SB Nation - Kody Spano

Should Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton Be Fired?

Jon Johnston — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:03:22 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

I know one of our guys is somewhere down at that end of the field.... here goes.....

Before I start, let me note that it's always an easy proposition to suggest firing people, especially when you're not the one that has to pull the trigger. If you've read my writing long enough, you know that I have a weak spot for firing people - I'm not part of the crowd that's constantly asking for someone to be shot in the head. It's too easy a solution, although I admit, a popular one.

I like the Shawn Watson's philosophy of a "multiple offense". I'm not ignorant of the fact that a powerful running attack is part of Nebraska's heritage, but the ability to shift into a spread and use the zone read and spread option plays give us a huge advantage over our opponents - we just didn't execute them well this season.

I disagree with the notion that Nebraska can't recruit skill position players that can run anything other than a power running game. If Bill Callahan could recruit decent quarterbacks (Zac Taylor, Joe Ganz) and receivers (Maurice Purify, Nate Swift), then why can't this staff?

You can write off some of the offensive problems as turnover in players, but only some. Still, the West Coast offense is largely dependent upon timing and that timing has to be developed between a quarterback and his receivers. We knew it would be tough to replace Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, and Todd Peterson, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen the difficulties Watson faced early in the season when the receivers were not performing as well as was needed. Menelik Holt started the first five games, then disappeared along with Curenski Gilleylen and Chris Brooks. Holt had 15 receptions for 175 yards, none after the Iowa State game. Brooks had 13 receptions for 177 yards, but none since Texas Tech when he had five receptions for 66 yards to lead the receivers. Gilleylen had 16 receptions for 299 yards, none after Iowa State.

They were replaced by Khiry Cooper and Brandon Kinnie. Kinnie finished the regular season with 13 receptions for 129 yards, with 12 of those receptions coming after Iowa State. Cooper's receptions were split throughout the season, as he finished with 13 receptions for 80 yards, with seven coming after Iowa State.

The only consistent receiver all season was Niles Paul and even he had problems (turnover at the goal line, Iowa State). Paul finished with 36 catches for 673 yards to lead the receivers, having six receptions against Iowa State and 13 the rest of the season.

That level of turnover doesn't allow a quarterback to develop the much heralded "chemistry" with his receivers. Granted, Lee's accuracy didn't seem to improve over the season, so you could argue it didn't make much difference as to whom he was throwing the ball.

As for Barney Cotton, the offensive line did progress somewhat throughout the season although the offensive output did not. The number of holding calls and false starts dropped as the season went on, and the line was asked to do a lot with defenses stacked against them to stop the run.

Add to that a general lack of depth. Jacob Hickman played well at center, and Ricky Henry started every game at right guard (the position that was unsettled before the season began). Marcel Jones and D.J. Jones played in rotation at right tackle while Mike Smith started every game at left tackle. Derek Meyer started when Keith Williams was injured, then Williams took over the starting left guard position for the final ten games. The loss before the season of Jaivorio Burkes at tackle and incoming freshman Brent Qvale certainly didn't help the depth issue. Off the top of my head, what we didn't see is the level of in-game rotation that we've seen in past seasons. (I"ll look into this more in the off-season.)

I suspect that most people would like to see Cotton fired because of his association with failed coaching regimes of the past (Solich at Nebraska, McCarney at ISU) rather than knowing much about offensive line coaching. In his defense, keep in mind that, other than Ricky Henry, these are still Bill Callahan's offensive linemen (In other words, Callahan's preference for size over speed still plagues the offense).

Going back to Watson, I'm not 100% sure what to think, other than he got hit with a perfect storm this season - a new starting quarterback, inconsistent receivers, and an offensive line that, well, had its problems. Add to these the fact that one quarterback left before the season started (Patrick Witt) while another was lost to injury at the start of the season (Kody Spano). Running back depth was severely hampered by dismissal (Quentin Castille) and injury (Roy Helu, Rex Burkhead).

A counter argument would point out that every team has to deal with injuries and then list all of the teams that did well despite them. For that, I have a response: Oklahoma.

The biggest problem with firing a coach, especially an offensive coordinator, is that you're going to throw away a year while the new guy implements his system. The counter argument here (I assume) is to bring in someone who runs a much simpler offense, so easy that you and I and a trained monkey can run it. Or perhaps magic happens and everyone instantaneously learns the new offense by having chips implanted in their brains or something like that. (If you're voting for a simplified offense, I vote for Texas Tech's then, because they replace quarterbacks and receivers year after year and seem to get the same fantastic results.)

So, give me your answer to the title question. Does one of these guys need to answer for this season? Or maybe both?

