SB Nation - Darryl Stonum

Michigan preview

BoilerTMill — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:59:54 -0000

It has come to this. All of the dreams we have of playing in a bowl this football season come down to winning in Ann Arbor. Doing so would be the first such victory since Griese was at quarterback. I don't mean Brian in the late 90's for the Wolverines either. Our favorite taco-loving announcer was Purdue's quarterback on October 15, 1966 when we won 22-21 in Ann Arbor.

It is a difficult position to be in, but I wouldn't have it any other way. When I was in school, I always tackled the hardest projects first. I knew if I could finish them, everything else would be easy. That is what we face now. Winning at Michigan is the most difficult of our remaining three games. Win, and we have a better chance to win the final two games. Lose, and it is all about building for next year.

Before the season, this was the only loss I had put in sharpie, as the Boiled Sports guys say. I even gave us a chance against Ohio State at home because we play the Buckeyes well and we were at home. Michigan is quite different. In the three victories over Michigan I have personally witnessed (1996, 2000, 2008) we have had to hang on until the final play in each one. Don't even get me started on our visits to Ann Arbor, which have gone as follows:

1969: L 20-31

1972: L 6-9

1974: L 0-51

1975: L 0-28

1978: L 6-24

1980: L 0-26 (This loss cost us the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl that season)

1982: L 21-52

1983: L 10-42

1985: L 0-47

1989: L 27-42

1991: L 0-42

1993: L 10-25

1995: L 0-5

1999: L 12-38 (Our other four losses that season were by a touchdown or less)

2001: L 10-24

2003: L 3-31 (This also cost us the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl)

2007: L 21-48

That is 17 straight losses at the Big House. In six of those games we didn't even score a single point. Kyle Orton, Drew Brees, Mark Herrman, and Jim Everett never even came close to a win. Shoot, Rick Trefzger in 1995 came closer than any of them. This is what we have to look forward to on Saturday. There is good news though: Joey Elliott led a pair of touchdown drives in the last two minutes during our last visit, so he had a better game in half a quarter than most Purdue quarterbacks.

A rare close game by Purdue at the Big House.

2009 Record: 5-4, 1-4 Big Ten

2008 Record: 3-9, 2-6 Big Ten

Bowl Result: none

Blog Representation: MGoBlog, MVictors, Varsity Blue, Michigan Sports Center, iBlog for Cookies, Maize'n'Brew, Maize & Blue Nation

Series with Purdue: Michigan leads 41-13-0

Last Purdue win: 11/1/2008 at Purdue 48-42

Last Michigan win: 10/13/2007 at Michigan 48-21

It is hard to believe that Michigan started 4-0, but their one win since came in a D-1AA exhibition against Delaware State. Even more unbelievably, they got drilled by an awful Illinois team last week. I can't figure this team out right now. They haven't even been competitive the last two weeks against two teams (Penn State and Illinois) they have historically dominated.

Michigan offense:

The key to any victory this time around will be stopping the Wolverines in the first quarter. Michigan has scored 111 points this season it the first quarter of their nine games. By comparison, they have just 28 third quarter points in that time. If we can prevent them from jumping on us early we have a chance. I am also encouraged that they run a similar offensive style to Oregon. Our defense did a good job of stopping the Ducks (remember, 17 of the 38 points given up were because of turnovers) and Oregon has better personnel running it.

We will definitely see two quarterbacks. Tate Forcier (107-193-5) has nine touchdowns and 1,429 yards passing. He is by far the bigger passing threat. Denard Robinson (11-22-4) has two touchdowns and 179 yards passing. With four interceptions in 22 attempts we want him to throw. Make no mistake. This is by far a run first team. Robinson has rushed for 287 yards and five touchdowns while Forcier has 214 and two scores.

Even though we won last year, we couldn't stop an offense that had struggled all year. They have been more successful this season, so we had better hope we have improved in that area. Brandon Minor (332-5) had a field day against us, going for a career high 155 yards and three scores, but he has been battling injuries of late. Carlos Brown (465-4) leads the team in rushing, but Michigan is at its best when it is spreading the ball around in the running game. Vincent Smith (208-1) and Michael Shaw (181-2) have been known to get in on the action too.

While Michigan's passing game isn't highly productive, it is balanced. Martavious Odoms (22-272-1) is the leading receiver, but Greg Mathews (18-204-1), Kevin Koger (15-211-2), Junior Hemingway (13-233-2), and Darryl Stonum (12-189-1) provide balance across the board. Roy Roundtree, yes that Roy Roundtree, has produced 6 catches for 136 yards and a score.

Michigan has had some issues of late with the offensive line. The unit has given up 19 sacks on the season, and has had some trouble opening holes for the running game. This is not a hulking line like Wisconsin's last week. Four of five starters are under 300 pounds, while Stephen Schilling is the biggest guy at 304 pounds. We should have some room to operate and be disruptive with our defensive line this week.

Michigan Defense:

This is where Purdue has struggled historically. They have been unable to generate any points against the Wolverines. In the four games in which Purdue topped 20 points during this streak most of them came after game was well decided. It is not so much that Michigan has had a lights out defense in that time. It has just been that Purdue has been unable to do anything against it.

Our offensive line could have its hands full with Brandon Graham at the end position., Graham has 6.5 sacks on the season, 17.5 tackles for loss, and is generally a disruptive force in the defensive backfield. Defensive tackle Ryan Van Bergen (32 tackles, four sacks) can also cause some problems. Michigan typically goes with a 3-4 set as opposed to the 4-3's we have seen most of the year. That means faster linebackers will be on the field, but there could be more room to run.

Obi Ezeh is the most active of those linebackers, leading the team with 63 tackles. Stevie Brown (55 tackles), Jonas Mouton (53 tackles) and Craig Roh the the remaining linebackers. It is an interesting mix of youth and experience as Ezeh, Mouton, and Brown are seniors while Roh is a true freshman.

Michigan has had some problems in the secondary. Donovan Warren is a solid cornerback with three interceptions, but they are hurting from the loss of Boubacar Cissoko, who was dismissed form the team before last week's game against Illinois. Troy Woolfolk and Michael Williams man the safety positions, but neither has an interception this season.

Michigan should be more vulnerable to the running game than Wisconsin. Illinois went nuts on the ground last week, and they had no discernable running game until two weeks ago. Their pass defense has been suspect as well. If we can limit turnovers and get back to moving the ball we might have a chance.

Michigan Special Teams:

Behold Zoltan, destroyer of worlds! Zoltan Mesko, aside from having the coolest name in the Big Ten, is a pretty good punter averaging almost 45 yards per kick. It's not like we have a punt return game anyway, so we should get ready to field deep kicks.

Jason Olesnavage is a decent kicker, hitting on 8 of 9 field goals with a long of 44. Bryan Wright is actually a kickoff specialist apart from Olesnavage and Mesko. He is holding teams to about 22 yards per return. Michigan's return game itself is pretty dangerous. We all know what Odoms did to us last year. Stonum has a kickoff return for a touchdown. Also of note, Graham has a blocked punt returned for a score, but it was against Delaware State.

Intangibles:

Do I really need to point it out? The Boiled Sports guys and I discussed how a new coaching staff and new players can make a difference. They do not have the history of the 17 game losing streak on them. The truth is that it hasn't mattered. Every team we have taken up there, with different players, coaches, and philosophies, has gotten drilled for the past 43 years. I gave up two years ago when I went to the game and saw us fall behind 48-7 to a team that got worked by a 1-AA squad. This team has reached a rare level for me. I won't believe we can win there until I see it happen. I held the same attitude toward Notre Dame Stadium until 2004, but even then we had a series of close losses leading up to that win. There is no such history here.

Michigan has ownership over us on their home field rarely seen in college football. It is not that they have won 17 straight. They have done it with just two games being remotely close. Yes we have had some bad teams in this streak, but we have had some very good teams (1999, 2001, and 2003 were all in the top 15 at kickoff) get drilled in Ann Arbor. Technically in 2007 we were ranked at game time, so we have taken a ranked team in our last four trips to the Big House and been outscored 141-46. That is even with two meaningless touchdowns late in our last game.

The numbers are just not there to make me believe we can suddenly turn it around. Right now, I feel more confident about winning in any other venue in the Big Ten, maybe even the country, than I do about winning in Ann Arbor.

Keys to the Game for Purdue:

Catch the football
Limit turnovers
Limit special teams mistakes
Play against the run like we did against Oregon
Don't crap ourselves like we always do in Ann Arbor.

A Consolidated Friday Preview of Minnesota Meh - Hockey v. Alaska-Anchorage, Football v. Sparty.

JG2112 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:00:38 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

SPARTY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Browse more photos »

Let's get hockey out of the way first. Lucia has a mess to figure out (three shutouts, and three losses and a tie in four games so far) and he needs to do it quick before the season spins out of control. The Seawolves provide a nice opportunity to right the ship. Here's a preview from Gopher Puck Live. If things develop this weekend in the rare Friday - Sunday series and warrant a review, you'll get one here.

Now, football. The Michigan State Spartans are coming to town. Gopher Nation talked with The Only Colors yesterday about some aspects of the game tomorrow. It's a critical game for both teams, and it's obviously Sparty's first trip to TCF. It's also another opportunity for Sparty to have a SPARTY NOOOOOOOOO moment.

Don't know what I'm talking about? If any fan base can relate to the SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moment, it's Minnesota. It's the combination of coaching, player, and scheme meltdowns that lead to a ridiculous late-game loss. Sparty has had this happen in comical ways over the years - obviously, having goofs like Bobby Williams and John L. Smith as your coach lead to comedy (on that note, can you believe Nick Saban once coached there?). For a good example, think the 2006 Notre Dame - Sparty game. Sparty surrendered a 37-21 fourth quarter lead in a pouring rainstorm. At home. Good fun - watch it here.

