SB Nation - Mikel LeShoure

The Final Word on the 2009 Fighting Illini football Season

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:47:49 -0000

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I really did not want to write this post. This season was so bad that we have known for many weeks that there would be very little positive that could be taken from it. It was a season that will be defined by let downs, unmet expectations and uncertainty.

Like I did at the end of last year's basketball season, I have assess to what expectations I wish to hold this team. At the beginning of the season, after reading my Phil Steele and feeling about as confident as I ever have about this team, I said that this season would probably be an 8-4 year, with losses to Penn State, Ohio State, Cincinnati and one team we should not lose to. That's a bowl, a solid season and in a situation that gives you a good feeling about the future.

Phil Steele said we would finish 3rd in the conference, and that there was an outside chance we would go undefeated. If there is anyone more upset with Ron Zook right now than Phil Steele, I would like to meet him, because this 3-9 season has got to hurt his credibility.

You know what might be the worst thing about this year? That the defense by the final three weeks was completely unable to make a stop and the offense was putting up sick numbers on otherwise good teams. The polar opposite of the beginning of the year where the defense would hang tough for 3 quarters before folding from exhaustion at the end, and got no support from the vaunted offense.

That offense that finally got its feet under it in the second half of the year put Illini fans through some awfully difficult to watch games early in the year. It would move the ball down the field and then lose the ball in one disastrous way after another. Fumbles and penalties and interceptions, groan. The offense at times was literally tripping over its own feet and keeping itself from success. There were lots of problems from receivers like Fayson and Cumberland who disappointed in their production, to Arrelious Benn who just plain was not thrown to enough. (double standard maybe, but which of these 3 is getting first round money?) One of the weapons I was looking forward to seeing better used this year was Uh-oh who outside of a catch here or there was either not thrown to or was sidelined with injury.

The running game would eventually prove to be one of the bright spots of the team, but early on it too was inconsistent, and underused more than likely due to all of the talent we perceived ourselves to have a wide receiver. Mikel Leshoure needs to get the ball more next year than any of the other backs, I don't care what playing time has been promised to the others. He is your go-to back, no excuses.

As for Juice, I still feel bad the way his final season as an Illini ended up. When he is allowed to play his game, the game he excels at, the game that got him to the Rose Bowl, it can be plainly seen how much of a threat he can be to defenses. He is as classy as football players get, even through being pulled earlier this season and then being put back in without any fanfare. He is your all time offensive yards leader, he will go down as one of the most important players to this school, and I for one wish things would have gone better for him. Maybe I am biased, going to school at Illinois during the Rose Bowl run will probably tend to do that.

As for the defense many of the problems that plagued it at the beginning of the season still plagued it at the end, but to a greater degree. There are some spots on defense of real strength, most notably defensive tackle, but the weak points were never fully shored up. I suppose some of this can be blamed on injury the losses of Martez Wilson, Miami Thomas and intermittently Donsay Hardeman combined with youth and inexperience in other areas to create at best an inconsistent defense.

The season just never really got off to the start it was supposed to. The loss to Missouri I really think sent this team into a tailspin and had it under perform its own ability from then on. I believe to some degree it was not as good as advertised, but its talent level is not as bad as its record. Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State did just as some predicted and put the Illini in a hole that they were never really fully able to pull themselves out of. If the Illini take one of those three games, I don't believe they lose to either Purdue or Indiana. This team should have been at least a 6-6 team. You can blame the coaches for panicking maybe, or the players for despairing, or the AD for giving the team a schedule that seems hell bent against going to a bowl. Whatever the reason this team was not put into a position to succeed, and underperformed.

There are still some bright spots to look forward to, somewhat at least. Terry Hawthorne, whatever position he is going to play, on whatever side of the ball, is going to be one of the better players for this team. He ended up being the best defensive back after being converted to the position halfway through the season. Jacob Charest emerged as the probable starting QB for next year, with Eddie McGee moving to receiver, a position he proved better at than many established players.