Countdown to Husker Football Season: #7 - Dale Klein Boots Seven Field Goals In A Game, October 19, 1985

Jon Johnston — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 19:59:01 -0000

Yesterday was not a good day for me, so #8 never got posted. #8 was, of course, the good ol' Big Eight conference. Oh, how we miss thee. Not really - the only thing that's missing is the annual game with Oklahoma - a big deal considering most Husker fans believe we no longer have a rivalry game. But what do you think would have happened to the Big Eight teams if they had not joined with the Texas half of the old Southwest Conference and formed the Big 12.

We'd be nothing more than mid-majors now. That's a fact.

Today is lucky number seven - ONE WEEK away from Husker football season! W00T!

Scott Frost was #7 - but he's not the seven I chose. Instead, I'm going with the school record for the number of field goals in a game, set by Dale Klein in a win over Missouri on October 19, 1985.

The Tigers were winless at 0-5 and on a nine-game winless streak as the Huskers came into Columbia. Nebraska had lost the home opener to Florida State 17-13, but had since been on a tear, squashing their next three opponents and then beating fifth-ranked Oklahoma State 34-24. There was nothing to indicate that Mizzou would put up a fight.

Kicker Dale Klein had only kicked six field goals in his career going into the game, yet he tied a NCAA record by kicking five in the first half. The Husker offense could score only one touchdown but due to Klein's kicking escaped an upset, embarrassment, and left with a 28-20 victory. Klein's five field goals in a half stands as a NCAA record, as does his seven for the game, tied with Mike Prindle of Western Michigan who made seven in a game against Marshall in 1984.

I remember my hometown newspaper editor writing an editorial stating that if that was how the Huskers had to win games, it'd be better if they'd not win them at all. Four of the seven field goals were over forty yards - maybe that old dolt should have tried to kick a 20 yarder without a rush just to get an idea of how hard it might be.

Someone asked me during a radio interview a couple of weeks ago what kind of a weapon I thought Alex Henery would be this coming season. My first thought was that it would be best if Henery's services weren't used very often, but given the injury to Kody Spano and the dismissal of Quentin Castille, it's best not to get too cocky about the Husker offense.

Alex Henery's accuracy does get Nebraska a nice weapon on special teams. I've stated previously my belief that this year's Husker team could resemble Virginia Tech - so we're potentially going to face a number of very tight games.

This season the Huskers offense won't be manhandling their opponents, but our defense should keep us in every game. Should one or two come down to seven field goals, five or more in a half, I'm not going to complain about it too much.

A win is a win, just the same as it was in Missouri nearly 24 years ago, and the Huskers are going to have to get them any way they can.

Mizzou Links, 8-13-09

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:47:33 -0000

Mizzou Practice Links!

Dave Matter: Wednesday Practice Report
Pinkel said jobs are set at punter (Jake Harry IV) long snapper (Beau Brinkley), holder (Brandon Gerau) and kickoff specialist (Tanner Mills). "Mills is doing exceptionally well, probably as good as we’ve ever had," Pinkel said. But he hasn’t nailed down the kicking job for PAT/field goals. "That battle might go down to the last scrimmage. I’m not sure," Pinkel said. … Same for the return duties. "We have some good athletes, but we’re trying to really narrow that down," Pinkel said. "We look at that every single day as we do everything. But I can’t really tell you who’s going to be the guy at either one of those. Punt" return "is probably always the biggest concern because in order to be at that position, you’ve got to catch the football. That’s the most important thing. Who’s the guy who can catch the best and do something with it afterwards."
PowerMizzou: Wednesday Practice Report
One thing we've known Will Ebner can do is hit. He showed it today, once against a receiver and once against a defensive teammate. First, Woodland went high for a ball and tipped it. Ebner and Simmons collided where the receiver would have come down. Simmons got the worst of the collision. Later, it was Woodland who felt the wrath of Ebner. The linebacker sniffed out a reverse nicely, stretched Woodland almost all the way to the sideline and absolutely lowered the boom.
Mutigers.com: Training Camp Practice Report
Practice closed with the #1 offense and #1 defense going at it near midfield, and the defense had the edge early on, as Ricks stopped an attempted end around for no gain, and DB Kevin Rutland stopped a screen pass to Washington for no gain, before it held Gabbert to little gain on a keeper. But Gabbert and his offense rallied from a 5-2 deficit in the drill to win four straight plays and claim a 6-5 win for the offense, which broke a tie in the overall standings for the day, giving the offense a win. The rally started when Gabbert hit Alexander for 10 yards, and continued on the next play with a completion to Perry for a gain of 15 yards on the left side. Gabbert took it himself on a keeper that went for 5-6 yards to tie the score, and he completed the comeback when he found Kemp for a gain of around 10 yards, with Kemp securing the ball by making a nice sliding catch for the win…
PowerMizzou: August 12 Practice Photos

Gary Pinkel, Aug. 12 from Dave Matter on Vimeo.

