SB Nation - Ulla Pomele

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Nebraska

BracketCat — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:15:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5 | 4-3) VS. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3 | 4-2)

The Big 12 North Championship
Nebraska Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, Neb.
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009 - 6:45 PM CST

ESPN

After 11 weeks of strife and struggle, it comes down to this: One game separates us from either glory or disappointment.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Corn Nation.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (89 of 144, 970 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (51 catches, 657 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (228 carries, 1,166 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Josh Cherry (11 of 17 FG made)

Passing
Zac Lee (136 of 227, 1,692 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Niles Paul (29 catches, 567 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Roy Helu Jr. (167 carries, 962 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Ndamukong Suh (56 tackles, 13 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (31 | -8) > NU (57)

Passing Offense
NU (82) > K-State (105 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (75 | +3) > NU (77)

Scoring Offense
NU (68) > K-State (75 | -6)

Rushing Defense
NU (11) > K-State (23 | -3)

Pass Efficiency Defense
NU (3) > K-State (75 | -15)

Total Defense
NU (10) > K-State (47 | -4)

Scoring Defense
NU (3) > K-State (59 | -14)

Net Punting
K-State (73 | +4) > NU (100)

Punt Returns
NU (40) > K-State (47 | -3)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (6 | -2) > NU (44)

Turnover Margin
K-State (19 | -13) > NU (59)

Pass Defense
NU (26) > K-State (90 | -7)

Passing Efficiency
NU (68) > K-State (78 | -2)

Analysis

There's no shading the fact that the numbers really don't favor us in this matchup — especially in light of the Wildcats' poor performance last Saturday.

To secure a win, K-State will have to press its advantage in a few key areas: rushing offense (against the No. 3 rushing defense in the country, though), total offense (our record is pretty clear — when we don't score 20, we don't win, with KU being the rare exception), net punting (don't be afraid to play the field-position game), kickoff returns (we've got to spring Brandon Banks loose at least once, because against that defense, good field position will be critical to scoring points), and turnover margin (simply put, we cannot turn it over like we did last week — duh).

So as I see it, the recipe for victory is no turnovers, finding a way to score by opening up the playbook and creating plays on special teams. Oh, yeah, did I mention don't turn it over?

I'm going to go ahead and join the rest of the nation in predicting a comfortable Nebraska win, in order to reclaim some of that reverse-jinx magic I had earlier in the season. We'll need all the help we can get, unfortunately.

At this point, though, I really don't care if we win or lose. Either way, it has been a successful season. I just want to see this team leave nothing on the field. This could be the end of their season — I want to see them play like it. And if Nebraska is to win, I want them to know they were in a dogfight first.

Prediction: Nebraska 21, Kansas State 8 (that's a safety and two field goals, BTW)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

The weekend kicked off in weird fashion with a turnover-plagued and mistake-filled exhibition of crap last night on ESPN, as Oklahoma State disinterestedly survived Colorado 31-28 at home.

Look for more of the same this weekend, as ours is the only game of real consequence.

Oklahoma and Texas Tech are playing for bowl position, and I'm not sure that will be enough for the normally mighty Sooners to avoid being upset in a city they have lost in before.

Iowa State at Missouri and Kansas at Texas both figure to be ho-hum wins by probably the most talented teams in their respective divisions.

That leaves Baylor at Texas A&M, the battle for the Big 12 South basement. Oh, yeah, give me some of that.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 20, Sooners 19

Iowa State at Missouri
Tigers 31, Cyclones 22

Baylor at Texas A&M
Aggies 31, Bears 27

Kansas at #3 Texas (ABC)
Longhorns 29, Jayhawks 6

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Missouri

BracketCat — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 07:30:13 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-4 | 4-2) VS. Missouri Tigers (5-4 | 1-4)

Senior Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock M Nation — unofficial second home of the temporarily suspended Unholy Alliance.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (68 of 114, 731 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (43 catches, 529 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (205 carries, 1,087 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (51 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 2 FR)

Passing
Blaine Gabbert (181 of 314, 2,364 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Danario Alexander (71 catches, 1,038 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Derrick Washington (140 carries, 562 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Sean Weatherspoon (84 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (23 | +9) > MU (102)

Passing Offense
MU (21) > K-State (106 | -4)

Total Offense
MU (56) > K-State (78 | -3)

Scoring Offense
MU (57) > K-State (69 | -11)

Rushing Defense
MU (17) > K-State (20 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (60 | +3) > MU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (43) > MU (45)

Scoring Defense
K-State (45 | +14) > MU (63)

Net Punting
MU (7) > K-State (77 | +10)

Punt Returns
K-State (44 | -1) > MU (49)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > MU (103)

Turnover Margin
K-State (6 | +8) > MU (69)

Pass Defense
K-State (83 | -2) > MU (89)

Passing Efficiency
MU (49) > K-State (76 | -6)

Analysis

Second verse, same as the first. If you covered up the numbers and just listed them as "Team A" and "Team B," you would see very little statistical difference between Kansas and Missouri. They're both spread teams who are good at passing the ball and defending the pass (likely because they see it every day in practice), but they both also suck at running the ball or stopping the run.

And just like last week, I say to throw out the stats. I think Mizzou will come in with their backs against the wall and give us everything we want in the first half. Blaine Gabbert isn't nearly as turnover-prone as Todd Reesing, so we're going to have to win this the old-fashioned way: D-Train left, D-Train right, D-Train up the middle.

