SB Nation - Daniel Calvin

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Nebraska

BracketCat — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:15:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5 | 4-3) VS. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3 | 4-2)

The Big 12 North Championship
Nebraska Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, Neb.
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009 - 6:45 PM CST

ESPN

After 11 weeks of strife and struggle, it comes down to this: One game separates us from either glory or disappointment.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Corn Nation.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (89 of 144, 970 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (51 catches, 657 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (228 carries, 1,166 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Josh Cherry (11 of 17 FG made)

Passing
Zac Lee (136 of 227, 1,692 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Niles Paul (29 catches, 567 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Roy Helu Jr. (167 carries, 962 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Ndamukong Suh (56 tackles, 13 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (31 | -8) > NU (57)

Passing Offense
NU (82) > K-State (105 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (75 | +3) > NU (77)

Scoring Offense
NU (68) > K-State (75 | -6)

Rushing Defense
NU (11) > K-State (23 | -3)

Pass Efficiency Defense
NU (3) > K-State (75 | -15)

Total Defense
NU (10) > K-State (47 | -4)

Scoring Defense
NU (3) > K-State (59 | -14)

Net Punting
K-State (73 | +4) > NU (100)

Punt Returns
NU (40) > K-State (47 | -3)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (6 | -2) > NU (44)

Turnover Margin
K-State (19 | -13) > NU (59)

Pass Defense
NU (26) > K-State (90 | -7)

Passing Efficiency
NU (68) > K-State (78 | -2)

Analysis

There's no shading the fact that the numbers really don't favor us in this matchup — especially in light of the Wildcats' poor performance last Saturday.

To secure a win, K-State will have to press its advantage in a few key areas: rushing offense (against the No. 3 rushing defense in the country, though), total offense (our record is pretty clear — when we don't score 20, we don't win, with KU being the rare exception), net punting (don't be afraid to play the field-position game), kickoff returns (we've got to spring Brandon Banks loose at least once, because against that defense, good field position will be critical to scoring points), and turnover margin (simply put, we cannot turn it over like we did last week — duh).

So as I see it, the recipe for victory is no turnovers, finding a way to score by opening up the playbook and creating plays on special teams. Oh, yeah, did I mention don't turn it over?

I'm going to go ahead and join the rest of the nation in predicting a comfortable Nebraska win, in order to reclaim some of that reverse-jinx magic I had earlier in the season. We'll need all the help we can get, unfortunately.

At this point, though, I really don't care if we win or lose. Either way, it has been a successful season. I just want to see this team leave nothing on the field. This could be the end of their season — I want to see them play like it. And if Nebraska is to win, I want them to know they were in a dogfight first.

Prediction: Nebraska 21, Kansas State 8 (that's a safety and two field goals, BTW)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

The weekend kicked off in weird fashion with a turnover-plagued and mistake-filled exhibition of crap last night on ESPN, as Oklahoma State disinterestedly survived Colorado 31-28 at home.

Look for more of the same this weekend, as ours is the only game of real consequence.

Oklahoma and Texas Tech are playing for bowl position, and I'm not sure that will be enough for the normally mighty Sooners to avoid being upset in a city they have lost in before.

Iowa State at Missouri and Kansas at Texas both figure to be ho-hum wins by probably the most talented teams in their respective divisions.

That leaves Baylor at Texas A&M, the battle for the Big 12 South basement. Oh, yeah, give me some of that.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 20, Sooners 19

Iowa State at Missouri
Tigers 31, Cyclones 22

Baylor at Texas A&M
Aggies 31, Bears 27

Kansas at #3 Texas (ABC)
Longhorns 29, Jayhawks 6

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Missouri

BracketCat — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 07:30:13 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-4 | 4-2) VS. Missouri Tigers (5-4 | 1-4)

Senior Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock M Nation — unofficial second home of the temporarily suspended Unholy Alliance.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (68 of 114, 731 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (43 catches, 529 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (205 carries, 1,087 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (51 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 2 FR)

Passing
Blaine Gabbert (181 of 314, 2,364 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Danario Alexander (71 catches, 1,038 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Derrick Washington (140 carries, 562 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Sean Weatherspoon (84 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (23 | +9) > MU (102)

Passing Offense
MU (21) > K-State (106 | -4)

Total Offense
MU (56) > K-State (78 | -3)

Scoring Offense
MU (57) > K-State (69 | -11)

Rushing Defense
MU (17) > K-State (20 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (60 | +3) > MU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (43) > MU (45)

