SB Nation - Dan Buckner

Afternooon Brewsky Is Long-Winded

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 23:33:15 -0000

More photos » by Erich Schlegel - AP

Your Flavor of the Week at running back: Tre' Newton.

Flavor of the Week at running back: Tre' Newton. It's been quite a season for this feature -- numerous running backs stepping into and out of the starting role in the Texas offense, but never able to hang onto the job. In all, my biggest regret is not giving Jamison Berryhill the Flavor of the Week Award after his performance against UTEP -- I just couldn't do it because of his fumble. Just in the last month and a half, Fozzy Whittaker looked like he earned himself the job with a strong game against Oklahoma, then it looked like Whittaker and Johnson were a strong one-two punch before Johnson carried 19 times for only the second 100-yard rushing game of the season against Baylor. Then, Johnson had a mediocre eight carries for 15 yards against Kansas and perhaps the coaches felt like his coming into the game too strongly signalled a running play -- probably because it did. Combined with his lack of ability to split out in the passing game and Johnson fell by the wayside with Vondrell McGee and Whittaker, carrying the ball only once against A&M.

The star of that game at running back was Tre' Newton, who received his first extended action since the Texas Tech game against Baylor when he broke off a 45-yard touchdown run and then came back with 12 carries for 66 yards and three catches for 36 yards against Kansas. Fully recovered from his concussion, Newton showed the ability that had some calling him the perfect fit for the Texas scheme after his strong performances against Wyoming and Tech early in the season.

What is it about Newton that makes him so valuable to his team? Perhaps his most valuable skill is his ability to pick up the blitz. It's obvious at this point that Texas is a passing team first and foremost, sprinkling in just enough running to keep the defense honest at times. Newton has been as good picking up the blitz as he was advertised to be in the spring -- his work in that respect by have been the most underrated part of the Texas win on Thursday, as he did not appear to miss an assignment at all during the game. At a solid 6-0, 200 pounds, Newton has the build that Whittaker does not to pick up blitzing linebackers and stop them in their tracks.

Combined with his blitz pick up abilities, Newton can also catch the ball, as he showed against Kansas, but there is still room for growth in that area and it will probably have to happen with Garrett Gilbert because McCoy clearly does not have the same trust with Newton that he did with Chris Obgonnaya, hardly surprising since Newton has gotten little work with the first team, while McCoy worked with Ogbonnaya for three years.

Running the football, he's hardly spectacular, but he has an excellent sense of when to be patient and when to hit the hole hard, as evidenced by his 16 carries for 107 yards and touchdown, only the third 100-yard game by a Texas back this season. What sets him apart from Fozzy Whittaker is his vision -- where Whittaker tries to bounce everything outside, which probably cost him his job, Newton doesn't get caught stretching plays horizontally when he can get up the field. And while he isn't the fastest running back around, he hasn't been caught from behind and his size makes his speed somewhat deceptive, which is just about as effective for blowing up angles as is a pure, 4.4 burst. After the Baylor game, Mack Brown probably expressed it as well as anyone could -- he said that Newton simply plays fast in pads, he has football speed.

It also looks like Newton has a nice stiff arm, as well:

That stiff arm delivered to an Aggie defender segues into the next point -- since Newton doesn't necessarily have breakaway speed, he does have to break some tackles, which he accomplishes by running with good pad level and finishing by driving his legs. He's a tough guy to bring down, as several Aggies got taken for a ride late in the game (with an assist from EBS):

In other words, Newton is basically a bigger, faster, stronger version of Chris Ogbonnaya and that's an excellent sign for the future of the running back position.

Return of the zone read. While Colt McCoy picked up some serious yardage on scrambles and quarterback draws, his Heisman moment on Thursday night came on his 65-yard touchdown run on a zone read, that staple under Vince Young that McCoy struggled running early in his career because he wasn't making the proper reads and was rarely used this season as the coaches sought to protect their star quarterback. Well, it's back and in a big way.

At least for the Texas A&M game, that is. It's hard to say how effective it will remain for a major reason -- the Aggies didn't seem prepared for it. During the game, they eventually adjusted by having the read man get upfield and force the handoff, but Nebraska and Florida/Alabama if the Longhorns win on Saturday may use the now tried-and-true technique of forcing the quarterback to keep the ball by crashing the read man down the line of scrimmage, then scraping a linebacker to that side to cover the quarterback -- basically the way that teams stop the zone read these days.

Doing that, however, may take a scraping linebacker out of the play on the straight inside zone, which could open up holes for the running back and allow a lineman to even get to the third level of the defense. Basically, running the zone read should open up the running game for Texas because the defense has to decide where to commit resources -- to stopping the running back or stopping McCoy by scraping a linebacker and leaving the Longhorns with even better numbers on the inside zone.

Here's a perfect example from the A&M game -- obviously the Aggies were caught off guard with the zone read, most likely just thinking the Longhorns were running the inside zone, but adjusted at halftime by sending the read man upfield to force a handoff:

The read man on the play gets upfield, giving McCoy a give read. The Aggie player on the right end of the line of scrimmage runs himself out of the play for some reason, perhaps concerned with McCoy, while the offensive line does an excellent job of sustaining their blocks and getting to the second level to take out the linebackers. It's a perfect example of how the threat of McCoy running can open up the running game -- Newton picked up 20 yards on this play extremely easily.

if teams get lazy and forget about McCoy, the Texas quarterback will gash them for big plays with his feet. If teams focus too much on McCoy, it opens up the inside zone for Tre' Newton. In other words, using McCoy in the running game is the best way for Texas to run the ball consistently and with him becoming a threat in recent weeks, it puts a ton of pressure on the defense and elevates the Longhorn running game from inconsistent and sporadic to a serious threat.

Malcolm Williams continues his emergence. Rivals has a scouting report ($) up from an opposing Big 12 coach about the Longhorns, from the context probably an Oklahoma coach because he talks about being physical with Shipley and Texas not having another dangerous receiver. Clearly, that coach hasn't watched the Longhorns over the last several weeks as Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll have emerged as excellent no. 2 and no. 3 options for McCoy. Of course, the same coach also said that McCoy "doesn't look like a substantial guy," so he clearly doesn't really know what he's talking about. Have you seen his guns the last two years, dude? The guy is ripped and has been for some time.

The bigger point here is that Texas is at a much different point right now with their receiving corps than they were a month and a half ago after playing Oklahoma, a game in which every receiver other than Marquise Goodwin had a bad day and Goodwin even made a huge mistake late by going behind the defender on a slant. Since then, Williams has accounted for 27 of his 35 catches, 411 of his 494 yards and both of his touchdowns. In the last two games, Williams has caught 15 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown -- nearly half of his receiving yards on the entire season and the second and third games of his career with more than 100 yards receiving. So, for that coach who hasn't been paying attention -- check out what Malcolm Williams has been doing, because it's pretty impressive.

More than pure numbers, though, Williams has opened up the Texas offense by providing a threat down the field, as well as a physical presence in the short passing game who has the ability to break a tackle and pick up big yardage. On one play in the second quarter, the Aggies failed to put a safety over the top of Williams and tried to jam him with Justin McQueen. As soon as McCoy saw him walking up on Williams, he pointed and made eye contact with his big receiver, perhaps making a sight adjustment on the play. Williams did an excellent job using his hands to get the inside release and then ran by McQueen, catching the pass at the first-down marker and accelerating downfield.

The play would have gone for a 75-yard touchdown had McQueen not made a shoestring tackle on Williams to limit him to a 28-yard gain. A productive play, but one that ended up essentially costing the Longhorns points because they were not able to score on the drive -- had Williams recognized that McQueen was right behind him and done something that a lot of running backs do well in chopping his feet high and hard, he might have broken the tackle and scored on the play.

Even with that small complaint, the play illustrates just how close Williams is to breaking big plays consistently. In fact, had McCoy hit him on several targeted deep passes, the Garland product and former track star may have easily eclipsed 200 yards receiving on the day -- it's clear that he and McCoy aren't quite on the same page consistently on deep passes. Part of the problem is that Williams seems to get caught up in hand fighting with defensive backs instead of trusting his speed to get him downfield, something that has caused McCoy to overthrow him twice in the last two weeks on plays that could have gone for touchdowns. If the Longhorns can get past Nebraska this week, then McCoy and Williams will have a little more than a month to get ready for a national championship game and connecting on deep passes. With how far they have come in a month and a half, that extra time could lead to some big plays even against good defenses like Alabama and Florida.

One key for McCoy might be to not try to lead Williams so much, but rather to make sure that he has a chance to make a play on the ball, even if he has to slow down to do so. Slight underthrows also make it more likely that a defensive back will interfere with the play and though that isn't as big in college football as it is in the NFL, 15 yards is still much more helpful to a drive than an incomplete pass. A perfect example of his came on the first drive of the third quarter when the Longhorns tried a play-action pass off their jet tempo look -- McCoy had some pressure in his face and had to get rid of the ball a little early, but overthrew Williams to the inside instead of giving him a chance to make a play on the ball.

Tracking: special teams play. For the second straight week, covering kicks was an abject disaster. The first problem is that unless he has some wind behind him or is in the thin air of Wyoming, Justin Tucker can't seem to put the ball in the end zone, forcing the Texas coverage kickoff unit to cover every single kick. The reasons for the other problems -- failing to fill lanes, missing tackles, not getting off blocks -- are harder to explain, but they need to get fixed and soon.

Virtually everyone on both the kickoff coverage unit and the kickoff return unit are to blame for the poor performace against the Aggies. Outside of the touchdown return from Goodwin, the Longhorns averaged a paltry 15 yards per return on the first six Aggie kicks -- that's a terrible average that would rank dead last in the country over the course of a season.

Here's a look at each kickoff return:

1st return: An Aggie player comes completely free from the right edge of the Texas return team, while Aaron Smith and Malcolm Williams both fail to get blocks inside. Shipley never has a chance on his 13-yard return.
2nd return: A high, short kick by the Aggies gives the coverage excellent time to get down the field. Goodwin fields the ball at the 14 yardline and heads up behind the wedge of Eddie Jones, Aaron Smith. and Antwan Cobb. The blocks are good initially, but as Goodwin tries to get arond Jones' man, the Aggie defender disengages and makes the play. If Jones could have help the block longer and done a better job of sealing the defender inside, the return might go for a big play. However, it was destined to come back because Kenny Vaccaro absolutely tackled his man on the right side of the unnecessarily.
3rd return: Another high, short kick by the Aggies field at the 14 by Goodwin and the wedge never forms because Aaron Smith gets absolutely blown up and Nolan Brewster gets beat on the edge, keeping Goodwin from getting quickly upfield. He does manage to take the corner and picks up 22 yards, a good return on this evening.
4th return: Goodwin fields the ball at the 6 and heads upfield, but has no chance to get up into the wedge because Nolan Brewster misses his block on the edge so badly that the Aggie hits Goodwin in the legs at the 16, a tackle the speedster escapes before he gets hit on the left side of the field at the 22 by an Aggie who was unblocked on the play. Had the blocking been better on the edges, Goodwin still wouldn't have had much of a chance, as Cody Johnson missed his block and Aaron Smith didn't manage to block anyone. The Longhorns start at the 22 after a 16-yard return.
5th return: This was a really bad play for the Texas running backs. Cody Johnson misses a block in the wedge that forces Goodwin outside after his catch at the 2 yardline, while both Fozzy Whittaker and Jeremy Hills miss blocks on the right side of the return. Kenny Vaccaro also misses his block early in the coverage, so basically everything on the right side broke down. Goodwin bounces it outside left, then tries to cut back, eventually getting to the 17. Unfortunately, Hills, in his attempt to get back into the block, gets a cheap, unnecessary block in the back call at the end of the play that didn't even help Texas. The Longhorns end up backed up inside their own 10.
6th return: Goodwin catches the ball at the 3 yardline, then heads upfield into the wedeg. Oh wait, there is no wedge on this play because Cody Johnson and Aaron Smith both fail to block the single Aggie coming at them. Guess who eventually collapses the play? Yeah, that guy who didn't get blocked. Goodwin gets 19 yards out to the 22.
7th return: Ah yes -- the seventh time is the charm, apparently. This time, Cody Johnson and Aaron Smith knock down an Aggie trying to split their block, then keep him on the ground. On the other side of the wedge, Eddie Jones blocks one Aggie, while getting in the way of another -- looks like one of them got out of their lane pretty badly to allow that to happen, while Vondrell McGee walls off another Aggie behind Jones. Meanwhile, Nolan Brewster gets an excellent block on the edge, despite getting a hand to his throat and facemask. An unblocked Aggie comes from the right edge, but Goodwin blows up his angle with his speed, as the Aggie slips trying to make the tackle. At this point, Goodwin is up in the wedge with a beautiful running lane and needs only to get a block from Malcolm Williams and beat the kicker. Williams overruns the last Aggie in hole, but recovers to get a piece of him as Goodwin sprints by. Now, it's just Goodwin and a short, fat, dumpy kicker in the open field. Goodwin cruises for the last 30 yards of his game-changing 95-yard touchdown return, the 11th non-offensive touchdown for the Longhorns this season.

