SB Nation - Grant Mahoney

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Cy-Hawk Week: Prediction Time!

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:34:21 -0000

Here we are about 24 hours from kickoff, which to me means is the perfect time to predict the outcome of the Iowa-Iowa State game.

Unlike the other opponents, I'm not going to break down both sides in depth. Chances are you watched both the ISU and Iowa game, or at least have already heard or read the breakdowns of both sides. No reason to regurgitate what has been already said.

As I browse around on the Internet, I see all of the same questions being asked and answered: "Is Iowa State going to be able to stop the run?", "How will ISU attack the Iowa defense?", "How will Stanzi play?", "Will Moeaki have another big game?", etc.

What I do not hear anyone talk about is the most important phase of the game: Special Teams.

Honestly, that's the key to this game. All of the other key stats do not matter as much (yards, first downs, turnovers, time of possession, etc)

Don't believe me? Let's look at the past few years:

2006 (Iowa 27, ISU 17)

Total Offense: Iowa (410 vs. 323)
Rushing Yards: ISU (171 vs. 136)
Passing Yards: Iowa (274 vs. 152)
First Downs: Iowa (22 vs. 18)
Turnover Margin: ISU + 1
Penalties: Tied, although Iowa had more penalty yards (5-57 vs. 5-35)
Time of Possession:ISU (31:37 vs. 28:23)
3rd Down Conversions: Tied (6 of 13 each)
Red Zone %: Tied at 100%
Sacks: Iowa (2 vs. 1)

For the most part, you see that Iowa has a better offense and they won, and they had the advantage of some key stats, but there were a couple of other key statistics:

FGs: ISU was 1/2 while Iowa was 2/2... In a 10 point game that obviously matters
Punt Returns: Iowa averaged 20.3 yards/punt return. There were two times that Brodell took punts to the 50 yard line. That's huge for field position and set up a short field which Iowa took advantage of and scored, you guess it, 10 points! Obviously you can't tell what would've happened if things were different, but you can't just give the short field to the other team either.

Let's continue on and look at the 2007 game, with the same key statistics:

2007 (ISU 15, Iowa 13)

Total Offense: ISU (300 vs. 233)
Rushing Yards: ISU (143 vs. 115)
Passing Yards: ISU (157 vs. 118)
First Downs: ISU (17 vs. 16)
Turnover Margin: Iowa +1
Penalties: Iowa (2-20 vs. 3-30)
Time of Possession: ISU (31:00 vs. 29:00)
3rd Down Conversions: ISU (7 of 18 vs. 3 of 13)
Red Zone %: ISU (100% vs. 66%)
Sacks: ISU (4 vs. 0)

You look at all of those stats and you may think it's pretty obvious that ISU won the game, but even with all of the battles ISU won, they still had to drive down the field and set up for a last second field goal.

If you take a look at the special teams this time, punt returns were even (2 for 22 ISU vs. 2 for 23 Iowa), but what changed the game was ISU blocking an Iowa FG in the 4th quarter, and obviously ISU making the last second FG in the end. Had ISU not blocked that field goal, they would've had to score a TD to win it, and that probably would not have happened.

Now let's look at 2008, same stats:

2008 (Iowa 17, ISU 5)

Total Offense: ISU (325 vs. 244)
Rushing Yards: Iowa (122 vs. 73)
Passing Yards: ISU (252 vs. 122)
First Downs: ISU (18 vs. 11)
Turnover Margin: Iowa +1
Penalties: Iowa (7-53 vs. 6-60)
Time of Possession: ISU (32:19 vs. 27:41)
3rd Down Conversions: Iowa (4 of 12 vs. 4 of 15)
Red Zone %: Iowa (66% vs. 0%)
Sacks: Tied (1 each)

From the first two games, you saw a correlation between offense and wins. Well, last year was not the case at all. You can see that ISU moved the ball well, picked up more 1st downs, controlled the clock, but lost. The obvious answer is again, Special Teams:

ISU was 1 of 4 with Field Goals, missing from 38 yards, 21 yards, and 46 yards. Say he makes the 38 and 21 yarder, and take away the gimme safety ISU got at the end, and you have a 17-9 game.
Then look at the punt returns: Brodell takes a punt 81 yards for a TD. Had ISU held him, perhaps a 3 and out would've occured; it's not like Iowa was moving the ball at will. Take away the TD, it's a 10-9 game.

