SB Nation - Nate Davis

Indiana Hoosiers 2008 season in review: Ball State and Central Michigan.

John M (The Crimson Quarry) — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 18:48:48 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Ball State's Nate Davis, now with the San Francisco 49ers, looked like a pro prospect against the 2008 Hoosiers.

The Ball State and Central Michigan games were not played consecutively: IU played Ball State in September, when the Hoosiers were 2-0 after two easy wins over overmatched programs. The CMU game, on November 1, was IU's sixth loss of the season and all but guaranteed that the Hoosiers would not return to postseason play. Still, the games remain linked because before 2008, IU had not lost to a MAC school since 1977. In 2008, the Hoosiers dropped two to the MAC, both at gome.

The Ball State game was reasonably hyped as far as September games between IU and a MAC school go. Jason Whitlock had tossed his journalistic objectivity out the window and was shamelessly shilling for his alma mater. Here is my very angry wrapup of a game that IU lost 42-20. Unfortunately, this game foreshadowed the rest of the season, particularly with the surprising struggles of the offense. In 2007, IU averaged over 10 yards per offensive play against Ball State. In 2008, the IU offense largely consisted of ad-libbed Kellen Lewis scrambles. Here's the box score.

Really, the game had everything that would plague the Hoosiers for the rest of the season:

Poor run defense: Miquale Lewis manhandled IU, running for 166 yards on 29 carries (5.7 YPC) and scored four touchdowns.
Poor pass defense: the prolific Nate Davis didn't put up the amazing numbers that he did against other teams, but because of Lewis, he did not have to do so. Still, he was 16-25 for 239 yards and a TD and no interceptions, despite losing his best receiver, Dante Love, to a horrific spine injury that ended Love's career.
Ineffectual pass offense: Kellen Lewis made his career debut at Ball State in 2006. He entered the game as the third string QB, but ultimately led IU back from a 23-7 halftime deficit to win. In 2007, IU averaged nearly 10 yards per offensive play against Ball State's hapless defense. In 2008, Lewis was stuck resorting to scrambles, completing 11 of 25 passes and throwing two intereceptions.
Injuries: Chris Phillips, one of IU's starting quarters, suffered a season-ending knee injury on a non-contact play. Nick Polk and Austin Thomas also were injured in the game.

It's still not clear to me how good Ball State was in 2008. The Cardinals cruised through the MAC, but IU was the toughest non-conference opponent the Cardinals played, and they gacked up the MAC title game against Buffalo and lost their bowl game. Still, it's undisputable that they were much, much better than IU, and most IU fans realized that a repeat of 2007 was unlikely.

Malaise had set in by the time IU played Central Michigan on November 1, but IU had briefly revived hope of improvement by upsetting Northwestern on October 25. Still, the CMU game was a new low, and here is why:

The loss in itself, while disappointing, isn't the embarrassing part. Upsets happen, and Central Michigan is one of the best teams in the MAC this year. Better Big Ten teams have lost to worse [MAC] teams. The embarrassing part is that CMU won without even giving its best shot. The Chippewas' star quarterback, Dan LeFevour, was apparently available, if hobbled by ankle injuries. CMU elected to hold him back and started backup Brian Brunner, who promptly passed for a school record 485 yards. Four hundred eighty five yards to a backup MAC quarterback. Pathetic. Here are the stats. The overall numbers are fairly even: CMU out-gained IU 522-485. Still, IU's offense bogged down when it counted. IU gained only 27 yards in the fourth quarter.

As I noted, it was a fairly even game statistically, and IU missed on some chances to make it a two possession game in the fourth quarter. It didn't happen, and IU lost.

I will have one more "season in review" post that will cover the games against MSU and Minnesota, neither of which is on IU's 2009 schedule. I'll handle all other 2008 wrap-ups in the season previews, which will continue in earnest soon.

Weighing in on the MAC. Version 2009

Jerry Burnes — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 05:30:08 -0000

Dan LeFevour: Wearing cool polo shirts and running circles around defenders.

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Well it's that time of year again-it's almost football season. With MAC Media Day kicking off on Friday in Detroit I figured I would weigh in on Mid-American Conference.

Now last year gave us a few shockers in Buffalo and Ball State (seriously, even without Dante Love they almost ran the table). And as much as I loved seeing Larry English with Vern Smith No. 2; I still think BSU's Nate Davis was the true MAC MVP. Though don't me wrong, English was deserving of it.

So what does this year have in store? If it's anything like last season; it should be a fun ride to Detroit. Let the preview begin!

First thing I see looking at the conference are the quarterbacks. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan) and Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) have outside, but serious, shots at garnering some Heisman talk. Tyler Sheehan of Bowling Green looks to be the next best, especially in a tight MAC East that produced a ton of points last season. We had the chance to see a young quarterback in Chandler Harnish take the reins at NIU. If he improves in the passing game and decision making he will be top MAC quarterback soon. Along with them there's experience in Andy Schmitt (Eastern Michigan), Aaron Opelt (Toledo) and Dan Raudabaugh (Miami-OH) who are either seniors or saw significant playing time last season.

Winning the MAC East this year is Bowling Green. Again, I think Sheehan shows up this year big for the Falcons and their offense will be tough to stop. Although, as in most years, the division is up for grabs. I'll go with the following to finish out: 2) Temple, 3) Ohio, 4) Buffalo, 5) Akron, 6) Miami-OH, 7) Kent State.

Winning the MAC West will be a bit tougher to decide. I'm going with Central Michigan. If LeFevour can stay healthy they are the best team in the MAC and I'll also pick them to win the MAC title. Western Michigan is great with Hiller and running back David West but LeFevour has more weapons with Antonio Brown (check out his pic. Scary.), Bryan Anderson and Kito Poblah. Here's how the rest goes: 2) Western Michigan, 3) Northern Illinois, 4) Ball State, 5) Toledo, 6) Eastern Michigan.

This year's MAC MVP I see going to Hiller. As I said, he has less weapons than LeFevour and as English proved last year, you don't always have to win the conference. Hiller is an NFL-type talent and might be a limp a little out of the gates while recovering from off-season knee surgery. If he propels himself to a good season and WMU to victories (they do host CMU this year, by the way) he should solidify himself as the player most valuable to his team.

Freshman to watch to this season is Buffalo linebacker Darius Willis. He's 6-2, 235 and was offered scholarships and recruited by pretty much every Big 12 school, Oklahoma included. Buffalo was where he could start as a true freshman. Willis had some issues with his SATs last season that forced him to not enroll until January. He was recruited as a quarterback also. He's likely to start at middle linebacker. Don't be surprised to see him pop up on some All-MAC lists.

Riding this year's dark horse is Temple. The Owls aren't known for football but have certainly come into their own since joining the MAC. I know I have them No. 2 in the East but I still find it hard to believe (along with others) that Temple has a chance to make the trip to Detroit and possibly go bowling. I would also still keep an eye on Ball State. They still have MiQuale Lewis in the backfield and Brandon Crawford manning the defensive end position. Might be time to see if my Davis for '08 MVP was out of line or not.

The two best players I haven't mentioned are Toledo safety Barry Church and Kent State running back Eugene Jarvis. Church is on the watch lists for the Bronco Nagurski Award (top defensive player) and also the Jim Thorpe Award (top defensive back). He was named third team All-American by Phil Steele's College Football Preview and can become the second Toledo player to be named first team All-MAC for four seasons. He's been creating havoc for MAC opponents. Averaged 7.8 tackles per game and broke up six passes, forcing three fumbles last season.