Scoring Defense
K-State (45 | +14) > MU (63)

Net Punting
MU (7) > K-State (77 | +10)

Punt Returns
K-State (44 | -1) > MU (49)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > MU (103)

Turnover Margin
K-State (6 | +8) > MU (69)

Pass Defense
K-State (83 | -2) > MU (89)

Passing Efficiency
MU (49) > K-State (76 | -6)

Analysis

Second verse, same as the first. If you covered up the numbers and just listed them as "Team A" and "Team B," you would see very little statistical difference between Kansas and Missouri. They're both spread teams who are good at passing the ball and defending the pass (likely because they see it every day in practice), but they both also suck at running the ball or stopping the run.

And just like last week, I say to throw out the stats. I think Mizzou will come in with their backs against the wall and give us everything we want in the first half. Blaine Gabbert isn't nearly as turnover-prone as Todd Reesing, so we're going to have to win this the old-fashioned way: D-Train left, D-Train right, D-Train up the middle.

One thing's for sure: If we lead at halftime, it's over. Missouri hasn't scored a TD in the second half of any of its conference games and Bill Snyder has a prodigious record when leading at the half, especially at home.

Furthermore, Bill Snyder is undefeated against Missouri at home in November and undefeated against Gary Pinkel. Things are unraveling in Columbia, and I don't think this is the best place for them to try and put it all back together.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Missouri 25

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

We're keeping it all in the divisions this week, and the pecking order in both the North and the South should become a lot clearer after Saturday's games.

In general, I like the home teams, except in the case of rapidly fading Kansas and outmatched Baylor. Whaddaya know? The two traditional Big 12 bottom-feeders, unable to defend their home turf? Just like old times, says I.

#2 Texas at Baylor (FSN)
Longhorns 28, Bears 10

Colorado at Iowa State
Cyclones 35, Buffaloes 28

Nebraska at Kansas (ABC)
Cornhuskers 25, Jayhawks 22

Texas A&M at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 28, Aggies 18

Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Cowboys 22, Red Raiders 16

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Kansas

BracketCat — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:00:24 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 | 3-2) VS. Kansas Jayhawks (5-3 | 1-3)

The Sunflower Showdown
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock Chalk Talk — but I don't recommend it. They have diseases over there.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (61 of 98, 665 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (42 catches, 524 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (181 carries, 902 yards, 10 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (29 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 2 FF, 2 FR)

Passing
Todd Reesing (205 of 320, 2,385 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Kerry Meier (65 catches, 666 yards, 6 TD)

Rushing
Toben Opurum (114 carries, 491 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Dezmon Briscoe (54 catches, 841 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (32 | -7) > KU (76)

Passing Offense
KU (7) > K-State (102 | +2)

Total Offense
KU (11) > K-State (75 | -1)

Scoring Offense
KU (19) > K-State (58 | +6)

Rushing Defense
KU (14) > K-State (24 | -5)

Pass Efficiency Defense
KU (56) > K-State (63 | -12)

Total Defense
K-State (43 | -4) > KU (47)

Scoring Defense
K-State (59 | -13) > KU (71)

Net Punting
KU (85) > K-State (87 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (43 | -1) > KU (85)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5) > KU (87)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14) > KU (57)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -7) > KU (100)

Passing Efficiency
KU (35) > K-State (70 | -3)

Analysis

See all those pretty numbers above? This may be the only time you hear this from a stats guy like me, so enjoy it:

Throw 'em out the window. They don't mean jack.

Nothing would surprise me in this game. Not another 12-3 slugfest, not K-State passing for 300 yards, not Sharp rumbling for 200 again (well, that would be a little surprising).

Both teams want this one and it will be a war. Mark that down.

I will say this: KU, like OU, is rated ahead of us in most categories, which you should take with a grain of salt because of the weak non-conference competition. As the Jayhawks get further into the conference season, those numbers have continued to plummet.

But unlike OU, KU is worse than K-State in four key areas, by a significant margin: total defense, scoring defense, punt returns and pass defense. And we're at home, in front of a near-sellout crowd, with a legend on the sidelines. I'm just sayin'...

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Kansas 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Texas rolls in a laugher and suddenly dominant Texas A&M should cruise in high altitude.

Mizzou will get more fight from the hibernating Bears than they might expect, but that has more to do with Gary Pinkel's crappy halftime adjustments than anything else.

