SB Nation - Jerrell Jackson

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

Bill C. — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:00:17 -0000

Image via The Trib's G.J. McCarthy

You may have noticed that, somewhere around 1pm yesterday, the title of yesterday's "Targets and Catches" post changed to "Targets and Catches (Part One)." That's because I figured out the next direction I wanted to take the concept of targets and couldn't wait to get started on it.

As discussed yesterday, the concept of targets (catches + incomplete passes intended for a given receiver) versus catches is a pretty good one, despite the likely flaws in the ways target data is collected (dropped/tipped passes that become interceptions don't have target data attached, not every scorekeeper probably records targets the same way, etc.). It allows us to look into a receiver's reliability in ways that simpler measures do not, and once national data is collected on this (offseason project #12,424), it might give us a way to measure a quarterback's performance independent of the quality of his receivers (hey Uribe Auction, here's how we get to Receiver Independent Passing Stats, or RIPS...I love it when a plan comes together).

But simply looking at a players Catch% (Catches per Target) does a disservice to those who are likely to run deeper, lower-percentage routes. How about we do this as well: create a Yards Per Target measure. Yards Per Catch is a good way to measure a receiver's explosiveness, and wouldn't the incorporation of target data create something that shows us both explosiveness and reliability? Let's try that.

Below are tables for 2006-09 giving us the following information:

Catches
Yards
Catch% (Catches divided by Targets)
Yards Per Target

2006

2006 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Chase Coffman	TE	58	638	65.2%	7.2
Martin Rucker	TE	53	511	77.9%	7.5
Will Franklin	WR	48	829	57.8%	10.0
Jared Perry	WR	37	429	67.3%	7.8
Brad Ekwerekwu	WR	32	430	64.0%	8.6
Tommy Saunders	WR	25	271	73.5%	8.0
Danario Alexander	WR	15	251	71.4%	12.0
Jason Ray	WR	6	50	40.0%	3.3
Tony Temple	RB	6	34	85.7%	4.9
Earl Goldsmith	RB	5	59	100.0%	11.8
Greg Bracey	WR	3	79	50.0%	13.2
Marcus Woods	RB	2	11	40.0%	2.2
Jimmy Jackson	RB	1	-2	50.0%	-1.0
Andrew Hoskins	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	291	3,590	66.0%	8.1

Here's where we start to see the value of Will Franklin. The 'Copta had an awful catch rate this season, but as we see here, a) he made up for it with his explosiveness, and b) being a deep threat means you're probably seeing more low-percentage passes. Meanwhile, tight ends running high-percentage routes will have good catch rates, but their Yards Per Target figures show that while it's good to have high-percentage targets, there isn't necessarily a lot of explosiveness there.

Two other interesting things to note:

1) Danario was very clearly showing his big-play potential early on. It really is a damn shame that he ended up having to fight so many injuries, but on the bright side, if he hadn't, he'd have almost certainly gone pro last year.

2) Clearly we should have been passing to Earl Goldsmith more often. Ahem.

2007

Image via the inestimable Bill Carter

2007 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Martin Rucker	TE	84	834	77.8%	7.7
Jeremy Maclin	WR	80	1,055	72.1%	9.5
Chase Coffman	TE	52	531	80.0%	8.2
Will Franklin	WR	49	709	64.5%	9.3
Tommy Saunders	WR	41	397	74.5%	7.2
Danario Alexander	WR	37	417	77.1%	8.7
Jared Perry	WR	13	152	65.0%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	10	70	71.4%	5.0
Jason Ray	WR	8	61	80.0%	6.1
Tony Temple	RB	7	68	77.8%	7.6
Jimmy Jackson	RB	6	30	100.0%	5.0
Earl Goldsmith	RB	4	20	66.7%	3.3
Greg Bracey	WR	3	53	33.3%	5.9
Blake May	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	394	4,397	73.2%	8.2

And here's where the numbers even out for Senor Goldsmith.

Even though his YPT dipped in 2007, Franklin was still a decent weapon here, averaging over 9.0 per target (which appears to be a pretty good number) and, as we must not forget, becoming one helluva downfield blocker for Maclin. In all, Chase Coffman was the most reliable target this season, but obviously the WRs were more dangerous, even though they didn't really thrust too many nunchuks.

(Non-RMN regulars just read and re-read that last sentence 5-6 times, then gave up on figuring it out what it meant. Here's the explanation.)

2008

Bill Carter again

2008 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Jeremy Maclin	WR	102	1,260	75.6%	9.3
Chase Coffman	TE	90	987	88.2%	9.7
Tommy Saunders	WR	72	833	78.3%	9.1
Jared Perry	WR	41	567	68.3%	9.5
Derrick Washington	RB	29	277	76.3%	7.3
Danario Alexander	WR	26	329	60.5%	7.7
Andrew Jones	TE	20	146	83.3%	6.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	9	98	69.2%	7.5
Earl Goldsmith	WR	5	58	83.3%	9.7
Michael Egnew	TE	4	22	50.0%	2.8
Jimmy Jackson	RB	3	26	75.0%	6.5
Wes Kemp	WR	1	15	50.0%	7.5
Jon Gissinger	TE	1	10	100.0%	10.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
Forrest Shock	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	403	4,628	76.0%	8.7

Here's where Chase Coffman became the best tight end we'll ever see. He was so reliable that throwing to him actually resulted in more yards per target than Jeremy Maclin, All-American. Here's also where Jared Perry, a.k.a. Will Franklin 2.0, began to show value. He was a reasonably reliable option his first couple of years (obviously targeted much more in 2006 than 2007, when Maclin emerged), but while he still couldn't hit 70% from a Catch% perspective, his big-play ability went up a notch, and he went from averaging 7-8 yards per target to over 9. Meanwhile, Jerrell Jackson registered with numbers very similar to Perry's freshman numbers, albeit on a small sample size.

2009

Yup, Bill Carter.

2009 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Danario Alexander	WR	107	1,644	73.8%	11.3
Jared Perry	WR	46	695	53.5%	8.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	37	458	60.7%	7.5
Wes Kemp	WR	23	335	52.3%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	23	99	69.7%	3.0
Andrew Jones	TE	7	39	58.3%	3.3
Rolandis Woodland	WR	4	23	66.7%	3.8
Michael Egnew	TE	3	25	60.0%	5.0
De'Vion Moore	RB	3	13	100.0%	4.3
Kendial Lawrence	RB	2	42	100.0%	21.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	2	19	66.7%	6.3
T.J. Moe	WR	2	8	40.0%	1.6
Gilbert Moye	RB	1	5	50.0%	2.5
TOTAL	ALL	260	3,405	63.9%	8.4

And here's where we find out just how amazing Danario Alexander has been this season (as if there were any doubt). Looking only at receivers who were targeted at least ten times in a given season, Alexander's 11.3 per-target average is topped only by ... 2006 Danario Alexander, who was targeted only 21 times. For ~~Domino Axelrod~~ Danario to be both this reliable and this explosive has just been amazing.

Here are the overall averages per position:

WR: 67.3% catch rate, 8.7 yards per target
TE: 77.2% catch rate, 8.2 yards per target
RB: 75.0% catch rate, 5.5 yards per target

So for the last four seasons, here are your top ten in terms of Yards Per Target (with a minimum of ten targets):

Danario Alexander (2006): 12.0 per target (on 21 targets)
Danario Alexander (2009): 11.3 (145)
Will Franklin (2006): 10.0 (83)
Chase Coffman (2008): 9.7 (102)
Jeremy Maclin (2007): 9.5 (111)
Jared Perry (2008): 9.5 (60)
Jeremy Maclin (2008): 9.3 (135)
Will Franklin (2007): 9.3 (76)
Tommy Saunders (2008): 9.1 (92)
Danario Alexander (2007): 8.7 (48)

Will Franklin, you are absolved.

Danario Alexander, you officially have a case for having been the best receiver in Mizzou history.

Targets and Catches (Part One)

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

One of the measures I am looking to track more in-depth in the future, in terms of my play-by-play data, is the notion of catches versus targets. In the play-by-play data exists a line that I have yet allowed to go unrecorded: "Pass incomplete to _____." Obviously I record that the pass is incomplete, but I have not really paid attention to who the pass was intended for. It's a rather objective measure -- does everybody record who a pass was intended for the same way? If the QB is throwing the ball away and it goes 20 feet over a certain receiver's head, does it count as an incompletion "to" that receiver? Does every score-keeper even keep track of this? Plus, if a ball is tipped by a receiver and intercepted (e.g. Jerrell Jackson in the Oklahoma State game), the "intended for" bit isn't recorded. Clearly this is a piece of data that is rather inconsistent.

That said, this is also one of those measures where you figure that the inconsistencies balance out over time. Even if it doesn't paint a perfect picture, it probably tells an interesting story. Therefore, let's take a look at how our view of a receiver's (or quarterback's) performance changes when adding in "intended for" data.

The categories below are:

Catches: receptions
Targets: receptions + incomplete passes intended for that receiver (as recorded in the play-by-play data). In general, you can think of those incomplete passes as either being a) dropped or b) too well-covered to be completed. If your QB is accurate, you will obviously catch more of your targeted passes, but if you struggle to get open and clear space from the guy covering you, a lot more of your targeted passes are going to fall incomplete.
Catch%: the percentage of "targets" a receiver catches
Target%: the percentage of a team's overall targets aimed at a specific receiver

Without further ado, let's take a look at the last four years of Mizzou "target" data and see what it tells us.