Jarvis, listed at 5-5, 170, had 801 yards and nine touchdowns last season but only played in nine games. He averaged 4.9 yards a carry and 89 yards a game. He also had 273 receiving yards and one touchdown. Ignoring his size he's one of the elite MAC backs. Quarterback Julian Edelman led the team is rushing in his absence with 1,370 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also threw for over 1,800 yards with 13 touchdowns. Back to Jarvis, he has gained comparison to former NIU back Garrett Wolfe and for good reason. To his credit, he didn't have the offensive lines that Wolfe had behind him.

NIU will face a pretty moderate schedule this season. The key, as always, will be the running game. Biases aside one of Justin Anderson, Me'co Brown or Chad Spann need to establish themselves as the No. 1 back. Harnish will wear down quickly throughout his career if he has to lead the Huskies rushing and passing attacks. Jason Onyebuagu and Eddie Adamski will anchor the line with Trevor Olson to do their part. Here's how I see NIU's season going:

@ Wisconsin - L

Vs. Western Illinois - W

@ Purdue - L

Vs. Idaho -W

Vs. Western Michigan (Homecoming) - L

@ Toledo - W

@ Miami-OH - W

Vs. Akron -W

Vs. Eastern Michigan - W

Vs. Ball State - W

@ Ohio - L

@ Central Michigan - L

So total record at 7-5, which should land NIU in another bowl game providing the MAC East doesn't show up this season. I think the Purdue, Akron and Ohio games could really go either way, so 9-3 tops, 5-7 at worst for the Huskies in 2009. I don't see them having the secondary or pass rush to get to Hiller and LeFevour. Remember, last year versus CMU LeFevour was still hurt. While Ball State is a sleeper they're not as good and it should be a close game but I don't see NIU losing at home, not if they go in on a four game streak.

Poll

Who is the best quarterback in the MAC?

Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)

28 votes

Tim Hiller (Western Michigan)

9 votes

Tyler Sheehan (Bowling Green)

0 votes

Andy Schmitt (Eastern Michigan)

1 votes

Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois)

7 votes

Other

2 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed

Experience and Quarterback Growth - Is There Hope?

irish1611 — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 15:26:04 -0000

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"The big question revolving around the C.U. offense is what type of play the Buffaloes will get from the quarterback position: if the team gets good – not spectacular, just good – play and consistency, the offense will be much, much better." -The New York Times Quad Blog

"I don't know about their quarterbacking combination with Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen." -Tim Griffin of ESPN

"BIGGEST PROBLEM: The Buffs have to get better play from their quarterback. Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, has been Colorado's starter the past two seasons, but the job is hardly his entering fall camp." - Rivals.com

Those are just three examples of the many of preseason reviews about the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009. It usually goes something like this: "If the Buffs can get any sort of production out of their quarterback play (Cody Hawkins), then they should be much improved in 2009." It's pretty short and simple. There have been just as many deficiencies at other positions but that is the nature of the beast when you are the quarterback, you get too much credit when you win and too much of the blame when you lose.

The big question is, is there any reason to think Cody Hawkins' numbers will improve enough to really give the Buffs a chance to get to 8+ wins? The intangible that most Buffs' fans are hinging their hope on for improvement in 2009 is the team looks to be healthier at all offensive positions compared to the past couple of seasons and Cody Hawkins is now a junior, an upperclassman. Unfortunately, we can't see into the future but I thought why not look at what experience does for quarterbacks between their junior and sophomore seasons. Last year, 21 quarterbacks in the NCAA were juniors who played fully as sophomores in 2007. Their were many high profile quarterbacks like Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow.

Combining the quarterback stats for all 21 quarterbacks in 2008 compared to the 2007 numbers, every single category showed improvement (see chart below). Some statistics didn't show huge improvement but a few things caught my eye. Completion percentage jumped a full 2.1%. That is a big difference in a year. Wins also increased, although not large like the completion percentage but significant enough. The key is all statistics showed improvement on average, nothing mind blowing but yes, we should expect improvement with experience from Cody Hawkins.

Much more after the jump...

Yr	Year	Avg Wins	Avg Loss	Att/G	Comp/G	Comp%	Yards/G	Yards/Att	Int/G	TD/G
JR	2008	7.43	5.29	31.43	19.81	63.00%	235.36	7.49	0.76	1.75
SO	2007	7.14	5.57	31.78	19.35	60.90%	230.06	7.24	0.87	1.66
Variance		0.29	-0.29	-0.35	0.46	2.1%	5.3	0.25	-0.11	0.09
Hawkins Sophomore Stats
SO	2008	5	7	26.66	15.25	57.20%	157.67	5.91	0.83	1.42
Variance*		-2.14	1.43	-5.12	-4.1	-0.037	-72.39	-1.33	-0.04	-0.24
*Variance calculated from above on all QB's in 2007 who were sophomores

With all of that being said, Cody still has a long way to go to even sniff the numbers of last year's juniors compared to their sophomore numbers. Cody, as you can see above, was a full 3.7% behind the 21 QB's sophomore numbers in 2007 and a whopping 72 yards/game. Juniors do improve but they improve over a much better sophomore base than Cody has going into 2009. Blame it on the lack of playmakers around him, injuries, youth whatever you want but those are the facts. When you think about 72 yards a game over a 12 game season, hopefully a 13 game season, you are flirting with a 1,000 yard difference behind the average sophomore quarterback from 2007.

If you look at a sampling of the quarterbacks below, the best of the list and most of the top quarterbacks last year, every one had a winning record as a junior except Josh Freeman who went 5 - 7 as a sophomore and did not produce a winning season as a junior.

Every quarterback improved their completion percentage from their sophomore to junior seasons excluding Josh Freeman and Tim Tebow. This is the big statistic in my mind. Look at the Colt McCoy and Zac Robinson, last year's increased completion percentage brought them into the top echelon of quarterbacks from their sophomore years. Both McCoy and Robinson were seen as decent quarterbacks, probably both mid level in the Big 12 as sophomores but they became more efficient and stronger in every part of their game which produced more wins on the field. That is what the Buffs need from Cody in 2009. The 57.2% is the number that must improve and once that happens, you will see wins on the field...obvious, I know, but it's the key to the whole deal.

Name	Yr	W	L	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yds/Att	TD	Int	Rating	Yds/G
Colt McCoy	JR	12	1	13	433	332	76.7	3,859	8.9	34	8	173.7	296.8
Colt McCoy	SO	10	3	13	424	276	65.1	3,303	7.8	22	18	139.2	254.1

Josh Freeman	JR	5	7	12	382	224	58.6	2,945	7.7	20	8	136.5	245.4
Josh Freeman	SO	5	7	12	499	316	63.3	3,353	6.7	18	11	127.3	279.4

Matthew Stafford	JR	10	3	13	383	235	61.4	3,459	9.0	25	10	153.5	266.1
Matthew Stafford	SO	11	2	13	348	194	55.7	2,523	7.3	19	10	128.9	194.1

Max Hall	JR	10	3	13	477	330	69.2	3,957	8.3	35	14	157.2	304.4
Max Hall	SO	11	2	13	496	298	60.1	3,848	7.8	26	12	137.7	296.0

Nate Davis	JR	12	2	14	401	258	64.3	3,591	9.0	26	8	157.0	256.5
Nate Davis	SO	7	6	13	478	270	56.5	3,667	7.7	30	6	139.1	282.1

Tim Tebow	JR	13	1	14	298	192	64.4	2,746	9.2	30	4	172.4	196.1
Tim Tebow	SO	9	4	13	350	234	66.9	3,286	9.4	32	6	172.5	252.8

Todd Reesing	JR	8	5	13	495	329	66.5	3,880	7.8	32	13	148.4	298.5
Todd Reesing	SO	12	1	13	445	275	61.8	3,476	7.8	33	7	148.7	267.4

Zac Robinson	JR	9	4	13	314	204	65.0	3,064	9.8	25	10	166.8	235.7
Zac Robinson	SO	7	6	12	316	191	60.4	2,666	8.4	22	9	148.6	222.2

Jared Zabransky of the Boise St. Broncos was the last Dan Hawkins' quarterback who started as both a sophomore and junior. It is a perfect example of the relationship between completion percentage and every other statistic including the wins and losses of the team. As a junior, Zabransky's Boise State team played a much tougher schedule with Georgia, Oregon State and Boston College (all losses) but the numbers show what happens when a completion percentage dips.

