SB Nation - R.J. Washington

Big 12 Freshmen I Look Forward To Seeing In 2009

Beergut — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 09:33:01 -0000

There are always a few 5-star, can't miss recruits who are the talk of the nation around signing day, but end up redshirting during their freshman season, so we're left to wait a year before seeing if they are worth the hype. The usual players to merit a redshirt are offensive linemen, because time to develop in the weight room and learn the system will do them some good, but every once in a while, a stud skill position player is redshirted.

Jermie Calhoun of Van HS is one such player. A 5-star RB recruit, Calhoun was a Parade All-American in HS before redshirting with Oklahoma last season. I am interested to see if he cracks the two-deep this season, and what, if anything, he does when given a chance to play.

Another 5-star stud from Texas who signed with OU but ended up redshirting was Keller Fossil Ridge DE R.J. Washington. Washington was also a Parade All-American, and was ranked the #2 defensive end in the nation by Rivals, and the #13 recruit overall. Given that Auston English, Frank Alexander, and Jeremy Beal are returning at DE, it will be interesting to see if Washington cracks the depth chart.

texas didn't have any five-star students in their 2008 recruiting class, but they did have two intriguing prospects. DeSean Hales was a four-star ranked multi-purpose back coming out of Klein Oak High School. texas has moved him to WR during his redshirt season. It will be interesting to see how Hales does at receiver, because I think they'll feature him at the B-receiver position. texas' other intriging prospect is former Austin LBJ wide receiver D.J. Grant. texas' coaches moved Grant to TE during Fiesta Bowl practices, and I'm wondering if he'll see significant action at Y in 2009. Anyone else want to see if Tre Newton is the answer to texas' problems at RB?

Oklahoma State has a stud RS freshman RB in Kye Staley, a 4-star recruit who was considered the top football player in Oklahoma in 2008. Staley was recruited as an "athlete", but will now try to break into a lineup that includes Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston at TB.

Nebraska's only 5-star stud recruit is also the only 5-star recruit to ever come out of the state of Nebraska, OT Baker Steinkuhler. Since arriving in Lincoln, Steinkuhler has switched to the defensive side of the ball, and is now listed at DT. He should be fun to watch this season, if only to hear announcers refer to his father, former Outland Trophy winner Blake Steinkuhler, every time he is on television.

These are only seven redshirt freshmen I am interested in seeing during the 2009 football season; who will you be watching for?

OU Football Spring Preview Part Five: Spring Game Wrapup & Standouts

dishingoutdimes — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 23:34:16 -0000

Previous Spring Preview Issues

Part Four: The Defensive Back Seven
Part Three: The Trenches (Offensive and Defensive Lines)
Part Two: Offensive Skill Position Players
Part One: Who Is and Isn't Back, Exciting New Players

All of the previews on the different units and players are complete, and you can see those by clicking on any of the links above. We'll start previewing the schedule soon, and also start putting forth some special spring preview pieces that you should enjoy. But before that happens, we're going to do a final wrap-up of the spring game, because it's the only actual football game we can use to project what might happen this year.

First we'll give a shout-out to Tim Bond who had a nice piece wrapping up the spring game on BleacherReport.com. It's a good read.

Obviously, the Spring Game needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The offense was pretty plain vanilla, and it seemed like they only ran about 10 different plays over and over again. The guys on defense aren't dumb and one might expect that they knew what was coming. Still, there are some important points to draw out of the performances, and so this will be more like a scouting report than an actual performance critique.

All of the good stuff after the jump...(click the link below)

The Passing Game

Sam Bradford was his usual self, completing 11 of 13 passes for 97 yards and a TD, without throwing an interception. What was more impressive about this performance than anything was that the TD came on an 11 play, 71 yard scoring drive into the wind. Add to that Brent Venables' frequent blitzing and Sam was under some heat a lot.

Still, it was hard not to notice that the receivers weren't getting a whole lot of separation. Ryan Broyles was Bradford's favorite target, and he finished with 4 catches for 59 yards. Broyles will probably start with Adron Tennell whose only catch was the 23 yard TD from Bradford. Broyles and Tennell definitely seem to be the most polished receivers - they ran the best routes and got the most separation.

Mossis Madu operated out of the slot for most of the game. To tell you how that went, he finished with no receptions. He just didn't seem to be all that effective. Madu went into the backfield in the latter portion of the 3rd quarter and did better there.

Other than Broyles and Tennell, the only other receivers with somewhat impressive statistics would be Jameel Owens and Brandon Caleb. Caleb didn't work with Bradford all that much but finished with 2 catches for 43 yards. He looks like he would be a good option in the slot and may ultimately split time there with Madu. He seems to be a decent mid-range threat (10-25 yards down field) and is decent at finding holes in the coverage. It looks like they used Jameel Owens in all sorts of fashions. He finished with 3 catches for 41 yards and a TD. His touchdown was more of a possession touchdown, but they tried to hit him downfield a fair amount. He seems to be fairly versatile and is my favorite to see the field beyond just Broyles, Tennell, Madu, and Caleb.

