SB Nation - Daymond Patterson

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

You expected some other way to start out this post?

Every Border War win feels a little bit more triumphant than other wins, but this year packs a bit of extra meaning. Missouri has a chance to end both Todd Reesing's career and Mark Mangino's tenure in Lawrence with a single victory; meanwhile, Reesing and Mangino have a chance to extend their lives with an upset win in what is potentially their last game together.

I'll say this out front: I try to tune extracurricular detail out of these previews. I said last week that I don't necessarily believe in a positive Senior Day effect, and just the same, I doubt there is any net gain or loss to things like Kansas fighting for Mark Mangino's life in Lawrence. Extra emotion can go either way in the end, but let's just say this: I expect both Missouri and Kansas to bring their respective A-games to Arrowhead; and really, it shouldn't be any other way.

Offense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Once again, KU is a strong Passing Downs team, but they have only been a good overall offense instead of a great overall offense. And with their defense struggling for much of the season, good hasn't really cut it.

Kansas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	115.0 (30)	104.1 (48)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	112.4 (23)	100.0 (62)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	121.3 (37)	110.1 (46)

Rushing S&P+	109.2 (41)	111.2 (39)
Passing S&P+	116.9 (30)	98.2 (62)

Standard Downs S&P+	118.4 (24)	112.7 (31)
Passing Downs S&P+	131.4 (17)	95.0 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	127.8 (17)	110.5 (44)

Q1 S&P+	106.1 (65)	90.2 (85)
Q2 S&P+	121.4 (24)	121.6 (29)
Q3 S&P+	144.4 (4)	106.9 (47)
Q4 S&P+	128.3 (11)	115.3 (28)

1st Down S&P+	125.8 (12)	108.0 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	122.7 (29)	99.4 (62)
3rd Down S&P+	117.6 (34)	113.7 (38)

Line Yards+	104.6 (53)	103.7 (46)
Close Sack Rate+	91.9 (69)	90.8 (73)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	107.3 (59) / 85.5 (81)	102.5 (57) / 116.4 (39)

As you'll see, both offenses have significant advantages in this one, so the game could come down to which individual playmakers step up the most. Danario Alexander and Sean Weatherspoon, or Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Darrell Stuckey? Blaine Gabbert or Todd Reesing?

When KU Has the Ball...
KU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KU Passing	Advantage: KU
Best Time for KU:	Q1, Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2

Mizzou Advantages:

Passing Downs Sack Rate+

And for KU...

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Passing S&P+
Standard, Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+

No matter what happens in this game, Missouri will once again end up with a more successful regular season than Kansas. This has been the norm with Gary Pinkel against Mark Mangino. That said, it's pretty easy to see that KU has a number of matchup advantages to work with, and if Todd Reesing is dialed in and playing well, this game is a complete tossup shootout.

Mizzou's path to success, however, comes on Passing Downs. They must successfully blitz on those downs; if they do, KU's other advantages can be negated pretty quickly.

Quarterback

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Todd Reesing: 276-for-441 passing (62.6%), 3,118 yards (7.1 per pass), 18 TD, 9 INT

As a whole, Reesing has certainly put up solid numbers this year; however, after QB ratings in the 148-150 range both of his first two years as a starter, his has fallen to just 131.4 this year, and he has been every bit as all-or-nothing as in years past. Against Iowa State, he went 37-for-49 for 442 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT; he followed that up with another 401 yards against Colorado. Then, against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, he went a combined 42-for-77 (54.5%) for 405 yards (5.3 yards per pass), 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a sub-100 QB rating. We should all expect to see his best performance tomorrow, but anything less than his best might not get the job done.

Running Back

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

Toben Opurum: 133 carries, 554 yards (4.2 per carry), 9 TD, 13 receptions, 105 yards (8.1 per catch), 1 TD
Jake Sharp: 95 carries, 400 yards (4.2 per carry), 4 TD; 26 receptions, 188 yards (7.2 per catch), 3 TD
Rell Lewis: 10 carries, 60 yards

Toben Opurum is out with an injury, but I cannot really say I can tell any difference whatsoever between Opurum and Jake Sharp. Their numbers suggest that they are virtually the same running back. Opurum is a bit bigger, and Sharp is a bit faster, but in all, KU's running game probably will not get going that much on Saturday (knock on wood). Mizzou's rush defense has improved considerably throughout this season, and if they can stop Sharp and get to Reesing on passing downs, they should win. It's if they don't get to Reesing where the problems may start...

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

WR Kerry Meier: 92 receptions, 931 yards (10.1 per catch), 6 TD
WR Dezmon Briscoe: 70 receptions, 1,095 yards (15.6 per catch), 7 TD
WR Jonathan Wilson: 35 receptions, 449 yards (12.8 per catch)
WR Bradley McDougald: 31 receptions, 285 yards (9.2 per catch)

TE Tim Biere: 12 receptions, 134 yards (11.2 per catch)

KU's Border War strategy last year was very effective; what's scary is, Mizzou has become even more vulnerable to that sort of strategy in 2009. If Mizzou is unable to corral the short pass, Reesing could very easily go over 400 yards. If Mizzou fans are having nightmares tonight, it is probably because of Meier and Briscoe.

Offensive Line

Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

KU's offensive line has been distinctly average in 2009, improving slightly as the year has progressed. Mizzou's line, meanwhile, has also improved as the year has progressed, particularly in terms of line yards and passing down sack rates. If Mizzou can win this matchup by quite a bit, it could negate the passing advantage KU appears to have.

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Defense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

While the offense actually got better, the defense got measurably worse despite nine returning starters (sound familiar, Mizzou fans?). They lost a second-team All-American in James McClinton at defensive tackle--the only loss other than Aqib Talib--and it seems to have made a difference.

Kansas was a bit worse defending the pass, a lot worse at defending the run, and in particular they gave up a ton more big plays (PPP+). This year, they return their entire secondary and three of four starters on the defensive line (losing only end Russell Brorsen)...but lose all three starting linebackers. So the passing numbers improve and the rushing numbers regress, maybe?

I was half-right above. The rushing numbers have certainly regressed ... but then, so have the passing numbers. After some adjustments resulted in better defensive play in the middle of the season, KU's defense just has not been able to maintain a spark. They looked good at times against both Kansas State and Nebraska in recent weeks, but their breakdowns have been killers, as evidenced by the fact that they rank a ridiculous 93rd in PPP+. Mizzou's big-play ability, matched with KU's inability to stop the big play, represent Mizzou's single biggest advantage.