Iowa State is a hot upset pick, but I think T. Boone's boys will get it done. "Win one for the Dezzer!"

And that leaves the rumble in Memorial Stadium. If the over for this game was 400 cumulative yards for both teams, I might be tempted to bet the under. Should be fun.

UCF at #2 Texas (FSN)
Longhorns 33, Golden Knights 7

Texas A&M at Colorado
Aggies 32, Buffaloes 27

Baylor at Missouri
Tigers 34, Bears 23

#18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (ABC)
Cowboys 26, Cyclones 21

#20 Oklahoma at Nebraska (ABC)
Sooners 20, Cornhuskers 19

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Oklahoma

BracketCat — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:45:15 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-3 | 3-1) VS. No. 22 Oklahoma Sooners (4-3 | 2-1)

The Norman Conquest
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Norman, Okla.
Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009 - 6 PM CST

FSN

A tough task awaits this week. By statistical fluke, we actually possess a better overall and Big 12 record than the Oklahoma Sooners, but we're going to have to play a solid — and lucky — game to keep it that way Saturday night.

The Sooners have forced at least two turnovers in each game this season and have forced at least three four times. And Bob Stoops has only lost two home games during his entire tenure at OU — and neither of them were to North teams.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Crimson And Cream Machine.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (42 of 68, 491 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (33 catches, 368 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (165 carries, 814 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (41 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 INT, 1 FR)

Passing
Landry Jones (117 of 192, 1,363 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Broyles (36 catches, 500 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Chris Brown (105 carries, 427 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
DeMarco Murray (84 catches, 403 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (25 | +8) > OU (65)

Passing Offense
OU (20) > K-State (104 | -9)

Total Offense
OU (29) > K-State (74 | -5)

Scoring Offense
OU (24) > K-State (64 | -6)

Rushing Defense
OU (3) > K-State (19 | +7)

Pass Efficiency Defense
OU (12) > K-State (51 | +17)

Total Defense
OU (6) > K-State (39 | +8)

Scoring Defense
OU (2) > K-State (46 | +17)

Net Punting
OU (24) > K-State (92 | -3)

Punt Returns
OU (13) > K-State (42 | -11)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +2) > OU (76)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14 | +10) > OU (26)

Pass Defense
OU (36) > K-State (74 | +7)

Passing Efficiency
OU (40) > K-State (67 | -12)

Analysis

Well, as much as I hate to admit it, Oklahoma clearly outclasses us in most categories, despite not being a particularly impressive team on offense or special teams. Our one distinct advantage is in running the ball, something the Sooners seemed to have abandoned trying altogether. Unfortunately, it will be strength against strength, because Daniel Thomas will have to run straight into the teeth of the Oklahoma run defense, led by Gerald McCoy.

On offense, Oklahoma isn't particularly proficient at passing, either, but they're passably decent and Ryan Broyles is a deadly threat every time he catches the ball, just like Brandon Banks. I think our secondary will do a decent job on them, but Landry Jones is a pretty decent quarterback — he just has crappy receivers who can't catch the ball. If our offense doesn't do its part to keep theirs off the field, it will end up being a long day, most likely.

That leaves the onus on special teams. We absolutely have to break a big play for a touchdown, and maybe two — whether on kick returns, punt returns or punt blocks. I don't see any other way to keep up with OU's offense given our own ineptitude in the passing game of late.

As usual, field position and turnovers will be key, because we will need to play the same keep-away game we've honed all season. I'm worried, since Oklahoma has a significant advantage in both net punting and punt returns, and isn't far behind us in turnover margin.

On paper, this is the second-worst matchup of the season. But games aren't played on paper. I'm optimistic enough to say the Cats will play well enough defensively, in what should be a fairly defensive game, to beat the 25-point spread.

Beating the Sooners, on the other hand, is a trickier proposition. It will require turnovers, big plays from Brandon Banks, some big-time open-field runs from Daniel Thomas and a superb passing day from Grant Gregory, as well as a ton of luck. I just don't see it happening.

As usual, we will need to score at least 20 points to secure the win, as we have done in all five previous victories. But that might not even be enough to escape Norman with a W.

Prediction: Oklahoma 29, Kansas State 17

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Nothing has been as predicted this season, so while I am sure everyone expects Nebraska to get out of Waco with a win while scoring only 10 points, I'm going to go ahead and say it will be more of a shootout than that. It's just been that kind of year.