Sitting there with a 10-9 game in the fourth quarter may have changed the outcome of the game. After that Punt for a TD, remember ISU got to 3rd and Goal on the Iowa 1. They rushed up the middle, and losses3 yards. Had it been 10-9, ISU kicks the field goal, pick up the 3 points, and it's a 12-10 game with 3:00 left. Instead, ISU was down 17-3, had to go for it, and didn't get the TD.

It's impossible to say what would've happened if things had gone differently, but it was the special teams play that caused ISU to lose a game that was winnable. Conversely it was in 2007 in which better special teams play from ISU caused them to win a game that they probably should have lost.

At the end of the day, in a series with games as close as they've been over the last decade, it's the little things that determine the winner. Special Teams is such a huge part in determining the outcome of the game, and frankly I am suprised by how little it's talked about when previewing this game.

Prediction: Staying with the theme, I think this game comes down to Special Teams: whoever makes the most plays on Special Teams (or limits the big plays on Special Teams) will win the game. I'll go ISU 24, Iowa 23, with Mahoney kicking a field goal to win the game.

Is it Saturday yet???

Week 1 Postgame: Iowa State 34, North Dakota State 17

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 06:01:33 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads, center, celebrates with his father, Cecil, after his team defeated North Dakota State 34-17 in an NCAA college football game Thursday, Sept. 3, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Final - 9.3.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
North Dakota St. Bison	0	10	7	0	17
Iowa St. Cyclones	7	10	17	7	34

Complete Coverage >

Iowa State came out with an opening week win in the first game of the Paul Rhoads era. Not a surprising result. The Bison would have had to play a perfect game to beat ISU, and of course they didn't, because perfect games do not come often. The Bison could have had another TD if their QB (Mertens) didn't fumble in the end zone, but the defense made a play, and it's part of the game. I will give the Bison some credit, as the game was closer for longer than I thought.

Here are my takeaways from the game:

The Good:

The concept of the no-huddle offense. I really liked it. There's less downtime between plays, plus A-Rob is so solid you can go from a 4 WR to 5 WR set without making any substitutions. The playcalling was pretty vanilla (save for a WR-reverse pass by Reynolds that was incomplete), which was expected. I would hope to see ISU open up the playbook more as they get more comfortable and face tougher opponents.
The Iowa State offense has some play makers. Marquis Hamilton looked good, and Darius Reynolds is definitely a guy who can turn into a big play threat once he gets more comfortable in the system. I liked the way Reynolds was utilized. He is the kind of guy you do bubble screens and short slants to, as he can make things happen in the open field.
The Iowa State secondary. No one got burned in coverage and the secondary was able to keep passes in front of them.
Grant Mahoney nailing 2/3 FGs including a 50 yarder. He missed a 57 yard attempt going into the half, but you can't hold that against a college kicker.

More Analysis on the next page!

Areas of Improvement:

Overall there are a lot of areas the team can improve. No football team is ever content with how they are during Week 1, and the well coached teams continue to improve all year. Naturally this list will be a bit longer to start the season, but as the season continues, hopefully this list gets smaller, and maybe some will turn into strengths

