SB Nation - Brandon Banks

Thoughts On All-Big 12 Football Team

Beergut — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:25:36 -0000

by Jerry Larson - AP

Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year Christine Michael. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune-Herald, Jerry Larson)

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I thought Jordan Shipley should have been named Offensive Player of the Year instead of Colt McCoy. McCoy had a poor first half of the season; Shipley was remarkably consistent game-in and game-out this year, and I thought that should count for something.
Mack Brown getting Big 12 Coach of the Year is something of a joke, in my opinion. texas was favored to win the Big 12 South and the conference in the preseason, and they....won the Big 12 South and will play for the conference championship this weekend. What about Paul Rhoads, who took a team picked to finish last in the Big 12 North to a fourth place finish and bowl contention?
I don't agree with the pick of Jeron Mastrud for all-conference TE over Jamie McCoy at all. McCoy had better numbers (31 receptions, 328 yards, 1 TD vs. 21 receptions, 233 yards, 1 TD), and was versatile enough to play some H-back and FB.
I was pleasantly surprised to see Christine Michael make Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year. I thought he had a terrific season, but I figured the coaches would take the easy way out and give it to Landry Jones, who did receive some votes.

I think it is interesting that outside of Earl Thomas, texas had no other players make the first team defense. I thought Lamarr Houston deserved some serious consideration, although I can't argue against including Jared Crick, Ndamukong Suh, or Gerald McCoy at the DT position.
It was a surprise to see Michael Hodges receive some votes for Defensive Newcomer of the Year.
I am also happy some coaches think Jerrod Johnson deserved to be Offensive Player of the Year.
Von Miller received votes for both Defensive Lineman of the Year AND Defensive Player of the Year. With a freak of nature like Suh in this conference, you knew he wouldn't win either award, but the recognition of his performance this year is nice.
This conference is ridiculously loaded at wide receiver; show me another conference that can name a talented trio like Ryan Broyles, Kerry Meier, and Brandon Banks as their SECOND team.
I think Trent Hunter should be on the first team over Larry Asante, but I guess I'll have to be happy with a second-team selection. I think Asante had an easier job, since heplayed behind Suh and Crick, and just had to clean up on a lot of play. Hunter had to be a playmaker for us a lot more often, as attested by the 87 tackles he had on the season.
It is baffling to me that Sergio Kindle makes second team DL while Sam Acho did not. If you look at their play on the field or their statistics, Acho is obviously a better player, and this while playing on the strongside, so often facing double-teams.
It is nice to see that Uzoma Nwachukwu received some consideration for Offensive Freshman of the Year.

Big 12 All Conference Teams Announced, OT Nate Solder Selected to First Team

irish1611 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:12:41 -0000

The All-Big 12 Conference football teams and individual award winners have been announced by conference officials. All selections are made by the Big 12 head coaches, who are not allowed to vote for their own players.

Junior offensive tackle Nate Solder received the highest award on the Buffs squad, being named first team All Big 12 at tackle, a great accomplishment for the converted tight end. Solder brings a rare combination of size and speed to the mix and is currently looked at as being one of the players with a strong chance to make it in the NFL. He still has a lot to learn about the position but the athleticism is there.

Two other Buffs, TE Riar Geer and CB Cha'pelle Brown were named second team All Big 12. Rounding out the teams, these Colorado Buffaloes were named honorable mention: Jake Behrens, FB; Jalil Brown, DB; Benjamin Burney, DB; Marquez Herrod, DL; Scotty McKnight, WR; Ryan Miller, OL; Jeff Smart, LB; Jimmy Smith, DB; Rodney Stewart, RB.

The biggest surprise is WR Scotty McKnight not being named second team All Conference. He did make honorable mention but Kansas State WR Brandon Banks was named over McKnight. Banks, a talented return man, was named first team KR/PR so this selection over McKnight is very confusing considering it wasn't a charity place for a kick returner.

Scotty McKnight was sixth in the conference with 74.42 yards per game. McKnight was tied for fifth in receptions with 76, was sixth in yards at 893 and sixth in receptions per game at 6.33. Brandon Banks ranked 10th in receiving yards per game at 58.75, 10th in yards at 705 and ninth in receptions with 56. McKnight had six touchdowns to Banks' one.

Congrats to all of those Buffs who were named to the All-Conference teams

A Great Weekend for College Football, But Nebraska Is Ignored

Jon Johnston — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:00:15 -0000

by Harry Cabluck - AP

That Texas will beat Nebraska in the Big 12 title game is a foregone conclusion for most. That's a damned shame and a clear cut signal that no one's paid attention to Nebraska's defense.

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A great weekend for college football. Not only does Nebraska beat Colorado en route to the Big 12 title game, but a bunch of teams lost that were ranked above the Huskers. If the Huskers aren't ranked in the 15-18 range this week, you have to wonder what the hell the writes are thinking.

