Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:00:05 -0000

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)		Iowa St. (20)
	% Close = 35.5%
46.6%	Field Position %	53.4%
76.6%	Leverage %	67.5%

	TOTAL
64	Plays	77
37.04	EqPts	25.81
62.5%	Success Rate	45.5%
0.58	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.34
1.204	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.790

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
36	Plays	14
16.52	EqPts	2.94
52.8%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.46	PPP	0.21
0.987	S&P	0.567

	RUSHING
15.57	EqPts	4.46
65.2%	Success Rate	39.1%
0.68	PPP	0.19
1.329	S&P	0.585
2.90	Line Yards/carry	3.06

	PASSING
21.47	EqPts	21.34
61.0%	Success Rate	48.2%
0.52	PPP	0.40
1.133	S&P	0.877

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3%	Success Rate	46.2%
0.63	PPP	0.24
1.264	S&P	0.706

	PASSING DOWNS
60.0%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.41	PPP	0.52
1.008	S&P	0.963

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	2
6.39	Points Lost	6.06
1.82	Points Given	8.31
8.21	Total T/O Pts	14.37
+6.16	Turnover Pts Margin	-6.16

0.915	Q1 S&P	0.839
1.245	Q2 S&P	0.704
1.251	Q3 S&P	0.766
1.645	Q4 S&P	0.896

0.787	1st Down S&P	0.649
1.281	2nd Down S&P	1.024
2.265	3rd Down S&P	0.840

The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge. Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones. Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark. Good to see. We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

And now, a review of last week's "key players"...

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Despite a nice 38-yard run in the 3rd quarter, Robinson was a non-factor. He touched the ball 15 times and managed just a 27% success rate and 0.459 S&P. Mizzou was on him immediately every time he touched the ball.

WR RJ Sumrall

Six catches, 24 yards, 1.10 EqPts. Awful. The Carl Gettis Treatment strikes again.

I should mention, though, just how effective Iowa State's tight ends were in this game. Derrick Catlett and Collin Franklin combined for 8 catches and 8.08 EqPts in sustaining what was a pretty decent ISU passing attack, at least after the score was within a comfortable arm's length for Missouri.

LB Fred Garrin

Garrin had, by all means, a decent game, with 6.5 tackles and 1 TFL. But he was needed in the turnover game, and came up empty there. I also mentioned Leonard Johnson as the other potential turnover candidate, and he came through with a fumble recovery and an INT that was called back due to a roughing penalty. He was solid all game, but it obviously wasn't nearly enough.

P Mike Brandtner

The fact that Brandtner punted only once should have been an encouraging thing for ISU, but the two turnovers and three failed fourth-down conversions killed ISU.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

Professor Chaos returned to his "automatic on third downs" ways Saturday. Mizzou was iffy on first downs all night, but 8-for-10 on third downs will win you a lot of games, as will completing your first 16 passes of the night. Chase found a reliable target in Andrew Jones, and after struggling a bit without Chase Coffman against KSU, the Mizzou offense was clicking on all cylinders. That's the upside about injuries to key players--as long as they're not season-long, and as long as they don't cost you in big games (as Coffman's injury did in the Big 12 title game last year), they get other guys some big minutes...and when the injured guy comes back, you've got even more weapons at your disposal.

RB Derrick Washington

He didn't come close to the 20 touches I requested, but in only 13 touches, he managed 151 yards and 2 TDs and led Mizzou with 11.52 EqPts. Efficiency, explosiveness, et cetera. Aside from the fumble he almost lost, this was a darn near perfect game from D-Wash.

FS William Moore

BINGO. Keep calling Willy Mo out, and eventually he'll come through with a big game. Four tackles, some hard hitting...oh yeah, and his fourth career pick six, one that basically put the game out of reach midway through the second quarter.

P Jake Harry

Jake Harry? Who the hell is Jake Harry?

MU-ISU Summary

North Champions once again. To quote our esteemed coach, "That's awesome." In all, this has worked out pretty nicely for Mizzou. The North title was clinched pretty easily, nobody else got hurt, Chase Coffman has a bye week to get healthy, and in theory Mizzou should head into Arrowhead with a clear head and healthy bodies, ready to culminate Hate Week(s) with a comfortable victory over a to-date lesser team. That's awesome.