Likewise, everyone thinks Kansas at Texas Tech will be a shootout... so I'm expecting a defensive struggle.

I think Mizzou and Texas A&M barely will squeak out wins, but would either Colorado or Iowa State winning surprise you all that much?

And in the big game, I expect Texas to survive their biggest challenge after learning from last year's debacle in Lubbock. Oklahoma State has lost too many pieces they expected to have to pull this off.

Nebraska at Baylor (Versus)
Huskers 30, Bears 25

Missouri at Colorado (FSN)
Tigers 30, Buffaloes 28

Kansas at Texas Tech (ABC)
Red Raiders 25, Jayhawks 21

Iowa State at Texas A&M
Aggies 27, Cyclones 26

#3 Texas at #13 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Longhorns 17, Cowboys 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

TB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:48 -0000

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12. Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win. I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly? Yes. It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly. Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple. The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright. Two home games against division opponents remain. Odds: 10-1

Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it. Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU. Oh, and no confidence right now. Odds: 12-1

KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error. Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits. Odds: 15-1

Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left. Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now. Odds: 15-1

While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson. Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win. Odds: 30-1

Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback. Also, can't win on the road. Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion. Odds: 50-1

Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU). I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point. Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game. A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins. However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table. We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level. But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win. They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams. They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska). There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games. Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis. Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams). Yes, I thought Louisiana was better. They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in. Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS. When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall. Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete. Defensively, they're very, very good. Offensively, they struggle. I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling. K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best. Ditto A&M and Texas Tech. I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team. I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points. I still think OSU does have what it takes. It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget. The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake. On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise. Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen. No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1. Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2. Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3. Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4. Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!" Way to throw one of your own under the bus. But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5. K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here. The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6. Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense. Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points? If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7. KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now. Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8. Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now. If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again. If he doesn't, they're not.
9. Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2. Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win. On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10. Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week. Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11. Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan. Buffs need to regroup.
12. Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Colorado

BracketCat — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:00:19 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (4-3 | 2-1) VS. Colorado Buffaloes (2-4 | 1-1)

Homecoming
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

FCS

Flush off an upset victory over the overrated Kansas Jayhawks, the Buffaloes storm into town looking to tie us for first place in the Big 12 North.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see The Ralphie Report.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (33 of 50, 411 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (30 catches, 354 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (145 carries, 669 yards, 8 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (22 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR, 2 FF)

Passing
Tyler Hansen (17 of 30, 192 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Scotty McKnight (35 catches, 370 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Rodney Stewart (104 carries, 418 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Riar Geer (25 catches, 284 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (33 | +5) > CU (108)

Passing Offense
CU (61) > K-State (95 | -4)

Total Offense
K-State (69 | +6) > CU (103)

Scoring Offense
K-State (58 | +41) > CU (78)

Rushing Defense
K-State (26 | +24) > CU (66)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (68 | +16) > CU (102)

Total Defense
K-State (47 | +6) > CU (96)

Scoring Defense
K-State (63 | +3) > CU (100)

Net Punting
K-State (89 | +3) > CU (114)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | -3) > CU (107)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (7 | +16) > CU (26)

Turnover Margin
K-State (24 | +37) > CU (77)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -16) > CU (105)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (55 | +16) > CU (109)

Analysis

Last week, there was a whole lotta red. This week, it's all about the green, baby.

On paper, we should dominate Colorado. Yes, their performance last week was impressive from an emotional standpoint, but as Kevin Romary once said, by this time in the season, "ya are who ya are."

Colorado still can't run the ball with any consistency (108th in the nation). A quarterback change won't help that much — that problem is on the offensive line.

Tyler Hansen also will be hard-pressed to raise the Buffaloes' overall offensive numbers (103rd in the country), despite bringing more of a run threat to the table. That's because the Buffs still have the weakest set of wide receivers in the Big 12.

On defense, Colorado truly struggles to cover the pass (102nd in pass efficiency defense), which is instant death in most Big 12 games. Not so much against us, but something tells me Grant Gregory should have a solid outing regardless. Yes, Colorado generated pressure on Kansas for the first time all season, but I still think that was more about the Jayhawks' crappy interior OL than it was about Colorado's DL. Plus, Colorado has one of the least talented and least disciplined secondaries in the country — which you saw if you watched the second half, when Reesing lobbed jump ball after jump ball against them for huge gains.

Colorado's overall scoring defense isn't much better (100th).

In the field position, we also have a huge advantage, and it's not just because of Brandon Banks. At 114th in the nation, Colorado is the first team we have played all year that is worse than us in net punting. I didn't think that was possible, even though we have made incremental improvements each week.

