SB Nation - Darius Darks

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Be sure to check out the Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine comparison after the jump.

	Iowa St. (24)	Mizzou (34)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	44.1%	52.5%
Leverage %	69.1%	82.5%

TOTAL
EqPts	20.7	31.7
Close Success Rate	48.5%	57.5%
Close PPP	0.30	0.40
Close S&P	0.790	0.971

RUSHING
EqPts	6.6	13.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	56.3%
Close PPP	0.28	0.28
Close S&P	0.776	0.838
Line Yards/carry	3.14	3.07

PASSING
EqPts	14.1	18.4
Close Success Rate	47.7%	59.4%
Close PPP	0.32	0.58
Close S&P	0.797	1.170
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 15.8%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	55.3%	60.6%
PPP	0.29	0.46
S&P	0.842	1.064

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	33.3%	42.9%
PPP	0.34	0.11
S&P	0.673	0.534

TURNOVERS
Number	2	1
Turnover Pts	6.7	3.6
Turnover Pts Margin	-3.1	+3.1

Q1 S&P	1.002	0.924
Q2 S&P	0.887	0.682
Q3 S&P	0.725	1.515
Q4 S&P	0.348	0.819

1st Down S&P	0.782	1.262
2nd Down S&P	1.042	0.810
3rd Down S&P	0.294	0.565

Projected Pt. Margin	-14.1	+14.1
Actual Pt. Margin	-10	+10

Quick reactions...

Obviously very nice offensive output for Mizzou, though with an 82.5% Leverage Rate (which means that 82.5% of Mizzou's offensive plays were run on Standard Downs and only 17.5% on Passing Downs) you'd have almost expected more success. Then again, Mizzou was quite unsuccessful on those Passing Downs, as they have been all year. Which, really, is pretty healthy. Passing Downs success comes with experience, and while Mizzou has shown on Standard Downs that they are plenty talented and athletic, they don't yet have the chops for Passing Downs. It'll come.
That said, Mizzou did have a 42.9% success rate on Passing Downs, which was pretty good; in fact, I'd say that while PPP is probably more important on Standard Downs, success rate is more important on Passing Downs, and Mizzou showed some nice progress in that regard.
Gotta say, ISU's rushing success rate was higher than I expected. It really didn't feel like the Cyclones ever really got going on the ground, as evidenced by Alexander Robinson's 14 carries for 56 yards (4.0 per carry), but they were just efficient enough to keep them moving forward, and they were able to utilize the shorter passes because they had fewer yards to go to move the chains. Of course, ISU's offensive output got worse with every passing quarter, so it only worked for so long.
As demonstrated in last week's preview, Iowa State potentially has the best offensive line in the North division, and Mizzou held up relatively well. ISU did average a strong 3.14 line yards per carry, and Austen Arnaud was never sacked on Standard Downs, but Mizzou's three Passing Downs sacks were drive-killers and potentially made the difference in the game.
I also said in last week's preview that ISU's pass rush was so weak that any sack allowed would be too many. Well...0 is a pretty good number, no? That's two straight weeks where Mizzou faced a weaker pass rush but didn't slip up even once.

Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine

The difference between Blaine Gabbert's one-legged production and two-legged production is simply staggering at this point.

Healthy Blaine
Stats: 182-for-278 passing, 2,487 yards, 21 TD, 2 INT; 63 carries, 156 yards, 2 TD
Rates: 65.5% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 7.6% TD rate, 0.7% INT rate; 2.5 yards per carry

Injured Blaine:
Stats: 42-for-95 passing, 512 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT; 14 carries, -22 yards, 1 TD
Rates: 44.2% completion rate, 5.4 yards per pass, 1.1% TD rate, 5.3% INT rate; -1.6 yards per carry

Just a simply insane difference, even in the rushing stats.

But there's an obvious disclaimer here: Mizzou faced the Nebraska and Texas defenses while injured, and his stats wouldn't have been as good in those games even if healthy. So the question for today is, what would he have produced against Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas if healthy?

Thanks to the "+" measures, we can create a pretty good estimate. To do so, we're going to look at one specific measure: Passing PPP+, or EqPts per Pass. As you know, EqPts create an estimated point value for every play (and the "+" is the schedule adjustment), so if we can determine what Mizzou's PPP+ was for Healthy Blaine and Injured Blaine, we can estimate what Missouri may have produced if Injured Blaine never happened. (And we're keeping rushing stats out of the equation to keep things simple.)

Passing PPP+, Healthy Blaine: 149.4
Passing PPP+, Injured Blaine: 92.1

So even taking opponent strength into account, Injured Blaine produced 62% of what Healthy Blaine produced, which is just a tremendous drop-off. So if we take the Healthy Blaine PPP+ and apply it to the passes thrown by Injured Blaine, you get the following added production (assuming the exact same number of passes were thrown against NU/OSU/UT, which of course is a faulty premise, but it's what we've got):

vs Nebraska: +2.0 Passing EqPts (the rain was going to wipe out a good portion of the passing attack regardless)
vs Oklahoma State: +7.7 Passing EqPts
vs Texas: +2.6 Passing EqPts

That's an addition of 12.3 EqPts, or almost two touchdowns. Who knows if the timing of those points would have changed the outcome of either the NU or OSU games, but that's not the point of this exercise. Taking some super-rough estimates into account, here's a guess at what Gabbert might have produced in the 95 Injured Blaine passes if healthy:

58-for-95 passing, 810 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT

Which means we'd be looking at a season line of this:

Blaine Gabbert, New 2009
Stats: 240-for-373 passing, 3,307 yards, 24 TD, 4 INT
Rates: 64.3% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 6.4% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate

And this doesn't even take into account that he barely played in the second half of the Texas game.

Just as means of comparison...

Chase Daniel, 2006
Stats: 287-for-452, 3,527 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT
Rates: 63.5% completion rate, 7.8 yards per pass, 6.2% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate

Gabbert would be slightly better across the board. You would expect him to have better yards per pass figures just because of his strong arm, but better completion, TD, and INT rates? Yikes.

Now think about this: what would Danario Alexander's numbers look like right now with no Gimpy Blaine? Of the 16 extra completions and 298 extra yards, he'd have probably snagged about 7 and 125 of them, giving him about 99 catches for 1,536 yards. That would bump him from third to second in the country in receptions per game, and from third to first in the country in receiving yards per game.

(And he still wouldn't be a Biletnikoff finalist.)

Three Positives

Diminishing Returns. Iowa State's offense proved what I always say about the dink-and-dunk attack: you can get away with it for a while, but unless you're able to go deep, you can't get away with it forever. Darius Darks' end-of-first-half 38-yard touchdown catch was really the only deeper pass the Cyclones completed, and thanks to their lack of a deep threat, Mizzou was able to play closer to the line than normal and get away with it. Eventually, the yards and points dried up, as ISU managed just 105 yards and 7 points after halftime, and just 8 yards in the fourth quarter.

This is at least somewhat good news, as there is no doubt that KU will be utilizing as many short passes as they can get away with on Saturday. They tried it last year, and it eventually wore down Mizzou's defense since Mizzou's offense performed so terribly for most of the first half. If Mizzou's offense does its job and puts some points on the board early, it will be harder for KU to take shots downfield against a tired defense, and even though KU still has Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, if Mizzou stays fresh, they can defend KU's offense at least relatively well as the game progresses.
Dave Yost. Missouri still has some work to do to get Blaine Gabbert up into the Chase Daniel Department when it comes to performance on passing downs, but Mizzou's standard downs performance Saturday was simply fantastic, and some credit for that has to go to the puppet master in the press box, Dave Yost. He was crushed by Mizzou fans a few games ago for not knowing what plays to call to get an offense led by an injured quarterback to score points against some great defenses, but ... well, no offensive coordinator in the country would have engineered much in that situation. Yes, Mizzou could have tried to run the ball more, but it simply would not have made much of a difference. But if he gets crushed when Mizzou struggles, he deserves a ton of credit when Mizzou is operating smoothly, and without their #1 RB in the second half and their #2 WR all game, Mizzou's offense was the definition of smooth against Iowa State.
Jerrell Jackson. We all know what Danario Alexander can do, but Mizzou needed another weapon on Saturday to compensate for the loss of Jared Perry and to prevent Iowa State from quintuple-teaming Alexander, and Jackson stepped up, to the tune of 142 receiving yards (just 31 behind Alexander) and 12 rushing yards, his second straight game combining for over 100 yards. He is a tremendous athlete, and if he can get that whole "hands" thing under control, he could be a lovely weapon for Mizzou in 2010-11. But speaking of the hands...

Three Negatives

Jerrell Jackson. As I posted on Twitter during the game, I'm really developing quite the love-hate relationship with this guy. If not for his drops, we might have won the OSU game even with a gimpy Gabbert. And if not for his drops and fumble, ISU probably would not have led at halftime. But without his catches, Mizzou might not have caught up to ISU. Still, though, while Gabbert probably needs to do a better job of throwing into Jackson's body to avoid the possibility of a drop, Jackson needs to do whatever he can to become a more reliable receiving weapon this offseason--catching 1,000,000 of Gabbert's fastballs, getting contacts, whatever. He might be the default #1 WR next year, and if he can't consistently catch the ball ... well ... that's not good.
ISU's Passing Success Rate. For the game, ISU's passing success rate of 47.7% wasn't too great, but in the first half it was far too high. As I mentioned above, it's hard to make the dink-and-dunk work all game, but it was working a lot early on, even with Mizzou giving smaller cushions than normal. In Q1, ISU's passing success rate was 72.7% (8-for-11), and after misfiring on the first three passes of Q2, ISU finished the half on a 55.6% clip (5-for-9). As we know, that resulted in 17 points, and then the spigot went dry. However, against KU, a rate like that might result in about 21-24 points, so even though this ended up a positive for MU, it's a reason to be at least slightly nervous about what KU might do.
Kickoff Coverage. Here are ISU's starting field positions following Mizzou kickoffs:

ISU 27, ISU 46, ISU 36, ISU 31, ISU 32, ISU 20, ISU 34

Seven kickoffs with only one stop inside the 25 yard line. Five of seven times, ISU started past the 30. And ISU is only an average kick-returning team. Kansas, meanwhile, has Dez Briscoe. There is no question that Gary Pinkel and staff have figured things out in terms of the best way to coach kicking and punting...and, for that matter, punt coverage has been pretty good recently too. But there's something about kickoffs that is harder to coach, and Mizzou has not been a very good coverage team any time recently. In the six years of data recorded at CFB Stats, Mizzou has ranked 87th (2009), 94th (2008), 53rd (2007), 73rd (2006), 103rd (2005), and 91st (2004) in opponents' kick returns. Ouch. And that's just the returns, that doesn't even take into account the overall good starting field position when Mizzou has to pooch it to avoid a big return.

Anyway, of all my concerns for KU, the two biggest ones are KU's dink-and-dunk ability and their likely fantastic starting field position, and the ISU game only highlighted both of these concerns.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Mizzou was +3 points in the turnover game, and they won by 10. One more strip by Iowa State, and it could have turned the game.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Mizzou advanced inside ISU's 35 five times and came away with 20 points -- two touchdowns, two field goals, and a turnover on downs. Meanwhile, ISU advanced inside Mizzou's 35 four times and came away with 17 points -- two touchdowns (both on trick plays), a field goal and a turnover on downs. In other words, this was just about a wash. Mizzou's two long touchdowns trumped ISU's one, and that made the difference in the game.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not.

Consider this one a FAIL in Q1, a slight fail in Q2, a wash in Q3, and a WIN in Q4. Like I said, Mizzou might not want to wait as long to really play the short passes well this Saturday, but in all this was still an overall net win for Mizzou.

Summary

Despite the fact that their own mistakes allowed for a little more adversity than you'd like to see (particularly the late-Q2 fumble and some first-half issues defending the short pass), you always like seeing your team overcome adversity, and for the second game in a row, Mizzou dominated the second half. They sent Sean Weatherspoon and Danario Alexander out as winners, and their young players (particularly #11) continued to show significant growth. One of the major goals for 2009 was just to not screw up our hopes for the future, and their late-game surges the last couple of weeks have assured that this goal was rather successful, no matter what happens from here on out (though it's obvious that optimism could be starkly diminished with a couple of losses to finish the season). In all, it was a lovely Saturday to watch a Mizzou win, and like the Mizzou team did immediately after the game, we now turn the page and look to Kansas.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

---

Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Week 9: Tuesday Quick Hits

Mark Kieffer — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 13:00:34 -0000

Below is the latest on the Football Team:

The new depth chart was released. The big changes are that Josh Lenz is now starting over Darius Darks. Nice for Lenz as he's been stepping up, but Darks will still see the field I am sure. Also Jacques Washington is now listed as the #2 LCB behind Banks, because Benton is out for the rest of the year with a broken foot that he sustained during the first half on Saturday.
During the weekly media conference, Coach Rhoads said he expected Arnaud and A-Rob to play. He stated that A-Rob was able to participate in running drills on Sunday, the first time he had done so since prior to the Army game. Hopefully this is a sign that A-Rob is recovering after a much needed week off.
Also Coach Rhoads confirmed that James Smith will have to sit out the first half of the A&M game, after getting ejected during the 2nd half of the Huskers game. If you recall, Smith stuck a Husker player in the facemask after a play in which ISU recovered a fumble. The Huskers player was not innocent either, but the refs caught the retaliation, which is what usually happens.
Another win, another commitment. On Monday night, DB Clifford Morgan out of Frostproof, FL commited to the Cyclones. The recruiting class is now up to 16 players, and I'm sure there are more to come after what this coaching staff has been able to do thus far.

More on the the football team as the week goes on, and I'm behind on basketball coverage at this point, but will get some stuff up soon on that, as we're now less than a week from the first exhibition game.

BIG 12 ROUNDTABLE: Week Seven

BracketCat — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:30:21 -0000

via assets.sbnation.com

This week's Roundtable is brought to you by the boys at Crimson and Cream Machine. Since I have temporarily usurped TB's mod powers for the day, I get go first. Mwahaha.

1. What is the biggest Big 12 game this weekend not involving OU and Texas? Why?

BracketCat: I'll approach this from a statistical angle. There are five games this week pitting a Top 5 scoring defense (all allowing less than 10 points per game) against an offense scoring more than 32.6 points per game (my thanks to Rivals.com for that tidbit). They are Florida vs. Arkansas, Nebraska vs. Texas Tech, Oklahoma vs. Texas, USC vs. Notre Dame and USF vs. Cincinnati. Not coincidentally, those are some of the best matchups on TV this week, as well.

By the process of elimination and in accordance with the stated parameters, I'll throw out the Red River Shootout (bite me, political correctness) and the non-Big 12 games, leaving me with my answer: Texas Tech at Nebraska. It will be fascinating to see if Ndamukong Suh can wreak the same kind of havoc on Texas Tech's offensive line and passing game as he did to Missouri.

Plus, after having the image of Steven "Sticks" Sheffield lobbing TD passes like grenades against the K-State secondary burned into my brain seven times last Saturday, I am eager to watch him eat some Memorial Stadium turf - even if that means rooting for the Huskers, a team of which I am not particularly fond.

Runner-up is Missouri at Oklahoma State, two evenly matched teams who played a classic last season in Columbia.

TB: This is probably everyone's answer, but Nebraska vs. Texas Tech intrigues me. While the popular storyline out of last Thursday's win over Missouri seemed to be ZOMG 'SKERZ BE ROLLIN!!!, I was a little more reserved in what I think that game meant. Some Husker fans are talking about this being a potential "trap" game, but I think that title is inaccurate. They're playing a high-powered, South division opponent, and in the last five years or so, none of the North teams have proven they can beat even the middling South teams consistently. In other words, this game is sort of a referendum. Can Nebraska beat one of the better South teams?

For that matter, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game serves the same purpose on a smaller level. Mizzou is not the top dog in the North this year, but with injuries and suspensions, Oklahoma State is in the pack with Texas Tech as the teams closest to OU and UT in the South. If the North teams win both of these games, it will go a long way toward reversing the tide of talk about realignment and other silliness we heard too often last season. Of course, if the North teams lose, all that talk will only fire right back up again.

2. Sam Bradford has been hurt, Colt McCoy is throwing picks (6 Ints/10 TDs)and Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. Does the Big 12 have a legit Heisman contender left?

BracketCat: Ndamukong Suh? If only...

TB: No. Ndamukong Suh is not going to win it. Sorry, Nebraska fans. Jordan Shipley is probably the closest thing to a contender the conference has left, but he's such a late addition to the conversation I doubt he can overcome the Heisman voter inertia.

3. Its pretty much a consensus of opinions that Dan Hawkins is already standing with one foot out the door at Colorado. Who has the better chance of getting off the hot seat this season, him or Bobby Bowden?

BracketCat: Bobby Bowden, because he actually has accomplished something at his current school, such as posting a winning season, winning a bowl game and collecting at least one conference title. Once you remove all references to Chris Petersen, Dan Hawkin's resume is thinner than truck stop toilet paper. And he gets bonus points for the losing record against Ron Prince. Which is why I hope they give him a 10-year extension, of course.

TB: Hawkins, though not necessarily by improving the play of his team. Bowden is old and has a coach-in-waiting already under contract to take over. They have serious leverage on him, in other words. Hawkins, on the other hand, might make some strides over the remainder of the season that point toward improvement, however of a moderate degree. The big problem for CU is that they probably don't have the money to pay his buyout. If they can't, he gets off the hot seat by default.

4. We've got one full weekend of conference play under our belts. Who can you say, with confidence, that is out of the North and South division races already?

BracketCat: Uh, gee... K-State, whose defense just got shelled worse than No Man's Land? Iowa State, the only FBS team to actually lose to us? Colorado, the team that makes the previous two look like bowl-bound success stories? All good candidates in the North.

In the South, only Baylor really is out of it. Despite looking competitive against Oklahoma absent Robert Griffin, I suspect any team not named Oklahoma is going to have to dethrone the champs on the field to win the South with at least an asterisk. Baylor scored an F on that count. No one else has taken the test yet.

TB: K-State, Colorado and Iowa State are out of it in the North. With the loss to Nebraska, Missouri is standing at the door saying its farewells, unless it unexpectedly beats Oklahoma State this weekend and gets a warm reinvitation to do another round of shots.

In the South, Baylor is done. They may pick up a win we're not expecting because I thought Nick Florence played fairly well against OU in his first start, but they're done for. Texas A&M can be counted out, too. If they can't beat at home an OSU team that is short players like it got hit by the H1N1 flu, it's not going to be in the mix. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are the ones standing at the door saying their goodbyes, Tech because of the loss to Texas and Okie State because of the aforementioned issues.

5. Which race is going to be better in the North, the race to win the division or the race to stay out of the cellar?

BracketCat: LOL. Good one, guys. Since I think Nebraska's defensive line is going to pummel Todd Reesing into mincemeat no matter where the game is played, I'd have to say the trash-heap race is more compelling. Of course, I'm biased, since my team already has a leg up in that race due to a fantastic Farmageddon finish.

TB: I have a team in the race for the cellar, and even I don't give a shit.

6. OU/Texas - Who ya got?

BracketCat: Texas, by one point.

7. Big 12 Power Rankings - Let's see 'em!

BracketCat: Big shakeup this week, but that's what happens when you're losing at home to Colorado at halftime.

1. Nebraska -- Crazy talk? Maybe. But Ndamukong Suh is beginning to look like a once-in-a-decade kind of player, and Texas ain't anything special right now.
2. Texas -- If these two meet in the Big 12 Championship, Texas may have the home crowd, but I'm not so sure they could beat the Huskers on a neutral field the way they are playing so far. I'd put the over/under on Texas rushing yards in that game at 50.
3. Oklahoma -- Still haven't beat anyone of substance, but this week is their chance.
4. Kansas -- Despite the crappy defense, Jayhawks remain unblemished and merit Top 4 consideration. But their time is coming...
T5. Missouri -- I'll let the two of them duke it out for sole control of this spot next week.
T5. Oklahoma State -- Ditto.
7. Texas Tech -- No, you don't get to move up for running it up on an overmatched opponent. Shame on you.
8. Baylor -- Vaults A&M again with a good showing in Norman. These ain't your pappy's old, lay-down-and-die Bears.
9. Texas A&M -- Their offensive numbers mean nothing. Try beating a BCS team for a change. Oops, probably spoke too soon.
10. Iowa State -- Two years in a row, the Cyclones should have beat the Jayhawks. Of course, two years in a row, they should have won the Big 12 North. Welcome to life in Ames.
11. Colorado -- Nice first-half moral victory, Buffs.
12. Kansas State -- 66-14? Yeah, we're 12th... blocked PAT notwithstanding.

TB: Power pollin'

1. Texas -- Yes, they had some issues against Colorado, they can't run the ball, and Colt McCoy isn't as clutch as Texas fans thought. But they have the most firepower and talent of any team, and if they can shed the Texas attitude of "we'll do just enough to win, given the opponent," they'll be fine.
2. Oklahoma -- Both of its losses have been in narrow fashion to pretty good teams. Really need to get the offensive line figured out, and getting a few skill players healthy wouldn't hurt, but they have the most upside and least questions of anyone outside of Texas.
3. Nebraska -- If the game had ended at 45 minutes last week, no Husker fans would be having visions of an 11-1 season dancing in their heads. Of course, it was 60 minutes, and for some reason, now some of them do.
4. Oklahoma State -- Jump the beaks because they gutted out a tough win on the road through adversity. Who knows how they'll fare over the long run without Dez Bryant, but they still have a solid team.
5. KU -- If they don't get that defense fixed, they're staring at the possibility of losing to every team not named K-State or Colorado remaining on their schedule. Note I'm not saying they will lose, but when your game is trying to outscore the opposition, you're running a risk each time out.
6. Missouri -- I really shouldn't drop the Tigers this far, because I'm not sure you can learn a whole lot from a game played in the rain with a one-legged quarterback. But the lack of a running game and the fourth-quarter disintegration by the defense was alarming.
7. Texas Tech -- Had a discussion with a friend today, and wanted to pose this question: If Mike Leach coached a school where he got elite talent (Texas, Florida, USC, etc.), would he ever lose? His scheme is practically unstoppable unless you have at least equivalent athleticism, but at Texas Tech, he's recruited at a solid level, but not in the neighborhood of those other schools just listed. Thoughts?
8. Texas A&M -- Played OSU tough at home, but given the adversity OSU was facing, I'm not sure whether that's much of a moral victory. Pains me to say it, but they should pick up a road win this weekend when they play K-State.
9. Baylor -- Pinball Bears are back up to here by virtue of a better-than-expected showing against OU (it says something about how bad Baylor has been that a 26-point loss to OU is an improvement). Still aren't anything special, but the three amigos of the North cellar have them beat this year.
10. Iowa State -- Were one overthrown pass from (probably) beating KU in Lawrence. Oh, Austen Arnaud, you could have underthrown that pass and Darius Darks still would have scored. Oh, the humanity.
11. Colorado -- Put a scare into Texas thanks in large part to Texas doing everything it could to lose the game. Still, that's a lot better than...
12. K-State -- Jesus. Let us never speak again of what happened on the South Plains.

Quick Football Updates: 9/6/09

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 06:13:25 -0000

Hey all,

There are a few key notes that I intended to make after the NDSU game, but didn't get around to mentioning:

Kelechi Osemele left the NDSU game early due to injury as well. Apparently it wasn't serious and he should play against Iowa.
Sedrick Johnson had to leave the NDSU game early due to a sprained ankle. It's uncertain whether he will play next week against Iowa at this point.
Houston Jones hurt his ankle this past week. If you were at the game, you could see him in street clothes with something on his ankle.
Darius Darks did play against NDSU, as I saw him out there on quite a few plays. He didn't have any receptions so he didn't show up in the boxscore. Remember, he switched to #6 this season.
Jason Carlson and Hayworth Hicks are out for the season as they are academically ineligible

Since this news is a couple of days old, you may have already heard all of this, but I wanted to chime in with my thoughts:

First, offensive line is an area that we cannot afford to lose people; we are so thin at that position. It's great that Osemele is OK and it stinks that Hicks is out. I just hope that our starters on the line can stay healthy all year. It's already a below-average unit, and more blows would just lead to a long season offensively.

Secondly, WR is an area where you obviously don't want to have guys injured but can handle it if some guys are out. We have enough depth to handle some guys missing some time here and there. Obviously with Sedrick you want to have him out there as he has the potential to be that guy who can stretch the field. I wasn't under the impression that Jones and Carlson would play much his year as they are down there on the depth chart; I just am not sure if anything would be different if both guys were healthy.

What do you make of the news?

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

Browse more photos »

The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

Darius Darks Injured, Likely Will Miss Opener

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:03:11 -0000

Per the Des Moines Register.

It sounds like the hamstring injury that's been bothering him all offseason is continuing to do so. It's significant if he misses a chunk of time, as I really think he will develop into our go-to-guy, provided he can stay healthy. From the article, it sounds like Darks isn't healthy yet, and when he does get healthy, he has quite a bit of work to do. Hopefully he wouldn't miss too much time when healthy, and perhaps they would just phase him in as the 3rd or 4th WR until he gets back in shape and a complete feel for the offense.

Fortunatley for ISU, receiver is an area where it seems like we have bodies. I am confident that between Hamilton, Jones, Reynolds, Johnson, and whomever else we throw out there will be able to step in. I just hope that Darks can get back soon, because we will definitley need him if we want to have a successful season.

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Who am I? What am I doing here?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Yeah, yeah...I'm a day late with this. I'm not your nerd jester! We are down to our second-to-last regular season opponent of the year, the Cyclones of Iowa State. Once again, a new era starts in Ames. Is Paul Rhoads the man for the job?

2008

Record: 2-10 (0-8 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 177.7 (104th in the country, 12th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 304-430 (-126)
Conference Scoring Margin: 176-334 (-158)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #107 Kent State, 1-AA South Dakota State
Losses: #10 Missouri, #13 Iowa, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #88 UNLV, #98 Texas A&M

This is going to be the backhanded compliment of all backhanded compliments, but...for a 2-10 team that didn't beat a team ranked higher than 107th, Iowa State really wasn't that bad. They managed a scoring margin of just -126 points, which certainly isn't good at all, but again...for a 2-10 team, that could have been worse. That's what happens when you lose by 2 to Kansas, 3 to UNLV, 4 to Colorado, 8 to Kansas State, 12 to Iowa, and 14 to Texas A&M. If ISU had just figured out a way to be five points better in 2008, they would have been a much more respectable 5-7...

...and Gene Chizik would have left anyway. In the end, results from 2008 don't matter because Iowa State is once again starting from scratch in 2009. They've got some experience here and there, but a) probably not enough, and b) we don't really know what Paul Rhoads is going to do with that talent until the season starts.

Coaching

Head Coach: Paul Rhoads
Record at Iowa State: UNDEFEATED!!!!

Paul Rhoads has been a pretty stellar defensive coordinator for many years at the college level, but I think when he was being considered for the job, his most important qualification was what comes at the beginning of the second paragraph of his bio (PDF): "Born in Nevada, Iowa, just 10 minutes from Jack Trice Stadium..."

For all of Rhoads' accomplishments, the biggest draw for hiring him to coach the Cyclones had to have been simply that he's an Iowa boy (alma mater: Missouri Western), he likely considers ISU much more of a destination job than the last guy they hired, and he won't be looking for a bigger lilypad the moment the opportunity arises. He will build Iowa State for the long haul, and I think as long as he produces any sort of results whatsoever, he will be given a lot of rope.

An assistant to Dan McCarney when McCarney first came to Ames, Rhoads pretty quickly worked his way up the coaching ladder. He was LB/DB coach for five seasons in Ames before Walt Harris hired him as Defensive Coordinator for the Pitt Panthers. In eight seasons with Pittsburgh, he put together consistently solid defenses and was maintained when Walt Harris left for Stanford and the Wannstache took over. Pitt's defenses forced a ton of turnovers and always ranked pretty highly in terms of yardage allowed. In 2008, he moved south, replacing Will Muschamp as Auburn's Defensive Coordinator. Auburn's basic stats slipped under Rhoads, but everybody pretty much agreed that they were asked to do far too much with an incompetent Tiger offense putting them in sub-optimal situations.

Like Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini, and Mike Sherman, Rhoads assumes a Big 12 head coaching position with a strong defensive background. How will that translate to life in the Big 12 North? How much will recruiting need to improve for the Cyclones to move into the North's upper echelon (which, let's face it, isn't that "upper" at the moment)? Can it happen?

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 88.1 (#101)
Success Rate+: 90.3 (#100)
PPP+: 86.1 (#101)

Standard Downs S&P+: 92.1 (#91)
Passing Downs S&P+: 92.8 (#87)

Redzone S&P+: 82.3 (#112)

Q1 S&P+: 92.6 (#82)
Q2 S&P+: 89.4 (#99)
Q3 S&P+: 78.2 (#114)
Q4 S&P+: 110.9 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#82)
2nd Down S&P+: 93.9 (#84)
3rd Down S&P+: 89.4 (#90)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 88.4 (#97)
Rushing SR+: 90.7 (#99)
Rushing PPP+: 86.8 (#94)

Standard Downs: 89.7 (#96)
Passing Downs: 95.2 (#80)

Redzone: 80.2 (#112)

Line Yards+: 90.5 (#102)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 87.5 (#94)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#90)
Passing PPP+: 85.0 (#93)

Standard Downs: 94.4 (#79)
Passing Downs: 90.1 (#88)

Redzone: 89.1 (#86)

Sack Rate+: 105.5 (#56)

Aside from their 3rd-to-4th quarter splits, these numbers are pretty consistently terrible. It's important to remember the strength-of-schedule component to the "+" number here. Iowa State put respectable offensive numbers--25.3 points per game, 386.8 total yards, 5.5 yards per play--but these came against defenses that were giving up 400 or 500 yards to everybody else (plus, a lot of the yards came at the end of blowouts). In the end, the 387 yards per game were far below what would have been expected against the defenses Iowa State faced, and it damaged their rankings.

Other thoughts:

Aside from their strong fourth-quarter rankings (which, as we've seen with other teams, can be skewed if you're blowing other teams out, or getting blown out, and your starters aren't playing much in the fourth quarter), ISU's biggest strength was in pass blocking, where they were above average with a 105.5 Sack Rate+, 56th in the country. Beyond that? Not much to be happy about...or, for an opponent, not much to be scared of.
ISU was consistently below-average in both the running and passing games, ranking 97th and 94th, respectively. They ranked between 90th and 101st in most Success Rate+ and PPP+ breakouts. They were bad across the board.

Quarterback

The stats don't like Austen Arnaud, but he's got at least a decent amount of upside.

2008 Unit Ranking: #92 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Austen Arnaud (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Jerome Tiller (6'4, 185, RSFr.)
Brett Bueker (6'4, 213, RSFr.)

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

That said, if Arnaud has strong receiving talent around him, he's a good enough passer to get them the ball and let them make him look good. He does not, in fact, have that talent around him.

Behind Arnaud are a couple of big (well, tall...at 6'4, 185, Jerome Tiller is far from big--Mizzou WR L'Damian Washington is supposedly 6'4, 180, and Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond can't help but mention how skinny he is every time they talk about him) youngsters fighting it out to become his successor in 2011. Tiller was a decent-looking 3-star recruit in high school and is likely being groomed for the job.

Running Backs

If Alexander Robinson always played like he did in 2007 against Missouri, he'd be an all-conference back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #90 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Alexander Robinson (5'10, 184, Jr.)
Bo Williams (6'0, 217, So.)
Jeremiah Schwartz (5'11, 238, RSFr.)

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in AdjustedPOE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Of course, average is better than poor, which is what Austen Arnaud's pass targets were, so Robinson officially qualifies as a bright spot from 2008. He will be joined in the backfield by the intriguing Bo Williams, a former 4-star recruit who originally signed with Florida before transferring. Williams and Robinson running behind a reasonably experienced offensive line suggests that Iowa State's running game should improve a decent amount in 2009. But when your RBs are ranked 90th in the country, improvement only takes them to what...75th? 70th? Still some work to do here, but clearly Williams has some potential.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Darius Darks: possibly ISU's most potentially explosive threat, "potentially" being the key word.

2008 Unit Ranking: #96 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Darius Darks (6'1, 175, So.)
Sedrick Johnson (6'4, 199, So.)
Marquis Hamilton (6'4, 228, Sr.)
Houston Jones (6'1, 193, Sr.)
Jason Carlson (6'0, 205, So.)
Lonzie Range (6'3, 183, RSFr.)
Darius Reynolds (6'3, 190, Jr.)
Joshua Bellamy (6'1, 200, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Derrick Catlett (6'4, 252, Sr.)
Collin Franklin (6'6, 248, Jr.)
Carter Bykowski (6'8, 249, So.)

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

Marquis Hamilton and Houston Jones are what they are--if this were baseball, I'd be calling them innings eaters (the Josh Fogg variety more than the Esteban-Loaiza-in-his-prime variety) and leave it at that--so really, if this is going to become a truly dangerous unit, newcomers will need to play a role. One of two JUCO transfers, either Darius Reynolds or Joshua Bellamy, will need to turn out pretty capable, or they'll need to luck out with another ready-to-rumble true freshman or two (main candidates: Josh Lenz, Donnie Jennert, or Keith Blanton). Reynolds, a 4-star JUCO recruit from Reedley CC in California, has the best resume of the bunch, but we'll see.

UPDATE, 1:57pm - I completely forgot to talk about the tight ends.

As down as I am about a few of Iowa State's units, I actually like their tight ends a decent amount. Even though Derek Catlett only managed 20 catches for 220 yards last year, he finished the year with eight catches and 121 yards in the final two games, against Missouri and Kansas State. I realize I'm probably high on him simply because he looked really good against Mizzou and was non-existent to me the rest of the year, but it is what it is. Meanwhile, Collin Franklin is pretty decent as well. Really, if we look at the two players as one entity, they're impressive--35 catches, 478 yards, 2 TDs. They're not all-conference caliber players, but at the very least one of them could emerge as one of the better North tight ends behind Mike McNeill (and hopefully Andrew Jones).

Offensive Line

Big dude.

2008 Unit Ranking: #89 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Reggie Stephens (6'4, 338, Sr.)
G Ben Lamaak (6'5, 320, Jr.)
C Alex Alvarez (6'2, 294, Jr.)
T Hayworth Hicks (6'3, 354, Jr.)
T Kelechi Osmele (6'5, 338, So.)
T Matt Hulbert (6'7, 299, Jr.)
G Joseph Klerekoper (6'5, 305, So.)
G Trey Baysinger (6'6, 317, So.)
T Zack Spears (6'6, 306, So.)
C Ethan Tuftee (6'4, 294, Fr.)

When I was initially ranking offensive lines, I didn't take into account strength of schedule enough. Now that I have a full-fledged SackRate+ number to call on...yeah, Iowa State doesn't look that great. One thing they do have going for them, however, is experience. Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.

Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Then again, a variation of this huge line ranked 102nd in LineYards+ last year, so maybe not.

Summary

If you're looking at specific moments, you can talk yourself into Iowa State a bit. Austen Arnaud went 27-for-45 for 268 yards and 3 TDs against a pretty good Kansas secondary in 2008. Alexander Robinson put up 87 yards in just 11 carries against Nebraska. Darius Darks had seven catches for 113 yards against Oklahoma State. Bo Williams signed with Florida...Florida! But you need more than moments to keep up in the Big 12, and it's still hard to rank given Iowa State units too highly, even within just the Big 12 North. Arnaud's not as good as Todd Reesing, and he's probably not as good as (or at least no better than) Blaine Gabbert or Zac Lee. Robinson's certainly not as good or as proven as Derrick Washington or Roy Helu, Jr. Darks and Sedrick Johnson are not going to remind anybody of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier...or even Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. The line has experience and potential...but Missouri's offensive line has experience, potential, and actual results.

I love nothing more than pointing out "These guys aren't as good/bad as you think" as much as humanly possible. But while Iowa State certainly has the potential to put things together and win a couple of Big 12 games if things go right, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they just don't have enough to compete week in and week out. It will be interesting to see how Paul Rhoads both a) develops what he's got and b) figures out how to attract more talent to Ames, but I think expectations are low for Year #1 for very good reason. Prove me wrong, 'Clones.

SB Nation - Darius Darks

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score

Iowa St.(24)

Mizzou(34)

Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Week 9: Tuesday Quick Hits

BIG 12 ROUNDTABLE: Week Seven

Quick Football Updates: 9/6/09

New Depth Chart Released

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Darius Darks Injured, Likely Will Miss Opener

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Iowa St.
(24)

Mizzou
(34)