Name	Yr	W	L	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yds/Att	Int	TD	Rating	Att/G	Yds/G
Jared Zabransky	JR	9	4	342	202	59	2,562	7.5	16	18	130	26.3	197.1
Jared Zabransky	SO	11	1	327	206	63	2,927	9	12	16	147	27.3	243.9

Fortunately for the Buffs in 2009, the schedule is more manageable and should get the starting quarterback off on a much better foot than 2008.

I am sure Eric Kiesau knows he must put in a game plan that features Hawkins' strengths: pre-snap reads, quick passing, a very progression based offense that is based on timing and that internal clock so important to a quarterback's success. Such an offense will allow Hawkins to use his cerebral knack for the game rather than forcing him to make plays with his feet and improvisation, something that is inherent when moving from the spread to a pro-style offense. Another key, in my book and an instant way to improve completion percentage, is the utilization of the running backs and tight ends in the passing game. The tight ends are deep and Darrell Scott's pass catching ability is a strong point as is fellow running back, Brian Lockridge. Nothing keeps a defense from being aggressive with their linebackers than getting the ball quickly to the backs in the flats and tight ends in the intermediate lanes. Finally, few things are better for a quarterback than a healthy running game with the ability to work the play action. If the Buffs' offensive line and running backs can establish dominance on the ground, Cody Hawkins will have his best year by far as the Colorado Buffaloes' quarterback. He has the potential to get to that 60% - 62% completion percentage with all of these very achievable factors coming into play.

I do have to say I am excited for this year, the pivotalness of it. Not sure if that is a word but everyone knows they need to perform, be it Cody Hawkins or Eric Kiesau or Dan Hawkins or Mike Bohn, the "organization" needs to win. One thing is for sure, I will personally be rooting heavily for Cody Hawkins (and Darrell Scott) to succeed this year (of course I root for all the Buffs but you know what I mean). I think it would be one great story for the program if Hawkins can have one of those great turn around years, have the last laugh against many naysayers and let's face it, this team needs a face. With all due respect to LB Jeff Smart, when Tim Griffin names Smart the player you cannot afford to lose in 2009, your team needs a face, someone that resonates with the national mind.

Here's to hoping the Buffs' perceived playmakers make the plays in 2009.

Football Outside of the Big Ten - The MAC

Bama Hawkeye — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 03:59:15 -0000

I'm still not used to the new logo.

From time to time, it's important to look outside the Big Ten and remind ourselves that there is football being played by other teams in other conferences. The Rivalry, Esq. continues its look at those other conferences with a glance at the Big Ten's little brother: the Mid-American Conference. Little brother seems to manage at least one upset over the Big Ten each year (and FOUR last year). Whose number will be up in 2009?

1) 2008 Recap

a. Who Won the League?

The Buffalo Bulls won the Eastern Division with a 5-3 record. The Ball State Cardinals won the Western Division, going an unblemished 12-0 (8-0). The Bulls ended Ball State's unbeaten season with a 42-24 victory in the MAC Championship game.

b. Games of Note

Obviously, Buffalo ending Ball State's unbeaten season was huge. It also put the capstone on the incredible building job that Turner Gill performed (can't call it re-building if it was never built to begin with, can you?). Buffalo was one of the three worst teams of the first half of the decade. To win the league and go bowling was an accomplishment of monumental proportions.

Ball State also played in a great Wednesday night game to conclude their season. The Cardinals managed a 31-24 victory over CMU in the snow. That game clinched the Cardinals division title.

The best of the bad weather games didn't involve snow, but rain. On September 6, 2008, UConn visited Philadelphia to face off against Temple. A driving rain started about 10 minutes before kickoff and continued for the next four hours. The game was ugly. The game was beautiful. It's all in the eyes of the beholder. The Huskies won 12-9 in overtime.

c. Games against the Big Ten

Date	MAC Team	Score	Big Ten Team	Score	Location
August 30, 2008	Northern Illinois	27	Minnesota	31	Minneapolis, MN
August 30, 2008	Akron	17	Wisconsin	38	Madison, WI
September 6, 2008	Miami (OH)	6	Michigan	16	Ann Arbor, MI
September 6, 2008	Ohio	14	Ohio State	26	Columbus, OH
September 6, 2008	Eastern MIchigan	10	Michigan State	42	East Lansing, MI
September 6, 2008	Bowling Green	17	Minnesota	42	Bowling Green, OH
September 20, 2008	Temple	3	Penn State	45	State College, PA
September 20, 2008	Ohio	8	Northwestern	16	Evanston, IL
September 20, 2008	Central Michigan	25	Purdue	32	West Lafayette, IN
September 20, 2008	Ball State	42	Indiana	20	Bloomington, IN
October 11, 2008	Toledo	13	Michigan	10	Ann Arbor, MI
November 1, 2008	Central Michigan	37	Indiana	34	Bloomington, IN
November 8, 2008	Western MIchigan	23	Illinois	17	Detroit, MI

This was a relatively down year for the MAC as September ended. In ten games, the conference had managed only one victory against the Big Ten - and that was against the team that was obviously the worst in the league. And then, the Toledo Rockets did something that no MAC team had ever - EVER - done before. They knocked off Michigan. The two wins over Indiana were nice. And Western MIchigan's victory at Ford Field over the Illini was a nice win (one that would end up sending Northern Illinois to a bowl game instead of Illinois), but Michigan. MICHIGAN. Yes, MICHIGAN! That was the game that made for a memorable MAC season.

We can confirm that these are the ugliest blue and gold uniforms to ever win at the Big House.

d. Bowl Games

The good news was that the MAC sent five teams to bowl games. The good news ends there. In order...

Central Michigan lost in the Motor City Bowl to Florida Atlantic. Northern Illinois lost in the Independence Bowl to Louisiana Tech. Western Michigan lost in the Texas Bowl to Rice. Buffalo lost in the International Bowl to UConn. Ball State lost in the GMAC Bowl to Tulsa. The worst part for the league was that the two teams in the MAC Championship Game managed to lose their Bowls by a combined count of 83-33.

At least you got to see Shreveport, men.

2) 2009 Preview

a. Games of Note

Obviously, many of the games of note for the MAC will be against the Big Ten. Those games are listed below. Here are a half dozen games that the MAC teams could win and get some nice things said about the league. If it's a good year for the league, they beat Troy and two other teams. An average year would mean Troy and one BCS team. A bad year would be crapping out on all six contests.