It's hard to say that the return unit made up for the consistently poor blocking the rest of the game with one good effort, but considering how much that one play changed the game, it's probably not out of line to say that. However, it doesn't excuse the poor effort by some of the same players on the coverage unit, particularly Kenny Vaccaro. A special teams standout since the Oklahoma State game, Vaccaro had by far his worst game as a Longhorn, with only one good block that was close to being a hold on kickoff, while committing another holding penalty and a late-hit personal foul on the return after Goodwin's touchdown when he jumped way late into Ryan Swopes and the two Longhorns pushing him out of bounds.

Vaccaro clearly walks a fine line between playing with near-reckless abandon and playing out of control. Against the Aggies, he was clearly out of control and he needs to reign himself in if he wants to keep playing on special teams because both of those penalties were extremely harmful to the field position in the game -- after his personal foul, the Aggies started their drive at the Texas 36 yardline, an extremely short field. Add in the penalty on Jeremy Hills and the special teams accounted for three of the six Longhorn penalties on the evening.

In the punting game, Justin Tucker was adequate, averaging just over 43 yards on his two kicks and Colt McCoy continued his streak of killing the ball inside the 20 on his pooch punts, punting for 33 yards and pinning the Aggies inside their own 8 yardline. The Longhorns also ran a fake punt, hiking the ball to Antwan Cobb, who pitched it to Malcolm Williams, who ran the option with Justin Tucker. The Aggie forced the pitch and Tucker got within two yards of the marker, but Nolan Brewster missed his block and Keenan Robinson could get not outside fast enough to get his block. The timing and position on the field of the call were questionable, but the Longhorns would have made it if it had only been 4th and 4 instead of 4th and 6 or possibly if Brewster could have made his block.

The special teams has disturbingly trended downward throughout the latter part of the season, as the kickoff return game has stalled at times, Jordan Shipley has fumbled twice, Justin Tucker's punting has been inconsistent, and the kickoff coverage has cratered over the last two weeks, giving up around 25 yards per return, which would put them in the bottom seven in the country over the course of a whole season. As it is, ranking 63rd in the country, right behind North Texas and Ball State, is hardly something to brag about. The Longhorns have some serious work to do if they can escape the Big 12 championship game against Nebaska before they move on to a possible national championship game, as both Florida and Alabama both rank in the top 15 in kickoff returns and Alabama ranks sixth in punt returns.

Tracking: third-down conversions. The Longhorns rank second this year in converting third downs, picking up nearly 48% of their attempts. Against the Aggies, Texas was slightly below their season average in conversions at 42% or five of 12.

Here's a look at each third down:

3rd and 11 Texas A&M 41: Texas A&M brings a linebacker, a safety, and a standup end or linebacker and though the Texas offensive line mostly holds up well, Adam Ulatoski allows enough pressure on McCoy and the coverage downfield is good enough that he has to throw the ball short of the first-down marker to Jordan Shipley for a five-yard gain. The Longhorns ran their unsucessful fake punt attempt on the next play and came up short.
3rd and 10 Texas 45: After dropping back to pass and scanning the field without finding a receiver open, McCoy heads heads towards the line of scrimmage and pumps fakes one A&M defender before breaking the tackle of another to get close to the first-down marker. The Longhorns sneak the ball on fourth and short to pick up the fourth down -- the third-down scramble doesn't go down as a conversion, but basically works as such since the Longhorns couldn't have gone for it and fourth and long.
3rd and 5 Texas A&M 40: The Longhorns line up in 10 personnel with Buckner as the flex tight end. A&M brings a blitz from the defensive back lined up over Buckner and there isn't a safety close enough to stop Buckner after McCoy finds him on a short route over the middle. Buckner does a nice job of planting his foot and making one defender miss to pick up 12 yards on the play.
3rd and 2 Texas 35: Ah yes, the Heisman moment: Texas lines up in 11 personnel and the Aggies bring a blitz from the weakside. McCoy does an excellent job of waiting just long enough for a defender coming free from his left to get too far upfield, while another defender coming on the blitz bites hard on the running back. Adam Ulatoski and Charlie Tanner both get good blocks and then McCoy simply outruns two defensive backs to the end zone for a 65-yard touchdown.
3rd and 4 Texas A&M 41: This is the possession where Malcolm Williams nearly broke the short pass for a long touchdown, but got taken down from behind. McCoy drops back and scans the field, then checks down to Tre' Newton over the middle, who can't hand onto the catch just short of the marker -- the only real mistake from Newton on the evening. Had he caught the ball, the Longhorns might have gone for it just over midfield. The second-down play also led to the lack of a third-down conversion, as McCoy misfired on a short pass that Shipley couldn't hang onto that would have been about a yard and half short, setting up an easier third down.
3rd and 8 Texas 39: The Longhorns are in 10 personnel with Buckner as the flex tight end. The Aggies blitz and Williams runs a hitch, pushing McQueen well off the ball, then using his superior size and a stiff arm to get the last several yards to pick up the first down. A perfect example of the physical dominance Williams possesses over 95% of college cornerbacks.
3rd and 8 Texas A&M 50: This looks like almost the exact same play as the previous third down: the Aggies blitz and McCoy hits Williams on a hitch. This time, McQueen does a better job of making the tackle and Williams appears to be inches short, but gets a poor spot nearly a yard from the first-down marker. The Longhorns go to the quick-snap sneak one time too many and get stopped -- it would have been a perfect time for the Jumbo package.
3rd and 1 Texas A&M 13: Chris Fowler calls this a zone read on the broadcast, but it's really power, with Davis Snow pulling into the hole and picking up a good block for Tre' Newton, who picks up six yards on the play.
3rd and 8 Texas 22: Aganst an 11 personnel look from the Longhorns, the Aggies bring both linebackers and though Tre' Newton does an adequate job of picking one up, the defender collapses the pocket, forcing McCoy to step up into the rush of a defensive tackle who knocked Charlie Tanner onto his back and Von Miller, who used a nice inside move that knocked Ulatoski off balance. McCoy is sacked for a loss of six yards.
3rd and 10 Texas 8: This one really comes down to poor plays on first and second down. On first down, Williams dropped what would have been a five or six yard gain, making playcalling on the next two downs much easier. Then, on second down, McCoy gets himself in trouble by stepping up in the pocket, which helps a defensive lineman disengage and nearly takes a safety before overthrowing Malcolm Williams downfield. On third down, the Longhorns go to empty and the Aggies drop nine into coverage to take away any scrambles by McCoy, who forces a pass to a covered Buckner and overthrows him on the play.
3rd and 12 Texas A&M 47: This is the touchdown pass to James Kirkendoll. See here for analysis.
3rd and 7 Texas A&M 50: This is the final play of the game -- victory formation for the Longhorns.

Taking out the final play and putting the two fourth-down sneak attempts in, the Longhorns finished at 46% for the game, close to their season average. The major blemishes were the two three and outs in the third quarter, which had more to do with more plays on first and second down than poor playcalling or execution on third down. Those two drives illustrate just how important it is to pick up yardage on first and second down -- this is why Greg Davis doesn't mind callilng short passes -- two short passes to set up third and short end up being extremely effective. What stands out here is that McCoy targeted Williams on two consecutive third and long plays and Williams converted the first and nearly converted the second, as his size and strength makes him difficult to stop when the cornerback has to respect his ability to go deep.

Anatomy of Momentum: Replying Against A&M

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:19:06 -0000

by Dave Einsel - AP

If Aggies were smarter, they would know that horns go up. Of course, if they were smarter, they might not be Aggies.

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Context

Momentum is a fickle mistress, willing to switch sides at the drop of a hat, to follow the most recent success, to abandon at the first sign of distress, cresting and surging along with a raucous home crowd and abandoning the poor road team in distress. However fickle, though, our lady is, perhaps more than anything, she is ready to abandon a mentally fragile team, whether they are playing at home or not, whether they are going against a meaningless non-conference patsy or playing in the most heated rivalry game. Yes, a fickle mistress indeed.

The Longhorns took a 35-21 lead midway through the third quarter and it looked like momentum was on the side of the road team, with the notoriously fragile psyche of the young Aggie team appearing ready to collapse at any moment. A methodical drive into Texas territory re-energized the crowd and gave the A&M offense confidence again, but an Earl Thomas interception in the end zone threatened once more to swing momentum firmly to the side of the visiting Longhorns, who had a chance to blow the game open. An incomplete pass by Colt McCoy, however, followed by a short run and a sack, killed the Texas drive and gave the ball back to the Aggies. No momentum swing after all.

This time, Jerrod Johnson gashed the defense with his feet on the first play for 38 yards before the Longhorns stiffened to hold the Aggies to a field goal. Three incomplete passes by McCoy on the next series gave the ball right back to the Aggies with great field position, while the home team caught a break by recovering Jordan Pugh's fumble on the return. With the Longhorns defense coming back onto the field after only a short break, momentum was firmly back on the Texas A&M sideline, no doubt ready to make out with a goofy member of the Corps with a bad haircut -- so yes, just about any one of those silly, homely, wanna-be members of the military.* Christine Michael took advantage of poor tackling by the Longhorns to finish the drive with an 18-yard touchdown run and Ryan Tannehill easily beat the coverage of Blake Gideon to convert the two-point play, bringing the Aggies to within 35-32 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. And that would be our fickle mistress getting tongue thrashed on national television by a redneck who was made to drink his own urine the night before as part of ritualistic hazing. And that would be people of taste all over the country vomiting up their turkey onto their living room floor.

After all that, Marquise Goodwin returned the kickoff 19 yards to the Texas 22 with 13:38 left in the game.

*Note: if you want to be like someone in the military, join the military -- dressing up is for little girls.

The Plays

1st and 10 Texas 22

Texas comes out in an empty set on first down with five wide receivers and the camera angle makes it difficult to see who is on the field. Regardless, A&M shows blitz at the line of scrimmage, with six defenders against the five Texas offensive linemen.

McCoy reads blitz prior to the snap and probably decides at that point to go to his hot read, Jordan Shipley on a quick out. Perhaps because the offensive line knows the hot read is to the right side, the protection slides in that direction, leaving the backside defender free, even though A&M drops two of the defenders who showed blitz into coverage in an attempt to take away any hot reads by McCoy in the middle of the field. The backside defending coming free forces a quick and inaccurate pass from McCoy, as the ball hits near Shipley's feet.

2nd and 10 Texas 22

It wasn't a great decision by Greg Davis to start the drive in an empty set that allowed A&M to show blitz and force the quick throw, so Davis takes out a receiver and puts Tre' Newton into the game at running back. Notice that the Aggie defense is still spread out and has only one safety deep in bracket coverage on Malcolm Wiliams at the top of the screen, with the defensive back over Shipley in the slot showing blitz, then retreating into coverage.

The weakside linebacker comes on a delayed blitz, while McCoy drops back showing pass.

McCoy sells the pass well, something he doesn't always do well on quarterback draws, then heads towards the line of scrimmage, while Chris Hall and Charlie Tanner release upfield to block. Michael Huey can't maintain his block and the defensive tackle appears to have a play on McCoy.

Huey ends up releasing his defender just long enough to avoid a holding penalty, then gets him to the ground as McCoy goes by. Chris Hall cut blocks a linebacker in the open field, leaving McCoy with only a defensive back to beat to make a big play.

