SB Nation - Andrew Datko

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State Football Performance Report 11.17.09

FSUncensored — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:43:29 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Jermaine Thomas (38) runs against Wake Forest during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. Florida State won, 41-28. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Browse more photos »

Let's start out with something different for a moment. My best friend is serving in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Xerox is sponsoring a project that will send free cards to all of the soldiers. You can fill our your own personalized message and choose from 15 cards drawn by elementary school children across the united states. Here is the link for the project: http://www.LetsSayThanks.com/Home1024.html It takes less than a minute and you'll make a soldier's day.

Now for the offense. FSU went on scoring drives of 81, 79, 68, 68, 43, and 27 yards. 4 offensive touchdowns and 2 field goals. Get some, Wake Forest! Let's break down the offensive performance. As with all photos here, click them to enlarge.

7.2 yards per play is outstanding. In a normal game where FSU gets 70 plays, that's 500+ yard pace. Excellent job EJ. And the gameplan was ridiculously simple. FSU ran some version of the Veer 9 times. Don't tell anyone, but that's basically UF's offense. When they threw the ball it was a screen or a crossing route. I counted 5 passes that traveled more than 8 yards downfield. E.J. Manuel managed the game well and did exactly what FSU asked him to do.

Inside we have more charts, recaps of the press conferences, and highlight videos!

Want to settle your QB down and let him have a nice day? Own 1st down. And that's exactly what FSU did. Of 30 1st down plays, FSU only had two for 20+ yards, but they were successful a superb 53% of the time, and were only held to 1 or fewer yards on 6 of 30 1st down plays. Of those 16 successes, 10 of them were accomplished via Jermaine Thomas. That's important because we're dealing with a young quarterback.

Mmmmm The best offense in the conference kept on hummin'. And there's no scheduling quirk here. FSU has faced 7 of the conference's best 9 defenses.

Oh, and Jeff Cameron of 1270TheTeam Sports Radio had Jimbo Fisher on with him yesterday. Have a listen.

As for individual player breakdowns, I thought the right side of the offensive line did a tremendous job. That's guard David Spurlock and Tackle Zebrie Sanders. This offensive line is already very good, but they might be incredible next year. I really think they surprise teams, and especially opposing linebackers, with their quickness. It messes up the angles opposing backers must take. Ryan McMahon was his usual solid self. He doesn't dominate but he does what we ask him to. Rodney Hudson, until he got injured (and they are expected to hold him out until the UF game with his mild knee sprain), looked good. And maybe most impressive because of his injury was Andrew Datko (separated shoulder). I thought he did a great job and a shoulder injury is not all that easy to play with.

As for the backs. Thomas ran hard and was decisive. He made the right cuts almost all of the time. Ty Jones was not impressive at all. Anyone could have run through those huge holes.

My player of the game might be Rod Owens. He blocked his butt off and also ran some great rotues for Manuel. Twice on 3rd downs, Manuel was very late making his read and Owens slowed down knowing he could get killed but wanting to give his QB an open target. A big +1 for Rod Owens! Bert Reed didn't screw around and got upfield quickly.

I like the idea of flipping the ball to Jarmon in space. It somewhat limits what coverages the opposition can play and he is an athletic freak.

Here's Jimbo's Notes from the press conference that I took down yesterday:

We had some complexity in the offense and we were fortunate to hit our plays when we called them. E.J. was doing the things that he needed to do. He executed the gameplan very well. Stayed in good down and distance, fortunate to have the plays be open (implying Wake's plan was dumb). No delay penalties. Changed protections, routes, etc.

Every play is from a family of plays so when the QB checks down they have to know what they are looking to attack. Jimbo teaches conceptually. What are we trying to attack. If we know it we can change on the fly. Harder to learn at first but better in the long run.

E.J. and Christian both understand the concepts of football and I think this is the reason they pick things up so quickly.

These are good emotions this week. They have great futures ahead of them. We do have some upper classmen who have grown up and they will go off the right way.

Never had this small of a senior class before. FSU loses only Goodman, Piurowski, and Owens, to graduation (on offense).

E.J. has a lot of instincts to play football. Jermain Thomas did a nice job to help E.J. with the pitches by being where he needed to be. Did a great job of maintaining the pitch relationship.

You have to have the dependability of a running back who adds the dimension of a consistent running back.

Tavares Pressley could see some PT this week.

Brandon Davis did a nice job coming in for Rodney

I think the whole group (WR's) played the best game they have from blocking to running routes.

Jarmon Fortson doesn't realize how much time this game really takes. I am not down on him but he can get to another level of greatness if he gets all of the details. I am really looking forward to seeing how he progresses. (Jimbo challenges Fortson every week.

Maryland blitzes like crazy and they are hard to prepare for." "They do it all." "As tough to prepare for in terms of blitzing as anyone we have played. This could be a game where we mix incompletes with big plays because of the blitz. When you blitz the YAC yards, yards after catch are there to be made then our receivers have to make plays. I thin Joe Montana did a very good job of getting his receivers the ball where each of them needed it. E.J. will understand the concepts but he will need to put in a lot of study time this week.

I told E.J. the other day that Christian had a lot of success each week because he prepared for every game the same way. E.J. has had some success now he just needs to play the game. This is bigger than anyone who has ever been involved with it. E.J. is very self motivated and I tell him that the hardest job in football is being the backup QB. He did a great job and he prepared to play and it showed. If you think I am waiting and not going to play is not the way to prepare for a game. E.J. and Christian are very similar in a lot of ways."

We are looking forward to having Chris Thompson back this week." (Thompson's grandfather passed away and they had a close relationship.)

If good enough is ever good enough then we have a problem. "Good enough is never good enough to me."

Fisher then talked about a question regarding the running game not being as good as people expected. Said a lot of that run game went from the QB's legs to the qb's arm. I think people were shocked to see that we could throw as well as we did this year. I want to see how efficient we are on each play. Pass blocking has been much better this year than we were a year ago. "I don’t care how many yards we run or throw for, I care about how efficient are we each play."

Receivers are getting into their routes better, breaking them off better, catching it better. We are making quick decisions. Everything on offense is doing better.

Jimbo smirked when told this offense is the best since 2000, then said he wasn’t aware of that. Said he is much more comfortable as a playcaller.

We are learning to play with more consistency.

We are getting better but I still think we leave a lot out there. Not just yards but more great runs, more great throws, more great catches.

When things aren't just like you coach them up these guys are making the adjustments to keep the play moving and that is a good sign.

Fisher said when he is going through grading the offense, there are consistent pluses rather than a big play then a minus.

On Mickey Andrews: I don’t know if anybody played any better defense during any time during any era of college football than during Mickey’s 20 years. Until you are a great defensive team you’re not a great team. Defense keeps you in games. FSU used to win 41-39 until Mickey got here. Nobody’s legacy is above Mickey Andrews. How would you attack a mickey andrews defense? had to be balanced, had to recruit a lot better "I mean they rattatattattd them now I tell ya. (fsu hitting weurffel)"

Then he talked for a while about how having big hands and long arms helps in play-action.

On Goodman- trying to get him back.

Owens, EJ, and Jermaine players of the game. Owens had some great blocks and showed great patience in his routes. Great feel for that.

On Greg Reid returning punts and not kicks… not sure, said Pat is good too. (It's not his call)

Can’t afford to lose Cas, Christian, Rich, Rodney, but we have to have other guys step up. give someone else the chance to be a hero. guys keep stepping up keep competing keep battling great traits for the future

We are recruiting guys to fit our mold and practicing better than before. Then (2007) they were memorizing plays now they get the concepts to what you teach which allows you to make adjustments. the older guys never got that and it was unfair to ask them to get it.

The Streak Is Over!

Our regular readers know that we had been tracking a rather embarrassing streak. Florida State's defense had allowed every opponent to post their best offensive game of the season in either Points, Total Yards, or the most important measure of performance, Yards-Per-Play. That is no longer the case. FSU held Wake Forest to only their 3rd best offensive performance of the year. Now, don't get too excited. Wake still gained 20% more than they had been averaging in conference games. Also, the streak would have come to an end thanks to UNC finally cracking the 5 yards-per-play barrier against someone (Miami, haha), and Clemson racking up an insane performance against NC State, both of which pushed FSU's defensive efforts down some.

For more on that Clemson game, which should make you feel a bit better about losing to those guys (they are a top 10 team this year, bank it), go here Clemson - NC State film review - Shakin The Southland. Also, want a fun stat? Sure you do. Miami's Jacory Harris leads the country in interceptions. And before Miami fans feed you some tired line about how their offense throws for more yards per pass and are thus more likely to throw an INT, don't believe it. Miami is 4th in conference in yards per pass, behind FSU, a team that doesn't try to go deep on every play.

Let's go comprehensive on the game:

Where did FSU succeed on defense? They used a variety of run blitzes on 1st down. Sometimes they worked and Wake was stopped for 1 or fewer yards. Other times they didn't and FSU was in the wrong gaps and hit for a big gain. Andrews talked about this some in his press conference.

I thought Kevin McNiel played better. Perhaps he is now in shape. Everette Dawkins played a very nice game from what I saw (#93).

FSU is definitely playing more zone defense now and they played it well on Saturday. Mangum is not as bad covering half a field as he is covering a whole field.

Our backers still do not read their keys and I'm not sure they know them. Chuck Amato is a horrible coach. Really puzzled as to why Wake didn't run more misdirection. I like Nigel Carr's energy. Bradham is progressing slower than I'd like but he is coming around.

Upon watching again, we did have some guys running free in the secondary who were not accounted for and that is a problem. Skinner just didn't hit them.

Andrews said it was a team game. Everyone pitched in.

Aays they won 1st down and aoccomplished the goal (didn't state the goal)

3rd and long did not win (we might have forced more, it's a step in the right direction)

How many yards did they make after contact? few longballs but lots of short plays that went long. (We played a lot of cover-2)

4th down not good, (but honestly, those are 4th and short’s, it's not a big deal)

Happy he didn’t have to face skinner again and they didn’t win 4 in a row

When they pull, it creates a new gap, you have to maintain gap integrity and re-adjust your leverage. (Mickey is right here, FSU did not go a good job of this. Said they got 100+ yards doing this).

Mickey said they are only doing the ceremony stuff because they were asked. (He is incredible humble)

When you’re a committed football coach, sometimes you have to do things you don’t wanna do, even when your priorities should be elsewhere, like if your family needs you. (Mickey clearly hinting that he was begged to come back but probably shouldn't be here). Thanks to Mickey for 25+ great years.

Greg reid has come along and been rewarded with more PT.

Mickey really looks better today, seems happy.

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Florida State Film Review: Seminole Offense @ North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:22:20 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Rod Owens, left, and Beau Reliford celebrate Owens' touchdown against North Carolina during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. Florida State won 30-27. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Welcome to another edition of Florida State Film Review! For the 2nd week in a row, I'm not breaking down the defense on a play-by-play basis because they are so poorly coached I cannot discern what they are attempting to do from play to play. Maybe I'll look at the defense Tuesday, but it is my honest evaluation that this defense is one of the worst in the country, even when adjusting for competition level. Instead, let's discuss one of the top offenses in the country. Today we have 7 exciting film clips and some photos as well. Continue reading and check it out!

And of course, if you enjoyed this, spread it around to your friends! We recently hit One Million visitors, and pieces like this are a reason why. Our staff puts a lot of work into these, and all 'Nole fans should see them. So spread it around.

Let's review just how impressive FSU's victory was:

Florida State traveled to face off against one of the finest defenses and worst offenses in the country. North Carolina's defense came into the game ranked 10th, their offense 99th. FSU's offense entered the game ranked 8th, their defense 101st. Florida State knew coming into the game that reaching 24 points would be a huge accomplishment against the ferocious North Carolina defense that features multiple future early NFL draft picks. It would be up to FSU's defense to make UNC's horrible offense look, well, horrible. Of course, FSU's defense allowed UNC to roll up 17 1st half points and to score another TD on their first 2nd half drive. FSU was down 24-6 to one of college football's best defenses.

And while FSU was setting up plays for the 2nd half and feeling out what could work, FSU's horrific defense let UNC's pitiful offense run up and down the field.

Let's use a quick chart to put this in perspective. Just how good was FSU's performance? To find out, you must compare it to the other teams who played the Heels:

Team v. UNC's Defense -ranked 10th	at UCONN	ECU	at Gtech	UVA	Florida State
Rank of Offense	49	62	2	56	8
Plays	61	61	77	68	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.2	3.8	6.7
Rushes	31	28	65	37	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7	2.3
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31	41
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8	9.2

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-Downs are not included as they are not a competitive play.
Carolina's defense hasn't allowed anyone to gain more than 5.2 yards per play. FSU put up 6.7 yards per play. Doesn't seem like much? Think again. Florida State gained 30% more yards per play than anyone else had on the Tar Heel's defense. And they did it in North Carolina, on a Thursday night.
1st team to crack 410 yards against UNC’s defense (438), and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA. Georgia Tech had 406, but they did it in Atlanta, and did it on 85 plays. FSU did it on 15 fewer plays. That's about 20% fewer snaps for FSU, but a lot more yards and as shown above, a lot more yards per play.
1st team to put 30 points on UNC’s defense and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA.

So yes, on a Thursday night, Florida State went into the house of one of the best defenses in the country, got down by 18 points by allowing one of the worst offenses in the nation to set season-highs. Then with UNC knowing they would have to pass, they did just that. And did it again and again and again. Florida State obliterated the even the worst numbers that Carolina's stellar defense had allowed all season. The 'Noles put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else had against the Tar Heels, and they did it in Chapel Hill, on a Thursday Night. The credit goes to Jimbo Fisher's halftime adjustments and Christian Ponder's once again excellent play.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels boxscore (Note, this isn't adjusted for sacks of kneeldowns, etc)

What did we learn?

If you don't think FSU is one of the best 5 offenses in the country, you need to wake up. Think a bit smarter and realize the opponent quality when you look at the production. FSU didn't get cupcakes this year.

No offense has scored more points against Miami than FSU.
Florida State's 54 points against BYU is 20 more than the next closest effort by any other team against the Cougars.
Fisher's offense dropped 44 on Georgia Tech; no other team has even cracked 35 on the Jackets, and the one who cracked 30 was Mississippi State who did it in garbage time (31 points).
And you saw the figures from above. FSU put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else did against UNC. And of course they set new season highs for points allowed and yards allowed by UNC.

I'll give a brief overview of the drive and include clips or pictures where relevant.

Drive #1

McMahon continues to have high snaps. 1st play of game. Also, poor pitch relationship between givens and thomas on 2nd down reverse (loss of 10). 3rd and 18 bubble is safe. possible big play and no disaster

Drive #2

Motion Jermaine Thomas out wide is good, gives ponder coverage look, goes from I-form to basically 4 wide. UNC played the spread sets very very conservatively early, counting on their front-4. They had no idea how to react to Thomas motioning wide from I-form. Nice use of pistol formation, lots of things happening. Bubble look to strong, slant weakside w/ Thomas also releasing weak. Hard to align v. pistol.

Then FSU comes out in I-formation twins, carolina has 8 in the box, clearly cover-3 as fsu motions to the weakside. This is cool:

Run-action holds the linebackers, and Zebrie Sanders and David Spurlock slip out to block for Bert reed. This is an excellent use of personnel as FSU is a great screen team due to their athletic offensive linemen. Sander's doesn't nail his block, but this is a very good play to have in the repertoire and is an appropriate counter to teams running lots of cover-3 with 8 in the box against standard personnel. This is a play that fsu can hit for long yardage on 1st downs. Also, look for the Noles to run it to Datko/Hudson's side later.

The bubble screen that reed fumbled/ didn't catch was the correct read by ponder. Owens just missed his block. That's not a call, but rather a check by ponder. against teams playing very loose cover-3 with 8 in the box against twins, fsu will need to continue to throw these. it's simply a regulator.

Bert Reed had a false start which is just not acceptable. poor concentration by the wideouts in the 1st half. (missed block by Owens, false start, etc). And the drive stalls. Pretty good drive against UNC's D.

Drive # 3

(Ponder sacked & fumbled). Arm might have been going forward. Spurlock lunged, and Zebrie got beat to the inside. More on them later. Datko also allowed pressure there. Not a good play, but remember, UNC was going to get a few of those.

Drive #4:

Zone read, very well blocked by 4 of 5, but spurlock not a great cut and his man makes a phenomenal crawling play to trip up thomas. Play had nice potential. Oh and Thomas didn't run real hard on it. Loss of 1. Here's the photo:

The man circled in yellow crawls at light-speed and makes the tackle.

Then FSU hits a 60+ yard play that is called back for an illegal block. Middle screen picture:

Just a step beyond the line. play isn't a penalty if he is 18 inches back. Negates gain of 65 yards. The rule is clear, you cannot block downfield for a pass thrown beyond the line of scrimmage.