Other videos: PowerMizzou's ($) PMTV: Wednesday Practice Highlights and The Trib's Behind the Stripes Web Cast.

Husker Quarterback: Zac Lee's Backup? Kody Spano - The Man No One Knows

Jon Johnston — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:59:26 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Nebraska quarterback Cody Green, a freshman from Dayton, Texas, throws a football on Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009. during the first day of fall training camp in Lincoln, Neb. Ideally, a redshirt season is in the works for Green.

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While the Husker coaches haven't officially named a starter yet, there's little doubt that it's going to be Zac Lee. It doesn't leave for a lot of drama, and that's not such a bad thing considering the players the Huskers have to replace from last year's record-setting offense. Lee doesn't have much experience, having played in only two games and attempted two passes with one completion. Lee does have the benefit of having been around long enough to learn Shawn Watson's offense, and the buzz is that he's more athletic than Joe Ganz. Of course, that's easy to say - just like voting for the politician who doesn't have a track record.

Kody Spano is the guy no one talks about. Ideally, Spano plays well enough to win the backup role. He came into the program without a lot of fanfare after being the only quarterback in Bo Pelini's initial recruiting class. He sat out his freshman year, taking a redshirt season. He suffered a knee injury in the spring so no one got to see him in the Red White Spring Game. He has had a year to learn the offense, while at the same time is somewhat of an enigma because he is the only Nebraska quarterback that fans haven't seen play. There is no buzz about him. Fans don't talk about his speed or his abilities as a dual-threat quarterback. They don't talk about his arm - hell, fans don't talk about him at all.

Cody Green arrived on campus early to much fanfare last spring and LaTravis Washington received a lot of press because of his switch from linebacker. Both played reasonably well in the spring game, with Washington completing 21 of 31 passes for 190 yards. Washington is the wildcard here - recall the comments during spring practice about how strong his arm is and that the receivers were complaining about how hard he threw the ball. If we know something about the other three, we know absolutely nothing about Spano.

The key with Washington is that he doesn't need to learn the whole offense to be effective as a quarterback. Consider the "ducky" formation in which Ndamukong Suh lined up at fullback, or the Joker formation which featured Marlon Lucky lined up at quarterback and you get an idea of what I'm talking about. Plug in a few plays for Washington, and he'll be a contributor. Expecting a lot more out of him than that is folly.

An ideal situation for Cody Green is that 2009 is a redshirt season, giving him time to further develop and fully learn the offense. Pelini has already shown a desire to hold players back until he needs them, but the question is whether or not the two potential backups, Spano and Washington are capable of running the offense between them. There is o the idea that recruits might find it attractive that Pelini would allow a freshman to play quarterback, but if it doesn't fit into Pelini's overall philosophy for his program, then it's a stupid idea, isn't it?

Let's play devil's advocate and say Zac Lee has a bad day at Missouri. Will Bo Pelini let him play through it, knowing his young quarterback is going to have to make his share of mistakes to learn, or will he sit him and put someone else in to assure a victory in a critical game in the North. If Pelini puts someone else in, why wouldn't it be Spano?

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

Why They Won't Win the Big 12 North - A Focus on Weaknesses

Jon Johnston — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:00:25 -0000

There's plenty of offseason prognostication going on, and it's time to to join in the fun. The the Big 12 North race should come down to three teams, not necessarily in this order; Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado.

First a couple points to remember. Last season, Missouri and Nebraska tied for first with 5-3 records. Given that there's not a clear-cut leader, it's not unrealistic to expect that a similar record won't win the North again.

Every team has strengths and weaknesses. This article focuses on the weaknesses, listing two for each team. The beauty of the offseason is the hope that fans have in their teams before the season begins, each fan hoping that their weakness... isn't.

Kansas

Primary Weakness: Schedule

Kansas is the only Big 12 North team that plays both Oklahoma and Texas. Add to that a trip to Texas Tech and you're looking at a high probability for three losses before considering their games against their North counterparts. Add a trip to Colorado the week before Oklahoma and you've got your trap game.

Secondary Weakness: Offensive Line

I make no secret about an affinity for offensive lines. It's not a popular subject, most fans (and most pundits) tend to look at the skill position players and decide they can do everything on their own. Kansas can adjust in the passing game by getting rid of the ball quickly before quarterback Todd Reesing gets killed, but it takes a quality line to establish the run. Lack of a strong running game hurt Kansas last season. It may hurt them again this year.

