SB Nation - Jeravin Matthews

At least I was absurdly close on my predicted score.

Rodger Sherman — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:31:38 -0000

Penn State's Eric Latimore (56) feeds on Northwestern's Dan Persa (7) during the fourth quarter of an NCAA football game in Evanston, Ill.

Browse more photos »

Seriously. 35-14? Man. I don't think I can ever predict NU to lose again if I'm that creepily accurate.

Moving on.

I think that game should end any speculation that Mike Kafka isn't a superb quarterback. Let it be noted, and marked down for Northwestern football history, that the 2009 Northwestern Wildcats offense is essentially just Mike Kafka. He's had his ups and downs, and he's got a tendency to come through with those weird picks from time to time, but, yesterday was shades of '08 Minnesota for a quarter and a half. No offense to C.J., who was also a good QB, but I think Northwestern is probably in a better place right now if Kafka had been starting since 2006, even if he clearly wasn't ready when he took the field back then.
Now on to Dan Persa: you can't be mad at the guy. All things considered, coming out in your first real college football experience and going 14/23 against Penn State and busting out some 20 yard runs is pretty good. Unfortunately, he isn't ready to be a quarterback at this level, and it's sad that he looks bad for coming in in that exact moment. The offense sputtered because he's not Mike Kafka, but you can't blame him: that's a terrible situtation for anybody to be in. If Persa learns to be a little more comfortable back there (and learns how to consistently hit guys on five yard routes accurately), I'm not concerned for the future. But as of now, he seems unsure as to how to recognize where the pass rush is at any given time and he's 90% on our dink-and-dunks, and because those are such short plays, you have to be 100% on them. It would've been nice to see him show a little bit of the confidence in his arm he showed in the last five minutes of the game for his entire time in the game, but, hey, you win some, you lose some by 21 in the final quarter.
No complaints with the NU defense. With Ricky Weina et. al. starting against a No. 12 opponent, the fact that we were somewhat dominant defensively for three quarters is really all you can ask. I'm not sure whether you attribute the complete falling apart in the last quarter to the fact that a) we sort of gave up after the first one b) Penn State adjusted to our defense and exploited it or c) our offense couldn't get a first down and left the de on the field for like 20 straight minutes, but whatever it was, I'll take it as a tragic anomaly from what was generally a good defensive day.
I mean, think about it: our defensive line constantly had pressure on Daryll Clark. Evan Royster and the vaunted Penn State ground game didn't bust out a run of more than five or six yards for the entire first three quarters, and generally didn't get past the line. And only on their touchdown drive were they consistently passing downfield. And then came the flood.
I wrote about this after Michigan State: it's absurd that there's nobody on this team capable of catching a kickoff. It doesn't have to be somebody fast back there. It just can't be Jeravin Matthews or Stephen Simmons. I'm not sure what happened to these guys, because they were both pretty good kick returners in years past, and Simmons busted out a good one today, but you need guys who can do the most basic aspect of the returning of kicks: the catching of kicks. I'd rather have an o-lineman back there catch it and sprint four yards to the 12 than a speedy RB who might bust out a 30 yard return, but might also drop it and have it picked up by the other team one in every ten times.
I thought I'd never see Stefan Demos complete a pass after the sideways sprinting 10-yard shovel pass of glory against MIami of Ohio, but the fates had different plans. Demos' heroics under fire will go down in kicker/punter history as one of the finest fluke plays in bobbled snap history. Demos turned what would have been Penn State 1st and goal and a play that would've ended the game early for the Cats into an NU first down. We who are about to watch you continue to kick rugby style punts salute you.

Anyways, I'm out of things to say, and deeply sad. If Kafka's back next week for Iowa...

Matchup of the Week: Northwestern Offense v. Michigan State Defense

grahamfiller10 — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:36:38 -0000

Two installments of MOTW's have preceded two disappointing Michigan performances. Two weeks ago, bad scheming in the secondary allowed Michigan State to drive for two early touchdowns against the porous Wolverine defense. Last week, Tate Forcier was concussed during a horrendous performance in Iowa City.

Who will be cursed by my MOTW this time? I chose to take a look at the Wildcat offensive attack and how they will scheme against an improving MSU defense. Northwestern''s schedule has been cake so far - which is why we predicted a 5-1 start.. But the 4-2 Wildcats cannot continue struggling against cupcakes ('Cuse, Miami OH, Eastern Michigan) and expect to suddenly become an improved team against the Spartans.

NW's Spread Scheme: Expectations, Results

As Chris from SmartFootball wrote on TRE last week:

SmartFootball: Well Northwestern is a true spread team and has traditionally done a nice job with all the typical short spread passes that can be completed at a high clip...

I know a lot of Northwestern fans haven't been too pleased with the team's early struggles, but Kafka's passing efficiency has to be encouraging. He is averaging over a full yard more per attempt this year than C.J. Bacher did last year (7.2 compared to 6.0).

Kafka has followed in the steps of Basanez and Bacher, completing a Big Ten leading 67% of his passes. The effective short passes have also been damaging on third down, as the Wildcats have the second most effective 3rd down % in the Big Ten. On the flip side, the shotgun draws that sprung Tyrell Sutton so many times have been flat. Northwestern is 10th in the Big Ten in rushing at a paltry 122 yards per game.

Are the Wildcats doing anything different scheme wise? Not particularly. Kafka has run more in the last two games (18 carries against Purdue,15 against Miami OH), although not with the success people may have expected. Because of his tremendous athleticism, Fitz has been attempting to unleash him via draws, option runs, or outside quarterback sweeps. The NW Spread still attacks from a 3 wide or 4 wide set and Kafka has the potential to make every throw, including:

The quick outs

The five yard sideline outs

The bread and butter crossing patterns, both short and deep

I remember Northwestern running some great wide receiver screens and halfback screens in the preceding years, but I feel like there has been less of that this year. Maybe someone can correct me or fill me in on this.

