SB Nation - Jeffrey Demps

The Fatal Flaws

mlmintampa — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 07:17:50 -0000

Hopefully, we are far enough out from the SEC Championship Game that we can take an level headed look at the 2009 Gators. As fans, we have seen a team that either was destroying people or not meeting our expectations. Considering the history of college football, 14-0 was a challenge unlikely to be met, especially with the bonus of three outright championships in four seasons. But we thought our boys could do it. Here's some things that I thought were never addressed or fixed and ultimately led to the Gators' fall. As always, tell us where we're wrong. Let's get the hard one out of the way first;

Tim Tebow: In each of his first three seasons, Tebow improved as a player. The problem was that as a senior, he was the same as the year before. Every team he faced knew exactly what he was doing. You saw the strategy Alabama used of daring Tebow to throw to receivers he never trusted behind a line that nearly killed him. Against Tennessee you saw how an NFL-style scheme (even without the talent to do it) could confuse Tebow. There are two reasons for this; either Tebow plateaued as a player or the loss of Dan Mullen impacted Tebow's preparation and chemistry with the offense.

Tebow was pulled in more directions this season. He wasn't just Tim Tebow, quarterback, Florida. He was a missionary, preacher, charity leader, university representative, oh and this was his senior year of college. Everyone is stretched thin in their senior year of school either because of school demands, the pressure of post-graduation or relationships. Tebow had all of that plus everything listed above. The problem is that Tebow wouldn't have it any other way. This season, I have a hard time thinking that everything else surrounding him didn't contribute to his actions on the field. He was still a college senior and no senior ever has a perfect year. Here's hoping that at least he doesn't knock a brick off Century Tower. (If you don't get that, look at the last urban legend listed here.)

Lack of a Go-To-Guy: Tebow needed a running mate this season and no one stepped up to fill that role. Aaron Hernandez had uneven performances and Riley Cooper could never get open before Tebow got in trouble. Cooper might have been the most well-rounded player on offense, but even he got the drops. Jeffrey Demps and Chris Rainey still struggle catching the ball and Brandon James was never going to be the solution at the Harvin position. Emmanuel Moody lived in Urban Meyer's doghouse all season. Carl Moore and Andre Debose never saw the field. That Florida ran the same offense as 2008, without a go-to-guy, is a failure of the coaching staff. Like Donald Rumsfled said, "You go to war with the Army you have. Not the Army you might want or wish to have." Meyer and Steve Addazio knew what they had in front of them and treated them like Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy with Jason Watkins and Phil Trautwein at the tackles. Which brings us to our next point...

Never figuring out the passing game: If yards and rushing yards stay relatively flat, how do touchdowns scored go from 75, 82 in 2008, to 56 this season? I pin the blame on not having a secure 3rd and 4th receiver and not securing the offensive tackle spots. I thought Xavier Nixon and Marcus Gilbert got it together, but it was late in the season before that lineup change was made. I don't blame the line for the 36 sacks (only 2 more than last season) because too often they had to face 5 and 6 man rushes. Teams could afford those blitzes because Florida's receiving options were Cooper, Hernandez and a bunch of nobodies. David Nelson had his best game against Alabama (4 catches, 53 yards, TD). That's nice, but Nelson was supposed to be a number 3 guy behind Cooper and Hernandez, but his output was no better than 2008 (23 catches, 254 yds, 2 TD in 2009; 12 catches, 228 yds, 5 TD in 2008). Deonte Thompson was supposed to explode this season, yet nearly had the exact same numbers. Demps still thinks run first, catch ball second. Rainey is skinner than I am and James was getting too many touches as a returner (62) to be fit enough to be a permanent player (20 rushes, 24 catches). We trusted that Meyer, Addazio and Billy Gonzales would see any red flags and immediately turn the Gators into Georgia Tech South. But they kept calling plays like they had four reliable receivers and two experienced tackles.

Steve Addazio, Offensive Coordinator and Offensive Line Coach: It does not matter if you liked Addazio's play calling or not. The fact is that he cannot do both jobs and I would be surprised if anyone could be o-line and coordinator. Offensive line is hands on, requiring the coach to be on the sidelines. Offensive coordinator is a mad genius, sitting in his box and designing plays like a chess player thinking three moves ahead. It didn't help that Florida's play calling by committee was like cooks spoiling the broth. Last year, the offense went through Mullen. You never knew who it went through this season.

A light defensive line: Just the presence of Terrence Cody kept UF away from the precious dive play. UF does not have a monster run stuffer like that (Omar Hunter may get there one day). Plus, Jermaine Cunningham and Carlos Dunlap are long and lean. They can run around you, but not through you. Were it not for Brandon Spikes, A.J. Jones and Ryan Stamper, UF would have been screwed at the front. The Gators got by like this until they ran into an old-school big ugly offensive line at Alabama. Like any great defense that relies on speed, a big line can always win. There wasn't much UF could have done here, aside from eight in the box, and Greg McElroy was too good for that.

The Fans: No one is escaping this. Every college team has good and bad fans, unemployed fans who stalk message boards all day, and the locker room stooges who get off on revealing who was tanked on Monday night and who has the girlfriend sleeping with half the defense. Every college team has jackasses who write blogs, guys who have only played video game football and claim they know what they are talking about, and old men trying to live vicariously through college kids. But we wore the crown, so we fall the hardest. It doesn't help either that we seemingly lost the ability to lose with class. I include myself in this because while this seems very mature and composed, during the game I was screaming obscenities at Nick Saban, my friends, Mark Ingram, "Sweet Home Alabama" (song, not the Reese Witherspoon movie), Tim Tebow, and the band Alabama. I was also figuring out how UF could win in the fourth quarter, when a rational person would have turned off the game and waited for Texas-Nebraska.

We've been spoiled the past four years and the sooner we realize that, the sooner we have some realistic expectations for the Gators. Eventually, Tennessee, FSU and Georgia will get good. Florida may actually lose consecutive games to these teams. Losing these games, if it happens, should not require you to threaten the lives of anyone or throw the Gators under the bus, via your facebook status or twitter. However, all bets are off if Urban Meyer becomes Ron Zook, but I don't see that happening. We need to be rational again, but mediocrity can never be tolerated.