Nebraska

Primary Weakness: The Passing Game

It isn't just about a new quarterback. It's about one half of the offense. A new quarterback, regardless who it is, can have much more success when he's throwing to a proven, dependable receiver (or two). Unfortunately, in this case, the Huskers don't have one. Niles Paul and Menelik Holt aren't at the same level as Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, the two players they're replacing.

If the passing game doesn't gel, the Huskers must hope they develop a strong running game or their Big 12 North title chances will be lost.

Secondary Weakness: Quarterback Depth & Experience

Zac Lee has attempted all of two passes and rushed twice - in his career. Kody Spano suffered a knee injury in the spring. After that, there's a converted linebacker and a true freshman. If Spano hasn't fully recovered, someone will be starting that doesn't have a full grasp of the offense. That's no way to win a division.

Colorado

Primary Weakness: Defensive Line

Colorado lost a combined 130 starts on the defensive line from last season. They have a decent secondary, but any secondary can be beaten if the defensive line can't put pressure on the quarterback. A weak defensive line also exposes the team to the running game, meaning Colorado will need to score a lot of points to win games.

Secondary Weakness: The Passing Game

The Buffalo passing game took a big step backwards when playmaker Josh Smith unexpectedly transferred. The Buffs' two choices at quarterback, Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen, haven't exactly been consistent. Some of that can be blamed on the ton of injuries that happened last year - it's hard to get settled when you don't have the same guys in front of you throughout the year.

If Colorado can't find an answer here, they'll suffer the same fate as the Cornhuskers - a one-dimensional offense and another mediocre season.

Missouri

Primary Weakness: Youth

It's one thing when you're replacing a new quarterback, but then add your main playmaker, your dominant tight end, and the anchors of your defensive line and secondary. Add to that your placekicker, it's just too much to do in one season. The Tigers have some good players coming in, but this is the Big 12 - who doesn't?

Keep in mind, though, that by the end of the season this team will no longer be ‘inexperienced'. That's when they play Kansas.

Secondary Weakness: Coaching Staff Changes

After eight years with no changes, Pinkel's staff went through a bunch of changes this offseason. Missouri fans might be grateful that defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is gone, but the new guy, Dave Steckel, has been coaching linebackers for the past eight seasons. Regardless of how good he is, he's in the same position as his players. It'll take some time to adjust. Add to that an offensive coordinator change as former quarterback coach David Yost takes over offensive coordinator positions from Dave Christensen who's now the head coach at Wyoming.

There's simply too much change to overcome in one season for the Tigers.

Iowa State

Primary Weakness: New Coaching Staff

Gene Chizik left after two conference wins in two seasons, leaving the Cyclones with a ten-game losing streak. Iowa State appears to have made a good hire in Paul Rhoads, an Iowa native who was born within ten miles of Jack Trice stadium. Rhoads' hiring of offensive coordinator Tom Herman from Rice and defensive coordinator Wally Burnham from South Florida look like great moves, but, like any staff turnover, a new system takes time.

Secondary Weakness: They're Iowa State

Not to be rude to the Cyclone fans, but Iowa State couldn't grab the Big 12 North title when they had good teams. They have some good players (QB Austen Arnaud, DB/KR Leonard Johnson), but they don't have enough to make up for all the changes.

Kansas State

Primary Weakness: Dis-array

It wasn't enough that Ron Prince brought in a bunch of JUCO transfers who didn't work out last season, nor that Bill Snyder was called in to perform another miracle. Add to that the discovery that former athletic director Robert Krause entered into a (double) secret contract with Ron Prince that would allow Prince to be paid $3.2M well after he'd already been fired. You might say this doesn't directly affect the football team, but you'd be wrong. Any time an organization suffers chaos, it impacts every aspect of operations. Coaches, fans, and players may choose to ignore it, but the monetary cost (whether KSU has to pay the full $3.2M or not) and prestige damage alone will hinder development.

Secondary Weakness: New Coaching Staff

Given what Ron Prince did to Kansas State, this could be considered a strength. Unfortunately, it's (again) all about change - players learning what the new coaching staff wants them to do. Snyder might have some magic left, and his hiring of defensive coordinator Vic Koenning was a great move, but the Wildcats have to first find players to fill the slots. After they've figured out who's going where, they'll have to teach them their new systems, which means they've got more of a mountain to climb than your average new coaching staff.