MSU Defense: Maligned Early, Repairing Image of Late

If we want to talk about improved defenses, let's talk about the Spartan unit under Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi, weary of his inexperienced secondary, decided to play some soft coverage against Central Michigan and Notre Dame. This backfired tremendously, as Narduzzi failed to realize that both Dan Lefevour and Jimmy Clausen can throw six yard outs and dump downs to running backs or tight ends. Let me give you the play by play on the game winning CMU drive:

D. LeFevour passed to P. Cotton to the left for 9 yard gain
D. LeFevour passed to A. Brown to the left for 5 yard gain
D. LeFevour passed to A. Brown to the left for 8 yard gain

The Spartans cornerbacks began the play 5-7 yards off the LOS and retreated more when the ball was snapped. Needless to say, the underneath routes were open.

After a 1-3 start in which the defense allowed 29, 33, and 38 yards, Narduzzi finally rolled up his cornerbacks and decided to take away bubble screens and quick throws. It worked - Forcier and Williams/McGee were both forced to throw deeper into coverage. Jerel Worthy (a probable Freshman All-American selection at DT) began destroying offensive lineman, using a great swim move and some quick feet to help stuff the run games of both Michigan and Illini. The front four, passionless early, came around in a big way in Champaign-Urbana, sacking the Illini quarterbacks six times last week.

The Spartan 4-3 with soft zone coverage was a bad scheme. The Spartan 4-3 with rolled up corners and imaginative blitzes is a better defense.

What Can We Expect Saturday?

We predicted a 6-6 Northwestern team this year. Their schedule is so charmin' soft, I felt this was an insult from TRE. It looks like we were somewhat on target, but why?

LTP pointed out that NW seems to lack the killer instinct that separated the Wildcats from mediocre teams in 2008. Most of you didn't watch the Miami OH game last week, but that game exhibited a penalty laden NW squad that got pushed around by the worst in the nation RedHawks. Kafka threw high all day in good, non windy conditions, while the run game was hampered by bad blocking.

Here is my advice for Fitzgerald's game planning:

- Run early and if it fails, abandon it. CMU and Michigan couldn't run on the Spartans, thanks to the solid LB core led by Greg Jones. But when teams turn to throwing against the Spartans, things usually open up.

- Tell Kafka to get rid of the damn ball. His fumbles have come at the most inopportune times and he's been sacked second most in the Big Ten.

- Figure out early if Michigan State has rolled up cornerbacks onto the LOS. If they haven't, pound that short out and force them up.

Sparty, backed by a 14 point Vegas line and a rowdy crowd of 70k, is the obvious favorite. But Narduzzi and Dantonio must show a willingness to continue forcing quarterbacks to throw over linebackers and cornerbacks, instead of falling back into the soft zone. Michigan State has faced two ridiculously accurate quarterbacks and Kafka will be no different.

Preview: Michigan State vs. Northwestern

LVS — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:36:02 -0000

[Sorry for the delayed posting. --LVS.]

Hey! Let's celebrate a big comeback which ended up meaning absolutely nothing in one of the worst MSU football seasons ever!

Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
SPARTAN STADIUM, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON, ESPN2
WEATHER: PARTLY CLOUDY, 42-45 DEGREES

After a tremendously disappointing start to the season, in the last two weeks your Spartans have effectively turned things around, and at least left open the possibility for this to become a successful season. What the 3-game losing streak does mean, though, is that there is no more margin for error, and a game like Saturday's -- at home, against a less-talented team -- has gone from "should win" to "must win," lest our rehabilitated 3-3 record become 3-5 by next Saturday night. Northwestern has had quite a bit of success recently in East Lansing; they've won the last two, including a game in 2007 which stands as our poorest performance under Mark Dantonio. Our upperclassmen will remember that game too clearly to be looking ahead to Iowa. The line on this game, I believe, currently has MSU giving 12.5 points; I think that's awfully generous, but for our purposes, fortunately, beating Northwestern is more important than beating the spread. While we may not do the latter, we will do the former.

NORTHWESTERN SO FAR:

1 blowout against an overmatched 1-AA opponent (Towson);
1 very close call against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Eastern Michigan);
1 sleepwalk-type win against an overmatched 1-A opponent (Miami);
1 halfway-decent road win (but against a team which seems to find new, heartwrenching ways to lose each week -- Purdue);
1 home loss to Minnesota, an understandable defeat to a team that's roughly equivalent to MSU in talent;
1 completely inexcusable close road loss to Syracuse (Syracuse!).

Normally, it'd be difficult to say that a 4-2 record for Northwestern is disappointing, but LTP certainly is, and with some justification:

On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

Still, 4-2 after 6 games certainly puts Northwestern in a position to play in a good bowl if they're able to pick up a key win or two from here forward. Presumably, Saturday would be one of the games they've circled on their calendar; despite the rough start, this is not a team that has reason to throw in the towel.

Mein bratwurst has a first name, it's "Zeke," mein bratwurst has a second name, it's "Markshausen" . . .

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON DEFENSE: . . . hold onto your hat; Northwestern is going to want to play fast. The Wildcats ran 93 offensive plays against MSU last season, and will frequently forego huddling up between snaps. In that regard, it's fortunate that we've already played Michigan: while the offenses aren't exactly the same (Northwestern's much more of a passing team than Michigan is), the Wolverines' frequent no-huddle drives should have prepared us for the pace NU would like to play at.