The Confidence and Complacency of Champions: When the Yankees were losing Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to the Red Sox, Aaron Boone asked Derek Jeter why he was so calm. Jeter said, "The ghosts will come eventually." The ghosts did show up and Boone hit a game winning home run to send the Yanks to the World Series. The next season, the Yanks blew a 3-0 ALCS lead, and the Red Sox won the World Series, defeating the Curse of The Bambino in the process.

When you are defending champion, even if you are not considered to be the best team in your league the next season, there is a certain level of confidence in your team and what they can do. The Gators had won the SEC and National Championship twice in the last three seasons. There was no reason to doubt that they couldn't do it again. With that confidence also comes enough of a lack of drive that it can impact you negatively. You don't want to take those extra reps or spend 15 more minutes running routes. Sure, you can go to the party/Bible session/hookup with that chick from Plants, Plagues and People class, you'll just end your film study five minutes early. What's a few minutes anyway?

It all adds up eventually and for the Gators, it was 19 points in Atlanta. 19 points does not happen in one week of preparation, but over the course of the entire season. It's the reason why guys take extra sprints in August or lift more weights in April. Over the course of 11 months, the Gators were confident they could win no matter what and complacent enough to not put in more time. As for the party that ended Carlos Dunlap's season that included other teammates, let he who never took the edge off an upcoming test by drinking or fooling around with a lady cast the first stone. As for me, I think you got me confused for a better man.

Besides, Alabama played a perfect game. They had one penalty, were 11 of 15 on 3rd down, Bama held the ball for nearly 40 minutes, McElroy was 12 of 18 passing, and Marquis Maze's five catches for 96 yards made up for Julio Jones two catches for 28 yards. Florida could have spent the week in the football complex and St. Augustine's Church and they still would have lost. Give Alabama some credit.

As we said on Saturday, everything sucks now, but this still your team. You have to take the good with the bad and accept that sometimes, the other guy is better and you are not good enough. Time to look forward to next season and put your faith and trust in Urban Meyer. Especially that he finds a new defense and offensive coordinator. And say a prayer that John Brantley and Omarius Hines become the next great duo in Gainesville.

Alabama & Florida Common Opponents: Tennessee

Year2 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:24:12 -0000

As a part of SEC Championship Game week, we're taking a look at Alabama's and Florida's common opponents in alphabetical order. In closing: Tennessee.

	Alabama	Florida
Game Number	8	3
Score	12-10	23-13
Passing Yards	120	115
Rushing Yards	136	208
Total Yards	256	323
Passing All.	265	93
Rushing All.	76	117
Total Defense	341	210
3rd Downs	5-14	8-13
3rd Down Def.	6-15	5-12
Turnover Margin	Even	Even

Alabama lined up against Tennessee as probably a tired team, as it was the Tide's eighth consecutive game and came the week before Bama's bye. It was a day for those who love kickers, as the teams combined for eight field goal attempts. Leigh Tiffin made all of his while Daniel Lincoln started just one of three, allowing Bama to build a safe-looking 12-3 lead. The Tide looked like it was simply going to run the clock out when the unthinkable happened: Mark Ingram fumbled, setting up the Vols 43 yards from pay dirt. Jonathan Crompton went 4 for 4 for 42 yards on the ensuring drive that pulled UT within 2. After recovering the onside kick, Tennessee played for a field goal but the try was blocked by Terrence Cody.

Florida faced off against Tennessee after winning two easy blowouts over Charleston Southern and Troy, but strangely not healthy for that early in the season. Deonte Thompson missed the game with a bad hamstring, while Jeff Demps and Aaron Hernandez were slowed by a flu-like bug that was beginning to sweep through the team. As a result, Urban Meyer put all the offensive burden on Tim Tebow, who passed or ran on 43 of Florida's 63 plays. UF was cruising up 23-6 when Tebow fumbled in the shadow of Tennessee's goal line. UT turned that into points, but an Ahmad Black interception with about two minutes to go sealed Florida's win.

I called the Alabama-Tennessee game boring at the time, and received a bit of flak for it. True, I don't appreciate defensive struggles as much as some folks do. In any event, this would have been a much different game had Lincoln made his field goals throughout. Cody actually blocked the final two of Lincoln's four attempts, and he didn't even leave the ground on the last one. That's a sure sign of a guy kicking it too low. Anyway, Tennessee wouldn't have had the chance to win it at the end without the first fumble of Ingram's career. Nick Saban said it best: "You're controlling a game, even though you may say it's winning ugly. We're still ahead 12-3 and totally controlling the game with 3 minutes, 29 seconds and the ball. That's how fragile a season can be."

Florida's game with Tennessee looked like it was going the way of the 2008 game. Tebow was about ready to put the Gators up 31-6 at the time of his fumble, a shade off of last year's 30-6 final score. Tennessee, and especially Crompton, was clearly not comfortable yet in its new offense, opting to go for a low risk, game-shortening strategy of heavy running. Florida's defense was ready for it, allowing just one drive of more than 50 yards and only three points that didn't come off of turnovers. We didn't know it at the time, but this game revealed what would become Meyer's strategy all season long: get a lead, play it conservative, and let the defense win games. It's worked out well so far.

Hard as it is to deny a moment that will forever be remembered in Daniel Moore's brush strokes, Florida had the better game against Tennessee. Bama was outgained by nearly 100 yards and needed heroics at the end to pull out the win. Florida allowed some points late that ultimately were cosmetic, making the score look better for the Vols, but the Gators outgained UT by more than 110 yards. Florida-Tennessee might have played out differently later in the season once the Lane Kiffin offense was fully operational and Crompton had regained his confidence. On the third week of the season, it was not to be for the Knoxville contingent.

Better performance: Florida.

See also: Arkansas, FIU, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina.

All My Gators

mlmintampa — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:28:20 -0000

More photos » by Phil Sandlin - AP

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Saturday will be the 13th episode of "All My Gators," the Florida Gators season long soap opera. After twelve weeks of a chaotic home life in Gainesville and enemies tracking them across the Southeast, there is one more episode in Atlanta. That is if they want to make the big move to Los Angeles. Let's revisit the story lines from each episode;

Episode 1: Tim Tebow and Brandon Spikes return to Gainesville for a chance at another championship. But will Tim and Urban Meyer be successful with new business partner Steve Addazio? Charleston Southern guest stars.

