SB Nation - Brandon Harold

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

BracketCat — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:15 -0000

K-State's season might be done, but there's still another week left in the Big 12 regular season — starting with that amazing shootout last night between the Aggies and the Longhorns. Plus, I thought this would be a good chance to look at our season-ending numbers, so click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis.

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (37 | -6)

Passing Offense
K-State (104 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (80 | -5)

Scoring Offense
K-State (88 | -13)

Rushing Defense
K-State (19 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (81 | -6)

Total Defense
K-State (41 | +6)

Scoring Defense
K-State (48 | +11)

Net Punting
K-State (64 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (45 | +2)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (8 | -2)

Turnover Margin
K-State (26 | -7)

Pass Defense
K-State (79 | +11)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (88 | -10)

Analysis

Granted, these aren't 100-percent final statistics because there still are games to be played, but they're close enough for our purposes: Evaluating the improvement (or perhaps lack thereof) from last year's team.

Rushing offense went from 80th in the country in 2008 to 37th in 2009. Clearly, Bill Snyder understood more than Ron Prince that running the ball is important. Having Daniel Thomas didn't hurt, either.

Passing offense tumbled from 19th to 104th. Some dropoff was to be expected with Josh Freeman leaving for the NFL, but not that much. That is a stat we desperately need to, and I believe will, improve dramatically if we are to compete for the North title in 2010.

Total offense fell from 38th to 80th. Again, in sore need of overall improvement, but especially in the passing game.

Scoring offense dropped from 21st to 88th. Same story, different statistic. And it was made even worse by our goal-line flubs in the last two weeks, but not punching it in once we penetrated the red zone was a bugaboo all season.

Rushing defense jumped from 114th to 19th. Our defensive coaching staff deserves a huge shout-out, because that simply is stellar and is more than I thought was possible with just one year. If you ever doubt the power of coaching, just reflect on that stat.

Pass efficiency defense climbed from 93rd to 81st. Some improvement, but we can do better. Clearly, the Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri games didn't help us much here.

Total defense went from 114th to 41st. Way to go, Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning.

Scoring defense improved from a tie for 110th to 48th. Again, that's just remarkable improvement in just one year.

Net punting went from 108th to 64th. Ryan Doerr made a lot of difference this season.

Punt returns dropped from 33rd to 45th. This is one area I'd like to see improve next year, and I think putting either John Hubert or Tramaine Thompson back there will help a lot.

Kickoff returns actually improved from 25th to eighth. Hard to expect any improvement from a Top 25 ranking, but we did it. God, we're going to miss Brandon Banks.

Turnover margin flipped from 109th to 26th. If you're looking for a single stat that explains the turnaround from Big 12 cellar to North contention, this is it. Granted, there only was a one-game improvement in the win-loss record, but this is one case where that record does not tell the whole story. Turnover margin is not really something you can control, because luck plays a huge role in it, but a team that does all the little things right usually will find the ball bouncing its way more often than not. The 2009 Cats certainly did.

Pass defense went from 97th to 79th. Again, marginal improvement, but more should be expected in 2010.

Passing efficiency fell from 41st to 88th. Gotta work on that.

And now for a few bonus stats. First, sacks stayed about the same, from a tie for 85th in 2008 to 80th in 2009. Still, that speaks to some improvement given that we basically were without Brandon Harold for the whole year and had to field a defensive line assembled from equal parts Jeffrey Fitzgerald, converted offensive players, spit, glue and prayer.

Tackles for loss, meanwhile, dropped from a tie for 53rd to 82nd. That's a bit depressing, and it speaks to the inability to generate a consistent push all year. It's only going to get fixed with better recruiting and time, unfortunately.

Even worse, sacks allowed decreased from 30th to 72nd. Although the offensive line generally seemed to play better this year, this stat was not a good thing. Part of it is because Freeman was so damn hard to bring down and he did a good job of getting rid of the ball most of the time, and thus part of the blame lies at the feet of Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory. But the line still has room for dramatic improvement, and I trust that Charlie Dickey eventually will get them there.

Where does this leave us heading into 2010? Well, many things have to shake out in recruiting and player development before I start projecting too far forward, but I do want to say something about the coaching staff, since there's a chance we could see a few changes in spots. (Indeed, Mike Kent already has departed as strength coach, so it's clear Snyder is willing to let some people leave if he doesn't perceive that they performed up to his standards.)

I'd really hate to see any of the defensive coaches leave, as that unit's massive improvement speaks for itself. But I can't say the same for the offensive staff. There were times that I found the offensive play-calling this season downright mind-boggling, and if Del Miller chose to gracefully ride into retirement and give way to someone like Chuck Long or Jonathan Beasley, I don't think I would shed a tear.

Also, I saw very little, if any, improvement from the wide receivers this year. Michael Smith better continue to butter his bread with recruiting, because I really don't think he cuts the mustard as a position coach. I felt that way when he was rehired, and I really didn't see anything to change my mind all year.

