SB Nation - Sean Canfield

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 3

John Morgan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

In which Seattle signs Jason Campbell to outperform Matt Hasselbeck and maybe he does.

I hope Mike Holmgren signs with Cleveland. I have selfish interest, namely Seattle not re-signing Holmgren, but I have more noble interests as well. Cleveland has one of the youngest, most talented offensive lines in the NFL. It starts Joe Thomas at left tackle, Eric Steinbach at left guard and Alex Mack at center. Right guard Hank Fraley and right tackle John St. Clair are interchangeable organizational soldier types. It doesn't have great skill position talent, but that's where Holmgren shines. He finds scheme appropriate players that can excel behind a dominant offensive line. Holmgren is also an expert at developing young quarterbacks.

Why start with a tangent? In this scenario, Seattle ditches Matt Hasselbeck and signs free agent Jason Campbell. Tim Ruskell is out and his departure hints at a potential rebuild, but if Seattle can win some down the stretch, and especially if Seattle can win some down the stretch because of its Ruskell built defense, the Seahawks might adapt certain Ruskell ideals even without Ruskell.

Ruskell was risk adverse. He had a narrow definition of "his guy". His aversion to risk may have served him well, but his narrow definition did not. Consider Deon Butler. Ruskell traded into the third round to select Butler because Butler was "his guy". Butler dripped Ruskell: Four-year starter at a major conference powerhouse, undersized but fast, coachable, hard working and quietly productive. Ruskell conflated "his guy" with risk aversion and overpaid for a risky player. Despite his track record and accolades, Butler could bust because he is overmatched by NFL competition.

Ruskell spent big to get his guy, but his guy was never less risky than Juaquin Iglesias, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie or Johnny Knox - the six receivers selected after Butler. And only Iglesias has underperformed Butler. Ruskell projected his internal bias on the players he drafted. It rarely conflicted with his risk aversion, but when it did, it often spelled failure.

Campbell is a prime target for any risk adverse general manager. His connections to Auburn's unbeaten season might have spoken to Ruskell's personal bias, but his standing as a young, established NFL quarterback speaks to rational roster construction. Campbell has the tools of an NFL quarterback - arm strength, size, mobility - and those tools are NFL tested. He has adapted to multiple playbooks and played near league average football on some very poorly constructed offenses. As we've seen in Chicago and Denver, the quarterback may be the center and most essential part of any NFL offense, but it is not more important than the other ten men that take the field.

This Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Seattle trades or cuts Hasselbeck. It wishes him well, gives lip service to rebuilding and is satisfied to see him sign with Cleveland. Hasselbeck joins muscle milk buddy Brady Quinn and assumes the Trent Dilfer role.

Walter Jones retires.

Seattle cuts Patrick Kerney, Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace.

That gives the Seahawks money to burn. Seattle signs Campbell to a frontloaded contract with a third-year buyout clause. Campbell is playing through the last year of his rookie contract and though he's rich, he's not quarterback rich. Seattle buys maneuverability and Campbell's services by stacking his 2010 salary with zeroes.

Seattle could still be a player in free agency after signing Campbell. It will attempt to fill holes and free itself to draft best available talent throughout the draft.

Signing Campbell and cutting dead weight frees Seattle to make a big splash in the NFL draft. It has money to afford another early first round prospect and the picks to trade up. It could take a centerpiece player on defense like Ndamukong Suh. By releasing Hasselbeck and signing Campbell, the burden falls off the offense. Seattle buys itself time. If Campbell struggles in Seattle's still wrecked 2010 offense, he's young and can be released. Campbell has a bad reputation. He hasn't earned Seahawks fan loyalty and we are unlikely to experience the same kind of revulsion and outrage watching him battered to bones as we do watching Hasselbeck torn asunder.