On the flip side, the Buffaloes are 107th in punt returns. We could be playing a lot on the opponent's side of the 50 for the second straight week.

Finally, to complete the ignominy, Colorado is 105th in passing defense and 109th in passing efficiency.

Look, I know Buff fans are all excited about Hansen, and rightfully so, but Cody Hawkins didn't punt or play defense. Colorado is 2-4 for a reason, and I haven't seen that many sub-100 statistics since ... well, Ron Prince's team last year. But even Prince's teams were better on offense than Colorado has been.

Don't read too much into the rushing defense performances against Texas and Kansas, either. Both teams look to throw first, throw second and then maybe run third. Both got behind early and threw to catch up. Both have suffered injuries to their starting running backs this season, and Texas had an injured backup, too. Neither team has Daniel Thomas.

The more I examine this matchup, the harder it is for me to envision Colorado winning. Hell, the one category the Buffs outclass us in — passing offense (they are 61st; we're 95th) — isn't even really an advantage, because they chose to make themselves a one-dimensional passing team and ride Cody Hawkins' arm, for some reason. Passing offense measures pure yardage, but a much better measure of pure passing power is passing efficiency, or yards per throw/catch. We're 55th and they're 109th. Gregory is the most efficient quarterback in Big 12 play so far.

And I haven't even talked about intangibles yet. We're 3-0 at home (and should have at least 45,000 fans there tomorrow), 2-0 in day games and 2-0 on FCS (not that that really means anything). And we have the best coach in America.

I'm not trying to slight Buffs. To pull off the win last week like they did and give themselves even a shred of hope after the terrible start they endured is impressive and commendable. But they're still not a great team. We're not a great team, either, but even through our early struggles we have looked better in all phases of the game than Colorado has. We're better coached, have better athletes across the board and are playing at home. There is no excuse to lose this game, and if we do, our season pretty much is over.

Key stats to watch for: We need to jump on them early and score at least three touchdowns in the game. K-State is 3-0 when leading after halftime (and 3-0 when leading after the third quarter) and 4-0 when scoring 20 or more points. Stifling the Buffs on defense will help, too; we're 2-0 when allowing 10 points or less (and 74-0 since 1990). Most important, we must protect the ball (duh). K-State is 2-0 when we don't turn it over.

Factor in that we have yet to run back a punt or block a punt and probably are due, and I think it could end up being a long day for the Buffs if all goes well.

Like I said, on paper, we should win. But games aren't played on paper. That 11:30 a.m. start continues to worry me, as does our inconsistency this season. But the Buffaloes' upset of Kansas had to be emotionally draining, and this will be a taxing road trip for them. At some point, you just gotta have faith in Bill Snyder. I'm picking it close, but if we turned the corner I think we did last week, it could end up ugly.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, Colorado 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Oklahoma State won in College Station, so they shouldn't have too many problems in Waco, either.

I know Nebraska is having an identity crisis right now, but Memorial Stadium is an exceedingly tough place to play (and coach). I suspect Iowa State used up all of its good luck karma against KU and K-State, and still didn't get the job done. The Huskers will get right tomorrow.

I know I said yesterday that OU will win, and I still believe that to be the case. But this is the first of OU's challenging "L" games (Lawrence, Lubbock, Lincoln), and I just can't shake that ugly feeling I had in 2007 that KU might find a way to win. At any rate, I'm picking the Hawks solely to jinx them, so don't read too much into it.

Everyone is predicting a huge blowout in Lubbock, but wouldn't it just be like the Aggies to find a way to win that game? I don't think they will, but if they have any pride left, it might be closer than most think.

Longhorns will get it done. I'm not impressed by Missouri at all and I'm starting to think they actually might have the worst coach in the North, not Colorado. Yeeouch.

