SB Nation - Brad Langley

Opponent preview: Can Boise State slow down Nevada's pass rush?

Kevan Lee — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:08:11 -0000

With so much focus on the Nevada offense, it is easy to forget that the Wolf Pack defense boasts some of the best playmakers in the conference. Can the Bronco offensive line handle Nevada DEs Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch?

Join me after the jump for a preview of the battle between the Boise State offense and the Nevada defense. (I'll get to the Nevada running game tomorrow.) And feel free to leave your thoughts on what factors might make the biggest difference on Friday night.

8-3, (7-0)

Nevada at No. 6 Boise State

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00pm MT, TV: ESPN2

Weather forecast: partly cloudy, high of 44

Spread: Boise State by 14

11-0, (6-0)

Nevada's season-to-date

The Wolf Pack got off to a disappointing start, going 0-3 against the likes of Notre Dame and Colorado State. What went wrong? Turnovers mostly, and their 8-0 run since the 0-3 start shows just how important a role turnovers can play in the final outcome (and how random fumble recoveries can be).

Chris Ault has gone from hot seat to hot commodity, Colin Kaepernick has gone from bust to the greatest running quarterback of all time, and Nevada has made good on the preseason promise of a meaningful post-Thanksgiving date against the Broncos ... barely.

During its eight-game winning streak, the Wolf Pack has still showed signs of being the Wolf Pack of old. Witness:

A three-point win at Utah State. The Broncos just won there by 31 points.
A 10-point home win over Hawaii. Boise State beat Hawaii by 45 on the road.

Still, Nevada is playing the best football of its up-and-down season, rolling to victories of 55, 38, and 43 points in its last three games. The WAC is bad. Nevada is not. That alone makes a big difference.

Nevada on offense

WR Brandon Wimberly
RB Luke Lippincott
RB Colin Kaepernick
WR Chris Wellington
OL John Bender
OL Kenneth Ackerman
OL Alonzo Durham
OL Steve Haley
OL Chris Barker
WR Tray Session
TE Virgil Green

By now you've probably heard that the Wolf Pack can run the ball pretty well. I'll be writing something tomorrow to that effect.

Where the Wolf Pack will have to make the most of their opportunities is in the passing game. The team's leading receiver, Brandon Wimberley, only has 595 yards (the second leading receiver, Tray Session, has 291), and Colin Kaepernick is only marginally better than he was last season. Chances are good that Kaepernick will have to throw efficiently for the Wolf Pack to win. Can he?

Nevada on defense

DE Kevin Basped
DT Nate Agaiava
DT Zack Madonick
DE Dontay Moch
DL Ryan Coulson
LB James-Michael Johnson
LB Mike Bethea
LB Brandon Marshall
DB Isaiah Frey
DB Mo Harvey
DB Doyle Miller

The Nevada defense is last in the conference in pass defense (119th in the country), but tops in the WAC in rush defense. Part of that can be attributed to opponents falling behind early. Another part can be attributed to the Nevada pass defense just being atrocious since it has always been atrocious. The potential for big plays will be there for Boise State, and with the Bronco running game firing on all cylinders, it will be interesting to see just how good the Nevada run defense really is.

Nevada special teams

P Brad Langley
K Ricky Drake
KR Mike Ball
PR Antoine Thompson

Mike Ball is the forgotten running back behind Lippincott and Taua, but he's capable of big returns. The Broncos gave up two fake punt conversions last week. Fortunately, Nevada isn't known for stellar special teams play, but that doesn't mean they might not try something against the Broncos.

Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped in the spotlight

Moch and Basped, as any coherent Nevada fan will tell you, are THE NATION'S BEST DEFENSIVE END TANDEM BAR NONE HANDS DOWN PERIOD END OF STORY KENO. The statistics certainly show that the two DEs deserve a lot of credit for the way they have terrorized WAC backfields for the past two seasons. Here are their stats thus far in 2009:

Basped: 7.5 sacks, 10.5 TFLs

Moch: 6.5 sacks, 19.5 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles

Basped, an all-WAC first teamer last year, has done his damage in one fewer game than Moch, a reigning all-WAC second teamer.

Boise State pass protection in the spotlight

It won't do the Wolf Pack a lot of good to have two of the conference's best defensive ends if neither end can get to Kellen Moore on a regular basis. Therefore, the play of the Boise State offensive line will be a big factor in the success of the passing game on Friday. How will they hold up? Do you want the good news or the bad news first?

The good news comes to us courtesy of OBNUG reader Mikrino, who posted a FanShot yesterday with this golden nugget:

2009 National Leaders in Sacks Allowed
1. Boise State:   	11 games, 5 sacks, 32 yards lost, 0.46 sacks allowed per game

The Broncos are the best in the country at keeping sackmasters out of the scorebook. Even more impressive, Boise State has not given up multiple sacks in a single game since Oregon. The only other teams to get the Broncos were UC Davis, Tulsa, and San Jose State.

However, all this is not to say that Kellen Moore has been kept clean. While the sacks have been few and far between, the hits and hurries have not. Here is a look at the game-by-game pressure that Moore has faced.

**Kellen Moore under pressure**
Opponent	Hits	Hurries	Total
Oregon	4	3	7
Miami (OH)	3	8	11
Fresno State	1	6	7
Bowling Green	0	2	2
UC Davis	1	4	5
Tulsa	2	7	9
Hawaii	3	10	13
San Jose State	5	8	13
Louisiana Tech	2	15	17
Idaho	7	8	15
Utah State	3	7	10

Moore has been hassled on about one-third of his throws in recent games. So perhaps the question should be: How much does pressure impact Moore? Or does pressure from certain areas make more difference than others?