One thing's for sure: If we lead at halftime, it's over. Missouri hasn't scored a TD in the second half of any of its conference games and Bill Snyder has a prodigious record when leading at the half, especially at home.

Furthermore, Bill Snyder is undefeated against Missouri at home in November and undefeated against Gary Pinkel. Things are unraveling in Columbia, and I don't think this is the best place for them to try and put it all back together.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Missouri 25

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

We're keeping it all in the divisions this week, and the pecking order in both the North and the South should become a lot clearer after Saturday's games.

In general, I like the home teams, except in the case of rapidly fading Kansas and outmatched Baylor. Whaddaya know? The two traditional Big 12 bottom-feeders, unable to defend their home turf? Just like old times, says I.

#2 Texas at Baylor (FSN)
Longhorns 28, Bears 10

Colorado at Iowa State
Cyclones 35, Buffaloes 28

Nebraska at Kansas (ABC)
Cornhuskers 25, Jayhawks 22

Texas A&M at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 28, Aggies 18

Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Cowboys 22, Red Raiders 16

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

---

Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Kansas

BracketCat — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:00:24 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 | 3-2) VS. Kansas Jayhawks (5-3 | 1-3)

The Sunflower Showdown
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock Chalk Talk — but I don't recommend it. They have diseases over there.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (61 of 98, 665 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (42 catches, 524 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (181 carries, 902 yards, 10 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (29 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 2 FF, 2 FR)

Passing
Todd Reesing (205 of 320, 2,385 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Kerry Meier (65 catches, 666 yards, 6 TD)

Rushing
Toben Opurum (114 carries, 491 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Dezmon Briscoe (54 catches, 841 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (32 | -7) > KU (76)

Passing Offense
KU (7) > K-State (102 | +2)

Total Offense
KU (11) > K-State (75 | -1)

Scoring Offense
KU (19) > K-State (58 | +6)

Rushing Defense
KU (14) > K-State (24 | -5)

Pass Efficiency Defense
KU (56) > K-State (63 | -12)

Total Defense
K-State (43 | -4) > KU (47)

Scoring Defense
K-State (59 | -13) > KU (71)

Net Punting
KU (85) > K-State (87 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (43 | -1) > KU (85)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5) > KU (87)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14) > KU (57)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -7) > KU (100)

Passing Efficiency
KU (35) > K-State (70 | -3)

Analysis

See all those pretty numbers above? This may be the only time you hear this from a stats guy like me, so enjoy it:

Throw 'em out the window. They don't mean jack.

Nothing would surprise me in this game. Not another 12-3 slugfest, not K-State passing for 300 yards, not Sharp rumbling for 200 again (well, that would be a little surprising).

Both teams want this one and it will be a war. Mark that down.

I will say this: KU, like OU, is rated ahead of us in most categories, which you should take with a grain of salt because of the weak non-conference competition. As the Jayhawks get further into the conference season, those numbers have continued to plummet.

But unlike OU, KU is worse than K-State in four key areas, by a significant margin: total defense, scoring defense, punt returns and pass defense. And we're at home, in front of a near-sellout crowd, with a legend on the sidelines. I'm just sayin'...

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Kansas 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Texas rolls in a laugher and suddenly dominant Texas A&M should cruise in high altitude.

Mizzou will get more fight from the hibernating Bears than they might expect, but that has more to do with Gary Pinkel's crappy halftime adjustments than anything else.

Iowa State is a hot upset pick, but I think T. Boone's boys will get it done. "Win one for the Dezzer!"

And that leaves the rumble in Memorial Stadium. If the over for this game was 400 cumulative yards for both teams, I might be tempted to bet the under. Should be fun.

UCF at #2 Texas (FSN)
Longhorns 33, Golden Knights 7

Texas A&M at Colorado
Aggies 32, Buffaloes 27

Baylor at Missouri
Tigers 34, Bears 23

#18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (ABC)
Cowboys 26, Cyclones 21

#20 Oklahoma at Nebraska (ABC)
Sooners 20, Cornhuskers 19

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Oklahoma

BracketCat — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:45:15 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-3 | 3-1) VS. No. 22 Oklahoma Sooners (4-3 | 2-1)

The Norman Conquest
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Norman, Okla.
Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009 - 6 PM CST

FSN

A tough task awaits this week. By statistical fluke, we actually possess a better overall and Big 12 record than the Oklahoma Sooners, but we're going to have to play a solid — and lucky — game to keep it that way Saturday night.

The Sooners have forced at least two turnovers in each game this season and have forced at least three four times. And Bob Stoops has only lost two home games during his entire tenure at OU — and neither of them were to North teams.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Crimson And Cream Machine.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (42 of 68, 491 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (33 catches, 368 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (165 carries, 814 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (41 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 INT, 1 FR)

Passing
Landry Jones (117 of 192, 1,363 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Broyles (36 catches, 500 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Chris Brown (105 carries, 427 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
DeMarco Murray (84 catches, 403 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (25 | +8) > OU (65)

Passing Offense
OU (20) > K-State (104 | -9)

Total Offense
OU (29) > K-State (74 | -5)

Scoring Offense
OU (24) > K-State (64 | -6)

Rushing Defense
OU (3) > K-State (19 | +7)

Pass Efficiency Defense
OU (12) > K-State (51 | +17)

Total Defense
OU (6) > K-State (39 | +8)

Scoring Defense
OU (2) > K-State (46 | +17)

Net Punting
OU (24) > K-State (92 | -3)

Punt Returns
OU (13) > K-State (42 | -11)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +2) > OU (76)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14 | +10) > OU (26)

Pass Defense
OU (36) > K-State (74 | +7)

Passing Efficiency
OU (40) > K-State (67 | -12)

Analysis

Well, as much as I hate to admit it, Oklahoma clearly outclasses us in most categories, despite not being a particularly impressive team on offense or special teams. Our one distinct advantage is in running the ball, something the Sooners seemed to have abandoned trying altogether. Unfortunately, it will be strength against strength, because Daniel Thomas will have to run straight into the teeth of the Oklahoma run defense, led by Gerald McCoy.