2006

Image via Phoebe Sexton / Columbia Missourian

2006 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Chase Coffman	58	89	65.2%	20.2%
Will Franklin	48	83	57.8%	18.8%
Martin Rucker	53	68	77.9%	15.4%
Jared Perry	37	55	67.3%	12.5%
Brad Ekwerekwu	32	50	64.0%	11.3%
Tommy Saunders	25	34	73.5%	7.7%
Danario Alexander	15	21	71.4%	4.8%
Jason Ray	6	15	40.0%	3.4%
Tony Temple	6	7	85.7%	1.6%
Greg Bracey	3	6	50.0%	1.4%
Marcus Woods	2	5	40.0%	1.1%
Earl Goldsmith	5	5	100.0%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
Andrew Hoskins	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	291	441	66.0%	100.0%

WRs: 60.1% of targets
TEs: 35.6%
RBs: 4.3%

Before looking at ensuing seasons, it is hard to get a grasp on what these numbers actually mean, but a couple of things should stick out pretty quickly. First, thanks to a midseason bout with the dropsies, Chase Coffman's numbers were only decent, not great. Martin Rucker was a rather automatic target at TE, but Coffman wasn't amazing. Meanwhile, if your #1 WR is only catching 58% of the passes thrown at him, that is going to do a number on your completion percentage.

Anyway, before we try to interpret this too much, let's take a look at how 2007 unfolded.

2007

Image via ESPN.com

2007 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	80	111	72.1%	20.6%
Martin Rucker	84	108	77.8%	20.1%
Will Franklin	49	76	64.5%	14.1%
Chase Coffman	52	65	80.0%	12.1%
Tommy Saunders	41	55	74.5%	10.2%
Danario Alexander	37	48	77.1%	8.9%
Jared Perry	13	20	65.0%	3.7%
Derrick Washington	10	14	71.4%	2.6%
Jason Ray	8	10	80.0%	1.9%
Greg Bracey	3	9	33.3%	1.7%
Tony Temple	7	9	77.8%	1.7%
Earl Goldsmith	4	6	66.7%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	6	6	100.0%	1.1%
Blake May	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	394	538	73.2%	100.0%

WRs: 63.9% of targets
TEs: 32.2%
RBs: 3.9%

Despite a deep, experienced cast of receivers (Rucker and Franklin were seniors, Coffman and Saunders were juniors), Jeremy Maclin came out of nowhere to become Chase Daniel's most trusted receiver. His 72% Catch% was much higher than Will Franklin's 58% from the season before. Meanwhile, MotherRucker stayed right around 78% while Chase Coffman improved dramatically, from 65% to 80%. Franklin did improve to 65%, but he was still a far less reliable target than others around him. Of course, he obviously ran deeper routes than guys like Coffman, Rucker or Saunders, so that might have something to do with it. Then again, were his routes any different than those of Maclin? Maclin still outshone him in that regard.

With Maclin and an extra year of experience for Chase Daniel, the overall Catch% rose from 66% to 73% in 2007. This, of course, tells us nothing about how many passes Daniel chose to throw away (which would just go in the play-by-play as "pass incomplete" with no "intended for" information), but it does show that Daniel was completing one more pass for roughly every 14 catchable balls in 2007, and that could make a difference of 2-3 completions per game.

2008

Image via Chris Lee / Post-Dispatch

2008 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	102	135	75.6%	25.5%
Chase Coffman	90	102	88.2%	19.2%
Tommy Saunders	72	92	78.3%	17.4%
Jared Perry	41	60	68.3%	11.3%
Danario Alexander	26	43	60.5%	8.1%
Derrick Washington	29	38	76.3%	7.2%
Andrew Jones	20	24	83.3%	4.5%
Jerrell Jackson	9	13	69.2%	2.5%
Michael Egnew	4	8	50.0%	1.5%
Earl Goldsmith	5	6	83.3%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	3	4	75.0%	0.8%
Wes Kemp	1	2	50.0%	0.4%
Jon Gissinger	1	1	100.0%	0.2%
Brandon Gerau	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
Forrest Shock	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	403	530	76.0%	100.0%

WRs: 66.6% of targets
TEs: 25.5%
RBs: 7.9%

In 2008, Missouri lost Martin Rucker and his 78% catch rate but still improved as a team, from 73% to 76%. Danario Alexander aside (this was the year he was recovering from knee injuries and was clearly not as confident/aggressive a receiver), just about everybody showed improvement. Coffman improved to a sickening 88% (that means that eight of every nine balls that were thrown at him and were even remotely catchable, were caught...yeah, he deserved the Mackey Award), Saunders improved to 78%, which is the highest you'll see from a highly-targeted receiver, and even Maclin improved to 76%. Having a ton of reps with the same quarterback helped a ton, I'm sure, as did the fact that said quarterback (Daniel) was as automatic as a computer in his reads, especially over the first half of the season.

So what happens when you lose your quarterback and your top three targets? As shocking as it may sound, your numbers go down!

2009

Image via the one, the only Bill Carter

2009 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Danario Alexander	107	145	73.8%	35.6%
Jared Perry	46	86	53.5%	21.1%
Jerrell Jackson	37	61	60.7%	15.0%
Wes Kemp	23	44	52.3%	10.8%
Derrick Washington	23	33	69.7%	8.1%
Andrew Jones	7	12	58.3%	2.9%
Rolandis Woodland	4	6	66.7%	1.5%
Michael Egnew	3	5	60.0%	1.2%
T.J. Moe	2	5	40.0%	1.2%
De'Vion Moore	3	3	100.0%	0.7%
Brandon Gerau	2	3	66.7%	0.7%
Kendial Lawrence	2	2	100.0%	0.5%
Gilbert Moye	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
TOTAL	260	407	63.9%	100.0%

WRs: 86.0% of targets
TEs: 4.2%
RBs: 9.8%

So here's where I start to get encouraged about Blaine Gabbert's prospects moving forward. With a relatively similar cast of characters in the receiving corps (Alexander was clearly better than any receiver in 2006, but Gabbert was without anyone nearing the reliability of Rucker, so they cancel out) and the propensity for throwing many more deep balls than Daniel, the Catch% for Gabbert's sophomore season was almost identical to Daniel's.

Now, unless one of our redshirting freshmen is suddenly capable of pulling a Jeremy Maclin impersonation (doubtful, to say the very least), Gabbert will head into 2010 without his top two targets, which is obviously something Daniel didn't have to worry about heading into 2007. However, while losing Alexander is a huge concern, losing Perry simply might not be too big a deal. Jackson has done a lovely Perry impersonation in recent weeks, and besides, Perry's 54% catch rate is simply horrendous. We know that Perry had a decent amount of bad luck this season -- how many times did Gabbert throw too high for him in the Oklahoma State game? -- but 54% is too low to blame simply on bad luck. Over four seasons, Perry never topped 70%, and while Jackson's 61% is nothing impressive, it is still better than what Perry managed this season. With another year (at least) of getting used to catching Gabbert's fastballs (and another year of Gabbert learning to keep the ball down as much as possible), I would expect Jackson's catch rate to be closer to the 65-70% range next year.

However, is that good enough? Gabbert can be expected to improve a decent amount next year, but ... who becomes the #1 target? And if it's Jackson, can Mizzou succeed at a high level with a #1 WR target catching only 65-70%, especially when there is suddenly no ultra-reliable tight end option to fall back on in times where a completion absolutely must be made?

Speaking of the tight end position, I guess this is the year in which we officially learned that WRs and TEs are basically exactly the same in this system. Alexander's Target% of 35% this year was 10% higher than Maclin ever managed and came within 10% of matching that of Maclin and Coffman from 2008. Lining up in the tight end slot position quite often, Alexander was actually able to approximately compensate for the loss of both players this year and catch passes at a very high rate for a receiver. Meanwhile, thanks to Alexander being a WR, tight ends accounted for only 4% of targets this year, and that's only if you count Michael Egnew as a tight end. The position disappeared from Mizzou's repertoire, but the passing numbers stayed relatively successful thanks to Alexander. With Alexander gone in 2010, do we see guys like Andrew Jones or Egnew working their way back into Gabbert's sights, or will another big receiver like Wes Kemp move into that role?

I have a lot more questions here than answers, but answers weren't the purpose of this exercise. I wanted to see if target data was viable and interesting, and while I found it both of those things, I'm curious what you think.

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm not going to lie. As Mizzou-Kansas ended early Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was that I was going to need help from the BTBS numbers to make sense of everything I just saw. In a game that featured over 1,100 yards of offense, Mizzou's defense made the plays in the last five minutes that won the game. In a game where Danario Alexander and Dezmon Briscoe combined for 29 catches and 475 yards (seriously), it was Andrew Gachkar, Jake Harry, Brian Coulter/Aldon Smith, Derrick Washington and Grant Ressel making the breakthrough plays down the stretch. So many people did so many amazing things ... what do the numbers say about what took place?

The best receiver in the country

	Kansas (39)	Mizzou (41)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	46.6%	46.7%
Leverage %	65.8%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	31.9	33.3
Close Success Rate	50.7%	45.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.44
Close S&P	0.944	0.898

RUSHING
EqPts	5.7	18.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	51.5%
Close PPP	0.35	0.55
Close S&P	0.854	1.066
Line Yards/carry	3.15	3.53

PASSING
EqPts	26.3	15.2
Close Success Rate	50.9%	40.5%
Close PPP	0.46	0.36
Close S&P	0.969	0.766
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.8% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	56.3%	54.0%
PPP	0.36	0.42
S&P	0.927	0.960

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	40.0%	28.0%
PPP	0.58	0.50
S&P	0.977	0.775

TURNOVERS
Number	3	1
Turnover Pts	14.3	4.9
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.4	+9.4

Q1 S&P	1.103	0.952
Q2 S&P	0.976	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.730	1.779
Q4 S&P	0.949	0.456

1st Down S&P	0.838	0.803
2nd Down S&P	0.730	0.888
3rd Down S&P	1.529	1.116

Projected Pt. Margin	-10.8	+10.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

So many things here that I didn't expect to see:

Mizzou's offense was almost nonexistent in Q2 and Q4. Their passing numbers? Only decent, despite Danario Alexander's unbelievable third quarter (7 catches, 181 yards). And they still struggled on passing downs.
Both teams were only decent on 1st and 2nd down, but automatic on 3rd down. KU, especially, had Mizzou's defense on a string on 3rd down ... until their final two, in which Mizzou came up with two game-turning sacks.
Both teams were exactly the same from a Field Position and Leverage standpoint, despite KU starting three drives from inside their 3.
Unsung heroes: Mizzou's offensive line, which allowed one sack and plowed away for over three and a half line yards per carry.