Date	MAC Team	Opponent	Location
September 3, 2009	Bowling Green	Troy	Bowling Green, OH
September 5, 2009	Miami (OH)	Kentucky	Cincinnati, OH
September 11, 2009	Toledo	Colorado	Toledo, OH
September 12, 2009	Buffalo	Pittsburgh	Buffalo, NY
September 19, 2009	Kent State	Iowa State	Kent, OH
September 26, 2009	Bowling Green	Boise State	Bowling Green, OH

The Miami (OH)/Kentucky matchup is fascinating. If it was a basketball game, the 'Cats would travel enough people to sell out the football stadium. Because it's a football game, Kentucky might travel enough folks to sell out the basketball arena.

b. Games Against the Big Ten

Date	MAC Team	Big Ten Team	Location
September 5, 2009	Akron	Penn State	State College, PA
September 5, 2009	Northern Illinois	Wisconsin	Madison, WI
September 5, 2009	Toledo	Purdue	West Lafayette, IN
September 5, 2009	Western Michigan	Michigan	Ann Arbor, MI
September 12, 2009	Central Michigan	Michigan State	East Lansing, MI
September 12, 2009	Eastern Michigan	Northwestern	Evanston, IL
September 12, 2009	Western Michigan	Indiana	Bloomington, IN
September 19, 2009	Akron	Indiana	Akron, OH
September 19, 2009	Temple	Penn State	State College, PA
September 19, 2009	Toledo	Ohio State	Cleveland, OH
September 19, 2009	Eastern Michigan	Michigan	Ann Arbor, MI
September 19, 2009	Northern Illinois	Purdue	West Lafayette, IN
October 10, 2009	Miami (OH)	Northwestern	Evanston, IL
November 7, 2009	Western MIchigan	Michigan State	East Lansing, MI

Only one true home game for the MAC, but it does make Akron's game against Indiana a distinct possibility for a victory. While it may be 25 miles closer to Cleveland, I somehow feel Toledo will be outnumbered in the stands at the Browns' Field.

c. Bowl Affiliations

While the MAC keeps the same three bowl affiliations for 2009, there is one change. The GMAC Bowl will no longer pit a MAC team against a member of Conference USA. Instead, it will be a showdown against the 9th ACC Selection. This is a win for both conferences. The MAC gets a shot at a bigger scalp, and an ACC team travels to Mobile instead of Boise.

3) 2009 Projections

a. Who will win the League?

For the second straight year, the balance of power in the league will tip west. I don't see Ball State repeating as division champion - I think that the losses of Coach Brady Hoke and QB Nate Davis will prevent that from happening. I see the Western Division decided by the October 17 matchup, Central Michigan @ Western Michigan. It says here that the Chippewas walk out of Kalamazoo with a win. The CMU offense should be strong, with Dan LeFevour, the wide receiver corps, and three of the linemen returning. If the defense can match last year's level, the team looks ready to go.

Out east, Buffalo returns enough from their championship squad (including shockingly, Coach Turner Gill) to be declared the pre-season favorite. Frankly, I don't see the Bulls repeating. I declare the East wide open, and think that a 6-2 or 5-3 team will win the division. I like Kent State as a potential sleeper, but I'm picking Temple. Seriously, did I just write that? Sure, why not? Al Golden has the team pointed in the right direction, and if Buffalo can win the crown, why not the Owls?

In the end, though, the west will best the East.

b. Any Wins Against the Big Ten?

Probably. The MAC has won games against the Big Ten in 10 of the last 15 seasons. They've beaten bad Big Ten teams (like last year's multiple wins over Indiana); they've beaten mediocre Big Ten Teams (like Western Michigan's win over the 2007 Hawkeyes that kept Iowa from bowling); they've beaten good Big Ten teams (like Miami being the only team to beat the 1995 Northwestern Wildcats during the regular season).

If you're looking to pick games for this year, I'd look to Indiana again. I bet they drop one of their two MAC matchups.

c. Who Goes Bowling?

The MAC has slid extra teams into bowl games over the past couple of seasons, and I'm guessing that they do it again. I'll guess that Central Michigan stays in Detroit to play a Big Ten team. I can see Temple going to the International Bowl. I'll take Western Michigan traveling to Mobile for the GMAC. And let's guess that Kent State slips into some bowl that can't fill it's assigned slot.

d. Any MNC Hopes?

No. If someone can run the table, they'll have a shot at a BCS Bowl, but even that will take a perfect storm.

e. The Rivalry Notes

This will be a question posed to one of the site's founders that relates the conference at hand with the Big Ten. This week, Graham Filler does the honor.

Michigan lost to a MAC school for the first time ever last year. It sucks, doesn't it? If you could go back in time and give the 2008 Wolverines one extra win, would you prefer it be against Notre Dame or Toledo (I'm not asking Ohio State - that's too easy)?

Notre Dame. No question. 3 main reasons: A win over Notre Dame (considering we beat Wisconsin), makes us 3-1 at the start of the year and would have given some hope, no matter how fleeting that hope was. Our 2008 record wasn't going to be great anyways, we might as well have saved some face by beating hated Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen's hair. The worst part of 2008 is this: We lost our 4 most important games: ND, MSU, OSU, PSU all by double digits. Not only are those L's, those are "turn the game off in the 3rd quarter" losses...sigh.

So losing the ability to say "Michigan has never lost to a MAC school" didn't mean anything?

You know that patented Michigan arrogance? Arrogance doesn't usually pay attention to what the scrubs are doing. Losing to Toledo simply reinforced the fact that 2008 didn't really "count"...I'm sure the snobbiest of the snobby UM fans loved hating on MAC people for "trying hard" but never succeeding...but the rest of us kind of accepted that 2008 was an aberration and would like to get back to competing against our rivals, something we didn't do in '08.

Four Star Quarterbacks, Success, Failure, and What Michigan Football can Expect out of Tate Forcier

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

As a general rule, highly rated quarterback recruits are the crown jewel of any school's recruiting class. Sure you can bring in a #1 Linebacker or a #1 Offensive Tackle, but those guys don't score points and their faces aren't plastered all over ABC or CBS every fall Saturday. Offenses simply don't work without an able bodied/minded signal caller under center.

But high school kids rarely turn out to be the person we thought they'd be coming out of high school. While Dr. Saturday has pointed out on numerous occasions (link no longer available) that a 5* player is far more likely than a 4* or 3* player to make the NFL, for some reason a 5* is far more likely to get himself arrested than a 4* or 3* (from the 2005 class at least). You get your five star flame outs (Ryan Perrilloux) far more often than your #1DC's like Matt Stafford, and you're just as likely to be starting a three star quarterback that you recruited as "insurance" than your four/five star savior.

For Michigan, this is not welcome news. Since the departure of five star rated Chad Henne, Michigan has gone from five star rated Ryan Mallett to no star rated Nick Sheridan to four star rated Steven Threet, back to Sheridan, then to two star Justin Feagin, to Threet, to Sheridan, and now, finally, to four star rated Tate Forcier. Looking at the preceding list, it's easy to disillusioned by the rankings process. Mallett transferred, Threet transferred (again), Sheridan was basically useless, and Feagin is being switched to receiver. As a result, Michigan will be starting a first year quarterback for the second straight year.

Despite Michigan's string of bad luck under center last year, it has failed to temper the enthusiasm of the Wolverine faithful when talking about Tate Forcier's first snaps. While (thankfully) this enthusiasm hasn't gone all Beano Cook, it is palpable when you talk to a Michigan fan. And to his credit, Forcier has done something to stoke that fire. Four passing touchdowns and one running touchdown in your spring game, your first anything against college competition, will get people excited.

Oddly, in watching that video the first thing that jumps out at me is not, OMG Savior!, it's "our defense is going to be baaaaaaaaaaad." But I digress. Watching this video is incredibly reassuring for any Michigan fan who had to sit through or pour over bad video of last year's spring practice. Combined, IIRC, Threet and Sheridan combined for 6 turnovers and no touchdowns via the air in 2008. And that performance was turned in against what proved to be the worst Michigan defense in Michigan history. I'm just saying.