Drive # 5:

Pistol Thomas for 4, inside zone. 5 good blocks, held the backside. drew unc offisdes. picked up 2nd and 2 with a 3 yard outside zone run to the right. good blocks, some movement. bert reed good effort on block but tough to block a big backer. Nice protection on the 13 yard slant to Fortson who did a nice job to get the YAC. Option look from off-set pistol, Ponder gets 3 but doesn't pitch the ball like he should (this might be fake option). Fortson has a bad drop on a slant. FSU has to have that. He's open, he's a big body, and he must catch the damn football. drew them offsides again, so from 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 2. Ponder hesitated and didn't hit owens on the 3rd and 2 rollout, his scramble didn't get there. punt.

Drive # 6

Pistol, Bubble. Slightly late as Ponder couldn't grip the ball. Excellent throw and catch on a tight window slant to Owens who gets 8 more yards and gets out of bounds. Fake draw fake end around and toss it to givens for 2 or 3. Good play to show it and kep them honest. Then came a beautiful play: JIMBO FISHER SMASH CLIP.

This is known as the smash. The outside receiver runs a curl and the slot receiver runs a corner route. The QB reads the defender. If the defender plays the curl, the QB throws the Corner. If the defender plays off, the QB throws the Curl. It's quite the cat and mouse game between QB and cornerback, and Ponder plays to win. Beautiful ball and great job getting the foot down by Bert Reed.

So 1st and goal. Reliford misses his block on the qb wrap. in any case, Commack lined up incorrectly, so even if FSU had scored, he would have nullified it. Lack of attention to detail. Coaches were livid. On 2nd and goal, they had the delay. Why? Apparently Bobby didn't realize last year's clock rules, thought clock stopped after a penalty. It doesn't. Assistant coaches can't call timeout, only the head coach, and he was nowhere to be seen. The FSU played it safer and got the FG before half.

At the half, I did not think FSU's offense was getting owned. They were facing a very good defense that had made a few great plays and fsu's offense was just a hair off. the unperfect cut block, a high snap, a drop, a receiver running inside instead of out, etc. There was no absurd physical domination going on. For the most part, FSU had seen a lot of formations to stop the run and the deep ball, giving FSU the short stuff to the outside, which Ponder patiently took. Also, Fisher was setting up some stuff for later.

Florida State began to pound the flats. They got into the Pistol and ran the ball with their zone blocking schemes. They made UNC make tackles in space. They did everything to negate UNC's great size. Amazingly, they repeatedly ran 5-man protections (no tight ends or backs blocking) and did very well with it. The line beautifully handled UNC's defensive line in pass protection and gave Ponder the time he needed to through all of his reads.

Drive # 7

Start out with an inside zone to the weak side. Spurlock doesn't get his cutoff. Pryor runs hard for 1 or 2. Swing to Lonnie sets up 3rd and 3. Throw was low. On 3rd and 3, Thomas can't come up with a well placed throw to the outside, though it was a tough catch. Punt coming.

Drive # 8

Came out in 4-wide gun, protection was excellent, Carolina played soft coverage, easy 7 yards to Owens on a hitch. On 2nd and 5, FSU runs their staple, the Smash, and Ponder overthrows it. It was open, Easterling ran a good route. Maybe the only blatantly bad throw Ponder made. You can see Ponder tell Easterling "My Bad." On 3rd and 5 UNC drops 8 into coverage and Ponder hits Owens on a 7 yard hitch. Good patience, good route. No pass pressure from UNC at all on the drive so far. 1-10 and FSU went high-tempo, Outside Zone run to Thomas from the Pistol. NIce blocks from Hudson and McMahon. UNC's front is very good and to get a 10 yard run there was very good. Thomas seemed to run harder after midway through the 2nd. Beautiful flare throw to Thomas for 9. No pressure from UNC, and they are clearly worried about the deep outside now. The middle of the field will be open later in the game. Foreshadowing duh duh duh. On 2nd and 1, Datko gets beat inside and Thompson can't pick up the first down from the gun. Datko's excellent in pass protection but he sometimes struggles in run blocking. On 3rd and short, FSU doesn't screw around and they quickly sneak for the first. On the 1st, FSU is in the gun and there's a lot to see here. Let's go to the tape:

UNC switched into a 3 man line with 4 linebacker types. They zone blitz at the snap, sending 5 rushers and dropping 2 people into coverage, a linebacker and a lineman. FSU's motion is like their 2-back sweep, but UNC is in full-blitz mode and they do not care. Thomas gets an incredible block, but there's one too many to the right side with the overload. FSU's line is trying to shield left but the blitz is coming from the right. Ponder eludes the guy and throws to Fortson who has done a nice job of beating his man and coming back for the ball, but he drops it. That's his 2nd crucial drop this game. Remember too that he has the sloppy screen route leading to the penalty.

So 2nd and 10. Remember when I said the middle of the field would be open later because FSU had run the smash route so well? Yeah, that's now:

Ponder identifies the cover-2, you can see the checks he makes at the line. The 3 middle defenders drop into their zones, while the two safeties each play a deep half. The linebacker does a nice job to funnel Reed to the sideline, expecting the Smash route (Reed running the corner). But this is no corner route. Reed runs the square in, and Ponder rifles it. It's not a great throw, but considering the dropsies the wideouts have had, it was nice of Reed to catch this one. The window between the linebackers is open and you can see it. Also, the protection is great. Nobody near Ponder.

On the resulting 1st down, FSU expects the safety to cheat to the inside more, because of the previous play. And he's just not cheated enough. The ball is thrown a bit high and the coverage is good. Incomplete. On 2nd down, FSU runs the givens end around action, fakes it to Thomas, looks at Givens, but it's a screen! It gets 7 or 8 yards and I like the call. Thought Hudson released a bit early and was overanxious. You know he wants that cut on that corner again. On 3rd and 3, FSU calls the QB draw. The look is crucial:

Notice how the linebackers are peeling to defend the bubble screen to either side. Ponder gets an easy 10.

On 1st and goal, Easterling can't cleanly catch the bubble but does get 1 or 2 yards. The 2nd and goal is 5 wide double slants. Good routes and a good throw for the TD, 13-24.

Drive # 9:

98 yard TD to Owens. This is a hitch-n-go set up by the hitch after hitch FSU threw earlier. It was a 6 man protection, and UNC rushed with 5. Excellent protection and a nice throw from the end zone.

Drive # 10:

Ponder starts to abuse UNC. They tried to cover Bert Reed with a backup linebacker, and that's just not possible. Perfect pass pro. Fortson gets called for a hold on a bubble to Easterling (I think Easty is on his way back, by the way). Bad luck on a middle screen to Easterling as UNC twisted into it. On a 3rd and 7, Ponder hits Owens for a 15 yard post. No idea what coverage UNC was playing. I suspect that backup linebacker blew the coverage. Here you go:

On the next play, UNC is really desperate to make something happen. They are hyper-aggressive. FSU had done a good job running from the Pistol, and Fisher made a masterful call: Pistol play-action Owens Deep Out:

Watch how hard everyone from UNC pursues what they think is a run play. Ponder had his choice of 3 open receivers. The next play is a 9 yard inside zone out of the Pistol. McMahon does an okay job to hold his line. The Thompson runs again for 9, same play, just flipped. Pretty simple stuff.

On the next play, however, McMahon gets blown away and it leads to a 6 yard loss. Drive killer? Maybe.

So on 2nd and 13, Fisher dials up a GREAT play. Throwback tight end screen. FSU executes it perfectly, but Reliford forgets one thing- to use his blockers. He cuts outside and is impatient. Look at what could happen had he been patient:

Bert made a great catch to get FSU into better field goal range, and Hopkins hits it, 23-24.

Drive # 11:

Down, 27-23, Ponder hits Fortson on a deep skinny off a beautiful double release, off play-action. Then Ponder to Fortson on the auto-rollout w/ the off-sides for 10. Then the go-ahead TD:

Initially, I thought Reliford was Ponder's 4th read. In actuality, he seems to be his 2nd read. Ponder's pump fake makes 3 people cover Fortson on the skinny post and nobody is on Reliford for the wide open wheel route. This throw is more difficult than you probably realize. Ponder throws it from the opposite hash. Even though Reliford is essentially a basketball player, even he can catch this ball. The protection was very good as well. Kudos, offensive line.

Drive: # 12 let's close out the game.

Pistol Play-action bootleg to Reed for 4. UNC expected run. Corner remembered being burned by Owens before so he peeled off deep. Reed nice job to stay inbounds. Bubble to Owens for 5.5 Ponder sneak 1st down.

I-Formation, end around action to Chris Thompson for 1. Didn't like getting into the I-formation here. Not at all. One of the lone criticisms I have. Then FSU gets back in the run and runs a great play:

This is essentially play-action QB wrap. FSU is pulling the right tackle, #77 Zebrie Sanders. Ponder fakes the lead sweep, and is going to keep the ball. Excellent job by sanders to blast #52, who was certainly in the backfield much sooner than he expected. Excellent reaction. The rest is Ponder getting 6-7 yards to build momentum before getting the 1st down, which killed more clock.

Back in the I-formation, don't like it. Thompson for 3. FSU not a good I-formation team. 2nd and 7, qb draw for 2. 3rd and 5, QB draw from 5 wide. Eh. Punt, UNC has little time and they can't throw.

Overall Review

Ponder is simply amazing. I'll have an article on him tomorrow. The only QB who is on his level right now is Jimmy Claussen. Fisher called him the best QB in the country. Jake Locker has better physical talents but a ten-cent head right now. McCoy doesn't quite have the wheels or the arm and McCoy looks to the sidelines for his checks. Ponder calls his own game and checks. Tebow might be playing himself out of the draft. Mallet has the huge arm but not the accuracy or intelligence. And Bradford has a bum wing. Sam is brittle. Fisher gives him 3 plays and he checks the offense into the most favorable before the snap. That's a huge advantage. Few teams in college can do that. Ponder showed good arm strength and seems to be all the way back from his knee injury. His throws were on the money at a ridiculous clip. He took very few risks. Nary a ball was close to being intercepted.

It was a miraculous comeback for Florida State and the star was Christian Ponder. The Junior quarterback went 33-40 for 395 yards and 3 Touchdowns with zero interceptions. He was pinpoint and could have easily thrown for 450 yards had he not been victimized by 3 drops and an offensive pass interference call. Ponder might be the best quarterback in the country. You'd be hard-pressed to find one who is playing better. Considering the opponent and situation, Ponder's performance was one for the ages. He posted a QB rating of 190 (NFL equivalent of 133). Ponder finished the game 16-16 for 236 yards.

Jermaine Thomas should probably get the ball more. He has good hands and does a nice job running, but he and all of the backs must run harder. Still, Thomas never lost yards. Chris Thompson for the most part ran hard in the 2nd half. Both backs did a nice job in their blitz pickup. I am not impressed those two or Pryor when it comes to run blocking. I pretty much hate Pryor in the fullback spot. Fisher knows more than me, by a ton, but he needs to quit using Pryor at fullback. He's just not a good player at that spot.

Receivers Rod Owens and Bert Reed has big games. Owens with his 9 catch 199 yard night. Owens was targeted 10 times. He caught 9 balls. 8 of those were successes. 7 of the successes went for a 1st down or a touchdown. His catches were meaningful. Reed was targeted 10 times. He caught 8 balls. 5 of the 8 were not what I consider a "success", but some were tough yards. 3 were very successful. He also made some very tough catches. 74 yards total. Reed also had a false start! Easterling wasn't thrown to much, but he did draw coverage and did his job. His TD catch was nice, and he didn't flinch much knowing he could get hit big. Fortson showed his flashes of brilliance but balanced those with some untimely drops. He caught 4 balls for 56 yards. 3 of the catches were very big. But he was also called for a hold, dropped 2 balls, and his imprecise route on his middle screen was inexcusable. Fortson can be a huge weapon and is the most talented offensive player outside Ponder, but he is maddeningly inconsistent.

As for the offensive line. I thought they played well. Again, consider what they were asked to do and against whom they were asked to perform. UNC's front-7 is exceptional. Anyone watching them play could see that. On 42 passing plays, FSU allowed a sack on only 2. That's a stellar 4.8% sack rate allowed. FSU trailed for 55 of the 60 minutes in this game, and UNC knew they would pass and pass. That makes the line's play all the more impressive. Oh, and FSU often left no backs or tight ends in to protect. Left Tackle Andrew Datko is always technically sound and plays a good game. His pass protection was good. I bet he graded out highly. On the inside zone play to his side, Datko does a nice job of influencing his man and then removing him. He's not impressive physically and needs to be more aggressive, but there isn't a better true sophomore I've seen. Rodney Hudson is rock solid. I love to watch him play. He'll play a perfect game before all is over. Center Ryan McMahon played a much better game than I expected. His pass protection was good. Spurlock is aggressive as always. He mixes great blocks with whiffs. I give him high marks for his work against 1st round lock Marvin Austin. Zebrie continues to improve and you should remember he is a true sophomore. I wish I could give Sanders some of Spurlock's aggressiveness. Sanders must get better at cutting the backside on the run plays.

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina Tarheels Offensive Preview

FSUncensored — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:51:00 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is the only QB in the country to post a QB rating of 150+ against winning teams. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

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Florida State travels to North Carolina in Chapel Hill for the first ESPN Thursday night game at Kenan Stadium. The matchup features the Seminoles boast one of the nation's best offenses, but they will be up against an equally elite defense of the Tar Heels. The game also features the ACC's worst defense (Florida State) against the conference's worst offense (UNC). That's for tomorrow, however, as today I'll discuss the units that keep FSU and UNC in every game.

Left Defensive End 92 - E.J. Wilson (6-2, 280, Sr.)
Left Defensive Tackle 9 - Marvin Austin (6-3, 305, Jr.)
Right Defensive Tackle 93 - Cam Thomas (6-4, 325, Sr.)
Right Defensive End 42 - Robert Quinn (6-5, 270, So.)
Will Linebacker 47 - Zach Brown (6-2, 225, So.)
Mike Linebacker 52 - Quan Sturdivant (6-2, 235, Jr.)
Sam Linebacker 54 - Bruce Carter (6-3, 230, Jr.)
Cornerback 12 - Charles Brown (5-10, 205, Jr.)
Strong Safety 21 - Da'Norris Searcy (6-0, 210, Jr.)
Free Safety 27 - Deunta Williams (6-2, 210, Jr.)
Cornerback 16 - Kendric Burney (5-9, 190, Jr.)

That's quite the imposing lineup.

So just how good is UNC's defense? They are definitely amongst the best ten in the country. Maybe the top 5. Here's their performance in their 4 D1 games:

	at UCONN	E. Carolina U	GTech	U. Virginia
FEI OFFENSE RANK (FSU is 8th)	49	62	2	66
Plays	61	61	77	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.3	3.8
Rushes	31	28	65	37
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	26-15-7	23-7-11		29- 12- 13
Standard 2nd Downs	6-13 (46%)	3-8 (38%)		1-5 (20%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-8 (25%)	5-12 (42%)		4-15 (27%)
Standard 3rd Downs	1-6 (17%)	6-7 (86%)		7-10 (70%)
Passing 3rd Downs	1-8 (13%)	3-11 (27%)		0-9 (0%)
Notes	Had bad snap for -12 yards* 3rd and long, 4 sacks 2 picks Next best defensive performance against UCONN was 4.7 yards per play. UNC held the Huskies to 3.2 yards per play in Connecticut. By far their worst offensive performance of the year.	Killed them on short yardage play action * 2 Plays over 20 yards 1 of only 2 teams to hold ECU under 4 yards per play.	On road in Atlanta, UNC held YellowJackets to 64% of what FSU gave up against Tech in Tallahassee	Many of the failed 2nd downs set up 3rd and 4 or less No plays over 20 yards

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-downs have been removed as they are a non-competitive play.
Passing Down= 2nd & 8+ / 3rd & 5+ / or 4th & 5+
1st Down Success= Gaining 50% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
2nd Down Success= Gaining 70% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
3rd Down Success= Gaining 100% of necessary yardage for 1st down (or TD if in goal to go situations)
Advanced Statistical Ideas are the brainchild of Bill Connelley (RockMNation.com)

So, is this performance Fluky? If not, why are they so good? How can FSU attack them?

Here's how good FSU's Offense is:

Click to enlarge, but you're not seeing things. That is indeed the Seminole Offense at #8 Nationally.

Again, click to enlarge. Yes, FSU's defense is 101st, and UNC's is 10th.

Is UNC's defensive performance fluky? No.

