SB Nation - Nigel Bradham

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Florida State Seminoles Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:52:28 -0000

More photos » by Ethan Hyman - AP

Russell Wilson should have a field day against Florida State's defense. Can FSU outscore the 'Pack? (AP Photo/The News Observer, Ethan Hyman)

Browse more photos »

Time: Noon Eastern
TV: Raycom or Espn360.com
Weather
Line: FSU -10/ (Over/Under 64)

Last year, Florida State pulled the game out 26-17 on a Thursday night in Raleigh. The Pack's offense tore up FSU's defense for the better part of the 1st half. Then FSU's offense took over and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, taking the pack off their game. FSU stopped only 4 of State's 12 1st down rushes for 1 or fewer yards. The pack had 3 runs over 15 yards and a bunch of runs over 10 yards. Russel Wilson had a QB rating of 139. He completed 5 passes of 15+ yards. FSu had only 1 sack on 26 Pack passing plays. FSu's offense struggled early, being called for 5 holding penalties in the first half, and allowed sacks on 8% of passing plays. Eventually, FSU managed to get the run game going and pulled it out.

Inside, you'll find find the most comprehensive preview on the net.

NC State's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

NC State has roughly the 25th best offense in the country. Here's what they've done so far against 1a teams.

NC State Offensive Performance
Opponent	South Carolina	Pittsburgh	Wake Forest	Duke	Boston College
Opponent Defensive Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	17th	59th	46th	79th	3rd
Plays	56	80	69	53	82
Yards Per Play	2.4	6.6	5.5	6.4	4.8
Rushes	25	45	25	19	25
Yards/ Rush	3.7	4.9	4.4	8.6	3.8
Passing Plays	31	36	44	34	57
Yards/ Pass Play	1.3	8.9	6.1	5.1	5.2
1st Downs- Success-Stuffed	22-5 (23%)-11	34-14 (41%)-5		26-12 (46%)-10	33-12 (36%)-14
Standard 2nd Downs	4-9 (44%)	7-13 (54%)		2-5 (40%)	11-12 (92%)
Passing 2nd Downs	2-10 (20%)	7-17 (41%)		5-11 (45%)	4-17 (24%)
Standard 3rd Downs	5-5 (100%)	3-4 (75%)		4-6 (67%)	3-8 (38%)
Passing 3rd Downs	0-10 (10%)	4-9 (44%)		0-5 (0%)	2-12 (17%)
Note	State lost their starting left tackle and never really recovered. Untimely penalties also killed them.	Had a 21 yard bad snap, so #'s are much better. Plays of 25, 30, 16, 17, 13, 19, 17, 29, 17, 11, 19, 16, 23, 33, 24, 26, 38, 21, 22, 21	No down-by-down pre-sorted data available.	Pr	j

Guys, this is scary. The worst defense State has played was rated 79th. FSU's is 104th. There are only 120 teams in division 1. I personally believe FSU's defense should be around #110 or 112, because 2 of their opponents ran a prevent offense while the game was still in doubt, which made their performance look better. Let's show this to you in graph form. Here are the defenses NC State has faced to date:

Of course, the lower the number, the better. NC State should have their best offensive day of the year.

But what about the offenses the putrid FSU defense has faced?

NC State is clearly a step above BC, UNC, and USF in terms of offense.

And here's what FSU did against those offenses

Opponent	Miami	@ BYU	USF	at BC	GTech	@ UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	22nd	6th	94th	61st	2nd	91st
Plays	74	53	60	57	63	68
Yards Per Play Allowed	6.4	9	6.2	7.1	8.5	4.9
Rushes	29	18	37	34	55	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.4	6.3	5	5.7	7.4	6.7
Passing Plays	35	35	23	23	8	30
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	10.8	10.3	8.2	9.1	16.4	2.7

So NC State is decidedly the 4th best offense FSU will have faced. Against similar or better offenses, FSU has been absolutely torched.

So back to NCST. They haven't run but you know they will. Their run game appears to be pretty good but for whatever reason, they've abandoned the run game. No idea why they've been abandoning the run. Against Florida State, I'd say they should not abandon the run.

Their primary run game is the zone read.

NCST runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

That's the one where the QB in the shotgun reads the backside defensive end. The line blocks away from him. If the end stays at home to keep the QB in check, the QB will hand the ball off because they have the numerical advantage. If the end "crashes down", the QB will keep the ball. As linked above, FSU does not do well against this at all. This stuff is the number one weakness of FSU's defense. By far. And this defense is banged up, undisciplined, and unsurprisingly not well coached by a disinterested and fractured defensive coaching staff. I would choose to run this against FSU even if I didn't have the personnel to do so. That is exactly what Boston College did to beat FSU last season with their terrible offense. it is what multiple offenses do to FSU.

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Unfortunately, defending this requires discipline. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and okay in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against State's 3 or 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

It really sucks to pin your defensive hopes on the chance that the opposing offense will play stupidly or get impatient and abandon the run.

I have noticed that NC State hits a lot of big plays. Their drives are often erratic, looking like: incomplete, scramble for 2, throw for 20, run for no gain, run for 40 (TD). FSU gives up a ridiculous amount of big plays due to their coaching (players out of position due to coaching).

FSU must contain Russell Wilson. The teams which have done the best job slowing this Wolfpack attack haven't even really rushed the kid at all. They just play patty-cake with the opposing linemen, bull-rush the middle, and then tackle Willson if he tries to leave the pocket. FSU's defensive coaches are negligent at best and won't have FSU's defense ready to do this. Instead, they will wildly rush Wilson, he will break contain, and then we will throw things at the TV.

NCST likes to throw to their tight end a lot. He's George Bryan. FSU doesn't cover the tight end worht a damn. That's a recipe for disaster, especially when you consider that...

NC State runs a ridiculous amount of trips sets. FSU fans know that the 'Noles absolutely have no clue against a set involving trips.3 Wideouts to 1 side, with a tight end on the other, a good runningback and an exceptionally mobile quarterback. This could be ugly.

NC State's offensive line blocks well. The offensive line boasts four seniors: Julian Williams at guard, Jerraill McCuller at tackle and Ted Larsen at center (Williams and Larsen are actually graduates). Those three players boast 69 starts between them. They have a decent Junior left tackle. These guys give Wilson a ton of time, though in fairness, teams rarely rush him. Their running back is 5'10" 225lb RsSr. Toney Baker. The guy is a load and will be trouble for FSU's tiny defense. Scat-back Jamelle Eugene provides a nice changeup. State has one good wideout, Owen Spencer, who is a burner. The rest of their wideouts aren't special. Wilson is an excellent runner and he also has a good arm. He is erratic at times, particularly when throwing to his left (tendency? ;) ), but his problems do not show up against man coverage like they do against zone coverage.

via media.scout.com

Prediction: I expect NC State to gain 7.7 yards per play, which would be their best effort on the year, by far. Specifically, that'd be about 20% greater than their best performance of the year. How many points will they score? Read on.

North Carolina State's Defense v. Florida State's Offense.

FSU's offense isn't above average. It isn't good. It is elite. And damn that feels good to say!

You know that FSU runs a pro-spread attack, which has been leaning more and more towards the spread due to the injury to excellent blocking tight end Caz Piurowski, the amazing play of QB Christian Ponder, the plethora of talented receivers, and backs who run well without a fullback. FSU's offense is currently the 4th best in the country. Here's their game by game breakdown:

Opponent	Miami	BYU	USF	BC	GT	UNC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	12	64	40	3	39	20
Plays	71	77	64	71	66	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.7	6.6	4.5	5.8	8.2	6.7
Rushes	28	49	22	28	28	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	4.5	6.4	2.8	2.9	6.9	2.3
Passing Plays	43	28	42	43	38	42
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	6.4	7.1	5.4	7.7	9.1	9.2

That's a very good offense. Every defense they've played has been in the top half (except BYU, which is 4 spots off). 5 are in the top 4, 3 in the top 20, and two in the top 12. Looking at FSU's raw numbers without considering their opponents is insane. Let's take a look at this in chart form:

What sticks out to me is just how good BC and Miami's defense's are. Carolina's is also very good and will look even better considering what they did to VTech last night. It also tells me that USF literally played the game of their life. This indicates that NC State's defense is the 2nd worst FSU will have faced, and I agree with the numbers here.

So let's look at how NC State's defense has performed:

Opponent	USCe	Pitt	Wake	Duke	BC
Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Ranking (Opponent Adjusted)	58	22	40	26	65
Plays	64	46	77	80	64
Yards Per Play Allowed	4	6.5	5.1	6.4	7.6
Rushes	39	22	26	28	38
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.2	4.6	2.9	2.6	8.1
Passing Plays	25	24	51	52	26
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	5.2	8.3	6.8	8.4	6.9

That's not a particularly good defense. Let's take a look at the relative qualities of the offenses they have faced.

Yeah... FSU's offense is significantly better than anything NC State has seen so far. And FSU has already seen 5 defenses better than NC State.

They run a 4-3 most of the time, with a nickel, 3-4, or 3-3-5 on obvious passing downs. They play almost exclusively zone now, because their defense has seen some seriously bad injuries. And it is a soft zone. They do not pattern read. They will try to stay in their base defense against 3 wideouts.

On defense, they have 3 good players. Defensive End Willie Young is a mid-round NFL guy and he played well last year against Datko. I expect Datko to handle him this time. Alan-Michael Cash is a quality defensive tackle. Smallish but a good penetrator, he has a shot at the NFL. DeAndre Morgan is a quality corner. The rest of their defense is average to below average.

Remember our conversation with BackingThePack.com:

NCST has given up a lot of points on defense this year, has there been any talk of personnel or scheme changes for the upcoming game? Where do you think NCST matches up well against FSU's offense, if at all?

I don't expect any significant changes simply because the staff's options on that side of the ball are extremely limited. In the secondary, for example, we've got underclassmen backing up all four positions. There's not much to like about NC state's back seven, but at the same time, I trust that they are playing the best guys available. Which is truly frightening.

With the defense flaming out so spectacularly over the last few weeks, defensive coordinator Mike Archer has earned the attention of the Fire Somebody crowd. Tom O'Brien voiced his support earlier this week both for Archer and for our zone-heavy bend-but-don't-break scheme. If there are some wrinkles in that scheme on Saturday, I would think they'll come in the form of a little more man pressure. But that's just not who these guys are, so I'd expect the conservative approach most of the time. Hope I'm wrong about that. Everybody's killed this poorly-executed zone, and Ponder won't be an exception. Teams are doubling defensive end Willie Young and effectively neutralizing him, and none of the other guys are stepping up to make plays. Take Willie out of the equation, torch the secondary. Rinse, repeat.

So, no, there is nothing I like about how the Wolfpack defense matches up with FSU's offense. Perhaps they'll be able to limit FSU's unimpressive ground game, but I don't figure that to matter.

The Pack is extremely thin on defense. This year's team was hurt by a pair of offseason defections by kids who could have been useful players in the secondary. One of whom may have started at corner. Safety Javon Walker, who was very good two years ago, was lost to a knee injury and never got back on the field. Freshman corner Rashard Smith, one of the few pleasant surprises in the secondary, is done for the year. Linebacker Nate Irving survived a horrific car accident that cost him his season. And Linebacker Ray Michel (who played with me in High School) is also out. Michel was the defensive captain and called the defensive signals. Freshman C.J. Wilson replaces Rashard Smith as the starter at boundary corner. Justin Byers is the backup. Freshman Gary Grant is now the reserve at field corner. In the first seven games of 2009, NC State has used six different starting lineups in the defensive secondary. Injuries, abilities and experience have all been factors in the changes as the coaching staff tries to find the right combination. Cornerbacks DeAndre Morgan and Rashard Smith and safety Clem Johnson have all missed time due to injuries this season. Some players have started at different positions, including Koyal George at field and boundary corner, Johnson at field and boundary safety and Justin Byers at field safety and boundary corner. This week could mark the seventh new lineup in the backfield, as Smith went down with an injury and C.J. Wilson is slated to be back in the starting lineup (he started the season opener). State has no upperclassmen at linebacker.

I expect FSU to come out and run the ball if NC State plays as soft of a zone as I expect they will. Look for FSU to put up 8.3 yards per play, their best performance of the season.

Special Teams

Ah, the forgotten units.

Let's just say that FSU's special teams return and cover units have been great while NC State's have been terrible:

FSU has the 12th best return/ cover teams while State has the 117th best (or 3rd worst nationally). Greg Reid against a depleted cover team? Yes please.

NC State has been unlucky

A large percentage of State's turnovers have been returned for touchdowns or long returns. That is a bit unlucky. Keep that in mind. Their defense is not as bad as the 50 BC put up or the 49 duke put on them. Part of that was ridiculous turnovers.

Bye Week

NCST off of a bye week has been great under O'Brien.

Pace

This is big. Both teams could slow the pace and look to protect their defenses. The Over/Under for this game is the highest in recorded FSU history (64). But this game could be lower scoring than some are predicting if the teams try to hold the ball. That's not to say the offenses won't dominate- they will, but the total number of play could be reduced.

Prediction

lt's go time. I do think that the teams might run the ball a bit more than usual (wise to do). That'll result in a reduced number of plays. How about 65 per side. NC State gains 500 yards. FSU gains 540. A nice return play by Greg Reid will help the 'Noles to pull this one out, 38-34. That might be a shock to some of you, but this team is off a bye, FSU's defense is truly one of the worst in the entire country, and NC State's offense matches up perfectly. In the end, Ponder will abuse State's linebackers with passes over the middle, and pick apart the zone.

Processing the Result: USF's Offense v. Florida State's Defense

FSUncensored — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:03:03 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

Florida State's Defense didn't hold down USF, the Bulls stopped themselves, and that doesn't bode well for the Seminoles' defense in future games. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Browse more photos »

I'll start this with a few caveats. FSU's defensive coaching staff is a mess. Legendary defensive Mickey Andrews wanted to retire after 2007 (after his son Ronnie died unexpectedly), but was begged back by the old guard. He wanted to retire after 2008, but was begged back by Jimbo Fisher so that Bobby Bowden wouldn't make the disastrous move of promoting Chuck Amato to defensive coordinator. I won't speak ill of Mickey often, because he's been a great Nole, never selfish, and even in this his worst season ever (to date), he is doing FSU a greater service than most know by blocking Chuck Amato from taking the defensive coordinator position. It's thought that Bowden would have been allowed to name Amato as DC if Mickey had retired after last season, but not if he stayed on for this season and then retired. The ability to hire the defensive staff seems to rest on Jimbo. it would be silly to allow Bowden, a man who will be here for only one more season, to bring in the defensive staff he wants for only 12 games, and then make Fisher put the team through another coaching change (their third defensive coordinator in three years). For the administration to do anything but allow Fisher to select the defensive staff after Mickey retires this off-season (and he is retiring), would be to send a message that they simply do not care about the football program. If that happened, I would expect a string of bad seasons and a half-decade long rebuilding job following 2010. But I am told that will not happen. Fisher will be allowed to select the defensive staff and leave Bowden with no friends on staff. So Mickey doesn't want to be here. Amato is doing everything short of outright sabotage to hurt Fisher and tarnish his image. Amato is the evil on this team, while Bowden is the one enabling him and worse yet, trusting him. He also isn't coaching within the confines of Mickey's defense, and is telling kids things which run counter to what Andrews wants. Defensive Ends coach Jody Allen is one of the worst football coaches anywhere, and his continued employment is a joke. He's also rumored to have lost or chipped two teeth recently after an offensive coach, finally fed up with his inappropriate practice antics, hauled off and punched him in practice. Oh, and under Bowden's watch in 2006 and 2007, the defensive recruiting was completely horrible and without any rhyme or reason, so there are serious depth issues with the defense. Take zero defensive depth plus horrible coaching from coaches who are either has beens or never was', some of whom are more consumed with goading other members of the coaching staff than coaching their own position group and some who just don't want to be there, and you have a recipe for the worst Florida State defense in over a quarter century.

I am calling this series "Processing the Results" because results are only repeatable if the process justifies them.

	Good Process	Poor Process
Good Result	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.	Team was lucky , future poor process unlikely to yield similar good results.
Bad Result	Team was unlucky, future good process unlikely to yield similar bad results.	Result Justified, good indicator of future performance.

So my goal in these will be to determine whether FSU's result justified their "process" (aka how they played). Anyone can just say "14 points, great defense", or "7 points, bad offense." They might be right, but I would like to make sure they are correct.

In this case, this was bad process, good result. Simply put, USF should have scored a lot more points, and it wasn't FSU that kept them from doing so. I'll explain why. I am quite concerned about this result, because it gives a false sense of self confidence. USF should have scored 35 points. In the preview I wrote:

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Daniels' above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. FSU must force Daniels to be accurate and drive, not allow the big play. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

And FSU allowed 14 points, but their play was much worse. USF missed two crucial field goals. They had guys running wide open all through the secondary, and Daniels just didn't see them, or overthrew them, or USF dropped the balls (like the wide open 45 yarder). After watching the tape, I was amazed at just how poorly Daniels read the defense. This does not bode well for future games. I can't honestly say that FSU's defense played any better in this game than they did against Miami or BYU. Sure, the points allowed was better, but USF's offense is not very good.

Time for a Youth Movement in the Secondary

As for the secondary players, let's start with Korey Mangum. We sure see # 22 running after wideouts who are on their way for 70+ yard TD's, but this is again process v. results v. prudent moves for the future of the program. Mangum didn't blow the coverages on those two long touchdowns, and he didn't blow the coverage on the long dropped pass either. So don't blame him for those plays. But there were other plays in which he busted coverages and Daniels just didn't hit the open receiver. I've seen enough of Mangum. He's not a good player. He might be better right now than some of the young players FSU has, but Florida State needs to go with a full youth movement on defense, much like UF did in 2007, before winning it all last season. The rule needs to be "Seniors who aren't significantly better than the underclassmen behind them need to sit the bench. That means Mangum sits the bench, and freshmen JaJuan Harley and Nick Moody play the strong safety/ rover position. Patrick Robinson will continue to play corner, and he is the best corner I have seen this year in college football. So should Ochuko Jenijie, because he is a lot better than most of you think, and will be a starter next year. Still, young guys like Dionte Allen (who blew the coverage on the long bomb along the sideline) should rorate with Jenijie. Ditto guys like Terrance Parks, who should rotate some with Jamie Robinson.

As for Greg Reid, I really think this is getting out of control. Greg is good when he can free-lance, but right now he is not ready to play on the base defense. Mickey Andrews was right in his press conference. Reid doesn't play his responsibility and tries to do too much. Until he proves that he can play man-coverage without trying to pay attention to the running game, he can't play on the base defense. That is not a coaching issue, or an experience issue, it's just simply a Greg Reid personal discipline issue. He can continue to be good in the underneath Nickel coverage, but even there, Reid gambles a lot and committed at least two pass interference penalties.

Yet I worry about a conflict of interest. Mickey Andrews is a prideful man, and with this being his last season, I can see, for personal reasons, why he would not want to go with a youth movement. But the real problem there, is of course, Bobby Bowden, who is again making decisions which are solely to benefit himself but counter to the interests of the program.