- Keep Voting For Suh For Heisman

Here. Let's face it, Suh is not going to win the Heisman. "The Best College Football Player" clearly has to be an offensive player. Don't let that discourage you - the point is to get him an invite to the presentation. If he can have a huge game against Texas in the Big 12 title game, maybe that'll be enough.

- Mark Mangino = Dead Man Walking

If you saw Mangino walking off the field after Kansas lost to Missouri, you know what I'm talking about. He was Zombie Mangino, walking slowly, eyes straight ahead, mouth agape - a man who'd just had his (very large) last meal.

He probably deserved that look, too. With around three minutes left, Gary Pinkel chose to punt, despite the fact that neither defense had stopped the other team. Kansas gets the ball near their own end zone, then they run two pass plays that result in incompletions. On third and long, Kansas tries a quarterback draw that ends with Todd Reesing getting caught for a safety.

The result - no time off the clock, points for Missouri, and the ball. KU's defense was true to form, and couldn't stop the Tigers. They get an easy field goal to win, Mangino is most likely fired, and Kansas ends at 5-7 after being picked by most people to win the Big 12 North.

No wonder Mangino looked like a zombie. (BTW, ESPN if you expect us to link to your videos, don't disable embedding.)

- Missouri's Danario Alexander Ignored

Alexander is not on the list for the Biletnikoff, the award given to college football's best receiver. Instead, that'll go to Golden Tate (Notre Dame), Jordan Shipley (Texas), or Freddie Barnes, the three finalists. Does Alexander belong? You tell me.

Player	G	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec./G	Yards/G
Danario Alexander	12	107	1644	15.36	13	8.92	137
Jordan Shipley	12	99	1292	13.05	13	8.25	107.67
Freddie Barnes	12	138	1551	11.24	16	11.5	129.25
Golden Tate	12	93	1496	16.09	15	7.75	124.67

- All Hail Texas

Did you hear Nebraska's name mentioned once on Saturday? I didn't. It's a foregone conclusion, nationally, that the Huskers will lose to Texas. I can understand the sentiment since our offense sucks, but apparently no one has much respect for our defense. Maybe that's just us - we haven't been that impressive. Maybe that's the Big 12 North's reputation (ala Nebraska not being ranked despite winning the North).

Or maybe it's the fact that college football media is all about offense. The concept that defense wins championships is evading people.

- Bowling For Nebraska

What bowl will we end up in? The Fiesta. Bold? No, a reaction to everyone writing us off. With our defense, we've been in every game except Texas Tech. The Longhorn offense isn't that special. Their defense, though, is damned good. Unfortunately for the ‘Horns, that'll be cancelled by the fact our offense sucks.

I'll work that logic out for you this week, I promise.

- Oklahoma State As Themselves

Thinking about a BCS bowl, Okie State? That had to be what you were doing this weekend. T. Boone can pour all the money he wants into Oklahoma State, but until Mike Gundy and the Cowboys win games like this, they'll continue to be what they've been throughout their history - second-best in Oklahoma. I don't know what it'll take to fire Gundy, but they're not going to get any better than they are now.

Nice try, ‘Pokes. Next up for you - being bypassed by Nebraska for a better bowl even if we lose to Texas because we have better travelling fans than you do.

- Sticking With Thanksgiving Theme

And giving thanks means being thankful that the Huskers no longer have to face these guys next season:

Missouri's Alexander and Derrick Washington. Kansas' Todd Ressing, Kerry Meier, and Dezmon Briscoe. Kansas State's Brandon Banks is moving on, as are Texas Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley, and Sergio Kindle. Oklahoma State loses Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Perrish Cox.

2010 doesn't look so bad already.

- Charlie Weis, gone.

I know, Notre Dame is not a Big 12 member, but in looking ahead, perhaps it's time to be more nationally focused.

Todd McShay stated that the rumored buyout for Weis is $18M. That's idiotic. If you were Brian Kelly, wouldn't you take the job just for the golden parachute? Maybe the government could step in here and cut Weis' bonus down. A university, even if private, should never be paying money like that to someone that's so miserably a fail.

- LSU Manages the Clock

Les Miles got this week right. He didn't screw up the end of the game, getting his field goal unit on the field with .09 left. His handshake with Bobby Petrino was a thing of beauty, IF they actually shook hands. More like two ships passing in the night with a fair amount of prejudice between them.

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

BracketCat — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:15 -0000

K-State's season might be done, but there's still another week left in the Big 12 regular season — starting with that amazing shootout last night between the Aggies and the Longhorns. Plus, I thought this would be a good chance to look at our season-ending numbers, so click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis.