KU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.3 (82)	117.2 (27)
Close Success Rate+	96.2 (76)	108.4 (37)
Close PPP+	87.4 (93)	133.1 (21)

Rushing S&P+	84.0 (107)	107.6 (47)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (57)	125.9 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (85)	114.6 (28)
Passing Downs S&P+	106.3 (50)	109.5 (53)

Red Zone S&P+	92.3 (87)	85.9 (104)

Q1 S&P+	106.0 (53)	118.1 (42)
Q2 S&P+	107.9 (54)	115.1 (44)
Q3 S&P+	86.2 (98)	122.8 (22)
Q4 S&P+	92.6 (79)	105.8 (55)

1st Down S&P+	94.2 (77)	120.2 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	97.0 (69)	108.5 (53)
3rd Down S&P+	102.1 (60)	110.1 (57)

Line Yards+	94.1 (84)	97.7 (77)
Close Sack Rate+	135.7 (16)	150.0 (28)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	141.6 (19) / 112.2 (48)	251.2 (10) / 113.6 (51)

When they are not forcing turnovers, this unit is simply not getting the job done.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KU:	First Half
Best Time for Missouri:	Second Half

MU's advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

KU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+

As with Mizzou's defense, KU's defense has few advantages, but can use what they have to great benefit. If KU is able to hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven by shutting things down in the red zone, then they will find it a lot easier to outscore Mizzou.

Defensive Line

So if KU felt the absence of James McClinton more than any other in 2008, then it's up to either Jamal Greene (21 tackles, 7 TFL/sacks) to become a much more consistent force or Jeff City's own Richard Johnson (14 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks) to overtake him if KU's run defense is to improve. If not them, then who? Man-beast Darius Parish moved to OL. Somehow, someway, there needs to be a better push up the middle.

And on the outside too. Solid-not-spectacular end Jake Laptad (8.5 TFL/sacks) offers hope for a pass rush, but he'll need help. The lack of a pass rush was bad enough last year that LB James Holt moved to end toward the end of the year, and KU fans seem to have hope that 4-star JUCO transfer Quintin Woods will thrive pretty quickly. The other options (Jeff Wheeler, Maxwell Onyegbule, or some younger guy) don't seem ready or capable, so all eyes are on Woods. If Woods doesn't catch on, KU fans start getting worried.

DE Jake Laptad: 37.0 tackles, 12.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR, 6 QBH
DE Max Onyegbule: 23.5 tackles, 10.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 5 QBH
DT Caleb Blakesley: 12.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Richard Johnson: 12.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
DE Jeff Wheeler: 11.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 8 QBH

As with many highly-touted JUCO transfers (hello, Jocques Crawford ... and Andy Maples, for that matter), Quintin Woods came to Lawrence with much ado and produced almost nothing. He has a whopping four tackles for the season. Which means my prediction more or less came true -- Woods didn't catch on, and the KU defensive line was a liability, at least against the run. Rushing the passer, they've been pretty solid. Laptad (6.5 sacks), Wheeler (5.5) and Onyegbule (5.0) have all had their moments, and KU has been at its most successful getting pressure on the passer while not committing LBs to the blitz. They've been a sieve against the run, though.

Linebackers

While the RB situation isn't in wonderful shape right now, it's still no surprise that Angus Quigley was moved from RB to LB. There's clearly a major void in terms of proven playmakers, so really at this point Kansas just needs as many warm bodies as possible to throw out there and see what they've got. Never say never, but it's hard to see this unit gelling into a solid unit quickly. Whether they call it this or not, you do have to figure that with an experienced secondary, KU will be playing a lot of 4-2-5 or nickel coverage.

LB Drew Dudley: 64.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
LB Huldon Tharp: 44.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Arist Wright: 34.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Justin Springer: 18.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH

True freshman Huldon Tharp has gotten some good press recently for racking up a large number of tackles in recent weeks; but that's all they are: tackles. He is not much of a disruptive force -- much more Luke Lambert than future Sean Weatherspoon. Drew Dudley, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise. With Angus Quigley failing to figure out the LB position in just one offseason (that is the norm, not the exception), Dudley, a junior, has stepped up and made a decent number of plays behind the line of scrimmage.

The LB corps has been solid in pass coverage, but their run support and blitzing have, as a whole, left something to be desired.

Secondary

As devoid of experience that the KU linebacker corps is, the secondary is the polar opposite. Five players with solid starting experience return, led by Mizzou killer Darrell Stuckey, who almost single-handedly fended off the Tiger offense for the entire first half last November at Arrowhead. ... Mark Mangino has some interesting ingredients, and he's not afraid to shuffle things around. Justin Thornton's been around forever (seems like just yesterday that he was getting decapitated by Tony Temple at Faurot Field), and while he's a proven commodity, he's also in Mangino's doghouse. If he doesn't end up starting (I assume he will, but...well, Mangino's got an angry side), then it looks like Anthony Davis will be the man opposite Daymond Patterson at CB. Both are sophomores. Meanwhile, junior safety Chris Harris was a star freshman in 2007 before losing his starting spot last year. He still managed the second-most successful tackles in the secondary in 2008, however, and I'm going to figure he'll still play a role opposite Phil Strozier and Stuckey.

CB Chris Harris: 67.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 7 PBU
S Darrell Stuckey: 66.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH
S Justin Thornton: 58.0 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
S Lubbock Smith: 32.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
CB Daymond Patterson: 27.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 PBU
CB D.J. Beshears: 16.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Anthony Davis: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
S Ryan Murphy: 11.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
S Phil Strozier: 11.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH

It's been a strange year for the KU secondary. Relatively speaking, it has still somewhat been a strength of this defense, but 2009 has seen all sorts of personnel shuffling and slump busting. Career doghouse resident Chris Harris has turned out to be the star of the secondary (again), while Justin Thornton has, at times, taken Harris' place in the doghouse. Darrell Stuckey has certainly been good, but he hasn't quite lived up to my own expectations for him. Meanwhile, Lubbock Smith emerged as a potential leader in the secondary but has been hindered recently by injury. He is a game-time decision.

