SB Nation - Chris Smelley

Q&A With Garnet and Black Attack

FIGUREFOUR — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 05:31:08 -0000

We have worked together this week with Garnet and Black Attack to show the other side of the coin going into Saturday's game in Columbia. We tried to keep it civil and get Cockfan's perspective on the SC football team and strategies going into the final regular season game for both teams. Our responses to their questions can be seen here.

How do you guys see Garcia's progression at QB? How is it that Alshon Jeffery has made such an advance at WR ahead of others?

Garcia has progressed nicely this season. The biggest goals for Garcia after last season were to gain a better grasp of the offense, to learn to protect the ball better, and to learn that he can't rely on his feet to make plays in the college game. He's succeeded in each case. He understands the playbook, has thrown few interceptions (a welcome change after four years of Blake Mitchell and Chris Smelley), and gets happy feet less than he used to. He's really come a long way, and I believe he's in position to break our single-season yardage record if he puts up big numbers against the Tigers and our bowl opponent.

As far as Alshon goes, I think his emergence is partially due to the fact that he's just a great talent. He wasn't very present early on in the year because he didn't know the offense very well, but once he had learned his position, he was ready to go out and contribute. Spurrier always said he was a talent, a guy who could make big catches whenever he's in position to do so. That turned out to be true. The only other guy that might rival him in talent and athletic ability is Tori Gurley, but Gurley is a converted defensive back and still needs some work on fundamentals, I think. Moe Brown is also a talented receiver but is more of a speed threat and clearly not the all-around monster Alshon is.

What is the problem with the offensive line? Why has there been so little progress in the running game considering the attention to it in the offseason?

As far as the running game goes, I think there's been more progress than you might see. We actually have a moderately competent running game now. Kenny Miles and Jarvis Giles both average over 5 ypc, and Brian Maddox played well against Florida after a slow start to his season. So, we have solid but not great numbers, which is certainly better than what we had a year ago. The problem is that we fail to commit to the run at times, especially in the second half of games. We at times seem to totally abandon it. I'm putting that on the coaching staff rather than player execution.

The offensive line, in general, is better than in years past. Again, it's not great, but it's improved. Frankly, I think the biggest improvement is in run blocking, and that's the one we're taking least advantage of. Pass protection might be a little better than last year, but it's still quite suspect, as the sacks numbers suggest. The line is also penalty prone, which has killed just as many drives this year as the sacks.

The continued problems, hopefully, will be addressed in the offseason. I think we all had great expectations that Eric Wolford could come in and completely change the character of our line, but we're seeing now that perhaps it takes time for a line to learn a new scheme. Wolford promised that we'd see more zone blocking, but we really haven't seen much of that at all until recently, so perhaps Wolford just needs time to institute these and other changes that he hopes to use to get us to the next level.

Teams have had success over the past few years running the ball against SC, particularly between the tackles. Is this just a depth problem, scheme issue, or a defensive technique issue? Would the Gamecocks consider utilizing Norwood more inside or dropping a safety into the box if Clemson begins running the ball effectively?

I think it's a combination of all the factors you mention. Depth at tackle has been an issue for us in years past and continues to be this year. We came into the year with a good two-deep at tackle, but a season-ending injury to Travian Robertson and a nagging injury to Nathan Pepper have cut into our depth. We're still OK at the position, as Pepper, Ladi Ajiboye, and Melvin Ingram are all solid players, but we clearly begin to tire out at the end of games against teams that pound us; see our game against Alabama.

Scheme is also an issue. We typically run a 4-2-5 that places extra speed on the field in the form of the Spur position, which is basically a roving safety. This scheme is designed to defend the pass and particularly the spread option, as the greater speed on the field makes us less vulnerable to fast runners in space. On the other hand, the lack of a third linebacker in most of our schemes means that we're a little softer inside, as teams like Alabama and Tennessee have been able to expose.

Finally, I think technique is an issue this year. This wasn't a problem last year, but this year's team doesn't tackle very well.

As far as how to solve this problem, we haven't seen the coaches move Norwood to the middle, which has been a fairly constant topic for discussion among fans. I'm not sure if I think this is a good idea or not; Norwood would be a better run stopper than the diminutive Shaq Wilson, but he's also a monster on the outside, often taking two blockers and still getting his share of sacks. It would change our defensive dynamic significantly to move him. At any rate, the coaches don't seem to be into the idea.

One idea that I'd like to see the coaches explore in the offseason is varying the schemes. The 4-2-5 is great against Florida's spread and, to a lesser degree, offenses like Petrino's air attack and Ole Miss's idiosyncratic offense, which relies on a mix of passing the ball and getting Dexter McCluster on the edge. On the other hand, it doesn't work so well against Alabama, Tennessee, or the downhill running attack Florida has adopted at times this year. I would like to see us explore moving to a 4-3 more often against those teams, at least if we can find the personnel to do so.

SC has had a few big name defensive coordinators over the past few years. What are your thoughts about Ellis Johnson compared to Charley Strong?

I think both are great coordinators, clearly. Both have had great defenses at Carolina despite not having the benefits of the kind of talent an LSU or a Florida can have. I will say that in some ways what Strong did is more impressive, in that Johnson has had the benefit of more talent to work with. One of the amazing things about those Lou Holtz Outback Bowl teams is that they really weren't as talented as our teams now are. That staff really got the most out of those guys. Johnson, though, is still doing a great job.

You can also count me as part of the group that would love to see us explore Strong as a possible head coach when Spurrier hits the road.

SC utilizes three RB's extensively. Can you describe each back's style and rank them based on your perception of play this season?

That's right; we run with three backs--actually four if you include Bryce Sherman--and each have different styles. Kenny Miles has gotten most of the playing time this year. He's a good all-around back that runs hard downfield and combines moderate speed with the ability to break tackles. Jarvis Giles is more of a speedster, a guy who I'd like to see us get the ball to in space more often. Sherman is a dimunitive burner in the mold of LSU's Trindon Holliday; you'll only see us use him in gadget plays and packages that are specially designed to get him the ball in space. Brian Maddox is more of a power back and is the likely starter this weekend. He's also a good blocker and receiver, which is one reason that Spurrier continues to play him despite the fact that he doesn't seem to run the ball as well as the other two.

