SB Nation - Ryan Baker

LSU 33 - Arkansas 30: Snap Judgments

Richard Pittman — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 04:19:36 -0000

19 days ago: LSU running back Trindon Holliday (8) runs past Arkansas cornerback Ramon Broadway (26) in the first half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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A win's a win. I guess we've said that a few times this year. For a team that was predicted before the season to be 9-3 at the end, this has been a very tumultuous 9-3 team. It's a team that could well have been 6-6 (near losses to Washington, MSU, and Arkansas). It could have beaten Ole Miss, and wasn't THAT far away from beating Alabama. This is a team that, based on its play on the field, could have gone anywhere from 6-6 to 11-1. 9-3 is, I suppose, not that bad under those circumstances. There will be some thoughts on that later; probably a lot of thoughts from a lot of different writers. Anyway, a few snap judgments:

First, the final drive of regular time. After taking a terrible sack, Jefferson came back and made some nice plays, but the final drive belonged to Stevan Ridley, Josh Jasper, and Derek Helton. Derek Helton? The snap on the field goal was terrible, but Helton snagged the high-and-outside pitch and got it down for Jasper to get a clean hit on it. Tie game.
Jefferson was maddeningly inconsistent throughout the game, vacillating from stretches of brilliance (our touchdown drives) and strange decision-making/inaccuracy (most of the rest of the game). This is a kid with the potential to be an excellent quarterback. He just needs to accentuate the positive while eliminating the negative. There's a lot of positive to work with there.
The overtime was a snoozer. We went 3-and-out kind of pitifully, but got a medium-range field goal. Arkansas nearly had to try a 45-yarder until they got a nice 8 yard gain on 3rd and 12 to set up a medium-range field goal, but missed it. Drake Nevis and Lavar Edwards made great plays to set up the 3rd and long that ultimately decided the game.
Trindon Holliday was the MVP of the first half until he muffed that punt, scoring a special teams touchdown, putting us in good field position multiple times, and running effectively from scrimmage. Then, after the muff, he completely disappeared.
Russell Shepard also disappeared after a little early activity. This is one of the lesser-discussed but most maddening aspects of our suspect offense. In the second half, we tend to tighten up and not put in the homerun hitters.
I did not like the helmet-to-helmet call on Chad Jones. I'm not saying it was technically wrong, but it's been called so infrequently this year that it is surprising to me that it was called on a play where it appeared that Jones at least attempted to lead with his shoulder, and appeared to hit head-to-head only with a glancing blow. We've seen much worse head-to-head hits go uncalled this year.
The defensive line got after it in the first half, then disappeared for long stretches in the second. I don't think it's a coincidence that we did not get a single stop in the second half. When we stopped getting pressure, Ryan Mallett started hitting receivers. The decision to constantly go with a 3-man rush in the second half contributed to the problems, even though the 3-man rush had success in the first half.
The coverage teams were great tonight. I can't wait to see more of Ryan Baker next year.
It was good to see Brandon Lafell walk off. It would have been awful to see such a great Tiger blow a knee in overtime of Game 12 of his senior season.
The offensive line played pretty well this week. Losing Ciron Black will hurt, but I think this could be a good unit next year.
Except for the helmet-to-helmet, I thought the officiating was pretty good tonight.
The corner opposite Peterson continues to get picked on in every game. I sure hope that Jai Eugene makes a big leap in his play next year, or that Morris Claiborne is ready to take over.
With Ole Miss losing, I think we are going to the Cap One, but nothing is official. Who else would they take at this point? Ole Miss? South Carolina? Tennessee? Georgia? We're not exactly a thrilling choice, but those others aren't either. Actually, it will be really interesting to see how the bowls shake out. As of press time, Georgia was still playing Georgia Tech. If they win that one, there will be six, SIX!, teams with 7 wins in the SEC. Ole Miss, at 8 wins, is the clear choice for Cotton, but the Outback and every bowl on down could go in literally any direction after that.

Behind the Numbers: LSU v Tulane

Poseur — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:20:41 -0000

We beat Tulane. Big whoop. I'm doing the Behind the Numbers early just to get it over with. Honestly, trying to glean meaning from a win over Tulane is a fool's errand. Do not read too much into anything that happened.

267. LSU's rushing yards. The running game has been, at times, downright brutal this season. Getting 267 yards against anyone is a feat for this team. Charles Scott rushed for 112 yards, his first 100 yard game of the season. I'm happy for Scott, but let's not call it a breakout game until he does it against a defense with a pulse.

2. Keiland Williams' total touches. He didn't catch a ball and he had all of two carriers. Meanwhile, Stevan Ridley looked great in his 8 garbage time carries and Russell Shepard looked explosive in his five carriers. Shep seems to have taken over the "shifty back" role in the offense, relegating Williams to a few change of pace carries and waving his towel on the sideline. I feel really bad for the kid, who came in as a five star recruit with all of the hype in the world. His LSU career is not what he, or anyone, imagined for him. He's been a good player and, to his credit, he's never publicly complained about his role, but it is probably time to admit he is a bust. Russell Shepard's expanded role will probably come at Keiland Williams' expense.