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU

10Jordan Reed 4* Florida

11Raymond Cotton 4* Ole Miss

Not included – 14 Denard Robinson 4* ATH - Michigan

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2009

1Matt Barkley 5* USC

2Garrett Gilbert 5* Texas

3Aaron Murray 4* Georgia

4Tajh Boyd 4* Clemson

5Bryn Renner 4* North Carolina

6Richard Brehaut 4* UCLA

7AJ McCarron 4* Alabama

8Tom Savage 4* Rutgers

9Andrew Maxwell 4* Michigan State

10Allan Bridgford 4* California

11Zach Mettenberger 4* Georgia

12Tyler Russell 4* Mississippi State

13Josh Nunes 4* Stanford

14Ryan Mossakowski 4* Kentucky

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2008

1Terrelle Pryor 5* OSU – You may have heard of him

2E.J. Manuel 4* Florida State

3MarQueis Gray 4* Minnesota - eligibility issues

4Robert Griffin 4* Baylor - Starter

5Matt Scott 4* Arizona

6Darron Thomas 4* Oregon - Bench

7Curt Phillips 4* Wisconsin

8B.J. Daniels 4* South Florida

9Kody Spano 3* Nebraska

10Jaybo Shaw 3* Georgia Tech - Included for awesome name

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2008

1Blaine Gabbert 5* Missouri - sorta starter

2Dayne Crist 5* Notre Dame - Bench

3Mike Glennon 4* N.C. State - starter

4Andrew Luck 4* Stanford

5Star Jackson 4* Alabama

6Landry Jones 4* Oklahoma

7Jacory Harris 4* Miami - Starter

8Jordan Jefferson 4* LSU

9Tyler Wilson 4* Arkansas

10Kyle Parker 4* Clemson

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2007

1Tyrod Taylor 5* VTech – Starter

2Cameron Newton 5* Florida

3Aaron Corp 4* Southern Cal - Starter

4Stephen Garcia 4* South Carolina - washout?

5Willy Korn 4* Clemson - Starter

6Keith Nichol 4* Oklahoma - Bench/transfer?

7Chris Forcier 4* UCLA - Washout/transfer

8Kodi Burns 4*Auburn

9Josh Nesbitt 4* Georgia Tech - starter

10Logan Gray 4* Georgia

11Kellen Kiilsgaard 4* Stanford

12Bradley Starks 4* West Virginia

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2007

1Jimmy Clausen 5* Notre Dame - Starter

2Ryan Mallett 5* Michigan – Transfer/Starter

3John Brantley 4* Florida

4Mike Paulus 4* North Carolina

5Peter Lalich 4*Virginia

6Pat Bostick 4*Pittsburgh - Bench

7Jarrett Lee 4* LSU - sorta starter

8Robert Marve 4* Miami-FL - washout/transfer

9Steven Threet 4* Georgia Tech – Sadly, washout/Transfer x2.

10BJ Coleman 4* Tennessee - nothing

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2006

1Tim Tebow 5* Florida (Football Jesus)

2Demetrius Jones 4* Notre Dame Washout/Transfer – Now a linebacker at NIU

3Jevan Snead 4* Texas – Transfer/Starter at Ole Miss

4Jake Locker 4* Washington – Punching bag/Starter

5Jeremy Ricker 4* Maryland

6Austen Arnaud 4* Iowa State

7Garrett Green 4* Southern Cal - bench

8Sherrod Harris 4* Texas - bench

9Antonio Henton 4* Ohio State – Who?

11Rick Stanzi 3* Iowa – Starter/Manzi

14Adam Weber 3* Minnesota - Starter

15Nate Davis 3* Ball State - NFL

16Todd Reesing 3* Kansas – Marky M says Balla.

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2006

1Matthew Stafford 5* Georgia 1DC

2Mitch Mustain 5* Arkansas Washout

3Isiah Williams 4* Illinois Starter

4Josh Freeman 4* Kansas State Starter/washout/NFL?

5Pat Devlin 4* Penn State washout/transfer

6Kevin Riley 4* California sorta starter

7Neil Caudle 4* Auburn bench

8Chris Smelley 4* South Carolina sorta starter/washout

9Zach Frazer 4* Notre Dame washout

10Tyler Lyon 3* Arizona Bench

11Greg McElroy 3* Alabama – Starter (sorta)

12Sam Bradford 3* Oklahoma (Heisman winner)

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2005

1Mark Sanchez 5* Southern Cal - NFL

2Jonathan Crompton 4* Tennessee - sorta starter

3Harrison Beck 4* Nebraska

4Derek Shaw 4* Arizona State

5Willie Tuitama 4* Arizona - One Time Stater/washout

6Rob Schoenhoft 4* Ohio State - bench

7Joe Cox 4* Georgia - bench?

8Arkelon Hall 3* Washington St.