Run Defense is the Root of the Problem as Front-7 Size Rears its Ugly Head

I think a lot of the problems on defense, outside of the coaching and the lack of depth, is the complete inability to stop the run. The problem is still there, even if the results in the first two games didn't show it. We just didn't see it as often in the first two D1 games. Against Miami, FSU loaded up against the run and Miami, anticipating this, threw the ball on first down all over the defense. BYU wasn't much of a run team. But Jax State did a great job with the 11-man run game considering their personnel, and USF had a field day with it. I preached about this all summer, but if you weren't here, or need a refresher, here is part one and part two. Simply put, FSU's defensive scheme is outdated, depending only on speed, completely lacking in size, too dependent on their defensive backs to assist with the run game, which against a modern defense isn't realistic, and is now exploited by those modern offenses, even in their simplest forms. FSU's defensive backs aren't as bad as you think they are. The pressure on them is enormous, and their focus is divided on the run game, when they should be focusing on the pass because of the man coverage FSU asks them to play demands their undivided attention. So what do you do, allow the defense to be run on? It's just an impossible situation.

Let's take a look at the traditional box score against what really happened:

	Traditional Box Score	Smart Box Score
Rushing Plays	42	37
Rush Yards	153 (3.6)	187 (5.05)
Pass Plays	21	23
Pass Results	215 (10.2)	189 (8.2)

The change here is that the two sacks are counted as the failed result of a passing play in the Smart Box Score, as it should be. I also removed the QB Kneeldowns to end the game. Those are not contested plays.

187 rushing yards on 37 plays for USF is scary. It's over 5 yards per carry. USF's Offensive Line is Garbage. These guys did not impress me, but they dominated FSU's defensive line and linebackers outside of Nigel Bradham (I'll discuss him later). FSU's defensive line got worked by a bad offensive line, and that does not bode well for the future. FSU's defense was exposed by the 11-man rushing attack last season, by some very average offensive coaches, and it is continuing this season. I'll venture to say that FSU will face better offensive lines against Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Florida. The others will be about the same.

And the problem started on 1st down, where USF rushed 19 times, The result: -4, -2 (bad snap), 0, 1, 1, 2 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 13, 44 On first down, when everyone knew USF wanted to run, they ran with success.

And in 2nd and long, FSU routinely let USF set up 3rd and shot, or just convert the play into a 1st down. 2nd down & Long Runs

Distance	Result
7	4
10	29
7	7
7	2
7	8
14	0
12	1
13	14
7	5

So on nine 2nd and long runs, USF gained a first down 4 times, and set up 3rd and short twice. FSU's rush defense failed 6 of 9 times to stop the run on 2nd and long.

As a whole, FSU's front-7 is very poorly coached and the lack of depth is really beginning to show. Again, we shouted about this for the entire off-season, much to the annoyance of many doubters. They fail to play inside out, with solid leverage. They overrun plays. Chuck Amato's freedom system is really hurting this linebacker corps. Amato brought the freedom system back with him after Kevin Steele left, and it basically entails just preaching intensity and making plays over technique, play recognition, and discipline. It was a complete abortion of an idea. FSU's linebackers already made tons of plays, but anyone with half a clue knows that big plays are mostly based on situational factors, not just trying to make them. Amato grew up coaching when FSU had a huge talent advantage over almost every opponent, and when it wasn't popular to expose over-aggressive defensive players via misdirection and the like. He has no idea how to teach linebackers right now, not that he even wants to, but he doesn't teach the players play recognition. The big plays aren't happening for the defense because the guys are out of position. It's complete guesswork on their part. Kevin Steele was a details freak. FSU's linebackers took much better pursuit angles under him. They shed blocks, while now, Amato has them just trying to run around blocks, which doesn't work against the modern offense. They have to play with good inside-out leverage, and it is clear that taking on blocks and playing with that leverage is not being taught in practice.

FSU's defense did the exact opposite of what I called for:

To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. It's not about getting around the blocker and to Daniels, it is about collapsing the pocket and then reacting once he scrambles. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

And that did not happen. FSU routinely lost contain and did not play with intelligence.

As for individual performances, I'll run through them quickly. Markus White is average at best, has no rush moves, and is really a guy who is hurt by Jody Allen's lack of coaching (he never played defensive end or even defense, yet was promoted by Bobby to the position because of familiarity). He also tries to jump around blocks instead of taking them on, stoning them, and shedding them. Kevin McNeil is extremely lazy, and it's sad because he had a chance to play in the league. If FSU had any sort of depth in the defensive front seven (short about 8 players), McNiel would have to work harder or risk losing his starting spot. His late hit penalty was inexcusable, and it was a direct result of him being lazy in the first few seconds of the play. You can tell that McDaniel is more injured than the reports indicated, and FSU is having to use Everette Dawkins at DT. Give Dawkins credit, he played really hard and even made a few plays. I expect him to be a good player eventually, hopefully at defensive end. He should be at end, in a perfect world, but with FSU's lack of depth at defensive tackle last week, they needed him to play. Jamar Jackson isn't any good and I don't expect much out of him. Toshmon seems to have some potential, but he is way too small right now.

I am really disappointed in some of the linebacker play. It's really Nigel Bradham and then everyone else. Bradham plays out of his mind. He takes on blocks and it must just be an innate ability, because it's clearly not being taught to the other backers. His series towards the end of the game, He is the only decent player in the front seven. Dekoda Watson is playing really, really soft. Kendal Smith is terrible and should probably sit the bench in favor of Nigel Carr. Maurice Harriss doesn't impress me much.

The bottom line is that FSU couldn't stop USF's running game, when the Noles had 3 linebackers in the game and USF had 4 wide receivers in.

And if you want more proof as to FSU's run defense being the real problem, I have that for you. Now, remember that USF went way conservative. FSU'd DB's are just too concerned with the run, but they have to be because the run defense is so bad.

In 2nd and 3rd and long situations, FSU's pass defense was excellent, because they didn't have to worry about the run as much. The DB's really are not that bad. It's the front-7.

2nd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
23	Sack
10	Incomplete
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete
10	Incomplete
10	INTerception
7	Incomplete
9	Incomplete

3rd and Long Pass Defense

Distance	Result
7	Sack
10	Incomplete
5	Incomplete
6	INTerception
15	Sack
7	8 yards

That's dominance. This defense is made to play the pass. They just can't stop the run at all.

Strategy Concerns, etc.

I don't want to give away stuff that would hurt the team, though I suspect every other team already knows what i would say. FSU really struggles against any kind of trips alignment. I've seen it for about three years now. The adjustments are much too slow. The coverage checks are obvious and predictable. Georgia Tech is going to kill them on that just as they did last year.

Oh, and the interceptions weren't forced, they were just really dumb throws.

USF basically gave up towards the end of the game, running the same 3-4 plays over and over again. It was depressing. They didn't even try anything risky in the 2nd half.

In closing, the play of the Seminoles defense doesn't suggest this result is not likely to be repeated. FSU's coaches don't have the ability to remedy this now, and they definitely can't make up for two years of poor recruiting in 2006 and 2007.

Can the Noles defense make any adjustments for the Boston College game? I'll tackle that tomorrow.

The Preview Part 2: South Florida's Defense v. Florida State's Offense- with Prediction

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:25:04 -0000

So you read my take on USF's offense against Florida State's defense. One slight addendum to that preview. I know some people on the Western Kentucky team that USF beat. Central Arkansas beat Western Kentucky 28-7 IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. They said that Tennessee's offensive line was much better than USF's offensive line, and that USF's offensive line wasn't much better than that of Central Arkansas. Now let's flip the script. The 'Noles have one of the best offenses in the nation. Against Ranked opponents this season, Florida State is averaging over 450 yards and 44 points. They are talented and smooth. I'll do this like I did the previous installment. Breaking down their defense and what FSU will do to attack it. Finally, I'll have a quick look at the special teams and make a prediction.

This summer I wrote:

Strategy: The Bulls are a 4-3 base team and they do not hesitate to bring an 8th defender into the box to help with run support. They aren't blitz crazy nor are they uber-conservative.

Coach: The Bulls' Defensive Coordinator is Joe Tresey who took over for Wally Burnham after Burnham took the Iowa State job. Tresey was at Cincinatti before this and is highly thought of in some coaching circles and he can be very aggressive. Additionally, HC Jim Leavitt is a defensive minded coach and has a lot of input with his favored unit.

2008

Bulls' Defense Overall Run Defense Pass Defense

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.
39th

S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link. 38th 10th 78th

S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only 3rd 2nd 6th

If you are curious as to what these numbers mean, click on the links. Just know that they are widely accepted by professional gamblers and other people who study the game for their living as the best and most consistent measures of performance.

Front 7

USF's defensive line is the best in the Big East. Phil Steele calls them the 6th best defensive line in the nation. Simply put, they are loaded.

USF loses Defensive End Jarriett Buie and his 5 sacks (all in Big East play). He was a solid contributor and started all 13 games for the Bulls. The only other loss is Sampson Genus, a defensive tackle who is now competing for a spot at center.

At right end is Super Senior George Selvie, a 6'4" 250lb terror who passed up the NFL draft to return to the Bulls. He's a two-time All-American and a favorite to win multiple national awards. As a three year starter (37 games) he has 186 tackles, 60 for loss, and over 20 sacks. He was hampered by injury last year, but when healthy, he's in the conversation for the best defensive end in America. Selvie is just one of the elite pass rushers Florida State Freshman All America Offensive Tackle Andrew Datko will face this year as the 'Noles confront America's toughest schedule.

At the other end position (replacing Buie) are senior Aaron Harris and junior Craig Marshall, along with Jason Pierre-Paul. Harris is a tweener at 6'4" 265lbs and has played defensive tackle for some of his career. He's a more natural end and everyone in USFs program raves about him. He had an excellent sophomore season and is considered the front runner to man the strongside end position by many. Craig Marshall is more of a pass rushing specialist at 6'5 260 and needs to refine his game, particularly by getting in the weight room. He did play in every game last season and had 4.5 tackles for loss. If he makes improvements this offseason, he could overtake Harris. Even if he doesn't start, he will play a lot of snaps for the Bulls. The real wild card here is Paul-Pierre, a stud JUCO transfer (top JUCO defensive lineman in the country). Pierre-Paul stands 6' 5" 265 and some believe he will take the starting spot, mostly based off his impressive film, frame, and recruiting profile. David Bedford had a nice spring game and should also contend for playing time.

At Nose Guard the Bulls have juniorTerrell McClain. At 6'3" and 306lbs, he earned playing time as a freshman and continues to dominate for USF. Both strong and quick, FSU fans should compare him to Moses McCray. McClain should expect to be 1st team Big East in his second season as a starter.

At the other tackle is Rs.Fr. Cory Grissom (6'2" 289lbs), who hurt his ankle early in the season and missed the rest of the season. He has great quickness and athleticism, but is obviously quite raw. Backing him up is 5' 11" 267lb Sophomore Keith McCaskill. He has a good wingspan and is very quick.

NOTE: There is a chance Harris will play tackle not end, so keep that in mind. The coaches are hoping that Grissom can get the job done at tackle, but if he can't or if some of the other ends blow up, Harris could end up back at tackle.

All in all, this is an excellent defensive line with multiple players who could eventually play in the NFL.

.

Linebacker

The departed: USF lost First Team all-Big East Strongside 'backer Tyrone McKenzie, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14.5), to go with a sack, a pick, and eight pass breakups. He is the only significant loss.

USF will still have a strong linebacker corps, and it starts with Senior middle linebacker Kion Wilson, an 11 game starter as a junior at 6'2" 235. He is the big hitter who started 11 games a year ago. His backup will be Michael Lanaris, 6'1" 230 and one of the better linebackers in Florida coming from 2007.

Senior Chris Robinson is currently projected to replace the departed McKenzie on the strong side. At 6'3" 240lbs, he is an decent force player who had a good spring. Some USF fans aren't pleased with him, however, and wonder if he will ever put it all together. A former defensive end, he's an excellent blitzer but also has limited range and is the guy the Bulls pull when facing a 3, 4, or 5 wideout set. Also competing for the job is JUCO stud JaQuan Williams. Phil Steele projects Williams to start at one of the outside backer spots, but I'm not sure on that. Needless to say, he is talented. Sam Barrington and Armando Sanchez also factor in here, but their roles are undetermined right now.

At weakside linebacker, the Bulls will plug in 6' 0" 230lb junior Sabbath Joseph, who played in ever game last season, but not as a starter. He's excellent in coverage but is a bit on the small side and can struggle getting off blocks. Backing him up will be 6' 3", 222lb Senior Donte Spires. He was an excellent JUCO recruit who played well in 2007 and was ineligible last year (academics- redshirt). Don't be surprised if he starts.

Overall this is a decent linebacker corps. None would start for Florida State, Miami, or UF, but they are good.

Lack of Sacks

One thing that was really puzzling to me was USF's lack of sacks. The disparity in their run and pass defense was huge, as they were 10th against the run and 78th against the pass. The Bulls had only 23 sacks in 401 passing plays (sack rate of 6.1%). Part of the reason was Selvie being banged up, but other players also must step up. If they don't, look for the Bulls to blitz more.

I was pretty accurate here. Let's discuss the changes

Along the defensive line, Pierre Paul is starting at left end. The other starters are of course Selvie, McClain, and Grissom. I haven't been particularly impressed with Grissom and he could be exploited. This is still a talented defensive line, but they haven't played quite as well as I expected. The decision to start Pierre-Paul could make them more stout against the run (he started last game and is expected to start Saturday.) He's a very talented player who wanted to play for FSU but was turned away by the lazy defensive coaching staff. At this point, I don't expect to see DT McClain make 1st team All-Big East, but 2nd team is possible. Harris is the backup to Grissom.

At linebacker, it is exactly the same. I will note two things. First, Jacquian Williams, the backup strong side backer is really quick and plays some rush end on passing downs. He's # 57. Second, these guys like to run around a lot, but for their size, they should be better at taking on and shedding blocks. WKU did a nice job getting them blocked on the 2nd level.

As far as the lack of sacks, well, that hasn't really been remedied. USF has played two horrible D1-AA teams, and WKU, a provisional 1A school in Western Kentucky who lost to Central Arkansas 28-7, AT HOME. This year they have 5 sacks on 72 opponent pass plays, a sack on 6.9% of pass plays faced. That'd be good over a season, but that is ridiculously poor against the people they faced. FSU's offensive line is great in pass protection, having allowed only 4 sacks on 108 pass plays. That's a great % of 3.6. And that was against two nationally ranked teams. USF is going to need someone other than Selvie to step up.

FSU has the most athletic offensive line in the country. They can block USF's front 7. I am pretty confident in that. Now, USF's defensive line is much much better than BYU's so it won't be the complete domination we saw in Provo Utah. Their tackles aren't as good as Miami's but their defensive ends are better. That's fine. I'd much much much much rather play against good ends than good tackles.

Before we talk more strategy, let's have a look at USF's Secondary. Over summer, I wrote:

Secondary

Having that extreme dedication to stopping the run does cost USF, however, as their 78th ranked pass defense indicates. USF asks a lot of it's defensive backs (probably too much). That approach could prove interesting this year.

The Departed: USF loses strong safety Carlton Williams, who was their defensive player of the year with his 56 tackles and 3 interceptions. Williams played well for the Bulls, but he wasn't an elite talent and will not be playing pro ball. They also lost one-year starter Tyller Roberts at cornerback, and underrated safety Louis Gachette.

What they're working with:

At boundary corner, USF returns Senior Jerome Murphy. The 6'1" 190lb Murply had an amazing 67 tackles from his corner position to go with his 7 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He is lightning quick and a coach favorite and should compete for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team all-conference honors. His backup is redshirt freshman George Baker.

At field corner will probably be sophomores Quenton Washington and Tyson Butler. Both are average talents who will be tested early and often. They have potential but must work on their consistency.

USF played over half their 2008 snaps in a Nickel formation (5 defensive backs), so the nickel corner position is vital to their defense (or it was last year). The loser of the Washington/ Butler competition will square off against redshirt freshman Jon Lejiste. The field and nickel corner spots are big unknowns for the bulls team and depth could be an issue (though not against FSU, because USF shouldn't suffer much attrition prior to the 'Nole game due to their pathetic opening schedule).

The bulls have a stud in Free safety Nate Allen. He's 6' 2" 205lbs and a serious NFL prospect. Allen will be counted on to be the leader of this group. He had 53 tackles last year, but the bulls would like to be able to use him in more of a centerfield role. Of course, that will depend on their ability to stop the run without over-committing their defensive backs to the run game, similar to how FSU wasn't able to showcase Myron Rolle because the 'Noles needed him to help with their run defense. Allen is a candidate for the Thorpe award.

After starting South Florida's bowl game in December, the sophomore Jerrell Young will take on the starting job at strong safety. Like Allen, he's also 6'2" 205lbs and is a huge hitter. Young has a lot of talent but must put it together quickly. USF wants to have allen focus more on the pass and use Young as their 8th defender against the run.

Consistency is really the name of the game for the Bulls secondary. The new defensive coordinator likes to be very aggressive, and that should work because this secondary is already hyper-aggressive. It could hurt the Bulls, however, when teams hit them deep with double moves.

There are some major changes here. The bulls suffered a major injury to promising sophomore safety Jerrell Young (broken arm). As I noted, he was expected to be their top run defender from the secondary. That necessitated some moves. Murphy was such a good tackler that they decided to move him from his Boundary corner spot to strong safety to replace Jerrell Young. He'll be okay there. But other positions are up in the air.

The Bulls are playing more 4-3 and less 4-2-5 this year, and that was a wise decision in the Spring, though they couldn't have done it in anticipation of Young's injury. It was just preference. The corner positions will be filled with Freshman Webster, Baker, and sophomore Washington (who has been injured with an ankle but is expected back. Butler is also in the mix. Interestingly, when they go to their nickel look, they will put Murphy at Nickel corner and then insert promising redshirt frosh John Lejiste in Murphy's vacated strong safety spot. I am not impressed with the corners for USF- they are both freshmen, but the safety tandem is impressive.

As much as I would like to see FSU spread out the Bulls, I really don't expect them to. I would like to match FSU's 3rd and 4th wideout against 3 redshirt or true freshmen corners for USF. But I don't think it will happen. QB Christian Ponder is in a knee brace and multiple commenter's have noted that he has been limping around campus all week. I have to be honest here- Early this week, I expected E.J. Manuel to start. Ponder's legs are a big part of his game and the Noles offense, but he is also an excellent passer. Everyone expects FSU to shoot Ponder up and start him. There won't be a lot of 4-wide, because Ponder likes to run out of that set so often. He is under strict orders not to run, but the guy will be so amped when they shoot him up, and it's his nature to run. I hope he can avoid further injury.

Also note: he banged up the knee in the 2nd quarter against BYU. It wasn't the result of him being in with a 24 point lead.

What I do expect to see is more like the Denver Broncos or USC. Under center, with 1RB, 1TE, and 3WR's, or 2TE, 2WR's. I really don't want to see a lot of I-Formation. Using the two-tight end set could cause USF some serious problems. Selvie likes to play very wide, and the tight end to his side could force him to make difficult choices.

FSU can run out of both the sets I mentioned. They can also use some 3WR 1TE 1RB Shotgun. WIth the 3WR look, the Bubble Screen option will be available should USF decide not to account for the slot receiver. Here's an example, see the yellow circle to indicate the empty space.

Their linebacker must account for the slot receiver if they stay in their 4-3 base defense. If they get out of that 4-3 base defense, FSU will rip them over and over again with the run. The key will be for their linebacker to split the difference, that is, play far enough out to discourage FSU from throwing the bubble, but not too far as to take himself out of position against the run.

I like FSU to come out and establish the run. It should work. However, because USF's defense is decent, they will probably get some tackles for loss. FSU won't be able to stay out of long down and distance situations the entire game. They will continue to control the ball and keep the defense off the field, however.