Rounding out the receivers, a couple of observations. First, Gresham and Eldridge did not play, which has a big impact on the passing game. Second, DeJuan Miller is the other "young guy" with a lot of talent but didn't really show up in the stat line. I don't know if he can really stretch the field. At 6'5" with some decent size, he seems like he'll be a within-20-yards possession type guy. Third, James Hanna is listed as a TE but looks like a wideout. If he adds some bulk we could have the next Gresham.

The young quarterbacks did not post great stats. Landry Jones went 5 of 12 for 73 yards and 1 TD versus 1 INT. Drew Allen went 4 of 14 for 58 yards and 1 INT. Landry looked to be comfortable in the offense, and had a decent zip on his pass. He had a couple of incompletions that were just miscommunication and another couple that were the fault of stumbles by the receiver or drops. His touchdown was a nice solid bullet to Jameel Owens in between coverage. He seems like a solid backup who should be good to go in the fall with a few months of polishing. Drew, on the other hand, seems like he needs to pick up the offense a little more (not surprising for a guy who was in high school a couple of months ago). He was throwing all over the place which was a product of two things: (1) Miscommunication on routes (2) having a really live arm. Allen has a cannon, no doubt. He threw some absolute lasers. If he can harness his talent and learn the offense, he will be good.

The biggest surprise was John Nimmo, who got some playing time in the fourth quarter. He was a perfect 3 for 3 for 35 yards on a nice scoring drive that culminated in a nice touchdown pass between the coverage. Maybe he'll get a shot at third string and they'll redshirt Allen?

The Running Game

Boy, where do I start?: It wasn't pretty. Jermie Calhoun had 19 rushes for 19 yards and Justin Johnson had 14 rushes for 4 yards in extensive action in place of DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, who were inactive. Together they combined for about 0.7 yards per carry. Part of the problem was definitely the offensive line, who simply got steamrolled at times by the defensive line. They simply got pushed back. Johnson and Calhoun on about a third of their carries were hit within 2 seconds of receiving the ball - not a recipe for success. A lot of that came with the second unit offensive line. The better runs and push by the offensive line came with the first unit.

The other part of the problem was that Calhoun and Johnson didn't hit the holes with an explosion like Murray, Brown and Madu all do. That should come with time.

The best flashes in the running game came from Mossis Madu who ran 9 times for 44 yards, good for 4.88 yards per carry. Mossis certainly seems more at home running the ball. Perhaps they can run some interesting "wrinkle plays" with him in the slot.

The Offensive Line

Just a quick note on the offensive line. If everything stays the same over the summer, the starting offensive line from left to right will be Trent Williams, Brian Lepak, Ben Habern, Brian Simmons and Cory Brandon. They definitely seemed to have the best chemistry. They gave Sam Bradford the most amount of time to throw and opened up the biggest holes. The second unit offensive line simply got dominated.

Also, Stephen Good and Jarvis Jones didn't play. I haven't heard any reason why not yet.

The Defense

There were a lot of standouts here. First, some general impressions:

The incoming class of linebackers are extremely good. Tom Wort, Ronnell Lewis and Jaydan Bird all made plays. We will be extremely deep at this position.
Auston English was MIA. Not a bad idea, since he has a history of injuries in his career. No worries, he's not injured right now, at least not to my knowledge.
Quinton Carter and Keenan Clayton both came out quickly from the first unit defense. No worries there, only minor injuries.
Gerald McCoy absolutely dominated a few offensive linemen. Maybe embarrassed would be the right word.
The defensive backs got away with some pass interference penalties, but it's good to see they will be aggressive.

Mike Balogun and J.R. Bryant (both reserve linebackers) both led the unit with 6 tackles. J.R. Bryant also had a pass broken up and a fumble recovery for a TD. J.R. Bryant is a guy who hasn't seen the field a lot in his time at OU but he has great speed (kind of like Keenan Clayton). He strung out a few running plays about as perfectly as you could, and laid some big hits on people. He really impressed me.

Jeremy Beal and Frank Alexander looked really strong at defensive end. While wreaking havoc they combined for 10 tackles, 5 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. They got around the edges well, contained all of the running plays to the outside and had relentless pursuit. Add English in there, and this is a scary good defensive end rotation. Speaking of that rotation, David King and R.J. Washington, redshirted last year, both looked solid. They combined for 5.5 tackles and did a solid job on the second unit.

Rounding out the line, Adrian Taylor and Gerald McCoy looked immovable up the middle. Nobody could run the ball up the gut (even Madu), and on passing downs they got a great push up the middle. The problem they create for offenses is that McCoy probably needs a double team, but if Taylor gets left isolated, you could be in for big problems. When McCoy stunts with Beal on passing downs, especially when there's a blitz, I think he probably gets in the backfield about 100% of the time. Amazing.

All of the linebackers that played had at least 2 tackles, and many of them showed up in the stat line in other ways. The front seven of this defense is about as solid as they come and is a major reason why this team is a contender right off the bat.

In the defensive backfield, Dominique Franks was his usual self with 2 tackles, 2 interceptions (including one that he ran back for a touchdown), and a half of a sack. To be honest, I think the quarterbacks threw to Franks' side maybe 5 or 6 times total and he played for most of the game. Just goes to show you that he does something positive most of the time the ball comes his way.