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)		Kansas (7)
	% Close = 66.7%
52.9%	Field Position %	47.1%
70.0%	Leverage %	68.9%

	TOTAL
70	Plays	74
29.90	EqPts	13.88
47.1%	Success Rate	40.5%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.19
0.899	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.593

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	37
22.58	EqPts	4.39
44.1%	Success Rate	37.8%
0.38	PPP	0.12
0.823	S&P	0.497

	RUSHING
12.25	EqPts	3.42
40.0%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.35	PPP	0.17
0.750	S&P	0.671
2.63	Line Yards/carry	3.02

	PASSING
17.65	EqPts	10.46
54.3%	Success Rate	37.0%
0.50	PPP	0.19
1.047	S&P	0.564

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
51.0%	Success Rate	39.2%
0.35	PPP	0.11
0.857	S&P	0.507

	PASSING DOWNS
38.1%	Success Rate	43.5%
0.62	PPP	0.35
0.997	S&P	0.784

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
1.84	Points Lost	3.12
2.29	Points Given	5.70
4.13	Total T/O Pts	8.82
+4.69	Turnover Pts Margin	-4.69

0.841	Q1 S&P	0.538
0.627	Q2 S&P	0.454
1.191	Q3 S&P	0.688
0.870	Q4 S&P	0.647

0.864	1st Down S&P	0.585
1.023	2nd Down S&P	0.679
0.789	3rd Down S&P	0.544

UT's offense really wasn't clicking during this game, third quarter aside. However, despite the limitations of a less-than-100% healthy Brian Orakpo, the Texas defense had KU disheveled and discombobulated all morning and afternoon. Dezmon Briscoe's acrobatic catch aside, KU had no semblance of a downfield threat against UT's speed, and it made the difference in the game.
And despite decent blocking up front, KU's RBs just didn't have enough speed to get by UT's front seven.
A 0.507 S&P is pretty bad on Passing Downs. That was KU's performance on Non-Passing Downs. That's horrendous. And it negates what was actually a decent performance by KU on Passing Downs (0.784).
Meanwhile, Texas continues to lead the country in Passing Downs success. For the season, they're actually averaging a higher S&P on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs. They're the only team in the country who can say that, though that disproportionality was one of the things that bit them in the behind against Texas Tech.

Nebraska (56)		K-State (28)
	% Close = 58.1%
86.4%	Field Position %	13.6%
78.2%	Leverage %	63.8%

	TOTAL
78	Plays	58
46.85	EqPts	14.73
57.7%	Success Rate	27.6%
0.60	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.25
1.178	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.530

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
56	Plays	23
36.65	EqPts	5.87
60.7%	Success Rate	21.7%
0.65	PPP	0.26
1.262	S&P	0.473

	RUSHING
31.29	EqPts	5.28
59.6%	Success Rate	32.1%
0.60	PPP	0.19
1.198	S&P	0.510
3.60	Line Yards/carry	2.94

	PASSING
15.56	EqPts	9.45
53.9%	Success Rate	23.3%
0.60	PPP	0.32
1.137	S&P	0.548

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
62.3%	Success Rate	27.0%
0.54	PPP	0.21
1.168	S&P	0.481

	PASSING DOWNS
41.2%	Success Rate	28.6%
0.80	PPP	0.33
1.213	S&P	0.616

	TURNOVERS
2	Number	1
6.56	Points Lost	1.23
7.99	Points Given	3.33
14.55	Total T/O Pts	4.56
-9.99	Turnover Pts Margin	+9.99

1.262	Q1 S&P	0.347
1.124	Q2 S&P	0.619
0.932	Q3 S&P	0.947
1.355	Q4 S&P	0.214

0.950	1st Down S&P	0.559
1.322	2nd Down S&P	0.472
1.250	3rd Down S&P	0.514

Nebraska is the winner of the Most Dominant Performance of the Week competition, though playing K-State should probably disqualify you from the contest at this point.
How did this game stay within two possessions for 58% of the time despite NU's complete domination? Try a pick six early and a kick return TD late.
The three-headed Nebraska rushing attack has picked up steam in recent weeks, albeit against less than stellar rush defenses (OU game aside). Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille and Marlon Lucky have all had their moments, and at this point I'm going to say that Helu is the #2 RB in the North next year (behind our man D-Wash, of course).
Know how I said KU's 0.507 S&P on Non-Passing Downs was horrible? KSU's was 0.481.
If Ron Prince wanted to give his team the best chance to win, he'd have to seriously think about a QB platoon between a grayshirt (Carson Coffman) and the guy who was picked by some to be a 2009 1st Round draft pick (Josh Freeman). Just sayin'.
Just think where this game could have been if KSU hadn't won the turnover battle by 10 points!