First, be sure to consider their performance from last year. UNC returns 8 starters off last year's excellent defense. Very few realize just how good that defense was. I'll refresh your memory:

In Diagram A, We see that only North Carolina State gave up more total yards per game than UNC. So by that measure, they weren't very good at all.

In Diagram B, we see Brian Fremeau's FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) Opponent Adjusted Defense Measure. That's drive-based, and doesn't measure plays that happen in garbage time (which I like, because I don't care how the defense did when it was up by 24 points in the 4th quarter). I put a lot of weight into this measure, and while it calls the 'Heels only the 4th best defense in the conference, you have to remember that Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had Nationally Elite defenses as well. So by this measure, they were very good. Also, this measure takes into account where the offense starts with the ball (if the offense starts on the defense's 10, it's pretty good to hold to a field goal).

In Diagram C and D, we see Bill Connelley's excellent S&P+ measure, which is the other premier metric for gauging performance. This indicates that UNC was a middle of the conference defense.

So which one do I trust? I discard A, because it doesn't account for how many plays UNC's defense faced, what position the offense put the defense in, or exclude stats from garbage time. So I'll say that UNC's defense was somewhere between B and C/D, which is to say that it was definitely in the top 25 nationally, but probably not top 10.

UNC runs a very conservative scheme under DC Everette Withers, though HC Butch Davis' fingerprints are all over this unit. You'll see lots of two-deep coverage. The corners play a mix of man and zone, and they never press/ play tight without help over the top. [This has changed some] They run a 4-3 look that is mostly gap control and they are huge.

But aside from good coaching and tremendous talent, there's yet another reason they are once again very good:

Tremendous Health

In contrast to their offense (which I will discuss tomorrow), the Tarheel defense has remained remarkably healthy. I couldn't find where any important player missed significant playing time due to injury, and if they have, they are entirely healthy for Thursday Night's game.

Turnovers To Come?

As we know, turnovers are for the most part, not the result of some sportcaster-esque "someone making a play", and instead largely a function of leveraging your opponent into passing downs. UNC hasn't produced those turnovers, yet they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into passing downs. This was tough to diagnose. Against ECU, both sacks for UNC came on first down bootlegs by ECU. The Pirates did a fine job in passing downs, considering the circumstances, a combined 8-23 on passing downs with no turnovers or sacks. Against UConn, they produced 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 3rd and long situations. And against UVA, they produced no sacks or turnovers on 3rd and long (or 2nd and long for that matter). UNC's sacks against UVA largely came when the QB had no pocket presence and ran into the sack. Florida State has done a great job avoiding situational turnovers. With only 1 interception in over 200 pass attempts (an amazing ratio), Christian Ponder has established himself as one of the finest QB's in the country. FSU's turnovers have come via the fumble. FSU fans should be happy about that, as fumbling is much easier to fix than interceptions, particularly when the turnovers are largely a result of an abnormally high fumble lost % (which is luck).

If there is going to be a player who does generate the pressure on those long-downs, it will be Robert Quinn:

The sophomore has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best defensive ends in the ACC. He leads the conference and is seventh in the country with 11 tackles for a loss of 69 yards, and is tied for first with three forced fumbles and also has four quarterback hurries. He's second in the ACC and seventh in the nation with seven sacks for 58 yards. Quinn had a career-high 10 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, at Georgia Tech. He's a big reason why UNC has one of the top two defenses in the conference.

Anyway, Ponder is excellent.

QB's Against at least 5 winning teams- performance in those games.
Name	Team	TD	Int	QB Rating	Yards/G	Yards/Att
Christian Ponder	FSU	9	1	151	292	8
Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	7	3	143	138	8.6
Kirk Cousins	Mich St	6	4	139	220	7.9
Joey Elliott	Purdue	14	10	132	278	7.2
Terrelle Pryor	Ohio State	8	6	131	172	7.5
Jake Locker	Washington	11	6	128	243	7.2
Tyler Sheehan	BGSU	7	3	123	291	6.2
Adam Weber	Minnesota	5	6	123	201	7.2
Ricky Stanzi	Iowa	7	6	121	208	6.8
Jameel Sewell	Virginia	5	5	119	191	7.1
Greg Paulus	Syracuse	6	10	116	183	6.5
Paul McCall	FIU	9	5	114	236	5.8
Juice Williams	Illinois	4	4	112	177	6.2

Among QB's who have faced at least 5 winning teams, Ponder is the only QB with a QB rating of 150+ and he averages the most yards per contest.

The Irresistible force v. the Immovable Object? Basically.

So how do they get it done? It all starts up front.

Defensive Line

The 'Heels are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, which has been a trademark of Butch Davis teams from his days at Miami (both times), to his stint with the Dallas Cowboys, etc. His defensive line coach is the highly regarded Jon Blake. They return every starter and backup, and are very very talented. This will be one of the toughest challenges the Florida State line will face this year. Let's run through the group.

At Defensive Tackle, the Tar heels have a pair of absolute studs in 6'4" 325lb Senior Cam Thomas, and 6'3" 300lb Junior Marvin Austin. Thomas is the space eater, and he'll play in the NFL because he has a low center of gravity. He's a load and Florida State's All-Conference Center Ryan McMahon must be able to stymie him. Often times Thomas draws a double team, and that allows Austin, arguably the most talented defensive tackle in the conference and a likely 1st round draft choice, to work against a single blocker. Austin is explosive to be sure, but needs to have a more consistent motor. I have no doubt he'll be up against the 'Noles and Austin is a serious candidate for ALL-ACC Consideration. FSU's All-America Guard Rodney Hudson against Marvin Austin will be a great battle to watch. So UNC has two NFL defensive tackles, one of whom is a serious 1st round talent. They also have Senior Aleric Mullins (6'3" 305) and Sophomore Tydreke Powell (6'3" 305), both of whom will log 10-15 snaps per game. It's safe to say UNC is loaded at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, UNC is similarly huge, though less proven. At Strongside End, the 'Heels have 6'2" 280lb Senior E.J. Wilson. He's their "edge" player, setting the edge and turning the play back toward the pursuit. He's backed up by 6'6" 260lb Quintin Coples, who was an all-world recruit. Coples is very raw, but he is unquestionably talented and has 1st round draft choice written all over him if he can put it together. At Weakside End, the Tar Heels have a really great story. 6'5" 260lb Sophomore Robert Quinn overcame brain cancer (I believe it was bran cancer) to have a great season last year and his stock is rising every day. He'll go against Andrew Datko and is the Heels' most improved lineman. Quinn is an excellent edge rusher, though I do think he lucked into a few of his sacks.

So this group is huge and talented. This line will throw fresh talented bodies at the offense on almost every down. Football fans and NFL scouts will be focused on the line of scrimmage in this one, and I honestly don't know who will win this battle of well coached talent. They are great against the run and very good against the pass (an improvement over last season).

Fun fact: the Heels are 2nd in the country in tackles for loss. Over 13% of opponent's plays go for negative yardage.

Linebacker

While not quite the group that the defensive line is, UNC's linebackers are top notch. 6'2" 235lb Junior Quan Sturdivant shifted from Weakside backer to the middle spot for this season. His production has exploded as he is protected from blockers by the defensive tackle duo in front of him. He's similar to London Fletcher in that he's has excellent side to side range. Sturdivant is going to be an ALL-ACC Player and is currently projected as a 2nd round draft choice, listed as the 3rd best outside linebacker in the country.

At Strongside Linebacker is Bruce Carter, a great athlete with improving instincts (he was a quarterback in high school). He's 6'3" 230 and is very good in pass coverage when he guesses right (watching these UNC linebackers, they are all decent in pass coverage). He's another guy who is a lock to be a 1st day selection (1st 3 rounds), with the potential to be a late first or early second rounder. Butch Davis is great at recruiting defensive talent, as he did at Miami, and I definitely see his imprint on these linebackers. Carter also has a legit shot to be ALL-ACC, though the writers typically don't take two from the same team.

The only question at linebacker is at the weakside linebacker spot, and depth. Zach Brown is an undersized (6'2" 225') sophomore who is very raw. He sort of sticks out on film as the weak link. He's not a bad player, but compared to the other monsters in the front-7, he's doesn't quite measure up.

Front-7 Size

While UNC isn't afraid to bring the safety down into the box to stop the run, playing cover-1 or cover-3, they would prefer not to do that, and they rarely have to. And one way they are enable to accomplish this (stopping the run with 7 and not 8 men), is with great size.

We've done a lot of work on this, and you can read out 3-part series "Does Size Matter" here: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Here's what you need to know, there were 6 defenses that had a combined front-7 size of more than 1860lbs: Alabama, South Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Southern Cal, and... North Carolina. All of those defenses were elite, all have numerous highly regarded NFL prospects, and all forced a lot of turnovers by stopping the run with their size and forcing teams into 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations. UNC checked in at 1865lbs. A defense that size is just hard to move out of the way and they don't need the extra run defender in the form of a safety. When your focus as a safety is on the pass and stopping the run is an afterthought, you will play well against the pass. There is a much more detailed explanation in the linked articles above. This year, their front-7 should be among the biggest in the country again, weighing in at 1860lbs.

The Secondary

As I said, these guys had a bunch of interceptions last year (top 10 nationally), but are they really that good? I don't think so. None are high up on draft lists despite being draft eligible, and they definitely benefit from the scheme and an excellent front-7.

At the corner position, they have 5'9" Kendric Burney, who is a good college corner with quick hips who had 13 pass breakups last season. At the other corner they feature Junior 5'10" Charles Brown, who was All-ACC in 2007 but got banged up last year and lost his job to 5'10" Senior Jordan Hembry, who played well last year. I don't think these corners are all that special, and FSU fans hope they can match up 6'3" 232lb Super-Recruit Jarmon Fortson with Burney, as Fortson has a considerable size advantage along with his freakish athleticism. So the corners are above average or good, but definitely not great. I should note that their corners tackle well.

At Safety, UNC is lamenting the loss of Tramane Goddard, their 2nd Team All-American Safety. He was a good college player, but he was an ALL-AMERICAN because of his interceptions, which is often a poor way to judge a player, particularly a safety. In any case, he wasn't drafted and I think they overestimate his loss. Replacing him at strong safety will be Da'Norris Searcy, a 6'0" 210' Junior who UNC fans are pretty high on. He's a good athlete but I haven't seen him making a bunch of plays. He's definitely the better athlete than Goddard was, but he doesn't have the instincts yet apparently. At Free Safety, they have Deunta Williams. I like Williams, he's now a Junior and won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007. He's their best secondary player from what I have seen (though they will tell you it's Burney). Christian Ponder will need to look him off, particularly when throwing plays designed to split their cover-2. Still, none of these guys seem all that special. There's no standout NFL type talent here.

For more on UNC's secondary, check this article out: UNC Butch Davis Coverage Schemes

Observations

I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in some of the things that East Carolina and Virginia did on offense. Certainly there are things UNC did to limit them, but ECU and UVA really shot themselves in the foot. I am going to focus on Virginia and East Carolina because UConn isn't really similar to what FSU does and Georgia Tech is obviously dissimilar. UVA dropped 2 bubble screens and misfired on several more. The whole point of a spread offense is to demand respect. If you refuse to or prove that you cannot throw to the man split out wide, you might as well just use an extra tight end or a fullback because the defense won't have to respect that player and you put yourself at a numerical disadvantage. UVA really messed up in that area. Let's use a picture to illustrate.

Ponder throws the bubble so well that he could play for Oregon. Because FSU will become more of a spread team with the loss of elite tight end Caz Piurowski, they must force UNC to account for all the men split out wide. More on this later, but UVA and ECU and even UConn got terrible QB play.

Run and Gun

I don't want to see Ponder under center much in this game. FSU needs to commit to the spread approach and go all-spread, all-gun, all game. And they need to run the ball from the gun and stay committed to running it from the gun (unless of course, UNC, by alignment, simply gives FSU the pass all day, which they might.)

The 'Nole line is extremely quick and very intelligent. They are bigger and stronger this year, as last year they were the youngest offensive line in the country. They will not try to blow UNC's line off the ball (nobody can), but rather turn them and gash them. Still, this will be no easy task and quite the battle, as UNC is quite good against the run.

Virginia actually had a lot of success running the ball from the spread. The Cavs had 17 runs of five or more yards. They also had a good bit of tackles for loss, but I happen to think a good portion of those were a result of their offense being horrible (definitely outside the top 80 in the country. They used 3 QB's in the game, etc.)

In order for FSU to run on UNC they must do an excellent job of cut blocking. Rodney Hudson is one of the best cutters I have ever seen, but this must be a collective effort. Cutting will decrease the aggressiveness of some of UNC's defenders, and can also start to wear on them. Nobody has done a good job of cutting these guys yet, except for GTech of course.

There is some precedent for running from the gun against UNC. Last year, against an elite UNC defense about as good as this one (maybe a bit better), West Virginia and NC State gashed them for 31 and 41 points respectively. FSU's offense is at least as good as those two were. The key will be to run Ponder early, make UNC respect Ponder's legs, and then let Thomas go to work. Remember that Ponder should be fully healthy for this game, and UNC might have forgotten about this kid's tremendous legs. He's FSU's best running QB since Charlie Ward.

Finally, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Pistol.

The Passing Game

FSU can throw the ball on UNC. So far, UNC has seen nothing but really poor qb play. The plays were often there to be made by UVA and ECU, and their QB's just didn't take advantage. Additionally, UNC doesn't have the ability to simulate what FSU does in practice at anything approaching a similar level (if they did, those kids would be playing).

Last year, UNC played a lot of man-under coverage (2 deep safeties, man underneath), and some cover-3. This year, they haven't seen any decent wideouts, and as a result, they have mixed it up. I was shocked when I fired up the DVR.

They have been playing a lot of man coverage with only 1 or even no deep safety! Look at the picture above. For whatever reason, UNC has become a blitz happy defense. Now, is that just something they wanted to show their future opponents, knowing it wouldn't matter in the games in which they showed it? Could it be that they are desperate to force a turnover or big play knowing that their offense is terrible? I'm not sure.

What I am sure is that if they try that against Florida State, Ponder will have a field day. Remember that this is the look Ponder has practiced against every day for the past 3 years against Mickey Andrews' old school defense. The alignments UNC has trotted out just won't fly against FSU. I would expect UNC to force FSU to establish the run before the Heels come out in something like this. They have to respect FSU's wideouts. They will play lots of cover-2 and cover-3. If they do come out in this, expect 1 or 2 long bombs, probably up the seam, to get them out of that look.

UNC has also blitzed their corners a lot. FSU's RB corps will need to do a good job of picking up UNC's blitzes, because in a game like this, it will be tough enough to move the ball.

FSU might break out some no-huddle here. We saw WVU do it last season. NCST did it as well, and ECU and UVA did it too (though their offenses were horrible).

In addition to the bubble screens, FSU needs to throw some RB screens. UNC hasn't done a good job defending RB screens to date, and with FSU's incredibly athletic offensive line, there should be some great opportunities to hit some plays. It also serves as a regulator of UNC's aggressiveness.

This is out of place, but UNC hasn't faced anything even resembling a downfield passing game yet. I would like to see FSU match up on UNC's safeties in the downfield game. Perhaps TE Reliford could be big here?

Ponder's ability to check could be huge in this game. FSU often calls 2-3 different plays in the huddle, and Ponder then selects the correct one.

I don't want to make this defense seem unbeatable. They are not, but they are very good. And they are at home, at night, on a Thursday, behind a sellout crowd, and will be well rested. The 'Noles offense will probably see more 2nd and 8+/ 3rd and 5+ situations than they like, and I suspect it will take a broken tackle or two leading to a big play for the 'Noles to get the win. Methodically marching the ball on this defense likely isn't an option. Expect FSU to spread them out and make them account for all 11 offensive players by running the quarterback, and make no mistake about it, FSU will need to throw the ball to win. That's difficult to do in 2nd/3rd and long, so I expect FSU to throw the ball early, ala Bill Walsh. I do think UNC can be beaten by throwing on early downs. We saw Notre Dame do that to them last season, as well as NC State and West Virginia. The real key is to get their big guys to play in space in situations where they do not know they will be playing in space (aka not in 2nd and 3rd and long!).

Offensive Prediction: FSU will get 6.2 yards per play, which is 17% more than any offense has put on Carolina this season. How many plays FSU gets is dependent on a lot of factors. If they get 60 plays, that's 360 yards. If they get 75 plays, that's 465 yards. If FSU can put up 6 yards per play on this defense, I will be extremely pleased.