Sparty is having one heck of a run of SPARTY NOOOOOOOO moments this year, though. Take your pick as to which one is the best. Was it against Central Michigan, where the Chippewas recovered an onside kick and got to rekick their last-second field goal after Sparty was offside on a block, shocking the Spartans at home for the third time? Was it against Notre Dame, where Kirk Cousins missed a wide open receiver in the end zone on the game's penultimate play, and threw an INT across his body, on the run, into the center of the defense, on the final relevant play?

How about against Michigan, where Sparty shackled the Wolverines for 56 minutes, but let Tate Forcier construct two touchdowns to Darryl Stonum and Roy Roundtree, one with :09 left in the driving rain with Forcier completely exhausted, before midnight struck for Forcier in overtime? Last Saturday, however, may take the cake. Up by 4, Sparty coach Mark Dantonio decided to revert to a three-man rush until the game's last play, where he rushed seven. Kirk Ferentz called his bluff, motioned Tony Moeaki across the formation, got Marvin McNutt on a one-on-one situation AT THE THREE YARD line, ran a slant, and look at the picture above. Again, ONE ON ONE and a three yard SLANT pass was wide open? Truly, SPARTY NOOOOOOO. The Dantonio face after the TD catch was priceless, and totally deserved for the bitter Spartan coach.

Minnesota can relate to these kind of moments, however (Iowa 1994, Northwestern 2000, Michigan 2003 and 2004, Wisconsin 2005, Texas Tech 2006, the month of November 2008). The rules of college football now dictate that even if both teams wet the bed, someone has to win the game. Who is going to choke less? We'll find out tomorrow.

Before getting to some stats and predictions, a couple notes. First, all the best to Eric Decker. He is proof that the Scout and Rivals guys cannot quantify hard work, talent and perseverance. Think of all the fine receivers Minnesota has had over the years. Decker is the finest this university has ever seen (and Brewster, no, it's not an "excellent opportunity" for your team - losing Decker sucks - you ought to know this from November 2008). Unfortunately, that weird step he took on the out pass against Ohio State will directly affect his financial and football future, as it seems he'll need 5-8 months to recover from surgery on the foot. Whoever drafts this guy is getting a steal. Vikings or Lions, please pick him up.

In case you were wondering, had Glen Mason remained as coach, the Gophers' wideouts this year and last would have been Decker and Wisconsin WR David Gilreath. Gilreath, who decommitted after Mason was fired, would have been nice to have around in Decker's absence, both last year and this.

And if you shutter an envious eye at Spartan LB Greg Jones, the preseason Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, don't be too mad when you realize that Jones also de-committed from Minnesota after Mason was fired. Of course, Mason was a terrible recruiter, so this doesn't matter anymore. Jones and Campbell are similar players in production this year. However, Jones is but a junior while Campbell is gone in 2 months. (also, if you remember seeing starting Cal LB Devin Bishop, well, he had committed twice to Minny before Mason was fired, and he then decommitted to go to Cal.)

Alright, on to Saturday. When I previewed this game in August and debuted the term "Wild Rodent," I predicted a 23-20 win for Michigan State. Things haven't really changed this year to change my prediction in any significant way.

The teams line up pretty well in regard to scoring stats. Michigan State averages 27.25 ppg (57th nationally) and gives up 20.75 ppg (39th). On the other hand, Minnesota averages 21.13 ppg (101st) and gives up 25.13 ppg (70th). Based on these stats, empiricists would expect a 26-21 final score in favor of Sparty. Let's throw a couple more statistical and aesthetic logs on the fire:

(1) The biggest log, of course, is the absence of Decker. There are a couple ways this could go. On the one hand, Weber could look lost without his security blanket, will struggle, causing fan unrest (and let's face it, drunken students and fans will not be quiet on Halloween) and causing the coaches (if they're not oblivious) to play more Gray. On the other hand, Weber may feel more comfortable to spread the ball around to everyone, in turn making the Gopher offense more diverse and dangerous. Of course, this will require the Gopher WRs (Brandon, Stoudermire and Carpenter, in particular) to make plays. The chances are there, although without the Decker double-team, Sparty can commit more defenders to the rush. Spreading Sparty out with the pass may be the way to success.

(2) Michigan State has no such issues in the passing game, which could make tomorrow very depressing for Gopher fans. Sparty is 22nd nationally in passing offense, averaging 273.50 ypg. The Gophers, in contrast, are 77th nationally in pass defense, averaging 229.63 ypg. This despite playing Air Force and a first-time college QB (Paulus) in the opener. Sparty has a quality set of wide receivers: walk-on Blair White (who, conveniently, is also white), Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham and TE Charlie Gantt. As Minnesota gives up one passing touchdown each week where no Gopher defender is within 15 yards of the receiver (Air Force, Purdue, Penn State, Ohio State), expect a similar breakdown or two this week.

(3) Go back to #1. How much will MarQueis Gray play? If he does play, remember a couple of things: (a) Gray led his touchdown drive against the second-string Buckeye defense that had called off the dogs. Sparty's first-string defense is top quality. (b) Gray won't progress much past the first option and will be subject to a tough pass rush. Expect growing pains. (c) Remember, if Gray is in, Greg Jones will likely spy him. I'm not sure that will end too well for Gray. Perhaps Illinois's porous defense is a better week in which to further integrate Gray into the game.

(4) The night experience. Who knows how this will go? On the one hand, drunken students make for a raucous crowd. Will they keep the faith if things go wrong? Will they verbally assault Brewster and Fisch if the playcalling (probably) goes haywire? Will the cold sap the life out of the crowd (I saw this first-hand in Iowa City this year - their Homecoming crowd was dead after the second play of the game, a Stanzi INT for TD. The cold also played a large part in it. Frankly, so did playing Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" when the Hawkeyes re-entered the stadium in the second half.)

Well, both teams are 4-4, which is what we thought they were in August. Sparty needs to recover from its SPARTY NOOOOOO moment last week, and needs to recover to meet its preseason bowl expectations. Minnesota continues to build toward success in 2011 (and fans, stop asking for it, because Tim Brewster's going to be here at least until 2011).

I'm not sure what to expect (though when Dantonio's team falls apart at some point tomorrow, I hope you yell SPARTY NOOOOOOOO), but I do know this. If Sparty gives up more than 20 points in 2009, they lose. I don't think it happens tomorrow (at least in regulation):

Michigan State 24 - Minnesota 20.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Michigan

LVS — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:35:20 -0000

Rawk music, man. Rawk.

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, BIG TEN NETWORK
WEATHER: 50 DEGREES, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN

So, I suppose this is where The Great Redemption Tour begins. We were hoping/expecting a better effort at Wisconsin, and that was shot to hell by the second quarter. So, will the team (defense, really) show up this week? I've talked about the "crossroads" idea in this space for the past two weeks; it was important for the Notre Dame game, and it was even more important last week. But, here it is: win tomorrow, and with games against seemingly-awful Illinois and Northwestern looming, we have a great chance to be 3-1 in Big Ten play heading into the Iowa game. Lose, and it's nearly impossible to concoct a scenario where we even make the freakin' Motor City Bowl. That's what's on the line.

But, apart from the long-view considerations, it'd be a lie to deny that this game means more than most. Of course I want our guys to demolish Michigan tomorrow. We haven't had a winning streak against the Wolverines in more than 40 years. How sweet would that be? And it's absolutely a winnable game: Michigan has an explosive offense but quite possibly the worst (non-Montana State) defense we'll face all season. We can outscore them, but we'll have to show a hell of a lot more moxie and resolve than we've shown the past three weeks. But if our guys can't be motivated for this game, under these circumstances, well HEY LOOK BASKETBALL SEASON STARTS SOON!

---

A legitimate argument can be made that Michigan should have lost to Indiana last week. Michigan was outgained, lost the turnover battle, and would have lost had it not been for Indiana repeatedly settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. (Of course, you can give the Wolverine defense some credit for that, as well.) Previously, as we all know, they won a roller coaster game against Notre Dame wherein they also were outgained. So, this is clearly not an invincible Michigan team, although there's certainly a lot to be said for making big plays at the right time (winning late touchdown drives against ND and Indiana, the quasi-interception last week, etc.). It's something we were tremendous at last season and have been failerrific at so far this one.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: While it would have been difficult not to improve on their 2008 horror show, this year's Michigan offense much more closely approximates what Wolverine fans expected to get with Rich Rodriguez: an often-dominating running attack that nonetheless bears no resemblance to the Carr/Moeller/Schembechler/Crisler/Yost power running games of yore. Michigan will take very few snaps (if any) from under center, and once their quarterback receives the ball, speed, misdirection, and variety are key.

If you've recently eaten your lunch, don't watch.

Michigan has 961 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns on the season so far, compared with 1771 and 17 for the entirety of last season; in this case, stats don't lie. This is an excellent rushing team. Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown are Michigan's primary running backs; in a nutshell, Minor is the more punishing runner of the two, while, as you can see above, Brown is, uh, fast. Maize 'n Brew has been particulary impressed by Brown:

Carlos Brown should never, ever, ever leave the field. Ever. He is by far Michigan's best and most effective back right now. He's showing us a cut back ability I never knew he had. He's running with authority, carrying tacklers for an extra five yards. He's breaking away from everyone. He's our best pass catcher out of the backfield. Never take him out. Ever.

As mentioned, Brown has also shown ability as a receiver: 6 catches for 111 yards (a very impressive 18.5 yards per catch, for a running back no less) and a touchdown already this season.

I'm also concerned about the weird shakeups going on with our defensive line. Blake Treadwell (ok) and Dion Sims (what?) are possible new additions to the d-line this week; I understand that given how things have transpired over the first three games, a change is in order. But seriously, this level of shake-up right before a big game against a team with a dominating rushing attack is not. a. good. thing. Our rush defense's performance against Wisconsin was encouraging to the extent that there were no home runs, but quite discouraging in the sense that, seemingly, whenever they needed yards, they got them. Our rush defense is still better than the pass defense, but I fear that this is a mismatch in Michigan's favor.

