SB Nation - Rock Keys

Official Game Prediction Thread

CardsFan922 — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:17:20 -0000

So...close...can't...reach...it...

I'll start this off with the easiest prediction: at some point on Saturday, Scott Long will be overthrown and thisclosejustbarelyalmost catch it. Also, I will be strangely nervous and hopeful from about 11 AM until about 5 minutes into the game, at which point I will either turn into the 2006 game watching CardsFan922 (every play matters!) or the 2007-2008 game watching CardsFan922 (gallows humor and self-protecting indifference). I know that much is true.

On an intellectual level, I don't see how we can pull this one out. UK's defense, while not as good as last year, is still the better of their two units. Their defensive line is solid and our offensive line wasn't exactly blowing ISU's doors off last week to open holes for Vic and Powell. Burke made some nice passes in the 2nd half, but if he was a little too hyped up to hit wide-open guys in the first quarter at home against a high school team, something tells me starting on the road, in his hometown, on national television....let's just say the kid has a right to be nervous. And who will stop Randall Cobb and/or Chris Matthews?

There's not much I have to say about this game that Mike won't cover or hasn't covered all week. For us to win, the following things have to happen:

1) Vic Anderson rushes for more than 85 yards and Vic/Powell/Ashley combine for at least 100 yards total.

2) We have a +3 or better turnover margin, including a TAINT or other defensive / special teams points.

3) We have a +3 or sack margin.

4) Somehow stop Cobb and Matthews from going off - combination of defensive pressure + the dozens of new players in the secondary holding their own + stopping the run game with just the D-line + pressure on Hartline (see above).

Of the four, I think stopping Cobb and Matthews will be the hardest, if not most impossible, task. I think we'll score an offensive touchdown in this year's game (I just threw up in my mouth) and I think Burke/Froman and Long will hook up for some big gains. But I just don't see us winning a shoot-out or a 10-7 defensive struggle.

Official predictions....after the jump....

Final Score: Kentucky 38 - 21 Louisville

Anderson / Total Rush Yards: 54 / 95

Kentucky Rushing Yards: 127

Scott Long: 1 TD

Best UofL Defensive Game: Johnny Patrick

Biggest Hit: Brandon Heath

Biggest Boneheaded Krag Call: Fake punt or going for it on 4th down and medium, up 3-0, midway through first quarter, on our own 24 yard line. Resulting in turnover on downs, UK 1-play, 22 yard scoring drive for a touchdown.

First Appearance By Adam Froman: First offensive possession of 2nd quarter (and no more Burke after that).

Rock Keys: Sadly, no.

Glimmer of Hope On Which To Hang Hat: Preston Pace plays reasonably well.

Most Run Commercial: Gold into Cash, and/or 5 awkward Billy Mays commercials (we are on ESPNU, remember).

Everyone feel free to make their own predictions according to these categories, or come up with your own. The CardChronicle staff will assign points/weights to each category, judge the winner on Sunday, and then come over to the winner's house to fully cater a 3-course dinner for a party of 6-10, pants optional. CardChronicle staff reserves the right to not actually do this.

Rivalry Week Wednesday links

Mike Rutherford — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:34:16 -0000

--We're now a mere 72 hours away from the big game, and....still nothing. No trash talk, no car flags, no hideous logo-embroidered dress shirts at work. Louisville fans still think they're about to get smacked and Kentucky fans are still too nervous to gloat.

I really think all this stems from the fact that Cardinal fans have gotten so used to success that a healthy dose of failure has made them overly pessimistic. On the other hand, the members of Big Blue Nation are so used to looking forward to football season solely because of tailgating that they're overly cautious even after enjoying a healthy dose of success.

These ingredients, combined with a few more, have resulted in the big bowl of silence that has been this week.

--And then there's A Sea of Blue's Ken Howlett, who throws caution to the wind and offers up four reasons why Kentucky rolls on Saturday.

4. 27 - 2 -- The score of last season's Governor's Cup contest might seem irrelevant, and it probably is, but I can't help but come back to this -- Last year, U of L played Kentucky at home, with a new starting quarterback in Hunter Cantwell; this year, U of L plays Kentucky on the road, with once again, a new starting quarterback. Last year, U of L played Kentucky at home, against a defense superior to the Cardinal offense; this year, U of L plays Kentucky on the road, against a defense seemingly superior to the Cardinal offense. Last year, U of L played Kentucky at home, while the 'Cats broke-in a new quarterback; this year, U of L plays Kentucky on the road, while the 'Cats sport a significantly improved, and more experienced quarterback. Last year, U of L lost to Kentucky, at home, 27-2; this year U of L ...

--Even if U of L fans aren't fired up, Steve Kragthorpe is. Don't believe me? Check out this tweet from last night.

Great attention to detail in our special teams units today in practice. Goettsche kicked the ball well. Great hang time and distance.

The Battle for the Governor's Cup always brings out his inner Ali.

--Speaking of special teams, Kragthorpe will name his starting kicker - Chris Philpott or Ryan Payne - on Thursday.

--Mark Maloney writes about Lexington natives Pete Nochta and Daniel Covington coming home to play inside Commonwealth Stadium, and both men represent the U of L program very well.

Covington, U of L's second-leading tackler last season (66), has no complaints this year, even though junior-college transfer Terrence Simien has taken his starting job.

"It's not been tough to take," said Covington, who had two tackles in the opener. "It's whatever's best for the team."

Nochta also gets himself back in my good graces by admitting how little he cares for the Kentucky football program.

What if he had to choose between beating UK or winning a Big East title?

"I really don't like them so I'm going to have to say Kentucky," said Nochta, whose dad, John, played for UK and is principal at Henry Clay High School. "Then we'll see what happens down the road, try to knock them both out."

--Not representing his program well: UK linebacker Ridge Wilson, who has officially been suspended for the Louisville game after being charged with fourth-degree assault.

--There a few legitimate reasons for Kentucky to be afraid of Louisville, one of them being Trent Guy's ability to bust the big one on kick returns.

Fear of kick returns: Brooks' voice rose a couple of octaves during his Monday press luncheon when asked about kick coverage. He wasn't auditioning for American Idol.

Tim Masthay is gone. So touchbacks are gone. Against Miami, on average, UK's seven kickoffs reached the RedHawks' 9-yard line. Luckily, Miami didn't possess a dangerous return man.

Louisville does have a dangerous return man. Two years ago at Commonwealth, Trent Guy returned a kickoff 100 yards for a score. He's still around. And chances are, he'll get some chances to repeat that feat Saturday.

The C-J's Brett Dawson also tackles the topic.

It doesn't have to come via a kick return, but there is zero chance (zero chance!) that Louisville wins this game without at least one giant, non-offensive play. Could it be a 70-yard behind-the-back pass from Goettsche to Rock Keys? Of course it could.

--ESPN's Pat Forde gives the game a line in the latest installment of his Forde Yard Dash.

And this week's rivalry game, Louisville-Kentucky (16), is still better off as a season opener (which it is when played at Louisville) than as an anonymous third-week game (which it is when played at Kentucky).

--Wednesday is apparently D-Line focus day on game week, as C.L. Brown and Chip Cosby take a look at the unit for the Cards and the Cats, respectively.

--The more I hear from him, the more I like Justin Burke.

It's a compliment he takes with a grain of salt. He'd like to think he's athletic too, but he doesn't think being hailed for his intelligence works against him.

"I like to be seen as the unathletic nerd," Burke said. "That's my thing, because then when you step on the field you can get an edge on people. I mean, I don't wear Poindexter glasses or anything. I'm still a competitive football player out there - let's not get that mistaken."

...

It's a challenge Burke has been thinking about since arriving on campus more than a year ago. Though he remained neutral about the rivalry growing up, he's a full-fledged Cardinal now. And the city where he grew up is a decidedly different place now that he's wearing red and not Kentucky blue.

"Right now, it's like a foreign city to me," he said. "There's the Burke complex and then there's the rest of the city. I don't feel like I can go out very comfortably anymore around there."

I can't help but say it. If, IF, we beat these guys, how fantastic would it be?

Pants-shedding fantastic.

Your 2008 Louisville Football awards

Mike Rutherford — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 08:48:27 -0000

The most important step on any particularly difficult road to closure is acknowledging the existence of an unpleasant reality. So while the best healing approach at the moment may seem to be to deny that the 2008 Louisville football season ever took place, or to admit its presence but add that it ended in 1997, neither is actually a healthy option.

So let's go ahead and face this thing, head-on, together. We'll hand out some awards, have some laughs, shed some tears, break some shit, then chuck this season in a box and stick a small, vomit-colored bow on top.

My hand is here; feel free to reach for it if need be.

Offensive MVP: Victor Anderson

There was much chatter during the spring and summer months that Anderson was going to be the surprise of the season, but nobody was so bold as to predict that the St. X product would race past the 1,000-yard mark, shatter the U of L freshman rushing record and earn Big East Rookie of the Year and Sporting News Freshman All-American honors.

Again, our lone beacon of sanguinity for the next nine months.

CONTENDERS:

Eric Wood

George Bussey

Defensive MVP: Jon Dempsey

The Junior College transfer came in with relatively little hype, but led the Cardinal defense in solo tackles, total tackles and forced fumbles, and trailed only Adrian Grady in tackles for loss. He was the lone Louisville defender to earn All-Big East accolades, garnering a second team nod.

CONTENDERS:

Adrian Grady

Earl Heyman

Best Moment: Cantwell's 24-yard TD pass to Scott Long to give the Cards the lead for good against USF

A tremendous pass and catch that resulted in the feeling that this team could compete for a conference title in a down Big East. True story: they actually called off the rest of the season after that play.

CONTENDERS:

Johnny Patrick's fumble return against Memphis

Adrian Grady scoring against Tennessee Tech

Worst Moment: Myron Pryor's fumble return

Yes, the game was already out-of-hand, but being forced to watch Eric Wood chase Pryor in vain was almost too much to take. It actually might have been too much to take, because I honestly don't remember seeing it live.

CONTENDERS:

Lawrence Wilson's (Connecticut) interception return

The clock hitting zero in the Carrier Dome

Best Play: Victor Anderson's touchdown catch against Connecticut

When he first caught the ball and I saw where the defenders were positioned in front of him, I would have set the odds of Vic getting the ball into the endzone at no better than 10:1. This was the moment I officially climbed on the No. 20 bandwagon.

CONTENDERS:

Cantwell to Long against South Florida

Travis Norton tackling Jourdan Brooks by his hair against Rutgers

Best Game (For Louisville): Louisville 24, South Florida 20

Ah, back when the only question was which bowl this team would end up playing in.

CONTENDERS:

Louisville 38, Kansas State 29

Louisville 51, Tennessee Tech 10

Worst Game (For Louisville): Syracuse 28, Louisville 21

Kentucky sucked because it was the first game of a season so many were already anxious about (and because it was Kentucky), Rutgers sucked because it was just about the most humiliating thing I've ever had to sit through as a sports fan, but the Syracuse loss coming just a week after the South Florida win re-introduced the notion that something was seriously, seriously wrong with the program, and that - I think - makes it just a touch more depressing than the competition.

CONTENDERS

Kentucky 27, Louisville 2

Rutgers 63, Louisville 14

Best Game (Overall): Louisville 24, South Florida 20

Extremely slim pickins here, but Louisville's top triumph of the season also came in the contest that most resembled an actual big-time college football game.

CONTENDERS

West Virginia 35, Louisville 21

Connecticut 26, Louisville 21

Best Individual Offensive Performance: Victor Anderson against Kansas State

Going off for 176 yards and three scores on just 18 carries and two receptions will do that for you.

CONTENDERS:

Victor Anderson vs. Middle Tennessee State

Hunter Cantwell vs. Kansas State

Best Individual Defensive Performance: Johnny Patrick against Memphis

JP was named the Big East Defensive Player of the Week after his 19-yard fumble return for a touchdown propelled the Cards to a 35-28 win over the Tigers. He finished the game with six tackles and figured in a potential 10-point swing at the end of the first half when he blocked a field goal that was returned for a U of L touchdown.

CONTENDERS

Adrian Grady vs. South Florida

Jon Dempsey vs. Kentucky

Best Individual Performance by an Opposing Player: Pat White (West Virginia)

Yet another remarkable performance by White, who will finish his college career having rushed for 8,657 yards and 32 touchdowns and thrown for 11,998 yards and 51 more scores in just four games against Louisville. He also hired Ron Cooper and hit a halfcourt shot to knock the Cardinal basketball team out of the 1981 NCAA Tournament.

CONTENDERS:

Mike Teel (Rutgers)

Donald Brown (Connecticut)

Least Reliable Body Part: Scott Long's knee

I don't think a completely healthy Scott Long for the whole year would have resulted in two or three more victories, but this offense desperately needed a legitimate deep threat and No. 84 was the only one it had. Him being out for nine games and only being truly healthy for one was a far bigger blow than some are willing to acknowledge.

CONTENDERS:

Latarrius Thomas's knee

Trent Guy's whatever kept him out most of the last month of the season

Most Appearances by a Penalty: Not enough men on the line of scrimmage

I might have seen this penalty called twice during all the hours I spent watching NFL or other college games this season, and somehow I don't think there was a U of L tilt over the past three months where the Cardinals weren't flagged for it more than once. Amazing, really.

CONTENDERS:

Holding

Kicking the ball out-of-bounds

Worst Coaching Decision: The 3rd and 23 draw to Brock Bolen against Cincinnati

Not because it wasn't a play designed to pick up a first down, and not because it went to Bolen (well, kind of because it went to Bolen), but because it was a play designed to set up a 45-yard field goal try for a kid the staff hadn't been confident enough to let try a 25-yarder on 4th and 6 or 4th and 3 earlier in the game.

CONTENDERS:

The deadball timeout against Connecticut

Making a big deal out of Cincinnati players praying around the Cardinal bird

Biggest Personal Overreaction (Positive or Negative): The Zack Stoudt jersey throw after the Bilal Powell fumble and TD against Kentucky

Yes, it was a big play, and yes, nobody else saw it, but it was still incredibly premature and unnecessary.

CONTENDERS:

Crazy fist pumping and screaming among an otherwise tame group after the Long TD against South Florida

Getting hammered in a giant Snoopy head after the Syracuse loss

Best Kragism: "We’re frustrated with productivity in terms of points."

It's a solid aspect of productivity to be frustrated with.

CONTENDERS:

"I don't judge games by the score, I judge them by what I see on film."

"I think (now former Syracuse head coach) Greg Robinson is doing a nice job there. He's building the program there. I know he hasn't seen the fruit of his labor yet, but I think he's done a good job. I think they're very, very well-coached in all three phases of the game. We know we're going to have our hands full up in the Dome. We've never played well there. We know we're going to have to play our 'A' game when we go up there."

Best Performance by a Player Who Never Saw the Field: Rock Keys

He was like Titanic in '97.

CONTENDERS:

Zack Stoudt

Will Stein

Best Reason to be Optimistic about the 2009 Season: Victor Anderson being alive

I was going to add "and healthy," but a one-legged Vic is still probably more of a reason to be excited about the Tennessee State - or whoever the hell we play in next year's opener - game than just about anything else.

CONTENDERS:

The potential of a healthy Scott Long/Trent Guy/Doug Beaumont receiving trio

Alcohol