So it's kind of hard to truly judge what we can expect out of Forcier against live competition, you know, the kind that will actually try to tackle him. Last year's quarterback play set the bar very low. But, Forcier seems to have the unique abilities required to run Rodriguez system. Tate showed the ability to throw on the run. Go deep. Scramble out of a sack. Not spike himself. These are good things.

Last year Michigan quarterbacks combined to go an abysmal 165/338 for 1718 yards, 11TD/12INT and a miserable combined QB rating of 95.2. Nick Sheridan's numbers alone make you cringe, a QB rating of 81.1 and a 2/5 TD/INT ratio despite starting a handful of games. If you just threw up a little in your mouth, you're not alone. Say what you want about changing systems, these guys were not and are not good quarterbacks in any system with numbers like that. Last year Forcier's numbers look like a shiny beacon in comparison. 208/326 for 3424 yards, 23/15 TD/INT ratio, 783 yards rushing on 92 attempts, and 12 rushing TDs. But lets break this down a bit.

For context on the competition, Forcier's High School, Scripps Ranch, is a Division II South school in California. Scripps is in the middle tier high school division for California schools with enrollment between 2400 and 1100 kids. The bigger Division I schools have enrollment from 2400 and up [some almost reaching 5000 enrollment]. Scripps is one of the larger Division II schools with enrollment around 2100. So he definitely facing decent competition, he's just not facing a Long Beach Poly kind of talent pool (4600+ kids).

Now, onto the numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the 2 to 1 TD/INT ratio in 2008. Forcier, if you look at his numbers, had his best season as a HS junior where he was 21/5 TD/INT. But that's two years ago, with different personnel. Last year in 12 games, Forcier had just three games without an INT, and threw 2 picks or more in five games. Tate's playoff numbers were a mixed bag, throwing for over 300 yards in one game, but tossing a combined 5 picks in both play off games he played in. The glass half empty kind of person can take that as Tate wilting under pressure.

But the reality is that's far from the case. Scripps was a good, but not great team last year going 8-4. Their second round bow-out from the DII playoffs was against 12-0-1 Oceanside, the defending state champs, who won their fifth consecutive Division II section title in 2008. Forcier scored both TDs in the loss for Scripps, and a look at the boxscore shows there's not a lot you can do when you give up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Looking at the results, you'll note a couple of games where Scripps gave up 40+ points, including 70(!) to the eventual state champs, Cathedral. FWIW, Forcier was 21/36 for 295 yards, 4TDs and 1INT in the Cathedral game.

What all this means is Michigan is getting a kid who has taken his lumps, knows what it's like to get planted, and has played well against higher levels of competition. Is he the Rich Rod savior we've been hoping for? Chances are we're not going to know for a while. After the jump you'll find the Rivals rankings for every quarterback receiving four stars or higher since 2005, and a few three stars of note. Of this group, over five years, you're only going to find five or six quarterbacks that jump off the page at you. Three of those page jumpers are: Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Surprisingly, Bradford and McCoy were three star recruits.

If it seems like things are a little off moving towards 2005, you're right. In '05 Rivals handed out only thirteen four star plus ratings to quarterbacks. In 2009, Rivals handed out twenty five four star plus ratings, nearly double the 2005 amount. In my opinion, this might have something to do with the precipitous drop in production from 4* plus players. When you're handing out high ratings like candy, eventually you degrade the overall effect of that rating. It also explains why I'm nervous about anointing a four star quarterback, even a good one, as a program savior or more modestly as an offensive savior.

So what do these numbers mean for Michigan and Tate? It means we should all cool our jets a tad. Given the number of four and five star flameouts over the last five years, a four star QB is statistically more likely to be a bust than a success. Further, regardless of pedigree, even the best of the best get hammered in year one. Everyone remembers the lumps Chad Henne took as a first year starter, the bad throws, the bailouts by Braylon. And Chad was one of the highest ranked QB recruits in the country at the time. Sam Bradford's been a starter since day one but he got beaten down fairly regularly too. What helped Braford, and what is a major question mark for Forcier, is Bradford's OU defense was AWESOME that year and Bradford often had the opportunity to fix things when he messed up.

Tate's in that middle ground between OMG SHIRTLESS and good, solid prospect. On the negative side, he's shorter than we'd like. He's got good, but not great arm strength. He's shown a propensity, at least at the High School level to throw some picks. On the positive, he has shown great escapability. Great instincts. Good decision making. Has a resume jam packed with awards and MVPS. And an arm that is more than capable of delivering the ball down field and into tight pockets mid field. But all this is conjecture before he plays a single game. So before we all start bringing offerings to his temple, let's allow the kid to show us what he can do in a real game environment.

But here's where the realistic fan in me comes out; it's really hard not to get excited about what he's shown so far. On the basis of his high school career, spring performance, and Rodriguez offense, 2,300 passing yards, 700 rushing yards, 15/9 TD/INT, 6 Rushing TD seems like a reasonable expectation. Juice Williams threw for 3,000 plus last year while running for 700 yards on a bad team. Having seen both players throw, I like Forcier considerably more than Williams as a passer. The rushing numbers will be comparable just because of the nature of the offense. Forcier's going to run the ball. It's a necessity in this offense. So he'll have every opportunity to gain rushing yards.

I may be underselling the passing a tad, but I don't know how well our receivers are going to play this year. They should be a solid group, but there were a lot of dropped and misplayed balls last year. If the receivers play better, I think Tate can get them the ball and my projection would go up from there.

Thoughts?

Here's the list of ranked quaterbacks from 2005 forward. Help me fill in the blanks on these guys if you can.

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2009

1Russell Shepard 5* LSU

2Tyrik Rollison 4* Auburn

3Eugene Smith 4* West Virginia

4Kevin Newsome 4* Penn State

5Tate Forcier 4* Michigan

6Cody Green 4* Nebraska

7Nathan Scheelhaase 4* Illinois

8Shavodrick Beaver 4* Tulsa

9Casey Pachall 4* TCU

10Jordan Reed 4* Florida

11Raymond Cotton 4* Ole Miss

Not included – 14 Denard Robinson 4* ATH - Michigan

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2009

1Matt Barkley 5* USC

2Garrett Gilbert 5* Texas

3Aaron Murray 4* Georgia

4Tajh Boyd 4* Clemson

5Bryn Renner 4* North Carolina

6Richard Brehaut 4* UCLA

7AJ McCarron 4* Alabama

8Tom Savage 4* Rutgers

9Andrew Maxwell 4* Michigan State

10Allan Bridgford 4* California

11Zach Mettenberger 4* Georgia

12Tyler Russell 4* Mississippi State

13Josh Nunes 4* Stanford

14Ryan Mossakowski 4* Kentucky

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2008

1Terrelle Pryor 5* OSU – You may have heard of him

2E.J. Manuel 4* Florida State

3MarQueis Gray 4* Minnesota - eligibility issues

4Robert Griffin 4* Baylor - Starter

5Matt Scott 4* Arizona

6Darron Thomas 4* Oregon - Bench

7Curt Phillips 4* Wisconsin

8B.J. Daniels 4* South Florida

9Kody Spano 3* Nebraska

10Jaybo Shaw 3* Georgia Tech - Included for awesome name

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2008

1Blaine Gabbert 5* Missouri - sorta starter

2Dayne Crist 5* Notre Dame - Bench

3Mike Glennon 4* N.C. State - starter

4Andrew Luck 4* Stanford

5Star Jackson 4* Alabama

6Landry Jones 4* Oklahoma

7Jacory Harris 4* Miami - Starter

8Jordan Jefferson 4* LSU

9Tyler Wilson 4* Arkansas

10Kyle Parker 4* Clemson

Rivals.com dual-threat quarterbacks 2007

1Tyrod Taylor 5* VTech – Starter

2Cameron Newton 5* Florida

3Aaron Corp 4* Southern Cal - Starter

4Stephen Garcia 4* South Carolina - washout?

