SB Nation - D.J. Grant

Injuries Piling Up At Football Programs Across The Nation

Beergut — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 11:12:53 -0000

In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, home of LSU, their starting MLB and defensive line is banged up. In Austin, Texas, home of the texas longhorns, they've lost a TE candidate when D.J. Grant tore up his knee, and TE Ian Harris suffering from neck and shoulder issues. Every program you look at around the nation, injuries are happening, pretty much a given when you are practicing a collision sport like football

However, there is one place where there are no players suffering from injuries despite a very physical Fall Camp, and that place is Gainesville, Florida, home of the Florida Gators. What is the secret to Florida remaining injury free, you ask? Let head coach Urban Meyer explain it to you:

Every time we run a play in practice, we start it with the huddle. Now, we want the guys to be tight this season, we want good team chemistry, so to get them to focus on functioning as one unit, we had them hold hands before they break the huddle. Well, as you can imagine, that ended up having a side benefit; every time we held hands on offense, whoever was injured or nicked up on a previous play was immediately healed by Tim Tebow.

Afternoon Brewsky Finally Finds Some Material

GhostofBigRoy — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:31:22 -0000

It's Friday and it's over 100 degrees again in Austin. So before you head out to the pool to have a couple cold ones, indulge in some actual news during the horrible, terrible, very bad offseason.

Texas 7-on-7 news is a crack-like substance. Scipio Tex has some second-hand information about a recent Longhorn 7-on-7 workout observed from a nearby cheerleading camp. Hey, it's the off-season, so this counts as serious news! Mmm, feel the goodness wash over you. Let's do it bullet-stylie:

Garrett Gilbert has good velocity on his throws and looks like he might have gained some arm strength since his shoulder surgery. I've thought for a while that Gilbert come make the throws he needs to make and a lot of the perception of his lack of arm strength came from his junior season, when, guess what, he played with a torn labrum ever since the early part of the season. It might not be that his arm is that much stronger now, just that he is now able to put what he has on it. Whatever the case, Colt McCoy still isn't lauded for his arm strength, but in the current version of the Texas offense, Gilbert doesn't need to have a Jay Culter-arm, he just needs to be accurate.
Colt McCoy looks better than ever, with "improved" footwork and the accuracy Texas fans now expect from their robo-quarterback. As he will have to do during the season, McCoy was reportedly putting the ball in small spaces against strong and getting stronger secondary play. Based on the reports, any concerns about McCoy not being the leader of the team (they should be just about gone) should be absolutely put to rest.
DJ Grant! Playing football! Now up to a little over 220 pounds, Grant still moves like a receiver (no surprise), but more importantly is able to find holes in coverage, as he will need to do in the Texas offense, along with stretching the seam. The obvious question remains about how well he can block.
Everyone in the secondary looks stronger, but especially Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams, who both appear ready for monster seasons. Based on other reports, Thomas is now the leader of the secondary, instructing other players (like Christian Scott, most likely) on where they need to line up after relying heavily on Blake Gideon last year to do the same for him. More thoughts on that and Aaron Williams at a later point.

Franklin set to make decision before end of summer. The top four of Texas, Oklahoma, A&M, and Baylor remains for the Marshall linebacker, who plans on making a decision ($) before the start of football season, possibly as early as the end of the month. At this point, after traveling extensively as his recruitment picked up during the spring and summer, Franklin says that his family is exhausted and ready for a break. Due to that fatigue, Franklin chose not to attend an A&M camp ($) this week and will not make it back to Baylor, though he says his absence isn't an indication of his eliminating the Aggies or Bears from consideration. As for the Longhorns, Franklin hasn't planned another trip to Austin. Texas still stands a strong chance even without the visit and conventional wisdom holds that the Longhorns and the Sooners lead for his services. Franklin, for his part, claims everyone is currently equal among his top four.

Some Jordan Hamilton news. Simply reading this blog post from Northstar Basketball is enough to make the heart skip a beat: Citing a source close to the situation (don't they all), it claims that Jordan Hamilton is likely not to qualify to play basketball for Texas this fall. While Hamilton is still in the Clearinghouse (along with J'Covan Brown), he is still expected to enroll for the second summer session, which begins July 12th. The aforementioned blog cites the fact that Hamilton wasn't in Austin at the date of post (July 2nd), though there wasn't any particular reason for him to be in town at that point.

Chip Brown says any potential eligibility problems are news to the Longhorns ($) and the likely slow decision revolves around the fact that Hamilton was ineligible last season after a California board ruled that he couldn't play his fourth season of high school basketball, even though he had sat out his freshman year to concentrate on his grades. Another possibility is that since his high school ended late the Clearinghouse simply hasn't had enough time to properly review his situation. Either way, Hamilton should be in Austin and in class on Monday.

In happier news, Hamilton spoke with Houston's 1560 The Game about playing for Texas and even a little bit about Michael Jackson. He comes across as well-spoken and mature during the interview, saying all the right things about his potential role with this team, dabbling in some cliches perhaps, but saying the right thing is encouraging and not necessarily the norm among players his age. Especially heartening was his mention of focusing on getting the ball to Dexter Pittman in the post, a struggle at times last season. With his ability to knock down the outside shot, Hamilton should be able to create the angles to do so, unlike Dogus Balbay and Justin Mason.

And contrary to his reputation in high school and on the AAU circuit, the talented wing says that he's ready and willing to expend some energy on the defensive end. The depth of the team this season will give Rick Barnes the opportunity to enforce an edict of defense first, even with Hamilton. In all fairness, for someone expected to score as much as Hamilton has been for every team he's played on, there isn't always a lot of energy left for defense. Kobe Bryant has to spend most of his energy scoring, leaving little for defense. However, when given the opportunity last summer, Bryant willingly took on the role of defensive stopper that he could never play in LA.

The other interesting comment that Hamilton made was that he often played in the post during his three years of high school ball as the tallest player on the team -- his ability in the post doesn't come up in any evaluations of him, but he must have some semblance of a game on the block. The Longhorns won't need it this season unless it's at times when Pittman is out of the game and Hamilton has a smaller player guarding him, but it might be an interesting facet of his game that he could use if he returns for his sophomore season.

July evaluation period in progress. Since the NCAA ruled to take away the April evaluation period for college coaches, the month of July has become even more important ($). In fact, coaches haven't been able to watch players in game action since the high school season ended. The heads of every program will fly around the country this month to take in camps and AAU tournaments in an effort to scout potential recruits, still in the evaluation stages instead of the final targeting phases. Most schools have offers out to the top 2010 and 2011 guys (Texas has two commits in 2010 and four in 2011), but for late risers, this is the month to prove that they deserve an offer.