MCoy takes a glancing blow from the defensive back as three other Aggies converge on him -- perhaps the most underrated part of McCoy's game right now is his combination of strength and balance. There aren't many ways in which comparisons between McCoy and Vince Young are valid, but McCoy's ability to pause and gather himself for a minute to use an opponent's momentum against him is positively Vince Young-esque and it makes McCoy extremely difficult to take down in the open field, as the Aggies learned on Thursday night. Notice as well the fine blocking of Malcolm Williams at the top of the screen.

As McCoy escapes the group of Aggie defenders, there is nothing but open field in front of him for 25-30 yards or more.

Unfortunately, Malcolm Williams works too hard blocking on the play, catching Justin McQueen in the back relatively unnecessarily. On the broadcast, Chris Fowler notes that Williams didn't need to block McQueen at all on the play because he wasn't going to catch McCoy, but that is questionable. In the end, it isn't a terrible block in the back by Williams, as he has one hand on the front of McQueen's shoulder and his other hand barely in McQueen's back -- a good call, but a close one. McCoy gets inside the 25 yardline on the play, which would have made it a 54-yard run by McCoy, but the penalty brings the ball back to the Aggie 45, reducing it to a 43-yard run by the Texas quarterback.

1st and 10 Texas A&M 45

The Longhorns bring EBS onto the field in their 11 personnel package to do what he does best -- provide that nice blocking surface. Of course, bringing him onto the field at this point also telegraphs a run.

The Aggies don't necessarily anticipate the run though, as one of the two deep safeties sells out down the field without even reading his keys. The Longhorns run what looks like the power play (though it isn't blocked like most power plays) they've begun using in recent weeks but that familiar, oft-bumbling duo of Hall and Charlie Tanner rear their ugly heads, as both miss badly on their blocks, leaving two free defenders in the backfield. Newton avoids Tanner's man, but gets forced outside where the pursuit of the Aggie defense stops him for a two-yard loss.

2nd and 12 Texas A&M 47

After the failed running play, the Longhorns bring Dan Buckner back onto the field in an obvious passing situation. Annoyingly, the bottom receiver is not on the screen once again because of the poor angle the cameras have at Kyle Field. Notice that the Aggies have only two down linemen, with Von Miller and another Aggie standing at the line of scrimmage. Notice as well that the linebackers are playing only three yards off of the line of scrimmage.

The reason for the linebackers' proximity to the line of scrimmage becomes immediately apparent -- they're both blitzing. The Longhorn offensive line does a good job of picking up the blitzers, as does Tre' Newton, but the two Texas tackles do a poor job with the speed rushers off the edge, particularly Adam Ultatoski matched against Von Miller, who gets by the big senior before Ulatoski can really even get his hands on him.

McCoy steps up in the pocket and attempts to deliver the pass to Shipley as he gets hit, but the pass comes out just as Shipley is coming out of his break -- too late on this play. Had McCoy read the depth of the linebackers at the snap as a blitz look, he might have made the adjustment with Shipley to run his route with less depth. Instead, it's third and long for the Longhorns.

3rd and 12 Texas A&M 47

The Longhorns stay in their 10 personnel look, with Dan Buckner remaining on the field for this crucial third down. Notice that A&M once again has their linebackers extremely close to the line of scrimmage, signaling another blitz.

This time, Ulatoski gets his hands on Miller and the rest of the line does an equally good job of picking up the blitz. Tre' Newton deserves special mention once again for his effort. McCoy has time in the pocket to scan the field.

The good protection allows McCoy to hit a relatively slow developing route -- a seven-yard in by Kirkendoll, who has one defender, known on this play as RAS #1 -- Random Aggie Scrub #1 -- to pick up the first down

Since McCoy hits Kirkendoll on time and in stride, he allows his receiver to make a spin move up the field and elude RAS #1, who apparently thinks he is playing flag football and tries to grab Kirkendoll's towel. Unfortunately for RAS #1 and all the military wanna be's out in the crowd, RAS #1 is not playing flag football, but rather football of the tackling variety. Oops!

Kirkendoll takes the edge against RAS #2, seen here trailing the play, while RAS #3 tries to cut off his angle as the Longhorn receiver heads inside of the Buckner "block." I'm using the term block here loosely.

RAS #3, seen here convingly playing the role of a slow white linebacker, flails about helplessly against the much faster player as RAS #4 tries to catch Kirkendoll flat-flooted. Hmm, doesn't look like he has the hips to be a cornerback. Oops!

Having left nearly half the Aggie defense, random scrubs all, in his tracks, Kirkendoll has an easy jaunt to the end zone to complete his 47-yard touchdown catch. One thing though, Kirk -- could you throw your horns up when you score a touchdown instead of just pointing at people/things?

Final Totals

Five plays, 78 yards, 1:34 expired. One of three passing for McCoy for 47 yards and a touchdown, with both incomplete passes intended for Jordan Shipley and neither one catchable. One catch for 47 yards and a touchdown for Kirkendoll, along with four Random Aggie Scrubs beat on the play. One carry for a loss of two yards by Tre' Newton, who also had two excellent blitz pick ups on the drive. One missed pass block each for Adam Ulatoski and Kyle Hix. Two good blitz pick ups by the interior line and good pass blocks from Ulatoski and Hix on the same play. One missed run block apiece by Chris Hall and Charlie Tanner. One good cut block in space by Chris Hall.

Final Verdict

As mentioned in the lengthy Context section, this was an extremely important drive for the Longhorns. Not only had the Aggies roared back from the earlier 35-21 deficit, but the Longhorn offense had struggled in the second half with the exception of the second drive on which Texas ran every play. On the other three drives, the Longhorns had been stopped on downs and had two three and outs. Not good enough.

The major point here is that Texas responded, giving themselves some breathing room and, though they didn't allow the defense much of a break with such a short drive in terms of time elapsed from the clock, it did give the defense more margin for error, which they quickly proved they neeed.

In terms of playcalling, the run on first down was obvious after bringing in Greg Smith and the empty set on the first play begged the Aggies to bring a blitz and force a quick pass -- the empty set doesn't seem to have any advantage over the 10 personnel package with Buckner in the flex tight end role, especially since Tre' Newton does so well picking up the blitz. Ditch it. The quarterback draw was an excellent playcall, however, and caught one linebacker bailing out in coverage and the other an a blitz.

The touchdown pass to Kirkendoll was certainly an effective call, but the offensive line and Newton deserve most of the credit on the play for picking up the blitz and giving McCoy a perfect pocket from which to throw. As expected given the time, McCoy delivered the pass perfectly and Kirkendoll showed yet again why the coaching staff did an excellent job challenging him after the Oklahoma game with his benching and forcing him to earn his playing time. Challenging him, along with switching him to his more natural position outside, has lit a fire under Kirkendoll and has led to the break-out performances over the last several games that everyone expected much earlier in the season. The junior from Round Rock is now a serious threat and McCoy's confidence in him seems to grow every week -- that's extremely encouraging for the offense moving forward.

Combine that with emergence of Malcolm Williams as a downfield threat and this offense is hitting on just about every cylinder right now, although the struggles early in the second half illustrate that there is still room to grow with more than a month of practice left to do so. If Alabama and Florida fans aren't a little bit scared by that thought, they should be.

Postgame React: Texas Overwhelms UCF 35-3

Peter Bean — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 02:21:56 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Not good at celebrating. Damn good at football.

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The outcome was: solid. If it wasn't before, that an undefeated Texas will play for the national title is officially a certainty after Iowa's loss to Northwestern today. For Texas, then, the only "outcome" that matters is the scoreboard -- narrow wins, big wins, uneven wins, it's all the same in terms of getting to Pasadena. As such, the Horns' 35-3 win over UCF was plenty solid, enough to maintain the second or third spot in the BCS while waiting for SEC elimination to play out. Win, and they're in.

Beyond the victory, if you're eager to see Colt McCoy win the Heisman Trophy then today's outcome was satisfactory on another level as well. If Malcolm Williams had scored Texas' second touchdown instead of Cody Johnson, McCoy not only would have finished with 3 passing TDs instead of 2, but the reception would have been enough to put his total for the day above the 500-yard mark. As it was, the 470 yards set a school record for a regular season game (single-game record set by Major in the 2001 Holiday Bowl, at 473 yards passing), a gaudy number that -- in a wide open year for the award -- will give a big boost to a name familiar to voters. Neither he nor the offense were perfect on the day, but if over his final four games he puts up numbers anywhere near today's, he'll return to New York once again and have as good a shot as anyone to take the trophy.

The Offensive MVP was: The Roommates. We've already started to discuss McCoy's big day (33-46 passing for 470 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT), but there's no way to separate his production from Jordan Shipley, who finished with 10 receptions and a ridiculous 273 yards receiving, including an 88-yard touchdown in the final quarter. Shipley's big day not only shatters the university's single-game record for receiving yards, but improves his season totals to 74 catches and 1,050 yards. If he maintains his current pace Shipley will finish the 14-game season with 115 receptions and 1,516 yards, both of which would leave in the dust Texas' current single-season bests. Three notes on the duo's huge afternoon:

Central Florida's secondary is awful. I say that not to discredit the stellar performance, but to wonder about the Longhorns' empty offensive first quarter, which was an example of opening the game content to "do what we do" rather than scheme to an opponent. To Texas' credit, after the second drive the usual offensive approach was discarded, Greg Davis started taking shots downfield, and the passing party was underway. What's more, I'm not sure about any larger point here, since a week ago I was greatly miffed by Davis' decision to open five-wide particularly to attack a perceived OSU weakness. I think, if anything, the lessons here might center on (1) our offense's standard operating procedure, which teams have been defending successfully since the start of the year, and (2) the encouraging results the offense has seen employing various adjustments to that core approach.
Shipley's production today was a lot like that from the Colorado game, only this time around there's not much about the big day about which to be concerned. Recall that against CU, not only was McCoy-to-Shipley more or less the entire offensive production, but it more or less seemed the entire offensive focus. Not so today, when Texas -- though again paying only lip service to the running game -- featured a much more robust aerial attack that included roll outs, heavy play action, and multiple shots down the field (to multiple receivers). The Malcolm Williams breakout continues, Kirkendoll and Chiles are settling in to minor but helpful roles, and even when Marquise Goodwin isn't making receptions he's affecting the game with his speed, versatility, and superior blocking.
While first and foremost developing diversity in the passing game was essential to countering that which defenses have been doing to frustrate what we wanted to do, there are rich secondary benefits to be had from evolving. Chief among them is the return of Texas' efficiency converting third downs, a healthy 55% over the last three games (22-of-40), up from 42.5% (34-of-80) through the season's first six games. The outstanding McCoy-to-Shipley connection is valuable to the offense in any case, but substantially more so when defenses have to commit resources elsewhere.

Quick hits on other highlights from offense:

* I really like how Colt McCoy is taking an active role in launching a Malcolm Williams breakout party. McCoy's near-touchdown strike to Williams was a great look on its own, but it was the way McCoy went right back to him on the next play that impressed me most. If this is something we wish had begun early in the season, the effort underway now appears genuine and ambitious.

* Other good signs in the passing game include steady niche production from Chiles and Kirkendoll. No longer miscast as a receiver with the ability to separate, Chiles is contributing nicely in the ways he's able, developing into a solid possession guy helpful to keeping defenses honest. As for Kirkendoll, he seems to have gotten his head in the right mental place after a mostly miserable start to the season. He's neither quite fast enough nor strong enough to do much with the underneath crossing stuff we run for him, but as a receiver to send out on a seam route he's plenty capable of finding space and making catches 15 yards downfield.

* Gotta love the effort Texas is getting from Big Cody, whose 10 carry, 44-yard stat line seems like it undersells his overall contributions. It's comical to send him out there for our zone stretch plays, but in all fairness, Barry Sanders would struggle to make yards on those plays, too. I still like Johnson in a situational role, even if that role is a relatively involved one; Johnson isn't a great fit as a primary guy in the zone read or pseudo-counter.

* Illustration by contrast: great a weapon as is Cody for various goal-to-go situations, Texas doesn't score that final touchdown if it's Johnson instead of Whittaker. Speaking of which, Fozzy was limited to just 4 carries on the game, 5 if you include -- as does the box score -- his ridiculous attempt to execute a flea flicker (the fumble of which wound up counting against him for -13 yards rushing). As middling as is our rushing scheme, I'd still like to see him touch the ball 10 times a game; as we've seen two of the last three weeks, he possesses the speed and slipperiness that allow him to get to the end zone where others will not.