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (37 | -6)

Passing Offense
K-State (104 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (80 | -5)

Scoring Offense
K-State (88 | -13)

Rushing Defense
K-State (19 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (81 | -6)

Total Defense
K-State (41 | +6)

Scoring Defense
K-State (48 | +11)

Net Punting
K-State (64 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (45 | +2)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (8 | -2)

Turnover Margin
K-State (26 | -7)

Pass Defense
K-State (79 | +11)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (88 | -10)

Analysis

Granted, these aren't 100-percent final statistics because there still are games to be played, but they're close enough for our purposes: Evaluating the improvement (or perhaps lack thereof) from last year's team.

Rushing offense went from 80th in the country in 2008 to 37th in 2009. Clearly, Bill Snyder understood more than Ron Prince that running the ball is important. Having Daniel Thomas didn't hurt, either.

Passing offense tumbled from 19th to 104th. Some dropoff was to be expected with Josh Freeman leaving for the NFL, but not that much. That is a stat we desperately need to, and I believe will, improve dramatically if we are to compete for the North title in 2010.

Total offense fell from 38th to 80th. Again, in sore need of overall improvement, but especially in the passing game.

Scoring offense dropped from 21st to 88th. Same story, different statistic. And it was made even worse by our goal-line flubs in the last two weeks, but not punching it in once we penetrated the red zone was a bugaboo all season.

Rushing defense jumped from 114th to 19th. Our defensive coaching staff deserves a huge shout-out, because that simply is stellar and is more than I thought was possible with just one year. If you ever doubt the power of coaching, just reflect on that stat.

Pass efficiency defense climbed from 93rd to 81st. Some improvement, but we can do better. Clearly, the Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri games didn't help us much here.

Total defense went from 114th to 41st. Way to go, Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning.

Scoring defense improved from a tie for 110th to 48th. Again, that's just remarkable improvement in just one year.

Net punting went from 108th to 64th. Ryan Doerr made a lot of difference this season.

Punt returns dropped from 33rd to 45th. This is one area I'd like to see improve next year, and I think putting either John Hubert or Tramaine Thompson back there will help a lot.

Kickoff returns actually improved from 25th to eighth. Hard to expect any improvement from a Top 25 ranking, but we did it. God, we're going to miss Brandon Banks.

Turnover margin flipped from 109th to 26th. If you're looking for a single stat that explains the turnaround from Big 12 cellar to North contention, this is it. Granted, there only was a one-game improvement in the win-loss record, but this is one case where that record does not tell the whole story. Turnover margin is not really something you can control, because luck plays a huge role in it, but a team that does all the little things right usually will find the ball bouncing its way more often than not. The 2009 Cats certainly did.

Pass defense went from 97th to 79th. Again, marginal improvement, but more should be expected in 2010.

Passing efficiency fell from 41st to 88th. Gotta work on that.

And now for a few bonus stats. First, sacks stayed about the same, from a tie for 85th in 2008 to 80th in 2009. Still, that speaks to some improvement given that we basically were without Brandon Harold for the whole year and had to field a defensive line assembled from equal parts Jeffrey Fitzgerald, converted offensive players, spit, glue and prayer.

Tackles for loss, meanwhile, dropped from a tie for 53rd to 82nd. That's a bit depressing, and it speaks to the inability to generate a consistent push all year. It's only going to get fixed with better recruiting and time, unfortunately.

Even worse, sacks allowed decreased from 30th to 72nd. Although the offensive line generally seemed to play better this year, this stat was not a good thing. Part of it is because Freeman was so damn hard to bring down and he did a good job of getting rid of the ball most of the time, and thus part of the blame lies at the feet of Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory. But the line still has room for dramatic improvement, and I trust that Charlie Dickey eventually will get them there.

Where does this leave us heading into 2010? Well, many things have to shake out in recruiting and player development before I start projecting too far forward, but I do want to say something about the coaching staff, since there's a chance we could see a few changes in spots. (Indeed, Mike Kent already has departed as strength coach, so it's clear Snyder is willing to let some people leave if he doesn't perceive that they performed up to his standards.)

I'd really hate to see any of the defensive coaches leave, as that unit's massive improvement speaks for itself. But I can't say the same for the offensive staff. There were times that I found the offensive play-calling this season downright mind-boggling, and if Del Miller chose to gracefully ride into retirement and give way to someone like Chuck Long or Jonathan Beasley, I don't think I would shed a tear.

Also, I saw very little, if any, improvement from the wide receivers this year. Michael Smith better continue to butter his bread with recruiting, because I really don't think he cuts the mustard as a position coach. I felt that way when he was rehired, and I really didn't see anything to change my mind all year.

Tight ends were an enigma because we never threw to them, and I don't think you can give much credit for Thomas' performance to any single coach because DT simply is a natural. Basically, Dickey is the only offensive coach who could make me cry by departing. Everyone else is fair game if Snyder wants them to be.