The Preview Part 2: South Florida's Defense v. Florida State's Offense- with Prediction

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:25:04 -0000

So you read my take on USF's offense against Florida State's defense. One slight addendum to that preview. I know some people on the Western Kentucky team that USF beat. Central Arkansas beat Western Kentucky 28-7 IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. They said that Tennessee's offensive line was much better than USF's offensive line, and that USF's offensive line wasn't much better than that of Central Arkansas. Now let's flip the script. The 'Noles have one of the best offenses in the nation. Against Ranked opponents this season, Florida State is averaging over 450 yards and 44 points. They are talented and smooth. I'll do this like I did the previous installment. Breaking down their defense and what FSU will do to attack it. Finally, I'll have a quick look at the special teams and make a prediction.

This summer I wrote:

Strategy: The Bulls are a 4-3 base team and they do not hesitate to bring an 8th defender into the box to help with run support. They aren't blitz crazy nor are they uber-conservative.

Coach: The Bulls' Defensive Coordinator is Joe Tresey who took over for Wally Burnham after Burnham took the Iowa State job. Tresey was at Cincinatti before this and is highly thought of in some coaching circles and he can be very aggressive. Additionally, HC Jim Leavitt is a defensive minded coach and has a lot of input with his favored unit.

2008

Bulls' Defense Overall Run Defense Pass Defense

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.
39th

S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link. 38th 10th 78th

S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only 3rd 2nd 6th

If you are curious as to what these numbers mean, click on the links. Just know that they are widely accepted by professional gamblers and other people who study the game for their living as the best and most consistent measures of performance.

Front 7

USF's defensive line is the best in the Big East. Phil Steele calls them the 6th best defensive line in the nation. Simply put, they are loaded.

USF loses Defensive End Jarriett Buie and his 5 sacks (all in Big East play). He was a solid contributor and started all 13 games for the Bulls. The only other loss is Sampson Genus, a defensive tackle who is now competing for a spot at center.

At right end is Super Senior George Selvie, a 6'4" 250lb terror who passed up the NFL draft to return to the Bulls. He's a two-time All-American and a favorite to win multiple national awards. As a three year starter (37 games) he has 186 tackles, 60 for loss, and over 20 sacks. He was hampered by injury last year, but when healthy, he's in the conversation for the best defensive end in America. Selvie is just one of the elite pass rushers Florida State Freshman All America Offensive Tackle Andrew Datko will face this year as the 'Noles confront America's toughest schedule.

At the other end position (replacing Buie) are senior Aaron Harris and junior Craig Marshall, along with Jason Pierre-Paul. Harris is a tweener at 6'4" 265lbs and has played defensive tackle for some of his career. He's a more natural end and everyone in USFs program raves about him. He had an excellent sophomore season and is considered the front runner to man the strongside end position by many. Craig Marshall is more of a pass rushing specialist at 6'5 260 and needs to refine his game, particularly by getting in the weight room. He did play in every game last season and had 4.5 tackles for loss. If he makes improvements this offseason, he could overtake Harris. Even if he doesn't start, he will play a lot of snaps for the Bulls. The real wild card here is Paul-Pierre, a stud JUCO transfer (top JUCO defensive lineman in the country). Pierre-Paul stands 6' 5" 265 and some believe he will take the starting spot, mostly based off his impressive film, frame, and recruiting profile. David Bedford had a nice spring game and should also contend for playing time.

At Nose Guard the Bulls have juniorTerrell McClain. At 6'3" and 306lbs, he earned playing time as a freshman and continues to dominate for USF. Both strong and quick, FSU fans should compare him to Moses McCray. McClain should expect to be 1st team Big East in his second season as a starter.

At the other tackle is Rs.Fr. Cory Grissom (6'2" 289lbs), who hurt his ankle early in the season and missed the rest of the season. He has great quickness and athleticism, but is obviously quite raw. Backing him up is 5' 11" 267lb Sophomore Keith McCaskill. He has a good wingspan and is very quick.

NOTE: There is a chance Harris will play tackle not end, so keep that in mind. The coaches are hoping that Grissom can get the job done at tackle, but if he can't or if some of the other ends blow up, Harris could end up back at tackle.

All in all, this is an excellent defensive line with multiple players who could eventually play in the NFL.

.

Linebacker

The departed: USF lost First Team all-Big East Strongside 'backer Tyrone McKenzie, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14.5), to go with a sack, a pick, and eight pass breakups. He is the only significant loss.

USF will still have a strong linebacker corps, and it starts with Senior middle linebacker Kion Wilson, an 11 game starter as a junior at 6'2" 235. He is the big hitter who started 11 games a year ago. His backup will be Michael Lanaris, 6'1" 230 and one of the better linebackers in Florida coming from 2007.

Senior Chris Robinson is currently projected to replace the departed McKenzie on the strong side. At 6'3" 240lbs, he is an decent force player who had a good spring. Some USF fans aren't pleased with him, however, and wonder if he will ever put it all together. A former defensive end, he's an excellent blitzer but also has limited range and is the guy the Bulls pull when facing a 3, 4, or 5 wideout set. Also competing for the job is JUCO stud JaQuan Williams. Phil Steele projects Williams to start at one of the outside backer spots, but I'm not sure on that. Needless to say, he is talented. Sam Barrington and Armando Sanchez also factor in here, but their roles are undetermined right now.

At weakside linebacker, the Bulls will plug in 6' 0" 230lb junior Sabbath Joseph, who played in ever game last season, but not as a starter. He's excellent in coverage but is a bit on the small side and can struggle getting off blocks. Backing him up will be 6' 3", 222lb Senior Donte Spires. He was an excellent JUCO recruit who played well in 2007 and was ineligible last year (academics- redshirt). Don't be surprised if he starts.

Overall this is a decent linebacker corps. None would start for Florida State, Miami, or UF, but they are good.

Lack of Sacks

One thing that was really puzzling to me was USF's lack of sacks. The disparity in their run and pass defense was huge, as they were 10th against the run and 78th against the pass. The Bulls had only 23 sacks in 401 passing plays (sack rate of 6.1%). Part of the reason was Selvie being banged up, but other players also must step up. If they don't, look for the Bulls to blitz more.

I was pretty accurate here. Let's discuss the changes

Along the defensive line, Pierre Paul is starting at left end. The other starters are of course Selvie, McClain, and Grissom. I haven't been particularly impressed with Grissom and he could be exploited. This is still a talented defensive line, but they haven't played quite as well as I expected. The decision to start Pierre-Paul could make them more stout against the run (he started last game and is expected to start Saturday.) He's a very talented player who wanted to play for FSU but was turned away by the lazy defensive coaching staff. At this point, I don't expect to see DT McClain make 1st team All-Big East, but 2nd team is possible. Harris is the backup to Grissom.

At linebacker, it is exactly the same. I will note two things. First, Jacquian Williams, the backup strong side backer is really quick and plays some rush end on passing downs. He's # 57. Second, these guys like to run around a lot, but for their size, they should be better at taking on and shedding blocks. WKU did a nice job getting them blocked on the 2nd level.

As far as the lack of sacks, well, that hasn't really been remedied. USF has played two horrible D1-AA teams, and WKU, a provisional 1A school in Western Kentucky who lost to Central Arkansas 28-7, AT HOME. This year they have 5 sacks on 72 opponent pass plays, a sack on 6.9% of pass plays faced. That'd be good over a season, but that is ridiculously poor against the people they faced. FSU's offensive line is great in pass protection, having allowed only 4 sacks on 108 pass plays. That's a great % of 3.6. And that was against two nationally ranked teams. USF is going to need someone other than Selvie to step up.

FSU has the most athletic offensive line in the country. They can block USF's front 7. I am pretty confident in that. Now, USF's defensive line is much much better than BYU's so it won't be the complete domination we saw in Provo Utah. Their tackles aren't as good as Miami's but their defensive ends are better. That's fine. I'd much much much much rather play against good ends than good tackles.

Before we talk more strategy, let's have a look at USF's Secondary. Over summer, I wrote:

Secondary

Having that extreme dedication to stopping the run does cost USF, however, as their 78th ranked pass defense indicates. USF asks a lot of it's defensive backs (probably too much). That approach could prove interesting this year.

The Departed: USF loses strong safety Carlton Williams, who was their defensive player of the year with his 56 tackles and 3 interceptions. Williams played well for the Bulls, but he wasn't an elite talent and will not be playing pro ball. They also lost one-year starter Tyller Roberts at cornerback, and underrated safety Louis Gachette.

What they're working with:

At boundary corner, USF returns Senior Jerome Murphy. The 6'1" 190lb Murply had an amazing 67 tackles from his corner position to go with his 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He is lightning quick and a coach favorite and should compete for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-conference honors. His backup is redshirt freshman George Baker.

At field corner will probably be sophomores Quenton Washington and Tyson Butler. Both are average talents who will be tested early and often. They have potential but must work on their consistency.

USF played over half their 2008 snaps in a Nickel formation (5 defensive backs), so the nickel corner position is vital to their defense (or it was last year). The loser of the Washington/ Butler competition will square off against redshirt freshman Jon Lejiste. The field and nickel corner spots are big unknowns for the bulls team and depth could be an issue (though not against FSU, because USF shouldn't suffer much attrition prior to the 'Nole game due to their pathetic opening schedule).

The bulls have a stud in Free safety Nate Allen. He's 6' 2" 205lbs and a serious NFL prospect. Allen will be counted on to be the leader of this group. He had 53 tackles last year, but the bulls would like to be able to use him in more of a centerfield role. Of course, that will depend on their ability to stop the run without over-committing their defensive backs to the run game, similar to how FSU wasn't able to showcase Myron Rolle because the 'Noles needed him to help with their run defense. Allen is a candidate for the Thorpe award.

After starting South Florida's bowl game in December, the sophomore Jerrell Young will take on the starting job at strong safety. Like Allen, he's also 6'2" 205lbs and is a huge hitter. Young has a lot of talent but must put it together quickly. USF wants to have allen focus more on the pass and use Young as their 8th defender against the run.

Consistency is really the name of the game for the Bulls secondary. The new defensive coordinator likes to be very aggressive, and that should work because this secondary is already hyper-aggressive. It could hurt the Bulls, however, when teams hit them deep with double moves.

There are some major changes here. The bulls suffered a major injury to promising sophomore safety Jerrell Young (broken arm). As I noted, he was expected to be their top run defender from the secondary. That necessitated some moves. Murphy was such a good tackler that they decided to move him from his Boundary corner spot to strong safety to replace Jerrell Young. He'll be okay there. But other positions are up in the air.

The Bulls are playing more 4-3 and less 4-2-5 this year, and that was a wise decision in the Spring, though they couldn't have done it in anticipation of Young's injury. It was just preference. The corner positions will be filled with Freshman Webster, Baker, and sophomore Washington (who has been injured with an ankle but is expected back. Butler is also in the mix. Interestingly, when they go to their nickel look, they will put Murphy at Nickel corner and then insert promising redshirt frosh John Lejiste in Murphy's vacated strong safety spot. I am not impressed with the corners for USF- they are both freshmen, but the safety tandem is impressive.

As much as I would like to see FSU spread out the Bulls, I really don't expect them to. I would like to match FSU's 3rd and 4th wideout against 3 redshirt or true freshmen corners for USF. But I don't think it will happen. QB Christian Ponder is in a knee brace and multiple commenter's have noted that he has been limping around campus all week. I have to be honest here- Early this week, I expected E.J. Manuel to start. Ponder's legs are a big part of his game and the Noles offense, but he is also an excellent passer. Everyone expects FSU to shoot Ponder up and start him. There won't be a lot of 4-wide, because Ponder likes to run out of that set so often. He is under strict orders not to run, but the guy will be so amped when they shoot him up, and it's his nature to run. I hope he can avoid further injury.

Also note: he banged up the knee in the 2nd quarter against BYU. It wasn't the result of him being in with a 24 point lead.

What I do expect to see is more like the Denver Broncos or USC. Under center, with 1RB, 1TE, and 3WR's, or 2TE, 2WR's. I really don't want to see a lot of I-Formation. Using the two-tight end set could cause USF some serious problems. Selvie likes to play very wide, and the tight end to his side could force him to make difficult choices.

FSU can run out of both the sets I mentioned. They can also use some 3WR 1TE 1RB Shotgun. WIth the 3WR look, the Bubble Screen option will be available should USF decide not to account for the slot receiver. Here's an example, see the yellow circle to indicate the empty space.

Their linebacker must account for the slot receiver if they stay in their 4-3 base defense. If they get out of that 4-3 base defense, FSU will rip them over and over again with the run. The key will be for their linebacker to split the difference, that is, play far enough out to discourage FSU from throwing the bubble, but not too far as to take himself out of position against the run.

I like FSU to come out and establish the run. It should work. However, because USF's defense is decent, they will probably get some tackles for loss. FSU won't be able to stay out of long down and distance situations the entire game. They will continue to control the ball and keep the defense off the field, however.

While USF has not shown to be a blitz heavy team this season, their DC does have that tendency and FSU needs to be aware of that (they are). I anticipate USF getting frustrated against the run and doing several thigns against which FSU should be able to take advantage. First, they will probably send some run blitzes (different from pass blitzes). To counteract this, look for FSU to bring back the screens over the middle to Fortson and Goodman. These middle screens are highly effective because FSU's offensive line is so athletic, allowing them to block faster players in the open field. Someone once said that the only new thing in football in the past 30 years is the middle screen, as it basically allows the offense to run a kickoff return from scrimmage.

The other thing they will do is stack the box. Murphy (strong safety, but a converted corner) will come up into the box, particularly against the 2TE formations. They will play Allen (free safety) very deep when they do this. While putting more men in the box is effective for stopping the run, it also has a disadvantage: long runs. The reason for this is simply geometry. A player closer to the line doesn't have the angle to catch a player if he breaks a run. He also has less reaction time. If anyone watches the SEA@SF game last weekend, you saw Frank Gore break two 80+ yard runs against the Seahawk defense because he cleared the first wave of defenders and had only one safety to beat, not two, because Seattle played 8 and sometimes even NINE! men in the box.

Additionally, I look for more play-action this week. Getting the ball out of Ponder's hands will be important, because we don't want him taking shots, but another way is to use play-action to make the defense think run before they start rushing the passer. That could put USF in a bind. Their corners are 5'11", 5'11", and 5'10". Everyone lies in media guides, so I am guessing at least one of those kids is really 5'9". Jarmon Fortson is a legit 6'3" and is a beast for a freshman to handle. If FSU can freeze USF on play action, they have an opportunity for a huge play. Ponder must remember to look off Free Safety Nate Allen, who is a legit NFL 2nd round type safety.

Over Summer I wrote:

Can the Bulls improve on their 2008 defense? It really depends. Most likely USF will take a step back in run defense and improve somewhat in pass defense. Their 2008 disparity (10th and 78th) was silly and unlikely to happen again. They will be better if their front 7 can stop the run without much help and their front 4 can generate a solid pass rush. If they continue to throw everything at the run and hang their defensive backs out to dry, however, they could have a rough year, depending on whether the corners can handle their responsibilities. I look for USF's defense to again be top 40 nationally (39th last year), with a run defense in the top 25 and a pass defense that climbs back into the top half nationally. They should have a top 4 defense in the Big East. If the Bulls are to have a shot at winning in Tallahassee, they must have a great defensive performance, selling out for the run grabbing a few turnovers.

It is so tough to judge what USF has done this year. I generally agree with what the above said, except I don't know about their run defense as much now. They will probably be more conservative because of their freshmen corners.

Finally, special teams.

USF has a huge kicker problem. Last season they were 71st in the nation in terms of points earned and points expected from their kicking game. They had solved the problem, but their solution broke his back falling of a Busch Gardens ride. So it's going to be a freshman walk-on or Delbert Alvarado who is just terrible.

1 Florida State 0.107

2 Syracuse 0.086

5 UCLA 0.052

8 Miami 0.045

10 Wisconsin 0.038

11 LSU 0.037

16 North Carolina State 0.021

23 Texas 0.016

29 Pittsburgh 0.012

37 Duke 0.008

44 Florida 0.004

48 Clemson 0.001

51 Virginia Tech 0

52 Vanderbilt -0.002

53 Maryland -0.002

56 BYU -0.004

57 North Carolina -0.005

61 USC -0.006

70 Georgia Tech -0.012

71 South Florida -0.012

83 Rutgers -0.021

93 Virginia -0.029

94 Wake Forest -0.029

106 Boston College -0.044

120 Auburn -0.093

USF should go for every 4th down if at all possible.

Both teams have very good return units and poor kick and punt coverage units.

I expect FSU to get 34 points. FSU should start fast, then USF will adjust and counterpunch and catch up, then FSU has to throw their counters and the offense should be enough to put pressure on USF's offense and force them into mistakes. While I think the potential for a blowout is definitely there, it will only happen if FSU gets a bit early lead. I just don't think the offense goes for 50+, because USF is a decent defense, and because Ponder running and the threat of Ponder running is a decent part of FSU's offense.

34-27 Noles is my pick.

Offensive Player of the game: Andrew Datko.