* And finally, we're running a lot of play-action all the sudden, a welcome development. With that said, when Texas finds itself facing an elite defense, the play action won't sparkle like it does against terrible teams, unless the play fake is actually credible. We're still running the ball so haphazardly, and generally poorly, that elite defenses can and will be able to ignore the run game as insignificant -- enough so, at least, to scheme to ignore all play fakes and assume that whatever runs we do call won't pop us much, if at all. As noted above, part of the solution to a good defense sitting back on our passing game is to develop and diversify the passing attack itself, but I remain in the skeptics camp that there won't at some point be a price to pay if the offensive approach doesn't better and more systematically incorporate runs.

The offensive Offensive LVP was: The O-Line. I've spent the better part of too many Saturdays this fall hammering out new variations on the same points, and I am at this point disinterested in continuing to do more of the same. This week, we keep it simple: the offensive line struggled in myriad ways, some of which is inadequacy of players, and some of which is inadequacy of coaches. In any case, well-established as are the various strengths and weaknesses of all involved, detailed analyses of substantial changes that might be made are at this point wishcasting. We are what we are as a running team, and I've limited my hopes in that regard to modest improvement in the way our mediocre rushing game is incorporated into a larger strategy, if only to assist the passing game. Beyond that, the story to watch is how far along Texas gets developing a truly dynamic passing attack, such that even an elite defense that can ignore our run will be challenged to deal not just with Shipley, but with Malcolm Williams and Marquise Goodwin. And so forth.

The Defensive MVP was: Lamarr Houston and Sergio Kindle. Nine tackles for Kindle, 7 for Houston, 3 tackles for loss apiece. Another opponent's game plan brutally disrupted by Texas' ferocious defensive line. There's a lot to love about Sergio Kindle, and if you're just watching him as a pass rusher, you'll miss it. To be sure, he's a good pass rusher right now, with an already great speed rush and, in my view, a lot of yet to be realized potential as he adds more upper body strength and some variety to his moves. It's easy to forget that he's still in some important ways relatively green. In any case, there's so much more to what he's giving us than pass rushing, and he's as likely to be the one blowing up a screen in the flat as a linebacker or defensive back. He plays with intensity you can't teach, which on the first series occasionally leads him to overpursue, once he settles into a groove and the game gets going, he's everything you could ask for in a college end.

As for Houston, I've made no secret about how much I love his abilities, over-zealously proclaiming prior to last season that I thought he could be the best player on the entire defense. In year two as an interior linemen, he might well be if not for the outrageous depth of elite excellence on this defensive roster. No one would be wrong to single out Earl Thomas or Sergio Kindle for top honors, but neither do I hesitate to place Houston right there alongside them. The play we're getting from Kheeston Randall and Ben Alexander has been tremendously valuable, but as much of it has to do with the jobs they're doing, a non-trivial amount of it has to do with Houston's dominant season. It's a damn shame he'll likely have to settle for Second Team All-Big 12.

Overall, there's not much to be said about today's defensive performance, given its dominance represents for this group par for the course. George O'Leary's squad did a nice job in the first half countering our pressure, but as has also become par for the course, Will Muschamp made decisive counter-adjustments in-game, shifting to more zone play and steady diets of both run and zone blitzes. After which the Golden Knights did absolutely nothing.

The offensive Defensive LVP was: N/A. I may never answer this again.

On the Milk Carton: Dan Buckner. Briefly now, because I've already said far more about the game than I intended, I want to raise one final point about the haphazard commitment to running the football. One consequence of remaining disinterested in meaningfully committing to rushing the ball is that in so doing the Greg Smith > Dan Buckner proposition loses most, if not all, of its value. That is, if we're not even going to pretend to be interested in rushing, we'd might as well go with Buckner. Alternatively, if we intend at least to enjoy some benefits from conveying to defenses that we're interested in rushing, it's still not clear that there's any reason not to go with Buckner; sure, the run blocking might be a downgrade, but where we're only haphazardly running as a means to an end, and thus only minimally succeeding in any case, what's the real loss?

To the extent that the plan is either to ignore or only minimally engage the run, roughly the same could be done in the run game with Buckner as with Smith, while the benefits to the passing game are obvious. Of course, I'll say once more that the alternative to those two options is the one I'd prefer: meaningful commitment to running the ball not out of naive belief that it can be a centerpiece, or even a strength, but as an essential ingredient to the passing game being all it can be. We can all agree that Texas will or will not win the national title based on -- at least offensively -- what Colt McCoy does on the field for us. It is at this point well-established that the line between his being the focal point of the offense, and his being the only thing in the offense, is the line between the player who will at times struggle, and one who can win us a national title.

I hope we get it right.

Baylor Fear Factor: 0 out of 10. (5) is the baseline. -5 for no Robert Griffin.

Heading into next week I feel: Steady. The team is in the ideal position we hoped it would be, the defense is a dream, and the offense has over the past three weeks begun to round into form -- if not yet to the point where I'll predict great success against Alabama or Florida, at least to the point where it's almost unimaginable the team could fail to reach Pasadena.

For now, that feels good. It feels great, really. 95% of what a college football fan should care about relates to getting to the title game. The other parts related to maximizing your chance to win it are important for exactly the two teams who actually get there. Insofar as we're on track to give ourselves a chance, this season is at this point a success. We can at this point watch the next four games and, firstly, root for the wins to send us to the Rose Bowl, and second, from those performances spend an entire month talking about how well-suited we are to win it.

So long as we're having that debate in December, I'll be happy. And hopefully, I'll be, well, hopeful. So far, so good.

Hook 'em

Anatomy of Momentum: Drive Before the Half Against OSU

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:41:21 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

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The Context

Good offenses and good teams generally respond after the opponent scores a touchdown. That was the task Colt McCoy and the offense faced after Oklahoma State cut into the early Texas lead after Beau Johnson scored on a one-yard touchdown plunge to make it 17-7. Good offenses also operate well in the two-minute drill -- the Longhorns got the ball with 2:16 left on the clock. The game plan for Greg Davis was clearly to spread the field to take advantage of the Oklahoma State secondary, where Davis felt he had match ups favoring Texas -- that game plan meshed well with the two-minute drill Texas had to run with so little time left on the clock, though a switch to 11 personnel would ultimately help the drive find the end zone.

The other thing that good teams do is score before halftime. A score just before the half against Wyoming helped the Longhorns establish momentum heading into halftime and, when combined with Mack Brown's philosophy of deferring to the second half, scoring before halftime can give Texas two chances to score without the opponent being able to touch the football.

The Longhorns would not be able to start with a short field, however, as Oklahoma State kicker Quinn Sharp put the ball went into the end zone for a touchback. Texas would have to drive 80 yards for a momentum-swinging touchdown. Texas begins the drive with two timeouts.

The Plays

1st and 10 Texas 20

Texas, as they did throughout much of the first half, comes out in an empty set, with Dan Buckner in the flex, James Kirkendoll and Fozzy Whittaker split to the bottom of the screen, and Jordan Shipley and John Chiles split to the top:

OSU has three down linemen, with the Sam linebacker showing blitz and two deep safeties. Notice that James Kirkendoll is uncovered in the slot to the bottom of the screen.

Key Shot

Instead of blitzing the Sam backer, OSU brings the Mike and Will backers, causing a problem in the Texas protection scheme that leaves the strongside defensive end unblocked and headed for McCoy. The hot receiver on the play is Kirkendoll, but McCoy throws behind him incomplete -- probably just as well since a complete pass would have gained little yardage and kept the clock running, draining precious seconds.

2nd and 10 Texas 20

Texas stays with the same personnel group, while Oklahoma State stays with two safeties deep, but walks a defender up on Kirkendoll in the slot this time. Notice that Bill Young also dials up press coverage against Jordan Shipley.

Key Shot

Once again, McCoy looks short to Kirkendoll on a hitch and he breaks a tackle before being stood up by Andre Sexton. It's the most controversial play of the game and one that could have swung the momentum of the game considerably -- as Sexton drives Kirkendoll backwards, stopping his forward progress, he rips the ball out of his hands, seemingly giving Oklahoma State the ball inside the Texas 20 yardline.

A touchdown cuts the Texas lead to 17-14 just before the half. Instead, the referees, correctly in my opinion, rule that Kirkendoll's forward progress was stopped and Texas keeps the ball. Oklahoma State calls a timeout, ostensibly to either challenge the play or force the booth to look at it, but the play cannot be reviewed.

3rd and 6 Texas 24

Same personnel for Texas, except the strong side of the field is now at the top of the screen. OSU has two safeties deep and is not in press coverage against Shipley this time. OSU rushes the linebacker in the middle of the field.

Key Shot

Flushed from the pocket by a twisting OSU linemen, McCoy throws on the run, finding Chiles wide open down the sideline -- Chiles either ran a stop route or broke off his route. Either way, it's the biggest catch of his Texas career for the former quarterback, who gains 16 yards and keeps the drive alive.

1st and 10 Texas 40

Texas keeps the same personnel on the field. Notice that OSU is once again pressing Shipley at the line of scrimmage, with two safeties deep and three down linemen.

Key Shot

Two seconds into the play, seeing no one open downfield, McCoy bails from the pocket and breaks a tackle to pick up two yards. Texas calls a timeout to stop the clock, leaving them with one remaining in the half.

2nd and 8 Texas 42

Texas changes their personnel grouping for the first time on the drive, bringing in EBS and keeping Whittaker in the backfield. Malcolm Williams comes in at split end, while Marquise Goodwin takes over the flanker position. Notice that OSU keeps two deep safeties, while walking the nickel back up close to the line of scrimmage over Shipley.

Key Shot

Since McCoy got a little antsy in the pocket on the last play, Davis calls for max protection, keeping both EBS and Whittaker in to block.

Kyle Hix gets beat on the right side of the line, but McCoy still has a perfect pocket to deliver the football downfield. Given that only three receivers are in the route, McCoy probably knows that Shipley will create enough separation on his out route to be able to deliver the football. Shipley gets the necessary separation and McCoy throws a strike for a 16-yard gain. The OSU safety on that side of the field got so much depth on the snap that he never even got close to Shipley on the play -- it's understandable that OSU didn't want to give up the big play, but the deep coverage should have been close enough to at least make it a smaller window for McCoy to throw into.

1st and 10 Oklahoma State 42

Texas stays with the same personnel, while OSU keeps two safeties deep and three down linemen -- the same look they have shown throughout the drive. Notice that the Mike and Will linebackers are showing blitz.

Key Shot

The linebackers both drop into coverage and EBS and Whittaker both release as a result.

However, none of the receivers gain enough separation for McCoy to deliver a pass, so he heads out of the pocket and towards the sideline, getting out of bounds after picking up two yards, preserving the final Texas timeout.

2nd and 8 Oklahoma State 40

Texas stays in 11 personnel, while Oklahoma State blitzes both the Mike and the Will backers.

Key Shot

With six men on the line of scrimmage to pick up five defenders, the Longhorns pick up the blitz and allow McCoy time to throw downfield to Shipley, who beats Perrish Cox in one-on-one coverage -- the safety deep on that side of the field comes up the first-down marker and stops.

Shipley is open, but McCoy overthrows the pass by several feet -- another replay shows that Shipley cut farther inside than McCoy anticipated, leaving the pass thrown too long. Had McCoy and Shipley been on the same page, the play would have gone for a touchdown.

3rd and 8 Oklahoma State 40

Texas substitutes for the 3rd and long play, taking out EBS and bringing in Dan Buckner to play the flex tight end position, while inserting Chiles at flanker. As usual, Oklahoma State has two deep safeties and three down linemen.

Key Shot

Oklahoma State drops back in man coverage and although no Texas receivers can gain separation, since the defensive backs arent facing McCoy, after he eludes a defensive lineman, he has open field once he leaves the pocket:

McCoy picks up 19 yards on the play and slides down at the 21, avoiding a hit -- McCoy has done much better at avoiding unnecessary hits this season.

1st and 10 Oklahoma State 21

The clock starts after placement of the ball and McCoy gets to the line of scrimmage quickly and spikes the ball to stop the clock.

2nd and 10 Oklahoma State 21

Texas lines up in 11 personnel, with Chiles at split end and Williams at flanker. OSU has three linebackers on the field and three down linemen, with the nickel back lined up well inside of Shipley and a safety over the top.

