SB Nation - Grant Ressel

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm not going to lie. As Mizzou-Kansas ended early Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was that I was going to need help from the BTBS numbers to make sense of everything I just saw. In a game that featured over 1,100 yards of offense, Mizzou's defense made the plays in the last five minutes that won the game. In a game where Danario Alexander and Dezmon Briscoe combined for 29 catches and 475 yards (seriously), it was Andrew Gachkar, Jake Harry, Brian Coulter/Aldon Smith, Derrick Washington and Grant Ressel making the breakthrough plays down the stretch. So many people did so many amazing things ... what do the numbers say about what took place?

The best receiver in the country

	Kansas (39)	Mizzou (41)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	46.6%	46.7%
Leverage %	65.8%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	31.9	33.3
Close Success Rate	50.7%	45.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.44
Close S&P	0.944	0.898

RUSHING
EqPts	5.7	18.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	51.5%
Close PPP	0.35	0.55
Close S&P	0.854	1.066
Line Yards/carry	3.15	3.53

PASSING
EqPts	26.3	15.2
Close Success Rate	50.9%	40.5%
Close PPP	0.46	0.36
Close S&P	0.969	0.766
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.8% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	56.3%	54.0%
PPP	0.36	0.42
S&P	0.927	0.960

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	40.0%	28.0%
PPP	0.58	0.50
S&P	0.977	0.775

TURNOVERS
Number	3	1
Turnover Pts	14.3	4.9
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.4	+9.4

Q1 S&P	1.103	0.952
Q2 S&P	0.976	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.730	1.779
Q4 S&P	0.949	0.456

1st Down S&P	0.838	0.803
2nd Down S&P	0.730	0.888
3rd Down S&P	1.529	1.116

Projected Pt. Margin	-10.8	+10.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

So many things here that I didn't expect to see:

Mizzou's offense was almost nonexistent in Q2 and Q4. Their passing numbers? Only decent, despite Danario Alexander's unbelievable third quarter (7 catches, 181 yards). And they still struggled on passing downs.
Both teams were only decent on 1st and 2nd down, but automatic on 3rd down. KU, especially, had Mizzou's defense on a string on 3rd down ... until their final two, in which Mizzou came up with two game-turning sacks.
Both teams were exactly the same from a Field Position and Leverage standpoint, despite KU starting three drives from inside their 3.
Unsung heroes: Mizzou's offensive line, which allowed one sack and plowed away for over three and a half line yards per carry.

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

I was on Big 12 North Talk Radio Sunday night and was asked about Mizzou's struggling pass defense, and I stammered through an answer about how you probably shouldn't take much away from a rivalry game (after all, Texas A&M gained 530 yards on a dominant Texas defense Thursday night), and how Mizzou's struggles have been caused by different things at different times (no pass rush and poor LB play against KU, poor tackling against Baylor, complete miscommunication against Texas, Carl Gettis' backup getting burned against NU, etc.), but despite that, there's no question that something has been amiss in recent weeks.

Here are Missouri's Passing S&P+ numbers in terms of individual game "+" scores (disregarding Furman). Remember, a) 100 = average, and b) the higher number, the better the performance.

Nevada (193.5)
Colorado (182.3)
Bowling Green (148.9)
Nebraska (109.6)
Oklahoma State (105.4)
Illinois (103.7)
Iowa State (95.6)
Kansas (84.0)
Kansas State (72.9)
Texas (66.8)
Baylor (59.4)

Over the first five games (not counting Furman), Missouri averaged a 132.2. Over the last six, Missouri has averaged a 93.5, and that's with the Colorado outlier. Missouri's five worst games this season all came in the last six weeks (and remember, this is adjusted for opponent, so even if the offenses Mizzou faced improved, that doesn't mean Mizzou's numbers should automatically fall). Meanwhile, Missouri's sack rate has actually improved over that time (from 1.0% on Standard Downs and 8.9% on Passing Downs, to 6.0% on Standard Downs and 9.9% on Passing Downs), actually giving the pass defense numbers a bit of a boost. Obviously the pass rush wasn't great against Kansas, but it's been decent down the stretch.

So what has changed in the last six weeks? For one thing, Carl Gettis got hurt. It was hinted in October and early-November that he hurt himself worse than anybody thought against Nebraska, but while his and Jasper Simmons' injuries absolutely played a role in the Baylor debacle, he's still seemed steady enough that his ankle alone can't explain a 29.2% drop in pass defense. What else has changed? Well, Hardy Ricks was lost for the season. I wouldn't have thought that would have made a difference, but maybe it did? Plus, opponents got film on Simmons and Jarrell Harrison and were probably better able to take advantage of whatever weaknesses they may have. And quite frankly, Kevin Rutland has been maddeningly inconsistent, matching nice pass break-ups with horrible mishaps.

Is there something else I'm missing here? It's not like the scheme has changed. Like it or not, the general philosophy of pass defense is simply not going to change as long as Gary Pinkel is in charge. We are going to run a basic Cover-2, and we're going to give receivers giant cushions and allow the short passes while hoping to tackle well, not get burned deep, and bend just long enough to force a mistake from the opponent. When and how we blitz may change, but in general, we defend the pass as we always have under Pinkel, and that's just the way it is. It's not like opponents suddenly figured out what we were doing and changed their approach halfway through the season. Anyway, I'm all ears. Let me know why you think things have regressed.

No matter what the cause, there's no question that, with opponent taken into account, this pass defense is not as good as in recent years. Whether you want to believe it or not, the opponent had as much to do with last year's regression in raw stats than anything else. Missouri ranked 26th in Defensive Passing S&P+ in 2008 and 17th in 2007, but they rank only 66th this season. Maybe this is just what we should have expected in losing three of four starters in the secondary (and a hit-or-miss pass rush hasn't helped). Or not.

But that's enough negativity. We did, after all, beat Kansas.

Three Positives

Always. Be. Closing. For 55 minutes, the 2008 and 2009 MU-KU games were strikingly similar. For the first half, KU's offense was strong and Mizzou made a series of mistakes, leading to a halftime deficit that could have been a lot worse than it actually was (19-10 in 2008, 21-13 in 2009). Then, Mizzou found their offensive rhythm in the third quarter and stormed back to take a fourth quarter lead (30-26 with 6:52 left in 2008, 36-28 with 13:29 left in 2009). But thanks to some combination of Reesing, Briscoe, and Kerry Meier, KU got the momentum back and, with roughly five minutes left, faced a third down in Mizzou territory.

Here's where things start to diverge. In 2008, Reesing completed a 31-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 to Marcus Herford, setting up a go-ahead TD pass to Meier (who forever earned the middle name of "Effing" after this game). Mizzou responded with a go-ahead drive of their own, but as we all know, Reesing and Meier connected again to win the game in the final minute. For the last five minutes, Reesing was 8-for-11 for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

For the last five and a half minutes on Saturday, Reesing was 0-for-3 passing with two "sacks" (the second one was considered a rush, not a sack) for a loss of 19 yards. After 55 game minutes of stress and momentum changes, KU faced a third-and-goal from Mizzou's 5, and there was absolutely no reason to think KU wouldn't convert. All game long, if Mizzou blitzed, they got burned; if they dropped into coverage, they eventually got burned. Todd Reesing was able to do whatever he wanted to do. But for the first time all game, Mizzou blitzed effectively. Kevin Rutland came at Reesing on a CB blitz, and while Reesing got away, Andrew Gachkar tracked him down and forced an intentional grounding penalty (and yes, it was a good call, as the pass landed about two yards short of the line of scrimmage). Then, nursing a three-point lead, KU now-notoriously attempted to pass out of their endzone and landed two incompletions before Reesing was sandwiched by Aldon Smith and Brian Coulter. He came within about two inches of getting out of the endzone, and those two inches gave Mizzou two points in a two-point win.

Those two inches took 2009 from a decent season to a good one. Coffee is for closers.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle. How freaking big and fast did Blaine Gabbert look in those first-half keepers?? He had a 30-yarder and a 40-yarder in the first half, and while his arm was scattering some inaccurate passes in the second quarter, his legs kept Mizzou in the game before Danario took over in Q3. This goes without saying, but it really is simply amazing how much different Gabbert looks now than he did about six weeks ago, and if Mizzou has any sort of steady receiving weapon in 2010 (Jerrell Jackson, you've got all the opportunity in the world to show what you can do), I cannot wait to see what #11 might be able to do if/when healthy for an entire season.
Domino Axelrod. Remember when Danario Alexander caught eight passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and was the primary reason Mizzou broke out to a 30-point first-half lead? Yeah, that was his eighth-best game of the season. His output from just the last three games (606 yards) would have led the team in receiving in 2005. His three 200-yard receiving games in November match Mizzou's all-time total of 200-yard receiving games before November. The list of Alexander's superlatives this year top anything Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, etc., ever managed ... and trust me, I know what I just said, and I mean it. As I said during the game, we are never going to see sustained WR play like this again, and we need to soak it in for all it's worth.

Three Negatives

Bad time for the linebackers' worst game of the year. I'm a forgiving soul, and I try to stay even-keeled as much as possible. I'm willing to accept that Todd Reesing was simply in a zone for much of the game, and no matter what Missouri did on defense -- blitz, drop everybody into coverage, etc. -- he was just going to make some plays, as was (obviously) Dez Briscoe. But there was one part of the defensive play that I found completely unacceptable, particularly in the first half: coverage of Jake Sharp (and later on, Rell Lewis) out of the backfield. For three years, Sharp has been a more dangerous receiver than runner, and it was no surprise that Reesing would check down to him whenever possible. And yet we left him wide open with run to room, over and over again. For the game, Sharp/Lewis had nine catches for 120 yards. Seven of Sharp's eight catches came in the first half, and four went for first downs, including an inexcusable 17-yard reception on 3rd-and-11 from KU's 1 that allowed KU to get momentum, eventually scoring a touchdown to cap off a 99-yard drive.

How did the dump to the RBs succeed in ways it hadn't in the previous two games at Arrowhead? Who was to blame for this? Again, I have more questions than answers, but in the Cover-2 structure, the main people responsible would appear to be the outside linebackers and the cornerbacks. Indeed, in previous seasons, it was Sean Weatherspoon and Van Alexander making most of the tackles or defending the pass to the RB. Maybe the strategy changed this year, or maybe the LBs were just overloaded with coverage responsibilities considering how long the coverage lasted (thanks to the lack of a pass rush), but between Sharp's and Lewis' success, and the awful personal foul penalty on Spoon that allowed KU to prolong a drive and get seven points instead of three, and the fact that Gachkar went completely missing until the late-game sack, this did appear to be the worst game of the season for the Mizzou LB corps. We survived, and that's good, but they picked a bad time to have their worst game.
"The Scorpion". Again, all's well that ends well, but do you remember at the beginning of the season, when we thought the "Scorpion" defense (where Mizzou features three DEs in passing downs, lining up Aldon Smith at DT) was going to wreak havoc on most of Missouri's opponents? That didn't so much happen. Missouri now ranks 84th in Sack Rates+ this season, and even though things have improved in general over the last half of the season (again, while the overall pass defense was regressing), the pass rush produced almost nothing whatsoever for the game's first 55 minutes on Saturday. That's not a good thing when your general defensive strategy is to blitz as little as possible, drop a ton of defenders into coverage, and hope your pass rush gets to Reesing before somebody comes open. Reesing had a ton of time to find receivers, and his receivers are good enough that they're going to break open eventually. This was like playing Missouri in 2007, and honestly, Reesing looked better for most of Saturday than Chase Daniel did in 2007 when facing the same strategy.