I'd be curious to know what you think, but for the record, I think Moore is unstoppable when he has time to throw, he's great when faced with stiff pressure, and he's better than most when he's getting hit. The only pressure I've seen that makes a noticeable difference with his passing is pressure up the middle. Considering that Moch and Basped are edge rushers, even if they get close, Moore should be okay.

And now, the rest of the story on the Nevada defense

Moch and Basped are excellent defensive ends. There is no doubt about that. But what I find interesting is that even though they rush the passer with the best of them, the Nevada pass defense is horrible. A big part of pass defense is pressure on the quarterback. Does that mean that the Nevada secondary is exponentially worse than your average 119th-ranked secondary?

Against the run, Nevada is significantly better. Don't blow off their good rush defense stats as a consequence of opponents abandoning the run to play catch-up. Case in point: The Wolf Pack held Fresno State's Ryan Mathews to 35 yards on 8 carries before he left with a concussion in the second quarter.

A lot will be written about how nothing compares to the Nevada rushing attack, but I would argue that the same can be said of Boise State's ground game. The misdirection, handoffs, and movement when the Broncos run the ball rivals that of any other college football team for uniqueness, effectiveness, and big-play potential. If Boise State executes, I think they can run effectively against Nevada. But it won't be easy. Would you give the Broncos the edge?

Other factors

Some Boise State receiver will be open. Most WAC offenses have one or two great receivers who can really hurt a defense. Boise State has, what, four? Five? If Nevada chooses to focus on Pettis and Young, then Kirby Moore and Kyle Efaw can do plenty of damage in the wide open spaces that the Wolf Pack leave. Avery out of the backfield is a threat. No one can stop the quick screens and hitches to Young and Pettis. It seems like no matter how you look at it, the Boise State wide receivers win the matchup against the Nevada secondary. And it is not that close.
The focus on Garrett Pendergast. Against San Jose State, Pendergast struggled to block the Spartans' second-best defensive lineman, Adonis Davis. He'll probably have the matchup against either Moch or Basped, so it will be interesting to see if the Broncos leave him on an island or give him help. Advantage: Nevada.
Turnovers for touchdowns. Two pick-sixes were the only things that kept Nevada in the game last year when the Broncos visited Reno. Kellen Moore made a mistake against Louisiana Tech, and it cost the team a touchdown and a blowout. If the Broncos get up on the Wolf Pack on Friday, perhaps the only thing that could save UNR is a quick score off a turnover.
Fumbles from center. I thought we were done with that. BAD WORDS.
Boise State's advantage on special teams. Year in and year out, the Broncos have excellent all-around special teams. Year in and year out, Nevada does not. While the Wolf Pack are certainly improved, they are not Virginia Tech. It would appear that Young and Martin might get a couple cracks at kickoff returns, Wilson could get his hands on a few punts, and Brotzman could be called on in big spots. At the very least, Boise State needs to use its advantage on special teams to win the field position battle.

Your turn

I know there are plenty other factors to watch for on Friday night, so what ones did I not mention? What will you be watching? Can the Boise State offensive line control Nevada's defensive ends? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:30:19 -0000

You had to wait an extra day for it, but you have to wait a day less for the actual game, so that balances out, right?

Image via the Reno Gazette-Journal

Offense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Offense

Close S&P: 0.802 (National Rank: 52nd)
Close Success Rate: 52.5% (14th)
Close PPP: 0.28 (97th)

Rushing Success Rate: 57.9% (7th)
Rushing PPP: 0.35 (37th)
Rushing S&P: 0.929 (14th)

Passing Success Rate: 43.5% (39th)
Passing PPP: 0.16 (115th)
Passing S&P: 0.592 (102nd)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.942 (37th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.974 (16th)
SD Passing S&P: 0.324 (96th)

Passing Downs S&P: 0.509 (92nd)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (64th)
PD Passing S&P: 0.506 (97th)

Red Zone S&P: 0.609 (116th)

Q1 S&P: 0.916 (36th)
Q2 S&P: 0.655 (89th)
Q3 S&P: 0.911 (35th)
Q4 S&P: 0.882 (27th)

1st Down S&P: 1.024 (12th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.664 (88th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.678 (77th)

Line Yards/Carry: 3.41 (22nd)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 7.5% (108th)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 0.0% (1st)

(Here's your reminder that these are not "+" numbers, meaning they are not adjusted for strength of schedule. It's pretty hard to do that when a team's only played two games. This is important to remember when looking at the UNR defense especially, and in all it's a reminder that these numbers should not be taken 100% at face value. That said, these are per-play measures, so they will still tell you infinitely more than simply "Team A is averaging ___ yards per game," or something like that.)

Even if you don't have a clue about S&P and don't care to have a clue, a quick perusal of these rankings paints a pretty quick, clear picture of Nevada and where it has struggled. We've all heard about how poorly Nevada has played this year, but in reality they've only performed poorly in certain circumstances. In Standard Downs (1st downs, 2nd-and-5 or less, 3rd-and-3 or less), the Wolf Pack rushing attack has been just about as good as it was supposed to be. At least, they've been as efficient as they were supposed to be. It appears that teams are reining them in pretty well, and with a pretty pathetic passing attack, it makes sense why. If defenses don't have to even acknowledge the passing game, they can gang up on the run.