Key Shot

Oklahoma State blitzes the nickel back and the Sam backer. The line picks up the blitzers well, but Michael Huey and Chris Hall don't communicate well, as Hall picks up the Sam backer and Huey helps out Hix on the defensive end, leaving the defensive tackle free to come through, with only Whittaker standing between him and the quarterback. The tackle sheds Whittaker quickly and forces McCoy to throw the ball away, but picks up a personal foul pentalty for hitting McCoy in the helmet after he released the football:

1st and 10 Oklahoma State 11

Texas keeps the same personnel on the field, while Oklahoma State rushes four and drops back in man-to-man coverage.

Key Shot

The play is designed to go to Shipley on a double move -- a curl and go -- but Malcolm Williams breaks open running the back of the end zone and McCoy finds him as the pocket begins to collapse.

It's not an easy catch for Williams, who had to fully extend while making sure that he got his foot down, but McCoy helped by throwing an extremely catchable ball -- had the Texas quarterback really zipped it, the ball might have gone through the hands of the talented receiver.

Final Totals

Ten plays for 80 yards, 2:09 expired. Four of seven passing for 47 yards by McCoy, who also added 23 yards on three carries. One potential touchdown ovethrown on the slightly miscommunication by McCoy and Shipley. One catch for four yards by Kirkendoll. One catch for 16 yards by Chiles. One catch for 16 yards by Shipley. One catch for 11 yards and a touchdown by Williams. One 10-yard roughing the passer penalty on Oklahoma State. One miscommunication on the offensive line between Huey and Hall that allowed the defensive tackle to get in the backfield and hit McCoy.

The Verdict

Texas dodged a major bullet early in the drive when the officials ruled Kirkendoll's forward progressed stopped, negating the potential fumble and recovery by Oklahoma State. However, Kirkendoll must do a better job of protecting the football with both hands in traffic and have a better understanding of when he can no longer pick up yards on a play and is better off just going down.

The drive also featured a smart adjustment by Greg Davis. After getting little out of the empty set and having McCoy leave the pocket relatively quickly, he went back to 11 personnel to give McCoy more protection and allow him to stand in the pocket longer. It almost paid off with the pass to Shipley before eventually resulting in the touchdown pass to Williams.

The other key element of the drive was the scrambling of McCoy. Even though he did leave the pocket early on his two two-yard scrambles, he avoided potentially drive-killing sacks that would have also forced the Longhorns to use their last timeout, preserving it in the case of emergency. More importantly, though, it showed just how difficult it is to defend the Longhorns when McCoy leaves the pocket, especially in man coverage -- his 19-yard run was probably the biggest positive play of the drive before the touchdown pass to Williams.

Scoring before the half is also a major swing of momentum and it virtually put the game out of reach at that point, as the Longhorns went up 24-7 -- there was no way that defense was going to give up 17 points in the second half. By scoring the touchdown, Texas demoralized Oklahoma State going into halftime and completely took the biggest crowd in Oklahoma State history out of the game for the remainder of the contest. There's also something about Texas running the two-minute offense, as McCoy has seemingly found his rhythm several times this season just before halftime, notably against Wyoming to finally jumpstart the Longhorn offense.

Texas at Oklahoma State: OSU Offense Preview

Peter Bean — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:10:55 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Oklahoma State tight end Wilson Youman acknowledges that Brandon Pettigrew is missed, but not by as much as you think.

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Hopefully you've been reading TES's invaluable State of Oklahoma series -- outstanding stuff for two straight months. But now, with just 48 hours to kickoff, and having just spent the past 6 hours watching OSU game film, I've got my own set of thoughts on this Oklahoma State football team. First up, the offense...

OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK: Zac Robinson is both a bit better of a passer, and less capable a runner, than he's generally given credit for. After Robinson took a beating down the stretch last season, Mike Gundy has reduced his quarterback's usage in the running game. Which is not to say OSU doesn't put Robinson's solid mobility to use: The Pokes still run the zone read a dozen or so times a game and they love to roll Robinson on bootlegs to his right, where he can be a threat to run or pass (he throws very well moving that direction). Robinson has developed into an excellent quick-strike passer on short routes, throwing quickly and accurately from a high release; he's not afraid to throw downfield and has a strong enough arm to deliver some great strikes, but the accuracy wanes. Especially with Dez Bryant out, I'm guessing Muschamp will aggressively challenge Robinson's short and intermediate passing game with Earl Thomas, hanging Gideon back to handle OSU's deep challenges. I'm sure Gideon is being drilled over and over about not biting on play action, which Mike Gundy uses frequently, and well.

RUNNING BACKS: While the latest report is that if Kendall Hunter (ankle injury) plays at all he'll be limited to 8-10 touches, it won't be of too big a concern to OSU -- like Texas, the Cowboys feature several good-not-great tailbacks who are roughly equally capable of succeeding in their rush scheme. Assuming Hunter is out, senior Keith Toston will be the starter; while at 6-0, 214 he's a bigger and stronger rusher than Hunter, it's at this point unclear whether, against this Texas defense, there's any advantage in one style over the other. Watching Toston over his past three games, I'm not convinced he's not the better tailback for them, anyway -- he hits holes with plenty of speed and strength and Hunter's not so elusive that he's clearly superior. In any case, OSU's rushing success will come down to the war in the trenches. Spelling Toston will be Beau Johnson, a bowling ball, power back who rumbles downhill like Cody Johnson, with better speed and less strength. Coming out of the backfield, Toston's an improving receiver who Robinson is good at finding both on designed plays and check-downs; Muck and Robinson will need to be on their toes as coverage LBs on Saturday.

TIGHT ENDS: For all the time we've spent thanking the football gods that Brandon Pettigrew is gone, I was stunned to see in film that OSU is in such good shape with their tight ends. The guy that really impresses me is sophomore Wilson Youman, an enormous, strong, technically sound blocker with surprising speed and improving pass catching abilities. Count on OSU taking multiple shots up the seam with him like Colorado did -- again, Gideon's awareness will be key. As much recent frustration as we've had with our own offense, watching OSU it's easy to see how much better we might be with a tight end or two who can block for the run game and release out for a pass. Though the Cowboys operate out of the 11-personnel more often than not, they use three tight ends throughout the game and will go to a two tight end set a dozen snaps each contest; when they do, they run the zone read to the short side around 50% of the time. When fielding two TEs, OSU will usually bring out Youman and either Justin Horton (who possesses nice quickness but struggles in blocking) or, increasingly, Cooper Bassett, a big-bodied freshman who blocks pretty well and is easy to lose track of in the passing game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Obviously, the big absence is Dez Bryant, but the Pokes have steadily resuscitated the passing attack in the weeks since his suspension. With 19 catches over the past two weeks, sophomore Hubert Anyiam is Robinson's favorite new target, but he's a very different receiver than Bryant. Anyiam isn't a big guy, for one thing, and he can be pushed around at the point of attack. He runs good quick routes, though, and while his vertical speed is merely good, his lateral movement is excellent; he'll make guys miss. If fellow sophomore Keith Cooper were at Texas Tech, he'd finish the season with 70 catches and 800 yards -- he's not particularly fast and rarely stretches the field, but he's a zone buster specialist, runs great routes, has terrific hands, and will catch a ball as he's taking a lick. (Yes, he's white.) When OSU goes four-wide, they'll mix between split aces and trips to the left, and Texas will need to keep an eye on the freshman Tracey Moore, who's OSU's version of Dan Buckner -- big kid with solid speed, great hands, and a dangerous ability to get open 15 yards downfield.

OFFENSIVE LINE: The Pokes are strong at center and at each tackle, but have question marks at each guard position. Right guard Anthony Morgan plays far too vertically and can be muscled around; left guard Noah Franklin has good feet but lacks good drive strength. Right tackle Brady Bond is solid, but the real prize on the line is the left tackle Russell Okung -- you won't see many guys that big who can move that well. And oh does OSU like to move him -- I'm not sure I've ever seen a team shoot and pull their left tackle as often as does Mike Gundy with Okung. In their base 11-personnel, OSU loves to run to the right through the B gap, sealing the edge with Youman on the outside while pulling Okung over to the middle to crush a linebacker or stunting end.

BOTTOM LINE: I underrated this Cowboys offense prior to watching the film; they do miss Pettigrew, but this new kid Youman is a beast, the offensive line is excellent in pass protection / solid in run blocking, and the loss of Bryant -- while clearly a loss -- has been something of a blessing in disguise, forcing them to diversify their attack. Gundy and Robinson are at their best when the Cowboys are an offense you have to respect both on the ground and through the air; with each passing week in the post-Bryant era, that's becoming more a concern. They're running the ball well enough, using their tight ends in the passing game more, and finding a solid, if unspectacular, group of receivers with whom they can move the chains.

The counterpunch to that, of course, is to try to make OSU one-dimensional, and I expect that's what we'll see Muschamp open with in the first half. I expect Texas to play to the run and short passing games to test Zac Robinson and Mike Gundy on their willingness/ability to keep us honest by going deep. If they won't, or can't, the Cowboys are containable. If they hit a big play or two early, the chess game will be on.

Tomorrow: previewing the OSU defense.

In the Trenches - Anatomy of a Muschamp Adjustment

burnt in ny — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:59:28 -0000

So there were the Horns, having a 21-0 lead on the road, with the ball and all the momentum. Three plays later, Texas comes up a yard short and has to punt. Missouri then takes the ball down the field with a series of running plays, eventually scoring a touchdown when Missouri's offensive formation resulted in Chykie Brown having 1 on 1 coverage of Jared Perry. An excellent throw by Gabbert yielded 6 for the Tigers. OK, it's 21-7, and the offense had looked weak again on the previous series. In days gone by, the track meet would be on, with the opposing offense marching up and down the field and the Texas offense would have had to keep pace. Think Texas Tech 2007. But not in 2009. Not with Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator. First the offense did their part, overcoming a dropped pass by Malcolm Williams with a brilliantly executed screen to Fozzy Whittaker and then once again using Marquise Goodwin as a decoy to free Shipley for a TD pass. Then it was back to the defense, and, as we fans have become almost spoiled to experience this season, came the MUSCHAMP ADJUSTMENT.

Exactly as I planned, men, exactly as I planned!

As the offense, and ergo the offensive line, finally found itself in the first half, I decided to focus the majority of this week's column on the defense. And the epitome of the defensive effort in this game was a subtle but critical change in defensive strategy that largely shut down the MU running game. As an example of many such adjustments Muschamp has made over the past 19 games for Texas, I'll analyze it in detail along with a few comments about the offense after the jump.

In one drive, Missouri outrushes Texas' four previous opponents combined.

So what happened? Missouri got an extra "tight end" on the field in the form of starting left tackle Elvis Fisher (72). Fisher was replaced by backup center J.T. Beasley (67). This effectively put six offensive linemen on the field with three wide receivers still to spread the field. They lined up Denario Alexander in the slot to the opposite side of the two tackles, whilch pulled Earl Thomas to that side of the field. At the same time, Texas lined up Kheeston Randall and Lamarr Alexander in gaps 1 (between the center and guard) or 2 (over the guard) (see purple circles in diagram below). During the drive, Missouri shifted their strong side with Elvis Fisher as tight end. The coupling of these formations left Texas in an unbalanced defense with their arguably four best defensive players (circled in yellow) on one side of the field and allowed Missouri to exploit mismatches on the opposite (strong side)

On the drive, Missouri mostly ran away from Kindle and pulled either guard Kurtis Gregory (78) or tackles Dan Hoch or J.T. Beasley to provide extra blockers at the point of attack. No play epitomized Missouri's success, and the source of it, more than Derrick Washington's 13 yard run for a first down to the Texas 14 yard-line with about 8 minutes left in the first half. The formation allowed MU to double team Sam Acho (81), put a tackle on Rodderick Muckelroy (38), let center Tim Barnes (62) push Kheeston Randall out of the play and pull J.T. Beasley (67) to block Keenan Robinson (1). Sergio Kindle is never blocked on the play.

Note how the play looks defended because of Randall's penetration and Robinson flying in to fill the gap behind him. Instead (see below), because of the mismatches on Acho and Muckelroy, Washington cuts inside Randall into a huge hole created by Dan Hoch (77) doing a niceuncalled infant grip on Sam Acho (purple circle) and Kurtis Gregory getting off the initial block on Acho to double team Robinson. Blake Gideon, for some reason is late getting over and has to take a deep angle on Washington to avoid giving up a TD.