Considering the mid-season improvement, and considering the overall youth of the defensive line (only Jaron Baston and Brian Coulter leave this season, and a majority of the team's DL playmakers return), I'm still guardedly optimistic about this unit in the future, especially considering how well Mizzou stopped the run in conference play, but for the season the pass rush has still been a major disappointment.
The two-point conversion. When Mizzou scored early in the third quarter to get to 21-19, I told my dad to brace himself -- with Gary Pinkel's history with the two-point conversion, there was absolutely a 100% chance that we were going for two, even though it was still early, and there were obviously a ton more points yet to be scored. It's not right, but it's what he does. And being that it's a consistent mind-set, I can more-or-less accept it even though I disagree with the strategy. But man oh man, that one point could have made a huge difference.

(And if you insist on going for two, and you've had to blow a timeout early in the half to figure out what play to call, at least make sure to not call the single most predictable play of the game after the timeout. Those five minutes, which included the decision to go for two, the blown timeout, and the awful play call, were the worst-coached five minutes of the game for Mizzou.)

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

In the end, KU's 40% success rate on passing downs was neither great nor terrible. But the plays they did make on passing downs were gigantic. The 3rd-and-11 dump-off to Sharp that set up the game's first touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Tim Biere on 3rd-and-18 that set up the second touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Briscoe on 3rd-and-9 that set up the third touchdown. And of course, the 74-yard TD bomb to Briscoe on 3rd-and-12 in the fourth quarter. On almost every KU scoring drive, Mizzou had the Jayhawks on the ropes and let them off the hook, and while Reesing deserves quite a bit of credit for the role he played in those passes, that many breakdowns is still inexcusable, and it almost cost Missouri the game.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

Rarely will I nail a game key this tremendously, but for the first 55 minutes, this game was absolutely decided by these two players. Back and forth they went, with Briscoe winning the first two quarters, Alexander almost scoring a TKO in the third quarter, and Briscoe bouncing back in the fourth. For the game, Alexander had more catches (15 to 14) and Briscoe had more yards (242 to 233), but Briscoe's two fumbles and the two miscues to Briscoe on KU's final drive give Danario the edge here. But what a freaking battle it was.

MU's Running Game

[I]f Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Again, nailed it. While Briscoe and Alexander more or less canceled each other out, thanks to Meier and Sharp, KU won the battle of the passing games. But Mizzou won the war because of Derrick Washington and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert took advantage of openings in the first half and ended up with 94 yards rushing for the game; meanwhile, Washington was the finisher, closing with 111 yards and setting up Grant Ressel's game-winner with a wonderful 27-yard run on 3rd-and-2. Throw in Jerrell Jackson's 37-yard end around for a TD, and Mizzou's running game came up bigger than it had all year. Just in time to give us extreme optimism for 2010, huh?

Summary

While at home yesterday, I watched the replay of the game on ESPNU, and it really is amazing how many times the momentum turned and, over the course of the game, how many players made contributions to this win. Blaine Gabbert with his first-half rushes and great decision-making in the second half. Jacquies Smith with the forced fumble of Briscoe, and Carl Gettis for a forced fumble and two recoveries. Danario Alexander with his third quarter for the ages. Wes Kemp with his killer down-field blocking. Jerrell Jackson with his end-around (and De'Vion Moore with his amazing blocking on the play). Kip Edwards with his interception of Reesing, ensuring a one-possession deficit at halftime. Derrick Washington with his devastating second-half rushing. Andrew Gachkar with his fourth-quarter sack. Kevin Rutland with his fantastic man-to-man defense on the bomb to Briscoe on KU's final drive. Coulter and Agent Smith for their safety. Jake Harry for getting THREE punts downed inside the 3. Grant Ressel for capping off the most improbably great kicking season ever with a ride on the shoulders of his teammates. Despite all the breakdowns and all the stress the game's first 55 minutes produced, Mizzou made every play when the game was on the line, and they came away with one of the more satisfying, endearing wins of the Pinkel era. We now await the bowl announcement, knowing that a) Missouri will finish no worse than they did in 2006 (Chase Daniel's sophomore season), and b) Todd Reesing's career ended in the same endzone in which KU's national title hopes ended two seasons ago. There's poetry, and then there's poetry.

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-KU

Bill C. — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:30:19 -0000

I've gotta say, I had so much trouble paring Bill Carter's pictures down to just these 32 today. He outdid himself once again, and we are extremely grateful for his work this season. Hopefully we'll have some basketball/wrestling galleries to share over the next few months as well.

As always, click on each picture for a bigger version, and once again re-live the greatness that was (eventually) Saturday afternoon and evening.

The Morning After: Links

Bill C. — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:55:16 -0000

by Orlin Wagner - AP

23 days ago: Missouri kicker Grant Ressel (95) is carried off the field by teammate after a last second field goal in their NCAA college football game against Kansas Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Missouri defeated Kansas 41-39. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

View full size photo »

I'm traveling back to MO this morning, so instead of posting further thoughts on what we witnessed yesterday, here are a handful of links and, after the jump, yesterday's liveblog.

The Trib: Grant Ressel boots Tigers to victory
KC Star: Ressel mania: MU kicker connects for wild Border War victory
KC Star: Air smells sweeter for Mizzou when beating Kansas
KC Star: PHOTO GALLERY
KC Star: KU fans are torn in their allegiance to Mangino
KC Star: Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe share the pain of this loss
KC Star: Border war buzz | Reesing OK with play calls
The Missourian: Ressel's field goal lifts Missouri football past Kansas
The Missourian (Robert Mays): Danario Alexander's latest performance cause for Missouri football debate
The Missourian: Kansas football fans mixed on subject of Mangino
Post-Dispatch: Tigers get their kicks
Post-Dispatch: Insight Bowl may be next for MU
Post-Dispatch (Bryan Burwell): Pinkel's big gamble hits the jackpot
When he was reminded that his defense hadn’t made an important stop for most of the darned game (KU was a staggering 9 of 15 on third-down conversions and had already given up two scoring drives that began inside the KU 2), I asked Pinkel why in the world he decided to take a chance on his struggling defense at such a critical moment like this.

"You look at percentages," he said. "And you look at odds."

And then he smiled a delicious smile that had validation written all over it.

"But mostly you have to go on a gut feeling," he said. "I trust my gut because it's done me well over the years."

And oh my goodness, his gut sure was right and we sure were wrong.
PowerMizzou: Arrowhead thriller
PowerMizzou: PHOTO GALLERY
PowerMizzou: PMTV: That's a winner
PowerMizzou: PMTV: From the locker room
PowerMizzou: Instant Analysis
Lawrence Journal-World: Ressel's last-second field goal gives MU 41-39 victory over KU
Lawrence Journal-World: Mangino 'optimistic' he'll return next season
Lawrence Journal-World (VIDEO): Highlights
Lawrence Journal-World (VIDEO): Season over, seniors done
Daily Kansan: Era ends in Border Showdown loss
Mizzourah: On Field Celebration Video

Far too long liveblog after the jump...

2:32 - Greetings from OKC...I'm at my parents' house, getting ready to watch the game from the exact same seat in which I watched last year's game. If that's not an awesome omen, I don't know what is. I'm just going for the reverse jinx here, trying to offset the effect of "coach's last game" syndrome that always seems to eat Mizzou up...you know...Dan McCarney, Bill Snyder (the first time), etc. Reverse those effects, and I love our chances today...at least, as soon as I see that we're capable of stopping a quick sideline pass for less than eight yards.

2:36 - Oh, and it's already been covered in the comments thread, but WOW are KU's jerseys hideous. Probably not as bad as Mizzou's gold jerseys last year (still haven't recovered from that), but bad.

First Quarter

2:37 - Woohoo! KU receives the kick! Mizzou will actually get the ball in the second half! And double woohoo...we didn't kick to Briscoe! Short kick, and KU will start around their 35.

2:38 - Alright, here we go...Reesing's first pass is broken up! I'll take it...quickly to second down, where the aforementioned quick pass to Kerry Meier goes for about six yards. Third-and-4 coming..

2:39 - ...and Meier gets it easily. Get used to this.

2:41 - After back-to-back quick passes to Jake Sharp, it's 3rd-and-6...an official passing down...this is where Mizzou's gotta make stops...

...and it's broken up! Mizzou must have had amazing coverage, as Reesing had about 25 seconds to find a guy and couldn't. Nice break-up by Kip Edwards on the deep ball, and KU will punt. It rolls into the endzone, and Mizzou will start at the 20. And they get the ball to start the second half! Win-win!

2:43 - First play for Mizzou...Gabbert has a ton of time, and he finds Jerrell Jackson for 16! I'll take that.

2:44 - After an eight-yard run by Gabbert, D-Wash plows through for another first down, and in three plays, Mizzou is past midfield.

2:44 - Another pass to Jackson nets about six...that's two passes to Jackson, both into the body, where it can't be dropped. And on second down, a quick pass to D-Wash gets another first down to the KU 33.

2:45 - The first pass to Danario Alexander is a quick sideline pass, and KU was ready. Gabbert has to throw the ball away on second down, and Mizzou faces their first third-down of the day...third-and-10...make that third-and-15 after a delay of game penalty...Mizzou's not good in Passing Downs...

2:47 - Reverse jinx unsuccessful. Gabbert overthrows, um, whoever he was aiming for, and it's fourth down from the 40. Mizzou will punt. They've flipped the field, but the drive was starting out pretty promising.

2:48 - OUTSTANDING punt...Harry kicks it up at the 1, and Beau Brinkley downs it there. KU to start at their 1, in the endzone in which Todd Reesing became Sod Reesing two years ago...

2:51 - Ballsy play call...Reesing goes deep on first down but goes too deep. Second down.

2:52 - After another misfired incompletion, it's third-and-10...would wager a thousand dollars that he's going short to Sharp here...

2:53 - ...but first, KU calls timeout. STUPID timeout, as a delay of game penalty would have been a loss of about six inches...

2:54 - Alright...third-and-10...and KU false starts. Sweet jesus, are the out of sorts right now...KNOCK ON WOOD...