While USF has not shown to be a blitz heavy team this season, their DC does have that tendency and FSU needs to be aware of that (they are). I anticipate USF getting frustrated against the run and doing several thigns against which FSU should be able to take advantage. First, they will probably send some run blitzes (different from pass blitzes). To counteract this, look for FSU to bring back the screens over the middle to Fortson and Goodman. These middle screens are highly effective because FSU's offensive line is so athletic, allowing them to block faster players in the open field. Someone once said that the only new thing in football in the past 30 years is the middle screen, as it basically allows the offense to run a kickoff return from scrimmage.

The other thing they will do is stack the box. Murphy (strong safety, but a converted corner) will come up into the box, particularly against the 2TE formations. They will play Allen (free safety) very deep when they do this. While putting more men in the box is effective for stopping the run, it also has a disadvantage: long runs. The reason for this is simply geometry. A player closer to the line doesn't have the angle to catch a player if he breaks a run. He also has less reaction time. If anyone watches the SEA@SF game last weekend, you saw Frank Gore break two 80+ yard runs against the Seahawk defense because he cleared the first wave of defenders and had only one safety to beat, not two, because Seattle played 8 and sometimes even NINE! men in the box.

Additionally, I look for more play-action this week. Getting the ball out of Ponder's hands will be important, because we don't want him taking shots, but another way is to use play-action to make the defense think run before they start rushing the passer. That could put USF in a bind. Their corners are 5'11", 5'11", and 5'10". Everyone lies in media guides, so I am guessing at least one of those kids is really 5'9". Jarmon Fortson is a legit 6'3" and is a beast for a freshman to handle. If FSU can freeze USF on play action, they have an opportunity for a huge play. Ponder must remember to look off Free Safety Nate Allen, who is a legit NFL 2nd round type safety.

Over Summer I wrote:

Can the Bulls improve on their 2008 defense? It really depends. Most likely USF will take a step back in run defense and improve somewhat in pass defense. Their 2008 disparity (10th and 78th) was silly and unlikely to happen again. They will be better if their front 7 can stop the run without much help and their front 4 can generate a solid pass rush. If they continue to throw everything at the run and hang their defensive backs out to dry, however, they could have a rough year, depending on whether the corners can handle their responsibilities. I look for USF's defense to again be top 40 nationally (39th last year), with a run defense in the top 25 and a pass defense that climbs back into the top half nationally. They should have a top 4 defense in the Big East. If the Bulls are to have a shot at winning in Tallahassee, they must have a great defensive performance, selling out for the run grabbing a few turnovers.

It is so tough to judge what USF has done this year. I generally agree with what the above said, except I don't know about their run defense as much now. They will probably be more conservative because of their freshmen corners.

Finally, special teams.

USF has a huge kicker problem. Last season they were 71st in the nation in terms of points earned and points expected from their kicking game. They had solved the problem, but their solution broke his back falling of a Busch Gardens ride. So it's going to be a freshman walk-on or Delbert Alvarado who is just terrible.

1 Florida State 0.107

2 Syracuse 0.086

5 UCLA 0.052

8 Miami 0.045

10 Wisconsin 0.038

11 LSU 0.037

16 North Carolina State 0.021

23 Texas 0.016

29 Pittsburgh 0.012

37 Duke 0.008

44 Florida 0.004

48 Clemson 0.001

51 Virginia Tech 0

52 Vanderbilt -0.002

53 Maryland -0.002

56 BYU -0.004

57 North Carolina -0.005

61 USC -0.006

70 Georgia Tech -0.012

71 South Florida -0.012

83 Rutgers -0.021

93 Virginia -0.029

94 Wake Forest -0.029

106 Boston College -0.044

120 Auburn -0.093

USF should go for every 4th down if at all possible.

Both teams have very good return units and poor kick and punt coverage units.

I expect FSU to get 34 points. FSU should start fast, then USF will adjust and counterpunch and catch up, then FSU has to throw their counters and the offense should be enough to put pressure on USF's offense and force them into mistakes. While I think the potential for a blowout is definitely there, it will only happen if FSU gets a bit early lead. I just don't think the offense goes for 50+, because USF is a decent defense, and because Ponder running and the threat of Ponder running is a decent part of FSU's offense.

34-27 Noles is my pick.

Offensive Player of the game: Andrew Datko.

Defensive Player of the game: NIgel Bradham (must play really well).

South Florida Bulls @ Florida State Seminoles Preview: can the Noles avoid the Bulls' horns?

FSUncensored — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:37 -0000

This is part 1. Here is part 2: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/25/1054873/the-preview-part-2-south-floridas

For the first time ever, the South Florida Bulls will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Gametime is Noon. The game is on ESPNU.

I'm scared of this game. Not because I think USF is good, but because I think the Seminoles are in a bad spot. Riding high off their 54-28 win over #7 ranked BYU, FSU is banged up. Really banged up. They are without DT Moses McCray and DT Justin Mincey. Their only healthy defensive tackles are undersized senior Kendrick Stewart, promising freshman Jacobbi McDaniel- who has a bum MCL, and the high on energy but low on effectiveness Budd Thacker. Additionally, both rovers, senior Corey Mangum and freshman Nick Moody are banged up. Additionally, FSU's lame duck defensive ends coach, Jody Allen, continues to hold a grudge and insists on starting the worst starter in my lifetime (both '85)- walk on defensive end Craig Yarborough.

There are also some situational factors in this game. USF has played the worst schedule in the country, and it is not close. The Bulls faced two 1-AA teams and Western Kentucky, a team that either is or should still be a probational 1A team (easily the worst team in 1A). So making a read on their current in-season performance is a bit tough. I did watch their games, or what I could find of them, so I'll do my best.

I was asked to describe my thoughts on this game, and in a sentence, I said that I thought FSU was a much better team than USF, but that I didn't like the matchup. I just have a bad feeling about this game.

But is it more than a feeling? Let's start with USF's offense against Florida State's defense. Over the summer, I wrote this comprehensive preview of USF's offense.

The Bulls went 8-5 in 2008. They were perfect in the non-conference, with wins over two terrible defensive teams in Kansas and NC State, and an overtime victory against UCF. In the worst BCS conference, however, they were just 2-5, and their two wins came over UConn and Syracuse. To say that USF feasted on bad teams would be an understatement. Yet voters, who often see nothing but a team's record and not the competition they face, had the Bulls as high as #10 at one point. They would lose 4 of 5 down the stretch to finish unranked. This season, as I noted above, they are unranked and have played a terrible schedule.

The Bulls were just 4-5 against BCS conference teams and 2-4 against teams ranked inside the Fremeau Efficiency Index Top 40. Put another way:

Wins	S/ F+	Losses	S/ F +
UT Martin	NR	Pittsburgh	17
@ UCF	NR	@ Louisville	74
KAN	33	@ Cincinatti	19
FIU	NR	Rutgers	24
NCST (w.o their QB)	47	@ WVU	49
Syracuse	90
UConn	26
Memphis	NR

S/ F is a combination of S&P + and FEI, the two widely recognized advanced metrics for evaluating college football teams. The quality of their opponents in wins was far less than that of their opponents in losses.

This year, the Bulls schedule around the 'Noles game looks like this:

2009 schedule:
Sept. 5 Wofford
Sept. 12 @ Western Kentucky
Sept. 19 Charleston Southern
Sept. 26 @ Florida State
Oct. 3 @ Syracuse

The Bulls have a very easy schedule before facing Florida State. They essentially play three 1-AA teams (W. Kentucky is a provisional 1A school, the worst team in 1A). This can help and hurt a team. Having a month of pre-season assures that the Bulls will be able to work out some kinks, ~~and that they will be healthy (starters playing fewer minutes in blowouts means less opportunity for injury)~~. It can also hurt, however, because FSU will be the Bulls' first test of the season. 'Nole fans saw this phenomena last year when they lost to Wake Forest after opening the season with two 1AA cupcakes.

Based on their talent an performance, the Bulls were probably a top 25 team last season, though they were too high early and probably too low late. They did have three close losses in Big East play, and close wins or losses are a great indicator of a team being lucky or unlucky.

Last season, the Bulls Offense looked something like this:

Fremeau Efficiency Index: 48th
Varsity Numbers (aka BeyondTheBoxScore at RockMNation.com, the brainchild of Bill Connelly) S&P+ (measure of ball movement and explosiveness): 21st (34th rushing, 16th passing)
Forget the fact that South Florida led the Big East in total offense and finished second in scoring. It did most of its damage against lesser opponents, while failing to score more than 20 points in the final five regular season games.
In conference play, the Bulls had the 6th best offense (of 8 Big East teams), with the 4th best ground game and the 5th best passing attack. Only UConn and Syracuse were worse (though they were a lot worse).
USF had an unsustainably high success rate on passing downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+) http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-2008-offensive-buffet As the article discusses, USF was really goot at converting 3rd and long, compared to their other talents. That's just not realisticly sustainable. What team is consistently better on 3rd and long than 3rd and 4?
USF averaged less than 350 yards and less than 5.4 yards per play in conference games. (For reference, 400 yard games equal out to about 6.2 yards per play over 65 plays in an average game).

The Bulls run a spread scheme under new Coordinator Mike Canales, featuring a heavy dose of the zone read game. It's 4-wide, pretty much all the time. They will go into trips as well, which gives FSU fits. They force the opposing defense to account for the QB's legs. Canales was the Bulls' passing game coordinator last year and stepped into the OC role after Greg Gregory took another job.

Quarterback

Here's what I wrote about Grothe:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

So obviously I didn't think Grothe was that good. He tore his ACL and his career is over. His backup is Redshirt Freshman B.J. Daniels, a highly recruited kid out of Tallahassee Florida. FSU wanted him as an athlete, because they already had E.J. Manuel as their only QB in the recruiting class. This kid has a great arm. It is a total cannon. But he's not entirely accurate and lacks touch. Kinda one of those kids who rifles everything. He is a physical beast. USF calls him 6'1 or 6'2" in various media guides, but he's somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2". About 215lbs. Fast as heck. USF's offense isn't particularly complicated, and I expect that it is about to get simpler, but it is the exact design of offense that makes Mickey Andrews look washed up and incompetent. Daniels scares the heck out of me because he is a much better physical talent than Grothe, who I didn't think was all that good. He reminds me of a combination of NC State's Russel Wilson, and Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. USF runs the zone read play as their base run play. Here's the video:

Here's a diagram:

So how do you stop this? FSU's defensive coaches have no idea. Good defensive line play helps. Someone must win their one-on-one matchup. Chris Brown of SmartFootball.com has some ideas here.

Now, I know we rip on Craig Yarborough quite often. The kid tries hard, but he is a bad player. That said, his discipline could be somewhat of an asset in this game for the Noles. In order to beat the zone read, a team must have a plan, and everyone must follow the plan. I'm not talking about "everyone go out and make plays" stuff, that's not a plan. Yarborough can help by simply following his assignment here, even if he doesn't physically do it all that well. This is particularly important when he is the read defender on the backside. In Chris Brown's piece linked above, in the 2nd photo, think of Yarborough as the "E" (end) crashing down, and Nigel Bradham as the scraping linebacker. There's an opportunity here for Bradham to have a huge game here.

The zone read is difficult to stop. FSU must have a good gameplan and must change up their looks. I do not have much confidence in FSU to do that. However, I do think FSU has some advantages here. FSU's linebackers are very fast and better than most in coverage. That will allow FSU to stay in a base defense or a nickel defense against USF's 4 wide receiver look. Many teams are forced to use 6 defensive backs against USF's look, but because of FSU's linebackers, the Noles can use only 5 defensive backs. Obviously when trying to stop the run, linebackers are better than defensive backs.

Running Backs

This summer, I wrote:

Mike Ford is a special talent and a likely NFL back. He was a Five-Star recruit coming out of high school but had terrible grades and had to go to through the preparatory school route. Last season, Ford battled numerous injury issues and had a disappointing year. In 2007, however, he was excellent.

2008 2007

Opponent Att Yards Avg. Opponent Att Yards Avg.

Tenn.-Martin 15 61 4.1 Elon 6 83 13.8

@ UCF Did Not Play @ 15 Auburn 21 74 3.5

Kansas 1 3 3.0 North Carolina 6 13 2.2

@ Florida Int'l 14 24 1.7 6 West Virginia 5 42 8.4

@ North Carolina St. 11 64 5.8 @ Fla. Atlantic Did Not Play

Pittsburgh 14 73 5.2 UCF 8 39 4.9

Syracuse 11 51 4.6 @ Rutgers 4 9 2.3

@ Louisville 5 13 2.6 @ Connecticut 7 27 3.9

@ 17 Cincinnati Did Not Play 17 Cincinnati 7 13 1.9

Rutgers 1 2 2.0 @ Syracuse 28 134 4.8

Connecticut 8 20 2.5 Louisville 24 140 5.8

@ 23 West Virginia 14 62 4.4 @ Pittsburgh 16 63 3.9

+ Memphis 8 34 4.3 + 23 Oregon 6 8 1.3

Totals 102 407 4.0 Totals 138 645 4.7

This year, he's apparently lost 20lbs, making him 6'2" 210 rather than the 230 he played at last season. He is apparently quicker and now healthy. You can bet that USF will not risk injuring him against their cupcake schedule before they play FSU.

Canales has been vocal about trying to throw the ball to the backs more often, but Ford has not shown great hands. He may catch a few more now that he is at a better weight, but he's really not that type of back.

Mo Plancher represents another option to carry the ball. At 5'9" and 200lbs, he has surprising quicks, gaining 330 yards on 69 carries last year.

Jamar Taylor is an ex fullback type who tried to carry the load for USF into the bowl season, rushing for 300 yards on 62 carries. He has the savvy and knows the offense well, so he is often asked to handle blitz pickup duties on 3rd downs.

Richard Kelly is a very versatile back for the Bulls. At 6' 0" and 250lbs, he is a receiving threat out of the backfield and also an excellent blocker. Think of him as USF's H-Back.

USF is very deep at the running back position

A few updates here. Ford was suspended for the first two games. He is now back. Plancher has been their best runner. The stuff about throwing to their backs is dubious at best, unless they've been saving it for this game, which is possible, because their backs have accounted for two receptions in three games. Also, Jamar Taylor is out for this game. I expect to see a lot of Ford/Plancher.

Wide Receiver

This summer, I wrote:

Who Left:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G Note

Taurus Johnson SR WR 38 498 13.1 6 2.9 38 Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes

Marcus Edwards SR WR 19 259 13.6 0 1.5 20 31 Career Starts

Cedric Hill SR TE 16 194 12.1 2 1.2 15 2nd Team Big East

Who Returns:

Name Yr Pos Rec. Yards Avg. TD Rec./G Yards/G

Jessie Hester SR WR 54 579 10.7 3 4.2 45

Carlton Mitchell JR WR 28 405 14.5 1 2.2 31

A.J. Love JR WR 30 354 11.8 2 2.3 27

Dontavia Bogan JR WR 26 354 13.6 1 2 27

Ben Busbee SR TE 7 99 14.1 2 0.5 8

Patrick Richardson SO WR 7 68 9.7 0 0.8 8

Trent Pupello JR TE 2 26 13.0 0 0.2 3

The bulls really spread the ball around to a number of receivers and they are really, really deep at this position.

Jessie Hester, is the son of former Florida State great Jessie Hester (1981-84) and is the Bulls best wideout. He was named Offensive MVP for 2008 after leading the the team with 54 receptions. He's been named to a few pre-season All-Big East teams. At 6' 0" 180lbs, he's not a burner but has enough speed to get open and runs very nice routes.

Carlton Mitchell is a 6'4" 215lb Junior who missed a good chunk of 2008 due to injury. When healthy he can be a redzone threat and is very strong and he had a great freshman season. Though he is a Junior, Mitchell is very raw. He's one of the best athletes on the team. FSU fans might compare him to Jarmon Fortson.

Dontavia Bogan at 6'1" 185lbs is an explosive threat who had a good spring. One of several bigtime breakout candidates. Excellent athlete.

A.J. Love was the Bulls' deep threat before injuring his knee in the Bowl game. He is expected back for Fall and is making progress with his rehab. It's anyone's guess as to whether he regains his pre-injury form.

6' 2", 180lb junior Ed Alcin had a very nice spring and could really surprise this year. Some USF fans believe he is the 2nd best wideout on the team, which is saying something considering his lack of playing time in his first two seasons.

Theo Wilson could also catch a few balls for the 'bulls.

The Bulls must replace Hill at tight end and will look to Andrew Ketchel who came on strong towards the end of the season and he started the bowl game. At 6'5" 240, he's the best pass-catcher of the tight ends. Senior workout freak Ben Busbee is primarily a blocking tight end, but he can catch a few balls as well.

Updates: Hester has a bum ankle and will either miss this game or be very limited. Mitchell and Bogan are now their best wideouts. They look to Mitchell a lot and I believe he is the fastest player on the field come Saturday. Love and Wilson get a few balls as well. This group is the polar opposite of BYU. They are very fast and very big. But they are undisciplined and don't run good routes. Hester was the only one who had good receiver and not just athlete skills.

Because they are pretty raw, USF tries to throw little short routes to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space. They throw deep jump balls (again, big tall fast athletes). They throw crossing routes. Their approach is to try and limit the number of routes they run which require precision.

As much as I fawned over Wilson above, there are some obvious difficulties for him. Besides having no game experience, Wilson almost assuredly doesn't have a good relationship with his wideouts. He didn't get as many snaps as Grothe in practice because he was the 2nd team guy. His timing with them can't be great. FSU must force USF to complete precise routes, particularly in the intermediate level. Those require touch, timing, and familiarity between QB & WR.

How will FSU do this? They need to play some zone defense. I would suggest cover-3. I like the cover-3 look because it takes away the deep ball, you can account for at least one flat, and still have 6 defenders in the box against the run. Hopefully by running a lot of cover-3, FSU will force USF to run passable routes and make their correct sight adjustments. USF will need to sit down in the voids in the zone and from watching them, they really don't do that well. I am not sure defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will do this, however, because he is very stubborn and has been badly outschemed for the better part of this decade. Next year, FSU will have a decent defensive staff. For now though, we wait and hope.

Offensive Line

This is clearly the weak link for the 2009 Bulls. USF must replace four Senior starters in Left tackle Ryan Schmidt, center Jake Griffin, right guard Matt Huners and right tackle Marc Dile . Dile and Huners were 2nd team ALL-Big-East players, and the departed quartet accounted for 118 starts (Dile had 36). The Bulls have a major issue here and will have a very tough time replacing those four.

That's not to say that the departed players were great- they weren't. The 'Bulls allowed 7.1% sacks (7.1% of passing plays ended in sacks), which is horrible. They were a lot better than the current crop and at least had some chemistry, however, something this new group will not have in 2009.

Worse yet, the Bulls were counting on help from the JUCO ranks and at least one big player simply won't be in Tampa this year. They expected JUCO transfer (and former 'Nole) Daron Rose to come in and start at one of the tackle spots. Rose didn't qualify, however, and will not be playing for the Bulls. Additionally, JUCO Tackle Carlos Savala is also ineligible. The Bulls really needed one of them to come in and take over a tackle position.

This off-season has been a disaster for the offensive line, and Head Coach Leavit said that none of the players were good enough to play on his OLine.

One position is definitely set. Junior right guard Zach Hermann is 6'3" 304lbs and made 13 starts as a freshman and 6 last year before injury struck. Herman is a pure run blocker and is the typical tough guard.

At the other guard spot might be 6' 4", 292-pound sophomore Chaz Hine. He didn't play much last year, but is a blue collar guy who could earn the job despite not being very talented.

