SB Nation - Jermaine Thomas

Maryland-Florida State Preview

Ben Broman — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:56:35 -0000

Lots of stuff happened this week: Maryland got a commitment from Ashton Pankey, lost one from Tobias Harris, and learned Dino Gregory's status. Actually, so much happened that it's easy to forget there's a football game tomorrow.

There is one, and it's against a team everyone loves to hate: Florida State. The Seminoles, actually, have some strange similarities to Maryland.

Both have coaches in waiting. Both have HCs formerly extremely successful that are falling back to earth. Both have defenses in the bottom 40 in the nation. Both have QBs making their second start due to the injury of a previously entrenched veteran.

Of course, there are some very important differences, too. FSU's QB is former Maryland target E.J. Manuel, a five-star recruit from Virginia Beach. Maryland's QB is Jamarr Robinson, a two star from North Carolina. FSU's offense is in the top 20; Maryland's is in the bottom 20. Most importantly, the Noles are playing for a bowl bid, sitting at 5-5 on the year.

With the motivation for both teams - for Maryland, all but guarantee that F$U misses a bowl; for FSU, making a bowl - out of the way, the actual matchup on the field isn't exactly favorable.

While E.J. Manuel is no Christian Ponder, he might have more raw talent than Ponder, and looked pretty decent in his starting debut against Wake Forest - 15-20, 220 yards, a TD and an INT. Maryland probably won't be able to count on flustering and taking advantage of the redshirt freshman, but they can take solace in the fact that he's not as good at running Florida State's offense as Ponder is.

And that's a very good thing. Florida State has the country's 19th best offense, checking in at 13th through the air. They turned more to the ground attack against Wake Forest last week with the absence of Ponder, but that didn't exactly fail - they picked up 217 yards on 43 carries for a 5 ypc average. I wouldn't expect them to vary too far from that formula, but I would be surprised if they didn't let Manuel open it up a bit more against Maryland's mostly pathetic secondary.

Their top running back is Jermaine Thomas, a well-rounded back with a penchant for breaking tackles who's rounded up more than 5 yards a carry. Manuel is also a threat on the ground; while not as fast as Robinson is for Maryland, he's got quick feet.

Maryland's best hope here is to prevent Thomas from busting big runs, wait for Manuel to throw, and force him to make mistakes. Just because he didn't make them against Wake doesn't mean he isn't capable of making them. It'll be a tough task for this defense, but that's their best shot at staying close.

Not all hope is lost, though - FSU's defense is terrible, and literally worse than Maryland's. They're 109th in total defense, 105th in rush defense, and 96th in scoring defense. Maryland will have to put up points, but they just might be capable of it.

Sadly, FSU's one big strength, if it can be called that, is in their secondary, which houses Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the country. He'll match up with Torrey Smith, and probably be able to neutralize him. After that, they're much weaker in the back four, so hopefully Maryland can utilize their WR depth when passing the ball, going five wide often to exploit FSU's lack of depth in the secondary.

Where they're really weak is against the run, particularly on the line. That'll be a nice break for the Terps' much maligned OL, which could use an equal opponent. Similarly to the VT game, putting up rushing yards will be a main key to keeping close. FSU's just much worse at rush defense.

Luckily, Maryland gets Da'Rel Scott back this week, so they'll have a full stable of backs to throw at one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Jamarr Robinson should also be able to make a dent. The folks over at Tomahawk Nation often complain about their overpursuing defense - throw in slippery conditions, and that should be a feast for guys like Robinson and Caleb Porzel, assuming the latter can stay on his feet.

As always, Maryland will need a big performance from their special teams (and probably some points from the defense) if they want to pull out a win. Maryland will definitely be able to score on FSU's defense, but not nearly at the rate that the Noles should be able to score on Maryland's. I'm calling a 38-24 loss.

The Preview: Maryland Terrapins @ Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:10 -0000

View full size photo »

Time: Noon
TV: Raycom Sports - Tim Brant (pbp), Doc Walker (color) and Mike Hogewood (sidelines) will call the action. The game can also be seen on ESPN Gameplan or ESPN360.com.
Line: FSU -18.5
Forecast: Rain? No Rain? Looks like heavy rain in the afternoon but it should hold off for the first half.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 36-9 home loss to Virginia Tech. They sit at 1-8 on the year against D1 teams. Their coach, Ralf Friedgen on that loss:

"I thought we improved in our offensive line play. Andrew Gonnella played probably his best game and I thought Terrell Skinner played a fantastic game. He had 13 tackles and really played well. We defended the run well, but what we didn't do was defend the big plays and the passing game. We have to make some more plays in our offense. There are some plays out there that we need to make and we didn't make them. On Monday night I showed about eight plays to the offense where we are very, very close to just sustaining the block, breaking the tackle or making the catch to make a difference."

Maryland Offense v. FSU Defense

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's offense isn't very good. 83rd in the country and significantly worse than North Carolina (the next best offense FSU has played). But they are better than USF, and like USF, they are starting a young running quarterback for the first time.

And Florida State's defense...

As you can see (click to enlarge), FSU's defense is 90th in the country. Maryland put 31 points on NC State's 85th ranked defense on the road, and dropped 32 on Wake's 46th ranked unit, also on the road. But that was with their quarterback. Let's see what they are currently working with.

Here's Maryland's offensive depth chart:

WR-X 7 Adrian Cannon 6-2 204 Jr.-2V
LT 74 Bruce Campbell 6-7 310 Jr.-2V
LG 71 Paul Pinegar 6-4 290 Jr.-2V
C 72 Phil Costa 6-3 300 Sr.-2V
RG 77 Andrew Gonnella 6-6 305 So.-SQ or 78 Justin Lewis 6-4 320 Fr.-RS
RT 76 R.J. Dill 6-7 320 Fr.-RS
TE-Y 34 Devonte Campbell 6-2 250 Fr.-RS
QB 11 Jamarr Robinson 6-0 190 So.-SQ
TB 8 Davin Meggett 5-8 215 So.-1V & 23 Da'Rel Scott 5-11 200 Jr.-2V
FB 38 Cory Jackson 6-1 245 Sr.-3V
WR-Z 82 Torrey Smith 6-1 200 So.-1V
WR-F 24 Ronnie Tyler 5-11 190 So.-1V
TE-F 80 Lansford Watson 6-4 260 So.-1V

And FSU's Defensive Depth Chart:

LE 95 Kevin McNeil 6-2, 257, SR
DT 93 Everett Dawkins 6-2, 258, FR & 72 Budd Thacker 6-2, 276, SR
NT 90 Moses McCray 6-2, 298, SO & 99 Jacobbi McDaniel 6-0, 267, FR
RE 98 Markus White 6-4, 261, JR & 49 Brandon Jenkins 6-2, 240, FR
SLB 36 Dekoda Watson 6-2, 226, SR
MLB 29 Kendall Smith 6-1, 224, JR
WLB 13 Nigel Bradham 6-2, 235, SO
Backup LB 12 Nigel Carr 6-3, 230, SO
CB 15 Ochuko Jenije 5-10, 188, JR
FS 20 Jamie Robinson 6-2, 188, SR
RV 22 Korey Mangum 6-0, 202, SR & 10 Nick Moody 6-2, 228, FR
CB 21 Patrick Robinson 5-11, 194, SR
Nickel Corner: 5 Greg Reid 5-9, 175, FR

Phillip, a friend of Tomahawk Nation, will be helping us out with the Maryland team.

Jamarr Robinson is the new quarterback. He runs a 4.66 in the forty yard dash so he'll give your defense all types of problems scrambling but at this point he's just not a good passer. In six quarters he is 17-43 for 130 yards, no TD's and no pick, though he has thrown a couple balls that could have been picks and a couple that could have been TD's if the receiver makes a play. Robinson won't throw over 200 yards against FSU in all probability no matter what the circumstance. Robinson is mobile, but not so mobile he's a game changer. He can't read coverages and hes pretty inaccurate.

But in the rain with FSU's defense over-pursuing like crazy, this running back playing QB could give FSU some trouble. I'd actually rather face Turner. I talked to the Va Tech guys and they said Robinson is extremely erratic. FSU is facing a less talented B.J. Daniels. Maryland has always run some option and they rep the option in practice so I think FSU is in for a heavy does of option. It would fit this kid's skill-set well.

Tough to evaluate this running back group cause of the bad O-Line. Da'Rel Scott, a first team all ACC guy should return from injury after missing the last five games. Hes our best runner. Hes averaging over 5 yards a carry when nobody else is over 4. He was fumbling the ball before he got hurt, so that could be an issue. The backups who played the last couple weeks were banged up themselves. They are not bad players they just don't have big holes to run through. Also with Jamar Robinson playing you can crowd the box, thus the RB's only got 7 carries against VT, the QB did most of the running (25 carries for 127 yards). Without a healthy Scott this group is pretty average. If they played with a good line they would get decent yardage, but they don't and aren't good enough to make things happen on their own. Scott put up big numbers earlier in the season, but in fairness to the other rb's, Scott played against a couple weaker defenses, (James Madison and MTSU) when he put up his numbers. Our fullback, Cory Jackson, might be the best blocking fullback in the ACC, but without an O-Line that only gets you so far.

Remember Dave Megget of the Giants? That's his son. A similarly fashioned scat back. Scott is not a receiving threat but Megget has good hands. If Maryland wants to use a fullback, that's fine by me. FSU will play 8 men in the box like they did last year early on.

This wide receiver group is talented. Torrey Smith, Adrian Cannon, and Ronnie Tyler the top 3 guys are all good. If Turner is the QB this group could cause your secondary problems. This group is probably in the top third of the ACC. If we had a good O-Line or a run game to balance the pass, UMD could put up big passing numbers with these guys. Torrey Smith is a sophomore but probably has a future in the NFL. He broke the ACC KO return yards as a freshman and broke that record this year and has put up very solid receiving numbers. Smith has soft hands, good cutting ability, and low 4.4 speed. Adrian Cannon is a good possession WR. He runs around a 4.6 so not a deep threat that can stretch the field vertically, but hes got a thick body and very strong hands. Hes good after the catch, okay elusiveness and is strong and will break a lot of tackles by db's. Tyler is the slot, short at 5'9, hes an explosive athlete that is a good college receiver.

I agree with Phillip here. FSU CB Patrick Robinson, one of the best corners in the nation and a likely first round choice should be able to limit Smith. Jenijie should be okay against the other their #2. Maryland doesn't have a tight end who catches a lot of balls, so that is a plus.

I would say the worst O-Line in the ACC by quite a bit. We struggle to pass block and we struggle to run block. Its not clear which we are worst at. Occasionally they will have a good series or two, but this O-Line has yet to really put together an entire game, so FSU doesn't have much to worry about. The O-Line started out young and inexperienced and has been exacerbated by injuries. Bruce Campbell the best O-Lineman is playing pretty hurt. Due to injuries 9 different guys have gotten starts this year on the line and another has played significantly. Your D-Line will have its best game.

This is true. Maryland's offensive line is highly questionable. Campbell is actually a tremendous talent at left tackle, but as Phillip said, he's been injured. Last year Maryland was one of a few teams to not double team Everette Brown and Brown absolutely abused the Terps. They have struggled with quick rush ends so far this year and as Phillip said, FSU might have a good day. I don't think he understands just how poor FSU's defense is, however, so don't get too excited, 'Nole fans.