And really, that has been the major issue for Nevada this year. Maybe Colin Kaepernick is trying too hard to make plays, maybe the play-calling has been poor...bottom line is, two games into the season Nevada has no passing threat whatsoever. Getting back home and relaxing a bit (if it's possible to relax in what has become a pretty anti-Ault atmosphere) could help, but at this exact moment they've proven nothing.

Quarterback

Kaepernick's rushing ability, combined with his skill on passing downs, made Nevada's offense a major threat to score at pretty much any moment in 2008. But they didn't score at any moment. Why? Because they weren't the best at staying out of Passing Downs. It doesn't matter how good you are in Passing Downs--your odds are still better in Standard Downs, and the more Passing Downs you face, the more likely you are to fail even if you pull off a few great drive-saving plays. The Standard Downs success must improve.

Colin Kaepernick: 37-for-61 passing, 400 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 6.6 yards per pass, 108.0 QB Rating. Also, 17 carries, 63 yards, long: 17.

The Standard Downs success has not improved. That said, it hasn't really regressed either--Nevada's Standard Downs S&P has fallen from 0.966 to 0.942, which is relatively negligible in the end. The problem is, the Passing Downs that were a bit of an issue are a complete and total debacle this year. Their Passing Downs production has fallen 32% thus far, and in 61 overall pass attempts, Kaepernick has thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions. As Missouri fans learned with Brad Smith, if opponents aren't scared of the pass, they can shadow the run a bit more, and though Kaepernick is still capable of making plays with the defense focused on him, he's simply not going to make as many plays.

Should the Passing Downs struggles be blamed on Kaepernick? The receivers? The coach? I haven't seen a single second of either Nevada game, so obviously I don't know for sure. I do know that Nevada left about 17 points off the board against Notre Dame and blew multiple scoring opportunities, which means that a) they did in fact create scoring opportunities, and b) they (Kaepernick included) shot themselves in the foot eventually. I also know that Kaep's completion percentage has gone up, meaning there might be an issue with receivers not being able to actually make a tackler miss and get downfield. Obviously we'll see tonight what was the cause and the struggles will be sustained now that they're back at home.

Running Back

Few teams in the country are more experienced at running back than the Wolfpack will be in 2009. Vai Taua rushed for 1,521 yards in 2008 (6.4 per carry) as a sophomore, and he will return as the #1 guy. But meanwhile, #2 man Luke Lippincott was recently granted medical hardship year and will return in 2009 having rushed for 1,420 yards in 2007 before being sidelined with a knee injury. They have 633 career carries, pretty good for a 1-2 combination. Then, #3 man Brandon Fragger brings an extra 800 career rushing yards (and 22 receptions) to the table.

Vai Taua: 32 carries, 209 yards, 6.5 per carry, two touchdowns, plus five catches, 42 yards.
Luke Lippincott: 9 carries, 52 yards, 5.8 per carry

Clearly they've been holding up their end of the bargain. Again, Nevada has been relatively efficient in terms of moving the ball on Standard Downs. It's what happens when the RBs are stopped for a short gain that is the problem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Removing the 115 catches, 1,761 yards, and 12 touchdowns that Marko Mitchell and Mike McCoy brought to the table last year, all that's left is Chris Wellington (42 for 632 and 6 TDs), TE Virgil Green (13 for 136, 1 TD), and Arthur King (10 for 96). The Wolfpack have a lot of hope pinned to redshirt freshman Brandon Wimberley, who had a wonderful year on the scout team and looked good in the spring. If he and Wellington can approximate Mitchell and McCoy, the Nevada passing attack may be good enough to keep defenses from keying on the run.

WR Tray Session (So.): 12 catches, 137 yards, 11.4 per catch.
WR Brandon Wimberly (RSFr.): 9 catches, 140 yards, 15.6 per catch, 1 TD.
WR Chris Wellington (Jr.): 6 catches, 49 yards
TE Virgil Green (Jr.): 6 catches, 37 yards

Aaaaand that's it. Only four WR/TEs have caught passes thus far, suggesting little depth, and only one of the four is averaging more than 11.5 yards per catch, suggesting little explosivness. Again, it's early, and one good game could completely change perceptions (just look at Florida State, described as "on fire" on an ESPN commercial this morning, when seven days ago they were on the ropes after almost losing to Jacksonville State...perceptions change in milliseconds), but for now this unit has done nothing to alleviate the major concern for this offense heading into 2009, which was that nobody would be able to replace Marko Mitchell as the go-to, big-play threat. Wimberly may be well on his way, but it's still early in his first season on the field. An even bigger problem, though, is apparently depth.

Offensive Line

For [Mizzou] to hold Taua and Fragger to just 76 yards on 20 carries was extremely impressive, as was Mizzou's holding the overall UNR attack to just a 0.713 S&P. Unfortunately for Mizzou, their own defensive line is a lot less experienced in 2009, while Nevada's offensive line should be as good or better. Their 62 returning career starts rank them third in the WAC, and they've got 2-3 all-conference candidates in Alonzo Durham, Mike Gallett, and gigantic John Bender. We're all high on the threesome of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter; well, Durham and Gallett will make up one of the better pairs of tackles Mizzou will face this year.