The center position will hinge on a number of factors. At 6' 5" and 285lbs junior center Jacob Sims has the ability to play a lot of positions. The bulls are also considering him at tackle, but make no mistake, they want him at center. He'll play tackle if the potential tackles struggle. He had off-season finger surgery, but is expected to start somewhere on the line this year, either at Right Tackle, Left Guard, or Center.

At center, there's an experiment going on with former defensive tackle Sampson Genus who is one of the strongest players on the roster. He has looked good according to some reports. If Genus doesn't work out at center (and he's the better athlete but needs a lot of work), the Bulls will turn to 6' 2" 304lb Soph Kevin McCaskill. He's almost running even with Genus and was part of the big class the Bulls brought in after 2007.

The other tackle spot a complete mystery. One possibility is RsFr Jatavious Jackson, a decent recruit at 6' 4" 270lbs. He's very green and undersized at this point. RsFr OT Mark Popek is 6'7" 305 and got a lot of work in spring with Sims out due to injury (remember that the coaches want Sims at center but will move him back to tackle if need be). He's talented but young and inconsistent. He could challenge Sims for one of the tackle spots and USF hopes he wins so that Sims can play center. Pushing Jackson at left tackle is 6' 4" 314lb Soph Jeremiah Warren, who is already struggling in the classroom but does have a good bit of talent.

And don't count out Jamar Bass who is apparently looking reall good for the Bulls (at Left tackle).

The bottom line here is that the Bulls offensive line is very unsettled and even when it does settle, it will not be very talented. None of the bulls linemen are getting any press for an All-Conference selection. This group is definitely set up to run block, which is good considering that the Bulls run more than 60% of the time, but they will likely struggle in pass protection.Right now, their projected depth chart is this

Current projected lineup

LT Jeremiah Warren
LG Chaz Hine
C Sampson Genus
RG Zach Hermann
RT: Jake Sims

Warren is a sophomore who had 3 career starts (all this year). He is starting because Bass is inconsistent. Hine is also a sophomore with only these 3 games as experience. Genus is the strongest player on the roster and could present some trouble. He's a beast:

Genus is huge at "314" lbs (he is at least 320). But skinny ankles, no? He's also inexperienced. Right Guard Hermann is a decent player but a cheap shot artist. Sims is nothing special.

Because USF's offensive line isn't very good (being honest here, they didn't impress me, though FSU's beat up defensive line could make them look solid), USF does some things to limit their exposure. one of those is the quick game.

A few notes here. First, they ran this from two-tight singleback, which they don't often run. They've run this play 7 or 8 times from what I've seen. Opportunity here for the Noles to get a pick-6, but they must balance that with the obvious counter to this, which would be a double move.

These guys don't work well as a team in the run game. There will be gaps where FSU can get penetration and stop the run for loss. That's important because FSU wants to make USF one-dimensional.

They've given up 3 sacks in 77 pass plays (3.9%), against by far the worst competition in the country. FSU, in comparison, against good competition, has given up 4 sacks in 108 pass plays (3.6%). This USF line is average at best. To attack the passing game FSU needs to play coverage, and not rush Daniels aggressively. The ends must not lose contain or attempt dumb spin moves. Just a light, straight rush, like Bama did to Tyrod Taylor. Once they lull Daniels into a sense of false confidence in the pocket, they must attack him via the DELAYED blitz. Delayed is the key. USF's offensive linemen will look to help each other out with the initial rushers, and there should be gaps open for Dekoda Watson to run though, as he did last season against Miami. With contain established, and a free rusher coming in untouched, USF could have some trouble, particularly if their back doesn't pick up the blitz well. What FSU can't do is telegraph the blitz, like they usually do with little success. Make this kid sit in the pocket and read a defense, finding his wideouts in traffic. He can't have that good of a relationship with them yet.

Bottom Line

Last summer, I wrote:

USF's offense will probably struggle this year, particularly against good teams as they did last season. There is a lot of optimism at the quarterback and skill positions, but I wonder if prognosticators are making the common media error of overlooking line play. If the Bulls are to have a top 50 offense, they must be able to establish the run. Despite the new coordinator's background being more pass-happy than USF has seen in recent years, he must stick to the run and play low-risk football, catering to the defense which should be this team's strength. The Bulls have talked about making more big plays this year, but big plays typically happen because a team is vastly superior to their opponent, or because the defense is cheating to stop something (like the run) and are burned by something else (play action pass). If USF can't consistently put itself in better situations this year, like 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 8, Grothe will be the same old Grothe- taking too many risks and forcing too many passes. If the offensive line gets it together, the Bulls could have a pretty decent offense as the skill position players are there, but that is a huge if. This is still a team that couldn't get to 350 yards per game in the lousy Big East. Expect a regression from South Florida's offense and a more conservative gameplan as the season rolls along.

Now add in "they have a very talented but completely inexperienced quarterback." Despite the fact that USF has been prepping for this game forever, their offense will stay pretty simple. Still, FSU has a way of making rookie quarterbacks look like heisman trophy favorites. Additionally, I worry because USF has some guys from that Norm Chow NC State team that gave Mickey and FSU fits. Yes, that was the game in which FSU made Daniel Evans look great, to say nothing of Phillip RIvers.

I predict USF to score 27 points.

The Conversation: Talking USF @ Florida State with TheBullsPen.com

FSUncensored — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:28:37 -0000

This week's guest is TheBullsPen.com. It's a forum, and we've never had a Q&A with a forum before. After reaching out to some USF beat writers, and getting no response, we turned to these guys. Their response was very good. If you're a USF fan finding this on google, you need to get to TheBullsPen.com ans sign up. It's a nice community and they are pretty serious about their football.

Waylon Jennings & Hank Williams Jr - The Conversation (via Slasheri)

There's a story behind the clip. People said we needed to use more youtube clips. I happen to like Waylon and when you type "the conversation" into youtube, this is what you get.

First up, USF's questions to us:

With FSU's revent struggles with mobile QBs how do you think they will deal with USF's type of spread where an athletic QB and his ability to hurt you running or passing is the centerpiece?

I don't think this FSU defense is any good. It's easily the worst in my lifetime (born '85). They rely on a lot of young kids, who mix great plays with boneheaded decisions. There are some encouraging signs, however. First, FSU has an excellent gun-run game, so the defense has now had an entire spring and fall camp to see this look. Second, the defensive interior is bigger, which should help. Third, FSU now has three legit linebackers, as compared to last season which saw FSU scramble and convert two safeties to the linebacker position to make up for some early entries to the NFL and some injuries.

If there is one unit on offense or defense that FSU must contain to beat USF , which would it be? What do you feel will FSU's biggest advantage will be on Saturday, biggest weakness? What are your 3 keys to victory, for both teams?

I'll try to profile this in Friday's preview (it's worth the wait, trust me), but FSU obviously can't just allow any unit to run wild. I'll say the contain game. USF RsFr. QB B.J. Daniels has a big arm, but he can be erratic and lacks touch, so FSU has to make him sit in the pocket and not allow him to scramble around.

FSU's biggest advantage, outside of home field, should be their offensive line. Staying in good down and distance will be key. I also think FSU has an advantage with their 3rd and 4th wideout against USF's 3rd and 4th corner. If USF is going to win this game, they must run the ball very well to get FSU into some more favorable coverages. To that end, USF's offensive line has to play well.

I'll discuss this more in-depth Friday, but USF must establish the run, find play calling balance (not try to do too much or too little as to be predictable), and must sell-out against the run. FSU just needs to run the ball, not try to do too much on offense, and not allow big special teams plays.

How do you stop George Selvie?

Selvie is a good pass rusher. FSU will block him with Sophomore Andrew Datko. Datko was a freshman All-American a season ago and has picked up where he left off. Over summer, I profiled the insane slate he'd face this season. Selvie had a great Sophomore year, but was a disappointment last season, probably because he was injured. Datko has excellent technique and I am not overly worried about this matchup because Selvie doesn't have much of a bull-rush move. Datko can handle a guy who tries to get around the corner every time. He's 6'6" 291, so occasionally he will struggle against an elite defensive end who has a strong bull-rush move to compliment the outside stuff. I also expect FSU to run right at Selvie, because he does not like to play the run from what I have seen.

For more of our responses, to answer a few of their questions, and to see TheBullsPen's excellent answers, continue reading!

I can't think of a more baffling team in the country right now than yours. They've yo-yoed up and down the first three weeks, and I don't think anyone expected them to torch BYU the way they did after their near-death experience with Jacksonville State. Which game that you've played so far, if any, represents the true 2009 Seminoles?

I recently told Andy Staples of SI: you can choose to judge their two games against ranked D1 competition, or you can choose to look at a game they played against Jax State under circumstances that many teams will face this season, just not as extreme as the Noles faced.

After three games, FSU is 118th against the pass in I-A - only UAB and Washington State have given up more yards. Is that an illusion, or are there issues in the back seven that haven't been addressed?

The issues in my mind are along the defensive line, which has played poorly. Considering what has been asked of them, I think the secondary has played okay. FSU has asked its guys to play straight man coverage for 5 or 6 seconds, and nobody can do that (though Patrick Robinson has played very well and pretty much locked down his side, as the top corner in the nation should do.) But you also have to consider who they played. MIami's dynamic offense, BYU's very impressive attack (which by the way, FSU did hold to only 21 points before the Noles pulled their starters). They also faced the top QB recruit in the country and the MVP of the SEC championship game in Ryan Perriloux for Jax State. There's not another team that has faced similar competition to date. There are issues, but that ranking isn't indicative of FSU's performance, because it doesn't adjust for competition level.

- I'm not going to lie, if USF were ever to replace one of the "Big 3" in Florida, many Bulls fans think FSU would be the one getting replaced. With Mickey Andrews saying he wants to retire at the end of the season, and Bowden looking more like a coach emeritus every year, how concerned are you about the long-term health of the program? How much faith does the average FSU fan have in Jimbo Fisher when Bobby finally retires?

I was very concerned in 2004-2007, but FSU has a stadium,, tradition, and now has a plan. They have to deal with one more year of this Bowden nonsense, but I don't think people realize all that goes in to making a program, particularly the booster base, stadium, recruiting, a conference, etc. I think USF has a shot to be the .5 in the Fla 3.5 Everyone inside the program and most knowledgeable outsiders will tell you that losing Andrews and Bowden represents an immeasurable upgrade. Jimbo Fisher saved Florida State at a time when most didn't realize how bad the program was internally, with a lot of behind the scenes stuff that I don't have enough space to describe. The improvements he's made, particularly in recruiting and organization structure, and the improvements he will make in this and next off-season will lay the groundwork for sustained play at the highest level. I understand that many don't think Miami would be replaced, but they don't have a stadium and rumor has it that their booster contributions are way, way down.

It seems like the light bulb clicked on inside Christian Ponder's head this offseason. What improvements has he made from last year to this year that have made him so effective?

I'm going to brag a bit here. Tomahawk Nation was probably the only site not to get on the "Ponder Sux11!!11!1" bangwagon a season ago. Now, we do have some coaches (not FSU's coaches, haha) who write for us, so that helps. We identified the problem of a year ago: the youngest offensive line in America (3 true freshmen, two sophomores), which while good at run blocking, was poor in pass protection. FSU had to scheme around their offensive line, and Fisher rightfully won the ACC offensive coordinator of the year award for delivering the top offense in the conference despite the line. In the off-season, we broke it down and wondered whether the offensive line would take that next leap. We said that they likely would. So far so good, as FSU has the best offensive line in the ACC and one of the best in the nation. Ponder looks like a completely new quarterback, the best FSU has had in a decade, and he'll be running the 2nd best offense USF has ever faced (the Oregon team in the Sun Bowl a few years ago was very special).

Are you more or less confident in slowing down USF's offense with B.J. Daniels under center than you would have been if Grothe were playing? Why?

Tough question. Over the summer, I wrote:

Matt Grothe has led the Bulls in rushing in each of the past three seasons. He's also a big risk taker who often struggles to read defenses, possibly because of his 5'11" stature. He's tossed up 42 picks over three years, while throwing 47 TD's. He's been consistent in his erratic nature, throwing 14 INT's each year. More troubling, however, for Bulls fans was the way he ended the Big East season: Against Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, UConn, and WVU, Grothe threw 11 Interceptions and just three touchdowns, while being sacked 13 times.

There's more:

Matt Grothe Games QB Rating Yards/ Attempt TD INT

All Games 13 136 7.7 18 14

v. Conference 7 119 7.1 7 12

v. Non-Conference 6 156 8.4 11 2

v. Winning 6 109 6.5 4 10

v. Non-Winning 7 162 8.8 14 4

4 TD 10 INT against Bowl teams? That's not impressive, and really, none of Grothe's passing numbers stand out. He is a dangerous runner, of course. And FSU has been ripped by teams utilizing the mobile quarterback over the past two seasons, particularly out of the shotgun, as USF does. In fact, Grothe had 117 rushes for 828 yards, which is 7.1 yards per carry. Simply put, Grothe is a playmaker with his legs. He runs the zone read play quite well and making him one-dimensional is a primary goal for any team facing USF.

If he stays healthy, Grothe will surpass Pat White for the conference record in Total Offense, but I have to wonder how much of that record is due solely to playing time? Almost any 4-year starter with mobility would have a shot at the record.

I didn't mean to jinx him, USF fans, honest. I'll split on this. If FSU shreds USF's defense like they did to Miami and BYU, then USF would be better off having Grothe, because I think he is less likely to have a completely embarrassing and career/program scaring meltdown than B.J. Daniels.

But if USF starts to volley with FSU, then I think USF fans should prefer Daniels, a kid with better physical tools, probably just making plays, and gaining confidence as the game goes on.

Many of us are also Bucs fans, and we'd like to thank you all for Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn, among others. Which current Noles do you think we'll all get to know on Sundays in the future? Offensive Tackles Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders will play in the league, as will Guard Rodney Hudson. Wide receivers Richard Goodman and Jarmon Fortson will get paid. On defense you'll see DT Jacobbi McDaniel, LB's Dekoda Watson and Nigel Bradham, and definitely CB Patrick Robinson (considered by many to be the top CB in the country).

Finally, here's a few our fans can answer:

- This may be the best-attended road game by USF fans that we've ever had - right up there with the time we took over FAU's little sandbox of a stadium. Any suggestions on what to do (and what not to do) in the parking lots and at the stadium? Maybe some things we wouldn't think of. We all know bad things would happen if someone tried to stop Renegade and Chief Osceola. Does it bother you that Gene Deckerhoff went to UF?

What are your feelings on playing against USF for the first time? What 5 places should USF fans make sure to visit while in Tally?

Now, Tomahawk Nation's questions to USF

In your honest opinion how much of a drop off or rise in play do you see with the redshirt freshman quarterback leading the offense? How much of the offense can he handle? How will this impact playcalling?

Jamie: I hate to say "I don't know" but... I don't know. We can go off of what we've seen in the two games Daniels has played in extensively so far (which were both against I-AA schools) and what everyone within the program says about him. He's faster than Grothe, he has a stronger arm, and everyone says he has the same competitive streak in him - which makes sense, since he played basketball last year in the toughest conference in America. But until you really throw him in the water and see if he can swim or not, you never know for sure. Even if the Bulls lose the game, it will be very encouraging if Daniels still plays well. Grothe won his first-ever road game at UCF, and nearly won his second one at Kansas (the year before they really took off - I was at that game and can still see the winning touchdown pass skimming off Ean Randolph's hands... what a bummer). It only took that long for us to figure out that he had something.

Mike Canales (our offensive coordinator) says they're not going to limit Daniels. I think we're interested in knowing whether Canales has limited himself in the first three games because he didn't want to give FSU a roadmap to stopping the offense. It seems like the offense has been opening up a bit since the Wofford game, but we have no idea how much of the playbook is available at this point.

Jim: While the style hasn't changed much, the offense was new this year even for Grothe. Daniels probably had more reps in the spring and camp cycles to protect Grothe from injuries. (Grothe hurt his hip pointer in Aug 08, so there was some concern). Coach Canales also said that preparation this week would not change.

Daniels is a taller, faster, stronger version of Matt Grothe. He doesn't have Matt's experience, and has not shown the same personality (back up QB's don't usually show the "moxie" when they are in the game for mop-up duty).

The real issue will be how quickly Daniels can adjust to the FSU speed. Sure, he sees a fast defense every day in practice - but practice speed isn't game speed. If he can adjust quickly, we'll be fine.

Data: Really, I don't know. In terms of pure physical talent, Daniels is better. He seems to be very calm and confident in the pocket. Overall, I'd say our big play ability is a little higher. Daniels can just make throws that Grothe wouldn't be able to. We'll have to see whether Daniels is nervous, or just makes mistakes seeing the field against the speed of FSU. I have a feeling the overall dropoff won't be much, but we won't know until Saturday.

Dan: I can't say I truly expect an actual rise yet, because we just don't know, and it's a hell of a game to have your first start in, but I don't expect alot of dropoff. I think BJ Daniels' skillset will help make up for a little bit of the dropoff, if there is any. And the team will be rallying around him and playing their hearts out for Grothe. I think he can handle the whole offense. Playcalling won't be much different, but I still think there are things that both QBs practiced that will be new to everyone, including us.

If you had to point to a place on the timeline of FSU football, where would USF be today?

Jamie: We're probably you guys around 1982. We've come a long way and there are a few skins on the wall, but people are wondering if we're legit or not. You guys won at Ohio State two straight years - we beat West Virginia two straight years when they were in the top 10. We're hoping that we're in a bit of a leveling off period while we wait for the next step up to true elite status.

Jim: It's a bit different. USF is in a conference, and a BCS conference at that. FSU for most of the rise to power was independent - which means USF can't follow the same path. However, I would put USF at about the 1980 FSU timeline.

Data: You'd have to help me out with the years. I would say we are somewhere around the Casey Weldon early years, or maybe a year or two before Weldon took over. The team is at the point where ending the season in the Top 25 should be a reasonable goal.

Does USF have the confidence/talent to play tight man coverage against our secondary, thus taking away the bubble screen? Also, do you think Daniels will be able to stretch our D by consistently hitting the intermediate routes? What kind of designed runs do you anticipate against FSU?

Jim: Joe Tresey is a good DC, and will likely mix up the coverage -- switching from man to zone. USF played mostly a soft zone (like a cover-2 or cover-3) during the first three games. However, the CBs have the speed to keep up with the WR's... and safety Nate Allen is a ball hawk (and potential 2nd-rounder).

Daniels has an accurate and strong arm. If Bogan, Love, Mitchell, and the rest of our WRs can get behind the FSU secondary - then Daniels can hit them.

USF runs a modified spread-option, where the QB decides at the last minute to hand off or run based on the crashing DE (this is the zone-read). USF also has specific plays with a QB run (not just QB draws). Those are probably the most unique running plays. USF has more traditional counter, off-tackle, sweep and up-the-gut runs. I would also expect an end-around or even a reverse.

Data: I'm confused by the first question. If the question is - Do we have the confidence to man against your WRs? Probably. But we have new Defensive D-Coordinators. In past years we definitely would have left our DBacks on an island and put lots of pressure on the backs. We have one NFL quality CB in Jerome Murphy, and some young guys on the other side that seem to be very good but haven't proven it on the field (Q Washington, George Baker, Kayvon Webster). Currently, when we go with a nickel package we'll see two of the three young corners instead of another safety.