Maryland runs a pro-style offense. It's West coast based. They typically man block, not zone block (FSU zone blocks). If I was running Maryland's offense, I would probably use 3 wide receivers and two running backs, mixing in a lot of option looks for the young quarterback who is basically a running back under center. The rain probably plays to Maryland's advantage if they elect to run some of the zone-read plays we've come accustomed to seeing teams run against Florida State, often with great success. It's one thing to overrun a play. It's another to overrun a play in the rain and be unable to recover in time. I expect FSU to run more of the cover-2 stuff they ran against Wake Forest. This should help because it allows FSU to keep all 11 eyes on the "quarterback". It also will force the quarterback to work with his receivers. FSU did not do this well against USF, and pair dearly for it via two bombs and multiple scrambles. Playing an excess of man coverage in this game is a poor choice. Maryland has some good skill guys and if FSU lets them play street ball, this could be interesting. Against Zone, receivers must sit down in the voids, and the quarterback must recognize where these voids will be and throw the ball to the spot. I do not think Maryland's guy under center can do that consistently. FSU must make him do things at which he is not comfortable, and not allow him to hit the high-risk, high-reward stuff. A good cover-2 or cover-3 zone can help with this. In addition, FSU should refrain from excessive blitzing. If there is any offensive line that FSU's defensive line can get pressure against, it is this group. Maryland won't consistently beat a conservative FSU defense, but they could beat an aggressive FSU defense. They have a veteran center who can make the calls and FSU's schemes aren't fooling anyone. It's best to be very conservative, contain Robinson, and let him make mistakes. I worry about this because it is defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews' last game. Will the players be too hyped up to play good assignment football? I don't know.

Working off a 68 play projection (about average), I expect Maryland to put up about 5.5 yards per play. That's 375 yards. 24 points seems reasonable. I'll go with that. Can FSU top that? Continue reading to see.

Maryland Defense @ Florida State Offense

The Terps defense is not as bad as their offense.

From their media guide:

They've actually been sort of solid on defense for most of the conference season (Cal housed them 52-13), though they struggled aginst the Hokies last week. They are allowing an average of 113 rushing yards per game (second in league play). LBs Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten have been the top playmakers on a defense which has just four starters back from last year. Wujciak, a second-team All-ACC selection last year, has a team-high 113 tackles, including 11 vs. Virginia Tech last week. Moten has 58 tackles (second on the team), including team highs in tackles-for-loss (8.5) and sacks (6.0). Freshman LB Demetrius Hartsfield, was the third-leading tackler until he broke his hand and missed two games. He was back in action last week. First-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has a veteran secondary, though there have been injuries at that position. Senior Nolan Carroll, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, was lost for the season vs. JMU with a broken tibia. Senior SS Jamari McCollough missed two games with a foot injury and played sparingly the following two weeks. Top safety reserve Kenny Tate sprained an ankle last week and will miss the rest of the season. CB Anthony Wiseman has a team-high eight PBUs and CB Cameron Chism has a team-best three interceptions. Seniors Travis Ivey, Jared Harrell and Deege Galt are veterans on the defensive line. The Terps are tied for second in the ACC in sacks (2.5 per game).

As you can see (click to enlarge), Maryland's defense is 69th. NC State is the worst defense FSU has faced this year. But Maryland is on par with BYU, and definitely worse than Wake Forest.

As for Florida State's offense? Click to go full-screen and you'll see FSU sits at 5th in the country. This is an elite unit.

Maryland has faced the #9 rated NC State attack. Without Ponder, I believe FSU's offense is probably top 25 but definitely not top 5. These ratings reflect performance to date. They can't account for the future impact of injuries. They also played Va Tech, who like NCST, also put 35+ on them. #27 rated Wake Forest put 30+ on these guys. But I don't remember any of those teams playing in a downpour.

Maryland Depth Chart

DE 57 Jared Harrell 6-5 265 Sr.-1V or 44 Derek Drummond 6-4 250 So.-1V
NT 96 A.J. Francis 6-5 315 Fr.-RS
DT 90 Travis Ivey 6-4 325 Sr.-2V
Anchor (DE) 56 Deege Galt 6-4 264 Sr.-SQ
SAM 54 Adrian Moten 6-2 230 Jr.-2V
MIKE 33 Alex Wujciak 6-3 255 Jr.-1V
WILL 42 Ben Pooler 6-3 235 So.-SQ or 59 Demetrius Hartsfield 6-2 230 Fr.-RS
CB 6 Anthony Wiseman 5-10 185 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
FS 1 Terrell Skinner 6-3 214 Sr.-3V (Starter lost for year)
SS 4 Jamari McCollough 5-11 200 Sr.-1V
CB 22 Cameron Chism 6-0 185 So.-1V

FSU Depth Chart

WR 80 Jarmon Fortson 6-3, 223, SO & 9 Richard Goodman 6-0, 190, SR
LT 67 Andrew Datko 6-6, 283, SO
LG 57 Brandon Davis 6-2, 281, JR (Replacing AA Rodney Hudson)
C 60 Ryan McMahon 6-3, 282, JR
RG 79 David Spurlock 6-5, 285, SO
RT 77 Zebrie Sanders 6-5, 288, SO
TE 88 Beau Reliford 6-7, 241, SO (Starter Caz Piurowski lost for year)
QB 3 EJ Manuel 6-4, 223, FR (Starter Christian Ponder lost for year)
FB 24 Lonnie Pryor 6-1, 195, FR
TB 38 Jermaine Thomas 6-1, 190, SO & 23 Chris Thompson 5-8, 173, FR
WR 86 Rod Owens 6-0, 183, SR & 83 Bert Reed 5-11, 165, SO & Taiwan Easterling

And FSU's Injury Report:

Out
76 OT Garrett Faircloth (hip)
70 OT Antwane Greenlee (knee)
51 LB Aaron Gresham (knee) (For career)
44 LB Maurice Harris (neck; out for the season)
62 OG Rodney Hudson (knee)
97 DT Demonte McAllister (knee)
94 DT Justin Mincey (knee)
81 TE Caz Piurowski (knee; out for the season)
7 QB Christian Ponder (shoulder; out for the season)
74 OT John Prior (knee)
27 CB Xavier Rhodes (thumb)
11 LB Vince Williams (back)

Questionable
9 WR Richard Goodman (groin)
Mister Alexander is also banged up but FSU didn't list him.

Let's see what Phillip has to say about Maryland's defense.

Probably the worst in the ACC. The DT's are so-so, maybe the 7 or 8th best group in the ACC as far as DT's go. The DE's are awful. The rush end position (Harrell and Drummond) has yet to record a sack this season after 10 games. This group generates no initial pass rush. The strongside DE (Deege Galt) is a 100% effort type player and got a couple sacks by continuing to work and getting a sack after the play broke down, but this group is really awful. Our DE's are by far the worst in the ACC from what I have seen at generating pass rush. The DT's don't help with pass rush. They use a three man rotation of guys weighing 330, 325, 310 (Ivery, Kerr, Francis) so they are okay agianst the run, teams have not really gash us by running right at us, but they contribute nothing to a pass rush. Therefore you have four guys totally not capable of getting any pass rush. The D-Line is serviceable against the run, but you want to be more than serviceable when that is the strength of the unit.

I think he's pessimistic here. These guys actually do a decent job stopping the run. They are massive inside and have good but not great size on the outside. He is right though about their pass rush ability. Maryland's pass rush from the front-4 is just not there. In addition, FSU's offensive line is excellent in pass protection. I do have some concerns about Davis working together with the other guys picking up the blitz. Speaking of blitz...

LB: A solid, but not great unit. At MLB, 255 Alex Wujciak is big and strong and good in run defense. Hes not very agile or fast so you can pass on him, though he has improed his awareness there a little. Still, his pass coverage is the type thing that Jimbo will take advantage of. With Ponder you would have burned us like crazy passing over the middle with him cause Ponder is accurate. Wujciak is not fast or agile, buts aware and he took an inaccurate pass by Russell Wilson to the hosue on a 70 yard interception return the other week. Still hes probably one of the slowest MLB in the ACC if not the slowest. He leads the ACC in tackles and is fourth in the nation. Its hard to run against him cause he can off blocks well even if you get a O-Lineman to him cause of his size and strength. Running up the middle against us is maybe do-able, but with so many other weaknesses, teams don't even really bother to try. Adrian Moten one of the OLB's is very verstaile. Hes solid in pass coverage, blitzing, and against the run, but is not great at any of them. He leads the team with 6 sacks. I see him in the NFL eventually, not necessarily as a high pick, simply cause at the least he would make a good backup because hes no real weakness. Hes also a vocal leader of the D. The third LB is Demetrius Hartsfield a RS freshman. Hes got solid quickness and average straight line speed, and like a lot of freshman is inconsistent. At times he shows good instincts and an aggressive instinct that makes him effective. Other times he looks lost. As the season went on he got a little bit more consistent, his worst games as far as missed assignments were his first. FSU will be his second game back from injury after missing three games.

Moten is undersized and doesn't do a great job of getting off blocks. Otherwise, I agree with this. FSU has a very good run game that has been steadily improving since Rick Trickett took over the running back coaching duties. The backs now understand what hole to run through, an important part of being a running back.

The DB's are average to below average which is a surprise as many fans expected them to be good. We lost our top corner, Nolan Carroll, in the second game of the season. That hurt a lot. Sophomore Cameron Chism may have NFL talent but hes still learning the ropes. He's very good when the ball is in the air, has three picks, and is excellent in run help. That said he gives up some big plays and is susceptible to double moves and the like at this stage in his career (hes a true soph. who only played special teams last year). Wiseman the other corner is one of the worst starting cb's in the ACC. A three year starter who never has gotten an interception, hes a bad tackler, who is really bad when the ball is in the air. Hes is very suspectible to the long ball. Against the short ball, like slants, hes okay and will get some pass breakups, but hes such a bad tackler thats hes still not great there becaue those missed tackles turn into 40 yard players. The third and fourth corners, Richad Taylor and Trenton Hughes are about what you expect from backup corners. I think they are both slightly better than Wiseman, but there is inertia with returning starters and they are not that much better anyways. At S, we just lost Kenny Tate for the season at SS. With McCollough, who will be the strong safety agianst FSU, you got a saavy player capable in pass coverage, but not great in run help. At free safety you have Terrell Skinner, who had had a better junior year than senior year so far, except for the fact hes had his best two games of the season the past couple weeks so he may be coming on.

I have nothing to add to that. A huge thanks to Phillip for his help!

I watched a bit of Maryland this week. They blitz a lot. I feel bad for this defense. They get no pass rush, so they are forced to blitz. But their secondary has really struggled due to losing two starters and just generally not having a ton of talent. They are hurting either way.

So, how to attack Maryland's defense? We know that their front can't rush the passer but is very big. And we know that their best linebacker is a liability in coverage. They love to blitz. And we also know that they are incredibly thin on the secondary. So, how would you attack this?

I would spread them out and pass on early downs. This puts pressure on already thin secondary. It will tire out their big defensive tackles who certainly don't want to rush the passer. It will stress their excellent linebacker who is sort of a stiff. There is no reason to run right at Maryland, especially not without Rodney Hudson. FSU needs to run at the edges and attack the undersized outside linebackers or defensive backs. By throwing on 1st down, FSU can keep Maryland off balance. The bubble-screen game could play big in this contest. Anything to simplify the reads for freshman QB E.J. Manuel. Most teams don't blitz much on 1st down, making it an ideal down to throw on because of the added time in the pocket. Also, many teams are reluctant to blitz the spread because the blitz comes from a greater distance than against a traditional formation, thus taking longer to get there, being more readily identifiable, and affording the offense more time to react.

But undoubtedly Maryland will have some success with the blitz. I doubt Manuel stays clean in this game. But I do think he can hit a big play or two, interspersed with some less than desirable plays. I don't think FSU can run quite like they did against Wake Forest. FSU must pick up the blitz. And if Maryland goes a little more conservative, then Manuel needs to be in sync with the receivers.