#14 Oklahoma State at Baylor (Versus)
Cowboys 29, Bears 23

Iowa State at Nebraska (FSN)
Cornhuskers 30, Cyclones 16

#25 Oklahoma at #24 Kansas (ABC)
Jayhawks 22, Sooners 21

Texas A&M at #21 Texas Tech
Red Raiders 35, Aggies 15

#3 Texas at Missouri (ABC)
Longhorns 23, Tigers 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: Texas A&M University

BracketCat — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:30:17 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (3-3 | 1-1) VS. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2 | 0-1)

Harley Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FCS

Strike up "The Cross of Galahad" and kick-start your Harley, because the Fighting Texas Aggies are coming to town for a rumble. Gig 'em on past the jump for a preview of this week's opponent.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (66 of 111, 815 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (24 catches, 294 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (127 carries, 578 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Attrail Snipes (14 catches, 242 yards, 2 TD)

TAMU

Passing
Jerrod Johnson (127 of 211, 1,579 yards, 14 TD, 0 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Tannehill (20 catches, 308 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Cyrus Gray (72 carries, 314 yards, 2 TD)

Wild Card
Von Miller (24 tackles, 11 TFL, 9 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
TAMU (28) > K-State (38 | -2)

Passing Offense
TAMU (9) > K-State (91 | -1)

Total Offense
TAMU (4) > K-State (75 | -12)

Scoring Offense
TAMU (12) > K-State (99 | -12)

Rushing Defense
K-State (50 | -12) > TAMU (81)

Pass Efficiency Defense
TAMU (67) > K-State (84 | -62)

Total Defense
K-State (53 | -37) > TAMU (83)

Scoring Defense
K-State (66 | -37) > TAMU (85)

Net Punting
TAMU (39) > K-State (92 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (28 | +3) > TAMU (62)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (23 | -19) > TAMU (54)

Turnover Margin
TAMU (26) > K-State (61)

Pass Defense
K-State (65 | -58) > TAMU (81)

Passing Efficiency
TAMU (26) > K-State (71)

Analysis

Holy shit, that's a lot of red.

As you might expect, our painful encounter with the Red Raiders pretty much resulted in Mike Leach tentacle-raping our way-overinflated pass defense statistics. What I didn't foresee, though, is that Tech's normally impotent running game had the same effect on our rush defense statistics. Net result? An uncomfortable similarity to Ron Prince-era defensive numbers. We're not quite back to the triple digits yet, but we still have Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri to look forward to.

Time to get Halloween started early with my scary thought for the week: Texas A&M actually is ranked higher than Texas Tech in several offensive categories -- most notably rushing offense, of course. This does not augur well for a beleaguered and confidence-less defense limping home from the South Plains.

And if seeing Sticks Sheffield tear us apart wasn't fun enough, now we get to enjoy the same treatment whilst also watching our defenders bend down and grasp their ankles while Jerrod Johnson does his best Austen-Arnaud-times-two impression tomorrow night.

We have two chances to keep this game close and possibly even winnable in the fourth quarter. The battle plan is the same as last week; we just need to execute it 500 percent better. A&M has a weaker run defense than we do, and we need to not abandon the run in the first quarter like we did in Lubbock. Daniel Thomas should be able to net yards on these guys. That's key, because regardless if Carson Coffman or Grant Gregory gets the start, the pass rush they witnessed in Jones SBC Stadium will seem like being charged by geriatrics in walkers, compared to what Von Miller is going to do to Clyde Aufner.

On top of that, we have to make plays on special teams. Kick returns, punt returns, blocked kicks... I really don't care what. But it's become painfully clear that our offense never is going to score enough points to challenge "normal" Big 12 offenses conventionally, so our special teams need to manufacture scores to make up the difference. I'd say our defense could force turnovers to help, but despite Jeffrey Fitzgerald's wonderful interception runback, our defense in general is going to have little success doing so because you actually have to hit a guy before you can jar the ball loose.

All I can say is this: Thank God it's a night game at the Bill and it's Harley Day. The atmospheric boost we will get from that just might jar the Aggies enough in their first game outside the state of Texas, and away from friendly crowds, to crack open the door to victory ever so slightly.

But it's hard for me to forget that Ron Prince had to break Bill Snyder's five-game losing streak to the Aggies, a team that has given him even more heartache than Texas Tech over the years. As in the 2005 game, which we lost 30-28, I think the Cats will put up a game effort, but fall just short of victory. Unfortunately, that really could unravel the season.

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Kansas State 30

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Joseph Kassanavoid
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Emmanuel Lamur, Torrell Miller, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Good matchups this week. I predict a slew of close, exciting games. And yes, I do think the Huskers' defense is that good. More specifically, I think Ndamukong Suh is that good. I also liked what I saw out of Baylor last week -- I think they might be good enough across the board to survive in Ames.