Getting the offense on the same page. Handfuls of dropped passes as WRs started looking up field instead of getting the sure catch. There were a couple of miscues as Arnaud's fumble was on a play where he thought he should hand it off to A-Rob (and A-Rob apparently thought it was a QB draw). There was some miscommunication at times between Arnaud and the WRs as well. These are things that can be fixed as the players get comfortable in the system. It's hard to simulate game-speed in practice, and everything happens a little quicker with the adrenaline rush.
The Defensive Line. They got pushed around quite a bit on running plays, as NDSU averaged 5.5 yards per rush. ISU also had a hard time getting pressure on Mertens. There were many times where Mertens had a lot of time to throw, and the handful of times they got in the backfield, they took some bad routes in trying to sack him. I am very concerned with how ISU will do next week against a more talented offensive line, as Iowa looks to be very solid (as in potentially the top of the Big 10 good).
The Linebacking Corps. They were slow in pass coverage, had some mistackles, and didn't stay home on the end-arounds. Paschall is a good running back without a doubt, but there were some weak arm tackles that allow for the 62 yard run. In general, there was bad tackling with this unit (and the secondary on running plays) as they were trying to strip the ball too much instead of getting the sure-tackle (typically resulting in a couple of extra yards). Don't get me wrong; turnovers are huge, but you can't make a 3 yard run a 6 yard run because you were going for the strip instead of bringing the guy down.

Props To:

Austen Arnaud - 16/28 for 227 yards and 2 TDs. Also had 17 carries for 78 carries and 1 TD. The completion percentage would have been higher if not for a handful of drops, and considering it's his first game in his 3rd offensive system, I think he did a good job minimizing damage.
Marquis Hamilton - 4 catches for 97 yards and 2 TDs. He looked pretty quick for a possession receiver. Either he's improved his speed, or the NDSU secondary was slow (or both), as on both TDs he simply outran guys (the first one he was open on a slant because of a NDSU linebacker blitz, but he out ran the safeties for the TD).
Darius Reynolds - 6 catches for 56 yards, should've had a TD pass as well. Overall a solid debut. There were a couple of drops but he'll figure it out.
Alexander Robinson - 83 rushing yards on 16 carries including a TD. Also 3 catches for 36 yards
David Sims - 3 kick returns for 111 yards (37 yard average), including a 60 yard return that could've gone all the way had the kicker been blocked. He also had 1 INT on defense.
Grant Mahoney - 2/3 on field goals including a 50 yarder
Mike Bradnter - 49.3 punt average on 4 punts
Pat Paschall (RB, NDSU) - 21 carries for 146 yards (including a 62 yard run), and 1 TD.
NDSU offensive line. Mertens had good protection for most of the game, and the Bison were able to average 5.5 yards/carry which is very solid.

It's nice to see the Cyclones win, but it wasn't as convincing as some would've liked. On offense, ISU stopped themselves by miscues as opposed to NDSU stopping them. On defense, it's going to be another long year I feel. If they allow 5.5 yards/carry against more challenging opponents, a lot of points will go on the board for our opponents.

Next week is the Hawks. Clone Chronicles will take a little break over the holiday weekend, but will be back on Sunday night, and in full swing on Tuesday.

Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day weekend all!

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

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The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

First Scrimmage Recap

Mark Kieffer — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 02:59:44 -0000

This past Saturday, August 15th, the Cyclones had their first scrimmage of the season. From the reactions of the coaches, it sounded like the team has a lot of work to do.

Coach Rhoads did specifically mention that he was impressed with Beau Blankenship's efforts running the ball, along with Darius Reynolds' kick returning, and Grant Mahoney's kicking.

DC Wally Burnham sounded encouraged with the results. He mentioned that the defense is vulnerable in the redzone, but he was pleased with the turnovers the defense forced.

OC Tom Herman did not sound pleased with the quarterback play. Apparently there were quite a few turnovers. Herman said "An interception is always the fault of the quarterback".

So what do I make of all of this?

Well, I think that building two new systems is difficult for players. Take Austen Arnaud for example. This is his third new offensive system he's had to learn while in college (remember, he did redshirt under McCarney). That's asking a lot out of these guys. It does not suprise me much that so many mistakes were made, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Going back and reading through some reports of when Herman first came to Rice, the offense didn't really get going until mid-October of his first year. It is my hope the players can catch on as the season gets rolling, but at this point, I'd expect there to be a lot of mistakes.