For all the problems this team has had it still has talent. Right now both Jon Asamoah and Arrelious Benn are projected first round draft picks. Along with Rashard Mendenhall from two years ago and Vontae Davis last year that will make three years in a row with a first rounder. Thats not something that usually happens to consistently bad teams. But to us, it has.

I don't know what next year really holds. There are a lot of rumors of firings and transfers that will be decided in the next several week, so I could not really tell you in what direction the team will ultimately go. The two indicators we do have though are next year's schedule and recruiting, and both of those point to another losing season. See you this summer football, I hope under better circumstances.

Illini fall to Fresno State in least likely way possible.

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 21:11:05 -0000

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Do you ever feel like God is laughing at you? Well maybe not God per se, but some sort of supernatural force that wants to make sure you learn every sort of disappointment thoroughly. I have seen the Illini lose in a lot of ways, both blowouts and heart breakers, and let me tell you, this was by a wide margin the least likely thing that has ever happened. .

But I digress. For many, many reasons, it has taken me quite some time to write about this game. The last game of any real meaning happened back before Thanksgiving, and without even the selling point of making the entire city of Cincinnati cry there was very little interest left for this last game.

It was senior day though, and the last opportunity for all of us to see #7 go out there and try and recapture the glory one last time. I think a full retrospective on the career of Juice Williams deserves its own dedicated post, so I wont go into the melancholy feelings even I had about realizing it was his last game as an Illini. For now I'll just stick to the game at hand.

I remember hearing in the pressbox that up until the final 8 minutes, this had to be the most boring yet high scoring game there was. And for the most part, it was true. What we saw yesterday were two teams with pretty damn good running backs run almost completely unchecked up and down the field. Ryan Mathews with his 32 carries for 172 yards and Mikel LeShoure with his much more efficient 11 carries for 184 yards. Yes, that is a 16 yard per carry average. I will now, if you will indulge me, try and communicate to you my frustrations with the coaching staff concerning Mikel LeShoure and his playing time.

Mikel LeShoure is, at this very moment, and will be next year the best running back option on this team. It has been proven just about every week since Purdue. That said, Mikel LeShoure had over 200 yards of all purpose yardage, but was given the ball 4 fewer times than his teammate Jason Ford. Ford of course had a decent game with 65 yards, but he had no where near the game that LeShoure did. If ford has any advantage on LeShoure it is in the red zone, where Jason Ford can use his strength to get short yardage. But in the open field, on the read option and on the speed option, or just plain old fashion down hill running Leshoure has proven himself the superior back. The numbers don't lie.

All of this evidence being in place, no one yet has been able to explain to me why, on the last Illini possession, with only a few minutes left on the clock and all that was needed to finish the game off was a first down or two, Jason Ford, and not Mikel Leshoure lined up as the running back.

It was LeShoure after all that had caught the pass for the go ahead touchdown just before. When asked why Mikel was not out there, he simply explained that "we like all of our backs." I interpret that to mean that in the normal rotation of backs, it was Ford's turn. Ford got 3 yards on a run, Juice got 2 yards on a run, and Benn got 3 yards on a catch, not enough for the first down. I am not saying that Leshoure would have been meant a first down, but with his 16 yard per carry average, it could not have hurt.

But the Illini didn't get the first down. And they ended up giving up another touchdown. And then Fresno elected to go for 2. and then this happened.

I was standing on the field with the rest of the media, waiting for the post game interviews etc. I was standing just behind the cameramen, directly parallel with the end zone. I saw the whole thing happen in front of me. I saw the QB chased out of the pocket, I saw him seemingly wrapped up for a sack, I saw his desperate flail of a pass to the end zone, I saw Tavon Wilson and the Fresno receiver grasp at the ball, I saw it bounce into the arms of David Cunningham. I saw the officials signal for a successful conversion, and I don't think I'll be able to figure out all of the things that had to go wrong for the Illini for that to happen. Six feet away from me the Fresno State AD was going absolutely insane yelling at the officials that the conversion had to stand. And it of course did.