Assuming FSU gets 68 plays, I think they can average about 6.75 per snap. That comes out to 460 yards. I like FSU to score 40 points. And to be clear, I definitely think rain is a disadvantage for the 'Noles here.

FSU 40, Maryland 24 Maryland is the worst team FSU has faced to date, and though I expect Manuel to look rough at times, I will still project the big win.

Chance of Victory: 88% (the exact percentage I predicted before the season).

Florida State vs. Maryland: The Final Score and Why I Want To Go Bowling

FrankDNole — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:16:55 -0000

I thought this might be a good time to resurrect what was once a weekly series that I started at the beginning of this football season with an optimistic viewpoint, which was known as "THE FINAL SCORE," probably for the last time this year. This was the weekly prediction column that I mercifully killed due to the fact that everyone pretty much knew what was going to happen after the ball was kicked off on any given Saturday.

Since this upcoming game should be our easiest challenge this season, I thought I would give our self-proclaimed expert staff here at Tomahawk Nation, probably their last opportunity to match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against the wild guesses of you, the TN members.

This game against Maryland, while it may be our easiest challenge this year, IMO may very well be the most important must-win for the Seminole's in decade's, for the following reasons.

A) A win will keep alive our nation leading streak of 27 consecutive bowl appearances. This is very important to me, and I think it should be important to every Seminole, despite some differences of opinions on this subject which I will address shortly.

2) It will be Senior Day and the last home game for the 17 seniors who endured less than desirable coaching for their entire time in Tallahassee on the defensive side of the ball, and for all but the last 2.8 years on the offensive side. These are the seniors who will be playing their last game on Saturday;

Zach Aronson, Louis Givens, Richard Goodman, Korey Mangum, Kevin McNeil, Justin Mincey, Daniel Parvin, Caz Piurowski, Jamie Robinson, Patrick Robinson, Kendrick Stewart, Jeff Taccetta, Budd Thacker, Jeremiah Thompson and Recardo Wright.

D) It will be the last home game for one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time, Mickey Andrews, after a 26 year career building one defensive juggernaut after another. Since we, as well as all the other media, have already written at length about MA, I would just like to add the following:

Thank you Mickey for your loyalty to our program. I truly believe without you and your terrific defenses, we may still be seeking our first NC. And especially thank you for coming back these last 2 years, even though you did not really want to, to save us from the alternative.

I only hope that the FSU administration and athletic department do Mickey right in his finale, and not put on a half-assed dog and pony show similar to the joke of a presentation they recently put on to honor the 1999 National Championship FSU team.

VII) While the consensus has changed dramatically during the past week or so, this could possibly also be Bobby Bowden's last game as coach at Doak. This is not the forum to discuss Bowden and the pro's and con's of his tenure, but even if it is his last home game, I am sure there will be tributes to him next year, and I would like to thank him for dedicating the majority of his life to helping shape FSU's legacy.

Green) While this may truly be a stretch, a win on Saturday would also move the Seminoles another step closer to extending their nation-leading streak of consecutive winning seasons to 33.

On Saturday, our Noles will be playing the last home game of the season against the Maryland Terrapins. (Terrapin defined: any of various edible North American web-footed turtles living in fresh or brackish water).

As always, I expect our Nole's to give a relentless, non-stop, fast and furious, three hour pounding, to the turtles from Maryland, which will undoubtedly leave them with a surprised look on their faces, which can probably be best demonstrated as:

(Another attempt on my part to bring culture, class, and to educate the readers of this site with topical works of art)

Before getting to the predictions, I would like to take this opportunity to discuss my reasons for wanting to go to a bowl game once again this year, which we will be eligible for after we molest the turtles. I am only bringing this up because several authors and members, up until our win over Wake Forest it seems, had expressed their opinions and reasons why it would be in FSU's best interest if we did not go to a bowl game this year. Make no mistake, there is some logic to the reasons they give, which by now we all know ad-nauseum.

So I am going to reprint a comment I made recently in response to the following statement. Keep in mind this statement was made before the Wake game, when the bowl possibility looked bleak, at which time most of the authors and members predicted we would lose the game, except for a handful of glass half-full, kool-aid drinkers, myself included, who went on record as predicting a FSU win over Wake.

Does FSU really want to make a bowl game? Personally, I don’t give a damn about bowl games. I want to compete for championships. Caring about silly stuff like wins records and bowl streaks got FSU to where it currently is. Rooting for your team to miss a bowl game can be seeing the forest from the trees.

Here was my reply to that statement at the time, which I think best expresses my strong belief in the importance of us continuing our bowl streak.

I agree that we should be competing for championships. No debate there. However,

A) Wins, records, and streaks are what made FSU a national powerhouse and helped us achieve our 14 year dynasty, but I don’t think that has anything to do with where our program currently is. The only common denominator is Bowden wanting 400 wins and the most wins records, but his hiring decisions are what caused us to be where we are today. I would be OK leaving him in Tally while the rest of the team travels, but that is not a option.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

2) A bowl, no matter how insignificant, is a reward for the players who have been working their asses off for the past 9 months trying to bring FSU back into prominence. It is a thank you to the players for the effort. F*ck the coaches. I want a bowl to thank the players for their contributions to our program despite the fact that our season sucked. I want a bowl so that the younger players know what they need to do to go to a better bowl next year. IMO, they deserve to go to a bowl and play, instead of watching teams that we should have been better than, and that we should have beaten, on TV over the holidays. There is no down side to going to a bowl and it will probably not cost us any money when you subtract the expenses from the payout. The extra practice time, while it may not do anything for the D, will not hurt either side of the ball and can only help.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

D) Most of the Defensive coaches we are considering hiring will be playing in bowls. While there is a month where we can interview and negotiate behind closed doors with their agents, MOST of these coaches would not be able to step foot on campus until after the first week in Jan at the earliest due to their bowls and the holidays.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

VII) While it may not mean much to you and others, I want to keep the bowl streak alive and going on 28 because that is really all we have at this time, and probably just as important, I don’t want the f*cking gaturds to have any chance of getting it. I think we will continue going to bowls every year in the future under Jimbo and with the relative ease it is to get into a bowl nowadays, there is no reason we can’t maintain this streak for a long time to come.
Therefore, no negatives, IMO.

玖) I don’t want a losing season. Again, screw Bowden. I don’t want FSU to have a losing season on the books, as a alumni and as one that bleeds G & G.

Obviously a win over the Maryland will make all of this a moot point. Nevertheless, I just wanted to share my thoughts on why a bowl game this year should be important to all of us who love the Noles, and from my personal POV.

***PLEASE HIT THE JUMP TO CONTINUE READING***

Here are some fun facts about this weeks match-up against the Maryland Turtles.

-FSU leads the series 17-2.

-Florida State enters the game ranked second in the ACC in total offense at 437.8 yards per game (294.1 yards
passing and 143.7 yards rushing).

-The 2009 FSU offense is gaining more yards per game than Florida State’s 1999 National Championship team that finished with a perfect 12-0 record.

-The 2009 Seminoles offense is the fourth most prolific in terms of total offense since the 1995 season.

-FSU's offense has gained at least 400 yards of total offense in eight of 10 games and surpassed the 500-yard mark three times this season.

-Jermaine Thomas is the first Seminole runner since former great Greg Jones (during the 2001 and 2002
seasons) to rush for 100 yards or more in three consecutive games.

-Bert Reed has caught 51 passes for 565 yards.

-Senior Rod Owens has caught 48 passes for 600 yards.

-Reed and Owens are looking to become only the second pair of receivers in school history to both catch at least 60 passes in the same season. They are looking to join the duo of Andre Cooper (71receptions) and E.G. Green (60 receptions) who both caught at least 60 passes during the 1995 season.

-Five of Florida State’s wide receivers – Bert Reed (51), Rod Owens(48), Jarmon Fortson (32), Taiwan Easterling (29) and Richard Goodman (27) – all have at least 20 receptions through the first 10 games. It marks the first time since the 1992 season that five FSU wide receivers have had 20 or more receptions in one season.

-FSU's tight ends, Caz and Beau, have caught four touchdown passes in the first nine games. They have more touchdown catches this season than our tight ends have had in the past five seasons combined (three).

-The FSU defense has 13 picks this season. The Nole's have more interceptions this season (13) than they did last season (nine) and Ochuko Jenije leads the team with four int's. FSU’s defense has at least one interception in each of the last four games and in seven of its 10 games this season.

-Greg Reid's punt return for a touchdown was the first since Tony Carter's against W. Carolina on Sept. 6, 2008, and the first time since the 1995 season that a true freshman had returned a punt for a touchdown.

-Shawn Powell is doing an outstanding job punting, while averaging 41.1 yards on 18 punts.

-Dustin Hopkins has booted 36 percent (21 of 59) kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks. He has kicked at least one touchback in nine of 10 games and leads his nearest competitor in the ACC by eight. He has also made 26 consecutive PATs and is 10-of-12 on field goal attempts, including five-of seven from 40+ yards.

-In what was expected to be a year of regression for the special team's kicking unit, these 2 have done a spectacular job replacing Graham Gano(matic). If Hopkins is able to stay healthy, I see no reason why he won't be our next Groza winner in the next few years.

OK enough of the fluff, let's get on to the predictions of our illustrious staff that you have been clamoring for.

So far this week it is almost a unanimous decision that FSU will win from those staffers that have already replied. Almost all of us authors are officially kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, who we will call the GOOD GUYS.

Then we have on delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology as a means to an end, who we will call a BAD GUY.

And finally, there is MattDNole, with his, how can I say this delicately and with all the respect he truly deserves, a "different" perspective of reality, who we will call "DERANGED AND POSSIBLY IMPAIRED."

-The K-Man= FSU 38 - Turtles 27

-Ricobert1= FSU 37 - Turtles 17

-oline0175= M.I.A. and will be added when he snap's out of his self induced coma due to Hudson's injury.

-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - Turtles 24

-Fsued= M.I.A. and will be added when he leaves his other job at the National Weather Service.

-TrueCubbie= FSU 31 - Turtles 27

-pbysh= FSU 31 - Turtles 21

-NoleThruandThru= FSU 34 - Turtles 16

-Castauch= FSU 49 - Turtles 20

-DA2= FSU 37 - Turtles 24

-FSU44= FSU 41 - Turtles 35

-MissouriNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 21
-SWFLNole= FSU 60 - Turtles 3
-FSUSOM= FSU 83 - Turtles 73
-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - Turtles 24

Here we have the delusional author who is apparently trying to use reverse psychology

-Nattylite= Turtles 38 - FSU 35

And finally, there is the deranged and possibly impaired MattDNole with his "different" perspective of reality.
-MattDNole= FSU 387 to 80.

OK, I'll play along. Please Matt, enlighten us on why you picked this score.
"I was predicting Bobby's wins vs Bobby's age. The prediction article needs me more than I need the prediction article. You will have to print it, unless you have the guts not to."

Sounds like Matt has got the hots for Ann B. something fierce.

And FSUn= FSU 40 - Turtles 24 as per his Game Preview.

Looks like me and Bud are on the same page for this game. But then again, most of the scores are all in the same ballpark. We shall see who gets a shiny prize this time around. Will it be one of the authors, or one of the members?

Finally, to get you psyched for the game I will leave you with some more art to help you expand your horizons and to class up the joint. After all, nothing gets football fans more ready for a game than throwing babies, shaking off baby tacklers, and kicking field goals using babies.

Image removed due to NSFW complaints.