On offense, Oklahoma isn't particularly proficient at passing, either, but they're passably decent and Ryan Broyles is a deadly threat every time he catches the ball, just like Brandon Banks. I think our secondary will do a decent job on them, but Landry Jones is a pretty decent quarterback — he just has crappy receivers who can't catch the ball. If our offense doesn't do its part to keep theirs off the field, it will end up being a long day, most likely.

That leaves the onus on special teams. We absolutely have to break a big play for a touchdown, and maybe two — whether on kick returns, punt returns or punt blocks. I don't see any other way to keep up with OU's offense given our own ineptitude in the passing game of late.

As usual, field position and turnovers will be key, because we will need to play the same keep-away game we've honed all season. I'm worried, since Oklahoma has a significant advantage in both net punting and punt returns, and isn't far behind us in turnover margin.

On paper, this is the second-worst matchup of the season. But games aren't played on paper. I'm optimistic enough to say the Cats will play well enough defensively, in what should be a fairly defensive game, to beat the 25-point spread.

Beating the Sooners, on the other hand, is a trickier proposition. It will require turnovers, big plays from Brandon Banks, some big-time open-field runs from Daniel Thomas and a superb passing day from Grant Gregory, as well as a ton of luck. I just don't see it happening.

As usual, we will need to score at least 20 points to secure the win, as we have done in all five previous victories. But that might not even be enough to escape Norman with a W.

Prediction: Oklahoma 29, Kansas State 17

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Nothing has been as predicted this season, so while I am sure everyone expects Nebraska to get out of Waco with a win while scoring only 10 points, I'm going to go ahead and say it will be more of a shootout than that. It's just been that kind of year.

Likewise, everyone thinks Kansas at Texas Tech will be a shootout... so I'm expecting a defensive struggle.

I think Mizzou and Texas A&M barely will squeak out wins, but would either Colorado or Iowa State winning surprise you all that much?

And in the big game, I expect Texas to survive their biggest challenge after learning from last year's debacle in Lubbock. Oklahoma State has lost too many pieces they expected to have to pull this off.

Nebraska at Baylor (Versus)
Huskers 30, Bears 25

Missouri at Colorado (FSN)
Tigers 30, Buffaloes 28

Kansas at Texas Tech (ABC)
Red Raiders 25, Jayhawks 21

Iowa State at Texas A&M
Aggies 27, Cyclones 26

#3 Texas at #13 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Longhorns 17, Cowboys 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Colorado

BracketCat — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:00:19 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (4-3 | 2-1) VS. Colorado Buffaloes (2-4 | 1-1)

Homecoming
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

FCS

Flush off an upset victory over the overrated Kansas Jayhawks, the Buffaloes storm into town looking to tie us for first place in the Big 12 North.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see The Ralphie Report.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (33 of 50, 411 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (30 catches, 354 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (145 carries, 669 yards, 8 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (22 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR, 2 FF)

Passing
Tyler Hansen (17 of 30, 192 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Scotty McKnight (35 catches, 370 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Rodney Stewart (104 carries, 418 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Riar Geer (25 catches, 284 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (33 | +5) > CU (108)

Passing Offense
CU (61) > K-State (95 | -4)

Total Offense
K-State (69 | +6) > CU (103)

Scoring Offense
K-State (58 | +41) > CU (78)

Rushing Defense
K-State (26 | +24) > CU (66)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (68 | +16) > CU (102)

Total Defense
K-State (47 | +6) > CU (96)

Scoring Defense
K-State (63 | +3) > CU (100)

Net Punting
K-State (89 | +3) > CU (114)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | -3) > CU (107)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (7 | +16) > CU (26)

Turnover Margin
K-State (24 | +37) > CU (77)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -16) > CU (105)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (55 | +16) > CU (109)

Analysis

Last week, there was a whole lotta red. This week, it's all about the green, baby.

On paper, we should dominate Colorado. Yes, their performance last week was impressive from an emotional standpoint, but as Kevin Romary once said, by this time in the season, "ya are who ya are."

Colorado still can't run the ball with any consistency (108th in the nation). A quarterback change won't help that much — that problem is on the offensive line.

Tyler Hansen also will be hard-pressed to raise the Buffaloes' overall offensive numbers (103rd in the country), despite bringing more of a run threat to the table. That's because the Buffs still have the weakest set of wide receivers in the Big 12.

On defense, Colorado truly struggles to cover the pass (102nd in pass efficiency defense), which is instant death in most Big 12 games. Not so much against us, but something tells me Grant Gregory should have a solid outing regardless. Yes, Colorado generated pressure on Kansas for the first time all season, but I still think that was more about the Jayhawks' crappy interior OL than it was about Colorado's DL. Plus, Colorado has one of the least talented and least disciplined secondaries in the country — which you saw if you watched the second half, when Reesing lobbed jump ball after jump ball against them for huge gains.