9Domenic Natale 3* Michigan State

10Sean Canfield 3* Oregon State

11Bill Stull 3* Pittsburgh - starter

12Evan Sharpley 3* Notre Dame - Graduated

14Dustin Sherer 3* Wisconsin - sorta starter

15Colt McCoy 3* Texas - Starter Heisman Candidate

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2005

1Ryan Perrilloux 5* LSU - Washout of spectacular fashion

2Jake Christensen 4* Iowa - Washout

3Ike Whitaker 4* Virginia Tech - Washout

4Josh Portis 4* Florida - ?

5Kyle Reed 4* California - ?

6Chase Daniel 4* Missouri - NFL?

7Jimmy Johns 3* Alabama - Proveyor of Fine Powdered Products

10Zac Robinson 3* Oklahoma State - Starter

Nebraska Football: Catching Up On Spring Practice

Jon Johnston — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 11:00:11 -0000

Latravis Washington moved from linebacker to quarterback and has a really strong arm.

What’s interesting about this?

A couple things.

First, we have another story of spring that points back to Cody Glenn’s position switch to linebacker from running back. Everyone wondered if it would work, then Glenn played like a man possessed at the linebacker position, as if he should have been there all along. Could the same happen with Washington?

Second, once again Kody Spano is left in the shadows. He was overlooked by Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. Now he’s being overlooked by the media and Husker fans alike. If you’re not pulling for this guy to do well, you should be.

Marcus Mendoza moved from running back to wide receiver.

"Just looking for speed, someone who can bring speed to the outside perimeter," offensive coordinator Shawn Watson said.

From what I’ve seen of Mendoza (which is little, same as you), I wouldn’t mind him seeing the field more. Perhaps he could be Nebraska’s alternative to Missouri star Jeremy Maclin. However, if it’s speed Watson is looking for, what about Curenski Gilleylen? Or again, are we just following stories, and reading more into this than needs be?

Consider another perspective. Mendoza should have been the third string running back, which isn't a bad thing. He'd see the field, get a share of the carries, and he's only a sophomore.

If he's switched positions, then doesn't that point to another alternative for third string running back? Collins Okafor, Austin Jones? Or Rex Burkhead in the fall?

Husker Mike pointed out that Phillip Dillard is in the dog house. You could take this as bad news, or you could see it from another perspective. If Dillard has been moved down the depth chart, then Mike Ekeler must have seen good things coming out of his other linebackers.

Like Will Compton, for example.

Going back to that Latravis Washington thing, does it really matter? Zac Lee is going to be the starter, right? Of course he is, he understands the offense. Still, I can't help but think about what a guy who used to play linebacker might look like running a hybrid single wing, kind of like some guy named Tebow. The single wing isn't complex, but it's more about power, will, and execution.

Hmmmmmm.........

So many questions with so few answers. It's spring football. What did you expect?

2009 Nebraska Football Spring Preview: Quarterbacks

Jon Johnston — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 22:12:27 -0000

Nebraska heads into 2009 spring football with coaches looking to complete the following progression:

Zac Taylor, Sam Keller, Joe Ganz, _____________

The key will be finding the guy who looks more like Taylor and Ganz than Sam Keller. Or rather, the Joe Ganz of 2008, as in 2007 Ganz experienced the growing pains that are part of any college quarterback's first year as a starter.

A little history refresher - Joe Ganz first real action began in 2007 when he replaced Sam Keller after Keller suffered a season-ending injury against Texas. Nebraska was down 28-17 and Sam Keller left the gme with a season-ending injury. Ganz hadn't played much throughout the season but finished a scoring drive to pull the Huskers within a field goal with a minute to go. Unfortunately the onside kick attempt failed, Nebraska losing 28-25.

Ganz started the next three games against Kansas, Kansas State and Colorado. He piled up record setting performances, but he also threw seven interceptions and his three against Colorado were costly as the Buffaloes won the game and kept Nebraska from a bowl game.

Enter 2009 and the Huskers will be breaking in a brand new quarterback. Of the top three prospects - Zac Lee, Kody Spano, and Cody Green - only Lee has taken snaps in a game. Regardless of who's anointed as the next starter (and there will be no starter announced in the spring) remember that there will be growing pains come fall.

Replacing Joe Ganz is a top priority for the 2009 Nebraska football team.
Photo by Dennis Hubbard

Zac Lee is the most likely choice for the starting quarterback position. Lee, a 6-2, 210 pound junior, played in two games last season. He was on the field late in the New Mexico State game where he attempted two passes, completing one for an eight yards. Against Kansas State he had two rushes for a total of 17 yards.