Northwestern's run game has been a disappointment. Take it away, LTP:

We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Sippin' on Purple reports that Simmons is listed first on the NU depth chart for Saturday, so they "might actually see some semblance of a running game this week." Simmons certainly seems to be an improvement over the other options:

RUSHING	GP	Att	Gain	Loss	Net	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/G
Fields, Arby	6	53	210	20	190	3.6	4	25	31.7
Schmidt, Jacob	6	45	161	2	159	3.5	1	13	26.5
Simmons, Stephen	3	33	153	0	153	4.6	2	14	51.0

Limited sample size, of course, but compared to the other two, Simmons has picked up an extra yard per carry. Furthermore, QB Mike Kafka is a threat with his feet; he has 229 positive rushing yards through 6 games, and exploded into the Big Ten consciousness with a 217 yard (!) rushing effort at Minnesota last year. He's obviously reined in the rushing a bit so far this year, but given MSU's historic difficulties with rushing quarterbacks, I wouldn't be shocked to see some designed keeper plays.

Kafka's been more average passing the ball: he's currently 8th in the conference in passing efficiency (130.04, well behind Kirk Cousins' 141.81, and against lesser competition, of course), and is completing 67% of his passes, with 5 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. LTP says that Kafka "has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep"; in my mind, that reinforces the perception that Northwestern is a team which lives and dies on the short passing game. We had tons of trouble with that type of attack against CMU, but we seemed to learn from those mistakes against Michigan.

Not surprisingly, NU's wideouts don't seem to be the deep-threat type: the top receiver is Zeke Markshausen (but can he catch frisbees in his mouth?), who has 34 catches, but for only 348 yards (10.2 average) and no touchdowns. He's not big (5'11", 185), nor fast, and he is white and a walk-on, so I believe he fully qualifies to be called "gritty" and "Welker/Chrebet-like." Drake Dunsmore (sounds like he should be sailing off of Cape Cod, no?) is the second leading receiver, and has remarkably similar numbers: 25 catches for 270 yards (10.8 average) and one touchdown. He's bigger, though: 6'3", 235. LTP also says to keep your eyes on . . .

I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB whoseemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

. . . so, yeah. Pay attention to those guys, too.

For our defense, expect to see us play a slew of different linebackers, in an attempt to keep fresh through Northwestern's breakneck pace. Chris Norman figures heavily in the plans:

Because the Spartans are expecting more of the same, players such as true freshman outside linebacker Chris Norman better plan to have an expanded role. [ . . . ]

"The other reason is we’re going to have to play multiple people. One of Northwestern’s goals is to wear you down. But when we have athletes like Chris, who can give guys like (starter Brandon) Denson a break, we’re going to use that."

Norman already has one start, against Notre Dame, to his credit, but only six tackles. Junior Jon Misch, who backs up Eric Gordon on the other side, also figures into Tressel’s plans.

Also worth noting: NU has allowed 14 sacks through 6 games against poor competition. Their offensive line is not good. We have 10 in the past two games. We could easily make that 15 or 16 through three games by tomorrow night.

YTMND.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE IS ON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is your quarterback and Larry Caper is your running back. Sounds pretty nice, eh?

LTP says that the Northwestern secondary is the team's best unit:

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy.

. . . but statistics seem to show that they're a very average unit, albeit one that forces a lot of turnovers. They've been giving up 218 yards per game so far this season (almost 12 yards per completion), and have allowed 10 touchdown passes. But, they do have 10 interceptions, including 3 in the past 3 games for the aforementioned Sherrick McManis (who got the fluffy treatment from Teddy Greenstein in yesterday's Chicago Tribune). I'll suggest the same thing that I did before the Michigan game:

But as to the ~~Donovan Warren~~ Sherrick McManis thing: yeah, given our depth at wide receiver, we should just write off whomever he's covering and go elsewhere.

Furthermore, LTP said that Northwestern is already worried about the deep threat posed by Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham (and I'll throw in Keshawn Martin for good measure); this can't help:

The degree of difficulty increased for Northwestern on Thursday night with the announcement that veteran starting safety Brendan Smith will not play at Michigan State because of a thumb injury.

Smith -- one of only eight players in NU history to be named a co-captain in repeat seasons -- has started 38 games, including the last 19. He also is the leading punt returner for the Cats with an average of 6.6 yards, fourth best in the Big Ten.

With Smith out, Brian Peters will likely make the third start of his career.

Yeah, let's try to take some shots downfield, plz.

Against the rush, Northwestern has been better: they've allowed 716 yards through six games (119 per game), and only 3.48 yards per carry. So, this shouldn't be like it was against Illinois, where (at least in the first half, when we were making a full effort) we could hand the ball off and pretty much be guaranteed somewhere between 6-8 yards. This should be a better test for the offensive line, and for Larry Caper; if we can get solid contributions from the running game, 1) we're going to win this game, and 2) it portends good things for next week, when Iowa will be an even sterner test.

Finally, even though Corey Wootton has been more or less a non-factor so far this year, Northwestern still has 19 sacks on the season, including 4 for linebacker Quentin Davie, and 2 each for LB David Arnold, safety Brad Phillips, and defensive linemen Vince Browne, Corbin Bryant, and Kevin Watt. (The substantial number of sacks from the linebackers and secondary suggest a blitz-happy defense.) We lead the league with only six sacks allowed, and this would be a good week to keep that up, given the Cousins' slight remaining injury, Nichol's injury, and the desire not to burn Andrew Maxwell's redshirt. Honestly, I think we should be all right: the only two players who have really hurt us consistently on the rush are O'Brien Schofield and Brandon Graham, and they're the two best defensive linemen in the conference. If Wootton was healthy, he'd be in that class too, but nothing suggests that he'll be a major threat on Saturday.

THE OBLIGATORY PREDICTION: Wherein I cheat by posting something that I've already written!

The team's play has improved, and Kirk Cousins' return should be a major spark for the team. One thing you didn't mention that may be a factor: I understand that NU's offensive line has been a problem, and that plays right into our hands. MSU had 10 sacks and 18 TFLs against Michigan and Illinois, and the interior of our defensive line has been blasting into the backfield right on the snap.