Regarding the defense, it's difficult to really know what to make of them, especially since I hadn't attended the scrimmage. Did the defense make amazing interceptions, or did the Quarterbacks just throw it right to the secondary? If I were to guess based on the coaches reactions, I would say probably the latter, but I honestly do not know and perhaps someone who's reading does.

If you think about it, the defense probably should be looking better than the offense right now. With defense, even though there is a new scheme and new terminology, the job is still to react off of the offense. On the offensive side, there are new formations, completely new plays, etc. Maybe I am biased, but I think there is a lot more to learn for the offense.

I also think the consequences of making a mistake are different as well. On offense, if you make a mistake, you are going to give the ball to the other team. On defense, as long as you don't give up the big play, you just have to wipe it off and start over on the next first down. On offense you have to be as close to perfect as possible, while on defense you need to shake it off and hope to make something happen the next play.

What I am looking forward to the most, is an updated two deep. With Blankenship, I expected him to redshirt, but I guess you never know. From all accounts, it sounds like Arnuad is firmly the #1 QB, so even though mistakes were made, don't expect any kind of a change there. If it really was that bad on the offensive side of the ball, I am wondering if there will be a lot of changes there.

Hopefully the Cyclones can learn from this scrimmage and use that to get better over the next two weeks. I don't think we'll need to be perfect to beat NDSU, but you can't make mistakes and give the game away either.

With each passing day, I look forward to another season of college football! Just a little over two weeks away!

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we looked at an Iowa State offense that has shown glimpses of potential...but nearly enough of them to keep up in the Big 12 arms race. Now to the defense, which has shown...well...much less potential.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 89.6 (#93)
Success Rate+: 92.1 (#90)
PPP+: 86.8 (#96)

Standard Downs S&P+: 91.0 (#94)
Passing Downs S&P+: 82.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 85.8 (#105)

Q1 S&P+: 102.2 (#56)
Q2 S&P+: 80.1 (#112)
Q3 S&P+: 93.9 (#80)
Q4 S&P+: 81.3 (#118)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#79)
2nd Down S&P+: 84.1 (#104)
3rd Down S&P+: 81.5 (#109)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 96.6 (#76)
Rushing SR+: 99.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 92.6 (#81)

Standard Downs: 97.1 (#75)
Passing Downs: 85.3 (#92)

Redzone: 80.8 (#112)

Line Yards+: 99.9 (#55)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 81.8 (#109)
Passing SR+: 84.0 (#115)
Passing PPP+: 79.7 (#102)

Standard Downs: 83.2 (#113)
Passing Downs: 80.6 (#104)

Redzone: 88.7 (#86)

Adj. Sack Rate: 85.1 (#79)

Where Iowa State was good (or at least decent):

Line Yards+ (i.e. defensive line run support)
Q1 Defense

End of list. Despite being a smidge undersized, the defensive line did stand up well to run blocking, and they were on par with Kansas in terms of pass rushing, so we'll call the D-line a relative strength. And from their first-quarter success, we'll derive that they, in general, had decent enough game plans but not the talent/in-game adjustments to survive over 60 minutes.

Beyond that? Pretty much all bad. I make general assumptions sometimes with the data, assumptions like "Teams coached by prodigies who were previously strong defensive coordinators will tend to be pretty good on Passing Downs." No dice here. The 'Clones were bad on Standard Downs and REALLY bad on Passing Downs. And despite the presence of a seemingly very good freshman cornerback, it does appear that their secondary was about as bad as bad gets.

Defensive Line

Nate Frere...way better than his brother, Nick.