I don't like to rank the backs because each is different. I do, though, think we could utilize them better. I think we should, for the most part, use Maddox and Miles, Maddox in short-yardage and obvious passing situations and Miles in all other situations. Giles I think we should use as a utility player at this point, as is already the case for Sherman. Basically, I think we should rotate the group more often rather than trying to settle on one or the other, which is what we've been doing.

SC had a good deal of success early but has struggled late. What positives from early on do the Gamecocks need to get back to? What mistakes does this team need to shore up? Can these issues be corrected?

I think, first of all, that we need to get back to not turning the ball over. We were a very low-turnover team early in the season, and while Garcia certainly isn't reincarnating Blake Mitchell now, he isn't protecting the ball quite as well as he did early in the year. That hurt us against Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida. If we can get back to not turning the ball over against Clemson, our defense will be able to keep us in the game until the end. I do think we can succeed here, but it won't be easy against Clemson's pass rush.

I'd also like to see us do some of the things I've alluded to in the above answers. This offense has had trouble scoring touchdowns all year, and I think getting back to the running game and short passing game might help us do better there. Our basic MO at this point is to move the ball well on our side of the field by running our basic offense and then to go straight for the jugular as soon as we get to the opponents 35 or so. Predictably, this tends to result in incomplete passes, interceptions, and sacks that take us out of field goal range. Now, I'm not averse to throwing deep for the score. However, when you do it all the time, opponents know it's coming, and they have a safety play smart on the deep throw and blitz all their big fellas. The results are predictable. I'd like to see us get back to just trying to move the ball into the redzone and go for more high-percentage scores.

I have always been intrigued by the magic trick before the Gamecocks enter the field. Does anyone other than Cocky know how this is executed? Trap door? Magic dust?

Sorry, but there are some things about the Gamecocks that we just don't like to share with Clemson people. This is one of them.

Previewing Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Three Keys, Fun Memory, and Prediction

Gamecock Man — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 22:40:53 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

about 1 month ago: Georgia defensive end Demarcus Dobbs (58) pressures Vanderbilt quarterback Larry Smith, right, during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

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Time to host the Vanderbilt Commodores for homecoming. Here are my thoughts on the game.

Three Keys

1. Motivation

I don't mean to disrespect Vandy, but we all know that the 'Dores aren't as talented as we are. However, the past two years the 'Dores have been the better team, as they've come to play confident and mentally prepared, whereas as we've come out unfocused and mistake-prone. This year needs to be different. The players have motivation to come out and play their best in this game, that motivation being the fact that they've made fools of themselves in this game for two straight years and have had to endure trash talk from Bobby Johnson. If they can't come out ready to lay the wood tomorrow night, something is wrong with them.

2. Turnovers

Turnovers have killed us the last two years against Vandy. I mean, seriously, how many times have we thrown interceptions against these guys just when you think we're about to march down the field and score? And to tell the truth, I don't think Vandy is good enough to beat us without coming up way ahead in turnover margin. The problem, of course, is that Vandy knows this and is good at taking calculated risks that end up netting them the turnovers they need. We--especially Stephen Garcia and our offensive line--need to be prepared for this and come out playing smart ball.

3. Running the Football

Vandy has a solid passing defense and relies on turnovers to win games. How do you counter this? You run the football well. For some reason, in both of the past two games against Vandy, we've abandoned the run, despite the fact that we have a size and talent advantage against Vandy in the trenches. With our new focus on running the ball better, I don't think that will be the case this year. We'll run the ball early and often, and whether or not we are successful doing so will go a long way towards telling us how we do in this game.

Fun Memory

Remember this game? Our last win against the 'Dores. Despite fumbling the ball a few times, we lit Vandy up in this one. This win started a streak of good play for us that ended with the Vandy loss the following year. Hopefully we'll see the team come out playing like this again (without the fumbles) and gain some momentum going into the tough stretch ahead.

Prediction

This game worries me simply because we've played so poorly against this team the past two years. However, while this Gamecocks team still has many flaws, it appears to have drastically improved in the area that's been most detrimental to us in the past two Vandy games: turnover margin. Stephen Garcia only has four interceptions on the year, or, in other words, one more than Blake Mitchell and Chris Smelley combined to throw in the infamous 2007 Vandy game. If we can continue to protect the ball well, we'll take away Vandy's best chance to win this game. That's exactly what we'll see happen. I doubt we'll light Vandy up considering the defense they have, but I do think you'll see us pull away late in a physical game for something like a 24-27 to 6-10 Gamecocks victory.

Previewing South Carolina at Alabama: Topics for Discussion on the 'Bama Defense

Gamecock Man — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:52:21 -0000

More photos » by Mary Ann Chastain - AP

Will Kenny Miles be able to sniff the end zone against 'Bama?

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How well can we run against Alabama? The Tide have one of the country's best rushing defenses. They held Ole Miss to only around 70 yards last week; they held Dexter McCluster to 2.5 ypc. While I've been impressed with our improved running game this year, I don't think we're going to be able to run the ball effectively against Alabama, at least not in the traditional way. If we can open up the offense and force 'Bama to respect the pass, we may be able to surprise them on the ground. Between the tackles from start to finish is unlikely, though.
Can our offensive line protect Stephen Garcia? Garcia was sacked three times last week and hurried a few more times. Bama's defensive front is better than Kentucky's. That equals possible trouble. I see two solutions to this problem, and we'll probably need a combination of the two for true success. One is for our line to play the game of their lives. The other is for Spurrier and the staff to devise a game plan that negates 'Bama's defensive line. We've seen Spurrier do this to some success before, such as when he often had Chris Smelley roll out a few times last year against Ole Miss. Garcia is more mobile than Smelley, so I would think he has an ideal skill set for this kind of approach.
Can we handle a good man defense? We've had success against zones than against man coverage this year. However, Alshon Jeffrey's emergence last week gives me hope that we now have a weapon with which to punish aggressive defenses. We'll see if Alshon and Garcia can hook up again against a better secondary.