This was one of the weirdest plays around, and while it sucked for my team, I suppose I am glad to have seen it in person. Along with being at the 2007 Ohio State game, I guess this the most significant football moment I have seen in person. As an Illini fan, you don't get to see many in the first place, so I guess I should be appreciative.

So closed the 2009 season of Illini football, fitting with the rest of the season, it was not good, but it was exciting.

Stay tuned for a full season in review later this week.

The Illini lose to Northwestern, reality comes back with a vengeance

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:00:26 -0000

by Stephen Haas - AP

about 1 month ago: Illinois head coach Ron Zook argues with referee Dan Capron and field judge Craig Jeffreys over a call during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern at Memorial Stadium, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009, in Champaign, Ill. Northwestern won the game 21-16. (AP Photo/Decatur Herald & Review, Stephen Haas)

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You probably wont be reading anything much more about the football team for a while. With the loss in the waning moments to Northwestern on Saturday, the last hope of salvaging anything from this season evaporated. I won't talk about preseason expectations, about overall performance this year or speculate on the future here, that is for another post at the end of the season. I will however take a moment to reflect on the last two weeks of the football season, two weeks that were easily the most enjoyable all year. The team was performing like a great football team and winning, really winning for the first time all year. Most of us knew that the prospect of winning out the season and making a bowl at 6-6 was a pipe dream, but until you full on mathematically eliminated, why not have fun and hold on to hope?

The NU game ended up being very close to a sell out, based almost entirely on the combination of preseason ticket sales and the fact that the team was fun to watch again. It is also proof that football fans don't need a Rose Bowl every year to get excited about their team, just a good team that's fun to watch and will at least contend for a bowl most years. Illini fans saw that in Northwestern who are bowl bound again with 7 wins, and headed to their 3rd bowl in 5 years (and were even bowl eligible in 2007) Ryan field does not draw near as many fans as Memorial Stadium, even with the Illini at a much worse 3-7. Don't ever accuse the fans of not supporting this team.

Overall, in the game itself, we saw again the manner in which the team can fall apart or storm to victory based on just a few key situations. Unfortunately the team tended towards the former. For 99% of the first half the two teams were trading blows of missed field goals and stalled drives. Jacob Charest had not played his best, but Mikel Leshoure seemed to be maintaining the offense well enough. The key play, at the very end of the first half was a Charest interception, followed almost immediately by a Northwestern touchdown. The Illini went into half not up 3-0, but down 7-3. The chain of events had already begun however, and the problems only compounded from there.

I am not one to call out a coaching decision, because all I am is some kid who sits at his computer and admittedly know less than half of what it takes to actually make these decisions. That said however, I cannot figure out why the coaches sent Eddie McGee out for not one but two disastrous series in the third quarter. It seems like having to split time between preparing as a WR and as the backup QB somewhat handcuffed the play calling, because he threw all of one pass in his time taking snaps, almost always trying for yards on designed QB draws or just plain running for whatever he could get.

You could say that the Illini were just trying for a change of pace at QB for a running threat to go with Charest's arm, in much the same way that NU used Dan Persa or Minnesota used Marqueis Gray. I thought that too, but that did not explain why Eddie was sent back out for a second series of more of the same, even after nearly losing a fumble. Zook even explained after the game that he had pulled Charest because of the INT. After these two series in which the Illini had totaled just 50 yards and no points, the third quarter was over and the Illini were well on their way to being down 21 to 3.

Charest came back in the fourth quarter and played out of his mind, especially for a RS freshman in his first start, scoring two touchdowns. The fact that the Illini were in a position to possibly win the game in the final minute of the 4th is completely a testament to Charest, and the great catches made by the wide-outs, including Eddie McGee. The Illini were under the gun of the clock in the 4th, and it just makes you wonder how different a story it would have been the coaches had allowed Charest to work through his problems in the 3rd instead. Since sticking with Juice through thick and thin for 4 years, Zook has shown a much quicker trigger finger on pulling QB's for poor performance.