Episode 2: The Troy Trojans come to Gainesville, but all eyes are on a new Gainesville resident; Andre Debose. Tragedy strikes the young man as he enters surgery to repair his hamstring. Dr. Pete Indelicato guest stars as the team doctor with a wallet of gold and the hands of Michael J. Fox.

Episode 3: The dashing and bombastic Lane Kiffin comes to Gainesville, desperate to break Urban's hold on the SEC East. Lane is not successful, but he worries Gainesville's citizens. Monte Kiffin guest stars as Lane's elderly father.

Episode 4: A mysterious illness plagues the team as Jeffrey Demps, Aaron Hernandez and Jermaine Cunningham are stricken. Gainesville citizens are stunned when Tim is infected as well. But worry turns to horror as Tim is nearly killed during the trip to Lexington. Rich Brooks guest stars as the gruff Kentucky leader with a secret past.

Episode 5: Tim makes a miraculous return, leading the Gators into the bayou against crazed rival Les Miles and Louisiana State. Tim is finally successful in a city that had painfully defeated him in 2007. John Brantley guest stars as the young man who wants a chance to shine.

Episode 6: There are problems back home as Tim and Chris Rainey come down with fumblitis. The defense struggles as Janoris Jenkins is abused by Arkansas and Ryan Mallett. But Caleb Sturgis finds the cure and keeps the Gators healthy. Guest starring SEC officials who just want to be noticed.

Episode 7: The Old Money boys from Alabama have jumped Florida in the rankings. Tim is conflicted as he travels to rural Mississippi and faces his former partner, Dan Mullen, while everyone wants to see current partner Steve Addazio taken away. The pressure gets to Tim and while he is successful, it strains him. Dustin Doe guest stars as the linebacker who lets his showboating get in the way.

Episode 8: Florida is back on top in the rankings, but their Cocktail Party with Georgia looms large after Florida embarrassed them the year before in Jacksonville. Georgia shows up in black, yet Florida is not intimidated and dominates on the First Coast. But not before Brandon tries to take revenge on Georgia. Washaun Ealey guest stars as the object of Brandon's hate.

Episode 9: Without Brandon following his crimes in Jacksonville, Florida tries to feel comfortable at home. Vanderbilt guest stars as the one SEC team that scares no one.

Episode 10: The Gators face their ex in Columbia as the city is under siege by a paramilitary organization. The Gators struggle against the soldiers, until they capitalize on a strategic mistake. Guest starring Justin Trattou as the loveable defensive lineman who stands up to South Carolina's Stephen Service.

Episode 11: Rumors swirl about Urban leaving for South Bend and A.J. Jones is injured. Florida International guest stars as the violent youth trying to become a mature adult.

Episode 12: It is the final time in Gainesville for Tim, Brandon and Riley. They cannot let their emotions get to them as an old rival returns for the last time. Bobby Bowden guest stars as the rival ready to retire, and featuring Bob and Pam Tebow as the proud parents.

Episode 13: The Gators are under pressure to be successful in Atlanta, with the goal of going to Los Angeles. But Carlos Dunlap is arrested for driving under the influence and Gainesville's citizens wonder if the Gators can overcome all the distractions. Guest starring Nick Saban as the ruthless opposing head coach with a love of window treatments.

After so many story lines, do the Gators have the focus and strength to continue? Will they remain successful? Will Tim inspire his teammates once again? Will Emmanuel Moody finally live up to his potential? Will Joe Haden be able to stop Julio Jones from destroying the Gators' secondary? These questions will be answered on the next "All My Gators".

A Crisis Of Confidence

mlmintampa — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:58:04 -0000

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During the Arkansas game, Urban Meyer was shown several times from the side and back of his head. He is only 45 years old, yet is graying at a pace of a man much older. Following the game, Steve Addazio leveled the blame for Florida's struggles on his players, despite a Chinese fire drill of a final drive that was on the backs of Tim Tebow (22 yards rushing), Jeff Demps (17 yards rushing) and Riley Cooper (30 yards receiving). It was not genius playcalling that got the Gators down the field. The weak playcalling and response by the Gators over the last few weeks has knocked this team from the AP Number One spot. Yes, it is a symbolic ranking, but symbols mean something.

It also means something when your quarterback, Tim Tebow, has touches on 209 of 410 offensive plays. You have no confidence in anyone around him. It means something when your only big back, Emmanuel Moody, has 27 carries, despite a desire to run the same dive play with your track stars. You have no confidence in Moody.

It also means something when Florida is on pace to have about 23 pass attempts, same as 2008, but with less effectiveness. Or that Florida is playing well, but not closing the deal when it counts. Like typical Florida fans, we watch every game, wondering when the ceiling will fall in and our run to Pasadena will end in a smoking wreck on I-75. And it does not help us to see our offensive coordinator trying to call plays from inside his ass and our coach looking like he has aged 10 years in the past 10 weeks.

The fact is that Florida is doing what it needs to do to win. We don't know yet if they can win a shootout, but they can win a slugfest (Tennessee), crush throats (LSU) and win ugly (Arkansas). Alabama has already done this and they will probably murder Tennessee this weekend too. Florida needs a big number at Mississippi State, 30-40 points, to prove they are not trying to give the least amount of effort for the greatest gain. Because that crap won't fly next week against a rested Georgia.

As it is right now, Florida cannot win a National Championship. Championship teams are cold blooded assassins. Florida has guys who can do that and those were the guys against Arkansas who flipped the switch and won the game. But that feeling of confidence, that feeling of "We will destroy all," is lacking. Maybe is that Florida is without Percy Harvin, or that it looked like Tebow was dead for about five minutes at Kentucky. The kevlar vest has been dented a few times and it's hard to get over that. The Gators have to get over it now because not only do they still wear the crown, the bullseye on their back says "Kick Me" and Dan Mullen, Mark Richt and Nick Saban are waiting for their chance.

For the Gators to repeat as National Champions, it will take an effort far greater than last year's run. It takes more than skill and experience to do it. It takes confidence. We need to see that this weekend and especially at Jacksonville.