On the other corner, Brian Jackson also looked pretty solid, and he was tested more than Franks. Jackson seems to be a bit better in run support. He had 4 tackles, 1 tackle for loss and a pass broken up. Rotating behind these two guys was Desmond Jackson, who was originally projected to be a backup safety. Is Jonathan Nelson injured because I didn't see him anywhere? Anyways, Desmond Jackson also looked solid with 3 passes broken up and a tackle. Expect Gabe Lynn to challenge once he arrives in the summer.

Finally, it was hard to notice the safeties much at all because the ball didn't get that deep very often. Sam Proctor started aside Quinton Carter. After Carter got yanked quickly, Emmanuel Jones was working with the first unit (surprising). Neither of them gave up huge plays, although Jones was a little late arriving in support of the Tennell touchdown. Joseph Ibiloye finished with 5 tackles showing off his speed and range (very long strides). He could be hard to keep off the field.

April 11th Sooner Sports Notebook

dishingoutdimes — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 16:12:21 -0000

So you're not a Division I caliber football player. You've always wondered what it might be like. No worries, check out this website with a bunch of samples of different offer letters from a few schools. Looks like the Gators were sticklers and made them take theirs down.

Speaking of football, the Spring Game is today! It won't be televised, unfortunately, but we'll try to get some kind of recap up later.

Right now the Sacramento Kings have the worst record in the NBA. But it's not cut and dry that they will get Blake Griffin. This thing called the NBA Lottery means that any team not in the playoffs will have a shot. It would be a major coup for the Thunder to be able to nab Griffin. They would have a lot more fan interest fast.

If you like way-early and jump-the-gun predictions, Andy Katz has his 2009-2010 Prseeason Top 25 up for men's basketball.

Here's a nice ESPN article on incoming recruit Tommy Mason-Griffin. By all accounts he seems to be a great kid with an excellent work ethic.

Big 12 Blogger Tim Griffin made OU DE Jeremy Beal the 23rd best player in the conference in his spring rankings.

According to the Fort-Worth Star Telegram, the offensive line has responded to Bob Stoops calling them out earlier in the spring. That's more than OK with me, but I'm torn between wanting to see the offense perform well during the spring game, and wanting to see the defense perform well. Thoughts?

Gerald McCoy makes a prediction for me, saying that the OU Sooners might have the top defensive unit in the country if everything comes together right. I'm not sure I'd go that far, but they'll be darn good.

Quotable

"I will tell you this, this is my fourth spring ball and I haven’t seen us break as many big plays in the spring as we have this one. I think it’s coming together well."
--Oklahoma Guard Brian Simmons

In The News

The United States is going to be bidding to host the 2018 World Cup or 2022 World Cup. Apparently Owen Field is on the list of possible venues.
The Paris Twins both got drafted. Both will be going to California. Courtney was drafted 7th overall by the Sacramento Monarchs. Ashley was drafted 22nd overall in the 2nd round by the Los Angeles Sparks.
Blake Griffin basically made it a clean sweep by taking home the Wooden Award.
The OU-Louisville Final Four game set a women's basketball ratings record here in Oklahoma City.
Bob Stoops offered a succinct but good response to the whole asterisk debacle down in Austin.

Second Hand Reports & Rumors

Looks like the highly touted defensive end prospects are working in a different order than you might suspect. Looks like right now David King is a bit higher on the depth chart than R.J. Washington.
If you've been in on the "Daniel Orton come to OU" crowd after the big debacle with Kentucky happened, the hot rumors on the internet have him staying at Kentucky or picking Kansas.
Willie Warren is rumored to be "testing the waters", as posted in this C&C Machine article. However, testing the waters basically means checking out the information on your draft status. Based on what he said after the UNC game, one has to assume he'll be back until he says otherwise.

Last Word

Here's a quick top 5 "who to watch" during the spring game, if you're going. Otherwise, I'll try to highlight these guys' performances in a recap:

Landry Jones: One has to assume Sam will go to the NFL after this year. As such, it will be important to have a good performance from Landry.
Sam Proctor: We've all seen that Quinton Carter can start at safety, but it will be important to see Sam Proctor be assertive.
DeJuan Miller and Jameel Owens: I know this is two guys, but one of these two new receivers need to assert themselves. They have great size and athletic ability and it would be nice to have them able to contribute.
The Offensive Line As A Unit: They'll be going up against one of the best defensive lines in the country. If they look competent that probably means good things.
Jonathan Nelson: We know that Dom Franks and Brian Jackson are solid, but it would be nice to see someone step into the role of "nickel back". It's also good to have depth. Nelson was a shut down corner in high school, and it would be nice to see that translate.

OU Football Spring Preview Part Three: The Trenches

dishingoutdimes — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 20:52:25 -0000

Gerald McCoy, in the process of getting "face-masked" above, will anchor a solid defensive line in 2009.

Previous Spring Preview Issues

Part Two: Offensive Skill Position Players
Part One: Who Is and Isn't Back, Exciting New Players

Two opposite stories in the trenches for the Sooners this season. The offensive line lost 5 players, 4 of them starters. The only starter who is returning is OT Trent WIlliams. This isn't to say that OU didn't recruit solid offensive linemen, but they will need to mature as a unit and get some game experience before they would get anywhere close to as good as our offensive line was last year.