Click here to view image.

And a few different angles of the "surprised" Maryland Terrapin.

Florida State Football Performance Report 11.17.09

FSUncensored — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:43:29 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Jermaine Thomas (38) runs against Wake Forest during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009. Florida State won, 41-28. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Browse more photos »

Let's start out with something different for a moment. My best friend is serving in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Xerox is sponsoring a project that will send free cards to all of the soldiers. You can fill our your own personalized message and choose from 15 cards drawn by elementary school children across the united states. Here is the link for the project: http://www.LetsSayThanks.com/Home1024.html It takes less than a minute and you'll make a soldier's day.

Now for the offense. FSU went on scoring drives of 81, 79, 68, 68, 43, and 27 yards. 4 offensive touchdowns and 2 field goals. Get some, Wake Forest! Let's break down the offensive performance. As with all photos here, click them to enlarge.

7.2 yards per play is outstanding. In a normal game where FSU gets 70 plays, that's 500+ yard pace. Excellent job EJ. And the gameplan was ridiculously simple. FSU ran some version of the Veer 9 times. Don't tell anyone, but that's basically UF's offense. When they threw the ball it was a screen or a crossing route. I counted 5 passes that traveled more than 8 yards downfield. E.J. Manuel managed the game well and did exactly what FSU asked him to do.

Inside we have more charts, recaps of the press conferences, and highlight videos!

Want to settle your QB down and let him have a nice day? Own 1st down. And that's exactly what FSU did. Of 30 1st down plays, FSU only had two for 20+ yards, but they were successful a superb 53% of the time, and were only held to 1 or fewer yards on 6 of 30 1st down plays. Of those 16 successes, 10 of them were accomplished via Jermaine Thomas. That's important because we're dealing with a young quarterback.

Mmmmm The best offense in the conference kept on hummin'. And there's no scheduling quirk here. FSU has faced 7 of the conference's best 9 defenses.

Oh, and Jeff Cameron of 1270TheTeam Sports Radio had Jimbo Fisher on with him yesterday. Have a listen.

As for individual player breakdowns, I thought the right side of the offensive line did a tremendous job. That's guard David Spurlock and Tackle Zebrie Sanders. This offensive line is already very good, but they might be incredible next year. I really think they surprise teams, and especially opposing linebackers, with their quickness. It messes up the angles opposing backers must take. Ryan McMahon was his usual solid self. He doesn't dominate but he does what we ask him to. Rodney Hudson, until he got injured (and they are expected to hold him out until the UF game with his mild knee sprain), looked good. And maybe most impressive because of his injury was Andrew Datko (separated shoulder). I thought he did a great job and a shoulder injury is not all that easy to play with.

As for the backs. Thomas ran hard and was decisive. He made the right cuts almost all of the time. Ty Jones was not impressive at all. Anyone could have run through those huge holes.

My player of the game might be Rod Owens. He blocked his butt off and also ran some great rotues for Manuel. Twice on 3rd downs, Manuel was very late making his read and Owens slowed down knowing he could get killed but wanting to give his QB an open target. A big +1 for Rod Owens! Bert Reed didn't screw around and got upfield quickly.

I like the idea of flipping the ball to Jarmon in space. It somewhat limits what coverages the opposition can play and he is an athletic freak.

Here's Jimbo's Notes from the press conference that I took down yesterday:

We had some complexity in the offense and we were fortunate to hit our plays when we called them. E.J. was doing the things that he needed to do. He executed the gameplan very well. Stayed in good down and distance, fortunate to have the plays be open (implying Wake's plan was dumb). No delay penalties. Changed protections, routes, etc.

Every play is from a family of plays so when the QB checks down they have to know what they are looking to attack. Jimbo teaches conceptually. What are we trying to attack. If we know it we can change on the fly. Harder to learn at first but better in the long run.

E.J. and Christian both understand the concepts of football and I think this is the reason they pick things up so quickly.

These are good emotions this week. They have great futures ahead of them. We do have some upper classmen who have grown up and they will go off the right way.

Never had this small of a senior class before. FSU loses only Goodman, Piurowski, and Owens, to graduation (on offense).

E.J. has a lot of instincts to play football. Jermain Thomas did a nice job to help E.J. with the pitches by being where he needed to be. Did a great job of maintaining the pitch relationship.

You have to have the dependability of a running back who adds the dimension of a consistent running back.

Tavares Pressley could see some PT this week.

Brandon Davis did a nice job coming in for Rodney

I think the whole group (WR's) played the best game they have from blocking to running routes.

Jarmon Fortson doesn't realize how much time this game really takes. I am not down on him but he can get to another level of greatness if he gets all of the details. I am really looking forward to seeing how he progresses. (Jimbo challenges Fortson every week.

Maryland blitzes like crazy and they are hard to prepare for." "They do it all." "As tough to prepare for in terms of blitzing as anyone we have played. This could be a game where we mix incompletes with big plays because of the blitz. When you blitz the YAC yards, yards after catch are there to be made then our receivers have to make plays. I thin Joe Montana did a very good job of getting his receivers the ball where each of them needed it. E.J. will understand the concepts but he will need to put in a lot of study time this week.

I told E.J. the other day that Christian had a lot of success each week because he prepared for every game the same way. E.J. has had some success now he just needs to play the game. This is bigger than anyone who has ever been involved with it. E.J. is very self motivated and I tell him that the hardest job in football is being the backup QB. He did a great job and he prepared to play and it showed. If you think I am waiting and not going to play is not the way to prepare for a game. E.J. and Christian are very similar in a lot of ways."

We are looking forward to having Chris Thompson back this week." (Thompson's grandfather passed away and they had a close relationship.)

If good enough is ever good enough then we have a problem. "Good enough is never good enough to me."

Fisher then talked about a question regarding the running game not being as good as people expected. Said a lot of that run game went from the QB's legs to the qb's arm. I think people were shocked to see that we could throw as well as we did this year. I want to see how efficient we are on each play. Pass blocking has been much better this year than we were a year ago. "I don’t care how many yards we run or throw for, I care about how efficient are we each play."

Receivers are getting into their routes better, breaking them off better, catching it better. We are making quick decisions. Everything on offense is doing better.

Jimbo smirked when told this offense is the best since 2000, then said he wasn’t aware of that. Said he is much more comfortable as a playcaller.

We are learning to play with more consistency.

We are getting better but I still think we leave a lot out there. Not just yards but more great runs, more great throws, more great catches.

When things aren't just like you coach them up these guys are making the adjustments to keep the play moving and that is a good sign.

Fisher said when he is going through grading the offense, there are consistent pluses rather than a big play then a minus.

On Mickey Andrews: I don’t know if anybody played any better defense during any time during any era of college football than during Mickey’s 20 years. Until you are a great defensive team you’re not a great team. Defense keeps you in games. FSU used to win 41-39 until Mickey got here. Nobody’s legacy is above Mickey Andrews. How would you attack a mickey andrews defense? had to be balanced, had to recruit a lot better "I mean they rattatattattd them now I tell ya. (fsu hitting weurffel)"

Then he talked for a while about how having big hands and long arms helps in play-action.

On Goodman- trying to get him back.

Owens, EJ, and Jermaine players of the game. Owens had some great blocks and showed great patience in his routes. Great feel for that.

On Greg Reid returning punts and not kicks… not sure, said Pat is good too. (It's not his call)

Can’t afford to lose Cas, Christian, Rich, Rodney, but we have to have other guys step up. give someone else the chance to be a hero. guys keep stepping up keep competing keep battling great traits for the future

We are recruiting guys to fit our mold and practicing better than before. Then (2007) they were memorizing plays now they get the concepts to what you teach which allows you to make adjustments. the older guys never got that and it was unfair to ask them to get it.

The Streak Is Over!

Our regular readers know that we had been tracking a rather embarrassing streak. Florida State's defense had allowed every opponent to post their best offensive game of the season in either Points, Total Yards, or the most important measure of performance, Yards-Per-Play. That is no longer the case. FSU held Wake Forest to only their 3rd best offensive performance of the year. Now, don't get too excited. Wake still gained 20% more than they had been averaging in conference games. Also, the streak would have come to an end thanks to UNC finally cracking the 5 yards-per-play barrier against someone (Miami, haha), and Clemson racking up an insane performance against NC State, both of which pushed FSU's defensive efforts down some.

For more on that Clemson game, which should make you feel a bit better about losing to those guys (they are a top 10 team this year, bank it), go here Clemson - NC State film review - Shakin The Southland. Also, want a fun stat? Sure you do. Miami's Jacory Harris leads the country in interceptions. And before Miami fans feed you some tired line about how their offense throws for more yards per pass and are thus more likely to throw an INT, don't believe it. Miami is 4th in conference in yards per pass, behind FSU, a team that doesn't try to go deep on every play.

Let's go comprehensive on the game:

Where did FSU succeed on defense? They used a variety of run blitzes on 1st down. Sometimes they worked and Wake was stopped for 1 or fewer yards. Other times they didn't and FSU was in the wrong gaps and hit for a big gain. Andrews talked about this some in his press conference.

I thought Kevin McNiel played better. Perhaps he is now in shape. Everette Dawkins played a very nice game from what I saw (#93).

FSU is definitely playing more zone defense now and they played it well on Saturday. Mangum is not as bad covering half a field as he is covering a whole field.

Our backers still do not read their keys and I'm not sure they know them. Chuck Amato is a horrible coach. Really puzzled as to why Wake didn't run more misdirection. I like Nigel Carr's energy. Bradham is progressing slower than I'd like but he is coming around.

Upon watching again, we did have some guys running free in the secondary who were not accounted for and that is a problem. Skinner just didn't hit them.

Andrews said it was a team game. Everyone pitched in.

Aays they won 1st down and aoccomplished the goal (didn't state the goal)

3rd and long did not win (we might have forced more, it's a step in the right direction)

How many yards did they make after contact? few longballs but lots of short plays that went long. (We played a lot of cover-2)

4th down not good, (but honestly, those are 4th and short’s, it's not a big deal)

Happy he didn’t have to face skinner again and they didn’t win 4 in a row

When they pull, it creates a new gap, you have to maintain gap integrity and re-adjust your leverage. (Mickey is right here, FSU did not go a good job of this. Said they got 100+ yards doing this).

Mickey said they are only doing the ceremony stuff because they were asked. (He is incredible humble)

When you’re a committed football coach, sometimes you have to do things you don’t wanna do, even when your priorities should be elsewhere, like if your family needs you. (Mickey clearly hinting that he was begged to come back but probably shouldn't be here). Thanks to Mickey for 25+ great years.

Greg reid has come along and been rewarded with more PT.

Mickey really looks better today, seems happy.

Highlight Videos!

Jimbo Fisher Gets Freshman QB EJ Manuel Ready as 'Noles Stomp Wake Forest 41-28

FSUncensored — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:24:09 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

Freshman QB E.J. Manuel did everything asked of him in leading the Seminoles to a 41-28 win. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon, File)

Browse more photos »

Not many expected much from Florida State without their all-star quarterback Christian Ponder as the 'Noles rode into Wake Forest to face the Deacons on senior day. But the 'Noles offense didn't skip a beat. Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher got redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel ready to go. Fisher gave the freshman safe throws and some designed runs to ease him into the game. Manuel played well and didn't try to do too much. Importantly, he didn't have any bone-headed fumbles or dumb throws into the flat. His play-fakes were exceptional as Fisher called bootleg after bootleg. Wake's defense bought the fake repeatedly, especially in the first half, and Manuel completed multiple safe throws. He got the ball to his playmakers in spacem and they made plays. It's not an official stat, but FSU's wideouts had a ton of yards after the catch as Manuel went 15-20 for 221 yards with 1 TD and 1 Interception.