So the next series, Muschamp ADJUSTS by essentially shifting to a 3-4 alignment, with Randall at the nose (0 technique) and Kindle as an extra linebacker. Houston is now the strongside defensive end playing over the 4 or 5 gaps, with no one outside him. Perhaps anticipating Muschamp's adjustment, Pinkel changes to a 20 personnel, with an extra back, Matt Davis (35) in the backfield, and two WR to either side. The only (apparent) advantage MU has in this formation is the ability to double team Randall in the middle.

Note the more balanced distribution of Texas best players (although part of this is the placement of Denario Alexander in the slot opposte the tight end, which puts Earl Thomas behind Kindle).

The example play from this ultimately ill-fated drive is on second down, a sweep with MU's speed back De'Vion Moore (26). The idea is for Alexander to crack back on Kindle and for Davis (35) to block upfield on Earl Thomas, and for Dan Hoch (77) to seal Lamarr Houston. As you might suspect, all these matchups favor Texas, especially now that Kindle is not playing DE and can turn to face Alexander's block rather than being hit from the side.

The result? Houston blows by Hoch like Hurricane Katrina, Randall ties up three (!) MU blockers in the middle (purple circle). Kindle abuses Alexander, and Thomas just runs by Matt Davis for a joint collision and a loss of a yard. All three plays on the drive were disrupted by Houston, who could no longer be double-teamed. On every play, Randall stood up Missouri's double teams, freeing Acho and Houston and Robinson to fill gaps or harass Gabbert. In retrospect, one wonders what Pinkel was thinking in his playcalling and why he got away from the 3-tackle offensive line formation that produced the success on the previous drive. Perhaps, because of the poor field position and only 1:45 left in the half, he thought he needed a more pass-friendly formation but regardless, Muschamp's adjustments shifted the advantage from Missouri to Texas, with immediate results.

Missouri is pinned inside their 10, decides to rugby kick, and Curtis Brown blocks the punt, Malcolm Williams recovers, and it's Texas 35-7. Game. Set. Match.

The Screen Game

Now that Fozzy Whittaker is the #1 RB and is playing well on all 3 downs, including pass blocking, Texas has added the screen to their arsenal in a big way. This puts new expectations for the offensive line, and over the past three games, we've learned a bit about how successful these screens are likely to be. Against Missouri, the Horns ran two screens. One went for 17 yards, following excellent downfield blocks by Michael Huey and Chris Hall, and a solid block against a defender chasing from the rear by Charlie Tanner. The other screen went for one yard even though it was equally well set up and timed because Charlie "Tunnel Vision" Tanner didn't see the nearest and most threatening defender, who sliced in behind the blocking to stop Whittaker. Against Oklahoma, the screen was moderately successful (7 yards), but again, defenders sliced in behind Tanner to make the tackle. Texas also ran a screen against Colorado out of the flex TE formation, but Dan Buckner's missed block caused the play to be stopped for a minimal gain.

Prognosis: The screen pass to Whittaker could become an excellent component of the newly diversified Texas offense, but perhaps it needs to be run to the right behind Michael Huey instead of to the left behind Tanner.

Offensive Line Report

After six games, the "sick child" of the 2009 Longhorns is officially the offensive line. It is the leading cause of sleepless nights for fans and lost thumbnails for Colt McCoy. Against Missouri, they earned these grades.

Adam Ulatoski A- An absolute rock in the run game, number 74 is still showing vulnerability to bull rushes followed by quick inside moves from defensive ends in the passing game.

Charlie Tanner B+ Tanner seems to have gotten over the hurdle of picking up blitzes but still struggles at times with picking out the right defender to block on downfield runs and screens (see above).

Chris Hall B- Struggled with his snapping all night - Colt made him look good with a couple of athletic grabs, but one bad snap led to a sack. Chris still struggles with the cut blocking needed for effective double teams in the Horns' zone blocking schemes. Nevertheless, his blocking calls are usually on and the whole line plays better when Hall, as opposed to David Snow, is in at center.

Michael Huey A- Slowed by a high ankle sprain since the ULM game, Huey was replaced by David Snow after a miserable Colorado game, but came back in to start and play well in the second half against Oklahoma. Huey blocked magnificently on several running plays and was solid in pass protection except for one play where Terrell Rosonno (I believe it was) blew him 5 yards backward. Huey should become stronger as his ankle continues to heal.

Kyle Hix C Texas' largest lineman seems to get physically dominated early in every game, and it's not clear why. Perhaps being matched up against future NFLers Gerald McCoy and Jeremy Beal of OU is too much for Hix, but redshirt freshman Aldon Smith of Missouri? His early failures can make Colt have a short clock in his head before he feels like he has to throw, which can lead to an inefficient passing offense and an over-reliance on short looks to Jordan Shipley. The domino effect of Hix being dominated early in the game may even affect the playcalling, although Greg Davis' eclectic portfolio prevents any real analysis. But early game failures, which fortunately had no impact on the outcome in this game, start sending the message about what you can't do rather than what you can.

Greg Smith Saga

The player who easily leads the team in fan groans over the past two seasons is Greg Smith, an offensive lineman converted from a high school TE to a guard and then back to a TE. Known misaffectionately on the site as the "Extra Blocking Surface" or EBS, Smith is now the favorite son of Greg Davis, who lauded what having Smith enabled the Horns to do once again on his "From the Film Room" report (now up on page 2 videos on the main page of MB-TF). Greg had a typical game against Missouri: decent but somewhat inconsistent run-blocking, and a presence that allowed Texas to block well on zone read and counter plays in the first series. He also caught the only ball thrown to him, and seems to have improved speed in escaping the desultory linebacker usually assigned to him. In some big game in the future, Smith will make a couple of key first down catches.

On the other hand, Smith is still a liability in pass protection. Against the Tigers, he was manhandled by Aldon Smith, on one play that led to one of Colt's two sacks on the day. In some big game in the future, Smith will get overwhelmed again leading to pressure or a sack on McCoy and a turnover.

That's a risk the Horns are just going to have to take, because Smith's presence on the field shifts the blocking schemes to allow the offensive line to have two initial double teams up front, a greater likelihood of the backdoor cut for Whittaker, and greater opportunities in the zone read. It is clear that the Horns want to be able to run the ball up to 5-6 plays in a row, and that's just not possible without a true TE on the field.

The Man in the Middle

Kheestion Randall and Ben Alexander have been incredibly pleasant surprises this year at defensive tackle (see the section above on the benefits of putting Kheeston Randall at the nose. Kheeston has emerged as the clear starter over Alexander in the last two weeks, largely because he has become the first DT since perhaps Frank Okam who is big and strong enough to take on two gaps. That is he lines up in the nose or directly in front of the center and stands him up, and then shifts to the right or left if a running back tries to come through either hole. Randall has shown outstanding quickness on slants, and has gotten close enough to the opposing QB enough times to draw 3 personal foul roughing the QB penalties. Randall is just a sophomore, and if he keeps developing, he could remove worry about the center of the Texas defence and free playmakers like Eddie Jones, Alex Okafor, and Reggie Wilson for the next two years.

Crossfire Q&A: Texas

RPT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

Fear this man. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The game against Texas this week has given us the chance to collaborate with one of the best sites in the business, as we welcome GhostofBigRoy from Burnt Orange Nation here to RMN to give us a better idea of what to expect from the Texas Longhorns on Saturday.

RMN: Before the season, my colleague Bill said he expected a regression from Colt McCoy's numbers, and the stats so far seem to have vindicated him in many respects. What's been the difference between Colt '08 v. Colt '09?

BON: It's not a simple answer, so I'll go ahead and divide it into a couple of points. First, the major change is defensive adjustments. OU blitzed a lot during the first half and so did Wyoming at times, but most teams have sat with two deep safeties and forced Texas to complete passes underneath.

Last season, Texas did that well and could move methodically down the field with the controlled passing game, but the failure to do so this year relates to the second factor, which is the loss of Quan Cosby and Brandon Collins, two players McCoy relied on to complete third-down passes, in the case of Cosby also the hitch passes that he could turn into solid gains and Collins as his hot receivers on blitzes. McCoy has not established that level of comfort with the current receivers, who have struggled to create separation and, frankly, McCoy didn't help much early in the season because he was uncharacteristically inaccurate at points early in the year.

Those struggles have passed now, but the bottom line is that the receiving corps, notably John Chiles and James Kirkendoll, has been a disappointment overall and defenses have caught up with the Texas offense unveiled last season against Oklahoma, particularly in defending the crossing routes Texas used to convert many third downs last season and either disguising coverages to confuse McCoy's pre-snap reads or also using their coverage look to manipulate his read into something easily defensible.

RMN: The Texas defense is giving up an absurdly low 3.6 yards per play, tied for tops in the nation. How is the credit divided here? Has Texas amassed enough talent that schemes don't matter, or does Will "Boom" Muschamp get a lion's share of the credit too?

BON: Dividing the credit equally doesn't seem to be fair to the job that Will Muschamp has done at Texas. The recruiting has played a big part of it - guys like Sergio Kindle and Eddie Jones were the bluest of blue chips coming out of high school, but the staff did an excellent job identifying underrated talents like Roddrick Muckelroy, from a school East Texas school, and the Acho brothers, who played at a private school in Dallas. Don't underestimate, then, the collective recruiting the staff has done.

There is a ton of talent on that defense and none of those players were recruited by Muschamp. That being said, what Muschamp has turned this defense into is completely of his own creation, particularly Kindle, who was unbelievably lost in the shuffle during his first two years on campus - Muschamp took his talent and maximized it in a way the previous defensive coordinators had not. The previous coaches wanted to make him into a linebacker who could drop into coverage. Muschamp unleashed him on opposing quarterbacks because he recognized that Kindle is best served playing downhill, the skill that made him so highly regarded coming out of high school in the first place. In that way, Kindle is perhaps a perfect example of the overall effect Muschamp has had - players are now in a position to succeed and they are doing so.

RMN: The benching of James Kirkendoll isn't much of a surprise after his Zidane-esque headbutt in Dallas, but what gives on the benching of John Chiles (who looks like a freak athlete) and Dan Buckner (who I thought was a mismatch nightmare and one of UT's biggest weapons)? Is Texas deep enough at receiver that it really doesn't matter, or is Mack Brown just trying to send a quick message?

BON: The issue for Chiles is simple - he hasn't been producing and can't consistently get separation in his routes. Unfortunately, whatever athleticism he has, and it was certainly of great repute coming to Texas, it just hasn't translated onto the field for whatever reason. As for Buckner, Mack Brown said that he's concerned about his knee, but really Buckner is going to lose some snaps to Greg Smith because the coaching staff seems to desire a greater emphasis on the running game. That's the short answer. If anyone is interested in the treatise I wrote about the issue, it's here.

Basically, the answer to your question is both. Brown is trying to send a message (if it's a message to Buckner it's to block better), but the main thing to take from this is that the coaching staff finally decided it was time to let talented players like true freshman and two-time Junior Olympic long-jump champion Marquise Goodwin, who can certainly create separation with his blend of incredible speed and ability to get into and out of cuts, and Malcolm Williams, the star of last year's Tech game who has had trouble getting into the field this season, reportedly because of a combination of dropped balls and less-than-ideal work ethic at times in practice.

RMN: Can ANY team expect to run on Texas this year, much less a Missouri team that's been struggling on the ground all season?

BON: Looking down the line, Oklahoma State is a concern because they racked up more than 200 yards last year against a unit that didn't get run on much, just like this current one, and Alabama and Florida are both concerns, for slightly different reasons in a possible national championship game appearance. Other than that, the flat answer is no. Texas has given up 29 yards rushing in the last four games. Muschamp puts a big emphasis on stopping the running game on first and second downs to create tough situations for the offense, but still manages not to give up many big plays in the passing game on early downs. Missouri will have an extremely difficult time running the football against Texas, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

RMN: Seeing what you've seen this season, if you were the opponent (in this case, Mizzou), how would you go about attacking the Texas defense? How would you defend the Texas offense?

BON: Can I pass on trying to formulate a plan to attack the Texas defense? Thinking about this question makes me extremely glad that the Longhorns won't ever have to face a Muschamp-coached defense. Teams haven't had much success at all this season doing much of anything. Colorado had success on two touchdowns isolating a tight end on a linebacker in coverage, but Muschamp adjusts so quickly I'm not sure he's going to allow that to happen again and I don't know anything about Missouri having a threat in that aspect of the game like the two excellent tight ends they've had recently.