One thing I will say, that even though we will see a healthy Juice for the final two games, this team already has its next QB is in place, Jacob Charest looks like he has the makings of a very good passer.

Its too bad that most people are all now going to switch to basketball or focus on next year. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

The march of destruction continues: Illini over Minnesota recap

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:34 -0000

by Paul Battaglia - AP

about 1 month ago: Illinois quarterback Jacob Charest (12) looks to throw against Minnesota during the first half in an NCAA football game, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2008 in Minneapolis. Charest threw for 185 yards and a touchdown as Illinois won 35-32. AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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As I have said before, this team, win or lose, is always exciting to watch. Saturday's game against Minnesota was, of course, no exception. It had everything from INTs for TDs, blocked punts for TDs, missed field goals, injured quarterbacks, freshman heroics and an onside kick for good measure. Illini season tickets should come with a free case of TUMS.
The first half could not have gone better for the Illini (scoring-wise at least) The Illini take an early lead with an 80 yard TD drive and a pick 6 from everyone's new favorite player Terry Hawthorne. Then there is the injury to Juice, making way for the other freshman savior du jour to come in and lead the Illini to a half time lead of 28 to 7.

Jacob Charest looked really good yesterday, and for good reason. He is a very different type of QB than Juice, he is almost 0% likely to keep the ball on an end read and there is no way he will be as good as Juice in the option game. Passing however, is a different story. He showed yesterday the exact sort of poise that the offense has been lacking all year, specifically getting off an accurate pass in the face of a blitz. It was the formula that for most of the season has undone both Juice and Eddie, and made our offense look anemic. Charest found the open man in key blitzing situations (third and long) and made the Gophers pay for leaving a receiver open, to the tune of several first downs. With Eddie playing receiver (a very good receiver) or possibly at best a wildcat like position, I think its clear that Charest will be the favorite coming into next year's Camp.

If the impressive if slightly inconsistent performance by Charest didn't make you ever so slightly more confident in the offense, then the running of Jason Ford is sure to have. A week after fellow sophomore RB Mikel Leshoure had his break out game, seemingly solidifying his role as the main running threat Jason Ford responded with a team leading 82 yards on a day that was otherwise quiet on the ground. Add into the mix another TD from the very fast Justin Green and the running offense seems to be pretty solid for the next one or two years. Of course like everything else with this team there is a distinct chance that every thing could fall apart tomorrow and we are all left dumbfounded.

Speaking of, the previous liability of the defensive line has once again transformed itself into a strength for the defense, which is something that preseason projections had suggested all along. Of particular good news is the play of defensive end Clay Nurse, who once again is making the case for being the best player on the defensive line, yes, even more than the also impressive Liuget.

The big question is now how to keep that "momentum" going. Momentum and the like are occasionally the lazy sort of reporting devices used to explain the flow of a game, but if there ever was a team to which these sports cliches applied it would be the Illini. They seem to have some momentum now, with two straight wins, but the ending of this game should give us pause, especially as we face Northwestern who they themselves have a considerable amount of momentum going now. *cough Iowa cough*

Illini at Minnesota preview: part of the plan all along.

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0000

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I suppose it is finally time to stop riding the happy train of victory that has kept me going all week and to start actually focusing at the game at hand.

In Minnesota, the Illini find themselves once again up against a team that sits at 5 wins, on the verge of going to a bowl, after Illinois, the Gophers play South Dakota state and Iowa which alternatively look like a lock for a win and a lock for a loss. You could say then that their season and hopes for a bowl bid are dependent upon this game. As I mentioned earlier this week at 6 losses and national coverage for being a disappointment the Illini have found themselves potentially playing spoiler to all the opponents left on their schedule. A loss to the Illini is a bad loss, and could be detrimental to a 6-6 team hoping to get into a last tier bowl. With SD State, Minnesota is assured 6 wins, with Iowa they are guaranteed a 5th loss. A win over Illinois then would make Minny almost sure to get 7 wins and a decent bowl a loss, no more than 6 wins and a bad loss hanging around your neck like an anchor.