And those play-fakes were largely effective because the 'Nole's sensational running game was dominant. The 'Nole's excellent offensive line paved the way for 226 yards on 40 carries, an average of 5.7 yards per carry. FSU milked the clock when they had the ball and were excellent on 3rd down because they rarely put themselves in 3rd-and-long situations. Sophomore running back Jermaine Thomas had 148 yards on 25 carries, a 5.9 average per rush. He scored one touchdown and did not fumble.

Florida State's offense put up 439 yards on 61 plays, an exceptional average of 7.2 per play. That mark was 10% better than anyone had put on Wake Forest. Florida State also became the first team to score 40 points on the Deacons. And those numbers are even a bit misleading, as Florida State was averaging 8.3 yards-per-snap of the ball midway through the 3rd quarter, a truly exceptional mark.

And for the first time this season, Florida State's defense helped out the offense. It was well publicized that the Seminole defense might have been the worst in the country. Going into this contest, they had allowed every opponent to post their season high in Points, Yards, or Yards-per-play:

But the defense forced two turnovers, and Wake did not obliterate their previous season highs. The Deacons 6.6 yards per play was close to their season best, but when an offense is rocking like FSU's, the defense just needs to avoid being horrible. Wake managed 454 yards on 69 plays, for 28 points. And with this year's unit, that is a win.

Florida State's special teams also pitched in in a big way. Freshman Greg Reid took a punt return back for a score to make the game 31-7, and freshman kicker Dustin Hopkins had 4 touchbacks on kickoffs. FSU did not allow Wake Forest to start a drive outside of their own 40 yard line. Making big plays and being solid in all the other areas makes for a winning special teams combination.

Florida State went from being favored to not make a bowl to now being favored to make a bowl game. A win over Maryland will do it for the 'Noles.

The Preview: Florida State @ Wake Forest

FSUncensored — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:17:30 -0000

via www.collegesportspro.com

View full size photo »

Ok, here we go. Wake Forest has lost 4 straight ballgames. FSU just got worked by Clemson. Wake Forest just had to play Georgia Tech, and teams often struggle on defense after playing Tech, probably because of the cut blocks. Florida State just lost Christian Ponder. In his place will be Red-shirt Freshman E.J. Manuel. Both teams must have this ballgame if they want to make a bowl. Wake is staging a blackout for this game. This game is at noon. Yes, a noon blackout. You can't really make this stuff up. It's also senior day for Wake. If FSU loses this game, they will not go to a bowl, unless they pull an Appalachian-State level miracle.

Time: Noon, Eastern
TV: ESPNU
Line: Wake Forest -6
Weather: 55 degrees, light rain

Florida State Offense @ Wake Forest Defense

This is a truly interesting matchup. FSU has a very good offensive line and similarly talented wideouts. They have a good runner in Jermaine Thomas. And they had the best QB in the country in Christian Ponder. But now that QB is done. Their prized left tackle is banged up but will play, and WR Richard Goodman is still somewhat of a question mark.

Before we discuss FSU's offense any more, let's learn a bit about Wake's defense:

They're currently rated #35 in the country. So we're looking at a unit that it is decidedly worse than Miami, UNC, Clemson, and BC (side note here, how amazing is it that FSU's offense did what they did against the # 1, 3, 5, and 16 rated defenses?) But Wake's defense is definitely better than GTech, NC State, and BYU. Oh and its better than USF, who now looks just to have had one of their best games ever against FSU.

Here's Wake's Roster:

DE 55 Tristan Dorty 6-2 250 R-So.
NG 96 Boo Robinson 6-2 295 R-Sr.
DT 51 John Russell 6-4 280 R-Sr.
99 Michael Lockett 6-0 285 R-Sr.
DE 97 Kyle Wilber 6-5 230 R-So.
57 Gelo Orange 6-1 225 R-So.
SLB 26 Jonathan Jones 6-3 240 R-Sr.
MLB 52 Dominique Midgett 6-2 245 R-Sr.
WLB 46 Matt Woodlief 5-11 255 R-Jr.
CB 17 Brandon Ghee 6-0 190 R-Sr.
FS 4 Josh Bush 5-11 195 R-So.
SS 5 Cyhl Quarles 6-3 205 R-So.
CB 6 Kenny Okoro 6-0 190 R-Fr.

You might notice that one of their defensive ends weighs only 230lbs. That's tiny, and as I watched Wake on the games I found, they play their weakside defensive end in a stand-up position. Wake is essentially running a 3-4 defense more often than ever before. It will be very important for FSU to accurately declare the Mike linebacker for protection purposes.

As for this defense, the two defensive tackles are very good. Corner Brandon Ghee is also pretty good. Martin Rickman of BloggerSoDear.com, pointed out that Okoro is also good at the other corner spot, even for a redshirt freshman. Orange is a very quick linebacker off the edge and sometimes puts his hand down as well.

As I said, they are running a multiple-front defense this year and have run a decent bit of zone. I expect them to run all zone against E.J. Manuel. Why?

First, Manuel has good wheels. By running a zone, it will allow Wake to keep 11 eyes on Manuel should he elect to run. Additionally, running a zone means Wake doesn't need to devote a spy to Manuel. Additionally, they probably cannot stick with FSU's wideouts in man coverage, and Manuel has a cannon and can beat them deep if they go solo. Finally, they are going to make Maneul read zone coverage and deliver the ball accurately into the holes of the zone. That's where Manuel could have trouble. FSU doesn't run anything resembling a quality zone and I guarantee you the scout team doesn't run one well either. Wake knows this, and they are betting (correctly) that E.J. doesn't have the rapport with his wideouts that Ponder had. That's expected, as Ponder worked with these guys all the time.

Running the ball here will be huge. I expect FSU to run the ball from the gun and have some success. Remember I said Wake's defensive tackles are excellent. So FSU must try to get a draw there and win on the edge. FSU should be able to consistently block Wake's defensive ends and outside linebackers. Now, with Datko being hurt, that could be easier said than done, but if he's ineffective, I'd expect coach Trickett to insert someone else. The other reason FSU needs to stick with the run, outside of protecting their young quarterback, is to protect their awful defense. We saw Fisher do this last year when the offense really couldn't throw very well and instead they ate clock like crazy (remember NC State last year?).

I expect the offense to have some success, but Wake does play good but not great defense. We'll use the typical 67 play pace (about the average of how many plays a team gets). I'll go with 37 running plays for 167 yards (4.5 per carry), and 30 passing plays (including sacks) for 218 yards. That's 385 yards on 67 plays, or 5.7 yards per play. You might think that isn't very good, but consider that it is actually better than what Miami, Navy, Maryland, NC State, or BC managed. I think that adds up to 28 points, but points are a lot harder to predict than offensive performance, which is measured by yards per play. Inside, we'll look at the other side of the ball and give a final prediction.

Florida State's Defense @ Wake Forest's Offense

How good is Wake's offense? Let's go to the chart:

Ok, so their offense is 26th in the country, and they have been improving. They aren't as good as GTech, Miami, NC State, or BYU, but they are definitely better than BC, UNC, or USF. And FSU is facing them on the road.

Here's a chart I put together, compare what Wake did against similar opponents of FSU's schedule:

You might need to click it to enlarge. For reference, Clemson went for 4.9 per play against Miami, and Wake put up 6.5 per play. That's a huge difference when you extrapolate it over a whole game.

And schematically, Wake matches up tremendously with FSU. Their offense is made to take advantage of over-aggressive undisciplined defenses. In fact, this year they seem to be running a lot of spread-option type stuff. That will frustrate FSU. Additionally, they throw a ton of underneath routes and pick routes and dump-offs to the backs. Their O-Line is average, and their running game isn't tremendous. But senior QB Riley Skinner is pretty good and he knows how to beat this FSU defense. This is just a really poor match-up for FSU's defense. So I expect Wake to get about 65 plays. Of those, they'll have about 30 runs for 190 yards (6.3 per run) and 35 passes for 315 yards (including sacks, that's 9 yards per pass play). That's 505 yards of offense for Wake Forest on only 65 plays, which is 7.8 yards per play. Always tough to tell, but that comes out to 42 points in my book.

Final Prediction: Wake Forest 42, FSU 28. Chance of winning: 30%

Previewing the FSU Offense

DrB — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:07:43 -0000

More photos » by Phil Coale - AP

3 months ago: Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, center, yells at his offense during an NCAA college football game against Miami, Monday, Sept. 7, 2009, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Coale)

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Having been at LSU while Fisher ran the offense to the 2003 national championship, I'm pretty familiar with what he likes to run out there. He's always been able to develop his quarterback into at least a solid, and potentially great, player under his tutelage (JaMarcus Russell, Patrick Nix, Matt Mauck) and Christian Ponder might be the best pure athlete he's had at the position. Make no mistake, Ponder is the center of this offense and is the key to limit as best as possible.

The Fisher offensive system is a pro-style spread, in that sense its the same as Clemson's, but this is a catch-all term. It is a system that uses considerably less pre-snap motion and more personnel groupings than what Clemson does. It is more multiple in formations: I-formation, offset I, Ace, Jumbo Ace (2TE-1RB-2WR), 3/4 wide shotgun, pistol...with liberal use of the H-back or a 2nd TE. Its not a system that is designed to dink & dunk you in a West-Coast style like Miami, but attacks all levels of the defense. He always took what the defense gave: if they can run, he'll run it. They'll throw it deep, intermediate, and short. Fisher did not run quite as many screens at LSU in my recollection, but it has been developed into a heavier screen offense to keep pressure off Ponder and force the defense to make plays in space: 37 times so far this year of all types (bubbles, tunnels/jailbreaks, cracks, and regular). However, its been inconsistent at times, which has helped lead to their record being so poor. Still, its ranked 25th nationally and put up 443ypg.

FSU this year has still been more of a passing team. FSU is 9th in the country at 307 yards per game. Christian Ponder (6-3, 217, Jr) is 206-297 (69.4%) for 2,453 yards, 13 touchdowns and only three picks. If he misses a throw, he misses it where NOBODY can catch it. Picks will be at a premium this week. He's extremely intelligent with the football, and makes many audibles and checks himself at the line, without looking at Jimbo. Ponder has also rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns. He's not quite the runner so far that he's been in the past (hasnt had to be), and with bruised ribs and ankle, I'm not sure he'll run a zone read as much as Fisher would want to, after watching our film.

Their receivers catch more of their throws than Miami does, with 5 of them pulling in at least 25 receptions. Taiwan Easterling has been hot of late, but I believe Bert Reed and Rod Owens are the biggest threats.

Their running game, however, has been pretty average. Florida State is 74th in the NCAA and fifth in the ACC in rushing with 136.5 yards per game. FSU is a zone-blocking team, and run the same plays we do in that respect: inside zone, stretch/outside zones, shotgun/pistol zone plays and counters, with I-formation runs like the counter, iso and blast. Jermaine Thomas is the leading rusher but is a great receiver out of the backfield. They also run considerable play-action off of these, and run much more no-huddle than we have seen so far.

The OL is great at pass-blocking, even with 5-man protections, which in part has led to Ponder's decreased rushing and improved completion percentages, but Ponder doesnt hold onto the ball long. They handled UNC's front extremely well against the pass, and I would say, only given the superior talent and skills at LB for UNC, that their front 7 is better than Clemson's. On 42 passing plays, FSU allowed a sack on only 2 at UNC. If at any point you believe during this game that our DL isnt getting pressure, start counting seconds after the snap until Ponder gets rid of the ball. It wont be long. They are a bit small up front, but well coached and athletic. In run blocking, they are very average, probably due to their youth.