Defensive Player of the game: NIgel Bradham (must play really well).

The Conversation: Talking USF @ Florida State with TheBullsPen.com

FSUncensored — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:28:37 -0000

This week's guest is TheBullsPen.com. It's a forum, and we've never had a Q&A with a forum before. After reaching out to some USF beat writers, and getting no response, we turned to these guys. Their response was very good. If you're a USF fan finding this on google, you need to get to TheBullsPen.com ans sign up. It's a nice community and they are pretty serious about their football.

Waylon Jennings & Hank Williams Jr - The Conversation (via Slasheri)

There's a story behind the clip. People said we needed to use more youtube clips. I happen to like Waylon and when you type "the conversation" into youtube, this is what you get.

First up, USF's questions to us:

With FSU's revent struggles with mobile QBs how do you think they will deal with USF's type of spread where an athletic QB and his ability to hurt you running or passing is the centerpiece?

I don't think this FSU defense is any good. It's easily the worst in my lifetime (born '85). They rely on a lot of young kids, who mix great plays with boneheaded decisions. There are some encouraging signs, however. First, FSU has an excellent gun-run game, so the defense has now had an entire spring and fall camp to see this look. Second, the defensive interior is bigger, which should help. Third, FSU now has three legit linebackers, as compared to last season which saw FSU scramble and convert two safeties to the linebacker position to make up for some early entries to the NFL and some injuries.

If there is one unit on offense or defense that FSU must contain to beat USF , which would it be? What do you feel will FSU's biggest advantage will be on Saturday, biggest weakness? What are your 3 keys to victory, for both teams?

I'll try to profile this in Friday's preview (it's worth the wait, trust me), but FSU obviously can't just allow any unit to run wild. I'll say the contain game. USF RsFr. QB B.J. Daniels has a big arm, but he can be erratic and lacks touch, so FSU has to make him sit in the pocket and not allow him to scramble around.

FSU's biggest advantage, outside of home field, should be their offensive line. Staying in good down and distance will be key. I also think FSU has an advantage with their 3rd and 4th wideout against USF's 3rd and 4th corner. If USF is going to win this game, they must run the ball very well to get FSU into some more favorable coverages. To that end, USF's offensive line has to play well.

I'll discuss this more in-depth Friday, but USF must establish the run, find play calling balance (not try to do too much or too little as to be predictable), and must sell-out against the run. FSU just needs to run the ball, not try to do too much on offense, and not allow big special teams plays.

How do you stop George Selvie?

Selvie is a good pass rusher. FSU will block him with Sophomore Andrew Datko. Datko was a freshman All-American a season ago and has picked up where he left off. Over summer, I profiled the insane slate he'd face this season. Selvie had a great Sophomore year, but was a disappointment last season, probably because he was injured. Datko has excellent technique and I am not overly worried about this matchup because Selvie doesn't have much of a bull-rush move. Datko can handle a guy who tries to get around the corner every time. He's 6'6" 291, so occasionally he will struggle against an elite defensive end who has a strong bull-rush move to compliment the outside stuff. I also expect FSU to run right at Selvie, because he does not like to play the run from what I have seen.

For more of our responses, to answer a few of their questions, and to see TheBullsPen's excellent answers, continue reading!

I can't think of a more baffling team in the country right now than yours. They've yo-yoed up and down the first three weeks, and I don't think anyone expected them to torch BYU the way they did after their near-death experience with Jacksonville State. Which game that you've played so far, if any, represents the true 2009 Seminoles?

I recently told Andy Staples of SI: you can choose to judge their two games against ranked D1 competition, or you can choose to look at a game they played against Jax State under circumstances that many teams will face this season, just not as extreme as the Noles faced.

After three games, FSU is 118th against the pass in I-A - only UAB and Washington State have given up more yards. Is that an illusion, or are there issues in the back seven that haven't been addressed?

The issues in my mind are along the defensive line, which has played poorly. Considering what has been asked of them, I think the secondary has played okay. FSU has asked its guys to play straight man coverage for 5 or 6 seconds, and nobody can do that (though Patrick Robinson has played very well and pretty much locked down his side, as the top corner in the nation should do.) But you also have to consider who they played. MIami's dynamic offense, BYU's very impressive attack (which by the way, FSU did hold to only 21 points before the Noles pulled their starters). They also faced the top QB recruit in the country and the MVP of the SEC championship game in Ryan Perriloux for Jax State. There's not another team that has faced similar competition to date. There are issues, but that ranking isn't indicative of FSU's performance, because it doesn't adjust for competition level.

- I'm not going to lie, if USF were ever to replace one of the "Big 3" in Florida, many Bulls fans think FSU would be the one getting replaced. With Mickey Andrews saying he wants to retire at the end of the season, and Bowden looking more like a coach emeritus every year, how concerned are you about the long-term health of the program? How much faith does the average FSU fan have in Jimbo Fisher when Bobby finally retires?

I was very concerned in 2004-2007, but FSU has a stadium,, tradition, and now has a plan. They have to deal with one more year of this Bowden nonsense, but I don't think people realize all that goes in to making a program, particularly the booster base, stadium, recruiting, a conference, etc. I think USF has a shot to be the .5 in the Fla 3.5 Everyone inside the program and most knowledgeable outsiders will tell you that losing Andrews and Bowden represents an immeasurable upgrade. Jimbo Fisher saved Florida State at a time when most didn't realize how bad the program was internally, with a lot of behind the scenes stuff that I don't have enough space to describe. The improvements he's made, particularly in recruiting and organization structure, and the improvements he will make in this and next off-season will lay the groundwork for sustained play at the highest level. I understand that many don't think Miami would be replaced, but they don't have a stadium and rumor has it that their booster contributions are way, way down.

It seems like the light bulb clicked on inside Christian Ponder's head this offseason. What improvements has he made from last year to this year that have made him so effective?

I'm going to brag a bit here. Tomahawk Nation was probably the only site not to get on the "Ponder Sux11!!11!1" bangwagon a season ago. Now, we do have some coaches (not FSU's coaches, haha) who write for us, so that helps. We identified the problem of a year ago: the youngest offensive line in America (3 true freshmen, two sophomores), which while good at run blocking, was poor in pass protection. FSU had to scheme around their offensive line, and Fisher rightfully won the ACC offensive coordinator of the year award for delivering the top offense in the conference despite the line. In the off-season, we broke it down and wondered whether the offensive line would take that next leap. We said that they likely would. So far so good, as FSU has the best offensive line in the ACC and one of the best in the nation. Ponder looks like a completely new quarterback, the best FSU has had in a decade, and he'll be running the 2nd best offense USF has ever faced (the Oregon team in the Sun Bowl a few years ago was very special).

Are you more or less confident in slowing down USF's offense with B.J. Daniels under center than you would have been if Grothe were playing? Why?

Tough question. Over the summer, I wrote:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

I didn't mean to jinx him, USF fans, honest. I'll split on this. If FSU shreds USF's defense like they did to Miami and BYU, then USF would be better off having Grothe, because I think he is less likely to have a completely embarrassing and career/program scaring meltdown than B.J. Daniels.

But if USF starts to volley with FSU, then I think USF fans should prefer Daniels, a kid with better physical tools, probably just making plays, and gaining confidence as the game goes on.

Many of us are also Bucs fans, and we'd like to thank you all for Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn, among others. Which current Noles do you think we'll all get to know on Sundays in the future? Offensive Tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders will play in the league, as will Guard Rodney Hudson. Wide receivers Richard Goodman and Jarmon Fortson will get paid. On defense you'll see DT Jacobbi McDaniel, LB's Dekoda Watson and Nigel Bradham, and definitely CB Patrick Robinson (considered by many to be the top CB in the country).

Finally, here's a few our fans can answer:

- This may be the best-attended road game by USF fans that we've ever had - right up there with the time we took over FAU's little sandbox of a stadium. Any suggestions on what to do (and what not to do) in the parking lots and at the stadium? Maybe some things we wouldn't think of. We all know bad things would happen if someone tried to stop Renegade and Chief Osceola. Does it bother you that Gene Deckerhoff went to UF?

What are your feelings on playing against USF for the first time? What 5 places should USF fans make sure to visit while in Tally?

Now, Tomahawk Nation's questions to USF

In your honest opinion how much of a drop off or rise in play do you see with the redshirt freshman quarterback leading the offense? How much of the offense can he handle? How will this impact playcalling?

Jamie: I hate to say "I don't know" but... I don't know. We can go off of what we've seen in the two games Daniels has played in extensively so far (which were both against I-AA schools) and what everyone within the program says about him. He's faster than Grothe, he has a stronger arm, and everyone says he has the same competitive streak in him - which makes sense, since he played basketball last year in the toughest conference in America. But until you really throw him in the water and see if he can swim or not, you never know for sure. Even if the Bulls lose the game, it will be very encouraging if Daniels still plays well. Grothe won his first-ever road game at UCF, and nearly won his second one at Kansas (the year before they really took off - I was at that game and can still see the winning touchdown pass skimming off Ean Randolph's hands... what a bummer). It only took that long for us to figure out that he had something.

Mike Canales (our offensive coordinator) says they're not going to limit Daniels. I think we're interested in knowing whether Canales has limited himself in the first three games because he didn't want to give FSU a roadmap to stopping the offense. It seems like the offense has been opening up a bit since the Wofford game, but we have no idea how much of the playbook is available at this point.

Jim: While the style hasn't changed much, the offense was new this year even for Grothe. Daniels probably had more reps in the spring and camp cycles to protect Grothe from injuries. (Grothe hurt his hip pointer in Aug 08, so there was some concern). Coach Canales also said that preparation this week would not change.

Daniels is a taller, faster, stronger version of Matt Grothe. He doesn't have Matt's experience, and has not shown the same personality (back up QB's don't usually show the "moxie" when they are in the game for mop-up duty).

The real issue will be how quickly Daniels can adjust to the FSU speed. Sure, he sees a fast defense every day in practice - but practice speed isn't game speed. If he can adjust quickly, we'll be fine.

Data: Really, I don't know. In terms of pure physical talent, Daniels is better. He seems to be very calm and confident in the pocket. Overall, I'd say our big play ability is a little higher. Daniels can just make throws that Grothe wouldn't be able to. We'll have to see whether Daniels is nervous, or just makes mistakes seeing the field against the speed of FSU. I have a feeling the overall dropoff won't be much, but we won't know until Saturday.

Dan: I can't say I truly expect an actual rise yet, because we just don't know, and it's a hell of a game to have your first start in, but I don't expect alot of dropoff. I think BJ Daniels' skillset will help make up for a little bit of the dropoff, if there is any. And the team will be rallying around him and playing their hearts out for Grothe. I think he can handle the whole offense. Playcalling won't be much different, but I still think there are things that both QBs practiced that will be new to everyone, including us.

If you had to point to a place on the timeline of FSU football, where would USF be today?

Jamie: We're probably you guys around 1982. We've come a long way and there are a few skins on the wall, but people are wondering if we're legit or not. You guys won at Ohio State two straight years - we beat West Virginia two straight years when they were in the top 10. We're hoping that we're in a bit of a leveling off period while we wait for the next step up to true elite status.

Jim: It's a bit different. USF is in a conference, and a BCS conference at that. FSU for most of the rise to power was independent - which means USF can't follow the same path. However, I would put USF at about the 1980 FSU timeline.

Data: You'd have to help me out with the years. I would say we are somewhere around the Casey Weldon early years, or maybe a year or two before Weldon took over. The team is at the point where ending the season in the Top 25 should be a reasonable goal.

Does USF have the confidence/talent to play tight man coverage against our secondary, thus taking away the bubble screen? Also, do you think Daniels will be able to stretch our D by consistently hitting the intermediate routes? What kind of designed runs do you anticipate against FSU?

Jim: Joe Tresey is a good DC, and will likely mix up the coverage -- switching from man to zone. USF played mostly a soft zone (like a cover-2 or cover-3) during the first three games. However, the CBs have the speed to keep up with the WR's... and safety Nate Allen is a ball hawk (and potential 2nd-rounder).

Daniels has an accurate and strong arm. If Bogan, Love, Mitchell, and the rest of our WRs can get behind the FSU secondary - then Daniels can hit them.

USF runs a modified spread-option, where the QB decides at the last minute to hand off or run based on the crashing DE (this is the zone-read). USF also has specific plays with a QB run (not just QB draws). Those are probably the most unique running plays. USF has more traditional counter, off-tackle, sweep and up-the-gut runs. I would also expect an end-around or even a reverse.

Data: I'm confused by the first question. If the question is - Do we have the confidence to man against your WRs? Probably. But we have new Defensive D-Coordinators. In past years we definitely would have left our DBacks on an island and put lots of pressure on the backs. We have one NFL quality CB in Jerome Murphy, and some young guys on the other side that seem to be very good but haven't proven it on the field (Q Washington, George Baker, Kayvon Webster). Currently, when we go with a nickel package we'll see two of the three young corners instead of another safety.

Daniels has shown the ability to hit guys in stride 40 yards down the field. From a passing perspective, I expect you'll see us run the same kind of deep passing game that Miami had success with. But we'll also run a lot more 4 and 5 wides, and try spread the field to hit the 10-15 yard pass. We'll run at least 8 different receivers through the game, probably more like 10. The running game hasn't settled on a running back. I think you'll see steady but solid Mo Plancher run your basic off tackle stuff, powerful and speedy Mike Ford pound it up the middle, and lightning quick Lindsey Lamar try to run outside and catch some screen passes. Most of our running is out of the spread, but in short yardage we'll bring in two or three TEs.

Dan: Unsure about the man coverage. Our receivers are pretty big and athletic, and they play as well as they can. Daniels has smarts and I noticed he knows how to take some heat off the ball to fit the ball in the short routes, and still knows how to bomb it with surprisingly great accuracy. Not sure what Canales has up his sleeve for runs, but we are getting more and more stable at RB so I'm sure there will be some interesting things to see.

This weekend, how will your fanbase adapt to a stadium that does not serve alcohol?

Jamie Have you ever been to a game in Tampa and seen the beer prices? Our stadium basically doesn't serve alcohol either. The hardest part for the drinkers is going to be the noon kickoff. The default kickoff time at our home games is 7:00pm, and there's always a lot of kvetching when a game is moved to 12:00pm for the Big East Game of the Week slot because there's just not enough time to get a good buzz on in the parking lot.

Jim: The same way yours does. Drinking in the lot and sneaking some in.

Dan: I could be mistaken but I don't think UCF's stadium served alcohol either (even though it's a wet campus). It'll be just fine, just means people will remember more of the game, and your city will make alot more money off booze sales on Fri night and Sat morning.

Is it possible for the Bulls to have a moral victory? If USF is able to compete with Florida State and keep the game close, can it be considered a step forward for the program?

Jamie: No. Moral victories are for UCF.

Jim: Moral victories are for UCiF. (Named because "if this" or "if that" they would win...) If USF keeps it close and loses, that is a loss. Many fans not only think we can win, but almost expect it. Much like FSU fans thought about Miami on opening weekend.

Data: I don't think there would be terrible disappointment with a close loss. But only a victory would be considered a step forward. This team has already won bigger road games in the recent past against (at Auburn, at West Virginia when they were considered a NC contender). From a recruiting perspective a win over FSU would be huge. From a "We have arrived" perspective, I don't think a win at FSU would top Auburn unless FSU was undeafeated late in the year.

Dan: A moral victory would be winning on a FG or by less than 6 points. A real 'we-have-arrived' victory will be a double digit 'in-your-face' beating.

From a fan's perspective and the program's perspective, which game is more important to the Bulls, FSU or UM?

Jamie: For the fans, I think we're happy if we win one out of the two games this year, just to have that first "Big 3" win under our belt. But for the program, I think this one is more important. This goes back to the question I suggested about how many Bulls fans think FSU is most vulnerable to falling out of the "Big 3" in Florida. Miami is always going to get talent from their own back yard. Florida has national recruiting cachet and can get almost anyone they want. And USF is doing an increasingly good job retaining the talent in Tampa Bay. If the state can't support four BCS conference teams at a high level (note: we don't know this for sure yet) and one school has to take another's place, then FSU seems like the one USF would replace if they could get there. Part of that replacement process includes beating them on the field.

Jim: FSU is more important because we have four more games against UM and only one against FSU. And this is our only scheduled visit to Doak.

Data: About the same. If we go 1-1, I think we'll be happy. The two teams seem very close in talent, and we get UM at home. So I guess that would make the Miami game slightly more important. But a win over FSU would mean the Miami game is less important. If that makes sense.

Dan: They're about 50/50. UM is more important to win, because they beat us last time, and we should win at home. It's too early to know if FSU will be great this year with the rest of their schedule, and we'll know when we face UM how good they truly are. Winning at either will surely help in some way or another.