2:55 - Third-and-11 after the penalty...and...yup...underneath to Jake Sharp. Um, if I was willing to wager a thousand dollars on that play, that means it shouldn't have worked for a first down. Come on, guys. KU to their 18.

2:56 - Quick pass to McDougald, who gets a first down and is hit late out of bounds. Mizzou now peeing themselves, and just like that, KU's to the MU 45. Awesome. MASSIVELY blown opportunity...and before I can finish typing that, it's 18 yards for Briscoe.

2:57 - Five yards to Meier...is it possible that KU's given up on the run before actually running once? I mean, it's working, but wow...12 passes, 0 runs...

2:58 - False start on KU, which is good...only they're capable of backing themselves up right now...

2:59 - Ugh. Reesing breaks free to the 11. Mizzou had them at the 1-inch line on third down, now they're going to score.

3:00 - After a short gain for Briscoe, Mizzou blitzes but doesn't get there, leaving Briscoe open in the endzone. Touchdown. Terrible dropped dagger by the Mizzou defense. 9 plays, 98 yards, 7-0.

3:03 - Oy...well...that could have been bad. Jasper Simmons drops the kickoff, but he gathers it up and gets out to the 24. Alright, boys...respond.

3:04 - After a quick six-yarder to Danario, Gabbert EXPLODES up the middle for 30 yards...wow...that was some serious strong, fast running from #11, and Mizzou's to the KU 40. KU's Caleb Blakesley is injured, so we're taking a timeout...

3:08 - First play after timeout, and a really weird double option play goes to Danario for a first down...creative. Mizzou to the 31.

3:08 - Gabbert escapes pressure on first down and picks up three...I just cannot say enough how much faster he looks right now...dude's got another gear that he very obviously didn't have in October...

3:09 - After a short run by D-Wash, it's third-and-4...KU blitzes and Gabbert lobs one a hair too far for Jackson in the endzone...fourth-and-4, and Grant Ressel will attempt a 43-yarder...

3:11 - It's perfect, despite the "He's the most accurate kicker in the country" jinx. 7-3 KU. Decent response, though we need to quit stalling out in KU territory.

3:12 - Nice kickoff coverage...kick goes to McDougald, who is wrapped up inside the 30. Alright, defense, time to atone for your sins...

3:13 - Hey hey, a KU running play...power sweep (sort of) to Sharp for a decent gain of about five...followed by a quick pass to Sharp for about 20 yards or so. Seriously, how in the hell do you lose him out of the backfield again? And before I can finish that sentence, they run the same goddamn play to the other side of the field, with similar success. They are being far too freaking predictable to fool Mizzou.

3:15 - Woohoo, another KU penalty...this time a 15-yard chop block. They're the only ones slowing themselves down. Am REALLY annoyed with the defense right now, and I'm a forgiving person.

3:16 - After a pass deflection on 1st-and-25, Reesing escapes another rush (god I hate this guy) and gains about seven. Third-and-18. You MUST NOT let them convert this. You do not deserve to win if you start giving up 3rd-and-18...

3:17 - ...and Reesing calls his second timeout.

3:18 - ...and then KU converts 3rd-and-18. No pass rush whatsoever, and Reesing finds some white guy for a huge gain to the 1. Tim Biere. This is inexcusable. You can sacrifice a pass rush for blanket coverage, and right now Mizzou's got neither. And Reesing sneaks in from the 1. Disgusting. 14-3. Last year the offense was horrific in the first half, this year it's the defense. And Kansas hasn't had to do a single thing out of their normal repertoire.

3:22 - And a block in the back on the kickoff return. Awesome. Mizzou starts at their 9.

3:23 - Fake reverse to Alexander, and Gabbert finds Jackson for a first down.

3:23 - After a seven-yard keeper by Gabbert, it's a tunnel screen to Rolandis Woodland (hey hey!) for a first down. And that's the end of the first quarter. I'd say it can only get better for the Mizzou defense in the final 45 minutes, but that's far from a certainty. And I haven't even begun to address why in the world Marcus Malbrough has been playing on almost every down. Is Aldon Smith hurt or something?

Second Quarter

3:28 - Alright, Mizzou starts the quarter from their 39...and Gabbert picks up about 3. I like that he's capable of running so well, but holy crap, we're going to him a lot. On second down, Gabbert finds Jackson for a first down to midfield.

3:29 - Reverse to Jerrell Jackson, and there's a flag. Block in the back on Wes Kemp AND personal foul on Kurtis Gregory. Sweet. First-and-25.

3:30 - Alexander picks up some of the penalty yardage, fighting for about 10 yards. Second-and-15.

3:31 - KU blitzes...Mizzou picks it up, but Gabbert throws it a little high to Kemp, and Kemp can't reel it in...third-and-long...awesome...I'm sure this will end well.

3:32- ...actually, it does end well. Gabbert goes long to Kemp, and there's a pass interference call on Chris Harris. Not sure about that one, but I'll take it. First down!

3:33 - Wildcat snap to D-Wash for no gain...I don't think we practice that enough to be good at it. 2nd-and-11. Gabbert throws high to Jackson on second down, and we've got 3rd-and-long once again! Awesome. Three trips into KU territory, three stalled drives...

3:34 - ...reverse jinx somewhat successful. Alexander gets about seven yards, and it's 4th-and-2...this would be about a 50-yard FG, so I assume we're going for it...yep...

3:35 - ...and we get it. Out route to Alexander for about eight. First down. Holding on by a string here. Five catches for Danario.

3:36 - Wow...Gabbert tries to escape the pocket but doesn't see the Onyegbule coming from the side. Fumble, KU recovers. Sigh. And Gabbert's a little roughed up.

3:37 - Six-yarder to Briscoe, then an easy first down to Meier...who fumbles...but they're saying he was down. REALLY close. They'll review, but I assume it'll remain KU's ball. Of course, the announcers are PISSING ME OFF, saying he was clearly down, as there was nothing clear about it.

3:39 - Yup, still KU ball.

3:40 - Hey hey! Mizzou was accounting for the dump-off to Sharp! No gain! Option to Sharp gets only about three, so once again it's a passing down on third down for KU...no reason to think KU won't convert this one too.

3:41 - Reverse jinx successful! Easy pass to Briscoe for a first, but he drops it. Once again, only KU can stop KU. Either way, a bullet dodged, and KU will punt.

3:42 - And after a kick-catch interference, Mizzou actually starts with good field position for once! Okay, not good, but the 34's not terrible.

3:45 - Hmm...apparently Gabbert can only throw an accurate pass to Alexander right now. Another one that's off to Jackson. Second down.

3:46 - Terrible out pass to Kemp, and just like that it's 3rd-and-10...oy...

3:46 - ...and Gabbert overthrows Alexander. Three off passes, and time to punt. Not a great sign.

3:47 - Wow, Jake Harry for MVP. A 56-yard bomb and good coverage, and KU will start at their 11. Alright, defense, KU did you a favor last time...keep stepping it up...

3:49 - Wow, Will Ebner lights up Dez Briscoe after five yards...I do enjoy that he hits hard enough that he doesn't have to form tackle...of course, I'd prefer he also form tackle, but whatever...

3:50 - Another sideline pass to Briscoe, who fights for a first down but is stripped by Jacquies Smith! The Carl Gettis Treatment recovers and returns it to the KU 5. They're reviewing it, but it was pretty clearly a fumble...my head's going to explode if this is overturned.

3:52 - Mizzou ball! First-and-goal!

3:53 - Tough Gabbert keeper gets to the 2...second down...

3:53 - Washington to the 1...third down...the color commentator is talking smack about how hard it is to score in the red zone out of the spread...despite all evidence to the contrary. Seriously, watch college football occasionally. That narrative died two years ago.

3:54 - Case in point: touchdown, D-Wash! 14-10! Under six minutes left in Q2...

3:58 - Another pooch kick, this one to Darrell Stuckey, who returns it to the 34. I hate having to do that, but it's absolutely the smart play.

3:59 - Two quick passes, one to Briscoe and one to Meier, and KU's to the 46.

4:00 - Okay, credit where it's due on the shovel pass...it looked like Mizzou had that eaten up, and Reesing threaded it to Sharp anyway.

4:01 - After Meier slips after a 1-yard gain, Reesing overthrows McDougald (KU's #1 WR in 2010), and it's third-and-9...I'm not optimistic.

4:02 - ...yup. Briscoe wide open underneath AGAIN, and he weaves inside the Mizzou 10.

4:03 - Touchdown, Meier. Sigh. Seen this before. 21-10. We're not blitzing, and Reesing is picking us apart. I realize blitzing might not work either, but hey...gotta try something...

4:07 - Nice return by Simmons, who is getting plenty of opportunities today...

4:07 - Nice, accurate pass to Jackson for a first down, and Mizzou's near midfield already. Under three minutes left in the half...

4:08 - After a short run by D-Wash, Gabbert goes deep to Jackson but is a bit too long...that's about the fifth "just too long" deep ball of the day. Disorienting, considering how accurate he's been the last couple of weeks.

4:09 - Also disorienting: Blaine Gabbert running VERY fast down the sidelines for almost a 40-yard gain...WOW...first-and-ten from the KU 11...

4:10 - No gain for D-Wash on first down, followed by a well-covered incompletion. Quickly, it's third down from the 10 with 1:09 left. Mizzou is 0-for-5 on third downs today. Just run a dump-off and make sure the clock's running if you don't get the first down...I do NOT want KU getting the ball back with a minute left.

4:10 - Ugh. Jump ball to Alexander incomplete, and the clock will stop with over a minute left.

4:12 - Ressel's field goal is good. 21-13, and KU's got a minute left. Do not want.

4:13 - Ugh again. Short kick to Stuckey, who barely steps out of bounds at midfield.

4:14 - Wow. Mizzou gets a little pressure on Reesing, who pump fakes and then throws DIRECTLY to Kip Edwards. Mizzou ball around midfield with 0:40 left.

4:15 - Nice coverage by KU on back-to-back plays, and it's quickly third down...and Gabbert throws deep and incomplete to Woodland. Mizzou to punt, but as long as it's not blocked, Mizzou will go into halftime down just eight. Could have been worse.

4:17 - Another beautiful Harry punt, and it's downed at the 5...KU will down it, and that's halftime. Could be better for Mizzou, but I guess it could be a LOT worse. And for once, we get the ball to start the second half.

Third Quarter

4:39 - Alright, here we go. Simmons with another solid return to the KU 35. Let's see if Gabbert's settled down a little. His hyped state seems to have helped his rushing and hurt his passing.

4:40 - First pass: broken up after a scramble right.

4:40 - Second pass: quickly to Danario, who runs for a first down. Love that play. Mizzou to their 45.

4:41 - Third pass: a 150-mph dart to Danario, who can't handle it.

4:42 - Fourth pass: quickly to Danario, who...is Danario. He breaks tackles, outruns guys, and gets down to the KU 26.