But, FSU has not faced a good secondary like Clemson sends out there. Our guys are faster, better coached, and more aggressive than UNC's. Now we'll look at a few of the plays you should see from FSU this weekend. From Kevin Steele:

Would you say they're pretty diverse with all the stuff they do on offense?

Steele: "Yeah. They're very multiple in their personnel groupings. They're multiple in their formation groupings. They've got the vertical passing game, the intermediate pass game, they throw a lot of screens and they create the two-back running game with the quarterback and tailback. They're about as diverse as you can get."

Does Christian Ponder remind you of any of the guys you've seen this year?

Steele: "No. He's a little bit different. He throws the ball like an NFL quarterback and runs it like a college option QB in the 70's and 80's, which is a rare thing now. He's a very gifted young man, very, very bright. I know him quite well."

"I recruited him, No. 1. I was in his home. I know what kind of young man he is. He's a bright person and has a lot of tenacity. He's very calm and has natural leadership qualities. He's a very special young man. He's what it's all about. I think he's working on his masters and he's just a junior. I wasn't working on my masters when I was a junior."

Is it hard to get to Ponder sometimes, given their quick passing game?

Steele: "You're not going to sack a quarterback when he throws 37 screens in four games. It's a rare occasion a quarterback is sacked on a screen. That's a another deal. You approach that totally different. When they go traditional, drop-back pass game, we have to do what we do, which is four-man rush, pressure and push the pocket in his lap and dial up the pressures when they need to be dialed up."

Who are some of the other guys that concern you other than Ponder?

Steele: "Their running back is a good player. He can hit the homerun. #38 can go the distance. No. 24 at fullback is a tailback. They can formation you with multiple tailbacks. The receivers, you have to know where No. 80 is. He's a big presence that makes big catches for them. No. 83 and 8 are the guys who are getting the reverses and the screens. Obviously you have to make sure you get those guys. The last couple of games for them, there has been a lot of tackling in space. They're going to get the ball in space, although they can and do throw it down the field effectively. A lot of that stuff is get the ball on the edge quickly with the bubble screen, reverses, option with the orbit over the top. If you tackle in space, you have a chance."

The Screen

-The screen is designed to do a few things: attack zone blitzes who give up something in underneath zones (nearly all zone blitzes are Cover 3), attack man coverage on blitzes, force the defense to tackle in open space, and, most importantly against Clemson, slow down the pass rush.

-Bubble screens: the slit or motion WR bubbles away from the QB, while the outside WR will come in to crack a slotman's defender to spring him. Some offenses will actually abort a running play and throw a bubble screen if the linebacker blitzes. The only players who make this judgment are the wide receivers and quarterback. The offensive linemen and backs actually go ahead and execute a running play.

-Jailbreak screen: WR comes in over the middle behind the linemen. It's called a jailbreak is because the offensive line releases automatically downfield to block, after chucking the DLinemen. The offensive tackle stays in and chops the DE to keep his hands down so that the ball can be thrown over the top of him. The offense uses a TE or wide receiver to go away from the line of scrimmage to pick the outside receiver's man.

-Crack screen: A killer against man coverage with a LB on the RB. In 4 wide shotgun, the slot WR would crack block the LB assigned to the back, while the outside WR would take an outside release vertically to draw his Corner away. The Nickelback or safety on the slot wouldnt recognize the play coming and wouldnt immediately pick up the back.

Theres no reason why you cant crack one side and run a bubble to the other, both are going to be high percentage passes. Then theres the usual screen play that sends a RB out with 2 OL in front of him. Usually a skilled DE can get off blocks and disrupt these plays by jumping/rushing into the throwing lanes, and with discipline can tell that the RB and OL are releasing and stop his rush to play the screen. Otherwise, there really is no trick to stopping a screen play for the defense.

Just hope you dont get caught in a blitz.

From Smartfootball, the bootleg play Jimbo ran against Miami.

The Smash pattern: A two-WR pattern where the inside/slot WR runs a 12 yd Corner route, and the outside receiver runs a 6yd hitch. Smash has become a go-to for attacking Cover 2 zone defenses, but also can attack man coverage. Against man to man defense to the short side of the field the depth of the corner route will be around 20 yards.

In this play, which worked to success against UNC, the QB has a simple progression read: 1. the Corner route, 2. the hitch, 3. underneath, keying the CB. If the cornerback sinks back to stop the corner route, throw the hitch; if he comes up for the hitch, corner route. In general, you take the corner route til the defense shifts to stop it.

In Cover 2, the CB usually takes a "flat" zone with safety help up top. He'll read both #1 and #2 to his side and gets sandwiched by both of these routes. If the corner comes up on the hitch, the outside WR will push to 6, turn inside, and work inside to the next zone hole. It puts pressure on the safety to that side to get over to cover the Corner route and if the defense "cheats" by telling him to shift over a few yards, then the middle of the field is open.

In combination with this pattern, the "divide concept" can be used. The safety may cheat over for the Smash, and the TE runs a skinny post down the middle. This way, the SS is caught in a pickle and must read the QB's eyes and be fast getting to whomever the ball is thrown to.

Here is the Double Smash against UNC.

To defend this, I think a defense must pattern-read or play great man/man defense. A possible 2nd adjustment is switching to Cover 3. Against man the corner route must be thrown well or its hard to hit because of the Safety/Nickel taking inside leverage on his receiver. However, it is not a CB on the slot WR, so it can give them a better matchup.

Pattern-reading is a technique used with matchup zone, which Clemson runs. Essentially, the defensive backs are taught all the possible combinations (patterns) an offense can run to each side of the field, based on the personnel grouping. It improves their instincts immensely. Once the defense recognizes Smash, they can react and make plays, and every pattern-read Cover 2 team will rep the Smash every day.

Looking at UNC, they are a blitz-happy Cover 1/2-Man under team like Clemson. They are ranked higher nationally, particularly against the run. FSU smashed them in the passing game. Clemson went to more matchup zone and less blitzing against Miami, and I expect that to occur Saturday night. Still, Miami put up 433 on us.

To defend against Ponder's ability to scramble, do not be surprised to see our usual Cover 1 "Robber" defense, where Maye will be, in effect, the spy watching Ponder and waiting for him. If our LBs and secondary have a good day, I think we can contain this offense well enough to win.

Other than the Miami game where you gave up a bunch of big plays, you haven't been troubled with that extensively this year.

Steele: "We've been pretty effective. I think we're in the top four or five teams in the country in allowed first downs. We're right at the 70-percent mark in getting off the field on third down, which that is the benchmark. We've done a good job of getting pressure on the QB. Our coverage has been good. Not since I've been coaching and one team had 80-something yards passing and another team had 25 and another team had 27 yards passing. Somebody out there is rushing the passer pretty good and somebody is matching those routes pretty good. Coach Harbison has done a good job of getting those guys in route recognition. (pattern reading)

"There are some things we have to keep getting better at. Every game will present its own problems. For example, you mentioned the TCU quarterback. The first time we saw that play was that day. It was very different. They ran it four times and he did a good job on it. We run it every week now in practice whether we see it or not. The first play of the game this week was the same play and I think it went for two yards. Sometimes you'll see things in this game you haven't seen before, because of all the pullers and motions and shifts. They're not going to go out there and do it perfect. If everybody's perfect, we wouldn't have a job."

(image credit goes to Smartfootball and vids to Tomahawk Nation)

Florida State's Offense Again Bails out Horrible Defense to Salvage Awful Homecoming Game over 'Pack, 45-42

FSUncensored — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 20:58:36 -0000

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Jermaine Thomas ran 20 times for 186 yards, as Florida State dealt N.C.State their worst defensive performance of the year. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

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It started with audible booing of Bobby Bowden at the homecoming pep rally. It continued as FSU fans nervously chuckled when Bowden obviously didn't know the names of FSU's captains. And it didn't end until the final play of the contest as FSU pulled out a 45-42 in what was otherwise an awful homecoming for Florida State. The announced crowd was much more (67,172), but to anyone watching on television, it was obvious that there were more than 25,000 empty seats. That's right, Bobby Bowden drew 50,000 people to his last homecoming game.

Box Score

A few fans held out hope that the defense would show up, but that hope had to be half hearted at best. As it has in every game this season, FSU's defense again allowed an opponent to post season highs in points, yards, or yards per play. Florida State allowed the Wolf Pack to reach their season high in all three categories! Yes, State's 42 points, 538 yards, and 7.9 yards per play (absurd) were all season highs for N.C. State. But that is par for the course for Florida State's 104th ranked defense (which is sure to drop even further). Florida State allowed touchdown drives of 80, 76, 80, 74, 80, and 38 yards. 'Pack Quarterback Russell Wilson was 20-31 for 349 yards, 5 Touchdowns and 2 Interceptions (both on end of half Hail Marys). That's an amazing 11.4 yards per throw. Florida State's defense did not force a meaningful turnover. Luckily for Florida State fans, they have at most 5 more games of this embarrassing "defense." And that is only if FSU makes a bowl game. FSU's defense isn't the worst in the country (Western Kentucky, a new D-1 team, is decidedly worse), but the 'Noles are close. Fortunately, the offense is not coached by a senior citizen more concerned with taking care of his grandkids than coaching the defense after the tragic death of his son two years ago. The offense is not coached by those who head Bowden has stubbornly insisted on keeping around like the incompetent saboteur linebacker coach Chuck Amato or inept defensive ends coach Jodey Allen. No, Florida State fans know that those coaches will be gone next year and the talented defense will have not continue to have the worst defensive coaching staff in the country.

In fact, if they look to the offensive side of the ball, they would see offensive coaches who work hard. Offensive coaches who are on top of the game, keeping up with an ever-changing industry. They demand more from their players, and those players trust them enough to give more. And that combination of talented players trusting hard working innovative coaches is working miracles. Jimbo Fisher and his offensive staff are single-handedly saving Florida State's program. Despite Bowden's every effort (or lack thereof) to cripple the program he supposedly loves, Fisher and Co. just will not let it die.

And so it was that Florida State's 4th rated offense would again have to bail out their 104th rated defense who was busy allowing the 'Pack's 26th rated offense to have its best day of the year. N.C. State's 52nd rated defense. And the 'Noles offense once again proved that they are one of the finest units in the country. 45 points, 555 yards, 7.6yards per play. The 'Noles were incredibly balanced, running for 267 yards and throwing for 268. FSU turned the ball over only once (they did throw 2 interceptions on tipped passes, but alert wide receiver Jarmon Fortson made up for a drop by stripping and recovering one of the interceptions).

And because Florida State's defense forced no turnovers except on desperation throws at the end of each half, FSU had to earn each touchdown. They did not start a possession in Wolfpack Territory. Florida State marched for scoring drives of 98, 68, 70, 60, 64, 55, and 66 yards. That's right, 7 scoring drives of 55+ yards. And Florida State controlled the clock with their balanced attack, rushing 33 times for 8.4 yards per carry. Sophomore Tailback Jermaine Thomas rushed 20 times for 186 yards and 2 scores. Florida State's offensive line was sensational in run blocking. They allowed only one tackle for loss. One! Their work blocking linebackers and defensive backs in space was sensational.

Quarterback Christian Ponder was injured early in the game but fought through his rib and ankle ailments to lead Florida State to victory. He was 26-40 for 277 yards, with 1 TD and 2 interceptions (both of which occurred on tipped passes on which an offensive lineman missed a block). He didn't throw any dangerous passes into traffic and also suffered 4 drops. Ponder ran or threw for 18 1st downs and added a passing touchdown, all while hobbling around.