Vegas is giving USF about a 13% chance of winning this contest. What percent chance do you give yourselves winning this game?

Jamie: Before Grothe got hurt I would have said around 40%. Now I'm down around 25%. But that's about the chance I gave USF to win at Auburn, and we know how that worked out.

Jim: 50-50. Honestly.

Data: My head is telling me about 25% after the Grothe injury. But Daniels is sending out really good vibes. I know BYU is supposed to be good, but they turned the ball over a lot and our speed on defense is a lot better than theirs. My gut is telling me this team is better than the last two years, and has a greater sense of purpose. I'll go 60%.

Dan: With Grothe, I think we had a 50/50 shot at winning. With BJ, I think it may be 40-45%. Know this. This team is ready. We still have a great defense and we have a solid O-line, and our QB isn't a scrub. And we seem to have a legit kicker (you guys know ALL about that wide-right stuff ) Expect everything from us, it's only Wednesday and I bet the team is already on fire tired of hearing all the weak arguments and cheap shots being taken at them because they lost one guy.

A big thanks to TheBullsPen.com

Florida State's Offensive Line Powers Upset of #7 BYU Cougars

FSUncensored — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 05:09:18 -0000

Florida State's Offensive Line Coach Rick Trickett is considered one of the finest coaches in the country at any position.

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Going into their game against the 7th ranked BYU cougars, Florida State had many doubters. Most national pundits predicted that FSU would lose by a minimum of two touchdowns. Outside of the Nole's questionable defense, they also faced doubts about their offensive line. Thought of as the best in the ACC and one of the best in the country headed into the season, the Noles OLine didn't dominate Miami in the run game, though they did pass protect very well, allowing only 2 sacks on 43 pass plays. Against Jacksonville State, they struggled, like the rest of the Nole team did off of only two days of practice and the Miami loss still lingering. Writers wondered where the Seminole's vaunted run game had gone? Coming into BYU, few thought the Noles would remedy their run game problems, particularly because the Cougar defense had been so dominant, or so they seemed.

Last week I broke down the BYU-Oklahoma film and thought that it wasn't that BYU's defense was so amazing, but that Oklahoma beat themselves with repeated dumb penalties and a silly gameplan. Check the link, I called it. People often underestimate the importance of offensive line play and thus fail to account for it when evaluating a team. But offensive line play can make an average running back look like a world-beater, or make a talented quarterback look below average. OU's offensive line was the country's finest last year, but this year, replacing 4 starters, and having to move a tight end to center after an injury, they cost Oklahoma the game against BYU with 10 offensive penalties including 5+ false starts. I profiled it in that article, but if FSU was to beat BYU, they would have to avoid 3rd and long situations and silly offensive penalties, because BYU plays great team defense but they struggle when having to defend both the run and the pass because of their lack of athleticism.

But FSU Offensive Coordinator/ Head Coach in Waiting Jimbo Fisher said that he was was not worried about the run game or the offensive line. Florida State's legendary Offensive Line Coach Rick Trickett guaranteed that his unit would get things worked out. He unilaterally denied all interview requests for his linemen, stating that they were going to "stop talking and start blocking."

Florida State's offensive line could not have performed better. Their play was the antithesis of Oklahoma's offensive line. Not only did the Nole's offensive front not lose the game for Florida State, they absolutely won it. While OU committed 10 offensive penalties, the Noles had only 1 enforced against their starters (FSU pulled their first team offense once the score got to 54-21. At the time they were pulled, FSU starters were gaining 7.2 yards per snap of the football). BYU was shellshocked. "We didn't think they would be so physical," said BYU Coach Bronco Mendenhall. It started from the opening play. FSU would not punt until the end of the 3rd quarter, with the game already well in hand. The Noles marched for touchdown drives of 60, 70, 80, 82, and 86 yards the first three quarters. FSU dominated BYU. Everyone wants to assume that FSU's speed made the difference, but the Nole's offensive line was much, much stronger than BYU's defensive front. BYU's linebackers could not get off the blocks of FSU's offensive line. Florida State's likely All-America guard Rodney Hudson took home ACC offensive lineman of the week honors.

After the jump, see just how dominant they were.

The Noles run game was excellent. The offensive line did not allow a tackle for loss (though one did come on a reverse where an FSU wideout made an ill-advised juke by the sideline.) It started on 1st down. The Noles had 21 1st down runs. The results were as follows: 12, 12, 9, 9 (touchdown), 6, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 (touchdown). Florida State did not have any runs stopped for no gain or loss. Zero. They also dominated short yardage. On 2nd and 3 or less, FSU ran every time and picked up the first down, every time: Down-Distance (Gained) 2-2 (6), 2-1 (4), 2-2 (4), 2-1 (4). Third down was the same story, 3-1 (6), 3-1 (4), 3-1 (2). The announcers were stunned, calling the offensive line "velcro" because BYU's defensive linemen and linebackers could not shed the blocks. Want another crazy nugget? BYU's leading tacklers were their cornerbacks, who had 10 and 11 respectively. BYU's cornerbacks had more tackles than the defensive line and linebackers combined, mostly because Florida State's line denied them any penetration and consistently put them on their backs.

"We showed great efficiency on a down to down basis. Constantly stayed ahead of the sticks. Were always in manageable downs, we executed with great consistency, we were very physical up front, were very multiple, distributed the ball a bunch (8 different Seminoles carried the ball), we won 1st down consistently," said Florida State Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach in Waiting Jimbo Fisher, who coached the Noles to the ACC's top offense last season and won the ACC Offensive Coordinator of the Year award. Florida State held the ball for 40 minutes, compared to just 20 for BYU.

It wasn't just the run game. Christian Ponder was an incredible 21-26 passing for 195 yards, 2 TD's and no interceptions. His quarterback rating was a preposterous 170. But the credit also needs to go to the offensive line. Ponder was not sacked. He was hurried only twice, and was hit only three times. Florida State had an incredible 30 1st downs. They started out a perfect 10-for-10 on third downs, and the starters were 11-of-13 overall. Ponder had time to go through all of his reads. When BYU blitzed, FSU picked it up and FSU isolated the single coverage. When BYU played a conservative zone, Ponder sat back and read all five players in the pattern.

Perhaps the best way to judge their performance is to ask BYU's coach, Bronco Mendenhall:

"I thought they played hard, I thought they played physical and I thought they sustained it from beginning to end. I was very impressed with their preparation. A frustrating loss for our football program. Our inability to make critical stops on third down, due to the way Florida State was playing. They won the physical matchup in terms of being able to run the football, and run it effectively from the beginning of the night through the end of the night. I thought those factors were the biggest difference in the game -- prohibiting our offfense from having enough snaps and being on the field frequently enough to give us the balance we were hopeful for. Florida State played more physical tonight. I think they played with more hunger, meaning more desire. Many plays were stopped at the point of attack, but I think hey continued to play longer and harder than we played.

I was impressed through the week with their line's athleticism. I was impressed today that they were more physical than I anticipated. They were very athletic in the first two football games in terms of getting downfield on their screen passes, and cutting. Their size is more like defensive linemen, as you watch them. So they are very athletic. I didn't think they would be able to move us off the line of scrimmage. And not only did they do that, they did it consistently, beginning to end. And that was the biggest surprise to me of the game. And I have to give them credit."

[On the difference between FSU and BYU's front, and why Bronco expected to have success against FSU]: "Because I believe Oklahoma's offensive line was a very good front, and I think that we were capable of more. Yet, they, from beginning to end, ran the football and it wasn't a lot of elaborate schemes. It was basically zone blocking which was their men against our men."

[On Halftime Adjustments]: "Really, when it comes down to the adjustments made -- and this will sound maybe less than what you hoped to hear, it really comes down to gap integrity, and each player doing exactly what they are supposed to do. And when you run zone schemes, someone is losing at the point of attack, or someone is getting cut off, and losing their gap. And that is where seams develop."

"Basically, man for man, Florida State's run offense was better than our run defense this evening. And when you start taking chances and bringing pressure -- and we brought more today than probably in any of the previous two games, maybe all of last year, in trying to help them make plays, but even then Florida State handled that well. Everything we had planned and prepared, we used. And none of which was very effective. Our zone pressures weren't working in terms of getting to the quarterback. We had some man pressures that also weren't effective. And base zone and even dropping eight [wasn't effective]. So execution ultimately was their execution was better than ours."

While All-America Candidate Left Guard Rodney Hudson took home ACC Offensive Lineman of the week honors, other starters played at an extremely high level as well. Left Tackle Andrew Datko is following up his Freshman All-America campaign with a great outing, dominating the Mountain West Conferences's All-Time Sack Leader Jan Jorgensen. Center Ryan McMahon improved his performance immensely from the Miami game and importantly, kept the line abreast of the various blitzes BYU was running from their uncommon 3-4 alignment. Right Guard David Spurlock and Right Tackle Zebrie Sanders both played extremely physical and did a great job maintaining their blocks, allowing the runner to find the hole.

It seems obvious now that the running game wasn't dominant against Miami because Miami schemed to take away the run and allow the pass, if Ponder could throw it, because FSU couldn't throw well last season, and because Miami has an excellent defensive tackle tandem which played well against Rodney Hudson while Hudson had an injured foot. But Ponder showed FSU can and will throw the ball, and now that teams have to respect both the run and the pass, they are in a bind. Florida State is averaging more than 450 yards against ranked teams. No school is averaging more (minimum 2 games). Starting last season when they were the youngest offensive line in the country with three true freshmen and two sophomores as part of FSU's Undercover Youth Movement, this unit has steadily improved. If a team is going to stop FSU's run game, they better have an elite level front-7, of which are only found at Clemson, UNC, and UF, on FSU's schedule, or they are just going to have to gamble and risk being shredded by the pass. With no Seniors and everyone expected to return in 2010, this offensive line has a serious chance to be the clear cut top unit in the country next season. The offense could follow a similar path. While It's not yet the best in the country, it should be the ACC's best again this season and has a real chance to be the best in the country in 2010.

Florida State Seminoles at BYU Cougars Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:24:03 -0000

And so the Seminoles take to the road for the first time this season. Can Florida State take down Brigham Young in Lavell Edwards Stadium? Let's break it down.

Viewing Information: 7PM Eastern. Available on the Versus network. Comcast customers have it, Dish Network customers have it, Direct TV customers do not.
Weather Info: our resident meteorology buffs break it down. The weather looks great!

UPDATE: well we did it. We wrote the article that broke SBNation. It was so epic that the system couldn't handle it and like a shooting star, we couldn't get it back. So there will be no super in-depth breakdown of the Cougar defense and the FSU offense. I don't have time to re-write it. But I will give you a recap

Spread BYU out and run. They aren't big or fast, FSU should be able to run the ball on this defense if they spread them out and make BYU account for the bubble screens via alignment. Oklahoma ran on BYU and they were dumb for not making BYU play honest. FSU needs to keep them honest via the bubble. Stay committed to the run game. I really believe that BYU's defense is not as good as they have shown. Remember the article. BYU can't handle mobile QB's.
Simplify Coverages via the run game and the constraint plays (bubbles, draws, etc). BYU in predictable coverages is much easier to beat than a BYU that can run anything it wants. Make BYU blitz from a greater distance by spreading them. BYU can't handle mobile QB's. if BYU aligns like that, FSU will simply throw Bubble Screens like they did all last year for 10+ yards over and over and over again.
Stay patient. I don't think BYU will blitz much early. Take what they give you while dictating alignment via formation. Force BYU to take risks- both play and formation. When they make their adjustments to FSU's run game, beat them with the play-action pass.
Stay in good down and distance. BYU is not a team that handles play-action well and they can definitely be beat by play-action off of a good running game. Force them to make difficult alginment decisions.
Attack vulnerable players in coverage. Bouman and Hooks (2 middle linebackers) are bad in coverage, and without their staring free safety, BYU will be playing a 215lb and a 206lb safety, both of whom are slow.
Long snap counts. If BYU is going to shift pre-snap, make them show it and then sit in it.
Honestly, the 2nd part of this preview was epic. It had videos and pictures and diagrams and I am really frustrated. Enjoy the look at their offense.
Prediction: FSU rushed for 220 yards and throws for 240 yards, while controlling down and distance reasonably well. Ponder runs the ball a lot more than he has shown this year. FSU scores 31 points to BYU's 28. Player of the game: Offense- Christian Ponder. Defense: Kevin McNiel. See inside for the other author's predictions!

Florida State's Defense against BYU's Offense

They run a power spread attack. What does that mean? Basically, offensive coordinator Robert Anae uses the personnel he has to make his offense, and he just so happens to have a very big running back, a likely NFL tight end, and a talented fullback. The 'Noles will face a shotgun offense featuring multiple non-wide receiver skill position players. Their linemen look to have 28 inch splits (rough guess). For reference, FSU's offensive linemen will use 18" splits this year and used 12 inch splits last year.

Notice how big the splits are. This makes it exceptionally hard for opposing defensive ends to get to the quarterback. In an interesting twist, FSU's defensive ends are horrible so far this season, so that may not matter as much.

Here is an article: BYU Offense and Protection Scheme. It is from Texas Tech, and their current offensive coordinator Anae authored a decent portion. Of particular note is the way they handle twists and stunts by the defensive line.

Here's another on their offense.

Because this year is only two games old, it's important to look at last year's performance and then adjust for the changes in personnel and playcalling. Last year, the Cougar's offense looked like this...

Category	Performance	Nat'l Rank
Total Offense	6.3 Yards/Play	18th
Scoring Offense	34.2 PPG	20th
Passing Offense	310 Passing Yards/ Game	6th
Rushing Offense	134 Rushing Yards/ Game	72nd

That summary makes BYU's offense look really good. But were they really that good, considering their competition level? Actually, they were pretty good. The advanced performance measures indicate that BYU was quite good on offense. Here's a look:

Category	Nat'l Rank
Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	19th
S&P+ (opponent adjusted measure of success and explosiveness)	6th
Rushing S&P+	23rd
Passing S&P+	8th

So the traditional measures say 18th or 20, and the smart measures say 19th or 6th. That's a very good offense. Not Texas Tech, UF, USC, or Penn State good, but comparable to the likes of Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Oregon. I use teams from different conferences to show the importance of adjusting for the quality of defenses faced.

So far in 2009, BYU's offense has had mixed returns. In their landmark win over Oklahoma, BYU averaged 5.0 yards per play against a very good Sooner defense. They managed to score 14 points, and had 4 turnovers. Clearly, that's not impressive, though they did enough to win the game. Against Tulane, they ran an astounding 79 plays, averaging 6.7 yards per snap, which is much better. I have my doubts about their offensive performance against Tulane, however, as they were only up 20-3 at half, and really poured it on when an undermanned Tulane team quit in the 4th quarter. I guess when you're in the MWC, you have to run the score up to get respect. Let's break down their personnel, then get into the game plan. But first...

A haiku:

Hulking Precision

Lacking in Explosion

Touchdown Anyway

Quarterback

Let's start at the QB position, where BYU has a star in Max Hall. He's 6'1" and 200lbs. He's the kind of kid who is a very good college quarterback, but who doesn't have much of a pro future due to his sort of average physical tools. He is however, very accurate and reads defenses very well. He was 1st team All-Mountain West in 2007 and 2nd team last season. Here is what he did in 2008:

Situation (2008)	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
All Games	13	477	330	69%	3957	8.3	35	14	157	37	304
vs. Winning	5	201	129	64%	1550	7.7	8	10	132	40	310
vs. Non-Winning	8	276	201	73%	2407	8.7	27	4	175	35	301
in Wins	10	348	257	74%	3150	9.1	34	6	179	35	315
in Losses (TCU, Utah, Arizona)	3	129	73	57%	807	6.3	1	8	99	43	269
vs. Ranked (AP)	2	83	43	52%	479	5.8	0	7	83	42	240
vs. Unranked (AP)	11	394	287	73%	3478	8.8	35	7	173	36	316

Those are some very impressive overall numbers. The TD-INT Ratio against ranked teams, and in BYU's 3 losses, however, is a huge red flag. Such a red flag that I decided to look closer.

Opponent	Defensive Efficiency (Lower Number is Better)	Nat'l Defensive Rank	BYU Points Scored
TCU	-0.437	8	7
Utah	-0.33	14	24
Florida State	-0.32	20	???
New Mexico	-0.163	38	21
Arizona	-0.126	42	21
UCLA	-0.091	52	59
Air Force	-0.032	59	38
Wyoming	0.071	70	44
Colorado State	0.205	87	45
Utah State	0.222	89	34
Washington	0.379	111	28
San Diego State	0.451	114	41
UNLV	0.516	115	42

TCU and Utah were the only two teams who had a defense similar to FSU's quality, and BYU managed 7 and 24 points, respectively. And BYU was a combined -9 in turnover margin in those two games. I think there is a speed issue. BYU simply cannot replicate FSU's speed in practice using their practice squad. Hall was a combined 43-83 in those two games. He did not throw a TD in either game.