4:43 - D-Wash for 12 yards, then D-Wash for 14...touchdown! Brilliant blocking. And of course we're going for two...we always do...and we call timeout. Sigh.

4:45 - Keeper by Gabbert is eaten up, as everybody in the stadium knew Gabbert was keeping it, despite the fact that we blew a timeout to reconsider. 21-19.

4:48 - Woah...deep kickoff to Briscoe...was that intentional? Either way, it was well-covered, and KU will start inside their 25.

4:49 - Nice, tough run for a first down by Jake Sharp, and you know what? I'm fine with that. Let him keep running--it's when they're passing and he drifts into the open that he becomes a bigger weapon.

4:50 - After an off-target pass by Reesing, Mizzou blitzes and Reesing barely finds Briscoe, but Kevin Rutland is called for "grabbing the helmet opening"...pretty shoddy call...his hand ended up there, but there was no grabbing. Either way, KU's in Mizzou territory.

4:52 - Another tough run by Sharp. His first good MU-KU game. First down at the MU 36.

4:52 - A short pass to Meier for four yards, followed by a false start, and it'll be 2nd-and-11.

4:53 - Eight yards to Meier, and it'll be 3rd-and-3...allowing this conversion is more excusable...

4:54 - ...of course, allowing Reesing to camp out for 15 seconds and find Biere for an easy catch is not. KU to the 15.

4:54 - Hello, Brian Coulter! Stops Sharp for a gain of 1.

4:55 - Pressure on Reesing, and he fires too hard for Jonathan Wilson, incomplete. Third-and-9. HOLD THEM HERE.

4:56 - Hey hey! Kip Edwards breaks up the pass to Briscoe, and KU has to settle for a FG.

4:57 - Or not. Sean Weatherspoon is called for a personal foul on the field goal, and it's first down, KU. And ABC REFUSES to show a replay, which naturally leads me to believe it was a terrible call.

4:58 - Reesing gets to the 2 on first down, and Sharp gets nothing on second down...third-and-goal...still waiting for a replay on the 'Spoon penalty...

4:59 - Third-and-goal...and Reesing has to call timeout. And ABC STILL WON'T SHOW WHAT SPOON DID. This is unbelievable.

5:00 - Touchdown, Meier. Phantom penalty on 'Spoon hands KU four extra points. And yes, I will continue calling it a horrendous, B.S., phantom penalty until ABC decides to show me what happened. Freaking inexcusable. 28-19.

5:02 - According to s dub in comments,

Spoon "hit the center prior to being allowed to hit him" acc. to referee. Pinkel livid

Via Dave Matter's twitter.

Wow. If we lose by less than four points, I'm going to lose my mind.

5:04 - Simmons with another solid return, out past the 30. By the way, it's 5:04, and there is 7:24 left in the THIRD QUARTER.

5:05 - Quick pass to Danario for only five this time, and Jerrell Jackson limps off the field. Then, a quick four yards for Danario, and it's third-and-1. Uhh, big play here.

5:06 - KU is so paranoid about Danario that D-Wash easily scampers for a first down and then some.

5:07 - Wow...after gimping off the field, Jackson comes back, takes an end around and scores from 37 yards. Didn't see that coming. 28-26, and again, we are BARELY halfway through the third quarter. This game's going to last until 8pm.

5:08 - So Mizzou now has 21 rushes for 202 yards today. And 31 passes for 149 yards. Just as we expected, right?

5:10 - Sigh...another deep kickoff...only it goes out of bounds. Ball at the 40.

5:11 - Bradley McDougald's pretty good. Quick pass to him, and he avoids getting lit up by two guys and gets the first down. KU already to midfield.

5:12 - After a Rell Lewis drop, Reesing finds Briscoe after about 38 seconds in the pocket, and after a really nice run, The Carl Gettis Treatment strips him, and Jarrell Harrison recovers. So THAT's the gameplan. Let them catch is and run, then strip them. A surefire winner!

5:14 - D-Wash with a drop, then a 5-yard run, and it's third down...

5:15 - God I'm going to miss Danario Alexander so much. He ditches his defender on a slant, then STORMS downfield for a 68-yard touchdown. Wow. Meanwhile, Jerrell Jackson waves at a KU defender and gets flagged for 15 yards. In the first half, Todd Reesing almost headbutted a Mizzou defender after a first down. No flag. Either way, Mizzou is up 33-28, so I'll stop complaining, especially after the kickoff is only taken to the 35. Net win for Mizzou.

5:18 - Okay, Mizzou just got called for ANOTHER personal foul that ABC has no account for, and KU's at the 50. Crazy calls here, and incredibly bad coverage by ABC.

5:19 - Sharp is stuffed on first down, and The Carl Gettis Treatment breaks up a pass on second down...and it's 3rd-and-10...HUGE play here...which isn't usually a good sign for the Mizzou defense...

5:20 - ...and that's a delay of game penalty. Third-and-15. For the love of god, please stop them here...

5:21 - YES. Reesing is pressured and has to dump it off, and Kevin Rutland BLOWS UP Sharp. Fourth down, and KU will punt. It's downed at the 12, and MU will take over with 2:15 left in the longest freaking quarter in the history of the world.

5:23 - Aww...Danario just ROASTS a defender on a double move...59 yards later, Mizzou's inside the KU 35. We are so spoiled watching this. This is the best sustained WR play we will EVER see. 11 catches, 205 yards. Four straight games with 180+ yards.

5:24 - Make that 12 for 212. Sets up a 3rd-and-3...

5:25 - ...and Gabbert picks up the first down to the 22.

5:25 - And now it's D-Wash's turn to bull over four tacklers for another first down to the 12. Wow. What a way to end the third quarter.

Fourth Quarter

5:29 - Alright, here we go...final 15 minutes...Gabbert gets about two on first down.

5:30 - Second down...and Gabbert's sacked. The end of the quarter came at a terrible time, as KU got their legs back. Third-and-17 from the 19, and Mizzou will call timeout. I'm all for aggressive play-calling here, but nothing stupid, please...the field goal will put us up 8...(and of course, if we hadn't gone for two earlier, a field goal would put us up 9...as my dad has mentioned, um, a couple of times now)...

5:33 - Alright, here we go...Gabbert under pressure, and Mizzou will settle for the field goal. Huge kick here, and once again, the "most accurate kicker" jinx is in effect...

5:34 - And he's perfect. Again. 36-28. I like that score for some reason...hmm...can't figure out why...

5:35 - Deep kickoff to Briscoe, and it's stopped at the 29. I'll take it.

5:36 - Nice pass by Reesing to Briscoe for 8...he's still completing some passes, but Mizzou's making it harder on him...or has so far...no need for a jinx there...

5:37 - Reesing picks up the first down on the option, but there's a hold. Second-and-12 from the 26...and Reesing's pass is off-target. Third-and-12...

5:38 - Mizzou blitzes...and Reesing finds Briscoe for a 74-yard touchdown. Yep. For all those asking why we don't blitz more, that's why. Briscoe's really good. KU will now go for 2, and for my dad's sake, I REALLY hope they don't get it...

5:39 - They get it. Meier finally comes open after, what, 15 seconds? 30? 36-36. This game has had 124 momentum changes.

5:43 - Simmons is still shaken from being burned by Briscoe apparently, and he has to fall on the ball at the 19. Not quite the way I wanted to start this drive. Or not! Offsides on KU! Re-kick!

5:44 - Yeah, I like that one better. Simmons to the 45.

5:45 - Confusing play there...play fake by Gabbert, who looks to run, then pass, then run again, and he loses two yards. Second down.

5:46 - Ugh. Pass for no gain to Washington, and it's the always-to-be-avoided third-and-long...KU's got the momentum back...and there are STILL 11 minutes left in the game...time for another five momentum changes...

5:47 - Blitz comes, and Gabbert escapes for a four-yard gain, and on comes Jake Harry IV, the guy who WAS MVP before Danario became Danario.

5:48 - God bless you, Jake IV. Bounces at the 15 and rolls to the 1-inch line. Lovely. 9:44 left.

5:49 - After a move-the-pile run picks up about 6 yards, Will Ebner crushes Rell Lewis for no gain, and it's 3rd-and-4...

5:50 - Ugh...we drop seven into coverage and get no pressure whatsoever. EVENTUALLY he finds Briscoe for 25. Oy. We can't blitz, and we can't drop seven again.

5:51 - Nice rush by Brad Madison, getting a hand on Reesing and forcing an incompletion. Second down.

5:52 - And Carl Gettis will want to forget that this play ever happened. Dump-off to Rell Lewis, who juked him out of his shoes, and 40+ yards later, KU's in scoring position. Oy. MU-KU games cannot be any crazier.

5:52 - Hello, Aldon Smith. His first big play is an eight-yard sack...and it's negated by a 17-yard pass to Briscoe. And then Lewis plows forward for a first down. He's way fresher than the Mizzou defense. First down from the 6...

5:54 - Gachkar stops Lewis on first down, and Reesing throws a perfect fade to Meier on second down, only Meier wasn't looking...third down. Um, big play.

5:55 - Hey hey! Mizzou blitzes and it works! Intentional grounding on Reesing, and it'll be a 39-yard FG attempt...

5:56 - The kick is perfect, and it's 39-36 KU with 5:10 left. Now Mizzou not only has to score, but they have to eat up about 5:09 doing it.

5:59 - Nice return by Kemp, and Mizzou will once again start past their 30. I'm too tired to be nervous right now. Of course, that doesn't mean that the false start that just happened is okay by me. First-and-15.

6:00 - KU's ready for the quick pass to Danario now. Second-and-11.

6:01 - Wow...Danario with a catch on a slant and carries two guys for ten yards. Third-and-1.

6:01 - UGH. Washington slips in the backfield. Loss of four. GOD THAT SUCKS SO MUCH. I REALLY hate football right now. Fourth-and-4, and it's just far enough that Mizzou will go for it. And it's pretty much a given that Harry's punt will be downed at the 1, which it is. Three minutes left, Mizzou with one timeout. One first down, and it's pretty much over...unless they get the first down on the first play.

6:05 - First-and-10: deep ball? Incomplete, and it stops the clock. Ballsy call, but now that it didn't work, I get to call it stupid.

6:05 - Second-and-10: ANOTHER incomplete pass. Briscoe slipped and almost batted it straight into the air for a pick six. Oh that would have been great.

6:06 - Third-and-10: HOLY CRAP. POCKET COLLAPSES ON REESING, AND HE'S SACKED FOR A SAFETY. 39-38, 2:45 LEFT. Huge gamble by KU, and it did not work. WOW.

6:08 - Gettis returns the free kick near midfield. Flags down, probably off-setting unsportsmanlike conduct. Yup.

6:09 - Draw play by Gabbert gets about three, then D-Wash picks up the first down to the KU 40. 1:57 left.