OSU (30)		Colorado (17)
	% Close = 82.4%
53.7%	Field Position %	46.3%
76.2%	Leverage %	57.5%

	TOTAL
63	Plays	73
29.04	EqPts	17.04
49.2%	Success Rate	34.3%
0.46	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.23
0.953	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.576

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
59	Plays	53
28.97	EqPts	9.02
52.5%	Success Rate	35.9%
0.49	PPP	0.17
1.016	S&P	0.529

	RUSHING
17.12	EqPts	8.19
42.5%	Success Rate	42.4%
0.43	PPP	0.25
0.853	S&P	0.672
3.12	Line Yards/carry	2.58

	PASSING
11.92	EqPts	8.85
60.9%	Success Rate	27.5%
0.52	PPP	0.22
1.127	S&P	0.496

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.9%	Success Rate	38.1%
0.40	PPP	0.23
0.875	S&P	0.607

	PASSING DOWNS
53.3%	Success Rate	29.0%
0.67	PPP	0.24
1.201	S&P	0.534

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
1.23	Points Lost	1.63
4.13	Points Given	2.38
5.36	Total T/O Pts	4.01
-1.35	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.35

0.944	Q1 S&P	0.438
1.219	Q2 S&P	0.661
1.429	Q3 S&P	0.653
0.497	Q4 S&P	0.501

1.111	1st Down S&P	0.499
0.641	2nd Down S&P	0.593
0.987	3rd Down S&P	0.280

Really a ho-hum game here. OSU was never threatened by CU's offense, and their own offense made plays when it had to...and yet OSU only won by 13. OSU's rushing performance was a little below standard for them, but overall the 'Pokes won just about every category.
As far as I can tell, one of the things that kept CU as close as they were was a near-even field position battle. OSU was content to run the ball (40 rushes, just 23 passes) and grind out the win, and CU was able to pin them just far enough back that every drive didn't end up in FG range.

ATM (21)		Baylor (41)
	% Close = 54.0%
35.3%	Field Position %	64.7%
78.4%	Leverage %	72.0%

	TOTAL
51	Plays	75
19.98	EqPts	33.80
45.1%	Success Rate	44.0%
0.39	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.45
0.843	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.891

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
26	Plays	42
7.83	EqPts	21.69
42.3%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.30	PPP	0.52
0.724	S&P	0.969

	RUSHING
4.69	EqPts	17.84
47.4%	Success Rate	42.3%
0.25	PPP	0.34
0.721	S&P	0.766
3.22	Line Yards/carry	2.43

	PASSING
15.29	EqPts	15.96
43.8%	Success Rate	47.8%
0.48	PPP	0.69
0.915	S&P	1.172

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
47.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.40	PPP	0.35
0.873	S&P	0.777

	PASSING DOWNS
36.4%	Success Rate	47.6%
0.37	PPP	0.71
0.732	S&P	1.184

	TURNOVERS
5	Number	0
11.65	Points Lost	0.00
11.18	Points Given	0.00
22.83	Total T/O Pts	0.00
-22.83	*Turnover Pts Margin*	+22.83

0.666	Q1 S&P	0.700
0.767	Q2 S&P	1.015
0.669	Q3 S&P	1.162
1.288	Q4 S&P	0.601

1.035	1st Down S&P	0.671
0.594	2nd Down S&P	0.776
0.462	3rd Down S&P	1.374

ATM is so lucky that the final score didn't end up much worse. And it was much worse...BU was up 41-7 when they took their foots of the gas in the fourth quarter. Repeat: Baylor was up 41-7. In a conference game.
Really, Baylor walked a fine line here--they were far from dominant in Non-Passing Downs situations...but they were as good as they've ever been on Passing Downs, and ATM's failure there doomed them.
Whereas Baylor got better on each progressive down, ATM got worse, and it forced them into situations with higher probabilities of turnovers.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

Chase Daniel (21.47 Passing EqPts, 1.133 S&P, 8-for-10 3rd-down conversions)

15 votes

Derrick Washington (11.52 total EqPts, 2 TDs)

20 votes

Jeremy Maclin (9.44 total EqPts, 111 return yards, 1 TD)

9 votes

William Moore (his long-awaited 4th career pick six)

3 votes

Castine Bridges (12.5 tackles, 2 pass breakups, a big Q1 fourth down stop)

17 votes

Carl Gettis (for giving RJ Sumrall the Carl Gettis Treatment...and registering an INT of his own)

5 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - R.J. Sumrall

Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Mizzou (52)

Iowa St. (20)

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Mizzou

MU-ISU Summary

Other Big 12 Games

Texas (35)

Kansas (7)

Nebraska (56)

K-State (28)

OSU(30)

Colorado (17)

ATM(21)

Baylor (41)