Against Oklahoma this year, Hall went 26-38, for 328 yards, with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. He was also sacked 4 times. BYU managed 14 points. That's still a fine performance, despite the interceptions against a very good Oklahoma Defense.

It would seem that we have a case of beating up on bad opponents- and BYU certainly had a lot of those in their cupcake schedules over the years.

Hall is not a tall quarterback and as a result, he has to rely on throwing lanes (the spaces between his linemen) to see and throw. It's very important to get pressure on Hall because he is is not a runner. He is smart and accurate, however, and if the 'Noles don't get pressure in his face, he will complete some passes and hurt them.

Running Backs

BYU is more than set at the running back position. While BYU doesn't run often, they do run very efficiently, and their passing offense, like most passing attacks, is made much better if they can get the run game going.

At running back, Harvey Unga has had back to back 1,000 yard seasons, and last year went for 1132 on 240 carries (4.7). He also caught 42 balls for 309 yards (7.4). At 6'0" 240, he is a load and BYU will continue to pound him on the ground. He's a good runner but he definitely had a sophomore slump in terms of explosiveness. So far this year he has battled a hamstring injury, but is expected to play against Florida State. How much he can go is a question. His backup is JJ Di Luigi. He's a smaller, quicker kid and looked good against Tulane. Also be on the look out for Brian Kariya.

Fullback Manase Tonga. Tonga is 6'1" 240 and a load. He will pound the ball occasionally, but also blocks very well and catches the ball out of the backfield.

All of BYU's backs do the little things very well. They don't miss blitz pickup assignments. They catch the ball out of the backfield. They don't dance and they do get upfield quickly to gain yards.

Against Oklahoma, BYU rushed 29 times for 47 yards (running plays only, no sacks). That's an average of 1.6 yards per running play. They crushed Tulane for over 200 yards. Take from that what you will.

Receivers/ Tight Ends

BYU is still breaking in two new starting receivers, having to replace Austin Collie, who was far and away the Cougar's best weapon. He left early for the NFL and was BYU's go-to guy. Collie had an NCAA Best 106 catches for 1453 yards and 15 TD's! The Cougars had the 2nd best 3rd down conversion rate in the nation last year, and Collie caught a bunch of those. Also departed Michael Reed, who went 49-589-2. He was the Cougar's #2 receiver (though not their 2nd best receiving option, as you'll see below. So BYU had to replace an NFL wideout (which is pretty rare for BYU), and their #2 wideout.

Their number one weapon is Tight End Dennis Pitta, 6'5" 250lbs. The Senior is a legit NFL Tight End Prospect, consistently listed in the top-5 draft eligible tight end prospects, nationally. Pitta has both the athleticism and the production to back up his status. Last year he had 83 catches for 1083 yards and 6 touchdowns. This year he has improved his game, and caught 7 balls for 90 yards against Oklahoma. He is Hall's prime target, and all 'Nole fans know how much trouble the 'Noles have had covering the tight end (though they are often burned by afterthought tight ends, not necessarily high profile tight ends). Some great tight ends have killed the 'Noles, however, like UVA's Heath Miller and many from Miami. Pitta belongs in that group.

Here's a hilarious fake press-release on FSU's struggles with the tight end position, written by Ricobert11:

TIGHT ENDS MAKING DIFFERENCE IN PRACTICES
August xx, 200x

Coach (fill-in-the-blank) reminded reporters today of his intention to see the TE more involved in FSU offensive playcalling. "[So-and-so player] really impresses us with his athleticism. Believe you me, we will find a way to get that boy the ball."

FSU has looked to get more offensive output from their TEs in light of recent years lack of productivity. "I really just want to help the team out," said returning starter Tight Enderson. "We're really gonna surprise some folks this year. Teams will have to account for all skill players, not just our wide outs."

While FSU has had trouble finding the open TE, other teams have not. Miami TE Dozen Matta-Who scorched FSU's secondary for 9 catches and 173 yards in last year's rivalry game. The year prior, TE Enni-wun In-pads made a show case out of the game with a 15 catch / 227 yard / 4 TD performance, soliciting the first-ever mid-college season NFL free agent contract from the Oakland Raiders. In-pads would later, famously, go on to be the first player to ever sue against his own NFL Draft eligibility status, and win.

FSU has no excuse not to cover this tight end. He is BYU's biggest weapon by a long shot and should be identified on every play. FSU should really treat him as a wide receiver. He's been 1st Team All-Mountain West for 2 years running and should be 1st team All-America. An excellent route runner with glue hands, he will be a challenge for this Nole defense. Luckily, the 'Noles have Dekoda Watson, who has the ability to limit Pitta. If they use Watson to rush the passer, however, they will need to bracket Pitta with other players.

The Cougars also have tight end Andrew George (6'5" 250'), who went for 23 catches, 219 yds, and 6 TDs. In any case, George would start for most teams and is an excellent 2nd tight end option. Against the Sooners, he snagged 3 balls for 26 yards, including a TD off play-action. Watch for him on the goal line.

Trying to fill the void left by Collie is be McKay Jacobson. The 5' 11" 192lb Soph has good speed. As a freshman in 2006 (remember, these kids go on missions. He is 21 as a sophomore), he caught 28 balls for 547 yards and 3 TD's. Against Oklahoma he grabbed 4 balls for 69 yards. BYU has thrown him several middlle and jailbreak screens as well, so be on the lookout for that. I believe that FSU CB Patrick Robinson should be able to handle him one-on-one with very little trouble.

At the "X" receiver position, BYU has O'Neill Chambers. He's 6'2" 208, and one of their bigger targets at wideout. He has excellent hands. Some say he has big play potential, but I haven't seen that yet. The 3rd wide receiver spot right now, the "H", is between Junior Luke Ashworth, Matt Marshall, and Stephen Covey. There's a possibility that Stephen Kozlowski gets in there as well. Really though, BYU prefers to throw to their bevy of backs, tight ends, or the top two wideouts.

All of BYU's wideouts run excellent routes. Their offense features a lot of quick passing and it is built on precision. A lot of their routes are timing routes. BYU's wideouts are where they are supposed to be. They are on the same page with Max Hall. Hall throws the ball before they are open. Oh, and all of them can catch. It's absolutely paramount that FSU's corners play solid man coverage against the Cougars. BYU will eat up zone because they have a very good quarterback and mature (24 yearolds) receivers who understand where the holes are in a zone. Also, FSU plays horrible zone defense. They might not be the fastest, but they are good. I do think this group is missing a big-play threat in Collie.

Offensive Line

The Cougars lost 4 multi-year starters. Three of them were All-Conference as Seniors! The 4th made 28 career starts! In all, BYU loses 153 starts, an incredible number (probably the biggest loss in the nation).

Losing 4 starters means that one guy returns, and he happens to be the Coug's best lineman. Matt Reynolds is to BYU what Andrew Datko was to FSU- a Freshman All-America. BYU threw the ball 500 times last year and Reynolds (who is 21, with his mission and a redshirt), allowed only 1 sack. He's 6'6", 320, and a serious NFL prospect.

Right Tackle will be manned by Junior Nick Alletto, who is considered a good pass protector at 6'6" 318. The Junior busted up his knee this off-season, but looks to have held onto the job. He's also at least 23 years old. They think he is very good in pass protection.

At left guard is was to Jason Speredon, a Junior. He's a junior who has played in 21 games but apparently started none. Suffered from an ACL issue as a redshirt freshman. He's 6'5" 305 and my notes (I keep a little notebook on our opponents) say that coach Bronco Mendenhall had some good things to say about him at some point. He obviously lacks experience against decent competition, however, since he's only played in garbage time. But he is now done for the season with an injury, and was replaced by Braden Hansen, a 6'6" 282lb well touted redshirt freshman who is (surprise) coming off a mission. I don't have much info on him other than to say that he is not as good as the Freshman All-American Reynolds. He was average at best against Oklahoma, but guess what? He is now down with an injury! So he will be replaced by 6'3" 307lb sophomore Marco Thorson, who has never played in a game and is a clear step down from the guy they thought would be starting just 3 weeks ago.

At Right Guard, the Cougars have a promising one in Sophomore Terence Brown. 6'3" 351, he is athletic for his size, though obviously not athletic on an objective scale. BYU says he is smart and should be a three year starter. Like the others, he has little experience (1 start as a freshman, redshirted last year).

At Center, BYU will go with R.J. Willing, a 6'5" 305lb Senior. He started 9 games in 2004 (yes, 2004, so that makes him at least 23 years old, possibly more). He played in 11 games in 2007 and 5 games last year (mostly garbage time, no starts).

This is a decent pass blocking offensive line, I think, but Oklahoma sacked Hall 4 times on 42 passing plays. That's a sack every 10 or so dropbacks, which is terrible. Watching the 4 sacks, all occurred when Hall pulled the ball and tried to move out of the pocket, but encountered pressure from the middle of the line. He did do a nice job protecting the ball, and knew he would go down. 2 were on blitzes and 2 were not. They didn't do all that well with twists and stunts. Check out this picture:

Oklahoma had 8 men within 4yards of the line of scrimmage. This is similar to FSU's prowler. It was tough for BYU to figure out who would rush and who would drop. This play ended in a sack, even though BYU had 7 pass protectors and OU only rushed 5 men.

I have to wonder how BYU will fare with their 3rd left guard in as many weeks. These guys are huge, and do a good job run blocking within the context of BYU's scheme. They also run a lot of screens, but I think they tip them way too early and the new left guard won't help. If FSU was better coached on defense, I would have zero worries about the screen game. They aren't, however, and I'm sure Chuck Amato's crew will mess up. Still, these guys are not great downfield blockers because they are really fat and have no agility.

Attacking BYU

Everyone knows that FSU's Defensive Coordinator has been clueless against teams who spread the formation and then run with their quarterback. If you didn't know that, welcome to our site! Here is a convenient table. You may now throw up in your mouth:

2008		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent	PPG	Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Against Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Against Teams utilizing the Mobile QB from a spread set	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

Here's the article with an explanation as to why this has happened.

In 2009, FSU allowed Miami's offense to put up 476 yards only 64 plays, over 7 yards per play. 25 first downs and 38 points. The star for the Hurricanes was quarterback Jacory Harris, who torched the 'Noles for a cartoonish 386 yards on 21-34 passing, more than 11 yards per passing play. He was absolutely insane on 1st down, as the Noles concentrated on Miami's run game. Quarterback Jacory Harris torched the FSU defense on first downs, going an incredible 14-18 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, good for an unheard of 247 quarterback rating (yes, a few points from perfect). Florida State allowed almost 16 yards per passing play and over 20 yards per completion! Miami passed far more often than they ran on 1st down and yet FSU made very few adjustments. And it wasn't just one or two long completions. Harris connected on passes of 40, 39, 31, 29, 27, 24, 20, 19, 18, 11, 8, 7, 6, and 5 yards. It continued throughout the game as FSU made no adjustments. Last night, we saw that Miami's offense is quite good as they torched Georgia Tech. Miami's wideouts are awesome. BYU's are not the same type of player, but they are very good in their own way.

But BYU presents an interesting case. They spread their formation, true, but they use Pro-Style personnel! Their best skill players are two full-back sized running backs, and two tight ends. I expect to see some three-wide sets against FSU, but not much in the way of four wide receivers. BYU will also run from the I-Formation, sometimes with Two tight ends. They are multiple to the max.

But this isn't the type of spread FSU usually struggles with. Hall is not a runner. FSU won't hesitate to pursue the runner when there appears to be a handoff, because there is little fear Hall will take off. I am inclined to classify BYU's offense as more of a pro-style, as despite their spread alignment, they do not run their quarterback, and use big personnel. In fact, as I discussed above, it makes sense to call BYU "Big Texas Tech", since that is where their offense came from. BYU makes their living on precise throws and timing routes. The most important key to this game, however, will be to win the battle in the middle. FSU must make BYU one-dimensional. Teams who turn BYU into a throw-only team typically dominate them, as it kills their play-action game. And for the most part, BYU doesn't want to run the ball. They are sometimes quick to abandon the run game, and have done so to their detriment several times in big games in recent years, including against Oklahoma. Getting pressure on Hall, specifically up the middle in his face, forcing him to throw on the move, is also important- but it needs to be done without blitzing a bunch. FSU's defense is made to play the pass. It dominates the pass. If FSU can have any success stopping BYU's run, the 'Nole's defense should be okay against the Cougar's passing attack. That's not to say it will shut it down, but that's not the goal.

Despite their lack of success against the pass against Miami, this Noles defense is still built to play the pass and not the run. I'm not crazy, hear me out on this. Miami found most of its passing success when FSU was focused on stopping the run- 1st down. Look at this breakdown against Oklahoma:

1st down Passing: 14-18, 285 yards, 2TD, 0 Int, No sacks. PERFECT QB RATING
2nd Down and 6 or less Passing: 2-4, 51 yards, 0TD, 0 Int, 0 Sacks, QB Rating 157 (very good)
2nd Down and 7 or more Passing: 1-3, 0 yards
3rd and 4 or less passing: 1-2, 5 yards (1 first down).
3rd and 5+ passing: 3-7, 46 yards, 0TD, 2 INT, 2 Sacks QB RATING: 40

As you can see, FSU plays very good pass defense when they know the pass is the overwhelmingly likely play from the offense. But make them worry about the run too much and the Nole's coverages become predictable and they get beat. If BYU is smart, they will try to run the ball and stay balanced against Florida State.

So how does FSU stop this and make BYU become one-dimensional? By winning on-on-one matchups. If they run from their I-formation, FSU will stack the box with athletes and simply dare BYU to beat them to the corner. That probably won't consistently happen. If BYU sees FSU sneaking that 8th man down into the box (and let's be honest, it's not a sneak, FSU just does it), they will need to throw the ball against one-on-one coverage. This is the first crucial one-on-one matchup FSU must win. FSU's cornerbacks must be able to handle BYU's receivers. Patrick Robinson is an elite cornerback and I have no doubt he can accomplish this. On the other side, the duty will fall to Ochuko Jenijie, or Dionte Allen. I'm higher on these guys than most, and in the Nole's cover-1 look, they will liekly help out those two by shading their deep safety. Of course, FSU must still take care of Dennis Pitta, their stud tight end and best player. That should be a joint effort and the idea isn't to shut him down as much as it is to limit him.

If BYU comes out in thier power-spread look, FSU will need to win another one-on-one matchup. With the sizable splits BYU takes, there will be opportunities for FSU's interior defensive line to make tackles for loss. That happens through using quickness to achieve penetration. FSU is going to need Stewart and McDaniel to be quicker off the ball than BYU's bigs. Tackles for loss are crucial when BYU runs from the gun because they use momentum runners. That is, BYU's guys take a bit to get going, but once they start rumbling, they are difficult to bring down. Much like Jerome Bettis, making these guys move laterally in the backfield will be key, as it will take away their ability to gain speed and momentum. Tackling low around the legs will be key. FSU should not shy away from bringing some early run pressure and shooting gaps. Sure, this leaves them more vulnerable deep, but if FSU has any shot to win this game, they must dare BYU to beat them deep and win that gamble.

This is an achievable goal. And it is one FSU is very aware of (nice article by Steve Ellis). BYU abandoned the run against TCU a year ago after TCU jumped out to an early lead. The Cougars ran only 20 rushing plays anf 50! passing plays. BYU averaged less than 2 yards per rush. Last year in the Bowl game the Cougars called only 30 rushing plays, compared to 48 passing plays. And this year against Oklahoma, BYU called 28 running plays and 43 passing plays. Want more proof that BYU doesn't really like to run? Against Oklahoma, when faced with 2nd and 7 or more, BYU ran just 3 times and threw 17 times. That is what we call a tendency, folks. Stop them on 1st down and they will give up on the run. Also, when they did run on 2nd and 7+, OU stuffed them. OU might have been too draw-conscious actually, as BYU beat them with play action (draw action) down the field a few times. He was really great at throwing underneath on 2nd and 7+ to bring up a manageable 3rd down. BYU is a throw team, and FSU just needs to encourage them in that direction a little bit to ensure they forget the run.

Coach Bowden indicated that redshirt Freshman Strong Safety/ Rover Nick Moody would likely start against BYU. That's a good thing. Moody is an intimidator over the middle and he could lay out a BYU wideout or two. While not great in coverage yet, he definitely plays the run well and I imagine FSU will use him on some blitzes as well. He is an intimidator.

Make BYU win the low percentage game.