2008 Unit Ranking: #76 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Nate Frere (6'1, 283, Sr.)
DE Christopher Lyle (6'4, 252, Sr.)
DE Rashawn Parker (6'0, 260, Sr.)
DT Austin Alburtis (6'2, 267, Jr.)
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer (6'3, 290, So.)
DT Bailey Johnson (6'3, 272, Jr.)
DE Roosevelt Maggitt (6'2, 237, RSFr.)
DE Cleyon Laing (6'3, 268, RSFr.)

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

At end, Rashawn Parker (2.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QBH) has shown potential over the years, but he was pretty terrible in 2008. Though he's a "returning starter" he was far outplayed by Christopher Lyle (13.0 sacks/TFL, 2 QBH, 2 forced fumbles). Unfortunately, both are seniors, so it's likely that they've done whatever developing they're going to do. Best-case scenario here is that one of the RSFr ends breaks into the rotation pretty well and gives them a little continuity for 2010, as they're losing their top three (projected) linemen to graduation (or at least exhausted eligibility) after this year.

Linebackers

What a great picture this is. I bet Jesse Smith's mom has a few copies of this one.

2008 Unit Ranking: #94 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jesse Smith (6'0, 231, Sr.)
Fred Garrin (6'2, 230, Sr.)
Justin Rumple (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Josh Raven (5'11, 230, Sr.)
Matt Taufoou (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Derec Schmidgall (6'2, 230, Sr.)

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it. If there's a silver lining in this unit, it's Matt Taufoou, a late commitment to Rhoads who, if I read correctly, was initially committed to Tennessee. He comes to Ames with a decent JUCO resume, and lord knows there's a starting spot waiting for him if he can quickly prove himself.

Secondary

Leonard Johnson was a straight-up stud as a freshman.

2008 Unit Ranking: #109 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.)
S James Smith (5'9, 191, Sr.)
S Zac Sandvig (5'10, 190, Jr.)
CB Ter'ran Benton (6'1, 196, So.)
S David Sims (5'10, 212, Jr.)
CB Kennard Banks (5'10, 189, Sr.)
CB Devin McDowell (5'9, 177, Jr.)
S Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.)

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

Again, there's a sliver of hope here in the form of a player who initially committed to a good team. You've got Bo Williams (originally of Florida) at running back, Taufoou at linebacker, and now David Sims, who originally signed with OU out of JUCO in 2008 (and then...well, I'm not really sure what happened, but now he's in Ames), stepping in at safety. As with Taufoou, there is a starting spot available if he can come in and prove himself.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 Net Punting, #52 Punt Returns, #12 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Grant Mahoney (6'1, 154, So.) - 33-for-33 PAT, 17-for-25 FG (Long: 48)
P Mike Brandtner (6'1, 211, Sr.) - 51 Punts, 35.6 Net
KR Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.) - 41 Returns, 26.4 Avg
PR Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.) - 9 returns, 8.6 Avg

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Summary

When you're relying on JUCO transfers to significantly boost your athleticism, you're probably in trouble. But between Frere, Je. Smith, and Johnson, there is at least one solid player in each unit, which is something. I don't want to come down too hard on Iowa State here--they're playing in a relatively weak division and can certainly knock off a division rival or two--but it really does seem like it will take Paul Rhoads a couple of years to build the talent level up to something worthwhile. Like Bill Snyder, he'll be able to pretty quickly work some of his own recruits into the rotation with the number of mediocre seniors this defense has, but that also means that in his second year he will have an extremely young D...which usually isn't a good thing.

---

Projections on Friday.

Spring game postgame thoughts

JustinKendall — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 22:42:41 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

8 months ago: Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud, left, breaks from defender Roosevelt Maggitt, right, during Iowa State's annual spring football game, Saturday, April 18, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Browse more photos »

The Cyclones have a long way to go. I'm hopeful but tempering expectations (last spring was rough, too). I didn't take notes, but here are my quick thoughts.

First team offense got off to a really slow start. Too many dropped balls. Some open, easy catches were dropped. But Sedrick Johnson had a good day - nine catches for 100 yards.
Jesse Smith and Kennard Banks both intercepted the ball. Smith returned his pick for a touchdown.
Backup quarterback Jerome Tiller looked really good, breaking a long run for a TD.
Despite a hamstring injury, receiver Darius Darks played.
Jeremiah Schwartz lived up to his billing as a bruising back. Bo Williams busted a nice run.
Grant Mahoney hit all three field goal attempts. Zach Guyer had a rough day.
The PA announcer kept calling defensive end Roosevelt Maggitt and linebacker Josh Raven's names. Raven seemed to be in on a lot of tackles.
A little worried about how easily the defense was getting to Arnaud, who had a less than spectacular day.

Update: Arnaud quietly completed 22-of-35 and ended the game with 250 yards and touchdown. Maybe I hung too much on the early pair of interceptions.

Check out the AP's recap here.

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

The Takeaway: Iowa State

Oops Pow Surprise — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 00:01:30 -0000

Sure, Iowa just outlasted an underwhelming Iowa State team, 17-5. But how much do we really know? What was really important about beating ISU? What does it all mean, Basil? The Takeaway has the answer.

In the most gruesome play of the afternoon, Matt Kroul rips Iowa State quarterback Austin Arnaud's head off. No penalty was called, as Kroul did not grip the face mask.

The Hawkeye defense is as deep as it is tough. For the third time in as many games this season, Iowa held its opponent out of the end zone, limiting the Cyclones to five lousy points; ISU's points came from a made field goal and two pity points after kicker Grant Mahoney clanged a kick from 21 yards away.

The third quarter looked disturbingly similar to the first half of last season's Iowa-ISU game, where the ball was on Iowa's side of the field the whole time. This time, the Cyclones couldn't even put points on the board with special teams. All credit goes to what might end up being the stoutest defense in the conference. While most of the top-end talent is on the defensive line, there are no real weak spots in terms of athleticism, performance, or depth.

Nowhere is that more ably demonstrated than the secondary. If you'd told us that Jordan Bernstine would barely be on the two-deeps at this point, we'd be horrified at the prospects for the pass defense. Sure enough, as he recovers from hamstring problems, Bernstine is essentially the fourth corner on the depth chart, and those in front of him are showing no signs of relenting any snaps. Bradley Fletcher has improved demonstrably from last year, Amari Spievey is the surest tackler at CB for Iowa since Benny Sapp, and true freshman Shaun Prater was in at crunch time, breaking up ISU's last gasp in the back of the end zone on fourth down.

All in all, though Austen Arnaud seemed to pick apart the Iowa pass defense at times, the Clones couldn't get in the end zone again (it's been more than 10 quarters since they've hit pay dirt vs. Iowa), and the Iowa defense is now ranked third nationally in pass efficiency. Credit should also go to the linebackers, especially AJ Edds, but great pass defense starts in the secondary, and Iowa is rock-solid there.

Another example? Why, sure. Harold Dalton started all last season at strong safety, and he was no liability. Then, during spring practices, coaches frequently mentioned Dalton's backup, Lance Tillison (who, by the way, is jacked as hell), as a strong contender to start. So with both Tillison and Dalton healthy, the coaches started Tyler Sash, a freshman from Oskaloosa. Sash responded with 12 tackles, a key third-down sack, and a goal-line interception that he ran out to the one-yard-line before walking out of bounds. That was one boneheaded play in an otherwise brilliant debut for Sash, who should be a strong contender for the BXI's defensive player of the week honors.

Broderick Binns is also good.

You want more? We'll give you more. Pat Angerer's first two years at Iowa were disasters, last season marked by mononucleosis and a variety of injuries. He thought about quitting football, and few would have questioned him. He stayed, and on Saturday he usurped Jacody Coleman, who started multiple games as a true freshman last season in relief of Mike Klinkenborg. Angerer was flying around the field all day against ISU, but no play was bigger than him blowing up a screen pass on third and short with Iowa protecting a 10-3 lead. Iowa State was forced to punt, and this happened:

Ballgame.

Iowa's ground game is no longer a question mark. Shonn Greene's numbers look good on their own: 20 carries, 120 yards, one touchdown. That they came in the rain is seemingly no surprise, as rain is supposed to help a ground game (and let's be clear, in dry conditions, he doesn't sneak out of that tackle and gain 31 yards in the first quarter). But make no mistake, Greene would have easily topped 150 yards on a decent field yesterday.

Greene slipped several times on the slick surface, usually every time he tried to make a hard cut. Thanks to outstanding blocking from Bryan Bulaga and the rest of the offensive line, Greene rarely encountered any trouble near the line of scrimmage, and when he did, his strength was enough to carry him forward for respectable numbers. Perhaps ISU's just miserable in the front seven, but we're not so quick to discount the quality of what appears to be Iowa's most brutish ground game since the days of Nick Bell.

The Surgeon General recommends that you avoid trying to tackle Shonn Greene at all costs. Also, eat 4-6 servings of vegetables every day.

Iowa's passing game, on the other hand, is more of a concern than ever. Oh boy, where do we even start? How about Stanzi to Brodell in the first quarter? Having drawn ISU offsides on a hard count, Stanzi had a free play, and he rolled out to his right, looking long. There was Andy Brodell, who was laughably, insanely open. Rather than squaring his shoulders and planting his feet, Stanzi threw on the run, despite no evident pressure from the ISU rush. The pass sailed and missed Brodell by about three yards, and what should have been an easy touchdown to put the Cyclones down by 10 early instead fell to the ground harmlessly. A false start erased the five-yard bonus of the offsides call immediately afterwards, and the Iowa drive would end in an interception. Indeed, Iowa wouldn't see those points until the fourth quarter, well after the end of the Ricky Stanzi Experience.

Stanzi's overall numbers were as horrifying as his play seemed to indicate: 5-14, 75 yards, 0 touchdowns, two interceptions. The second pick was so ill-advised that Ferentz had no choice to bring in Christensen--it was a curl route into triple coverage that wouldn't have even garnered a first down on third and long. Stanzi sailed passes all game long, including one on third down in the end zone to an easily open Allen Reisner on the game's first drive. Between that and the Brodell debacle, Stanzi left 11 points off the board for Iowa on those two throws. It's tough to say whether Christensen would have erred so badly on the same two plays.

Christensen entered the game with one play remaining in the third quarter. He started the drive with a checkdown pass to Shonn Greene, who motored ahead for a first down, and later Christensen made arguably the most important move of the game without throwing the ball. Facing 3rd and a long 4 at the ISU 25, Christensen audibled to an off-tackle run for Greene, who took it inside the Clones' 5-yard-line. Greene scored on the next play, and Iowa had all the momentum from there on out.

Don't tackle him, it only makes him mad.

Christensen still looked shaky, though, despite converting four of his five passes. Only the pass to Greene resulted in over five yards or a first down, and Iowa went three and out while trying to protect that 10-3 lead late in the fourth.

Anyone who tells you right now who will start at Pittsburgh this Saturday is either guessing or lying. They don't know. Kirk Ferentz doesn't even know. So naturally we don't know. We do know that nobody was booing Jake when he came in this week, and nobody's going to be booing him for a while after Iowa hoisted that stupid-looking trophy that ought to be thrown into a volcano like some sort of reverse sucktastic Ring of Sauron. The QB race continues, and as long as Iowa keeps winning, that's just fine.

It may be a shitty trophy, but it's our shitty trophy.

Photo credits, top to bottom: John Schultz, Lee News Service/QC Times; John Schultz, Lee News Service/QC Times; Doug Dornath, HawkeyeSports.com; John Schultz, Lee News Service/QC Times; AP Photo/Charlie Niebergall; John Schultz, Lee News Service/QC Times