In all, this is a crafty, experienced secondary, and I'm sure that, if given the opportunity, they will take advantage of any mistakes by Blaine Gabbert or any drops by Mizzou receivers. That said, they still aren't quite as scary as I thought they would be, and I'm a lot more confident in Mizzou's potential ability to win a shootout than I was a couple of months ago.

Special Teams

KU was decent in the kicking and punt return games, but kick returns produced eight yards fewer in 2008, and that really can make a pretty big difference. It might help explain how KU's Offensive S&P+ actually improved in 2008, yet KU scored 10 fewer points per game. Dez Briscoe was outstanding in limited opportunities, but it seems KU is making a concerted effort not to wear him out (Jeremy Maclin managed to do it all, ahem...just sayin'...), and early indications (according to Rock Chalk Talk) are that sophomore Isiah Barfield might take over the duties, at least to start.
If KU gets anything from the kick return game, this is a decent special teams unit, not as good as Nebraska's (NU really does seem to have the best special teams unit in the North at this point), but solid. Alonso Rojas leaves something to be desired punting, but this is an offensive conference--kicks matter a hair more than punts, right?

Punt Returns Rank: 83rd (Daymond Patterson: 20 returns, 8.2 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 73rd (Alonso Rojas: 48 punts, 41.4 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 51st (Bradley McDougald: 20 returns, 19.2 avg; Dez Briscoe: 16 returns, 23.9 avg, 1 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 90th (Jacob Branstetter: 60 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks)

Field Goals: 80th (Jacob Branstetter: 12-for-18, long: 57)
PATs: 78th (Jacob Branstetter: 38-for-40)

In all, special teams are a giant "meh" unit. They are average to below average in both place-kicking and punting, and their return units are, Dez Briscoe aside, average as well. In all, Mizzou should be able to flip the field rather well with Jake Harry, and Mizzou's average return units might find at least some moderate success. But Briscoe is the key. To avoid overuse, Briscoe has not been the key return man this year, but he showed what he could do if given the opportunity with his effortless TD return last weekend in Austin. I get the sneaking suspicion that Briscoe will be the main return man tomorrow, and ... well, that scares the living daylights out of me. IF Mizzou doesn't give up serious field position and/or a touchdown in the kicking game tomorrow, they win the special teams battle. But with the way Mizzou has been covering on kickoffs, that's a huge if.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

MU's Running Game

Most of the previews, this one included, has focused on these two teams' respective passing games, but if Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Prediction

Gotta say, I do NOT like how well KU is capable of running the short passing game considering how vulnerable Mizzou has been to just that over the last few weeks. That is just not a matchup I like for Mizzou. However, Mizzou's own big-play ability might neutralize that a bit, and besides ... it's not like I let my own feelings get in the way of these predictions anyhow, right? The numbers say Mizzou by 4.7, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Kansas 26. Nothing between a 17-point win for Mizzou and a 17-point win for Kansas would surprise me, but being that the last two games have both gone down to the wire, we can probably expect more of the same here.

Kansas Lands Fifteen on the Academic All Big 12 List for Football

Denverjhawk — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:00:17 -0000

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Todd Reesing highlighted the list of 15 Kansas football players named Academic All-Big 12 by the league office Tuesday. The list includes nine players selected to the first team, including five repeat honorees as KU produced at least seven players named to the first team for the fourth straight year.

Student-athletes must post a 3.0 grade-point average, either cumulative or in the previous two semesters, and be regulars on the team to earn the league honors. First-team honorees must have at least a 3.2 grade-point average.

Reesing, a senior quarterback, was named to the first team for the third time, becoming the ninth Jayhawk in history to earn first-team academic all-conference honors three times.

Other KU first-team selections include two-time first-team honorees Jacob Branstetter, Drew Dudley, Justin Springer and Jeff Wheeler, who was a second-team selection in 2008 after earning first-team accolades in 2007.

Tim Biere, Trevor Marrongelli, Olaitan Oguntodu and Brad Thorson were named first team for the first time.

Second-team honorees include Greg Brown, Sal Capra, Kerry Meier, Daymond Patterson, Jake Schermer and Jake Sharp.

Sharp was recognized for the third time as he was a first-team honoree in 2007 and a two-time second-team selection. Meier was a second-team selection in 2007 and again this year. Schermer has been a second-team honoree in each of the last two years.

Reesing joined previous three-time honorees from Kansas including Ron Oelschlager, Ken Saathoff, Jim Moore, Greg Erb, Jake Letourneau, Kevin Kane, Russell Brorsen and John Larson.

Reesing and Dudley both earned Academic all-district honors earlier this season and are eligible for Academic All-America honors.