Meanwhile, the defensive line lost two rotation guys, and no regular starters. Additionally, there will be some added depth and DT Gerald McCoy is back despite having the potential to be a high NFL draft pick.

The good stuff after the jump...(click the link below)

Offensive Line

#51 JR Brian Lepak, 6-4 285, transfer from Colorado State University
#59 SO Donald Stephenson, 6-6 275, Blue Springs H.S. in Blue Springs, MO
#61 rFR Ben Habern, 6-4 275, Liberty Christian H.S. in Argyle, TX
#70 JR Cory Brandon, 6-7 308, Coriscana H.S. in Corsicana, TX
#71 SR Trent Williams, 6-5 308, Longview H.S. in Longview, TX
#74 SR Brian Simmons, 6-5 304, Hargrave Academy in Raleigh, NC
#76 SO Jarvis Jones, 6-7 294, transfer from Lousiana State University
#77 SO Stephen Good, 6-5 305, Paris H.S. in Paris, TX
#78 SO Alex Williams, 6-6 300, O. Perry Walker H.S. in New Orleans, LA

JR Jeff Vinson, 6-8 350, Lackawanna College in Lancaster, PA
JR Tavaris Jeffries, 6-5 320, Coahoma Community College in Memphis, TN
FR Josh Aladenoye, 6-6 340, North Mesquite H.S. in Mesquite, TX
FR Tyler Evans, 6-5 280, Strafford H.S. in Strafford, MO

Despite losing some great talent to the NFL or graduation, the Sooners are still looking stout on the offensive line. Anchoring the line will be senior Trent Williams who will move from his position of right tackle last year, to left tackle this year. He'll be charged with protecting Sam Bradford's blind side. Not bad to have a first team All Big 12-er protecting your blind side. Backing him up on the depth chart will probably be JUCO transfer Jeff Vinson who is absolutely huge (6'8" 350). Think Phil Loadholt. If Vinson doesn't latch onto the offense fast enough, expect Donald Stephenson to be available here as well. Stephenson saw the field in 7 games last year.

At the opposite tackle position, expect Cory Brandon to open up at the top of the depth chart. He played in nine games last year, recording 16 knockdown blocks - 5 each against Chattanooga and Washington. He was on the field for 148 plays. Backing him up, and possibly competing for the starting job will be LSU transfer Jarvis Jones who had to sit last year out. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Jeff Vinson getting some real playing time over on this side given that he's a huge body like Loadholt. Lack of experience in Division I and in the OU offense could keep him behind Brandon on the depth chart though.

The left guard position appears to be locked up by Brian Simmons, who the coaches consider a returning starter basically. He's a senior, knows the offense inside and out, and has had playing time the past couple of years. He led all reserve linemen last year with 50 knockdowns and 421 plays. He has played in all of OU's games the past two years, and even started twice in 2007. Behind him, expect either big bodied JUCO guard transfer Tavaris Jeffries, or perhaps CSU transfer Brian Lepak.

At the right guard, it looks like Stephen Good will have every opportunity to earn the starting job, as he has been impressive in spring practice so far. He was a highly touted recruit and he played in 7 games last year. Competing with Good will likely be Jeffries (the JUCO transfer), and Alex Williams. Williams played in 6 games last year.

And finally, at center, it looks like Ben Habern might have the edge. He got a medical redshirt last season after playing as the backup center for 3 games. He got injured against Baylor, but before the injury he had 9 knockdowns in 9 plays. Pretty impressive, but not surprising as all the recruiting services had him highly regarded. Behind him, probably Brian Lepak, or one of the backup guards perhaps. The two freshmen may not see the field much this year unless they really impress.

It's really up in the air right now. It's hard to project the offensive line. The final starting 5 will be determined not only by talent, but by the chemistry they have. If I had to call it right now with very little knowledge, I'd say from left to right: Trent Williams, Brian Simmons, Ben Habern, Stephen Good, Cory Brandon. In any event, the offensive line has the potential to actually be quite good.

Defensive Line

DE #33 SR Auston English, 6-3 253, Canadian H.S. in Canadian, TX
DE #44 JR Jeremy Beal, 6-3 253, Creekview H.S. in Carrolton, TX
DL #53 rFR Casey Walker, 6-3 285, Garland H.S. in Garland, TX
DE #84 SO Frank Alexander, 6-4 249, Southern Lab School in Baton Rouge, LA
DT #86 JR Adrian Taylor, 6-4 295, Mansfield H.S. in Mansfield, TX
DT #89 SR Cordero Moore, 6-2 295, Horn H.S. in Mesquite, TX
DE #90 rFR David King, 6-4 240, Strake Jesuit Prep in Houston, TX
DE #91 rFR R.J. Washington, 6-4 242, Keller Fossil Ridge H.S. in Fort Worth, TX
DL #92 rFR Stacy McGee, 6-4 260, Muskogee H.S. in Muskogee, OK
DT #93 JR Gerald McCoy, 6-4 295, Southeast H.S. in Oklahoma City, OK
DE #94 JR Pryce Macon, 6-1 249, Carroll H.S. in Corpus Christi, TX
DT #96 SR DeMarcus Granger, 6-2 302, Kimball H.S. in Dallas, TX
DE #99 SO Jonte Bumpus, 6-3 226, Muskogee H.S. in Muskogee, OK