Florida Preview

Richard Pittman — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:08:38 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

2 months ago: FILE - In this Sept. 12, 2009 file photo, Florida quarterback John Brantley warms up prior to an NCAA college football game against Troy in Gainesville, Fla. Florida quarterback Tim Tebow isn't cleared to play next week at LSU, the top-ranked Gators would turn the offense over to John Brantley. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

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I'm going to just come out and say it. We don't need to win this game. A win would be a big boon to the team's psyche. It would put us firmly in the media spotlight and make people talk about us as a true national championship contender, but we in no way, shape, or form need to win this game. Win or lose, we control our destiny in the SEC West race. We will win the West if we win out after Florida, and we probably need to win out regardless of what happens this week. We are generally expected to lose, and our press reports suck out loud already, so unless we get blown out we aren't going to suffer in the media. All that combines to tell me that this is probably the least important game on our schedule.

On the other hand, a win sure would be great. A loss represents only a lost opportunity for a win, rather than a genuinely damaging result for the team. It's rare you can say that about a game, but this is one of those. We can come out and play a game against a good opponent with really no pressure on us to actually win. That's what the win against Georgia did for us. It gave us license to go into the Florida game loose, playing like a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain, because this time it is true.

Also, we hate to make predictions here, but let me break from type just for one paragraph. I predict that Tim Tebow is not playing against us. Everything I know about concussions, and everything I saw about the hit Tebow took against Kentucky tells me that it is simply unrealistic for him to even think about returning this week. Next week is probably unlikely as well. I wouldn't expect him back before the October 24 game against Mississippi State. Any sooner than that, and Tebow would risk doing substantial, permanent damage to his brain. Nothing in the world is worth that.

This means one thing when it comes to previewing Florida. We know very little about what we're going to see when Florida has the ball. It would be incorrect to say that Florida has been a one-man offense; they have good players sprinkled throughout their offensive lineup, but everything about the Florida offense for the last 2 1/2 years has revolved around Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow throws. Tim Tebow runs. Tim Tebow executes the option. Everything is either Tim Tebow taking the ball himself, or Tim Tebow deciding what to do with it. The plays in which Tim Tebow is called upon to simply give the ball to someone else without having to make a decision about it first has probably accounted for less than 25% of Florida's plays in meaningful situations since Tebow became their starting quarterback. Since the loss of Percy Harvin to the NFL, it has probably been more. If he is really out, and I would be shocked if he isn't, the entire character of the Florida offense will have to change to accommodate a quarterback with a completely different skill-set.

What of John Brantley? He has completed 73% of his passes this year, with a 7.73 yard average per attempt, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and 44 yards rushing in 10 attempts. Certainly admirable statistics for a backup quarterback, but most of those stats were accumulated against Charleston Southern and Troy. It is not like he has faced an opponent on the level of an LSU yet. What's more, he will have to do it with a receiver corps that is coming under fire for not making enough plays, even with Tim Tebow throwing to them.

To take nothing away from John Brantley, who is a promising young quarterback in his own right, the Tebow-less Florida offense is an offense that can be stopped if we play up to our ability, especially if we can discover a pass rush. There is not a traditional running back, as pint sized speedsters Jeffrey Demps and Chris Rainey are 1st and 3rd on the team in rushing yards, respectively, with Tebow sandwiched between them. Tebow is their power back, a role that would have to be taken up by Emmanuel Moody, which will make Florida's offense highly dependent on personnel groupings and rob Florida of the unpredictability that they have used to advantage in the past.

Let's be clear. The Florida offense without Tim Tebow is still dangerous. There is still a very good offensive line there, and fast running backs, and Aaron Hernandez, and Riley Cooper, but Tim Tebow is not called arguably the best college football player in a generation because he's so easily replaced. So you can throw Florida's #1 rated scoring offense and #1 rated total offense out the window and officially say that we don't know how good this offense will be.

The defense, however? Tim Tebow had no effect on that defense, at least not directly, and it's the #1 rated scoring defense and #1 rated total defense too. Then again, they've done it against arguably the weakest competition any SEC team has faced so far. Charleston Southern, Troy, a Tennessee team that appeared only interested in beating the point spread, and Kentucky. That is far from a murderer's row to start the season, and I feel OK saying that LSU is a lot better than any of those teams, despite our well-documented problems.

But make no mistake, there are some outstanding players on that defense, starting with middle linebacker Brandon Spikes. Of course, we remember him from his interceptions last year. Their secondary, which was so young two years ago, is now filled with fully developed NFL prospects like Joe Haden, Janoris Jenkins, and Ahmad Black, which has led to the Gators having the #1 pass defense and the #1 pass efficiency defense in the conference.

If there is a weakness there, you can consider that, like LSU, Florida is not getting the sacks on the quarterback. We're giving them up, and Florida's not getting them, so something has to break there. Then again, Florida is getting almost twice as many sacks per game as we are: 1.75 per game vs. 1 per game.

So strangely enough, the #1 team in the country and defending national champion comes to Baton Rouge as a bit of a mystery. We don't officially know if their All-American quarterback is playing, though we can make an educated guess that he isn't. Without him, we're not sure what kind of a team they bring onto the field when they have the ball. On defense, they are certainly very good, but it's hard to say with any confidence that they are great. We will have to see, but whatever happens, the season continues on with full confidence. I could not have said the same thing last week.

Saturday Lessons: September 26

Year2 — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 11:00:33 -0000

by James Crisp - AP

Ouch.

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Superman is not indestructible.

In the end, no one will remember the 41-7 final score, the 31-0 first quarter score, or the avalanche of yellow flags and mistakes that Kentucky ultimately fell under. It's the Tebow Got Hurt Game now, two years after he sustained a bad shoulder injury in Lexington that didn't get surgically fixed until after the 2008 season. For two weeks we'll hear questions about why Urban Meyer didn't pull his quarterback sooner, but he never has pulled Tebow in similar situations in the past. The only irony is that the big knockout hit did not come on a run, as his detractors have predicted for three years, but on a pocket pass that they've been saying he needed to do more of all along.

As for on the field things, the Gator offense is an entirely different animal with a healthy Jeffrey Demps. Emmanuel Moody also continued to impress, but he had a curiously low five carries on the night. That is, it would be curious if it didn't happen every week.