UK @ South Carolina: Breaking Down the Gamecocks and Other Stuff

Ken Howlett — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 09:02:11 -0000

More photos » by John Raoux - AP

"I want to beat Spurrier just one time before I retire!"

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The Kentucky Wildcats enter today's 12:30 EST titanic tilt with the South Carolina Gamecocks on the precipice ,,, looking down at the rocks below. Mind you, it isn't an unexpected precipice. Two months ago we all had the road map in the form of the game schedule, so UK sitting at 2-2, staring at two tough road games (isn't that redundant?), should not come as a surprise. The mystery, the unknown, however, is how Kentucky will respond.

Certainly, the Wildcats' play last Saturday against Alabama was a marked improvement over the effort put forth in Lexington versus Florida -- Kentucky ran the ball very well, considering the defense they were facing, and UK's defense held the Tide to nearly 150 yards less than their per game average -- But now, on the road, in front of a famously hostile crowd, will the 'Cats continue on an upward arc?

The answer to that, my friends, lies in the "turnover" category. If Kentucky plays as well as they did against Alabama last Saturday -- with a big caveat -- minus the turnovers (as well as excessive penalties), then they will have a legitimate chance to win today's ballgame, BUT, if UK is in the negative in turnover margin, if they continue to give up possession, they'll go down faster than a sluggish stock market. You can bet your Visor on that.

It's really just that simple -- Kentucky has the talent to win today's game, but talent doesn't trump turnovers.

For more on the game, South Carolina's personnel, and UK in the SEC rankings, make the jump with me.

South Carolina Vitals

Points Per Game: USC - 27.2, Opp's - 16.8

Rush Yards Per Game: USC - 157.4, Opp's - 114.2

Average Per Rush: USC - 4.5, Opp's - 3.2

Pass Yards Per Game: USC - 214.8, Opp's - 150.2

Yards Per Completion: USC - 11.1, Opp's - 10.0

Total Offense: USC - 372.2, Opp's - 264.4

KO Return Avg.: USC - 21.2, Opp's - 26.2

Punt Return Avg.: USC - 7.9, Opp's - 15.8

Turnover Margin: USC - +4

3rd Down Conversion: USC - 38.0%, Opp's - 37.0%

Sacks By: USC - 14, Opp's - 12

Red Zone TD%: USC - 46% (12-26), Opp's - 55% (6-11)

Kentucky and South Carolina SEC Rankings (Keep in mind UK is coming off back-to-back games against two of the three best teams in the country)

Scoring: UK - 25.0 (11), USC - 27.2 (t8)

Scoring Defense: UK - 26.5 (10), USC - 16.8 (6)

Total Offense: UK - 328.5 (11), USC - 372.2 (8)

Total Defense: UK - 353.2 (10), USC - 264.4 (3)

Rush Offense: UK - 158.0 (8), USC - 157.4 (9)

Rush Defense: UK - 190.2 (12), USC - 114.2 (3)

Pass Offense: UK - 170.5 (11), USC - 214.8 (6)

Pass Defense: UK - 163.0 (6), USC - 150.2 (3)

Kickoff Return: UK - 28.3 (3), USC - 21.2 (10)

Punt Return: UK - 10.7 (4), USC - 7.9 (7)

Sacks By: UK - 8 (t8), USC - 14 (2)

Sacks Against: UK - 5 (t3), USC - 12 (10)

3rd Down Conversion: UK - 41.4 (5), USC - 38.0 (8)

Opp. Third Down Conversion: UK - 38.7 (11), USC - 36.8 (8)

Penalty Yards: UK - 65.5 (9), USC - 63.4 (8)

Turnover Margin: UK - -4 (10), USC - +4 (5)

Red Zone Scores: UK - 9-11 (8), USC - 20-26 (11)

Red Zone Defense: UK - 13-17 (5), USC - 9-11 (6)

Wildcats in the SEC Rankings

Junior running back Derrick Locke is No. 2 in the league in punt return average at 10.8 yards per return, and No. 2 in the SEC in kickoff returns, averaging 33.9 yards per return. Locke is No. 1 in the SEC in all purpose yardage (rushing, receiving and returns) with a 173.2 yards per game average. UK's middle linebacker Micah Johnson is No. 5 in the conference in tackles with 35 (8.8 tpg).

South Carolina Offensive Personnel

Stephen Garcia -- 6'2", 219 lb sophomore quarterback: Garcia is 93-155 (60.0%) through the air, good for 1.035 yards and six touchdowns. He's tossed only two interceptions. He's also ran for 142 positive yards on 36 rushes, and two touchdowns. Last year versus UK, Garcia replaced starter Chris Smelley in the fourth quarter, and threw for 169 yards and one touchdown on 10-14 (71.4%) accuracy in the Gamecocks come-from-behind 24-17 victory.

Garcia is a highly mobile, strong-armed quarterback who is playing much better than most prognosticators predicted. The Gamecocks offensive line, though, hasn't been diligent in protecting Garcia -- He's been sacked 12 times in only four games, an area UK must take advantage of, because if Garcia is given time, he'll pick apart UK's secondary.

At the beginning of the season I thought UK would have the better of the two quarterbacks going in this game, but I've since changed my mind. If Garcia is efficient with his passes, and troubles the UK defense as much as other mobile quarterbacks, then SC will be half-way home to yet another victory over Kentucky.

Jarvis Giles -- 5'11", 183 lb freshman running back: Giles leads the Gamecocks with 39 rushes, resulting in 231 yards gained (5.9 yards per carry), and one touchdown. He also has four catches for 24 yards (6.0 yards per reception). Giles was the No. 22 player in Florida last season, as rated by Rivals. He was the No. 21 running back prospect in the country according to Scout.

Kenny Miles -- 5'9", 183 lb redshirt freshman running back: Miles has rushed 28 times for 168 yards (6.0 ypc), and one touchdown. He's snagged three passes for 15 yards (5.0 ypr). Coming out of high school, Miles was rated the No. 33 running back in the nation by Rivals.