2009 Kansas Academic All-Big 12 Football Honorees

First Team

Tim Biere, TE, So., Pre-Business

Jacob Branstetter, PK, Jr., Management and Leadership

Drew Dudley, LB, Jr., Civil Engineering

Trevor Marrongelli, OL, Fr., Economics

Olaitan Oguntodu, S, Jr., Marketing

Todd Reesing, QB, Sr., Finance and Economics

Justin Springer, LB, Jr., Sport Management

Brad Thorson, OL, Jr., Economics, Masters

Jeff Wheeler, DE, Sr., Civil Engineering

Second Team

Greg Brown, DB, Fr., Pre-Business

Sal Capra, OL, Jr., Finance

Kerry Meier, WR, Sr., Sport Management

Daymond Patterson, CB, So., Pre-Sport Management

Jake Schermer, LB, Sr., Marketing

Jake Sharp, RB, Sr., Sport Management

Kansas vs. Missouri Matchup Breakdown

Denverjhawk — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

Why Kansas?	Edge	Scenario	Edge	Why Missouri?
Kansas looked better against the Longhorns offensively than they have in some time. The problem is, it still left something to be desired and that's points on the scoreboard. The good news is the Tigers aren't the Longhorns. Just like they did against the Longhorns though, the Jayhawks can move the ball if they are patient. Take what the defense gives you, take chances when the time is right and use every receiver on the field. It's a must in Arrowhead.	The Kansas Offense has the weapons and seemed to be getting back some of the balance that made them dangerous. This week I think they put enough of it together to take advantage of a so-so Missouri defense.	KU Offense vs. Missouri Defense		The Tigers are very good against the run. Make Kansas one dimensional, send the ends and create pressure on Reesing. Do those things and Kansas has shown it will struggle.
Kansas' defense looked lost at times against the Longhorns but then again who hasn't. If the Kansas defense wants to look better against Missouri they are going to have to avoid allowing the big play as they have been back breakers for confidence and momentum lately. The potential loss of Lubbock Smith is a big blow, but perhaps Darrell Stuckey might channel one more turnover making machine of a game ala 2008.		KU Defense vs. Missouri Offense	They may not be great at running the ball but you don't have to be against Kansas. The passing game has been open all year.	Missouri hasn't had the running game one would have expected going into the year but if they can at least show a commitment to the run it will make Blaine Gabbert very dangerous. Unlike Grant Gregory, Zack Lee and Tyler Hanson, Gabbert can make every throw on the football field. That's a scary premise considering the other three quarterbacks already beaten the Jayhawks.
What happened? Against one of the better special teams units in the land the Jayhawks came to life. Dezmon Brisoce returning one for a touchdown, Daymond Patterson getting off a punt return for positive yardage. Truly a shock. With this having the potential to be Briscoes last game in the Crimson and Blue, keep him back there and like last year he might just supply the spark the Jayhawks need.		Special Teams		Missouri is another team that's good but not great in terms of special teams. They can however win this battle just as easily as Kansas. Keep Briscoe under wraps and capitalize on an abysmal kickoff team for the Jayhawks and therein lies the biggest area the Tigers can capitalize and swing the momentum.
Not sure what to say here. If the stories are true and the players hate Coach Mangino then they would be winning in spite of him. If they aren't true and Coach Mangino get's a chance to use this as motivation we might see why we're going to miss the guy.		Coaching	Right now this is just a more certain entity. Kansas has too much going on right now to declare this an area of strength headed into the final game.	Pinkel and company have had an inconsistent team at times this year. Breaking in a few new coordinators and a plethora of youth has meant some growing pains. Still a good coach and even though Jason Whit(less)lock declared Mangino better, this week he might just have an advantage.

Kansas v Missouri in the Border War. There was a time when this looked to be the potential Big 12 North decider. All that has dramatically changed and Kansas needs a win just to get a bowl game and try to make something positive happen during a mess of a season on and off the field.

It'd be a very nice thing to make the headlines about the play on the field once again and the Jayhawks have a golden opportunity to do so if they can pull together, beat their rival and qualify for a bowl game. Kansas has a lot of obstacles to overcome, but regardless of where they side on the Mangino front it's time to realize it's not about him, it's about them and what's still left on the table this year.

Hawk Talk: Kansas Senior Day

Denverjhawk — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:00:24 -0000

News and Notes from the Week that was and the game to come...

The Good Guys...

Current losing streak hurts the Jayhawks.
Spread offenses falling out of favor in the Big12?
Opurums touches dwindle as Sharp returns.
KU Seniors final season not what they'd hoped.
Daymond Patterson fighting for playing time.
Nebraska front four a tough challenge for Kansas.

Denver's Take...

Short and sweet. Kansas is going to have to dig down deep and find something within themselves that hasn't been their for four weeks. Nebraska couldn't be a tougher challenge for this offense on the ropes but on Senior day I'm cautiously optimistic that the fire and passion returns. It has too or this season on a the brink goes down the tubes.

Some powerful words came out of some Kansas players this week and the first real sign that their still is some fire in the belly. Now it's time to translate it to the field. If any extra motivation was needed, look to Suh's quote about kicking a dog while he's down. In case you were wondering Kansas is the dog he's referring to.

I'll be in the seats for this one, an OGT will be up about a half hour before the game so enjoy and let's get a win, hell let's see if we can hang 77 on these guys...mmmm...that might be a stretch. Let's just find a way to win.

More Notes and Things to Look for After the Jump...

SENIOR DAY -- Saturday's game will be the final home appearance for the following seniors: LS Kayl Anderson, DT Caleb Blakesley, WR Kerry Meier, DE Maxwell Onyegbule, WR Raimond Pendleton, OL Jose Rodriguez, LB Angus Quigley, QB Todd Reesing, LB Jake Schermer, RB Jake Sharp, DE Dustin Spears, S Darrell Stuckey, S Justin Thornton, DE Jeff Wheeler, LB Arist Wright.

SENIOR NOTES -- Here are a few notes on this year's senior class:

In the last four seasons, the group is a combined 31-16 with three regular season games remaining.
Has posted a 21-5 record at home.
Has been to bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history.
Has posted KU's best two Big 12 North finishes tying for first in 2007 and placing third in 2008.
Has five players who have started at least 20 games (S Darrell Stuckey 39, QB Todd Reesing 35, WR Kerry Meier 35, DT Caleb Blakesley 29, S Justin Thornton 27).

KU-NU SERIES -- Nebraska leads the all-time series by an 89-23-3 count, including a 46-8-1 advantage in games played in Lawrence. Kansas has won the last two meetings in Lawrence, posting a 75-39 victory in 2007 and a 40-15 win in 2005. The 2005 victory snapped a 36-game losing streak to the Huskers, which began in 1969. Since that streak, the teams have split the last four games with the home team winning each time, including a 39-32 overtime victory by the Huskers in 2006 and last year's 45-35 NU win in Lincoln.

KU-NU IS NATION'S LONGEST UNINTERRUPTED SERIES -- The Kansas-Nebraska series will be played for the 104th consecutive year. That marks the nation's longest uninterrupted series. Minnesota and Wisconsin will be meeting for the 103rd time this year. KU and NU first met in 1892 and actually played 12 straight years until not playing each other in 1904 or 1905. Since resuming the series in 1906 the
teams have met every season.

SERIES IS THIRD-MOST PLAYED AS WELL -- The 115 prior meetings between the Jayhawks and Huskers rank as the third-most played rivalry in FBS history behind 118 games between Minnesota and Wisconsin and 117 games between Kansas and Missouri.

KU-NU LAST YEAR -- Nebraska outscored Kansas 31-21 in the second half en route to a 45-35 victory on a cold (35 degrees with 21 mile per hour winds) in Lincoln in 2008. The teams were tied at 14 at halftime behind Todd Reesing touchdown passes to Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe. KU led 21-17 with 4:32 left in the third quarter before NU's Roy Helu, Jr., scored twice. KU fought back with a Jake Sharp touchdown with 9:55 left in the game to come within 31-28 before the Huskers iced the game with two straight touchdowns. Reesing became the Kansas all-time passing yardage leader on his scoring toss to Meier. He finished the day 15 of 30 for 304 yards and three touchdowns, while Briscoe caught six passes for 176 yards and Sharp rushed 22 times for 90 yards. Darrell Stuckey recorded a team-high 15 tackles. NU produced 495 yards of offense to 422 by Kansas as the Huskers controlled the ball for 34:46.