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

QB: Sammuel Lamur
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Lamark Brown, Brodrick Smith, Tramaine Thompson**
TE: Travis Tannahill
OL: Zach Hanson, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Adam Davis, Brandon Harold, Ray Kibble
LB: Antonio Felder, Kadero Terrell
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman (get well!), Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Obviously, Colt McCoy put himself right in the thick of the Heisman race with last night's inspired performance, and Texas survived Texas A&M's upset bid, 49-39.

For those keeping score, Texas is in overdrive of late, having scored 100 points in its last two games.

More of the same might be on tap throughout the week. Although Nebraska's defense is stout, the Colorado-Nebraska has a history of being a pretty high-scoring affair. Not to mention the recent news of Hawk's reincarnation, which I suppose might reinvigorate his team somewhat.

Oklahoma's defense is in disarray, with Oklahoma State's balanced offense coming into town — but Oklahoma's offense has played extremely well at home this season.

And absolutely no one will be surprised if the Border War turns into a defenseless shootout and Texas Tech puts up 50 on Baylor in Jerryworld.

So, this week could end up looking like a throwback to last season's shenanigans before it's all said and done.

Nebraska at Colorado (ABC)
Cornhuskers 31, Buffaloes 20

#11 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 19, Cowboys 18

Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City) (ABC)
Tigers 29, Jayhawks 24

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington) (FSN)
Red Raiders 33, Bears 21

Husker Report Card: Huskers 17, Kansas State 3

Husker Mike — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:03:03 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Roy Helu Jr. is tackled by Kansas State's Ulla Pomele. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

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A thing of beauty it was not, but a win is a win... and five of them are enough to claim the Big XII North championship trophy (or bedpan, as the Omaha World-Herald's Tom Shatel called it). And in a one-game conference championship game, it doesn't matter what your resume says. Just ask Texas in 1996, Texas A&M in 1998, Colorado in 2001, Kansas State in 2003, or Oklahoma in 2007; they all knocked teams out of the BCS title game in upsets that range from shocking (1996, 2003) to almost expected (2001 and 2007). So it doesn't matter how you get there, it just matters what you do when you get there.

That being said, there's still the need to grade yesterday's performance and prepare for Colorado on a short week. The Huskers have plenty of things to continue to work on; needless to say, I'm going to grade this performance harder than the Journal-Star's Brian Rosenthal.

QB: It was a "glass half-empty/full" performance depending on your perspective. He ran harder and more decisively than in any game to date, and managed the game fairly well overall. On the downside, his interception was a bad decision. His underthrows on some deep balls were a good conservative decision in my opinion. Throw the ball too far, and it's a loud noisy incompletion. Throw it a little short and let Niles Paul jump up and outmuscle the coverage for the ball; that's a battle he'll win most of the time. Take the likely 50 yard gain, or get greedy and go for the 70 yard killshot? This season, take the 50 yarder. My grade: B

IB: Oh it was so nice seeing Rex Burkhead back out on the field, but early on, he was used primarily as a decoy. Then they gave him the ball and the Wildcats came hard on the blitz and nailed him in the backfield. Roy Helu ran hard but likewise had trouble at times finding room. Helu could have kept a third quarter drive alive by catching a pass before turning upfield. Grade: B

WR: Niles Paul continues to step up his game, frequently as the only receiver in the game. We saw the other receivers play more than in the past few weeks, but other than a nice Brandon Kinnie catch, weren't very productive. And the lack of running room outside indicates the downfield blocking continues to be an issue. Nice to see Mike McNeill healthy enough to contribute. Grade: C

OL: At times it seemed there was more running room inside than outside; I credit that to the line play. Too many times, though, safeties burst through a gap unblocked to blow up a play, especially on that 14 yard sack of Zac Lee. Grade: B-

DL: Another quarterback with some mobility caused some issues with an aggressive pass rush. But when the game was on the line, Ndamukong Suh stepped up like the great players do. Why don't people even want to consider him for the Heisman Trophy. Mel Kiper says what everybody knows deep down inside: "Suh is the best player in college football." So what's the criteria for the Heisman Trophy anyway? "The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. Winners epitomize great ability combined with diligence, perseverance, and hard work." From my admittedly biased perspective, there is no other candidate even remotely close to Mr. Suh to meeting that criteria. Husker fans: VOTE now, VOTE tomorrow, then VOTE once (and only once) each and every day for the next two weeks. Grade: B+

LB: Some flashes of good play, but then a Wildcat would break open over the middle on a crossing pattern all alone. By the end of the game, Nebraska was playing quarters coverage...except rather than replace a defensive lineman, they removed the linebacker. True that was based mostly in part on K-State's need to dent the end zone twice in the waning minute, but it actually seemed to improve the defense. Grade: C-