Daniels has shown the ability to hit guys in stride 40 yards down the field. From a passing perspective, I expect you'll see us run the same kind of deep passing game that Miami had success with. But we'll also run a lot more 4 and 5 wides, and try spread the field to hit the 10-15 yard pass. We'll run at least 8 different receivers through the game, probably more like 10. The running game hasn't settled on a running back. I think you'll see steady but solid Mo Plancher run your basic off tackle stuff, powerful and speedy Mike Ford pound it up the middle, and lightning quick Lindsey Lamar try to run outside and catch some screen passes. Most of our running is out of the spread, but in short yardage we'll bring in two or three TEs.

Dan: Unsure about the man coverage. Our receivers are pretty big and athletic, and they play as well as they can. Daniels has smarts and I noticed he knows how to take some heat off the ball to fit the ball in the short routes, and still knows how to bomb it with surprisingly great accuracy. Not sure what Canales has up his sleeve for runs, but we are getting more and more stable at RB so I'm sure there will be some interesting things to see.

This weekend, how will your fanbase adapt to a stadium that does not serve alcohol?

Jamie Have you ever been to a game in Tampa and seen the beer prices? Our stadium basically doesn't serve alcohol either. The hardest part for the drinkers is going to be the noon kickoff. The default kickoff time at our home games is 7:00pm, and there's always a lot of kvetching when a game is moved to 12:00pm for the Big East Game of the Week slot because there's just not enough time to get a good buzz on in the parking lot.

Jim: The same way yours does. Drinking in the lot and sneaking some in.

Dan: I could be mistaken but I don't think UCF's stadium served alcohol either (even though it's a wet campus). It'll be just fine, just means people will remember more of the game, and your city will make alot more money off booze sales on Fri night and Sat morning.

Is it possible for the Bulls to have a moral victory? If USF is able to compete with Florida State and keep the game close, can it be considered a step forward for the program?

Jamie: No. Moral victories are for UCF.

Jim: Moral victories are for UCiF. (Named because "if this" or "if that" they would win...) If USF keeps it close and loses, that is a loss. Many fans not only think we can win, but almost expect it. Much like FSU fans thought about Miami on opening weekend.

Data: I don't think there would be terrible disappointment with a close loss. But only a victory would be considered a step forward. This team has already won bigger road games in the recent past against (at Auburn, at West Virginia when they were considered a NC contender). From a recruiting perspective a win over FSU would be huge. From a "We have arrived" perspective, I don't think a win at FSU would top Auburn unless FSU was undeafeated late in the year.

Dan: A moral victory would be winning on a FG or by less than 6 points. A real 'we-have-arrived' victory will be a double digit 'in-your-face' beating.

From a fan's perspective and the program's perspective, which game is more important to the Bulls, FSU or UM?

Jamie: For the fans, I think we're happy if we win one out of the two games this year, just to have that first "Big 3" win under our belt. But for the program, I think this one is more important. This goes back to the question I suggested about how many Bulls fans think FSU is most vulnerable to falling out of the "Big 3" in Florida. Miami is always going to get talent from their own back yard. Florida has national recruiting cachet and can get almost anyone they want. And USF is doing an increasingly good job retaining the talent in Tampa Bay. If the state can't support four BCS conference teams at a high level (note: we don't know this for sure yet) and one school has to take another's place, then FSU seems like the one USF would replace if they could get there. Part of that replacement process includes beating them on the field.

Jim: FSU is more important because we have four more games against UM and only one against FSU. And this is our only scheduled visit to Doak.

Data: About the same. If we go 1-1, I think we'll be happy. The two teams seem very close in talent, and we get UM at home. So I guess that would make the Miami game slightly more important. But a win over FSU would mean the Miami game is less important. If that makes sense.

Dan: They're about 50/50. UM is more important to win, because they beat us last time, and we should win at home. It's too early to know if FSU will be great this year with the rest of their schedule, and we'll know when we face UM how good they truly are. Winning at either will surely help in some way or another.

Vegas is giving USF about a 13% chance of winning this contest. What percent chance do you give yourselves winning this game?

Jamie: Before Grothe got hurt I would have said around 40%. Now I'm down around 25%. But that's about the chance I gave USF to win at Auburn, and we know how that worked out.

Jim: 50-50. Honestly.

Data: My head is telling me about 25% after the Grothe injury. But Daniels is sending out really good vibes. I know BYU is supposed to be good, but they turned the ball over a lot and our speed on defense is a lot better than theirs. My gut is telling me this team is better than the last two years, and has a greater sense of purpose. I'll go 60%.

Dan: With Grothe, I think we had a 50/50 shot at winning. With BJ, I think it may be 40-45%. Know this. This team is ready. We still have a great defense and we have a solid O-line, and our QB isn't a scrub. And we seem to have a legit kicker (you guys know ALL about that wide-right stuff ) Expect everything from us, it's only Wednesday and I bet the team is already on fire tired of hearing all the weak arguments and cheap shots being taken at them because they lost one guy.

A big thanks to TheBullsPen.com

Florida State's Undercover Youth Movement

FSUncensored — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:23:00 -0000

When Jimbo Fisher arrived at Florida State in 2007 to be Florida State's offensive coordinator and head coach in waiting, he noted that FSU had few, if any, players who could play at Fisher's old school, LSU. It wasn't that Florida State hadn't been bringing in quality talent. Their 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes were decently rated, but the coaches Fisher would replace were beyond lazy in their player evaluations and the practical effect was that FSU continually managed to pick the overrated of the most highly rated, or the attitude problem children that other programs shied away from. So Fisher and his newly hired offensive assistants hit the recruiting trail. Hard. Their work ethic put pressure on some of the coaches who were still around from the pre-Fisher days. They didn't want to get shown up, so they worked a bit harder. Florida State reeled in a top 10 class. Last season after the Noles had the top offense in the ACC, the ACC's offensive coordinator of the year reeled in another top 10 class. The key though, was to make sure those players qualified (avoiding the bad apples), and to get players that fit a specific vision instead of just grabbing highly ranked players without regard to fit.

The plan seems to be working, but you wouldn't know it from watching television. While everyone in the media seems to want to talk about the youth movement happening at Miami, Florida State has just as many starters from their rebuilding classes of 2008 and 2009. The Canes have 8 starters who are either freshmen or sophomores, and the Noles have 8 as well. Both teams have a number of freshmen or sophomores who contribute as well. And not just when the outcome of the game is no longer in doubt. The Noles are counting on young players on offense, defense, and special teams to make big plays in clutch moments.

The most obvious of these on defense is Sophomore linebacker Nigel Bradham (shown above). A physical freak, Bradham was the #1 rated outside linebacker in the 2008 recruiting class. After shining on special teams as a freshman, Bradham has exploded this year. Outside of Senior cornerback Patrick Robinson, Bradham is the Seminole's best defensive player. Not only is he FSU's biggest and strongest linebacker, but Bradham has been exceptional in coverage as well. Against Miami Bradham was the Nole's most consistent run stopper, but he also covered the Cane's kick returner and running back Greg Cooper, staying with him step for step on many plays. In Florida State's 54-28 obliteration of #7 ranked BYU, Bradham did a great job of covering the underneath pick routes BYU was running. Despite the ref's reluctance to call some of BYU's more blatant pick routes, Bradham was able to re-route his man several times, forcing him just slightly off his intended path. Nigel had the Nole's only QB hurry against BYU, and at the end of the game he also tallied an interception to erase any doubts of of a comeback in even the most hopeful of Cougar fans.

While Bradham was impressive, the Nole's defense is getting big plays from it's smallest player. 5'9" 165lb freshman cornerback Greg Reid is fast becoming a household name, not only for Seminoles fans, but for college football fans across the country. Against Miami, Reid came on a corner blitz and hit Miami quarterback Jacory Harris as he threw, forcing the ball to pop up into the air and into the arms of Junior Markus White (a JUCO transfer from the 2008 class), who returned it for a touchdown. He also stepped in front of another Harris pass for an interception along the sideline in the second quarter. Reid's electric kickoff returns made Miami change their kickoff strategy. When the Canes began kicking the ball short, Reid took it upon himself to change spots with another player right before the kickoff. Without realizing, Miami kicked short and right into the arms of the freshman they were trying to avoid and Reid had another electric return. But it was Reid's play against BYU that launched him into the national spotlight. Late in the second quarter, BYU began to find their tight ends. Concerned about this, to open the 3rd quarter FSU's coaches put the 5'9" 165lb Reid on the 6'6" 260lb Andrew George, figuring that he was quick enough to pester and stick with him underneath. They would deal witht he size disadvantage if BYU adjusted. On BYU's opening drive of the 2nd half, the Cougars opened up by running the ball at the Nole's undersized front. They targed Pitta and the pass was incomplete as FSU was flagged for pass interference. Then Reid took George who had split out in the slot.. On 2nd and 11, it happened:

Reid jammed the much larger Groege, who then threw a forearm to try to get away. Reid grabbed to stay with the tight end and just undercut the route. There was offensive pass interference on the push and defensive pass interference on the pull and the refs let them play. A few seconds later the Noles were up 37-14 and the Cougars quit. FSU forced 5 turnovers against BYU. 4 by underclassmen, and 3 of those were from freshmen.

But it's not just the Nole's youth on defense that has people excited.

The Noles start 5 sophomores on offense. In fact, the Seminole offense is younger than the defense. There are only two senior starters touching the ball in Tallahassee. FSU had the best offense in the ACC last year, and this year they are even better. Against two ranked opponents (Miami and BYU), the Noiles are averaging over 450 yards and 44 points per game. The Nole's dismantling of BYU was one of the best in Seminole history. 2 Seniors, 5 Juniors, and 5 Sophomore starters.

It starts up front. Last season, the FSU offensive line was the youngest in the country, starting 3 true freshmen and two sophomores. Fisher had to gameplan around them, and that he still had the top offense in the ACC with the youngest offensive line in the country may be Fisher's finest coaching job (including the National Championship with LSU). This year, the FSU offensive line is the strength of the team. They are talented and cohesive. In their two games against 1A competition, they have allowed Ponder to be sacked only twice in sixty seven pass plays. That's a sack rate of less than 3% and rates as one of the best in the country. FSU rushed for more than 100 yards against Miami and the Seminoles considered that a "down" game. But Miami was loading up against the run and FSU carved them up with the pass. Against BYU, the cougars were scared to put too many players up against the run, for fear of FSU's athletes beating their defensive backs, and the Seminole offensive line had a field day. They did not allow a tackle for loss. They did not allow a sack. The Noles rushed for 313 yards. It was a truly dominant effort. How dominant? BYU's two leading tacklers were their cornerbacks. FSU's young offensive line would not allow the Cougar linebacker to make tackles. The announcers referred to them as "Velcro", because their blocks just stuck.

It's not just the young big uglies who are carrying the team, however. FSU's youngsters are contributing at the skill positions as well. Florida State scored 7 touchdowns Saturday. 5 came from underclassmen (2 from sophomores and 3 from freshmen). Sophomore running back Carlton Ty Jones leads the team in rushing. Jones consistently hits the right hole and does it with power. Sophomore Jermaine Thomas, and freshmen Lonnie Pryor and Chris Thompson also get in on the act. Against BYU, they accounted for 186 yards on 26 rushes. The Noles receiving corps is also littered with underclassmen. Sophomores Jarmon Fortson, Bert Reid, and Taiwan Easterling are all leaned on heavily. Fortson is the most talented of the group at 6'3" 228' with good speed and amazing athleticism. Fortson has 11 grabs for 148 yards this season. Of the Nole's 271 yards passing per game, 130 go to underclassmen.

But the most impressive play of the day in my eyes probably went unnoticed by most. Leading 20-14 and having just given up a touchdown drive to BYU, FSU faced 3rd and goal at the Cougar 5. The Noles got in the shotgun, with 3 wide receivers, a tight end, and a running back. That back was true freshman Lonnie Pryor, who would score two touchdowns on the day. When I saw the formation, I figured that FSU was running a draw. Surely they would ask a true freshman running back to pick up the blitz from a 3-4 defense. Right? BYU brought the blitz, an overload to Pryor's side. The play was a pass. If FSU was to score, Pryor would need to block the blitzing outside linebacker, who outweighed him by 30lbs. The blitzer never got within three yards of quarterback Christian Ponder, as Pryor set, drove his hips, and stoned the 'backer, then drove him past the pocket. Ponder made his reads and then, with excellent protection, found tight end Caz Piurowski for the 27-14 lead, right before half. Fisher trusted a freshman running back to pick up arguably the most important block of the game. Credit FSU running backs coach Dexter Carter for schooling Pryor and having him ready to play. When you play freshmen in important roles and give them the skills to succeed, their confidence skyrockets.

Florida State has just 12 scholarship seniors (15 if you count walk-ons who earned their scholarship at the completion of fall camp). There are only 11 scholarship Juniors. Where FSU failed to bring in the right players in 2006 and 2007, those who stuck around are a nice compliment to the excellence that is Fisher's first two recruiting classes (2008 and 2009). The Noles have 27 sophomores and 25 sophomores. 70% of the scholarship players are underclassmen.

The Noles will return 16 starters in 2009, and lose few important reserves. While they may encounter some growing pains this year, that experience could help the Noles reach special heights next season.

Florida State Seminoles at BYU Cougars Preview

FSUncensored — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:24:03 -0000

And so the Seminoles take to the road for the first time this season. Can Florida State take down Brigham Young in Lavell Edwards Stadium? Let's break it down.

Viewing Information: 7PM Eastern. Available on the Versus network. Comcast customers have it, Dish Network customers have it, Direct TV customers do not.
Weather Info: our resident meteorology buffs break it down. The weather looks great!

UPDATE: well we did it. We wrote the article that broke SBNation. It was so epic that the system couldn't handle it and like a shooting star, we couldn't get it back. So there will be no super in-depth breakdown of the Cougar defense and the FSU offense. I don't have time to re-write it. But I will give you a recap

Spread BYU out and run. They aren't big or fast, FSU should be able to run the ball on this defense if they spread them out and make BYU account for the bubble screens via alignment. Oklahoma ran on BYU and they were dumb for not making BYU play honest. FSU needs to keep them honest via the bubble. Stay committed to the run game. I really believe that BYU's defense is not as good as they have shown. Remember the article. BYU can't handle mobile QB's.
Simplify Coverages via the run game and the constraint plays (bubbles, draws, etc). BYU in predictable coverages is much easier to beat than a BYU that can run anything it wants. Make BYU blitz from a greater distance by spreading them. BYU can't handle mobile QB's. if BYU aligns like that, FSU will simply throw Bubble Screens like they did all last year for 10+ yards over and over and over again.
Stay patient. I don't think BYU will blitz much early. Take what they give you while dictating alignment via formation. Force BYU to take risks- both play and formation. When they make their adjustments to FSU's run game, beat them with the play-action pass.
Stay in good down and distance. BYU is not a team that handles play-action well and they can definitely be beat by play-action off of a good running game. Force them to make difficult alginment decisions.
Attack vulnerable players in coverage. Bouman and Hooks (2 middle linebackers) are bad in coverage, and without their staring free safety, BYU will be playing a 215lb and a 206lb safety, both of whom are slow.
Long snap counts. If BYU is going to shift pre-snap, make them show it and then sit in it.
Honestly, the 2nd part of this preview was epic. It had videos and pictures and diagrams and I am really frustrated. Enjoy the look at their offense.
Prediction: FSU rushed for 220 yards and throws for 240 yards, while controlling down and distance reasonably well. Ponder runs the ball a lot more than he has shown this year. FSU scores 31 points to BYU's 28. Player of the game: Offense- Christian Ponder. Defense: Kevin McNiel. See inside for the other author's predictions!

Florida State's Defense against BYU's Offense

They run a power spread attack. What does that mean? Basically, offensive coordinator Robert Anae uses the personnel he has to make his offense, and he just so happens to have a very big running back, a likely NFL tight end, and a talented fullback. The 'Noles will face a shotgun offense featuring multiple non-wide receiver skill position players. Their linemen look to have 28 inch splits (rough guess). For reference, FSU's offensive linemen will use 18" splits this year and used 12 inch splits last year.

Notice how big the splits are. This makes it exceptionally hard for opposing defensive ends to get to the quarterback. In an interesting twist, FSU's defensive ends are horrible so far this season, so that may not matter as much.

Here is an article: BYU Offense and Protection Scheme. It is from Texas Tech, and their current offensive coordinator Anae authored a decent portion. Of particular note is the way they handle twists and stunts by the defensive line.

Here's another on their offense.

Because this year is only two games old, it's important to look at last year's performance and then adjust for the changes in personnel and playcalling. Last year, the Cougar's offense looked like this...

Category	Performance	Nat'l Rank
Total Offense	6.3 Yards/Play	18th
Scoring Offense	34.2 PPG	20th
Passing Offense	310 Passing Yards/ Game	6th
Rushing Offense	134 Rushing Yards/ Game	72nd

That summary makes BYU's offense look really good. But were they really that good, considering their competition level? Actually, they were pretty good. The advanced performance measures indicate that BYU was quite good on offense. Here's a look:

Category	Nat'l Rank
Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	19th
S&P+ (opponent adjusted measure of success and explosiveness)	6th
Rushing S&P+	23rd
Passing S&P+	8th

So the traditional measures say 18th or 20, and the smart measures say 19th or 6th. That's a very good offense. Not Texas Tech, UF, USC, or Penn State good, but comparable to the likes of Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Oregon. I use teams from different conferences to show the importance of adjusting for the quality of defenses faced.

So far in 2009, BYU's offense has had mixed returns. In their landmark win over Oklahoma, BYU averaged 5.0 yards per play against a very good Sooner defense. They managed to score 14 points, and had 4 turnovers. Clearly, that's not impressive, though they did enough to win the game. Against Tulane, they ran an astounding 79 plays, averaging 6.7 yards per snap, which is much better. I have my doubts about their offensive performance against Tulane, however, as they were only up 20-3 at half, and really poured it on when an undermanned Tulane team quit in the 4th quarter. I guess when you're in the MWC, you have to run the score up to get respect. Let's break down their personnel, then get into the game plan. But first...

A haiku:

Hulking Precision

Lacking in Explosion

Touchdown Anyway

Quarterback

Let's start at the QB position, where BYU has a star in Max Hall. He's 6'1" and 200lbs. He's the kind of kid who is a very good college quarterback, but who doesn't have much of a pro future due to his sort of average physical tools. He is however, very accurate and reads defenses very well. He was 1st team All-Mountain West in 2007 and 2nd team last season. Here is what he did in 2008:

Situation (2008)	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
All Games	13	477	330	69%	3957	8.3	35	14	157	37	304
vs. Winning	5	201	129	64%	1550	7.7	8	10	132	40	310
vs. Non-Winning	8	276	201	73%	2407	8.7	27	4	175	35	301
in Wins	10	348	257	74%	3150	9.1	34	6	179	35	315
in Losses (TCU, Utah, Arizona)	3	129	73	57%	807	6.3	1	8	99	43	269
vs. Ranked (AP)	2	83	43	52%	479	5.8	0	7	83	42	240
vs. Unranked (AP)	11	394	287	73%	3478	8.8	35	7	173	36	316

Those are some very impressive overall numbers. The TD-INT Ratio against ranked teams, and in BYU's 3 losses, however, is a huge red flag. Such a red flag that I decided to look closer.