KU-NU LAST TIME IN LAWRENCE -- Todd Reesing threw a school-record six touchdown passes and had 354 yards through the air, while Brandon McAnderson ran for 119 yards and a school-record tying four touchdowns as then No. 8 Kansas defeated Nebraska 76-39 in Lawrence on Nov. 3, 2007. After a three and out on its first possession, the Jayhawks scored on 10 of their next 11 possessions (exception was a one play kneel down to end the first half). KU's 76 points were the third-most in team history, as well as the most allowed by Nebraska in its history. The Jayhawks ran 90 plays en route to 572 yards of total offense. Reesing set school records for touchdown passes in a game (six) and in a single-season (23). Four of his TD passes came in the first half to four different receivers. KU forced four straight Nebraska turnovers in the second half, while forcing five on the day.

THINGS TO LOOK FOR AGAINST NEBRASKA:

WR Kerry Meier (2,082) needs 80 receiving yards to pass Mark Simmons (2,161) for third on the KU career receiving yardage list.
Meier (16) needs one touchdown catch to tie Willie Vaughn and Bruce Adams (17 each) for second on the KU career list. Dezmon Briscoe is first at 28.
Meier has caught at least two passes in 30 consecutive games.
Meier (197) and Briscoe (196) are just shy of 200 receptions for the their career. Jordy Nelson of Kansas State is 10th on the Big 12 career list with 206.
Briscoe has caught at least four passes in 12 straight games and at least two in 27 in a row.

re-Balancing the O

Denverjhawk — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:35:17 -0000

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Balance in the offense. Pretty common belief in football that balance in the offense leads to success in the offense. If all you do is run it becomes easier for teams to focus all their efforts at stopping it. At that point you can still be successful but you better have a mammoth offensive line and every player has to put a hat on a hat and play football.

What proves slightly more difficult is if all you are capable of is passing. Again at that point you better field an offensive line that creates a pocket, wins their matchups and more often than not allows very very few sacks. Still you likely need balance within your passing game itself. Does it do you any good to go five wide if only two are legitimate targets?

Right now the Kansas Jayhawks have no balance. There are other reasons for the current struggles and perhaps 2007 inflated expectations a bit to high but that season certainly points to some glaring reasons why 2009 and perhaps even to a lesser extent 2008 weren't as successful.

2007

First off let's take a look at the 2007 statistical breakdown for the Jayhawks offensively.

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	275	445	3486	61.8	7.83	33	7	148.9

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Brandon McAnderson	190	1125	5.9	40	16
Jake Sharp	111	556	5.0	25	5
Todd Reesing	92	197	2.1	53	3

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Marcus Henry	54	1014	18.8	82 (TD)	10
Dexton Fields	63	834	13.2	37	6
Dezmon Briscoe	42	496	11.8	34	7
Derek Fine	46	394	8.6	32	4
Kerry Meier	26	274	10.5	39	2
Brandon McAnderson	21	213	10.1	39	0
Aqib Talib	8	182	22.8	58 (TD)	4
Jake Sharp	19	134	7.1	31	1

Clearly we all know this was a good year offensively against a weaker schedule, but still it's not hard to see we were a much more balanced team.

Todd's numbers are what they are, amazingly he still looks to be on pace in 2009 for a better statistical year but that doesn't take into account the fumbles, the sacks and other wasted offensive plays that seem to be plaguing him this year.

A quick look at the running game vs. passing though and you'll see Kansas rushed for over 2400 yards in 2007 while passing for around 3700 as a team. 40% run, 60% pass, probably about par for the spread. Certainly some balance in that area and when you look inside each of those areas separately you see an equal amount of balance.

McAnderson 190 carries, Sharp 111 carries. Hell even Todd ran it 92 times although I wouldn't say that's the ideal scenario this year. Still why can't we see this type of split with Sharp and Opurum? Take away the Sharps injury and who knows if Toben sees the field much past UTEP.

In the passing game the spread amongst receivers is great. Marcus Henry with 54 catches, Dexton Fields with 63, Derek Fine with 46, Dezmon Briscoe at 42, Kerry Meier with 26 and running backs combined with a total of 40 balls thrown their way. No single player was the recipent of more than 22% of the teams receptions. Who does a defense focus on? It's pretty clear this year but in 2007 the ball was being distributed around no one man more emphasized than the next and it made the offense very difficult to defend. Isn't the point of the spread to get more athletes on the field than the other team and get them into space? So what good does it do if only two of those athletes see the ball? Just a question.

2008

Now let's jump to 2008 a year which was truthfully very close to being a disaster. A great game against Missouri and a monster comeback in Ames essentially made things feel a whole lot better than maybe they really were. Nonetheless it was a success but things were clearly trending away from the balance we saw in 2007.

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	329	495	3888	66.5	7.86	32	13	148.5

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Jake Sharp	186	860	4.6	47 (TD)	12
Angus Quigley	59	309	5.2	20	3
Jocques Crawford	62	232	3.7	20	4
Todd Reesing	126	224	1.8	18	4

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Dezmon Briscoe	92	1407	15.3	69 (TD)	15
Kerry Meier	97	1045	10.8	68 (TD)	8
Johnathan Wilson	43	573	13.3	56	3
Jake Sharp	25	283	11.3	67 (TD)	1
Dexton Fields	20	214	10.7	50	3
Daymond Patterson	14	154	11.0	44	2
Angus Quigley	17	82	4.8	14 (TD)	1

2008 final numbers were 1650 on the ground and just shy of 4000 through the air. Moves the Jayhawks to 30% of their yards on the ground and 70% through the air. If you remember the ground game really came on much stronger in conference play so I'll accept this as a failure in the non-conference combined with the fact that confidence was through the roof in the passing game. It worked too for the most part, even in the losses the offense was working.

Sharp was effective with over 180 carries on the year. The running game certainly wasn't to 2007 standards but we lost an All American left tackle and a senior right tackle so a dip was somewhat expected.