The Illini nation, as Ron Zook often refers to it, has already begun to cling to the idea of "hey, if we win out, we are in a bowl." Despite Loren Tate's advice of being a bit more realistic in our dreams, many of us fans have already convinced ourselves that the fabled 2009 Illini from the preview magazines have finally arrived, and that they shall roll convincingly over the remaining competition to the most unlikely 6-6 bowl season ever. Yes that means we would be beating #5 Cincinnati. But hey doesn't that just tell you how badly we want this team to be better?

By this time on Sunday however we could wake up to a cold dose of reality, a 7th loss, a season without any remaining purpose and alot of questions in need of answering.

Until then however, we are perfectly happy delaying any of the not fun questions until this team is no longer celebrating a win.

Minnesota provides the opportunity for the team to prove whether or not they truly have gotten over what ever mental hurtles were preventing them from being successful throughout the first half of the season. We now know that a the very least it is possible for this team to go on the sort of explosive offensive runs and tough defensive stands we once had assumed.

Against a Minnesota team that also rolled out 500 yards of total offense the week before, they are not going to have the benefit of a full half of mediocre football. Last week Minnesota QB Adam Weber threw for over 400 yards and 5 touchdowns, all without sure thing first round WR Eric Decker, the guy that rocked us last year.

The defensive game plan this week is going to be much different than Michigan. Minny is going to throw the ball all over the field and the secondary is going to have to step up like they did last week. All of the sudden, Illini fans are ecstatic that Terry Hawthorne was moved to defense. Maybe even more important is the play of Clay Nurse, Corey Liuget, Josh Brent and Doug Pilcher. The defensive line played better than at any point all year against Michigan. Getting into the backfield and pressuring, sacking, and hurrying Weber will go a long way in taking pressure off of the secondary.

For the first time, I feel pretty good about our offense. I believe that they can do what they did last week, and that is run, run run with Leshoure and Juice in every imaginable way. Options, end reads, keepers and plain old I formation hand offs. Just as key however will be Juice's passing in key situations. Against Michigan Juice was 8-11 with no INTs, the model of efficient QB play. If he can get a line like that this week, I think this Illinois team wins.

See what a difference a win makes? I'm already back to my overly optimistic ways.

Illini beat Michigan, make football fun to watch again.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:15:11 -0000

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Its not a season saving win, its not a program changing win, but it sure was one hell of a fun win.

This was the sort of game that I had expected from the team, and that for whatever reason we had not seen until Saturday. Hell, the second half of Saturday.

The first half played out slowly like most of the games have this year, with missed opportunities on offense and a defense that only seemed to slow the inevitable.

You know I have made light of the fact that Zook was going out every week and saying that he was going to shift things around and try and find a "spark." Maybe I am the crazy one after all because the opening events of the third quarter seemed altered the entire complexion of the game and the team.

When Terry Hawthorne came from behind to tackle Roundtree at the 1 yard line, it somehow changed the game completely. Four intense goal line stops later, and the game had turned.

I have not seen the defensive line play that well all year. Corey Liuget, Clay Nurse, Sirod Williams played out of their minds. Credit where credit is due, the defense played out of their collective minds against Michigan. They blanked the Wolverines in the second half, thanks to two fumbles and two turnovers on downs. Zero points. That is big.

Mikel LeShoure completed the paradigm shift soon after that key series of plays with a 70 yard run that reminded a lot of people in the press box of the last Illini running back to wear #5.There really isn't much a question anymore on who the go to guy at RB is.

The offense seemed to be energized, with the exception of a few very painful instances, the pass protection went way up and the holes for the backs seemed to get bigger.

And is it just me or did Jason Ford and Leshoure get faster in the second half? Whatever the reason, the statistics tell the tale of how gigantic the offense became in the second half.

Illinois totaled 94 yards of offense in the first half. In the third quarter alone the Illini had 200 yards, and 119 on the ground. The Illini would go onto amass 500 yards against Michigan for the second year in a row. That my friends is a 400 yard second half.

