SB Nation - Aubrey Quarles

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

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Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

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Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

Nestor — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:00:30 -0000

We will leave it to others for now to write and speculate about UCLA making a move in the Pac-10. Here on the home page of BN, we will stick to the mantra that has worked for us for years: keep our focus on our next opponent. With a record of 4-8 in 2008, we are not the kind of program that has the luxury to look ahead. Coming into this season the goal for Rick Neuheisel and his football team was to get into a bowl game with at least 6 regular season victories. With a 2-0 start and a win at a difficult place like the Neyland Stadium, it puts us in a must win situation this week in our last remaining non conference game before the start of a tough Pac-10 schedule.

Our next opponent – Kansas State Wildcats – are off to a very rough start in 2009. The Wildcats struggled to beat UMass at home (a team which just started playing D-1A ball this year) and then they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of 15-17. The takes from our SBN colleagues at Bring On The Cats (BTC) are understandably gloomy. Sportsline.com also put their recent loss "in perspective":

Let's put this one in perspective: Louisiana had not defeated a school from a BCS conference since Sept. 14, 1996, when Jake Delhomme led the Ragin' Cajuns to a 29-22 upset of No. 25 Texas A&M. Overall, the Cajuns were just 1-15 against teams from the Big 12 Conference.

That, however, was before Saturday's 17-15 victory over Kansas State in Lafayette.

"It's probably disheartening to a lot of people," coach Bill Snyder said of the loss, which dipped the Wildcats to 1-1. "I want our guys to be disappointed."

Still, if anyone wants to get all smug and disrespect the KSU, I’d suggest browsing through Tennessee blogs and message boards last week and revisit those bold predictions of the Volunteers cruising to a victory.

Last week it was our team that went into the opponent’s turf with nothing to lose. This week it will be the Kansas State Wildcats, who will be coming into the Rose Bowl as double digit underdogs, looking to sneak up with nothing to lose on a Bruin football team and fanbase feeling good about a SEC road win. Add to those factors we will most likely be breaking in a true freshman QB as a starter, a revamped OL which is improving but still working to gel as a unit, and all the inexperience at other offensive skill positions, Bruins will need to be on high alert. So with those toplines let’s get to some initial notes on Kansas Sate.

The story of these Wildcats begin with their head coach Bill Snyder who returned to Manhattan to clean up the mess left behind by inept regime of Ron Prince. If CRN’s return to UCLA is the "return of the prodigious son," Snyder’s return to Manhattan can be looked as "the Return Of the Godfather". Paul Meyerberg from the New York Times’ put Snyder’s record in perspective in his pre-season Wildcat preview:

The Wildcats went 137-445-18 from 1935-1988, the year before Snyder’s arrival. The program finished with only five winning seasons over this 54-year span: 1936, 1953-54, 1970 and 1982; that’s three fewer winning seasons than the program had winless seasons over that time. When Snyder arrived in late 1988, the program was mired in a streak of 27 consecutive games without a win (under Stan Parrish, the new coach at Ball State). While he did not immediately make K.S.U. into a winner – the Wildcats won 18 games in his first four seasons – the program took the next step forward in 1993, when it finished 9-3-1 and set a team record for points in a season (312). That year marked the first of 11 nine-win or better seasons in 12 years for the Wildcats, including a stretch from 1997 to 2003 of six 11-win seasons in seven years, making K-State only the second program in F.B.S. history to have such an extended streak of tremendous play. In 1998, an historic win over rival Nebraska pushed K-State to the top spot in the A.P. poll, the first time the team stood atop the college football landscape. That year – which ended with the Wildcats at No. 4 nationally – might have been the apex of the program, but Snyder continued to field annual conference and B.C.S. contenders. Kansas State won its first conference championship since 1934 in 2003, when it upset heavily favored and then-No. 1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. However, the team struggled in the following two seasons, finishing a combined 9-15, leading many to question whether Snyder could still coach at a high level. Hence Snyder’s decision after the 2004 season (mutual, by all accounts) to step down, leading K.S.U. to hire Prince.

Well Prince ran the program into the ground (just like Karl Dorrell). Luckily for KSU it took them three years to recognize that fact, so they brought in Synder to clean up the mess. Apparently he is kind of a character as noted by the bloggers at Barking Carnival (Texas Longhorns blog) in their hilarious 2009 preview of Kansas State. It’s pretty funny (not very politically correct) read, all though I am sure it’s not amusing to fans of KSU (and it includes the usual easy cheap shots at Neuheisel that seems to be SOP for fans of most Big-12 teams).

As for the team, the biggest challenge for Kansas State this season has been replacing quarterback Josh Freeman, who was a first round draft pick in this year’s NFL draft. Freeman left KSU after his junior season, setting the school’s holds career mark for passing yards (8,078), touchdowns (40), completions (663), attempts (1,121) and total offense (8,080). So far the QBs seeking to step up for Freeman have been struggling. From TB at BTC:

At least in my case, I think we undersold how important Josh Freeman was to this team. I know fans from other schools ran him down as all hype and no results, but we're seeing right now that he truly was about the only reason this program wasn't 2-10 the last two years.

I also think Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory are victims of the standard Freeman set. For all the knocks on Freeman, he had a cannon for an arm and was pretty accurate generally. Coffman and Gregory are being asked to learn an incredibly complicated offensive system on the fly. They also don't have a lot of experience; in Coffman's case, that's because he's been second-string to a first-round NFL pick for two years, and in Gregory's case it's because he was behind Matt Groethe at USF.

I imagine Coffman and Gregory’s struggle have the Wildcats frustrated because at least per the pre-season reviews they had some weapons to work with and were coming into the season with a decent offensive line:

Despite losing Murphy (Deon Murphy, who finished third on the team in receptions with 37, and second on the squad in receiving yards (555) and touchdowns (6)) and Pierce (Ernie Pierce, whose 15.7 yards per catch average (24 for 424 yards) led the team), the deepest position on the Kansas State offense is wide receiver. The team brings back the 2008 Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year in the senior Brandon Banks, who led the team in receptions (67), yards (1,049) and touchdowns (9) in his first season with the program. Banks, like Murphy before him, excels in the return game, as shown in his 27.7 yards per kick return average. He will be joined at receiver by the senior Aubrey Quarles (34 receptions for 407 yards) and the junior Lamark Brown (24 for 178). Brown spent much of his 2008 season at running back, leading the team in rushing (412 yards). Another weapon to watch in the passing game is the senior tight end Jeron Mastrud, who made 38 receptions for 455 yards a season ago. The senior Keithen Valentine is expected to assume the starting running back role, but the freshman Jarell Childs and the sophomore Logan Dold will also receive carries. The offensive line may have lost three starters, but the team does return a numbers of players with past starting experience. Leading the way is the senior Nick Stringer, a 2008 all-Big 12 honorable mention pick at left tackle. He brings 23 career starts into his final season, most among all Wildcat offensive linemen. Stringer and guard Eric Benoit are the only seniors on the current two-deep, so this will be a young group in 2009. Still, the line could be surprisingly strong this fall, especially if it gets good production from the plethora of sophomores battling for starting roles.

Brandon Banks is off to a slow start for the Wilcats per Sportsline.com. Banks had just three catches for 33 yards against Louisiana, after catching seven balls for 67 yards in the opening win over UMass. So, if I were the Bruin DBs, I’d keep a close eye on him. Meanwhile, DB Daniel Thomas is off to good start as he has put together back to back 100 yards rushing games (I know, I know ... look at the opponent) in his first two games (136 yards in 27 carries against Louisiana, which followed a 104 yard game against UMass).

I think it will be interesting to see how the Bruin defense comes out on Saturday. I am sure it’s not lost on them that despite their solid (some would call it outstanding) performance in last two weeks, they didn’t really come out and set a dominating tone in their first series. Especially as good as the performances have been from Rahim Moore, ATV, Reggie Carter, Brian Price, and the Bosworth brothers, we can use more focused performance from kids such as Akeem Ayers. Our defense still has room to grow to reach it full potential, and the team with a new quarterback will be really looking to them to set the tone on Saturday.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball Wildcats have some athletes on the defensive side with two solid ends on the frontline:

The team returns two solid ends in the sophomore Brandon Harold (45 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3 sacks), a 2008 freshman all-American, and the senior Eric Childs (52 tackles, 2.5 sacks). Harold is the most likely current Wildcat to continue the team’s recent tradition of standout defensive ends. In the middle, K.S.U. should be very excited about what the senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald can do for the team’s run defense (217.7 yards per game last fall). Fitzgerald, who sat out all of last fall after transferring in from Virginia, may be the best player on the entire defense.

The Wildcats return two starters at linebacker, including the sophomore Alex Hrebec. A former walk-on, Hrebec stuffed the stat sheet last fall with 68 tackles (4 for loss), 2.5 sacks and an interception. It’s rare enough to see a walk-on earn a starting role for a B.C.S.-conference program; it’s rarer still to see a walk-on start as a redshirt freshman. Joining him at linebacker is the senior Ulla Pomele (58 tackles, 7.5 for loss), a former JUCO transfer. K-State’s secondary is led by the junior Joshua Moore, a 2008 honorable mention all-Big 12 pick and a potential all-American this fall. Moore concluded his sophomore campaign first on the team in both tackles (76) and interceptions (3), illustrating his importance to the overall success of the defense. Moore is the best Wildcat cornerback since Terence Newman. He is joined in the secondary by three talented safeties: Chris Carney, Tysyn Hartman and Courtney Herndon.

Well not sure if Harold will be available for this weekend’s game as per their roster report on CBS he has been sitting out with an injury (along with DE Kadero Terrell and AR Aubrey Quarles). Perhaps the Kansas State fans who are lurking on BN this week, can provide us with a more up to date take on the injury situation. As for the other guys, Pete Fiutak from College Football News called Joshua Moore the best defensive player for KSU heading into this season.

I think the key here will be all about game management. We will need our quarterback to do what Prince did fairly effectively as a first year starter in his first two games: minimize mistakes and do what he can to keep the chains moving. This will be one of those games that will present Chow and his offense an opportunity to execute the strategy of picking up 4 yards or more per rushing attempts, and putting the offense in manageable situations on second and third downs. If we can combine that with continued stellar play from our special teams we will have a good chance to keep the momentum going heading into a bye week.