Honestly, I'm shocked that the line on this game is this high. Everyone remembers what happened the last time NU came to East Lansing, so I'm sure the team and the coaching staff aren't going to be looking past this game. (Many fans, on the other hand, may already have moved their thoughts onto the Iowa game, so the stadium atmosphere may be somewhat lacking.) I think it should be an entertaining game, like most in this series have been, but our defense has really stepped up the past two weeks and I think that trend will continue. 27-17, MSU.

Your thoughts?

Conversations with the Enemy: Talking Northwestern with Lake The Posts

LVS — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:12:54 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

2 months ago: Northwestern's Corbin Bryant, right, sacks Minnesota quarterback Adam Webber during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game in Evanston, Ill., Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

I traded a few questions about Saturday's game with Lake The Posts, the original (but no longer only!) Northwestern football blog. My answers to his questions will be posted on his site shortly.

Below, I'm in bold:

Despite its 4-2 record, Northwestern hasn't been receiving a whole lot of accolades for its performance in the first half of the season. The Wildcats lost to Syracuse, barely scraped by against Eastern Michigan, and didn't get the blowout most expected against Miami last week, but the win at Purdue clearly was huge for the team's bowl hopes. Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the first half of the NU's season?

I'm not. Most of Wildcat Nation is not. We were missing four defensive starters in the Syracuse team and our lack of depth showed immensely. This has been the most bizarro season since 2001 at Northwestern. On the heels of our 9-3 2008 season buoyed by a stellar D, all signs pointed to the best D since 1995 and it has been an adventure to say the least. Our O-line was expected to be the strength of the offense with question marks at the skill positions. Mike Kafka has been a pleasant surprise with his passing and our WR corps is stellar, yet we lack a true Dell or Cunningham-like gamebreaker. Our line play has been weak and our rushing game non-existent. Essentially everything we thought would be great is not and almost vice versa. 5-1 was what we expected as a realistic worst case scenario as fans through those soft 6 games. It has been disappointing to say the least.

More, after the jump.

Corey Wootton was expected to be one of the best defensive performers in the conference, but many have said that it looks like he's still being hampered by his ACL problems. How has he looked this season, and how important is his play to your defense?

He hasn't been much of a factor. We all feel for the kid as he was a terrorizing gamechanger last season, and he played one series last week due to an ankle injury. When he was "healthy" he simply has seemed tentative. He's clearly not "back". He did draw some early season double-teams, but he's not the All-American he was expected to be. Not even close.

When most non-Northwestern fans last noticed Mike Kafka, he was busy rushing for about 874 yards in your wild win at the Metrodome last year. Is he still a major running threat? More generally, what can we expect to see from Kafka? ( . . .resisting the urge to make obvious literary jokes . . . )

Great question. Fans have been squawking about our lack of using Kafka as the RB. He's the best short yardage "back" we have, yet we're rotating a slew of RBs who haven't made much of a difference. We're at a loss as NU ALWAYS has a stellar RB. Mike has a great arm, yet we never stretch the field and really go deep which I believe hampers our rushing attack. You can expect to see 40+ passes from him and when he's on - watch-out. He makes much better decisions than CJ [Bacher --ed.] did, but he does tend to hold on to the ball a tad too long. He's slowly been running more each week. Most of us would be happy to have him throw 50+ this week and rush 10-12 times.

Northwestern, like MSU, has had to rework its running game this season after graduating a multi-year starter at tailback. It seems like NU has taken the running-back-by-committee approach, and statistics indicate that
the results have been fairly meh. Is that the case?

You're being generous. We've stunk. The original starter Stephen Simmons has been out most of the season with an injury and true frosh Arby Fields early-on appeared to be the guy who would get the ball and become our next 4-year RB. However, our line has been horrid and our RBs have yet to show they can elude defenders. Jacob Schmidt, a short yardage back and walk-on turned schollie this year is a feisty guy, but good for 3rd and 2 and not much more. He's got great hands and turned heads with an amazing catch last week though. I can't remember our run game being so much of a detriment.

Unlike in previous years, the current MSU offense is built around the passing game, and we've been fairly successful at it this season. How has the Northwestern secondary looked so far?

Our secondary was banged up and still is. It is our strongest unit though. Sherrick McManis has made some incredible picks and is finally at the lockdown mode we expected him to be after missing a couple of games due to injury. Safety Brendan Smith left last week's game, but his replacement, Brian Peters played extremely well. Jordan Mabin at the other corner is the real deal and can hit hard and Brad Phillips has been up and down, but seemst to have regained his '08 form. It is a solid unit when healthy. We've had a slew of INTs and fumble-inducing hits in the past two weeks and the 'Cats will need to win the TO margin game to beat Sparty in my mind.

Is there anyone on either side of the ball for Northwestern who MSU fans probably aren't aware of, but should keep an eye on?

Zeke Markshausen - a walk-on WR turned scholarship guy has become our clutch receiver. He's been fantastic. As mentioned, we've got 6-7 WRs that are solid. I think Sidney Stewart might be our biggest threat (had 7 rec last year vs Sparty mostly when game was out of hand). However, I'm a big fan of Jeravin Matthews a tweener WR/RB who
seemingly makes big things happen on every touch ,yet we don't use him NEARLY enough.

Finally, your score prediction please:

Michigan State 30 NU 24 - As usual, this one comes down to who has the ball last...

Thanks, LTP, and for the next three days, I hate you!

2-1 vs. 2-1: THA RECKONING

Rodger Sherman — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:58:07 -0000

More photos » by Kevin Rivoli - AP

LOUD NOISES! Yeah, everybody's using this photo. But it's such a good photo. (AP Photo/Kevin Rivoli)

Browse more photos »

So, tomorrow, the Gophers and Wildcats play. If you'd like a good preview, read The Daily Gopher, who have one, or check the SBNation game page, where all articles on the game are posted, basically, go anywhere else. . If you'd like a poorly put together preview by someone who knows exceedingly little about football, well, you're in the right place.