Colorado's overall scoring defense isn't much better (100th).

In the field position, we also have a huge advantage, and it's not just because of Brandon Banks. At 114th in the nation, Colorado is the first team we have played all year that is worse than us in net punting. I didn't think that was possible, even though we have made incremental improvements each week.

On the flip side, the Buffaloes are 107th in punt returns. We could be playing a lot on the opponent's side of the 50 for the second straight week.

Finally, to complete the ignominy, Colorado is 105th in passing defense and 109th in passing efficiency.

Look, I know Buff fans are all excited about Hansen, and rightfully so, but Cody Hawkins didn't punt or play defense. Colorado is 2-4 for a reason, and I haven't seen that many sub-100 statistics since ... well, Ron Prince's team last year. But even Prince's teams were better on offense than Colorado has been.

Don't read too much into the rushing defense performances against Texas and Kansas, either. Both teams look to throw first, throw second and then maybe run third. Both got behind early and threw to catch up. Both have suffered injuries to their starting running backs this season, and Texas had an injured backup, too. Neither team has Daniel Thomas.

The more I examine this matchup, the harder it is for me to envision Colorado winning. Hell, the one category the Buffs outclass us in — passing offense (they are 61st; we're 95th) — isn't even really an advantage, because they chose to make themselves a one-dimensional passing team and ride Cody Hawkins' arm, for some reason. Passing offense measures pure yardage, but a much better measure of pure passing power is passing efficiency, or yards per throw/catch. We're 55th and they're 109th. Gregory is the most efficient quarterback in Big 12 play so far.

And I haven't even talked about intangibles yet. We're 3-0 at home (and should have at least 45,000 fans there tomorrow), 2-0 in day games and 2-0 on FCS (not that that really means anything). And we have the best coach in America.

I'm not trying to slight Buffs. To pull off the win last week like they did and give themselves even a shred of hope after the terrible start they endured is impressive and commendable. But they're still not a great team. We're not a great team, either, but even through our early struggles we have looked better in all phases of the game than Colorado has. We're better coached, have better athletes across the board and are playing at home. There is no excuse to lose this game, and if we do, our season pretty much is over.

Key stats to watch for: We need to jump on them early and score at least three touchdowns in the game. K-State is 3-0 when leading after halftime (and 3-0 when leading after the third quarter) and 4-0 when scoring 20 or more points. Stifling the Buffs on defense will help, too; we're 2-0 when allowing 10 points or less (and 74-0 since 1990). Most important, we must protect the ball (duh). K-State is 2-0 when we don't turn it over.

Factor in that we have yet to run back a punt or block a punt and probably are due, and I think it could end up being a long day for the Buffs if all goes well.

Like I said, on paper, we should win. But games aren't played on paper. That 11:30 a.m. start continues to worry me, as does our inconsistency this season. But the Buffaloes' upset of Kansas had to be emotionally draining, and this will be a taxing road trip for them. At some point, you just gotta have faith in Bill Snyder. I'm picking it close, but if we turned the corner I think we did last week, it could end up ugly.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, Colorado 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Oklahoma State won in College Station, so they shouldn't have too many problems in Waco, either.

I know Nebraska is having an identity crisis right now, but Memorial Stadium is an exceedingly tough place to play (and coach). I suspect Iowa State used up all of its good luck karma against KU and K-State, and still didn't get the job done. The Huskers will get right tomorrow.

I know I said yesterday that OU will win, and I still believe that to be the case. But this is the first of OU's challenging "L" games (Lawrence, Lubbock, Lincoln), and I just can't shake that ugly feeling I had in 2007 that KU might find a way to win. At any rate, I'm picking the Hawks solely to jinx them, so don't read too much into it.

Everyone is predicting a huge blowout in Lubbock, but wouldn't it just be like the Aggies to find a way to win that game? I don't think they will, but if they have any pride left, it might be closer than most think.

Longhorns will get it done. I'm not impressed by Missouri at all and I'm starting to think they actually might have the worst coach in the North, not Colorado. Yeeouch.

#14 Oklahoma State at Baylor (Versus)
Cowboys 29, Bears 23

Iowa State at Nebraska (FSN)
Cornhuskers 30, Cyclones 16

#25 Oklahoma at #24 Kansas (ABC)
Jayhawks 22, Sooners 21

Texas A&M at #21 Texas Tech
Red Raiders 35, Aggies 15

#3 Texas at Missouri (ABC)
Longhorns 23, Tigers 14

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KICKING THE TIRES: Texas Tech University

BracketCat — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:01:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (3-2 | 1-0) AT Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2 | 0-1)

The Likely Loss in Lubbock
Jones AT&T Stadium - Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FSN

Arr, mateys. Click the jump for a scurvy preview of Capt. Leach's scalawags.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (18 of 29, 227 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 carries, 121 yards, 2 TD)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (23 catches, 289 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (116 carries, 529 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Brandon Harold* (45 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FF)

*2008 stats

TTU

Passing
Steven Sheffield (20 of 29, 290 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Alex Torres (29 catches, 301 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Baron Batch (44 carries, 226 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Lyle Leong (22 catches, 281 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (36 | -4) > TTU (120)