Brian Maddox -- 5'11", 224 lb junior running back: The elder statesman among the Gamecocks' backs, Maddox leads the team in carries with 52, good for 162 yards (3.1 ypc) and three touchdowns. He's also caught seven passes for 50 yards (7.1 ypr), and two touchdowns.

Moe Brown -- 6'0", 183 lb senior wide receiver: Brown leads the team with 18 catches, 283 receiving yards (15.7 ypr), and two touchdowns.

Tori Gurley -- 6'5", 227 lb redshirt freshman wide receiver: Gurley has accounted for 17 receptions for 244 yards (14.4 ypr), and one touchdown.

Jason Barnes -- 6'4", 199 lb sophomore wide receiver: This season Barnes has eight catches for 102 yards (12.8 ypr). Last year versus UK, Barnes had four catches for 88 yards (22.0 ypr) -- all in the fourth quarter -- of the Gamecock comeback win.

Alshon Jeffery -- 6'3", 217 lb freshman wide receiver: Jeffery has five catches for 61 yards (12.2 ypr), and one touchdown. Two years ago, the highly sought after receiver was rated the No. 99 pass catcher in the Rivals top-100, and the No. 13 receiver prospect in the country. He was the No. 74 rated player in the nation by PrepStar.

Patrick DiMarco -- 6'0", 243 lb junior fullback: Although a fullback, DiMarco is third on the team with 11 receptions for 70 yards (6.4 ypr), and one touchdown.

* South Carolina starting tight end Weslye Saunders will not play in today's game. Saunders has caught 14 passes for 156 yards (11.1 ypr) this year. Last season versus UK, Saunders made the game-winning catch. His most likely replacement at the tight end spot this afternoon is 6'3", 231 lb redshirt freshman Mike Triglia.

South Carolina Defensive Personnel

Eric Norwood -- 6'1", 252 lb senior linebacker: Norwood, a two-time First Team All-SEC selection leads South Carolina with 30 tackles (19 solo), 6.5 tackles for loss (leads the SEC) and six sacks (leads the SEC). He's also recorded two interceptions and five quarterback hurries. For his outstanding career, Norwood has executed 204 tackles, 49.5 tackles for loss, and 28 sacks (he's the active SEC leader in tackles for loss and sacks).

Stay away from this guy, if at all possible. Norwood is extremely quick to the ball, and the passer. Although UK has done a good job of protecting Mike Hartline, Norwood could prove to be the difference in the game, especially considering UK is without senior right tackle Justin Jefferies.

Perhaps more important for UK than protecting the quarterback, is ensuring the running game is at full steam But once again, Norwood is capable of slowing down the run, which would spell doom for the 'Cats on this day.

Chris Culliver -- 6'0", 190 lb junior free safety: Culliver has 29 tackles (18 solo), .5 tackles for loss, and five pass breakups. Last year versus UK, Culliver recorded the first two interceptions of his career. His last interception sealing the game for Carolina.

Stay away from this guy, if at all possible. Just another reason to run, run, run.

Shaq Wilson -- 5'11", 210 lb sophomore linebacker: Wilson has accounted or 28 tackles (14 solo), and one pass breakup.

Wilson was projected as a back-up to Norwood at the beginning of the season, but his aggressive, hard-hitting style has elevated him to starter's reps.

Darian Stewart -- 5'11", 216 lb senior strong safety: Stewart, who plays a mixture of safety and linebacker, has made 25 tackles (16 solo), 3.5 tackles for loss, and two pass breakups. He recorded seven tackles against UK in 2008.

Cliff Matthews -- 6'4", 249 lb junior defensive end: Matthews has recorded 20 tackles, (17 solo), six tackles for loss (second on the team), four sacks (also, second on the team), and one pass breakup.

Devin Taylor -- 6'7", 232 lb redshirt freshman defensive end: Taylor has made 16 tackles (8 solo), one sack and 4.5 tackles for loss.

Stephon Gilmore -- 6'1", 188 lb freshman corner back: The Parade All-America has recorded 19 tackles (10 solo), two tackles for loss, one sack, one interception, and two pass breakups.

South Carolina Special Teams Personnel

Placekicker and Punter, Spencer Lanning -- Lanning is 10-11 on his field goal attempts, but his longest make is only 41 yards. He averages a solid 41.9 yards per punt.

Kicker, Adam Yates -- Yates handles the kickoffs: On 28 kickoffs, he's had only one touchback.

Punt Returner, Akeem Auguste -- He's returned six punts for 17 yards (2.8 yards per return).

Punt Returner, Stephon Gilmore -- Gilmore has returned two punts for 42 yards (21.0 ypr).

Kickoff Returner, Chris Culliver -- He's returned 13 kicks for 279 yards (21.5 ypr).

Kickoff Returner, Bryce Sherman -- Four returned kicks for 106 yards (26.5 ypr).

UK Injuries

As most know by now, the Wildcats' two starting corner backs, senior Trevard Lindley and junior Paul Warford, are both injured and will not play today. Replacing the two will be sophomore Randall Burden (four games played; 13 tackles and two pass breakups) and true freshman Netavious Neloms (four games played; seven tackles).

Also missing from action for UK will be "protector designate" of Hartline's grill, senior right tackle, Justin Jefferies. He'll be replaced by junior Brad Durham.

Happy Birthdays

A big HAPPY BIRTHDAY to my brother Jason, his son Jonah, and my nephew Josiah.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the Gamecocks!

Monday News and Notes: Eric Norwood Wins Defensive Player of the Week; News from Tigerland

Gamecock Man — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:51:38 -0000

Eric Norwood is defensive player of the week:

Norwood had 10 tackles, two sacks and a partially blocked punt in an upset of Mississippi.

A well-deserved award for Norwood.

Is there trouble afoot in Clemson?:

Willy Korn wants to play, said he was "guaranteed" by coach Dabo Swinney that he would, but there’s no truth to the rumors that he has decided to transfer after this season. However, Korn left open the possibility that after the season things could change. "I’m going to be here the entire season," he said. "Everyone at the end of the season kind of looks at their situations, sees how the season went and how their career’s been going. Everybody takes a look at it, but it’s nothing that I can forecast this early in the season.