6:10 - Wow...Gabbert throws it away after about eight seconds of needing to throw it away. Second down, 1:32 left.

6:11 - Eight yards for Danario on second down...would be a 50-yarder...1:16 left...

6:12 - Third-and-2...and...WOW...D-Wash gets the first down...keeps moving...keeps moving...breaks into the open field...and he's tackled at the 5. WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW. Injured Jayhawk on the play...

6:13 - KU calls their second timeout with :51 left on first down. Kneel it, make KU call their last timeout with :48 left, then kneel it again, kneel it again, then call timeout with :03 left. None of that "kick it on third down" crap. This is extra point length. Trust your guys to make it in one try.

6:15 - Mizzou does just that...kneels it and runs it down to :04 left. Now the announcers will remind us that Ressel is the most accurate kicker in the country at least 26 times to attempt a Wolfert-in-the-Alamo-Bowl jinx.

6:17 - Alright, here we go...come on, Ressel...

...

...it's good. Of course it is. 41-39. Final. I'm almost dripping sweat right now. Wow.

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

---

Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:15:17 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Sometimes no matter how closely we look at the data, the simplest explanations still end up making the most sense. I think that's the case in explaining Missouri's defensive struggles on Saturday. The offense, however, gets more baffling with more thought. That said, if you are ever inclined to spend the time it takes to read one of these posts, I recommend doing it this time. Lots to discuss, lots to explain. And if the numbers make you go blind, just skip to the words.

	Baylor (40)	Mizzou (32)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	52.9%	51.3%
Leverage %	61.4%	65.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.8	33.0
Close Success Rate	44.3%	48.7%
Close PPP	0.54	0.43
Close S&P	0.540	0.434

RUSHING
EqPts	7.6	4.2
Close Success Rate	33.3%	38.1%
Close PPP	0.31	0.20
Close S&P	0.648	0.583
Line Yards/carry	3.08	2.62

PASSING
EqPts	30.2	28.7
Close Success Rate	50.0%	52.7%
Close PPP	0.66	0.52
Close S&P	1.157	1.050
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.7% / 4.4%	3.0% / 13.6%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	41.9%	56.0%
PPP	0.42	0.47
S&P	0.841	1.030

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	48.2%	34.6%
PPP	0.73	0.36
S&P	1.208	0.711

TURNOVERS
Number	0	0
Turnover Pts	0.0	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	0.0	0.0

Q1 S&P	0.953	1.222
Q2 S&P	0.856	1.244
Q3 S&P	1.063	0.543
Q4 S&P	1.057	0.649

1st Down S&P	0.783	0.890
2nd Down S&P	1.048	1.144
3rd Down S&P	0.265	0.611

Projected Pt. Margin	+4.8	-4.8
Actual Pt. Margin	+8	-8

"Halftime Adjustments"

We all enjoy simple explanations, and because of that the whole theory of halftime adjustments has become very prevalent. It's how we explained the entire 1998 Missouri season (in which Mizzou led every game at halftime, yet went 8-4). However, as Smart Football and related sites have explained quite well, the concept doesn't really hold water.

The other coaching bogeyman is the aura surrounding "in-game adjustments" or "halftime adjustments," both of which are supposed to be the "hallmarks of good coaching." This is another thing where there’s a kernel of truth surrounding by a lot of speculation. Yes, a good coach will not do the same thing over and over again if it isn’t working, or if the other team has figured it out. And yes, coaching a game involves an ongoing process of what the other team is doing (this is one reason why I think, even if adjustments are part of the game, "halftime adjustments" are very much overrated). But if you want to see a bad coach then I’ll show you one who tries to "adjust" to everything the other team is doing with new schemes and ideas built-in midgame. Instead, teams with good coaching pretty much run only things within their plan — i.e. stuff they had practiced during the week. Indeed, much of what fans or commentators will pick out as an "adjustment" was something in the original gameplan that just didn’t get called until the second half because of the flow of the game.

So if this is true, then what the hell could be the cause of Missouri's very obvious second half offensive troubles? Part of the answer may lie in the next paragraph from that link:

While playcalling is definitely overhyped (hey, the talking heads get paid to talk about something), preparation is extremely important, and much of a gameplan involves contingency planning. It also means that the "base stuff" should have the counters built in, the constraint plays are already there, and the defensive adjustments are easy to make because they are a part of the system.

This offseason, we heard a lot about how the coaching staff had stripped things down in the playbook a bit, allowing Blaine Gabbert to grow into his role and not giving him everything they gave Chase Daniel last year. Is it possible that Missouri's offense is a bit too stripped down and not enough "counters" are built into the system? I honestly don't know. When I'm watching the game from the stands (and from the sideline view, no less, so it's hard to glean too much about any given play), I'm likely to only take into account whether a play was successful or not and who was directly involved. With only that level of understanding about this game and Mizzou's general second-half struggles, I shot Chris from Smart Football a quick e-mail yesterday to see what feedback he may have for the cause of second-half struggles in the absence of "halftime adjustments." Here were his general ideas:

My first guess is that a lot of this is variance. It's just when the touchdowns are happening.

My second guess is that it's tempo related. Mizzou runs a pretty proficient no-huddle, with lots of calls at the line at the line. It can take a good half to adjust to that fast tempo. If you buy that analysis then it's the first halves that are aberrations, not the second.

My third guess is that you're right other teams are adjusting throughout the game and that Mizzou is struggling with keeping up. Some of this is not called lacking counters, it's being exposed. It's clear Mizzou has an issue with the run game -- take away big days against Colorado, Furman, and Bowling Green and the team averages well under 100 yards a game. Once a team tries to take away Alexander and the like it's evident that Mizzou can't get much else going. I remember the Nebraska game Suh and the others just dominated the line of scrimmage.

After that...I don't know. I still think the wide disparity probably has a lot to do with variance as much as anything else. Mizzou's attack is clearly one dimensional this year, and Gabbert has played like a talented but injured first-year starter.

We all lean on the "halftime adjustments" concept because it's easy to understand, but it's a little too simple to blame Missouri's failures on the ten minutes that coaches have to talk things over at halftime. The offense is making adjustments every time the defense is on the field, and vice versa. But whatever the situation, Missouri is laying giant eggs in the third quarter, and it is killing them.

Here are Mizzou's per-game S&P+ numbers by quarter for conference play. Remember, 100 = average.

Mizzou Offense: "+" Performance by Quarter
Opponent	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Nebraska	65.8	80.9	66.8	64.6
at Oklahoma State	163.2	123.3	10.9	62.9
Texas	76.0	134.3	18.8	103.3
at Colorado	145.0	82.8	38.2	46.9
Baylor	145.7	153.8	82.8	95.7
AVERAGE	119.2	115.0	43.5	74.7
AVERAGE after NU	132.5	123.6	37.7	77.2

37.7!! For the season, Washington State's offense is the worst in the country in 3rd Quarter S&P+ at 51.1. That's how bad 37.7 is. Meanwhile, the 132.5 in Q1 would rank in the country's top ten. That's too extreme a difference for there to NOT be at least a little bit of, as Chris put it, variance. In a follow-up e-mail, he also said this:

Only other counterpoint is that during the early stretch of wins wasn't Mizzou basically a second half team? Being down to the likes of Nevada, etc before pulling away?

Also curious how much Alexander's big plays skew the data. He's been awesome, but has obviously been more bottled up in the second half?

Otherwise I dunno. I'll just end with a semi related anecdote. Someone asked the Colts great OC Tom Moore if he was going to install any new plays for the playoffs. He said hell no, if he had such good plays for the playoffs he would have installed them during training camp.

It is absolutely correct that Alexander's big plays have come mostly in the first half, and that would certainly skew the PPP figures. It wouldn't skew success rates, and the success rates are falling in the second half too, but that does explain some of the potential variance in numbers.

But "it's just variance--let's not think too much about it" isn't really very satisfying an answer, is it?

Here's what we know for sure: two years ago, with an experienced quarterback and four future NFL targets in the WR/TE corps (including two tight ends...probably cannot overstate that point enough), Missouri ranked 10th in 3rd Quarter S&P+ and 2nd in 3rd Down S&P+. This year, they're 55th in 3rd Quarter S&P+ and 35th in 3rd Down S&P+. All things considered, those aren't terrible numbers, but they represent a couple of the biggest drop-offs between 2007 and 2009. Is it as easy to explain as "the gameplan is good, but the receiving corps isn't good enough to continue to succeed for 60 minutes, and the quarterback is still learning"? We treated the receiving corps as the team's biggest weakness heading into the season, and that was before we found out we were going to get absolutely nothing from the tight end position. With Danario basically lining up as the tight end in the slot (and making plenty of nice plays), we've still needed production from the other receivers, and while all three--Jared Perry, Wes Kemp, and Jerrell Jackson--have made plays here and there, all have suffered absolutely crippling drops at one point or another. While the running game has come and gone at times this year, we've needed other receivers to step up at key times, and nobody really has.

Of course, we can talk about offense all we want, but we're at least slightly missing the point since, in the end, they generated 478 yards on Saturday. The defense that gave up 427 yards was infinitely more responsible for the loss, so let's talk about them.

Cripes, Get Back to Fundamentals!

(Header title in honor of a rather enjoyable football blog.)

The more I think about Missouri's defensive performance on Saturday, the less I start to believe that Baylor's success had much to do with any Missouri adjustments, or lack thereof. Let's break the game up into chunks to show what I mean.

Baylor's First Two Drives: 21 plays, 130 yards (6.2 per play), 9 points
Baylor's Next Three Drives (and first two plays of the fourth drive): 18 plays, 61 yards (3.4 per play), 7 points

After the first two drives, Missouri did, in fact, adjust to Baylor's gameplan. And really, this shouldn't be a surprise--as Kevin Rutland mentioned after the game, Missouri knew Baylor would throw a lot of sideline-to-sideline passes, and Baylor knew they knew, because that's simply what Baylor does. It's part of their current offensive philosophy. It worked early, as Baylor blocked well on the outside and Mizzou missed some tackles, and those quick passes got 8-12 yards instead of 3-5. But Missouri did, in fact, adjust and slow Baylor down considerably. Baylor scored on their final possession of the first half, primarily because of a long kickoff return and two (two!) Missouri personal foul penalties, but the Bears' offense was slowing down.

And then two things happened: 1) Late in the second quarter, Carl Gettis knocked Kendall Wright down using mostly his neck and missed the rest of the game, and 2) Wright pulled off what was potentially the biggest play of the game on Baylor's first third-down attempt of the second half, bouncing around, dodging about 26 tackles, reversing field, and picking up 21 yards on 3rd-and-7.

Baylor's Next Four Drives: 19 plays, 175 yards, 17 points

The stretch from Wright's third-down catch-and-run (-and-run-and-run) to Nick Florence's 59-yard bomb to Wright, in which Gettis' replacement Robert Steeples once again got burned, made the difference in the game.