Opponent	Defensive Efficiency (Lower Number is Better)	Nat'l Defensive Rank	BYU Points Scored
TCU	-0.437	8	7
Utah	-0.33	14	24
Florida State	-0.32	20	???
New Mexico	-0.163	38	21
Arizona	-0.126	42	21
UCLA	-0.091	52	59
Air Force	-0.032	59	38
Wyoming	0.071	70	44
Colorado State	0.205	87	45
Utah State	0.222	89	34
Washington	0.379	111	28
San Diego State	0.451	114	41
UNLV	0.516	115	42

TCU and Utah were the only two teams who had a defense similar to FSU's quality, and BYU managed 7 and 24 points, respectively. And BYU was a combined -9 in turnover margin in those two games. I think there is a speed issue. BYU simply cannot replicate FSU's speed in practice using their practice squad. Hall was a combined 43-83 in those two games. He did not throw a TD in either game.

Against Oklahoma this year, Hall went 26-38, for 328 yards, with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. He was also sacked 4 times. BYU managed 14 points. That's still a fine performance, despite the interceptions against a very good Oklahoma Defense.

It would seem that we have a case of beating up on bad opponents- and BYU certainly had a lot of those in their cupcake schedules over the years.

Hall is not a tall quarterback and as a result, he has to rely on throwing lanes (the spaces between his linemen) to see and throw. It's very important to get pressure on Hall because he is is not a runner. He is smart and accurate, however, and if the 'Noles don't get pressure in his face, he will complete some passes and hurt them.

Running Backs

BYU is more than set at the running back position. While BYU doesn't run often, they do run very efficiently, and their passing offense, like most passing attacks, is made much better if they can get the run game going.

At running back, Harvey Unga has had back to back 1,000 yard seasons, and last year went for 1132 on 240 carries (4.7). He also caught 42 balls for 309 yards (7.4). At 6'0" 240, he is a load and BYU will continue to pound him on the ground. He's a good runner but he definitely had a sophomore slump in terms of explosiveness. So far this year he has battled a hamstring injury, but is expected to play against Florida State. How much he can go is a question. His backup is JJ Di Luigi. He's a smaller, quicker kid and looked good against Tulane. Also be on the look out for Brian Kariya.

Fullback Manase Tonga. Tonga is 6'1" 240 and a load. He will pound the ball occasionally, but also blocks very well and catches the ball out of the backfield.

All of BYU's backs do the little things very well. They don't miss blitz pickup assignments. They catch the ball out of the backfield. They don't dance and they do get upfield quickly to gain yards.

Against Oklahoma, BYU rushed 29 times for 47 yards (running plays only, no sacks). That's an average of 1.6 yards per running play. They crushed Tulane for over 200 yards. Take from that what you will.

Receivers/ Tight Ends

BYU is still breaking in two new starting receivers, having to replace Austin Collie, who was far and away the Cougar's best weapon. He left early for the NFL and was BYU's go-to guy. Collie had an NCAA Best 106 catches for 1453 yards and 15 TD's! The Cougars had the 2nd best 3rd down conversion rate in the nation last year, and Collie caught a bunch of those. Also departed Michael Reed, who went 49-589-2. He was the Cougar's #2 receiver (though not their 2nd best receiving option, as you'll see below. So BYU had to replace an NFL wideout (which is pretty rare for BYU), and their #2 wideout.

Their number one weapon is Tight End Dennis Pitta, 6'5" 250lbs. The Senior is a legit NFL Tight End Prospect, consistently listed in the top-5 draft eligible tight end prospects, nationally. Pitta has both the athleticism and the production to back up his status. Last year he had 83 catches for 1083 yards and 6 touchdowns. This year he has improved his game, and caught 7 balls for 90 yards against Oklahoma. He is Hall's prime target, and all 'Nole fans know how much trouble the 'Noles have had covering the tight end (though they are often burned by afterthought tight ends, not necessarily high profile tight ends). Some great tight ends have killed the 'Noles, however, like UVA's Heath Miller and many from Miami. Pitta belongs in that group.

Here's a hilarious fake press-release on FSU's struggles with the tight end position, written by Ricobert11:

TIGHT ENDS MAKING DIFFERENCE IN PRACTICES
August xx, 200x

Coach (fill-in-the-blank) reminded reporters today of his intention to see the TE more involved in FSU offensive playcalling. "[So-and-so player] really impresses us with his athleticism. Believe you me, we will find a way to get that boy the ball."

FSU has looked to get more offensive output from their TEs in light of recent years lack of productivity. "I really just want to help the team out," said returning starter Tight Enderson. "We're really gonna surprise some folks this year. Teams will have to account for all skill players, not just our wide outs."

While FSU has had trouble finding the open TE, other teams have not. Miami TE Dozen Matta-Who scorched FSU's secondary for 9 catches and 173 yards in last year's rivalry game. The year prior, TE Enni-wun In-pads made a show case out of the game with a 15 catch / 227 yard / 4 TD performance, soliciting the first-ever mid-college season NFL free agent contract from the Oakland Raiders. In-pads would later, famously, go on to be the first player to ever sue against his own NFL Draft eligibility status, and win.

FSU has no excuse not to cover this tight end. He is BYU's biggest weapon by a long shot and should be identified on every play. FSU should really treat him as a wide receiver. He's been 1st Team All-Mountain West for 2 years running and should be 1st team All-America. An excellent route runner with glue hands, he will be a challenge for this Nole defense. Luckily, the 'Noles have Dekoda Watson, who has the ability to limit Pitta. If they use Watson to rush the passer, however, they will need to bracket Pitta with other players.

The Cougars also have tight end Andrew George (6'5" 250'), who went for 23 catches, 219 yds, and 6 TDs. In any case, George would start for most teams and is an excellent 2nd tight end option. Against the Sooners, he snagged 3 balls for 26 yards, including a TD off play-action. Watch for him on the goal line.

Trying to fill the void left by Collie is be McKay Jacobson. The 5' 11" 192lb Soph has good speed. As a freshman in 2006 (remember, these kids go on missions. He is 21 as a sophomore), he caught 28 balls for 547 yards and 3 TD's. Against Oklahoma he grabbed 4 balls for 69 yards. BYU has thrown him several middlle and jailbreak screens as well, so be on the lookout for that. I believe that FSU CB Patrick Robinson should be able to handle him one-on-one with very little trouble.

At the "X" receiver position, BYU has O'Neill Chambers. He's 6'2" 208, and one of their bigger targets at wideout. He has excellent hands. Some say he has big play potential, but I haven't seen that yet. The 3rd wide receiver spot right now, the "H", is between Junior Luke Ashworth, Matt Marshall, and Stephen Covey. There's a possibility that Stephen Kozlowski gets in there as well. Really though, BYU prefers to throw to their bevy of backs, tight ends, or the top two wideouts.

All of BYU's wideouts run excellent routes. Their offense features a lot of quick passing and it is built on precision. A lot of their routes are timing routes. BYU's wideouts are where they are supposed to be. They are on the same page with Max Hall. Hall throws the ball before they are open. Oh, and all of them can catch. It's absolutely paramount that FSU's corners play solid man coverage against the Cougars. BYU will eat up zone because they have a very good quarterback and mature (24 yearolds) receivers who understand where the holes are in a zone. Also, FSU plays horrible zone defense. They might not be the fastest, but they are good. I do think this group is missing a big-play threat in Collie.

Offensive Line

The Cougars lost 4 multi-year starters. Three of them were All-Conference as Seniors! The 4th made 28 career starts! In all, BYU loses 153 starts, an incredible number (probably the biggest loss in the nation).

Losing 4 starters means that one guy returns, and he happens to be the Coug's best lineman. Matt Reynolds is to BYU what Andrew Datko was to FSU- a Freshman All-America. BYU threw the ball 500 times last year and Reynolds (who is 21, with his mission and a redshirt), allowed only 1 sack. He's 6'6", 320, and a serious NFL prospect.

Right Tackle will be manned by Junior Nick Alletto, who is considered a good pass protector at 6'6" 318. The Junior busted up his knee this off-season, but looks to have held onto the job. He's also at least 23 years old. They think he is very good in pass protection.

At left guard is was to Jason Speredon, a Junior. He's a junior who has played in 21 games but apparently started none. Suffered from an ACL issue as a redshirt freshman. He's 6'5" 305 and my notes (I keep a little notebook on our opponents) say that coach Bronco Mendenhall had some good things to say about him at some point. He obviously lacks experience against decent competition, however, since he's only played in garbage time. But he is now done for the season with an injury, and was replaced by Braden Hansen, a 6'6" 282lb well touted redshirt freshman who is (surprise) coming off a mission. I don't have much info on him other than to say that he is not as good as the Freshman All-American Reynolds. He was average at best against Oklahoma, but guess what? He is now down with an injury! So he will be replaced by 6'3" 307lb sophomore Marco Thorson, who has never played in a game and is a clear step down from the guy they thought would be starting just 3 weeks ago.

At Right Guard, the Cougars have a promising one in Sophomore Terence Brown. 6'3" 351, he is athletic for his size, though obviously not athletic on an objective scale. BYU says he is smart and should be a three year starter. Like the others, he has little experience (1 start as a freshman, redshirted last year).

At Center, BYU will go with R.J. Willing, a 6'5" 305lb Senior. He started 9 games in 2004 (yes, 2004, so that makes him at least 23 years old, possibly more). He played in 11 games in 2007 and 5 games last year (mostly garbage time, no starts).

This is a decent pass blocking offensive line, I think, but Oklahoma sacked Hall 4 times on 42 passing plays. That's a sack every 10 or so dropbacks, which is terrible. Watching the 4 sacks, all occurred when Hall pulled the ball and tried to move out of the pocket, but encountered pressure from the middle of the line. He did do a nice job protecting the ball, and knew he would go down. 2 were on blitzes and 2 were not. They didn't do all that well with twists and stunts. Check out this picture:

Oklahoma had 8 men within 4yards of the line of scrimmage. This is similar to FSU's prowler. It was tough for BYU to figure out who would rush and who would drop. This play ended in a sack, even though BYU had 7 pass protectors and OU only rushed 5 men.

I have to wonder how BYU will fare with their 3rd left guard in as many weeks. These guys are huge, and do a good job run blocking within the context of BYU's scheme. They also run a lot of screens, but I think they tip them way too early and the new left guard won't help. If FSU was better coached on defense, I would have zero worries about the screen game. They aren't, however, and I'm sure Chuck Amato's crew will mess up. Still, these guys are not great downfield blockers because they are really fat and have no agility.

Attacking BYU

Everyone knows that FSU's Defensive Coordinator has been clueless against teams who spread the formation and then run with their quarterback. If you didn't know that, welcome to our site! Here is a convenient table. You may now throw up in your mouth:

2008		Total Off.			Rushing				Passing
Opponent	PPG	Plays	Yds	Per Play	No	Net	YPC	TFL's	Att	Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Dropbacks/ Sacks	QB Rating
Against Pro-Style	19	65	270	4.1	31	83	2.6	10	34	17	187	1.2	1.2	4.3	8.8	100
Against Teams utilizing the Mobile QB from a spread set	28	60	385	6.4	39	235	6.0	7	20	11	151	1.5	0.5	0.8	28	138

Here's the article with an explanation as to why this has happened.

In 2009, FSU allowed Miami's offense to put up 476 yards only 64 plays, over 7 yards per play. 25 first downs and 38 points. The star for the Hurricanes was quarterback Jacory Harris, who torched the 'Noles for a cartoonish 386 yards on 21-34 passing, more than 11 yards per passing play. He was absolutely insane on 1st down, as the Noles concentrated on Miami's run game. Quarterback Jacory Harris torched the FSU defense on first downs, going an incredible 14-18 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, good for an unheard of 247 quarterback rating (yes, a few points from perfect). Florida State allowed almost 16 yards per passing play and over 20 yards per completion! Miami passed far more often than they ran on 1st down and yet FSU made very few adjustments. And it wasn't just one or two long completions. Harris connected on passes of 40, 39, 31, 29, 27, 24, 20, 19, 18, 11, 8, 7, 6, and 5 yards. It continued throughout the game as FSU made no adjustments. Last night, we saw that Miami's offense is quite good as they torched Georgia Tech. Miami's wideouts are awesome. BYU's are not the same type of player, but they are very good in their own way.

But BYU presents an interesting case. They spread their formation, true, but they use Pro-Style personnel! Their best skill players are two full-back sized running backs, and two tight ends. I expect to see some three-wide sets against FSU, but not much in the way of four wide receivers. BYU will also run from the I-Formation, sometimes with Two tight ends. They are multiple to the max.

But this isn't the type of spread FSU usually struggles with. Hall is not a runner. FSU won't hesitate to pursue the runner when there appears to be a handoff, because there is little fear Hall will take off. I am inclined to classify BYU's offense as more of a pro-style, as despite their spread alignment, they do not run their quarterback, and use big personnel. In fact, as I discussed above, it makes sense to call BYU "Big Texas Tech", since that is where their offense came from. BYU makes their living on precise throws and timing routes. The most important key to this game, however, will be to win the battle in the middle. FSU must make BYU one-dimensional. Teams who turn BYU into a throw-only team typically dominate them, as it kills their play-action game. And for the most part, BYU doesn't want to run the ball. They are sometimes quick to abandon the run game, and have done so to their detriment several times in big games in recent years, including against Oklahoma. Getting pressure on Hall, specifically up the middle in his face, forcing him to throw on the move, is also important- but it needs to be done without blitzing a bunch. FSU's defense is made to play the pass. It dominates the pass. If FSU can have any success stopping BYU's run, the 'Nole's defense should be okay against the Cougar's passing attack. That's not to say it will shut it down, but that's not the goal.

Despite their lack of success against the pass against Miami, this Noles defense is still built to play the pass and not the run. I'm not crazy, hear me out on this. Miami found most of its passing success when FSU was focused on stopping the run- 1st down. Look at this breakdown against Oklahoma:

1st down Passing: 14-18, 285 yards, 2TD, 0 Int, No sacks. PERFECT QB RATING
2nd Down and 6 or less Passing: 2-4, 51 yards, 0TD, 0 Int, 0 Sacks, QB Rating 157 (very good)
2nd Down and 7 or more Passing: 1-3, 0 yards
3rd and 4 or less passing: 1-2, 5 yards (1 first down).
3rd and 5+ passing: 3-7, 46 yards, 0TD, 2 INT, 2 Sacks QB RATING: 40

As you can see, FSU plays very good pass defense when they know the pass is the overwhelmingly likely play from the offense. But make them worry about the run too much and the Nole's coverages become predictable and they get beat. If BYU is smart, they will try to run the ball and stay balanced against Florida State.

So how does FSU stop this and make BYU become one-dimensional? By winning on-on-one matchups. If they run from their I-formation, FSU will stack the box with athletes and simply dare BYU to beat them to the corner. That probably won't consistently happen. If BYU sees FSU sneaking that 8th man down into the box (and let's be honest, it's not a sneak, FSU just does it), they will need to throw the ball against one-on-one coverage. This is the first crucial one-on-one matchup FSU must win. FSU's cornerbacks must be able to handle BYU's receivers. Patrick Robinson is an elite cornerback and I have no doubt he can accomplish this. On the other side, the duty will fall to Ochuko Jenijie, or Dionte Allen. I'm higher on these guys than most, and in the Nole's cover-1 look, they will liekly help out those two by shading their deep safety. Of course, FSU must still take care of Dennis Pitta, their stud tight end and best player. That should be a joint effort and the idea isn't to shut him down as much as it is to limit him.

If BYU comes out in thier power-spread look, FSU will need to win another one-on-one matchup. With the sizable splits BYU takes, there will be opportunities for FSU's interior defensive line to make tackles for loss. That happens through using quickness to achieve penetration. FSU is going to need Stewart and McDaniel to be quicker off the ball than BYU's bigs. Tackles for loss are crucial when BYU runs from the gun because they use momentum runners. That is, BYU's guys take a bit to get going, but once they start rumbling, they are difficult to bring down. Much like Jerome Bettis, making these guys move laterally in the backfield will be key, as it will take away their ability to gain speed and momentum. Tackling low around the legs will be key. FSU should not shy away from bringing some early run pressure and shooting gaps. Sure, this leaves them more vulnerable deep, but if FSU has any shot to win this game, they must dare BYU to beat them deep and win that gamble.

This is an achievable goal. And it is one FSU is very aware of (nice article by Steve Ellis). BYU abandoned the run against TCU a year ago after TCU jumped out to an early lead. The Cougars ran only 20 rushing plays anf 50! passing plays. BYU averaged less than 2 yards per rush. Last year in the Bowl game the Cougars called only 30 rushing plays, compared to 48 passing plays. And this year against Oklahoma, BYU called 28 running plays and 43 passing plays. Want more proof that BYU doesn't really like to run? Against Oklahoma, when faced with 2nd and 7 or more, BYU ran just 3 times and threw 17 times. That is what we call a tendency, folks. Stop them on 1st down and they will give up on the run. Also, when they did run on 2nd and 7+, OU stuffed them. OU might have been too draw-conscious actually, as BYU beat them with play action (draw action) down the field a few times. He was really great at throwing underneath on 2nd and 7+ to bring up a manageable 3rd down. BYU is a throw team, and FSU just needs to encourage them in that direction a little bit to ensure they forget the run.

Coach Bowden indicated that redshirt Freshman Strong Safety/ Rover Nick Moody would likely start against BYU. That's a good thing. Moody is an intimidator over the middle and he could lay out a BYU wideout or two. While not great in coverage yet, he definitely plays the run well and I imagine FSU will use him on some blitzes as well. He is an intimidator.

Make BYU win the low percentage game.

At this point, it's probably a good idea to stop on over and read Chris Brown's article on coverages. FSU should be able to cover BYU's wideouts deep on a reasonably consistent basis without a whole lot of safety help. BYU runs a timing offense and throws into windows and spaces. The goal is to force the Cougars into beating FSU through the use of low percentage plays. A 5-yard slant against loose zone coverage is a high percentage play. BYU is so good at throwing that stuff that if FSU gives them that, they stand almost no chance of stopping the Cougars. But Max Hall really isn't much or a deep-ball thrower. Sure, every QB can loft the ball downfield, but I am talking about the more challenging throws. I'm talking about out-routes, skinny posts, etc. If BYU is going to throw all over Florida State, the 'Noles better be sure that they force the Cougars to do it via low percentage passes.

In order to disrupt the air-raid offense, you have to mess with their timing. I spoke with Chris Brown and he said that FSU needs to tackle on the short stuff, confuse and pressure hall without being reckless, and key and recognize formations and route combinations. It's a tall task, particularly because FSU's defensive coaches haven't been very good at communicating tendencies to their players. But it is doable, and it is doable because FSU can handle BYU's wideouts in man coverage.

As I previously stayed, BYU absolutely rips zone coverage. FSU plays below average zone coverage, at best. The Noles will play majority man coverage then, but with a twist. They'll play primarily man with zone defenders sprinkled in. Because FSU isn't really all that worried about BYU's receivers on the outside, they will look to flood the short and intermediate passing lanes. And they can do this by playing Cover-1 press, Cover-1 robber, and something I like to call cover-0 robber.

For the explanation of Cover-1 Robber, please go see Chris' article. The basic premise here is that if FSU is playing man coverage, BYU is going to try and hit some crossing routes. And they will hit them. But with the "robber" in the shallow middle, or wherever FSU aligns him, Max Hall might have to think twice about throwing that crossing route. Alabama did this beautifully last year to Georgia. The goal here is to get Hall to double clutch, double pump, or just hesitate a second. Is the crossing route really open? Put some doubt in Hall's mind. There's a lot of defenders to read inside of a small area. If Hall tries to re-set in the pocket because the route is either not open, or because Hall thinks it might not be open, that could be enough time for FSU's non-blitz pass rush to get to him. In addition, FSU can press out of this look, knowing that there is at least some safety help over the top. The press is a great way to disrupt timing routes and puts some doubt in a quarterback's mind. The weaknesses here are the deep ball to the outside part of the field (difficult throw), and play-action. Remember how I discussed the importance of getting BYU out of the run game? This is why. If BYU isn't running well, it will diminish the effect of the play-action fake. The robber coverage can also be effective against pick routes, particularly out of the bunch formations, because often times the throw coming out of those alignments is a slant or crossing route over the middle. Hall doesn't do a great job of keeping his eye's downfield when he re-sets in the pocket from what I have seen,

When BYU uses multiple tight ends, I think FSU can throw another wrinkle at them. Excuse my crude drawing, but my MS Paint is not my forte. I call this Cover-0 Double Robber.