FSU's offense simply had the answer all day. For every 80-yard touchdown pass the defense gave up, for every lost look and shouting match on the sideline between the defensive coaches and the players who have simply tuned them out, there were just as many quality plays from an offense that is working together as a machine because everyone does their job and trusts one another to do their job as well. That's a credit to the coaches who care about Florida State because they know they will be around next season. Florida State fans have to like what they see from Fisher, who is well on his way to winning his 2nd consecutive ACC Offensive Coordinator of the year award. It's just sad that the lame duck bunch doesn't have enough integrity to work at the same level. Sad, but not surprising, and nobody should go into any remaining Florida State game thinking that the Seminole's defense will do anything but allow the opposing offense to post their best game of the season.

But the 'Noles do have possibly the nation's best offense, and considering that offense features only 1 senior starter, and knowing that a new group of defensive coaches will soon be there to take advantage of FSU's still considerable defensive talent, here's betting that Doak Campbell Stadium will be full next year for Fisher's first homecoming as head coach.

Maryland's Next Opponent: NC State Loses, Still Reinforces They Can Score a Lot

Ben Broman — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:46:07 -0000

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These guys lost, but they scored a heck of a lot of points in the process.

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Alas, the dream ends tomorrow, as we have to return to covering the football team (but men's basketball countdown starts tomorrow too!). Next week's opponent is none other than the North Carolina State Wolfpack, also known as the only team below Maryland in the ACC Atlantic.

They had a chance to break out of that today against Florida State, and nearly did, but lost to the Noles in the final minute.

They were up 42-38 on FSU with just over 3 minutes left, and the Noles drove down the field and scored a TD with 1:36 left. Even though they lost, they proved a very scary thing: they can put up a lot of points against a less than porous defense.

Starting QB and future MLB 2B Russell Wilson was 20-29 with five TDs for 349 yards. The Wuffies put up a total of 538 yards, and six total TDs. FSU's D isn't impeccable, but they have been decent, and certainly better than Maryland. I shudder to think what Wilson will do to this secondary.

On the good side, their defense was worse than their offense was good. They allowed 555 yards and 45 points, 5 of which came on the ground.

The good news for Maryland is that they were absolutely gashed against the run; Jermaine Thomas averaged nearly 10 yards a carry and had 183 yards; as a team, FSU averaged 8 yards per carry and put up 278 yards on just 33 carries.

The bad news is that they shut down former fantastical (that is, not really) Heisman candidate Christian Ponder, who had been looking great the past few weeks and had thrown just one interception all year. Today, he was 26 of 40 for 277 yards, but threw just one TD and threw two interceptions - if you weren't paying attention, he tripled his interception total today.

Unfortunately, none of Maryland's offensive line, running backs, or QB is as talented as FSU's, so expecting a similar level of success might be more far-fetched.

That said, I haven't done any research on NCSt yet, so this might be an outlier; we'll know more in a few days.

Florida State Film Review: Seminole Offense @ North Carolina Tar Heel Defense

FSUncensored — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 05:22:20 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

about 1 month ago: Florida State's Rod Owens, left, and Beau Reliford celebrate Owens' touchdown against North Carolina during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. Florida State won 30-27. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Welcome to another edition of Florida State Film Review! For the 2nd week in a row, I'm not breaking down the defense on a play-by-play basis because they are so poorly coached I cannot discern what they are attempting to do from play to play. Maybe I'll look at the defense Tuesday, but it is my honest evaluation that this defense is one of the worst in the country, even when adjusting for competition level. Instead, let's discuss one of the top offenses in the country. Today we have 7 exciting film clips and some photos as well. Continue reading and check it out!

And of course, if you enjoyed this, spread it around to your friends! We recently hit One Million visitors, and pieces like this are a reason why. Our staff puts a lot of work into these, and all 'Nole fans should see them. So spread it around.

Let's review just how impressive FSU's victory was:

Florida State traveled to face off against one of the finest defenses and worst offenses in the country. North Carolina's defense came into the game ranked 10th, their offense 99th. FSU's offense entered the game ranked 8th, their defense 101st. Florida State knew coming into the game that reaching 24 points would be a huge accomplishment against the ferocious North Carolina defense that features multiple future early NFL draft picks. It would be up to FSU's defense to make UNC's horrible offense look, well, horrible. Of course, FSU's defense allowed UNC to roll up 17 1st half points and to score another TD on their first 2nd half drive. FSU was down 24-6 to one of college football's best defenses.

And while FSU was setting up plays for the 2nd half and feeling out what could work, FSU's horrific defense let UNC's pitiful offense run up and down the field.

Let's use a quick chart to put this in perspective. Just how good was FSU's performance? To find out, you must compare it to the other teams who played the Heels:

Team v. UNC's Defense -ranked 10th	at UCONN	ECU	at Gtech	UVA	Florida State
Rank of Offense	49	62	2	56	8
Plays	61	61	77	68	65
Yards Per Play Allowed	3.2	4	5.2	3.8	6.7
Rushes	31	28	65	37	23
Yards/ Rush Allowed	3.3	2.6	5	3.7	2.3
Passing Plays	30	33	12	31	41
Yards/ Pass Play Allowed	3.1	5.3	6.9	3.8	9.2

Yards-Per-Play is used because it is the best standard measure of defense. Total yards is moronic (please don't try to argue this, just use the search feature at right). It really isn't the fault of the defense if the offense allows the opponent to get 17 possessions or take the ball in UNC's red zone three times in a contest. How many snaps did you have, what did you do with them (or allow your opponent to do with theirs). Simple enough.
Sacks have been re-allocated to Passing plays (since they are the result of a failed passing play and not a run play)
Kneel-Downs are not included as they are not a competitive play.
Carolina's defense hasn't allowed anyone to gain more than 5.2 yards per play. FSU put up 6.7 yards per play. Doesn't seem like much? Think again. Florida State gained 30% more yards per play than anyone else had on the Tar Heel's defense. And they did it in North Carolina, on a Thursday night.
1st team to crack 410 yards against UNC’s defense (438), and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA. Georgia Tech had 406, but they did it in Atlanta, and did it on 85 plays. FSU did it on 15 fewer plays. That's about 20% fewer snaps for FSU, but a lot more yards and as shown above, a lot more yards per play.
1st team to put 30 points on UNC’s defense and did it IN NORTH CAROLINA.

So yes, on a Thursday night, Florida State went into the house of one of the best defenses in the country, got down by 18 points by allowing one of the worst offenses in the nation to set season-highs. Then with UNC knowing they would have to pass, they did just that. And did it again and again and again. Florida State obliterated the even the worst numbers that Carolina's stellar defense had allowed all season. The 'Noles put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else had against the Tar Heels, and they did it in Chapel Hill, on a Thursday Night. The credit goes to Jimbo Fisher's halftime adjustments and Christian Ponder's once again excellent play.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels boxscore (Note, this isn't adjusted for sacks of kneeldowns, etc)

What did we learn?

If you don't think FSU is one of the best 5 offenses in the country, you need to wake up. Think a bit smarter and realize the opponent quality when you look at the production. FSU didn't get cupcakes this year.

No offense has scored more points against Miami than FSU.
Florida State's 54 points against BYU is 20 more than the next closest effort by any other team against the Cougars.
Fisher's offense dropped 44 on Georgia Tech; no other team has even cracked 35 on the Jackets, and the one who cracked 30 was Mississippi State who did it in garbage time (31 points).
And you saw the figures from above. FSU put up 30% more yards per play than anyone else did against UNC. And of course they set new season highs for points allowed and yards allowed by UNC.

I'll give a brief overview of the drive and include clips or pictures where relevant.

Drive #1

McMahon continues to have high snaps. 1st play of game. Also, poor pitch relationship between givens and thomas on 2nd down reverse (loss of 10). 3rd and 18 bubble is safe. possible big play and no disaster

Drive #2

Motion Jermaine Thomas out wide is good, gives ponder coverage look, goes from I-form to basically 4 wide. UNC played the spread sets very very conservatively early, counting on their front-4. They had no idea how to react to Thomas motioning wide from I-form. Nice use of pistol formation, lots of things happening. Bubble look to strong, slant weakside w/ Thomas also releasing weak. Hard to align v. pistol.

Then FSU comes out in I-formation twins, carolina has 8 in the box, clearly cover-3 as fsu motions to the weakside. This is cool:

Run-action holds the linebackers, and Zebrie Sanders and David Spurlock slip out to block for Bert reed. This is an excellent use of personnel as FSU is a great screen team due to their athletic offensive linemen. Sander's doesn't nail his block, but this is a very good play to have in the repertoire and is an appropriate counter to teams running lots of cover-3 with 8 in the box against standard personnel. This is a play that fsu can hit for long yardage on 1st downs. Also, look for the Noles to run it to Datko/Hudson's side later.

The bubble screen that reed fumbled/ didn't catch was the correct read by ponder. Owens just missed his block. That's not a call, but rather a check by ponder. against teams playing very loose cover-3 with 8 in the box against twins, fsu will need to continue to throw these. it's simply a regulator.

Bert Reed had a false start which is just not acceptable. poor concentration by the wideouts in the 1st half. (missed block by Owens, false start, etc). And the drive stalls. Pretty good drive against UNC's D.

Drive # 3

(Ponder sacked & fumbled). Arm might have been going forward. Spurlock lunged, and Zebrie got beat to the inside. More on them later. Datko also allowed pressure there. Not a good play, but remember, UNC was going to get a few of those.

Drive #4:

Zone read, very well blocked by 4 of 5, but spurlock not a great cut and his man makes a phenomenal crawling play to trip up thomas. Play had nice potential. Oh and Thomas didn't run real hard on it. Loss of 1. Here's the photo:

The man circled in yellow crawls at light-speed and makes the tackle.

Then FSU hits a 60+ yard play that is called back for an illegal block. Middle screen picture:

Just a step beyond the line. play isn't a penalty if he is 18 inches back. Negates gain of 65 yards. The rule is clear, you cannot block downfield for a pass thrown beyond the line of scrimmage.

Drive # 5:

Pistol Thomas for 4, inside zone. 5 good blocks, held the backside. drew unc offisdes. picked up 2nd and 2 with a 3 yard outside zone run to the right. good blocks, some movement. bert reed good effort on block but tough to block a big backer. Nice protection on the 13 yard slant to Fortson who did a nice job to get the YAC. Option look from off-set pistol, Ponder gets 3 but doesn't pitch the ball like he should (this might be fake option). Fortson has a bad drop on a slant. FSU has to have that. He's open, he's a big body, and he must catch the damn football. drew them offsides again, so from 3rd and 7 to 3rd and 2. Ponder hesitated and didn't hit owens on the 3rd and 2 rollout, his scramble didn't get there. punt.

Drive # 6

Pistol, Bubble. Slightly late as Ponder couldn't grip the ball. Excellent throw and catch on a tight window slant to Owens who gets 8 more yards and gets out of bounds. Fake draw fake end around and toss it to givens for 2 or 3. Good play to show it and kep them honest. Then came a beautiful play: JIMBO FISHER SMASH CLIP.

This is known as the smash. The outside receiver runs a curl and the slot receiver runs a corner route. The QB reads the defender. If the defender plays the curl, the QB throws the Corner. If the defender plays off, the QB throws the Curl. It's quite the cat and mouse game between QB and cornerback, and Ponder plays to win. Beautiful ball and great job getting the foot down by Bert Reed.