The fact is, trying to dink and dunk all game long is damn near impossible--eventually you're going to have to go deep successfully, otherwise you're only going to move the ball for so long. Even though Gettis himself got burned for a 30-yard gain early in the game, he is still clearly Mizzou's best cornerback, and while Steeples is likely a better athlete than Gettis, he just isn't experienced enough to be getting the playing time he's gotten in close games. I still have hope for him in the future, and he's shown signs of great potential, but the times he's had to step in for an injured Gettis this year--Q4 against Nebraska, Q3 and Q4 against Baylor--have ended up disastrous for Missouri.

I should stop there, however, because I don't want it to even remotely sound like I'm blaming Mizzou's defensive struggles on one player. I'm not; just about everybody on Missouri's defense (including Rutland and Gettis) got burned at one point or another. The simple fact is, if you can burn a team deep, and they know it, you can go back to the short passes for 4-10 yards all game long. By the third quarter (one-play safety drive aside), Baylor had Mizzou's secondary on a string, and with good play-calling, there's not a lot a defense can do if their secondary is getting beaten short and long. Try to blitz? As long as they have a quarterback making good decisions (and Nick Florence was amazingly mistake-free for a freshman), they'll find a quick pass to make. Play tight to take away the short pass? They'll beat you deep. Give a big cushion to avoid getting beaten deep again? Sideline passes again. There's really nothing you can do from a defensive play-calling perspective at that point. Missouri's struggles came down to plain old tackling, covering, and (cripes) fundamentals, and with so many options at their disposal, it's no wonder that Baylor was able to put up an insanely high 1.208 Passing Downs S&P.

And not to give anybody any excuses to make--in the end, there is still no excuse for giving up 427 passing yards to a redshirt freshman no matter how well he was playing--but I guess it really should be noted just how unlucky Missouri has been with injuries in the secondary this year. Jarrell Harrison missed the first month of the season, Gettis got dinged up just long enough for his replacement to get bombed in two extremely winnable games, Jasper Simmons barely played against Baylor because of an injured thigh (Remember his deep break-ups against OSU? He might have been able to make a difference on at least one of the bombs...or maybe not), Munir Prince has missed most of the last month to a hamstring injury, and now Hardy Ricks is lost for the season. Ricks has never been my favorite defensive back, but he was still a better option than others. In all, Mizzou has not had a healthy, complete secondary all year, and with so much necessary rhythm and communication needed among the safeties and corners, getting burned at some point was probably inevitable. One would have hoped that the Texas disaster would have made the unit congeal a bit better, and it didn't, but losing Gettis and Simmons, our two best overall DBs in 2009, on Saturday was probably every bit as important as anything Baylor did.

Three Positives

Danario Alexander. Mizzou lost track of him in the second half, probably because Baylor was doubling him (I wouldn't know for sure because, again, when I'm watching from the stands, I miss a lot), and until the final drive of the game he only had one catch for seven yards in the second half, but as I mentioned Saturday night, 13 catches for 214 yards was just ridiculous. Again, he's on pace for 103 catches, 1,499 yards, and 12 touchdowns. With a second solid option, or with a running game that didn't come and go from Saturday to Saturday, this offense would be extremely potent because of the job #81 has done, and it goes without saying that we are going to miss the crap out of him next year.
Blaine Gabbert in the fourth quarter. I'm copping from Ross on Sunday's podcast, but there was an assertiveness to Gabbert in the fourth quarter that we hadn't really seen before. He's not the type of sideline leader that Chase Daniel was, but he's growing on the field before our eyes, and he made all throws necessary to come back and win on Saturday. It's not his fault that, nine games into the season, his receivers can't consistently catch his passes.
The defensive ends. Mizzou's three-headed monster at end had turned into a one-man show in recent weeks, with Aldon Smith's impact dwarfing that of Jacquies Smith and Brian Coulter. But all three played well on Saturday, equally (more-or-less) splitting 10 solo tackles, 6 assists, and 4 tackles for loss. Of all the troubles Mizzou had on Saturday, getting to the quarterback really wasn't one of them. Of course, that brings two other things to light: 1) Mizzou's poor tackling in the secondary, and 2) seriously, how great was Nick Florence? He got hit a lot and still made tough throw after tough throw. Even some of his sideline passes were thrown just past the reach of Aldon Smith and perfectly on-target to the outside shoulder of the Baylor receiver, where the Mizzou DB couldn't break it up. This is going to piss me off all the more when he makes about 15 mistakes a game for the rest of the season, but he was virtually mistake-free on Saturday despite a decent pass rush, and he deserves commendation for that.

Three Negatives

Tackling. Duh. From Dave Matter on Twitter.
Pinkel: #Mizzou had 18 missed tackles vs. Baylor. Yikes
Ouch. With all of the analysis we do on this site and in these BTBS posts, sometimes the answer is quite simple. If Mizzou tackles well, then the short passes don't work. And if the short passes don't work, Mizzou's cornerbacks possibly don't end up getting sucked up closer to the line of scrimmage and burned deep, particularly in the second half. And without those deep balls, Baylor does not win. We know they can tackle well--they obviously have in the past--but they didn't. Fundamentals!
What the hell happened to the running game? As Beef pointed out on the aforementioned podcast (you're all listening to these, right?), Mizzou's lack of success (and, really, lack of attempts) was quite baffling. Baylor entered the game with a solid pass defense and nonexistent rush defense. Well, despite second half struggles, Mizzou passed for 9.0 yards per pass...and Mizzou's tailbacks averaged 3.0 yards per carry. You can't blame Mizzou for passing more when the run failed so badly, but it makes me very curious about the overall gameplan itself. We hear a lot about how Mizzou scripts seemingly all of their plays for certain situations, and I love this strategy--if nothing else, it tells you they believe in some of the general concepts discussed above from Smart Football Chris. In theory, scripting a ton ensures that you are incorporating enough randomness into the gameplan that it's harder to adjust. But did the script actually call for that much passing? In the first half, on Standard Downs (looking only at those, because Passing Downs are obviously more likely to make you stray from the script), Mizzou threw 16 passes and ran just 8 times. Maybe this was a "pass to set up the run" thing? Or as Beef put it, were we so successful at the pass that the run became too much of an afterthought?
Kickoff coverage. Don't think I forgot about you, kick coverage team. Baylor entered the game a pretty solid return team, and they should have been expected to have some success there, but here was Baylor's starting field position after Mizzou kickoffs (excluding the end-of-half kickoff and the squib after Mizzou's last score): Baylor 36, Baylor 31, Baylor 20, Mizzou 42, Baylor 33. That's an average start at the 36-yard line, about 10 yards further than it should have been, and it particularly hurt Mizzou in the second quarter, when the return to Mizzou's 42 gave Baylor scoring position despite Mizzou's (at the time) defensive improvement.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here. Rarely have the three keys been so prescient.

Passing Downs

When Missouri has the ball, one of Baylor's biggest advantages come in Passing Downs. Meanwhile, the fight is about even when Baylor has the ball. Overall, this is a tossup that could go in the Bears' favor, but that's not a huge deal unless Missouri is turning the ball over.

Mizzou's 0.711 S&P on Passing Downs actually wasn't that bad, but it was almost 50% worse than Baylor's. This really could have been the single biggest deciding factor in the game. Baylor was allowed to extend too many drives. Against a freshman quarterback facing a decent pass rush, this should have never, ever happened.

Touchdowns over Field Goals

Let's face it: Missouri's offense has been simply horrible in the red zone this year. ... Meanwhile, Baylor's red zone defense has been downright solid. If Missouri has to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, then Baylor gets to stick around a little longer. BU does not have a lot of confidence, and the key to a game like this is stomping on the throat. Field goals are good, but they don't get the job done as quickly.

Thanks to Mizzou's struggles in opposing territory, Grant Ressel is a Groza Award semifinalist. That's great and all, but how much of a difference could it have made if a couple of Ressel's field goals had actually been touchdowns? Early in the second quarter, Mizzou had first-and-10 from Baylor's 15, got stuffed on the run, and kicked a field goal. Then they advanced to the Baylor 28 before Gabbert very much overthrew Michael Egnew on third down. Then, in the fourth quarter, Gabbert took a terrible sack (I don't want to absolve Gabbert from all blame here--he has to get better at throwing the ball away) on first down, and Danario Alexander dropped a potentially huge pass on 3rd-and-22, and Mizzou had to settle for another field goal. Mistakes have plagued Mizzou in this regard, and it continues to cost them, even with one of the most automatic kickers in the country.

Special Teams

Many an upset was kick-started by a special teams disaster. Baylor's got a good enough return game to make Missouri pay for shoddy coverage, but as long as Missouri plays disciplined and doesn't allow any major returns, Baylor's kicking/punting game and place-kicking aren't good enough to make Missouri pay.

We've covered Mizzou's struggles on kickoff returns, but we should also give a major shout out to Baylor's Derek Epperson and, more importantly, Baylor's punt coverage team. Epperson has made huge kicks all year, but he's pretty consistently out-kicked his coverage (just like I did with my wife, ahem), and it has led to some big returns. Losing Carl Gettis hurt Mizzou quite a bit, but even with Gettis Mizzou probably wouldn't have improved much on Epperson's insane 46.0 net yards per kick. Baylor's kick returns cost Mizzou about 10 yards of real estate, and so did Baylor's punting. In a game so close in terms of yardage and EqPts, every yard counts, and even with Ressel being automatic, special teams cost Mizzou dearly.

Summary

As I mentioned back in December, from 2005 to 2008, Mizzou went 15-2 against teams that finished with between a 0.251 and 0.500 win percentage, better than any four-year span in even the Dan Devine era. Fact is, Mizzou was probably due a loss like this, their first since the 2006 loss to Iowa State. I realize that any loss to a team like that is in one way or another inexcusable, but quite frankly it happens to everybody, even the Pete Carroll's of the world. That's not what certain fans (or Maneater writers) want to hear, but it's true.

We can be as dismayed and annoyed by the loss as we want, but let's not pretend it says anything particularly bad overall about Gary Pinkel and his staff. If you're looking for a coach who doesn't lose games like this periodically, be prepared to a) pay that man about $5 million a year (double what Pinkel makes), b) risk losing him to a bigger school that will pay more money than you ever could, and c) risk losing games like this anyway, because s*** happens. Even great coaches get outcoached. Bear Bryant got outfoxed by Al Onofrio. So did Tom Osborne. And John Robinson. Hell, Nick Saban (one of those aforementioned $5 million+ coaches) got outcoached by Charlie Weatherbie two years ago. The trick to long-term success is ensuring that losses like these don't happen often. Can Mizzou recover against K-State (a team that still has at least a chance of falling into the aforementioned 0.251-0.500 bracket)? Can they take care of business against Iowa State and make sure they still get a bowl out of this season?