At this point, it's probably a good idea to stop on over and read Chris Brown's article on coverages. FSU should be able to cover BYU's wideouts deep on a reasonably consistent basis without a whole lot of safety help. BYU runs a timing offense and throws into windows and spaces. The goal is to force the Cougars into beating FSU through the use of low percentage plays. A 5-yard slant against loose zone coverage is a high percentage play. BYU is so good at throwing that stuff that if FSU gives them that, they stand almost no chance of stopping the Cougars. But Max Hall really isn't much or a deep-ball thrower. Sure, every QB can loft the ball downfield, but I am talking about the more challenging throws. I'm talking about out-routes, skinny posts, etc. If BYU is going to throw all over Florida State, the 'Noles better be sure that they force the Cougars to do it via low percentage passes.

In order to disrupt the air-raid offense, you have to mess with their timing. I spoke with Chris Brown and he said that FSU needs to tackle on the short stuff, confuse and pressure hall without being reckless, and key and recognize formations and route combinations. It's a tall task, particularly because FSU's defensive coaches haven't been very good at communicating tendencies to their players. But it is doable, and it is doable because FSU can handle BYU's wideouts in man coverage.

As I previously stayed, BYU absolutely rips zone coverage. FSU plays below average zone coverage, at best. The Noles will play majority man coverage then, but with a twist. They'll play primarily man with zone defenders sprinkled in. Because FSU isn't really all that worried about BYU's receivers on the outside, they will look to flood the short and intermediate passing lanes. And they can do this by playing Cover-1 press, Cover-1 robber, and something I like to call cover-0 robber.

For the explanation of Cover-1 Robber, please go see Chris' article. The basic premise here is that if FSU is playing man coverage, BYU is going to try and hit some crossing routes. And they will hit them. But with the "robber" in the shallow middle, or wherever FSU aligns him, Max Hall might have to think twice about throwing that crossing route. Alabama did this beautifully last year to Georgia. The goal here is to get Hall to double clutch, double pump, or just hesitate a second. Is the crossing route really open? Put some doubt in Hall's mind. There's a lot of defenders to read inside of a small area. If Hall tries to re-set in the pocket because the route is either not open, or because Hall thinks it might not be open, that could be enough time for FSU's non-blitz pass rush to get to him. In addition, FSU can press out of this look, knowing that there is at least some safety help over the top. The press is a great way to disrupt timing routes and puts some doubt in a quarterback's mind. The weaknesses here are the deep ball to the outside part of the field (difficult throw), and play-action. Remember how I discussed the importance of getting BYU out of the run game? This is why. If BYU isn't running well, it will diminish the effect of the play-action fake. The robber coverage can also be effective against pick routes, particularly out of the bunch formations, because often times the throw coming out of those alignments is a slant or crossing route over the middle. Hall doesn't do a great job of keeping his eye's downfield when he re-sets in the pocket from what I have seen,

When BYU uses multiple tight ends, I think FSU can throw another wrinkle at them. Excuse my crude drawing, but my MS Paint is not my forte. I call this Cover-0 Double Robber.

FSU already plays a good bit of cover-0, but this is a nice wrinkle, particularly when BYU uses two tight ends and plays from the shotgun. It enables FSU to have a lot of guys very close to the line of scrimmage, yet has two free-lancing defenders (guys in yellow). Again, this should be effective against BYU's run game, but it should also force Max Hall to hold the ball. He'll think a blitz is coming, because of how many men are up at the line of scrimmage, but when he drops back, a blitz does not come and the quick throw he wanted to make is definitely not available. FSU must force Hall to hold the football. Disrupt timing, make him throw the difficult routes down the field, and make him hold the ball so that FSU's pass rushers can get there, without blitzing. BYU is so good at throwing the short and intermediate stuff. Of course, this coverage is vulnerable to the deep ball, not only on the outside, but down the middle as well. This is a known and accepted risk should FSU elect to employ this defense at all. Remember that Miami burned FSU's man-0 coverage several times, but that they have special athletes BYU just doesn't have. BYU must scheme their way down the field, while Miami can sometimes just sprint. BYU's guys won't simply fly by FSU's corners. BYU's wide receivers are so good at making the right reads and sitting down in holes, but it is very difficult for a QB to judge both the trail man on the drag/cross and also a robber coverage guy. FSU's speed enables them to play this coverage at times. Also, Hall will expect blitz out of this look. Everyone is up at the line of scrimmage, but who will be rushing? That's the key. With these 2 coverages, FSU should expect to get beat deep some, but when they do, it will be on low percentage throws.

I also think these coverages will work against their Texas and Angle stuff.

Making Hall re-set in the pocket and taking away his safe throws is smart and effective, but at some point, Hall will realize that FSU is blanketing his short stuff and will look to other routes. That's when FSU will blitz. But FSU must blitz intelligently. They cannot simply walk their blitzers to the line of scrimmage and run. Delayed blitzes should work well here. Hall will think the blitzer is in some sort of zone coverage, but then he rushes in. WIth the Cougar's huge splits, their linemen are vulnerable to this because they don't have the lateral quickness to slide and stop a late charging Nigel Bradham. The key will be to get Hall to think his short stuff is covered, BLITZ, and get there after he has moved on from the short stuff but before he gets to his deep progressions.

FSU has to do a lot better job blitzing as a team. By that I mean that currently, FSU is very selfish when they blitz. FSU will call a blitz, and 5 of the 6 people involved should be making sure they have proper positioning to occupy a speciifc blocker so that the blocker cannot block the blitzing man. The the blitzer rushes in untouched to the QB. Instead, FSU's guys all just try to get the QB. There's no organization or coordination between DE Coach Jodey Allen and LB Chuck Amato here, and there should be. Timing also plays a big factor here. Shocker here, but if the offense knows you are blitzing, they will have an easier job accounting for you! Imagine that! When FSU does blitz in a well-timed fashion, it seems more like luck than an intentional, organized plan.

On the Prowl. Remember how BYU isn't very good throwing in long situations? Most teams aren't. Hall doesn't have the arm to drive the ball downfield into tight windows. His ball flutters and often hangs. If FSU can stop BYU's run, or if BYU just falls in love with the pass, FSU will have a chance to break out their prowler formation. Remember that BYU's offensive line is huge but slow. One false step by a Cougar offensive lineman could spell doom for Max Hall because they can't move laterally quick enough to handle a blitzing defender. In any case, FSU likes to line up guys in crazy spots, with everyone standing up and only onw down lineman. FSU got the idea from summer trips to New England and Pittsburgh. It's very tough for the offense to know who is blitzing and who is in coverage. The Giants under Bill Belichek and Parcells used this to perfection against the Buffalo Bills in super bowl XLii in Tampa. Jim Kelley's shotgun offense was limited by the uncertainty. Against an offense that is based on automatic throws "if he is here, I throw here", FSU must create some uncertainty as to the QB's reads, and at the very least, must make him choose the difficult throws on his decision tree. The key though is to make BYU 1-dimensional. A good team will run right at the prowler if a defense employs it in a non obvious passing down situation.

Here's a good look at the prowler: (click to enlarge and read)

Remember, force 3rd and long!

Also, be careful of the Screen game. BYU runs a lot of screens, which is another reason not to blitz heavily (though faking the blitz and backing off should be great). I don't think BYU is a great screen team because their linemen are so slow, but they run them well enough. They also ran a Shovel-pass last weekend. Here's a screencap:

The guy in red is the pitch man. Tulane covered it so Hall kept it, but I don't expect to see this from BYU against FSU. They probably just ran it so FSU would have to waste practice time defending it.

In the end, I think FSU can be successful making Hall hesitate, forcing him into difficult throws, pressuring him once he is comfortable, and keeping him from being perfect. BYU will get their 28 points and 415 yards, but they will also have 2 or 3 turnovers. I just don't trust this defensive coaching staff to both come up with and impart a cohesive, logical gameplan to FSU's players. Thus, I can't see them Holding BYU under 24 points. But 28 is reasonable because FSU will get to the ball faster than some of BYU's other opponents, and that could rattle Hall and his receivers. I would not be at all surprised to see a tipped pass go for an interception the other way.

Welcome back to "The Final Score," our weekly prediction column that our readers have been clamoring for all week. This is where we, the self proclaimed experts here at Tomahawk Nation, match our through in-depth understanding, analytical skills, wisdom, and football knowledge, against you the readers psychic abilities, or better yet, guesses, for Saturday's expected shoot out between our Florida State Seminoles and the Cougars from BYU.

Before getting into the predictions for this week's game, I would like to recognize loyal Tomahawk Nation reader chris28, who last week won something shiny for his prediction and for coming closest to the final score in last weeks FSU-Jax St near debacle. Congratulations chris28.

So let's get it on.

First we will start with the predictions from kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homer authors here at TN, or even better yet, THE GOOD GUYS.

The K-Man= FSU 27 - BYU 21

oline0175= FSU 28 - BYU 24

MattDNole= FSU 31 - BYU 28

nolesblogger= FSU 35 - BYU 31

TrueCubbie= FSU 35 - BYU 33

pbysh= FSU 28 - BYU 24

FrankDNole= FSU 45 - BYU 35

Next, here are the predictions from those no-good, know nothings, or those we lovingly refer to as, THE BAD GUYS.

Nattylite= BYU 49 - FSU 24

SWFLNole= BYU 38 - FSU 28

FSUSOM= BYU 48 - FSU 35

Fsued= BYU 28 - FSU 24

And finally, we have

ricobert1= who is MIA, but will be added to one of the two categories when he responds,

and of course

FSUn= TBA in the upcoming Game Preview.

Now we are eager to learn what the most knowledgeable Nole fans on any of the FSU boards expect the final score to be for this game. Once again, the prize will be something shiny which will be given for the closest prediction (not spread) to the final score. At the end of the season, the reader (or author) who has won the most Shiny Awards will receive the grand prize, a much larger and shinier prize.

ARE YOU FEELING LUCKY? WELL ARE YOU PUNKS?

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

Florida State Coaches Continue to Push the Seminole Offense

FSUncensored — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 19:52:56 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State University assistant head football coach Jimbo Fisher continues to push his offense towards perfection. Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

We haven't done a practice update piece in a while, so I figured with 12 days until the battle with the scUMbags from Miami, we should update. Now, we don't watch practice, so all of our information is second hand, and no, we won't reveal all of our sources.

Make sure to check our FrankDNole's excellent series on the Miam-FSU rivalry.

Reading the Andrew Carter and Steve Ellis stories, and talking with others, it seems the coaches went out of their way to call out the offense after yesterday's practice. I'm not buying it. The offense has routinely worked the defense, both in practice, situational, and scrimmage settings. Let's take a look at what they told Carter:

-On offense, lining properly is still a concern for the coaching staff. There have apparently been a number of issues with personnel being in the right spots at the right time. A little disconcerting, given the start of the season is less than two weeks away. Andrew Carter- Orlando Sentinel

And Ellis' article talks about the offense not lining up correctly. FSU can't practice more than the NCAA mandate, but they damn sure can tell their kids to study their film and playbooks more. There's also some give and take here. You can't have all positive press or all negative press. Coaches are master motivators (or they try to be) and when you have one unit that is more talented, better coached, and just all around better, you have to find a way to keep them motivated. If it's not showing them how a defense beat them in practice (which isn't happening often), it's through use of the media. On the same token, coaches know what the defense is doing, but they are smart to alternate positive and negative press.

I have no concerns about lining up correctly. FSU is pretty much done with serious contact in practice and they have plenty of time to work on the finer points of alignment. This is something you know if you played football. In fact, I find it encouraging that the coaches are harping on alignment for the offense. It tells me there aren't serious other concerns. Sure, each unit has some question marks, but they aren't glaring. On the other hand, espousing concerns about the defense to the media might not do much to help them. They see in the film room how the offense is routinely ripping off 25yard+ plays.

But Fisher knows this offense has a lot of potential and once they reach a certain plateau, he has to point out the new goal and push them toward that new height. Part of that is mastering the expanded playbook, but a lof of this are these young players not realizing how good they can really be.

-Talked with offensive line coach Rick Trickett briefly after practice and he said the right side of his line is still undecided. There are some good position battles going on there for first-team spots. Zebrie Sanders is likely to win the job at right tackle, but he is getting challenged by Rhonne Sanderson. At right guard, Brandon Davis is challenging incumbent David Spurlock, Trickett said. Andrew Carter- Orlando Sentinel

Ditto Trickett. This David Spurlock v. Brandon Davis battle is real. Davis made good progress over the summer. When I first heard about that, I dismissed it, but Spurlock did have his arm surgery and Davis probably passed him for a time this summer. While I do think Spurlock has the higher ceiling, this is about who starts for the Miami game and for that game, ceiling be damned. Play the best current player (the same applies to the Greg Reid debate). I believe this Andrew Datko stuff to be just a motivational ploy. Rhonne Sanderson has a chance to be a good college player, but unless Datko has an injury I am not aware of, Datko will start at Left Tackle.

I wanted to comment on another excellent Andrew Carter article. Read it. We've been pretty steadfast in our contention that last year's passing game problems were mostly on the offensive line's inability to pass protect, and not Christian Ponder. While some will argue that it's easier to throw in a non-contact jersey in practice, I'll argue the opposite- if the QB is at all touched, the play is dead. How often is a QB brushed in the pocket in a real game before making a great play by stepping up and firing? Particularly a mobile QB like ponder. As AC says, the pass protection has improved, Ponder has time to throw, and the offense is making big big plays. Our 1st team passing game numbers have been insane, something along the lines of 70% completions, almost 18 yards per completion, and a near perfect QB rating, with no interceptions.

And Carter rightfully hypes the wide receivers, because they have had a lot of poor press over the past year. The most encouraging thing for me is the emergence (re-emergence?) of slot wideout (the Y) Rod Owens, who now gives another option than Taiwan Easterling, and Senior Richard Goodman, who has big play potential and has the demeanor of a grown man.

As for the defense, it is more talented this year than last, but I still have my concerns. They were destroyed in the 1st scrimmage, and in the 2nd scrimmage, the headlines read that they improved, but my take on them is that they did well on the goal line (4 plays out of 60), and they crowded the box to stop the run game, which they did, but they gave up 3 or 4 scoring strikes of 35+ yards! Stopping the run is obviously essential, and FSU's offense should again be the best in the ACC so their competition is pretty good here, but overall I think the secondary will take an inordinate amount of blame for some failures that are a result of being put in a poor situation. What situation? The defensive line and linebackers can't stop the run without significant help from the safeties, and when safeties are playing run only, the cornerbacks are hung out to dry. Failure by cornerbacks in this situation against modern passing games should be expected, unless the offense is vastly inferior to the defense. But there is some encouraging news here as well, as the defensive tackle play is better this year than last, some crucial defensive backs are now back from injury, and most teams don't have a run game like FSU. I'm just saying to temper your enthusiasm and read the reports for what they say and what they don't say. I don't buy that the defense played well because they had a few tackles for loss as a result of blitzing their head off and a few sacks (which could be touching the QB with one hand due to the non-contact jersey), when then a few paragraphs later that the offense averaged 10 yards per play and the defense had zero interceptions. Temper the enthusiasm on the defense, but also realize that Mickey's defense is built to play with a lead! That's a flawed design, but our offense just might be good enough to give the defense a big lead in a few games this year.

With summer camp drawing to an end, it's been a great off-season. Only one off-season arrest, on a bogus charge which was later dropped. Only two injuries to key players (DT and possible starter Justin Mincey who will miss at least a month, and backup RT Antwane Greenlee whose knee injury information is yet to be released). Player participation and attendance in voluntary activities is at an all-time high (so I'm told, I am not there to mark who is showing up).

At this point, I feel great going into the Miami game. People overrated FSU last year entering the season, but they might be underrating the 'Noles this year. Miami is going to be without DE Adequle Ojomo. They will have DE Eric Moncur, but he hasn't practiced in almost two weeks and could be rusty coming off this complex groin injury.

Other opponent news: NC State lost their #2 Tight End Mario Carter. Big deal? Think again, they were going to use him a lot and this definitely helps FSU.

Bulls' Defense	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.	39th
S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link.	38th	10th	78th
S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only	3rd	2nd	6th

1	Florida State	0.107
2	Syracuse	0.086
5	UCLA	0.052
8	Miami	0.045
10	Wisconsin	0.038
11	LSU	0.037
16	North Carolina State	0.021
23	Texas	0.016
29	Pittsburgh	0.012
37	Duke	0.008
44	Florida	0.004
48	Clemson	0.001
51	Virginia Tech	0
52	Vanderbilt	-0.002
53	Maryland	-0.002
56	BYU	-0.004
57	North Carolina	-0.005
61	USC	-0.006
70	Georgia Tech	-0.012
71	South Florida	-0.012
83	Rutgers	-0.021
93	Virginia	-0.029
94	Wake Forest	-0.029
106	Boston College	-0.044
120	Auburn	-0.093

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4