Tight ends were an enigma because we never threw to them, and I don't think you can give much credit for Thomas' performance to any single coach because DT simply is a natural. Basically, Dickey is the only offensive coach who could make me cry by departing. Everyone else is fair game if Snyder wants them to be.

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

QB: Sammuel Lamur
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Lamark Brown, Brodrick Smith, Tramaine Thompson**
TE: Travis Tannahill
OL: Zach Hanson, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Adam Davis, Brandon Harold, Ray Kibble
LB: Antonio Felder, Kadero Terrell
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman (get well!), Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Obviously, Colt McCoy put himself right in the thick of the Heisman race with last night's inspired performance, and Texas survived Texas A&M's upset bid, 49-39.

For those keeping score, Texas is in overdrive of late, having scored 100 points in its last two games.

More of the same might be on tap throughout the week. Although Nebraska's defense is stout, the Colorado-Nebraska has a history of being a pretty high-scoring affair. Not to mention the recent news of Hawk's reincarnation, which I suppose might reinvigorate his team somewhat.

Oklahoma's defense is in disarray, with Oklahoma State's balanced offense coming into town — but Oklahoma's offense has played extremely well at home this season.

And absolutely no one will be surprised if the Border War turns into a defenseless shootout and Texas Tech puts up 50 on Baylor in Jerryworld.

So, this week could end up looking like a throwback to last season's shenanigans before it's all said and done.

Nebraska at Colorado (ABC)
Cornhuskers 31, Buffaloes 20

#11 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 19, Cowboys 18

Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City) (ABC)
Tigers 29, Jayhawks 24

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington) (FSN)
Red Raiders 33, Bears 21

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

---

Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

KICKING THE TIRES: Texas A&M University

BracketCat — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:30:17 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (3-3 | 1-1) VS. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2 | 0-1)

Harley Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FCS

Strike up "The Cross of Galahad" and kick-start your Harley, because the Fighting Texas Aggies are coming to town for a rumble. Gig 'em on past the jump for a preview of this week's opponent.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (66 of 111, 815 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (24 catches, 294 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (127 carries, 578 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Attrail Snipes (14 catches, 242 yards, 2 TD)

TAMU

Passing
Jerrod Johnson (127 of 211, 1,579 yards, 14 TD, 0 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Tannehill (20 catches, 308 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Cyrus Gray (72 carries, 314 yards, 2 TD)

Wild Card
Von Miller (24 tackles, 11 TFL, 9 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
TAMU (28) > K-State (38 | -2)

Passing Offense
TAMU (9) > K-State (91 | -1)

Total Offense
TAMU (4) > K-State (75 | -12)

Scoring Offense
TAMU (12) > K-State (99 | -12)

Rushing Defense
K-State (50 | -12) > TAMU (81)

Pass Efficiency Defense
TAMU (67) > K-State (84 | -62)

Total Defense
K-State (53 | -37) > TAMU (83)

Scoring Defense
K-State (66 | -37) > TAMU (85)

Net Punting
TAMU (39) > K-State (92 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (28 | +3) > TAMU (62)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (23 | -19) > TAMU (54)

Turnover Margin
TAMU (26) > K-State (61)

Pass Defense
K-State (65 | -58) > TAMU (81)

Passing Efficiency
TAMU (26) > K-State (71)

Analysis

Holy shit, that's a lot of red.

As you might expect, our painful encounter with the Red Raiders pretty much resulted in Mike Leach tentacle-raping our way-overinflated pass defense statistics. What I didn't foresee, though, is that Tech's normally impotent running game had the same effect on our rush defense statistics. Net result? An uncomfortable similarity to Ron Prince-era defensive numbers. We're not quite back to the triple digits yet, but we still have Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri to look forward to.

Time to get Halloween started early with my scary thought for the week: Texas A&M actually is ranked higher than Texas Tech in several offensive categories -- most notably rushing offense, of course. This does not augur well for a beleaguered and confidence-less defense limping home from the South Plains.

And if seeing Sticks Sheffield tear us apart wasn't fun enough, now we get to enjoy the same treatment whilst also watching our defenders bend down and grasp their ankles while Jerrod Johnson does his best Austen-Arnaud-times-two impression tomorrow night.

We have two chances to keep this game close and possibly even winnable in the fourth quarter. The battle plan is the same as last week; we just need to execute it 500 percent better. A&M has a weaker run defense than we do, and we need to not abandon the run in the first quarter like we did in Lubbock. Daniel Thomas should be able to net yards on these guys. That's key, because regardless if Carson Coffman or Grant Gregory gets the start, the pass rush they witnessed in Jones SBC Stadium will seem like being charged by geriatrics in walkers, compared to what Von Miller is going to do to Clyde Aufner.

On top of that, we have to make plays on special teams. Kick returns, punt returns, blocked kicks... I really don't care what. But it's become painfully clear that our offense never is going to score enough points to challenge "normal" Big 12 offenses conventionally, so our special teams need to manufacture scores to make up the difference. I'd say our defense could force turnovers to help, but despite Jeffrey Fitzgerald's wonderful interception runback, our defense in general is going to have little success doing so because you actually have to hit a guy before you can jar the ball loose.