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

I was on Big 12 North Talk Radio Sunday night and was asked about Mizzou's struggling pass defense, and I stammered through an answer about how you probably shouldn't take much away from a rivalry game (after all, Texas A&M gained 530 yards on a dominant Texas defense Thursday night), and how Mizzou's struggles have been caused by different things at different times (no pass rush and poor LB play against KU, poor tackling against Baylor, complete miscommunication against Texas, Carl Gettis' backup getting burned against NU, etc.), but despite that, there's no question that something has been amiss in recent weeks.

Here are Missouri's Passing S&P+ numbers in terms of individual game "+" scores (disregarding Furman). Remember, a) 100 = average, and b) the higher number, the better the performance.

Nevada (193.5)
Colorado (182.3)
Bowling Green (148.9)
Nebraska (109.6)
Oklahoma State (105.4)
Illinois (103.7)
Iowa State (95.6)
Kansas (84.0)
Kansas State (72.9)
Texas (66.8)
Baylor (59.4)

Over the first five games (not counting Furman), Missouri averaged a 132.2. Over the last six, Missouri has averaged a 93.5, and that's with the Colorado outlier. Missouri's five worst games this season all came in the last six weeks (and remember, this is adjusted for opponent, so even if the offenses Mizzou faced improved, that doesn't mean Mizzou's numbers should automatically fall). Meanwhile, Missouri's sack rate has actually improved over that time (from 1.0% on Standard Downs and 8.9% on Passing Downs, to 6.0% on Standard Downs and 9.9% on Passing Downs), actually giving the pass defense numbers a bit of a boost. Obviously the pass rush wasn't great against Kansas, but it's been decent down the stretch.

So what has changed in the last six weeks? For one thing, Carl Gettis got hurt. It was hinted in October and early-November that he hurt himself worse than anybody thought against Nebraska, but while his and Jasper Simmons' injuries absolutely played a role in the Baylor debacle, he's still seemed steady enough that his ankle alone can't explain a 29.2% drop in pass defense. What else has changed? Well, Hardy Ricks was lost for the season. I wouldn't have thought that would have made a difference, but maybe it did? Plus, opponents got film on Simmons and Jarrell Harrison and were probably better able to take advantage of whatever weaknesses they may have. And quite frankly, Kevin Rutland has been maddeningly inconsistent, matching nice pass break-ups with horrible mishaps.

Is there something else I'm missing here? It's not like the scheme has changed. Like it or not, the general philosophy of pass defense is simply not going to change as long as Gary Pinkel is in charge. We are going to run a basic Cover-2, and we're going to give receivers giant cushions and allow the short passes while hoping to tackle well, not get burned deep, and bend just long enough to force a mistake from the opponent. When and how we blitz may change, but in general, we defend the pass as we always have under Pinkel, and that's just the way it is. It's not like opponents suddenly figured out what we were doing and changed their approach halfway through the season. Anyway, I'm all ears. Let me know why you think things have regressed.

No matter what the cause, there's no question that, with opponent taken into account, this pass defense is not as good as in recent years. Whether you want to believe it or not, the opponent had as much to do with last year's regression in raw stats than anything else. Missouri ranked 26th in Defensive Passing S&P+ in 2008 and 17th in 2007, but they rank only 66th this season. Maybe this is just what we should have expected in losing three of four starters in the secondary (and a hit-or-miss pass rush hasn't helped). Or not.

But that's enough negativity. We did, after all, beat Kansas.

Three Positives

Always. Be. Closing. For 55 minutes, the 2008 and 2009 MU-KU games were strikingly similar. For the first half, KU's offense was strong and Mizzou made a series of mistakes, leading to a halftime deficit that could have been a lot worse than it actually was (19-10 in 2008, 21-13 in 2009). Then, Mizzou found their offensive rhythm in the third quarter and stormed back to take a fourth quarter lead (30-26 with 6:52 left in 2008, 36-28 with 13:29 left in 2009). But thanks to some combination of Reesing, Briscoe, and Kerry Meier, KU got the momentum back and, with roughly five minutes left, faced a third down in Mizzou territory.

Here's where things start to diverge. In 2008, Reesing completed a 31-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 to Marcus Herford, setting up a go-ahead TD pass to Meier (who forever earned the middle name of "Effing" after this game). Mizzou responded with a go-ahead drive of their own, but as we all know, Reesing and Meier connected again to win the game in the final minute. For the last five minutes, Reesing was 8-for-11 for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

For the last five and a half minutes on Saturday, Reesing was 0-for-3 passing with two "sacks" (the second one was considered a rush, not a sack) for a loss of 19 yards. After 55 game minutes of stress and momentum changes, KU faced a third-and-goal from Mizzou's 5, and there was absolutely no reason to think KU wouldn't convert. All game long, if Mizzou blitzed, they got burned; if they dropped into coverage, they eventually got burned. Todd Reesing was able to do whatever he wanted to do. But for the first time all game, Mizzou blitzed effectively. Kevin Rutland came at Reesing on a CB blitz, and while Reesing got away, Andrew Gachkar tracked him down and forced an intentional grounding penalty (and yes, it was a good call, as the pass landed about two yards short of the line of scrimmage). Then, nursing a three-point lead, KU now-notoriously attempted to pass out of their endzone and landed two incompletions before Reesing was sandwiched by Aldon Smith and Brian Coulter. He came within about two inches of getting out of the endzone, and those two inches gave Mizzou two points in a two-point win.

Those two inches took 2009 from a decent season to a good one. Coffee is for closers.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle. How freaking big and fast did Blaine Gabbert look in those first-half keepers?? He had a 30-yarder and a 40-yarder in the first half, and while his arm was scattering some inaccurate passes in the second quarter, his legs kept Mizzou in the game before Danario took over in Q3. This goes without saying, but it really is simply amazing how much different Gabbert looks now than he did about six weeks ago, and if Mizzou has any sort of steady receiving weapon in 2010 (Jerrell Jackson, you've got all the opportunity in the world to show what you can do), I cannot wait to see what #11 might be able to do if/when healthy for an entire season.
Domino Axelrod. Remember when Danario Alexander caught eight passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and was the primary reason Mizzou broke out to a 30-point first-half lead? Yeah, that was his eighth-best game of the season. His output from just the last three games (606 yards) would have led the team in receiving in 2005. His three 200-yard receiving games in November match Mizzou's all-time total of 200-yard receiving games before November. The list of Alexander's superlatives this year top anything Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, etc., ever managed ... and trust me, I know what I just said, and I mean it. As I said during the game, we are never going to see sustained WR play like this again, and we need to soak it in for all it's worth.

Three Negatives

Bad time for the linebackers' worst game of the year. I'm a forgiving soul, and I try to stay even-keeled as much as possible. I'm willing to accept that Todd Reesing was simply in a zone for much of the game, and no matter what Missouri did on defense -- blitz, drop everybody into coverage, etc. -- he was just going to make some plays, as was (obviously) Dez Briscoe. But there was one part of the defensive play that I found completely unacceptable, particularly in the first half: coverage of Jake Sharp (and later on, Rell Lewis) out of the backfield. For three years, Sharp has been a more dangerous receiver than runner, and it was no surprise that Reesing would check down to him whenever possible. And yet we left him wide open with run to room, over and over again. For the game, Sharp/Lewis had nine catches for 120 yards. Seven of Sharp's eight catches came in the first half, and four went for first downs, including an inexcusable 17-yard reception on 3rd-and-11 from KU's 1 that allowed KU to get momentum, eventually scoring a touchdown to cap off a 99-yard drive.

How did the dump to the RBs succeed in ways it hadn't in the previous two games at Arrowhead? Who was to blame for this? Again, I have more questions than answers, but in the Cover-2 structure, the main people responsible would appear to be the outside linebackers and the cornerbacks. Indeed, in previous seasons, it was Sean Weatherspoon and Van Alexander making most of the tackles or defending the pass to the RB. Maybe the strategy changed this year, or maybe the LBs were just overloaded with coverage responsibilities considering how long the coverage lasted (thanks to the lack of a pass rush), but between Sharp's and Lewis' success, and the awful personal foul penalty on Spoon that allowed KU to prolong a drive and get seven points instead of three, and the fact that Gachkar went completely missing until the late-game sack, this did appear to be the worst game of the season for the Mizzou LB corps. We survived, and that's good, but they picked a bad time to have their worst game.
"The Scorpion". Again, all's well that ends well, but do you remember at the beginning of the season, when we thought the "Scorpion" defense (where Mizzou features three DEs in passing downs, lining up Aldon Smith at DT) was going to wreak havoc on most of Missouri's opponents? That didn't so much happen. Missouri now ranks 84th in Sack Rates+ this season, and even though things have improved in general over the last half of the season (again, while the overall pass defense was regressing), the pass rush produced almost nothing whatsoever for the game's first 55 minutes on Saturday. That's not a good thing when your general defensive strategy is to blitz as little as possible, drop a ton of defenders into coverage, and hope your pass rush gets to Reesing before somebody comes open. Reesing had a ton of time to find receivers, and his receivers are good enough that they're going to break open eventually. This was like playing Missouri in 2007, and honestly, Reesing looked better for most of Saturday than Chase Daniel did in 2007 when facing the same strategy.

Considering the mid-season improvement, and considering the overall youth of the defensive line (only Jaron Baston and Brian Coulter leave this season, and a majority of the team's DL playmakers return), I'm still guardedly optimistic about this unit in the future, especially considering how well Mizzou stopped the run in conference play, but for the season the pass rush has still been a major disappointment.
The two-point conversion. When Mizzou scored early in the third quarter to get to 21-19, I told my dad to brace himself -- with Gary Pinkel's history with the two-point conversion, there was absolutely a 100% chance that we were going for two, even though it was still early, and there were obviously a ton more points yet to be scored. It's not right, but it's what he does. And being that it's a consistent mind-set, I can more-or-less accept it even though I disagree with the strategy. But man oh man, that one point could have made a huge difference.

(And if you insist on going for two, and you've had to blow a timeout early in the half to figure out what play to call, at least make sure to not call the single most predictable play of the game after the timeout. Those five minutes, which included the decision to go for two, the blown timeout, and the awful play call, were the worst-coached five minutes of the game for Mizzou.)

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

In the end, KU's 40% success rate on passing downs was neither great nor terrible. But the plays they did make on passing downs were gigantic. The 3rd-and-11 dump-off to Sharp that set up the game's first touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Tim Biere on 3rd-and-18 that set up the second touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Briscoe on 3rd-and-9 that set up the third touchdown. And of course, the 74-yard TD bomb to Briscoe on 3rd-and-12 in the fourth quarter. On almost every KU scoring drive, Mizzou had the Jayhawks on the ropes and let them off the hook, and while Reesing deserves quite a bit of credit for the role he played in those passes, that many breakdowns is still inexcusable, and it almost cost Missouri the game.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

Rarely will I nail a game key this tremendously, but for the first 55 minutes, this game was absolutely decided by these two players. Back and forth they went, with Briscoe winning the first two quarters, Alexander almost scoring a TKO in the third quarter, and Briscoe bouncing back in the fourth. For the game, Alexander had more catches (15 to 14) and Briscoe had more yards (242 to 233), but Briscoe's two fumbles and the two miscues to Briscoe on KU's final drive give Danario the edge here. But what a freaking battle it was.

MU's Running Game

[I]f Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Again, nailed it. While Briscoe and Alexander more or less canceled each other out, thanks to Meier and Sharp, KU won the battle of the passing games. But Mizzou won the war because of Derrick Washington and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert took advantage of openings in the first half and ended up with 94 yards rushing for the game; meanwhile, Washington was the finisher, closing with 111 yards and setting up Grant Ressel's game-winner with a wonderful 27-yard run on 3rd-and-2. Throw in Jerrell Jackson's 37-yard end around for a TD, and Mizzou's running game came up bigger than it had all year. Just in time to give us extreme optimism for 2010, huh?

Summary

While at home yesterday, I watched the replay of the game on ESPNU, and it really is amazing how many times the momentum turned and, over the course of the game, how many players made contributions to this win. Blaine Gabbert with his first-half rushes and great decision-making in the second half. Jacquies Smith with the forced fumble of Briscoe, and Carl Gettis for a forced fumble and two recoveries. Danario Alexander with his third quarter for the ages. Wes Kemp with his killer down-field blocking. Jerrell Jackson with his end-around (and De'Vion Moore with his amazing blocking on the play). Kip Edwards with his interception of Reesing, ensuring a one-possession deficit at halftime. Derrick Washington with his devastating second-half rushing. Andrew Gachkar with his fourth-quarter sack. Kevin Rutland with his fantastic man-to-man defense on the bomb to Briscoe on KU's final drive. Coulter and Agent Smith for their safety. Jake Harry for getting THREE punts downed inside the 3. Grant Ressel for capping off the most improbably great kicking season ever with a ride on the shoulders of his teammates. Despite all the breakdowns and all the stress the game's first 55 minutes produced, Mizzou made every play when the game was on the line, and they came away with one of the more satisfying, endearing wins of the Pinkel era. We now await the bowl announcement, knowing that a) Missouri will finish no worse than they did in 2006 (Chase Daniel's sophomore season), and b) Todd Reesing's career ended in the same endzone in which KU's national title hopes ended two seasons ago. There's poetry, and then there's poetry.

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-KU

Bill C. — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:30:19 -0000

I've gotta say, I had so much trouble paring Bill Carter's pictures down to just these 32 today. He outdid himself once again, and we are extremely grateful for his work this season. Hopefully we'll have some basketball/wrestling galleries to share over the next few months as well.

As always, click on each picture for a bigger version, and once again re-live the greatness that was (eventually) Saturday afternoon and evening.

The Morning After: Links

Bill C. — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:55:16 -0000

by Orlin Wagner - AP

25 days ago: Missouri kicker Grant Ressel (95) is carried off the field by teammate after a last second field goal in their NCAA college football game against Kansas Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Missouri defeated Kansas 41-39. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

View full size photo »

I'm traveling back to MO this morning, so instead of posting further thoughts on what we witnessed yesterday, here are a handful of links and, after the jump, yesterday's liveblog.

The Trib: Grant Ressel boots Tigers to victory
KC Star: Ressel mania: MU kicker connects for wild Border War victory
KC Star: Air smells sweeter for Mizzou when beating Kansas
KC Star: PHOTO GALLERY
KC Star: KU fans are torn in their allegiance to Mangino
KC Star: Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe share the pain of this loss
KC Star: Border war buzz | Reesing OK with play calls
The Missourian: Ressel's field goal lifts Missouri football past Kansas
The Missourian (Robert Mays): Danario Alexander's latest performance cause for Missouri football debate
The Missourian: Kansas football fans mixed on subject of Mangino
Post-Dispatch: Tigers get their kicks
Post-Dispatch: Insight Bowl may be next for MU
Post-Dispatch (Bryan Burwell): Pinkel's big gamble hits the jackpot
When he was reminded that his defense hadn’t made an important stop for most of the darned game (KU was a staggering 9 of 15 on third-down conversions and had already given up two scoring drives that began inside the KU 2), I asked Pinkel why in the world he decided to take a chance on his struggling defense at such a critical moment like this.

"You look at percentages," he said. "And you look at odds."

And then he smiled a delicious smile that had validation written all over it.

"But mostly you have to go on a gut feeling," he said. "I trust my gut because it's done me well over the years."

And oh my goodness, his gut sure was right and we sure were wrong.
PowerMizzou: Arrowhead thriller
PowerMizzou: PHOTO GALLERY
PowerMizzou: PMTV: That's a winner
PowerMizzou: PMTV: From the locker room
PowerMizzou: Instant Analysis
Lawrence Journal-World: Ressel's last-second field goal gives MU 41-39 victory over KU
Lawrence Journal-World: Mangino 'optimistic' he'll return next season
Lawrence Journal-World (VIDEO): Highlights
Lawrence Journal-World (VIDEO): Season over, seniors done
Daily Kansan: Era ends in Border Showdown loss
Mizzourah: On Field Celebration Video

Far too long liveblog after the jump...

2:32 - Greetings from OKC...I'm at my parents' house, getting ready to watch the game from the exact same seat in which I watched last year's game. If that's not an awesome omen, I don't know what is. I'm just going for the reverse jinx here, trying to offset the effect of "coach's last game" syndrome that always seems to eat Mizzou up...you know...Dan McCarney, Bill Snyder (the first time), etc. Reverse those effects, and I love our chances today...at least, as soon as I see that we're capable of stopping a quick sideline pass for less than eight yards.

2:36 - Oh, and it's already been covered in the comments thread, but WOW are KU's jerseys hideous. Probably not as bad as Mizzou's gold jerseys last year (still haven't recovered from that), but bad.

First Quarter

2:37 - Woohoo! KU receives the kick! Mizzou will actually get the ball in the second half! And double woohoo...we didn't kick to Briscoe! Short kick, and KU will start around their 35.

2:38 - Alright, here we go...Reesing's first pass is broken up! I'll take it...quickly to second down, where the aforementioned quick pass to Kerry Meier goes for about six yards. Third-and-4 coming..

2:39 - ...and Meier gets it easily. Get used to this.

2:41 - After back-to-back quick passes to Jake Sharp, it's 3rd-and-6...an official passing down...this is where Mizzou's gotta make stops...

...and it's broken up! Mizzou must have had amazing coverage, as Reesing had about 25 seconds to find a guy and couldn't. Nice break-up by Kip Edwards on the deep ball, and KU will punt. It rolls into the endzone, and Mizzou will start at the 20. And they get the ball to start the second half! Win-win!

2:43 - First play for Mizzou...Gabbert has a ton of time, and he finds Jerrell Jackson for 16! I'll take that.

2:44 - After an eight-yard run by Gabbert, D-Wash plows through for another first down, and in three plays, Mizzou is past midfield.

2:44 - Another pass to Jackson nets about six...that's two passes to Jackson, both into the body, where it can't be dropped. And on second down, a quick pass to D-Wash gets another first down to the KU 33.

2:45 - The first pass to Danario Alexander is a quick sideline pass, and KU was ready. Gabbert has to throw the ball away on second down, and Mizzou faces their first third-down of the day...third-and-10...make that third-and-15 after a delay of game penalty...Mizzou's not good in Passing Downs...

2:47 - Reverse jinx unsuccessful. Gabbert overthrows, um, whoever he was aiming for, and it's fourth down from the 40. Mizzou will punt. They've flipped the field, but the drive was starting out pretty promising.

2:48 - OUTSTANDING punt...Harry kicks it up at the 1, and Beau Brinkley downs it there. KU to start at their 1, in the endzone in which Todd Reesing became Sod Reesing two years ago...

2:51 - Ballsy play call...Reesing goes deep on first down but goes too deep. Second down.

2:52 - After another misfired incompletion, it's third-and-10...would wager a thousand dollars that he's going short to Sharp here...

2:53 - ...but first, KU calls timeout. STUPID timeout, as a delay of game penalty would have been a loss of about six inches...

2:54 - Alright...third-and-10...and KU false starts. Sweet jesus, are the out of sorts right now...KNOCK ON WOOD...

2:55 - Third-and-11 after the penalty...and...yup...underneath to Jake Sharp. Um, if I was willing to wager a thousand dollars on that play, that means it shouldn't have worked for a first down. Come on, guys. KU to their 18.

2:56 - Quick pass to McDougald, who gets a first down and is hit late out of bounds. Mizzou now peeing themselves, and just like that, KU's to the MU 45. Awesome. MASSIVELY blown opportunity...and before I can finish typing that, it's 18 yards for Briscoe.

2:57 - Five yards to Meier...is it possible that KU's given up on the run before actually running once? I mean, it's working, but wow...12 passes, 0 runs...

2:58 - False start on KU, which is good...only they're capable of backing themselves up right now...

2:59 - Ugh. Reesing breaks free to the 11. Mizzou had them at the 1-inch line on third down, now they're going to score.

3:00 - After a short gain for Briscoe, Mizzou blitzes but doesn't get there, leaving Briscoe open in the endzone. Touchdown. Terrible dropped dagger by the Mizzou defense. 9 plays, 98 yards, 7-0.

3:03 - Oy...well...that could have been bad. Jasper Simmons drops the kickoff, but he gathers it up and gets out to the 24. Alright, boys...respond.

3:04 - After a quick six-yarder to Danario, Gabbert EXPLODES up the middle for 30 yards...wow...that was some serious strong, fast running from #11, and Mizzou's to the KU 40. KU's Caleb Blakesley is injured, so we're taking a timeout...

3:08 - First play after timeout, and a really weird double option play goes to Danario for a first down...creative. Mizzou to the 31.

3:08 - Gabbert escapes pressure on first down and picks up three...I just cannot say enough how much faster he looks right now...dude's got another gear that he very obviously didn't have in October...

3:09 - After a short run by D-Wash, it's third-and-4...KU blitzes and Gabbert lobs one a hair too far for Jackson in the endzone...fourth-and-4, and Grant Ressel will attempt a 43-yarder...

3:11 - It's perfect, despite the "He's the most accurate kicker in the country" jinx. 7-3 KU. Decent response, though we need to quit stalling out in KU territory.

3:12 - Nice kickoff coverage...kick goes to McDougald, who is wrapped up inside the 30. Alright, defense, time to atone for your sins...

3:13 - Hey hey, a KU running play...power sweep (sort of) to Sharp for a decent gain of about five...followed by a quick pass to Sharp for about 20 yards or so. Seriously, how in the hell do you lose him out of the backfield again? And before I can finish that sentence, they run the same goddamn play to the other side of the field, with similar success. They are being far too freaking predictable to fool Mizzou.

3:15 - Woohoo, another KU penalty...this time a 15-yard chop block. They're the only ones slowing themselves down. Am REALLY annoyed with the defense right now, and I'm a forgiving person.

3:16 - After a pass deflection on 1st-and-25, Reesing escapes another rush (god I hate this guy) and gains about seven. Third-and-18. You MUST NOT let them convert this. You do not deserve to win if you start giving up 3rd-and-18...

3:17 - ...and Reesing calls his second timeout.

3:18 - ...and then KU converts 3rd-and-18. No pass rush whatsoever, and Reesing finds some white guy for a huge gain to the 1. Tim Biere. This is inexcusable. You can sacrifice a pass rush for blanket coverage, and right now Mizzou's got neither. And Reesing sneaks in from the 1. Disgusting. 14-3. Last year the offense was horrific in the first half, this year it's the defense. And Kansas hasn't had to do a single thing out of their normal repertoire.

3:22 - And a block in the back on the kickoff return. Awesome. Mizzou starts at their 9.

3:23 - Fake reverse to Alexander, and Gabbert finds Jackson for a first down.

3:23 - After a seven-yard keeper by Gabbert, it's a tunnel screen to Rolandis Woodland (hey hey!) for a first down. And that's the end of the first quarter. I'd say it can only get better for the Mizzou defense in the final 45 minutes, but that's far from a certainty. And I haven't even begun to address why in the world Marcus Malbrough has been playing on almost every down. Is Aldon Smith hurt or something?

Second Quarter

3:28 - Alright, Mizzou starts the quarter from their 39...and Gabbert picks up about 3. I like that he's capable of running so well, but holy crap, we're going to him a lot. On second down, Gabbert finds Jackson for a first down to midfield.

3:29 - Reverse to Jerrell Jackson, and there's a flag. Block in the back on Wes Kemp AND personal foul on Kurtis Gregory. Sweet. First-and-25.

3:30 - Alexander picks up some of the penalty yardage, fighting for about 10 yards. Second-and-15.

3:31 - KU blitzes...Mizzou picks it up, but Gabbert throws it a little high to Kemp, and Kemp can't reel it in...third-and-long...awesome...I'm sure this will end well.

3:32- ...actually, it does end well. Gabbert goes long to Kemp, and there's a pass interference call on Chris Harris. Not sure about that one, but I'll take it. First down!

3:33 - Wildcat snap to D-Wash for no gain...I don't think we practice that enough to be good at it. 2nd-and-11. Gabbert throws high to Jackson on second down, and we've got 3rd-and-long once again! Awesome. Three trips into KU territory, three stalled drives...

3:34 - ...reverse jinx somewhat successful. Alexander gets about seven yards, and it's 4th-and-2...this would be about a 50-yard FG, so I assume we're going for it...yep...

3:35 - ...and we get it. Out route to Alexander for about eight. First down. Holding on by a string here. Five catches for Danario.

3:36 - Wow...Gabbert tries to escape the pocket but doesn't see the Onyegbule coming from the side. Fumble, KU recovers. Sigh. And Gabbert's a little roughed up.

3:37 - Six-yarder to Briscoe, then an easy first down to Meier...who fumbles...but they're saying he was down. REALLY close. They'll review, but I assume it'll remain KU's ball. Of course, the announcers are PISSING ME OFF, saying he was clearly down, as there was nothing clear about it.

3:39 - Yup, still KU ball.

3:40 - Hey hey! Mizzou was accounting for the dump-off to Sharp! No gain! Option to Sharp gets only about three, so once again it's a passing down on third down for KU...no reason to think KU won't convert this one too.

3:41 - Reverse jinx successful! Easy pass to Briscoe for a first, but he drops it. Once again, only KU can stop KU. Either way, a bullet dodged, and KU will punt.

3:42 - And after a kick-catch interference, Mizzou actually starts with good field position for once! Okay, not good, but the 34's not terrible.

3:45 - Hmm...apparently Gabbert can only throw an accurate pass to Alexander right now. Another one that's off to Jackson. Second down.

3:46 - Terrible out pass to Kemp, and just like that it's 3rd-and-10...oy...

3:46 - ...and Gabbert overthrows Alexander. Three off passes, and time to punt. Not a great sign.

3:47 - Wow, Jake Harry for MVP. A 56-yard bomb and good coverage, and KU will start at their 11. Alright, defense, KU did you a favor last time...keep stepping it up...

3:49 - Wow, Will Ebner lights up Dez Briscoe after five yards...I do enjoy that he hits hard enough that he doesn't have to form tackle...of course, I'd prefer he also form tackle, but whatever...

3:50 - Another sideline pass to Briscoe, who fights for a first down but is stripped by Jacquies Smith! The Carl Gettis Treatment recovers and returns it to the KU 5. They're reviewing it, but it was pretty clearly a fumble...my head's going to explode if this is overturned.

3:52 - Mizzou ball! First-and-goal!

3:53 - Tough Gabbert keeper gets to the 2...second down...

3:53 - Washington to the 1...third down...the color commentator is talking smack about how hard it is to score in the red zone out of the spread...despite all evidence to the contrary. Seriously, watch college football occasionally. That narrative died two years ago.

3:54 - Case in point: touchdown, D-Wash! 14-10! Under six minutes left in Q2...

3:58 - Another pooch kick, this one to Darrell Stuckey, who returns it to the 34. I hate having to do that, but it's absolutely the smart play.

3:59 - Two quick passes, one to Briscoe and one to Meier, and KU's to the 46.

4:00 - Okay, credit where it's due on the shovel pass...it looked like Mizzou had that eaten up, and Reesing threaded it to Sharp anyway.

4:01 - After Meier slips after a 1-yard gain, Reesing overthrows McDougald (KU's #1 WR in 2010), and it's third-and-9...I'm not optimistic.

4:02 - ...yup. Briscoe wide open underneath AGAIN, and he weaves inside the Mizzou 10.

4:03 - Touchdown, Meier. Sigh. Seen this before. 21-10. We're not blitzing, and Reesing is picking us apart. I realize blitzing might not work either, but hey...gotta try something...

4:07 - Nice return by Simmons, who is getting plenty of opportunities today...

4:07 - Nice, accurate pass to Jackson for a first down, and Mizzou's near midfield already. Under three minutes left in the half...

4:08 - After a short run by D-Wash, Gabbert goes deep to Jackson but is a bit too long...that's about the fifth "just too long" deep ball of the day. Disorienting, considering how accurate he's been the last couple of weeks.

4:09 - Also disorienting: Blaine Gabbert running VERY fast down the sidelines for almost a 40-yard gain...WOW...first-and-ten from the KU 11...

4:10 - No gain for D-Wash on first down, followed by a well-covered incompletion. Quickly, it's third down from the 10 with 1:09 left. Mizzou is 0-for-5 on third downs today. Just run a dump-off and make sure the clock's running if you don't get the first down...I do NOT want KU getting the ball back with a minute left.

4:10 - Ugh. Jump ball to Alexander incomplete, and the clock will stop with over a minute left.

4:12 - Ressel's field goal is good. 21-13, and KU's got a minute left. Do not want.

4:13 - Ugh again. Short kick to Stuckey, who barely steps out of bounds at midfield.

4:14 - Wow. Mizzou gets a little pressure on Reesing, who pump fakes and then throws DIRECTLY to Kip Edwards. Mizzou ball around midfield with 0:40 left.

4:15 - Nice coverage by KU on back-to-back plays, and it's quickly third down...and Gabbert throws deep and incomplete to Woodland. Mizzou to punt, but as long as it's not blocked, Mizzou will go into halftime down just eight. Could have been worse.

4:17 - Another beautiful Harry punt, and it's downed at the 5...KU will down it, and that's halftime. Could be better for Mizzou, but I guess it could be a LOT worse. And for once, we get the ball to start the second half.

Third Quarter

4:39 - Alright, here we go. Simmons with another solid return to the KU 35. Let's see if Gabbert's settled down a little. His hyped state seems to have helped his rushing and hurt his passing.

4:40 - First pass: broken up after a scramble right.

4:40 - Second pass: quickly to Danario, who runs for a first down. Love that play. Mizzou to their 45.

4:41 - Third pass: a 150-mph dart to Danario, who can't handle it.

4:42 - Fourth pass: quickly to Danario, who...is Danario. He breaks tackles, outruns guys, and gets down to the KU 26.

4:43 - D-Wash for 12 yards, then D-Wash for 14...touchdown! Brilliant blocking. And of course we're going for two...we always do...and we call timeout. Sigh.

4:45 - Keeper by Gabbert is eaten up, as everybody in the stadium knew Gabbert was keeping it, despite the fact that we blew a timeout to reconsider. 21-19.

4:48 - Woah...deep kickoff to Briscoe...was that intentional? Either way, it was well-covered, and KU will start inside their 25.

4:49 - Nice, tough run for a first down by Jake Sharp, and you know what? I'm fine with that. Let him keep running--it's when they're passing and he drifts into the open that he becomes a bigger weapon.

4:50 - After an off-target pass by Reesing, Mizzou blitzes and Reesing barely finds Briscoe, but Kevin Rutland is called for "grabbing the helmet opening"...pretty shoddy call...his hand ended up there, but there was no grabbing. Either way, KU's in Mizzou territory.

4:52 - Another tough run by Sharp. His first good MU-KU game. First down at the MU 36.

4:52 - A short pass to Meier for four yards, followed by a false start, and it'll be 2nd-and-11.

4:53 - Eight yards to Meier, and it'll be 3rd-and-3...allowing this conversion is more excusable...

4:54 - ...of course, allowing Reesing to camp out for 15 seconds and find Biere for an easy catch is not. KU to the 15.

4:54 - Hello, Brian Coulter! Stops Sharp for a gain of 1.

4:55 - Pressure on Reesing, and he fires too hard for Jonathan Wilson, incomplete. Third-and-9. HOLD THEM HERE.

4:56 - Hey hey! Kip Edwards breaks up the pass to Briscoe, and KU has to settle for a FG.

4:57 - Or not. Sean Weatherspoon is called for a personal foul on the field goal, and it's first down, KU. And ABC REFUSES to show a replay, which naturally leads me to believe it was a terrible call.

4:58 - Reesing gets to the 2 on first down, and Sharp gets nothing on second down...third-and-goal...still waiting for a replay on the 'Spoon penalty...

4:59 - Third-and-goal...and Reesing has to call timeout. And ABC STILL WON'T SHOW WHAT SPOON DID. This is unbelievable.

5:00 - Touchdown, Meier. Phantom penalty on 'Spoon hands KU four extra points. And yes, I will continue calling it a horrendous, B.S., phantom penalty until ABC decides to show me what happened. Freaking inexcusable. 28-19.

5:02 - According to s dub in comments,

Spoon "hit the center prior to being allowed to hit him" acc. to referee. Pinkel livid

Via Dave Matter's twitter.

Wow. If we lose by less than four points, I'm going to lose my mind.

5:04 - Simmons with another solid return, out past the 30. By the way, it's 5:04, and there is 7:24 left in the THIRD QUARTER.

5:05 - Quick pass to Danario for only five this time, and Jerrell Jackson limps off the field. Then, a quick four yards for Danario, and it's third-and-1. Uhh, big play here.

5:06 - KU is so paranoid about Danario that D-Wash easily scampers for a first down and then some.

5:07 - Wow...after gimping off the field, Jackson comes back, takes an end around and scores from 37 yards. Didn't see that coming. 28-26, and again, we are BARELY halfway through the third quarter. This game's going to last until 8pm.

5:08 - So Mizzou now has 21 rushes for 202 yards today. And 31 passes for 149 yards. Just as we expected, right?

5:10 - Sigh...another deep kickoff...only it goes out of bounds. Ball at the 40.

5:11 - Bradley McDougald's pretty good. Quick pass to him, and he avoids getting lit up by two guys and gets the first down. KU already to midfield.

5:12 - After a Rell Lewis drop, Reesing finds Briscoe after about 38 seconds in the pocket, and after a really nice run, The Carl Gettis Treatment strips him, and Jarrell Harrison recovers. So THAT's the gameplan. Let them catch is and run, then strip them. A surefire winner!

5:14 - D-Wash with a drop, then a 5-yard run, and it's third down...

5:15 - God I'm going to miss Danario Alexander so much. He ditches his defender on a slant, then STORMS downfield for a 68-yard touchdown. Wow. Meanwhile, Jerrell Jackson waves at a KU defender and gets flagged for 15 yards. In the first half, Todd Reesing almost headbutted a Mizzou defender after a first down. No flag. Either way, Mizzou is up 33-28, so I'll stop complaining, especially after the kickoff is only taken to the 35. Net win for Mizzou.

5:18 - Okay, Mizzou just got called for ANOTHER personal foul that ABC has no account for, and KU's at the 50. Crazy calls here, and incredibly bad coverage by ABC.

5:19 - Sharp is stuffed on first down, and The Carl Gettis Treatment breaks up a pass on second down...and it's 3rd-and-10...HUGE play here...which isn't usually a good sign for the Mizzou defense...

5:20 - ...and that's a delay of game penalty. Third-and-15. For the love of god, please stop them here...

5:21 - YES. Reesing is pressured and has to dump it off, and Kevin Rutland BLOWS UP Sharp. Fourth down, and KU will punt. It's downed at the 12, and MU will take over with 2:15 left in the longest freaking quarter in the history of the world.

5:23 - Aww...Danario just ROASTS a defender on a double move...59 yards later, Mizzou's inside the KU 35. We are so spoiled watching this. This is the best sustained WR play we will EVER see. 11 catches, 205 yards. Four straight games with 180+ yards.

5:24 - Make that 12 for 212. Sets up a 3rd-and-3...

5:25 - ...and Gabbert picks up the first down to the 22.

5:25 - And now it's D-Wash's turn to bull over four tacklers for another first down to the 12. Wow. What a way to end the third quarter.

Fourth Quarter

5:29 - Alright, here we go...final 15 minutes...Gabbert gets about two on first down.

5:30 - Second down...and Gabbert's sacked. The end of the quarter came at a terrible time, as KU got their legs back. Third-and-17 from the 19, and Mizzou will call timeout. I'm all for aggressive play-calling here, but nothing stupid, please...the field goal will put us up 8...(and of course, if we hadn't gone for two earlier, a field goal would put us up 9...as my dad has mentioned, um, a couple of times now)...

5:33 - Alright, here we go...Gabbert under pressure, and Mizzou will settle for the field goal. Huge kick here, and once again, the "most accurate kicker" jinx is in effect...

5:34 - And he's perfect. Again. 36-28. I like that score for some reason...hmm...can't figure out why...

5:35 - Deep kickoff to Briscoe, and it's stopped at the 29. I'll take it.

5:36 - Nice pass by Reesing to Briscoe for 8...he's still completing some passes, but Mizzou's making it harder on him...or has so far...no need for a jinx there...

5:37 - Reesing picks up the first down on the option, but there's a hold. Second-and-12 from the 26...and Reesing's pass is off-target. Third-and-12...

5:38 - Mizzou blitzes...and Reesing finds Briscoe for a 74-yard touchdown. Yep. For all those asking why we don't blitz more, that's why. Briscoe's really good. KU will now go for 2, and for my dad's sake, I REALLY hope they don't get it...

5:39 - They get it. Meier finally comes open after, what, 15 seconds? 30? 36-36. This game has had 124 momentum changes.

5:43 - Simmons is still shaken from being burned by Briscoe apparently, and he has to fall on the ball at the 19. Not quite the way I wanted to start this drive. Or not! Offsides on KU! Re-kick!

5:44 - Yeah, I like that one better. Simmons to the 45.

5:45 - Confusing play there...play fake by Gabbert, who looks to run, then pass, then run again, and he loses two yards. Second down.

5:46 - Ugh. Pass for no gain to Washington, and it's the always-to-be-avoided third-and-long...KU's got the momentum back...and there are STILL 11 minutes left in the game...time for another five momentum changes...

5:47 - Blitz comes, and Gabbert escapes for a four-yard gain, and on comes Jake Harry IV, the guy who WAS MVP before Danario became Danario.

5:48 - God bless you, Jake IV. Bounces at the 15 and rolls to the 1-inch line. Lovely. 9:44 left.

5:49 - After a move-the-pile run picks up about 6 yards, Will Ebner crushes Rell Lewis for no gain, and it's 3rd-and-4...

5:50 - Ugh...we drop seven into coverage and get no pressure whatsoever. EVENTUALLY he finds Briscoe for 25. Oy. We can't blitz, and we can't drop seven again.

5:51 - Nice rush by Brad Madison, getting a hand on Reesing and forcing an incompletion. Second down.

5:52 - And Carl Gettis will want to forget that this play ever happened. Dump-off to Rell Lewis, who juked him out of his shoes, and 40+ yards later, KU's in scoring position. Oy. MU-KU games cannot be any crazier.

5:52 - Hello, Aldon Smith. His first big play is an eight-yard sack...and it's negated by a 17-yard pass to Briscoe. And then Lewis plows forward for a first down. He's way fresher than the Mizzou defense. First down from the 6...

5:54 - Gachkar stops Lewis on first down, and Reesing throws a perfect fade to Meier on second down, only Meier wasn't looking...third down. Um, big play.

5:55 - Hey hey! Mizzou blitzes and it works! Intentional grounding on Reesing, and it'll be a 39-yard FG attempt...

5:56 - The kick is perfect, and it's 39-36 KU with 5:10 left. Now Mizzou not only has to score, but they have to eat up about 5:09 doing it.

5:59 - Nice return by Kemp, and Mizzou will once again start past their 30. I'm too tired to be nervous right now. Of course, that doesn't mean that the false start that just happened is okay by me. First-and-15.

6:00 - KU's ready for the quick pass to Danario now. Second-and-11.

6:01 - Wow...Danario with a catch on a slant and carries two guys for ten yards. Third-and-1.

6:01 - UGH. Washington slips in the backfield. Loss of four. GOD THAT SUCKS SO MUCH. I REALLY hate football right now. Fourth-and-4, and it's just far enough that Mizzou will go for it. And it's pretty much a given that Harry's punt will be downed at the 1, which it is. Three minutes left, Mizzou with one timeout. One first down, and it's pretty much over...unless they get the first down on the first play.

6:05 - First-and-10: deep ball? Incomplete, and it stops the clock. Ballsy call, but now that it didn't work, I get to call it stupid.

6:05 - Second-and-10: ANOTHER incomplete pass. Briscoe slipped and almost batted it straight into the air for a pick six. Oh that would have been great.

6:06 - Third-and-10: HOLY CRAP. POCKET COLLAPSES ON REESING, AND HE'S SACKED FOR A SAFETY. 39-38, 2:45 LEFT. Huge gamble by KU, and it did not work. WOW.

6:08 - Gettis returns the free kick near midfield. Flags down, probably off-setting unsportsmanlike conduct. Yup.

6:09 - Draw play by Gabbert gets about three, then D-Wash picks up the first down to the KU 40. 1:57 left.

6:10 - Wow...Gabbert throws it away after about eight seconds of needing to throw it away. Second down, 1:32 left.

6:11 - Eight yards for Danario on second down...would be a 50-yarder...1:16 left...

6:12 - Third-and-2...and...WOW...D-Wash gets the first down...keeps moving...keeps moving...breaks into the open field...and he's tackled at the 5. WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW. Injured Jayhawk on the play...

6:13 - KU calls their second timeout with :51 left on first down. Kneel it, make KU call their last timeout with :48 left, then kneel it again, kneel it again, then call timeout with :03 left. None of that "kick it on third down" crap. This is extra point length. Trust your guys to make it in one try.

6:15 - Mizzou does just that...kneels it and runs it down to :04 left. Now the announcers will remind us that Ressel is the most accurate kicker in the country at least 26 times to attempt a Wolfert-in-the-Alamo-Bowl jinx.

6:17 - Alright, here we go...come on, Ressel...

...

...it's good. Of course it is. 41-39. Final. I'm almost dripping sweat right now. Wow.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Be sure to check out the Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine comparison after the jump.

	Iowa St. (24)	Mizzou (34)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	44.1%	52.5%
Leverage %	69.1%	82.5%

TOTAL
EqPts	20.7	31.7
Close Success Rate	48.5%	57.5%
Close PPP	0.30	0.40
Close S&P	0.790	0.971

RUSHING
EqPts	6.6	13.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	56.3%
Close PPP	0.28	0.28
Close S&P	0.776	0.838
Line Yards/carry	3.14	3.07

PASSING
EqPts	14.1	18.4
Close Success Rate	47.7%	59.4%
Close PPP	0.32	0.58
Close S&P	0.797	1.170
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 15.8%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	55.3%	60.6%
PPP	0.29	0.46
S&P	0.842	1.064

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	33.3%	42.9%
PPP	0.34	0.11
S&P	0.673	0.534

TURNOVERS
Number	2	1
Turnover Pts	6.7	3.6
Turnover Pts Margin	-3.1	+3.1

Q1 S&P	1.002	0.924
Q2 S&P	0.887	0.682
Q3 S&P	0.725	1.515
Q4 S&P	0.348	0.819

1st Down S&P	0.782	1.262
2nd Down S&P	1.042	0.810
3rd Down S&P	0.294	0.565

Projected Pt. Margin	-14.1	+14.1
Actual Pt. Margin	-10	+10

Quick reactions...

Obviously very nice offensive output for Mizzou, though with an 82.5% Leverage Rate (which means that 82.5% of Mizzou's offensive plays were run on Standard Downs and only 17.5% on Passing Downs) you'd have almost expected more success. Then again, Mizzou was quite unsuccessful on those Passing Downs, as they have been all year. Which, really, is pretty healthy. Passing Downs success comes with experience, and while Mizzou has shown on Standard Downs that they are plenty talented and athletic, they don't yet have the chops for Passing Downs. It'll come.
That said, Mizzou did have a 42.9% success rate on Passing Downs, which was pretty good; in fact, I'd say that while PPP is probably more important on Standard Downs, success rate is more important on Passing Downs, and Mizzou showed some nice progress in that regard.
Gotta say, ISU's rushing success rate was higher than I expected. It really didn't feel like the Cyclones ever really got going on the ground, as evidenced by Alexander Robinson's 14 carries for 56 yards (4.0 per carry), but they were just efficient enough to keep them moving forward, and they were able to utilize the shorter passes because they had fewer yards to go to move the chains. Of course, ISU's offensive output got worse with every passing quarter, so it only worked for so long.
As demonstrated in last week's preview, Iowa State potentially has the best offensive line in the North division, and Mizzou held up relatively well. ISU did average a strong 3.14 line yards per carry, and Austen Arnaud was never sacked on Standard Downs, but Mizzou's three Passing Downs sacks were drive-killers and potentially made the difference in the game.
I also said in last week's preview that ISU's pass rush was so weak that any sack allowed would be too many. Well...0 is a pretty good number, no? That's two straight weeks where Mizzou faced a weaker pass rush but didn't slip up even once.

Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine

The difference between Blaine Gabbert's one-legged production and two-legged production is simply staggering at this point.

Healthy Blaine
Stats: 182-for-278 passing, 2,487 yards, 21 TD, 2 INT; 63 carries, 156 yards, 2 TD
Rates: 65.5% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 7.6% TD rate, 0.7% INT rate; 2.5 yards per carry

Injured Blaine:
Stats: 42-for-95 passing, 512 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT; 14 carries, -22 yards, 1 TD
Rates: 44.2% completion rate, 5.4 yards per pass, 1.1% TD rate, 5.3% INT rate; -1.6 yards per carry

Just a simply insane difference, even in the rushing stats.

But there's an obvious disclaimer here: Mizzou faced the Nebraska and Texas defenses while injured, and his stats wouldn't have been as good in those games even if healthy. So the question for today is, what would he have produced against Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas if healthy?

Thanks to the "+" measures, we can create a pretty good estimate. To do so, we're going to look at one specific measure: Passing PPP+, or EqPts per Pass. As you know, EqPts create an estimated point value for every play (and the "+" is the schedule adjustment), so if we can determine what Mizzou's PPP+ was for Healthy Blaine and Injured Blaine, we can estimate what Missouri may have produced if Injured Blaine never happened. (And we're keeping rushing stats out of the equation to keep things simple.)

Passing PPP+, Healthy Blaine: 149.4
Passing PPP+, Injured Blaine: 92.1

So even taking opponent strength into account, Injured Blaine produced 62% of what Healthy Blaine produced, which is just a tremendous drop-off. So if we take the Healthy Blaine PPP+ and apply it to the passes thrown by Injured Blaine, you get the following added production (assuming the exact same number of passes were thrown against NU/OSU/UT, which of course is a faulty premise, but it's what we've got):

vs Nebraska: +2.0 Passing EqPts (the rain was going to wipe out a good portion of the passing attack regardless)
vs Oklahoma State: +7.7 Passing EqPts
vs Texas: +2.6 Passing EqPts

That's an addition of 12.3 EqPts, or almost two touchdowns. Who knows if the timing of those points would have changed the outcome of either the NU or OSU games, but that's not the point of this exercise. Taking some super-rough estimates into account, here's a guess at what Gabbert might have produced in the 95 Injured Blaine passes if healthy:

58-for-95 passing, 810 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT

Which means we'd be looking at a season line of this:

Blaine Gabbert, New 2009
Stats: 240-for-373 passing, 3,307 yards, 24 TD, 4 INT
Rates: 64.3% completion rate, 8.9 yards per pass, 6.4% TD rate, 1.1% INT rate

And this doesn't even take into account that he barely played in the second half of the Texas game.

Just as means of comparison...

Chase Daniel, 2006
Stats: 287-for-452, 3,527 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT
Rates: 63.5% completion rate, 7.8 yards per pass, 6.2% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate

Gabbert would be slightly better across the board. You would expect him to have better yards per pass figures just because of his strong arm, but better completion, TD, and INT rates? Yikes.

Now think about this: what would Danario Alexander's numbers look like right now with no Gimpy Blaine? Of the 16 extra completions and 298 extra yards, he'd have probably snagged about 7 and 125 of them, giving him about 99 catches for 1,536 yards. That would bump him from third to second in the country in receptions per game, and from third to first in the country in receiving yards per game.

(And he still wouldn't be a Biletnikoff finalist.)

Three Positives

Diminishing Returns. Iowa State's offense proved what I always say about the dink-and-dunk attack: you can get away with it for a while, but unless you're able to go deep, you can't get away with it forever. Darius Darks' end-of-first-half 38-yard touchdown catch was really the only deeper pass the Cyclones completed, and thanks to their lack of a deep threat, Mizzou was able to play closer to the line than normal and get away with it. Eventually, the yards and points dried up, as ISU managed just 105 yards and 7 points after halftime, and just 8 yards in the fourth quarter.

This is at least somewhat good news, as there is no doubt that KU will be utilizing as many short passes as they can get away with on Saturday. They tried it last year, and it eventually wore down Mizzou's defense since Mizzou's offense performed so terribly for most of the first half. If Mizzou's offense does its job and puts some points on the board early, it will be harder for KU to take shots downfield against a tired defense, and even though KU still has Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, if Mizzou stays fresh, they can defend KU's offense at least relatively well as the game progresses.
Dave Yost. Missouri still has some work to do to get Blaine Gabbert up into the Chase Daniel Department when it comes to performance on passing downs, but Mizzou's standard downs performance Saturday was simply fantastic, and some credit for that has to go to the puppet master in the press box, Dave Yost. He was crushed by Mizzou fans a few games ago for not knowing what plays to call to get an offense led by an injured quarterback to score points against some great defenses, but ... well, no offensive coordinator in the country would have engineered much in that situation. Yes, Mizzou could have tried to run the ball more, but it simply would not have made much of a difference. But if he gets crushed when Mizzou struggles, he deserves a ton of credit when Mizzou is operating smoothly, and without their #1 RB in the second half and their #2 WR all game, Mizzou's offense was the definition of smooth against Iowa State.
Jerrell Jackson. We all know what Danario Alexander can do, but Mizzou needed another weapon on Saturday to compensate for the loss of Jared Perry and to prevent Iowa State from quintuple-teaming Alexander, and Jackson stepped up, to the tune of 142 receiving yards (just 31 behind Alexander) and 12 rushing yards, his second straight game combining for over 100 yards. He is a tremendous athlete, and if he can get that whole "hands" thing under control, he could be a lovely weapon for Mizzou in 2010-11. But speaking of the hands...

Three Negatives

Jerrell Jackson. As I posted on Twitter during the game, I'm really developing quite the love-hate relationship with this guy. If not for his drops, we might have won the OSU game even with a gimpy Gabbert. And if not for his drops and fumble, ISU probably would not have led at halftime. But without his catches, Mizzou might not have caught up to ISU. Still, though, while Gabbert probably needs to do a better job of throwing into Jackson's body to avoid the possibility of a drop, Jackson needs to do whatever he can to become a more reliable receiving weapon this offseason--catching 1,000,000 of Gabbert's fastballs, getting contacts, whatever. He might be the default #1 WR next year, and if he can't consistently catch the ball ... well ... that's not good.
ISU's Passing Success Rate. For the game, ISU's passing success rate of 47.7% wasn't too great, but in the first half it was far too high. As I mentioned above, it's hard to make the dink-and-dunk work all game, but it was working a lot early on, even with Mizzou giving smaller cushions than normal. In Q1, ISU's passing success rate was 72.7% (8-for-11), and after misfiring on the first three passes of Q2, ISU finished the half on a 55.6% clip (5-for-9). As we know, that resulted in 17 points, and then the spigot went dry. However, against KU, a rate like that might result in about 21-24 points, so even though this ended up a positive for MU, it's a reason to be at least slightly nervous about what KU might do.
Kickoff Coverage. Here are ISU's starting field positions following Mizzou kickoffs:

ISU 27, ISU 46, ISU 36, ISU 31, ISU 32, ISU 20, ISU 34

Seven kickoffs with only one stop inside the 25 yard line. Five of seven times, ISU started past the 30. And ISU is only an average kick-returning team. Kansas, meanwhile, has Dez Briscoe. There is no question that Gary Pinkel and staff have figured things out in terms of the best way to coach kicking and punting...and, for that matter, punt coverage has been pretty good recently too. But there's something about kickoffs that is harder to coach, and Mizzou has not been a very good coverage team any time recently. In the six years of data recorded at CFB Stats, Mizzou has ranked 87th (2009), 94th (2008), 53rd (2007), 73rd (2006), 103rd (2005), and 91st (2004) in opponents' kick returns. Ouch. And that's just the returns, that doesn't even take into account the overall good starting field position when Mizzou has to pooch it to avoid a big return.

Anyway, of all my concerns for KU, the two biggest ones are KU's dink-and-dunk ability and their likely fantastic starting field position, and the ISU game only highlighted both of these concerns.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Mizzou was +3 points in the turnover game, and they won by 10. One more strip by Iowa State, and it could have turned the game.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Mizzou advanced inside ISU's 35 five times and came away with 20 points -- two touchdowns, two field goals, and a turnover on downs. Meanwhile, ISU advanced inside Mizzou's 35 four times and came away with 17 points -- two touchdowns (both on trick plays), a field goal and a turnover on downs. In other words, this was just about a wash. Mizzou's two long touchdowns trumped ISU's one, and that made the difference in the game.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not.

Consider this one a FAIL in Q1, a slight fail in Q2, a wash in Q3, and a WIN in Q4. Like I said, Mizzou might not want to wait as long to really play the short passes well this Saturday, but in all this was still an overall net win for Mizzou.

Summary

Despite the fact that their own mistakes allowed for a little more adversity than you'd like to see (particularly the late-Q2 fumble and some first-half issues defending the short pass), you always like seeing your team overcome adversity, and for the second game in a row, Mizzou dominated the second half. They sent Sean Weatherspoon and Danario Alexander out as winners, and their young players (particularly #11) continued to show significant growth. One of the major goals for 2009 was just to not screw up our hopes for the future, and their late-game surges the last couple of weeks have assured that this goal was rather successful, no matter what happens from here on out (though it's obvious that optimism could be starkly diminished with a couple of losses to finish the season). In all, it was a lovely Saturday to watch a Mizzou win, and like the Mizzou team did immediately after the game, we now turn the page and look to Kansas.

Mizzou Links, 11-24-09

Bill C. — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:52:02 -0000

Via PowerMizzou

Media Day

MUtigers.com: Mizzou Meets the Press
PowerMizzou: PMTV: It's Kansas Week
PowerMizzou: Audio: Pinkel, Mangino talk Border War

BEAST MODE!!!

MUtigers.com: Mizzou, Nike Unveil "Beast Mode" Uniform
PowerMizzou: Tigers unveil new uniforms
KC Star: The Blue and the Gray of New Mizzou Unis
The Missourian: Missouri football team set to make fashion statement vs. KU

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-ISU

Bill C. — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:00:13 -0000

As always, Bill Carter comes through. Here, we've got some nice candid shots from the post-game hill trip, and a lovely sequence from Jerrell Jackson's long touchdown. After the jump: more goodies.

Mizzou Links, The Morning After

Bill C. — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:00:22 -0000

Photo via Bill Carter. Full gallery coming later in the day.

Mizzou beats Iowa State

Clone Chronicles: Week 12: Missouri 34, ISU 24
The Trib: MU blasts away in second half, tops Cyclones in home finale
The Trib: Tigers on verge of satisfying season
The Trib: Receiver finally catches on
The Trib: FOUR QUESTIONS
The Missourian: Long drive pushes Missouri past Iowa State
The Missourian: Missouri's Senior Day an emotional time for Weatherspoon family
The Missourian: Rolandis Woodland provides glimpse of Missouri's young talent
KC Star: MU storms to victory over Iowa State
KC Star: Danario Alexander stars in Missouri's 34-24 win over Iowa State
KC Star: MU-Iowa State game report
KC Star: MU notebook
KC Star (Upon Further Review): Big 12 Bowl Analysis
Post-Dispatch: MU wins one for seniors
Post-Dispatch (Bryan Burwell): MU youth show promise
[Jerrell] Jackson is the answer to Pinkel's offensive prayers, the dangerous compliment to Alexander. Think of him as Matt Holliday to Alexander's Albert Pujols. Jackson is emerging as the receiver who can line up either next to Alexander or on the opposite side of the field and force defenses to pick their poison.

"As he continues to mature, you see how good he's going to be," said Pinkel, who has spent the last month or so challenging him to raise his game to this level and become the next link in the receiving superstar chain that began with Maclin and has moved on to Alexander. "Even after last week's game in the locker room I said 'You can do better.' I don't know if he wanted to hear that ..."
He can do much better. He can not drop or fumble passes. Start to remedy that, and he's a helluva player.

Post-Dispatch: Blaine Gabbert shines vs. Iowa State
PowerMizzou: Second-half send off
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Lucky #7
PowerMizzou: PMTV: From the Interview Room
PowerMizzou: Sunday Grade Card
Des Moines Register: Tigers rally past 6-win Cyclones
Des Moines Register: Cyclones confident of bowl berth after loss
Des Moines Register: One bowl scenario would pit ISU against Chizik's Auburn
Ames Tribune: MU beats ISU 34-24
Ames Tribune: Playing the waiting game
Ames Tribune: A guide to ISU's bowl possibilities
Ames Tribune: Lineman Scott Haughton scores on trick play
Palestra.net: Mizzou Seniors Leave Home Triumphantly

Galleries

Big 12 Links

Nebraska 17, Kansas State 3
ESPN.com: Nebraska earns spot in Big 12 conference championship game
Corn Nation: Nebraska Ends Kansas State's Season and Wins the Big 12 North
Double Extra Point: Sunday Morning Quarterback
Texas 51, Kansas 20
ESPN.com: Colt McCoy sets NCAA record with 43rd career win as Texas claims title
Burnt Orange Nation: Postgame React: Texas buries Kansas 51-20, Improves to 11-0
Austin American-Statesman: From tiny town to big hero for UT quarterback
Austin American-Statesman: James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams complement Jordan Shipley
KC Star: Kansas shows some fight, but not enough, in loss to Texas
Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma 13
ESPN.com: Texas Tech earns most lopsided win over Oklahoma
Double-T Nation: Post-Game Thoughts :: Oklahoma Sooners Edition
Crimson and Cream Machine: Absolutely Pathetic
Dr. Saturday: Raiders knock staggering Sooners' rebound hopes out for the count
Daily Oklahoman: OU suffers worst loss since 2005
Daily Oklahoman (Barry Tramel): Sooners have to be red-faced over loss to Texas Tech
Tulsa World: Will role as Cowboys' spoiler be OU's spark?
Tulsa World: Passing the blame around
Texas A&M 38, Baylor 3
ESPN.com: A&M bowl eligible with bashing of Baylor
Oklahoma State 31, Colorado 28
ESPN.com: OSU clips Colorado
Tulsa World: QB injury a bruise; 50-50 for Bedlam

BASKETBALL!!

The Trib (Steve Walentik): What to watch for: Texas-Pan American
The Trib: Summer work pays for Bowers
KC Star: Big Steve steps up for Mizzou after slimming down

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

SB Nation - Jerrell Jackson

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Targets and Catches (Part One)

2006

2007

2008

2009

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Kansas(39)

Mizzou(41)

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-KU

The Morning After: Links

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score

Iowa St.(24)

Mizzou(34)

Healthy Blaine vs Gimpy Blaine

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou Links, 11-24-09

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-ISU

Mizzou Links, The Morning After

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Kansas
(39)

Mizzou
(41)

Iowa St.
(24)

Mizzou
(34)