Other than that, Tech had some success with double moves against Chykie and Curtis Brown, but on one of the plays I'm thinking of with Chykie giving up a touchdown, Muschamp blamed the blitz not getting there fast enough. In fact, if Texas sends a couple blitzers and the Mizzou line can hold for a second, Gabbert could be able to find something downfield and that is probably their best chance for a big play. Really though, other than a couple breakdowns in concentration by Chykie, the secondary hasn't given up much this season, a huge change from last year. As for as defending the Texas offense, I think I would blitz some on early downs to try to get the Longhorns behind the chains and then sit back in coverage in obvious passing situations and keep everything in front. In my opinion, that's pretty much the book on the Texas offense, but it may be changing now with an increased emphasis on the running game and downfield passing off of play action. If I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, though, I would just play by the book until Texas proves that it can run the ball consistently.

RMN: Bonus -- Should we hide our women and children when Sergio Kindle lines up across from the Missouri offensive line?

BON: Kindle is a beast, but I'm not going to predict any serious threats to the health of Blaine Gabbert just because the two times I've done that this season, Kindle was effective, but had relatively quiet games in terms of massive, Taylor Potts-like hits on the quarterback. Don't get me wrong, it's safe to say that Tiger fans should be afraid of Kindle, but with the way that the rest of the Texas defense is playing right now, it's really the whole unit that should be downright terrifying.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

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Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.

Texas Offense About to Take Complete 180

GhostofBigRoy — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:29:37 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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Offensive identity from defense?

Last season, Texas would have struggled to win a brutal, low-scoring contest like Saturday's game -- the defense just wasn't consistently good enough to win that type of game. This season, however, the defense is clearly good enough to carry the Longhorns as far as they want to go. It's up to the offense to protect the ball better and, perhaps, control the clock -- this is something Mack Brown clearly realizes ($). This 2009 team does not need to score 45 points every game to win.

The logical question, then, is could the offensive identity be changing this week, in the middle of the season because of a desire to shorten the game knowing that the defense isn't likely to give up much more than two touchdowns against most opponents?

Consider the first half of the OU game. After a promising start to the game with a misdirection draw to Fozzy Whittaker, Greg Davis inexplicably abandoned the running game for almost the entire first half and the offense struggled mightily. Days later, Davis admitted the mistake. Way to do some soul searching, GD.

Oklahoma had the football for a little more than 15 minutes in the first half. Not including the last position at the end of the half, Texas had four drives of three plays and three drives of four plays -- that doesn't exactly give the defense much time to rest. Think Will Muschamp might have gone to Greg Davis at halftime and told him in no uncertain, Coach Boom-enhanced terminology that he needed to run the friggin' ball in the second half?

Since opposing defenses, surprise, surprise, have caught up with the four-wide look of the Longhorns, either blitzing like Oklahoma did in classic Brent Venables Reflexive Blitz action -- if Venables ever has his head cut off, he would probably run around in circles briefly and then call for a blitz -- or drop eight into zone coverage, the coaching staff seems to think a change is necessary. Brown said the four-wide flex offense isn't something that you can run "consistently."

Except the Longhorns did run it consistently for more than the last half of the season. All sarcasm aside, Brown is right, though, as Ohio State certainly demonstrated that defenses were starting to figure out ways to defend the Longhorns and as a terrible unit like Colorado more than amply demonstrated. The shelf life of that particular offense and that particularly set of plays has effectively expired as of this point.

Coaches want, need hot, extra Extra Blocking Surface action

It's a surface! On the edge of the line! Texas shall become the running team everyone has always wanted! Three hundred yards per game, guaranteed! Colt McCoy will be able to stand in the pocket for minutes on end! Hours! The Longhorns will hike the ball and, with their six men blocking, run out the clock in the first half on their first offensive play from scrimmage as McCoy relaxes in the gentle, cosseting pocket.

Who is this offensive savior, corrector-man of all offensive woes, soothing balm for GD rash? The second coming of Brandon Pettigrew, crossed with Jermaine Gresham? Not quite, but he was an offensive lineman, so he must be able to block. Right? At least be able to block?

Of course, I'm referring to the incomparable Greg Smith, everyone's favorite Extra Blocking Surface.

Real talk time -- the bottom line is that Smith has five career receptions for 26 yards, is mostly known in the passing game for the occasional volleyball set and can be covered by your five-year-old nephew when he runs a route in the flat. Stretching the seam? If you think that's possible I've got some prime oceanfront property in New Mexico you might be interested in.

So it's obvious that Smith doesn't help much in the passing game, despite the nice play for a first down against Oklahoma where he faked a block and then leaked out for the pass -- that will be about the only way Smith will help the passing game and probably one Davis needs to dial up every game for EBS to be even marginally effective catching the football.

The issue is that Smith hasn't been that great blocking. For from savior status, in fact. The extra protection against Oklahoma in the first half didn't really provide McCoy that much protection, as he got hit 14 times. Fourteen! In one half!

Furthermore, either Smith or Adam Ulatoski missed an assignment or the line protection call was incorrect, because McCoy's first fumble was a result of Auston English coming free off the edge. Completely free, between two players who decided that protecting their quarterback from Engilsh wasn't a big deal. That's not all, as Smith also missed a run block and a pass block and committed a false start penalty. The rest of the offensive line was demonstrably worse, but the point is that for the season he's been merely average both in short-yardage blocking and in normal blocking situations.

He provides quite the surface, though. His back is, after all, wider than any other tight end Texas can throw out there.

That whole "edge" thing

Brown believes that the extra edge (or surface!) provided by the tight end permits greater freedom in the running game, pointing out that Texas Tech only runs three running plays -- the screen, draw, and zone. The counter isn't possible because both the linemen on the backside pull.

So having that extra edge in the game allows the Longhorns to run the counter play, which has been effective at times this season, unless the defense sees it coming and slides an end inside a gap and EBS can't get to him. But that's really a problem of predictability and defenses playing tendencies.

In Brown's estimation, it also allows for more sweeps, like the new series with DJ Monroe in motion shown for the first time against Oklahoma that includes two counter plays that would not be possible without the tight end on the field.

Whither Dan Buckner?

Talk of playing EBS virtually all the time makes it sound like Dan Buckner won't play much for stretches in the foreseeable future. After the Oklahoma game, Greg Davis tried to stress that it was a difficult decision to sit Buckner for most of the game -- the guy has been the second-best receiver for the Longhorns this season and Davis is smart enough to realize that. Perhaps the decision is understandable given the emphasis on the running game, but then Mack Brown mentioned that Buckner has a sore knee. Is that an excuse for not playing him?

Really, the elephant in the room here is Buckner's blocking ability. Remember the stupid shovel pass that Davis tried to run twice against Colorado that everyone hates? Perhaps instead of just making a foolish play call, Davis was testing Buckner to put him in a one-on-one situation where he would have to make the block for the play to work -- he was putting Buckner front and center. Buckner failed. Additionally, there was a bootleg for McCoy against Texas Tech where Buckner was McCoy's personal protector out on the edge and missed on his block, leading to McCoy being dropped near the line of scrimmage when he could have kicked up yardage and a first down had Buckner done his job. Why not bootleg on second and short, it gives the quarterback a good run/pass option. Not so successful when there's a major failed block involved.

Against OU, Buckner missed a run block in his limited action, raising the legitimate question of whether he can provide any help in the running game at this point. The coaches seem to think not. Is it simply a question of lack of effort by the admitted goofball or is he just not any good at it? Perhaps some of it is the scheme, as Buckner could provide some crack-back blocks given his proximity to the offensive line -- heck, James Rodgers of Oregon State does an excellent job of that and he's listed at 5-7, but that tactic is not something I can ever recall Texas using. How the coaches ask the flex tight end to block will have to be re-evaluated during the off-season to develop more ways for the flex tight end to help block in the running game.

For the short term, perhaps, then, this benching of Buckner is both a wake-up call about his blocking and a way to afford him fewer reps to keep his knee healthy, as he has certainly been hobbling around between plays almost the entire season.

The H-back option

Way back in the summer, while I was obsessing about the Florida running game as I worked on my Eyes of Texas article critiquing the running game, I was also obsessing about the possibilities of Barrett Matthews at H-back, particularly running the shovel option -- obviously, the two obsessions intersected. After seeing Matthews lined up on the line of scrimmage as a tight end and how much smaller he is than the other lineman, the more convinced I am that Matthews is indeed an H-back/fullback with the capability of lining up as a wide receiver, rather than a traditional tight end lined up in a three-point stance.

Many spread teams enamored with running four and five wide receivers out onto the field experienced similar problems to the Longhorns early in the decade -- it was difficult to run the football and teams were teeing off blitzing at times. As explained by the inimitable Chris Brown:

Whereas from 1999-2005 or so spread teams thought it to their advantage to be four and five wide most of the game to fix the defense's personnel, in the last four or five they have begun using these H-back types more because of their versatility in the run game: they can be lead blockers, they can kick out the EMLOS [End Man on Line Of Scrimmage] on power, they can pull and trap or lead to the opposite side, and they can be used in pass protection. In this way you've seen a bit of a synthesis with the spread teams in getting what they want and yet co-opting more traditional looks, which used extra bodies for a reason.

From Rich Rodriguez to Urban Meyer to Gus Malzahn, many of the spread gurus in the college game are using H-backs, as Brown points out in his post, which is really focusing on the power running play. For teams like the Longhorns, the versatility of an H-back would work with the (supposed) offensive philosophy of being multiple out of a base personnel package. Texas doesn't have any talented traditional tight ends right now, so the coaching staff needs to adjust to the available players, just like they did moving DJ Grant and Dan Buckner to the flex and, of course, Jordan Shipley last season.

Using Barrett Matthews at H-back is an easy solution to getting an extra blocker into the running game while still being able to flex him out as a receiver to take advantage of match ups against linebackers. Deploying him in a three-point stance just doesn't make sense given his skill set and after seeing the nasty streak that he has in the blocking game, I want to see it on the field.

Practically, though, it isn't likely to happen, at least not now. The coaches aren't just going to create a position on offense they haven't used since dabbling in Blaine Irby-as-H-back near the end of 2007 smack in the middle of this year.

They might completely change the focus, personnel packages, and some plays of the offense, but won't put in the power play using an H-back or the trap and leading plays Brown mentions. Tuck all that information away for the offseason, then.

Shovel option!

Pistol!

Motion!

Sorry, I really am trying to move on...

Running Game Moving Forward

So what will the Longhorns actually do to improve the often-ineffective running game?

Davis commented that the zone read play was a good response to blitzing players because it forces gap assignment football, just like virtually any option play. Why did it take Davis so long to realize what he needed to do to counter OU's blitzes? Who knows. Argh. Venturing back into the realm of the knowable, the zone read may return for the Longhorns until teams really start scraping linebackers and forcing McCoy to keep it every time. At the very least, the threat of the play should slow down some of the Venables Reflex-style blitzing.

The mantra from the coaching staff all season when discussing McCoy running the ball has been one of limiting his hits. In the Oklahoma game, that could most effectively have been accomplished by the offensive line doing its job in pass protection. Fourteen hits! In one half! The danger doesn't lie in McCoy running the football, as he is infinitely more aware of getting down this season and sliding instead of taking big hits -- the passing game is the biggest concern for him being injured.

Therefore, in a strange paradox, McCoy may actually be safer running the football, especially on quarterback draws, where the center and running back can block two linebackers, leaving fewer players in the immediate area of McCoy looking to take his head off than he generally faced in the dead and dying pocket against Oklahoma during the first half. Fourteen hits!

The misdirection draw play used on the first offensive play of the game that picked up good yardage with Fozzy Whittaker is a play that should be used once or twice a game going forward. In addition, the Longhorns have now unbelievably not only called two screen passes to running backs in the last two games, but actually done so successfully. It's a de-facto running play and it should usually help slow down the blitz.

WildHorn dead or dying

See above sub-title. Too much time was spent on this abortion several weeks ago, so I'll just say that the coaches completely half-assed this formation and set it up for failure, just like the Q package. Should have seen that one coming. The only way to save the formation is to insert Marquise Goodwin, who will replace Chiles on the field, ostensibly, into the trigger-man position and actually start running the Wildcat series. And that would make way too much sense.