All I can say is this: Thank God it's a night game at the Bill and it's Harley Day. The atmospheric boost we will get from that just might jar the Aggies enough in their first game outside the state of Texas, and away from friendly crowds, to crack open the door to victory ever so slightly.

But it's hard for me to forget that Ron Prince had to break Bill Snyder's five-game losing streak to the Aggies, a team that has given him even more heartache than Texas Tech over the years. As in the 2005 game, which we lost 30-28, I think the Cats will put up a game effort, but fall just short of victory. Unfortunately, that really could unravel the season.

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Kansas State 30

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Joseph Kassanavoid
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Emmanuel Lamur, Torrell Miller, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Good matchups this week. I predict a slew of close, exciting games. And yes, I do think the Huskers' defense is that good. More specifically, I think Ndamukong Suh is that good. I also liked what I saw out of Baylor last week -- I think they might be good enough across the board to survive in Ames.

#20 Oklahoma vs. #3 Texas (in Dallas) (ABC)
Longhorns 18, Sooners 17

Texas Tech at #15 Nebraska (ABC)
Cornhuskers 24, Red Raiders 10

#17 Kansas at Colorado (FSN)
Jayhawks 31, Buffaloes 21

Baylor at Iowa State
Bears 30, Cyclones 28

Missouri at #16 Oklahoma State (ESPN2)
Cowboys 22, Tigers 20

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Q & A With Bring On The Cats

Beergut — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 10:44:55 -0000

As we will try to do with the other SB Nation blogs of opponents we face this year, we exchanged questions with Bring On The Cats, the Kansas St Wildcats blog here on SB Nation. Thanks to TB for answering our questions.

1. Who will be your starting QB on Saturday? Should we expect to see Gregory start, as he has against Iowa State and Texas Tech, or do you think Coffman will get the nod?

Your guess is as good as mine. As usual, Bill Snyder is playing it close to the vest. It will probably depend on who has a better week of practice, and with K-State practices closed to the public as per the usual routine, we won't know unless word leaks. My gut tells me Carson Coffman will start, but that's nothing more than a hunch based on the fact that he replaced Grant Gregory last week and didn't fall flat on his face.

2. Is there a hotshot QB recruit headed to Manhattan who will take over next year? I realize the desire to win now, but I'm kind of surprised that Snyder isn't building for the future by going with Coffman.

There are several targets. Every K-State fan has junior college prospect Cam Newton on the top of their wish list for next season. Ordinarily I would agree that it doesn't make sense to play a sixth-year senior (Gregory) when you have a guy in Coffman who will be around a few more years. However, I don't think Coffman is our long-term answer, either, so we need to hope to land a good recruit. We thought we were in good shape when Wichita native Chris Harper transferred back, but the rumor now is that he will be moved to wide receiver rather than playing quarterback.

3. Brandon Banks and Daniel Thomas seem to be your biggest gamebreakers on offense. Is there someone else on offense we should watch out for?

I hope to see our 4-2-5 back on the field. For some unknown reason, we basically switched to a 3-4 attack last week against Tech, with predictably disastrous results. Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh switched the defensive alignment to the 4-2-5 this season specifically to counter spread offenses. I'm not sure why they went away from it against Tech, but I would expect to see it back the rest of the year after the debacle in Lubbock.

5. Jeff Fitzgerald looks like your best pass rusher, and with our issues at LT, looks like we should be concerned about him. Who else should we watch for on your defense?

If he's healthy, Brandon Harold at defensive end. He saw his first action of the season last week against Tech, although his time was limited and he may have reinjured himself. If both Fitzgerald and Harold are playing, I have some confidence that we can take advantage of Texas A&M's biggest weakness, which is obviously offensive line play. It's really our only hope at winning this game.

6. Whenever Snyder decides to retire again, can you see him taking a job as athletic director, ala Tom Osborne at Nebraska? It would seem to be a good move to regain the trust in your athletic department lost in the Ron Prince secret agreement snafu.

I don't really see that happening. The new athletic director, John Currie, has been a resounding success thus far with the K-State faithful. We will probably see Snyder stick around Manhattan like he did last time in somewhat of an advisory role, but unless things go south with Currie, I doubt we'll see Snyder as A.D.

7. Long term, what is your projection for a rebuilding schedule for your program? Winning season and bowl next year? Compete for the North division title in '11?

If we thought this year was tough, we could be in for a real wakeup call next year. At the end of this season, we lose 30+ players thanks to the great Ron Prince juco experiment two years ago. It's going to take a big recruiting class this year to make progress toward healing that wound. Plus, if we don't land a big-time quarterback prospect, we're not going to be in any better shape on offense than we are this year.

Farther down the road, I can see things starting to look up in 2011 or 2012, if this coaching staff stays intact and makes the incremental improvements that have been Snyder's hallmark over the years. Of course, that all assumes that Snyder sticks around for three, four, or five years, which isn't a given.