A good response to a loss like this is what brings you long-term success, and it's time to turn the page and look to the rest of the season. The next three games will tell us more about this team than anything that happened last Saturday.

Mizzou Links, 11-10-09

Bill C. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:46:03 -0000

No, I'm not linking to the "I quit you, Pinkel" column at the Maneater...when that dude grows up and actually learns something about how college football works, he's going to want to forget he wrote that, so I'll help him by further allowing it to disappear into the ether...

And we'll talk more about the "halftime adjustments" concept in the Baylor BTBS post later today...

Media Day Links

MUtigers.com: Official Release!
Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and 2 TDs on the day, with the yardage total ranking as second-highest in MU single-game history – just 12 yards off the MU record of 480 set in 1992 at Oklahoma State by Jeff Handy. Gabbert’s main accomplice was Danario Alexander, who torched the Baylor defense for a career-high 13 catches for 214 yards, including a career-long 84-yard TD that helped stake Mizzou to a 27-16 halftime lead. Gabbert was 21-of-27 in the 1st half for 322 yards, and ended 30-of-51.

Alexander’s yardage total was the 4th-highest in MU single-game history, and it marked only the 5th 200-yard receiving game in Mizzou annals (the yardage record is 236, set twice by Justin Gage).

When Baylor was able to keep the ball out of Alexander’s hands, Jared Perry was the benefactor, as he got free for 7 catches for 145 yards of his own.

The 359 combined yards by the Alexander-Perry combo ranks as the most for a 1-2 duo in MU single-game history. That eclipsed the former mark of 314 yards set in 1992 (in the same Oklahoma State game where Jeff Handy set the single-game passing yardage mark) by Kenny Holly (15-158, 1 TD) and Victor Bailey (11-156).
MUtigers.com: Tigers Meet the Press
Lots of talk on Monday about in-game adjustments, especially with Yost and Gabbert. We'll touch on this topic more as the week continues, but here's how Pinkel addressed criticism of Missouri's halftime adjustments, or lack thereof: "I've always said this: If you’re waiting 'til halftime to make adjustments, you’re probably not a very good coach. We’re on headsets all the time. We’re talking to each other in-between every series. So, I’ve always said that’s very, very, very overrated. And I’ll stick with that."
Yost explained that making adjustments on the fly before and during a game are a never-ending process. He said Baylor played exactly the style of defense the coaches had expected and prepared for and made some very subtle adjustments in the second half that MU also expected and countered against. Yost also thoroughly explained his game-day routine from kickoff through halftime and up until the first kickoff of the second half. By the minute. And, like Pinkel, Yost faulted himself and said he needs to do a better job of game-planning and play-calling. He's exasperated with the second-half struggles and is trying to diagnose what's causing those breakdowns.
The Trib (Dave Matter): Tigers Meet the Press
The Missourian: Pinkel: Missouri football not waiting until halftime to make adjustments
PowerMizzou: Pinkel, Snyder break down the matchup
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Tigers answer the tough questions

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Mizzou Links, 10-23-09

Bill C. — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:58:39 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Who hasn't written a "Danario Alexander better late than never" profile at this point?

Browse more photos »

Mizzou-Texas Links!

MUtigers.com: Football Fan Primer
The Trib (Dave Matter): Writer's Block
BTS: What's going on with the Texas offense? Is it simply a case of no continuity at running back and identifying a No. 2 receiver?
Ballou: Every time we ask the coaches what is going on with the offense, they laugh and say they don't know either. They do. The chemistry isn't what it was last year, and they aren't producing at the rate they'd like. McCoy has been sick before their two biggest games (Tech & OU) - but even to him, that's not the excuse. They just keep saying they need to play better and execute better. He has Jordan Shipley, but beyond that, it's who steps up at wideout on a game to game basis.

I think the loss of two great glue guys in WR Quan Cosby (who caught everything) and RB Chris Ogbonnaya has hurt them too. I also think that Fozzy Whittaker is the best running back they have, but he's been hurt too much. He finally had his chance against OU and showed why, when healthy, he should get the majority of the carries.

Bohls: Colt has not been Colt all year. Never in a rhythm. Misses Quan Cosby and Chris Ogbonnaya. Their wide receivers have not been consistent, one reason Mack demoted Chiles and Kirkendoll this week.
The Missourian: Despite injury, Blaine Gabbert expects to spur offense for MU football team
The Missourian: 10 things that make Texas a bad homecoming opponent
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Webcast: Episode 11, Pt. 2

Oh yeah, and Texas? You can keep your big fan, we'll keep ours.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:15:09 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

This day had to come eventually. This is the first MU-NU BTBS post I've ever written following a Mizzou loss. What's striking about this set of data is...well, how predictable it is. No interesting developments, no secrets regarding why Mizzou lost...it was exactly what you thought. What's most interesting is how much this game has affected the "+" rankings of these two teams. Thanks to the teams' defenses completely shutting down relatively potent offense (with a major tip of the cap to the rain), Nebraska moved from 19th overall to 4th...and Mizzou moved from 23rd to 20th. The statistics raised questions about Mizzou's offense (now ranked 54th overall) but solidifed Mizzou's defensive numbers (now 16th overall) to the point where their overall ranking actually went up. Meanwhile, Nebraska now ranks 33rd on offense and a mighty 6th on defense. Anyhoo...to the numbers...

	Nebraska (27)	Mizzou (12)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	27.7%	41.0%
Leverage %	55.4%	62.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	21.2	11.1
Close Success Rate	30.8%	25.6%
Close PPP	0.33	0.14
Close S&P	0.633	0.399

RUSHING
EqPts	8.4	5.8
Close Success Rate	35.5%	33.3%
Close PPP	0.27	0.18
Close S&P	0.625	0.510
Line Yards/carry	2.15	2.32

PASSING
EqPts	12.8	5.3
Close Success Rate	26.5%	20.0%
Close PPP	0.38	0.12
Close S&P	0.641	0.317
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 4.6%	0.0% / 8.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	36.1%	32.7%
PPP	0.29	0.14
S&P	0.654	0.468

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	24.1%	13.8%
PPP	0.37	0.14
S&P	0.608	0.282

TURNOVERS
Number	2	3
Turnover Pts	9.7	16.3
Turnover Pts Margin	+5.6	-5.6

Q1 S&P	0.506	0.361
Q2 S&P	0.331	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.159	0.266
Q4 S&P	1.578	0.463

1st Down S&P	0.577	0.321
2nd Down S&P	0.368	0.342
3rd Down S&P	1.064	0.529

Projected Pt. Margin	+15.6	-15.6
Actual Pt. Margin	+15	-15

Reactions

Let's just throw this out there, right up front:

After Three Quarters

NU: 22.4% / 0.10 PPP / 0.324 S&P / 4.9 EqPts
MU: 22.4% / 0.15 PPP / 0.377 S&P / 8.9 EqPts

Fourth Quarter

NU: 56.3% / 1.02 PPP / 1.578 S&P / 16.2 EqPts
MU: 35.0% / 0.11 PPP / 0.463 S&P / 2.3 EqPts

It was every bit as bad as we thought it was, especially taking into account the 11.7 EqPts' worth of Mizzou turnovers. Mizzou won the first three quarters by a projected 10.1 EqPts (and, as you know, 12 actual points) and got bombed in the fourth quarter by a projected 25.6.

More thoughts (and all of these offensive numbers do come with a "It was raining buckets, and clearly the offenses were affected by that" disclaimer):

It makes me feel pretty vindicated about my system when the Projected and Actual margins end up dead-on. Of course, it makes me feel less happy about this when it comes at Missouri's expense.
Mizzou dominated field position in this one, thanks to Jake Harry (and Nebraska's inability to handle Jake Harry's lefty boots). But thanks to penalties and the NU defensive line, they could do little with the field position advantage.
With a Passing Downs defense as good as Nebraska's, Leverage % (the percentage of a team's plays that took place on Standard Downs) was going to be huge for Mizzou. It was--63% is very much on the low end of the spectrum, and Mizzou's offensive performance was putrid because of it. Between iffy running and holding penalties, Mizzou spent almost half of their offensive snaps in Passing Downs...and well, NU's defense is #2 in Passing Downs S&P+. You can do the math on that one.
Turnovers were killers for Mizzou, but only so much. What hurt them the most was potentially not recovering another muffed punt--in the end there were seven total fumbles and Mizzou recovered three of them. Get a fourth, get another three points on the board (since I don't have confidence that we could have scored seven), and things may have changed in Q4...only, Mizzou lost by 15, so maybe not.

We heard throughout the week what Nebraska was going to try to do on defense: drop as many as possible into coverage and rely on their defensive line to generate pressure. Here's what RPT had to say about that in last week's Roundtable:

I know we're all pointing to the Cotton Bowl and laughing and waiting to shred the defense, but I don't think it's a terrible move. Yeah, the NU D-Line has done nothing against Missouri in the past, but the MU O-Line had been far more consistent in those seasons and the NU D-Line hadn't been this developed. Nebraska can afford to play it like Bowling Green -- just hang back and take away the deep stuff, and trust your D-Line to get enough penetration on running plays to disrupt the flow.

Nebraska successfully removed the deep ball from Mizzou's equation (the bomb to Jared Perry before half being the exception, of course), and it meant Mizzou had to basically go with outs and slants. As I mentioned to The Beef during the game, Blaine Gabbert is a lot like Barry Bonds (resist the urge to make steroid jokes) in one specific way: Bonds' bat speed was so much better than everybody else's, that he could wait an extra split second to zone in on what the pitch was and where it was going and crush it. Well, Gabbert's arm is so strong that he can get away with a little bit of telegraphing his passes and still deliver the ball before the defender can get there. Except...sprain one of his ankles on the second possession of the game, and he can't step into passes and deliver them with as much zip. He couldn't get away with telegraphing passes anymore, and suddenly those out routes were being broken up (or in one case, picked off). When he leaned on the slant instead, Donkey Kong Suh was able to anticipate it and picked one off. Nebraska intentionally took away the deep ball and unintentionally (I assume) took away Gabbert's ankle and arm strength, and that made for a deadly combination.

More after the jump.

Three Positives

Mizzou's Front Seven. Rain disclaimers aside, it should be noted that Mizzou's line yardage totals were actually better than Nebraska's. They weren't good, but it does point to how well Mizzou's front seven played. And really, the secondary did well too, aside from two specific fourth-quarter passes to Niles Paul. On one, they bit on the slant and left him open deep; on the next, they double-covered a fade route and completely misplayed the ball. Both resulted in touchdowns. But either way, the Nebraska running game was nonexistant until Roy Helu's junk-time 41-yarder with a minute left. Until that carry, Helu had 16 carries for 50 yards and was a non-factor.