The passing game is where you begin to see a bit of a troubling trend. For all the talk of Reesing, Dez and Meier being great it shouldn't be hard for a defensive coordinator going forward to see where they need to pool their resources. There are two guys on this list that catch better than 60% of the balls thrown. Granted they were somewhat new on the scene and both are very good, but is everyone else a decoy? The spread the ball around distribution from 2007 is long gone.

All in all 2008 was productive and the offense never stalled out like it has this season but when you look at the numbers it would seem the Jayhawk playcalling was at the very least trending in the direction that has led to the complete unbalance we are seeing today.

2009

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	232	361	2626	64.3	7.27	17	8	136.5

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Toben Opurum	116	498	4.3	26 (TD)	9
Jake Sharp	83	368	4.4	30	3
Kale Pick	13	162	12.5	55	0
Todd Reesing	78	92	1.2	22	4

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Dezmon Briscoe	61	917	15.0	56	6
Kerry Meier	73	758	10.4	71	6
Johnathan Wilson	30	361	12.0	33	0
Bradley McDougald	28	263	9.4	42	0
Jake Sharp	23	178	7.7	56	3
Toben Opurum	12	110	9.2	30	1
Tim Biere	8	108	13.5	19	0

Here's a quick look at 2009 YTD. Currently Kansas sits at about 30% of their yards coming from the ground game and again about 70% in the air. On paper it wouldn't seem we've regressed in this area much from 2008 but only 313 of the rushing yards in 2009 have come after conference play began. Yep, 313 yards rushing in 5 games. How many would you guess in the first five conference games for 2008? 843 is the magic number, a 163 yard/game average. Our offense turned it on in 2008 when conference play began. So in this current skid it'd be safe to bet that maybe 10% of our offensive yardage is coming on the ground. Not tough to defend when you tell your front four to tee off and drop the other seven into coverage.

It becomes even less difficult when you realize that once again, two players on the Jayhawks are accounting for nearly 60% of their offensive receptions. Now I'll concede the fact that Johnathan Wilson has dropped a good number of passes this year but do we not have anyone else on the team that can catch a ball? Let's give them a shot. Against Kansas State Tetravian Ingram finally came in for Johnathan Wilson who has struggled of late. Missed the first pass thrown his way and yanked back to the sideline. The reactions to the two's behaviors seems a bit unproportional.

Also why doesn't Tim Biere see the ball more? He seems every bit as capable of making a catch as Derek Fine. Not too mention he runs like a truck down the field. Has he been tackled yet? or just eventually bounced out of bounds. The running backs are seeing about the same number of balls as they have in the past but the effectiveness is down. Too many middle screens and shovel passes perhaps? Why not check down to these guys on our normal every down passing plays when no one appears open?

To wrap up I just want to make it clear that what this group has done for the University of Kansas football program is immeasurable. It's made Saturday's matter again in the fall. Nobody sets out to lose and certainly these guys put in a tremendous amount of hours and effort all year. They deserve and will get my continued support. Somewhere though whether it rest with the man at the top, the offensive coordinator and certainly a little bit with the signal caller, this offense isn't remotely close to where it's been. In 2007 this team did it with players nobody wanted out of high school. Literally no one wanted Marcus Henry, Brandon McAnderson was far from the top of anyones list at running back and as I recall the Head Coach on the other sideline this past weekend didn't recruit Jake Sharp.

Kansas should be better, it's time to adapt what we're doing and fix the problems. Changes were swift on the defensive side of the ball, but are coming far too slowly for the offense. I'm headed back to Lawrence this week to see Senior day for this crew and I'm thrilled to say I'll send off Stuckey, Meier, Reesing, Sharp and likely Briscoe. I just hope that the teams struggles this year can be corrected enough to get them a bowl game and then going forward our program finds a way to adapt what we've done well in the past to continue moving forward as a program.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

TB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:48 -0000

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12. Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win. I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly? Yes. It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly. Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple. The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright. Two home games against division opponents remain. Odds: 10-1

Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it. Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU. Oh, and no confidence right now. Odds: 12-1

KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error. Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits. Odds: 15-1

Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left. Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now. Odds: 15-1

While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson. Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win. Odds: 30-1

Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback. Also, can't win on the road. Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion. Odds: 50-1

Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU). I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point. Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game. A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins. However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table. We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level. But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win. They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams. They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska). There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games. Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis. Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams). Yes, I thought Louisiana was better. They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in. Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS. When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall. Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete. Defensively, they're very, very good. Offensively, they struggle. I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling. K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best. Ditto A&M and Texas Tech. I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team. I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points. I still think OSU does have what it takes. It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget. The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake. On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise. Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen. No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1. Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2. Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3. Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4. Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!" Way to throw one of your own under the bus. But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5. K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here. The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6. Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense. Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points? If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7. KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now. Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8. Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now. If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again. If he doesn't, they're not.
9. Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2. Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win. On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10. Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week. Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11. Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan. Buffs need to regroup.
12. Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.

Kansas Football Notable Quotables 10.27.09

Denverjhawk — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:46:44 -0000

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This week Coach Mangino once again steps in front of the mic to discuss Oklahoma, Texas Tech, parity in the North, slow offensive starts, turnover woes and the youth movement at Kansas.

On the player side of things Todd Reesing, Jake Sharp and Daymond Patterson round out a smaller than normal group for this weeks presser. Also of note, there is no offensive player of the week this week. Perhaps a message is being sent.

Players of the Oklahoma Game

Defense: Jake Laptad

Special Teams: Jacob Branstetter

Scout Team Defensive Player of the Week: Josh Richardson

Scout Team Offensive Player of the Week: Jacob Morse

Head Coach Mark Mangino

Recap of last weekend's game vs. Oklahoma:

"We had mistakes early in the game that set us back and put us ‘behind the eight ball' so to speak, and we just could not recover from them [mistakes]. We played decent on defense or at least much improved. We needed a couple stops in the third quarter and we did not get that, so ultimately, we were not able to overcome a good football team when spotting them 14 points early in the game."