Passing Offense
TTU (2) > K-State (90 | +1)

Total Offense
TTU (8) > K-State (63 | -8)

Scoring Offense
TTU (11) > K-State (87)

Rushing Defense
TTU (28) > K-State (38 | -21)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (22 | -2) > TTU (48)

Total Defense
K-State (16 | -6) > TTU (69)

Scoring Defense
K-State (29 | -3) > TTU (51)

Net Punting
TTU (62) > K-State (101 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | +5) > TTU (43)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > TTU (23)

Turnover Margin
K-State (61 | -5) > TTU (100)

Pass Defense
K-State (7 | +6) > TTU (99)

Passing Efficiency
TTU (27) > K-State (71 | +16)

Analysis

I'll keep this simple: Texas Tech loves to pass the ball and really sucks at running it. They also turn it over a lot.

This would seem to favor us, because we have a really good passing defense, but we also haven't truly been tested downfield by anyone yet. And our rushing defense got exposed a little last week, too, so that remains an area of concern. Our lack of a pass rush also is a major concern.

We have sucked at passing, but might get a lot better now that Grant Gregory is starting. We are good at running the ball, but Tech is really good at stopping the run too. Our chief advantage is in the return game.

What does it all mean? I have no earthly idea. On paper, we should get killed by the talent mismatch, but Tech is breaking in a new starting QB for the first time in the Mike Leach era and also might not take us as seriously as it should. We are, after all, slightly better than the 0-5 New Mexico team that gave the Red Raiders fits last week.

I think the game will be closer than the experts think, but we just won't generate enough of a pass rush to pressure Sheffield — even if Brandon Harold starts, as is rumored.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 22

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

As I write this, Nebraska just pulled off a stunning comeback that clearly anoints them as the front-runner in the North. With games against Oklahoma State and Texas next, Missouri is in serious danger of an 0-3 start.

Oklahoma State is depleted, yes, but Texas A&M is just terrible. The Cowboys should be able to escape College Station with a win.

Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all are served sacrificial lambs on a platter this week. Hell, our game might end up being one of the more competitive. It's too bad that the Big Ten and SEC showdowns aren't paralleled by great games in the Big 12 on Saturday. Hell, we moved our best game to a Thursday. Brilliant.

#15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (FSN)
Cowboys 25, Aggies 23

Iowa State at #16 Kansas (Versus)
Jayhawks 33, Cyclones 17

Baylor at #19 Oklahoma (ABC)
Sooners 27, Bears 15

Colorado at #2 Texas (ESPN)
Longhorns 33, Buffaloes 11

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Position Matchups :: Kansas St. Wildcats Edition

Seth C — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

Texas Tech Passing Offense vs. Kansas St. Passing Defense

Texas Tech Pass Offense: This is going to be a bit tricky for Texas Tech. As much as everyone loves the backup quarterback, QB Steven Sheffield certainly has his deficiencies. He doesn't have the arm that Taylor Potts possesses, but I think the offense is in fine hands with Sheffield. What Sheffield does bring to the game is more mobility and because he doesn't have the big arm, he's going to rely on the short quick passing game, which if it looks anything like it did last week, then you can expect to see quite a bit more of Harrison Jeffers catching passes out of the backfield. Right now, it's a grab-bag of receivers and I think this is going to be what you see week-in and week-out. Someone is going to have a big day, whether it's Tramain Swindall, Lyle Leong, Alexander Torres, or Detron Lewis. And that's the rub, there is no Michael Crabtree drawing a double-team every play and these receivers need to work their tails off to get open each and every play. The fact that the offensive line will have Brandon Carter back is significant for this group. Although the line stumbled last week against New Mexico, giving up 5 sacks for 54 yards. That's uncharacteristic of this group, but that's the sort of thing that happens when an offensive line coach is trying to fill gaps on the line.

Kansas St. Pass Defense: The Wildcats have the 7th best passing defense in the nation, but this is a tad bit decieving. First, anytime you're in the top 10 of anything and the college football season is 5 games deep, there is something there, but in the case of Kansas St., of their 5 opponents they're not exactly throwing the ball around. UMass is 22nd in FBS, La-Lafayette is 74th, UCLA is 102nd, Tennessee Tech is 83rd and Iowa St. is 106th. Kansas St. hasn't quite played a true passing team so it will be interesting to see how the Wildcats hold up. K-State is led by SS Tysyn Hartman, who seems to do just about everything, but he's leading his team with 26 tackles, 3 interceptions and 4 pass break-ups. CB Joshua Moore is 4th on the team with 22 tackles, 1 interception and 3 PBU. The rest of the secondary is rounded out by CB David Garrett and FS Emmanuel Lamur. I mentioned the other day that K-State is having a tough time getting to the quarterback and thus far, the entire team has only managed 4 sacks for the year. I would imagine that K-State is going to do something to change that this weekend, or Sheffield is going to have plenty of time competing passes.

Advantage: K-State's been good thus far, but I'll put my money on Texas Tech.