50. Trindon Holliday had not one, but two 50 yard punt returns. Man, he is an explosive player. He never quite has been a star, but he always has these flashes of brilliance.

2-51. In case you didn't notice, Drew Alleman got the start as the punter. He punted twice in the first half, and shanked them both. Josh Jasper, our do everything special teams guy, came out in the third and punted it 41 yards. I'd rather Alleman shank it against Tulane because it's likely he won't get the chance to do it against Bama. With Derek Helton out, Jasper is now going to have to take every kick. No pressure.

1. LSU's three and outs. In every game, the offense has gone into the tank for an extended period. That didn't happen against Tulane, which was another positive sign. The only three and out was actually the first possession. LSU probably won't go 7/10 on third downs against the Tide, but it was nice to see the offense stay on the field.

38. Tackles by LSU's top linebackers: Kelvin Sheppard (13), Perry Riley (8), Jacob Cutrera (6), Ryan Baker (6), and Harry Coleman (5). The five linebackers also combined for 5 TFL's. It's been a long time since our linebackers were the most productive unit on defense. That is a positive sign going into Alabama. Our linebackers must make tackles.

LSU vs. Georgia: A Light-Heavyweight Bout Between Two Teams Hoping to Go Up in Weight Class

Richard Pittman — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:25:44 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

Save the season in 3... 2... wait for it... wait for it... (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

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I didn't feel inspired to write anything yesterday, and today is not so easy either. Part of me says, "Let's just watch the game and forget about analyzing it to death before the fact." These are two teams who are not poised for glory, at least not yet, but they can see it from where they stand. They can see the obstacles in their way as well.

Georgia's obstacles are a suspect defense and a decided lack of ball control. Joe Cox, who has been productive as a quarterback with 9 touchdown passes, leads the SEC with 5 interceptions. They have also lost 7 fumbles, to give them 12 turnovers in 4 games, the most in the SEC. Meanwhile, they aren't generating turnovers, giving them a turnover margin of -9 on the season, again worst in the SEC. Their defense is giving up an average of 243 yards per game in the air, though that average is inflated by having given up 408 yards to Arkansas. They held Oklahoma State and Arizona State to reasonable passing yards against.

LSU's obstacles are an offense that isn't firing on all cylinders because the blocking is not there, and an inability to get sacks on the quarterback. We are last in the league in total offense, though we are mid-pack where it really counts in scoring offense. We are last in the league in sacks. Rahim Alem, who has been surprisingly good in my opinion on containing the run, has not been getting to the quarterback the way he should, and we aren't getting enough pressure from the middle. We aren't giving the quarterback all day to throw, but we aren't getting him to the ground enough either.

Yes, both of these teams have weaknesses that, if not corrected, will prevent them from being there at the end of the season. If we don't figure out how to improve our offensive line play, and if Georgia does not figure out how to play more consistently on defense and cut down the turnovers on offense, neither one of these teams will be there when the SEC Championship Game combatants are announced.

But let me be clear. Neither of these teams are bad. Both sit at 2-0 in the conference, and while Georgia needed last-second heroics from Rennie Curran to escape against South Carolina, they got the heroics they needed. While LSU needed last-second heroics from Chad Jones and Ryan Baker to escape against Mississippi State, they got the heroics. They both escaped what would have been very damaging losses and lived to fight another day. Tomorrow is that "other day".

For now, these two flawed teams, neither of whom are in the weight class of the best in the conference (yet), will be playing each other. It is an interesting proving ground for both teams. Two flawed teams, one of whom will stay undefeated in the conference and the other of whom will finally be "exposed" as a pretender.

I choose "exposed" deliberately, and put it in quotes deliberately as well. This is what media members will say after the game, but it is not a completely appropriate description. Both of these teams have been exposed already. Washington and Mississippi State revealed major weaknesses in LSU. South Carolina and Arkansas exposed Georgia. Mediocre play by one team or the other, or both, would not be a big surprise at this point.

Because this is an interdivisional game, it is not a must-win game for either team standings-wise. Both teams will control their own destinies in the divisions they represent regardless of whether they win or lose. However, I think this is an important game for both of these teams beyond its impact in the standings. Both of these teams are beleaguered by fans and media pressing on them, trying to explain or understand why they are not as good as they should be. I believe that whoever loses this game will be damaged by it psychologically and it could lead to a spiraling season.

In parallel, both of these coaches have come under fire. Mark Richt for always coming close to national championship level but not ever quite bringing his team there, and for starting the season slowly this year. Les Miles for a poor 2008 and an anxiety-producing start to the 2009 season. Les Miles, I think, can silence the critics for a while with a win here. I am not so sure Mark Richt can. This is a cross-roads game not only for the teams involved, but for the coaches. They are on somewhat parallel trajectories right now, but one of them is going to break off.

The more I think about this game, the less like a big college football game it feels. It feels more like a fight for survival. Like a loser's bracket game in a double-elimination tournament between two teams that both believe they should be in the winner's bracket. One of these teams gets to continue on and the other is going home. Not literally of course, because the season continues for both teams, with plenty goals still to reach, but I can't shake the feeling that this game marks the end of something. If LSU wins, it marks the end of Georgia as a serious contender in the East, perhaps for more than just this year. If Georgia wins, it may do the same to LSU.

So yeah, those are your happy thoughts for Friday morning.

LSU 30 - Mississippi State 26: Snap Judgments

Richard Pittman — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 20:15:28 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

2 months ago: LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson (7) steps in front Mississippi State running back Christian Ducre' (29) for a first quarter interception during their NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

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You have to give a lot of credit to the defense in this game, and in particular to Chad Jones who made huge plays on 3rd and 4th down on our goal line stand. Here are my snap judgments, subject to change upon further viewing:

Goal Line Stand!! Holy Freakin' Feces! How can you not love that? Lots of players came up big. None bigger than Chad Jones who knocked down what looked like a sure touchdown pass on 3rd down, and then joined Ryan Baker to make the big 4th down stop that essentially sealed the game.
Speaking of... Ryan Baker! Backup linebacker coming up huge. I can't figure out why he was in the game, unless we were in a 4-LB formation.
They really bailed out the offense, and in particular the offensive line, which had an awful game. The running game went nowhere, and Jordan Jefferson was harassed all game. This is quickly becoming THE problem area of this season. It's been a problem in every game, and has not improved one lick from the Wshington game until now.
We outplayed MSU in the first half but couldn't get any distance from them because of the problems on special teams. Our offensive unit outplayed their defensive unit, and our defensive unit outplayed their offensive unit. We handed them a touchdown on special teams, and also missed an extra point. If not for that, it could have been a 17-7 game at halftime and the whole spirit of the game would have been different.
I'm not going to name names, but I have a feeling we will not be seeing our previous starting long snapper again for a while.
MSU outplayed us in the second half, but couldn't make up any ground on us because we got a huge play on the touchdown to Lafell and a big punt return for a touchdown. Other than that, our offense got very little going.
We had one nice drive in the second half, but it ended when Miles decided not to go for it on 4th and goal from the 2 and we had a bobbled snap on the field goal. Again, special teams errors cost us points.
Speaking of that play, for the love of whatever deity or abstract concept you follow, please go for a touchdown on 4th and goal from the 2. I know our offensive line got no push al game, but it's worth a shot. Even if you miss it you leave the opposing offense in terrible field position. A touchdown is worth more than twice what a field goal is worth and there's no down side unless disaster strikes, which can happen on any play from anywhere. This is one of my biggest complaints about "conventional wisdom". Unless it's the end of the half or the end of the game, or unless 3 points are particularly important under the circumstances, you should go for it when you're at the goal line. Every time. The mathematics are on your side, even if you AREN'T a good running team (which we aren't).
We clearly have problems on the offensive line, but I can't tell if that game was simply a matter of an inferior team playing its best game against us, or if we just aren't that good. Thoughts?

Fans Will Be Watching LSU Defense

Richard Pittman — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:30:18 -0000

With the season fast approaching, I was trying to think of good topics to discuss to help you, the viewer, watch the right things and know what you're watching. Yesterday, I talked about the defensive line. Billy Gomilla helped me out and posted a nice piece on our wide receivers that actually used [gasp!] data. I was trying to come up with the next topic in this little pseudo-series, and I was thinking about the linebackers and the defensive backs, and the special teams units, and the reserves, and it finally occurred to me that the entire defense is one giant, barely differentiated topic of conversation that has been sadly neglected.

The whole defense is changing. Not only do we have a new defensive coordinator, but it is possible that literally none of the opening night starters from the 2008 season will be opening night starters at the same position in 2009. All four defensive line starters are gone, as are middle linebacker Darry Beckwith and free safety Curtis Taylor. Starting strong safety Harry Coleman is now starting strongside linebacker Harry Coleman. Former strongside linebacker Perry Riley is now weakside linebacker Perry Riley. Former weakside linebacker Kelvin Sheppard is battling Jacob Cutrera for the middle linebacker job and is backing up Harry Coleman at strongside. The two starting cornerbacks against Appalachian State in 2008 are now battling each other to start on the other side of Patrick Peterson in 2009. Former dime-back/linebacker/rover Chad Jones is now just a free safety. No one knows who the strong safety will be.

It's massive wholesale changes in personnel and in scheme. It's like starting over, and that's not a bad thing given the results last year, which were miserable on the defensive side of the ball.

I wish I knew what to tell you to expect. It's all a mystery for right now. I'll tell you what I'm looking for, but it seems so basic, like any fan could make the same list if they just sat and thought about it.

1. The pass rush, both in a base set and in a blitz. Last season, despite having one of the best sack artists in the conference along with a top 5 overall NFL draft pick on the defensive line, we pretty much failed to get any sort of a pass rush except when we sold out and brought in our "Express" package of 4 defensive ends, and we were still only 6th in the league in tackling the quarterback behind the line of scrimmage. Even blitzes seemed to consistently fail to disrupt the opponent's passing game. This was a contributing factor to a miserable pass defense. This year, with [all together now] an entirely new defensive coaching staff, the most obvious place to look for immediate dividends is at the pass rush. You don't have to get sacks to have an effective pass rush. Making a quarterback throw the ball away is almost as good as a sack. A good pass rush can contribute to an interception or a tipped pass. A good pass rush can help you in so many ways, that it's no wonder our defense was so ineffective without one. I'm interested to see how we do in obvious passing situations, as well as how we do in less obvious passing situations.

2. Zone or Man? And who are the blitzers? John Chavis is definitely known as a zone guy, and I see no indication that he is going to change his general tendencies. The man knows zone. He has made his name on zone. Like most fans, I have a hard time getting excited about zone, but you don't go out and buy a Cadillac so you take it off-roading. Bringing in Chavis to run an aggressive man-to-man scheme unlike what he's had success with in the past would be foolish. Let the man run zone, but mix it up a bit too.

People misconstrue a zone. They think that playing a zone means playing passively, and that just isn't true. In a Chavis zone, the idea is to get the ball into the air and then to go get the ball. Chavis's defense picked off 17 passes last year and scored 4 defensive touchdowns off of interceptions. LSU's picked off 8, and did not score. Man defense is aggressive in the secondary before the ball is thrown. Zone defense is aggressive after it is thrown.

Plus, playing zone does not preclude blitzing. It merely changes how you do a blitz. Sometimes, you pull a defensive end back into a zone and overload the opposite side with rushers. That is, obviously, a "zone blitz" and if it works right you will have one offensive lineman not blocking anyone (essentially taking him off the field and forcing the offense to play with 10 players) while one or more rusher on the other side of the field comes free. If that's a speedy safety or a corner, all the better. With more speed on the field, I expect to see blitzes coming from a lot of directions.

3. Will we punish receivers? In a year that was frustrating in a lot of ways, one of the frustrating things that went relatively unnoticed was the fact that opposing receivers, and in particular the tight ends, could catch passes over the middle without any fear of taking a big hit. Case in point, the first play of this highlight reel of the game against South Carolina:

I think that's something that's going to change. The zone defense, with its aggressive-after-the-ball-is-in-the-air philosophy will make sure that receivers who go over the middle to catch passes have to pay a price for it. The linebackers and the safeties will be looking to light up some receivers. And if you watched Demetrius Byrd towards the end of last year, you know what getting hit hard can do to a receiver. It can make him not want to catch passes. Not all will actually act on that impulse, but the thought affects some receivers. Plus, it looks cool on TV.

4. Will players be rotated in and out as much? More? In 2008 and in previous years, LSU has fairly extensively rotated defensive linemen in and out of the game, but except for bringing in nickel- and dime-packages, linebackers and defensive backs remained more-or-less constant unless injury required a shift. I wonder if that will change. Will we see Brandon Taylor and Karnell Hatcher rotate at safety? Will we see Ryan Baker get an opportunity to play in the base defense in meaningful snaps?

5. Will Patrick Peterson, Perry Riley, and Chad Jones be as good as advertised? The question pretty much says it all, there.

Class of 2009: LB Kevin Minter

Richard Pittman — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

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Linebacker Kevin Minter from Peachtree Ridge High School in Suwanee, Georgia, was an early enrollee at LSU, and so has been at LSU since Spring Practice. This is a player I seriously considered giving "headliner" status to, but ultimately I am going to be conservative and simply call him a solid player.

When Kevin Minter committed, it was not exactly earth-shattering news. He was a 3-star on Rivals and a low 4-star on Scout, from 3 states away from Louisiana. He had gotten very little if any press, and no one believed he was a make or break prospect. That is, until we all watched the film.

Here is what I said of Kevin Minter at the time of his commitment:

Probably my favorite defensive commitment so far is 3-star linebacker Kevin Minter from Peachtree Ridge High School in Suwanee, Georgia. I think Rivals has him criminally underrated. Scout lists him as a 4-star and the #5 rated middle linebacker in the country, which is more appropriate. To me, he looks just about as good as Ryan Baker does, and he was almost a 5-star according to Rivals. Minter has the size, at 6'0" and 220#. He also has athleticism, as seen in his video where he skies to knock a pass out of the air. He is aggressive. Blockers don't seem to discourage him at all. When he finds a target, he goes after it full speed, and no obstacle stays in his way long. It would not at all surprise me to see Minter's stock rise as the season goes on. I know that USC (the one in California) wanted him bad, and when USC is willing to recruit a guy all the way out in Georgia, he must be pretty darn good. It's best not to get too hung up in ratings. I know the coaches ignore them, but you want a kid to get his due.

I was not the only person to see more in Kevin Minter than what his ratings would suggest. Here is what Scott Kennedy said of Minter's performance at the Georgia state championships:

A question I get every year about the games in the dome is "if you could take one player, who would it be?" For the Dome games of 2008, I'd have to say it would be Peachtree Ridge and LSU Commitment Kevin Minter. Minter was everywhere on defense for the Lions. He's got size, speed, instincts "want-to", everything Scouts look for in a linebacker. If he continues to play on the next level the way he played his senior season, he'll be a star for the Tigers of LSU.

This event included many Division 1 and BCS level prospects, including those going to Georgia, Georgia Tech, and South Carolina, plus fellow LSU signee Drayton Calhoun. Kennedy singled out Minter for the high praise of "If [I] could take one player," it would be Kevin Minter. This is a very exciting prospect, who could end up at middle linebacker or at outside linebacker for the Tigers.

If there is one area of performance you cannot see in his film and would like to know more about, it is his performance in coverage in the passing game. This is not at all unusual at all for a linebacker to not have this in his film. Linebacker film tends to focus on big hits and disruptions rushing the passer. They do not often focus on a linebacker covering a running back or tight end. It's just not as fun for the typical recruiting watcher. Personally though, I like to see it just because I know how important it is at the next level. You cannot play linebacker at a place like LSU until you become at least semi-competent at playing pass coverage.

His extra semester and his participation in Spring Practice will be big for Minter. It would not shock me if he breaks into the two-deep this year. We have 5 experienced linebackers in Jacob Cutrera, Harry Coleman, Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, and Ryan Baker. We also have redshirt freshman Kyle Prater returning, plus incoming freshmen Barkevious Mingo, Lamin Barrow, and possibly Tahj Jones. Barring injury, there may be no need to play Minter, but his future is very bright and there will be lots of room for a new linebacker in the lineup next year and if Minter is at the head of the line going for those open positions, he will probably play to get some experience this year.

Class of 2009: LB Tahj Jones

Richard Pittman — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:00:10 -0000

via media.scout.com

Sulphur, Louisiana, linebacker Tahj Jones is another linebacker prospect about whom there is much to like, but like with Lamin Barrow, there are obstacles there that may or may not be surmountable. In many ways though, Jones is the anti-Barrow. While Barrow had the size and strength to be an outstanding linebacker but needs to work on playing with speed and aggressiveness, Tahj Jones plays with plenty of speed and aggressiveness, but at 6'2" and 200# give or take, he will have to get bigger to be a useful linebacker. For that reason, Jones is a project, the final project we will be profiling here.

Jones was a very productive player in Louisiana high school football, earning Class 5A All-State honors. His highlights are pretty impressive as well. He is a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who the coaches will stick on the outside and tell him to make plays from the middle of the field to the sideline. He reminds me a fair bit of Rennie Curran or Ryan Baker, both of whom are smallish but fast and aggressive linebackers. Curran is an All-SEC guy and Baker is a very solid young reserve for LSU. The problem is that as a linebacker, he will be called upon to tackle 240# backs who are running at full speed straight at him, at least occasionally. Jones is not a safety, only asked to provide support in those situations; he is a linebacker who will have to be able to stand his ground when the next generation of power back is bearing down on him.

In order to have success at that, Jones will have to gain at least 20 pounds and probably more, and if he can't do so without losing his characteristic speed and quickness, it is hard to see how Jones can be a useful player other than possibly covering kicks.

The other problem with Jones is that he is not yet academically qualified to join the team. I would expect that assuming he gets qualified, he would redshirt his first year while he focuses on going through the workouts and keeping his academics straight.

In Case You Haven't Figured Out, This Will Be Recruiting Week at ATVS

Richard Pittman — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 09:30:09 -0000

First, a congratulations to GasHouseGorillas, who celebrated the birth of his first child yesterday. GasHouseGorillas, in case you didn't know, is my older brother. Liam Casey Pittman was born yesterday at around 11:00am, weighing in at 7 pounds, 2 ounces and measuring an impressive 19.5 inches. Sadly, if the Pittman genes have anything to say about it, great athleticism is probably not in his future, Cousin Kirston notwithstanding.

Continuing on with the topic at hand.

With the Long, Dark Offseason of the Soul continuing for another few weeks, we are scrounging just a bit for topics to discuss here at ATVS. What's good for the bloggers is not necessarily good for the team, as I pointed out in this post about all news being bad news. Things are mighty quiet around the LSU athletic facilities, with nary a serious injury (since the Tim Molten injury), an arrest, or a transfer to discuss. We think transfers are coming, as I think we still have a little ways to go to get under scholarship limits, but they're not out there right now.

So this week, barring the introduction of any real news, we will be going over LSU recruiting for 2010 in the morning, and profiling 2009 signees in the afternoon. The 2009 profiles will continue until we're done with them.

Of course, there may be some real news, as SEC Media Days are upon us starting on Wednesday. Usually, if there is any SEC Media Days news, it is purely of the manufactured variety, and I am not really planning on spending a lot of my energy discussing it. I will, however, be reading Team Speed Kills' coverage, as he should have the hook-up for me. If anything important happens in Birmingham, he'll tell us all. I'll actually be doing a little podcast with him later this week. Be sure to check that out when it happens.

In the meantime, a little 2010 recruiting is in order. First, I would like to quote an article I wrote back in March on the subject of 2010 recruiting, back when little was known about most of the recruits we'll be signing:

For reasons I can't entirely explain, we seem to have a two-year cycle on the perception of in-state recruiting and our ability to recruit great players from out of state. For example, 2007 was a banner year for recruiting in the State of Louisiana, with two 5-star players produced by the state: Joe McKnight and Chad Jones, along with several very highly regarded 4-star type players. Not only that, but LSU's recruiting class was widely considered about the most solid in the country, with 21 four- and five-star commitments signed, including 5-star Terrance Toliver, and only a handful of 3-stars. This resulted in a #4 ranking according to Rivals, and was generally considered to be an outstanding class.

Contrast that with the 2008 recruiting class. It was much more heavily weighted towards 3-stars, with thirteen 3-star players signed, along with thirteen 4- and 5-star players. There were no in-state 5-stars. With the exception of Patrick Peterson (formerly Patrick Johnson), our out-of-state recruiting was considered lackluster, as it was believed we got a lot of guys who were other teams' leftovers. Examples include Derrick Bryant, Alex Hurst, and Kyle Prater, 3-stars out of Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas respectively. It was considered a down year and was ranked #11 by Rivals (fourth in the SEC).

The early results on both of these classes (keeping in mind that the 2007 class has had an extra year to develop and an extra year to have players wash out) is that these classes are more-or-less equal. From the 2007 class, we had 4 players get essentially a starters' share of playing time last year: Chad Jones, Terrance Toliver, Joseph Barksdale, and Jarrett Lee. Kicker/punter Josh Jasper was also a big contributor. A couple players slid right into backup positions and appear to be poised to be starters this year: Drake Nevis, Josh Dworaczyk and Will Blackwell. A few more have contributed as backups and on special teams and look to stay in those positions for now while they wait for more experienced players to clear out: Stevan Ridley, Phelon Jones, Ron Brooks, Mitch Joseph, etc., etc.

But look at the 2008 class. The QB from the 2008 class appears to have beaten out the QB from the 2007 class for the starter job, despite one fewer year in the system. Patrick Peterson beat out all the 2007 corners signed and became a starter. Ryan Baker was a monster on special teams and looks like he might win a starter's position this year. Brandon Taylor will compete as well, now and in the future. Offensive lineman Alex Hurst is drawing raves and many close to the program believe he'll be one of the next outstanding LSU offensive linemen, and he was one of the "leftovers".

My conclusion is that, at this time, it appears the 2008 LSU recruiting class was just as good as the 2007 class. It's hard to say how much of that was the 2007 class being overrated (just look at the guys who left the program without ever contributing: Jordon Corbin (sadly, due to injuries), Delvin Breaux (likewise), Jarvis Jones (kicked off; not to mention the ones who just don't look like they're going to be good players (no names mentioned at this time), and how much of it was the 2008 class being underrated.* I think it's a little of both.

That's my conclusion. My point is that the 2009 class was highly regarded, both in- and out-of-state, and so we're due for a down cycle in perception. The 2010 Louisiana recruiting class is not considered to be as great as the 2009 class or the 2007 class. It's considered more like the 2008 class. I wouldn't buy it though. Try not to get too high about the highs or too low about the lows. There will be lots of solid players in this class from the State of Louisiana. We will also sign some very good players from out of state, maybe even some real blue chippers.

Just calibrate your conclusions according to the inevitable result that it will be perceived to be middling. I think it's just part of the psyche of LSU fans and of recruiting observers in general. We're coming off a serotonin high of a great recruiting class. It's time for a bit of a come down. It's time, I guess, for the heroin half of our recruiting speedball to kick in (sorry, criminal defense lawyer-mode came out for a second).

I am wrong a LOT. I will be the first to admit that, but sometimes I get it exactly right, and I think this is one of those times.

Right now, LSU has 18 officially recognized commitments for the 2010 class. Ten are listed as 3-stars on Scout. Eight are listed as 3-star (or are unrated) on Rivals. Overall, this is shaping up to be a class more like the 2008 class than like the 2007 or 2009 classes. There are a lot of prospects in this class that are getting little attention nationwide. There are a few sleepers in the class like Sam Gibson (one of my favorite prospects, by the way), Houston Bates, Cameron Fordham, and Elliott Porter.

There are not a high number of in-state prospects that are getting a lot of love from the recruiting media. Rivals only lists 8 Louisiana prospects with 4 stars, and none with 5 stars. I expect two of those (Terrance Broadway and Munchie Legaux) to drop down to 3-stars soon, but they may be replaced by one or more new 4-star prospects. This compares to 14 four- and five-star prospects from the 2009 class, 11 in the 2008 class, and 17 in the 2007 class. This is clearly a year more like 2008 as far as the in-state prospects are perceived.

But as pointed out, the 2008 class appears to be a very good class, with Jordan Jefferson and Patrick Peterson being the headliners of that class so far. Peterson was all-world, but Jefferson was a sleeper who did not earn an offer until after his senior year was finished. The 2008 class was full of players who were probably a little underappreciated, like Karnell Hatcher, Greg Shaw, and Alex Hurst. I am thinking that this 2010 class will probably end up the same way.

Tomorrow and Thursday, we will discuss just a little bit about the little guys (receivers, defensive backs, etc.), and then on Friday we will start to profile some of the linemen that have decided to call LSU home in a year. We'll play it by ear after that, but at some point next week we'll get into the "Where Do We Go From Here" discussion of recruiting.

2009 CFN LSU Preview, Part 2

Richard Pittman — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:37:21 -0000

Yesterday, we discussed CFN's preview of LSU and how it pertained to the new defensive coaching staff, Jordan Jefferson, and a few incoming freshmen. Today, we look at a few more topics.

The 10 Best Players on the Team:

Ten Best Tiger Players
1. WR Brandon LaFell, Sr.
2. RB Charles Scott, Sr.
3. OT Ciron Black, Sr.
4. LB Perry Riley, Sr.
5. DE Rahim Alem, Sr.
6. TE Richard Dickson, Sr.
7. QB Jordan Jefferson, Soph.
8. DT Drake Nevis, Jr.
9. LB/S Harry Coleman, Sr.
10. CB Patrick Peterson, So.

Well, at least he didn't name an incoming freshman as one of our 10 best players.

I think 1 through 3 are right on, or at least I only disagree in their order. I would put Ciron ahead of Charles Scott, but if you asked me who the 3 best players on the team are, those are the three I would name. After that, we start getting into some murky waters on who *I* would name, but CFN pretty much goes off the rails with the #4 pick.

I happen to be quite fond of Perry Riley as a player. When he was a freshman getting mop-up duty, I saw glimpses of a budding star. Last year, as a junior, he finally got a chance to start, and the results were solid, but underwhelming. One of my general principles in observing player development is that "the player you are as a junior is probably the player you will be as a senior." By your junior year you have some experience on the field. You should know the system. Your body should be fully matured and you should be in the best shape you'l ever be in. I have no empirical data to back this up, but I firmly suspect that the vast majority of players in college football do not make great strides in their game between their junior and senior seasons.

This is no indictment of Perry Riley. I think he's a fine player and a solid linebacker for us. I just do not believe he is going to be in the same stratosphere with guys like Rennie Curran, Brandon Spikes, and Rolando McClain. And who knows? There's reason to believe that last year's team didn't get all it could get out of the linebackers. Maybe Perry Riley is a coiled spring ready to be released. Pete Fiutak seems to think so:

Best Defensive Player: Senior LB Perry Riley. DE Rahim Alem should be the team's star pass rusher and he should be an all-SEC selection, while tackle Drake Nevis could grow into the special player to build around. But it's Riley who has the size, range, and experience to be the biggest playmaker in the more aggressive system and he should be a stat-sheet filler on the outside in a veteran linebacking corps.

If this is true of Riley, then either he greatly improved in the offseason, or our defensive coaches were worse than we thought last year.

After Riley, the next two are very defensible. Rahim Alem is, after all, a returning 1st team All-SEC performer. Many people would place him even further up this list, perhaps even at #1. Richard Dickson is an experienced and consistently productive tight end whose blocking skills are greatly underrated in my opinion.

Here is also, though, where we get to an omission. We all know what kind of an athlete Chad Jones is. How many starting free safeties are also the best left-handed pitcher on his particular campus? And bat over .300? And can chase down Darren McFadden from behind? Yes, it's not like Chad Jones tore it up last year, but Fiutak has shown himself to not be shy about projecting great increases in production from year to year (see Riley, Perry). If you're going to project that sort of thing, Jones is the better candidate. It is widely acknowledged, even by Jones himself, that he was misused last year, moving from position to position between plays, confusing him and leading often to him being out of position or scrambling even to get on the field. With him parked at the free safety spot, a monster year can be expected of him.

After this, I think it becomes very difficult to differentiate between a number of possible candidates to add to the 10 best. Here is my list:

1. Brandon Lafell, Sr. WR
2. Ciron Black, Sr., OL
3. Charles Scott, Sr., RB
4. Rahim Alem, Sr., DE
5. Chad Jones, Jr., S
6. Richard Dickson, Sr., TE
7. Patrick Peterson, So., CB
8. Drake Nevis, Jr., DT
9. Lyle Hitt, Sr., OL
10. Perry Riley, Sr., LB

That's right. I put Perry Riley in the top 10 anyway, but really at this point you could have put Harry Coleman, Keiland Williams, Joseph Barksdale, Chris Hawkins, Jacob Cutrera, Josh Jasper, or even special teams sensation Ryan Baker.

On LSU's Schedule:

LSU isn't exactly extending itself in the non-conference slate, even though it's not the program's fault that Washington stinks. The SEC schedule is nasty with Georgia and Florida to deal with from the East, while trips to Alabama and Ole Miss in November could end any hopes of winning the SEC West. Holding serve at home, even against Florida and Auburn, will be a must with three road trips in four weeks down the stretch. The battle against the Gators on October 10th could be a preview of the SEC Championship

...

The season will be a success if ... LSU wins the SEC West. Just getting to Atlanta for the SEC title will require a war and a negotiation of landmines with road trips to Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss to deal with, along with home games against Florida and Auburn. But this is LSU, and to shoot for anything less than the SEC title is selling the team short after loading up with talented recruiting class after talented recruiting class.

Nov. 7 at Alabama. The Tigers can split against Georgia and Florida from the East and still win the West, but it'll take wins at Alabama and Ole Miss to get the job done. If they lose to the Tide, the game in Oxford will end up being to shake out the pecking order for the bowls. If they can beat their old head coach, Nick Saban, and get a little revenge after losing last year's thriller, then LSU will be in the thick of the SEC title hunt.

I will have a lot more thoughts on this particular subject later. It is pretty much unmistakable that our nonconference schedule (@Washington, UL-Lafayette, @Tulane, La Tech) is a sure 4 wins with probably not a game in there that will be closer than a 20 point differential. We also have what appears to be the toughest conference slate of anyone. (@Georgia, Florida, @Alabama, @Ole Miss). My quick thoughts on that are, a) I think Georgia is better than most people think, b) Florida is a tall order for this or any other team to beat, but at least we get them at home, c) Bama's offense is not going to be nearly as good as it was last year but the defense should be stellar barring injuries, and d) Ole Miss isn't sneaking up on anyone this time around.

Our other four conference games are Vandy, @Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas. Vandy should be halfway decent, but I don't think they're in our class. Mississippi State is going to struggle. I keep going back and forth on Auburn between thinking they'll be better than everyone expected and realizing that their head coach has a career 5-19 record. Arkansas is a very solid team who can and may beat anyone on their schedule, including us.

Its a difficult schedule, but every one of these games is winnable. We have 3 sets of 4 games. Four nonconference games that should not be particularly stressful. Four conference games against teams that are probably not as good as us, but we need to avoid let-downs to avoid upsets. Four conference games against very good teams. The key I think will be avoiding upsets against the 8 teams we really should beat. If we do that, we really have something to play for in the 4 games against really good teams.

That's all for today. We continue this series tomorrow with even more thoughts on the schedule and other topics.

Quick Hits: Wednesday Edition

Richard Pittman — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 02:20:57 -0000

The poster Drake870 on Tigerbait is claiming that this is a picture of Demetrius Byrd's crashed car. There's a lot of contradictory information coming out about his wreck. His agent claims his injuries are limited to bumps and bruises. Yet, he is definitely in intensive care. Les Miles' statement was, "This tragic accident puts in perspective just how fragile life can be." That hardly says to me "bumps and bruises". We'll know more when we know more.
For the life of me I cannot gin up any motivation to write about the upcoming draft. LSU has several players likely to be drafted. Tyson Jackson is a likely first round pick. Darry Beckwith may be drafted in the second round, or may slip a little further. Herman Johnson figures to be picked in the middle rounds. Demetrius Byrd.. was expected to be a mid- to late-round pick, and may yet be if his health can be verified.
Mrs. ATVS, Little Miss ATVS, Mrs. ATVS's family, and myself all made it to the Bama A-Day game. After sitting through one half of an intrasquad scrimmage, I can understand why LSU fans don't really show up for them. News flash: football is boring when the game doesn't matter, and it's confusing to watch football when you can read every single play as good or as bad depending on whether you choose to root for the defense this play or for the offense.
Spring games are pointless. We should either hype it up and get ESPN to cover it or we should just do away with it and have a practice. The middle road we take seems to combine the worst of all worlds. We get the recruits into the stadium and then bore them to tears with a disinterested fan base. Not that I'm blaming the fans. The whole exercise is snooze-inducing and honestly I'd rather not ever go to another Spring Game.
No news in basketball recruiting with the spring signing period in full swing. We've added no one yet.
I went an entire college football season without watching College Football Gameday a couple years ago. I think I might do the same with the NFL Draft. It's losing its spark, in part because there's no excitement to having a high draft pick. In any salary-capped environment, the biggest sin you can commit is to overpay someone. The top 5 or top 10 picks get so much money that they're only worth it IF THEY PAN OUT, which is only about half the time. So every time you get a pick in that range, you have about a 50/50 shot of it becoming an albatross that sets your program back years. With the top picks becoming near-toxic, it has cast a pall over the whole pageant. The NFL needs to reign in draft pick salaries to make top picks actually a nice bonus for a team rather than a detriment.
Some position battles that are going to continue into the Summer and Fall: the battle to be 3rd, 4th, and 5th wide receiver behind Toliver and Lafell; the battle for linebacker duties between Riley, Sheppard, Cutrera, Harry Coleman, and Ryan Baker (though people seem to think Baker is on the outside looking in right now); the battle to be in the two-deep on the defensive line; cornerback opposite Patrick Peterson.

That's about it for now. I know this was kind of a hit-and-run thing. These are just topics I wanted to touch on but didn't think warranted a full post.