The O-line appears to be holding up its end of the bargain, at least to an extent. With a running quarterback, it's impossible to glean much from Sack Rates. Have they protected Kaepernick really well on Passing Downs (leading to 0 sacks), or is Kaepernick either evading the rush or making throws too quickly? Are defenders backing off and trying to contain Kaepernick instead of coming straight at him? Is an awful Standard Downs sack rate the sign of poor protection, or is Kaepernick staying in the pocket far too long, looking to make a play? The OL has done well in run-blocking, and I thought they'd be pretty good heading into the season, so I'm going to assume that they've at least been decent in the first two games. Either way, I'm a lot more comfortable with Missouri's defensive line and a little less sold on Nevada's offensive line. At worst, I think this matchup ends up being a draw.

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Defense

Nevada: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

A BTBS look at the Nevada Defense

Close S&P: 1.066 (117th)
Close Success Rate: 52.4% (116th)
Close PPP: 0.54 (118th)

Rushing Success Rate: 53.3% (111th)
Rushing PPP: 0.30 (80th)
Rushing S&P: 0.830 (106th)

Passing Success Rate: 51.4% (114th)
Passing PPP: 0.84 (119th)
Passing S&P: 1.353 (120th)

Standard Downs S&P: 0.969 (108th)
SD Rushing S&P: 0.839 (95th)
SD Passing S&P: 1.244 (114th)

Passing Downs S&P: 1.011 (117th)
PD Rushing S&P: 0.531 (69th)
PD Passing S&P: 1.672 (120th)

Red Zone S&P: 1.537 (119th)

Q1 S&P: 1.028 (115th)
Q2 S&P: 1.002 (107th)
Q3 S&P: 1.033 (112th)
Q4 S&P: 0.862 (97th)

1st Down S&P: 1.010 (115th)
2nd Down S&P: 0.993 (111th)
3rd Down S&P: 0.924 (106th)

Line Yards/Carry: 2.95 (78th)
Standard Downs Sack Rate: 3.7% (71st)
Passing Downs Sack Rate: 6.3% (71st)

Oy. Nevada's best ranking anywhere on this list is 71st. Now...again...Notre Dame has a very good offense (or at least they did before Michael Floyd went down--we'll see now), so a strength-of-schedule adjustment will help the Pack here. But still. There's bad, and there's bad, and I think Nevada's going to get the italicization treatment.

One other disclaimer: Nevada's only played two games, so the two long passes to Michael Floyd of 70 and 88 yards could be, by themselves, skewing these numbers. But being that we thought the secondary would be a concern heading into the season, and being that Missouri's WR corps has looked quite good for 2.5 games this year (they didn't in the first half against Bowling Green), this is still obviously a positive sign for Mizzou.

Defensive Line

To say the defensive line is the strength of the Nevada defense is a major understatement. As sophomores, ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Mach combined for 36 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks last year. They both return, as do backups Daniel Agaiava and Ryan Coulson, who combined for another three TFLs in limited time. Now, it should be noted that Nevada registered no sacks on Chase Daniel last year, not even a QB hurry. Basped did manage 1.5 TFLs, but Chase Daniel was not touched all game, and while Daniel and his senior pocket presence are gone in 2009, the Mizzou offensive line should be as good or better.

Kevin Basped: 2.5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 pass break-up
Dontay Mach: 9.5 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 QB hurry

Mach's held up his end of the bargain, but Basped has been underwhelming so far. Tackles Nate Agaiava and Zack Madonick have been serviceable, combining for 7.0 tackles and 2.0 TFL. In all, though, Nevada mas managed just two sacks in two games. It's no wonder the Wolf Pack is apparently considering sending the house at Gabbert instead of dropping seven into coverage like Bowling Green--they probably can't get in Gabbert's face without doing so.

Linebackers

Gone is rock solid Jonathan Mauga, and into the starting lineup (probably) move Brandon Marshall (8.5 of 33 tackles went for loss, another high %) and big Mike Bethea. Looking at the stats, you pretty quickly see that Nevada's LBs play quite close to the line of scrimmage, which is great for defending the run...and not so much defending the pass. It puts a lot of pressure on the secondary, and in 2008, the secondary didn't respond too well. What about 2009?

Mike Bethea: 12.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack
James-Michael Johnson: 11.5 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 QB hurry
Brandon Marshall: 8.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 pass break-ups

If there has been a strength on this defense, then the LBs would probably be it. They are making plays just like they did last year. Again, though, a) Nevada has managed just two sacks, and b) the secondary has been repeatedly roasted.

In all, if there's a bright spot to Nevada's defense, it's that they've racked up 13.5 tackles for loss, mostly against the run. If Derrick Washington isn't running well, and they can stop him in the backfield enough, Missouri will be forced into Passing Downs. In Blaine Gabbert's first true road game as a starter, Missouri wants to avoid Passing Downs at all costs.

Secondary

The good news for Nevada is, their safeties are ball hawks. Jonathon Amaya had four picks in 2008, and Mo Harvey added three from a backup role. The bad news is, as I've already repeatedly mentioned, when they didn't make the big play, they were giving up one. Amaya and #1 CB Antoine Thompson are both seniors, as are Harvey and likely backup CB Cameron Bayne. There is experience here, but pressure will be on sophomore Isaiah Frey and a batch of redshirt freshmen trying to break their way into the rotation. Nevada clearly wants to attack with their front seven, meaning they need skill, smarts and speed from the secondary (but really, who doesn't?). Their smarts will improve with experience, but...speed? They apparently need some.