DE FR Jarrett Brown, 6-4 245, Bowie H.S. in Arlington, TX
DE FR Terry Franklin, 6-4 210, Legacy H.S. in Mansfield, TX
DT FR Jamarkus McFarland, 6-3 285, Lufkin H.S. in Lufkin, TX

QUESTION MARK ????????? Justin Chaisson

This defensive line unit has a tremendous amount of talent and depth. All four starters from last year will be returning. On the edges look for Auston English and Jeremy Beal to continue starting. English burst onto the scene as a sophomore and last year was an All Big 12 Honorable Mention. He's got an unbelievable motor and nose for the ball. A similar player is Beal. He was an All Big 12 First Team by the AP. He led the team with 8.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss.

Reserve defensive ends include Frank Alexander who was able to start and get significant playing time when Auston English has been banged up. He was an All Big 12 Honorable Mention and racked up 3.5 sacks on the year. Jonte Bumpus and Pryce Macon are depth guys, but will probably get passed for playing time by two extremely promising freshmen who redshirted last year. The first is R.J. Washington, who was the #1 DE recruit and #11 overall recruit on ESPN two years ago. He was an EA Sports and Parade All American. He holds his school record for sacks. He's an unbelievably talented and explosive player, and it will be hard to keep him off the field. The other guy who redshirted last year was David King, also a highly regarded recruit. He was named as the #11 defensive end nationally by Scout.com. Both King and Washington have the talent to get playing time this year.

At tackle, Gerald McCoy and Adrian Taylor should continue to start. McCoy is good enough to be playing NFL ball next year, but decided to come back for another season. He was an AP Second Team All American, and a Sporting News First Team All American. He led interior linemen on the team with 30 tackles and also was second on the team with 6.5 sacks. He plays well in the big game, getting 2 sacks against Texas' Colt McCoy and intercepting Tim Tebow. Adrian Taylor is pretty good himself. He tied for third on the team with 4.5 sacks. He had a career high 6 tackles in the National Championship Game.

Behind them there is some good depth. DeMarcus Granger had back surgery, so he's a bit of a question mark, but if he's healthy he has the talent of a starter on a Division I team. Cordero Moore is a senior, like Granger, and was part of the defensive tackle rotation last year. Casey Walker and Stacey McGee probably need to add a little weight before they'd be significant players in the the rotation. Both redshirted last year. But the guy who may jump up to the level of the first DT off the bench could be incoming freshman Jamarkus McFarland. He is a 5 star recruit on Scout.com. He has the size, quickness and strength to compete immediately. He needs to get better at getting a push up the middle to get to the quarterback.

Overall, the defensive line is about 2 starting quality players deep at every position, with all of the current starters being exceptional players. The defensive line could be one of the top units on the team this upcoming season. They say that interceptions and stops on defense come from great pressure. All of the starting defensive lineman can certainly pressure the ball, and with a defensive line to anchor the defense, I think we will be much improved from a year ago.

OU Football Spring Preview Part One: Who Is and Isn't Back, Exciting New Players

dishingoutdimes — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:29:16 -0000

Isn't that a beautiful sight? Owen Field filled to capacity, waiting to watch the OU football team take the field. I know we are in the middle of two remarkable basketball seasons (men's and women's), but it's time to start previewing the football team as the Red-White game will be approaching, and Spring practice has already started. Now, with the tournament starting soon, these may not be regular installments, but I will link to previous versions of these previews in the latest preview that I post. Eventually, when I end, there should be a series of links at the top of that post, and you can explore all of my spring previews.

Here's how it will work: I will post articles throughout the offseason (starting now and lasting possibly through May), and eventually we should have a nice overall view of how the football team is shaping up.

In order to go anywhere with this preview, first we need to understand what pieces will be missing from last year. This will be the "logistical" part of the preview - who is and is not back, who redshirted last year, etc. etc.

All the good stuff after the jump...

Who We Lost

Regular Starters: OT Phil Loadholt, OG Duke Robinson, OG Brandon Walker, C Jon Cooper, WR Juaquin Iglesias, WR Manuel Johnson, S Nic Harris, S Lendy Holmes, P Mike Knall.

Role Players/Backups: OL Branndon Braxton, WR Quentin Chaney, DT Cory Bennett, DB Brett Bowers, DE Alan Davis, QB Joey Halzle.

Obviously, what jumps out is that we lost almost our entire starting offensive line, our two starting wide receivers and our two starting safeties. We'll delve more into this when I talk about how we're going to fill the holes in our team from last year and graduations. However, I'll offer a few thoughts on these issues:

First, wide receivers are relatively easy to replace. It's not like in the Stoops era that OU has had an absolutely incredible stable of wideouts. On the contrary, I would argue we have had a stable of running backs, and a ton of really solid wideouts. Even 2 and 3 star recruits at WR pan out to be solid for the Sooners. Quentin Chaney was a 3 star recruit. Juaquin Iglesias was a 2 star recruit. Plus, we have some pretty solid guys waiting in the wings. Like I said, more on that in a later issue.

