is Thompson's return. The passing offense opens up considerably with him in there, and that's huge if Brantley is indeed the one to start.

Short Yardage

Tebow is the standard short yardage back. If he's out, then they've got to do something else, right? While charting play selection, I also kept track of what happened on third or fourth and short (three or fewer yards to go). The choices were as follows:

Roll out pass: two attempts, two conversions
Drop back pass: one attempt, one conversion
Chris Rainey up the middle: two attempts, one conversion
Jeff Demps up the middle: one attempt, one conversion
Mike Gillislee up the middle: one attempt, one conversion

Of the seven short yardage scenarios, there were four runs and three passes. All of the passes worked, and all but one run worked. Rainey up the middle doesn't generally work on third and short regardless, so seeing a failed attempt there is not surprising. You can also just use Gillislee as a proxy for Emmanuel Moody as they are both big backs, but Moody's day was done against Charleston Southern when Gillislee got his third and short carry.

Seven is not a tremendously large sample size, but with Brantley in the game, third and short is not an automatic quarterback dive. Look for play action roll out passes.

Aesthetics

The most obvious difference with the Brantley package is the I-formation. Here it is against Troy with Rainey as the tailback. We heard in the preseason that Tebow was going to run some plays from it, but he's yet to do so. With Brantley in however, it makes regular appearances. Watch out for ball security with it though - Brantley fumbled the center exchange against Kentucky and the Wildcats recovered. Center Maurkice Pouncey isn't used to doing a lot of under center snaps.

While Brantley does have a good arm and he throws a nice ball, they didn't take too many downfield shots against the tomato cans. Most of his work was done in the short and intermediate range with only a couple bombs (most of which were very inaccurate) mixed in. He rolled out on after play action quite a bit, although that just could have been because he was playing behind a line composed entirely of true freshman most of the time. Against Kentucky, he threw what felt like the first fade route since the Zook era, so that's back in the red zone playbook as well.

The offense still uses option plays, though not a whole lot of speed option. It's mostly zone read option plays, and Brantley will occasionally keep on those. It can be difficult to tell when something is an option play or not because he bootlegs out and fakes a run on every hand off whether it was an option play or not. Just something to keep the defense honest.

What About LSU?

It's a fair bet that if Brantley gets the start, there will be a lot of run plays called to take some pressure off of the guy getting his first start and put the pressure on the veteran line and backs. However there still will be quite a bit of throwing, more than when Tebow is in at least, because that's what Brantley does best. If Florida's line has any trouble dealing with LSU's front seven, I think we'll see a lot of those play action roll out passes that were prominent in his previous appearances.

On short yardage, there will probably be about as many screens as running back dives. The option game should be interesting to watch as well, since Brantley has done almost no speed option this year and folks seem to be expecting a lot of that. A better bet would be zone read option plays. Even though Brantley isn't a big and tough runner like Tebow and doesn't have wheels like Pat White, he's still plenty mobile.

All of this could be moot if Tebow plays. I'd bet this is what we'll see from the Gator offense if he doesn't though.

Florida Preview

Richard Pittman — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:08:38 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

2 months ago: FILE - In this Sept. 12, 2009 file photo, Florida quarterback John Brantley warms up prior to an NCAA college football game against Troy in Gainesville, Fla. Florida quarterback Tim Tebow isn't cleared to play next week at LSU, the top-ranked Gators would turn the offense over to John Brantley. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

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I'm going to just come out and say it. We don't need to win this game. A win would be a big boon to the team's psyche. It would put us firmly in the media spotlight and make people talk about us as a true national championship contender, but we in no way, shape, or form need to win this game. Win or lose, we control our destiny in the SEC West race. We will win the West if we win out after Florida, and we probably need to win out regardless of what happens this week. We are generally expected to lose, and our press reports suck out loud already, so unless we get blown out we aren't going to suffer in the media. All that combines to tell me that this is probably the least important game on our schedule.

On the other hand, a win sure would be great. A loss represents only a lost opportunity for a win, rather than a genuinely damaging result for the team. It's rare you can say that about a game, but this is one of those. We can come out and play a game against a good opponent with really no pressure on us to actually win. That's what the win against Georgia did for us. It gave us license to go into the Florida game loose, playing like a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain, because this time it is true.

Also, we hate to make predictions here, but let me break from type just for one paragraph. I predict that Tim Tebow is not playing against us. Everything I know about concussions, and everything I saw about the hit Tebow took against Kentucky tells me that it is simply unrealistic for him to even think about returning this week. Next week is probably unlikely as well. I wouldn't expect him back before the October 24 game against Mississippi State. Any sooner than that, and Tebow would risk doing substantial, permanent damage to his brain. Nothing in the world is worth that.