Secondary: Last October, many Husker fans shook our head and yelled obscenities towards Larry Asante. Now look at him now; he's playing ferocious. This week, another two turnovers including the play of the day, forcing Keithen Valentine to cough up the football to keep the Wildcats out of the end zone. Even without Alfonzo Dennard, this group did well for the most part yesterday. Grade A

Special Teams: Again, normally I don't grade them but this week, they merit special attention. Adi Kunalic did an outstanding job on kickoffs, making sure Brandon Banks couldn't get going. I don't know how else to explain it, but Ndamukong Suh and his mates on the defensive line must be forcing kickers to change their routine. How else can you explain all of the missed kicks, even when Suh doesn't get his mitts on the ball? Another two misses yesterday. And finally, Alex Henery. First, it was a 45 yarder that bounced and seemingly turned right inside the five, as if Henery was controlling the ball with a remote control, going out at the 1. Then there was that 61 yard bomb that took another right turn, going out at the three yard line. Are you kidding me? Grade: A+

Overall Grade: B- It's a win, and a championship...but this team still can do a lot better to put it all together. If they do so, you never know what might happen.

Elsewhere in College Football

Oklahoma: F I've taken heat about propping up the Sooners in their 4 previous losses...but yesterday, they were taken behind the woodshed and then some.

Nike: F Somebody... Please enact a federal law banning Nike from the uniform business. My goodness, but those new "Pro-Combat" uniforms can be summarized in four letters: U G L Y. Remember, these are the idiots who have made Oregon the laughingstock of college football. Nebraska needs to sign a lifetime contract with adidas rather than risk letting Nike anywhere near the Husker athletic complex. Maybe the fabric is an improvement, but Herb Tarlek could design a better looking uniform than the Swoosh Crew.

LSU Clock Management: 0 Was Les Miles even paying attention there at the end of the game?

Taylor Nick: A+ Earlier this year, Texas Tech quarterback Taylor Potts seemed to lose the confidence of his teammates, and was replaced by Stephen Sheffield. The Blackshirts took Sheffield out, and Potts alternated with Seth Doege in recent weeks. This week, Potts reinvented himself as "Nick" and proceeded to burn the Sooners all afternoon.

Missouri 2nd half: A+ A few weeks ago, the Tigers were sleep walking through the 2nd half. Now they're sleepwalking through the first half and busting the game open down the stretch.

Poll

Rate the Huskers performance against the Kansas State Wildcats!

A Championship Performance!

3 votes

B Good win.

131 votes

C A whole lot of meh. Did enough to beat a non-bowl eligible team, I guess.

114 votes

D Not very dominant on either side of the ball.

2 votes

F NU wins the north by default; everybody else is simply even worse.

6 votes

256 votes | Poll has closed

Nebraska Ends Kansas State's Season And Wins the Big 12 North

Jon Johnston — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:50:05 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Yehaaaa!!!!! One Goal Realized!!!!!!!!!

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Nebraska won the Big 12 North with a 17-3 win over Kansas State last night. It won't be considered pretty or stylish, but if you've come to love defense (and if you're a Huskers fan, you'd better love defense) it was another masterful performance by the Blackshirts.

Kansas State took their opening drive, marched down the field like they were on fire and being aided by yet another personal foul penalty on Larry Asante (at least he got it out of the way early this game). The Wildcats stalled at the 31 and Josh Cherry kicked a 44-yard field goal. With the way the Wildcats looked on their first drive, it was hard to imagine those were the only points they'd score.

The Huskers responded with a field goal of their own, moving down the field with a mixture between Roy Helu's rushing and Zac Lee's passing. On the next possession the Wildcats gained a first down and after two consecutive Thomas rushes, but their drive stalled after Eric Hagg nailed quarterback Grant Gregory with a 14-yard sack. Doerr punted, giving the Huskers great field position at their own 43.

The Husker offense was aided by a Wildcat personal foul penalty, then Zac Lee found Mike McNeill all alone in the end zone. The score made it 10-3, where it would remain until the Huskers scored another touchdown on the opening possession of the third quarter. The offense was incredibly efficient, scoring on four plays that included a 47-yard to Niles Paul and a subsequent 14-yard touchdown run by Roy Helu.

The Wildcats fared well on their second half opening drive until running back Keithen Valentine fumbled near the goal line and Prince Amukamara recovered. The Huskers spent the rest of the game trying to run the ball, but gained only 35 yards in four possessions.

Ndamukong Suh did his best impersonation of the greatest college football player in the nation, taking over the game in the fourth quarter. He sacked Gregory twice (one being aided by Barry Turner when they turned Gregory into a quarterback sandwich), batted down a pass, and picked up four of his nine tackles.

Kansas State playmaker Brandon Banks was held in check all night. Adi Kunalic consistently kicked off into the end zone, and when Banks chose to bring it out, he was buried before he got to the 20-yard line. Only once did Banks seem to be a big-play threat, when he broke free for a 22-yard return in the third quarter, giving Kansas State the ball at the Nebraska 43-yard line.