Give it up for the once embattled Juice Williams by the way who retook the reigns of this offense and reaffirmed what every Illini hoped he could be as a QB. He once again went on a tear in front of Rich Rodriguez, running his end read system to perfection and just running all over the Michigan defense. He deserves to enjoy this week, this season has been a disappointment for him to this point, and I hope this lets him relax and enjoy the rest of his senior year.

I'm sure I'll go into more about what this means overall for the team, the season and the coach later this week. But for now, just enjoy the fact that the Illini have beaten Michigan, something that doesn't happen often enough to take for granted, just yet anyway.

Well that was fun. Illini get nasty on Michigan 38-13

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 00:23:38 -0000

Look I know that this game deserves a hell of alot more attention than I am able to give to it right now, so expect a much more thorough post game tomorrow. But for now, enjoy these fun facts.

Illinois shut the door on Michigan in the second half. No points, none allowed by the Illini defense after halftime.
Illinois has beaten Michigan at home for the first time since 1983. Jack Trudeau to Clint Brewster FTW
This is the first time since the 50s that the Illini have beaten Michigan in back to back years.
Mikel Leshoure earned himself the chairmanship of the committee today going for 150 yards on the ground. Including the epic win of 70 yards for the TD.

Look its been a while since we have been able to enjoy a football victory. So I am ordering you to go out tonight and celebrate Halloween right, by getting bombed.

See you when I come to. Enjoy yourselves.

Alright guys, don't blow it now

BoilerTMill — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:47:26 -0000

I am trying to keep the good vibes going. If anyone listened to the Boiled Sports podcast Tuesday night I made a pretty bold statement. I said that as good as the Ohio State win was, losing to Illinois would be 10 times worse. As a result, I am watching the video of the Ohio State win as I write this, hoping it carries over into the blog.

It is true though. If we can beat Ohio State, there is absolutely no reason we should lose to Illinois. You do not often get a chance to play the best team in the conference, then the worst team in the conference the very next week. I would even take it a step further. With Ohio State, we may have played the best team on our schedule last week (though Oregon may be better since they have a real offense). I think Illinois is the worst team on our schedule. They proved last week they are worse than Indiana. I think they are worse than Toledo (who beat NIU last week) and Northern Illinois. This is a team that has quit on its season already. They need to win their remaining games (one of which is against one of the nation's last unbeaten teams) just to qualify for a bowl. Unless we see some unexpected fight from the Illini Saturday, they are done.

2008 Record: 5-7, 3-5 Big Ten

2009 Record: 1-5, 0-4

Bowl result: No Bowl

Blog Representation: Hail to the Orange

Series with Purdue: Illinois leads 41-37-6 (Purdue leads The Cannon portion 29-26-2)

Last Purdue win: 11/11/2006 at Illinois 42-31

Last Illinois win: 10/12/2002 at Illinois 38-31 (OT)

This may be one of the least celebrated trophy games in the Big Ten, but it is one of the closest overall. We have had the Cannon in our possession since 2003, but the recent two-year hiatus in the series means that we only have four straight wins. Speaking as a Purdue fan, the Illinois game really doesn't feel like much of a rivalry. There has never been a ton at stake, as both teams haven't exactly torn up the Big Ten at the same time for quite awhile.

Illinois offense:

This is the main reason that any loss to the Illini would be awful. Their offense, especially if you take away the 45-17 win over Illinois State (a 1-AA team), has been abysmal. That one win represents 45 of the 99 points the team has scored through six games. Not only has Illinois managed just one first half touchdown against a 1-A foe, they have only led one game against a 1-A opponent for about five minutes. That occurred last week at Indiana when the Illini led the Hoosiers 7-3 with 5:27 left in the first half. Illinois gave up 10 points in the final minute of the half, and never threatened again.

I don't even know who we will face at quarterback. Juice Williams (80 of 143, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) is the Big Ten's most experienced quarterback, but he has already been benched in favored of Eddie McGee (21 of 41, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). There is even talk of third string quarterback Jacob Charest, a redshirt freshman, getting some time Saturday. Charest has yet to take a snap in his collegiate career, so if he plays it will officially label Illinois as desperate. Illinois has only passed for 1,128 yards between Williams and McGee.