Actually, I'm not really sure I'd call this "trouble" for anyone but Korn and perhaps the Tigers' emergency depth. Kyle Parker appears to be the better quarterback, so losing Korn would be a lot like what losing Chris Smelley was like for us. Only Smelley at least had the pleasure of winning a few big games during his time here.

Blogger Q&A - South Carolina

Juco All-American — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 05:00:15 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

South Carolina's Tori Gurley (81) celebrates with teammate Weslye Saunders after catching a touchdown pass in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Georgia Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009 in Athens, Ga.

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In case this is your first football season with us, let me introduce our Blogger Q&A. Blogger Q&A is a weekly entry we do with a bloggeur from a blog of our opponent. I contacted Gamecock Man over at Garnet and Black Attack (SBNation's South Carolina Blog) to do this week's Blogger Q&A.

His questions and my responses are up at Garnet and Black Attack here.

1. Jared Cook was a major difference maker in last year's game with 88 receiving yards. Which Gamecock player is likely to be that difference maker come Thursday night?

I'm going to go with Tori Gurley. Gurley has been the go-to receiver in the vertical game so far this year, but most of his biggest plays have been called back for some reason or another. I think this will be the game where he makes a couple of big, gamebreaking catches that will stand. You can expect to see us try to use his height in post-up situations in the endzone.

2. Steve Spurrier does not seem to have the same magic he had at Florida. Has the game outgrown him, or is South Carolina too difficult of an environment for him to sustain significant success?

Mostly the latter. Spurrier is still capable of calling a good ballgame. When his line and quarterbacks have performed, he has had good offenses. However, he hasn't had the talent he used to have at Florida, so success has only been intermittent.

This isn't to say that he hasn't made mistakes. Part of the blame for Blake Mitchell and Chris Smelley's lack of development certainly falls on Spurrier's shoulders. He may still be a great play caller, but perhaps he's not as good at working with quarterbacks as he used to be. Part of the blame for the development and other problems, also, lies on his loyalty to poor assistants like former line coach John Hunt. Luckily, some of those problems have been solved and we appear to have a better staff now.

All of that said, I should stress that I don't think it's impossible to win big in Columbia. Spurrier has made some strides in recruiting that suggests that we might be able to make a run soon. We'll see.

3. Last season, Chris Smelley threw for over 300 yards against the Rebels. The same Chris Smelley is no longer playing football. Was he playing inspired ball or was the Rebel secondary just that bad? Will Garcia be able to produce in a similar fashion this season?

I think he was playing inspired ball. Smelley was capable of playing extremely well on the right day. He was also capable of throwing four interceptions on a bad day. I do remember thinking that we benefitted from some rather conspicuous breakdowns in coverage against you guys last year, but Spurrier's strength is that he knows how to beat opposing defensive coordinators in terms of getting receivers open. The difference in that game was that his quarterback delivered the goods like one of his Florida guys would have in the old days.

I do think Garcia is capable of producing at a similar level. He's come close in the past couple of games against Georgia and Florida Atlantic, but he's yet to quite get the right distance on his deep ball. I'm interested to see how he responds if Ole Miss plays more man defense than Georgia did. Against Georgia, Garcia put up good numbers by picking apart the underneath of Georgia's zone. I think coordinators will now try to take those plays away with man defenses. However, that could open things up for a vertical attack. If Garcia makes those throws, that is.

4. The Gamecocks' victory over NCState was sloppy, whereas they looked quite strong against Georgia. How much and in what areas did South Carolina improve from game 1 to game 2.

First of all, I think Spurrier called the N. C. State game quite conservatively. Against Georgia, he went to the air more often, and Garcia and company showed that we can move the ball that way. So in a way, it was probably just a matter of opening it up a bit and taking advantage of our strengths and what the 'Dawgs gave us. Red-zone production was also better against Georgia. Against N. C. State, we were in the red zone multiple times after the first touchdown but got no points due to special teams woes. Against Georgia, we still had problems scoring touchdowns, but at least we got something.

5. What is your score prediction and why?

I'm a little torn about this one. I think that this Carolina team is one complete game away from proving that it's capable of beating the best SEC teams, and with this game in Columbia, I think you'll see us bid for the upset if we play anywhere near our peak. My gut tells me that we'll win it, but my head tells me that until we prove that we can overcome some defensive and special teams shortcomings, I shouldn't bet against a team like Ole Miss. I'm going to go with Ole Miss in a fairly high-scoring game. Let's say 38-35. I might change my mind on gameday, though, so drop by to see my preview. In any case, I think we should all expect a very exciting night of football. May the best team win!

Reviewing South Carolina at N. C. State: Should We Be Worried or Hopeful?

Gamecock Man — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:36:24 -0000

by Gerry Broome - AP

3 months ago: South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore, left, breaks up a pass in the end zone intended for North Carolina State's Jarvis Williams, right, during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Raleigh, N.C., Thursday, Sept. 3, 2009. South Carolina won 7-3. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

View full size photo »

I'm going to go ahead and play the eternal optimist and say that I'm cautiously hopeful about the season after watching this game. This isn't to say that there's not reason to worry. As we have at times over the past couple of years, this was a game that we to a certain degree dominated. However, we were incapable of putting the game away, with drives stalling in the red zone and the field-goal unit botching scores. Obviously, getting a touchdown on one of those drives and a field goal on the other would make this game 17-3, a victory that would have struck fear into the hearts into our opponents. We didn't get anything, though, and gave State a chance to win in the process. The game reminded me a lot in that sense of last year's Vandy and, to a certain, UGA games, only this time we managed to sneak out the win, at least in part because N. C. State just wasn't as good as those two teams.