Texas found its groove.

Not that UTEP is any good, but Texas seriously put on a show. The Longhorns scored 64 points, rolled up 639 yards, and held the Miners to 53 total yards. UTEP was a paltry one of 12 on third down and the only score was on a pick six of Colt McCoy. We knew the offense would be good, but so far the defense is looking good too.

Alabama is a very complete team.

I guess we could say we knew that, but it all was on display as Alabama really controlled its game with Arkansas from beginning to end. For all the love showered on Ryan Mallett, who appears to be Gary Danielson's new secondary crush (behind Tebow, his primary) now that Matthew Stafford is in the NFL, Greg McElroy was by far the best quarterback in the game.

Mark Ingram and Terry Grant never really got on track on the ground, but Trent Richardson picked up some slack and with McElory going bombs away against a bad Arkansas pass defense, it never mattered. The Tide defense was also impressive, holding the potent Hogs to seven points and 254 total yards. This team doesn't appear to have too many weaknesses.

The top ten will be a revolving door all year.

Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, USC, BYU, Ole Miss, Cal, Miami, and Penn State have all lost as top ten teams in the AP Poll. This is only one month into the season. On the one hand, BYU and Miami earned their way in thanks to big wins and some surprisingly resume-based voting from the pollsters, and VT and Ohio State lost to fellow top ten teams. On the other, teams like Oklahoma State and Ole Miss lost to expose faulty preseason analysis.

Now look at who's likely to be in the new top ten. Does anyone think LSU will be in it for long after some less than impressive performances? Does Boise State have the kind of schedule that supports them sitting up this high all season? Can Virginia Tech really run the table in the still-crazy ACC? Does Ohio State have enough offense to justify being there? We're just going to keep going through this over and over all year long.

The SEC West is more competitive than we know.

Alabama at this point is by far the best team, but with Ole Miss falling back to the pack and Mississippi State giving LSU a bona fide scare, everyone in the division has at least looked decent at some point this year. I mean, Arkansas exploded against Georgia, and Auburn rolled up 50+ this week for the first time in years after taking down West Virginia. The whole thing is a jumbled mess, but for the most part in a good way. It's not that everyone is bad, it's that more are good than we thought. This could be a really wild race down the stretch.

Arizona State still has no answer for A.J. Green.

174 yards on just eight catches. A grab to set up the game winning field goal. You can't ask for much more from A.J. Green, who is by far the best player on Georgia's team. The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils badly, but three turnovers kept this one closer for longer than it probably should have been. Georgia is just like FSU and South Carolina at this point, in that we don't know which team is going to show up to each game. At least with the Bulldogs, we know they'll probably win.

There's nothing easy left for Tennessee.

The Vols had to outlast a very game Ohio Bobcats team to pull out their second victory of the year. It's encouraging that Jonathan Crompton was able to go 34 attempts with just one pick, but his 6.5 yards per pass average isn't stellar. The 34-23 score was not misleading, as Tennessee outgained Ohio 399-340, though it is strange that the Vols gave up 319 passing yards a week after shutting down Florida's passing attack. The real concern is injuries now, and the fact it took four quarters to put away a team that needed overtime to beat North Texas.

Survive and advance.

That's the new motto for everyone this year. Maybe we are reliving 2007 after all.

Florida at Kentucky -- Pre-game Statistical Breakdown

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 17:45:27 -0000

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Tonight's game against the Florida Gators represents the second time in three years that Kentucky has faced the #1 team in the nation in Commonwealth Stadium. That is a testament to just how tough the SEC has been lately, and no matter what the outcome of tonight's game, it is a testament to the quality of football we have gotten used to in the SEC.

Some fun (and not so fun) facts about tonight's game, before we get into the hard-core stats:

Series history: Florida leads 42-17.
Cumulative score in the last 5 meetings: Florida: 203 UK: 80
UK leads the nation in QB sacks allowed, and has not allowed one this year.
Randall Cobb leads the SEC and is tied for 23rd in the nation in receptions per game.
Trevard Lindley is second in the nation in passes defended.
This is the 60th meeting between UK and Florida.
Joker Phillips and Urban Meyer were both offensive coordinators at Notre Dame.
Lones Seiber needs one point to tie Joey Worley for the UK scoring record.
Trevard Lindley needs one INT to tie for second on UK's all-time list.
Derrick Locke needs 43 yards to reach a career 1000 yard milestone.
Kentucky is 3-8 all time against #1 ranked teams.
UK is 38-172-5 against ranked opponents.
Rich Brooks is currently 5th all-time in wins at UK.
Derrick Locke ranks 9th nationally in all-purpose yards.

More after the jump.

The statistical comparison:

Team Statistics	Kentucky	Opponents	Florida	Opponents
Scoring: Points/Game	36.5	13.5	47.0	7.3
Scoring: Games - Points	2 - 73	2 - 27	3 - 141	3 - 22
First Downs: Total	47	29	78	39
First Downs: Rushing - Passing - By Penalty	24 - 20 - 3	12 - 14 - 3	43 - 33 - 2	17 - 19 - 3
Rushing: Yards / Attempt	5.04	3.15	7.06	3.03
Rushing: Attempts - Yards - TD	82 - 413 - 5	62 - 195 - 1	123 - 868 - 10	94 - 285 - 1
Passing: Rating	141.13	94.87	175.27	77.73
Passing: Yards	421	371	742	387
Passing: Attempts - Completions - Interceptions - TD	59 - 40 - 1 - 3	63 - 28 - 3 - 2	82 - 57 - 1 - 8	92 - 47 - 4 - 0
Total Offense: Yards / Play	5.9	4.5	7.9	3.6
Total Offense: Plays - Yards	141 - 834	125 - 566	205 - 1610	186 - 672
Punt Returns: Yards / Return	7.60	9.33	3.40	0.00
Punt Returns: Returns - Yards - TD	5 - 38 - 0	3 - 28 - 0	10 - 34 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
Kickoff Returns: Yards / Return	42.33	22.25	38.13	16.82
Kickoff Returns: Returns - Yards - TD	6 - 254 - 1	12 - 267 - 0	8 - 305 - 1	22 - 370 - 0
Punting: Yards / Punt	40.14	38.00	41.50	40.43
Punting: Punts - Yards	7 - 281	12 - 456	6 - 249	21 - 849
Interceptions: Returns - Yards - TD	3 - 84 - 1	1 - 0 - 0	4 - 0 - 0	1 - 0 - 0
Fumbles: Number - Lost	4 - 2	2 - 1	7 - 4	5 - 2
Penalties: Number - Yards	11 - 115	11 - 75	22 - 155	15 - 131
Time of Possession / Game	31:56.50	28:03.50	28:56.33	31:03.67
3rd Down Conversions: Conversion %	58.62%	34.38%	66.67%	31.25%
3rd Down Conversions: Attempts - Conversions	29 - 17	32 - 11	36 - 24	48 - 15
4th Down Conversions: Conversion %	50%	50%	50%	20%
4th Down Conversions: Attempts - Conversions	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	5 - 1
Red Zone: Success %	77.78%	57.14%	87.5%	66.67%
Red Zone: Attempts - Scores	9 - 7	7 - 4	16 - 14	6 - 4
Field Goals: Success %	50%	50%	75%	100%
Field Goals: Attempts - Made	2 - 1	4 - 2	4 - 3	5 - 5
PAT Kicking: Success %	100%	100%	94.7%	100%
PAT Kicking: Attempts - Made	10 - 10	3 - 3	19 - 18	1 - 1
2-Point Conversions: Success %	-	-	-	-
2-Point Conversions: Attempts - Made	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

I've highlighted the items that I think are significant, the light blue for UK and the light orange for the Gators.

Analysis

For UK to beat Florida would be a major upset, no matter what the condition of the team vis-a-vis the flu. Florida is the fastest team in the nation, having a number of athletes on their team with world-class speed -- Jeffrey Demps immediately comes to mind. They also have a presumptive Heisman trophy candidate in Tim Tebow, which would be his second. Florida also has one of the best linebackers in the nation in Brandon Spikes, and a very solid defense all around.

Kentucky, on the other hand, has a few of these things -- one of the best linebackers in the SEC in Micah Johnson, arguably the best cover corner in the league and one of the best in America, and the most experience offensive line in the SEC.

Florida offense vs. Kentucky defense.

The Florida offense is one of the most high-powered in the nation. Florida attempts to isolate athletes in space by using a variation of the Spread Option offense, and because their athletes are so explosive, they are deadly when they achieve that objective. Florida's offense did not perform particularly well against Tennessee's defense, but they performed well enough to win the game, and Tennessee's defense is very stout.

To succeed today, Florida's offense must:

Get the ball to Demps early and often, particularly on the pass;
Keep Tebow protected in the pocket so he can work his magic, either with his feet or with his arm;
Avoid throwing the ball at Trevard Lindley;
Let Chris Rainey run the ball and force UK to stop him;
Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez are averaging 16 and 12 yards/reception respectively. Tennessee held them down a bit, but can Kentucky?

This will be a big test for the UK defense. Against the only BCS team it has faced so far, Kentucky's defense was anything but impressive. Of course, the three turnovers in a row that kept the defense on the field for the entire third quarter of the Louisville game does not really give us a fair read, but it is safe to say that the biggest concern. Kentucky's biggest concern right now is pressure from the defensive line -- they were able to get very little on Louisville's mobile quarterback, and that is not an encouraging fact when facing the much more accomplished and highly mobile Tim Tebow.

To succeed today, Kentucky's defense must:

Force Tebow to throw the ball on the run;
Contain Tebow and Demps on the outside;
Minimize the yards after reception. Florida killed UK last year with yards after the catch;
Make solid tackles, particularly on Demps and Tebow.
Take chances. Kentucky cannot beat Florida by playing conservative, their athletes are too good.

Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense

Kentucky's offense is clearly better than it was last year with a more mature Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb, the addition of Chris Matthews at wide receiver and the return of the dangerous Derrick Locke. Kentucky has enough offensive weapons to do some damage against Florida, and if it can manage to keep the defense on the field with long drives that result in scores, UK could threaten Florida if they are not having a great offensive game.

To succeed today, Kentucky's offense must:

Get the ball to Randall Cobb early and often;
Continue to give Hartline time;
Throw the ball downfield some;
Establish a running game to keep Florida from teeing off on Hartline;
Avoid third and long.

Florida's defense is a very strong unit, but interestingly enough is currently ranked only 3 spots above Kentucky in the run. Florida has not been particularly strong against the running game this year, and with a healthy Derrick Locke and Alfonso Smith, UK could do some damage by reeling off a few good gains. Brandon Spikes, Florida's All-American candidate linebacker, will probably be able to prevent big gains over the ground.

To succeed today, Florida's defense must:

Deny Randall Cobb the ball wherever possible, even double-team him at WR;
Force UK to throw the ball underneath, where Florida's speed can be used most effectively;
Keep UK from running the ball effectively;
Find a way to get some pressure on Hartline.

Summary

Overall, Florida is deeper and more talented than Kentucky at most positions, but not ridiculously so at most of them. UK has seriously upgraded its talent overall, and even though Florida will be prohibitive favorites to win, it won't take much in the way of missteps of poor play on the part of the Gators to turn this into a football game. Urban Meyer knows this well, so he will not be cocky or careless against the Wildcats, and will likely force Kentucky to take most of the chances.

Obviously, if UK collapses on special teams like they did last year, or allow too many early big plays, they will fold like a house of cards versus the Gators' superior speed and talent. But if UK can hold in tight for the first quarter or so, the game could get interesting real fast. The Gators have a number of players who are feeling ill, and forcing sick guys to play in a competitive football game would give UK a shot at winning. The Gators will want to jump on the 'Cats early, and try to get at least a 21-point cushion before halftime. That way, they can play safe and smart, and avoid exhausting their ailing players.

Predicted score: Florida 38, UK 24

Kentucky vs. Louisville -- What Makes Me Confident, and What Makes Me Nervous

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 22:01:59 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

Victor Anderson could give us some serious trouble tomorrow.