That’s what I have for now. I am looking forward to learning up about Kansas State, the same way we keep discussing Tennessee this past week. We will be reading up more on KSU during the week. If you have your own perspective to offer up wrt to Saturdays’ matchups fire the quick takes in the comment threads and the extended ones in FanPosts. That invitation goes out to all Kansas State fans who might be visiting BN for the first time. We are looking forward to chatting up football the same way we had fun going back and forth (in respectful and classy way) with the Volunteer fans from last game week. Football should always be about fun.

GO BRUINS.

K-State Slate: 8/25/09

TB — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:14:52 -0000

Click the jump for K-State sports news and notes.

The Beasley Matter

Still not much new on Michael Beasley. Apparently, he has checked into a rehab hospital in Houston..and that's about all we know.

Kevin Haskin at the TCJ has a column about Beasley's rehab. Basically, Haskin isn't convinced that more time at K-State would have helped Beasley an argument that Kevin Kietzman made on Between the Lines yesterday. Both sides have good points. I tend to side with Keitzman on this one. A 19-year-old probably isn't ready to live on his own in a city like Miami with millions of dollars in the bank and demands being made left and right. While I realize there's a culture of entitlement in college, too, look at what an extra few years in college did for Mario Chalmers. I know we're not supposed to say good things about Chalmers because he's a KU player, but he was the starting PG from day one in Miami, and doesn't have Dwyane Wade complaining about his maturity. Another year or two with Frank Martin as a father figure might have instilled a little more discipline and maturity in Beasley.

Curtis Kitchen of 810 WHB also chimes in with a blog post on Beasley's situation I urge you to read this one, because Kitchen gets to the heart of the matter. We can argue all day about whether the NBA's one-year rule is wrong or right, if it helps kids or if it doesn't, but we can't forget we have a kid battling depression here. That's the important issue right now. From all of us at BOTC, we're pulling for you, Michael.

Football

Austin Meek has a news story documenting Daniel Thomas' public debut in a Wildcat uniform which is exciting even if he was only taking handoffs at half speed. The story also notes that Prizell Brown is practicing at defensive end rather than tight end, the offensive and defensive lines have been shuffled due to injuries, and that Aubrey Quarles and Billy McClelland were missing in action.

Speaking of Thomas, Kitchen also has some news and notes from around the Big 12 Love this quote...

A source said the Wildcats are so enthralled with Thomas’ abilities that they are working on a play that would have Thomas line up at center, snap the ball to himself in shotgun formation, look for himself on a go route and hit himself in stride between two defenders. He’s that good.

With less than two weeks until the season starts, Bill Snyder has yet to name a starting QB, and apparently Grant Gregory is closing in on prohibitive favorite Carson Coffman. I don't doubt that may be true, but I'm not dismissing the possibility that this is one of Snyder's head games. In less pleasant quarterback news, backup Joseph Kassanavoid was arrested on battery charges. You all know the refrain to this one: The matter will be handled internally.

Kevin Haskin has a column featuring new offensive line coach Charlie Dickey. It must be a real beating to be an offensive linemen. Not only the physical punishment, but the fact that you get no glory for what you do and people don't consider you "skilled."

Volleyball

K-State's volleyball team enters the season ranked No. 22. A difficult early schedule awaits the Cats when they travel to Omaha to face ranked Big 10 opponents in Minnesota and Michigan in the AVCA Showcase. Despite being one of only four Big 12 teams ranked in the preseason top 25, the Cats were picked by Big 12 coaches to finish sixth in the league after losing five seniors, including four starters, from last season's squad. Let's hope the national pollsters are more accurate.

The Fourum

...is not quite back yet. Sorry for the tease. The K-State Collegian is back, but there's no Fourum just yet. Soon, however, we shall be delivered from this oasis and shall have our fill of completely pointless yet undeniably hilarious sound bites back.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

TB — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:29:46 -0000

Sorry this is really late from BOTC. I was out of town all last week and wasn't checking my email, so this got ignored. Anyway, CBS Sports and SB Nation's Colorado blog, The Ralphie Report, are this official conference preview. Here is BOTC's "outsider's" conference preview, intended to be a lot like something you'd find in a magazine.

Offense (Six Returning Starters)

Everything begins at the quarterback position, and K-State has a big hole to fill there after Josh Freeman left to become a first-round NFL draft pick. The favorite to replace him is junior Carson Coffman, and if you've followed Big 12 football recently, yes, he is the brother of former Missouri tight end Chase Coffman. Coffman was the starting QB for the first-team squad in the spring game, and played very well in completing 25 of 36 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, that was against the second-string defense, but it was a much more impressive performance than we had seen in prior spring games. All signs still point to Coffman being the starter in the first game against UMass, as it doesn't appear Grant Gregory, Collin Klein, or Joseph Kassanavoid have done anything to unseat the frontrunner.

Running back is a mystery position for the Cats this season, as it was one of many areas on the roster about which former coach Ron Prince apparently had no understanding when it came to roster management. Last year's leading rusher, Lamark Brown, is moving to wide receiver. Logan Dold, the second-leading rusher among running backs, moved to safety. The next running back, Keithen Valentine, has had two good spring games in a row, and almost nothing to show for it during the regular season. Last season, Valentine rushed for 129 yards total.

Snyder announced that heralded recruit Daniel Thomas will likely start the season at running back, which probably makes him the favorite to be the starter against UMass. Thomas is a dynamic athlete who also has the size -- 6'2", 227 lbs. -- to be among the biggest running backs we've had in a while.

Whatever production K-State is going to get from its wide receivers, it had better get it this season. The squad's best receivers are almost all seniors, which will leave a big hole in 2010. However, this group looks like one of the team's strengths, led by 2008's Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Brandon Banks. Banks is the undersized receiver with blazing speed, and the best home-run threat K-State has had since Darren Sproles started at running back.

Along with Banks, senior Attrail Snipes and junior Lamark Brown could add some depth and firepower at this position. Snipes didn't get much of a chance to play wide receiver last year, but he was a highly touted junior college recruit who could make an impact. As already mentioned, Brown has moved back to wide receiver after playing running back last season. He's another gifted athlete who could give opposing defenses headaches if he picks up the position quickly.

Tight end should be a position at which K-State is fairly solid this season. Senior Jeron Mastrud returns after a 2008 season in which he caught 38 passes for 435 yards and two touchdowns. Solid numbers for a tight end, and he's that reliable target you want a new quarterback to have. The backups at tight end are a bit of a question mark, with newcomers Prizell Brown (junior college transfer) and Travis Tannahill (freshman) being the most likely candidates to spell Mastrud.

One thing you can say about K-State's offensive line is that it has a lot of players with returning starts. Given that Prince liked to rotate players around, nobody can be absolutely sure who will start where and whether the prior experience will be much help, but at least this unit isn't trying to break in a bunch of true freshman and transfers. Nick Stringer anchors the line at left tackle, bringing 23 starts into 2009. Completing Coffman's blind-side protection on the left side will probably be Zach Kendall, who has five starts to his credit.

Wade Weibert and Trevor Viers will vie for the starting spot at center. Viers has seven starts to his credit, but Weibert was a top-50 junior college recruit who started with the first team during the spring game.

On the right side, Clyde Aufner probably gets the nod at right tackle, and Colten Freeze probably starts at guard. Aufner saw action in three games last year as a redshirt freshman, while Freeze had three starts last season as a redshirt freshman. Expect to see a lot of competition for these positions, with sophomore Kaleb Drinkgern and junior Kenny Mayfield pushing for playing time.

Defense (Eight Returning Starters)

To say that K-State's 2008 defense was putrid would be kind. Out of 119 FBS teams, K-State ranked 117 in total defense. So yeah, things are bad. But with a strong new coaching staff and several talented players returning, improvement is likely on this side of the ball in 2009. The real question is how much improvement will be made, and whether it will be enough to have a significant effect on the season.

Before Brandon Harold's injury in preseason practice, the defensive line looked to be the strength of the team. Harold was a freshman all-america last season, registering 45 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss last season, but we don't know how soon he'll return after he dinged up his knee in practice. Jeffrey Fitzgerald is likely to start at defensive tackle, although an offseason arrest on suspicion of DUI may temporarily derail those plans. Fitzgerald is a transfer from Virginia, and with the Cavaliers 137 tackles and 23.5 tackles for loss in 25 starts.

Other probable starters on the defensive line are Daniel Calvin at DT and Eric Childs at DE. Childs was honorable mention all-conference last season as a junior while making 11 starts and recording 52 tackles. Calvin is a big body in the middle at 6'3" and 310 lbs., but didn't have the type of season K-State was hoping for last season. Look for newcomer Kadero Terrell, a hybrid defensive end/linebacker to see some time at DE this season, too, if the spring game was any indication.

Linebacker looks to be one of K-State's weaker units this season after losing three players who had multiple starts last season. However, the defense is moving to a 4-2-5 alignment in an attempt to combat the Big 12's prolific spread offenses, so fewer linebackers will be required. One of the positions will be occupied by sophomore Alex Hrebec, who registered 68 tackles in only six starts last season. The other linebacker spot will be filled either by John Houlik or Ulla Pomele. Pomele had the better season last year and would be the choice of most K-State fans at this position.

In the secondary, it begins with cornerback Joshua Moore. In 2006, Moore was a freshman all-america before being injured late in the season. He returned to action in 2008 after redshirting the 2007 season as a result of apparent academic issues. Moore was one of the few bright spots on last season's atrocious defense, tallying 76 tackles, three interceptions and 12 passes broken up. The starter at the other cornerback position is still uncertain. Senior Billy McClellan is probably the leading candidate seeing action in 10 games last season.

The safeties will be expected to play a bigger role in Vic Koenning's and Chris Cosh's 4-2-5 scheme. Courtney Herndon will likely start at one of the safety positions after starting 10 games and recording 61 tackles last season. Chris Carney also had a solid season last year, with 53 tackles and five passes broken up in only four starts.

Defensive back will be a position to keep an eye on at K-State this season. Two players who have switched position, Logan Dold and Tysyn Hartman, could see action at DB this season. Also, newcomer Emmanuel Lamur is one of the more intriguing additions to the team. Lamur is a big defensive back at 6'4" and 214 lbs., and the coaches seem to be pretty high on him.