I was going to put some individual stats here, but...it's nothing good. Nevada has intercepted zero passes and broken up only five (the secondary accounts for only two of them). They're giving up 12.7 yards per pass, which is insanely high. Take away Floyd's two bombs, and the average is 9.3, which is still terrible. How terrible? SMU was worst in the country in this category last year...and they gave up just 9.0 per pass. Bad. REALLY, REALLY bad.

In all, Nevada's only hope is what I mentioned above--stopping the run enough to force Mizzou into Passing Downs and hope for some bad decisions from Gabbert. Having witnessed the first half of the Bowling Green game, I know that that strategy holds at least a small chance of working, but...eesh. That secondary is just terrible.

Special Teams

Brad Langley's a decent punter, but they don't return a dangerous return man (though one might materialize, I guess), and they'll feature a new kicker, who might or might not be good (you never really know in advance). In a game full of interesting matchups--Nevada seemingly having the advantage on the ground, Missouri in the air--things could swing on special teams play, and neither unit has a distinct advantage here.

Punt Returns Rank: 58th
Net Punting Rank: 44th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 33rd
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 112th

Field Goals: 0-for-1
PATs: 0-for-1

So...Mike Ball (five returns, 32.8 average) is a pretty good kickoff returner. That is at least a bit of a concern since Missouri is only 82nd in the country in Opponents' Kickoff Returns. Other than that? Um, not very good stuff from Nevada here. And yes, Nevada has attempted only one PAT in two games (they went for two on their other two TDs versus Colorado State)...and they missed it. It's been a comedy of errors for Chris Ault's Wolf Pack so far this year.

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Three Keys to the Game

Circumstances

We discussed this on Saturday's podcast. Looking at statistics, results, recruiting rankings, previous head-to-head matchups, whatever you like--it's pretty clear that Missouri is and has been a better football team than Nevada. But that won't really matter tonight if Missouri is overtaken by circumstance. You've got a young quarterback making his first out-of-state start (and for that matter, you've got a team with almost 30 frosh/sophs on the two-deep playing really far away from home for the first time). You've got altitude. You've got a team that has gone from simply being motivated by revenge against Missouri to being motivated by a desperate need to make something (anything) positive happen. You've got a two-timezone trip west. All of these things are working in Nevada's favor.

And that's all that's working in Nevada's favor at the moment. Missouri is a solid passing team playing against a god-awful pass defense. Their biggest concerns on defense (secondary) are neutralized by Nevada's biggest concern on offense (passing). Nevada's whole program is on the verge of being turned on by its fanbase. You get the feeling that if Missouri actually starts strong for once, this one will be in the bag by the second quarter. But Missouri isn't a strong-starting team. And they haven't encountered a situation like this before, at least much of the current personnel hasn't. Get past the circumstances of the moment, and Missouri wins the game. Easier said than done.

Passing Downs

I mentioned this above. Nevada wins this game by forcing Blaine Gabbert into making mistakes he hasn't made yet. Those will almost certainly come in Passing Downs. Minimize the number of Passing Downs Gabbert faces, and you minimize the risk of mistakes. That means a) good running, especially early in the game, b) no drops, and c) no penalties. You want the Nevada crowd to get into the game, and the Nevada team to get its confidence back? Face a lot of 3rd-and-9's and see what happens. Again, Missouri is the better overall team here, but this is still a dangerous game because of what Missouri could do to Missouri.

Tackling

Tackle well, shadow Kaepernick, don't give up big gains, and you give your young offense more margin for error. Nevada's big-play potential just hasn't made an appearance yet this year, and they might need Missouri's help in breaking out.

Really, all three of these keys are tied with two themes: brains and fundamentals. Don't lose your heads, don't make silly mistakes, and you probably win this game. Or at least you force Nevada to play really well to win, and they haven't done that since early-November of last year.

Prediction

I'm more nervous about what Missouri is going to do in this game than Nevada. We've seen this situation a thousand times in college football--the underdog home team is desperate for a breakthrough win, and they probably need some help from the favored road team to get it done. But if the favorite does them some favors early, then confidence and momentum can lead the underdog to a win. It annoys me because if Missouri does lose this game, I know we'll see the Tim Griffin's of the world immediately breaking out the "Same Old Missouri" talk, when really a) Missouri has had about one true letdown game (Iowa State 2006) in the last 4+ seasons (I don't count OSU and KU of last year because they were both solid teams, and I don't count New Mexico in 2005 because...well, I'm pretty sure UNM was actually better than Missouri in 2005), and b) every team in the country has had at least one letdown game in that time. Old perceptions die hard, I guess, but if Missouri loses this one, it won't so much be "same old Missouri" as "team that's simply too young not to face some setbacks." At least, that's the situation in my own opinion.

The numbers say Missouri by 5.6 points in this one. Honestly, I don't see that happening. I either see Missouri winning big (17+), or Nevada winning a tight one. But I am made the fool when I go against the stats, so we'll say Missouri wins 34-28 in this one.