FSU already plays a good bit of cover-0, but this is a nice wrinkle, particularly when BYU uses two tight ends and plays from the shotgun. It enables FSU to have a lot of guys very close to the line of scrimmage, yet has two free-lancing defenders (guys in yellow). Again, this should be effective against BYU's run game, but it should also force Max Hall to hold the ball. He'll think a blitz is coming, because of how many men are up at the line of scrimmage, but when he drops back, a blitz does not come and the quick throw he wanted to make is definitely not available. FSU must force Hall to hold the football. Disrupt timing, make him throw the difficult routes down the field, and make him hold the ball so that FSU's pass rushers can get there, without blitzing. BYU is so good at throwing the short and intermediate stuff. Of course, this coverage is vulnerable to the deep ball, not only on the outside, but down the middle as well. This is a known and accepted risk should FSU elect to employ this defense at all. Remember that Miami burned FSU's man-0 coverage several times, but that they have special athletes BYU just doesn't have. BYU must scheme their way down the field, while Miami can sometimes just sprint. BYU's guys won't simply fly by FSU's corners. BYU's wide receivers are so good at making the right reads and sitting down in holes, but it is very difficult for a QB to judge both the trail man on the drag/cross and also a robber coverage guy. FSU's speed enables them to play this coverage at times. Also, Hall will expect blitz out of this look. Everyone is up at the line of scrimmage, but who will be rushing? That's the key. With these 2 coverages, FSU should expect to get beat deep some, but when they do, it will be on low percentage throws.

I also think these coverages will work against their Texas and Angle stuff.

Making Hall re-set in the pocket and taking away his safe throws is smart and effective, but at some point, Hall will realize that FSU is blanketing his short stuff and will look to other routes. That's when FSU will blitz. But FSU must blitz intelligently. They cannot simply walk their blitzers to the line of scrimmage and run. Delayed blitzes should work well here. Hall will think the blitzer is in some sort of zone coverage, but then he rushes in. WIth the Cougar's huge splits, their linemen are vulnerable to this because they don't have the lateral quickness to slide and stop a late charging Nigel Bradham. The key will be to get Hall to think his short stuff is covered, BLITZ, and get there after he has moved on from the short stuff but before he gets to his deep progressions.

FSU has to do a lot better job blitzing as a team. By that I mean that currently, FSU is very selfish when they blitz. FSU will call a blitz, and 5 of the 6 people involved should be making sure they have proper positioning to occupy a speciifc blocker so that the blocker cannot block the blitzing man. The the blitzer rushes in untouched to the QB. Instead, FSU's guys all just try to get the QB. There's no organization or coordination between DE Coach Jodey Allen and LB Chuck Amato here, and there should be. Timing also plays a big factor here. Shocker here, but if the offense knows you are blitzing, they will have an easier job accounting for you! Imagine that! When FSU does blitz in a well-timed fashion, it seems more like luck than an intentional, organized plan.

On the Prowl. Remember how BYU isn't very good throwing in long situations? Most teams aren't. Hall doesn't have the arm to drive the ball downfield into tight windows. His ball flutters and often hangs. If FSU can stop BYU's run, or if BYU just falls in love with the pass, FSU will have a chance to break out their prowler formation. Remember that BYU's offensive line is huge but slow. One false step by a Cougar offensive lineman could spell doom for Max Hall because they can't move laterally quick enough to handle a blitzing defender. In any case, FSU likes to line up guys in crazy spots, with everyone standing up and only onw down lineman. FSU got the idea from summer trips to New England and Pittsburgh. It's very tough for the offense to know who is blitzing and who is in coverage. The Giants under Bill Belichek and Parcells used this to perfection against the Buffalo Bills in super bowl XLii in Tampa. Jim Kelley's shotgun offense was limited by the uncertainty. Against an offense that is based on automatic throws "if he is here, I throw here", FSU must create some uncertainty as to the QB's reads, and at the very least, must make him choose the difficult throws on his decision tree. The key though is to make BYU 1-dimensional. A good team will run right at the prowler if a defense employs it in a non obvious passing down situation.

Here's a good look at the prowler: (click to enlarge and read)

Remember, force 3rd and long!

Also, be careful of the Screen game. BYU runs a lot of screens, which is another reason not to blitz heavily (though faking the blitz and backing off should be great). I don't think BYU is a great screen team because their linemen are so slow, but they run them well enough. They also ran a Shovel-pass last weekend. Here's a screencap:

The guy in red is the pitch man. Tulane covered it so Hall kept it, but I don't expect to see this from BYU against FSU. They probably just ran it so FSU would have to waste practice time defending it.

In the end, I think FSU can be successful making Hall hesitate, forcing him into difficult throws, pressuring him once he is comfortable, and keeping him from being perfect. BYU will get their 28 points and 415 yards, but they will also have 2 or 3 turnovers. I just don't trust this defensive coaching staff to both come up with and impart a cohesive, logical gameplan to FSU's players. Thus, I can't see them Holding BYU under 24 points. But 28 is reasonable because FSU will get to the ball faster than some of BYU's other opponents, and that could rattle Hall and his receivers. I would not be at all surprised to see a tipped pass go for an interception the other way.

Welcome back to "The Final Score," our weekly prediction column that our readers have been clamoring for all week. This is where we, the self proclaimed experts here at Tomahawk Nation, match our through in-depth understanding, analytical skills, wisdom, and football knowledge, against you the readers psychic abilities, or better yet, guesses, for Saturday's expected shoot out between our Florida State Seminoles and the Cougars from BYU.

Before getting into the predictions for this week's game, I would like to recognize loyal Tomahawk Nation reader chris28, who last week won something shiny for his prediction and for coming closest to the final score in last weeks FSU-Jax St near debacle. Congratulations chris28.

So let's get it on.

First we will start with the predictions from kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homer authors here at TN, or even better yet, THE GOOD GUYS.

The K-Man= FSU 27 - BYU 21

oline0175= FSU 28 - BYU 24

MattDNole= FSU 31 - BYU 28

nolesblogger= FSU 35 - BYU 31

TrueCubbie= FSU 35 - BYU 33

pbysh= FSU 28 - BYU 24

FrankDNole= FSU 45 - BYU 35

Next, here are the predictions from those no-good, know nothings, or those we lovingly refer to as, THE BAD GUYS.

Nattylite= BYU 49 - FSU 24

SWFLNole= BYU 38 - FSU 28

FSUSOM= BYU 48 - FSU 35

Fsued= BYU 28 - FSU 24

And finally, we have

ricobert1= who is MIA, but will be added to one of the two categories when he responds,

and of course

FSUn= TBA in the upcoming Game Preview.

Now we are eager to learn what the most knowledgeable Nole fans on any of the FSU boards expect the final score to be for this game. Once again, the prize will be something shiny which will be given for the closest prediction (not spread) to the final score. At the end of the season, the reader (or author) who has won the most Shiny Awards will receive the grand prize, a much larger and shinier prize.

ARE YOU FEELING LUCKY? WELL ARE YOU PUNKS?

Florida State Film Review: A look into Florida State's First Down Pass Defense Against Miami

FSUncensored — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 06:49:40 -0000

After seeing that Freshman Safety Nick Moody will start over Senior Korey Mangum, who has his arm in a sling (mysteriously), this post should really help to explain why.

People often preach about establishing the run on first down, but the simple fact of the matter is that yards are yards. If a defense is putting all of its resources into stopping the run on first down, why not throw the ball? That is exactly what Miami did. Miami quarterback Jacory Harris torched the FSU defense on first downs, going an incredible 14-18 for 285 yards and two touchdowns, good for an unheard of 247 quarterback rating (yes, a few points from perfect). Florida State allowed almost 16 yards per passing play and over 20 yards per completion! Miami passed far more often than they ran on 1st down and yet FSU made very few adjustments.

And it wasn't just one or two long completions. Harris connected on passes of 40, 39, 31, 29, 27, 24, 20, 19, 18, 11, 8, 7, 6, and 5 yards. It continued throughout the game as FSU made no adjustments.

There are many reasons why a team might be able to have that kind of success on 1st down. Let's have a look at a few of the plays.

First up is a screen Miami ran. To open the game, they came out in an I-Formation. FSU countered with a 4-3 defense, in what looks to be some sort of cover-2 shell look. But UM was sneaky. They didn't use a fullback. Instead, they used two tailbacks, one of whom was the cousin of Edgerrin James. At the snap, Miami QB Jacory Harris drops back. The deep-set tailback runs a flair to the right, while the receivers run deep routes to make FSU's corners follow them. The tight end runs a short route to put himself in position to block. But most importantly, a very talented running back is playing the fullback position and is hiding behind a very big offensive line. As the snap, FSU DE Markus White and DT Kendrick Stewart rush upfield very quickly, as FSU defensive linemen are known to do. But the rush is dumb because they don't keep their heads up. They are rushing upfield without football smarts. Credit Miami's OC for knowing this. So Miami's offensive linemen block for two seconds, and then release. Here's the photo. A half second after this was taken, Miami's offensive linemen will let their men go, and Jacory Harris will flip the ball over the head of the defensive linemen and into the waiting arms of James (#5).

So Miami has two offensive linemen to block a single linebacker (Bradham, #13), and they have angles. Even though Bradham is an impressive player, he's doomed here. The result? 1/15 at Um29 Harris, J. screen pass complete to James, J. for 20 yards to the UM49, 1ST DOWN UM (Mangum, K), clock 14:46. To be honest, FSU didn't play this that poorly. It's just a very nice call.

But what of the other 18 passing plays on 1st down? Let's find out. Also, how did each member of the secondary play?

1st Down Pass Play #2: Play Action to Hankerson, Incomplete

After that screen pass, UM had 1st and 10 from the 48. Remember that FSU's run defense was really weak last year, and they were very concerned with stopping the run in this game. So Miami's Mark Whipple was smart and broke his tendencies. He went play-action. Miami again aligned in a standard I-Formation. They motioned a receiver in close to the tight end, then faked a handoff to the tailback. Look at this picture carefully (click to enlarge):

Pay attention to the blue line. That is the line of scrimmage. FSU has 7 players on the line of scrimmage or on Miami's side. That means that they only have 4 players in coverage. Miami has 7 blockers. This is a maximum protection, as only 3 players are running routes. You can see that Miami's right tackle has driven walk-on defensive end Craig Yarborough into the ground. The other rushers are being handles very easily. The key here is the linebackers. What will they do? Continue to rush the passer even though they are in a terrible position to continue, or drop back into coverage and hope to possibly alter a pass?

The answer is that Dekoda Watson and Kendal Smith continue to rush the passer, while Nigel Bradham drops back into coverage. He can't get to the RB (#30, top of picture), but he does sprint backwards quickly. And he does it quickly enough that Harris' pass is just a bit high for his intended receiever, who is running wide open, probebly because he wanted to loft it over his head. And why were they wide open?

Because Harris snapped this ball at 14:26 and didn't throw it until 14:21 You simply cannot play man to man defense for 5 seconds. A zone maybe, but not man-to-man without help. FSU's linebacker coach Chuck Amato is a bad coach and he simply must school his guys better. This is terrible play recognition and it falls on Amato. it is his job to teach his guys to do a better job. It is embarassing to root for a team whose linebackers play so stupidly. 8 yards to go to get to a QB who is already setup behind an 7-man protection? Don't rush, drop back.

So far, we've seen FSU play a pass pretty well and get burned, and FSU play a pass very poorly, and get lucky. On the next play, FSU would not get a great result out of poor play.

If you follow FSU football, you know that Mickey Andrews loves to play cover-1 on 1st down. That means P-Rob (bottom of screen, #21), is on a wideout. Our deep safety (off-screen) plays deep, Korey Mangum (#22) takes the slot receiver, Dekoda Watson takes one of the tight ends, and Jenijie takes another. Bradham takes the running back), and Kendal Smith looks to be mirroring the QB. I wish I could offer better analysis, but Mangum plays this soooo poorly that there just isn't much time to see the play. In any case, here's the look at the snap:

Mangum has the slot receiver, Travis Benjamin.

Mangum is still not in the picture, which is disappointing. Benjamin is extremely fast. Where is Mangum?

Ok, I had to rewind the tape ablout 10 times, but this is the first step Mangum took. Literally, he stood there flat-footed until Benjamin's 6th step. Seriously, I counted, Mangum's first step occurs on Benjamin's 6th step. Benjamin has all the momentum, and he is faster than Mangum. Mangum might think he can just turn Benjamin too the deep safety, but at this point, his technique is so bad that the safety will be of little help. And that is exactly what happened:

Yeah, that's Benjamin looking up for the ball, 4 yards past Manum even after slowing up. Mangum showed possibly the worse technique ever displayed by a DB. There is a chance that Mangum thought he was playing another coverage, but to be honest, I can't figure out what that would be. And neither couls his teammates. Bradham and the other defenders ripped into Mangum, he tried to explain himself, they told him he was wrong, and I captured this image as Mangum says "my bad", while slapping his head.

So yeah, TD Miami and it was way too easy. But there is also a Mickey Andrews problem here. FSU simply cannot let a rover man-up on a receiver. That's a mismatch.

1st Down Pass #4:

1/10 at Um24 Harris, J. screen pass complete to James, J. for 8 yards to the UM32 (Smith, K), clock 00:48. This is a screen just like the first of the game, only Bradham is not double teamed and handles Miami's tackle better. But the DL plays it poorly, as does Kendal Smith (again), and Miami gets 8 yards.

1st Down Pass Play # 5

1/10 at Um38 Harris, J. sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UM35 (Robinson, J), PENALTY UM holding (Pipho, M.) 10 yards to the UM28, NO PLAY, clock 14:16. This was Play-action, with excellent coverage, a 3-man route. Jenijie, Bradham, and P-Robinson all with excellent coverage. FSU read-blitzed (waited to see if man went into route, and if not, blitzed). The protection broke down and FSU got the sack, but they accepted the hold.

1st Down Pass Play #6

1/10 at Um22 Harris, J. deep pass complete to Hankerson, L. for 40 yards to the FS38, 1ST DOWN UM (Moody, N), clock 09:00.

This was a bad play. Miami is in the I-Formation, and FSU is too small to stop the run without using the extra man, so FSU plays 8 guys in the box, and plays their corners way off. See:

Once again, this is first down, and FSU is in cover-1 (one deep safety, everyone else in man coverage). Miami again goes to the play-action, and FSU bites hard, as most undisciplined defenses do. Luckily, Miami is using an 8-man protection (only 2 guys running a route). The problem here is that the corner is peeking into the backfield when he doesn't need to. When a corner is on an island, he must play his receiver and completely disregard the run. Freshman A.J. Alexander is defending the receiver on the play and he gets beat. Alexander does do a nice job to recover, however, so give him credit for that. The wideout makes a great catch too. Also, #10 Nick Moody, Freshman Strong Safety gets over too late. Moody should not be playing solo deep coverage. He's a hitter/ run stopper and not a deep cover guy. Jamie Robinson should do that:

Also, Mickey Andrews needs to play his starters and stop substituting so much. The problem of depth is one entirely of his own creation due to poor recruiting, and he can't continue to trust his backups like this is a defense of the 90's. it is not. This defense lacks talent and experience, and the defensive backs need to play almost every snap and not come out.

1st Down Pass Play #7

1/10 at Fs38 Harris, J. crossing pass complete to Hankerson, L. for 11 yards to the FS27, 1ST DOWN UM (Robinson, P), clock 08:32. Again, Cover-1, play action, no blitz, coverage is decent but in cover-1, crossing routes will hit and Harris puts this on the money.

1st Down Pass Play #8

1/10 at Fs27 Harris, J. sideline pass incomplete to James, J., PENALTY UM illegal block (Byrd, L.) 15 yards to the FS42, NO PLAY, clock 08:08. There's an important change here. FSU does not cover the slot receiver with their safety, but instead use a cornerback (imagine that). FSU blitzes one guy and Harris has to unload quickly. Bradham has superb coverage on the speedy Greg Cooper. Playing cover-1 without blitzing is really dumb. You have to force quick pressure. FSU didn't do that ofetn, but did here.

1st Down Pass Play #9

1/10 at Um25 Harris, J. crossing pass complete to Epps, D. for 19 yards to the UM44, 1ST DOWN UM (Robinson, J), clock 02:32.

I wish I could tell you who was covering the tight end who catches the ball, but the angle is terrible. Instead, let's see another example of Harris with NO pressure after a weak Play-action fake and a half-roll:

FSU's defensive line is garbage. Seriously, I am embarrassed to root for this group. There isnb't a player within 8 yards of Harris. He stands there and holds the ball forever befor e aguy finally comes open.

1st Down Pass Play # 10

1/10 at Um44 Harris, J. deep in pass complete to Collier, T. for 18 yards to the FS38, 1ST DOWN UM (Reid, G), clock 02:10.

Watch closely here, all of you who think Greg Reid should start in the base defense because of things he did that don't translate to the base defense...

I circled Reid and the player he is covering. Greg has inside leverage here, and his goal is to not let that man cross his care. But Greg uses poor technique and gets beat 18 yards down the field, across his face. BUT, we must also excuse Greg like we do the others because Harris once again had tons of time to throw the ball and you can't cover man-to-man for 5 seconds.

1st Down Pass Play # 11

1/10 at Fs23 Harris, J. middle pass complete to Johnson, A. for 6 yards to the FS17 (Jenije, O), clock 01:11.

FSU actually runs the prowler 1-5-5 defense here, and blitzes 5 men, but not very well. The pressure doesn't get to Harris, and Jenijie is playing so far off Johnson that even if the pressure did get there, Harris would have an easy throw. Blitzing with man coverage is designed to force a quick throw, and the corner must play close to his man. Poor job by Jenijie here:

He's 5 yards away from Johnson at the time of the catch.

1st Down Pass Play #12

Um 1/10 at Um20 Harris, J. post pass complete to Johnson, A. for 31 yards to the FS49, 1ST DOWN UM, clock 11:51.

This play is all on Jamie Robinson. Jenijie has outside leverage, sticks with Johnson for the most part, and Robinson is blowing the play by biting on the play-fake. Jenijie really plays this perfectly, but Robinson is so far out of position. I circled Robinson in Red and Jenijie in Yellow.

Robinson should be where the Seminole head is, and instead he is 12 yards out of position. Notice that Jenijie (someone who is taking way too much heat) is running even with the reciever and expects Robinson to be there.

1st Down Pass # 13

1/10 at Fs29 Harris, J. flag pass complete to Epps, D. for 27 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN UM, out-of-bounds (Robinson, J;Mangum, K), clock 04:36.

No video of this one. Just know that Mangum got burnt, but the QB had 5 full seconds to throw the ball and nobody came close to touching him. Want to get mad at a DB? Unload on Mangum, not Jenijie.

1st Down Pass # 14

This is a play-action pass the Miami's guy falls down an FSU brings a lot of pressure, on FSU's goal line.