Pass offense for Michigan is a huge upgrade over last season, if nothing else, as the FORCIER = ACCURACY bit has at least somewhat been proven to be true. Forcier is completing 62% of his passes -- unspectacular but solid -- and has 7 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions. (One of the interceptions against Indiana was particularly bad.) But Michigan fans are relatively impressed, even by his less impressive performances:

Well, if you were expecting a game where Tate truly played like a freshman, this was it. Even so, he played like a senior leading two critical scoring drives in the fourth quarter. You take the bad with the good sometimes, and dammit, the good keeps prevailing. [ . . . ]

The Kid isn't perfect, but he is really, really good. One thing that I especially liked is that he used his safety valve when the home run wasn't available. The biggest thing he's gotta work on is realizing he's not the most athletic guy on the field anymore, and getting rid of the ball rather than running around like a chicken with his head cut off. It'll come with time, but overall, even though the middle of the game was kinda meh, a good start and finish for Forcier.

I'm completely sure that Forcier will be able to execute the quick slants and the outs that Wisconsin was repeatedly able to use to good effect. However, he is a freshman, and one whose first start on the road is against a major rival. He made mistakes against Indiana and he's going to make mistakes against us; the key will be capitalizing on those mistakes. Our secondary has only two interceptions this season: one was on a terrible throw by Dan LeFevour, and the second was an end-of-the-half Hail Mary by Notre Dame. I'm sure that Mike Valenti won't mind if I appropriate his mantra: our guys need to MAKE PLAYS.

Michigan's wide receivers are solid but unexceptional, and range from the speedy-but-slightly-inept (Darryl Stonum) to the shifty slot guys (Kelvin Grady and Martavious Odoms) to the seemingly-underused outside receiver whom I still have nightmares of gashing us with 40 yard fly rountes (Junior Hemingway). Perhaps the guy I'm most concerned about is Kevin Koger--given the way David Garrett carved us up last week, I'll be concerned about tight ends for the rest of the year. But Koger has shown a penchant for catching everything thrown his way. I expect him to have at least one touchdown. (Late edit: mgoblog agrees with me:)

Given the tendency of the MSU linebackers to suck up against the run and the absolute field day UW tight ends had against Michigan State, this might be the game in which Kevin Koger goes nuts

I don't know what to say about our secondary which hasn't already been said. They're not good. Might as well give Johnny Adams a whirl; how much worse can it get? In other news, getting some pressure on Forcier may be possible due to injuries on Michigan's offensive line: they've struggled particularly on the right side of the line and HOORAY that's where Trevor Anderson lines up. Fingers crossed.

Finally, Denard Robinson will obviously play some at quarterback for Michigan. When he's in the game, use everyone necessary to spy him; he's absurd with his feet but will not beat us passing the ball.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Thankfully, it will be playing against a very poor Michigan defense. Said Brian after the Eastern Michigan game:

The team is basically what we thought it was. If you want to load up against it and grind down the field you'll have success doing it, though I wonder if teams will manage to score a lot of touchdowns with that sort of approach. Michigan's going to bend a lot; hopefully they won't break.

Greg Robinson is busy installing all sorts of different stuff and slants and various games to cover up for the fact that he's got no depth, two seniors, and three walk-ons contributing. I think we're going to see a lot of instances where the games work and Michigan swarms something and a lot of instances where Michigan gets caught and gashed. There are places to attack this defense, and the safeties are going to have to do a lot of cleanup in Big Ten play.

Is there any upside for these guys? Maybe. It is a new system so Michigan is behind mentally and should improve more than veteran units whose failings are more likely to be physical shortcomings than mental errors. Look at Eastern's long touchdown drive: mental error after mental error. If Michigan can fix those things—or, more conservatively, mitigate them—they appear to have the horsepower to be completely mediocre. Again: getting Ezeh and Mouton up to a level where they are decent is the key to the defense's season.

Of course, we haven't proven the ability to grind anyone down thus far. I suppose that if it's going to happen at all, it could happen this week, as Michigan's rush defense is nothing to write home about: 69th in the country at the moment. (But then again, our rush offense is 86th in the country, and that's having played against 3 crappy rush defenses and one mediocre one.) Based on last week's performances, you'd figure that Caper and Winston will pretty much be option 1 and 1A, but they should be strictly be used as a change of pace. (If it rains hard and we can't throw the ball, we're going to lose.)

So, essentially, this is the easiest preview ever. We as MSU fans, should want 2 things from our offense:

Kirk Cousins throwing . . .
. . . to whomever's not being covered by Donovan Warren.

No need to rehash the Cousins/Nichol thing at this point: every Friday night, I say a little prayer that ~~Nichol~~ Cousins will play the whole game; every Saturday, I have a corresponding crisis of faith.

But as to the Donovan Warren thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere. The major thing being lost in all the discussion of the game-ending-interception-that-maybe-wasn't against Indiana is, why were they throwing at Warren in the first place? Michigan's secondary is otherwise terrible:

Whatever lingering hopes you had that the corner spot opposite Warren could turn into a non-liability should be put in the corner and told to be quiet for a while. JT Floyd did better than I thought he did live but still remains a timid redshirt freshman who transparently lacks the speed to be an elite corner. Michigan is going to have to cover up for him. Kovacs is okay but really slow.

Not mentioned in that blurb is that JT Floyd was only getting playing time because Boubacar Cissoko spent the first three games of the season throwing his name into the "WORST MICHIGAN CORNERBACK EVARRR" discussion. Two of Cunningham, Dell, and White will be matched against inferior defensive players. Throw the ball to them, Kirk.

As far as I can tell, only two things will be able to derail our passing game. 1) The weather. Dammit, the weather. 2) If Michigan is able to get lots of pressure on Cousins/Nichol. And, it's possible: Brandon Graham utterly pwn3d the right side of our line last year, and this year's line is obviously banged up:

Starting left guard Joel Foreman didn't play against the Badgers because of an ankle injury. Tackle J'Michael Deane injured his leg earlier this season and also didn't play. Joel Nitchman, a starting center, moved to guard at Wisconsin, while John Stipek once again played center to help fill a void.

Foreman should return to the starting lineup on Saturday, which should be a big boost for the team. In any event, our pass blocking was generally very good in the first three games of the season, but not so much against Wisconsin. Given Michigan's struggles against the pass, I wouldn't be surprised if they'll abandon trying to contain us in the secondary and instead send the house with regularity in the hopes of shutting down the pass that way. (Of course, if they do that, it would behoove us to try to throw screens to Caper, and get tight ends involved with with quick go routes and so forth)

FINAL PREDICTION: Bleh. I felt good about the last two weeks, and I don't about this one, although I'll admit that even after last year's triumph, I still have a mental block regarding us being successful against Michigan. I do think that the coaching staff's relentless focus on this game will help out; last year, we were clearly prepared to play Michigan, as we did a tremendous job of timing their snaps, taking away their preferred wheel routes, and generally calling a pitch-perfect defensive game. I'd love to believe that we can do that again, but we've seen nothing so far to indicate that we can do it. Furthermore, Michigan runs the type of non-traditional spread offense which we've n ever done well against. The weather forecast doesn't make me feel any better. When I talked to Brian earlier this week, I said 41-38 Michigan; I don't think it'll be quite that high scoring, but I still think the general idea's right. 34-31 Michigan.

I beg you to talk me out of this prediction in the comments.

Unit by Unit: Breaking Down Michigan Football's Defense After Its Win Over Indiana

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:30:16 -0000

Time for the second part of our Michigan Indiana Unit by Unit breakdown. Each week we take a hard look at the players and the coaches for each particular unit on the team, and bring them in for a pat on the back or a wag of the finger. After we've looked at each position, we'll give you a final wrap on the team's play on Offense and Defense (Special Teams too!). If you're looking for more detail, game bullets are here, the wrap up is here, the boxscore is here, the general AP recap is here, and the Unit by Unit Breakdown of the Offense is here. If you're looking to peruse the Michigan Official photos from the game, check out this. There are the links, so now let's take a good hard look at....

The Defense

He really could be yelling anything. Photo via John T. Greilick Detroit News.com

When anyone gives up 467 yards to Indiana, they should be concerned. When it's a young Michigan team who really needs its Defense to step up and keep a team below 30 points a game, it could be cause for alarm. However, with six trips inside the red zone, Indiana came away with 4 field goals and just one touchdown. On one hand, two of those field goals came on drives that totaled 34 yards. On the other, Indiana maintained drives of 80, 67, 52, and 70 yards and produced two touchdowns and a pair of field goals. Oh. And the defense gave up an 85 yard touchdown run. It was an odd, odd day. Michigan actually looked truly competent for most of the day, but made some horrible mistakes that cost them yardage at inopportune times. Deficiencies in the Secondary and at Linebacker continue to be exposed while the Defensive Line continues to grow and gain strength and depth. On second glance, the game wasn't nearly as bad as I thought, but it still wasn't good. Hopefully this will help to answer some of your questions and maybe allow you to throw out the brick you've stashed by the TV before you chuck it through the tube this Saturday by offering some reassurance that things might actually be okay in the long run

The Defensive Line

via John T. Greilick Detroit News.com

Hands down the best unit on the defense against Indiana. It wasn't even close. Despite getting just a single sack, I thought the line had one of it's stronger games. I was impressed to see the diversity of names up at the line. Brandon Graham, Ryan Van Bergen, Mike Martin, and Craig Roh all started, but Greg Banks, Renaldo Sagesse, and Brandon Herron all saw playing time. Where the defensive line depth was a serious cause for concern going into the season, a quarter of the way through, it's turning out to be one of our deepest units. I can't believe I'm typing that either. What Robinson has done with this unit borders on amazing. They're not world beaters yet, but they're not the gaping hole feared we might find. In fact, they're actually pretty good.