5Willy Korn 4* Clemson - Starter

6Keith Nichol 4* Oklahoma - Bench/transfer?

7Chris Forcier 4* UCLA - Washout/transfer

8Kodi Burns 4*Auburn

9Josh Nesbitt 4* Georgia Tech - starter

10Logan Gray 4* Georgia

11Kellen Kiilsgaard 4* Stanford

12Bradley Starks 4* West Virginia

Rivals.com pro-style quarterbacks 2007

1Jimmy Clausen 5* Notre Dame - Starter

2Ryan Mallett 5* Michigan – Transfer/Starter

3John Brantley 4* Florida

4Mike Paulus 4* North Carolina

5Peter Lalich 4*Virginia

6Pat Bostick 4*Pittsburgh - Bench

7Jarrett Lee 4* LSU - sorta starter

8Robert Marve 4* Miami-FL - washout/transfer

9Steven Threet 4* Georgia Tech – Sadly, washout/Transfer x2.

10BJ Coleman 4* Tennessee - nothing

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2006

1Tim Tebow 5* Florida (Football Jesus)

2Demetrius Jones 4* Notre Dame Washout/Transfer – Now a linebacker at NIU

3Jevan Snead 4* Texas – Transfer/Starter at Ole Miss

4Jake Locker 4* Washington – Punching bag/Starter

5Jeremy Ricker 4* Maryland

6Austen Arnaud 4* Iowa State

7Garrett Green 4* Southern Cal - bench

8Sherrod Harris 4* Texas - bench

9Antonio Henton 4* Ohio State – Who?

11Rick Stanzi 3* Iowa – Starter/Manzi

14Adam Weber 3* Minnesota - Starter

15Nate Davis 3* Ball State - NFL

16Todd Reesing 3* Kansas – Marky M says Balla.

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2006

1Matthew Stafford 5* Georgia 1DC

2Mitch Mustain 5* Arkansas Washout

3Isiah Williams 4* Illinois Starter

4Josh Freeman 4* Kansas State Starter/washout/NFL?

5Pat Devlin 4* Penn State washout/transfer

6Kevin Riley 4* California sorta starter

7Neil Caudle 4* Auburn bench

8Chris Smelley 4* South Carolina sorta starter/washout

9Zach Frazer 4* Notre Dame washout

10Tyler Lyon 3* Arizona Bench

11Greg McElroy 3* Alabama – Starter (sorta)

12Sam Bradford 3* Oklahoma (Heisman winner)

Rivals.com Pro-style quarterbacks 2005

1Mark Sanchez 5* Southern Cal - NFL

2Jonathan Crompton 4* Tennessee - sorta starter

3Harrison Beck 4* Nebraska

4Derek Shaw 4* Arizona State

5Willie Tuitama 4* Arizona - One Time Stater/washout

6Rob Schoenhoft 4* Ohio State - bench

7Joe Cox 4* Georgia - bench?

8Arkelon Hall 3* Washington St.

9Domenic Natale 3* Michigan State

10Sean Canfield 3* Oregon State

11Bill Stull 3* Pittsburgh - starter

12Evan Sharpley 3* Notre Dame - Graduated

14Dustin Sherer 3* Wisconsin - sorta starter

15Colt McCoy 3* Texas - Starter Heisman Candidate

Rivals.com: Dual-threat quarterbacks 2005

1Ryan Perrilloux 5* LSU - Washout of spectacular fashion

2Jake Christensen 4* Iowa - Washout

3Ike Whitaker 4* Virginia Tech - Washout

4Josh Portis 4* Florida - ?

5Kyle Reed 4* California - ?

6Chase Daniel 4* Missouri - NFL?

7Jimmy Johns 3* Alabama - Proveyor of Fine Powdered Products

10Zac Robinson 3* Oklahoma State - Starter

The cure at quarterback: San Francisco

Mocking Dan — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 15:10:34 -0000

No other position in the NFL Draft carries more prestige than quarterback. Looking ahead to the 2010 draft, several teams could be looking at for a new signal caller. During the offseason, we're going to breakdown what teams could be going after a new quarterback following this season.

Who: San Francisco 49ers

Currently have: Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard, Nate Davis

Breakdown: Hill, the starter, is an eight-year veteran. He played in nine game for the 49ers in 2008, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,046 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Although Hill showed promise at times in 2008, he was very inconsistent. HIs arm isn't especially strong, but he's fairly accurate.

In games he's started, San Francisco is 7-3. In February of 2008, Hill signed a three-year contract with San Francisco.

Smith, a former No. 1 pick, is a bust. That's thanks in large part to injuries, simple lack of ability and continued change at offensive coordinator for the 49ers. In 2008, Smith was put on injured reserve in September due to a broken shoulder bone. He restructured his pricey rookie contract is with the team for two more seasons.

Huard, a former starter in Kansas City, should only be considered as a backup. Davis is a fifth-round rookie with a learning disability and weird release.

Why that's not good enough: San Francisco has a good nucleus coming together on offense. The team took Michael Crabtree 10th overall in the 2009 NFL Draft and has a sound running game with veteran Frank Gore and rookie Glen Coffee. The team's line is developing nicely with Joe Staley and David Baas on the left side.

Why waste that talent with an average, at best, quarterback in Hill? Neither Smith or Huard will ever get consideration as a starter in 2009, putting the onus squarely on Hill. He controls his own fate in San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers 2009 NFL Draft Grades

Fooch — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sakuma - AP

Browse more photos »

And so the 2009 NFL Draft is officially in our rear view mirror. Things got a bit heated at times (pretty much the entire time after the first round), but that's to be expected this time of year. Unless you're a Raiders fan, most teams' drafts leave some fans happy, some angry and some somewhere in between.

Naturally, the first thing we can do is grade the draft. I decided to wait a day so people could calm down and take a second look at the returns. Some of you will still be angry, but at least you've had a chance to sleep on it. Also, as you can see from the poll, we're including undrafted free agents in this group. While not part of the "draft class," they are a part of the San Francisco 49ers rookie class of 2009. Maybe they get lucky with some of them, maybe not. But we're including them anyways. On to the grades. A grade for the draft as a whole is at the end. And no pluses or minuses here. Just solid grades.

Michael Crabtree, WR - Grade: A
I realize the luck/Al Davis stupidity involved here. But sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And in this case, the 49ers were exceptionally lucky. Crabtree was pretty close to #1 on my list of all players in the draft, and definitely #1 on the guys I wanted who I thought miiiiight slip to the 49ers. He's a gifted athlete who could be the 49ers #1 receiver before too long.

Obviously most any pick could be a bust, but there was simply no way the 49ers could pass up when Crabtree was dangled before them at #10. I think Michael Oher will end up having a very solid career in the NFL. Nonetheless, when it comes to what he brings to the table, he is no Michael Crabtree. Wide receiver was not a great need for the 49ers, but I won't even discount the grade because of that. He's the man and that's all there is too it.