Special Teams

One of the hallmarks of a Bill Snyder-coached team is solid special teams play. Coincidentally, that was about the only thing Ron Prince's teams did consistently well. This season, K-State's special teams should be solid again. In all likelihood, Brandon Banks and Aubrey Quarles will continue to return kickoffs, and Banks averaged 27.7 yards per return in that duty last season. It's not clear right now who will return punts for K-State after last year's punt returner, Deon Murphy, left the team.

One position where K-State should see significant improvement this season is punter. Last season, with George Pierson and D.J. Fulhage splitting time, punting was a weakness, as the Cats finished 10th in the Big 12 in net punting. Panjandrum attended the spring game and was very impressed with newcomer Ryan Doerr, who is the likely starter this season.

At kicker, junior Josh Cherry is the likely starter despite seeing very limited action behind Brooks Rossman last season. Doerr is also listed as a kicker and was pretty solid at that position in high school, so it's possible Doerr could pull double duty.

Key Losses

Offense: Josh Freeman (QB), Deon Murphy (WR), Ernie Pierce (WR)

Defense: Ian Campbell (DE), Ray Cheatham (S), Reggie Walker (LB), Blair Irvin (S)

Special Teams: Brooks Rossman (K), Deon Murphy (PR)

Season Forecast

K-State's non-conference slate features two FCS teams, meaning the Wildcats will have to win seven games to reach bowl eligibility this season. While that's not impossible given the upgrade at every position on the coaching staff, it could be a bridge too far for a team that's 10-14 the last two seasons. In another interesting twist, K-State plays twelve games in twelve consecutive weeks, so it remains to be seen whether the lack of a bye week will hamper this team late in the season.

The Wildcats open up with a home game against UMass, dubbed by the athletic department as the "K-State Family Reunion" because it's Bill Snyder's first game back. Though Snyder's clubs are notoriously slow starters, the Wildcats should be able to handle an FCS team in the home opener. The next week, in a strange twist of scheduling, K-State travels to Lafayette, La., to play the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. Last season, UL nearly upset the Cats in Manhattan. The Cajuns lost their quarterback and running back to graduation, however, and as such probably won't have quite enough firepower for a K-State team that should be improved on defense under Koenning and Cosh.

On September 19th, Snyder will take his club to Pasadena, Calif., to meet up with an old nemesis from the Big 8 (and early Big 12) days in Rick Neuheisel. Of course, Neuheisel coaches UCLA now, not Colorado, and last season's UCLA team was, well, pretty bad. The combined record of the teams UCLA defeated was 12-37. Despite that, the smart money would be to bet on UCLA in this game. Snyder's teams usually do not play well in September, and that will probably be amplified this season because it's Snyder's first year on the job.

After two weeks on the road, K-State then returns home for another FCS opponent, Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles were 3-9 last season and shouldn't pose a threat to K-State, especially in Manhattan.

K-State opens Big 12 play with a neutral-site game against Iowa State at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State is breaking in a new head coach, Paul Rhoads, after two atrocious seasons under Gene Chizik. No game is a given for K-State this season, but last year's Wildcats defeated Iowa State in the last game of Prince's lame-duck tenure and, on a neutral field, should be able to topple the Cyclones again. After that, the going gets significantly more difficult, as K-State travels to Lubbock, Texas, to take on Captain Leach. Despite losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the Red Raiders are one of those programs that is more likely to reload than rebuild, and games in Lubbock are usually a nightmare for opposing teams.

A home date with Texas A&M awaits after K-State returns from the South Plains. In Snyder's first tenure, matchups with A&M were usually nightmares, but these aren't your older cousin's Aggies. Last season, K-State hammered A&M in College Station, and while the Aggies should be a little better this season, signs of significant improvement are absent. With K-State still breaking in a new system, this game will probably be a little closer than last season's meeting, but Snyder & Co. should still be able to pick up the win.

Another home date follows as Colorado comes to town the next week. The Buffs were one of the few programs -- Texas being the other -- that Prince's teams didn't completely suck against. Ol' Prince went 2-1 against Dan Hawkins in three tries, with the lone defeat being a one-point decision in Boulder last year. Colorado is the wildcard of the North, as most have expected them to be a lot better the last couple seasons than they actually were, and this is a game whose prediction could change based on how Colorado plays. Given that it's later in the season and the fact that I now live in the "Show-Me" state, I'm going to wait on Colorado to prove itself and call this a narrow win for K-State.

So if you're keeping score at home, my prognostications now have the Cats at 6-2. However, the schedule turns disastrous at this point, with the following games looming: @ Oklahoma, KU, Missouri, @ Nebraska. Obviously, the Oklahoma game can be written off as a loss at this point. Based on preseason pure roster talent, KU and Missouri are also likely losses for K-State, even at home. Nebraska is also among the favorites to win the North, so a game in Lincoln does not bode well for K-State to close the season. The season will turn on whether Snyder can find a win in this murderous finish. On the bright side, Snyder's clubs typically play their best ball in November, going 25-4 in November home games since 1990 (H/T, Phil Steele). If KU gets crushed by its South Division gauntlet and drops a surprise game against Colorado or Nebraska, the Cats may have a chance to pick up a win in a home rivalry game. Similarly, if Mizzou ends up rebuilding rather than reloading, that's a game the Cats could win if things are going well.

Predicted Order of Finish

Big 12 North

Nebraska

Missouri

K-State

Colorado

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Texas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas Tech

Baylor

Texas A&M

2009 Football Position Breakdowns: Wide Receiver

Panjandrum — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:00:16 -0000

View full size photo »

I'll start off by saying it; I think this is the deepest and most talented position group, from top to bottom, on the roster. I could be alone in that sentiment, but it's what I truly believe.

Four of the top six receivers return from last season, and they're headlined by the 2008 Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Brandon Banks. It's a senior dominated unit that brings experience and athleticism to the field, and even though the quarterback position is currently in question, one thing we do know is that whoever wins the job, he'll have a lot of able targets to look for downfield.

Click the jump to find out more about who we think will star in the wide receiver corps in 2009.

#83 Brandon Banks

Class: Senior
Height: 5-7
Weight: 150
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: Yes (2008: 9 games)
Honors: Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year (2008), All Big 12 Honorable Mention (2008), Biletnikoff Watch List (2009)
Official Bio

Analysis:

Overlook Brandon Banks at your own peril...even if it's not that hard to overlook him. Literally.

I'm obviously not the first to make light of Banks' short stature, but I'm also not the first to recognize how pivotal he is to the Wildcats' success either. Banks is so speedy (4.28 40-yard dash) and versatile that he can be used in a variety of different ways. He can take snaps at running back, he can return kicks and punts, and, oh yeah, he can also catch a little too.

Last year, banks caught the ball 67 times for 1,049 yards and 9 touchdowns. He also rushed the ball seven times for 126 yards (18.0 yards a carry!). Banks is so dangerous with the ball in his hands that he's the most dangerous player in a purple jersey this side of, dare I say, Darren Sproles.

Now, I'm not saying that Banks is as good as Sproles, but what I am saying is that Banks posesses the same kind of home run threat that Sproles did. Every single time Banks has the ball in his hands, he's a threat to take it to the house, much like Darren was. If K-State wants to have any shot at getting back to a bowl game this year, they're going to need to find as many ways as humanly possible to get the ball into #83's capable hands.

Of course, you don't have to take my word for it; the video evidence says it all.

Brandon Banks - cake eater (via fatty4ksu)

#81 Attrail Snipes

Class: Senior
Height: 6-1
Weight: 180
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

Analysis:

Snipes, a three-star prospect from Rivals.com and a four-star prospect on Scouts.com played in seven games last season. He was primarily used for special teams, and he caught one pass for 37 yards.

Let me repeat that. Snipes, a highly thought of JUCO recruit with offers from Hawaii (who he had committed to prior to switching his commitment to Kansas State), TCU, and Kentucky, played in seven games, mostly for punt coverage, and caught one ball last year. One. Uno. And, to really rub salt in the wound, it was during the last game of the year against Iowa State.

And people wonder why Ron Prince is now the SPECIAL TEAMS COORDINATOR AT VIRGINIA! THAT MORON WASTED AN ENTIRE YEAR OF ELIGIBILITY FOR SNIPES, A TALENTED, SPEEDY RECEIVER, SO HE COULD PARTICIPATE IN F*%$#@& PUNT COVERAGE!!!?! SON OF A %$#@&!!!!!!

Anyway, now that a competent coach has taken the reigns of the Wildcat program, Snipes may finally get his chance to shine. As mentioned before, Snipes has decent size and speed to burn. A high school track star, Snipes swept the 100, 200, and 400 meter events at the 3A track meet in the state of Washington as a senior. His 100 meter time (10.71) was the fastest for all classes in the state that year, and during his time at Bakersfield CC, he caught 95 passes for 1,371 yards with 19 touchdowns.

Tragically, the most significant thing Snipes was able to accomplish due to Prince's gross incompetence was nearly getting thrown out of the Colorado game for an early hit on the punt returner. Hopefully, in 2009, Snipes is able to finish his career with a bang.

Low Blow in Kansas State-Colorado game (via CO80202D)

#89 Aubrey Quarles

Class: Senior
Height: 5-11
Weight: 195
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: Yes (2008: 3 games)
Honors: Rivals.com 4-star prospect, PrepStar JUCO All-American, 1st Team JC Gridwire All-American (2006)
Official Bio

Analysis:

Quarles had the kind of season in 2008 that Snipes should have had. Quarles saw action in all twelve games last year, and he received three starts. He had 34 receptions and over 400+ yards of receiving with a touchdown. Granted, you would hope a highly thought of JUCO recruit would have a bigger impact (like Brandon Banks), but Quarles proved to be a valuable member of the offense last year. While not as speedy as Snipes or Banks, Qualres is a stocky receiver with good hands. He most likely won't be a star, but he is a steady, reliable weapon to use in various spread formations, and he may get additional reps if he proves to be more consistent than the competition.