When we last spoke, Northwestern was a team in serious, serious trouble. I think it's a winnable game - in fact, I think it's a game we should win - but the way Northwestern has been playing the last two weeks certainly isn't a confidence builder. Anyway, here's my gameplan:

Offense: Mike Kafka hopefully scared the doo-doo out of Minnesota with last year's game in the dome. Hopefully, the Gophers are overpreparing for a whirling dervish who scrambles as much as he can and makes silly, ill-informed throws. Because that's what Mike Kafka was last season against Minnesota, and it's pretty much the opposite of what he was last week.

Against Syracuse, Kafka showed he can be a smart, hyperaccurate dinker-and-dunker for about 59 minutes, and he devastated Syracuse's defense from the pocket, only occasionally busting out the run. Minnesota's defense isn't vastly improved from Syracuse's defense, so we need the same exact thing from Mike (minus the pick), hopefully, this will be easily attained against a defense more worried about him taking off than throwing. I have a funny feeling the "run towards the line of scrimmage to draw defenders, then passing" trick will wreak havoc on the Gophers defense.

No offense to Jacob Schmidt, who has way outperformed my hopes for him at the beginning of the year - he's been a really good short-yardage back and was actually a passable first option last week - but he's not a starting running back, at least not now. Unfortunately, with Simmons out and Jeravin Matthews just returning to the lineup this week, that's what he'll be. Our running back corps shouldn't be more than a change of pace at any point in the game - we should be passing like 75 percent of downs. That being said, we need these guys, especially Matthews, to be active in the passing game as dump-off guys.

I know this is a rather simplistic preview of the offense, but quite frankly, how this game goes is pretty much entirely dependent upon Mike Kafka. If he has a bad game, we have no other offensive options, basically.

Defense: Cripes.

Well, Minnesota has a guy named Eric Decker, and we have to guard him. Double team. Triple team. Octuple team. Whatever it takes. Send Demetrius Dugar out there with a chainsaw if you gotta. (the team can handle the 15-yard penalty, it's really up to whether or not Dugar is willing to serve a life sentence.)

It does sound like we'll be getting Sherrick McManis back this week, so that's a major, major plus. He might be able to do Decker justice. Then again, players on our team have had issues with returning from injuries this year - we're still waiting on Corey Wootton to take the bus ride back from San Antonio, and players started dropping like flies before last week's game - but it would be nice to have our 11 defensive starters healthy, which has only happened once this year.

Last week, our team was entirely allergic to tackling. Hopefully with Nate Williams - the best tackler on our team this year - back, some of that will go away.

I think this is the last week we can pull the "hey, will our defense be as good as it should be this week?" card. If we can't tackle guys at the point of attack this week, if we give up 4+ yards a rush, and we bite on every possible pump fake, and we, uhh, still can't tackle guys at the point of attack, which is important, we're going to have to acknowledge this is less of a mind-blowingly great defense and more of a classic NU defense.

People I'm watching:

The injury gods: Who will be healthy, and who will come down with an in-play bout of swine flu while guarding Eric Decker?

Mike Kafka: For obvious reasons. He's our team right now.

Sherrick McManis: Sherrick, it's you and their best player. This is what you live for.

Pick in a mascot fight to the death: Gophers: not scary. Game, NU. (Mascot death fight records: NU, 2-2, Minnesota, 1-3)

Prediction:

After the jump!

Northwestern, 38, Minnesota, 31. No defenses to see here, move along. I really, really do have faith in Mike Kafka, especially after last week's almost perfect performance and with a healthy team, I like our chances. And that's all I gotta say about that.

I'd like to hear your picks and whatnot, so I got a poll, and I got a comments section.

Poll

two team enter. one team lose. two team enter. one team lose. (pick the winner)

Minnesota

13 votes

Northwestern

21 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

Know thy Opponent 2009: Northwestern Wildcats

BoilerTMill — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:23:45 -0000

Under coach Tiller, beating Northwestern and winning our homecoming game were each regular affairs. It was only late in his tenure that we finally lost a homecoming game (2004 against Wisconsin) and a game against the Wildcats (the 2005 disaster). It is not necessarily a sign of our decline that we started losing games to Northwestern, as the Cats have become a solid team. Last season's effort, or lack thereof, however, was a sign of how far we have fallen.

On paper, both teams were relatively equal going into last season's game. What followed was one of the most uninspired days of Purdue football in the last 15 years. We dropped passes. We missed tackles. We missed assignments. The only thing we did was run the ball effectively, as we wasted a 170+ yard, two touchdown effort from Kory Sheets. I don't have a problem losing a game to a good team like Northwestern. I do have a problem when we get blown out because of lack of interest.

That game was really the one that sealed our losing season. Losses to Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Oregon were tough, but not unexpected. Not only did we lose at Northwestern in a game many thought would be a win, we lost badly. This season's contest could be equally important the other way. Likely we're going to be coming in at 2-2. Anything worse and it is already over. Anything better, and we will have pulled off a pretty major upset. At 2-2, however, the Northwestern game will be a must win to have any bowl hopes.

2008 Record: 9-4

Bowl result: Lost to Missouri 30-23 OT in Alamo Bowl

Blog Representation: Lake the Posts

Series with Purdue: Purdue leads 49-26-1

Last Purdue win: 10/27/07 at Purdue 35-17

Last Northwestern win: 10/18/08 at Northwestern 48-26

Last Season for the Wildcats:

If not for a shocking loss to Indiana, the Wildcats probably would have played in a New Year's Day Bowl. The Wildcats won all of their non-conference games for the first time in more than four decades and finished 5-3 in the Big Ten. Aside from the Indiana loss, the other three losses were to ranked teams in Michigan State, Ohio State, and Missouri. The conference losses weren't that competitive against Michigan State and Ohio State, but the Alamo Bowl loss to Missouri was an exciting game decided in overtime.