Glen Coffee, RB - Grade: C
I'm not a big Coffee drinker but i actually like Glen Coffee. Based on what I've read and what some Alabama fans have told me (included in the above post), Coffee will be a very solid option for the 49ers as a backup running back. I like that he knows he can stand to put on about 8-10 lbs. That would put him at 6-0 and close to 220lbs. More importantly he loves to hit things and you know Singletary loves that.

The reason I discount this grade so much is that I'd imagine they could have had him a little later, or even gone with some other RB options late in the draft. Running back was a need for this team, in spite of what others might think. However, there were some serious players available here that left me a bit confused. In the end I can live with this pick because I do think the 49ers front office has some clue of what's going on (no snickers please). However, it was one that had me a little bit befuddled.

Scott McKillop, ILB - Grade: B
Barrows was pretty much on the money with this as he was pointing to McKillop and another ILB at this spot a few minutes before hand. People were screaming for Jamon Meredith as he was slip-sliding like crazy. The selection of McKillop resulted in a lot of Agggggghhhhhs. However, on reflection, people seem to be recognizing the value of the pick.

McKillop will start off as a special teams guy and a backup to Takeo Spikes. Jeff Ulbrich is running out of gas and is probably nearing the end of his 49ers tenure. Ulbrich could never snatch that Ted position, so now we've got another youngster who will get a crack at it. This is mostly about the future as McKillop is a sure tackler who probably has a good chance to eventually take over Spikes's position. Not a homerun pick but one that I view as very sound.

After the jump we wrap up the remaining four picks and undrafted free agents and give our overview.

Nate Davis, QB - Grade: A
The fifth round was all about looking to the future. The compensatory pick was used on a guy who might very well be a QB of the future. I was trying to decide between an A and a B and I just can't lower the grade. Nate Davis does have Alex Smith tendencies that we certainly don't want to see. The dyslexia is something that can be overcome in the NFL, but obviously is something to keep in mind.

And yet, I couldn't look past the wild productivity in college and the fact that he slipped into the end of the fifth round. Even if he doesn't end up as the long term answer, I like this pick no matter what. Over the last couple years Davis actually was considered a potential high NFL prospect. His draft stock slipped due to the dyslexia and probably the grip on the football. As a fifth round pick, this could end up being one of the steals of the draft.

Bear Pascoe, TE - Grade: C
I'm sure somewhere on Niners Nation I'm on record as being a fan of a tight end named Bear. He just sounds like a tight end and I fully expect him to ably fill the role of Billy Bajema, with maybe even a little receiving game thrown in. Sounds great for a late pick and I realize we can't complain too much about a sixth round choice. Maybe I'm being a bit too hard on the pick.

However, I kind of look at the sixth round as an opportunity to roll the dice on either character guys, or injury issue guys. In the end I'm perfectly fine with Bear Pascoe here because I am firmly convinced he'll contribute in the regular season. And yet, part of me wishes the team had been a bit more aggressive here. It's probably wanting to have my cake and eat it too, but such is life.

Curtis Taylor, S - Grade: B
I like this pick, in spite of the Mark Roman comparisons that were going on. Taylor seems like the type of guy you roll the dice on late in the draft. There are legitimate and obvious flaws in his game. However, when you know the flows, it can often be easier to fix them.

As a seventh round pick there is obviously no pressure on him to win a starting job. And yet, I think he'll give Dashon Goldson a fair amount of competition in training camp. What I found most interesting in his scouting report is that he's too aggressive, and yet he's not physical enough. I suppose I can see how that's possible, but it still sounds like an oxymoron somehow.

Ricky Jean-Francois - Grade: B
Where Bear Pascoe is a football name, Ricky Jean-Francois (RJF from here on out) is decidedly NOT a football name. I expect to see him smoking long cigarettes and insulting opponents with a thick French accent. Actually, he makes me think of Jean Girard from Talladega Nights.

However, RJF, like Taylor, seems like an upside guy that is worth gambling on in the 7th round. At 6-2, 295lbs he's probably a bit undersized for a nose tackle. However, I'd like to think he could pack a little weight on to his frame and possibly make some noise in that position. He's a bit taller than both Sopoaga and Franklin, but I don't know how his frame compares for adding such weight.

Undrafted Free Agents - Grade: A
I've included these as one group because I think the context of all the signings makes a little more sense. Thus far, they include Pannel Egboh (DE), Kory Sheets (RB), Alex Boone (OT), Jahi Word-Daniels (CB) and Carlos Thomas (CB). None of these guys is a home run hitter, or they would have gone in the draft. Question marks abound, but again, that's why they landed on the street.

It's waaaay too early to tell what will happen, but with a few extra pounds on his frame, I think Egboh could push Ray McDonald for a roster spot. McDonald has struggled in making his mark and with Kentwan Balmer and Demetric Evans getting their chances, the squeeze coud be on for Ray.

Kory Sheets was solid at Purdue, but he just doesn't seem to have the potential bulk that Coffee brings to the table. Sheets could find himself in a battle for Thomas Clayton's old practice squad spot. Meanwhile, you've got Alex Boone, who's had a few run-ins with the law. McShay projected him as a late fifth round pick, factoring in those character issues. So, just maybe, the 49ers might have a solid backup option. He'll be battling the likes of Joe Toledo and Jacob Bender for a roster spot, or maybe just a practice squad spot.

OVERALL - Grade: B
I'll bet good money a lot of folks disagree with me on this. I mentioned it in Since79's FanPost, but to reiterate, this was a very odd draft. It just had a weird feel to it, from top to bottom, even beyond the 49ers picks. Guys like Jamon Meredith were plummeting, and Al Davis was drafting guys not even in draft guides.

Beyond the Crabtree pick, the 49ers seemed to be drafting like a team just filling some depth needs, or more precisely, a playoff team with not a ton of concerns. That's certainly not the case and that is why many folks were getting furious. Personally, I wanted a Jamon Meredith or Duke Robinson. I would have liked a Shonn Greene.

However, when you factor in the undrafted free agents, this 49ers rookie class is very intriguing. I gave Coffee a C but that was more because it was a 3rd round pick, instead of a 4th or 5th round pick. You like to hit on those and it seemed like a bit of a gamble. However, I do like Coffee's upside as a backup RB. I don't think he's a guaranteed bust, like others.

People were surprised the team did not grab any offensive linemen or outside linebackers. While I don't know any more than any of you, I do think this indicates the team is obviously fairly happy with what they already have in place. Boone will get a chance to win a roster spot, but for now he's pretty far down the depth chart behind Smith, Snyder and Sims.

Finally, there's The Trade. I was amazed at the divide over this. Some love it, some hate it and very few are in between. I'm a fan of the deal. It cost some potential talent this year, but I like getting that extra first rounder next year. It's all a crapshoot in the end, so why not increase your odds of avoiding crapping out? If I didn't like this trade I would have definitely seen the point of giving the 49ers a C or a D given that it involved a 2nd and 4th round pick. However, I think the trade should prove beneficial in the long run, thus I maintain the B.

There is much much more to be said about this draft. Numerous questions are raised by the moves made this weekend. As long as this post is, I simply can't fit it all in. Over the course of this week and beyond, we'll have plenty of thoughts about what I think again many people would agree was a rather bizarre weekend.

Poll

What grade would you give the 49ers 2009 draft (including UDFA)?

A

636 votes

B

1072 votes

C

294 votes

D

44 votes

F

29 votes

2075 votes | Poll has closed

49ers draft pick conference call: 5th round pick Nate Davis

Fooch — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 00:15:08 -0000

The 49ers used their fifth round compensatory selection on Nate Davis, the quarterback out of Ball State. It remains to be seen if he could be the long term answer at QB, but he is definitely an intriguing option. He won't be forced into an ugly Alex Smith situation, so we'll see what some bench time does for him.