Despite such great field position, the Wildcats gained only two yards on eight plays. They made it as far as the 32-yard line when linebacker Phillip Dillard sacked Gregory, forcing a fumble and driving the Wildcats back to the 41.

There was some ugly as the offense managed only 267 total yards. The Husker missed opportunities to score some more points when Lee missed a wide open McNeill in the end zone, and later threw an interception in the opposite end zone. There was some good, too, as the offense finished the game without a single penalty. The Huskers had three for the game, with Larry Asante picking up another personal foul penalty, Justin Blatchford was called for running in to the kicker, and Eric Hagg picked up a pass interference call. That's pretty darned good for a team that has been consistently hit with false starts and holding calls throughout the year.

Alex Henery once again showed his mastery of punting an opponent into a hole. In the second quarter, he booted a punt that went out of bounds at the KSU one-yard line. In the fourth, he had a booming 61-yard punt that went out of bounds at the Kansas State three. All told, Henery had six punts for a 45-yard average. That's a good day of work any way you look at it.

Let's not kid ourselves. The Huskers have plenty of football left. First, there's the derelicts from Boulder, and then there's that championship game against Texas, who clinched the Big 12 South with a 50-21 win over Kansas. There's still a chance to have an incredible season.

Five Questions With Corn Nation

TB — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:33:28 -0000

It's the Big 12 North Championship game today when K-State travels to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. To get a little more information on the Huskers from those who follow them most closely, I turned to the trio at Corn Nation for more info. Questions and answers are below.

BOTC: Roy Helu has looked a lot better in the last couple games. Is he finally healthy?

Mike: Healthier, perhaps. After the Oklahoma game, Helu talked about playing for the team instead of for himself, and while he didn't phrase it this way, he's decided to grit it out and play through the pain. If you watch him block in pass protection, it's obvious that his shoulder's no where near 100%. (Another good reason to leave a fullback and a tight end or two in on pass protection.) Helu left the field in Lawrence holding his arm again, and his arm was wrapped up in the post game press conference, so we're all hoping he didn't aggravate the issue last week.

JLew: Healthy yes? 100% no. Burkhead maybe back after a broken foot, he's been cleared to play so he may be able to take some of the load off Helu.

Corn Blight/Jon J: Something certainly changed. Bo Pelini and the rest of his staff talk about injuries the way people hide their crazy uncles, so the only real way to know someone's injured is if they're out for the season or carried off on a stretcher.

Helu is a big key to the Husker offense, although true freshman Rex Burkhead might be back for this game. He's missed several games due to a foot injury, and provided a huge lift to the offense earlier in the season.

BOTC: Last week, KU apparently unlocked some serious magic and kept the Husker d-line in check. What did they do?

Mike: Todd Reesing is the most experienced quarterback NU has faced this year, and it showed. He didn't wilt in the face of pressure. Carl Pelini dialed down the pressure as a result of some Reesing scrambles, and that limited the pressure after the first quarter. Considering that NU held KU to 0 first downs in the first quarter, I wonder if that might not have been a mistake.

JLew: NU changed the approach some, Pelini explains- "That's on me. I slowed them down. (Kansas) got out on a couple quarterback draws. I thought we could cover on the back end. I thought we needed to handle (KU quarterback Todd) Reesing with the front four, and when you're trying to handle six gaps with four guys, you got to be a little more controlled in your pass rush.

Even then KU didn't run the ball particularly well. The defense also seemed to come down after a lights out game against OU.

CB/Jon J: Kansas played a darned good game on offense. They switched between misdirection and running quarterback draws with Reesing, who did a good impersonation of his old playmaking self. The playcalling was just enough to confound the Husker defensive line.

BOTC: What has been Nebraska's biggest problem on offense this year?

Mike: I think there are two problems at the heart: (1) Injuries at I-back. Roy Helu has been banged up and Rex Burkhead has been out for over a month. Even Dontrayeveous Robinson got banged up late against Baylor. Nobody has that much depth to handle that rash of injuries and not be limited. (2) Lack of talent at wide receiver. We're learning just how good Nate Swift and Todd Peterson were last season now that they're gone. Their backups have failed miserably, and Nebraska has resorted to playing a juco transfer and a center fielder from the baseball team. Niles Paul is really the only playmaker at receiver, and while he's made some incredible plays, his two fumbles against Texas Tech and Iowa State changed those ballgames.

JLew: See Mike's answer, and I'll add finding an identity. NU started the year trying to run a West-coast spread offense, which they couldn't do against better teams with our talent at WR. Now NU seems to have settled into a heavy formation, I-Back, play-action, bootleg offense.