One rising player who will receive an evaluation from Texas comes from a school familiar to both Sooners and Longhorns: Amarillo Palo Duro, the alma mater of both Austin Johnson and Justin Mason. Since neither Josh Smith nor Fab Melo have made it to campus, their recruitments seem the longest of longshots at this point and the coaching staff will turn their time and energy to unearthing some other post options in the 2010 class, though there aren't many likely alternatives out there right now.

The coaches will look at Palo Duro's Michael Cobbins, a long, lanky, 6-8 energy guy right now who increased his stock in one of the least controllable ways possible -- just by growing a couple of inches. The added heigh has greatly increased the number of major suitors for his services. Formerly recruited by smaller schools like SMU and New Mexico, Cobbins now has offers from Indiana, Arizona, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. In fact, Cobbins was so lightly regarded as a younger player that he didn't even have any offers from Texas AAU teams, eventually landing with the New Mexico Force ($).

Though his stock has risen, Cobbins is still a rather raw offensive player. He does possess strong athleticism that allows him to dunk the ball when he catches it around the basket and is an excellent rebounder and wing and interior defender -- he's an extremely versatile defender who may not have the strength to defend pure posts, but can guard threes and fours with equal effectiveness.

Texas has shown more interest recently and an offer could be in the works for Cobbins.

Michael Cobbins Highlights Palo Duro Basketball (via phillibuck)

From the Land of Miscellany. An update for those who are following the latest BCS shenanigans...The state 7-on-7 tournament started on Thursday in College Station and features some Longhorn commits and recruits ($). Among the players there are Graham's Case McCoy, DeSoto's Darius Terrell and Adrian White, Lufkin's Carrington Byndom, Cedar Hill's Aaron Benson, Temple's Lache Seastrunk, Denton Guyer's JW Walsh and many others. I'll review the tournament after it completes, but from pictures of the event, Case McCoy has been working hard in the weight room and doesn't look scrawny any more. Jaxon Shipley, on the other hand, looks like he needs to, though his route runner is said to have been impressive on the first day...BC has some fun with the roster update on MB-TF this week...Warning: you may want to disregard this link. Tim Griffin has Crabtree's catch (you know the one I'm talking about), as the Big 12's second most memorable moment. Check the picture to see how close Curtis Brown got to making a play on that ball...More BC stuff: Thoughts on the Big 12 North, distributing minutes for the basketball team, and the Mack Brown Curse, striking again.

Big 12 Freshmen I Look Forward To Seeing In 2009

Beergut — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 09:33:01 -0000

There are always a few 5-star, can't miss recruits who are the talk of the nation around signing day, but end up redshirting during their freshman season, so we're left to wait a year before seeing if they are worth the hype. The usual players to merit a redshirt are offensive linemen, because time to develop in the weight room and learn the system will do them some good, but every once in a while, a stud skill position player is redshirted.

Jermie Calhoun of Van HS is one such player. A 5-star RB recruit, Calhoun was a Parade All-American in HS before redshirting with Oklahoma last season. I am interested to see if he cracks the two-deep this season, and what, if anything, he does when given a chance to play.

Another 5-star stud from Texas who signed with OU but ended up redshirting was Keller Fossil Ridge DE R.J. Washington. Washington was also a Parade All-American, and was ranked the #2 defensive end in the nation by Rivals, and the #13 recruit overall. Given that Auston English, Frank Alexander, and Jeremy Beal are returning at DE, it will be interesting to see if Washington cracks the depth chart.

texas didn't have any five-star students in their 2008 recruiting class, but they did have two intriguing prospects. DeSean Hales was a four-star ranked multi-purpose back coming out of Klein Oak High School. texas has moved him to WR during his redshirt season. It will be interesting to see how Hales does at receiver, because I think they'll feature him at the B-receiver position. texas' other intriging prospect is former Austin LBJ wide receiver D.J. Grant. texas' coaches moved Grant to TE during Fiesta Bowl practices, and I'm wondering if he'll see significant action at Y in 2009. Anyone else want to see if Tre Newton is the answer to texas' problems at RB?

Oklahoma State has a stud RS freshman RB in Kye Staley, a 4-star recruit who was considered the top football player in Oklahoma in 2008. Staley was recruited as an "athlete", but will now try to break into a lineup that includes Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston at TB.

Nebraska's only 5-star stud recruit is also the only 5-star recruit to ever come out of the state of Nebraska, OT Baker Steinkuhler. Since arriving in Lincoln, Steinkuhler has switched to the defensive side of the ball, and is now listed at DT. He should be fun to watch this season, if only to hear announcers refer to his father, former Outland Trophy winner Blake Steinkuhler, every time he is on television.

These are only seven redshirt freshmen I am interested in seeing during the 2009 football season; who will you be watching for?

Morning Coffee Goes Pro

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:58:46 -0000

Texas Pro Day stocks. The Longhorns held their annual Pro Day for scouts ($) (and Packers GM Ted Thompson) on Wednesday, an important day for players looking to improve on their NFL Combine results (Ryan Palmer) or players who weren't invited to the Combine (Henry Melton).