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the Nevada offense, and signs pointed to a pretty stout unit, moving from stout to dangerous if a big-time receiving threat emerges. Today we'll look at the defense--can they make the stops necessary to get Nevada a big win over a BCS school?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 101.8 (#61)
Success Rate+: 115.2 (#15)
PPP+: 89.3 (#88)

Standard Downs S&P+: 101.1 (#57)
Passing Downs S&P+: 95.1 (#78)

Redzone S&P+: 99.7 (#61)

Q1 S&P+: 103.6 (#49)
Q2 S&P+: 105.63 (#51)
Q3 S&P+: 95.7 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 98.8 (#62)

1st Down S&P+: 97.7 (#70)
2nd Down S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
3rd Down S&P+: 96.4 (#71)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 106.9 (#45)
Rushing SR+: 124.5 (#7)
Rushing PPP+: 89.2 (#89)

Standard Downs: 120.9 (#17)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#71)

Redzone: 124.2 (#17)

Line Yards+: 125.3 (#7)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 99.2 (#63)
Passing SR+: 109.8 (#26)
Passing PPP+: 89.7 (#82)

Standard Downs: 91.7 (#88)
Passing Downs: 95.9 (#74)

Redzone: 89.8 (#83)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.5% (#45)

It doesn't take long to decipher what the strengths and weaknesses of the Nevada defense were in 2008. Good success rates suggest lots of stops near the line of scrimmage, which suggests strong line play. Poor Points Per Play (PPP) rates suggest lots of big plays given up, which suggests poor "last line of defense" play in the secondary. The Wolfpack defense was strikingly good in terms of efficiency (success rates) and strikingly bad limiting offenses' explosiveness (PPP). Few teams have wider splits than UNR's #15 overall Success Rate+ ranking and #88 overall PPP+ ranking, and it carried over to rushing and passing stats as well.

If Nevada wants to break into the big-time, they must limit the big play better than they did in 2008. I mean, just think about how many long plays came out of the Missouri-Nevada game. They allowed eleven plays of 19 yards or more.

Derrick Washington 59-yard TD run
Jeremy Maclin 80-yard TD reception
Jared Perry 27-yard TD reception
Chase Coffman 22-yard reception
Jared Perry 33-yard reception
Jeremy Maclin 49-yard TD reception
Tommy Saunders 29-yard reception
Chase Coffman 32-yard TD reception
Tommy Saunders 24-yard reception
Chase Coffman 48-yard reception
De'Vion Moore 19-yard run

There is a strong core of talent in this defense, but most of it resides in the defensive line, and potentially the front seven. The LB corps is inexperienced but aggressive, and the secondary, while experienced, needs to improve at preventing a 15-yard play from turning into a 50-yard play.

Defensive Line

Basped was a beast in 2008, with 18.5 tackles for loss. His DL mate Dontay Mach added another 17.5.

2008 Unit Ranking: #30 in the nation (#2 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Kevin Basped (6'6, 240, Jr.)
DE Dontay Mach (6'1, 245, Jr.)
DT Nate Agaiava (6'2, 285, Sr.)
DT Chris Slack (6'5, 270, Sr.)
DT Mike Andrews (6'3, 275, So.)
DE Daniel Agaiava (6'3, 275, Sr.)
DE Ryan Coulson (6'3, 255, Jr.)
DT Zack Madonick (6'1, 285, So.)

In Missouri's first rush of last year's Nevada game, Derrick Washington went for 59 yards and a touchdown. The rest of the game, Mizzou RBs carried the ball 20 times...for 59 yards. The stats were skewed because of D-Wash's gorgeous early run, but Nevada held Mizzou to a 31% rushing success rate for the game*, and I'll be honest: for 2009, alarms start sounding in my head anytime I think of the Mizzou rushing attack grounding to a halt and the Tigers having to rely on Blaine Gabbert and the passing game. Now, make no mistake: I'm not saying I think Gabbert can't throw for a ton of yards this year and have himself a strong sophomore season--what I'm saying is, the threat of the run needs to be there. Without it, the pressure mounts on young #11. This will be BG's first true road game, and it'll come on national television on a Friday night. Missouri needs to run well, and honestly it's not certain that they'll be able to here.

* It should be noted that Washington was not 100%--he suffered a minor injury in the SEMO game the week before. But still...Nevada shut the Mizzou running game down after carry #1.

To say the defensive line is the strength of the Nevada defense is a major understatement. As sophomores, ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Mach combined for 36 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks last year. They both return, as do backups Daniel Agaiava and Ryan Coulson, who combined for another three TFLs in limited time. Now, it should be noted that Nevada registered no sacks on Chase Daniel last year, not even a QB hurry. Basped did manage 1.5 TFLs, but Chase Daniel was not touched all game, and while Daniel and his senior pocket presence are gone in 2009, the Mizzou offensive line should be as good or better.

Linebackers

James-Michael Johnson is UNR's only returning LB starter.

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#4 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
James-Michael Johnson (6'2, 220, So.)
Brandon Marshall (6'1, 230, So.)
Mike Bethea (6'3, 245, Sr.)
Kevin Grimes (6'0, 190, Jr.)
Jared Silva-Purcell (5'11, 220, Jr.)
Adam Liranzo (6'4, 220, Jr.)

In Nevada's attacking defense, James-Michael Johnson was relatively all-or-nothing. As a redshirt freshman last year, Johnson made 48 tackles...12.5 of which went for a loss, a pretty insanely high big-play rate there. He is now the anchor of the LB corps, so he will have to pretty consistently make plays of all kinds--both big plays and preventative ones. Gone is rock solid Jonathan Mauga, and into the starting lineup (probably) move Brandon Marshall (8.5 of 33 tackles went for loss, another high %) and big Mike Bethea. Looking at the stats, you pretty quickly see that Nevada's LBs play quite close to the line of scrimmage, which is great for defending the run...and not so much defending the pass. It puts a lot of pressure on the secondary, and in 2008, the secondary didn't respond too well. What about 2009?