CB/Jon J: For me the biggest issue is the offensive line. They've played decently, but had way too many mistakes this season. Holding calls brought back a touchdown pass against Virginia Tech that would have won the game, personal foul penalties have cost the Huskers badly when deep in red zone territory, and numerous false starts. Dumb stuff, really. Most of the line is made up of Bill Callahan recruits so they're big and slow. The current coaching staff can only do so much to correct that problem.

BOTC: Pretend you're the coach for a minute (you have to wear an oversized sweatshirt and chew your gum really hard while you answer this question): Do you let Adi Kunalic kick it deep, banking on a touchback and risking that he misses and Brandon Banks gets a shot at a return, or do you squib it to keep it out of Banks' hands?

Mike: Start off trying to get it in the end zone. Then kick it out of bounds if you have to.

JLew: Hmmm predicted 10-15mph winds from the South. So half the time Adi should be able to clear the endzone. Other than that I think Pelini will challenge his special teams to stop Banks, and kick it deep.

CB/Jon J: Depends on the wind, really, what kind of weather hits Memorial Stadium Saturday night. If it's calm and the wind isn't swirling, I'm kicking it deep.

BOTC: Finally, most Husker fans are pretty confident that this game will be won if NU plays well, but what about that spread? Will the Huskers cover a 16.5-point spread?

Mike: I think they can; they've shown the ability to move the ball at times. The biggest concern to me is turnover margin; KSU is 2nd in the Big XII in this statistic, and Nebraska has had issues throughout Big XII play with ball security. If NU takes care of the ball, I think they can win this game handily. If KSU forces turnovers, all bets are off.

JLew: NU has had no turnovers in the OU and the KU games. Against Baylor Green the freshman QB had a pick 6. So the last couple of games NU has taken care of the ball pretty well. On the other hand, KSU's defense has been able to force some with some hard hits. I don't think I'd take the Huskers in this one. I wouldn't surprised if they covered, but I wouldn't bet on it.

CB/Jon J: The point spread is 16.5 points? Who the hell bets real money on this stuff, nutballs and addicts?

Thanks again to the guys from Corn Nation for answering our questions.

A Random Q&A About Kansas State Determines I Don't Miss The Hate THAT Much!

Jon Johnston — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:10:19 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

And you may ask yourself How do I work this? And you may ask yourself Where is that large automobile? And you may tell yourself This is not my beautiful house! And you may tell yourself This is not my beautiful wife! And then you may say to yourself My God! What have I done?

Browse more photos »

If you're looking for information on the Kansas State Wildcats, go no further than the site Bring on the Cats where TB is in charge. Mike came up with some reasonable football questions for him, while I asked him more existential questions about the state of things at Kansas State.

Mike: When did you realize that Kansas State realistically could contend for a Big XII North title this season?

TB: After the Colorado game. The results of the Texas Tech and Texas A&M games were too wild to really predict what was going on, and the win over Iowa State was so close that it wasn't particularly uplifting. But after we shut down Colorado and won even without a very good offensive effort, moving the conference record to 3-1 on the same day Nebraska lost to Iowa State, Mizzou lost to Texas, and KU lost to whomever it was they were playing, it started to click that hey, maybe we actually do have a shot at this thing.

Mike: I only saw some of the Missouri/Kansas State as I flipped from game to game. At the end of the game, Daniel Thomas was on the sideline even on the goal line. What was up with that?

TB: The game was in hand, so Bill Snyder probably wasn't going to risk an injury to his best player. Thomas has had a banged-up shoulder most of the season, and the coaches probably decided it wasn't worth it with Missouri so far ahead. We scored a touchdown on that drive, anyway, even if the officials didn't agree.

Mike: People are calling this K-State season "Miracle 2" as in the sequel to Bill Snyder's Miracle in Manhattan. Has Snyder done just that, pull a division contender out of thin air, or did Ron Prince leave a decent foundation after all?

TB: It can't be argued that Prince didn't recruit some talented players. Daniel Thomas, Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, and Attrail Snipes on offense are all fairly talented players. On defense, guys like Josh Moore, Jeffrey Fitzgerald and Tysyn Hartman are varying degrees of "solid." Prince never brought in top-of-the-line recruiting classes, and he filled them with way too many two-stars that he hoped would be diamonds in the rough, but he also brought in some athletes.

His biggest problem was that he never had anything resembling a decent coaching staff. The best assistant he ever had was Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay's current head coach), and he ran him off. The assistants we had the last two years had no business coaching on a Big 12 staff, and it showed. The results this year merely show what very good coaching can do.

CB/Jon J: Are most of the issues with KSU's Athletic Department straightened out? If not ,how long do you think the whole "Ron Prince secret contract rogue AD issue" will be haunting the university?

TB: Most of them are straightened out, because Bob Krause and Jon Wefald no longer work for K-State. There was a story in the paper this week noting that the Kansas Board of Regents, upon further investigation into the mess, found no wrongdoing on Bill Snyder's part.