Stock Rising: Henry Melton. The former Texas running back probably worked his way into the top half of the NFL Draft (fourth or fifth round) with his extremely impressive showing at the Texas Pro Day -- perhaps not the most impressive of the group, as Roy Miller and Brian Orakpo both allayed concerns, but Melton was the player who made himself the most money, running a 4.58 40 at 268 pounds (instead of the normal 225) and posting a 36.5-inch vertical. That raw athleticism, combined with his lack of experience at the defensive end position gives Melton a considerable amount of potential. As HenryJames notes, that 40 time makes Melton faster than the OU safeties.
Stock Rising: Quan Cosby. Though Cosby stuck with 4.57 40 from the Combine, he did perform extremely well in the passing drills, once regaining his feet to make a catch that IT's Ross Lucksinger compared to the David Thomas catch in the Rose Bowl. With his ability to use his body to shield defenders, his amazing hands, and leaping ability, Cosby won't be kept out of the league by his size, but the lack of upside will probably hurt him, as what you see is what you get with the "elderly" Mart product and former minor league baseball player.
Stock Rising: Roy Miller. Height has always been the concerns pro scouts have about Miller, but he did answer the questions he could -- running a 4.8 40 after a 4.98 at the Combine, while still adding 23 pounds since the end of the football season. His strength and first step helped Miller solidified his position in the middle rounds.
Stock Holding: Brian Orakpo. There wasn't much to prove for Rak that he didn't at the NFL Combine, considering his 4.7 40, 11-foot broad jump, and 31 reps at 261 pounds. Orakpo stuck with those numbers, but showed well in position drills and proved the health of his knees, essentially answering all the questions scouts had about him and making him a top-10 lock come April and possibly as high as five, a pick held by the Cleveland Browns, who play a 3-4 defense.
Stock Holding: Chris Ogbonnaya. OG ran a predictably mediocre 4.65 at the Combine and stuck with that number and worked at the positions he played at Texas (wide receiver, running back, and fullback). His versatility may land him a chance at the next level in the role he excelled at during his last season at Texas -- third-down specialist. He's probably a free agent pick up.
Stock Holding: Rashad Bobino. Everyone's least favorite linebacker (at least after Scott Derry and Robert Killebrew left) ran the slow 40 expected of him -- 4.7, but managed to turn in a remarkable 4.18 shuttle time that would have been second-best among linebackers at the NFL Combine. Adding his kamikaze tendencies and slow straight-line speed to his lack of height essentially eliminates him from NFL consideration, which isn't exactly a surprise. I would be greatly surprised if he latched on with a team even as a free agent. But I guess he bled for the program and stuff, so there's that.
Stock Holding: Ryan Palmer. Like Roy Miller, Palmer couldn't answer his biggest question mark -- size. At only 5-8, it doesn't mater much that Palmer ran a 4.53 40, much better than his 4.62 at the Combine, or that he can jump 36.5 inches in the air while standing still -- he's just too small. As the only thing separating him from some serious cash money, Palmer must wake up every morning and curse the cruel fate that dealt him a short deck.
Stock Falling: Aaron Lewis. For a player uninvited to the Combine and on the extreme margins of NFL talent, Aaron Lewis needed a strong performance on Wednesday. Due to hip and hamstring injuries, Lewis wasn't able to run a 40, but completed the shuttle in 4.45 seconds. Lewis will have to get healthy and make a strong impression at tryouts after the draft to make an NFL roster.
Post-college attendees. Texas players who completed their eligibility in the fall weren't the only participants on Wednesday. Former walk-on and track athlete Joe Davis worked out at wide receiver, perhaps giving himself a shot at landing a free agent opportunity with his 6-5 frame , while Eric Hall and former Texas receiver Myron Hardy worked out as well. Last year former Texas quarterback James Brown was pulled from the crowd to throw to the receivers, but this year it was native Texan and former Iowa quarterback Drew Tate and Austin resident Jeff Blake who did the honors.

D-Money names UT the favorite. Forth Worth Dunbar receiver Darius White, aka D-Money, currently has a27 offers from the best programs in the country, but there is one that stands above the rest ($) -- Texas. An Austin trip with his mom and brothers is in store for the spring game, while White says that his mom is advising him to take his time with the process. Considering the statements White made in the fall sounding like he was a lock to commit early, the trip seems to be about establishing a comfort level with the program for his mother, much like Reggie Wilson's trip last week that culminated in news of commitment shortly thereafter. If White's mother gives her stamp of approval at the spring game, White could be the 22nd commitment in the class, as many BONizens believe.

Mack Brown speaks. In his first press conference since before Spring Break, Mack Brown spoke about his team and the work left to be done.

Brown confirmed that DJ Grant did sprain his ankle, but disagreed with trainer Kenny Boyd's assessment that Grant would not participate in the remainder of spring practice, with Brown calling him day-to-day.
After horrible kick coverage last season, Brown says they are working harder on that than they have before.
Fozzy Whittaker is quickly developing a reputation as injury-prone and "tweaked" his ankle during the first part of spring practice.
In other injury notes, early enrollee defensive end Dominique Jones won't practice this spring, but fellow early enrollee Kenny Vaccaro is participating in individual workouts.
The coaches are no longer worried about the weight of 250-pound Cody Johnson, instead focusing on his body fat percentage, with Brown commenting that the staff doesn't want him weak from only eating salads.
Perhaps the most interesting news is that Ben Alexander has lost weight and is playing impressively. Of course, that leads to speculation that Alexander has looked good because Kheeston Randall hasn't, but it would greatly help the defensive tackle rotation if Alexander could have a breakout senior season, particularly against a team like Oklahoma State that runs the ball well.

Matthews down to two. Good news for Longhorn fans on Wednesday, as offensive lineman Jake Matthews told Burnt Orange Beat that he narrowed his list to two schools ($): Texas and Texas A&M. He's planning on visiting both schools soon, though he hasn't scheduled a visit to Texas as he has with the Aggies, with whom he has a higher level of comfort, partly due to his brother's attendance. Seemingly tired of the process, Matthews says that he will likely commit before having a chance to visit OU or USC, who haven't been completely eliminated, it seems.

Matthews will try to make it down to Texas in an effort to develop a higher level of comfort, likely for a practice or the spring game, which will be an extremely important visit. It doesn't seem like recruits have had problems getting comfortable in Austin or with the Texas coaching staff, so expect Texas to close the gap with the Aggies when Matthews does take his visit.

Wilson speaks, articulately. There might not be a Texas recruit in the history of the program with as interesting a story as Haltom defensive end Reggie Wilson. On Tuesday, at a news conference held in his school library, Wilson made the official announcement of his commitment to Texas. Wilson's maturity and perspective have always shown through in his previous interviews, but his new conference and appearance on "The Drive" clearly demonstrated how remarkably articulate he is ($) for a young man. Wilson sounded off on a number of topics during his interview, including the impact his trip to campus made on his family:

When we got on the campus my mom and dad and brother fell in love with the campus. And the things they offer in the business school and me telling my dad I wanted to major in business. Them being a top five business school in the country and all those things. My mom and my brothers were like yeah I think this is the right school for you.

For Wilson and his family, the considerations went beyond the campus or facilities -- older brother Winston wanted to know what would happen if Reggie got injured:

A major concern was that if he gets out of here and he's in Austin and playing football and he gets a season ending injury, what happens to his scholarship? That was basically what our concern was. And we were told 'Look if Reggie commits to us now, we guarantee him four years of academic scholarship. It's there. The athletic scholarship is there and it's going to be there. We are not going to take it from him.' So basically that was the biggest concern. My parents were concerned about that and I was concerned about that. So it was a snap of a finger to give them a commitment because they satisfactorily answered all of the questions we had.

A concern with Wilson talking about moving back to the Ivory Coast after his football career is that he might leave early for the NFL to have money to send back more quickly. Wilson tried to allay those concerns on Tuesday:

Some players decide to go to the NFL but I'm not one of those people who are going to the NFL [early]. I'm going to go the four years to get my degree. That's the plan I have and I'm not going to change it. You all can look forward to me playing four years of football there.

Finally, Wilson gave insight into the way that Texas coaches deal with blue-chip talent, developing personal relations that may last past the recruiting process, even if the player attends another school:

They're great people, I felt comfortable with them - coach Giles, coach Tolly, every one of them. I feel those are people who are going to be there for me regardless of football, football being there or not. And that's what really drew me closer to them.

Coach Tolly was the main one who got my attention. This is one thing coach Tolly told me, this is the main thing that got my attention, 'If you come to the University or if you don't come here I'll always be your biggest fan.' That really touched me to know that he liked me as a person and not just because I was a top recruit in the state of Texas or the nation, but he liked me as an individual.