We have some awesome recruits waiting to compete for the safety spots. That's not really a concern. In fact our defense is loaded. All of that in later issues. Most concerning about these losses is the offensive line. It's not easy to replace such a bulky, athletic and talented offensive line overnight. It's probably the most unheralded position on the field except maybe the punter, but I think our offensive line was the big reason why our offense put up such astronomical numbers last season. Bradford rarely got touched, and we could pick apart defenses.

Last Year's Redshirts

We had a few redshirts last year (19 to be exact). Here they are:

DB Derrick Bradley, RB Jermie Calhoun, LB Daniel Franklin, OL Ben Habern, DB Lamar Harris, LB Dylan Hughley, DB Joseph Ibiloye, LB Emmanuel Jones, OT Jarvis Jones, QB Landry Jones, DE David King, OL Brian Lepak, DT Stacy McGee, TE Josh New, QB Ben Sherrard, TE James Toms, DT Casey Walker, DE R.J. Washington, K Tress Way.

New Players To Watch

Obviously we know about what we're getting from guys who were on the field regularly. But there's some new recruits or redshirts from last year who you should keep an eye on, especially in the spring game:

DE R.J. Washington - This guy was a 5 star recruit coming out of Keller, Texas. He was redshirted last year, but everyone was real excited about him. I'm not sure how much of the field he'll see with really only one DE graduating, but I would expect to see him become a part of the rotation. Here's some YouTube highlights.

WR's Jameel Owens and DeJuan Miller - Both of these guys were recruited last year as well. They both have good size. Owens is 6'3" 210 and Miller is 6'5" 200. While Ryan Broyles will be one of the obvious starters, and upperclassmen Adron Tennell and Brandon Caleb will be given every opportunity to win the other spot, I would expect to see both of these guys challenge for significant playing time and/or a starting spot. They were both 4 star recruits, so both of them have the talent to be big impact receivers. I would expect one of them to step up big time and impress.

S Quinton Carter - He isn't really new, but I would love to see him step up. In the playing time he did get, he was sort of a spark plug. He hits hard and would play well as a strong safety I think. We're going to need a centerfielder out there with a little bit more range and fluid hips in and out of turns, but I liked what I saw of Carter last year. Here are some samples of his work:

Ben Habern, Stephen Good and Jarvis Jones - All of these offensive lineman were highly rated in recruiting services. Jarvis Jones was a starter at LSU as a freshman before he transferred to OU. They all have the size to be successful in Division 1 college football, but will their skills transfer? If so, our offensive line could be almost as good as it was last year, which was basically untouchable.

RB Jermie Calhoun and RB Justin Johnson - Both of these guys were 5 star running back recruits last year. With Murray, Brown and Madu, they didn't get any playing time last year. However, they are both obviously very talented, and the majority of the buzz has been about Calhoun (he hasn't seen the field at all, he was redshirted). With the possibility of Mossis Madu moving to WR, that could open up the possibility of one of these guys sliding into 3rd down back or quality depth back role. I'm particularly excited to see Calhoun finally.

If a lot of those guys step up and help fill in major roles vacated by departing players, I think we'll be close to last year's level of competitiveness. We are returning a lot of starters, especially on defense.

The next spring preview issue should involve the major holes that have opened up, and the players that we should expect to step up and fill in these roles.

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

Bill C. — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:38:53 -0000

South Division

Oklahoma (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
Q1 Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster? Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup. The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable. Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country. They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford. As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy. He was sacked all of once a game last year. I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone. Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat. Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost. If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer? Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently. I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles. He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug. You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him. If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?" There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks). Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown? They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen. Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses. Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps. If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country. The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus. Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better). And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT. Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy. I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now. They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.). But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07? I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado? OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington). Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those? I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Texas (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Defense
1st Down Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense
Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South. Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.

Texas Tech (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Q3 Defense
2nd Down Defense
Redzone Offense
Q3 Rush Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing EqPts+
#1: Offensive Passing EqPts+
#2: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#2: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Offensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#122: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#117: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#115: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#113: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+

I've given up on trying to figure out exactly how Texas Tech had the "#1 defense in the Big 12" after long-time assistant Ruffin McNeill took the DC job midseason last year. They didn't. They still managed to give up 59 to Texas, 41 to Missouri, 31 to Colorado (Colorado!), 28 to Virginia, and 27 to Oklahoma after McNeill took over, and their D-line still served as just as good a sieve to rushing yards. As I've said many times this offseason, I think Texas Tech is without a doubt a Top 15-18 team...but no higher. And as I've said many times, they were two injuries to opponents' QBs (Sam Bradford, Jameel Sewell) away from a possible 7-6 record in '07. They do indeed return most of their key contributors from '07, including the best freshman WR of all-time, Michael Crabtree, but let's not pretend like there aren't holes here.