Texas Tech Rushing Offense vs. Kansas St. Rushing Defense

Texas Tech Rush Offense: The rushing offense, despite the 120th ranking is improving. The problem is those pesky sacks getting included in the rushing totals. Last week, Harrison Jeffers (8 : 29 : 3 TD) and Baron Batch (8 : 47 : 1 TD) combined for 16 carries and 76 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's not too bad of production from this group and at the very least, it's better than what it was before where there was literally no production. I'll take 16 carries, although I'm still a proponent of more carries, especially when the running backs are having some success running the ball. Just as there will be an upgrade at right guard with the return of Brandon Carter, you can also expect to see the line struggle a bit with Justin Keown at center, if Byrnes is unable to go. I'm not as worried about Keown in the rushing game as I am in the passing game, but Keown is responsible for making the necessary reads and going into the meat of conference play with a brand new center is tough.

Kansas St. Rush Defense: A surprising (at least for me) 38th in the nation in stopping the run. Thus far, against their opponents, the Wildcats have allowed 110 (UMass); 102 (La.-Lafayette); 173 (UCLA); -19 (Tenn. Tech); and 207 (Iowa St.). Although statistically, K-State is pretty good against the run the numbers don't necessarily bear this out, especially when there are 2 games of over 170 yards. The defensive line and linebacking groups are led mostly by upper-classmen. LB's John Houlik and Ulla Pomele are seniors, while Troy Butler is a junior. DL Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Daniel Calvin and Hansen Sekona are all seniors, while DT Raphael Guidry is a sophomore. I'd like to think that a coach like Bill Snyder is going to try to take advantage of some young personnel along the offensive line and I'll be interested to see what, if anything, KSU does to stop the run against Texas Tech. Right now, the advantage goes to Kansas St.

Advantage: Just based on production alone, this goes to K-State.

Kansas St. Passing Offense vs. Texas Tech Passing Defense

Kansas St. Pass Offense: Some things are going to change with Grant Gregory at quarterback. I recall watching Case Coffman against Texas Tech last year and being relatively impressed, but I think Snyder likes the senior leadership that Gregory brings and it gives Coffman another year to take things in. I don't blame Snyder for wanting to win now and Gregory does seem give K-State a more steady signal-caller, but I do think the passing game takes a bit of a hit. Coffman's biggest problem was that he's already had 4 interceptions in only 95 attempts (that's 1 INT per 23.75 attempts, compared with Potts, who was just awful with 1 INT per 39.16 attempts). In any event, Gregory still seemed to find his play makers last week against Iowa St. in the speedy Brandon Banks (4 : 66 : 1 TD) and Lamark Brown (3 : 66 : 1 TD). Banks (23 : 289 : 2 TD) is clearly the game-breaker of the bunch as the rest of the receiving crew has 160 yards or less, but I think Red Raider fans would be wise to be mindful of TE Jeron Mastrud. Tight ends are something that Texas Tech really hasn't seen thus far this year and it will be interesting to see how that matchup will work.

Texas Tech Pass Defense: CB Jamar Wall and CB LaRon Moore were pretty good last week against New Mexico, enough to earn my defensive co-MVP, but I'm not sure how much these guys will get tested this week. I know what Ruffin is going to do defensively, and it's going to drive me insane, and I know that it should work against a quarterback that's not a game-breaker with his arm. That's not to say that Gregory can't beat a team, but Ruffin's going to make damn sure that doesn't happen. I'm not sure what McNeill is going to do at safety, but if neither Cody Davis or Franklin Mitchem are ready to play, I think you'll see a steady diet of Brett Dewhurst, Brent Nickerson and Will Ford willing in the safety positions. Julius Howard, despite being promoted to 2nd team linebacker with Blake Collier taking a leave of absense, could see a number of different positions on Saturday. The one thing I'd like to see the defensive line do this week is work on containment when K-State's Gregory goes back to pass.

Advantage: Push. Both have struggled to either really stop anyone or gain some yards through the air.

Kansas St. Rushing Offense vs. Texas Tech Rushing Defense

Kansas St. Rush Offense: The backbone of the K-State team is their rushing offense. Led by RB Daniel Thomas, who sits at 16th in the nation with 105.8 yards a game and 4 touchdowns. Add to that dual-threat QB Gregory and you've got me worried. Again, Gregory only had 29 yards last week against Iowa St., but from what I've read about Gregory, he's an athletic quarterback that can run if he wants. Behind that rushing attack is solid mix along the offensive line. The left side is led by LT Nick Stringer, a senior, and LG Zach Kendall a junior. The right side of the line has two sophomores leading the way, Colten Freeze and Clyde Aufner while C Wade Weibert rounds out the rest of the line. To speak a bit to K-State's efficiency in running the ball, Daniel Thomas has only had 19 lost rushing yards in 116 carries. When K-State gets a push, they move forward.

Texas Tech Rush Defense: Statistically, this group has made the most improvement over the past year and stopping opponents against the run is one of the biggest indicators of a successful team. Last year, the rushing defense was giving up 100.00 yards a game, good for 25th in the nation, against 2 FCS teams and SMU and Nevada. This year, playing against just 1 FCS team and 2 top 20 teams, the Red Raiders sit at 28th in the nation at 105.40 yards a game. I know you're thinking that this is not improvement, but this group has been better and Ruffin McNeill has done a good job of working in plenty of depth, regardless of whether or not he was forced to do it. The linebacker crew continues to play well, but there's room for improvement. I should also say that my favorite trait in watching Daniel Howard play is that he has a motor that just doesn't quit and the more I watch the defense, I keep thinking that the rest of the group has adopted that philosophy in just continuing to work the offense, play after play. Eventually, the offense is going to wear down or make a mistake.