The coaches aren't completely inured to the appeal of that series, however, as they actually started using a variation of it against Oklahoma. Brown apparently had to bite his tongue last week when being harangued by the media about the complete and utter inability to run the ball against Colorado, but he managed not to prematurely unveil the misdirection and other wrinkles saved just for Oklahoma. Congratulations, Mack, you are the master of deception.

As the WildHorn dies a slow death of suffocation and neglect, the spirit of the Wildcat series lives on with the Texas offense. Amazingly. Of all the (several) wrinkles in the running game on Saturday, the actual use of some series-based football with DJ Monroe, Fozzy Whittaker, and Colt McCoy was the most astounding, but maybe it's just because the shock the massive void of suck that was the Texas offense throughout much of the first half completely subsumed the shock that I felt at the use of an actual, honest-to-God misdirection play, proving that the coaching staff had in fact heard of the existence of such plays.

But back to the series-based football. The whole point of these changes is to stop teams from easily using tendencies to stop the offense. Oklahoma, or instance, is excellent at scheming for tendencies, but last year's game proved inconclusively that Venables is terrible at adjusting on the fly -- the anti-Muschamp, if you will. Or a Gene Chizik clone, if you prefer. Enter the rushing series -- each play works until the defense takes it away, then the counter works. Then the counter to the counter. In essence, the offensive coordinator should have to do nothing more than exploit whichever play the defense isn't covering. So simple a caveman coordinator can do it! Yes, even Greg Davis.

The downfall, the dreaded "c" word that derailed the Q and the QHorn -- commitment. Gasp. Yes, Davis must commit to the plays -- give Monroe the ball on the jet sweep (a version of the Wildcat stealer) with Fozzy as the lead blocker. Yes. Now again. See how easy that is, Greggy? Like taking five yards from a baby. At least. Just based on pure speed. Pure. speed.

Oh look, a linebacker's now outside the box. The Mike backer is pursuing hard -- DJ is fast, you know. Even a safety is taking several steps in that direction

Bam. Running back counter to the other side. Now the defense is being stretched in both directions, exposing a belly as soft as GD's? Quaterback counter up the middle it is. So simple, Greggy. Just take what the defense is giving you. As long as you make the correct call they can never be right.

Now, all the Longhorns have to do is execute, every lineman make their block.

Uh oh. Better fix that, MacWhorter.

Power. Power!

Actually, I lied about tucking that information about the power play away when discussing the possibility of using an h-back -- the power play would be a welcome addition to the Longhorn running game. Davis used it once with the WildHorn and Vondrell McGee as the lead blocker, the play might work better with Cody Johnson as the lead blocker late in games, as he has some experience at fullback and blocked well on the quarterback draw last season. Use it with McCoy and simply tell him to be smart about avoiding hits. It could work as a part of the Monroe series, as many spread teams run the power with some type of motion involved to misdirect defenders.

Using the power game would be one way to help the offensive line become more physical, perhaps a critical, and welcome, change for players like Kyle Hix and Michael Huey who are known as maulers in the running game. In fact, the offense may turns to some more attempts at downhill running as the offense morphs. Hint: Pistol formation. Dammit, no that won't happen, but more physical play from the offensive line could be a major part of any positive change.

Downfield, play-action passing

Ostensibly, a major reason for focusing on running the ball is to get teams out of the two-deep look they've been playing and/or keep them from selling out on the blitz, aka the Brent Venables Reflex. The Texas response will be to look downfield more often, particularly on play-action, as indicated by Malcolm Williams being named the starter the split end position.

We've generally beat the need for this to death around here and Brown may have provided an insight into the reason for Williams not playing as much, citing a concern for Williams being stretched too thin with his duties on special teams. For someone who appears to be in excellent shape, that excuse rings a little bit hollow, but don't just summarily dismiss Brown's point about the impact Williams makes on special teams. Maybe just ask the UTEP punter.

The major point here is that it's time to know. Time to know whether Williams will be the long-lost downfield threat not seen since Limas Sweed's wrist injury early in 2007. Time to know if Williams can create separation and consistently catch the football, supposedly a major reason for him not being on the field -- not exactly a secret at this point. Time. to. know. Beyond time to know. Now!

Chicken or eggin' it

Even though the coaches seem inclined towards playing EBS more often and running the football more often, the other changes in the receiving corps should also make a positive difference in the offense. Need to make a positive difference in the offense.

The question is one of causation -- have the Longhorns struggled throwing the football because of defensive adjustments or because the receivers can't gain any separation, particularly the now-benched John Chiles and James Kirkendoll? Most likely a little bit of both and Goodwin will surely help in that respect.

This.

The bigger question is how the change of Jordan Shipley from one side of the field to the other will affect the offense. He may play in the slot position, as Scipio Tex suspects, but the depth chart does list Shipley as the flanker, a position that receives most of the screens in the offense. Perhaps his greater ability to accelerate than Chiles will help the screen game become more consistent after struggling at times trying to pick up yards with the former quarterback. Perhaps returning to familiar routes will help him get the separation he achieved last season. And let's not forget, while Shipley did have a bad game against Oklahoma, it wasn't like he was struggling at the split end position -- recall that merely a week ago the national punditry was discussing him a dark-horse Heisman contender.

But for how long?

The change in philosophy isn't necessarily permanent -- Darius Terrell probably doesn't have to worry about not having a flex tight end position to play, or DJ Grant for that matter. The four-wide flex offense still has a place in the Longhorn playbook. Part of the idea, according to Brown, is to force opponents to spend time scheming to stop the running game, taking away an emphasis on a Longhorn-specific plan to defend the flex sets that won't be used again that season. In other words, forcing teams to choose a focus -- defending the flex sets or stopping the run, then exploiting the weakness.

Another benefit is that early-down running, as well as getting into third-down situations where the run/pass decision isn't dictated by the down and distance, will help eliminate some of the twists and stunts that Colorado used without regard for the running game and Oklahoma mixed in as well -- the Texas offensive linemen have struggled at times communicating in those situations, but this change in offensive philosophy could help mostly eliminate that tactic or at least render it much less effective.

Balance to write legacy

In the end, if this experiment works out, the Longhorns could emerge as a much more balanced and better football team -- part of the optimism that Brown feels when he talks about how the problems offensively speak to the room for improvement in the unit, all from a team that has outscored its opponents by more than anyone except for Florida and only trail the Gators by two lousy points.

It's a measured risk and one that smacks of Brown's conservatism, well placed in this case, this decision to make such endemic changes during the middle of the season without a bye week to further scheme and one that may well come to define the legacies of both Brown and his long-time assistant, the much-maligned Davis -- this is a season where anything less than playing in the national championship game and having a chance to bring the crystal football back to Austin will be met with despair rivaling that of an Aggie trying to come to terms with suffering a beatdown at the hands of a mediocre Kansas State team. In other words, the utter depths of despair.

But enough about the sad-shit Aggies -- this about a national championship, the type of glory that ages but never fades, like Vince Young in confetti.

Five Things to Watch Against Oklahoma

GhostofBigRoy — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:07:08 -0000

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It is Oklahoma that now has the fragile psyche going into this game? The dynamics of the Red River Rivalry have changed over the years -- during the long losing streak for Texas, it seemed that Bob Stoops was the superior coach and his players more confident, possessing more belief in their ability to dominate the game. Vince Young and the 2005 team helped start to swing the tide towards the Longhorns. Brian Robison helped a bit too by splattering Rhett Bomar. No longer did Texas walk onto the field in the Cotton Bowl and already looked whipped even before the coin toss.

Two more victories later for the Longhorns and many big-game losses later for the artist formerly known as "Big Game Bob" and now it appears that the Longhorns have the upper hand, with the Texas players now believing in themselves and the OU players more mentally fragile, nowhere more apparent than in the fourth quarter last year when the Longhorns imposed their will upon a tired and compliant Sooner team.

This season, the Sooners have been characterized by penalties and mental breakdowns, particularly in the secondary. If the Longhorns throw a haymaker to Stoopsy's weak chin, will Oklahoma fight back or roll over?

How do the Longhorns put pressure on the OU back seven? It's no secret at this point that Brent Venables doesn't think particularly well on his feet. As Scipio Tex mentioned in one of the podcasts this week, his default reaction to big situations is to blitz, a decision that will play into the hands of Colt McCoy and one that runs contrary to the current book on how to defend the Longhorns. The other factor is that, even after Ryan Reynolds went down last season, Venables continued to defend Jordan Shipley in the flex with a linebacker. OU doesn't exactly have much depth in the secondary, so that might preclude Oklahoma from using much nickel again on Saturday, playing into the hands of Greg Davis.

How do the Longhorns exploit the probable mismatches they can create? Since it will likely be difficult to run the ball, does Davis use more empty sets with burners like DJ Monroe and Marquise Goodwin? Dan Buckner is entrenched in the flex now, so moving Shipley there again doesn't make much sense, but does Shipley stay at split end, where he will surely face a safety over the top? Or does Davis move him around like he moved Quan Cosby around in the Fiesta Bow? With two safeties deep and one occupied by Shipley, the seam should open up for Buckner down the middle of the field and if it does, Texas should exploit it relentlessly.

As TES points out well, the OU back seven is also susceptible to play-action and misdirection, neither of which the Longhorns are particularly good at, but perhaps Davis has kept something up his sleeve so far this season. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch considering the vanilla offense Texas has been running at the start of the season.

Can the Longhorns score a non-offensive touchdown? The 2008 game turned on Jordan Shipley's kickoff return for a touchdown and this year's game could follow suit, as Texas has scored a non-offensive touchdown in every game but Wyoming and Earl Thomas intercepted Sam Bradford two times last year, accounting for 25% of Bradford's interceptions for the entire season.Thomas has four interceptions in the last three games and seems like he's finally put everything together after dropping several potential interceptions early in the season -- this is the Earl Thomas that Texas fans anticipated after numerous stories during the off-season about how he was consistently picking off Colt McCoy.

How will Oklahoma handle punts? The Sooners cover punts extremely well and do so by getting downfield quickly, a dangerous tactic if they decide not to block Goodwin, who blocked one punt against Colorado last week and almost blocked two more -- the Buffaloes did not decide to block him until the Longhorns put on the return that lead to Shipley's touchdown. If Oklahoma decides to commit resources to protecting the punter, it gives Shipley a much better shot to take one to the house.

Can the defensive line put pressure on Bradford? Last season, it was pressure in the face of Bradford that helped the Longhorns pull away and slow down the prolific Sooner offense. This season, the offensive line has been having major problems and now has to replace injured starter Brian Simmons. Can Sergio Kindle take advantage of Jarvis Jones at right tackle, just like the Miami speed rushers did? Furthermore, does Muschamp finally move Kindle around more in this game, as he promised to do before the season, or is that even necessary given how poorly the OU o-line has played at times? What about blitz packages, like bringing Aaron Williams from the nickel or Roddrick Muckelroy or Emmanuel Acho running the same delayed blitz that BYU used to knock Bradford out of the game? Expect more of the "exotics" Muschamp has been saving, although if the Longhorns get pressure rushing four, he won't need to use them.

Please, pretty please, Sergio, can you Bomar Bradford?

Can the Longhorns stop the run? For the last three weeks, Mack Brown has expressed concern about the ability of the defensive line to stop the run. First, it was Donald Buckram, then Speedy Stewart, and now it's Oklahoma's pair of successful backs. After passing the first two tests, Texas now faces the best rushing attack they will face until, well, a couple weeks from now. Chris Brown pegs it as the major matchup of the game and he's right to do so considering that during the Brown-Stoops era, no team has won with fewer rushing yards than the opponent.

On the surface, then, it would seem like a game for Ben Alexander, who has made a huge leap his senior season to become a key contributor at the thin defensive tackle position. However, the Sooners like to push the tempo to keep defenses from substituting, so Muschamp will have to carefully weigh the advantages of Alexander versus the running game against Alexander's skills rushing the passer, certainly not his strength. Another important matchup will be Lamarr Houston against the depleted interior of the OU line -- he might go against JUCO transfer Tavaris Jefferies, the replacement for Brian Simmons, which seems to favor the disruptive Houston.

One final thought -- can OU suck any more than it does? I believe the answer is no, but I wouldn't put it past them...