8. What is your score prediction for this game?

It's hard to say. If our defense recovers from last week's faceplant against Tech, and our defensive line can get pressure on Jerrod Johnson, I could see us hanging in there and winning a 24-21 type of game. Of course, if none of that happens and Texas A&M goes up two scores in the first quarter, it could be ugly like last week. I'm not too optimistic about this one.

Aggies 35, Wildcats 21

Go look at Bring On The Cats to see my answers to their questions about Texas A&M.

KICKING THE TIRES: Texas Tech University

BracketCat — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:01:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (3-2 | 1-0) AT Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2 | 0-1)

The Likely Loss in Lubbock
Jones AT&T Stadium - Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FSN

Arr, mateys. Click the jump for a scurvy preview of Capt. Leach's scalawags.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (18 of 29, 227 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 carries, 121 yards, 2 TD)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (23 catches, 289 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (116 carries, 529 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Brandon Harold* (45 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FF)

*2008 stats

TTU

Passing
Steven Sheffield (20 of 29, 290 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Alex Torres (29 catches, 301 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Baron Batch (44 carries, 226 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Lyle Leong (22 catches, 281 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (36 | -4) > TTU (120)

Passing Offense
TTU (2) > K-State (90 | +1)

Total Offense
TTU (8) > K-State (63 | -8)

Scoring Offense
TTU (11) > K-State (87)

Rushing Defense
TTU (28) > K-State (38 | -21)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (22 | -2) > TTU (48)

Total Defense
K-State (16 | -6) > TTU (69)

Scoring Defense
K-State (29 | -3) > TTU (51)

Net Punting
TTU (62) > K-State (101 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | +5) > TTU (43)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > TTU (23)

Turnover Margin
K-State (61 | -5) > TTU (100)

Pass Defense
K-State (7 | +6) > TTU (99)

Passing Efficiency
TTU (27) > K-State (71 | +16)

Analysis

I'll keep this simple: Texas Tech loves to pass the ball and really sucks at running it. They also turn it over a lot.

This would seem to favor us, because we have a really good passing defense, but we also haven't truly been tested downfield by anyone yet. And our rushing defense got exposed a little last week, too, so that remains an area of concern. Our lack of a pass rush also is a major concern.

We have sucked at passing, but might get a lot better now that Grant Gregory is starting. We are good at running the ball, but Tech is really good at stopping the run too. Our chief advantage is in the return game.

What does it all mean? I have no earthly idea. On paper, we should get killed by the talent mismatch, but Tech is breaking in a new starting QB for the first time in the Mike Leach era and also might not take us as seriously as it should. We are, after all, slightly better than the 0-5 New Mexico team that gave the Red Raiders fits last week.

I think the game will be closer than the experts think, but we just won't generate enough of a pass rush to pressure Sheffield — even if Brandon Harold starts, as is rumored.

Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 22

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

As I write this, Nebraska just pulled off a stunning comeback that clearly anoints them as the front-runner in the North. With games against Oklahoma State and Texas next, Missouri is in serious danger of an 0-3 start.

Oklahoma State is depleted, yes, but Texas A&M is just terrible. The Cowboys should be able to escape College Station with a win.

Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas all are served sacrificial lambs on a platter this week. Hell, our game might end up being one of the more competitive. It's too bad that the Big Ten and SEC showdowns aren't paralleled by great games in the Big 12 on Saturday. Hell, we moved our best game to a Thursday. Brilliant.

#15 Oklahoma State at Texas A&M (FSN)
Cowboys 25, Aggies 23

Iowa State at #16 Kansas (Versus)
Jayhawks 33, Cyclones 17

Baylor at #19 Oklahoma (ABC)
Sooners 27, Bears 15

Colorado at #2 Texas (ESPN)
Longhorns 33, Buffaloes 11

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Week 6

TB — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 13:02:31 -0000

via assets.sbnation.com

This week's Roundtable is hosted by Husker Mike at Corn Nation. Excellent questions this week, and I'm sorry we didn't get our answers posted in time for the recap.

1. I'm sure everybody had preseason predictions for their team. Now that we're a few games in, revise your predictions with your best and worst case scenarios (being reasonable on both sides), and then revising your prediction for the season result.

TB: My preseason prediction for K-State was 6-6, with a 3-5 conference record. The overall record projection should be adjusted downward at least one game because of the loss to Louisiana in the non-conference schedule. I think 3-5 is still attainable in conference after the win over Iowa State. We have home games against Colorado and Texas A&M remaining. Neither will be easy wins -- nothing will come easy for this team this year -- but neither of those teams is very good.

BracketCat: Well, I sipped the Kool-Aid a little bit back in August and said 7-5 (+/- 1), but that was before Brandon Harold and a host of other players got hurt. At this point, things definitely are shaping up for a 5-7/6-6 type season, but there's no denying that considerable progress has been made over last year, even if the record ends up the same. And I still think if things continue to progress for the next month as they have over the last month, we could jump up and bite somebody nobody thinks we will (hopefully, the Jayhawks) and maybe squeak out that seventh win after all.

2. In 2010, the Big 12 will send it's 7th place team to play in a new bowl game to be played at Yankee Stadium, replacing the Independence Bowl in Shreveport. What's your take on this move? Is it a good move for players? Is it a good move for the conference? Is it a good move for fans?

TB: From a media standpoint, this is probably a good move. It's the biggest city in the country, which could provide some extra exposure for the conference. Certainly it's better than some non-descript town along I-20 in northwest Louisiana in this area.

I have no idea whether this is good for the players or not. They get to play in Yankee Stadium, which may or may not be cool to them. I would think that playing somewhere like The Rose Bowl would be a bigger deal, but Yankee Stadium is almost certainly better than whatever crappy stadium Shreveport had for them.

For fans, this has its positives and negatives. I've never been, but it seems to me that you either love or hate New York City. My wife, a very sensible person, did not enjoy it at all. With a lot of schools in the Big 12 sporting fairly rural fanbases that consider $7 an outrageous sum to spend on a beer at a sporting event, this may not be good. The City is big, crowded and expensive, and those from that don't like cities will probably hate it. I'd probably go once if K-State was playing, but whether I would return would depend on my experience that first time.

BracketCat: I'm cool with it. For the seventh-place team, it will feel like Christmas and New Year's rolled into one. I mean, let's not pretend that Shreveport is any kind of attractive destination for fans. Yeah, New York might be a little more expensive to get to, but at least you can fly into a major airport and there are plenty of places to stay. I might be a little biased because my aunt lives just across the way in New Jersey and I'd have a free place to crash, but with our luck, we'd probably get rematched against my uncle's team (Rutgers), and have to face a hostile Yankee Stadium and get plowed again. The big benefit will be to the conference; a bowl game in ESPN's backyard can't hurt our media profile at all.

3. Oklahoma is now 2-2, with one of those victories coming against a winless 1-AA team. Will all be well in Soonerland once Sam Bradford returns?

TB: No. Oklahoma has reached the point where it expects to contend for a national title every year, and that hope is gone this season. The Sooners' worst year since 1999 was 2005 when they lost two games in the non-conference (sound familiar?). If OU loses to UT in Dallas in a few weeks, the season will officially be over, because even the Big 12 title will be off the table. At that point, I wouldn't be surprised to see an official "mail-it-in" effort from OU over the rest of the year. An 8-4 record would not be surprising at all.

BracketCat: No, because they're still without Mike Balogun, Ryan Broyles, Juaquin Iglesias, Manuel Johnson, Jermaine Gresham, Phil Loadholt and three other starting offensive linemen from last year. Even before the season, I thought OU might lose at Miami, to Texas, at Kansas, at Nebraska and/or at Texas Tech. Now that the BYU loss has been added to the ledger, and the Sooners have shown a severe lack of mental fortitude in dealing with the adversity that has been slung at them, a 7-5 "collapse" is a realistic possibility, given how balanced the rest of the conference is.

4. This week, Missouri and Nebraska face off on an ESPN Thursday night broadcast at 8 pm. Last Thursday, Colorado lost to West Virginia. Missouri and Colorado both have played Friday night road games. What's your take on non-Saturday games?

TB: I've laid this out pretty extensively in the past, but the short answer is that they're a terrible idea for K-State as home games. When your school is in a town of 45,000 people, and the nearest population centers are Topeka (50 miles, 120,000 people), Kansas City (120 miles, 2 million people) and Wichita (120 miles, ~400,000 people), you're not going to draw a good crowd for a game on Thursday or Friday. If it's a road game, it might not be a bad idea, but it doesn't work in Manhattan. I will be shocked if you ever see a Thursday game in Manhattan.

BracketCat: Four words: Louisville on a Wednesday. Four more words: I f***in' hate 'em. And I am glad Bill Snyder never will consent to playing another one. They're great to watch other people like Colorado flop in, but I despise watching my team do the same.

5. It seems everybody is in agreement that the bottom three teams in the North are the bottom three teams in the conference. Is the gap growing, and which of these teams is going to break out of the cellar first. Or is it hopeless?

TB: The gap is pretty wide, but it's clearly grown over time. Are the bottom three teams in the North in 2009 appreciably worse than the bottom three teams in the North were in 1998? Yes, given that MU and CU were 8-4 that year and were clearly the third and fourth best teams in the North. This year, K-State, Iowa State and Colorado are likely to range from 2-10 to 5-7 (at best). That's clearly a step back.

On the other hand, I'd hold off on announcing those three teams as the undisputed worst in the conference. This week's result against Arkansas makes clear that Texas A&M is not nearly as improved as we thought. The loss of Robert Griffin also likely relegates Baylor to the level of the ignominious three from the North.

Finally, no, nothing is hopeless. If a team with 500 losses can hire an assistant coach from Iowa and come within one quarter of playing for a national title 10 years later, nothing is hopeless. If you're old enough, think back to KU under Terry Allen and MU under Larry Smith. Did any of those fans have any hope of achieving anything resembling the success they've had recently? If they say they did, ask them if they still thought that while K-State was beating them 64-0 and 66-0, respectively.

BracketCat: I think the gap is narrowing, actually, and for two reasons. One, Baylor and Texas A&M appear to be more at our ("our" being CU/ISU/KSU) level than at any other. Two, I see week-to-week improvement in Iowa State and Kansas State. These teams are playing solid ball; they just lack depth and talent. Colorado, not so much, but that's the only truly putrid team we have. As for breaking out of the cellar, I have to be a homer and say us since we're already 1-0 in the North and get CU at home. First past the post, baby!

6. Rank all of the division 1 football conferences from top to bottom. Not just the BCS conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big 10/11, Big East, Pac 10, SEC), but the others (MAC, Conference USA, WAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt) as well. Who's the strongest conference, and who's the pretender?

TB: I punt. I'll take a page out of T. Kyle King's book and just avoid the conference wars.

BracketCat: 1. SEC -- "King of the Hill" for all eternity now that ESPN has become its pimp.
2. Big 12 -- Overrated, but still better then the others. Texas is a stud; rest of the conference is more balanced than last year. Ties the SEC with six ranked teams.
3. Pac-10 -- USC is not as good as previous years; Cal is a fraud; Oregon got bitchslapped by Boise State. But Stanford is pretty good and there is a lot of balance.
4. Big Ten -- Solid, but unspectacular. Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all have given reason to believe they're not worthy of Top 25 status, and Indiana and Purdue are beyond awful.
5. Mountain West -- Yeah, I put 'em here. Should have three ranked teams and deserves a BCS bid more than the Big East. Colorado State is pretty good, too.
T6. ACC -- Other than Miami and Virginia Tech, still a wallowing puddle of mediocrity and suckyness. Virginia might be the worst BCS team with a single win. Oh, wait, forgot about Duke.
T6. Big East -- Cincinnati and the seven dwarves. Still not buying USF, because FSU is awful. WVU, Pittsburgh and Rutgers haven't done shit. Louisville and Syracuse are just plain bad.
8. WAC -- Not just Boise State. Fresno State remains a dangerous program and Nevada looked pretty damn solid against Missouri.
9. Conference USA -- Houston's obliteration at the hands of UTEP knocked them out of 8th place. Tulsa is way down and ECU is solid, but getting no media love.
T10. MAC -- Normally would have sole possession of 10th, but Ball State went from first to worst, Buffalo has returned to its old ways and there is no premier program this year other than Central Michigan, and even it looks a little down from the last two seasons. If not for Toledo destroying Colorado, would anyone even notice the MAC's existence this season?
T10. Sun Belt -- Probably going to be here until the end of time. Welcoming Western Kentucky to the ranks sure didn't help.

7. PowerPoll time. Rank 'em 1 to 12 based on who you think would be the victor on a neutral field.

TB:

1. Texas -- Nothing to add here.
2. Missouri -- By simple attrition, the Tigers move up to this spot. We'll see if they deserve it against Nebraska on Thursday.
3. Nebraska -- Justified in my mind, because Nebraska narrowly lost to a Virginia Tech team that spanked the Miami team that beat Oklahoma. Comparative box scores don't tell the whole story, but for now their resume trumps the Sooners'.
4. Oklahoma -- Failed their big test in Oklahoma and it will be interesting to see if they bounce back or mail in the rest of the season. Get the nod over the No. 5 team because they've played a much better schedule and have been overwhelmingly good in their two wins.
5. KU -- If you're feeling slighted as a KU fan, you'll have your chance against all four of the teams in front of you. As of now, the resume is not as impressive as those teams.
6. Oklahoma State -- Nobody behind them was overly impressive, so the Pokes stay here.
7. Texas Tech -- Not overly impressive against New Mexico, but the team in front of them was far worse, so they move up a spot. Something has happened to that defense since the game in Austin.
8. Texas A&M -- Was annihilated by Arkansas, but nobody behind them did enough to justify a bigger drop.
9. K-State -- No, beating Iowa State is not really that impressive, but I can't justify any of the other bottom-dwellers here, so the Cats land at No. 9.
10. Iowa State -- Not really based on anything. They were slightly better than Baylor in beating Kent State, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
11. Baylor -- Proved they can still win a game without Griffin. The problem is that the opponent was Kent State.
12. Colorado -- Gashed by West Virginia in a game that wasn't really as close as it looked. Without a doubt, K-State's best shot at another win this year is when CU visits Manhattan.

BracketCat: So if things hold pat, it's Kansas State vs. Texas for the Big 12 Championship, right? LOL!

1. Texas
2. Kansas
3. Missouri
4. Nebraska
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas Tech
7. Oklahoma State
8. Texas A&M
9. Baylor
10. Kansas State
11. Iowa State
12. Colorado

K-State Slate, 10/8/09

TB — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 12:49:22 -0000

Football

For some reason I thought this was a foregone conclusion, but apparently it's still up in the air whether Taylor Potts will start this Saturday for Texas Tech. Either way, the defense is still going to have to bring it, because backup Steven Sheffield threw three TD passes last week in relief duty. Potts suffered a concussion last week, which makes me think it's highly unlikely he'll play.

On our own injury front, speculation abounds about when DE Brandon Harold may return to the lineup. Given that he's back at practice, some believe it could happen this weekend. Snyder's playing it coy, which I'm sure you're all surprised to hear.

Kevin Haskin is back with his weekly mid-week musings. Gotta love this quote from Bill Snyder:

Best line from Snyder's press conference Tuesday concerned the Tech crowd. "People are going to talk about your mother down there," he said.

Basketball

Both the men's and women's basketball teams will have open practices soon. I may have to go check those out while I'm in town for the next couple football games.

Sounds like more good news on the B-Easy front. And you have to love this quote from Frank Martin:

"As soon as he made his decision (to seek treatment), Dalonte (Hill, Martin's assistant coach and a longtime Beasley mentor) got in a plane and flew down to spend a week with him. Mike told him, 'Bring some K-State gear. I want to be happy again,' and we did."

Remember, if you're in the Kansas City area, that you'll have a chance to see B-Easy play one week from today at Sprint Center. I'll be there in my No. 30 jersey.

Volleyball

The team's struggles continued as they were swept by Texas A&M in College Station. Also, the match with Texas Tech, which had been postponed due to flu issues at Tech, has been rescheduled for November 8.

Around the Big 12

Standout Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. Sounds like it may be a bit of a misunderstanding, so maybe the NCAA will reinstate him. Ohhhh, wait, for a second I thought I was talking about an organization that did things that make sense. Nevermind.

Don't forget that the weekend's Big 12 action kicks off tonight with Missouri vs. Nebraska.

Also, drop by Double T Nation for the best coverage of Texas Tech around. Please don't come back here afterward and ask me why I don't pump out as many long, informative posts as Seth C does. Nobody really knows how he does it. I would say he's a machine, but I've met him in person before.

Up at Corn Nation, JLew's Cob of the Week goes to Farmageddon. Yep, you can direct all correspondence to Bob Krause, at 717 Glad I'm Not You Drive, Nowhere, KS 66602.

The Fourum

Link

I've just officially seen the first Eski-ho of the year. Let the watch parties begin.

To the person who called about K-State being lucky the other day: Being lucky is better than being a cheater any day.

It's funny when people run with backpacks on.

To the cute girls walking the cute dogs: You can continue walking in front of my house.

To the Asian boy at the stoplight today jamming out to Taylor Swift: You made my day.

Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Kansas St. Wildcats Edition

Seth C — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:08:24 -0000

This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Kansas St. Wildcats Edition".

Reason #1 :: Turnovers and Penalties: Too many turnovers for the Red Raiders and other than the Aggies, Texas Tech is 11th in the conference in number of penalties, but luckily for the Aggies, Texas Tech is last in the conference (or best) in yards. That's right, there's been 13 turnovers in just 5 games and the Red Raiders are in the hole one turnover for every game. And the interceptions are bothersome, but the rate that Potts was throwing picks was at an acceptable rate (1 INT for every 44 passes (for comparison purposes, Harrell was at a 50 attempts for every INT in 2007). At some point (although I think it has caught up to the Red Raiders to some extent) it's going to be an avalanche rather than losing a close game.

Reason #2 :: K-State Controls the Clock: We've talked a bit the last two days about KSU's running game and with the insertion of Grant Gregory there's the fear that K-State will control the clock and just pick away at the Texas Tech defense. I know that K-State isn't as talented as Nebraska, but I could see Snyder game-planning to just constantly pick at a Texas Tech defense that is looking not to give up the deep ball to WR Brandon Banks, QB Grant Gregory completing passes over the middle for short gains and RB Daniel Thomas grinding it on the ground.

Reason #3 :: Banks is Special: Brandon Banks can not only beat teams catching the ball, but he's been just spectacular returning kickoffs and right now the Red Raiders are 8th in the conference in allowing 21.45 yards a return. You'd like to see that average a little closer to 20 yards, but the easy way to avoid all of this is to have K Donnie Carona kick the ball out the endzone, which he can do with some regularity some of the time, but that touchback average has really regressed and currently sits at 25.81%. Carona's biggest flaw is consistency in kicking and it's clearly evident here. I really don't want Carona to get cute and try a bunch of directional kicking and would much prefer to simply just kick it out of the endzone if possible and remove the possibility of a Banks return.

Reason #4 :: Injuries Mounting: To say that this is a concern is an understatement and to be truthful, there's a lot of teams that cannot recover from losing a starting center, starting strong safety, starting defensive end and starting quarterback, and still win by 21. That's a lot of attrition for a season, much less just one game. There was talk this morning that KSU's defensive tackle/end Brandon Harold may return and he is the type of player that could give LT Terry McDaniel trouble on the outside or give C Justin Keown and LG Chris Olson trouble on the inside. The Texas Tech secondary is also taking quite a hit with the loss of FS Cody Davis who has been absolutely spectacular thus far this year and has made sure that the defense doesn't get beat for a long touchdown. If he's still in a protective boot yesterday, it's likely he doesn't play. He's the type of player that you don't necessarily notice is gone until KSU gets a touchdown deep. And we haven't even talked about replacing Taylor Potts for Steven Sheffield.

Reason #5 :: Solid Coaching: Bill Snyder is in the process of rebuilding Kansas St. and back in his heyday, he was one of the best in the coaching fraternity. To say that Leach has made some coaching mistakes this year might be an understatement and there may not be a more solid game-day coach that Snyder, who isn't likely to make a mistake on the field. His team may not be able to perform, but it won't be because of his coaching decisions. I've already mentioned the fact that KSU could have a similar game-plan to Nebraska of 2008. With a solid coach making right decisions and a solid game-plan the potential for an upset is quite prevelent.

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 10.07.09

Seth C — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 11:16:26 -0000

No Name Defense: LAJ's Don Williams writes that the defense is being led by players who were not well-known prior to the start of the season, but are on pace to break last year's sack mark of 34. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill believes that his unit is attacking opposing defenses:

"It’s guys finishing plays and us wanting to attack,’’ defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill said Tuesday. "We want to make sure we’re attacking on defense. I think that tells us (statistically) we are attacking. We have to keep that up.’’

McNeill also mentions that he is blitzing more this year as the players are more comfortable with the defense

"People probably don’t notice,’’ McNeill said, "but we do blitz more than we have, because they understand the package better and we’re getting better at fundamentals.’’

McNeill said he didn’t have any numbers to document the increased blitzing.
"I don’t really keep up with that. I just know I’m calling it,’’ he said. "Situation dictates that. Time of the game dictates that. And the guys are able to handle it better.’’

Summary on Leach Injury Policy: FWST's Dwain Price has a lengthy note about Leach's injury policy and that it's lazy reporting for reporters and an easy alibi for coaches to discuss injuries:

"We have a whole bunch of people that are going to go out there and practice and play and achieve things out there on the field. And so I am more than willing to talk about them.

"And those are the people that need to be discussed and recognized.''

EDSBS, Brandon Carter and Linkin Park: If you get the subject line, then you'll understand. Just go here.

Football Notebook: LAJ's Don Williams writes that there are 4 starters missing from practices, including C Shawn Byrnes, in a protective boot, FS Cody Daivs, also in a protective boot, DE Daniel Howard, hopefully only a stinger, and QB Taylor Potts, possible concussion. Williams mentions that the good news is that SS Franklin Mitchem should be ready to play . . . about 5,000 tickets remain for Saturday's game against Kansas St. and 10,000 tickets remain for the TAMU game . . .

Kansas St. Wildcat Links: Wichita Eagle's Kellis Robinett writes that head coach Bill Snyder has been unhappy with the KSU defense, stating that the Wildcats were soft against Iowa St.and is concerned about making tackles in open space . . . CJOnline's Austin Meek writes all-world defensive tackle/end Brandon Harold may return against Texas Tech and this is worrisome as he is an absolute force along the defensive line . . . the Mercury Manhattan writes that Snyder sill has yet to decide on a starting quarterback, and the battle is between Carson Coffman (apologies to KSU fans as I think I've called him Case a few times) and Grant Gregory . . .

Big 12 Links: Rock M Nation's Beyond the Box Score has this week's picks (hint, Texas Tech doesn't cover the spread, but just barely) . . .

Neglected Video: Sportstacular NewChannel 11's Pete Christy with a one-on-one with head coach Mike Leach -- after the jump.

Bob Knight Fieldhouse: Remember a few weeks ago when the Duncanville Stars Center was dropped by the Dallas Stars and was converted into a basketball and volleyball facility? To catch you up, Bob Knight has a small investment in the facility now and as a result, it gets named after him, the Bob Knight Fieldhouse. In any event, it opened yesterday and you'll see news stories where Knight took a jab at the NCAA:

The leader in Division I men’s basketball victories quickly answered anyway because it involved one of his favorite targets – the NCAA – and whether the governing body he has long loathed would be involved in his Dallas-area basketball and volleyball operation.

"If the N-C-double-A had anything to do with this," Knight said, "the roof would leak, there would be no locks on the doors and the court would only have one basket."

I guess that's a jab, but was expecting quite a bit more heat from the headline.

Brooks Wallace Memorial Classic: The baseball club has announced that the Brooks Wallace Memorial Classic will be an annual tournament held in Lubbock every year. Here's head coach Dan Spencer:

"This is an exciting opportunity for our program as we get to honor the memory of a really great person and baseball player in Brooks Wallace," said Spencer. "The College Baseball Foundation has made him a national figure in our sport in terms of the Wallace Award and we felt that it was time for our program to do something to honor his memory. Brooks was a Red Raider and we are very proud of that."

Trying to make the jump work, but failing miserably.