And let's start with the holes:

They've lost their one playmaking LB, Paul Williams (7.5 TFL's in '07, and a stellar success rate). We've heard lots of good things about sophomores Bront Bird and Brian Duncan, and there's a nice group of athletic RSFr's fighting for playing time, but they had one true playmaker, and he's gone.
The secondary is experienced and a little more deep than the typical Tech secondary, but...teams don't throw on Tech. They run on Tech. And while this could be the best D-line Tech's had in a long time (which is one of the reasons I think they're a Top 15-18 team), it's still not as good as OU's, or Texas's, or Missouri's, or Kansas's, or Colorado's. DTs' Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid, and there's potential at DE with Brandon Williams, Jake Ratliff, and McKinner Dixon. But again...at best, they're the #6 DL in the conference.
The offense still seems to get a bit timid when punched in the mouth. Missouri held them in check for 4 quarters by hitting them really hard, Colorado and Virginia did for 3. Once Oklahoma got its offense going while attempting a comeback, Tech's O ground to a total halt. Shannon Woods is a fantastic RB for Tech's offense, but he's not a power guy, not an "If Tech gains 2 yards on this play, they win the game...let's give it to that guy!" guy.

Again, though, this is why I don't think they're a conference or national title contender. They're still a good team, and getting Texas at home means they have a legitimate shot at #2 in the South and 10 wins overall (most wins under Leach: 9). Graham Harrell is the best, most experienced QB Mike Leach has had. Michael Crabtree is...Michael Crabtree. Guys like Eric Morris and Edward Britton will make sure that Danny Amendola won't be missed. The O-line returns all starters, plus it's humongous. Tech has more pure star power than it ever has before.

Verdict: Tech is 20-24 on the road under Mike Leach. They face Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M, and Kansas State on the road. Plus, they get Texas at home (last time they gave up less than 38 points to Texas: 2000). In other words, this is not a national title contender, and it's unfair to them to place the expectations that high. That said, this is just about the most dangerous team in the country. They can win any single game on their schedule, and if they wanted to win the South so that we didn't have to face OU in the conference title game (knock on wood), I sure wouldn't object.

Oklahoma State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

3rd Down Defense
Pass Offense
Redzone Defense
Defensive Points Per Play

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Line Yards+
#3: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+, Offensive Non-Passing Downs Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#124: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#121: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#107: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Verdict: I STILL have no idea what to do with OSU. They've got talent, athleticism, a dynamic QB, and an underrated offensive line. But their pass defense managed to be both horrific AND prone to breakdowns in 2007, and it's really hard for me to predict a major jump from them until they prove that they've improved in that area.

Texas A&M (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Non-Passing Downs Defense
Q3 Offense
Rushing Offense
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q4 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+
#5: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#8: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#118: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#117: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#115: Offensive Q2 S&P+

I got wordy about Tech and really wordy about OU, but...I just don't have that much to say about ATM. The hiring of Mike Sherman means that ATM will continue to be a physical team that can sneak up and bite you. Mike Goodson is obviously a big play waiting to happen, Stephen McGee is tough as nails, and they return a bunch of hard-hitters on defense--particularly guys like Devin Gregg and Crazy Michael Bennett. But...they still lack overall speed on defense, they don't have a QB who fits a pro-style offense, they lost their only two big-play threats in the passing game (Martellus Bennett, Kerry Franks), they have to replace 3 starters on the D-line, and they have to replace 3.5 on the O-line. The Big 12's too good this year to win big with that many weaknesses.

Verdict: I think I said it all above. I didn't like the Sherman hire, but any new ATM coach will have the opportunity to build some good, Texas-based recruiting classes, and eventually succeed. It's just not going to happen this year.

Baylor (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense
2nd Down Offense
Q3 Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive Passing Downs S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#7: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#125: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#124: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#123: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Baylor Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

There's more potential with this Baylor team than has been seen in green and gold for a while. But that's not saying much. Kirby Freeman was highly-recruited out of high school but pretty much flamed out at Miami--he's got potential, but if he doesn't get the QB job, a brand spanking new 4-star QB (with loads of, you guessed it, potential) is available to give it a shot. Briles' first (partial) recruiting class featured quite a bit of potential and speed, and that's probably what the Bears have been lacking most. They have a potential go-to WR in Thomas White, a potentially strong O-Line, and a couple potential big-time defenders in [Joe] Pawelek and [Jordan] Lake.

But let's be honest--every other team in the Big 12 (aside from maybe Iowa State) has more potential at the moment, along with more proven commodities. To turn this ship around in one season would require not one, but a series of miracles, and while Briles has proven himself to be a good coach...he hasn't proven himself God.

Verdict: A month or so after I wrote the above post, Art Briles still has yet to prove himself God. So everything I said above still stands.

BALANCE OF POWER

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

SCHEDULES

North Division
Missouri

Likely Wins (8): SEMO, Nevada, Buffalo, Oklahoma State, Colorado, @ Baylor, Kansas State, @ Iowa State

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (4): vs Illinois, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, vs Kansas

Prediction: It's hard to pick anybody to win in Austin, and I feel a bit like a homer for doing so, but...I'm doing it. This is possibly the best Mizzou team of my lifetime, and just in case they really do go 12-0, I want to say I picked it. I still get to be a fan. 12-0 (8-0).