For a true preview of Saturday, just reverse the 9 and 4 on the jersey. The result of this play (a sack, strip, and fumble recovery for a TD) will likely be the same.

Whoever plays, they will likely become well acquainted with Ryan Kerrigan, Mike Neal, and the rest of our defensive line by the end of the day. The Illinois offensive line is among the worst in the Big Ten, giving up a league high 19 sacks. If our defensive line is not dominating and causing pressure all day something is severely wrong. This is especially true since these guys just played like warriors against Ohio State.

Illinois is not moving the ball well on the ground, either. Williams is the leading rusher with only 239 yards and one touchdown. Jason Ford (222-1), Daniel Dufrene (199-1), and Mikel Leshoure (163-2) form a running back by committee approach that is far from effective. McGee also has a pair of rushing touchdowns, so he is a threat to run if he plays. One has to remember though that the bulk of these numbers, running and passing, have been put up either against Illinois State or after the game is well decided. Illinois has not been in a game against a 1-A foe except last week against Indiana.

If they can get him the ball, there is a bit of a danger at wide receiver. Arrelious Benn was a preseason All-American, but he has only 22 catches for 271 yards and no touchdowns to lead Illinois receivers. As long as we cover him we will shut down Illinois' pathetic passing game. Jarred Fayson (11-119-1), Chris Duvalt (9-136-1), Leshoure (8-115-1), and A.J.Jenkins (7-100-1) have put up modest second half numbers, but again, this offense has literally done nothing in the first half of most games. They need to get the ball to Benn more, who is a playmaker, but they have been unable to.

Illinois defense:

This is a battered unit. They have already lost possibly their best player in Martez Wilson for the season. They may have lost their second best player, Donsay Hardeman, for his career last week. They are not getting to the quarterback with just six team sacks on the year. The offense is doing nothing to help them out, so the defense is getting worn down to the point where it is about as reliable as the Rhythm Method in preventing conception. They have also only forced seven turnovers (three interceptions, four fumbles), and three of those came against Illinois State. I kind of feel bad for them because they are undoubtedly playing hard, but they are getting zero help from their teammates.

Ian Thomas and Tavon Wilson lead the team in tackles with 43 apiece. Thomas has one of the team's sacks, while Wilson has one of the three interceptions. Doug Pilcher is a bit of a force on the defensive line as well. Pilcher has two sacks, 18 tackles, and an interception with a 41 yard return. Russell Ellington could also be a factor, as he has an interception with a 78 yard return. This is still not a fearsome unit.

Illinois is giving up over 28 points per game and their run defense is particularly bad. They are giving up about 180 yards on the ground, which is good for Ralph Bolden. Bolden has not had much room to run recently, and against Northwestern when he did have room we just kept fumbling the ball away. Look for Bolden to get over 100 yards for the first time since the Oregon game. McBurse and Taylor should also see some holes when they are in there. The pass defense is not much better, as it gives up 241 yards per game.

Honestly, we should only have trouble against their defense if we start giving the ball away again. Turnovers were still an issue last week against Ohio State, but we gave up no points off of them. Illinois does not force nearly as many turnovers as Ohio State does, so it once again comes down to us not shooting ourselves in the foot.

Illinois Special Teams:

And you thought their other units were bad. They have no punt return game (a long of nine yards), no kick return game (Benn is a dangerous returner, but only has a long of 33), and Matt Eller has hit on just half his field goals. Granted, the offense is not getting Eller in position to kick, as he is just 3 of 6 on the year with a long of 38.

One phrase we should get used to hearing is, "Anthony Santella is in punt formation". He averages almost six punts per game and has almost a 41 yard per kick average. Both coverage units on special teams for Illinois are merely average.