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I see a lot of confidence in Kentucky fans regarding the Governor's Cup tomorrow, and I see an awful lot of pessimism in Louisville fans. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised at either, but perhaps Kentucky fans should be a little cautious with their optimism and save the smack-talk until after the game is over. There is nothing less tasty than ~~Cardinal~~ crow after an upset.

Now, don't count me among the pessimistic -- I'm not. On paper, Kentucky has a number of advantages over Louisville, and Mike over at the Card Chronicle has done a pretty fair job of detailing them. So what I propose to do here is detail the things that make me feel confident, and nervous, about tomorrow's contest.

Confident

The Kentucky offensive line. UK has one of the most experienced lines in the SEC, and they get Jorge Gonzalez back at center for tomorrow's game. Kentucky was 5th in the nation in sacks allowed last year, so if the line comes to play, Hartline will get all the time he needs to find receivers.

Nervous

Trent Guy. Trent Guy is a gamebreaker, a lightning-quick athlete that, if he gets the ball in space, will leave UK defenders trying to tackle his vapor trail. This kid is fast, and reminds me a lot of Florida's Jeffrey Demps -- small, quick, and if he gets a step, gone.

Confident

Our "in the box" guys. Louisville has some very solid backs, but with the exception of the edges, Kentucky has a very experienced and talented defensive front. Even if Victor Anderson or Bilal Powell get loose a little, I think the 'Cats have the speed and athleticism to tackle them.

Nervous

Kentucky's kicking game. I think our punting game is OK, but kickoffs make me nervous. We simply do not have anyone with enough leg to get the hang time we need, and Tim Masthay is not walking through that door. With dangerous returners like Trent Guy and Doug Beaumont, I have nightmares about kickoffs to the Cardinals.

Confident

Kentucky's secondary. I think that the 'Cats are going to intercept passes from Louisville if they try to throw it downfield. UK has Trevard Lindley, but the other guys in the defensive backfield are also high quality -- Paul Warford, Calvin Harrison, Winston Guy, Randall Burden and Matt Lentz all represent major threats to an untested QB.

Nervous

Justin Burke. After a pedestrian outing against Indiana State, I fear that this kid will suddenly wake up and play over his head in a rivalry game. If he is able to get the ball to guys like Beaumont and Guy in space, Louisville could move the football. And if the kicking game is as bad as Brooks' fears, the Cardinals will be starting from less than 60 yards from our end zone.

Confident

Rich Brooks. I love what Papa Brooks has done over the last few years, and I am becoming a believer in his judgment, game management and experience. Brooks is the kind of coach that if you give him enough talent, he wins, and I think the Wildcats have plenty of talent for the Cardinals.

Nervous

Field Goal kicking. Lones Seiber has been anything but consistent, and if the game is closer than expected, he could be the difference between a win and a loss. I don't feel good at all about having Seiber as the bulwark against a close defeat.

Well, those are the things that make me puff my chest out, and the things that make me toss and turn in the bed at night. Feel free to chime in with your observations, I'd love to hear them.

A Friday Preview of What We're Getting To Know Quite Well - California v. Minnesota, September 19, 2009

JG2112 — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:52:28 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

This is Shane Vereen, he is Jahvid Best's backup at Cal. Be afraid - this guy is good too.

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Anyone else excited that Adam Duritz, the conqueror of Courteney Cox and Jennifer Aniston, may be in town tomorrow? Anyone else excited that Gopher Nation is warming to the idea of an upset of a top 10 California team? Anyone else excited to see good ole maroon jerseys tomorrow (what would Cal wear opposite gold, their home blues?)

Good. The 2-0 Cal Bears enter The Bank tomorrow (insert requisite deposit, withdrawal, loan, and default jokes here) for an 11:00 CST game being televised on the WWL. In case you haven't heard, the game starts at 9:00 am PST. In case you don't follow football, Cal lost an early game to Maryland last year 35-27, after falling behind 21-6 at halftime. Also, if you're a bit queasy, avoid watching this clip of Jahvid Best getting blown up and then, er, blowing chunks in the 2008 Maryland game.

Back to the preview. Here are some depth charts, as usual:

Minnesota depth chart

Cal depth chart

Also dig the pronunciation chart for Cal's players, which is what you'd expect from a progressive institution like Cal.

Take the charts with bricks of salt at this point - Jahvid Best is supposedly no longer returning kicks, although I wouldn't have had him on that duty last week against Eastern Washington given the level of opposition. Don't be shocked if he's back there this week - his straight line speed is absurd and possibly the quickest in the nation.

Other places around the Internets have done pretty good jobs comparing the teams' offenses and defenses and picking out some key strategic matchups. I have no interest in replowing ground. Here are five additional matchups to consider tomorrow:

(1) Cal vs. the second, third and fourth quarters - the sports media will never give up an opportunity to beat a theme into the ground. The current theme for Cal is whether they'll be awake and ready for this game tomorrow. Cal flew into Minneapolis Thursday night, and I'm guessing they had a morning practice to acclimate themselves to the early start. I have a sneaky sense that Cal is going to be extremely ready for the first quarter and will be bouncing all over the Bank. Jolt Cola, 5 Hour Energy, an In and Out Burger, an early morning protest of capitalism - whatever Berkeley kids do to start off the day and be buzzing with energy, expect it Saturday.

However, what happens after the sugar high? At about noon, will Cal still be riding high, chock full of adrenaline, ready to play at a top level? Importantly, the Gophers never seem to start playing until the third quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if the script flips for this game for Cal, but the Gophers' halftime adjustments lead Cal into a corner they don't have the energy or momentum to overcome. It will be an interesting storyline to this game to see if either team can flip their supposed script (Cal can't play early, Minnesota plays well late) and break tendencies.

(2) California kicker Giorgio Tavecchio v. anything beyond the opponents' ten yard line - Tavecchio should load up on the pasta, because he has significant problems kicking the ball deep on kickoffs. This is a significant problem, especially considering Troy Stoudermire's proficiency returning kicks. If the Gophers receive the opening kickoff and get a big return, it could immediately force Cal on the defensive and, at the very least, force Cal into poor field position. At the best for the Gophers, it could mean an early lead and a chance for the Bank to start jingling (dear me).

(3) Cal RB Jahvid Best v. whoever would defend him in pass coverage - I have supreme confidence in Minnesota's ability to neutralize Best between the tackles. I'm pretty sure that if you asked Coach Tedford the same, he would have a little concern after watching Minnesota's front seven against the flying Duke PGs and Air Force. However, where Minnesota was prone to giving up some yardage was on the edge to Asher Clark last week. Despite his moderate success, the LBs were able to regularly flow to the ball and make tons of tackles. And, of course, in an obvious passing down, Ryan Collado still bit horribly on a play fake for the Air Force's only TD.

Why is that concerning? Jahvid Best is, other than Michigan QB Denard Robinson and Florida RB Jeffrey Demps, the fastest player in the FBS. His speed, cuts, and acceleration are frightening. If Best is utlized wide in a 3 wideout set, who defends him? A linebacker? Probably not. Simmons? Maybe, but then who's guarding the starting wideouts? Rallis or Collado? Help us - they'll responsible for 2 TDs this year, where they were play-faked at least 20 and 10 yards behind the catch, respectively. It'll be imperative for whoever is responsible for covering Best to not fall for a play fake to Vereen and also to shade him to the outside so that the linebackers and secondary can flow to Best and assist in gang-tackling him. If he's allowed to the outside, though, Minnesota may help jumpstart his Heisman campaign after only getting 28 carries the first two weeks, albeit in blowouts.

(4) Once again, QB Adam Weber versus his man crush - I do realize that Cal's CBs, Syd'Quan Thompson and Darian Hagan, are 5'9" and 6'0", respectively. However, Eric Decker is going to probably attract safety help the whole game, thereby making it absolutely imperative that Weber look to Stoudermire, Carpenter, Green, Tow-Arnett and others to carry the receiving load for Minnesota. There's no issue in going to Decker intermittently, as Weber seemed to distribute the ball quite well in the second half against Air Force. Cal's defensive backfield is considered top 10 nationally, however, and I doubt Minnesota can pick on any of their defenders with regularity. Distribution is key. Oh, and let Gray pass a ball already - he's got a better arm than Weber.

(5) Minnesota's stretch running game using Cal's speed against them - I watched Cal's game against Maryland 2 weeks ago, and was stunned at their speed. I have not seen a quicker team, perhaps, ever. Yes, that includes the SEC. However, Minnesota can use that speed against them, and the stretch running game is one place to do it. I realize Wills was eaten up a few times by the speed of the Syracuse defensive ends, even giving up a sack and fumble in the third quarter. However, while Cal's ends can probably beat Wills to a spot on the field, the stretch running game can use that overpursuit against Cal by the RB establishing a solid cut and heading upfield. Of course, this will require solid blocking behind the cuts, but it's a way to gain an advantage. Bennett, Eskridge and Whaley could benefit from precisely running behind these blocks.

So, a big opponent coming to town, expectations are rising, and by the way, we have an outdoor stadium. Ready?

Bang your head (against a table) if: QB Kevin Riley is accurate, RBs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen are getting yards between the tackles, and Minnesota is the team sleepwalking again through the first 3 quarters.

Bang your head (like you're at a rock concert) if: Adam Weber is allowed to throw to Hayo Carpenter, if the stretch play is working, and Aramark actually decides to install 1960s era technology at the food stalls - yes, cash registers are not too much to ask.

My prediction for Saturday: While I don't think it'll be a Long December for the Gophers, daylight will be fading a little bit on the Gophers. California 31 - Minnesota 21.

Comparison: Florida versus the Citadel and Charleston Southern

Year2 — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 21:00:31 -0000

Since we only have a week of football under our belts, the only thing we can do right now for comparison's sake is look at what teams did last year versus what they did this year. So with that in mind, let's take a look at Florida versus the Citadel last year and versus Charleston Southern this year. I chose the Citadel for last year's comparison game because it was a I-AA opponent (like CSU) and because it was after Jeffrey Demps and Chris Rainey emerged.

OFFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. CITADEL	vs. CHAS SOUTHERN
Total Yards	705	624
Passing	311	255
Yds. per Pass	14.1	9.4
Rushing	394	369
Yds. per Rush	10.6	11.2
Turnovers	0	0
Time of Poss.	25:06	22:26
Sacks All.	0	0

Florida's offensive output was a bit muted in this I-AA tussle versus last year's but I'm not inclined to read much into it. Had Deonte Thompson not dropped a deep bomb from Tim Tebow in the first half, the stats of the two games would probably be roughly identical. The time of possession drop is not surprising either since UF debuted its new hurry up offense that it calls the "banzai" package.

The yards per pass did dip a bit though. Even if you give Florida 50 yards for the Thompson drop, the average comes out to 11.3 yards per pass. That's still better than most offenses do, but it's a result of Tebow and Brantley going 18 of 27 (67%) instead of 17 of 22 (77%). It's nitpicking, but that's about the only other notable thing about the offense. It was predictably potent, and the starters legitimately had a chance to score on every play.

DEFENSE

CATEGORY	vs. CITADEL	vs. CHAS SOUTHERN
Total Yards	341	323
Passing	214	228
Yds. per Pass	5.8	4.7
Rushing	127	95
Yds. per Rush	3.7	3.5
Turnovers	3	1
Time of Poss.	34:54	37:54
Sacks For	4 (-26 yards)	0

It's not a huge difference, but the numbers are slightly better for the most part. The decline in turnovers sticks out, as does the goose egg for sacks. Part of that second point had to do with the fact that CSU did a lot of quick throws that don't give a defense a chance for a sack, and part of it probably has to do with two starting linemen (Lawrence Marsh and Jermaine Cunningham) not playing. Still, you would have figured Carlos Dunlap would have gotten one at some point.

Some Gator fans were concerned about the stats for CSU, but they were not materially different from the Citadel game. If you put sacks back in total yardage (making it 317 total yards) and survey Florida's 2008 opponents, you find that only six of the Gators' 13 other opponents beat that mark. The important guys all were taken out in the second quarter, and really, this game shouldn't even count towards the season stats.

There was never much we were going to learn from this game, except for who's red shirt was going to get burnt. Of note, though, is that Tebow's new throwing motion cause his deep balls to fly with authority instead of be floating rainbow throws. Other than that, it was a meaningless scrimmage.

Previous Comparison: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn.