SB Nation - Jocques Crawford

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

You expected some other way to start out this post?

Every Border War win feels a little bit more triumphant than other wins, but this year packs a bit of extra meaning. Missouri has a chance to end both Todd Reesing's career and Mark Mangino's tenure in Lawrence with a single victory; meanwhile, Reesing and Mangino have a chance to extend their lives with an upset win in what is potentially their last game together.

I'll say this out front: I try to tune extracurricular detail out of these previews. I said last week that I don't necessarily believe in a positive Senior Day effect, and just the same, I doubt there is any net gain or loss to things like Kansas fighting for Mark Mangino's life in Lawrence. Extra emotion can go either way in the end, but let's just say this: I expect both Missouri and Kansas to bring their respective A-games to Arrowhead; and really, it shouldn't be any other way.

Offense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Once again, KU is a strong Passing Downs team, but they have only been a good overall offense instead of a great overall offense. And with their defense struggling for much of the season, good hasn't really cut it.

Kansas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	115.0 (30)	104.1 (48)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	112.4 (23)	100.0 (62)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	121.3 (37)	110.1 (46)

Rushing S&P+	109.2 (41)	111.2 (39)
Passing S&P+	116.9 (30)	98.2 (62)

Standard Downs S&P+	118.4 (24)	112.7 (31)
Passing Downs S&P+	131.4 (17)	95.0 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	127.8 (17)	110.5 (44)

Q1 S&P+	106.1 (65)	90.2 (85)
Q2 S&P+	121.4 (24)	121.6 (29)
Q3 S&P+	144.4 (4)	106.9 (47)
Q4 S&P+	128.3 (11)	115.3 (28)

1st Down S&P+	125.8 (12)	108.0 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	122.7 (29)	99.4 (62)
3rd Down S&P+	117.6 (34)	113.7 (38)

Line Yards+	104.6 (53)	103.7 (46)
Close Sack Rate+	91.9 (69)	90.8 (73)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	107.3 (59) / 85.5 (81)	102.5 (57) / 116.4 (39)

As you'll see, both offenses have significant advantages in this one, so the game could come down to which individual playmakers step up the most. Danario Alexander and Sean Weatherspoon, or Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Darrell Stuckey? Blaine Gabbert or Todd Reesing?

When KU Has the Ball...
KU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KU Passing	Advantage: KU
Best Time for KU:	Q1, Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2

Mizzou Advantages:

Passing Downs Sack Rate+

And for KU...

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Passing S&P+
Standard, Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+

No matter what happens in this game, Missouri will once again end up with a more successful regular season than Kansas. This has been the norm with Gary Pinkel against Mark Mangino. That said, it's pretty easy to see that KU has a number of matchup advantages to work with, and if Todd Reesing is dialed in and playing well, this game is a complete tossup shootout.

Mizzou's path to success, however, comes on Passing Downs. They must successfully blitz on those downs; if they do, KU's other advantages can be negated pretty quickly.

Quarterback

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Todd Reesing: 276-for-441 passing (62.6%), 3,118 yards (7.1 per pass), 18 TD, 9 INT

As a whole, Reesing has certainly put up solid numbers this year; however, after QB ratings in the 148-150 range both of his first two years as a starter, his has fallen to just 131.4 this year, and he has been every bit as all-or-nothing as in years past. Against Iowa State, he went 37-for-49 for 442 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT; he followed that up with another 401 yards against Colorado. Then, against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, he went a combined 42-for-77 (54.5%) for 405 yards (5.3 yards per pass), 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a sub-100 QB rating. We should all expect to see his best performance tomorrow, but anything less than his best might not get the job done.

Running Back

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

Toben Opurum: 133 carries, 554 yards (4.2 per carry), 9 TD, 13 receptions, 105 yards (8.1 per catch), 1 TD
Jake Sharp: 95 carries, 400 yards (4.2 per carry), 4 TD; 26 receptions, 188 yards (7.2 per catch), 3 TD
Rell Lewis: 10 carries, 60 yards

Toben Opurum is out with an injury, but I cannot really say I can tell any difference whatsoever between Opurum and Jake Sharp. Their numbers suggest that they are virtually the same running back. Opurum is a bit bigger, and Sharp is a bit faster, but in all, KU's running game probably will not get going that much on Saturday (knock on wood). Mizzou's rush defense has improved considerably throughout this season, and if they can stop Sharp and get to Reesing on passing downs, they should win. It's if they don't get to Reesing where the problems may start...

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

WR Kerry Meier: 92 receptions, 931 yards (10.1 per catch), 6 TD
WR Dezmon Briscoe: 70 receptions, 1,095 yards (15.6 per catch), 7 TD
WR Jonathan Wilson: 35 receptions, 449 yards (12.8 per catch)
WR Bradley McDougald: 31 receptions, 285 yards (9.2 per catch)

TE Tim Biere: 12 receptions, 134 yards (11.2 per catch)

KU's Border War strategy last year was very effective; what's scary is, Mizzou has become even more vulnerable to that sort of strategy in 2009. If Mizzou is unable to corral the short pass, Reesing could very easily go over 400 yards. If Mizzou fans are having nightmares tonight, it is probably because of Meier and Briscoe.

Offensive Line

Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

KU's offensive line has been distinctly average in 2009, improving slightly as the year has progressed. Mizzou's line, meanwhile, has also improved as the year has progressed, particularly in terms of line yards and passing down sack rates. If Mizzou can win this matchup by quite a bit, it could negate the passing advantage KU appears to have.

---

Defense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

While the offense actually got better, the defense got measurably worse despite nine returning starters (sound familiar, Mizzou fans?). They lost a second-team All-American in James McClinton at defensive tackle--the only loss other than Aqib Talib--and it seems to have made a difference.

Kansas was a bit worse defending the pass, a lot worse at defending the run, and in particular they gave up a ton more big plays (PPP+). This year, they return their entire secondary and three of four starters on the defensive line (losing only end Russell Brorsen)...but lose all three starting linebackers. So the passing numbers improve and the rushing numbers regress, maybe?

I was half-right above. The rushing numbers have certainly regressed ... but then, so have the passing numbers. After some adjustments resulted in better defensive play in the middle of the season, KU's defense just has not been able to maintain a spark. They looked good at times against both Kansas State and Nebraska in recent weeks, but their breakdowns have been killers, as evidenced by the fact that they rank a ridiculous 93rd in PPP+. Mizzou's big-play ability, matched with KU's inability to stop the big play, represent Mizzou's single biggest advantage.

KU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.3 (82)	117.2 (27)
Close Success Rate+	96.2 (76)	108.4 (37)
Close PPP+	87.4 (93)	133.1 (21)

Rushing S&P+	84.0 (107)	107.6 (47)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (57)	125.9 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (85)	114.6 (28)
Passing Downs S&P+	106.3 (50)	109.5 (53)

Red Zone S&P+	92.3 (87)	85.9 (104)

Q1 S&P+	106.0 (53)	118.1 (42)
Q2 S&P+	107.9 (54)	115.1 (44)
Q3 S&P+	86.2 (98)	122.8 (22)
Q4 S&P+	92.6 (79)	105.8 (55)

1st Down S&P+	94.2 (77)	120.2 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	97.0 (69)	108.5 (53)
3rd Down S&P+	102.1 (60)	110.1 (57)

Line Yards+	94.1 (84)	97.7 (77)
Close Sack Rate+	135.7 (16)	150.0 (28)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	141.6 (19) / 112.2 (48)	251.2 (10) / 113.6 (51)

When they are not forcing turnovers, this unit is simply not getting the job done.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KU:	First Half
Best Time for Missouri:	Second Half

MU's advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

KU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+

As with Mizzou's defense, KU's defense has few advantages, but can use what they have to great benefit. If KU is able to hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven by shutting things down in the red zone, then they will find it a lot easier to outscore Mizzou.

Defensive Line

So if KU felt the absence of James McClinton more than any other in 2008, then it's up to either Jamal Greene (21 tackles, 7 TFL/sacks) to become a much more consistent force or Jeff City's own Richard Johnson (14 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks) to overtake him if KU's run defense is to improve. If not them, then who? Man-beast Darius Parish moved to OL. Somehow, someway, there needs to be a better push up the middle.

And on the outside too. Solid-not-spectacular end Jake Laptad (8.5 TFL/sacks) offers hope for a pass rush, but he'll need help. The lack of a pass rush was bad enough last year that LB James Holt moved to end toward the end of the year, and KU fans seem to have hope that 4-star JUCO transfer Quintin Woods will thrive pretty quickly. The other options (Jeff Wheeler, Maxwell Onyegbule, or some younger guy) don't seem ready or capable, so all eyes are on Woods. If Woods doesn't catch on, KU fans start getting worried.

DE Jake Laptad: 37.0 tackles, 12.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR, 6 QBH
DE Max Onyegbule: 23.5 tackles, 10.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 5 QBH
DT Caleb Blakesley: 12.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Richard Johnson: 12.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
DE Jeff Wheeler: 11.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 8 QBH

As with many highly-touted JUCO transfers (hello, Jocques Crawford ... and Andy Maples, for that matter), Quintin Woods came to Lawrence with much ado and produced almost nothing. He has a whopping four tackles for the season. Which means my prediction more or less came true -- Woods didn't catch on, and the KU defensive line was a liability, at least against the run. Rushing the passer, they've been pretty solid. Laptad (6.5 sacks), Wheeler (5.5) and Onyegbule (5.0) have all had their moments, and KU has been at its most successful getting pressure on the passer while not committing LBs to the blitz. They've been a sieve against the run, though.

Linebackers

While the RB situation isn't in wonderful shape right now, it's still no surprise that Angus Quigley was moved from RB to LB. There's clearly a major void in terms of proven playmakers, so really at this point Kansas just needs as many warm bodies as possible to throw out there and see what they've got. Never say never, but it's hard to see this unit gelling into a solid unit quickly. Whether they call it this or not, you do have to figure that with an experienced secondary, KU will be playing a lot of 4-2-5 or nickel coverage.

LB Drew Dudley: 64.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
LB Huldon Tharp: 44.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Arist Wright: 34.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Justin Springer: 18.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH

True freshman Huldon Tharp has gotten some good press recently for racking up a large number of tackles in recent weeks; but that's all they are: tackles. He is not much of a disruptive force -- much more Luke Lambert than future Sean Weatherspoon. Drew Dudley, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise. With Angus Quigley failing to figure out the LB position in just one offseason (that is the norm, not the exception), Dudley, a junior, has stepped up and made a decent number of plays behind the line of scrimmage.

The LB corps has been solid in pass coverage, but their run support and blitzing have, as a whole, left something to be desired.

Secondary

As devoid of experience that the KU linebacker corps is, the secondary is the polar opposite. Five players with solid starting experience return, led by Mizzou killer Darrell Stuckey, who almost single-handedly fended off the Tiger offense for the entire first half last November at Arrowhead. ... Mark Mangino has some interesting ingredients, and he's not afraid to shuffle things around. Justin Thornton's been around forever (seems like just yesterday that he was getting decapitated by Tony Temple at Faurot Field), and while he's a proven commodity, he's also in Mangino's doghouse. If he doesn't end up starting (I assume he will, but...well, Mangino's got an angry side), then it looks like Anthony Davis will be the man opposite Daymond Patterson at CB. Both are sophomores. Meanwhile, junior safety Chris Harris was a star freshman in 2007 before losing his starting spot last year. He still managed the second-most successful tackles in the secondary in 2008, however, and I'm going to figure he'll still play a role opposite Phil Strozier and Stuckey.

CB Chris Harris: 67.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 7 PBU
S Darrell Stuckey: 66.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH
S Justin Thornton: 58.0 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
S Lubbock Smith: 32.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
CB Daymond Patterson: 27.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 PBU
CB D.J. Beshears: 16.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Anthony Davis: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
S Ryan Murphy: 11.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
S Phil Strozier: 11.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH

It's been a strange year for the KU secondary. Relatively speaking, it has still somewhat been a strength of this defense, but 2009 has seen all sorts of personnel shuffling and slump busting. Career doghouse resident Chris Harris has turned out to be the star of the secondary (again), while Justin Thornton has, at times, taken Harris' place in the doghouse. Darrell Stuckey has certainly been good, but he hasn't quite lived up to my own expectations for him. Meanwhile, Lubbock Smith emerged as a potential leader in the secondary but has been hindered recently by injury. He is a game-time decision.

In all, this is a crafty, experienced secondary, and I'm sure that, if given the opportunity, they will take advantage of any mistakes by Blaine Gabbert or any drops by Mizzou receivers. That said, they still aren't quite as scary as I thought they would be, and I'm a lot more confident in Mizzou's potential ability to win a shootout than I was a couple of months ago.

Special Teams

KU was decent in the kicking and punt return games, but kick returns produced eight yards fewer in 2008, and that really can make a pretty big difference. It might help explain how KU's Offensive S&P+ actually improved in 2008, yet KU scored 10 fewer points per game. Dez Briscoe was outstanding in limited opportunities, but it seems KU is making a concerted effort not to wear him out (Jeremy Maclin managed to do it all, ahem...just sayin'...), and early indications (according to Rock Chalk Talk) are that sophomore Isiah Barfield might take over the duties, at least to start.
If KU gets anything from the kick return game, this is a decent special teams unit, not as good as Nebraska's (NU really does seem to have the best special teams unit in the North at this point), but solid. Alonso Rojas leaves something to be desired punting, but this is an offensive conference--kicks matter a hair more than punts, right?

Punt Returns Rank: 83rd (Daymond Patterson: 20 returns, 8.2 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 73rd (Alonso Rojas: 48 punts, 41.4 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 51st (Bradley McDougald: 20 returns, 19.2 avg; Dez Briscoe: 16 returns, 23.9 avg, 1 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 90th (Jacob Branstetter: 60 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks)

Field Goals: 80th (Jacob Branstetter: 12-for-18, long: 57)
PATs: 78th (Jacob Branstetter: 38-for-40)

In all, special teams are a giant "meh" unit. They are average to below average in both place-kicking and punting, and their return units are, Dez Briscoe aside, average as well. In all, Mizzou should be able to flip the field rather well with Jake Harry, and Mizzou's average return units might find at least some moderate success. But Briscoe is the key. To avoid overuse, Briscoe has not been the key return man this year, but he showed what he could do if given the opportunity with his effortless TD return last weekend in Austin. I get the sneaking suspicion that Briscoe will be the main return man tomorrow, and ... well, that scares the living daylights out of me. IF Mizzou doesn't give up serious field position and/or a touchdown in the kicking game tomorrow, they win the special teams battle. But with the way Mizzou has been covering on kickoffs, that's a huge if.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

MU's Running Game

Most of the previews, this one included, has focused on these two teams' respective passing games, but if Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Prediction

Gotta say, I do NOT like how well KU is capable of running the short passing game considering how vulnerable Mizzou has been to just that over the last few weeks. That is just not a matchup I like for Mizzou. However, Mizzou's own big-play ability might neutralize that a bit, and besides ... it's not like I let my own feelings get in the way of these predictions anyhow, right? The numbers say Mizzou by 4.7, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Kansas 26. Nothing between a 17-point win for Mizzou and a 17-point win for Kansas would surprise me, but being that the last two games have both gone down to the wire, we can probably expect more of the same here.

re-Balancing the O

Denverjhawk — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:35:17 -0000

View full size photo »

Balance in the offense. Pretty common belief in football that balance in the offense leads to success in the offense. If all you do is run it becomes easier for teams to focus all their efforts at stopping it. At that point you can still be successful but you better have a mammoth offensive line and every player has to put a hat on a hat and play football.

What proves slightly more difficult is if all you are capable of is passing. Again at that point you better field an offensive line that creates a pocket, wins their matchups and more often than not allows very very few sacks. Still you likely need balance within your passing game itself. Does it do you any good to go five wide if only two are legitimate targets?

Right now the Kansas Jayhawks have no balance. There are other reasons for the current struggles and perhaps 2007 inflated expectations a bit to high but that season certainly points to some glaring reasons why 2009 and perhaps even to a lesser extent 2008 weren't as successful.

2007

First off let's take a look at the 2007 statistical breakdown for the Jayhawks offensively.

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	275	445	3486	61.8	7.83	33	7	148.9

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Brandon McAnderson	190	1125	5.9	40	16
Jake Sharp	111	556	5.0	25	5
Todd Reesing	92	197	2.1	53	3

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Marcus Henry	54	1014	18.8	82 (TD)	10
Dexton Fields	63	834	13.2	37	6
Dezmon Briscoe	42	496	11.8	34	7
Derek Fine	46	394	8.6	32	4
Kerry Meier	26	274	10.5	39	2
Brandon McAnderson	21	213	10.1	39	0
Aqib Talib	8	182	22.8	58 (TD)	4
Jake Sharp	19	134	7.1	31	1

Clearly we all know this was a good year offensively against a weaker schedule, but still it's not hard to see we were a much more balanced team.

Todd's numbers are what they are, amazingly he still looks to be on pace in 2009 for a better statistical year but that doesn't take into account the fumbles, the sacks and other wasted offensive plays that seem to be plaguing him this year.

A quick look at the running game vs. passing though and you'll see Kansas rushed for over 2400 yards in 2007 while passing for around 3700 as a team. 40% run, 60% pass, probably about par for the spread. Certainly some balance in that area and when you look inside each of those areas separately you see an equal amount of balance.

McAnderson 190 carries, Sharp 111 carries. Hell even Todd ran it 92 times although I wouldn't say that's the ideal scenario this year. Still why can't we see this type of split with Sharp and Opurum? Take away the Sharps injury and who knows if Toben sees the field much past UTEP.

In the passing game the spread amongst receivers is great. Marcus Henry with 54 catches, Dexton Fields with 63, Derek Fine with 46, Dezmon Briscoe at 42, Kerry Meier with 26 and running backs combined with a total of 40 balls thrown their way. No single player was the recipent of more than 22% of the teams receptions. Who does a defense focus on? It's pretty clear this year but in 2007 the ball was being distributed around no one man more emphasized than the next and it made the offense very difficult to defend. Isn't the point of the spread to get more athletes on the field than the other team and get them into space? So what good does it do if only two of those athletes see the ball? Just a question.

2008

Now let's jump to 2008 a year which was truthfully very close to being a disaster. A great game against Missouri and a monster comeback in Ames essentially made things feel a whole lot better than maybe they really were. Nonetheless it was a success but things were clearly trending away from the balance we saw in 2007.

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	329	495	3888	66.5	7.86	32	13	148.5

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Jake Sharp	186	860	4.6	47 (TD)	12
Angus Quigley	59	309	5.2	20	3
Jocques Crawford	62	232	3.7	20	4
Todd Reesing	126	224	1.8	18	4

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Dezmon Briscoe	92	1407	15.3	69 (TD)	15
Kerry Meier	97	1045	10.8	68 (TD)	8
Johnathan Wilson	43	573	13.3	56	3
Jake Sharp	25	283	11.3	67 (TD)	1
Dexton Fields	20	214	10.7	50	3
Daymond Patterson	14	154	11.0	44	2
Angus Quigley	17	82	4.8	14 (TD)	1

2008 final numbers were 1650 on the ground and just shy of 4000 through the air. Moves the Jayhawks to 30% of their yards on the ground and 70% through the air. If you remember the ground game really came on much stronger in conference play so I'll accept this as a failure in the non-conference combined with the fact that confidence was through the roof in the passing game. It worked too for the most part, even in the losses the offense was working.

Sharp was effective with over 180 carries on the year. The running game certainly wasn't to 2007 standards but we lost an All American left tackle and a senior right tackle so a dip was somewhat expected.

The passing game is where you begin to see a bit of a troubling trend. For all the talk of Reesing, Dez and Meier being great it shouldn't be hard for a defensive coordinator going forward to see where they need to pool their resources. There are two guys on this list that catch better than 60% of the balls thrown. Granted they were somewhat new on the scene and both are very good, but is everyone else a decoy? The spread the ball around distribution from 2007 is long gone.

All in all 2008 was productive and the offense never stalled out like it has this season but when you look at the numbers it would seem the Jayhawk playcalling was at the very least trending in the direction that has led to the complete unbalance we are seeing today.

2009

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	232	361	2626	64.3	7.27	17	8	136.5

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Toben Opurum	116	498	4.3	26 (TD)	9
Jake Sharp	83	368	4.4	30	3
Kale Pick	13	162	12.5	55	0
Todd Reesing	78	92	1.2	22	4

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Dezmon Briscoe	61	917	15.0	56	6
Kerry Meier	73	758	10.4	71	6
Johnathan Wilson	30	361	12.0	33	0
Bradley McDougald	28	263	9.4	42	0
Jake Sharp	23	178	7.7	56	3
Toben Opurum	12	110	9.2	30	1
Tim Biere	8	108	13.5	19	0

Here's a quick look at 2009 YTD. Currently Kansas sits at about 30% of their yards coming from the ground game and again about 70% in the air. On paper it wouldn't seem we've regressed in this area much from 2008 but only 313 of the rushing yards in 2009 have come after conference play began. Yep, 313 yards rushing in 5 games. How many would you guess in the first five conference games for 2008? 843 is the magic number, a 163 yard/game average. Our offense turned it on in 2008 when conference play began. So in this current skid it'd be safe to bet that maybe 10% of our offensive yardage is coming on the ground. Not tough to defend when you tell your front four to tee off and drop the other seven into coverage.

It becomes even less difficult when you realize that once again, two players on the Jayhawks are accounting for nearly 60% of their offensive receptions. Now I'll concede the fact that Johnathan Wilson has dropped a good number of passes this year but do we not have anyone else on the team that can catch a ball? Let's give them a shot. Against Kansas State Tetravian Ingram finally came in for Johnathan Wilson who has struggled of late. Missed the first pass thrown his way and yanked back to the sideline. The reactions to the two's behaviors seems a bit unproportional.

Also why doesn't Tim Biere see the ball more? He seems every bit as capable of making a catch as Derek Fine. Not too mention he runs like a truck down the field. Has he been tackled yet? or just eventually bounced out of bounds. The running backs are seeing about the same number of balls as they have in the past but the effectiveness is down. Too many middle screens and shovel passes perhaps? Why not check down to these guys on our normal every down passing plays when no one appears open?

To wrap up I just want to make it clear that what this group has done for the University of Kansas football program is immeasurable. It's made Saturday's matter again in the fall. Nobody sets out to lose and certainly these guys put in a tremendous amount of hours and effort all year. They deserve and will get my continued support. Somewhere though whether it rest with the man at the top, the offensive coordinator and certainly a little bit with the signal caller, this offense isn't remotely close to where it's been. In 2007 this team did it with players nobody wanted out of high school. Literally no one wanted Marcus Henry, Brandon McAnderson was far from the top of anyones list at running back and as I recall the Head Coach on the other sideline this past weekend didn't recruit Jake Sharp.

Kansas should be better, it's time to adapt what we're doing and fix the problems. Changes were swift on the defensive side of the ball, but are coming far too slowly for the offense. I'm headed back to Lawrence this week to see Senior day for this crew and I'm thrilled to say I'll send off Stuckey, Meier, Reesing, Sharp and likely Briscoe. I just hope that the teams struggles this year can be corrected enough to get them a bowl game and then going forward our program finds a way to adapt what we've done well in the past to continue moving forward as a program.

Mizzou Links, 9-24-09

Bill C. — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:43:03 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

Only 36 hours to kickoff!

Browse more photos »

Well, you knew Kimmeh would probably weigh in on the KU issue...

Man I love mizzou football lol..@BlaineGabbert @D_Alexander81 @SeanWSpoon12 even @dmatter (let's never fight)

Nevada Links!

The Trib: Behind the Numbers: MU vs Nevada, Part II

One of the country's most potent rushing attacks has been grounded so far this season. Nevada was the No. 3 running team in the country last year, averaging 277.8 yards per game and 6.2 per carry. Only Navy and Oregon averaged more yards on the ground. Through two games, Nevada's still averaging a healthy gain per carry (5.2), but the running opportunities have dipped, by more more than 15 carries a game, producing an offense that's just 52nd nationally in rushing, at 161 yards per game.

What's the difference? Blame a shaky pass offense, penalties, turnovers and a defense that hasn't created many running opportunities in losses to Notre Dame and Colorado State. Most of Nevada's rushing yards have come in the third quarter this year. The Wolf Pack has yet to lead in a game this year and when trailing by a touchdown or less, they've only ran the ball 11 times. In fact, 180 of Nevada's 322 rushing yards have come when the Pack's been trailing by 15 points or more.
Post-Dispatch: Ambitious Nevada Wolf Pack stumbles to 0-2 before facing Missouri
Reno Gazette-Journal: Tiger offense lost big names, but not big numbers
Reno Gazette-Journal: Ault counting on Lipincott, Bethea to help rally troops
PowerMizzou: Powered Up: A four-game season
KC Star (Mike Dearmond's Vlog): Has MU shown its cards?
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Webcast: Episode 7, Part 1

Whatever You Say, Don't Say You Didn't See This Coming

TB — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:46:22 -0000

It has been quite an eventful 24 hours over at fair Harvard on the Kaw. Almost exactly 24 hours ago, a fight between the members of the football and basketball teams broke out at some place called Burge Union on KU's campus. In that fight, KU guard Tyshawn Taylor suffered a dislocated thumb that will keep him off the basketball court for three-to-four weeks. Reports are somewhat sketchy, but it's believed the fight may have gone something like this (Taylor is the kid in the sideways red hat). Also, the police in that video were arresting the walk-ons so the coaches would have someone to punish that wouldn't hurt the team too much.

Apparently, that wasn't enough carnage for all involved, as another fight between the same groups broke out about four hours later at the infamous Jayhawk Towers on KU's campus. In response to these fights, associate athletic director Jim Marchiony stated as follows:

"We’re aware of reports of an incident, and we are gathering facts as we speak," Marchiony said.

For those not fluent in "Jayhawk," that means they're trying to figure out whether anything was caught on tape, whether there are any witnesses that might talk to someone, and whether the crackerjack KU campus security is willing to let slide two separate incidents that undoubtedly involved multiple assaults and batteries (the article indicates punches were thrown and obviously Taylor was injured).

If it had just been that, it might have been a case of young men being really, exceedingly stupid, and doing it on KU's campus. Of course, you know that was not the extent of it. This morning, about the time KU athletic director Lew Perkins was issuing a statement essentially saying that he takes it seriously and would handle it internally, yet another fight on KU's campus broke out between the same groups. According to witnesses, this fight broke out when either Marcus or Markieff Morris threw a football player down a flight of stairs, and continued with punches being thrown and racial slurs hurled back and forth. The same report listed Sherron Collins and Taylor (he didn't get enough the night before) as present at the fight, as well as Dezmon Briscoe from the football team, among others. Again, details are sketchy, but it's believed this is an accurate representation of what went down this morning.

Obviously, there's been quite a bit of reaction to this. It ranges from frustration to boredom to anger and everywhere in between. Whatever your reaction to this, there should be one reaction conspicuously absent.

You really shouldn't be surprised.

Your hometown newspaper columnist isn't. Tom Keegan of the Lawrence Journal World wrote today that this is far, far from the first fight between the basketball and football teams. According to Keegan...

Bar owners and patrons know it. Students know it. Cops know it. The only reason you haven’t read more about it is because precise details of said skirmishes have been difficult to nail down.

While I respect Keegan as an entertaining local writer, isn't it a reporter's job to nail down difficult facts and report on incidents such as this? Maybe one bar fight isn't that big of a deal, but a series of incidents -- as this seems to be -- certainly is.

There is a reason parents punish (or should do so, I've seen some really terrible parents lately) children for aberrant behavior, whether it be by corporal punishment or depriving the child of doing something they enjoy. By receiving a harsh reaction for the behavior, children learn not to engage in it, lest they suffer the consequences.

Change "children" to "KU athletes" and "parents" to "authority figures in Lawrence," and you have the same story. Markieff Morris shot a woman with a BB gun on KU's campus while drinking as an 18 year old, and he got diversion and community service and was not suspended from any basketball games. Jocques Crawford was involved in an incident where teammate Ben Lueken ended up in the hospital after being thrown off Crawford's moving car, somehow he was arrested and then "unarrested" (whatever the hell that means), and disappeared from the KU football program and was never charged with a crime.

Before that, Sherron Collins ignored the requirements of the judicial system by ignoring a lawsuit filed against him for allegedly rubbing up on an employee at Jayhawk Towers on KU's campus. He got hit with a $75,000 default judgment before the lawsuit was eventually dropped.

Of course, legal incidents are hardly the end of the story at KU. In 2006, the school was hit with three years of probation after being slapped with the "lack of institutional control" tag by the NCAA. After winning a national championship in basketball, it was discovered that Darrell Arthur, a rather key component of that team, couldn't pass a high school algebra class on his own. South Oak Cliff, where Arthur played, has been stripped of two state championships (translation, the school has a track record in this area). I suppose you could shrug this off and say "well, KU didn't know about this," but the South Oak Cliff's track record and the fact that the NCAA voided Memphis' 2008 season after it was discovered that Derrick Rose's SAT score was bogus sort of undercut that argument.

Returning to the child metaphor from earlier, nobody is going to learn their lesson if punishment isn't meted out to those instigating this series of incidents. A lax administration and cooperative local media have combined to lead to situations like this. Until the athletes realize they will face real consequences -- and no, running stairs at 6:00 a.m. or being suspended for spring football or an exhibition basketball game against Washburn is not punishment to these athletes -- KU fans shouldn't be surprised at anything that happens in Lawrence.

And I really do mean anything.

Postgame Reaction: K-State vs. UCLA

TB — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:43:21 -0000

More photos » by Francis Specker - AP

Daniel Thomas celebrates K-State's only touchdown in a 23-9 loss to UCLA.(AP Photo/Francis Specker)

Browse more photos »

About the only good thing I can say today is that I didn't wake up with a hangover.

Our worst fears for this season have been realized, K-State fans. All the hope we had in the offseason, and all the discussion of what could happen if everything went right, has gone out the door. Everything has not gone right. Before the season, Curtis Kitchen put together a list of five things that needed to go right for K-State to reach a bowl game. Instead of listing things I liked and things I didn't, I'm going to take a glimpse at those five things an look at what has transpired in the early going.

1. Stay healthy: Negatory. Our best defensive player, Brandon Harold, hasn't played a down yet. It shows, because our defense has only one sack on the season. Frankly, the secondary has played valiantly with zero pass rush in front of them. In addition, it appears that Alex Hrebec is now injured, too, as he did not play last night against UCLA. In a season where we have zero bye weeks, we have no chance to get healthy.

2. Daniel Thomas: He's been a stud. Unfortunately, he's not getting the ball enough. Last night, he had only 20 touches (15 carries, four receptions, one pass). That needs to be more like 25-30. He is the only consistent threat we have on offense, and we need to ride that horse to the bitter end. Maybe he's a marginal passer, but Carson Coffman doesn't appear to be much better.

3. Vic does his thing: The defense is better than last year. No doubt about that. Last season, we probably would have surrendered 450-500 yards to UCLA, especially after some breakdowns early gave the Bruins big gains. But adjustments were made, the team stood up, and UCLA only picked up 359 total yards on the night (and a big chunk came late on that play-action pass for the final score). We're still not back to the Lynch Mob days, but we're significantly better than the last two seasons.

4. Instant impact: We were talking about Emmanuel Lamur here. Mostly, he's been a disappointment in the secondary. His tackling fundamentals are average, and he got burned on the play-action that scored UCLA's final touchdown last night.

5. Get some help: This part focused on the schedule, and it doesn't appear we're going to get the help we'd hoped for. Missouri is much better than expected, while KU has looked solid in wins over cupcakes. Nebraska was one boneheaded play from winning in Blacksburg yesterday. Texas A&M is probably better than last season, and Texas Tech hasn't fallen off much. Even with the loss of Sam Bradford, nobody can score enough points to take advantage of OU. Even Iowa State appears to be a more game opponent than last season, and Colorado picked up its first win of the season yesterday.

Hit the jump for what it means, where we're going, a look at how our opponents are doing, and the Big 12 roundup.

What it means and where we're going...

In the big picture, it means we now know there is absolutely no chance that we're going to a bowl game this year. Assuming we win against Tennessee Tech this week, we would need five conference wins to get to the seven wins required for bowl eligibility. It's safe to say that I don't see that happening. I fully expect this team to improve with time, but it's going to be improving as the competition gets ever tougher.

On the horizon is an interesting two-week stretch for this team. Next week they return home to face a pretty bad Tennessee Tech team, a team they should beat easily. Unfortunately, I'm guessing that morale in the locker room is pretty low, and despite the athletic department's best efforts, I'm also guessing that attendance next week is going to be pretty poor. It wouldn't be surprising to me if the team is flat and just sort of picks up a routine, unimpressive win. The next week opens conference play in Kansas City, Mo., against one of the few conference teams we have any legitimate chance to play with. With no disrespect intended toward Iowa State, if we can't win that one, we won't win another one the rest of the season, unless Colorado or Texas A&M completely tanks.

What our opponents are doing...

Massachusetts picked up an easy conference win, defeating Rhode Island, 30-10. The Rams were only 3-9 a year ago and are 1-1 on this young season. Meanwhile, Louisiana traveled to Death Valley to take on No. 9 LSU, and was tagged with a 31-3 loss. I suppose we could take some positives from the fact that ULL limited LSU to only 330 yards total offense, but that's sort of a slim silver lining.

Next week's opponent, Tennessee Tech, is 1-1 on the season. In the opener, TTU picked up a 51-10 victory over NAIA Pikeville College. This weekend, the Golden Eagles dropped a 17-7 decision to Eastern Kentucky. In the Ohio Valley Conference, EKU is a pretty solid team, having won the conference twice in a row, and TTU played them tough last week. Still, this is not a team that should be able to come to Manhattan and play with K-State, although with our struggles on offense I hesitate to say that about anyone.

Around the Big 12

KU 44, Duke 16

After hearing that Duke had driven 87 yards in two plays for an early 7-0 lead, I wondered what had happened to KU's defense after last week's impressive outing against UTEP. Turns out, they were apparently just a little slow to wake up for the 11 a.m. kickoff. Despite giving up a lot of yards (394), KU would only yield nine more points. It would be a mistake to call KU's offense balanced, as the beaks picked up 338 of their 490 yards through the air, but after two ground-bound games to start the season, the question had been whether KU's aerial attack would get untracked. Question no more, as Todd Reesing was an efficient 28-41 with three TDs and no INTs. Dez Briscoe may not be a classroom star, but he's a stud on the field, hauling in six receptions for 117 yards and a TD.

For more: Rock Chalk Talk

Next opponent: Southern Mississippi (Lawrence, Kan.), 9/26

Missouri 52, Furman 16

As I was unwilling to fork over $30 to watch this massacre, I didn't see even a single highlight from Mizzou's beatdown of the FCS Furman Paladins. The stats show that the Blaine Gabbert everyone fell in love with after week one returned, going 17-25 with three TDs and no INTs. Mizzou led 42-0 at half as this one was never in doubt. Shockingly, Furman won the time-of-possession battle, and picked up 398 yards. I'll have to defer to the RMN crew as to whether this was a result of defensive breakdowns early or junk yards late.

For more: Rock M Nation

Next opponent: Nevada (Reno, Nev.), 9/25

Colorado 24, Wyoming 0

From the box score, it appears this game was nearly unwatchable. Colorado controlled time of possession and easily outyarded the Cowboys, but only picked up 326 yards on the night. Give some credit to the CU defense for shutting out a Wyoming team that had Texas down early last week, but then remember that this is Wyoming, a team with a first-year head coach that is probably going to end up in the MWC basement. For K-State fans, seeing CU win this one has to be a bit disappointing, because the Buffs were looking like about our only good chance at a conference win.

For more: Ralphie Report

Next opponent: West Virginia (Morgantown, W.Va.), 10/1

Oklahoma 45, Tulsa 0

Are Big 12 defenses getting better this year? Tulsa may not be the team it was last year, but they play in the offense-happy Conference USA and failed to score a point against the Sooners. This one was over early, as OU jumped to a 31-0 halftime lead before coasting to an easy win. Landry Jones had a big day, passing for 336 yards and six touchdowns against the Golden Hurricane, but threw two interceptions in the process. While lacking a dominant back -- no Sooner gained more than 73 yards rushing -- Oklahoma picked up nearly 200 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Sooner defense limited Tulsa to only 269 yards on the day.

For more: Crimson and Cream Machine

Next opponent: Miami (Coral Gables, Fla.), 10/3

Virginia Tech 16, Nebraska 15

As Virginia Tech is apt to do, the Hokies slugged it out in a game with Nebraska that did nothing to advance offensively competent football. It looked for all the world as though Nebraska had this game won, stopping VT on downs with less than two minutes left. However, VT had all its timeouts left and Nebraska failed to pick up a first down, forcing the Huskers to punt back to the Hokies. Inexplicably, NU safety Matt O'Hanlon let Danny Coale get behind him and Tyrod Taylor shockingly completed a pass to him down the left sideline for an 80-yard gain to the Nebraska three. Two plays later, Taylor found Dyrell Roberts for the winning touchdown, undoubtedly causing a short-term spike in the Nebraska suicide rate. After two good outings against Sun Belt teams, quarterback Zac Lee was awful against Va. Tech, going 11-30 with no TDs and two INTs. Nebraska's lone bright spot offensively was running back Roy Helu, Jr., who diced the Hokies for 170 rushing yards, a career high. I don't have the stats, but NU DT Ndamukong Suh was practically unblockable, as usual, shutting down the running game and batting down numerous passes.

For more: Corn Nation

Next opponent: Louisiana (Lincoln, Neb.), 9/26

Connecticut 30, Baylor 22

Those hyping the Bears as a bowl team this season took one on the chin as Baylor lost at home to UConn Saturday. For the second time in as many games, quarterback Robert Griffin III had a subpar outing, passing for only 119 yards and rushing for a measly 20. Unlike two weeks ago against Wake Forest, the rest of the team couldn't pick up the slack, as the Bears gained only 266 yards on the day. Meanwhile, Joe Pawelek and the Baylor defense were not up to the task against UConn, giving up 326 yards, including a whopping 235 rushing yards, as UConn running back Andre Dixon scored three touchdowns.

Next opponent: Northwestern State (Waco, Texas), 9/26

Oklahoma State 41, Rice 24

For a second straight week, the Oklahoma State defense looked deficient, giving up 377 yards and 24 points to anemic Rice. It was bad enough that Rice actually outyarded the supposedly high-flying Pokes, as Okie State only gained 351 total yards. The Cowboys led 21-3 at halftime, but couldn't put Rice away in the second half. T. Boone Pickens needs to put out an APB for the OSU running game, as the Pokes only gained 124 yards rushing with Kendall Hunter on the shelf again. Dez Bryant was back to his usual tricks, catching nine passes for 161 yards and two TDs.

Next opponent: Grambling State (Stillwater, Okla.), 9/26

Texas A&M 38, Utah State 30

After steamrolling New Mexico two weeks ago and taking a week off, A&M came out flat and beat Utah State in unconvincing fashion. While the A&M offense was again impressive, tallying 573 yards, the defense was woeful, yielding 521 yards to the other Aggies. Penalties continue to bug A&M, as the Aggies totaled 16 flags for 147 yards yesterday. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson was mostly impressive, going 21-41 for 322 yards and four TDs, and the A&M rushing game picked up 235 yards. Still, the defensive effort had to bring back some painful memories of last year, against a Utah State team that, frankly, is not very good. In its first game, USU lost to in-state rival Utah, the very same Utah team that Oregon dropped yesterday. Apparently, A&M has a knack for finding opponents with a first-year coach, as Gary Anderson is in his first year with the Aggies, a team that went 3-9 last season.

For more: I Am the 12th Man

Next opponent: UAB (College Station, Texas), 9/26

Iowa State 34, Kent State 14

Much rejoicing will be heard in the streets of Ames, Iowa, this week, as the Cyclones no longer hold the nation's longest road losing streak. Quarterback Austen Arnaud bounced back from a putrid game against Iowa last week to pass for 144 yards on 13-21 passing with one touchdown, while the Cyclones rolled up 234 rushing yards. Alexander Robinson accounted for 143 of those yards for ISU. The Clones' defense also limited Kent State to 302 total yards.

For more: Clone Chronicles

Next opponent: Army (Ames, Iowa), 9/26

Texas 34, Texas Tech 24

Texas Tech ended up on the short end of this decision despite outyarding and out-first-downing the Longhorns. Colt McCoy turned in a pedestrian effort against the Red Raiders, passing for only 205 yards and throwing two interceptions. It's looking more and more each week like RMN's Bill C. was right before the season when he predicted that McCoy's outstanding success last season was likely unsustainable. That's not to say Texas isn't a good team, but I don't think anyone really knows how good the Horns are right now. Also of note, the Texas Tech Running Game Watch is now in full gear, as the Red Raiders actually got further from the 100-yard barrier for the season by posting a -6 in the rushing game total. If you're keeping track, Tech is now at 86 net rushing yards through three games. That's Jocques Crawford-level stats right there, which may be college football's Mendoza Line. Taylor Potts looked pretty good, going 46-62 for 420 yards, two TDs and one INT, but he can't do it all on his own. Captain Leach had better find a running game soon.

For more: Burnt Orange Nation, Double T Nation

Next opponents: Texas (UTEP, Austin, Texas, 9/26), Texas Tech (Houston, Houston, Texas, 9/26)

Kansas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

"I'd say the burrito was about this big." (Sorry, have to win back some goodwill after posting an unharmed Jayhawk logo yesterday.)

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We now take a look at a team that, talent-wise, seems to be most well-established for making a North title run in 2009. At least, a team well-established at skill positions and in the secondary, with some pretty good-sized question marks in some units.

2008

Record: 8-5 (4-4 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 230.0 (20th in the country, 6th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 434-375 (+59)
Conference Scoring Margin: 251-293 (-42)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #10 Missouri (dammit), #63 Minnesota, #82 Colorado, #79 Kansas State, #86 Louisiana Tech, #93 Florida International, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Sam Houston State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #15 Texas Tech, #21 Nebraska, #23 South Florida

Two atrocious quarters of offense from Missouri prevented me from being able to cleanly say that KU was 0-6 versus Top 60 teams and 7-0 versus everybody else, but alas...the 40-37 win over Mizzou at Arrowhead was KU's single crowning win in 2008. And yet...they managed to rank 20th in the country anyway. It all depends on how you frame it, I guess. You could also say that they were 1-5 versus the Top 25 and 7-0 versus everybody else, which makes #20 sound about right. Regardless of how you frame 2008, in 2009 KU returns all of their skill position talent and some key cogs in the secondary, but faces major holes on the O-line and at linebacker.

Coaching

Head Coach: Mark Mangino
Record at Kansas: 45-41 (conference: 22-34)
Career Pythagorean Record: -1.15 wins (-0.1/year)

Mark Mangino enters his eighth season in Lawrence having brought Kansas pretty steady, if a little two-steps-forward-one-back, success. He has yet to finish ahead of Gary Pinkel in the Big 12 North standings, yet he is consistently ranked ahead of GP when Big 12 coaches are ranked. At some point, actually, you'd think KU fans would become rather offended by this, as it pretty much suggests that KU was such a bad job that he's done an amazing job just to win some games while never finishing ahead of PInkel.

Mangino's moving average of wins shows just how methodically he has brought success to Lawrence:

2002-04: 4.0
2003-05: 5.7
2004-06: 5.7
2005-07: 8.3
2006-08: 8.7

And while we're at it, let's look at "Adjusted Win %." If you remember this from previous use, this is where we adjust a team's record for quality of opponent, equally weighting the record against teams based on win %.

Mark Mangino's Adj. Win %
	vs .000-.250	vs .251-.500	vs .501-.750	vs .751-1.000	Adj. Win %
Year 1-4	7-1 (0.875)	6-10 (0.375)	6-12 (0.333)	0-5 (0.000)	19-28 (0.396)
Year 5-7	9-0 (1.000)	8-2 (0.800)	8-6 (0.571)	1-4 (0.200)	26-12 (0.643)
Total	16-1 (0.941)	14-12 (0.538)	14-18 (0.438)	1-9 (0.100)	45-40 (0.504)

Just as a means of comparison, here's Gary Pinkel's Adjusted Win %, broken out the same way:

Gary Pinkel's Adj. Win %
	vs .000-.250	vs .251-.500	vs .501-.750	vs .751-1.000	Adj. Win %
Year 1-4	6-0 (1.000)	12-8 (0.600)	3-10 (0.231)	1-7 (0.125)	22-25 (0.468)
Year 5-8	7-0 (1.000)	15-2 (0.882)	14-8 (0.636)	1-6 (0.143)	37-16 (0.665)
Total	13-0 (1.000)	27-10 (0.730)	17-18 (0.486)	2-13 (0.133)	59-41 (0.583)

So Gary Pinkel has performed slightly better across the board, but clearly both have done wonderful jobs turning iffy programs into winners. And as with Gary PInkel, Mangino will lose quite a few impact players after his eighth season, so he'll be starting Year #9 with a somewhat fresh slate just the same.

Looking at Pythagorean wins suggests that KU should have actually done a bit better overall, but the improvement has been easily measurable, and Mangino clearly is a pretty good coach. He's just not better than Pinkel.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 118.1 (#19)
Success Rate+: 115.8 (#16)
PPP+: 121.5 (#28)

Standard Downs S&P+: 110.0 (#33)
Passing Downs S&P+: 128.0 (#16)

Redzone S&P+: 125.1 (#12)

Q1 S&P+: 126.7 (#18)
Q2 S&P+: 108.6 (#44)
Q3 S&P+: 105.2 (#53)
Q4 S&P+: 126.6 (#10)

1st Down S&P+: 114.5 (#26)
2nd Down S&P+: 110.9 (#42)
3rd Down S&P+: 124.0 (#21)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 118.8 (#21)
Rushing SR+: 120.9 (#7)
Rushing PPP+: 116.4 (#42)

Standard Downs: 106.3 (#48)
Passing Downs: 130.3 (#24)

Redzone: 120.0 (#30)

Line Yards+: 115.0 (#19)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.2 (#25)
Passing SR+: 111.6 (#24)
Passing PPP+: 119.7 (#27)

Standard Downs: 113.0 (#24)
Passing Downs: 122.5 (#24)

Redzone: 131.3 (#13)

Sack Rate+: 103.3 (#61)

Kansas stepped backwards by four games from their 12-1 season in 2007 to 8-5 in 2008. A lot of that dropoff was schedule-based (as mentioned above, they didn't actually lose to a team ranked below 23rd in S&P+), but was it measurable in the numbers too? Not really.

2007 vs 2008

S&P+: 39th in 2007, 19th in 2008
Success Rate+: 40th in 2007, 16th in 2008
PPP+: 41st in 2007, 28th in 2008
Rushing S&P+: 35th in 2007, 21st in 2008
Passing S&P+: 41st in 2007, 25th in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: 30th in 2007, 33rd in 2008 (regression!)
Passing Downs S&P+: 54th in 2007, 16th in 2008 (a-ha!)

That they actually improved offensively in 2008 despite the regression in record says two things: 1) they could be pretty damn good in 2009, and 2) not to beat a dead horse, but...their schedule was so freaking weak in 2007!!

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Quarterback

Forever and ever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Todd Reesing (5'11, 200, Sr.)
Kale Pick (6'2, 200, RSFr.)
Chase Knighton (6'1, 195, So.)

If this team is relying on Passing Downs success to win their first North title, then they're going as far as Todd Reesing can take them. He was at his improvisational best against Oklahoma and Missouri, scrambling and seemingly inventing routes on the fly on his way to a combined 717 passing yards and 6 TDs (and, to be fair, 4 INTs). The Brett Favre comparison gets overused these days, and while Reesing doesn't quite see the Favre-esque extremes that someone like Matt Grothe does (he's only thrown more than 2 picks in a game twice), it's definitely in him, much moreso than with Chase Daniel, who was also given that "gunslinger" label (even though Chase was, in the end, about as robotic as a QB can be).

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Which, in the end, is about as Favre-esque as you can get.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #69 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jake Sharp (5'10, 195, Sr.)
Reil Lewis (5'10, 201, So.)
Deshaun Sands? (5'9, 182, Fr.)
Toben Opurum? (6'2, 239, Fr.)

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

For better or worse, Sharp is the horse of this unit. Their two other POE-eligible running backs, Angus Quigley (165th) and Jocques Crawford (153rd), are either no longer playing running back (Quigley moved to LB) or no longer on the team (Crawford left Lawrence after, uhh, some drama). What remain are Reil Lewis and a couple of brank, spanking new options in Deshaun Sands and big Toben Opurum. Expect either or both of the freshmen to play this year, though you never want to rely too much on freshmen. Barring injury, Sharp will still carry a majority of the load.

One more thing: if Sands, ~~brother~~ son of the one and only Tony Sands, sees the field at Arrowhead this November, somebody should take precautionary measures and break his freaking kneecaps. Nothing personal, ahem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Dezmon Briscoe (6'3, 200, Jr.)
Kerry Meier (6'3, 220, Sr.)
Johnathan Wilson (6'3, 189, Jr.)
Raimond Pendleton (5'11, 192, Sr.)
Tertavian Ingram (6'0, 200, Jr.)
Isiah Barfield (6'0, 184, So.)
Reece Petty (6'2, 195, Jr.)
Willie O'Quinn (6'0, 190, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Tim Biere (6'4, 246, So.)
Bradley Dedeaux (6'3, 252, Jr.)
Nick Plato (6'6, 242, RSFr.)

I'll be the first to admit that I need to figure out a better method of ranking WR/TE units. Both Kansas and Missouri ranked in the 20s in this category, but...well, until I figure out a better way, this is what we've got. KU definitely has the scariest 1-2 punch in the North. Briscoe and Meier combined for 189 catches, 2,452 yards, and 23 TDs in 2008, simply insane numbers. Johnathan Wilson (43 for 573, 3 TDs) is a solid third option, but...well, talking about anybody but Briscoe and Meier as the headliners is like saying Wilt Chamberlain and I have combined to sleep with over 10,000 women...it's very impressive, but it completely takes away from the real accomplishment.

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

I am working on the assumption that 2009 will be Briscoe's last season in Lawrence--he's got good NFL size and speed, plus grades appear to be an issue, which sometimes pulls people toward the pros a little sooner than otherwise--meaning the KU receiving corps will take on a completely different look in 2010. But we'll talk about that in 2010. For now, this is the best WR unit in the North, and any production they get from the tight end position (which, last year, was almost nonexistant--Tim Biere and Bradley Dedeaux combined for all of 8 catches and 74 yards) is just icing.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #32 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Jeremiah Hatch (6'3, 311, So.)
T Jeff Spikes (6'6, 314, So.)
G Sal Capra (6'3, 292, Jr.)
G Carl Wilson (6'4, 292, Jr.)
T Tanner Hawkinson (6'6, 260, RSFr.)
G John Williams (6'4, 338, RSFr.)
G Trevor Marrongelli (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
C Brad Thorson (6'3, 290, Jr.)
T Ian Wolfe (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Darius Parish (6'4, 341, So.)

Consider the offensive line Major Kansas Question Mark #1 (the second will come when we talk about the defense). They have the fewest returning career starts in the conference (lower than even OU), and of the ten names I was able to dig up for a depth chart (question for KU fans: is senior Jose Rodriguez still with the team? He's not on the 2009 KU roster, but I saw him mentioned at RCT), there are no seniors and only four juniors. This bodes well for 2010, when a solid, experienced line is trying to set the table for an almost 100% new set of skill position players, but for now it's a giant red flag for this offense. Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

Summary

Todd Reesing's interesting offseason workout plan was introduced to the country recently...and well, I just needed a place to reference that, so here you go. Now to the real summary:

It cannot be emphasized enough just how much this team relies on Reesing for success. They have an efficient but average running game and the greenest offensive line in the conference. Reesing has two explosive and heady options in Briscoe and Meier, but the Jayhawks will need things to click better than they did last year to navigate through the most brutal schedule in the North and win their first North title (no, 2007 does not count). The more Reesing has to rely on his great improvisational skills, the more likely KU is to fail, not because Reesing's talent will fall off or anything, but because you're simply setting yourself up for failure with the more Passing Downs you encounter.

The running game must click at least as well as it did last year, when a seemingly raw O-line produced very respectable line yardage totals, and KU must avoid relying on Passing Downs success because they will likely fall off in that regard in 2009. Missouri did from 2007 to 2008, and I think with the more data I get, the more common I will find these occurrences to be. I still think that, talent- and experience-wise, KU is the most proven overall team in the North, but they will need to be better than they were in 2008, and with that offensive line and their '08 over-reliance on Passing Downs success, it's far from a given that they actually will be better.

Kansas Links!

Bill C. — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 17:00:30 -0000

It's the final Opponent Week of the preseason! It's a shame that the season has to end with such a meaningless, non-rivalry game, huh?

(And I'll say this much...god bless MUtigers.com for the coverage they give and are allowed to give...things are much more locked down a couple hours west of Columbia...)

2008 Recap

2009 Previews

2009 schedule
CFN.com: 2009 Kansas Preview
CFN.com: 2009 Kansas Preview - Offense
CFN.com: 2009 Kansas Preview - Defense
Rock Chalk Talk: An Underrated Problem: Backup Running Back
Rock Chalk Talk: An Underrated Problem: Left Tackle
Rock Chalk Talk: An Underrated Problem: Defensive End
Rock Chalk Talk: Preseason Positional Breakdowns: Running Backs/Tight Ends
Rock Chalk Talk: Preseason Positional Breakdowns: Wide Receivers
Rock Chalk Talk: Positional Previews: Offensive Line
Rock Chalk Talk: Special Teams almost set...

2009 Spring Recap

Rock Chalk Talk: Spring Offensive Preview
Rock Chalk Talk: Spring Defensive Preview
Topeka Capital-Journal: Is KU favorite in North?
Topeka Capital-Journal: Psst, we hear KU is training
KUathletics.com: KU readies for Spring Practice
KUathletics.com: Reesing Leads Blue Team to 20-7 Victory over White Team

August Links

KUathletics.com: Kansas Football Notebook (Jayhawks complete first week of practice)
KC Star: Kansas' Jake Sharp outlasts all doubters
KC Star: Kansas No. 21
Topeka Capital-Journal: KU's Briscoe catching up

Other

Rock Chalk Talk: The Move to the 4-2-5 Defense
KC Star: Running back Jocques Crawford transferring from KU

And because any reason is a good reason...take it away, ZouDave...

Mizzou Links, 7-28-09

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 10:41:01 -0000

With Big 12 media days going on, we've got a boatload of Big 12 links...but first, the Missouri ones.

PowerMizzou continues its ongoing Most Valuable Tigers series with No. 6, Dan Hoch.

Missouri's highest-ranked recruit, Nick Demien of Timberland (#61 on the Rivals 100), is looking to end his recruitment soon. Oregon and Wisconsin have a small chance, while his leaders are Missouri and Oklahoma. Unlike others, I'm pretty confident with this one. I'll say it's 60% Missouri, 30% Oklahoma, 5% Oregon, and 5% Wisconsin. Now watch him pick Wisconsin.

(Meanwhile, an even bigger-time recruit, top WR Kyle Prater, has apparently eliminated Mizzou from his list of favorites. Not at all surprising, though it would have been fun to get a visit from him.

Aaaaaand that's about it, Mizzou-wise. To the Big 12 links!

First up, a link from ACCsports.com (via Backing the Pack) that has, well, an interesting blurb:

Another intriguing possibility was raised in a question by ACCSports.com Media Watch columnist Brett Friedlander. Brett noted that the Sports Business Journal has reported that there have been discussions of a joint network between the ACC and either the Big 12 or the Pac-10.

Understandably this made Swofford a bit uncomfortable, what with some of the current rights holders in the room at the time. He first took steps to address that aspect.

"Our most primary discussions are with our current rights holders, as they should be," he said.

Swofford did say that, hypothetically speaking, if those talks broke down, other options would be on the table.

Interesting concept. If it goes beyond football, an ACC/Big 12 Network would have an interesting impact during basketball season and could lead to better exposure for Big 12 basketball (or not)...

An Underrated Problem: Backup Running Back

rockchalk — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 19:35:47 -0000

View full size photo »

Coming into this season, there seems to be two primary problems that preseason magazines are focusing on: interior line play and linebackers. This makes sense, of course, as we lost all 6 starters in those two positions. However, there are more than just two potential holes on this team. This week, we'll be documenting all of these "mini-issues", if you will, starting off today with backup running back.

Why It's a (Potential) Problem

Football goes through evolutions. Progressions. It's newest progression en vogue, the spread offense, has a couple of specifications. Smaller offensive linemen. Countless wideouts scattered across the field. Heavy use of the shotgun. And, more often than not, a pair of running backs to share the load. One of the central components of the spread is to get as many receivers into a position to catch the ball as possible. Limit the amount of blockers, and send everybody out on a pattern. This leads to a lot more running tiring the running backs out quicker, etcetera etcetera. This leads to a need to have at least two bodies to shuffle in and out, to keep people fresh.

When our running game has had its most success under Offensive Coordinator Ed Warriner, it has featured two runningbacks. Sure, in 2007 Brandon McAnderson received the lion's share of carries, just as Jake Sharp should receive this season. But in 2007, Sharp was always there to give B-Mac the breaks he needed. Last year, we went back-and-forth between Sharp, Jocques Crawford and Angus Quigley. They all had their moments, particularly Quigley and Sharp, but no one really ever emerged as "the" running back until late in the season, when Jake did. But with Crawford leaving school and Quigley switching to linebacker, there is no clear-cut backup to Sharp.

This is a problem. Particularly given the aforementioned interior offensive line problems, it'd be nice to have a standard duo of runningbacks to provide some yards. We know what Sharp can provide; yards in mini-spurts, but not a whole lot of big play ability. Ideally, we'd match him up with a homerun hitter or a real masher up the middle (one extreme or the other), but anyone who can provide consistent production would be better than nothing.

If not, we're in the same boat as last year. As good as our passing attack is, it's tough to consistently win games with a one-dimensional offense. With two running backs, it would take the ease off of Jake Sharp, the rest of our offense. Even our defense.

The Potential Solutions

Here are the people who could save us from such a potential problem. Obviously, Jake Sharp won't be included; he's already a given in this exercise as the primary share holder of carries in this year's backfield. Of course, this could change, but I don't see that happening.

Rell Lewis (rsSoph.)

Rell is my personal favorite to take over the reserve role. Reports said he looked fantastic in the Spring Game, which is nice. He came to Lawrence a wideout, but switched to RB around the same time that we had a RB exodus last season, when Carmon Boyd-Anderson and Donte Bean transferred away and we became woefully short on bodies. He's about the same size as Sharp, but 11 pounds thicker. Similar running style, although I would imagine he could run between the tackles a little more effectively.

He played QB in High School, so it's tough to get too much off of his Rivals tapes. Still, 30 seconds through this video (free to watch Rivals subscriber or not), there is a clip of him taking a QB draw through a lot of traffic. He looks good. Earlier on in the video, he outruns the entire defense to the edge. Obviously, it's largely irrelevant, particularly considering he's packed on 20-odd pounds since then under Dawson's weight program, but it's the best we've got.

Rell Lewis - Muskogee, OK @ Rivals Video

Also looking at his offer sheet, Air Force offered him a schollie. They run a triple option, so I'd imagine they thought of him as a slotback in the system, fast enough to run around to the outside past defenders. This is assuredly looking too far into events that don't tell you much at the time, much less 20-odd pounds and 3 years later, but it's all we have. We're sticking with it.

In conclusion, he's still my favorite to win the job. Of course, that has every bit as much to do with the dearth of just about anyone else with experience in the program, but hey. It all counts the same in the end. He doesn't match up perfectly with Jake, with his style appearing to mimic Jake's; able to pick up yards both inside and out, without a real ability to break off long runs or consistently pound it up the middle. But, if he's the second-best (or, hey, maybe even best) runningback out there, he should play.

Other options are looked at after the break.

Toben Opurum (Fresh.)

Really, this guy probably has the most talent of all of the options, even including Jake. He was a 4-STAR recruit according to Rivals, and was offered a schollie from ol' Coach Front Butt over at Notre Dame (and Nebraska and Texas Tech and even Florida). For some of those teams, like Notre Dame and Nebraska. he likely would have played fullback, but if Florida and Tech thought he was good enough to be a running back in a spread system, it's plenty good enough for me. And he did play in a spread system in high school, so he has experience in the general concepts of it.

Plus, he's big enough, at 6'2" 235, to provide a substantial change-of-pace to Sharp. Because of the similar size and B-Mac's immense success in his time in Lawrence, he's drawn plenty of comparions to McAnderson, and that would be tantastic. As a freshman, though, that might be a little much to ask.

Watching this video at MaxPreps, though, definitely reminds you of B-Mac though. Sneaky quickness (and really, Opurum is probably quicker), but more importantly he runs through the middle with a purpose. It's tough to measure against high schoolers, but he appears to be a better athlete than McAnderson, running more frequently to the outside as well as being a fantastic receiver out of the backfield - I remember hearing sometime during his senior season that he had more catches than carries, or something like that.

he should definitely be a factor in any discussion, and will probably find himself getting consistent carries at some point in the season. He has everything you'd want in a spread running back, particularly as a complement to a smaller back like Sharp - it's just a matter of how quickly he adjusts to the college game.

Deshaun Sands (Fresh.)

This isn't likely. Although he probably does fit the profile of a homerun hitter, being able to break off huge runs with ease, everything I've heard/read says he probably isn't ready to contribute right away. Our RB corps is quite thin, so he might not get the redshirt year he probably should, but hopefully he does. Tuxedo Tony's son has all the makings of a special partner to Opurum in the coming years, but it will probably take a year-or-two before then.

Tyler Hunt (rsFresh.)

To be honest, I've never heard of Tyler Hunt before scanning the roster for any other running backs. And, he isn't technically a running back, officially listed as a fullback. The only fullback. But given our complete lack of using a fullback, I'd figure he is really just a running back. Just a huge one.

But, don't immediately look him over. I mean, he is from Lawrence High School. And he's big for a running back. That's about the only two comparisons between him and B-Mac, but it's enough to get me excited. Okay, not really. But it's fun to talk about. And hey, with how few possibilities are out there, and the staff likely wanting to redshirt Sands, Hunt just may find himself in the game with an injury or two.

So, The Solution Is...

Like I said, I'm buying Rell Lewis. At least at the onset of the season. As the season progresses, though, I'd imagine Toben Opurum's role in the offense to continue to expand. He has a bright future ahead of him. But, I'm a big Rell Lewis fan, just because I love players getting chances to play. This is almost assuredly going to be his biggest chance in his career, though, so make it happen Rell. If not, you may be stuck on special teams units the rest of your career.

And, while he wasn't included, I suppose Jocques Crawford should be counted in the race as well. If he sticks around, he will probably be the second RB. However, I'd put the chances of him sticking around at something like 5%, so it isn't looking likely. Maybe not even that high.

In the end, I think the running game will turn out fine. It will probably go through some rough patches, particularly early on in the season, but everything should be worked out in time for the meat of the schedule. It better be, at least.

The Fog of '09 - North Offenses

Bill C. — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football. Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season. Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons. Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers. Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge. Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs. Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility. While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened. And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected. Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen. Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous. Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009. Daniel and Harrell? Gone. Crabtree and Maclin? Almost certainly gone. McCoy, Bradford, Freeman? Possibly gone. Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris? Gone. Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility. So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus. Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion." For '09? "New" Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009. We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009. We'll start with the North Division. To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers. There will certainly be a time and place for that. Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings. And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits. Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy. Plus, you'll probably be wrong. Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Quarterbacks

Kansas (Todd Reesing)
Kansas State (Josh Freeman--for now)
Iowa State (Austen Arnaud)
Missouri (Blaine Gabbert)
Nebraska (Patrick Witt/Zac Lee)
Colorado (Cody Hawkins/Tyler Hansen)

I probably shouldn't stick CU's duo below two relative newcomers at MU and NU, but I just can't help it. And if Josh Freeman is gone and Carson Coffman is next year's starter at KSU, pencil KSU into the #4 or #5 spot. And while either Gabbert or Witt/Lee (Pac Litt?) can or will overtake Arnaud by the end of the season, I couldn't rank two returning starters below QBs who've never taken a meaningful snap.

Running Backs

Missouri (Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore)
Nebraska (Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille)
Kansas (Jake Sharp, Jocques Crawford)
Colorado (Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott)
Iowa State (Alexander Robinson)
Kansas State (Lamark Brown, Logan Dold)

Of all the departures for '09, the running back position actually looks not only solid, but strong. Washington, Helu and Sharp are all relatively proven at this point, and at any moment Stewart and Scott could emerge in a big way. Even Alexander Robinson and Lamark Brown have had their moments this year. This is something to watch for '09--while offenses may not be as high-flying, they still might be pretty darn effective thanks to the ground games.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Kansas (Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier, Johnathan Wilson)
Missouri (Jared Perry, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones)
Kansas State (Brandon Banks, Deon Murphy, Aubrey Quarles)
Nebraska (Niles Paul, Menelik Holt, Mike McNeill)
Colorado (Josh Smith, Scotty McKnight, Riar Geer)
Iowa State (Houston Jones, Sedrick Johnson, Derrick Catlett)

Kansas is clearly #1 here, but after that, #2-#5 is something of a crapshoot. I feel like a homer for putting Mizzou at #2, but while they won't have the speed of KSU's unit, they'll still have the speed-size mix that few other teams do. And naturally, I'm assuming Jeremy Maclin is gone. Mizzou is clearly #1 if Maclin returns, but I very much do not see that happening. Paul and Holt could make NU's unit pretty effective, but they haven't gone all the way in proving that just yet.

Offensive Lines

Missouri (OG Kurtis Gregory, C Tim Barnes, OT Elvis Fisher)
Nebraska (C Jacob Hickman, OG Keith Williams, OT Jaivorio Burkes)
Colorado (OT Nate Solder, OT Ryan Miller, OG Devin Head)
Kansas State (OG Brock Unruh, OT Edward Prince, OT Nick Stringer)
Kansas (OT Jeremiah Hatch, OT Jeff Spikes)
Iowa State (OG Reggie Stephens, OT Ben Lamaak, C Alex Alvarez)

Missouri will have by far the highest-upside offensive line in the North next year. That can only help when a) protecting a young QB and b) clearing the way for the North's #1 RB. If Mizzou is to win the North despite having to replace Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, it's Washington and the nice O-line who will get it done.

After Mizzou, NU's probably got the most upside in this unit. Colorado's fought through youth and injuries this year and could emerge next year with a solid O-line because of the struggles. After that...no idea. KSU returns quite a bit from an iffy-at-best O-line, and KU loses both starting guards and center. Not good. And while I like Reggie Stephens at ISU, he's about all ISU has.

So, keeping this as unscientific as possible, if we assign 6 points for every #1 ranking, 5 for every #2, et cetera, how do the North offenses add up?

North Offenses, 2009

Missouri (20 points)
Kansas (18 points)
Nebraska (15 points)
Kansas State (13 points)
Colorado (10 points)
Iowa State (8 points)

If Josh Freeman goes pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (18)
Nebraska (16)
Kansas State (10)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (9)

If Jeremy Maclin DOESN'T go pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (17)
Nebraska (15)
Kansas State (13)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (8)

I'm obviously not going to take this rather arbitrary ranking system too seriously and say "See? This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Missouri will have the best offense in the North next year!" or anything like that. This does show, though, that each team will have defined strengths and weaknesses (Mizzou = good running, iffy passing; Kansas = good passing, iffy blocking, KSU = good passing, no running, CU = possibly good running, no passing), which means unit-to-unit matchups and home-road scheduling will matter more next year than it has in the last couple of years.

And speaking of those matchups, tomorrow we'll look at North defenses.