Northwestern loses some playmakers on offense, but there is enough talent to ward off a huge step back like has happened in the past. A relatively easy slate of Towson, Eastern Michigan, at Syracuse, and Minnesota leads off the schedule before they come to Purdue. Northwestern is this year's lucky recipient of the Big Ten's schedule gift, missing Michigan and Ohio State for the next two seasons. Their two toughest games are at Michigan State and at home against Penn State. Indiana is sandwiched between those two.

Northwestern offense:

The Northwestern offense faces the same challenge that we must face in having to replace its top quarterback and top running back. Tyrell Sutton ran for 890 yards and six touchdowns last year while C.J. Bacher threw for 2,432 yards and 17 scores. Sutton missed the final four games of the regular season, while Bacher missed the Minnesota and Ohio State games. That leaves Mike Kafka as the leading returner in both the rushing and passing categories.

Kafka is a lot like Joey Elliott in that he has waited his turn to play as the full-time starter. Unlike Elliott, he has starting experience. Not only did Kafka start both games that Bacher missed last season, He started the first four games of the 2006 season before injury. He had 505 yards passing and a touchdown against five interceptions in 2006, but was much better in both games in 2008. Against Minnesota he only threw for 143 yards and two touchdowns against two picks, but his running was the story of that contest. He ran for a school record (for a quarterback) 217 yards in a game that was decided by a late pick six. He finished with 321 yards on the ground, and as Lake the Posts said Monday, he may be a better decision maker than Bacher. For Northwestern to have a successful season he must improve on his career 3 to 8 touchdown-interception ratio.

Mike Kafka is a threat on the ground, but he will need to improve his passing accuracy in 2009.

Stephen Simmons will likely step in as the top running back, replacing Sutton and Omar Conteh. Simmons ran for 178 yards and two touchdowns on 62 carries in 2008, so he has some experience. Simmons is a quick back, but had an ankle injury that limited him for most of the year. He is a junior, so he is experienced in the system. Alex Daniel and Jeravin Matthews should also see some time in the backfield.

Northwestern lost its top four receivers, much like us, when Sutton, Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward all graduated. In their place are Andrew Brewer (18-145-0) and Jeremy Ebert (15-161-2) as the top two returning players statistically. Tight end Josh Rooks is also likely going to get involved in the offense more as a combination fullback/tight end. In Northwestern's offense the Wildcats like to spread the ball around to many different receivers. Demetrius Fields is a promising redshirt freshman with speed that will be one of many players that needs to step up.

The main thing that will help Northwestern's offense with so few returning playmakers is its offensive line. Four starters come back from a line that gave up 18 sacks and paved the way for 1,800 yards rushing. It is a young line too, with just one senior. Desmond Taylor, Doug Bartels, Al Netter, and Benn Burkett all return to a line that has every projected start under 300 pounds. That is very rare in the Big Ten, but it is helpful to Northwestern's hurry-up style of offense. They are a group more inclined to be athletic and quick rather than giant road-grinders. They really only need to give Kafka enough time to through and holes to run through.

Northwestern defense:

This will be Northwestern's strength, especially early on as so many new playmakers get used to the scheme. By game five they should be a pretty good unit that we might have some difficulty moving the ball against. I know I keep stressing the point, but we have to make a committed effort to stay with the running game. We ran well against Northwestern last season, and the first four teams we face (with the exception of Northern Illinois) are better against the pass than the run.

Northwestern could struggle against the run again if defensive end Corey Wootton isn't fully healthy. Wootton had 10 sacks last season, but injured his knee in the Alamo Bowl against Missouri. He is a big defensive end at 6'7", 265 that is deceptively quick. He is the rock of the line, and at this time next year he will likely be making a lot of money in the NFL somewhere. The rest of the line could struggle if Wootton isn't 100%. Tackle John Gill, who had four sacks and 44 tackles overall, was lost to graduation. Corbin Bryant returns as a starter at the other tackle position, but Adam Hahn and sophomore end Vince Browne will be first-time starters along the line. This is a big defensive line with everyone over 6'4" and 270 pounds.

Quentin Davie is the only returning starting among the three linebackers, but with a former All-American linebacker as a head coach I doubt the Wildcats have unprepared players taking over. Davie was pretty good at getting into the backfield with 9.5 tackles for loss last season from the strongside position. Nate Williams will be the middle linebacker with starting experience from the second half of last year. He finished with 66 tackles and a sack despite not playing much in the first half of the season. Ben Johnson is a bit of an unknown player at the third linebacker spot. He only had 6 tackles as a cornerback last season, and will need more production at linebacker. Aaron Nagel, a Notre Dame transfer, will likely provide key depth.

Northwestern's secondary has nearly as much experience as our own, so it should be pretty good once again. Three seniors in Brad Phillips, Brendan Smith, and Sherrick McMannis will be joined by solid sophomore Jordan Mabin at the four defensive back positions. Phillips led Northwestern with 109 tackles and three interceptions. Smith had two interceptions, both of which he returned for touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was the game winner in the closing seconds at Minnesota. McManis will be their shutdown corner in his third year as a starter, and he may be one of the best in the Big Ten. This will be one of the better secondaries we will face all season, and it should do well enough to allow the front seven to play strong against the run.

Overall, Northwestern's defense wasn't very strong at creating turnovers...except against us. The Wildcats created 25 turnovers in 13 games, but five of those came from our very generous offense. That is a testament to just how badly we played in Evanston.

Northwestern Special Teams:

Northwestern must find a new kicker to replace Armondo Villarreal, who hit on 20 of 25 field goals last year but missed a crucial extra point in the bowl game. Punter Stefan Demos, who averaged 39 yards per kick, will try to pull double duty, but that is a tall task for any kicker as we found out last year with Chris Summers. Demos is excellent at dropping kicks inside the 20 with 49 such boots over the past two years, but he has yet to do field goals. Incoming freshman Jeff Budzien might be a better choice as a kicker. He is one of the top kicking prospects in the nation with a big leg.