#84 Matt Wykes

Class: Senior
Height: 6-2
Weight: 209
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

Analysis:

Wykes most likely won't get a lot of playing time this year, but he will probably get some reps during mop up time against lesser competition, and he'll probably be in the mix on special teams. A former standout receiver at Butler County Community College, Wykes walked on at KSU in 2007, redshirted, and caught three passes last year.

A walk-on wide receiver caught more passes than Attrail Snipes. The mind reels.

#7 Lamark Brown

Class: Junior
Height: 6-3
Weight: 225
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: Yes (2007: 1 start, 2008: 7 starts)
Honors: Rivals 100 - #71 (2007)
Official Bio

Analysis:

If you were to survey a slew of KSU (or non-KSU) fans, and you asked them who was the highest rated recruit K-State's signed in the last decade, most of them would probably say that it was Josh Freeman. If they did, they would be incorrect. The correct answer is "Lamark Brown".

If Freeman was the crown jewel of Prince's first recruiting class and the rock on which he built his "Church of Bullshit", Lamark Brown was the ultimate compliment. An uber-athletic athlete from the St. Louis area, he was projected at a number of different positions at the D1 level: running back, safety, linebacker, and wide receiver. His preference was wide receiver, and that's what Prince hoped for because he needed a dynamic playmaking threat to compliment his extremely talented quarterback.

There was just one small problem; of all of the positions Brown could play at the collegiate level, wide receiver was probably the one he needed to work at the most before he could reach his full potential. Of course, redshirting raw, talented players was something Prince had never heard of before, so the obvious thing to do, much like what he did with Attrail Snipes, is waste a f---ing year of eligibility playing Brown on special teams. During his freshman season, instead of redshirting Brown so he could learn behind a consummate professional and All-American in Jordy Nelson, Prince decided it would be best to let Brown play in eight games while he received minimal reps at wide receiver. At the end of his freshman season, the #71 ranked prep player in the entire country had caught three balls for 33 yards. If that wasn't maddening enough, he only had eight special teams tackles on the season.

(sigh)

After the departure of Nelson in 2007, a large vacuum appeared at the wide receiver position, and Brown looked to step in and fill the void to get the necessary playing time he desperately needed to develop his game. But, due to his absolute ineptitude in roster management, Ron Prince found himself in need of a running back, and the best option on the team happened to be Lamark Brown. So, being the true team player he is, Brown moved over to running back as a sophomore and gained 412 net rushing yards on the season, and he lost yet ANOTHER year to develop at the position he was recruited for.

So, here we are looking at the roster for 2009, and Lamark Brown, the highest ranked recruit Kansas State signed in over a decade, is now a junior, and he doesn't even have 1,000 all-purpose yards under his belt.

There aren't words to describe what I felt when I typed that. It's beyond stupid. Beyond surreal. The only thing that's this absurd is seeing Ron Prince in a cowboy hat during his coaches show and hearing him quote Jim Collins.

I don't want this to seem like an indictment on Lamark Brown. I've always been in this kid's corner, and personally, I think his career, or lack thereof, has been horribly mismanaged. I think he can be an exceptional receiver and offensive weapon if given the opportunity to develop at a position and receive quality instruction. There aren't many receivers out there that can match his size, strength, and speed. Last year, during the North Texas game, I saw Brown drag a tackler at least five yards while hopping on one leg. It's not a question of talent or effort with this young man as he exhibits exceptional amounts of both; it's a question of giving him opportunities to grow and shine, and I think this year, he'll have that. I look for him to have a breakout year in 2009, and hopefully it will be as cathartic for him as it will be for all of the fans who think he can be that game changing wide receiver we thought he could be when he was signed.

LaMark Touches the Ball - Kansas State Football (via KSUPoetWarrior)

#82 Adrian Hilburn

Class: Junior
Height: 6-1
Weight: 195
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

Analysis:

Nabbing Hilburn in 2008 was kind of a coup. After Bill Callahan was fired at Nebraska, Hilburn reopened his recruitment, and Prince swooped in and picked up the Top 50 JUCO player. Due to his ability to graduate in December and participate in the 2008 spring drills, it was thought that Hilburn could compete for a starting job last year. However, early in the season, he was injured, and he received a medical hardship.

Hilburn is another speedy receiver with good size. There isn't much else to say about him since we haven't seen much due to his injuries, but he will most likely have a spot in the rotation this year, so we'll know more as the season progresses.

#87 Sheldon Smith

Class: Junior
Height: 5-11
Weight: 180
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

Analysis:

Smith is a bit of an unknown. He was a late addition to the 2009 signing class, and he obviously didn't participate in spring drills. According to Rivals.com, he had another offer (Wyoming). Presumably, he will redshirt this season.

#86 Tramaine Thompson

Class: Freshman
Height: 5-8
Weight: 165
Previous Starter (Y/N)?: No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

Analysis:

If there's any true freshman (non-grayshirt) that's probably going to get playing time on the offensive side of the ball, it's Thompson. A highly sought after recruit from prep powerhouse, Jenks (OK), Thompson changed his commitment from Oregon State to Kansas State after Snyder was hired.

Basically, Thompson is considered to be a near clone to Brandon Banks. He obviously doesn't have the same kind of "Ludicrous Speed" gear that Banks does (only Frank Murphy was faster in a KSU uniform), but he is a little bulkier. He would benefit greatly from shadowing Banks all year long, and hopefully he gets some PT to go along with that learning experience.

Projected Depth Chart:

Starter(s): Banks, Snipes, Brown
Backup(s): Hilburn, Quarles, Thompson, Wykes

Justification:

Just to start off, I'm omitting third string because with wide outs, it's pointless. There will be so much mixing and matching between these players that unless there's significant injury, you probably won't see much meaningful time for anyone after Wykes.

Also, I listed three starters because I truly believe KSU will be using a lot of single back sets with three wide receivers. In that scenario, I can see Snipes or Brown working out on the edges with Banks in the slot, or you can move Banks to more of a flanker position so Brown can run some crossing patterns from the slot as well. There are a lot of different things you can do with this group because they're so varied in their talents and athleticism. Truth be told, you could probably still redshirt Thompson if the group stays healthy, but due to the number of seniors in this rotation (4), it might be best to get him some game experience now as opposed to breaking him in next year when he'll be needed.

Obviously, Banks will start because he's the most dynamic playmaker on the team. Snipes brings a lot of speed to the position, and Brown will bring physicality that the other receivers can't. The other receivers are good options, but the three listed as starters essentially have the most perceived athleticism and upside.

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Kansas State

Husker Mike — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 11:00:14 -0000

There are two groups of fans happy that Ron Price was fired by Kansas State: Wildcat fans and Longhorn fans. Inexplicably, Prince seemed to have Mack Brown's number, upsetting Texas both time the Wildcats faced Texas, including a 41-21 blowout in Austin that is remembered mostly for the Ron Prince Stomp. Against the rest of the Big XII, the Wilcats went 7-15 during the Prince era. So out of retirement comes the architect of the Miracle in Manhattan, Bill Snyder. While the program isn't as bad off as it was when Snyder first arrived at Kansas State, the Wildcats will be recovering from Prince's bizarre recruiting practices (19 JuCo's last season?) for years to come.

Josh Freeman took his NFL prototype body (6' 6", 248 lb) and NAIA prototype game (58% completion percentage last season) to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who decided to utilize (waste?) a first round draft pick on the Freeman project. The leading candidate to replace Freeman from last year is junior Carson Coffman, who looked much better than Freeman in last year's NU/KSU game. But Coffman looks more like a quarterback Snyder used in the early part of his K-State career (Chad May, Brian Kavanaugh) than in the later part (Michael Bishop, Ell Roberson) when the 'Cats challenged for the conference title. So enter juco transfer Daniel Thomas, who reminds some people of Michael Bishop. At least initially, he'll probably see time as a "Slash" player, taking snaps at running back, receiver, and quarterback.

Who else will play running back is unknown at this time either. Last year's top two returning rushers are changing positions. Junior Lamark Brown, who led the returning 'Cats with 412 yards and 5 touchdowns is returning to wide receiver, and sophomore Logan Dold is now a safety. So perhaps it's Thomas' job to lose after all; even Thomas tells the Kansas City Star that he views himself as a running back. If not Thomas, then it'll have to be senior Keithen Valentine almost by default.

The returning star on offense for Kansas State is senior wide receiver Brandon Banks, who earned Big XII offensive newcomer of the year honors last season. He caught 67 passes for 1049 yards and nine touchdowns last season in addition to the 98 yard kickoff return against the Huskers. Senior tight end Jeron Mastrud and senior wide receiver Aubrey Quarles return after 400 yard seasons last season.

Offensive line will be a huge concern. Senior left tackle Nick Stringer was honorable mention all-Big XII last season, and senior left guard Brock Unruh and sophomore right guard Colten Freeze were part-time starters last sason.

Eight starters return from the worst defense in the Big XII last season; you can decide if that's good or bad. Defensive ends Eric Childs and Brandon Harold did get honorable mention all-Big XII last season. Senior defensive tackle Jeffrey Fitzgerald transferred from Virginia, where he was a freshman all-American in 2006. In 2007, he had 73 tackles and 7 sacks for Virginia.

The Wildcats plan to run a 4-2-5 defense, with sophomore Alex Hrebec being counted on to build on 68 tackles last season. The secondary is lead by junior cornerback Joshua Moore, who earned honorable mention all-Big XII last season with 76 tackles, 12 pass breakups, and 3 interceptions. Senior safety Courtney Herndon added 61 tackles last season, while sophomore safety Tysyn Hartman switched from quarterback to safety last season, adding 49 tackles.

The cupboard isn't quite as empty in 2009 as it was twenty years ago, but at first glance, it doesn't look like the Cats will have the firepower to challenge for the top spots in the North division initially. 2009 is more about reversing the slide and reestablishing the program he built. Phil Steele picked Kansas State to finish in second in the north, but that seems to be based more on the favorable schedule than anything else. The only division foe the Wildcats play on the road is Nebraska, though the Wildcats will play Iowa State at Arrowhead in Kansas City. To get to bowl eligibility, the Wildcats will likely need to beat the UCLA on the road, the Cyclones, Texas A&M at home, and find a win against Kansas, Missouri, or at Texas Tech. Doable? Yes. But probably a stretch goal for this group.