This means one thing when it comes to previewing Florida. We know very little about what we're going to see when Florida has the ball. It would be incorrect to say that Florida has been a one-man offense; they have good players sprinkled throughout their offensive lineup, but everything about the Florida offense for the last 2 1/2 years has revolved around Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow throws. Tim Tebow runs. Tim Tebow executes the option. Everything is either Tim Tebow taking the ball himself, or Tim Tebow deciding what to do with it. The plays in which Tim Tebow is called upon to simply give the ball to someone else without having to make a decision about it first has probably accounted for less than 25% of Florida's plays in meaningful situations since Tebow became their starting quarterback. Since the loss of Percy Harvin to the NFL, it has probably been more. If he is really out, and I would be shocked if he isn't, the entire character of the Florida offense will have to change to accommodate a quarterback with a completely different skill-set.

What of John Brantley? He has completed 73% of his passes this year, with a 7.73 yard average per attempt, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 44 yards rushing in 10 attempts. Certainly admirable statistics for a backup quarterback, but most of those stats were accumulated against Charleston Southern and Troy. It is not like he has faced an opponent on the level of an LSU yet. What's more, he will have to do it with a receiver corps that is coming under fire for not making enough plays, even with Tim Tebow throwing to them.

To take nothing away from John Brantley, who is a promising young quarterback in his own right, the Tebow-less Florida offense is an offense that can be stopped if we play up to our ability, especially if we can discover a pass rush. There is not a traditional running back, as pint sized speedsters Jeffrey Demps and Chris Rainey are 1st and 3rd on the team in rushing yards, respectively, with Tebow sandwiched between them. Tebow is their power back, a role that would have to be taken up by Emmanuel Moody, which will make Florida's offense highly dependent on personnel groupings and rob Florida of the unpredictability that they have used to advantage in the past.

Let's be clear. The Florida offense without Tim Tebow is still dangerous. There is still a very good offensive line there, and fast running backs, and Aaron Hernandez, and Riley Cooper, but Tim Tebow is not called arguably the best college football player in a generation because he's so easily replaced. So you can throw Florida's #1 rated scoring offense and #1 rated total offense out the window and officially say that we don't know how good this offense will be.

The defense, however? Tim Tebow had no effect on that defense, at least not directly, and it's the #1 rated scoring defense and #1 rated total defense too. Then again, they've done it against arguably the weakest competition any SEC team has faced so far. Charleston Southern, Troy, a Tennessee team that appeared only interested in beating the point spread, and Kentucky. That is far from a murderer's row to start the season, and I feel OK saying that LSU is a lot better than any of those teams, despite our well-documented problems.

But make no mistake, there are some outstanding players on that defense, starting with middle linebacker Brandon Spikes. Of course, we remember him from his interceptions last year. Their secondary, which was so young two years ago, is now filled with fully developed NFL prospects like Joe Haden, Janoris Jenkins, and Ahmad Black, which has led to the Gators having the #1 pass defense and the #1 pass efficiency defense in the conference.

If there is a weakness there, you can consider that, like LSU, Florida is not getting the sacks on the quarterback. We're giving them up, and Florida's not getting them, so something has to break there. Then again, Florida is getting almost twice as many sacks per game as we are: 1.75 per game vs. 1 per game.

So strangely enough, the #1 team in the country and defending national champion comes to Baton Rouge as a bit of a mystery. We don't officially know if their All-American quarterback is playing, though we can make an educated guess that he isn't. Without him, we're not sure what kind of a team they bring onto the field when they have the ball. On defense, they are certainly very good, but it's hard to say with any confidence that they are great. We will have to see, but whatever happens, the season continues on with full confidence. I could not have said the same thing last week.

Saturday Lessons: September 26

Year2 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 11:00:33 -0000

by James Crisp - AP

Ouch.

View full size photo »

Superman is not indestructible.

In the end, no one will remember the 41-7 final score, the 31-0 first quarter score, or the avalanche of yellow flags and mistakes that Kentucky ultimately fell under. It's the Tebow Got Hurt Game now, two years after he sustained a bad shoulder injury in Lexington that didn't get surgically fixed until after the 2008 season. For two weeks we'll hear questions about why Urban Meyer didn't pull his quarterback sooner, but he never has pulled Tebow in similar situations in the past. The only irony is that the big knockout hit did not come on a run, as his detractors have predicted for three years, but on a pocket pass that they've been saying he needed to do more of all along.

As for on the field things, the Gator offense is an entirely different animal with a healthy Jeffrey Demps. Emmanuel Moody also continued to impress, but he had a curiously low five carries on the night. That is, it would be curious if it didn't happen every week.

Texas found its groove.

Not that UTEP is any good, but Texas seriously put on a show. The Longhorns scored 64 points, rolled up 639 yards, and held the Miners to 53 total yards. UTEP was a paltry one of 12 on third down and the only score was on a pick six of Colt McCoy. We knew the offense would be good, but so far the defense is looking good too.

Alabama is a very complete team.