And let's not downplay the fact that State probably isn't as good as advertised, or at least they weren't ready last night. I thought Russell Wilson played better than people are giving him credit for--he made some key throws at times, some of which weren't caught or got called back for penalties that weren't his fault--but I would have to say that he's certainly not making me think Heisman right now. If this guy wins first-team All-ACC, well...you know what I'm thinking. He didn't have the speed to be the elite scrambler I thought he was and his supposedly canny pocket presence was exposed by our defensive front. That's going to continue when the 'Pack play the ACC's elite. And as far as the rest of the team, I guess you could say the place kicker knew what he was doing. I was certainly unimpresed with the offensive line, and although they managed to hold us in the red zone, the defense wasn't always there, either. They did manage to get a little pressure on Garcia at times and their rushing defense looks good on paper. However, a couple of big losses such as Jarvis Giles's ill-advised cutback brought our rushing average down; overall I thought our line was opening some holes on them. All in all, it's great to get a road victory in a hostile atmosphere to start the season, but let's not make anything of it that we shouldn't.

Continue reading after the jump.

However, I also saw a few positives that have me hoping that this team can win seven or eight games. First of all, it didn't show on the scoreboard, but the offense wasn't bad. Although in no way great, the running game and line looked markedly improved. I have a feeling Brian Maddox and Jarvis Giles can do things for us this year. (I'm still unsure why Spurrier didn't get Maddox more carries in the second half; he was on his way to a 100-yard game at halftime.) Second of all, I think Garcia looked much improved. Again, he wasn't great. He missed some open receivers, his pocket presence will have to improve, and as lots of people have commented, he'd better learn to slide real soon. I appreciate the fearlessness and that hurdle was pretty, but there are players in Athens and Gainesville that will break him in half if he keeps that stuff up. I'm sure the coaching staff knows and is telling him this; hopefully he'll learn before he gets knocked out of the season. His interception wasn't pretty, although it was definitely the kind that look worse on TV than it really is. He saw what looked like an open receiver but didn't see the end in coverage, who was probably right outside his field of vision; that's not as unforgivable as throwing into triple coverage. At the same time, Garcia did manage to make some good reads and find some open receivers at times. The throw to Moe Brown to seal it at the end was great. Perhaps just as importantly, he had only one turnover last night. Garcia may not have looked like Tim Tebow, but he didn't do the things that he and Chris Smelley did last year to blow games for us. He's playing smarter, and with more wins and improved confidence, he'll also start to play better.

Which brings us to the most important and final point: our defense looks to be great, and if we can avoid beating ourselves, and we showed evidence that we're capable of doing that last night, our defense will keep us in almost every game we play this year. I'm still worried about the secondary and losing Rodney Paulk is a big blow. However, initial evidence is that the secondary has grown up fast and will be much better than advertised. Moreover, I thought Shaq Wilson made some good plays and looked ready to step in for Paulk. Finally, Eric Norwood and our defensive line are going to give us one of the SEC's best pass rushes this year. Norwood, Cliff Matthews, and Nathan Pepper looked fantastic last night. And keep in mind that we were without two starting linemen, one--Clifton Geathers--an elite pass rusher himself. Opposing quarterbacks beware.

So, I see some reason to be hopeful. Some reason to doubt, too, but more to be hopeful: this was probably the best a team could look in a 7-3 win. If a few more things come together, we could win some games this year. UGA is next and with that game comes a chance to pull off a season-defining upset. I'm still not sure we can do it, but we've got a chance, and don't forget that we get to rest our legs and regroup while the 'Dawgs fly into the pressure cooker Saturday.

So, do you agree? Disagree? Somewhere in between? Feel free to use the Fanposts if you want to write a long review.

ATVSQBPI: Past is Prologue

Richard Pittman — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0000

Former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put on his old jersey and celebrated his pretty good ATVSQBPI from 2007.

You wanted more information about the And The Valley Shook Quarterback Productivity Index, and I am here to give it to you. I have the data going back three years in the SEC. The first year can be found here, and we will reproduce it for this post.

Again, reminding you that the formula is as follows:

ATVSQBPI = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Interceptions)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

The explanation for why we use this particular formula is found here, but realize we are not using the complete formula because First Down stats are not quite as readily available, and it should pretty much wash out anyway. Plus, we've all gotten used to the scale this particular metric gives us.

Would you like to see 2006 and 2007? How about after the jump?

2008:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Alright, we've been through those numbers once before. Let's take a look at 2007:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	9.11
Ryan Perrilloux, LSU	8.20
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	7.12
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	6.89
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	6.78
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.15
Matt Flynn, LSU	6.08
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	5.81
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.69
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.62
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	5.16
Seth Adams, Ole Miss	5.03
Brandon Cox, Auburn	5.00
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	4.73

What are my take-away messages from this?:

Numbers were generally better in 2007 than they were in 2008.
Wesley Carroll was the worst starting QB in the SEC in both 2008 and 2007.
Tebow was a little better in his Heisman year than in his junior year. Or at least, he was a little more productive.
You really can win with average QB play, if you consider that LSU won the national championship with middle of the pack quarterback play in 2007, while Auburn was a pretty decent team with one of the least effective QBs in the conference. It sure makes it easier, though, if you're really good.
Just look at Ryan Perrilloux. That's what we didn't have in 2008. Well, that and a defense.
Andre Woodson was held back by his awful rushing numbers (not shown).

Let's move on to 2006, in which I lift the numbers straight from my old website:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Jamarcus Russell, LSU	9.16
Blake Mitchell, South Carolina	8.26
Erik Ainge, Tennessee	8.07
Andre Woodson, Kentucky	7.79
Chris Leak, Florida	7.02
Syvelle Newton, South Carolina	7.00
Casey Dick, Arkansas	6.99
Chris Nickson, Vandy	6.55
Brandon Cox, Auburn	6.37
John Parker Wilson, Bama	6.14
Omarr Conner, Mississippi State	6.13
Michael Henig, Mississippi State	5.82
Matthew Stafford, UGA	5.78
Mitch Mustain, Arkansas	5.68
Brent Schaeffer, Ole Miss	4.27

What are my take-home messages from 2006?:

Jamarcus Russell had the best ATVSQBPI of any quarterback between the years 2006 and 2008.
But on the other hand, numbers in general declined steadily in those years. Just look at John Parker Wilson. His ATVSQBPI actually fell each year he was a starter, but his ranking increased. Some of the worst QBs in the league in 2006 would have been pretty average in 2008 with the same production. Look at where Omarr Conner and Michael Henig would have ranked in 2008? Does this mean that Michael Henig was as good a quarterback in 2006 as John Parker Wilson was in 2008? Heck no. The steady decline of the mean from year to year, and the reduction in production of John Parker Wilson as he went from sophomore to senior, suggest the reduction is due mostly to better defenses.
Look at the steady progression of Matthew Stafford.
What the heck happened to Blake Mitchell?