Poll

What's your prediction when the Wildcats and Huskers meet in November?

Nebraska is Nebraska again, Kansas State is like Kansas State was pre-Snyder. Huskers name their score.

122 votes

Snyder rebuilds the 'Cats quickly, but the Huskers still pull out a home victory.

88 votes

Wildcats are back, narrowly pulling off the upset in Lincoln.

22 votes

If Bo Pelini thought Bill Snyder ran up the score in 2003, just wait until 2009.

22 votes

254 votes | Poll has closed

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Defensive Preseason Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at what Ron Prince left Bill Snyder on the offensive side of the ball (short answer: not much). Today we look at the defense. Clearly not only competent coaching, but downright good coaching alone will help this D out quite a bit, but is there talent here? Do Snyder and co-coordinators Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning have anything to work with?

As always, we start with a look back at 2008:

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 94.3 (#79)
Success Rate+: 96.6 (#77)
PPP+: 91.6 (#80)

Standard Downs S&P+: 96.1 (#72)
Passing Downs S&P+: 104.0 (#54)

Redzone S&P+: 96.1 (#72)

Q1 S&P+: 91.3 (#86)
Q2 S&P+: 96.5 (#68)
Q3 S&P+: 101.1 (#51)
Q4 S&P+: 105.6 (#47)

1st Down S&P+: 100.0 (#62)
2nd Down S&P+: 96.7 (#76)
3rd Down S&P+: 99.3 (#62)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 90.1 (#88)
Rushing SR+: 96.5 (#73)
Rushing PPP+: 82.3 (#98)

Standard Downs: 89.0 (#93)
Passing Downs: 91.6 (#78)

Redzone: 89.1 (#85)

Line Yards+: 89.7 (#100)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 96.6 (#71)
Passing SR+: 97.2 (#68)
Passing PPP+: 96.0 (#70)

Standard Downs: 102.3 (#54)
Passing Downs: 104.8 (#53)

Redzone: 105.3 (#45)

Sack Rate+: 119.7 (#35)

Well...their sack rate was pretty good. That's something. And they were above average in the fourth quarter! Granted, most of the time the game was long over by the fourth quarter (win or lose), but still. Also, while they certainly weren't great against the pass (71st in the country), they were pretty atrocious against the run (88th). As their Rushing PPP+ attests, they gave up far too many big plays in the run game, and it put them on their heels quite a bit.

If there's anything particularly good to report for KSU here, it's that they were at least competent in attack mode--when they were actually able to leverage teams into Passing Downs, they were slightly above average (104.0 Passing Downs S&P+).

And like the offense, they were worst on second downs. Still haven't figured out how that happens.

Defensive Line

Harold definitely passes the eyeball test.

2008 Unit Ranking: #73 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Brandon Harold (6'6, 264, So.)
DE Eric Childs (6'3, 238, Sr.)
DT Jeffrey Fitzgerald (6'4, 280, Sr.)
DT Daniel Calvin (6'3, 310, Sr.)
DE Grant Valentine (6'3, 240, Jr.)
DT Raphael Guidry (6'4, 267, So.)
DT Gabriel Crews (6'1, 310, Jr.)
DE Payton Kirk (6'6, 245, So.)

Hope, thy name is Brandon Harold. The true freshman from East St. Louis racked up 13.5 TFL/sacks in 2008 and forced a pair of fumbles. That alone wouldn't have been an all-conference level by any means, but for a true freshman it was pretty outstanding. At 6'6, 265, Harold passes the eyeball test, and if he improves even slightly as a sophomore, he should give Bill Snyder something to work with.

Despite Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

Rounding out the likely starting line are probably either Eric Childs (9.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF in 2008) or JUCO transfer Grant Valentine at end and either Daniel Calvin (11.5 tackles) or Raphael Guidry (8.0) at tackle. Calvin might get the nod here simply because he offers some really good size, which could in theory open things up for Fitzgerald a bit.

As I mentioned yesterday, I respect Snyder's abilities enough to assume that the front seven will be coached up to its highest possible level, and in Harold and Fitzgerald, and potentially Valentine or Calvin, there is some talent to work with here. As with some of the offense, though, the top of this depth chart is filled with seniors. Aside from Harold, they will be building things anew in 2010.

Linebackers

You're Bill Snyder's only hope, Alex Hrebec.

2008 Unit Ranking: #79 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Alex Hrebec (5'11, 238, So.)
Ulla Pomele (6'1, 228, Sr.)
John Houlik (5'11, 219, Sr.)
Hansen Sekona (6'0, 230, Sr.)
Craig Boswell (6'1, 186, Sr.)
Dahrnaz Tigner (6'2, 223, Jr.)

When I think of Bill Snyder (and Phil Bennett) defenses, I immediately think of linebackers. Mark Simoneau. Josh Buhl. Jeff Kelly. Terry Pierce. Hell, even Brandon Archer (or did he only play like an All-American against us?). The most shocking part of K-State's defensive decline under Ron Prince was the fact that the linebackers just disappeared. Seriously, name a K-State LB after Brandon Archer. You can't. I guess Ian Campbell sort of counts, but not really. And...KSU's LBs were 10th in the conference? Bill Snyder must be rolling over in his grave. Oh wait...nevermind.

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

Secondary

Can Joshua Moore cover two guys at once?

2008 Unit Ranking: #62 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Joshua Moore (5'11, 184, Jr.)
S Courtney Herndon (6'0, 211, Sr.)
S Tysyn Hartman (6'3, 207, So.)
CB Billy McClellan (5'8, 170, Sr.)
S Chris Carney (6'1, 190, Sr.)
CB Otis Johnson (5'10, 175, Sr.)
S Adrian Stryker (6'1, 206, Sr.)

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.

Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic. Otis Johnson is...MY MAN. Again, of the seven names I list above, five are seniors, but at least Moore and Hartman will be around in 2010 (assuming Moore doesn't go pro...I'll assume for now that he's not quite that good). The rest are relatively replaceable, though there will need to be some experience somewhere in 2010.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #105 Net Punting, #28 Punt Returns, #24 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Josh Cherry (6'1, 183, Jr.)
P D.J. Fulhage (5'9, 180, Jr.) - 33 punts, 32.2 net
KR - Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.) - 18 returns, 27.7 avg, 1 TD
PR - Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.) - 5 returns, 11.6 avg

Beyond linebackers, the other thing you probably think of in regard to Bill Snyder's best team was devastating special teams. Needless to say, ranking 105th in net punting is devastating, but in the wrong way. Good coaching will help the coverage units quite a bit, but more will be needed from D.J. Fulhage as well.

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Summary

As TB said in yesterday's comments, if you have basically the same cast of characters and infinitely better coaching, that suggests that you will be better. I cannot determine how much that applies to the offense, but I can definitely see how that applies to the defense. Between Harold, Hrebec, Moore, and maybe Hartman, there is some underclass talent and athleticism here. Combined with some decent seniors--Fitzgerald, Pomele, Herndon--I could see this defense improving a decent amount in 2009. In 2010, however, that may be a different story. But we're not talking about 2010 yet. If Snyder is able to execute at least a small turnaround and get K-State to six or seven wins, and lord knows they should at least get back to five with games against a rebuilding UL-Lafayette team (yes, they're rebuilding despite not being that great last year) and TWO 1-AA teams (UMass, Tennessee Tech), then it will likely be the defense making the biggest difference.

I can't escape the nagging feeling that K-State will upset either Kansas or Missouri (or, technically, both I guess) this year, simply because a) they'll be improved enough to throw in a scare against somebody, and a young Missouri team with 25-30 freshmen, RSFrs, or sophomores on the two-deep is always going to be a prime candidate for a scare, and b) Bill Snyder is a combined 8-1 against Gary Pinkel and Mark Mangino (5-0 against Pinkel). If they win one of those two games and hold serve at home against Texas A&M and Colorado...well, that's six wins even if they don't win a game on the road all year (aside from the baffling trip to Lafayette, LA, on September 12). I think almost all K-State fans would consider that a pretty damn good season, even though the overall talent level still has quite a way to go before Bill Snyder can think about sneaking in and stealing another North (or, of course, Big 12) title.

---

Projections on Friday.

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Offensive Preseason Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

Can Old Man Snyder get those kids off his lawn and get K-State back to the top of the North?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

As we round the home stretch with opponent previews, it's time to look west to Manhattan, where Bill Snyder looks to deliver Miracle #2 to central Kansas.

Bill Snyder has an interesting job ahead of him for 2009 and beyond. He enters a Big 12 North that is either much more balanced than it was 10 or 20 years ago (before it was the Big 12 North), or with a different balance of power, depending on how you view the long-term prospects of both Missouri and Kansas. When he brought Kansas State up from the ashes 20 years ago, Kansas and Missouri were basically defunct programs. Now that they're both on much less shaky footing two decades later, can Snyder deliver the talent necessary to get back atop the division? Is it possible for all three programs to coexist at a reasonably high level?

Even though Gary Pinkel never actually beat Bill Snyder on the field, it's been my theory for a while that Pinkel still played a major role in driving Snyder toward retirement through recruiting, particularly in the Kansas City area (thank you, Andy Hill). Missouri signed Chase Coffman and James Stigall in 2005, and Tony Temple, Chase Patton, and Jerrill Humphrey in 2004--three of these five players could have made a pretty significant impact in keeping the Wildcat program afloat in Snyder's last year or two, and while he would have stood a good chance at landing all of these guys in the mid- to late-1990s, they were signing with Missouri in the 2000s. And that's to say nothing of Kerry Meier (whose brother went to KSU), who signed with KU and could have helped as well.

Anyway, with a few years off to hop on the rejuvenation machine, Snyder faces a pretty tough task, particularly in 2009, where a mediocre-but-upperclass roster awaits his magic touch.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 192.3 (79th in the country, 9th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 419-430 (-11)
Conference Scoring Margin: 231-339 (-108)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #85 UL-Lafayette, #98 Texas A&M, #104 Iowa State, #117 North Texas, 1-AA Montana State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #65 Louisville, #82 Colorado

So...0-7 versus the Top 84 teams, 5-0 versus #85 and beyond. Overall ranking of #79. God bless the S&P+ rankings...they make things so clean and pretty sometimes.

Despite the fact that they came within one point of bowl eligibility (they lost to CU, 14-13), this really was a pretty dreadful K-State team. Their five non-Colorado conference losses were by 30 points (Texas Tech), 23 (Oklahoma), 31 (Kansas), 17 (Missouri...who led by 31 before Brandon Banks went off against Mizzou's scrubs...damn Ron Prince), and 28 (Nebraska). A once-proud program was left to feast on a relatively easy schedule to rack up five wins, but the overall talent level of this team simply wasn't very high. Ron Prince rode into Manhattan with the reputation of a master recruiter, but combined with Snyder's last couple of rather unimpressive recruiting classes, there just was not much to be excited about. The only truly fast guys (Banks and, to a lesser extent, Deon Murphy) weighed about as much as Miley Cyrus, their big guys weren't very good, and...well, their defense was pretty god-awful*. Snyder should pretty quickly be able to improve the latter of those three issues, but the other issues might take a while, especially since Murphy's no longer with the team, and they still don't appear to have a running back worth a damn.

* There was also the issue of Josh Freeman not being developed even 1% beyond the QB he was when he came to school in 2006--any improvement he made was from experience, not coaching...I mean, did they really not have anybody to help him with his footwork? It was atrocious! But I don't want to turn this preview into a big anti-Prince screed, so I left this as an asterisked issue.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bill Snyder
Record at K-State: 136-68-1 in 17 years (135-58-1 after the first year)

With as many great Snyder pieces as have come out this summer, I won't go into a lot of detail here. Snyder pulled off one of the bigger miracles college football has ever seen, dragging a program that had experienced four winning seasons in 50 years (none better than 6-5 since 1954) to nine wins or better in 10 of 11 years (11 wins or better in six of seven), to a Big 12 title in 2003, and to within a Sirr Parker of a national title game appearance in 1998. He produced a ridiculous amount of great assistant coaches, including (in alphabetical order) Phil Bennett, Bret Bielema, Dana Dimel, Jim Leavitt, Mark Mangino, Bob Stoops, Mike Stoops, and Brent Venables. There is no telling how much talent resides on his current staff--we'll know the answer soon enough--but his 17 years in Manhattan were unbelievably successful. You can't even call it a resurrection, because that suggests previous life. He built something out of nothing, and now he's coming back to do it again. I'm not particularly optimistic that he can succeed, at least not to previous levels, but there's no question in my mind that he can at least produce a winning program again, and after the Dark Years of Ron Prince, that's an improvement.

Alright, to the numbers!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 98.0 (#70)
Success Rate+: 95.2 (#78)
PPP+: 101.7 (#61)

Standard Downs S&P+: 96.6 (#78)
Passing Downs S&P+: 87.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 97.3 (#73)

Q1 S&P+: 106.6 (#54)
Q2 S&P+: 97.1 (#77)
Q3 S&P+: 81.7 (#110)
Q4 S&P+: 92.4 (#91)

1st Down S&P+: 95.9 (#80)
2nd Down S&P+: 81.4 (#115)
3rd Down S&P+: 102.8 (#57)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 94.2 (#86)
Rushing SR+: 101.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 85.6 (#99)

Standard Downs: 90.4 (#94)
Passing Downs: 85.5 (#100)

Redzone: 96.5 (#85)

Line Yards+: 100.6 (#62)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 101.5 (#58)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#89)
Passing PPP+: 113.6 (#39)

Standard Downs: 104.7 (#48)
Passing Downs: 87.2 (#95)

Redzone: 99.1 (#65)

Sack Rate+: 186.0 (#7)

The K-State rushing and passing games were almost complete opposites in 2008. The Wildcats were reasonably efficient (at least average) running the ball but had no explosiveness whatsoever. Meanwhile, the passing game was relatively explosive (39th in the country in PPP+) but inefficient and inconsistent. KSU wasn't good enough at any one thing to carry them through dicey games and really only played in 2-3 close games all year. Either they were more talented than their opponents (North Texas, Montana State, Iowa State, etc.), or they were overwhelmed by more athletic, more disciplined teams. You could honestly say the same thing about Missouri's 1999-2001 teams.

Other notes:

I wish I had a decade's worth of play-by-play data. I'd love to see if there were any other first-round quarterbacks who led offenses that ranked 95th or worse in most Passing Downs categories. You look at the top of the Passing Downs Passing S&P+ rankings, and you see most of the top QBs in college football--Mark Sanchez (1st), Daryl Clark (2nd), Colt McCoy (3rd), Sam Bradford (4th), Matthew Stafford (5th), Tim Tebow (6th), Jevan Snead (7th), Max Hall (10th), Zac Robinson (11th), Chase Daniel (12th). Josh Freeman's offense ranked between those of Idaho and Kent State. Not the most sparkling of company.
Interesting split--the K-State O-line was 62nd in run blocking and 7th in pass blocking. You figure Freeman does get some credit for his elusiveness and ability to take a hit and still get a throw off. Both of those things would help sack numbers. But still, that's a pretty big difference.
The K-State offense was mediocre in the first quarter, bad in the second, and pretty damn awful in the third and fourth. And they were one of the worst offenses in the country on second downs.

Quarterback

He's a Coffman--he's got to be pretty good, right?

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Carson Coffman (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Grant Gregory (6'1, 205, Sr.)
Daniel Thomas (6'2, 227, Jr.)
Joseph Kassanavoid (6'3, 239, RSFr.)
Collin Klein (6'5, 227, RSFr.)

But that's enough about Josh Freeman. It's time to talk about...well, whoever's going to be K-State's quarterback in 2009. The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

But the most likely candidate, it seems, is Carson Coffman, middle brother of the Coffman clan. After looking pretty iffy in scrub time against North Texas, he was downright decent in, well, scrub time, in conference play. Against the backups of Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, Coffman completed 13 of 17 passes for 179 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. You really can't get a good read for how those numbers translate to success, but he has racked up a bit of experience in the past two seasons, and, well, he's a Coffman. He's got to be pretty decent, right? Who knows what Coffman's ceiling is (or the ceiling of any of these guys, for that matter)? What's certain is that the winner of the QB battle will be taking the reins of a pretty different offense than what they were recruited to K-State to run.

Running Backs

Keithen Valentine's shining moment in 2008--a touchdown against North Texas

2008 Unit Ranking: #119 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected HB Depth Chart
Keithen Valentine (5'8, 193, Sr.)
Dee Bell (5'8, 177, So.)
Frank Delarue (5'8, 200, So.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jarell Childs (6'1, 220, RSFr.)
Jay Hanley (6'1, 235, RSFr.)

Keithen Valentine made news last year by coming out of nowhere to win the starting running back job at the beginning of the 2008 season. He didn't keep it very long--he rushed for a combined 118 yards in 31 carries against less-than-stalwart North Texas, Montana State and Louisville defenses--before he gave way to others. First, it was Lamark Brown, putting up an impressive 137 yards in 29 carries in a tight win over UL-Lafayette...and then managing just 287 yards in 88 carries (3.3 per carry) the rest of the way. Then something called a Logan Dold took over, carrying 21 times for 115 yards in a win over Texas A&M...and following that with 131 yards in 42 carries (3.1 per carry) the rest of the wa. Apparently Ron Prince would have found more success in the running game if just started a different guy each game, no matter the quality.

When describing the quality of the 2008 K-State RB corps, I have two items that tell the story: 1) as you see above, K-State had the 119th-ranked FBS RB corps. Yes, that's out of 120 teams. Only Washington's was worst. 2) The two guys who split the most carries for the Wildcats in 2008--Brown and Dold--are playing different positions in 2009 (Brown a WR, Dold a DB). What's left is Valentine and...well, a couple of other guys. You can't really gauge spring game stats for much, but here is a countdown of the number of rushes different players saw:

Valentine: 20 carries
Jarell Childs: 12
Frank Delarue: 7
Dee Bell: 4

Maybe that means something, maybe it doesn't, but if I had to guess, that's roughly the split you'll see during the season...at least at the start. And again...Valentine was unimpressive enough last year that he lost his starting job to two guys who weren't good enough to stay at running back. Something tells me Bill Snyder can't hit the recruiting trail hard enough--he's already locked down a commit from 4-star Wichita Northwest RB DeMarcus Robinson (who had an offer from Mizzou, for what it's worth). Unfortunately, Robinson's still going to be at Northwest this fall. Somebody's got to run the ball for K-State in 2009, but I'm not sure anybody's going to run it particularly well.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

K-State's best RB and WR could combine for an average of 5 feet, 7.5 inches, and 171 pounds. You're fun to watch, Brandon, but eat a steak. Or two.

2008 Unit Ranking: #48 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.)
Aubrey Quarles (5'11, 195, Sr.)
Lamark Brown (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Attrail Snipes (6'1, 180, Sr.)
Adrian Hilburn (6'1, 195, Jr.)
Matt Wykes (6'2, 209, Sr.)
Brice VIgnery (6'1, 204, Sr.)
Chase Mejia (5'10, 170, Jr.)
Russell Simons (6'1, 206, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Jeron Mastrud (6'6, 253, Sr.)
Jayson Cuba (6'2, 240, So.)
Gabe Gantz (6'6, 252, Jr.)

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

As a whole, this unit is low on proven quantities and low on years of eligibility. As you'll see, this is a recurring trend on this roster, thanks at least in part to Ron Prince signing something like 19 JUCOs in his final recruiting class. This is either a good or bad thing for Bill Snyder, depending on how you look at it--Snyder will get a chance to pretty quickly insert his own recruited players into the mix, but he'll also be looking at a youth movement in year #2 or #3, which isn't a favorable situation considering Old Man Snyder is...well, old, and probably isn't going to stay on the job for ten years. His time is relatively finite, and he's not going to have an experienced team of his recruits until about year #4 or #5.

Offensive Line

This is the only good Nick Stringer picture I could find.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
T Nick Stringer (6'6, 271, Sr.)
~~G Brock Unruh (6'6, 288, Sr.)~~
T Clyde Aufner (6'7, 288, So.)
G Colten Freeze (6'5, 287, So.)
C Zach Kendall (6'3, 287, Jr.)
G Eric Benoit (6'4, 286, Sr.)
T Trevor Viers (6'5, 284, Jr.)
G Kenneth Mayfield (6'4, 311, Jr.)
C Wade Weibert (6'4, 287, Jr.)
T Kaleb Drinkgern (6'7, 270, So.)
G Aaron Jackson (6'2, 310, RSFr.)

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, ~~and even though I could have sworn I read something about Brock Unruh being lost for the season, I can't find any such article now, so apparently I made it up~~ though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. ~~Those two~~ Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

Summary

Best-case scenario: the line congeals well, Carson Coffman (or whoever) looks confident, experienced and poised in the pocket, a solid receiver emerges alongside Brandon Banks. All of this opens up lanes for the running game. K-State is able to move the ball reasonably effectively, enough that a suddenly well-coached defense is able to look at least a smidge like the KSU defenses of old, and K-State wins a bunch of 24-20 type of games.

Worst-case scenario: the new QB stinks, the RBs are terrible, Banks is too little to get open consistently (and his supporting cast stinks), and a line whose stats were propped up by Josh Freeman's size and escapability isn't good enough to make anybody look better. K-State's offense is worse than Iowa State's and Colorado's, and the defense is still a year or two away from competence.

I apparently hold Bill Snyder high enough in regard that I continuously look for evidence that this team can be good. It's certainly possible that good coaching can produce at least a competent running game, and that Coffman-to-Banks becomes a big-time combination, but the odds aren't superb on that one. Chances are, K-State struggles a bit in Snyder's first year. There just isn't enough skill position talent to get things done in the Big 12.

Mizzou-KSU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:00:05 -0000

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

K-State (24)		Mizzou (41)
	% Close = 41.8%
34.6%	Field Position %	65.4%
59.5%	Leverage %	67.1%

	TOTAL
74	Plays	79
21.60	EqPts	35.52
32.4%	Success Rate	41.8%
0.29	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.45
.616	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.867

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
32	Plays	32
2.53	EqPts	13.78
25.0%	Success Rate	43.8%
0.08	PPP	0.43
0.329	S&P	0.868

	RUSHING
12.86	EqPts	17.05
38.7%	Success Rate	42.1%
0.41	PPP	0.45
0.802	S&P	0.870
2.84	Line Yards/carry	2.97

	PASSING
8.74	EqPts	18.47
27.9%	Success Rate	41.5%
0.20	PPP	0.45
0.483	S&P	0.865

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
40.9%	Success Rate	45.3%
0.42	PPP	0.56
0.830	S&P	1.014

	PASSING DOWNS
20.0%	Success Rate	34.6%
0.10	PPP	0.22
0.304	S&P	0.568

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
2.71	Points Lost	6.15
6.87	Points Given	2.41
9.58	Total T/O Pts	8.56
-1.02	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.02

0.315	Q1 S&P	0.824
0.320	Q2 S&P	1.145
0.931	Q3 S&P	0.453
1.163	Q4 S&P	1.039

0.771	1st Down S&P	1.008
0.545	2nd Down S&P	0.810
0.451	3rd Down S&P	0.535

The Mizzou offense sputtered all night, as Chase Daniel seemed to have misplaced what arm strength he has in the locker-room before the game. The defense, however, never gave K-State even a millisecond to breathe. These are about the best close-game defensive stats that you'll ever see from a Mizzou defense. Mizzou's 0.868 close-game S&P was a big disappointment considering the opponent, but K-State's 0.329 close-game S&P was amazingly low.
Mizzou's biggest defensive problems in '08: occasional Passing Down lapses, Passing PPP. K-State's Passing Downs S&P: 0.304. K-State's Passing PPP: 0.20. The fact that KSU only managed an overall 0.29 PPP despite a 93-yard run against the Mizzou scrubs tells you all you need to know, really. We're all quick to unleash fury when Mizzou's defense doesn't live up to standards (as against Baylor), but we should be just as quick to throw praise in their direction when they're this dominant. K-State's problem hasn't been offense this year (they don't have a great offense, but it's certainly been solid, especially in the passing game), but Mizzou completely and totally shut them down.
Mizzou was as big an overachiever as you could find in the first half of the season when it came to success on Passing Downs. But Chase Daniel has lost his mojo in this regard, and he knows it. We can win the North even if he doesn't rediscover the magic, but we sure as hell won't have a chance in the Big 12 title game without it.

And now, a review of last week's "key players"...

Key Players: Kansas State

WRs Deon Murphy and Aubrey Quarles

While Josh Freeman was in the game (i.e. while the game was still technically a game), Deon Murphy had 3 catches for 32 yards and 0.90 EqPts. Aubrey Quarles? A big fat goose egg. I mentioned that Banks was the #1 threat, and he would likely get the Carl Gettis Treatment, and he did indeed. With Freeman at QB, Banks had 7 catches...for 24 yards and a 28.5% success rate, which is just awful. Granted, Banks was still in the game late and predictably did much better against Mizzou's 2nd- and 3rd-stringers, scoring two TDs and putting up 103 yards in the last two minutes. Congrats for that, Brandon. FAIL.

QB Josh Freeman

I'll say this much: Freeman's instincts running the ball have improved. He rushed 13 times for 69 yards and a 54% success rate, infinitely better than the 32 yards (on 12 carries) and 17% success rate of Lamark Brown. However, he does not even appear to be a 1% better passer than he was when he stepped onto Faurot Field two years ago as a true freshman. His BTBS passing line: 29 pass attempts, 27.6% success rate, 4.02 EqPts (0.14 PPP), 0.415 S&P. That's horrid. SEMO's QB did better than that against Mizzou. EPIC FAIL.

DE Brandon Harold

Harold's line: 2.0 tackles (both successful), 2 personal foul penalties worth 30 yards and 0.93 EqPts. Yeah...that's a FAIL.

CB Joshua Moore

Moore's line: 6.0 tackles (3.0 successful...not bad for a CB), 1.5 tackles for loss. He didn't have one of KSU's INTs, but he played relatively well. I'll give him a MARGINAL PASS.

Key Players: Mizzou

LB Aaron O'Neal

Senior Day wasn't quite as big a production as I thought it would be, though seeing the pictures, it looks like it was as emotional as ever on the field. Chase Daniel and others weren't all that sharp, but it was an easy 41-10 (+14 junk points) win, and I'd say that alone makes it an EPIC PASS.

MU-KSU Summary

It would have been a lot more fun, I guess, if Mizzou had been clicking on all cylinders for their Faurot Field finale, but that's life. The fact that so many fans can be this annoyed by what was for all intents and purposes a 31-point conference win shows how far this program has come (and at the same time, how far K-State has fallen). Despite lackluster play at times, yesterday's BTBS rankings remind you that Mizzou still has the best defense and by far the best offense in the Big 12 North, and they should (SHOULD) rather easily win out and take the North title going away.

I know this isn't the season we had in mind (six more points against OSU, and we'd still be in the title hunt despite the Texas debacle), but as we cruise toward hopefully another 10-win season, we should still be thankful for just how much this staff and these players (particularly the senior class) have raised our expectations. The 20 wins we've put together in not even two full seasons represents the win output of the last three years of both Brad Smith and Corby Jones, and those were considered high marks for the program.

And beyond that...the battle cry is still firmly intact: 2003 KANSAS STATE. Chase Daniel has two more games to find his rhythm, and then it's time to make life complete hell for an opponent shooting for the BCS Championship game. Our dreams were shot a year ago, and while this isn't the scenario we dreamed of back in August, shooting somebody else's dreams and making the Fiesta Bowl would still be pretty nice, no?

Other Big 12 Games

Okla St (20)		Tech (56)
	% Close = 64.8%
32.8%	Field Position %	67.2%
71.0%	Leverage %	86.3%

	TOTAL
62	Plays	80
21.73	EqPts	46.65
48.4%	Success Rate	70.0%
0.35	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.58
0.834	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.283

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
34	Plays	58
11.73	EqPts	33.59
44.1%	Success Rate	65.5%
0.34	PPP	0.58
0.786	S&P	1.234

	RUSHING
13.80	EqPts	6.84
56.3%	Success Rate	60.0%
0.43	PPP	0.27
0.994	S&P	0.874
*4.09*	Line Yards/carry	2.78

	PASSING
7.93	EqPts	39.81
40.0%	Success Rate	74.6%
0.26	PPP	0.72
0.664	S&P	1.469

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
52.3%	Success Rate	65.2%
0.41	PPP	0.55
0.931	S&P	1.207

	PASSING DOWNS
38.9%	Success Rate	100.0%
0.21	PPP	0.76
0.599	S&P	1.763

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
5.35	Points Lost	5.13
3.05	Points Given	4.82
8.40	Total T/O Pts	9.95
+1.55	Turnover Pts Margin	-1.55

0.721	Q1 S&P	1.092
0.844	Q2 S&P	1.418
1.223	Q3 S&P	1.271
0.420	Q4 S&P	1.412

0.854	1st Down S&P	1.395
0.887	2nd Down S&P	1.140
0.661	3rd Down S&P	1.135

Most amazing stat of the year: Texas Tech was 11-for-11 on Passing Downs on Saturday night. ELEVEN FOR ELEVEN. ON PASSING DOWNS. Okie State beat Mizzou because they were actually able to shut Mizzou down in those opportunities, but Tech was having none of it. They could not be stopped.
Really, this one almost qualifies for second most amazing stat of the year: Tech only faced 11 Passing Downs in 80 plays. Their leverage rate of 86% is, I think, the highest I've seen. There's efficiency, and then there's efficiency.
This is the perfect example of how Tech's offense puts pressure on the other team's offense to succeed. OSU was able to run the ball very effectively (4.09 line yards per carry is quite high, and a 0.994 S&P is good), but they failed in the big-play moments early on, failure begot more failure, and suddenly they were down big. You have to hit the ground running against Tech, and you can't let up. I'll use my old "It's like playing Pete Sampras--he breaks your serve once, and you're toast" analogy here... only (*sniff*) I don't get to use it in reference to Mizzou anymore.

Kansas (35)		Nebraska (45)
	% Close = 93.5%
31.9%	Field Position %	68.1%
63.8%	Leverage %	68.6%

	TOTAL
69	Plays	70
29.83	EqPts	37.41
46.4%	Success Rate	54.3%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.53
0.896	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.077

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
60	Plays	70
24.07	EqPts	37.41
46.7%	Success Rate	54.3%
0.40	PPP	0.53
0.868	S&P	1.077

	RUSHING
10.23	EqPts	14.44
52.9%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.30	PPP	0.48
0.830	S&P	0.981
3.41	Line Yards/carry	3.14

	PASSING
19.60	EqPts	22.97
40.0%	Success Rate	57.5%
0.56	PPP	0.57
0.960	S&P	1.149

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
52.3%	Success Rate	58.3%
0.41	PPP	0.52
0.932	S&P	1.100

	PASSING DOWNS
36.0%	Success Rate	45.5%
0.47	PPP	0.57
0.833	S&P	1.028

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	3
1.18	Points Lost	9.13
3.84	Points Given	6.34
5.02	Total T/O Pts	15.47
*+10.45*	*Turnover Pts Margin*	*-10.45*

1.091	Q1 S&P	1.000
0.743	Q2 S&P	0.937
0.878	Q3 S&P	1.029
0.931	Q4 S&P	1.421

1.054	1st Down S&P	1.084
0.970	2nd Down S&P	0.936
0.388	3rd Down S&P	1.299

Turnovers almost did Nebraska in big-time here. Without turnovers, this was a blowout.
Really, this game came down to two things: success rates and 3rd downs. Both teams had equal big-play ability in the passing game, but KU's 40.0% success rate throwing the ball hurt them...and NU's 57.5% success rate passing allowed the Huskers to control the ball. That, and NU was beyond dominant on 3rd downs.
These pass defense numbers from KU have to have Colt McCoy and Chase Daniel licking their lips.
I'm glad we played Nebraska when we did. Not saying we couldn't still beat them, but there's no question that they're playing better and we're playing worse than we were on October 4.

OU (62)		ATM (28)
	% Close = 20.5%
62.1%	Field Position %	37.9%
63.4%	Leverage %	65.0%

	TOTAL
71	Plays	80
48.92	EqPts	18.56
47.9%	Success Rate	30.0%
0.69	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
1.168	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.532

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
25	Plays	6
22.15	EqPts	0.02
64.0%	Success Rate	16.7%
0.89	PPP	0.00
1.526	S&P	0.170

	RUSHING
24.66	EqPts	5.24
44.4%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.68	PPP	0.21
1.129	S&P	0.570
3.76	Line Yards/carry	1.82

	PASSING
24.26	EqPts	13.32
51.4%	Success Rate	27.3%
0.69	PPP	0.24
1.207	S&P	0.515

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
48.9%	Success Rate	32.7%
0.58	PPP	0.29
1.065	S&P	0.619

	PASSING DOWNS
46.2%	Success Rate	25.0%
0.89	PPP	0.12
1.347	S&P	0.370

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	4
0.00	Points Lost	6.58
0.00	Points Given	15.19
0.00	Total T/O Pts	21.77
*+21.77*	*Turnover Pts Margin*	*-21.77*

1.329	Q1 S&P	0.185
1.274	Q2 S&P	0.730
1.291	Q3 S&P	0.418
0.574	Q4 S&P	0.702

1.023	1st Down S&P	0.540
1.423	2nd Down S&P	0.401
1.147	3rd Down S&P	0.465

Once again, it's hard to get a read on how OU will respond to a close game because once again, they made ridiculously short work of an inferior opponent. A&M ran 6 plays, and the game was over.
Note to ATM: if you're going to give up a 30-point deficit in EqPts, it's not a good idea to also give up a 22-point deficit in turnover points. Good god...they're lucky to have only lost by 34. Lucky for them, OU can't cover kickoffs to save their lives, and ATM got some cheap points that way.

Baylor (21)		Texas (45)
	% Close = 63.2%
33.8%	Field Position %	66.2%
55.1%	Leverage %	77.4%

	TOTAL
49	Plays	84
17.97	EqPts	36.02
16.3%	Success Rate	52.4%
0.37	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.43
0.530	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.953

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
36	Plays	48
10.25	EqPts	25.09
16.7%	Success Rate	52.1%
0.28	PPP	0.52
0.451	S&P	1.044

	RUSHING
13.85	EqPts	11.88
26.9%	Success Rate	54.4%
0.53	PPP	0.26
0.802	S&P	0.802
2.54	Line Yards/carry	3.10

	PASSING
4.12	EqPts	24.14
4.4%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.18	PPP	0.64
0.223	S&P	1.135

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
25.9%	Success Rate	52.3%
0.60	PPP	0.35
0.861	S&P	0.876

	PASSING DOWNS
4.6%	Success Rate	52.6%
0.08	PPP	0.69
0.125	S&P	1.214

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
1.31	Points Lost	3.38
7.00	Points Given	7.67
8.31	Total T/O Pts	11.05
+2.74	Turnover Pts Margin	-2.74

0.316	Q1 S&P	1.030
0.612	Q2 S&P	0.862
0.415	Q3 S&P	1.154
1.072	Q4 S&P	0.699

0.404	1st Down S&P	0.983
0.574	2nd Down S&P	0.946
0.555	3rd Down S&P	0.861

Power to Baylor for figuring out how to keep this one relatively respectable without being able to complete a worthwhile pass (other than the one to Kendall Wright to tie the game at 14-14...that was literally their only even medium-sized pass play. It's actually pretty hard to manage a 4.4% passing success rate. You'd have figured they'd have gotten 2-3 decent passes just by accident.
The 4.6% success rate on Passing Downs is almost as impressive.
Not too sure what else to say about this one. Robert Griffin is to the point where he's as good as he's going to be this year. Mizzou's defense isn't as fast as Texas', and Baylor moved the ball with the thinnest of margins for error against the Tigers last weekend. Against UT, the short passing just isn't going to work.

Iowa St (24)		Colorado (28)
	% Close = 100.0%
49.3%	Field Position %	50.7%
71.8%	Leverage %	72.6%

	TOTAL
71	Plays	73
26.17	EqPts	39.98
40.9%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.37	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.55
0.777	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.000

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
15.61	EqPts	15.64
40.5%	Success Rate	41.9%
0.37	PPP	0.50
0.777	S&P	0.924
2.86	Line Yards/carry	3.17

	PASSING
10.56	EqPts	24.35
41.4%	Success Rate	47.6%
0.36	PPP	0.58
0.778	S&P	1.056

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
49.0%	Success Rate	49.1%
0.43	PPP	0.67
0.920	S&P	1.158

	PASSING DOWNS
20.0%	Success Rate	35.0%
0.21	PPP	0.23
0.412	S&P	0.580

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	1
0.00	Points Lost	4.41
0.00	Points Given	1.58
0.00	Total T/O Pts	5.99
+5.99	Turnover Pts Margin	-5.99

0.524	Q1 S&P	0.708
0.710	Q2 S&P	0.430
0.917	Q3 S&P	1.238
0.962	Q4 S&P	1.347

0.944	1st Down S&P	0.986
0.669	2nd Down S&P	0.832
0.540	3rd Down S&P	1.058

I am still having trouble believing that this game was on (regular cable) TV, and KU-NU was not. Not sure the thought process on that one, but I can say that the first half of this game was horrendous. Lucky for CU, Cody Nolte-Hawkins is good for at least one rescue per season. Against the Cyclones' putrid secondary, Coach's Son Hawkins was able to sub in in the second half and move the ball at will after Tyler "Don't Call Me Taylor" Hansen was unable to find a rhythm in the first 30 minutes.
This was another game that came down to third downs, and the fact that CU managed to almost lose this game despite dominating 3rd downs to this level is just absurd. Every single one of Colorado's six penalties, however, seemed to come at ridiculously inopportune times (including a Q2 ISU drive where CU ran into or roughed the kicker not once, but twice...), and ISU was able to hold on to the lead for dear life much longer than they deserved.
If Chase Daniel doesn't rediscover his rhythm at Jack Trice Stadium this weekend, he may never find it.

Poll

Who was the statistical MVP from Mizzou-Kansas State?

Jeremy Maclin (16.26 EqPts, 2.105 S&P)

63 votes

Derrick Washington (a tempo-setting 5.31 EqPts rushing, 5.87 overall)

0 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (8.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, an outstanding 0.736 Defensive S&P)

0 votes

Carl Gettis (4.5 tackles, a complete shutdown of Brandon Banks)

6 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Aubrey Quarles

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

K-State Slate: 8/25/09

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

2009 Football Position Breakdowns: Wide Receiver

#83 Brandon Banks

#81 Attrail Snipes

#89 Aubrey Quarles

#84 Matt Wykes

#7 Lamark Brown

#82 Adrian Hilburn

#87 Sheldon Smith

#86 Tramaine Thompson

Projected Depth Chart:

2009 Husker Football Opponent Preview: Kansas State

What's your prediction when the Wildcats and Huskers meet in November?

Nebraska is Nebraska again, Kansas State is like Kansas State was pre-Snyder. Huskers name their score.

Snyder rebuilds the 'Cats quickly, but the Huskers still pull out a home victory.

Wildcats are back, narrowly pulling off the upset in Lincoln.

If Bo Pelini thought Bill Snyder ran up the score in 2003, just wait until 2009.

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Defensive Preseason Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Offensive Preseason Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Mizzou-KSU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

K-State(24)

Mizzou(41)

Key Players: Kansas State

Key Players: Mizzou

MU-KSU Summary

Other Big 12 Games

Okla St(20)

Tech(56)

Kansas(35)

Nebraska(45)

OU(62)

ATM(28)

Baylor(21)

Texas(45)

Iowa St(24)

Colorado(28)

Who was the statistical MVP from Mizzou-Kansas State?

Jeremy Maclin (16.26 EqPts, 2.105 S&P)

Derrick Washington (a tempo-setting 5.31 EqPts rushing, 5.87 overall)

Sean Weatherspoon (8.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, an outstanding 0.736 Defensive S&P)

Carl Gettis (4.5 tackles, a complete shutdown of Brandon Banks)

K-State
(24)

Mizzou
(41)

Okla St
(20)

Tech
(56)

Kansas
(35)

Nebraska
(45)

OU
(62)

ATM
(28)

Baylor
(21)

Texas
(45)

Iowa St
(24)

Colorado
(28)