Secondary

Jonathon Amaya had four interceptions in 2008.

2008 Unit Ranking: #72 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Antoine Thompson (6'1, 195, Sr.)
S Jonathon Amaya (6'2, 190, Sr.)
CB Isaiah Frey (6'0, 190, So.)
S Mo Harvey (6'3, 210, Sr.)
S Cameron Bayne (6'1, 180, Sr.)
CB Thaddeus Brown (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
S Marlon Johnson (5'11, 185, RSFr.)
CB Khalid Wooten (6'0, 195, RSFr.)

The good news for Nevada is, their safeties are ball hawks. Jonathon Amaya had four picks in 2008, and Mo Harvey added three from a backup role. The bad news is, as I've already repeatedly mentioned, when they didn't make the big play, they were giving up one. Amaya and #1 CB Antoine Thompson are both seniors, as are Harvey and likely backup CB Cameron Bayne. There is experience here, but pressure will be on sophomore Isaiah Frey and a batch of redshirt freshmen trying to break their way into the rotation. Nevada clearly wants to attack with their front seven, meaning they need skill, smarts and speed from the secondary (but really, who doesn't?). Their smarts will improve with experience, but...speed? They apparently need some.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #78 Net Punting, #65 Punt Returns, #64 Kick Returns

Projected Starters
K Ricky Drake (6'0, 190, Jr.)
P Brad Langley (6'0, 200, Sr.) - 34.5 net in 2008
KR Brandon Fragger (5'9, 195, Sr.) - 18.2 avg in 2008
PR Antoine Thompson (6'1, 195, Sr.) - 4.9 avg in 2008

Missouri has its own replacements to make in the special teams unit, but they might have an opportunity to win the field position battle against a Nevada unit that is a combination of mediocre and inexperienced. Brad Langley's a decent punter, but they don't return a dangerous return man (though one might materialize, I guess), and they'll feature a new kicker, who might or might not be good (you never really know in advance). In a game full of interesting matchups--Nevada seemingly having the advantage on the ground, Missouri in the air--things could swing on special teams play, and neither unit has a distinct advantage here.

Summary

The nightmare scenario for Missouri is pretty easy to put together. With Nevada's front seven close to the line of scrimmage, Derrick Washington doesn't find much running room, and Nevada forces Mizzou into quite a few passing downs, where their rush ends harass Blaine Gabbert and force rushed throws...picked off by Nevada's ball-hawking safeties. That's really the formula Nevada will try to follow all year, and they should succeed at it more often than not. Last year, Missouri compensated for this in front of a home crowd by going deep early and often.

It's encouraging to be reminded of how well Jared Perry played against them last year, but while Blaine Gabbert has a stronger arm than Chase Daniel, he won't have Jeremy Maclin burning down the sidelines this year. If Danario Alexander is 100% healthy (I think we should probably take an "It could happen, but let's not completely count on it until it does" approach), and if Jerrell Jackson continues to develop, the deep ball might be Missouri's best friend again in Reno. But it wouldn't surprise me if Mizzou goes to the horizontal passing game a lot. Guys like Jackson and Perry are agile enough to pick up 5-7 yards a pop that way, and stretching the field out like that could a) make Nevada react instead of attack, and b) open up the middle for D-Wash. But then again, I'm not a coach, so we'll see what happens.

While Illinois is probably the most purely talented team Missouri will face in non-conference play, it appears that Nevada matches up better thanks to the running game. An experienced backfield and offensive line could take advantage of a talented-but-green Missouri front four; meanwhile, Nevada might be able to make Missouri one-dimensional on offense, leveraging them into passing downs...never a positive thing with a young QB in his first road game. If Missouri and Nevada played ten times, I'd still pick Missouri to win more often than they lose, but this is a one-time-only thing, and if Missouri's flat, or if Nevada starts strong (remember, their offense got better with each progressing quarter in 2008), Missouri's in trouble.

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Projections on Friday.

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:30:04 -0000

It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!! At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
Projection #1: 19.27
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
Projection #1: 17.06
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 14.58

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends. Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 11.08
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
Projection #2: 9.53

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 15.32
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball. Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

Special Teams

Nevada K Brett Jaekle is pretty decent. He missed two FGs last week, but he went 16-for-21 last year and is a decent option. New punter Brad Langley has done a bang-up job so far, averaging 46.9 yards per punt. One problem, though: in two games, Nevada's had a punt blocked and a punt returned for TD. You don't want to have weaknesses in your punting game when you come to Columbia. The return game for Nevada has been more or less a wash this year so far--Dwayne Sanders hasn't had many opportunities to return punts, and Brandon Fragger's been decent but not spectacular in a handful of kickoff returns. Two problems: 1) Nevada's settling for too many FGs (I'll address that below), and 2) Jeremy Maclin returns punts for Mizzou.

And once again, Mizzou has Jeff Wolfert--Nevada doesn't. Never in my life have I taken a 45-yard FG for granted (KNOCK ON WOOD), but that's where we've gotten with Wolfert.

Key Players: Nevada

QB Colin Kaepernick

I hate being predictable, but you have to put Kaepernick at the top of the list. Luke Lippincott is out, and while Nevada's other RBs--Vai Taua, Brandon Fragger--are at the very least competent (Taua might eventually turn out to be as productive as Lippincott), LL's absence does put more pressure on Kaepernick to create on his own. So far he's responded with decent stats--386 passing yards, 143 rushing yards in two games--but he needs to step up his game against the best team on Nevada's schedule. Also, after committing next to no turnovers last year, Kaepernick has three in the first two games of the year--2 INTs and 1 fumble. Missouri's given up quite a few yards so far this year, but if Kaepernick is careless with the ball, Mizzou is more than capable of making him pay.