If you have any additional thoughts, I welcome you sharing them.

ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index: Let's Look At the Numbers

Richard Pittman — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 16:25:42 -0000

On Friday, I introduced you (again) to the ATVS Quarterback Productivity Index. It is an attempt to improve upon the traditional, but not terribly helpful, "Passer Rating". It is measured in yards per attempt, with bonuses and penalties for interceptions and touchdowns, and includes quarterback rushing statistics as well. Here is the formula:

Passer Rating = (yards passing + yards rushing - yards lost by sack + 5*(First down completions and runs) + 20*Number of Touchdowns - 30*Number of Turnovers)/(Number of pass attempts + rush attempts).

You should think of this as giving a value for how much yardage a quarterback is worth when his number is called, with bonuses and penalties.

I was asked by LSUJonno to take a look at some numbers. I agreed, but there is one problem with that request. One of the statistics I use to compile the index is not generally kept. Without good statistics on 1st Downs, it is impossible to get a good indication of where the numbers are. So, I calculated the numbers simply taking out the 1st down statistics. This should make a dramatic impact on the absolute scale of numbers, as most quarterbacks will probably get 1st downs on approximately half of their completed passes. With a 1st down being worth 5 bonus yards above and beyond the yardage actually gained, you can expect that the actual numbers using the full formula would be 1 to 2 yards higher than are given.

Also, please note, that according to ESPN statistics, no quarterback in the SEC lost a fumble, so that part of the formula washes out.

Before we take a look at the numbers, let's take a look at the perceptions. If you ask most observers, they would say that in 2008, there were 3 top-tier quarterbacks in the SEC: Tim Tebow of Florida, Matthew Stafford of Georgia, and Jevan Snead of Ole Miss. After that, most would say that there was a second tier of John Parker Wilson of Bama and Casey Dick of Arkansas. Then, there was a monstrous collection of suck throughout the conference. Let's see if the numbers bear this out:

ATVSQBPI Ratings for 2008 SEC Quarterbacks:

Quarterback	ATVSQBPI (y/play)
Tim Tebow, Florida	8.73
Matthew Stafford, Georgia	8.49
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss	7.84
John Parker Wilson, Bama	5.87
Casey Dick, Arkansas	5.68
Jarrett Lee, LSU	5.56
Chris Smelley, South Carolina	5.12
Jordan Jefferson, LSU	5.11
Nick Stephens, Tennessee	5.10
Kodi Burns, Auburn	5.02
Chris Nickson, Vandy	5.01
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina	4.95
Tyson Lee, Mississippi State	4.86
Mike Hartline, Kentucky	4.77
Jonathan Crompton, Tennessee	4.34
Mackenzi Adams, Vandy	4.03
Chris Todd, Auburn	4.02
Wesley Carroll, Mississippi State	2.85

Most of our initial prejudices appear to be born out. There is definitely a first tier, and it includes the quarterbacks we would have expected. Tebow, Stafford, and Snead, and no others.

While Casey Dick and John Parker Wilson were the next two quarterbacks, the second tier didn't quite develop as I would have expected. Jarrett Lee is right there with him, and for that I think you can thank the fact that the formula I use does not distinguish between interceptions returned for a touchdowns and interceptions with no return. After Lee, it is not all that far to the Smelleys and Burnses of the conference.

Also, it is important to realize that other than the top 3 quarterbacks on the list, almost no one had a very good TD/Int ratio. Nine quarterbacks in the SEC threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and 4 had ratios pretty close to 1:1. In the entire SEC, only the following QBs (among the ones with appreciable statistics) had a TD/Int ratio better than 1.5:1: Tebow, Stafford, Snead, Nathan Dick, Jordan Jefferson, and Chris Nickson. That's it.

I did not list the raw statistics, but another feature here is that every quarterbacks rating suffered as a result of their rushing statistics, which is not surprising considering "rushes" includes sacks as well as mad scrambles to escape a rush, which often result in very short gains. The question becomes how much do the rushing statistics hurt each quarterback, and how are they relative to each other. The unfortunate side effect is that quarterbacks who had a lot of designed runs suffered disproportionately, and probably unfairly. Kodi Burns and Stephen Garcia especially saw their ratings suffer.

Tim Tebow's ratings did not suffer much for his running because he's just that darn good at it, and his touchdown numbers really kept him high up the list.

Jarrett Lee was easily the least effective rusher, failing to score a rushing touchdown and averaging a whopping 8.82 yard loss per rush. The good news is that he did not have a lot of rushes, which means he did a good job of getting rid of the ball. But then again, see his 16 interceptions.

It does verify what I told Team Speed Kills back when they were previewing LSU, which was that Jarrett Lee was not the worst QB in the conference. In fact, statistically (both in passer ratings and in ATVSQBPI) he was towards the middle of the pack. People just remember the returns, which weren't really his fault beyond the fact that he threw the interceptions. But everyone threw interceptions except Tebow, Snead, Stafford, and Nickson. Lee was not good, but there were a LOT of 'not good' quarterbacks in the SEC. Among the 'not good' quarterbacks, Lee was actually one of the better ones, especially if you don't blame him for the fact that so many of his interceptions had big returns.

You can decide for yourself if those returns are his fault, beyond the mere fact that he threw the interception that led to the return.

It's too bad I could not add in the first down statistics, as it would have been interesting to see if they made a significant difference in how the quarterbacks ranked.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the raw data if you're interested.