RE: What’s your reaction to being picked by the 49ers?

“It’s just a great opportunity. I came out there to visit: it’s a beautiful place. Great coaches – Coach [Mike] Johnson. There’s just some great coaches. It’s a dream come true.”

RE: Did you have an idea when you came out here that you were on the radar and that you could be getting the call on the second day?

“I was thinking, sometimes I’ve heard before when you go it’s just to show people that you’re looking at them. I liked it a lot out there, loved the coaches but I always had a feeling that San Fran was the place for me.”

RE: What other teams did you visit?

“I visited the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers.”

RE: Why is San Francisco the place for you?

“Because Alex Smith is a great quarterback and Coach Johnson is a good quarterbacks coach, and I can learn great stuff from them.”

RE: What’s the difference between Nate Davis and Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez?

“Personally I don’t think there’s really anything different. I think the big difference is he went to Georgia and I went to Ball State. Sanchez went to USC, I went to Ball State. It’s a bigger school and unfortunately they had better competition but it all worked out. It doesn’t matter what round you get drafted in, you just go out there and show yourself.”

RE: During the season, you were rated pretty highly. Why do you think your stock fell a little bit on draft day?

“I really don’t know. I think it’s because I have a learning disability. It’s really…. I really don’t think I have a learning disability in football. I’ve just got to keep on going, keep on working hard and show San Fran what I can do.”

RE: Can you tell us about your disability?

“It’s in reading and writing.”

RE: Can you be more specific?

“Really, I really don’t know what kind of disability it is. I just know that it takes me a longer period of time to read and to write about it.”

RE: How long have you been aware of that?

“Since the seventh grade.”

RE: Is it a form of dyslexia?

“No, it is not.”

RE: Does it inhibit you from learning a playbook? Has that been a problem at Ball State?

“No, definitely not. I don’t think that in football I have a learning disability. It’s just during school.”

RE: What kind of consideration did you give to staying at Ball State for your senior season? Or do you pretty much feel like you’ve already come out and accomplished everything you can at Ball State?

“I think I accomplished everything I could at Ball State. I [inaudible] a bunch of seniors. I thought that was big. But I think I accomplished everything so it was time for me to move on.”

RE: You pretty much were shotgun all the time, right?

“Actually, I wasn’t shotgun the whole time. I was probably about 30%, 100% or all. But I like being under the center a lot.”

RE: As I recall seeing you every Thursday night on ESPN, wouldn’t you just grab the ball, throw it and not really care where the laces were?

“Yes. In high school, I was in the shotgun 99% of the time, a lot of three steps so essentially in the shotgun, we would just sit there and just catch and throw. So that’s how I started just doing it like that.”

RE: And your hands are big enough to where you don’t need the laces for extra grip?

“No sir.”

RE: Is this something you talked with Mike Johnson about when you got here?

“Yes he did talk to me about that. He said, ‘It’s not a problem as long as you get the job done.’”

RE: But when you’re under center, obviously, you have the laces?

“Yes. Definitely. I can throw with the laces. That’s no problem.”

RE: Do you prefer to throw with the laces?

“No I do not. I prefer to throw without the laces. But, it’s really – I can throw with the laces. It’s no problem.”

RE: Do you plan to be wearing gloves when you come out here to play and practice?

“I will have them, but it all depends if I feel comfortable wearing them. It’ll just – see how I feel throwing the ball.”

RE: Did you throw with gloves at the combine?

“No I did not.”

RE: And how did that feel?

“It felt good. I had a couple of bad throws, but that happens.”

RE: It seems like your play declined during the later part of the season. Do you think that accounted for where you were drafted?

“I don’t think so. Everybody has bad games, but I just had two bad games in a row. So I just think that the whole learning disability hurt me. I can’t do anything to fix that. That’s just what God gave me.”

RE: Were those two losses bad weather games?

“One was a bad weather game and one was the MAC Championship. Just had a bad game.”

RE: I’m a little confused here, you said you don’t have a learning disability in football, but you said those last two games were because of the learning disability. Which is it?

“Oh no no, I’m sorry. I thought you meant the weather. I thought you said the weather…No, I don’t think that – it wasn’t because of the learning disability, not at all. It’s just that – things were going through the team with our head coach leaving. I just don’t think we were all on the same page as a team.”

RE: At this point in time, there’s not clearly defined quarterback of the future with this team. What kind of opportunity do you see for yourself here and could you be the quarterback of the future?

“In my head, yes I do see myself like that. I’m just going out there, I just want to do everything I can to help the team. Even if I’ve got to be a practice player. All I want to do is just help the team.”

RE: When you came out of high school were you recruited much?

“No, not really. I wasn’t recruited much but I had a couple of offers. I had Indiana, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Ball State and Toledo. So I didn’t have that many.”

RE: Were all those offers to play quarterback?

“Only one wasn’t. One was West Virginia, which I already knew that they had Pat White. They offered me a full ride as an athlete. Well, I said, ‘Thank you, but I want to play quarterback.’”

RE: How did you feel about your pro day at Ball State when one team, the [Indianapolis] Colts showed up? What did that do for your self-esteem?

“It gave me motivation to keep on working hard. I know that a lot of these quarterbacks have a lot of these teams show up but what I look in my head is it takes one team to fall in love with me and I’m glad that [San Francisco] did.”

RE: What do you think that San Francisco wanted to get from the meeting with you a couple of weeks ago?

“I think they wanted to [know] about my learning disability. I think that I did good in the meetings with them and show them that the learning disability wasn’t a factor.”

RE: Did you have to go up on the board?

“Yes I did.”

RE: And that went alright?

“Yes, that went good.”

With the 171st pick of the NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select Nate Davis, QB, Ball State

Fooch — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:49:04 -0000

Well, the 49ers potentially have their QB of the future. Maybe they don't, but they've got a guy they can try and develop. Now I realize there are defensive needs and offensive line needs, but I like this pick. One thing it means is we probably shouldn't expect much time for Damon Huard in a 49ers uniform. He'll be a training camp QB and not much more.

And now, a Nate Davis scouting report:

Strengths: Outstanding arm strength...A smooth release...Nice accuracy...Great touch and timing...Anticipates well...Above average athleticism...Can throw on the run...Is able to make plays and buy time with his feet...Competitive...Good work ethic...Tough...Durable...Team leader.

Weaknesses: Has a learning disability...Does not have the ideal height that you look for...Questionable awareness...Mechanics need some work...Poor ball security...Accustomed to working out of the shotgun...Will gamble too much...An unconventional grip...Didn't face a lot of elite competition.

Some brief highlights after the jump.

49ers and Matthew Stafford make nice

Fooch — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 21:04:01 -0000

This was posted through Maiocco in the Golden Nuggets. GIl Brandt initially reported that Matthew Stafford would be visiting the 49ers today. Certainly a change after the drama of the psychologist issue. But does anybody really think Stafford would even drop to the 49ers? I keep hearing more stories stating the Lions will be grabbing Stafford #1.

It should be no surprise that the 49ers are kicking the tires on all the top QB prospects. It'd be more of a surprise if they just ignored them. Throw in a visit from Nate Davis last week, and there are plenty of QB options out there. We've got trade discussions going on in briandean's post this morning and if Stafford somehow dropped that far, why not make a trade?

Although we're not a Lions blog, I'm curious what people think about that #1 pick. What do the Lions do? It's an issue of some importance to 49ers fans because if they pass on a QB, it could cause a slide in that position. Maybe not a ton, but possible enough to impact the #10 pick.