Stephen Simmons was the top kick returner last season, but wasn't a huge threat with a 22.1 yard average. Brendan Smith was similar on punt returns with a 7.9 yard average. McManis should also see some work on returning kicks. Northwestern had one of the top kickoff coverage teams in the nation last year, holding teams to less than 19 yards per return.

Intangibles

To me, Coach Pat Fitzgerald is a highly underrated coach. He took over under the most difficult of circumstances at a place where academics always come before football and he has had quick success. The guy has an energy that few coaches can match, and I personally think that big time schools who think they can eventually lure him away from Northwestern are dreaming. The guy bleeds purple. He is beloved for his contributions as a player. He is a legend that I think will never leave his alma mater. Him leaving Northwestern would be as big of a betrayal as Matt Painter leaving our basketball program.

Game Outlook

Northwestern will likely take a slight step back this year. A huge reason for their success last season against us was that we played an absolutely pathetic game. We were disinterested and didn't take care of the ball. I don't think Coach Hope will let that happen again. If you even those things out, I think we can compete with Northwestern on a level playing field. If we're going to a bowl game in 2009 this is a game we likely need to win. It is critical that we win games at home that are winnable. This could be a very low scoring game as two inexperienced offenses will go against to experienced defenses. Turnovers will likely be the key, just as they have been in the last two games in this series. In 2007 Northwestern was sloppy with the ball in the first and fourth quarters, leading to a big win for us. The reverse was true last year and Northwestern won.

Prediction

I continue to press that this team will be better than most people think. In that case, we have to win games like the Northwestern game. I think the defense will have a big day against them and we will get a critical win for our bowl hopes. Purdue 20, Northwestern 14

Stats-ish Preview: Northwestern

Beauford — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:13:26 -0000

Basketball = 2-0. Woo.

There is still football to be played, however, as the Wolverines go up against the Wildcats of Northwestern [insert Wildcat roar here] this Saturday, Noon ET, at Michigan Stadium. Any momentum gained from the Minnesota game is on the line Saturday; a win means we have somewhat of a hot-streak going into the 'shoe. A loss destroys the aforementioned streak, any momentum gained, and probably some sort of household appliance in the home of Beauford. If you're having trouble getting amped for this game, just think of my toaster. Her life is in your hands, Wolverines.

In Mortal Danger

Via www.lakewoodconferences.com

Northwestern's Offense:

It's looking more and more like starting quarterback CJ Bacher is going to play after all:

11/12/08 - QB C.J. Bacher (hamstring) is practicing again this week with hopes of returning to the lineup. Coach Pat Fitzgerald says he'll regain his starting job once he's healthy. The official depth chart lists the QB job as Bacher or junior Mike Kafka.

Still injured, however, is most of Northwestern's running back crew, leaving Sophomore Stephen Simmons as the probable starter against Michigan. Also seeing time against Michigan will be former receiver turned running back Jeravin Matthews.

Without starting running back Tyrell Sutton, who seems unlikely to return with a wrist injury, the Wildcats moved Stephen Simmons to a starter in their loss to Ohio State on Saturday. Against Michigan this weekend, Simmons will remain a starter, but Fitzgerald has made another shift.

He will move wide receiver Jeravin Matthews to running back to help back up Simmons with Jacob Schmidt and Scott Concannon. Matthews played multiple positions, including running back, because of his speed and athleticism in high school.

Given Michigan's track record in dealing with players who have hastily changed positions mid-season, I'd say that this Matthews character is destined for a good day.

Michigan will be facing a Northwestern offense that features a 3rd string running back not named "Sutton" and a dinged-up (at best) CJ Bacher who, according to the aforelinked article, is still having trouble "opening up and running." This all bodes poorly for the Northwestern offense, which wasn't exactly setting the world on fire prior to the nasty string of injuries. Northwestern is averaging a rather "meh" 370 yards/game this season, good enough for a 55 ranking nationally, and 5th in the Big Ten.

Bacher to date has thrown 11 interceptions to 10 TD's, and has only rushed for 283 yards on the season. That's good for around 30 yards per game after sacks are adjusted. It's safe to say that while Bacher is mobile, he isn't exactly Juice Williams. Bacher dealing with an injury that expressly limits his mobility is even less Juicy. If Bacher starts, expect to see more of his arm than his legs which, given the amount of INT's thrown this year, could be a good thing.

If Kafka starts, however, it's a whole other ballgame. Kafka has shown promise with his legs, but has poor pocket-awareness. He will probably take advantage of what Michigan gives him on the ground, but will be equally flustered by this "roaming Okie" blitz package we've seen recently. If he plays, I expect some exceedingly frustrating picked up 3rd and longs combined with some exceedingly satisfying sacks. Over the two games that he's seen significant time in, he's averaged about 20 attempts per game. Expect to see a lot of the ground attack if Kafka is starting.

FWIW, I kinda think Bacher is going to get the start, but will have a short leash if the injury limits him in any way.

Michigan Defense:

What to write, what to write...

Here's what we kinda know:

1) Schafer has "dumbed down" the defense to a base nickel package, employing an "okie" front on obvious passing downs. Okie basically means that there are 3 down linemen, and a bunch of guys behind them who kind of wonder around showing blitz, or not showing blitz, then maybe blitzing. Sound confusing? That's what it's supposed to do to the offensive line and quarterback. It worked great against Minnesota, and will probably get about as much action against a similar offense in Northwestern. By the way, I'm not a coach, so if I'm waaaay off base on what the Michigan Okie front is designed to do, by all means, correct me in the comments.

2) The defensive line is probably going to be good again. They're the only unit who has shown consistency on the defensive side of the ball. I think, given Bacher's immobility and a 3rd stringer at RB that they will be primed for a big day.