On top of that, Mizzou was also harassing Zac Lee with regularity. He was only sacked once, but he was hurried into poor throws multiple times.
Special Teams. It bears mentioning just how much of a liability we worried special teams may be for Missouri this year, and while the kick return game has generated next to nothing this year (Mizzou is 90th in the country with just a 20.1-yard return average), it is staggering to think of where Mizzou might be right now without the production of Grant Ressel and Jake Harry IV. There might be a better kicker in the conference than Grant Ressel (NU's Alex Henery, for one), but there is not a better punter. Mizzou is 2nd in the country in Net Punting (0.4 yards behind Georgia for 1st) and has consistently won the field position battle because of it. With a young, inconsistent (but still dangerous) offense, that is such a huge asset. Mizzou was great in 2007 despite their punting (113th in Net Punting)--this year, to the extent that they will be successful, it will be due in part to punting, and to special teams overall.

(Also, now's a good time to give a shout out to Carl Gettis, who appears to be turning into a pretty damn strong punt returner.)
This one may sound strange, but Commitment to the Running Game. It's odd to talk about this as a positive considering how ineffective the running game was, but...that's sort of the point. In previous years, Dave Christensen and the Mizzou offensive coaches seemed to quickly give up on the run if it was not working. Part of that was certainly due to Chase Daniel and his accuracy and decision-making. In fact, Gary Pinkel has already mentioned this year that they are sticking with the running game in part because Gabbert is still getting his sea legs, and they don't want him to have to carry the entire offensive burden. But as Dave Matter pointed out a couple of days ago, when Nebraska had all the momentum (and, suddenly, the lead) in the fourth quarter and Mizzou had to respond, they ran the ball. Whether or not is just to protect their quarterback, they are more committed to the run this year than at any time since Brad Smith was quarterback (and even then, we never did think they were committed enough considering their assets), and long-term that might be a very good thing. Unless...you know...the run-blocking never does get better. Hey, speaking of which...

Three Negatives

Yeah, the Running Game. Nebraska has the best defensive line Missouri will see this year--it is important to keep that in mind. Of course, it is also important to realize that the reason Missouri struggled on the ground against NU was different than against Nevada or Illinois. Against Nevada and Illinois, the defense definitively decided to take away the running game, and they succeeded. The Huskers, on the other hand, decided to take away the pass...and stopped the run anyway. I am four quarters from going from "worried about the running game" to "petrified." OSU likes to attack on defense, and they have good LBs, but their line is not good enough to take away the run by itself like Nebraska's was ... at least it shouldn't be. In theory there will be some holes for Derrick Washington this time around. If there aren't, or if he doesn't take enough advantage of them, then we've got some serious issues.
Penalties. This is just strange. Twice this year, Missouri has faced a team dedicated to stopping the pass and not rushing more than four most of the time--Nebraska and Bowling Green. In those two games, Missouri has been called for SEVEN holding penalties (and 12 penalties overall). Against the three teams theoretically attempting to stop the run first, and therefore shooting gaps and keeping players closer to the line of scrimmage? Two holding penalties. The fewer people they have to block near the line, the more they hold. You would assume that this might have something to do with how long Blaine Gabbert holds onto the ball to look for an open receiver, right? Wrong. Three of last week's four holds came on running plays. You figure it out, because I can't. And because of that, I have no idea if it is good or bad that OSU is (I think) pre-disposed to attacking the line and the quarterback. They have an iffy line but good linebackers, so they'll likely be attempting to attack from all sorts of different angles...they will have a different plan of attack than Nebraska, but will that matter if we're only holding on running plays? Ugh. Just makes no sense.
We've covered the on-the-field negatives plenty at this point, so I'm switching gears with this one. The Fans. Yeah, I said it. (And yeah, I'm going to overgeneralize based solely on the people around me at the game.) Two years ago, for an 8:30 kickoff, our fans were amazing. They were well-lubricated, but not too well-lubricated. They were at the perfect level of happy and excitable. Thursday night, quite a few around us were past the point of no return by the time the game started. At least three of them spent a good portion of the first half squatted in "Am I going to puke? I'm not sure...but I wish things would stop spinning" mode. Just not good game management on the part of the fanbase. I'm ashamed.

And then there's the fact that losing to Nebraska brings out the absolute worst in our fans...even more than losing to Kansas, I think. But I have something to say specifically to the dude who was whining and yelling the entire fourth quarter. The guy who a) complained that we weren't running Blaine Gabbert enough (despite the fact that he was hobbling around on one leg...then again, this guy probably didn't notice that, since he didn't enter the stadium until the second quarter), b) raised holy hell when we didn't have Gabbert run on 3rd-and-12 before kicking the field goal that put us up 12-0, c) said repeatedly "That's why you go for the touchdown! That's why you go for the touchdown!!!!!" after Nebraska scored twice...in reference to the fact that we were throwing on said 3rd-and-12 instead of running our one-legged quarterback...ON THIRD-AND-F***ING-TWELVE. Because that would have shown that we were truly trying to score a touchdown, instead of, you know, throwing into the endzone. Anyway, to that guy, I say, you're a freaking idiot, and thank you for leaving early.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

First-and-10

Nebraska's offense is at its best on first downs, and if they are gashing Mizzou for chunks of 5, 6, or 7 yards, then they will be tough to beat. Meanwhile, if Missouri doesn't succeed on first downs, then they are playing into NU's hands--the Huskers' defense is great on Passing Downs. It's probably always the case, but win first downs, win this game...especially if the weather is bad.

Mizzou's defense absolutely won the first downs battle, and it was a major reason why they shut out Nebraska for three quarters. Of course, Mizzou's offense more than negated the defensive effort.

Derrick Washington (and De'Vion Moore...and Kendial Lawrence...and the hosses up front)

If NU really is going to rely on a dime package to get the job done against Missouri, then the Tigers have to run the ball well. They might get away with dink-and-dunk short passing, but with this strategy, Nebraska might be trying to pull off what Bowling Green did for a while--cover everybody and make Gabbert freak out, get happy feet, and leave the pocket. Bad things happened to Missouri when that happened, and while he clearly learned as the game wore on, a) NU's better than BGSU, so in theory they'll be able to execute the strategy even better, and b) it's a much more sound strategy than "Make Gabbert beat you"...because he will. If they are trying to drop as many into coverage as possible, and Missouri still can't run the ball, then...well, they don't deserve to win. Nebraska is only decent up front against the run, not great--consider this a huge challenge to everybody involved in the running game--the backs, the line, the coaches, everybody.

Guess that means Missouri didn't deserve to win, huh?

Turnovers

Again, this is always the case. If you don't win the turnover battle, you will obviously struggle to win the game. That said, the projection for this game is Missouri by 0.4 points. Turnovers are worth anywhere between about 4 and 14 points. Do the math. In such a tightly-projected game, one big mistake could make all the difference.

Turnovers were the major reason Missouri had the lead for three quarters...and the major reason they lost the lead in the fourth. Until junk-time, Nebraska only managed one scoring drive, and it wasn't even a drive--it was for all intents and purposes, a one-play touchdown drive. Their second and third touchdowns were scored on drives of 18 and 10 yards because of turnovers. Mizzou did nothing in the fourth quarter to suggest that they would have won even without the turnovers, but it did Nebraska all sorts of favors.

Summary

It was just staggering how much this game mirrored the 2003 MU-NU game, wasn't it? Entering the fourth quarter in 2003, NU hadn't dominated, but they held a reasonably safe double-digit lead. Missouri scored immediately to start Q4 (it took NU three plays last Thursday, but same diff), forced an immediate killer turnover, and racked up 27 points on the way to a seemingly easy win that was far from easy for most of the game. Granted, there wasn't a fake field goal involved in this one, but there might as well have been. I guess it's worth noting that Nebraska ended up 10-4 in 2003, looking great against bad teams and iffy against good ones. There are only three good teams left on Mizzou's schedule--OSU, Texas, Kansas--so losing to Nebraska is far from the end of the world overall. Of course, it was still a pretty damaging loss for three reasons:

First, it really does almost kill Missouri's North title chances. Obviously they can still win it, but now they need some help from Nebraska. To overcome this disadvantage and get in the correct mind-state, they will have to take an example from Nebraska, of all teams. Missouri beat them by 35 last year and looked like they would absolutely cruise to the North title...but if Jordan Lake doesn't drop a sure interception of Chase Daniel late in the fourth quarter in Waco, then it is very likely that Baylor beats Missouri and Nebraska goes to the Big 12 title game. Missouri will now need Husker-beating help from OU, Kansas, and probably either Texas Tech or Colorado if they want to still have a chance at the North. Not impossible, but let's just say that with 15 minutes left on Thursday night, Missouri's North chances were infinitely brighter.

Second, it hurts because Missouri is now staring in the face an 0-3 start to conference play. Here's where over-coverage (and over-reaction) of sports becomes a serious problem. Never mind that Missouri will likely be rather heavily favored over the next four opponents on the schedule after UT and OSU, and never mind that Kansas hasn't looked too hot, so a five-game winning streak to end the season (and a 9-3 record overall) could be a distinct possibility. If they start 0-3, people will lose their freaking minds, even if they look relatively good in losing to OSU and Texas. Here's where I wish I could bore "LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE" into everybody's skulls, but I can't, and it's going to get pretty ugly.

Finally, this loss was physically damaging. Blaine Gabbert couldn't hardly walk after the first quarter. Carl Gettis got hurt on a punt return, and his replacement (Robert Steeples, I think) got burned for the deep touchdown. Will Ebner tore his meniscus, and even though it sounds like he'll be back soon, he's still 100% out for the OSU game, which could hurt. Plus, Wes Kemp got hung out to dry by Gabbert on a high screen pass and got completely obliterated by Donkey Kong Suh, and he was worthless the rest of the game. Gabbert, Gettis and obviously Kemp should be fine from here on out (or fine enough to play well), but this game hurt, both figuratively and literally.

And really...fourth, it was a loss to Nebraska. That's enough to hurt all by itself.

Anyway, Missouri will now travel to Stillwater for a winnable-but-quite-losable game. They are not favored, and they will need an upset to keep from going 0-3. They absolutely can do it, but whether they do or not, I really do hope Rock M readers take the big-picture view to these upcoming weeks. The future is still ridiculously bright no matter what happens on the next couple of Saturdays, and there were glimpses of confirmation for that last Thursday night...amid the raindrops and the wretched fourth quarter.

SB Nation - Grant Ressel

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Kansas(39)

Mizzou(41)

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-KU

The Morning After: Links

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Mizzou-Baylor: Beyond the Box Score

Baylor(40)

Mizzou(32)

"Halftime Adjustments"

Cripes, Get Back to Fundamentals!

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou Links, 11-10-09

The North in 2010

Missouri

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Mizzou Links, 10-23-09

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score

Nebraska(27)

Mizzou(12)

Reactions

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Kansas
(39)

Mizzou
(41)

Baylor
(40)

Mizzou
(32)

Nebraska
(27)

Mizzou
(12)