On this week's game vs. Texas Tech:

"This week we travel to Lubbock to play Texas Tech. Texas Tech is 5-3 and as always, they bring a high-powered offense. They are the No. 1 passing team in the country in Division I. They throw the ball well and catch it well. They have used three different quarterbacks this year, and all three have been effective at various times. I am not sure who exactly will play this week, but I don't believe they will change anything drastic in their system, so whoever they play at quarterback will do the same things that have been good for them for a long time. They have a lot of good receivers in Detron Lewis, Alex Tores, Tramain Swindall, along with others who can catch the ball. They have very good ball distribution. If you watch their tape and look at their statistics, they have thrown passes to a lot of people and spread it out very, very well. They run the ball well. That is something that is not thought of when you think of Texas Tech's offense, but they do run the ball well, if you give them the opportunity. Baron Batch is just a very, very good running back. He is strong, powerful and quick, and also has a couple guys behind him who are pretty good as well. They are a team that is known to put up big numbers. They have had some ups and downs this season, but who hasn't in the Big 12? Probably Texas is the only team that has not. We are looking forward to getting down to Lubbock. We need to get back on the winning track and we are looking forward to it."

On Texas Tech's defensive strategy this season:

"One of the things that Tech has done on defense, that as you coach you kind of admire, is they are not real fancy. They play some basic coverages and fronts, but they do an excellent job of teaching fundamental play. Their kids are seldom out of place. Their secondary does a good job of keeping the ball in front of them. They have always played the run relatively well. It is kind of a situation where I think they took command of the game against K-State, which probably was a major factor. Texas A&M came in with a good game plan and did run the ball well, but Tech traditionally plays the run well. They have a philosophy where they keep it pretty simple and let their kids play. They look for execution and don't try to fool you. I think Ruffin McNeil has done a great job there with the defense. His work is often overlooked because their offense is so potent."

On the parity in the Big 12 this season:

"Every season takes on its own character. I think the league is getting better. Some people see this parity as a sign of weakness, but I see it as a sign of strength. I think teams are improving. Good teams are still good, average teams have gotten better. There is not a team in the league that you can just show up and say ‘oh there is a pretty good chance we will win this game if we show up and just don't screw up too badly'. It is really a dog fight every week, which I see as a strength. Some folks may not see it that way, but that is the way I see it."

On KU's slow starts offensively:

"We are doing everything we can to prevent it. We have studied this thing inside and out. We just have to make plays early in the game. There is no reason for making as many mistakes as we have early in the last couple ball games. One of the guys who has made some of the mistakes is one of the most reliable guys on our team, so it is hard to figure out. I have faith in him. I am not going to make any drastic changes in anything that we do. Our offense has proven in that last couple years that they can play well, they can put up numbers and win a lot of games. We have just hit a couple of rough spots is the way I see it. You have to have confidence in your players and I really do. I believe in our kids. I believe that those mistakes are correctable and we will get them corrected. But, it is nothing to panic about. They players understand and the coaches understand that we need to get it changed and just be sharper."

On the importance of turnover margins in a game:

"I don't know if it is the biggest stat, but I think it is important. Usually good football teams at the end of the year have a pretty good turnover margin ratio. That is not always the case. There have been some teams that have been sloppy with the ball and still had big years. But, there is usually a correlation between give-a-ways, take-a-ways and where you end up at the end of the year. You are talking about a dramatic change of field position. It [bad field position] is hard for any defense to overcome and any offense that gets a chance to get a turnover, especially down in the opponent's end of the field, is a chance to get points on the board quickly."

On Jacob Branstetter's career-long kicks this season:

"I have always had confidence in him. I am not going to budge in that I think his range, when there is no wind factor, is around 48-49 yards. But, when you have a 15-mile per hour gust of wind behind you, I will give him another 10 yards, which he proved he could do that. I am not going to say that I was on the sidelines saying ‘well here is three easy points, let's get inside' but he is fairly accurate if he can get the help. There was stiff wind behind him. I knew that if he hit it accurately, he would have enough on it, because he does have a strong enough leg to get it up in the air and with the wind, I thought he had a chance. Did I think he would get it? I don't know, but I figured it was worth a shot because we had nothing to lose. We had the clock run down to about two seconds, so we thought ‘hey, lets give him a shot'. And it worked out."

On the performance of the young players on defense:

"I am really encouraged by what I see on defense. We had some young kids that we had to bring along, who were not ready at the beginning of the year. We had some upperclassmen that we were counting on to be full-time players. Now, what we are finding is that maybe a couple of those upperclassmen are maybe more effective as part-time players. It is a combination of less reps, less thinking, more playing, not putting them in tough spots and not making things too difficult for them. These young kids are really coming along. I am really pleased with what I see, but we still need our veteran guys to play. We still need to get 25-30 snaps a game out of those guys. We will be tested this week. This will be a good test for our defense on how to play the ball and how to compete one-on-one with guys. I think it will be good for them."

"I think the young guys are really talented young guys, who are playing early in their careers, where we would have liked to bring them along a little later, but did not have that choice. There are things that they do not know, but they are really playing hard and really playing smart football. What we are asking them to do, they are able to do. I think they are hard-nosed kids. They are tackling people, they are getting them on the ground and they are playing their assignments well. It is not perfect. We have some busts out there, but that is going to happen. I mean, we have had busts with veteran players. I think what they have done is pushed the veteran guys a little bit. I think some of those guys [the veterans] have caught on that the young guys will knock them off the field if they don't pick it up and get going. So, I think we are getting better with the veteran guys, but in some areas, they have not stepped up in the way we would have liked at this point and the young kids are ready to play. And you know my philosophy: the best players go on the field, whether you are a true freshman or a fifth-year senior."

Senior Quarterback Todd Reesing

On Texas Tech's defense:

"They have continually improved over the years. It's a team that's got a lot of talent and a lot of athleticism on the defensive side of the ball. They keep a more simple outlook, but at the same time, you never know what they're going to do. You never know how they're going to come out and play us. We have to get ready for it. We had some trouble against them last year, it wasn't our best game. I'm sure they're looking to build on that. This is a rebound game for both teams, so I think there's going to be a lot of focus and hard work this week getting ready for Saturday."

On feeling a sense of urgency:

"We know we need to get this thing back on the right track and we need to do it in a hurry. I think this week is very important for us to come out and try and get better and have a great week of practice and see if we can't bounce back on Saturday. With the group of seniors that we have, we're not going to give up. We're going to come out and work even harder and we're going to get this team going in the right direction."