Despite little playing time, Lee has been around the program long enough to learn Shawn Watson's complex offense (flashback to Ganz walking on the field against Texas in 2007).

Kody Spano redshirted last season after being the sole quarterback recruit in Bo Pelini's first recruiting class. Spano was set to sign for Oklahoma State until Mike Gundy informed him he wouldn't be able to take an early scholarship. Spano felt slighted while Bill Callahan recruit Blaine Gabbert had jumped ship to Missouri leaving a position open for Spano to come to Nebraska. The rest is history, as they say, and now we'll see how the whole thing works out.

Spano seems to have largely been forgotten as a potential starter. He's stuck between Lee, the inexperienced veteran, and Cody Green, the new kid in town. From his official bio, Spano was the ninth-ranked dual threat quarterback by Rivals.com and ranked by ESPN as among the nation's top 30 quarterbacks.

Cody Green has done everything right early in his Husker career. Like Spano, Green graduated and enrolled early at Nebraska so he could get an early jump on learning the offense. Green has plenty of talent, ranked as the sixth-best dual-threat quarterback by Rivals.com, while Scout.com ranked him as the seventh best national quarterback prospect. During his his senior year, he lead his high school team to a runner-up in their division,

Could Green start for the Huskers? Doubtful. It's unreasonable to ask a kid who has yet to turn 18 to come into a nationally known program, learn a new offense, start his freshman year on campus while at the same time answer the prayers of Husker fans across the world. Hopefully a redshirt season is in store for Green, so the only glimpse of him this year might be found at the spring game in April.

(There are rumors of an injury that might keep Green out of spring practice, but at this point they are only rumors.)

What to Watch:

How much will Shawn Watson's offense change from the previous season, and how much of that will we see in the spring game? All three quarterback prospects are mobile, so they give Watson the ability to run the spread option or zone read. All three have the ability to throw on the run. The key will be their comfort running the offense and their passing accuracy that separates them. Another key may be watching to see who makes key mistakes rather than who makes the big plays.

The good news for Husker fans is that we have three talented quarterbacks heading into spring practice, and in the fall the Huskers open up against two Sun Belt conference teams at home before going on the road to face Virginia Tech. It may be their ability to take care of the ball that determines who starts when the Huskers head to Blacksburg.

Nebraska’s Top Challenges Entering Spring Football

Jon Johnston — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:00:15 -0000

There might be nothing better on God’s green earth than spring football. For college football fans it’s like a big palm-tree laden oasis in the middle of a barren, desperate landscape. It provides a place of peace and relaxation, if only for a short time before a long journey starts again. At least that’s the case for the fans. For the players, it’s a whole lot of work in the hopes that the coaches will notice and move you up the depth chart in the fall.

Replacing Nate Swift Will Be One Of Nebraska's Top Priorities. It's Easier Said Than Done.

Bo Pelini had an exceptional rookie year as a head coach. His biggest problem will be that Husker fans expect his second year to be even better, even though he’s replacing the core of his offensive skill positions. If that’s to happen, several challenges that face the 2009 version of Husker football must be solved.

The list of top challenges can be found after the jump:

- Quarterback Auditioning

The most surprising news of the spring was the announcement that Patrick Witt had left the Husker football team. Witt’s departure lead to rampant speculation as to the cause, but regardless of the reasons, his choice left the quarterback position a little understaffed. With Witt, Nebraska had two quarterbacks who’d been around long enough to know the offense and take snaps on the field wearing a Nebraska uniform. Without him, there’s only one, Zac Lee.

Zac Lee holds the clear lead on the starting job due to his experience in learning Shawn Watson’s complex offense. Newcomer Cody Green has all the hype going for him - enough that everyone seems to have forgotten Kody Spano - but the best scenario would be that Spano and Lee perform well enough on the field in the fall that Green can take a redshirt season to further his development.

The key to the quarterback position in spring is simple enough - learn more of the offense to the point that you’re comfortable calling and executing the plays. After that, don’t do anything stupid, and don’t get injured.

- In A Word, Dependability

It’s not hyperbole to say that replacing the combination of Nate Swift and Todd Peterson may be one of the biggest personnel challenges the Huskers have faced in quite a long time. The pair accounted for more than half of the team’s touchdowns through the air, nearly half the total receiving yardage and along with Marlon Lucky, over half the receptions.

Swift and Peterson were remarkable in their ability to consistently find an opening in the opponent’s secondary, giving quarterback Joe Ganz a pair of dependable targets. I don’t recall a pair of receivers in Husker history who were better football players on the field at the same time.