I guess we could say we knew that, but it all was on display as Alabama really controlled its game with Arkansas from beginning to end. For all the love showered on Ryan Mallett, who appears to be Gary Danielson's new secondary crush (behind Tebow, his primary) now that Matthew Stafford is in the NFL, Greg McElroy was by far the best quarterback in the game.

Mark Ingram and Terry Grant never really got on track on the ground, but Trent Richardson picked up some slack and with McElory going bombs away against a bad Arkansas pass defense, it never mattered. The Tide defense was also impressive, holding the potent Hogs to seven points and 254 total yards. This team doesn't appear to have too many weaknesses.

The top ten will be a revolving door all year.

Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, USC, BYU, Ole Miss, Cal, Miami, and Penn State have all lost as top ten teams in the AP Poll. This is only one month into the season. On the one hand, BYU and Miami earned their way in thanks to big wins and some surprisingly resume-based voting from the pollsters, and VT and Ohio State lost to fellow top ten teams. On the other, teams like Oklahoma State and Ole Miss lost to expose faulty preseason analysis.

Now look at who's likely to be in the new top ten. Does anyone think LSU will be in it for long after some less than impressive performances? Does Boise State have the kind of schedule that supports them sitting up this high all season? Can Virginia Tech really run the table in the still-crazy ACC? Does Ohio State have enough offense to justify being there? We're just going to keep going through this over and over all year long.

The SEC West is more competitive than we know.

Alabama at this point is by far the best team, but with Ole Miss falling back to the pack and Mississippi State giving LSU a bona fide scare, everyone in the division has at least looked decent at some point this year. I mean, Arkansas exploded against Georgia, and Auburn rolled up 50+ this week for the first time in years after taking down West Virginia. The whole thing is a jumbled mess, but for the most part in a good way. It's not that everyone is bad, it's that more are good than we thought. This could be a really wild race down the stretch.

Arizona State still has no answer for A.J. Green.

174 yards on just eight catches. A grab to set up the game winning field goal. You can't ask for much more from A.J. Green, who is by far the best player on Georgia's team. The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils badly, but three turnovers kept this one closer for longer than it probably should have been. Georgia is just like FSU and South Carolina at this point, in that we don't know which team is going to show up to each game. At least with the Bulldogs, we know they'll probably win.

There's nothing easy left for Tennessee.

The Vols had to outlast a very game Ohio Bobcats team to pull out their second victory of the year. It's encouraging that Jonathan Crompton was able to go 34 attempts with just one pick, but his 6.5 yards per pass average isn't stellar. The 34-23 score was not misleading, as Tennessee outgained Ohio 399-340, though it is strange that the Vols gave up 319 passing yards a week after shutting down Florida's passing attack. The real concern is injuries now, and the fact it took four quarters to put away a team that needed overtime to beat North Texas.

Survive and advance.

That's the new motto for everyone this year. Maybe we are reliving 2007 after all.

Three We Need To Trust For Saturday

mlmintampa — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 04:36:06 -0000

Saturday's game against Kentucky will be one day short of the year anniversary of Florida's loss to Ole Miss. Since then, the fortunes and scope of Florida Football has changed for the better. But that was also a perfect storm, as Texas, Penn State, USC and Alabama all lost, creating a cluster of one loss teams. Florida's charge following the Ole Miss game, and defeating the No. 1 team in the nation in consecutive games, finally secured them the No. 1 ranking. If you expect the same results in 2009, should Florida lose, you'll be wrong. There is no requirement that a defending champion gets to defend their title.

That is why Florida may have to lean on three of their healthiest guys right now as the team fights off the flu bug to end all flu bugs. Those guys are Tim Tebow (mildly shocking, I know), Brandon James (again, shocking), and Emmanuel Moody (wait, what?). I'm still upset at the quality of play calls in the Tennessee game, but with the flu bug spreading from students and into the football complex, not taking shots downfield and using your senior quarterback with 100,000 miles on the odometer seems like a good idea. Of course, in regards to Tebow, that should not be happening. That is why Brandon James, at least until the flu bug stops, needs to be the featured back. He is far more valuable on offense rather than splitting time on special teams. If Florida is supposed to have all these fast dudes, there should be someone to fill James' role on returns.

In addition, the push-and-pull around Moody's playing time is an embarassment. Moody has 7% of the touches this season (14 of 180; 7% is the same percentage as last year) and is a big back who can move the pile. His run against Tennessee proved that. Yet, Moody is being held out for either not being ready, not being healthy, or as a pawn in Urban Meyer's head games. Hopefully, it's not any of the three. With Moody not being used and James used even less (8 of 180 possible touches, plus 13 returns), it's time for Florida to start getting creative. If they want to control the clock and avoid pitching it to sick or inexperienced wides, that's fine. But safe is death and Florida is not in a position to think the same ideas will win again.