Intangibles:

This is a team that is already beaten. I watched part of Saturday night's game at Indiana and they had no hustle or emotion whatsoever. Beating them would officially end their bowl hopes, as there is no way they will win their five games after this and qualify at 6-6. This is Illinois' last shot to save its season, but given their body language and effort so far it would be a total shock to see them suddenly turn things on. Though Purdue and Illinois have similar record, Purdue has fought hard and has been in every single game. Illinois hasn't even been close, and they have rolled over and died since the opener against Missouri.

The one Illinois blog, Hail to the Orange, has already virtually given up and jumped to basketball content. Their last two game wraps of Rock Bottom and Failing on all Cylinders show that confidence in the football program is at an all time low. There is no doubt that Illinois has more talent than a lot of teams, but that talent is severely underperforming in all phases of the game at the moment. They are even one of the most penalized teams in the league. I am not even going to mention the gigantic Ron Zook intangible right now. Every writer in the Big Ten is saying enough about his epic level of fail at the moment.

Contractually obligated Ron Zook blog picture. He will likely soon have plenty of time for his hobbies, such as fighting Boilerdowd to the death.

Purdue, meanwhile, is as high as it has been in about five years. Even the 8-6 season of 2006 and 8-5 season of 2007 did not have a moment that was a tenth as important as last week against Ohio State. As long as we don't go out and pull a Northern Illinois we will be fine.

Keys to the game for Purdue:

Hogtie the team that showed up against Northern Illinois
Don't turn the ball over
Maintain last week's momentum
Run the ball with Bolden, McBurse, and Taylor
Dominate along the defensive line

If the Illini want to win any games in the Big Ten, they have to beat IU

Joe Kutsunis — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:56:36 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

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Game 6, the game which marks the half way point in the season, also a mark that more or less will seal the fate of any hopes for post season play. A win would put the team at 2-4 and technically still alive for a bowl game, a loss would put the team at 5 losses, and with a top 10 Cincinnati team and still on the schedule a 6th loss is almost guaranteed.

Worse though a loss this weekend would be to a team that before the season began was considered the worst team in the league. If the Illini lose to Indiana, what does that make the Illini?

Don't get me wrong, I am not expecting a loss on Saturday, this is still the same Hoosier team that gave up 55 to us last year, and the same Hoosier team that was thumped 47 to 7 last week against against Virginia. You know Al Groh's Virginia? The UVA team that lost to 1AA William and Mary? Yeah they got blown out by those guys.

Indiana should be an absolute slam dunk of a game, at almost every position last year they could not compete with the Illini. It is very telling then that even with all of this seemingly in favor of the Illini, I am still not confident.

Why should I be? What evidence does any fan have that this team will come out and play any better than it has? We can trash IU all we want (and we will) but frankly they have played better than the Illini this season. Hell they have 3 wins, which is 2 more than us. Indiana is a very bad football team, and to this point in the season we are worse.

Zook has yet to name a starter for Saturday, but the consensus among the media seems that it ought to be Juice. The second half against MSU last week was the best he has played all season and he has probably earned his chance to at least play his last games as a college player, rather than watch from the bench.

You never say that any game is a must win, but this game is a must win. I don''t want to break down what the Illini need to do to beat Indiana, because frankly if they played up to their potential it would take almost no game planning what so ever. We ran our basic offense up against this team last year and blew them off of the field. Jason Ford and Daniel Dufrene and Mikel Leshoure should run roughshod over this team. By far the toughest part of the schedule is behind us, if this team wants to make anything redeeming at all out of this season, it cannot wait another week.

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

SB Nation - Mikel LeShoure

The Final Word on the 2009 Fighting Illini football Season

Illini fall to Fresno State in least likely way possible.

The Illini lose to Northwestern, reality comes back with a vengeance

The march of destruction continues: Illini over Minnesota recap

Illini at Minnesota preview: part of the plan all along.

Illini beat Michigan, make football fun to watch again.

Well that was fun. Illini get nasty on Michigan 38-13

Alright guys, don't blow it now

If the Illini want to win any games in the Big Ten, they have to beat IU

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview