SB Nation - Zavier Gooden

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-ISU

Bill C. — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:00:13 -0000

As always, Bill Carter comes through. Here, we've got some nice candid shots from the post-game hill trip, and a lovely sequence from Jerrell Jackson's long touchdown. After the jump: more goodies.

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: Mizzou-KSU

Bill C. — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 17:42:17 -0000

I'm not going to lie: I think this is Bill Carter's best photo gallery yet. Wow. And I'm not thinking that simply because we won one for once...

Mizzou Links, 8-10-09

Bill C. — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:39:23 -0000

As will be the Monday custom from here until the end of football season, we've got ourselves a freaking boatload of links for Monday morning...

Saturday Practice Reports

Dave Matter: Saturday Practice Report
PowerMizzou: Saturday Practice Report
Mutigers.com: Tigers Add Pop to Practice
PowerMizzou: Saturday Scenes
The Trib: Raw Video: T.J. Moe

And thanks to the Trib, there's some video too...

Gary Pinkel, Aug. 8 from Dave Matter on Vimeo.

More Trib video: MU DT Dominique Hamilton

Spring Football Post-Mortem: The Defense

Bill C. — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Defensive Line

Yeah, it didn't take me long to fall in love with Aldon Smith, who was the most disruptive, and vocal, defensive end I saw. He, Jacquies Smith, and God Coulter all pass the eyeball test and didn't really ever find themselves out of position. It was what I hoped to see, and I saw it. Plus, it's fun having two badass DEs (J. Smith, Coulter) wearing single digits. Don't ask me why.

I watched Brad Madison and Marcus Malbrough quite a bit, and at the very least they seemed competent, though they didn't make a lot of noise. The star of the line really was #85, A. Smith. He sacked Gabbert in the redzone and unleashed a primal yell that could be heard at the Med School.

As for the defensive tackles, I was quickly reminded of how good Jaron Baston can be. He's a fun combination of smart and crazy, and I really like him as the anchor of the line. The only other DT I noticed was Dominique Hamilton, who despite having 0 tackles made a couple of nice plays beyond the almost-INT (which I'm convinced he dropped just because he didn't want to have to run the 70-80 yards of open field that were in front of him had he held on). Terrell Resonno really didn't make any noise, but that's not always necessarily a bad thing from a DT, I guess.

Linebackers

I love this unit. A lot. Maybe not as much as rptgwb, but a lot. There's really nothing more to say about Sean Weatherspoon, so I won't say anything--you know what you're getting from him. Beyond that, though, Andrew Gachkar and Luke Lambert both looked excellent--both fast and smart--and you know how much we at RMN love us some Will Ebner, who may not even get much playing time this year due to how good GACK and Lambert look. This is a strong, punishing unit of LBs, and it will absolutely be a strength of this defense. This unit replicates the personality of its defensive coordinator.

Also, as rptgwb mentioned Saturday evening, Mizzou rarely went to a nickel package because GACK seemed more than capable of lining up against a TE or slot WR. If you can get away with base 4-3 in passing situations, you can disguise what you're doing a lot more. Says me, anyway.

Defensive Backs

I really wanted to see something good out of the DBs, and I think I got my wish. At cornerback, Carl Gettis did what he always seems to do (2008 KU and NW'ern games aside)--blend into the woodwork, do nothing to get noticed, and prevent the QB from even thinking about throwing to the guy he's covering. Meanwhile, both Kevin Rutland and Kip Edwards looked awesome. Loved what I saw from them. Trey Hobson looked decent, as well. I didn't really notice anything from Munir Prince or Robert Steeples.

At safety, yeah...if not for Gettis, Kenji Jackson would be getting most of my mancrush attention. Mizzou safeties like Jason Simpson, David Overstreet, and William Moore showed a trend of looking lost their freshman years, looking decent their sophomore years, and breaking through in their junior years (and, ahem, having disappointing senior seasons). Kenji already looks like a breakout junior, only he's a true sophomore. He deserves to wear #13, as he plays EXACTLY like Pig Brown, laying back and punishing anybody who offends him by thinking about catching a ball in his neighborhood.

Beyond Jackson, if there was one thing I was disappointed about in this scrimmage, it was that the offense never really tried to attack Hardy Ricks. You know from previous posts that I don't trust him at all, and I really wanted to see him being challenged. As it was, nothing really happened in his neighborhood. He didn't do anything wrong, persay, but he also only had 0.5 tackles. Jerrell Harrison, meanwhile, looked pretty decent, but nothing really happened in his area either. If anybody looked impressive beyond KJ13, it was Mr. Zaviar Gooden, who is as physically impressive as a safety will ever be. Dude can hit. Shawn Scott made the mistake of trying to bounce a run outside, and he was not only caught, but rudely and effortlessly thrown down by Gooden.

Special Teams

We witnessed the creation of a new RMN legend/nickname on Saturday. At halftime we learned Mizzou coaches don't call this unit "Special Teams," but "Special Forces." After joking about Grant Ressel spending his offseason sniping pirates in the ocean, we set about giving everybody in this unit official titles. And then ZouDave unleashed this stream of consciousness: "So does that mean Admiral Wolfert is being replaced by Sergeant Mills? Corporal Mills? General Mi...GENERAL MILLS!!! YES!!!!"

From this point forward, Tanner Mills will heretofore be called General Mills.

With that out of the way, I can confirm that General Mills does indeed have a freaking cannon for a leg. He boomed the first kickoff of the scrimmage about six yards deep in the endzone, and the kickoffs that didn't reach the endzone hung in the air a long time. That will be a special teams strength.

As for place-kicking, Mills and all the kickers were fine. Not great, not terrible, just fine. Mills was only 2-for-4, but the ball looks good coming off his foot, and while he may not be Jeff Wolfert, he won't be Joe Tantarelli either. (Sorry, Joey Tants.) The other two kickers--Gunnysergeant Trey Barrow and Corporal Ressel--looked fine too, with Ressel looking to have at least a smidge more leg strength.

To punting, where all I can say is, Captain Jake Harry looked like crap last spring too. He was, I guess, in mid-spring form on Saturday, and I'm just going to close my eyes and convince myself that when the games are real, he'll be ready. Moving on...

...to returns, where I can confirm (shocker) that none of the potential kicker returners are in fact Jeremy Maclin. Carl Gettis (punt) and Munir Prince (kickoff) both had trouble fielding the ball, and from what I've seen and read previously, it wouldn't surprise me if the September starters were Gahn McGaffie (punt) and Kip Edwards (kickoff). No idea on their return skills, as it was basically just kicker/punter vs returner out there.

(One of these years, a kicker will fulfill my wish and attempt an onside kick against air...and celebrate upon recovery. One of these days.)

Conclusion

I'll say this much for the 2009 Missouri defense: there will not be a harder-hitting unit in the Big 12 North. This was a strength of last year's defense, and with the addition of guys like Aldon Smith, Gachkar, Ebner, and a matured version of Kenji Jackson (plus guys like Gooden waiting in the wings), it's only going to become a more pronounced strength in 2009. This unit is high on attitude and personality (at one point, Jaron Baston was dancing to the music in his head late in Saturday's scrimmage, forever earning my affection), and hopefully it will be high on production as well.

You never know how smart or consistent a defense is going to be until they play against opponents they haven't been practicing against non-stop, but I'm optimistic that despite the lost starters, this defense will play to at least the level of last year's defense, and as you may remember, last year's defense may not have been as bad as you thought.

Spring Football Update: The Secondary

Bill C. — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 14:00:13 -0000

The switch has been flipped from basketball to football, and I figure the best way to dip our toes back in the water is to revisit my 2009 Walkthrough series from January and see what has or hasn't changed since then. We move now to 2008's most maligned unit, the secondary (CBs, safeties).

Cornerbacks

Carl Gettis photo by PowerMizzou's Dan Turner

I'll be honest--I have no idea what to make of Kevin Rutland. He doesn't seem as fast or physical as Trey Hobson, but he was above Hobson on the depth chart most of the year. I don't know if it was just that Hobson was sporadic in practice or what, but I'll feel a lot less worried about this unit if Hobson emerges over Rutland.

...

Mizzou's pass defense is based on a "read and react" type of mindset, which works if you've got guys who can react really quickly. That alone dissuades the use of under-classmen who aren't quite up to speed in the mental department yet, but if guys like Hobson, Steeples or Edwards are ready for prime time, this defense just got a lot faster and, possibly, a lot better. This unit will be very interesting to watch in March and April.

What's changed? Kevin Rutland has apparently become very good at reading and reacting. The junior-to-be has gotten solid reviews from both Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond for makng a nice play on a ball and getting a pick about once a practice, and it appears he's grabbed a decent hold of the starting CB job opposite Carl Gettis. When Gettis moves to the nickelback position, Hobson moves in at CB, suggesting he's a definite #3.

It seems pretty common for defensive backs in Mizzou's system to make a pretty nice-sized jump between sophomore and junior seasons--think David Overstreet, or Jason Simpson, or William Moore. Granted, those examples are all safeties, but I guess it's not out of the realm of possibility that things have clicked for Rutland, and he's going to be a rock-solid CB. I hope so--lord knows I've read enough about his athletic ability in the last couple of years to think he could be pretty good if he put the mental side together.

Even though I'd maybe like to see a bit more of a tight competition between Rutland, Hobson, Munir Prince and the redshirt freshmen (who are apparently playing like redshirt freshmen and stuck on 3rd string), if Rutland is that much better than them, then fine. I do like the thought of a super-physical set of CBs, and the presence of Gettis and Hobson, and to a lesser extent Rutland, suggests that this could be a pretty smart, aggressive, punishing unit, and that's certainly not a bad thing. Again, Dave Steckel's more physical mindset at defensive coordinator might be a good fit here.

Expected Spring Finish

1. Carl Gettis (Jr)
2. Kevin Rutland (Jr)
3. Trey Hosbon (So)
4. Munir Prince (Jr)
5. Robert Steeples (RSFr)
6. Kip Edwards (RSFr)

Once again, not a senior in the mix.

Safeties

Jerrell Harrison photo by PowerMizzou's Dan Turner

Even when [Hardy] Ricks was starting at CB, he seemed to play more like a safety. His coverage skills aren't impressive, but he's big and physical, he closes fast and hits hard. I was excited about the prospect of RIcks as strong safety, but...it just hasn't really taken yet. Any view of Ricks in 2008 was of Ricks chasing down some free-roaming receiver, trying to prevent a big play from turning into a really big play. It wasn't an encouraging display. Maybe everything clicks in his senior year, but as with Kevin Rutland at CB, I'll feel a little more encouraged if a younger player with more (you guessed it) upside overtakes him.

What's changed? Well, nobody's taken the strong safety job from Ricks yet. I hate sounding like I'm bagging on certain players, especially Ricks, who can make quite a few hits and nice, athletic plays if he's on the field long enough. Again, though, he just doesn't quite seem to have the cover skills or ball-reading skills I want from a SS, and I'm still hoping that Jarrell Harrison or Zaviar Gooden is able to overtake him when all is said and done. We'll see what happens. Harrison hasn't been around a lot, but just getting here for spring practices was a nice victory for him, and if he continues to get his footing through the rest of spring and into summer, there could be a pretty good battle in August.

What we do know for sure, though, is that reports on Kenji Jackson are thus far exactly what I was hoping to read. Like Sean Weatherspoon in 2007, it appears he's turned into a pretty solid unit leader despite being just a sophomore-to-be. He doesn't come in a William Moore-sized package--he's only about 5'10, 200 instead of 6'1, 225--but he's a playmaker, and if he continues to improve and lead this defense, I'll forgive him for not convincing his buddy Stepfan Taylor to sign with Mizzou (kidding, sort of...loved that kid's video).

Expected Spring Finish

1. Kenji Jackson (So)
2. Hardy Ricks (Sr)
3. Jarrell Harrison (Jr)
4. Zaviar Gooden (RSFr)
5. Del Howard (Sr)

It would make sense that, after 2009, at least one of the listed cornerbacks ends up making the move to safety to even out the two lists (though I guess some of that will depend if incoming freshman Donavan Bonner is able to keep the weight down enough to play safety, or if he ends up at linebacker...oh yeah, and if he's good enough to crack the two-deep this time next year). Either way, only two of the 11 guys listed above are seniors, and neither of them may be starting by the end of 2009.

(My "We could be really good in 2010-11" hints are getting less and less subtle.)

DEPTH CHART!!!!!

Bill C. — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 17:36:34 -0000

Feel it? Feel those chills? Spring Practice is officially upon us with the first depth chart of March.

Here are some quick thoughts...and lord knows I'm not going to spend too many brain cells on this, as it means nothing and all the newbies are listed below the walk-ons...

No Beau Brinkley anywhere on here. Don't know if that means that he's not around anymore, or if he's not even pretending to be anything other than a long-snapper (and there are no long snappers here)...just noticed it.
Actually, I just answered my own question. He's on the spring roster, so there you go.
New best name: Mukai Matsiga.
I'm not sure I knew La'Roderick Thomas was hurt.
Brian Coulter is apparently injured for the spring, but that's fine...I want to see as much of Aldon Smith as I possibly can.
George White: still 250 pounds after a redshirt season. Not optimistic about his future. Pretty hard to make it as a 250-pound DT in 2009...maybe 1979, but not 2009...
I think I'm going to really like our LBs this year. 'Spoon, Lambert and Gachkar make a pretty good starting three even if Ebner and Tatum don't make strides...and if they do make strides, look out...
Is it bad that I got a slight sense of dread when I saw Hardy Ricks' name atop the Strong Safety list? I really want to see Zaviar Gooden, or Jarrell Harrison, or Jasper Simmons at the top of that list at the end of August.
LOTS of names battling for a starting corner spot...going to be fun to watch the battle.

A 2009 Walkthrough: Safeties

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 16:00:08 -0000

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Line
Defensive Ends
Defensive Tackles
Linebackers
Cornerbacks

While there is more experience at safety than cornerbacks, I'm actually a bit more concerned about this unit. There was more experience here last year too, yet on first glance it seemed most of the communication breakdowns in the secondary could be pinned more on the safeties than CBs. Will that improve in 2009? Let's see.

Returnees

Kenji Jackson (5'10, 200, Sophomore)
2008: 62 tackles, 2 INT, 1 FF, 1 PBR

The last of 11 freshmen to have his redshirt torn off in 2008, Kenji (pronounced KEN-juh...I think) Jackson ended up possibly contributing the most, offering an ounce of stability to an increasingly volatile unit. Despite his inexperience, Jackson seemed less likely than Justin Garrett, Hardy Ricks, or Del Howard to miss tackles or be caught out of position. Plus, he's likeable. He seems like a great kid, he doesn't showboat, he's aware of what's going on, he dances in Wal Marts...what's not to like?

The main question remaining for Kenji is upside. How much of it does he have? There were a couple of times where he was just a step away from stopping a big play or, in the case of one of Northwestern's touchdowns in the Alamo Bowl, he jumped just a hair too early to prevent a reception. He wasn't perfect, but what we don't know is how much of his flaws were due to inexperience and how much were due to needing just a bit more athleticism or talent. The former is very fixable; the latter...not so much.

Even if he's already close to maxing out his upside and potential, Kenji is going to be a smart, strong, stabilizing force in the secondary for years to come, and even if he's closer to Harold Piersey than William Moore in the athleticism department, I like the thought of him lining up as the last line of defense for the next three years.

Hardy Ricks (6'0, 190, Senior)
2008: 39 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 QBH
2007: 21 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PBR
2006: 40 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PBR

Hmm...which of the disappointing seniors should we go with first? We'll start with Hardy Ricks, who has tanatlized Mizzou fans over the years with random great hits and great plays, followed by long disappearances. Ricks played quite a bit as a freshman in 2006's relatively volatile secondary and began the 2007 season starting at CB opposite Darnell Terrell. He is best remembered for sticking Juice Williams in the '07 Illinois game and knocking him out of the game, which indirectly led to a dramatic Illinois near-comeback as Eddie McGee entered the game and got the offense going. Ricks got injured himself early in '07, lost his starting position to Carl Gettis, and ended up moving to safety.

Even when Ricks was starting at CB, he seemed to play more like a safety. His coverage skills aren't impressive, but he's big and physical, he closes fast and hits hard. I was excited about the prospect of RIcks as strong safety, but...it just hasn't really taken yet. Any view of Ricks in 2008 was of Ricks chasing down some free-roaming receiver, trying to prevent a big play from turning into a really big play. It wasn't an encouraging display. Maybe everything clicks in his senior year, but as with Kevin Rutland at CB, I'll feel a little more encouraged if a younger player with more (you guessed it) upside overtakes him.

Del Howard (5'11, 200, Senior)
2008: 41 tackles, 1 PBR
2007: 32 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PBR
2006: 9 tackles, 2 INT, 1 TFL

Speaking of tantalizing...Howard began his career by picking off two passes early in his true freshman year at CB. In the 2.5 seasons since then, he has...zero picks. Howard moved to safety as a sophomore and ended up part of the legendary Deltin Garward (Del Howard + Justin Garrett) combination charged with replacing Pig Brown after Piggie was lost for the season.

A meaner way to put that would be, "He was part of the defense's weakest link in 2007 (and 2008)," but I won't put it that way.

Honestly, while I always thought Ricks would make a better safety than corner back, I've never been completely sure why Howard was moved to safety. I assume the coaches know more about a player's everyday strengths and weaknesses than I do, but to me he's always seemed better at reading a WR's intentions than a QB's eyes, if that makes sense. Maybe it's because of the tiny, successful 2006 sample size, but he seems capable of mixing it up one-on-one, but he's always a step too slow in the Cover 2. Either way, at this stage as a senior, he's in the same boat as Ricks--he has some skills to offer, but I'll be much happier if somebody else is starting at FS.

Gilbert Moye (6'2, 210, Sophomore)
2008: null

Quick impression: "A 4-star recruit from Texas? Who wants to play for Mizzou? Awesome! This guy could be the breakthrough we've been looking for with Texas kids!"

That was me, and a few hundred other Mizzou fans and recruiting nerds upon hearing that Gilbert Moye had committed to Mizzou in mid-December 2006. This guy was a huge cog in the 2007 recruting class.

He's also, apparently, a guy without a position. He was a quarterback in high school, but it was quickly clear that his future was on defense. The coaching staff even considered playing him as a true freshman in 2007. Only...to date, he's proven to be not quite athletic enough to play in the secondary, not quite big enough to play linebacker.

He's also been a trouble case from time to time, getting into a fight with his roommate during his redshirt year and getting suspended for the Alamo Bowl this past December. I never want to predict who might or might not be a transfer possibility because I'm not an insider, I rarely get the full story on incidents (nor should I get them), and it's not fair to speculate about that sort of thing. But if I were to speculate on such a thing, I'd have to lean toward this guy as a potential transfer risk.

That said, he was only a redshirt freshman in 2008. If he does stay, he's got three years to figure things out and find a position, and I really hope he does just that. Lord knows that with this secondary, the opportunity is there if he figures things out (and gets a step faster).

Redshirts

Zaviar Gooden (6'2, 210, RSFr)

If Mizzou had played 11 true freshmen instead of 10, Zaviar Gooden would have probably been #11. He was part of a super-athletic bunch of DB redshirts, and while we have yet to see for sure whether he'll end up a big safety or move to linebacker, reporters and coaches have had many good things to say about this kid. Honestly, I'm more optimistic about the linebackers, so I hope he's fast enough to stay at safety. He has the highest (stop me, please) upside of anybody in the corps of safeties, and I would love it if he were to thrive here. But it's all hearsay with Gooden for now--we'll see what he actually has to offer in the spring.

Incoming

Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 210, City College of San Francisco)

Joshua Tatum's JUCO teammate, Harrison, who has already signed and will be in Columbia for spring practice, flew under the radar and after signing with UNLV out of high school, he ended up with offers from N.C. State and both Arizona schools before landing with Mizzou.

Harrison's JUCO film (below) shows a guy who hits hard and puts himself in the right position...but you never want to speculate much on high school or JUCO film. Until they do it at the D1 level, you never know for sure what they can do. Either way, Harrison will have every opportunity to step right in and start for Mizzou--lord knows nobody else has called dibs on the starting FS job just yet.

Jasper Simmons (6'1, 210, Hutchinson JUCO)

Another 3-star JUCO recruit, Simmons has been committed to Mizzou long enough that people have forgotten about him a little bit. A Pensacola, FL, product, Simmons' stats show a guy with potential to be a strong, stabilizing force. He breaks up passes, doesn't miss many tackles, and could see the field pretty quickly in 2009. I don't believe he'll be in for the spring, but I could be wrong about that.

T.J. Moe (6'0, 180, St. Louis)

I mentioned him at CB yesterday, but I think his future is at safety. As I mentioned yesterday, this dude is exciting. He has great footwork, speed, and body control, and the only question is whether he grasps all the nooks and crannies of the safety position quickly enough to play as a true freshman.

Potential Incoming

Donavan Bonner (6'2, 225, Dallas, TX)

Gabe at PowerMizzou is very confident that Bonner is about to become a Mizzou commit. Dude's huge for a safety, and I have to imagine the odds are good that he ends up at linebacker, but he's listed as a safety for now, so he's on this list. Bonner is a current Colorado State commit, and he will be one candidate in the annual "Who's Mizzou's best Texas diamond in the rough?" race. It appears that Kansas State has entered the race for his services, but Mizzou seems (so far) to have the edge.

Joseph Bonugli (5'11, 190, San Antonio, TX)

A new name to surface on the recruiting trail, Bonugli might be visiting Columbia in the next couple of weeks. It's unclear if Rivals' #90 player in the state of Texas has an offer from Mizzou or not--I don't think he does--but clearly the staff is considering him, and clearly Bonugli is considering Mizzou.

2008 vs 2009

William Moore was one of the best (if not the best) safeties we'll ever see at Mizzou, but he was less of a factor in 2008 than 2007, and Mizzou never could find a valuable counterpart for him. Kenji Jackson emerged late in '08, but with Moore playing as much as a third linebacker as a second safety, there was still another safety on the field most times--be it Justin Garrett, Ricks, Howard, whoever--and the search for a playmaker went on and on without success. More candidates enter the fold in 2009, and that can't be a bad thing. If Gooden is ready to step up as a redshirt freshman, or if everything clicks for Moye, or if Harrison or Simmons is ready to roll from Day One, this unit could improve despite the loss of Willy Mo. If not...then, well, Mizzou should have enough offensive potential to outscore guys, right?

2009 Mizzou DBs on the YouTubes

Kenji Jackson in high school...

Kenji stops a fake punt

Gilbert Moye in August 2007

Jarrell Harrison

Poll

Who starts at safety opposite Kenji Jackson in 2009?

Hardy Ricks

7 votes

Del Howard

7 votes

Gilbert Moye

6 votes

Zaviar Gooden

14 votes

Jarrell Harrison

22 votes

Jasper Simmons

9 votes

Other

1 votes

66 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 13:00:05 -0000

We're going to set up projections the same way we did for Illinois (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), only to get enough of a sample size, I'm not going with SEMO, but with "FCS Tier 6", the estimated amalgamation of the worst FCS teams to play D1 opponents in 2007. (I've explained this before, but basically I combined the 1-AA/FCS teams into six tiers and grouped their stats together thusly.)

So without further adieu...

Mizzou-SEMO Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 19.77
Projection #1: 35.34
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts+: 50.18
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 32.30

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 33.82

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 17.32
Projection #1: 25.90
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts+: 45.11
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 40.79

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 33.35

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

SEMO Rushing

FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts+: 47.00
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 3.90
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.57
Projection #2: 4.98

Projected SEMO Rushing Output: 4.44

Adjusted for 2008: 2.50 (I liked what I saw against Illinois)

SEMO Passing

FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts+: 38.82
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 4.71
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 4.44
Projection #2: 3.15

Projected SEMO Passing Output: 3.93

Adjusted for 2008: 4.50 (are the troubles with Mizzou's Passing D enough to accidentally give up a long pass to SEMO at some point?)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 56.0, SEMO 7.0

Special Teams

SEMO's special teams unit actually isn't that bad. Doug Spada is a stud punter--he averaged 42.6 yards per punt last year and uncorked a 47.6 yard average over 5 punts last weekend against SW Baptist (including two inside the 20). He's an average kicker--he went 2-for-4 on FGs last weekend, including misses from 34 and 35, but made a 47-yarder--and only averages about 59 yards on kickoffs, but let's be honest: he's going to be punting a lot more than he's kicking off or booting FGs, so this plays to his strengths. Their return game is nothing amazing, but it's also nothing terrible.

Unfortunately for SEMO, a) Mizzou just shut down a much better return game than SEMO has to offer, b) SEMO's never tried to tackle Jeremy Maclin before, and c) we've got Jeff Wolfert, and they don't. Special teams should be worth at least another 3-7 points on the scoreboard.

FCS Tier 6 Teams: Top '+' Rankings

Before I get to the "key players" for each team (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), I wanted to look at something. It doesn't take a genius to realize that "FCS Tier 6" probably averaged at or very near the bottom in most categories, '+' rankings and otherwise. However, my '+' rankings tend to show that, well, everybody's decent at something. So let's look at where "FCS Tier 6" ranked the highest.

#31: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#53: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#58: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#62: Offensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#67: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#72: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#77: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#80: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#81: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#85: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Now, the Q4 numbers are easy enough to understand--chances are, the other team's scrubs are in by that point. That might even explain the three Q2 categories. But the Defensive Line Yards phenomenon is rather interesting. Eight of the 10 categories have to do with rush defense in some way, and I don't completely have an explanation for that. In fact, let's just move on...

Key Players for SEMO

QB Houston Lillard

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's going to come from Lillard. He was a very impressive 27-39 for 387 yards and 3 TDs against SW Baptist last week and won the Ohio Valley's Offensive Player of the Week award, and even though that was against NAIA competition, that at least shows that he can throw, right? Of course, it would help if he had preseason All-OVC RB Timmy Holloman in the backfield with him, but Holloman was ruled ineligible for the first five games of '08. And backups Mike Jones and Jacob McKinley didn't exactly light SW Baptist ablaze.

WR Miles Edwards

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's probably going to be caught by Edwards, who had 204 yards and 2 TDs (including an 80-yarder) against SW Baptist. He was SEMO's leading WR last year too, with 480 yards and 7 TDs.

LB Jared Goodson

He's SEMO's most highly-touted defensive player, a preseason All-OVC selection, though he only had 3 assisted tackles against SW Baptist. So maybe I'll go with senior LB Nick Stauffer instead--he had 10 solo and 6 assisted tackles, plus a fumble recovery. Either way, I'll be honest--I expect nothing from him this week.

CB Eddie Calvin

The junior Rockwood Summit alum had a career day last week, registering 3 first-half INTs. Lord knows he'll get to find out just how good he really is this week. If he comes up with 3 more against Chase Daniel, he probably has a future in the NFL awaiting him.

Key Players for Mizzou

WR Jeremy Maclin

He needs to have a big play in the first quarter so they have no qualms about taking him out as soon as possible. I want to see lots of Jerrell Jackson, Michael Egnew and Wes Kemp.

QB Chase Patton

He needs to be 100% healthy so that we don't even think about tearing off Blaine Gabbert's redshirt.

CBs Castine Bridges, Kevin Rutland, Tremane Vaughns, Trey Hobson, and whoever else plays opposite Carl Gettis

This one should go without saying. Does Mizzou really have a weakness at #2 CB, or was the Illinois game a giant outlier? Somebody here needs to step up, and I guess it'll probably be Bridges.

Ss Justin Garrett and Del Howard (the return of Deltin Garward!)

I put Garrett on the spot last week, and his performance wasn't overly encouraging. If Garrett and/or Howard are the cause of another deep-ball breakdown this week, I'll officially become the fan of the Hardy Ricks Fan Club...and maybe the Zaviar Gooden Fan Club too.

Summary

Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt.

Missouri 59, SEMO 7*

(In these types of games, there's absolutely no idea to predict the score. Who knows when Pinkel will call off the dogs, and how many points the backups for both teams may score? Mizzou should end up with between 49-63 and SEMO 0-14. But all I know is...SEMO's really, really not good, and we may accidentally score 60.)