2008 Quarterback Statistics

5 Keys To A Successful Season, Part 5: Quarterback Play

Richard Pittman — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:10:22 -0000

Photo by Kevin C. Cox of Getty Images

If you read the introductory paragraphs in yesterday's installment of this series, you saw us reference "the two biggest things that went wrong with the 2008 season." Yesterday, we covered the breakdowns in the secondary. Today, we go through the other obvious deficiency, the quarterback play.

I have previously defended Jarrett Lee's play, and I continue to do so to a point. Here is what I said to Team Speed Kills:

Alright, let me defend Jarrett Lee for a second. Lee was 5th in the SEC in yards per game, even though he split time early in the year. His completion percentage was within 3.1 percentage points of Jevan Snead's. His passing efficiency was 6th in the conference, and wasn't significantly worse than the 4th rated QB's. He made positive things happen on the field, unlike some QBs in the conference who were more or less empty uniforms (I'm looking at you, Mike Hartline). Yes, he had a very tough time with the interceptions, but he was a heck of a lot better of a quarterback than Jonathan Crompton, Kodi Burns, Mike Hartline, Chris Smelley or Chris Nickson. Things really got bad for him afterAndrew Hatch got hurt. Hatch took a lot of pressure off of Lee, and when Hatch got hurt, all of that pressure fell on Lee. At first, he was able to bounce back from mistakes, but eventually the mistakes just mounted and mounted and mounted and it weighed down on his psyche. I think Jarrett Lee could end up being a fine quarterback. He just has to get past the horrors of last year and get his swagger back.

There are some caveats I left out of that.

First, the "passer rating" is a woefully inadequate measure of a quarterback. In a previous blog, I reviewed in detail how the Passer Rating worked. I will summarize here. The passer rating is a measure of yards per attempt. The passer gets 11.9 bonus yards merely for completing a pass, 39.3 bonus yards for a touchdown pass, and a 23.8 yard penalty for an interception. The whole thing is then multiplied by 8.4 simply to disguise the fact that it's a yards/attempt statistic. They then do a little algebra to make it really confusing exactly what they're doing.

The result is, I suppose, kind of useful, but it's impossible to justify an 11.9 yard bonus merely for completing a pass, and it's equally difficult to justify a cumulative bonus of over 50 yards for a touchdown pass (12 for the completion and 39 for the touchdown) while penalizing an interception not even half as much. It could easily be made more useful simply by adjusting the bonuses and penalties to make more sense, and including the running element, which incidentally, I did with the 2006 numbers. I did it again with the first half of the 2007 season, but then I lost interest in it. And those numbers weren't that great because I couldn't input all the statistics I wanted (not having an easy time finding statistics for 1st down runs and completions, I was forced to do without).

You may hear more of this metric in the future, by the way.

OK, but what does this have to do with Jarrett Lee? Jarrett Lee had a pretty respectable passer rating, but his very poor touchdown-to-interception ratio was not sufficiently punished in the standard metric. Plus, his inability to scramble or run was not taken into account. I maintain that Jarrett Lee was better than Crompton, Burns, and others, but we shouldn't look to the passer rating to show it. He simply did more on the field. He put up yardage and points. His sparkling play in Auburn brought us from the brink in that game. In a year with supposedly horrible quarterback play, we had a receiver lead the league in receptions and touchdown receptions.

It's just hard to ignore those interceptions, in particular the ones returned for touchdowns. It's also hard to ignore how his body language went from good to middling to abysmal as the rough season and the bad press mounted. He may have brought us back from the brink against Auburn, but it was his terrible interception returned for a touchdown that put us on the brink in the first place.

Still, at this point, even if Jarrett Lee was still our starting quarterback, I would rank our QB situation at least 8th in the league at the start of the season, ahead of Tennessee's, Kentucky's, Auburn's, and probably Mississippi State's, and I'd think long and hard about whether or not to rate us higher than Vandy, and it would probably be a tossup with Bama at this point. We could potentially have a quarterback situation that was in the top half of the league at the start with Lee at the helm.

But right now the floor does not belong to Jarrett Lee. It belongs to Jordan Jefferson, who of course had an outstanding game against Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl after a couple of middling performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas. Jefferson adds a running dimension that Jarrett Lee simply cannot bring to the table. He also seems to have that je ne sais quoi that Lee did not possess, at least not at the end of the year. That intangible thing that sportscasters and commentators sometimes call that "it factor". For what it's worth, I thought Lee had it too, at least at one point last season. I thought he had "moxie, or at least confidence," and I think he really did. It just wasn't an invincible confidence, and it was vinced.

Besides moxie and confidence, which Jordan Jefferson has, he also has a pretty darn good arm. It's not an elite Jamarcus Russell-like arm, but it's a very solid college arm. As of the end of last season, he was still trying to marshal that arm and hit the right receivers at the right time, but he didn't do badly for a true freshman who was supposed to redshirt. Here are some Jordan Jefferson highlights from the Peach Bowl:

The flip pass gets a lot of attention, and I think it shows that he has the derring-do to be a special quarterback. Not that I want him doing a whole lot of underhand passes, but you have to like that as a true freshman he did not panic when the play broke down, and he made something positive happen. He made a ton of progress between the end of the regular season and the start of the Peach Bowl, and he certainly has a long way to go still, but you have to be pleased that he made such a good progression in that time. There's no reason to believe he will stop progressing.

It would not surprise me at all to see LSU use a two-quarterback rotation, with true freshman Russell Shepard getting 5-or-so snaps per game as a change of pace game-breaking runner with the ability to throw the ball. As of right now, the coaches have been quiet about how they expect to use Shepard, but most observers expect him to be put on the field immediately in some capacity, perhaps as a receiver, perhaps as a punt returner, perhaps as a running quarterback. He is electric with the ball, and he's been in school since January.

We obviously need to improve the quarterback play to have success this year. Jarrett Lee was in a tough situation, and while he was not the worst QB in the conference, he was not good enough consistently enough to allow us to have the kind of success we want to have. Not all the blame goes on him. Our pass defense really was abysmal. Jarrett Lee had nothing to do with allowing Jevan Snead nearly 10 yards per attempt, and he had nothing to do with making Chris Todd and Tyson Lee look competent. This is just one of the areas that needs improving, but it is a big one.