One other thing--Nevada had numerous chances deep in Texas Tech territory and wasn't able to punch the ball into the endzone, with or without Lippincott. They attempted SIX FG's against Tech, and as was discussed in the offseason, settling for FGs against Mizzou = slow death. It's up to Kaepernick to will the ball into the endzone, and he hasn't proven he can do that consistently against a decent defense yet this year.

WR Marko Mitchell

The key to keeping up with Mizzou, other than not settling for FGs, will be scoring as many easy points as possible--long plays, turnovers, etc. For the "long plays" part of that equation, it's all about Marko Mitchell. Mitchell was a fantastic deep threat last year, and this year has been more of the same so far--in basically 1.5 games against Texas Tech and Grambling, Mitchell has 12 catches for a 16.3-yard average and 1 TD. Aside from maybe a Kaepernick scramble on a broken play, Mitchell represents Nevada's best chance at easy points, and he'll have to come up big at least twice for Nevada to have a chance.

OT's Mike Gallett and Alonzo Durham

Texas Tech racked up four sacks last week. Missouri racked up 5 sacks (four from the DEs) against a mobile QB in Juice Williams. While Mizzou's blitzing has been entirely ineffective, Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are poised for a big game if the O-line--the OT's in particular--can slow them down. SEMO thrived in the "quick delivery" department, and Mizzou's pass rush was somehow held in check last week, but I don't expect that to happen again.

FS Uche Anyanwu

Anyanwu had a solid game against Tech, with 6 tackles and 1 TFL. He and CB Antoine Thompson--3 pass break-ups last week--are the biggest playmakers in Nevada's secondary, and a lot will be expected of them if Mizzou is going to be held under 5 TDs. I was going to put LB Josh Mauga here because of his blitzing prowess, but...well, until given a reason to, I just don't fear other teams' blitzes. It's all on Nevada's secondary to make plays...or at least not miss any tackles.

Key Players: Missouri

TE Chase Coffman

I'm putting him here because of what I said during the score projections. Nevada was able to bump Texas Tech's WRs and confuse Graham Harrell into a 19-for-46 performance. Aside from two plays, they held Michael Crabtree in check (unfortunately for the Wolfpack, those two plays went for 50 and 82 yards...ouch). If they choose to give Jeremy Maclin the Crabtree Treatment, they can limit his effectiveness too. Combined with tight, bumping coverage of the other receivers, you'd think Nevada would have a pretty good recipe for physically defending the spread.

Only...Mizzou doesn't mind physical. They'll just throw to Chase Coffman 12 times, and...

RB Derrick Washington

...give Derrick Washington 15-20 carries. Washington is a strong, physical runner, and he and Coffman are the two reasons I just can't really fear any specific defensive strategy.

CB Castine Bridges

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

Here's what I said about Nevada's passing game back in June:

On non-passing downs, Nevada isn't very aggressive in the passing game--their 0.865 Passing S&P is lower than the national 0.884 and disproportionately lower than a lot of their numbers compared to the national average. However, on passing downs, it appears they go deep...a lot. Their success rate isn't that much higher than normal on passing downs, but when they connect, it's a huge play. Their 0.862 Passing S&P on passing downs has got to be one of the higher numbers in the country.

Two things concern me about this: 1) Mizzou was having Castine Bridges give a massively soft cushion on SEMO WRs last week. Maybe that changes this week, but if not, Nevada's horizontal passing game on non-passing downs could find all sorts of dink-and-dunk success against the Mizzou secondary, namely Bridges. So that's why Bridges is on there.

As for Garrett/Howard...well, if it's a passing down, chances are good that Mizzou's blitzing. And if they're blitzing, chances are good that they're sending William Moore. So that leaves Delstin Garward as the last line of defense...a role not filled very capably against Illinois.

Summary

Nevada is capable of scoring some points, and they've got enough physical guys on defense that they can wear you down if you let them. Their combination of dink-and-dunk prowess on non-passing downs and deep-ball prowess on passing downs has me a bit worried. I think Nevada will put up some yards. But let's go with the Star Factor here.

Nevada's Stars

Colin Kaepernick
Marko Mitchell
Joshua Mauga (potentially)

Missouri's Stars

Chase Daniel
Derrick Washington
Jeremy Maclin (the receiver)
Jeremy Maclin (the kick returner)
Chase Coffman
Colin Brown
Stryker Sulak
Ziggy Hood
Sean Weatherspoon
William Moore
Carl Gettis
Jeff Wolfert

Missouri is giving up too many yards, and I expect that to continue somewhat on Saturday. But they've just got too many playmakers. I think the BTBS projection (41-17) may be just about dead on with this one, but until someone holds Mizzou under 52, I'm going with the trend*.

* Two times = trend, right?

My Prediction: Missouri 52, Nevada 17.

Poll

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

27 votes

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

61 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Brad Langley

Opponent preview: Can Boise State slow down Nevada's pass rush?

Nevada at No. 6 Boise State

Nevada's season-to-date

Nevada on offense

Nevada on defense

Nevada special teams

Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped in the spotlight

Boise State pass protection in the spotlight

And now, the rest of the story on the Nevada defense

Other factors

Your turn

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Nevada Preview

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.