1st Down pass # 15

29-yard post to Benjamin, Jenijie has coverage, but Mangum is no help over the middle (where he should be), and the linebackers bite hard on play-action, giving Harris a huge window to throw into. Blame Jenijie if you want the easy way out, but blame Mangum if you understand the play.

1st Down Pass # 16

This was a screen pass that Nigel Bradham recognized and blew up immediately. Great play.

1st Down Pass Play # 17

Miami splits their tailback/kick returner out wide. FSU responds by focering him with their MIDDLE LINEBACKER, with zero safety help over the top. That is a huge, huge, inexcuseable mismatch. This is one of the dumbest things Mickey Andrews has ever done in a game.

Seriously, Cooper beat him by 12 yards for the touchdown. Mickey has to give these guys a check to a zone coverage if they see this look. His failure to prepare these players is a joke.

1st Down Pass Play # 18

1/10 at Um41 Harris, J. middle pass complete to James, J. for 7 yards to the UM48 (Carr, N), clock 03:50. A simple Texas/Angle route from the runner. Miami ran this earlier in hte game and missed the throw, but against FSU's coverage schemes, thgis play will be open all of the time.

1st Down Pass Play # 19

1/10 at Fs48 Harris, J. middle pass complete to Hankerson, L. for 5 yards to the FS43, out-of-bounds (Reid, G), clock 02:32. This is a crossing route and I am not sure who was supposed to cover him. No pressure on the QB again, but it was a very quick pass. Greg Reid nice tackle after sucessfully covering his man.

So Why?

Why did FSU’s defense play so poorly? First, FSU’s run defense was awful in 2008:

Coming into this game, the ‘Noles were very concerned with stopping Miami’s running game. Their alignment showed their concern, and Miami did a nice job to recognize FSU’s plan. When FSU geared up to stop the run, Miami threw the ball.

But the bigger problem than FSU selling out to stop the run was their complete lack of a pass rush. In the Tomahawk Nation Preview, we discussed how FSU’s recruiting problems in 2006 and 2007 might hurt the ‘Noles as the defensive coaches did a poor job of recruiting in those years and as a result, FSU would be forced to rely on freshmen and sophomores along the defensive line. Florida State was only able to pressure Harris when they brought big blitzes, which exposed their secondary. You saw evidence of that on 3^rd down where FSU had two interceptions and their lone sack. But on first down, FSU did not blitz. Miami’s offensive line easily held their own against Florida State’s defensive line and Harris had all the time in the world to sit in the pocket, go through all of his reads and deliver an accurate ball– usually to a wide open receiver. While FSU’s secondary will receive a lot of the blame, that analysis is shortsighted. The ‘Nole defensive backs didn’t play well, but there isn’t a secondary in college football that can cover for six or seven seconds, and unfortunately for ‘Nole fans, that is exactly what they were forced to do. Give Miami a lot of credit for going into Tallahassee and grabbing the win, but Florida State’s defensive coaches set this current defense up for failure through their actions in 2006 and 2007, and exacerbated those problems by failing to make adjustments throughout the game.

What now? A few conclusions:

Bench Korey Mangum. He is truly terrible, not likely to get better, and as a Senior, will not be around next year. Luckily for the Noles, Mangum's arm is in a sling and Nick Moody will be the starter tomorrow against Jacksonville State (preview coming tomorrow). Moody is far from perfect and it will be interesting to see how the freshman plays. FSU needs to use him in a specific way.
Don't bench Jenijie yet. Everyone wants Greg Reid, and Reid made some great plays, but he made them free-lancing. Thay works in a Nickel package with help over the top, but to be the #2 corner his primary responsibility is just to stick with his man, something Jenijie already did pretty well, and something Greg has not shown he can do yet. Andrews is right when he says "Reid is trying to do too much. There's a difference between playing inside with help and outside on the island." Reid will be a phenomenal corner in time, but seeing that our next 3 opponents all play the spread, and 3+ corners will be needed, leaving Greg in the Nickel slot makes the most sense. Allow him to free-lance without subjecting the team to disaster.
None of our DB's will look good without a pass rush.
Patrick Robinson had great coverage on almost every one of Miami's pass plays. His tackling, however, was poor.
Jamie Robinson showed good range, but did blow two crucial assignments.
It's clear how much the defense heard about their troubles with the run. They bit on play-action harder than I've ever seen them bite.

Florida State Prepares for Miami and Releases Depth Chart -Fixed and Updated!

FSUncensored — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 11:55:50 -0000

First up, I did Bud Elliott Tomahawk Nation Fox Sports Radio the other day. [That's an audio link, and it is safe for work]. It went pretty well, though I meant to say Christian Ponder averaged 4 first downs per game, not 4 total first downs gained on the year, obviously.

The good news coming out of Saturday's scrimmage is that there are no new injuries. DT's Budd Thacker (toe) and Kendrick Stewart (knee) were held out for precautionary reasons, as was freshman DE/DT DeMonte McAlllister. I expect Stewart to play against Miami and Thacker should be back in time, but that is not a definite.

Mickey Andrews indicated that backup Free Safety Terrance Parks will be out for at least two more weeks with a lingering hamstring injury. Jamey Robinson really needs to stay healthy.

Oh, and the big news was that the coaches finally released a depth chart (practices are closed, so nobody could officially know what was going on, though there are obviously leaks). Inside, we discuss the depth chart

This is not final and will almost certainly change.

First up, is the Seminoles top rated ACC offense of a year ago:

Z WR – Richard Goodman, Sr., 6-0/215
Jarmon Fortson, Soph., 6-3/228

LT – Andrew Datko, Soph., 6-6/291
Rhonne Sanderson, Fr., 6-4/288

LG – Rodney Hudson, Jr., 6-2/292
Blake Snider, Fr., 6-4/282

C – Ryan McMahon, Jr., 6-3/286
A.J. Ganguzza, Soph., 6-3/268

RG – David Spurlock, Soph., 6-5/288
Brandon Davis, Jr., 6-2/281

RT – Zebrie Sanders, Soph., 6-5/290
Garrett Faircloth, Fr., 6-6/288

TE – Caz Piurowski, Sr., 6-7/262
Beau Reliford, Soph., 6-7/241

QB – Christian Ponder, Jr., 6-3/222
E.J. Manuel, Fr., 6-4/223

FB – Ja’Baris Little, Soph., 6-4/226
Daniel Gard, Jr., 5-10/212

TB – Jermaine Thomas, Soph., 6-1/195
Ty Jones, Soph., 5-11/208
or Chris Thompson, Fr., 5-8/173

X WR – Rod Owens, Sr., 6-0/183
Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165

Incorrect player weights. For instance, we know Ponder is 222 and Caz is 260, and Fortson is probably closer to 230 than 223. Datko is 290, not 283. So yeah, these are the weights from the Spring. Nice of FSU to update them for us (sarcasm). I updated them were applicable.
You'll note that FSU lists a fullback. I find that curious and continue to believe that they will use that "fullback" as an H-back.
Seniors at wideout. Goodman and Owens have set the tone witht he most consistent camp, running the correct routes, catching balls, etc, so they will start. This coaching staff (unlike the defense) will start the best player regardless of senority, so I trust them.
Tavares Pressley isn't healthy, and as we told you time and again, don't expect performance out of a runner coming off that type of injury in his first season back.
Chris Thompson was so electric in his performance during camp before busting his ankle that he is tied for 2nd on the DC. Pryor should redshirt but will likely get some garbage minutes. All of the backs need to fix their pass protection issues.
The loser of the Spurlock/ Davis battle will be the backup at both guard positions.
Sanderson is the real backup at both tackle positions.

Jimbo Fisher notes that his offense only has three scholarship seniors, starting or otherwise. (and all three are easily replaced after this season). If the offense was the conference's best last year, what can we expect this year and in 2010? We've been pointing out thr youth of this team for month, but when Fisher says it, it resonates with you so we link it.

What might we do with our H-Back? Michigan is doing this:

To counter that "scrape" technique (see article below defense depth chart)

The Wolverines have practiced with a tight end (typically Kevin Koger or Martell Webb) lined up in the backfield as an H-back to the playside. When the team runs the zone-read play, the H-back pulls across, but doesn't block the crashing defensive end. He'll take the linebacker scraping over the top, or if there isn't a defender assigned to the QB keep, he'll work upfield to the next defender.

I imagine this scheme only works really well when the defense is trying to run this scrape technique, and will primarily be used only when the offensive coaching staff expects it from the defense. H/t- Tim

Ponder says he is getting better protection this year, and that's allowed him to post a perfect QB rating:

Ponder appears to be displaying that ability in preseason practice. In FSU's first two full scrimmages, working against the second-team defense, he passed for a combined 520 yards on 27-of-36 passing. He threw seven touchdown passes with no interceptions.

``Obviously, it all starts with them,'' Ponder said of the offensive linemen. ``If they didn't give me time, those deep balls wouldn't be completed. They're doing a good job.''When he drops back from center, the junior quarterback said he no longer feels the need to peek over his shoulder to see if he is the target of an approaching pass-rusher. He simply makes his reads, plants his feet, steps forward in the pocket and delivers his throws.

``That blind side is hard to deal with,'' Ponder said. ``When you have a left tackle and a left guard like Rodney and Datko, it makes things a lot better. It gives me more comfort in setting my feet, and that's something I struggled with last year. Now I can sit in the pocket and stay comfortable. I'm not running a lot like I did last year. I'm staying in there.''

Ponder Speaks:

-not looking to run as much as he did last year. He’d like to protect his body. But, he said, if he has to run he will run. He is looking to stay in the pocket longer.

-Ponder isn’t a yeller – "I don’t feel like I have to raise my voice," he says – but says he has gotten on some of his teammates this preseason. That’s a sign of him developing as a leader.

He's very confident against Miami.

Carter on Fisher on FSU

-though Ponder is likely to spend more time in the pocket, Fisher says he doesn’t want to eliminate Ponder’s ability to run.

-the pass blocking has come a good ways, Fisher said, but it also helps that receivers are doing a better job running the correct routes.

-It’s "wait and see" to see if E.J. Manuel will be used in some sort of creative way, or if he’ll be a more traditional back-up. They have a package in place for Manuel, but Fisher said he’s going to wait and see how things go in practice this week.

-going back to the Miami game last year, Fisher said that game helped show him that Ponder is a winner. Remember that fourth-quarter scramble for a first down? Ponder can process information and he’s conscientious, Fisher said. He cares.

DEFENSE

If you're in the "the defense will be fine crowd", I suggest you take another look.

LE – Craig Yarborough, Sr., 6-2/236
Toshmon Stevens, Fr., 6-5/228

DT – Moses McCray, Soph., 6-2/291
Everett Dawkins, So, 6-2/262

NT – Kendrick Stewart, Sr., 6-2/278
Jacobbi McDaniel, Fr., 6-0/288

RE – Markus White, Jr., 6-4/261
Brandon Jenkins, Fr., 6-2/240

SLB – Dekoda Watson, Sr., 6-2/228
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230

MLB – Kendall Smith, Jr., 6-1/224
Nigel Carr, Soph., 6-3/230*

WLB – Nigel Bradham, Soph., 6-2/235
Maurice Harris, Soph., 6-0/212

CB – Ochuko Jenije, Jr., 5-10/188
Dionte Allen, Soph., 5-11/172

CB – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
A.J. Alexander, Fr., 5-11/180

FS – Jamie Robinson, Sr., 6-2/188
Justin Bright, Fr., 6-0/180
or Chad Colley, Soph., 5-11/166

RV – Korey Mangum, Sr., 6-0/202
Nick Moody, Fr., 6-2/228

The starters are okay for the most part, but the backups are terrible, and this defense could easily be crippled by a single injury to a defensive lineman or a linebacker. There are many problems with this defense, including hiring cronies instead of the best possible coaches, lack of recruiting and a recruiting plan in 2006 and 2007, an outdated scheme, stressing aggression over discipline, blaming the players instead of the coaches, and the battle between Andrews in the program (should be in youth movement but he's trying to win now, because it is his last season before he goes to raise his son's kids, etc).
Jodey Allen is a horrible defensive ends coach. He can't hold Jim Gladden's jock. For him to be giving snaps to Yarborough, even for motivational purposes, is inexcuseable. Allen never played or coached defensive ends before being gifted the job by Bowden. It has not worked out well as they continue to be incredibly undersized and undisciplined.
The Yarborough pick is annoying. I was asked about starting a walk-on defensive end a few days ago, this was my response:
Senior walkon. This Senority above all other stuff at the expense of talent angers me. Jody Allen is a terrible coach who will not be around much longer. Seriously the worst coach, but not the lightning rod Amato is. Oh and he coordinates our putrid coverage units as well. Prepare for a year of bad defense. I won’t sugarcoat it. Bad coaching from coaches who no longer have or never had the ability or the drive. I expect to be a bottom half defense in the ACC and outside the top 40 for the first time in my lifetime. Prepare for the worst Mickey Andrews Defense ever. It could happen. They will blame it on injury but their poor player evaluation and recruiting have created a situation where any injury is crippling. The key to a great defense is quality depth, and FSU doesn't have any depth, much less quality depth. I'm not hoping for good, I am hoping to skirt disaster.
Yes, I understand that this could be motivational in order to light a fire under Senior Kevin McNiel, who showed up to camp out of shape. I buy it to an extent, but not fully, because Yarborough has been getting significant reps in practice. If he plays, FSU is in trouble, because they will once against get run over as teams realize the 'Noles are entirely too small.
The depth along the defensive line is inexcuseable. This is a result of injuries, but moreso, poor recruiting by the lame duck defensive staff. They slacked in 2006 and 2007 and as a result, they have crippled this team's depth. FSU is now depending on a freshman and sophomore defensive tackle tandem to start and play well. While talented, it's likely they will get worked in some games.
I replaced Recardo Wright with Nigel Carr. No way would Recardo Wright get into the game over him as the backup middle linebacker.
Don't worry about Jenijie. He played well last year. Greg Reid will start at Nickel corner (effectively, is FSU's 3rd corner). If Jenijie or Robinson go down, Reid slides in.
I do worry about Mangum at rover, a lot. The problem here, however, is that nobody even came close to outplaying him. You can't start a freshman over a senior when the freshman hasn't given you any readon to do so, right? Mostly because of injuries and inexperience, guys like Harley and Moody never put it all together this fall camp. Mangum isn't big, but he has good tackling technique and could be serviceable, though he will not be Myron Rolle.
The entire secondary will receive a lot of blame for things that aren't their fault this year as Andrews' silly outdated scheme continues to put way too much pressure on them.

Mickey Andrews says his defense is young: In this article, Andrews tells Steve Ellis that 13 of the top 22 will be freshmen or sophomores. However, when you count it up, it looks like 12. In any case, his defense was very veteran last season and didn't live up to expectations. Andrews is no longer a good teacher and seeing as this will be his last year, it will be very interesting to see if he can field a competent defense with this group. The blame for the youthful nature of the defense falls on Andrews' 2006 and 2007 recruiting failures, because he is the defensive coordinator.

Here is a good article on defending the zone read- something Mickey Andrews and his staff have not been able to deal with at all (7 yards per play allowed).

Mickey's press-conference wrap up

-Team is super young and fast but not strong or disciplined. Fastest ever. Super fast.

-Andrews said the problems in covering the tight ends in recent years – Miami took advantage of this last season – was a lack of discipline.

-Greg Reid will start in the Seminoles’ nickel package. FSU has four freshmen, Reid included, who could see time in the secondary. Reid is probably the furthest along, Andrews said. Andrews: "Greg knows how to finish plays."

I am impressed by the progress of the young guys, but they have to progress because there are no upperclassmen.

SPECIALISTS
PK – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174
James Esco, Soph., 6-3/207

KO – Dustin Hopkins, Fr., 6-2/174

P – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217
Kevin Campbell, Jr., 6-0/190

DS – Zack Aronson, Sr., 6-2/218
Chris Revell, Fr., 6-0/207

HO – Shaun Powell, Soph., 6-5/217

PR – Bert Reed, Soph., 5-11/165
or Greg Reid, Fr., 5-9/175

KR – Patrick Robinson, Sr., 5-11/194
Taiwan Easterling, Soph., 5-11/187

It's absolutely ridiculous for Patrick Robinson, the top cornerback in the nation, the best football player on the team, and the most important player on defense, to be risking injury by returning kicks. Again, Jodey Allen should not have a job in major college football, and definitely not with the 'Noles.
The punt return unit could be particularly nasty.
The total lack of depth at linebacker will hur the 'Noles coverage units, which were alreay awful last year (68th nationally!). Thanks again, defensive coaches.

Odds and Ends

Another article on why going for 4th down makes so much more sense than punting.

Florida State ended last year with the 2nd-most offensive momentum in the country. That's a good sign, and really, really shows you how good BC and UF were on defense. Everyone played terribly against those two.

Bulls' Defense	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) Per Drive, better explanation at link.	39th
S&P+ Defense (National) Per play, better explanation at link.	38th	10th	78th
S&P+ Defense Conference Games Only	3rd	2nd	6th

1	Florida State	0.107
2	Syracuse	0.086
5	UCLA	0.052
8	Miami	0.045
10	Wisconsin	0.038
11	LSU	0.037
16	North Carolina State	0.021
23	Texas	0.016
29	Pittsburgh	0.012
37	Duke	0.008
44	Florida	0.004
48	Clemson	0.001
51	Virginia Tech	0
52	Vanderbilt	-0.002
53	Maryland	-0.002
56	BYU	-0.004
57	North Carolina	-0.005
61	USC	-0.006
70	Georgia Tech	-0.012
71	South Florida	-0.012
83	Rutgers	-0.021
93	Virginia	-0.029
94	Wake Forest	-0.029
106	Boston College	-0.044
120	Auburn	-0.093

Matt Grothe	Games	QB Rating	Yards/ Attempt	TD	INT
All Games	13	136	7.7	18	14
v. Conference	7	119	7.1	7	12
v. Non-Conference	6	156	8.4	11	2
v. Winning	6	109	6.5	4	10
v. Non-Winning	7	162	8.8	14	4

2008				2007
Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opponent	Att	Yards	Avg.
Tenn.-Martin	15	61	4.1	Elon	6	83	13.8
@ UCF	Did	Not	Play	@ 15 Auburn	21	74	3.5
Kansas	1	3	3.0	North Carolina	6	13	2.2
@ Florida Int'l	14	24	1.7	6 West Virginia	5	42	8.4
@ North Carolina St.	11	64	5.8	@ Fla. Atlantic	Did	Not	Play
Pittsburgh	14	73	5.2	UCF	8	39	4.9
Syracuse	11	51	4.6	@ Rutgers	4	9	2.3
@ Louisville	5	13	2.6	@ Connecticut	7	27	3.9
@ 17 Cincinnati	Did	Not	Play	17 Cincinnati	7	13	1.9
Rutgers	1	2	2.0	@ Syracuse	28	134	4.8
Connecticut	8	20	2.5	Louisville	24	140	5.8
@ 23 West Virginia	14	62	4.4	@ Pittsburgh	16	63	3.9
+ Memphis	8	34	4.3	+ 23 Oregon	6	8	1.3
Totals	102	407	4.0	Totals	138	645	4.7

Name	Yr	Pos	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G	Note
Taurus Johnson	SR	WR	38	498	13.1	6	2.9	38	Led team in TD's, 2nd in Yards & Cathes
Marcus Edwards	SR	WR	19	259	13.6	0	1.5	20	31 Career Starts
Cedric Hill	SR	TE	16	194	12.1	2	1.2	15	2nd Team Big East