Advantage: Kansas St. is the clear winner here.

Ed. Note: I've been a little busy this week and this is all I had the time to write.

KICKING THE TIRES: Tennessee Technological University

BracketCat — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:00:18 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (1-2) VS. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (1-1; 0-1)

Band Day | Fort Riley Day | University Family Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009 - 1:10 PM CST

no television

Click the jump for a preview of the purple-and-lemon LSU copycats from Cookeville, Tenn.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (47 of 86, 553 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (16 catches, 133 yards)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (65 carries, 294 yards, 2 TD)

Wild Card
Tysyn Hartman (18 tackles, 2 INT, 1 FF)

TTU

Passing
Lee Sweeney (25 of 44, 284 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Tim Benford (7 catches, 116 yards)

Rushing
Tremaine Hudson (23 carries, 134 yards, 1 TD)

Wild Card
Howard Griffin (19 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

I'm adding a new feature this week. Next to each K-State ranking, I have a number either in red or green. Red signals a decrease in the ranking from last week, while green indicates an increase. This way, you can track the relative change in our various statistical categories from week to week.

Rushing Offense
TTU (26*) > K-State (49 | -21)

Passing Offense
TTU (84*) > K-State (87 | -5)

Total Offense
TTU (59*) > K-State (75 | -22)

Scoring Offense
TTU (33*) > K-State (107 | -10)

Rushing Defense
TTU (48*) > K-State (62 | -14)

Pass Efficiency Defense
TTU (8*) > K-State (14 | -4)

Total Defense
TTU (20*) > K-State (29 | -4)

Scoring Defense
TTU (14*) > K-State (43 | +3)

Net Punting
K-State (100 | +3) = TTU (100*)

Punt Returns
TTU (15*) > K-State (45 | -6)

Kickoff Returns
TTU (26*) > K-State (48 | +50)

Turnover Margin
TTU (7*) > K-State (63 | -4)

Pass Defense
TTU (13*) > K-State (22 | +1)

Passing Efficiency
TTU (77*) > K-State (98 | -11)

*FCS rankings

Analysis

Simply put, the UCLA game did nothing good for our offense. We pretty much showed the rest of our hand, and didn't even come up with a pair. We dropped nationally in every single category, and showed the rest of the nation the way to beat us is to stack eight in the box and come with a blitz every down.

Either you stuff Daniel Thomas on the run, or you get Carson Coffman in a hurry and he a) fumbles the ball, b) throws an interception, c) throws a wobbly duck of an incomplete pass, d) takes a sack, e) runs around awkwardly and gains maybe two yards or f) somehow completes a pass for a first down. F is preferred, E is the most realistic outcome we can hope for on any given play, and A, B, C and D are happening way to often.

Defensively, there was one big difference between the first-half performance and all the ugly performances from last year: Somehow, we got it under control and prevented the Bruins from running amok on us in the second half like they did in the first. That's a positive, and a slight increase in pass and scoring defense resulted, but there still were too many Swiss-cheese moments against what has been a paltry UCLA run game.

Furthermore, we made Kevin Craft look like a golden god out there, after he threw a school-record 20 interceptions last season, which is not inspiring, considering we still have to face Oklahoma and Texas Tech this season... not to mention Todd Reesing and Blaine Gabbert. The breakdown on the final touchdown was particularly troubling, since it represented both scheme and execution problems.

One positive is that while the kicking game still sucked - thanks largely to the quintessentially poor holding of Ryan Doerr - one area that I harped on last week improved dramatically: kickoff returns. Now, if only Bill Snyder would start trusting Brandon Banks on punt returns again, we might start to get something going in terms of field position. Of course, the offense probably would just squander it and then we would miss the field goal, so I have hard time getting excited even about that...

Although Tennessee Tech ranks better than us in every category (and even though those are FCS rankings, I bet the hard numbers still are better than ours in most cases), it's important to remember that those numbers were amassed against even poorer FCS competition. In a nutshell: If we lose this one, say hello to a 1-11 season.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, Tennessee Tech 3

BracketCat's Projected Starters

Will this be the first week we start the same offensive line two games in a row? We haven't yet, and it's an understated component of our offensive struggles, IMO.

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Hansen Sekona
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

H: Please, God, anyone but Ryan Doerr
K: Josh Cherry
P: Ryan Doerr
R: Brandon Banks, Tysyn Hartman

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Are you the type of person whose appetite merely was whetted by such scintillating matchups as Tulsa at Oklahoma, Kansas at UTEP, and Houston at Oklahoma State? (OK, that last one probably was a bad example...)

Well, if so, this is your lucky weekend! It's time for the Big 12/Conference USA Showdown! That's right, enjoy the regional fireworks as the Southern Miss Golden Eagles look to knock off the distracted Fightin' Jayhawks and the UTEP Underminers look to topple the Taj Mahaustin. Meanwhile, UAB's scaly, fire-breathing lizards will take on A&M's scaly, homoerotic Aggie Corps, and Texas Tech again will play in the featured nightcap in a tough road environment against a ranked Lone Star State powerhouse. (Just trying to help Okie Lite save some face...)

For the undercard, the other half of the conference will take on typically overmatched FCS opponents. Yay!