Here's what we don't know:

1) The secondary had a good/great day against Minnesota. It's the first one of those they've had as a unit. Predicting what they will do against Northwestern seems foolish given the inconsistency. Having 5 DB's on the field at once, with Harrison playing a hybrid "wolf" position (half LB, half S) in the cover 2 seems to have struck a chord with this particular group. We shall see.

2) Linebackers are inconsistent. Still.

I dunno. You try to sort it out.

Given the Bacher injury/Kafka inexperience, and the 3rd string running back thing combined with the new-found simplicity of the defense, I kinda expect them to have an ok day. Ohio State held a Kafka-helmed Northwestern to only 294 yards of total offense and 10 points last week. I expect Northwestern to gain something closer to their season average of 370 YPG, but nothing exceeding that. Their injuries will limit them, and Michigan's defense appears to have found something against Minnesota.

Michigan Offense:

Per Rivals, and via Mgoblog:

Redshirt sophomore Nick Sheridan will get another opportunity to add to his second chance, head coach Rich Rodriguez reported today. Sheridan led the Wolverines to a win over Minnesota and will start again Saturday against Northwestern ...

So, there you have it. Additionally, it looks as if Minor will be limited/inactive with an injured body:

Michigan running back Brandon Minor has yet to practice this week due to shoulder, rib and wrist injuries.

Head coach Rich Rodriguez said Minor was "doubtful" on Wednesday.

Head, shoulders, knees, toes, wrists, and ribs. It's all hurt. As I mentioned in my less-informative preview, the rushing onus falls onto a combination of McGuffie and Shaw against Northwestern.

As I mentioned before, one of the things I've been most impressed with has been McGuffie coming out of the backfield as a receiver. I expect there to be even more of that mentality now that the Minor-Rage offense is not available. Shaw has been equally impressive; on his 23 attempts he's averaging 6.8 YPC.

The 800 lbs. gorilla in the corner, however, has on a #8 Jersey and plays quarterback. He may not be death anymore, but uh, Steve Young he ain't. To date, he's completing 56% of his passes, and has 5 INTS to his 2 TD's. Any optimism that stems from the fact that Bacher may not be starting for Northwestern should be immediately nullified by the fact that Sheridan is starting for Michigan.

That's not to say that he can't win us this ballgame. Last week, I thought Nick did several things very, very well. When he scrambled he kept his eyes downfield. He throws a screen pass well. He kinda looks like Brian Greise. However, I was terrified on a number of deep balls that hung, and hung, and hung. Minnesota didn't make him pay for those.

Here is Sheridan against Minnesota:

Player	Att	Comp	INT	Yards	TD
Sheridan	30	18	0	203	1

Here is Sheridan against everyone else:

Player	Att	Comp	INT	Yards	TD
Sheridan	54	29	5	262	1

Sheridan was 60 yards shy of matching his entire seasonal output to date against Minnesota, which included playing time of some sort in 5 games. Did Sheridan turn some sort of corner? Maybe. My guess is that he wasn't as bad as his numbers suggested, but I think a regression towards the mean is more than likely against Northwestern.

Reasons for this include the fact that Northwestern will likely be more prepared after seeing what he did against Minny. For example, those hitches to Mathews and Stonum probably won't be there every time, and Stonum probably won't make a SportsCenter top-10 one handed catch for a crucial first down. Add into this the fact that Sheridan likely won't have Minor-Rage offense to lean on, and you see why there is reason for concern.

Speaking of which, I was very impressed with both Stonum and Mathews against Minnesota, and am guessing they will be featured, along with quarkback Odoms, prominently in whatever passing attack Michigan can muster.

Bottom line for our QB: Against Minnesota, Sheridan managed to at least be smart, and was helped by some terrific catches. If he can pull another 0 INT day, Michigan will likely be in good shape. If he starts throwing INT's, it's fail time.

Feagin will likely see time in the same capacity that he was used against Minnesota. I think that he's under instructions to throw if it is absolutely wide-there-is-nobody-standing-within-15-yards open. Rodriguez, at this point, would rather take a loss of yardage on a keeper than have Feagin try to force something. I think Feagin will get an opportunity to throw the ball this weekend; whether he actually does is up for debate.

Another positive note is that Molk will be starting, despite some worry about a toe injury suffered against Minnesota.

Northwestern Defense

As a unit, Northwestern is giving up around 350 yards per game. That's very middle of the road, and good enough for a 58th nationally, and 7th in the Big Ten. The defense is solid, if not spectacular. If there is one area they excel in, it's playing behind the LOS. Northwestern is ranked 2nd in the conference in both TFL's and Sacks. They are aggressive, and will likely try to pressure Sheridan into making bad reads and throws. Michigan's offense mitigates this aggression slightly with screens and draws, but I expect Sheridan to have to make that all-important decision to just tuck it and take the sack on more than one occasion.

Corey Wootten is among the conference best in TFL's and has 7.5 sacks on the year - good enough for 5th in the conference. The line will have their hands full with him. I wish I had more to tell you here, but I don't. Northwestern's defense does nothing really spectacularly, but nothing really poorly either. Their 3rd down conversion against is solid - 65% of the time they get off the field.

Overall, I expect that Northwestern's defensive gameplan will be to tackle behind the sticks and get Michigan into obvious 3rd and long situations. From there, they should be able to pressure Sheridan enough to maybe force him to make a bad throw. On a play to play basis, Northwestern's D should hold up rather well, but I expect they will be susceptible to the big play by becoming over-aggressive. A few Shaw draws or Feagin keepers will probably go for 30+ yards as aggressive LB's and secondary run themselves out of the play.

Special Teams

Lopata: Check

Mesko: Check

All systems go.

Prediction

I kinda think that Michigan wins this one, actually. Let's make it 17-13.