Wilson will certainly represent the University of Texas in the best possible way and it will be interesting to hear more interviews with him later, though Mack Brown may well indoctrinate him before anything interesting comes out of his mouth while at Texas.

Morning Coffee Wonders: To Offer Or Not To Offer?

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:00:09 -0000

2010 quarterback class complete. Before various sources started telling Texas recruiting services that Connor Wood gave his commitment to the Longhorn coaching staff on Tuesday evening, I had written a section for this Morning Coffee about other potential quarterback targets, notably Nick Montana, son of Joe and visitor to Austin this week. So much for that.

What does Connor Wood mean for Texas? Most obviously, it means that the quarterback position, assuming that Wood redshirts and then stays four more years, is set until the 2015 season. Think about that for a minute. It also means that Garrett Gilbert is unlikely to redshirt, as the coaching staff would want to separate Gilbert and Wood by the widest margin possible -- two years.

There is another storyline here as well. A few weeks ago, a rumor made the rounds that Thidodaux, LA's Trovon Reed was planning to transfer to Houston Second Baptist next season to play with Wood. Reed, of course, is close friends with Lache Seastrunk, with some talk that the two may attend the same college. While Wood's commitment doesn't guarantee anything from the other two players, it increases the possibility that Reed and Seastrunk could also find themselves in burnt orange.

The final interesting storyline concerns the turf war between Texas and Oklahoma for recruits. As the tide turned on the football field, it has also turned on the recruiting front, with the exception of Jamarkus McFarland. Even with OU offering earlier playing time and quite possibly a cushy Big Red Auto job, Wood still decided to stay in Texas -- a major loss for the Sooners, who are scrambling to find a replacement for Sam Bradford. Too bad, Stoopsie.

To offer. Or not to offer. Indeed, it is the question. While the first Junior Day seems like Christmas with offers going out to the best of the best in Texas and the intrigue surrounding if any big-time recruits will commit early, the second Junior Day looks mostly at the second-tier players and players who couldn't make the first Junior Day (like DeMarco Cobbs, certainly not second-tier, even nationally). Nearly every player at the first Junior Day received an offer, but a much smaller percentage will receive an offer at the second, with a higher percentage probably committing shortly in the days following. By the end of the first week in March, Texas should have around 15 commitments or more, leaving mostly the elite players waiting to make decisions.

One player invited to the second Junior Day on February 29 falls into the category of a player on the borderline of receiving an offer. With outstanding offers to wide receivers Darius White, Trovon Reed, and DeMarco Cobbs, the coaching staff has serious decisions to make about how many more receiver offers go out and to whom, especially since each of those players is a national recruit and Texas is unlikely to give any a deadline to make a decision, even a soft one.

Skyline's Mike Davis is one of the few who didn't receive an offer at the first Junior Day. A receiver coming in for the second Junior Day about whom offer speculation swirls is North Shore's DeAndrew White, a 6-0, 170-pound speedster (4.4 40) in the mold of a guy like Trovon Reed, with similar speed, lateral quickness, and outright elusiveness. Since the Percy Harvin-type is all the rage and I'm becoming infatuated with the triple option, Texas coaches would make a serious mistake by not bringing in a smaller, elusive receiver in the class to provide the versatility to carry the ball a few times per game and balance out larger, outside receivers like John Harris and Darius Terrell (who, of course, may switch to tight end). Already with an Alabama offer, White calls Texas his "dream team ($)," which might make a commitment imminent following an offer. The question is whether Texas decides to only offer one smaller receiver in Reed and miss out on White. Stay tuned.

To offer. Or not to offer. Part II. Like receiver, running back is a position that the Texas coaching staff may wait on. The problem is that the lone current offer is out to Lache Seastrunk, and he may not make a decision until late in the process. Do the Longhorns go after a bigger running back then, like Traylon Shead (who now reportedly has an offer) or Aldine's Dontae Williams, a big talent who has little film from his junior year because of Hurrican Ike and injuries.

Perhaps for those reasons Williams doesn't yet have an offer ($), but his grainy film does looks impressive. Even if the major programs haven't yet given him a lot of attention, Rivals sees something impressive, ranking him as the seventh-best prospect in Texas for 2010. Williams has the perfect size for a running back, at 6-0, 205 pounds, which allows him to play with good pad level and balance, while showing the burst of an elite back. Texas and LSU occupy the top two positions on his wish list for offers. It almost hurts the Longhorns that they have helped to accelerate the recruiting process to such an extent that waiting to evaluate the senior film of players who missed their junior season is too late except for guys who really fall through the cracks, like Tevin Mims and DJ Grant.

Wherefore art thou, tight end of 2009? Defensive end is a position of serious concern for the 2009 season because of attrition from graduation. Tight end is a little bit different -- it's a position of concern because of attrition, but that attrition took the form of devastating injuries to every pass-catching tight end on scholarship: Blaine Irby, Josh Marshall, and Ian Harris.

First, the bad news. Relatively. Mack Brown and company are holding out that Irby will make it back for the Tech game on September 19, which seems optimistic considering Irby isn't even running yet. And more bad news. Converted receiver Marshall won't be fully healed until later in spring practice, likely close to the game on April 5.

The good news is that Greg Smith won't see the field to run uselessly into the flat. Bill Frisbie, in what has to be a joke, noted that Smith duties last year were only "run-blocking in jumbo packages." Um, no. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case, particularly in the first half of the Tech game, when Greg Davis' sphincter tightened considerably, leading him to insert Smith into the game to drop passes in the flat and fail to block Tech defensive ends. Mack Brown says the tight ends need to block better, since they gave up five sacks last year. Yes, they do, particularly those tight ends who are basically offensive lineman. Thankfully, Smith should rarely see the field next year.

Hopefully, DJ Grant will have a lot to do with that. The coaches want Grant to get up to 230 if possible, then use him flexed out as a receiver and in tight to block occasionally. The receiving part shouldn't be a problem, but the question will be how well he run blocks. The Texas running game needs serious help, but a tight end who consistently missed blocks won't help that and shouldn't see the field an h-back option like Barrett Matthews.

What Grant can do is stretch the field up the seam. It's a statement that seems like a cliche coming from the Texas coaches -- they use it that often. What is the importance of stretching the field vertically with the tight end, anyway? Most importantly, it threatens to draw a safety, particularly since most linebackers can't cover converted receivers like Jermichael Finley or speedy tight ends like Blaine Irby. With a safety forced to help, that opens up single coverage either on the split end (Malcolm Williams next year) or on both of the receivers lined up on the strong side of the formation (Jordan Shipley and Collins/Kirkendoll).

The Texas offense needs a versatile tight end to make sure the offense remains multiple, making tight end one of the most interesting positions to watch going into the spring game.

On the question of a point guard. Much has been made of the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup a little more than a week ago against Oklahoma State. The move paid immediate dividends, with Balbay pushing the ball in transition to score the first basket of the game. While Balbay's aggressiveness is heartening, the three-game stint as a starter has put into sharp relief his current faults.

The most commonly-known problem is Balbay's inability to shoot from the perimeter, evidenced by his (I believe) three made jump shots on the season. That's a problem. His problems at the free-throw line seem to be a general lack of touch rather than an issue with mechanics, but he does struggle from the field with his balance, often drifting on his shot, which he needs to work hard to correct in the off season. Fortunately, Balbay's quickness still allows him the ability to get into the lane, particularly in the open court, where few players can match his quickness.

A more significant impediment to his playing time is his inability to stay out of foul trouble. Besides the occasional foul in transition trying to contest a lay up, almost every other foul on the defensive occurs far away from the basket. It's enough of a problem that I've begun joking to my friends that Balbay must lead the country in the average distance from the basket that he commits his fouls. It's probably somewhere around 20 feet.

Balbay has the strength and the lateral speed to generally stay in front of players (besides a stretch in the second half against Oklahoma State when Byron Eaton abused him), but he struggles with his body control and often picks up cheap fouls. Those type of plays accounted for two of his four fouls against Texas A&M and limited his time on the court. Ball pressure between half court and the three-point line is a high-risk/low-reward game right now for Balbay. Instead of forcing turnovers, he generally either gives up dribble penetration or commits a foul far from the basket. If Balbay can't pressure the ball without fouling, Rick Barnes is going to have to ask him to back off.

The other issue concerns Balbay's struggles finishing around the rim, despite his extraordinary athleticism. It appears to be an issue of knowing how to use the backboard. He often lofts the ball up without any touch or spin, sometimes even failing to use the backboard at all. Several shots around the rim have gone in after hitting the side and heel of the rim and bouncing in. Since he often likes to attack the rim directly and use a finger roll, it could be that Balbay has little experience using the backboard. The finger roll is a relatively low percentage shot around the rim because it has only two results -- it goes in or hits the heel and bounces out. There isn't much room for it to bounce around and go in.

Morning Coffee Looks To 2010

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 12:00:11 -0000

The 2009 class is all but complete and will sign on Wednesday. With Texas' first Junior Day happening on Sunday, the first offers for the 2010 class will be handed out next weekend. Here's a look at who the Longhorns will target on offense, with defensive targets appearing in Thursday's Morning Coffee.

2010 targets: Wide receiver (in state). Unlike the 2009 class, which did not feature many game-breaking talents, the 2010 wide receiver class in Texas is absolutely loaded with talent, good news for a year the Longhorns will take three or four receivers, after only taking Greg Timmons in the 2009 class. Not only are the best receivers in the state talented, many of them also feature great size. Darius Terrell and Darius White both fit that mold, with Terrell standing 6-3 and White checking in at 6-4, and are the most talented of the tall wide receivers. John Harris is as tall as Terrell, as are Austin Bowie's DeAndre Perry and Midlothian's Eddie Johnson, but aren't as well-regarded as White and Terrell. Only slightly smaller is Skyline's Mike Davis, at 6-2, 180 pounds.

Scout ranks ($) Davis as the best wide receiver invited to the Texas Junior Days, citing his polished route running and soft hands. Like other players in the class, Davis goes up well in traffic to catch the ball, but like Terrell he isn't a burner, probably necessitating taking one or two smaller, faster receivers in the class.

Terrell has already been approved for an offer by the coaching staff and does a sensational job of going up in traffic to catch the ball, but it doesn't seem like he does anything else on film, which raises questions about how well he runs routes. With his ability to go across the middle and his large frame, there is some speculation that Terrell could end up at tight end. Running a 4.6 in the 40, Terrell doesn't have great speed and might receive his offer as a tight end. With his speed and questions about his route running ability, it doesn't make any sense to me to offer him as a receiver, especially considering the talent in the rest of the class.

White is the most athletic and explosive of the group, with a combination of size and speed that is very much like Malcolm Williams, though White has the shiftiness and feet that Williams hasn't shown much of yet. While he doesn't run routes with the same polish as other members of the class, he does have explosive leaping ability and falls under the gamebreaker classification. From his film, there isn't any doubt that he is the best of the large receivers and will surely receive a Texas offer. Frankly, he's my favorite of the group after watching them all on film.

After Terrell and White, the other receivers seem more like fall-back options, especially if the out-of-state players choose other schools. They might actually end up as fall-back options for players from Texas if the coaching staff wants a mix of large receivers and smaller receivers. Eddie Johnson and Naaman Forest's John Harris fit into that category of fall-back options, due largely to their somewhat one-dimensional natures. Harris isn't explosive, but runs good routes and makes good plays in traffic, while Johnson has a similar skill set. Cobi Hamilton is faster and more talented than players like Harris and Johnson -- so even though in-state talent at the wide receiver position is deep, after the top couple players they are serious questions about the ability of the rest to produce at a high level in college.

2010 targets: Wide receiver (out-of-state). Despite prodigious talent in the state of Texas in 2010, the coaching staff looked to neighboring states to bring in more receivers, all of the gamebreaking variety, from outside of Texas: Tulsa's Demarco Cobbs, Gainesville, GA's Tai-ler Jones, and Thibodaux, LA's Trovon Reed. With so many large receivers in the state who project as outside receivers, the Texas coaching staff seems to be looking for smaller guys who can operate out of the slot to compliment the larger receivers and make plays after the catch.

Cobbs plays quarterback in high school and is a physical specimen at 6-2, 195-pounds, with speed to burn, highlighted by his 4.5 40. The obvious comparison is Michael Crabtree, since both played quarterback in high school and are around the same height and build. Like with Crabtree, it's a little bit difficult to project Cobbs as a wide receiver since he doesn't play that position in high school, but he turned in an impressive showing at the Junior Combine in San Antonio during the week of the Army All-American game to allay those concerns. Cobbs has the talent to play other positions, but his combination of size, strength, speed, and elusiveness gives him the perfect skill set to play wide receiver, even showing soft hands. He will receive a Texas offer this weekend, but is a national recruit and won't be easy to land.

Jones is another smaller receiver with big-time elusiveness and offers from all over the country. The same size as Reed, Jones has great feet and projects as a slot receiver capable of making big plays on screen passes, reverses, and short or intermediate routes, filling a similar role as Brandon Collins did for the Longhorns in 2008. Helping his cause tremendously is his ability to run crisp routes, a skill much easier to develop in smaller receivers that generally have shorter strides than taller receivers with long strides. Jones also returns punts and kicks for his high school team and has the skill set to become an excellent return man in college. And if there is one thing that Jordan Shipley showed this season, it was the incredible game-changing nature of returning punts and kickoffs for touchdowns. Though Jones is a great talent, it's not clear what connection Jones has to Texas that would help land his commitment. As such, he seems a long shot.

Despite playing running back, quarterback, and wide receiver for his team (leading in all three categories), Reed is somewhat less difficult to project than Cobbs because he does have some film at receiver and displays the type of speed, feet, and elusiveness that make him a threat to score from anywhere on the field, whenever he touches the ball. Texas hasn't recruited many smaller receivers like Reed, who stands at an even 6 feet, but may be starting to realize the importance of having receivers who can make plays after the catch. Reed certainly fits that mold. Talks about Reed transferring to Houston Baptist to play with Connor Wood have subsided ($), but Reed is good friends with Lache Seastrunk and they have talked about going to college together. Such talk occurs frequently with high school players and rarely comes to fruition, though the Longhorns look to be in good shape if it does happen, as both seem to be seriously considering coming to Austin.

It's nice to see the coaching staff go out of state to target players with a specific skill set that can't be found in state this season. How successful those efforts ultimately are remains to be seen, of course, as the Longhorns are probably a long shot to land any of the three. Securing a commitment from even one of the three is probably a major success, though I certainly agree with what they are doing.

2010 targets: Tight end. With DJ Grant moving to tight end and two tight ends in the 2009 class, the Longhorns may not offer a true tight end in this class, particularly since most of the talented tight ends in Texas have academic or character issues. It hasn't been easy to find tight ends in the state recently and coaches may have to start turning to other areas to fill out the tight end position in upcoming classes.

If the Longhorns do decide to offer a tight end in this class, it will likely be Austin Bowie's DeAndre Perry, who plays wide receiver in high school, but has the height at 6-3 and the bulk at 215 pounds to make the move. With tight end depth not the problem it was this season, Perry could take the time to grow into his frame without any pressure to contribute immediately. As mentioned earlier, Darius Terrell could also change positions once on campus if he commits to Texas.

The tight end position will be a major storyline in this class for the reasons already mentioned. It's conceivable that the Longhorns don't take a tight end in this class, but an offer and commitment from Perry seems most likely.

2010 targets: Offensive line. The offensive line is another interesting position to follow in the 2010 class. With four offensive lineman in the 2009 class and a glut at the guard position already, the Longhorn coaching staff has not yet given out any invitations to either of the Junior Days to any offensive lineman. Think about that for a minute. There is talent in the state, but with the numbers currently on campus or enrolling soon, the Longhorns will probably only take two lineman in the class and could draw out their evaluation period into summer camps. Some of the names on the board will surely have committed by that time. It's hard to understand why the coaches are so intent on waiting, because they don't have any more film from the high school football season to evaluate, so it's not really clear what they are waiting for.

There are some good lineman in the state, so it's not a problem of there being too little talent. Jake Matthews is perhaps the most talented, the son of former NFL lineman Bruce Matthews and the nephew of Clay. As a national recruit, Matthews will be difficult to gain a commitment from, especially considering his family connections to A&M (older brother) and USC (cousins). That being said, Matthews is so talented that it makes sense to offer him, even if the coaches don't think there is a good chance he commits.

The Woodlands' Chad Lindsay is a highly-regarded guard prospect being pursued by major programs and doesn't have the body type Texas coaches normally look for, as he already has a significant amount of fat on his frame. Since the need is more at tackle for this class, an offer for Lindsay doesn't look likely.

Since the Texas coaches are looking for tackle prospects, Aleon Calhoun is a potential target and the best run blocker at the position in the state. DeSoto's Evan Washington is another interesting guy who likes Texas and is a former basketball player who just started playing football, making his upside considerable and relatively untapped.

Offensive line might be the most interesting position to follow in terms of how Texas coaches handle the recruiting process. The top players could be put off by not receiving early offers, or the suspense of waiting for a Texas offer could make it more valuable in their eyes and help vault Texas to the top of their lists when they finally do receive one. Either way, there doesn't seem to be much middle ground here in terms of perception by recruits and may either work out well for the coaches or work out not well at all. Stay tuned.

Recruiting Spotlight: Trey Graham

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 23:39:25 -0000

With Signing Day rapidly approaching and the great majority of the Longhorns' 2009 class already committed, it's time to look at each individual prospect.

Vitals

Name: Trey Graham

Height: 6-5

Weight: 230

Speed: 4.62 forty-yard dash

High School: Waco Midway

Rating (Rivals): Three out of five

Strengths

A true dual threat at tight end, Graham possesses excellent speed for his position, evidenced by his 4.6 40s, as well as significant athleticism with a 36-inch vertical, signs of his wide receiver past and pedigree. Two skills that will serve Graham well in the Texas offense stand out: 1) his speed can stretch the field vertically and 2) he runs good routes ($) and has the ability to exploit zone coverage by finding and settling into coverage holes. An excellent student with a GPA of 98.5 on a 100 scale and future business and pre-med major, Graham displays the concentration level to adjust to poorly thrown balls.

While known as a pass catcher, Graham added 15 pounds of muscle between his junior and senior seasons to wed strength to his high energy level when run blocking. Attributing those frame gains to work outs with the offensive lineman ($) in the weight room and competing with the lineman flipping tires and pushing trucks, Graham already works hard at maximizing his ability, even lifting at home in his father's own weight room ($). His frame may allow more bulk, but Graham already plays at the same weight Texas coaches want DJ Grant to play at next season, though Graham stands two inches taller and may still need to get stronger. A likely goal for entering his freshman season at UT is probably between 240 and 250 pounds, with his high school coach Kent Bachtel saying he could even eventually reach 260 ($), a weight at which Graham could lose speed.

As a blocker, Graham moves his feet well and gets into the second level consistently, crediting those gains since his sophomore year to hard work and evaluating his technique on film. Graham improved as well during his senior season while clearing the way for running back John Hubert, a Darren Sproles clone who may head to Kansas State. Notice a pattern here with Graham? Yeah, kid works hard. He also places his hands well and locks onto the defender, meaning I don't have to talk about how he needs to substantially improve his technique at the collegiate level. Sweet!

Weaknesses

While Graham has the ability to catch the ball away from his body, he falls into the bad habit of letting the ball get into his body before making the catch. In his high school offense at Midway, he wasn't asked to run many vertical routes despite his excellent speed, so he could have an adjustment period to the role Texas coaches prefer for their tight ends, which is doing exactly that.

In terms of blocking, Graham needs to get better knee bend to gain better leverage to drive defenders off the line of scrimmage. Besides knee bend, the other issue plaguing his blocking is directly related to his knee bend, as Graham's pad level remains too upright, negating his leverage.

Verdict

A serious commitment to the weight room and honest critique of his blocking shortcomings allay any fears that Trey Graham is a one-dimensional tight end. With his background as a receiver and his precise route-running attesting to that experience, Graham's receiving credentials remain beyond reproach. The numbers weren't gaudy as a senior, with 18 catches for 240 yards and four touchdowns ($), but Graham isn't the Waco Midway team, he plays a role on an excellent Midway team that lost to Longview in the playoffs, the eventual state runners-up, yet still played well enough individually to earn first team All-District honors for a second straight year. In fact, Midway was flat-out loaded with talent ($) across classes. Several to keep an eye on: 2010 stud safety Ahmad Dixon, 2011 prospects linebacker Marc Martinez and Beau Blackshear (offer the kid just for his name, I say), and 2012 safety, 6-3 freshman Shakiel Randolph, already with playoff experience.

All that is to say that numbers don't tell the whole story for Graham, because his obvious work ethic and winning experience make him a more valuable prospect than his Rivals ranking suggests alone, though Austin-based recruiting analyst Randy Rodgers calls him the best tight end in Texas. When setting expectations appropriately, those intangibles make it more likely that Graham will eventually succeed at Texas. Considering what Texas ran out on the field last season after Blaine Irby's injury Graham could well have contributed this season, likely even as a true freshman.

His prospects for playing early next season appear more remote, but that depends significantly on the development of DJ Grant, Josh Marshall and Ian Harris and how the competition between Graham and fellow incoming freshman Barrett Matthews plays out. To handicap that competition, playing time will obviously depend on providing the best combination of blocking and receiving. The former receivers, Grant and Marshall, may be behind in that aspect, while Harris and Matthews may not run routes with the same quality as the former receivers or Graham, though Matthews certainly possesses speed to rival and surpass even the fast Graham.

Trey Graham Higlights (via InsideTexas)

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

Bill C. — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:38:53 -0000

South Division

Oklahoma (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
Q1 Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster? Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup. The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable. Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country. They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford. As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy. He was sacked all of once a game last year. I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone. Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat. Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost. If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer? Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently. I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles. He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug. You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him. If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?" There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks). Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown? They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen. Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses. Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps. If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country. The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus. Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better). And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT. Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy. I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now. They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.). But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07? I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado? OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington). Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those? I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Texas (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Defense
1st Down Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense
Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South. Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.

Texas Tech (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Q3 Defense
2nd Down Defense
Redzone Offense
Q3 Rush Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing EqPts+
#1: Offensive Passing EqPts+
#2: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#2: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Offensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#122: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#117: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#115: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#113: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+

I've given up on trying to figure out exactly how Texas Tech had the "#1 defense in the Big 12" after long-time assistant Ruffin McNeill took the DC job midseason last year. They didn't. They still managed to give up 59 to Texas, 41 to Missouri, 31 to Colorado (Colorado!), 28 to Virginia, and 27 to Oklahoma after McNeill took over, and their D-line still served as just as good a sieve to rushing yards. As I've said many times this offseason, I think Texas Tech is without a doubt a Top 15-18 team...but no higher. And as I've said many times, they were two injuries to opponents' QBs (Sam Bradford, Jameel Sewell) away from a possible 7-6 record in '07. They do indeed return most of their key contributors from '07, including the best freshman WR of all-time, Michael Crabtree, but let's not pretend like there aren't holes here.

And let's start with the holes:

They've lost their one playmaking LB, Paul Williams (7.5 TFL's in '07, and a stellar success rate). We've heard lots of good things about sophomores Bront Bird and Brian Duncan, and there's a nice group of athletic RSFr's fighting for playing time, but they had one true playmaker, and he's gone.
The secondary is experienced and a little more deep than the typical Tech secondary, but...teams don't throw on Tech. They run on Tech. And while this could be the best D-line Tech's had in a long time (which is one of the reasons I think they're a Top 15-18 team), it's still not as good as OU's, or Texas's, or Missouri's, or Kansas's, or Colorado's. DTs' Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid, and there's potential at DE with Brandon Williams, Jake Ratliff, and McKinner Dixon. But again...at best, they're the #6 DL in the conference.
The offense still seems to get a bit timid when punched in the mouth. Missouri held them in check for 4 quarters by hitting them really hard, Colorado and Virginia did for 3. Once Oklahoma got its offense going while attempting a comeback, Tech's O ground to a total halt. Shannon Woods is a fantastic RB for Tech's offense, but he's not a power guy, not an "If Tech gains 2 yards on this play, they win the game...let's give it to that guy!" guy.

Again, though, this is why I don't think they're a conference or national title contender. They're still a good team, and getting Texas at home means they have a legitimate shot at #2 in the South and 10 wins overall (most wins under Leach: 9). Graham Harrell is the best, most experienced QB Mike Leach has had. Michael Crabtree is...Michael Crabtree. Guys like Eric Morris and Edward Britton will make sure that Danny Amendola won't be missed. The O-line returns all starters, plus it's humongous. Tech has more pure star power than it ever has before.

Verdict: Tech is 20-24 on the road under Mike Leach. They face Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M, and Kansas State on the road. Plus, they get Texas at home (last time they gave up less than 38 points to Texas: 2000). In other words, this is not a national title contender, and it's unfair to them to place the expectations that high. That said, this is just about the most dangerous team in the country. They can win any single game on their schedule, and if they wanted to win the South so that we didn't have to face OU in the conference title game (knock on wood), I sure wouldn't object.

Oklahoma State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

3rd Down Defense
Pass Offense
Redzone Defense
Defensive Points Per Play

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Line Yards+
#3: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+, Offensive Non-Passing Downs Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#124: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#121: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#107: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Verdict: I STILL have no idea what to do with OSU. They've got talent, athleticism, a dynamic QB, and an underrated offensive line. But their pass defense managed to be both horrific AND prone to breakdowns in 2007, and it's really hard for me to predict a major jump from them until they prove that they've improved in that area.

Texas A&M (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Non-Passing Downs Defense
Q3 Offense
Rushing Offense
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q4 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+
#5: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#8: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#118: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#117: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#115: Offensive Q2 S&P+

I got wordy about Tech and really wordy about OU, but...I just don't have that much to say about ATM. The hiring of Mike Sherman means that ATM will continue to be a physical team that can sneak up and bite you. Mike Goodson is obviously a big play waiting to happen, Stephen McGee is tough as nails, and they return a bunch of hard-hitters on defense--particularly guys like Devin Gregg and Crazy Michael Bennett. But...they still lack overall speed on defense, they don't have a QB who fits a pro-style offense, they lost their only two big-play threats in the passing game (Martellus Bennett, Kerry Franks), they have to replace 3 starters on the D-line, and they have to replace 3.5 on the O-line. The Big 12's too good this year to win big with that many weaknesses.

Verdict: I think I said it all above. I didn't like the Sherman hire, but any new ATM coach will have the opportunity to build some good, Texas-based recruiting classes, and eventually succeed. It's just not going to happen this year.

Baylor (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense
2nd Down Offense
Q3 Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive Passing Downs S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#7: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#125: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#124: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#123: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Baylor Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

There's more potential with this Baylor team than has been seen in green and gold for a while. But that's not saying much. Kirby Freeman was highly-recruited out of high school but pretty much flamed out at Miami--he's got potential, but if he doesn't get the QB job, a brand spanking new 4-star QB (with loads of, you guessed it, potential) is available to give it a shot. Briles' first (partial) recruiting class featured quite a bit of potential and speed, and that's probably what the Bears have been lacking most. They have a potential go-to WR in Thomas White, a potentially strong O-Line, and a couple potential big-time defenders in [Joe] Pawelek and [Jordan] Lake.

But let's be honest--every other team in the Big 12 (aside from maybe Iowa State) has more potential at the moment, along with more proven commodities. To turn this ship around in one season would require not one, but a series of miracles, and while Briles has proven himself to be a good coach...he hasn't proven himself God.

Verdict: A month or so after I wrote the above post, Art Briles still has yet to prove himself God. So everything I said above still stands.

BALANCE OF POWER

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

SCHEDULES

North Division
Missouri

Likely Wins (8): SEMO, Nevada, Buffalo, Oklahoma State, Colorado, @ Baylor, Kansas State, @ Iowa State

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (4): vs Illinois, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, vs Kansas

Prediction: It's hard to pick anybody to win in Austin, and I feel a bit like a homer for doing so, but...I'm doing it. This is possibly the best Mizzou team of my lifetime, and just in case they really do go 12-0, I want to say I picked it. I still get to be a fan. 12-0 (8-0).

Kansas

Likely Wins (6): Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ South Florida, Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, Texas, vs Missouri

Prediction: Depending on how KU responds to what is really one heckuva 5-week stretch (@OU, TT, KSU, @NU, UT), they could be 6-5 or 10-1 headed into the Mizzou game. I say they beat USF, Tech, and NU, meaning they're 9-1 headed into the UT game...and they lose to UT and MU. 9-3 (5-3).

Nebraska

Likely Wins (5): Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Baylor

Likely Losses (2): @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Tossups (6): Virginia Tech, Missouri, @ Iowa State, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Colorado

Prediction: I really do expect NU to be undefeated heading into the Mizzou game. They should handle a thin Virginia Tech squad at home before (I hope) losing to Mizzou. Then it gets tough to predict. I fully expect ISU to beat somebody at home, but I don't think they match up well at all with NU, so NU takes that one. They lose to both Kansas teams, but bounce back to beat CU. Which puts them at...8-4 (4-4).

Colorado

Likely Wins (3): Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Iowa State

Likely Losses (3): @ Florida State, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska.

Prediction: They match up pretty well with WV, I think, but no. They lose that one and lose another tight one to Texas before bouncing back against KSU, then heading down and winning in College Station. From there they take out OSU and lose to NU. 6-6 (4-4).

Kansas State

Likely Wins (3): North Texas, Montana State, UL-Lafayette

Likely Losses (3): Oklahoma, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): @ Louisville, Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State

Prediction: Beat Louisville, lose a tight one to Tech, lose the roadies to ATM and CU, pick off NU and ISU at home. The one trick here is, that would put them at 4-6 heading home for NU and ISU. It's quite possible that they don't keep it together enough to get to 6-6, but I'll say they do it. 6-6 (2-6).

Iowa State

Likely Wins (2): South Dakota State, Kent State

Likely Losses (5): Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, Missouri, @ Kansas State

Tossups (5): @ Iowa, @ UNLV, @ Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Prediction: Iowa's always a tossup, but no. UNLV may actually be decent this year, but...I have to have ISU beating somebody. So they beat UNLV, lose to Baylor and Nebraska, and take out ATM. 4-8 (1-7).

South Division

Oklahoma

Likely Wins (10): Chattanooga, Cincinnati, @ Washington, TCU, @ Baylor, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (2): vs Texas, @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: I put OSU on the tossups list because it always seems like a tight game in Stillwater. And while it's quite possible OU slips up on the road, I just don't know who that's going to be to. So I'll say 12-0 (8-0).

Texas

Likely Wins (7): Florida Atlantic, @ UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (5): @ Colorado, vs Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas

Prediction: I almost picked CU to upset UT until I realized that would mean I'd have UT losing three in a row (after picking them to lose to OU and MU). That's probably not going to happen. So they beat Colorado, lose to OU, MU, and Tech (I guess), and beat Kansas. 9-3 (5-3).

Texas Tech

Likely Wins (6): Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU, UMass, Nebraska, Baylor

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, @ Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Prediction: I just can't see them going better than 3-2 on the road, but I will have them beating KSU and ATM before losing to KU. They then beat UT and OSU to finish...10-2 (6-2).

Oklahoma State

Likely Wins (6): Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Baylor, Iowa State

Likely Losses (2): @ Missouri, @ Texas

Tossups (4): @ Washington State, @ Texas Tech, @ Colorado, Oklahoma

Prediction: The Wazzu game is pretty tricky, but...I'm a minor OSU homer, so I say they'll handle that one. But they'll lose the other three tossups. 7-5 (3-5).

Texas A&M

Likely Wins (2): Arkansas State, Army

Likely Losses (3): @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas

Tossups (7): @ New Mexico, Miami-FL, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Colorado, @ Baylor

Prediction: ATM does have a chance to make something out of this season, but...oy, I don't know. I say they take out the two non-con teams (UNM, Miami), beat KSU, lose to Tech, ISU and CU, then beat Baylor. 6-6 (2-6).

Baylor

Likely Wins (1): Northwestern State

Likely Losses (7): @ UConn, Oklahoma, @ OSU, @ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech.

Tossups (4): Wake Forest, Washington State, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Prediction: If Briles finds and offense and they're tough at home, they could end up with a solid record, as they have 5 winnable home games. But I don't see it happening yet. Beat Iowa State, lose the others. 2-10 (0-8).

STANDINGS

North

Missouri (8-0)
Kansas (5-3)
Nebraska (4-4)
Colorado (4-4)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (1-7)

South

Oklahoma (8-0)
Texas Tech (6-2)
Texas (5-3)
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Texas A&M (2-6)
Baylor (0-8)

Big 12 Championship

So it comes to this. Winner goes to the National Title Game. This is the year Fink beats the stomach, and by God, this is the year Missouri beats Oklahoma. I think. This is turning into the 2000-02 stretch in basketball where we couldn't beat them in the postseason (or season) to save our lives. But we'll say last year's Big 12 title game was the equivalent to losingto them in the Elite Eight in '02. And again...if it happens, I want to say I predicted it.

Missouri > Oklahoma

BOWLS

National Title Game: Missouri, dammit (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl (again): Oklahoma (12-1)
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Texas (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Kansas (9-3)
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6)
Texas Bowl: Colorado (6-6)

Other Bowl Eligible Teams
Kansas State (6-6)

Coming later this week: I put the whole thing together.