#21 Missouri at Nevada (ESPN) (Friday)
Tigers 32, Wolf Pack 19

Southern Miss at #20 Kansas (FSN)
Jayhawks 26, Golden Eagles 20

UTEP at #2 Texas (FSN)
Longhorns 43, Miners 15

UAB at Texas A&M
Aggies 45, Blazers 27

Grambling State at #16 Oklahoma State
Cowboys 46, Tigers 21

Louisiana at #25 Nebraska (FSN PPV)
Cornhuskers 31, Ragin' Cajuns 21

Northwestern State at Baylor
Bears 54, Demons 20

Army at Iowa State
Cyclones 42, Black Knights 30

Texas Tech at #17 Houston (ESPN2)
Cougars 25, Red Raiders 20

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KICKING THE TIRES: The University of California (Los Angeles)

BracketCat — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:00:32 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (1-1) AT UCLA Bruins (2-0)

Rumble in the Rose Bowl
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, Calif.
Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009 - 7:28 PM PST

FSN

Click the jump for a preview of Slick Rick's boys...

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (27 of 52, 360 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (10 catches, 100 yards)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (50 carries, 240 yards, 1 TD)

Wild Card
Jeron Mastrud (6 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD)

UCLA

Passing
Kevin Prince (29 of 52, 277 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Terrence Austin (7 catches, 46 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Johnathan Franklin (29 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD)

Wild Card
Richard Brehaut (2 of 2, 39 yards)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (28) > UCLA (88)

Passing Offense
K-State (82) > UCLA (99)

Total Offense
K-State (55) > UCLA (103)

Scoring Offense
UCLA (67) > K-State (97)

Rushing Defense
UCLA (30) > K-State (48)

Pass Efficiency Defense
UCLA (7) > K-State (10)

Total Defense
UCLA (27) > K-State (29)

Scoring Defense
UCLA (33) > K-State (43)

Net Punting
UCLA (58) > K-State (103)

Punt Returns
UCLA (34) > K-State (39)

Kickoff Returns
UCLA (12) > K-State (98)

Turnover Margin
UCLA (15) > K-State (59)

Pass Defense
K-State (23) > UCLA (37)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (87) > UCLA (93)

Analysis

This match-up is like the ultimate example of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. If Daniel Thomas is the force, then UCLA's defense is the object. Or vice versa.

Simply put, K-State has a better overall offense than UCLA - as hard as that is to believe - and the injury to Kevin Prince should only render the Bruins more impotent on that side of the ball. True freshman Richard Brehaut probably will be starting his first collegiate game and attempting only his third collegiate pass, and while I expect that the former Elite 11 quarterback will settle down and do well this season, he could be in for a rough start against a defense that is looking increasingly Mobbish with each passing game.

Speaking of passing games, ours frankly sucks. If you watched last Saturday's game on ESPN360, you already know that. If you didn't, be glad. There's even talk that Thomas may start at QB, which probably could only be an improvement over what we've seen. And the really scary thing is that UCLA is even better than us on defense, especially considering they played (and won) in hostile Neyland Stadium and we played (and lost) on anemic Cajun Field.

The X-factor in this game - which likely figures to be a close, defensive battle - could be special teams, and that doesn't bode well for the Cats, who have been uncharacteristically (for either Prince or Snyder) bad on that side of the ball. The really distressing thing to me isn't the kicking game (I think Josh Cherry eventually will settle down and be a decent kicker for us, and hell, he's due to finally hit one); it's the lack of ANYTHING in the return game. We seem to have no blocking or speed back there, and when you're struggling to score as it is, having a good return game can be the difference between victory and defeat. Just ask Darren Sproles and the San Diego Chargers.

So as usual, the keys to victory for the Wildcats are the same as always: be sound in the kicking game, protect the damn ball, don't beat yourselves, and let the defense and the running backs win it. Will this be the week this young team finally learns the lesson and begins to apply it? Tune into Fox Sports Net at 9:30 Central time to find out...

Prediction: UCLA 30, Kansas State 16

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Colten Freeze, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

K: Josh Cherry
P: Ryan Doerr
R: Brandon Banks, Tysyn Hartman

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

This week, I like Bill Self over Mike Krzyzewski, the Sooners over the Golden Showers (but the Golden Showers over the Cyclones), and the Aggies to beat the Aggies.

I'm also not yet buying the Great Nebraska Resurgence, but I think Colorado collects possibly its only win of the season in a Western shootout.

Hey, Okie Lite... watch out, I hear those Conference USA teams can be tricky.

And of course, all eyes will be tuned to Austin tomorrow night to see if the Longhorns can avenge their one loss from last year. Strangely, I expect Captain Potts and his scurvy crew to capsize in a fairly low-scoring game, based mainly on the fact that most games this year have been lower-scoring affairs than the "experts" have predicted.

Duke at #22 Kansas (Versus)
Jayhawks 31, Blue Devils 23

Furman at #25 Missouri (FSN PPV)
Tigers 43, Paladins 14

Tulsa at #12 Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 20, Golden Hurricane 13

#19 Nebraska at #13 Virginia Tech (ABC)
Hokies 22, Cornhuskers 14

Wyoming at Colorado
Buffaloes 35, Cowboys 34

Connecticut at Baylor
Bears 24, Huskies 20

Utah State at Texas A&M
Texas A&M Aggies 35, Utah State Aggies 20

Rice at #16 Oklahoma State
Cowboys 41, Owls 15

Iowa State at Kent State
Golden Flashes 38, Cyclones 36

Texas Tech at #2 Texas
Longhorns 23, Red Raiders 16

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.