Kansas

Likely Wins (6): Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ South Florida, Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, Texas, vs Missouri

Prediction: Depending on how KU responds to what is really one heckuva 5-week stretch (@OU, TT, KSU, @NU, UT), they could be 6-5 or 10-1 headed into the Mizzou game. I say they beat USF, Tech, and NU, meaning they're 9-1 headed into the UT game...and they lose to UT and MU. 9-3 (5-3).

Nebraska

Likely Wins (5): Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Baylor

Likely Losses (2): @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Tossups (6): Virginia Tech, Missouri, @ Iowa State, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Colorado

Prediction: I really do expect NU to be undefeated heading into the Mizzou game. They should handle a thin Virginia Tech squad at home before (I hope) losing to Mizzou. Then it gets tough to predict. I fully expect ISU to beat somebody at home, but I don't think they match up well at all with NU, so NU takes that one. They lose to both Kansas teams, but bounce back to beat CU. Which puts them at...8-4 (4-4).

Colorado

Likely Wins (3): Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Iowa State

Likely Losses (3): @ Florida State, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska.

Prediction: They match up pretty well with WV, I think, but no. They lose that one and lose another tight one to Texas before bouncing back against KSU, then heading down and winning in College Station. From there they take out OSU and lose to NU. 6-6 (4-4).

Kansas State

Likely Wins (3): North Texas, Montana State, UL-Lafayette

Likely Losses (3): Oklahoma, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): @ Louisville, Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State

Prediction: Beat Louisville, lose a tight one to Tech, lose the roadies to ATM and CU, pick off NU and ISU at home. The one trick here is, that would put them at 4-6 heading home for NU and ISU. It's quite possible that they don't keep it together enough to get to 6-6, but I'll say they do it. 6-6 (2-6).

Iowa State

Likely Wins (2): South Dakota State, Kent State

Likely Losses (5): Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, Missouri, @ Kansas State

Tossups (5): @ Iowa, @ UNLV, @ Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Prediction: Iowa's always a tossup, but no. UNLV may actually be decent this year, but...I have to have ISU beating somebody. So they beat UNLV, lose to Baylor and Nebraska, and take out ATM. 4-8 (1-7).

South Division

Oklahoma

Likely Wins (10): Chattanooga, Cincinnati, @ Washington, TCU, @ Baylor, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (2): vs Texas, @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: I put OSU on the tossups list because it always seems like a tight game in Stillwater. And while it's quite possible OU slips up on the road, I just don't know who that's going to be to. So I'll say 12-0 (8-0).

Texas

Likely Wins (7): Florida Atlantic, @ UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (5): @ Colorado, vs Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas

Prediction: I almost picked CU to upset UT until I realized that would mean I'd have UT losing three in a row (after picking them to lose to OU and MU). That's probably not going to happen. So they beat Colorado, lose to OU, MU, and Tech (I guess), and beat Kansas. 9-3 (5-3).

Texas Tech

Likely Wins (6): Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU, UMass, Nebraska, Baylor

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, @ Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Prediction: I just can't see them going better than 3-2 on the road, but I will have them beating KSU and ATM before losing to KU. They then beat UT and OSU to finish...10-2 (6-2).

Oklahoma State

Likely Wins (6): Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Baylor, Iowa State

Likely Losses (2): @ Missouri, @ Texas

Tossups (4): @ Washington State, @ Texas Tech, @ Colorado, Oklahoma

Prediction: The Wazzu game is pretty tricky, but...I'm a minor OSU homer, so I say they'll handle that one. But they'll lose the other three tossups. 7-5 (3-5).

Texas A&M

Likely Wins (2): Arkansas State, Army

Likely Losses (3): @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas

Tossups (7): @ New Mexico, Miami-FL, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Colorado, @ Baylor

Prediction: ATM does have a chance to make something out of this season, but...oy, I don't know. I say they take out the two non-con teams (UNM, Miami), beat KSU, lose to Tech, ISU and CU, then beat Baylor. 6-6 (2-6).

Baylor

Likely Wins (1): Northwestern State

Likely Losses (7): @ UConn, Oklahoma, @ OSU, @ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech.

Tossups (4): Wake Forest, Washington State, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Prediction: If Briles finds and offense and they're tough at home, they could end up with a solid record, as they have 5 winnable home games. But I don't see it happening yet. Beat Iowa State, lose the others. 2-10 (0-8).

STANDINGS

North

Missouri (8-0)
Kansas (5-3)
Nebraska (4-4)
Colorado (4-4)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (1-7)

South

Oklahoma (8-0)
Texas Tech (6-2)
Texas (5-3)
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Texas A&M (2-6)
Baylor (0-8)

Big 12 Championship

So it comes to this. Winner goes to the National Title Game. This is the year Fink beats the stomach, and by God, this is the year Missouri beats Oklahoma. I think. This is turning into the 2000-02 stretch in basketball where we couldn't beat them in the postseason (or season) to save our lives. But we'll say last year's Big 12 title game was the equivalent to losingto them in the Elite Eight in '02. And again...if it happens, I want to say I predicted it.

Missouri > Oklahoma

BOWLS

National Title Game: Missouri, dammit (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl (again): Oklahoma (12-1)
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Texas (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Kansas (9-3)
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6)
Texas Bowl: Colorado (6-6)

Other Bowl Eligible Teams
Kansas State (6-6)

Coming later this week: I put the whole thing together.