So 1st and goal. Reliford misses his block on the qb wrap. in any case, Commack lined up incorrectly, so even if FSU had scored, he would have nullified it. Lack of attention to detail. Coaches were livid. On 2nd and goal, they had the delay. Why? Apparently Bobby didn't realize last year's clock rules, thought clock stopped after a penalty. It doesn't. Assistant coaches can't call timeout, only the head coach, and he was nowhere to be seen. The FSU played it safer and got the FG before half.

At the half, I did not think FSU's offense was getting owned. They were facing a very good defense that had made a few great plays and fsu's offense was just a hair off. the unperfect cut block, a high snap, a drop, a receiver running inside instead of out, etc. There was no absurd physical domination going on. For the most part, FSU had seen a lot of formations to stop the run and the deep ball, giving FSU the short stuff to the outside, which Ponder patiently took. Also, Fisher was setting up some stuff for later.

Florida State began to pound the flats. They got into the Pistol and ran the ball with their zone blocking schemes. They made UNC make tackles in space. They did everything to negate UNC's great size. Amazingly, they repeatedly ran 5-man protections (no tight ends or backs blocking) and did very well with it. The line beautifully handled UNC's defensive line in pass protection and gave Ponder the time he needed to through all of his reads.

Drive # 7

Start out with an inside zone to the weak side. Spurlock doesn't get his cutoff. Pryor runs hard for 1 or 2. Swing to Lonnie sets up 3rd and 3. Throw was low. On 3rd and 3, Thomas can't come up with a well placed throw to the outside, though it was a tough catch. Punt coming.

Drive # 8

Came out in 4-wide gun, protection was excellent, Carolina played soft coverage, easy 7 yards to Owens on a hitch. On 2nd and 5, FSU runs their staple, the Smash, and Ponder overthrows it. It was open, Easterling ran a good route. Maybe the only blatantly bad throw Ponder made. You can see Ponder tell Easterling "My Bad." On 3rd and 5 UNC drops 8 into coverage and Ponder hits Owens on a 7 yard hitch. Good patience, good route. No pass pressure from UNC at all on the drive so far. 1-10 and FSU went high-tempo, Outside Zone run to Thomas from the Pistol. NIce blocks from Hudson and McMahon. UNC's front is very good and to get a 10 yard run there was very good. Thomas seemed to run harder after midway through the 2nd. Beautiful flare throw to Thomas for 9. No pressure from UNC, and they are clearly worried about the deep outside now. The middle of the field will be open later in the game. Foreshadowing duh duh duh. On 2nd and 1, Datko gets beat inside and Thompson can't pick up the first down from the gun. Datko's excellent in pass protection but he sometimes struggles in run blocking. On 3rd and short, FSU doesn't screw around and they quickly sneak for the first. On the 1st, FSU is in the gun and there's a lot to see here. Let's go to the tape:

UNC switched into a 3 man line with 4 linebacker types. They zone blitz at the snap, sending 5 rushers and dropping 2 people into coverage, a linebacker and a lineman. FSU's motion is like their 2-back sweep, but UNC is in full-blitz mode and they do not care. Thomas gets an incredible block, but there's one too many to the right side with the overload. FSU's line is trying to shield left but the blitz is coming from the right. Ponder eludes the guy and throws to Fortson who has done a nice job of beating his man and coming back for the ball, but he drops it. That's his 2nd crucial drop this game. Remember too that he has the sloppy screen route leading to the penalty.

So 2nd and 10. Remember when I said the middle of the field would be open later because FSU had run the smash route so well? Yeah, that's now:

Ponder identifies the cover-2, you can see the checks he makes at the line. The 3 middle defenders drop into their zones, while the two safeties each play a deep half. The linebacker does a nice job to funnel Reed to the sideline, expecting the Smash route (Reed running the corner). But this is no corner route. Reed runs the square in, and Ponder rifles it. It's not a great throw, but considering the dropsies the wideouts have had, it was nice of Reed to catch this one. The window between the linebackers is open and you can see it. Also, the protection is great. Nobody near Ponder.

On the resulting 1st down, FSU expects the safety to cheat to the inside more, because of the previous play. And he's just not cheated enough. The ball is thrown a bit high and the coverage is good. Incomplete. On 2nd down, FSU runs the givens end around action, fakes it to Thomas, looks at Givens, but it's a screen! It gets 7 or 8 yards and I like the call. Thought Hudson released a bit early and was overanxious. You know he wants that cut on that corner again. On 3rd and 3, FSU calls the QB draw. The look is crucial:

Notice how the linebackers are peeling to defend the bubble screen to either side. Ponder gets an easy 10.

On 1st and goal, Easterling can't cleanly catch the bubble but does get 1 or 2 yards. The 2nd and goal is 5 wide double slants. Good routes and a good throw for the TD, 13-24.

Drive # 9:

98 yard TD to Owens. This is a hitch-n-go set up by the hitch after hitch FSU threw earlier. It was a 6 man protection, and UNC rushed with 5. Excellent protection and a nice throw from the end zone.

Drive # 10:

Ponder starts to abuse UNC. They tried to cover Bert Reed with a backup linebacker, and that's just not possible. Perfect pass pro. Fortson gets called for a hold on a bubble to Easterling (I think Easty is on his way back, by the way). Bad luck on a middle screen to Easterling as UNC twisted into it. On a 3rd and 7, Ponder hits Owens for a 15 yard post. No idea what coverage UNC was playing. I suspect that backup linebacker blew the coverage. Here you go:

On the next play, UNC is really desperate to make something happen. They are hyper-aggressive. FSU had done a good job running from the Pistol, and Fisher made a masterful call: Pistol play-action Owens Deep Out:

Watch how hard everyone from UNC pursues what they think is a run play. Ponder had his choice of 3 open receivers. The next play is a 9 yard inside zone out of the Pistol. McMahon does an okay job to hold his line. The Thompson runs again for 9, same play, just flipped. Pretty simple stuff.

On the next play, however, McMahon gets blown away and it leads to a 6 yard loss. Drive killer? Maybe.

So on 2nd and 13, Fisher dials up a GREAT play. Throwback tight end screen. FSU executes it perfectly, but Reliford forgets one thing- to use his blockers. He cuts outside and is impatient. Look at what could happen had he been patient:

Bert made a great catch to get FSU into better field goal range, and Hopkins hits it, 23-24.

Drive # 11:

Down, 27-23, Ponder hits Fortson on a deep skinny off a beautiful double release, off play-action. Then Ponder to Fortson on the auto-rollout w/ the off-sides for 10. Then the go-ahead TD:

Initially, I thought Reliford was Ponder's 4th read. In actuality, he seems to be his 2nd read. Ponder's pump fake makes 3 people cover Fortson on the skinny post and nobody is on Reliford for the wide open wheel route. This throw is more difficult than you probably realize. Ponder throws it from the opposite hash. Even though Reliford is essentially a basketball player, even he can catch this ball. The protection was very good as well. Kudos, offensive line.

Drive: # 12 let's close out the game.

Pistol Play-action bootleg to Reed for 4. UNC expected run. Corner remembered being burned by Owens before so he peeled off deep. Reed nice job to stay inbounds. Bubble to Owens for 5.5 Ponder sneak 1st down.

I-Formation, end around action to Chris Thompson for 1. Didn't like getting into the I-formation here. Not at all. One of the lone criticisms I have. Then FSU gets back in the run and runs a great play:

This is essentially play-action QB wrap. FSU is pulling the right tackle, #77 Zebrie Sanders. Ponder fakes the lead sweep, and is going to keep the ball. Excellent job by sanders to blast #52, who was certainly in the backfield much sooner than he expected. Excellent reaction. The rest is Ponder getting 6-7 yards to build momentum before getting the 1st down, which killed more clock.

Back in the I-formation, don't like it. Thompson for 3. FSU not a good I-formation team. 2nd and 7, qb draw for 2. 3rd and 5, QB draw from 5 wide. Eh. Punt, UNC has little time and they can't throw.

Overall Review

Ponder is simply amazing. I'll have an article on him tomorrow. The only QB who is on his level right now is Jimmy Claussen. Fisher called him the best QB in the country. Jake Locker has better physical talents but a ten-cent head right now. McCoy doesn't quite have the wheels or the arm and McCoy looks to the sidelines for his checks. Ponder calls his own game and checks. Tebow might be playing himself out of the draft. Mallet has the huge arm but not the accuracy or intelligence. And Bradford has a bum wing. Sam is brittle. Fisher gives him 3 plays and he checks the offense into the most favorable before the snap. That's a huge advantage. Few teams in college can do that. Ponder showed good arm strength and seems to be all the way back from his knee injury. His throws were on the money at a ridiculous clip. He took very few risks. Nary a ball was close to being intercepted.

It was a miraculous comeback for Florida State and the star was Christian Ponder. The Junior quarterback went 33-40 for 395 yards and 3 Touchdowns with zero interceptions. He was pinpoint and could have easily thrown for 450 yards had he not been victimized by 3 drops and an offensive pass interference call. Ponder might be the best quarterback in the country. You'd be hard-pressed to find one who is playing better. Considering the opponent and situation, Ponder's performance was one for the ages. He posted a QB rating of 190 (NFL equivalent of 133). Ponder finished the game 16-16 for 236 yards.

Jermaine Thomas should probably get the ball more. He has good hands and does a nice job running, but he and all of the backs must run harder. Still, Thomas never lost yards. Chris Thompson for the most part ran hard in the 2nd half. Both backs did a nice job in their blitz pickup. I am not impressed those two or Pryor when it comes to run blocking. I pretty much hate Pryor in the fullback spot. Fisher knows more than me, by a ton, but he needs to quit using Pryor at fullback. He's just not a good player at that spot.

Receivers Rod Owens and Bert Reed has big games. Owens with his 9 catch 199 yard night. Owens was targeted 10 times. He caught 9 balls. 8 of those were successes. 7 of the successes went for a 1st down or a touchdown. His catches were meaningful. Reed was targeted 10 times. He caught 8 balls. 5 of the 8 were not what I consider a "success", but some were tough yards. 3 were very successful. He also made some very tough catches. 74 yards total. Reed also had a false start! Easterling wasn't thrown to much, but he did draw coverage and did his job. His TD catch was nice, and he didn't flinch much knowing he could get hit big. Fortson showed his flashes of brilliance but balanced those with some untimely drops. He caught 4 balls for 56 yards. 3 of the catches were very big. But he was also called for a hold, dropped 2 balls, and his imprecise route on his middle screen was inexcusable. Fortson can be a huge weapon and is the most talented offensive player outside Ponder, but he is maddeningly inconsistent.

As for the offensive line. I thought they played well. Again, consider what they were asked to do and against whom they were asked to perform. UNC's front-7 is exceptional. Anyone watching them play could see that. On 42 passing plays, FSU allowed a sack on only 2. That's a stellar 4.8% sack rate allowed. FSU trailed for 55 of the 60 minutes in this game, and UNC knew they would pass and pass. That makes the line's play all the more impressive. Oh, and FSU often left no backs or tight ends in to protect. Left Tackle Andrew Datko is always technically sound and plays a good game. His pass protection was good. I bet he graded out highly. On the inside zone play to his side, Datko does a nice job of influencing his man and then removing him. He's not impressive physically and needs to be more aggressive, but there isn't a better true sophomore I've seen. Rodney Hudson is rock solid. I love to watch him play. He'll play a perfect game before all is over. Center Ryan McMahon played a much better game than I expected. His pass protection was good. Spurlock is aggressive as always. He mixes great blocks with whiffs. I give him high marks for his work against 1st round lock Marvin Austin. Zebrie continues to improve and you should remember he is a true sophomore. I wish I could give Sanders some of Spurlock's aggressiveness. Sanders must get better at cutting the backside on the run plays.