On forgetting about bad offensive games:

"You can't let one game affect your mindset. This is the world of sports, you can't go out and put up big numbers and score a lot of points every week. You have to realize that you have to bounce back from tough games. We're still a talented football team. On offense, we still have a lot of guys who are great playmakers. We're not going to let one bad game set us back. All the guys have all the confidence in the world. We're not going to change that and we're not going to lose that confidence or that swagger. We're just going to rebound. We're going to bounce back and go back to work."

Senior Running Back Jake Sharp

On how to improve the run game:

"I think we just need to keep getting fundamentally better. There are things that we're doing in practice and maybe we're not converting it on the field as far as what our coaches want. I think it's just as simple as having the attitude that we need to go out ready to play at the start of the game and get the offense established early. Once the running game gets established, then the passing game opens up and that gets things rolling for us."

On feeling a sense of urgency this week:

"Every week there's a sense of urgency. We want to win every game, there's no question. Anytime you go on the road in the Big 12, it's not going to be easy. It's going to be a tough venue to play at. We definitely have a strong sense of urgency to get things back on track."

Sophomore Cornerback Daymond Patterson

On seeing improvement in the defense the last two weeks:

"I think we really have seen improvement in the defense. I think we get to the ball a lot faster. I think more people are filling their right gaps and making more plays on the ball. I think we still have a ways to go but we are going in the right direction."

On facing Texas Tech's offense:

"Being a defensive back, you really have to be excited to face Texas Tech's offense because you know they are going to throw the ball so much. You know you're not going to have to come up as much for the run. You know you're going to get a lot of chances to get your hands on the ball and make plays out there, so it really is exciting to play them."

On slowing Texas Tech down:

"Of course when you throw the ball like Texas Tech, you're going to complete passes and get yards. The biggest key is to just make sure that you are assignment sound and just know what you're seeing out there. One play, if there is a missed assignment, there could be a receiver running down the field and that's six points. That can be prevented by just making sure you're communicating with each other."

Kansas vs. Texas Tech Matchup Breakdown

Denverjhawk — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:00:28 -0000

Why Kansas?	Edge	Scenario	Edge	Why Tech?
I'm at a bit of a loss on this one. Kansas is one of the top ranked offenses in the country but the last few weeks have held some struggles for the unit. Kansas needs to avoid mistakes early so they aren't forced to abandon the run. From there take a little hint from A&M and commit to the run. In the passing game Briscoe and Meier are studs but it's time guys like McDougald, Biere and Wilson see more balls. Balance is the key to keeping teams off guard. It's almost as if the Jayhawks have become to predictable. One other thing, if the other team wants to throw an giant umbrella out there against this tough recieving corps, check down to the running backs. They've been open regularly.	Edge Still goes to the Jayhawks here but after the last two weeks it's by an ever slimming margin. Todd and the O have earned the benefit of the doubt due to past success, let's just get this thing back on track so doubt doesn't continue to trickle into the picture.	KU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense		Texas Tech is a middle of the pack defense after some key losses from last season. However if they can force some mistakes and make Kansas one dimensional it becomes a different game. The blueprint is out there on how to stop this Jayhawk attack, it's just a matter of executing and capitalizing on any miscues.
The changes from a few weeks back look to be upgrades. John Williams is solid up front, Justin Springer and Huldon Tharp look to be the best linebacking combo Kansas has fielded this year. Finally, Lubbock Smith, Ryan Murphy and even DJ Beshears despite his struggles have looked very good at times. Throw into the mix a rejuvinated Darrell Stuckey and this defense has been respectable since Iowa State and had Kansas been firing on all cylinders was likely good enough to beat Oklahoma. The Kansas defense needs the offense to put the team ahead and let the Jayhawks tee off, mix things up and try and force more mistakes by the Raiders, beyond that...bend but don't break whenever possible.		KU Defense vs. Texas Tech Offense		Believe it. Once again Mike Leach has the top passing team in the nation. The only tricky thing is their running game has struggled and their most efficient quarterback in this years musical chairs is out. Take advantage of a youthful Kansas secondary and put them on their heels and Tech's wild ride, shootout style could make for some serious problems for the Jayahwks.
Allright, Kansas needs to keep McDougald as the kick return man, find a way to get Daymond Patterson better blocking and special teams might be moving in the right direction. I mean hell Jacob Branstetter bombed one in and Alonso Rojas is still our punter extraordinaire. All Kansas needs to do is play with a little more fire and be a little less timid on the special teams units and this might one day be a strength again.		Special Teams	I'll give Tech the edge because they have a solid return game and the last thing Kansas can afford to do is give Tech a short field.	Exploit the Kansas kick coverage and make Jacob Branstetter show why he's the best tackling kicker in the country. Other than that, Mike Leach doesn't believe in field goals does he? Still the Tech special teams unit can win field position with their return game and coverage.
Kansas coaching staff will come up with a gameplan of their own and I'm still confident in the group. If it's me though, I'm going to commit to the run, keep things simple on offense and find ways to spread things around more. On defense, channel whatever you did against Oklahoma in the first half and things will look allright. Mix it up, disguise coverages and blitzes and make it difficult on whoever lines up behind center for the Red Raiders.	I say push on this one but let's be completely honest that the Jayhawk staff as got to find a way to get things back on track. Like the offense they've earned a little bit of goodwill, but it's time to earn some money again.	Coaching		Tech's coaches need to find a way to get the run defense back under control. Find a way to plug and play yet another quarterback in the offense, and put Kansas behind early. Leach is a mad genius and he certainly didn't disappoint last year in Lawrence. Can he do the same?

It's tough to look at this one and say Kansas has a chance. At the same time, isn't it tough to look at this one and say they don't? Kansas and Tech have been all over the board this year in terms of how they've played and the state of the team. Kansas is coming off two weeks with losses to Colorado and OU where they hurt themselves to the point of putting themselves out of the game.

Things at Tech were looking up after throttling Kansas State and beating Nebraska behind an impressive defensive performance. Then lowly Texas A&M came to town and ran up and down the field to the tune of 50+.

So who wins this thing? In Lubbock with the offense the Raiders put on the field they'd look to have a decided edge. At the same time the Kansas defense is playing better now and at some point this offense has to get back on track, right?

With all the uncertainty I think it's safe to say this one comes down to coaching. Which coach has his team more prepared, refocused and ready to go. The great thing about football is there's always next week, well next week is here Kansas fans and the North is still there for the taking.