When we talk about playmaking receivers, we frequently talk about that guy who can stretch the field, outrunning the defense while streaking down the field for the perfectly lofted long bomb. It’s that guy who makes the highlight reel and wins the Biletnikoff Award. While it’d be nice if one or more of our young receivers would assume that role those are not necessarily the guys we’re looking for.

Nebraska’s 2009 offense will need some of what it got in spades from Swift and Peterson, the ability to keep the offense moving in clutch situations. Moving the chains through the air to provide balance in the offense will be a huge key in success in 2009, meaning the replacements will need to step it up. It won’t just happen in a couple weeks of spring practice, it’ll take time. All the more reason for a strong work ethic, or in a word, dependability.

- Establish Run Blocking Dominance

If you had to choose one key to the 2009 season, it is in Barney Cotton’s ability to build a group that will establish physical dominance in the running game. Gone is last year’s right side of Slauson and Murtha, and while they excelled in pass blocking, they were slow off the ball when it came to establishing the run. Their replacements can’t afford more of the same this coming season.

Starting a new quarterback in combination with a relatively inexperienced set of receivers means that Nebraska must establish a solid running game this coming season. They are as responsible for replacing the Ganz-Swift-Peterson combination as are the receivers. If the run game can pick up four or five yards a carry, the passing game will have the time to take care of itself.

- Rebuild The Punting Game

Nebraska’s kicking game is in better shape than it’s been in quite a while. You couldn’t ask for a better duo than Alex Henery and Kunalic. Both are capable of winning games, as was evident with Alex Henery’s 57-yard game winner over Colorado.

Unfortunately, Nebraska’s punting game needs to be rebuilt. Nate Swift handled the majority of punt returns last season with Niles Paul getting some work. Paul showed flashes at times, but at others looked like a disaster waiting to happen. He must become more consistent. Better yet, Pelini needs to find a second punt returner. Spring football is the perfect time to provide that opportunity.

Nebraska will be looking for a new punter as Dan Titchener and Jake Wesch have moved on. Punting is as important as any other phase of the game, especially when you’re trying to return to the top of your conference.

- Push The Performance Higher

Pelini redshirted a few guys that might have been able to help him in his first season. It would have been easier to put Will Compton, Sean Fisher, or Baker Steinkuhler on the field to see how’d they do, but that’s not the route Pelini chose. He chose to invest in the future.

The redshirt year allowed those players to get stronger, more knowledgeable, and most importantly, more comfortable within Pelini’s system. They won’t be trying to learn at the same time they’re trying to figure out what college life is all about. They’ll be ready to take their shot and earn their time on the field. If you’re a returning starter, you can’t assume you’ll get your old job back. You’ll have to earn it.

Case in point is Phillip Dillard. A year ago, Dillard was the most experienced linebacker in a unit that had serious depth issues. It wasn’t that difficult for Dillard to keep his job, at least not as difficult as it will be this coming season. He’s not the only returning starter, and there are even more players gunning for his position.

Pelini’s choice to redshirt increased the depth across the board, increasing the competition for positions. The upper tier players cannot afford to give anything but their best effort, or they will find themselves replaced. Best effort must start in spring and continue through the fall. Anything less and the young, hungry wolves will get you.

- Follow The Leaders

If Nebraska is going to make it back to the top tier of college football, a new group of leaders must be found. The kind of leadership I’m talking about isn’t the kind that’s on the field, but must find itself dwelling in the core group of players who will hold their teammates accountable for their actions off the field.

After spring football begins the nuclear winter occupying May to August, an unbearably long time for college football fans. Leaders will assure the long layoff isn’t just that - a layoff, where guys take extended time away from weight and conditioning training.

- Back to that 'Stupid' Thing

This one is a little tongue in cheek, but not by much. If players thought they lived in a fishbowl during the regular season, the spring season can be much worse. The downside of spring football is that everything is magnified.

When 80,000 people show up for the spring game, they’re expecting a show. They’ll be looking for great plays on both sides of the ball. One poor performance will stick in their minds for months regardless of whether is has anything to do with what might happen in the fall. One stupid pass, one stupid fumble is all it takes. It may not make a difference to the coaches, but the players will hear about it and read about it.

The other unfortunate part of stupidity is this - get caught doing anything that requires a police report and your name will appear on every web site across the nation. It doesn't matter how minuscule it may appear. One not need look any further than Sam Keller’s cup throwing incident to be reminded of that.

- Pelini's Second Year Harder Than His First?

Bo Pelini has plenty of challenges facing him as he enters his second season. Take into account that he’s not a rookie coach anymore and you could argue that the challenges this year are greater than his first.

It'll be interesting to watch how Pelini handles his second year. Scratch that. It'll be more than interesting. It'll be entertaining.