Brandon Graham was in Ben Chappell's face all day long. Usually double teamed, Graham would shed one or both of the blockers to either disrupt the play or make the tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. He planted Chappell a milisecond after the QB released the ball on several occasions and was generally stout in the running game. There were, however, times that Indiana used his over aggressiveness to their advantage, and ran behind him. Even so, it's hard to find fault in his game. Graham racked up 6 tackles on the day and 1.5 of them of loss, a good number for a safety, let alone a lineman. All of that despite being blatantly held in every game so far. Regardless, he's still getting pressure. When his sacks start to come, they're going to come in bunches.

On the interior, it was a quiet day. Mike Martin, Greg Banks and Renaldo Sagesse all played well, with Martin leading the way. Martin was stout all day, and managed to shed the double teams for the occasional penetration into the backfield. But for the most part, with Indiana running to the corners or throwing on three step drops, his presence was largely in support. I was surprised to see Banks play as much as he has and be as effective in the middle as he has. Sagesse was only in for a handful of downs and didn't do anything to make me notice him. I point this out because Indiana spent the majority of their day running directly behind their left tackle and guard. They didn't seem afraid to run directly at Graham, though they did double him when they went his direction. The point is they avoided Martin like the plague.

(more after the Jump.......)

Ryan Van Bergen on the other hand, well, he had an interesting day. He was tipping passes, dropping into coverage, stuffing the run, missing a crucial assignment (or so he says), then singlehandedly destroying an Indiana drive. RVB is really a jack of all trades for Greg Robinson and his staff. They dropped him into coverage on the goal line successfully. They send him after the QB and he gets a sack at two PBUs. They tell him to stack the line, he ends up with six tackles. RVB was active most of the game, but seemed to disappear in terms of results for long stretches. Then he got mad. He got us the ball.

Outside, Craig Roh (mostly) and Brandon Herron (some) had an okay day. Roh continues to use his speed to get into the opposing backfield, but sometimes overruns or over pursues a tad. In my notes I only mention Roh and Herron twice, however, I know that Roh dropped off into coverage relatively well, and Herron made some nice stops in run support.

Overall, it was a good day from the line, but I am concerned about some of the cavernous holes that opened up on the right side of the defensive front. Indiana cleared a couple of pretty big holes for their backs to run through, so I'm sure there's work to be done. Of course, those holes are supposed to be filled by linebackers so...

The Linebackers

via David Guralnick Detroit News.com

Yeah. Where do I go with this one? Let's be honest, anyone not named Stevie Brown has been a little bit (sometimes a lot) of a disappointment. Over the last four weeks the play of the linebackers has broken down into a couple of steady themes. Ezeh and Mouton are not good in pass coverage. Brown is still a little too small for the position. Ezeh doesn't attack the ball carrier and lets the action come to him. Mouton has horrible angles in pursuit and attack. Apply these tenants to any game this season. They'll explain the linebacker play perfectly.

If there's a caveat, it's this: Stevie Brown never should've been a safety. He should've been a linebacker from day one. Since the first game of the season I think it's safe to say the Brown has been Michigan's best linebacker. He's excellent in pass coverage (never in a million, billion years did I ever think I'd say that). He's aggressive at the point of attack and drives into the guy he's tackling. He's wrapping up his tackles and driving MFers to the dirt. He's fast sideline to sideline. Finally, he's brought some stability to a unit that otherwise would probably be an unmitigated disaster without him. I'll give Robinson credit, Brown's emergence as our best linebacker is the single most impressive thing he's done with any one player on this defense. I thought Stevie was excellent on Saturday and shed blockers well and got after the QB and running backs as well as any Michigan linebacker since David Harris' departure.

Jonas Mouton's day was a little more difficult to figure out. It seems he alternates great plays with bad ones from time to time, but has stretches of good play that vary as the game goes on. I'm not an authority on schemes and assignments, so I can only comment on what I see from the plays that are made, but more often than not Mouton is in the right place to make a play. Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't. Mouton's biggest weakness right now seems to be his angles. Rewatching the game, when Mouton is pursuing at an angle or covering in one, he's usually off target. His pass defense also seems shaky. In zone and man, Mouton didn't look good, which is weird to say about a guy who used to be a safety. Both Mouton and Ezeh had an awful time adjusting to simple crossing routes by Indiana's big n' slow receivers and tight ends. On the other hand, Mouton was fairly solid in run support. When he can run straight line at someone, oh baby. Mouton made several good run support tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. Looking at his 11 tackles (5 solo, 6 assists), I was surprised he only had .5 tackles for loss. He also looked great applying pressure on the blitz. Still, his angles on the option looks were atrocious and I tagged him for mistakes on both early Indiana touchdowns. Then on one of Indiana's FG drvies in the redzone he makes up for it by reading the play properly and tagging the QB. It was a mixed bag, but this was one of his better games this season. He's not great, or really even good, right not. He's passable with the potential to be good. I'm not going to go so far as to label his season a flop or a regression, or anything like that. I just don't think he was that good last season, and is still playing like a guy that's learning his position. He showed some good things on Saturday. He's getting away from arm tackles and is made some authoritative stops. But he's got to be better in pass coverage and in attack for this defense to get better.

As for Ezeh, he wasn't good against Indiana. The boxscore has him at ten tackles, but I think that's generous. Very generous. As stated above and in previous Unit by Unit wrap ups, Ezeh has a nasty habit of letting contact come to him. As a result, when he makes a solo tackle the RB, QB, TE or WR drags him for another 3 yards. This is not a good thing. Every time I mentioned Ezeh in my notes it was not for a good reason. On one of the redzone touchdowns and the 85 yard run, I noted that Ezeh allowed himself to get sealed off by the linemen without much resistance. In both cases he was late reacting to the play. The place where he's most effective is rushing the passer, something he really wasn't able to do as much because Robinson was sending Jordan Kovacs on safety blitzes most of the day to cover up for his lack of coverage speed. Kind of a no win for Ezeh. As a result of Kovacs at the line, Ezeh was back in pass coverage where he's only moderately effective. It appeared he did have a nice breakup, but I'm crediting Brown with ripping out the ball out of the receivers hands. Ezeh got sucked up on too many play action passes and left the middle of the field open on a couple of occasions. When he needed to make a tackle, he whiffed on an arm tackle or got dragged along. Really, it was a rough day. How he got to 10 tackles is beyond me, and maybe the scorer just gave an assist to him because they saw him on the top of a bunch of gang tackles. But I thought he was the least fundamentally sound of the group.

The Secondary

Donovan Warren = Awesome.

The Rest = Meh

Warren was terrific in coverage and run support all game. His only mistake was one blown tackle. I think he more than made up for that. With regard to the interception, when first saw the play, I was positive they were going to overturn it. When it was upheld, I thought Indiana got hosed. I've since loosened on that conviction. None of the replays are conclusive, and the Big Ten Network explained in detail that possession between receiver and DB isn't a reviewable issue. Also, this photo from UMGoBlog.com made me change my mind on the issue.

Warren's got the ball and possession. Blecher missed it and is reaching back. As an added bonus, there was a referee in centerfield, less than five yards away who saw the whole thing right in front of his eyes. Maybe this couldv'e gone either way, but the ref's location and these photos make me think Warren caught it, and Blecher was trying to rip it out.

Now, other than Warren, it was a shaky day. Boubacar Cissoko got yanked in favor of J.T. Floyd for some horrible coverage and some terrible decisions in goal line defense. Boo Boo inexplicably ran inside on the option TD, freeing up the sideline for Indiana to waltz in. And this was after getting burnt crispy on a "go" route that didn't feature a single move and one that he had a ten yard cushion on at the snap! I think the poor kid's got the "yips" something bad right now after getting torched by Notre Dame and getting a couple of inexplicable flags in the EMU game. He just don't look right out there and it was a good call by the coaching staff to sit him.

In his stead, J.T. Floyd had a rough start but seemed to get better as the game went on. Everyone was yelling about how the ball was uncatchable on his PI call, but face it folks, J.T. had enough jersey in his hands to be a post-game sorority girl. They were calling the obvious hold, which is a hold regardless of where the ball is, whether they called it PI or not. However, after the PI call, I thought he played pretty well. I don't think he's got the wheels to keep up with elite receivers, but after MSU and Regis Benn, there really aren't a lot of top flight receivers on our schedule. He got bowled over on an early tackle, but after that point he just stoned people. The best tackle of the year, so far, was his pile driving of an Indiana receiver short of the first down marker on a third down in the redzone. Floyd should be adequate if Boo Boo continues to struggle and I thought he had a decent game after some early nerves.

At safety, it's clear we need Michael Williams back. Jordan Kovacs was at the line of scrimmage almost the whole day, more to cover up for his lack of speed in coverage than for any other reason. That said, he acquitted himself well in the run game, getting behind the line and making some stops. The one thing he lacks is speed. He's just not that fast and all the Barwis in the world ain't going to change that. He's been great as a walk-on. Honestly, he's been better than our safeties last year. But Michigan's going to have to have speed in the secondary to continue to win and Kovacs doesn't have it.

Frankly, I'm still in shock that Darius Willis outran the entire Michigan secondary for that TD. Yikes. Hopefully it's a bit of a wake up call for the boys in the backfield.

At the other safety position, I thought Troy Woolfolk played fine. He bit on one or two play actions, but otherwise was stout in the passing game. There's not much else I can add to that as he was playing deep the majority of the game to guard against the big play. Something I suspect we'll see from him again this week against Michigan State.

The secondary gave up a lot of yards, but most of them came on underneath routes that the Linebackers have to be better at covering. For the most part, the deep coverage was there and they group forced a number of throw aways by Chappell. It wasn't a great performance by any stretch, but it was enough considering Kovacs was in and Boo Boo seems to be having some problems. Still, the secondary is going to have to play considerably better against MSU for Michigan to have a chance.

The Special Teams

via John T. Greilick Detroit News.com

Surprisingly, the best unit on the field for Michigan was it's kick off return team. Darryl Stonum has been a revelation returning kick-offs and came close to breaking two or three touchdown runs. No matter where he got the ball, he was getting to the 30 or better. Compare that to any point last year. His worst return got to the 26. Two returns went past the 40, six total went to the 30 or better. I mean, damn, son. Give credit where credit is due to the return team. They were excellent.

Punt returns continue to be consistently non-turnoverish. I'll take fair catches any day on bad punts. I'm sure if Mathews thinks he's got something he'll run it back, but right now holding onto the ball and not screwing up are enough for me. It should also be noted that the block team almost got one against Indiana. Michigan's going to get to a punt soon. Mark it.

Speaking of punts, Zoltan Mesko was awesome (per usual). A 48.1 average, two inside the 20 and a 59 yarder? So awesome. His punts were so awesome that only one of seven allowed a return. During the second half his punts pinned IU deep in their own territory and helped shift the field of play in Michigan's favor. All Hail the Space Emperor.

Our coverage teams were fairly good, though Michigan did require a shoestring tackle by Bryan Wright to save a TD on a kickoff. That excluded, everyone was disciplined and played well. Overall a great special teams weekend.

Michigan: by the numbers and key contributors.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:00:19 -0000

More photos » by TONY DING - AP

Tate Forcier has excelled as a true freshman.

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The Michigan Wolverines, like the Hoosiers, are 3-0, thanks to home blowouts against two MAC schools, including common opponent Western Michigan, and a close home win against Notre Dame, by far the highest quality opponent either team has played this season. Yesterday, I linked to IU's NCAA "executive summary page, and here is Michigan's. Thanks in part to an absurdly run-dominated offense against Eastern Michigan last week, Michigan is sporting a Navy-like average of 276 yards per game. Most impressively, Michigan's leading rusher, Carlos Brown, averages only 79 yards per game. Already, four Wolverines have exceeded the 100 yard mark for the season, including quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. Michigan ranks only 97th in production from the passing game at 168 yards per game, but that is a function of the lopsided nature of two of Michigan's first three games. In Michigan's only competitive game, the 38-34 win over Notre Dame, Forcier was 23-33 passing for 240 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Forcier's quarterback rating is #32 in Division I-A. Michigan has posted top 30 numbers in total offense and scoring offense. On defense, the Wolverines have allowed 358 yards per game, but only 19 points per game. Against Western Michigan, nearly all of WMU's positive yardage came after the Wolverines had jumped out to a big lead. On the other hand, Eastern Michigan moved the ball reasonably well against Michigan, and the Notre Dame game was a shootout. Michigan protects the quarterback reasonably well, probably in no small part because Forcier and Robinson both run well, so IU's pass rush game will be strength against strength.

Who are the key individuals?

Tate Forcier, QB. Forcier became a household name in week 2 of the season with his impressive play (described above) in Michigan's upset of Notre Dame. He has played very well as a passer (again, see above) and running the ball (30/112 and a touchdown).

Denard Robinson, QB. Robinson is only 2-8 passing, but has run for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 18 carries.

Carlos Brown, RB. Michigan has spread the ball around, but Brown is Michigan's leading rusher with 238 yards and is averaging 8.8 yards per carry.

Brandon Minor, RB. Minor has been bothers by injuries, but ran for 106 yards and a touchdown against Notre Dame on only 16 carries.

Darryl Stonum returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Notre Dame.

Michigan's receiving yards are even more widely dispersed than its rushing yards. Michigan has 7 receivers who have caught 5 or more passes but no receiver has caught more than 7. Junior Hemingway leads the Wolverines with 110 receiving yards and over 18 yards per catch, plus two touchdowns. Kevin Koger also has caught two touchdown passes.

None of Michigan's defenders stand out statistically yet. Linebackers Obi Ezeh and Stevie Brown are Michigan's leading tacklers, and Brown has 3.5 tackles for loss. Michigan has sacked the opposing quarterback only three times this year, and Ben Chappell has been sacked only once, so the IU offensive line will have a chance to show that its improved protection is for real.

I'm taking a bit of heat in the comments for my realistic/pessimistic take on the game in the Mgopodcast. Don't let that fool you. I am surprisingly optimistic about this game, but that is based on hunch, not on any objective evidence. All of the objective evidence points toward a Michigan win, hence my 40-21 prediction on the podcast. Still, this is the first time since 1967 that IU has been undefeated when playing Michigan. In 1967, IU won 27-20 (IU's most recent win in Ann Arbor) and ultimately won the Big Ten and played in the Rose Bowl. That would be a wildly optimistic prediction for this IU team. On the other hand, in 1967, IU was 9 years removed from its last winning season and hadn't won more than 3 games in a season in 8 years. That's what's fun about being undefeated. It's easy to hope for the best.

Sunshine, Open Rushing Lanes and Victory, Michigan Football Tops Eastern Michigan 45-17

Maize n Brew Dave — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 16:34:46 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

3 months ago: Michigan running back Carlos Brown (23) breaks away from Eastern Michigan defensive back Ryan Downard (10) and defensive end Devon Davis (94) for a 90-yard touchdown during the second quarter of an NCAA football game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

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There aren't a lot of things on this earth that make a late September afternoon spent in Michigan Stadium more enjoyable than a victory. Two things, however, do greatly enhance that gameday experience. The first is the Sun. The second is Carlos Brown. On a gorgeous, sunny Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines led by 187 yards from the aforementioned Brown, throttled the Eastern Michigan Eagles in route to a 45-17 win. The win over the Eagles, sent Michigan to 3-0 on the young season as they prepare to start conference play against Indiana this Saturday.

Over the past three games we've seen a lot of different things from this 2009 squad. Mostly, we've seen them dominate their opponents in the air, assisted by the running game. On Saturday, Rich Rodriguez' offense displayed its potency in the running game. Michigan amassed 380 yards on the ground, a number that would've exceeded 400 rushing yards had Tate Forcier not been sacked on two (three really) occasions. You're going to have to go back to 2006, when Michigan's rushing game was last at full potency, to see numbers like that.

Most impressively, Michigan ground Eastern into the dirt using five different tailbacks. Carlos Brown only got 13 carries but put up 187 yards (14.4 YPC) and two touchdowns. Michael Shaw only saw the ball 9 times and piled up 57 yards (5.9 YPC) and a touchdown. Michael Cox ran twice for 31 yards (15.5 YPC). Shifty freshman Vincent Smith got two carries for ten yards (5.0 YPC). Brandon Minor carried the ball three times for 21 yards (7.0 YPC) before sitting the remainder of the game to rest a battered body. So, the running backs accounted for Three Touchdowns and 302 yards. Not so bad. But that's only part of the story.

(the rest of the story after the jump....)

The quarterbacks and slot ninjas also got in on the ground game. Denard Robinson carried the ball three times. He had 60 yards and two touchdowns. Read that again. If you're wondering why Rodriguez keeps bringing up Robinson at his press conferences, you now know why. With just 18 carries, Robinson has 155 yards, an 8.8 YPC, and leads the team with 3 TDs. Folks, that's in maybe, maybe, 40 plays. It's fair to say that he's putting these numbers up against that are a combined 1-5 (Eastern and Western), but he's still learning the offense and getting used to being on campus. It's hard not to be excited about his future, even if I am more comfortable with Tate Forcier under center. Robinson's electric on the ground.

Then there's Martavious Odoms. The diminutive slot receiver took the reverse from Forcier for a walk in touchdown after some outstanding blocking from Darryl Stonum. He basically walked into the endzone the play was so well executed.

But, even with all of the above to consider, it all comes back to Carlos Brown. Brown dominated the Eastern Michigan game. A ninety yard touchdown blast, shaking off an arm tackle that would've brought him down a year ago. He was shifty and powerful all at once. For the first time in as long as I can remember Brown in a Michigan uniform, Brown hit his cutbacks authoritatively and without hesitation. He ran with a confidence and energy that has been missing from his game in his previous incarnations. Whether it was his workman like crushing of Illinois in 2007, his workmanlike performance against Northwestern last year, Carlos had never shown us the "angry" side of his rushing ability. Once in 2007 against Minnesota, Brown got loose for an 85 yard touchdown scamper. But even then it appeared to be more of an "OMG I can't believe I'm free" type run.

Saturday was the complete package. There was no tentativeness and no concern in his running. Where Brown would usually run crouched over, protecting the football at all costs, he instead ran low and fast. Brown seemed to know the ball wouldn't come loose, almost as if he'd glued the damn thing to his arm. And he played like it. Brown punished tacklers. He made the cut when he was supposed to rather than when he felt the slightest pressure. He followed his blockers, all while running at speed with quick short steps, then bursting into the second and third levels with the explosiveness we've all longed to see from him. With the aide of a crystal clear September afternoon and a warming sun, everyone saw with their own eyes why Lloyd Carr fought so hard to keep Brown in Ann Arbor and why Rodriguez has embraced him as a starting tailback.

Certainly there were things to be concerned about on Saturday. David Molk's injury. Dropped balls. Boubacar Cissoko getting pass interference penalties seemingly on reputation, despite excellent coverage for most of the day. then there was Michigan's first half defense, which seemed more concerned with over pursuit and stat padding than playing their positions. And Robinson's interceptions, lord were those bad. Anyone concerned about Robinson replacing Tate under center permanently need not look any further than the two horrid ducks he threw to Eastern's safety and cornerback. He's not there yet.

But today, we'll focus on the positives. In three games Michigan has equaled its win total from 2008. All the drama of the off season seems to be a distant memory despite the fact we're only a month removed from it. Michigan has fielded a good team for 2009. One that has shown it can play from behind, in a tight game, or well in the lead. While it has dynamic players and personalities, it acts and talks as a unit.

On a sunny day in Ann Arbor that was plain for everyone to see.

Unit by Unit: Breaking Down Michigan Football's Defense Following Its Win Over Notre Dame

Maize n Brew Dave — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:23:18 -0000

We're running a little behind, so it's time to get into the Michigan Notre Dame Unit by Unit breakdown. We'll take a hard look at the players and the coaches for each particular unit on the team, and bring them in for a pat on the back or a wag of the finger. After we've looked at each position, we'll give you a final wrap on the team's play on Offense and Defense (Special Teams too!). If you're looking for more detail, game bullets are here, the wrap up is here, the boxscore is here, and the general AP recap is here. There are the links, so now let's take a good hard look at....

The Defense

It's hard to put on a smilely face when your defense surrenders 34 points and 490 total yards, so we're not going to. The defense was not good. If you felt like saying awful, I wouldn't blame you. In terms of being fair, the Wolverines made some critical stops when they needed to. Over all, however, Weis and company had Michigan's number most of the day.

A picture is worth 2,200 words. via multimedia.detnews.com

The Defensive Line

With Notre dame in max protect most of the game, it wasn't going to be easy for Michigan to get pressure on Clausen. And they didn't. For the majority of the game Clausen was able to sit in the pocket and pick Michigan's secondary apart without anyone near him. Brandon Graham spent his entire day trying to split double teams or getting horse collared as he went around the left and right tackles. Even so, he was able to get some pressure and the occasional knock down of Clausen. Plus, he was stout in against the run, notching two TFLs. The day for the rest of the line was fairly muted. Craig Roh spent most of his day bull rushing his way out of position on sweeps and counters. Ryan Van Bergen and Brandon Herron were all but invisible. Mike Martin, like Graham, had two defenders in his way the entire game and got absolutely no pressure on Clausen. Ronaldo Sagesse played a little bit and faired decently. Other than that, nothing.

It's pretty clear from here out that teams will basically double the hell out of Graham and Martin and force Herron, Van Bergen and Roh to beat them. All three are undersized and got absolutely no pressure on Saturday. Maybe this is an aberration based on the quality of ND's offensive line, but I don't think so at this point. Because Michigan couldn't get any pressure on Clausen, or effectively stop the run, it forced the Wolverines to begin bringing the house on blitzes which resulted in some notable pressure (re: last ND offensive play) but also some huge wholes in the secondary. If Sagesse can start playing regularly, then yeah, that helps. But realistically, Herron, Van Bergen and Roh have to start getting pressure for this defense to be effective going forward. They weren't against Notre Dame, and the results are painfully obvious.

This was not a good performance.

(more after the jump.....)

The Linebackers

via mitheral.ca

Yeah. yeah. Kittens are Brian's thing. But you try finding a better metaphor for this group. Good lord were they bad. If Obi Ezeh wasn't getting caught out of position, Jonas Mouton was offering up chin music. Let's put it this way. Stevie Brown was our best linebacker. BY FAR. This guy is a converted safety who's time at Michigan is better known for his blunders than fine play. He was your best player. To his credit, this was not simply an issue of best by default. Brown was pretty damn good all things considered. He shot into the backfield and collected to TFLs. He forces a critical fumble. He didn't miss a tackle, and was excellent in space. Honestly, I'm starting to believe he's a legit linebacker. A horrid game against Eastern/State may dissuade me of this. But right now he's head and shoulders above Mouton and Ezeh.

Speaking of which. Lord. Bad gap play. Inability to shed blockers. Basically looking lost for most of the game. Roughing the passer. Etc... The majority of Notre Dame's 154 yards on the ground were directly attributable to poor linebacker play. Personally, I don't know what to make of it. All I know is that Michigan's linebackers were not the aggressors on most of their tackles, were flat footed at the point of contact, and only looked effective when they were told "Danny, I want that ball. Get me that ball." and turned loose on the blitz. And even then it was a little spotty. Something's gotta give soon. Notre Dame is not a rush first offense. If we play this way against pass based teams, God help us against power rushing teams like Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Ohio State. But Dave, aren't some of those teams "spread" teams? Yeah, but they're all rush first teams with equal or better offensive lines (maybe not PSU, but they're huge so that evens out). If the linebackers can't start filling the proper gap and attacking the ball carrier rather than waiting for contact to comet to them, we're going to be in trouble.

The Secondary

via multimedia.detnews.com

I'm kind of at a loss to describe this. Boubocar Cissoko was awful. Just dreadful. Donovan Warren was decent, but I'm not anointing him Marlin Jackson II and I'm certainly not saying his performance warrants a high draft pick and loads of money. I thought he got away with a lot of defensive holding on the day. The second down pass on Notre Dame's final drive? Yeah. He's holding Tate's right arm the entire way. That said, for all but four plays (one of which was a TD that he was torched on) Warren ran with Notre Dame's receivers and basically planted himself in their helmets on each passing route. He's good, but play that game away from Ann Arbor and Warren's getting flagged fairly often.

Back to Boo Boo. He was alone the entire day against a guy that was faster, taller, older, and better than him all day. The results were not good. No safety help. No nothing. So you can write it up to growing pains. No. You can't. Boo Boo spent his entire day turning before he needed to. Opening his hips the wrong way on the cuts. Breaking from his back pedal way way way too soon. His tackling was mediocre at best.

Here's the thing. Boo Boo is a true sophomore. He'll get better or he'll get passed on the depth chart by Floyd or, hopefully, J.T. Turner. But he was going up against the best set of receivers he's going to see this year in his second game of the season after playing only a handful of games a year prior. I'm going write this up as a bad game for a kid with what I hope is a promising future. But he's going to need a lot of coaching after this game. Maybe he's gotten by on talent all this time and it's masked some deficiencies. It's possible. But right now he needs a lot of time in the film room and some heavy duty coaching.

Moving away from the corners and into the deep secondary, I have to admit I was very pleasantly surprised with the play of Michigan's safeties. Troy Woolfolk, Michael Williams, and later Jordan Kovacs played excellent. A reason for this may have been that Michigan was in deep cover for most of the game, but I thought they were pretty good. The two led the team with 8 tackles a piece, and had Williams not gone down with cramping, he probably would've been in the 10 tackle range.

If your question is "how can you be happy with 330+ yards in the air and the safeties?" the answer's simple. Michigan made Notre Dame earn the yards. Unlike last season, Notre Dame wasn't able to have one play drives. Sure, they gave up yards in chunks, but they didn't give up the bomb. There wasn't a "big play" per se. There were a lot of medium plays, but nothing crippling. The safeties were stout in the run game, especially when you consider just how bad the linebackers were, so they get some credit.

Overall, a decent day out of the safeties and an "Arg!" to "OMG Get me a gun!" day for the corners.

Special Teams

Rain = Pour. Special Teams were a mess too. Waaaaay too many long run backs on kickoff coverage. Zoltan Mesko was off all day as well, shanking a punt or two. A missed field goal from Jason oles....whatever. Defensive special teams were abysmal.

On the other side, the offensive special teams were generally okay (FGs not included). Darryl Stonum's run back was awesome and Michigan came close to breaking one or two other big runs. While Michigan's return game probably won them the game, their coverage almost lost it on a couple of occasions. There's plenty of work to be done.

When Innocence Becomes Confidence: Michigan Football Tops Notre Dame in Waning Seconds of an Epic Game

Maize n Brew Dave — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:54:43 -0000

Photo via David Guralnick The Detroit News.com

It's hard to be a fan and a writer after a game like Saturday's Michigan Notre Dame clash. As a fan there are so many things running through your head that start with "wooooooo!" that it's hard to sort through the chaff to find something meaningful to express other than "wooooo!" As a writer there are just too many story lines to play with. You get half way through one piece and find you're writing about another just as compelling hero, play, or moment in time. Basically your brain just overloads and you slump into a happy, sedate, state of euphoria that lasts three to four days.

It's Tuesday and I still haven't come down from Michigan's 38-34 victory over Notre Dame. I've watched the game a half a dozen times. Thoughts of Forcier splitting the linebackers, Minor gashing Notre Dame's line, Stonum breaking free, and Warren blanketing Tate and Floyd are still bouncing around my skull. Likewise, visions of Clausen picking up 25 yard clumps of turf seemingly at will, our Defensive line being roto-tilled into the turf, Cissoko being torched Trent-style, and nearly 500 total yards by the Irish are still ricocheting off my consciousness as well.

Where do you start? Whom do you start with? You can talk about Tate Forcier's performance all week with running out of material. Then there's Brandon Minor and his incredible, punishing ground game. The Defense's final stand. Weis' play calling at the end of the game.

What it comes down to is that this win was a team win. For every punch landed by Notre Dame, Michigan counter with one more. For every player that left with injury, another stepped in and stepped up. Junior Hemingway missed this game with an injury so Darryl Stonum took his place. Out went David Moosman to injury, in came Perry Dorrestein. Prior to this game would you ever have expected that two of the most crucial catches of the season would be made inside of two minutes of the Fourth Quarter by LaTerryal Savoy? Did anyone have bets that Craig Roh would be this good or play this much? That cornerback Troy Woolfolk would anchor our defense, and anchor it well, at safety? Finally, that Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor would be just as valuable as pass blockers as they were as runners?

There are so many questions that you run out of space to proffer answers. But unlike last year, they are happy questions. Rhetorical ones, that don't require you to slump forward, furrow your brow and sigh as you answer the question. For once, Michigan fans can simply enjoy the ride. We're playing with house money, lots of it, and it feels good. No one expected a game like Saturday's out of this young team. And now we can sit back and enjoy it.

(more after the jump....)

Two games ago this team was an unknown. A fresh face and clean slate. For the faithful, we couldn't help but be cynical. Ever since 2002, we've been trained to expect that if things look too good to be true, then they were. But the same cannot be said for the 2009 Michigan Football Team. Maybe they're too innocent to realize the pressure on them. Most of them are too young to know some of the let downs we've experienced. Either way, they're playing like they expected to be this good.

If you ask them, to a man, they'll tell you they knew it. That Michigan would surprise people with how good they are. But we heard this last year. And the year before. Every football player will tell you at the start of the season that they'll "shock the world." No way. Coming off a three and nine season you know there's work to be done, and that it takes more than an off season to cure last season's ills.

But two games in, this is a good team. A confident team. They're playing as a cohesive unit and playing like kids that care about one another. There are always two separate people there to help someone up. The two quarterbacks, Forcier and Robinson, are the first to greet one another after a big play. The defense, which spent most of the day getting burnt crispy, never gave up and never showed the slightest waver even when things and penalties didn't go their way.

There's a difference between thinking you can be good and knowing you are. There's a difference between the two when you play football, as well. And you can see it in this team. They know they can be good and that confidence has begun the transition to knowing they are good.

There will be speed bumps along the way. There may well be a loss we don't expect. But, today, this is no longer an innocent, fresh faced team. It is a confident team with everything to play for and everyone who doubted them still to prove wrong.

Bullets of Interest:

Two games into Rich Rodriguez' second season at Michigan, two game removed from a 3-9 season, the Wolverines are 2-0 and ranked in the top 25 again. Pretty cool if you ask me.
I've never been in the building for a game like that. It was the best football game I've ever seen live. The 1997 win over Ohio State ranks up there with this game, not the other way around. This has nothing to do with context. This has only to do with the game itself. I'd be hard pressed to name a better one.
The old boxers' analogy fit perfectly on Saturday. Two fighters went toe to toe. Haymaker after haymaker. In the end Michigan landed one more punch than Notre Dame.
Carlos Brown might not have been particularly effective out of the backfield as a runner on Saturday, he was an excellent receiving option and pass blocker for Forcier. It's nice to see Carlos starting to gain some confidence as well as consistently contribute.
LaTerryal Savoy, your table is waiting. Your two catches got us there.
Perry Dorrestein gets a special mention. He was a walk on. A tackle. A bench warmer. And now he's a fifth year senior. When David Moosman went down, Dorrestein stepped in and stepped up, elevating his play beyond what I'd ever seen out of him previously. For a guy who'd only played tackle, and hadn't really seen the field all that much, he played great.
Jimmy Clausen was really, really good. His only mistake was rushing his final third down throw. Had that been Floyd out there, Michigan's goose was probably cooked. But he rushed the throw and Evans simply wasn't on the same page. Other than that, Clausen is the real deal people.
One thing that might not have gotten press outside of Ann Arbor was that Clausen waited until after the Michigan celebration, on field, to shake Forcier's hand and congratulate him. We've had a lot of fun at Clausen's expense, but he's is a good kid. That was 120% of your daily classiness allotment, when no one would've blamed him or even thought twice about him running down the tunnel when the game was over. Mr. Clausen, my hat is off to you. You proved yourself on the the field and off it on Saturday.
The officiating was terrible. That's all I'll say about that.
Someone please douse Boo Boo with flame retardant chemicals. He's still smoldering in the bushes over there.
I'll wait to see the UFR, but I thought Stevie Brown had an excellent game. The move to Linebacker seems to have rejuvenated him. Finally called upon to use his athletic ability in the right context, Brown is playing great. He's standing up the running backs, shedding blockers, causing fumbles, and has been excellent in pass coverage.
Special hat tip to Jordan Kovacs who stepped in for Mike Williams and played exceptionally at safety. BTW, his dad, Louis, was a defensive back on the U-M football team in the early 1980s (lettered in 1982). I bet Dad's pretty proud today.

One For The Ages, Hail To The Victors!

SCM — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 20:40:56 -0000

More photos » by Bill Fundaro - AP

3 months ago: Michigan slot receiver Martavious Odoms (9) and Notre Dame cornerback Raeshon McNeil (8) watch Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier (5) score a touchdown in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in Ann Arbor. Michigan upset No. 18 Notre Dame 38-34. (AP Photo/Bill Fundaro)

Browse more photos »

Ok, so a great number of months ago I wrote a post lamenting the fact that we had signed a long term deal to play Notre Dame. I was short-sighted and wrong. Yesterday was a perfect example of just why we play Notre Dame and why this is one of the great rivalries in the sport. Once again on the national stage (for all the right reasons this time) on a perfect day for football with an absolutely tremendous atmosphere, and the game that played out like that? Wooooo (!!!!) indeed.

Onto the collection of thoughts:

General what-have-you:

- !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

- That was far and away the best Notre Dame team I have seen in a long long time, beyond a shadow of a doubt. I would not hesitate one bit to say that will be the best offense we see this season.

- Notre Dame played a darn solid football game, in fact they played extremely well and got beat. They came back from down 11 not once but twice.

- The crowd was awesome, the 110,278 were thunderous throughout and it sure seemed like there were fewer ND fans there than in prior years, which was a pleasant surprise. Student section was awesome. All the questions about whether or not the structures would make a difference have been answered with a resounding yes.

- Speaking of the structures, the shadow from the Western building covers the entire field by the time the second half rolls around, a few more lights might be called for on these 3:30 starts.

- I know they specifically built those seats in the student section for the band, but they need to move them, you simply cannot hear them if you're anywhere South of the 50 yardline.

- Clausen was more accurate, but he still really rushes throws when he is pressured in any way (which was infrequent at best yesterday) and the majority of the passing game is predicated on chucking it deep, this strategy works entirely because of Tate and Floyd, more on that later.

- The ND kick return guy touched the ball on our "squibb" kick, hence why the clock ran, if I can see it 40 rows up it shouldn't be that hard for people watching in HD to determine it too.

- WOO coaching adjustments, WOO clock managment, WOO play calling, WOOO!

- I'm going to preface this one; I was/am a big Lloyd Carr fan. But you CANNOT tell me that any time over the past 15 years we would've gone for it on 4th and 3 like we did on Forcier's lightning bolt TD. We punt that ball 100 times out of 100 with the old regime.

Offense

- Tate Forcier, I mean what can you say? An epic performance. The play before the winning TD was one of the greatest individual efforts I have ever seen, for him to avoid the sack and get the ball to Savoy in the corner of the endzone was nothing short of ridiculous. The ensuing drop was soul-crushing for approximately 5 seconds, and yes it was tipped.

- Savoy's catches got us into that position in the first place, don't forget that.

- So much for that shutout of Nevada eh? You cannot put into words how much better this offense is, you just can't.

- Brandon Minor averaged 10 YPC on his first 9 touches of the day and ended up with 106 yards on 16 touches and 1 TD. It is an appreciable difference when he is in there in terms of how he hits the hole and accelerates, welcome back sir.

- Did not see Shaw even once yesterday, which surprised me. Carlos looked great on a few screens, although he made a few catches a little more dramatic than they probably needed to be.

- Lost Moosman late in the game, which last year would've been DOOM, and this year we put in Dorrestein and didn't miss a beat... awesome. I thought the offensive line did a GREAT job against a much faster opponent this week.

- 1st and goal on the 1 and no points... ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! That was one of my few criticisms of the play-calling yesterday. I'd rather us stay in the shotgun and keep the D spread out, let Minor see the blocking and pick his spot rather than just barreling into the line from the I-form and let the D put everyone in the box.

- Kevin Koger, Greg Mathews, LaTerryal Savoy, and Darryl Stonum all stepped up big-time. Tate's one poor throw of the day was to Koger when there wasn't a defender within 20 yards of him on our second to last drive... I just can't say enough about how well the offense has done getting our receivers into space thus far.

- Absolutely nothing but praise for the playcalling and clock management on that final drive, awesome job Coach, awesome job.

More after the jump...

Defense

- Wellllllllllllllllll we held on didn't we? Yeegads.

- Hardly any pressure on Clausen at all, this was due to a combination of very quick drops/throws, max protect, relatively little blitzing, a solid ND O-line, and yes, the occasional BLATANT hold on whomever was assigned to block Graham and Roh.

- Not one deep ball given up, yes ND moved through the air very well, but considering how much of an island we put Warren and Cissoko on out there, to not give up the one play drive was really encouraging.

- Warren's coverage of Tate on ND's final possession was PERFECT, Warren ran the route for him and had position the whole time, nevermind Tate hugging him to keep him from picking it off. I've seen loads of whining about this (shock!) from ND fans who can promptly stick it where the sun don't shine for all I care.

- Halftime adjustments! The third quarter performance on D was huge. The perfect screens from the first half were suddenly being snuffed for no gain. We gave up something like 308 yards in the first half and then somewhere around 35 in the 3rd quarter? Phew.

- Would've never guessed we would've let them gash us on the ground like they did... it was hard to tell if we were caught out of position or if there were some poor pursuit angles taken by the safeties coming up in run support, but there were some enormous holes out there. Overall the ND O-line turned in a fantastic performance when they weren't holding the bejeezus out of our defenders.

- No Vlad Emelien... Beauford brought this up when we talked after the game, the guy who came on when Williams was hurt (whom I can't even find on the roster) played well, but I was under the impression Vlad was contending for a starting spot, anything going on with him? EDIT: The safety who came in was Jordan Kovacs who is #22 on the official roster but I believe was sporting #32 yesterday, and again, nice job sir.

- Floyd is the real deal.

Special teams

- WOOOOOO SHADES OF STEVE BREASTON WOOOOO! What a bolt from above that was.

- Zoltan needs to just settle down, he's misfiring more often than he's hitting moon shots.

- Tate's pooch punt was a thing of beauty and a great call

- Could've done without the missed chipshot FG, but Olesnavage again looked solid on the one at the end of the first half.

- Kick coverage looked less solid this week, the big one we let go right up the gut was particularly frustrating.

The takeaway

- Enormous win for this team and the program, just enormous.

GO BLUE!!!

Positional Matchup Ratings to Determine Outcome of Saturday's Michigan Notre Dame Game

Beauford — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:24:02 -0000

via i2.cdn.turner.com

This weekend, Notre Dame plays Michigan. You may have heard. Yesterday, I gave you a brief history of the rivalry, which I'm sure has been committed to memory by now. Today, I give you positional matchups in an attempt to see where this game is going to be won or lost. Let us begin.

Quarterback

Notre Dame

Notre Dame returns Jimmah Clausen fresh off completing 105% of his passes (the extra 5% is for love, which Jimmah pours into every pass) for a bazillion TD's against various WAC opponents. In all seriousness, the dude finally looked like the QB that he was expected to be, albeit against inferior competition. The third year in any program will do that to a guy. He's got a solid arm, but a little bit of a gunslinger attitude, throwing 17 INTS compared to 25 TD's. Like him or not, he's poised to have a big year, and if he can not be such an INT machine, could (gulp...going to do something I've never done before...agree with Lou Holtz) toss his hat in the ring for that ceremony in NYC.

Michigan

Michigan will start Forcier, and all indications point to him getting the vast majority of snaps with Denard-flashes mixed in accordingly. I look for Forcier to have a bigger role and a more traditional "starter" presence in this game due to what looks to be superior competition. Less time to mess around. I liked Tate's ability to keep plays alive, although I think he pulled it in to run a bit too soon on a few plays. If he continues to not turn the ball over and play smart, I think he'll do fine. And Denard is always a threat, as evidenced by the broken play magic that I've literally watched on loop 15 times in a row. Still, they are both Freshmen, and therefore not Junior Year former all world recruits.

Advantage: Notre Dame

More after the jump.

Running Back

Notre Dame

Ok, so Notre Dame's got Armando Allen who went for 76 yards against Nevada and didn't need to do much more due to Jimmah's air attack that, again, featured 105% accuracy. Last season he averaged 4.33 YPC, and the Irish running attack was ranked 44th in the country. This isn't a run-heavy team, but any coach will tell you that establishing a running game is paramount for the passing game. If going deep off play action is what ND wants to do, it's going to take a rolling running game to make it work. Allen isn't going to win this game on his own.

Michigan

Much like the QB situation, Michigan finds themselves in a "split role" situation with Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor. It looks like Minor is going to play after being listed as probable. The Notre Dame D line, to be detailed later, aren't exactly man-beasts up front and could be susceptible to the stylings of MINOR RAGE. With Brown and Shaw and Leetle Vincent Smith there to bounce it to the outside and provide that spark, the advantage...

Advantage Michigan

woo.

Wideouts

via nbcsportsmedia2.msnbc.com

Notre Dame

Michael Floyd averaged 47.7 yards per reception last game against Nevada. Golden Tate hauled in 3 catches for 59 yards. These are some fantastic numbers, but a quick look at the record shows that Nevada also clocked in last year with the 110th ranked pass defense in the country. So impressive as last game's numbers are, and they are impressive, I'm not sure they hold up against a team with a real-life pass defense. That being said, Floyd and Tate are both legitimate WR's who are good on the deep ball and have solid hands. They will present a problem.

Michigan

Hemingway is listed as doubtful (which provides a lot of literary jokes that I won't make. Yay liberal arts). He is Michigan's primary deep threat, based on last game, and will probably be replaced by Darryl Stonum, who has underwhelmed in the Spring. That ain't good. However, the emergence of Kelvin "last seen missing layups" Grady and the presence of Odoms and Matthews makes the loss manageable. If Stonum can run the routes, I expect he'll be targeted. What's been rumored shaky has been his hands, so, well, god help us. This offense relies more on the leetle slot dudes anyways, so the loss of Hemingway doesn't necessarily mean death. But it ain't good.

Advantage Notre Dame

Tight Ends

Notre Dame

Kyle Rudolph caught 4 balls for 29 yards last game. Weis does utilize the Tight End in the receiving game, so Rudolph will have to be accounted for. According to the House Rock Built, he's definitely more a receiving TE than a blocker. He'll be one of those guys Clausen hits on a 3rd and short that causes me to throw things.

Michigan

Kevin Koger's Catch (via davidrizik)

I think Koger is more athletic, and like much of Rodriguez's offense, he seems designed to run seam routes and look for big plays. That waggle last game was a thing of beauty. Rudolph seems more like a grind the chains type, while Koger seems more the big play type. Both important, both pretty good...

Advantage Push

Offensive Line

Notre Dame

As has been detailed here before, Notre Dame returns 4 starters on an offensive line that features more 5-stars than a meeting of the joint chiefs. Over the past 2 games - including last year's bowl game, obvs - they've given Clausen enough time to sling 9 TD's. With Clausen taking the expected leap into Junior year awareness, and a line that might actually provide him some protection, the passing game of ND could be pretty fierce. That said, Weis has really tinkered with the left side of the line, and that's exactly where Brandon Graham lives. Given that Rudolph isn't much of a blocking TE, Michigan could get pressure with 4 rushing.

Michigan

Well, the line looked pretty good against Western. Molk had some dumb holding calls, but in all, a pretty even day. I'm not terribly concerned with Notre Dame's defensive line, especially given that Nevada racked up 118 yards of rushing, and had their starter average 6.3 yards per carry. Given that Nevada was hovering around the top of the NCAA last year in rushing, this can be explained away, but Michigan's offensive line is going to be bigger and meaner than the Nevada line that had Notre Dame on skates for a good portion of the game.

Advantage Michigan but not by much

via 4.bp.blogspot.com

Defensive Line

Notre Dame

Well, I kind of blew it up there in the O-line section, but yeah, they didn't look good against Nevada. I think they're going to have their hands full with the Michigan offensive line, especially if Michigan decides to employ MINOR RAGE runs up the gut.

Michigan

The defensive line is probably the strong suit of this Michigan defense, featuring already ferocious Brandon Graham, developingly ferocious Mike Martin (GET IN THE CAR), and an impressively ferocious for being a true freshman and such Craig Roh. If Michigan can get their pass rush out of the front 4, they will do well. If they need to bring in a LB or Safety, they will be gambling.

Advantage Michigan

Linebackers

Notre Dame

Toryan, Scott and Brian Smith (not related AFAIK) make up the corp of this experienced unit. These two combined for 8 tackles, four of which were losses. Freshman all-everything recruit Manti Te'o will play as well, and while he had a "welcome to NCAA" type game against Nevada, he is still a presence to be dealt with. As a corp they are fast and experienced, and will definitely provide more of a challenge than WMU's. Missed blocks against this unit will equal immediate tackles; probably not "gets hit but drags the dude for 3 more yards." The UM linemen are going to HAVE to put a body on these guys.

Michigan

Ok, so Stevie Brown was significantly improved at his new linebacker position, just like we all knew he would be. Anybody who watched him wreck shit at the line of scrimmage last year then screw up coverage knew this. Next to him is Obi Ezeh, who looked pretty good against Western, but was found to be hesitant on a few plays:

Roh(+1), in a two-point stance as Michigan moves to an under look, attacks the RT. RT doesn't look like he's attempting to block Roh, as the play is supposed to go up the middle. This is a mistake: Roh gets underneath the guy and blasts him back into the ballcarrier as he passes. An unblocked Ezeh—no Broncos got off their doubles—cleans up. Michigan was in a pure eight-man front here, BTW, with a blitz off the edge from Williams absorbing a pulling TE. Would like Ezeh to be a little more proactive here and shut this down closer to the LOS.

I have no way of telling whether the UFR is the end-all-be-all or whether Ezeh had other responsibilities, but this was a recurring theme.

Advantage Notre Dame but not by much

Secondary

Notre Dame

Senior Kyle McCarthy and Sophomore Robert Blanton both got picks last week as they shut down Nevada's passing offense. Nevada, however, is a known running team, and while the DB's got a bit of work in, they weren't exactly facing Tom Brady's Patriots here. I expect the unit to be improved, if only because they were starting a slow white boxer at Safety prior to this year. The jury, however, is still out on this unit.

Michigan

Michigan meanwhile returns Donovon Warren, who was very impressive in his Junior year debut against Western, and Boubacar Cissoko who looked good at times, and competent at others. Boubacar was held out of the second half against Western due to a tweak, and what we saw behind him didn't looke good. I foresee Justin Turner getting some reps this game if Cissoko can't go or re-tweaks something. As long as the four man unit of Warren, Cissoko, Woolfork, and Williams stays on the field, Michigan has a good secondary. If just one of these dudes goes down, we're in trouble

Advantage Michigan as long as they don't get injured. If Floyd sees significant time, this shifts to ND quickly.

Special Teams

This punt still hasn't landed.

In all seriousness, Michigan holds an advantage in this area given the Zoltan factor as well as the 44-yarder kicked last week by Olesnavage. Notre Dame is starting some sort of freshman walkon not named Rudy at kicker, which is questionable, and has a serviceable punter.

The Upshot

I think Michigan actually has a better defense provided that they are able to stay on the field without their feet and tendons bending the wrong way. Notre Dame's, however, is not far behind and given the fact that the Michigan offense is still new and still run by newbies, we might be in trouble. If Tate can still make the smart decision in the face of the TENUTA-BLITZ, we'll be in business. If he gets flustered, well, it might be time to start thinking about Central.

Conversely, the Notre Dame offense is definitely better at this stage than the Michigan offense. So we've got a superior offense going against a superior defense, and a shaky offense going against a comparatively shaky defense but not as shaky as I'd like.

Much like Brian and House Rock Built guy, I see this coming down to a few big plays. Notre Dame will throw deep, and probably connect on one. Michigan might catch a TENUTA BLITZ on a screen that goes the distance. If we can force Clausen into Yakety-Sax mode - which he's prone to do in the Big House - we'll be in business. If he starts converting 3rd and 7's with regularity, we're toast.

Score predictions up later today.