#20 Oklahoma vs. #3 Texas (in Dallas) (ABC)
Longhorns 18, Sooners 17

Texas Tech at #15 Nebraska (ABC)
Cornhuskers 24, Red Raiders 10

#17 Kansas at Colorado (FSN)
Jayhawks 31, Buffaloes 21

Baylor at Iowa State
Bears 30, Cyclones 28

Missouri at #16 Oklahoma State (ESPN2)
Cowboys 22, Tigers 20

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: Texas Tech University

BracketCat — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:01:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (3-2 | 1-0) AT Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2 | 0-1)

The Likely Loss in Lubbock
Jones AT&T Stadium - Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FSN

Arr, mateys. Click the jump for a scurvy preview of Capt. Leach's scalawags.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (18 of 29, 227 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 carries, 121 yards, 2 TD)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (23 catches, 289 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (116 carries, 529 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Brandon Harold* (45 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FF)

*2008 stats

TTU

Passing
Steven Sheffield (20 of 29, 290 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Alex Torres (29 catches, 301 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Baron Batch (44 carries, 226 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Lyle Leong (22 catches, 281 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (36 | -4) > TTU (120)

Passing Offense
TTU (2) > K-State (90 | +1)

Total Offense
TTU (8) > K-State (63 | -8)

Scoring Offense
TTU (11) > K-State (87)

Rushing Defense
TTU (28) > K-State (38 | -21)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (22 | -2) > TTU (48)

Total Defense
K-State (16 | -6) > TTU (69)

Scoring Defense
K-State (29 | -3) > TTU (51)

Net Punting
TTU (62) > K-State (101 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | +5) > TTU (43)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > TTU (23)

Turnover Margin
K-State (61 | -5) > TTU (100)

Pass Defense
K-State (7 | +6) > TTU (99)

Passing Efficiency
TTU (27) > K-State (71 | +16)

Analysis

I'll keep this simple: Texas Tech loves to pass the ball and really sucks at running it. They also turn it over a lot.

This would seem to favor us, because we have a really good passing defense, but we also haven't truly been tested downfield by anyone yet. And our rushing defense got exposed a little last week, too, so that remains an area of concern. Our lack of a pass rush also is a major concern.

We have sucked at passing, but might get a lot better now that Grant Gregory is starting. We are good at running the ball, but Tech is really good at stopping the run too. Our chief advantage is in the return game.

What does it all mean? I have no earthly idea. On paper, we should get killed by the talent mismatch, but Tech is breaking in a new starting QB for the first time in the Mike Leach era and also might not take us as seriously as it should. We are, after all, slightly better than the 0-5 New Mexico team that gave the Red Raiders fits last week.

I think the game will be closer than the experts think, but we just won't generate enough of a pass rush to pressure Sheffield — even if Brandon Harold starts, as is rumored.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 22

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

As I write this, Nebraska just pulled off a stunning comeback that clearly anoints them as the front-runner in the North. With games against Oklahoma State and Texas next, Missouri is in serious danger of an 0-3 start.

Oklahoma State is depleted, yes, but Texas A&M is just terrible. The Cowboys should be able to escape College Station with a win.

Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all are served sacrificial lambs on a platter this week. Hell, our game might end up being one of the more competitive. It's too bad that the Big Ten and SEC showdowns aren't paralleled by great games in the Big 12 on Saturday. Hell, we moved our best game to a Thursday. Brilliant.

#15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (FSN)
Cowboys 25, Aggies 23

Iowa State at #16 Kansas (Versus)
Jayhawks 33, Cyclones 17

Baylor at #19 Oklahoma (ABC)
Sooners 27, Bears 15

Colorado at #2 Texas (ESPN)
Longhorns 33, Buffaloes 11

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Q & A with Bring On The Cats

Seth C — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:00:45 -0000

Thanks to TB from Bring on the Cats for doing a little Q & A with DTN.

1. Head coach Bill Snyder inserted Grant Gregory into the starting lineup last week against ISU, what does he bring to the table that's different than Case Coffman?

Mostly, he seemed to make better decisions. One of our biggest frustrations with Coffman was that he took too many sacks by standing in the pocket and not eluding the rush. Gregory showed a very nice ability to sense the rush, avoid it, buy some time, and keep his eyes downfield. He also had a better sense of when to tuck it and run. We've seen a couple times this year when Coffman has 20 yards of open space in front of him and he still looks for someone to throw it to.

On another K-State message board, there's a serious debate raging right now as to who has a better arm between the two. Suffice it to say, neither of them are going to get into a gunslinging contest with Josh Freeman, but Gregory was pretty sharp Saturday.