The only thing that's left is how much money we'll end up paying Ron Prince. I'm not a betting man, but my guess is that case will end up settling out of court at some point. We are very happy with the current administration that is in place, with John Currie as athletic director and Kirk Schulz as university president.

CB/Jon J: Don't you miss the hatred we used to have between these teams?

TB: I have a feeling that if K-State manages a win this weekend, we'll see a lot of the hate come rushing back. I say that because I know Nebraska considered this division theirs to win this season, sort of like they do every season. If an old nemesis rises up and denies them that achievement, I foresee the old rivalry resurfacing rapidly.

Now, to answer the question, yes, I do miss it. Not because I necessarily love to hate Nebraska, but because it meant K-State was good. Back when Nebraska fans really hated K-State, it was because we were winning a few division titles and beating the Huskers with some consistency. It's been frustrating (although eerily predictable) watching all that Husker hatred get refocused on Missouri the last few years. We'd love nothing more than to have you hate us, just because we know precisely what it would take for you to hate us again.

CB/Jon J: I miss the hate.... I do. But I guess I don't hate it THAT much! Thanks, TB!

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Nebraska

BracketCat — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:15:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5 | 4-3) VS. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3 | 4-2)

The Big 12 North Championship
Nebraska Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, Neb.
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009 - 6:45 PM CST

ESPN

After 11 weeks of strife and struggle, it comes down to this: One game separates us from either glory or disappointment.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Corn Nation.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (89 of 144, 970 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (51 catches, 657 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (228 carries, 1,166 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Josh Cherry (11 of 17 FG made)

Passing
Zac Lee (136 of 227, 1,692 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Niles Paul (29 catches, 567 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Roy Helu Jr. (167 carries, 962 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Ndamukong Suh (56 tackles, 13 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (31 | -8) > NU (57)

Passing Offense
NU (82) > K-State (105 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (75 | +3) > NU (77)

Scoring Offense
NU (68) > K-State (75 | -6)

Rushing Defense
NU (11) > K-State (23 | -3)

Pass Efficiency Defense
NU (3) > K-State (75 | -15)

Total Defense
NU (10) > K-State (47 | -4)

Scoring Defense
NU (3) > K-State (59 | -14)

Net Punting
K-State (73 | +4) > NU (100)

Punt Returns
NU (40) > K-State (47 | -3)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (6 | -2) > NU (44)

Turnover Margin
K-State (19 | -13) > NU (59)

Pass Defense
NU (26) > K-State (90 | -7)

Passing Efficiency
NU (68) > K-State (78 | -2)

Analysis

There's no shading the fact that the numbers really don't favor us in this matchup — especially in light of the Wildcats' poor performance last Saturday.

To secure a win, K-State will have to press its advantage in a few key areas: rushing offense (against the No. 3 rushing defense in the country, though), total offense (our record is pretty clear — when we don't score 20, we don't win, with KU being the rare exception), net punting (don't be afraid to play the field-position game), kickoff returns (we've got to spring Brandon Banks loose at least once, because against that defense, good field position will be critical to scoring points), and turnover margin (simply put, we cannot turn it over like we did last week — duh).

So as I see it, the recipe for victory is no turnovers, finding a way to score by opening up the playbook and creating plays on special teams. Oh, yeah, did I mention don't turn it over?

I'm going to go ahead and join the rest of the nation in predicting a comfortable Nebraska win, in order to reclaim some of that reverse-jinx magic I had earlier in the season. We'll need all the help we can get, unfortunately.

At this point, though, I really don't care if we win or lose. Either way, it has been a successful season. I just want to see this team leave nothing on the field. This could be the end of their season — I want to see them play like it. And if Nebraska is to win, I want them to know they were in a dogfight first.

Prediction: Nebraska 21, Kansas State 8 (that's a safety and two field goals, BTW)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

The weekend kicked off in weird fashion with a turnover-plagued and mistake-filled exhibition of crap last night on ESPN, as Oklahoma State disinterestedly survived Colorado 31-28 at home.

Look for more of the same this weekend, as ours is the only game of real consequence.

Oklahoma and Texas Tech are playing for bowl position, and I'm not sure that will be enough for the normally mighty Sooners to avoid being upset in a city they have lost in before.

Iowa State at Missouri and Kansas at Texas both figure to be ho-hum wins by probably the most talented teams in their respective divisions.

That leaves Baylor at Texas A&M, the battle for the Big 12 South basement. Oh, yeah, give me some of that.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 20, Sooners 19

Iowa State at Missouri
Tigers 31, Cyclones 22

Baylor at Texas A&M
Aggies 31, Bears 27

Kansas at #3 Texas (ABC)
Longhorns 29, Jayhawks 6

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

---

Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.