2. Thus far, the defense has really limited opponents thus far (7th in passing defense and 38th in rushing defense), who has performed above expectations and what, if anything, can the defense do to improve?

Only Tysyn Hartman has really exceeded expectations. He was converted from quarterback to safety last year, and has done a tremendous job back there. After last week, he ought to have two more interceptions, but somehow let two certain interceptions go right through his hands while playing centerfield against Iowa State.

Other than that, everyone's a little better, but nobody has exceeded expectations. The biggest difference this year is scheme and positioning. Nobody is blowing open 10-yard wide holes in the middle of the defense. The tackling fundamentals are still generally subpar, but at least first contact is being made at the line of scrimmage or a yard or two downfield, rather than deep into the secondary.

As for getting better, we really, really need DE Brandon Harold to get healthy. He was injured during fall practice and hasn't played yet. Harold was a freshman All-America last season, and this defensive line desperately needs some help. If Harold were in there, other teams would be forced to double him, opening up Jeffrey Fitzgerald and Daniel Calvin to make plays. I don't think he'll be back this week, but we could really use him if we're going to get pressure on Tech's QB with our front four.

3. The offense has done a great job rushing the ball this year, is this a case where the offensive line is doing a better job, the running backs are playing better, or a general change in philosophy.

It's a little of all three. Our offensive line was projected to be a strength coming into the season because it was supposed to be experienced. Injuries have hampered the development somewhat, but overall the line play has been solid, if not spectacular.

It's probably a dead heat between a change in philosophy and better running backs. Clearly, Bill Snyder has decided that we are going to pound the rock, control the clock, and thereby take pressure off our defense. I think we still lead the country in time of possession.

Of course, you can't overlook what Daniel Thomas has meant to this team. Coaches and teammates alike raved about his abilities in fall practice, and he hasn't disappointed, ranking 16th in the nation in rushing yards per game. At 6'3", 227 lbs., he's solid, and he isn't slow. In junior college, he played some quarterback, so you'll likely see him take some snaps in the Wildcat formation (we can go ahead and call it the Wildcat, rather than Wildhog or Wildhorn or whatever ridiculous nomenclature other teams use), although he hasn't thrown very many passes out of that formation yet.

4. Speaking of change in philosophy, what is the biggest philosophical change that Snyder has implemented with KSU? Perhaps one item from the field and one item off the field.

On the field, it's undoubtedly a focus on the running game. We use a fullback, we run some zone read, a little option, and some rushing out of the Wildcat formation. It's a huge change from Ron Prince, where the idea was "let Freeman sling it all over the field and see what happens." Freeman was an incredible talent, but he didn't have a great supporting cast, and without any balance it would have been hard for any quarterback to do anything well.

Off the field, I'm not sure I can differentiate among the things that have changed. I'll go ahead and say that the biggest change is that he knows how to manage a roster. We no longer worry that we'll burn somebody's redshirt in the ninth game of the year so he can play on two special teams plays. Despite Snyder's reputation, I also no longer fear that he'll bring in 19 junior college recruits as some desperate ploy either to save his job or send Freeman to the NFL with a bang.

5. General thoughts about the game on Saturday, what do you expect Kansas St. to try to do both offensively and defensively.

Offensively, it'll be more of the same. Snyder is going to try and run the ball down Tech's throat. I'm sure he's seen the film of Tech against Houston and New Mexico, and both games reveal that Tech's defense has apparently gone missing since the trip to Austin. Further, he adheres to the old cliche that the other team can't score when they don't have the ball. Just like Nebraska did in Lubbock last year, Snyder is going to try and control the ball for 35-40 minutes and hope that Tech doesn't have 20 one-minute scoring drives. If he can get the running game established, K-State may actually have a chance here, because I can see a few well-timed play-actions or Grant Gregory-scrambles working out well.

On defense, we are not a team that's going to blitz you to death. Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh are content to let the front four try and get pressure -- it hasn't worked very well this year -- while focusing on sound assignment football with the linebackers and secondary. Our secondary actually is pretty solid this year; the linebackers are another story. And as we all know against Tech, it doesn't matter how good your secondary is, because if your line doesn't get pressure, Tech's QB (whomever it is) will pick you apart. If Harold isn't back for this game, we need to hope for a combination of an off game for the Tech playmakers and some good coverage from our secondary. Josh Moore is a very good cornerback on one side, which should reduce the options available each time the ball is snapped.