Campbell is signed as a stopgap+. The Seahawks compliment the signing with a project quarterback selected sometime in 2010's epic quarterback draft. A looming correction to the onerous rookie pay scale is encouraging players to declare, and while the draft lacks a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning, it might be the deepest quarterback draft in modern history. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Sean Canfield, Ryan Mallett, Dan LeFevour, Pat Devlin and Tony Pike will all likely fall deep into the second day. Seattle will have an established starter for 2010 to test its system and offense, and a talented young quarterback developing behind the scenes.

How it works: Seattle successfully moves into the top of the draft and selects a once in a generation defensive talent. That helps push Seattle's cheap, young and talented, but by no means dominant, defense from potential to production. The team is not a contender again in 2010, but it's close.

Campbell outperforms Hasselbeck. He's younger and healthier and continues to play like a league average quarterback. Campbell could also breakout. Seattle is set for either possibility. It builds its offense towards the future by continuing Ruskell's habit of drafting late and mid-round offensive talent and seeing who shakes out. The major rebuild will wait until next offseason. 2010 is about seeing what they have and what they need, something a diminished Hasselbeck has made difficult to impossible this season.

The young defense provides excitement and gives the team a direction and identity. Campbell's arm opens the run game and Seattle executes the grind and smother attack Jim Mora and Greg Knapp seek. The team takes a flier on another young back (or two) and someone sticks, filling out a balanced and productive if unspectacular committee of backs. It's Ground Chuck all over again.

How it fails: Seattle cuts Hasselbeck but doesn't sign Campbell, or Seattle retains Hasselbeck and projects to have one of the worst offenses in football in 2010, or Seattle signs Campbell but Campbell performs no better than Hasselbeck and Seattle's young quarterback is prematurely forced into action. The meat of this is that Seattle does not spend enough on its offense and that offense again undermines the defense.

Contrarily, the defense never steps up. It continues to stifle the run but still cannot stop the pass. Seattle's defensive savior is a rookie and like Aaron Curry, more potential than player. The defense is average, but no better and as the offense putters towards the bottom of the league, the not-good-enough defense shoulders the consequences. Seattle changes the face of its failures but not its failures and what little can be salvaged from Ruskell's roster is older, more expensive and closer to free agency. Campbell is signed to stave off a full rebuild and does. He plays two seasons of league average football and is cleared when Seattle must clean house in 2012.

Ndamukong Suh at Colt McCoy - Game Thread

John Morgan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 01:03:21 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

"What a bunch of sucks."

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When Colt McCoy doesn't step into his throws, he lacks the arm strength to pull off Matt Ryan heroics. Ohio State achieved gut pressure and McCoy threw a fade away pick to Anderson Russell to end the half. That turned third and two on the Buckeye 15 into Buckeye ball; and three easy into zero. McCoy couldn't dodge the interior pressure and stumbled back before hucking it errant.

He has a compact snapping motion that allows him to step into a collapsing pocket and read and deliver. It generates good zip underneath and on mid- and middle-deep routes. Don't buy halfsmart criticisms of his arm strength. McCoy twice zipped the famous fifteen yard out against Ohio and with ease. He has good touch and accuracy on his deep passes, but less accuracy underneath than his career 70.6 completion percentage would suggest. Throwing short, he snaps his arm over his ear, and when he misses, it's high and low. He got ragged efforting a throw deep and just as his elbow flew out, so did the pass right and out of bounds.

That happens. McCoy is not an epic deep passer, but it's within his arsenal. He is the center and source of the Longhorn offense. Texas grinds it out with a multiple back rushing attack. It attacks through McCoy.

Colt is not tall or prototypical, and his rushing will need to become mobility and smart-scrambling in the pros, but he looks legitimate to me. He makes quick reads, quick decisions, senses pressure and is brave under fire. Whether you want McCoy or Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen or Sean Canfield or Other or Matt Hasselbeck, the more talented quarterbacks in the 2010 draft, the more valuable Seattle's three top-fifty picks. I think McCoy is a great fit for what Greg Knapp wants to do. My jaded, wounded Seahawks heart is even a little abuzz about the kid.

See what you think.

Is a Future Chiefs Draft Pick Playing Tonight?

Joel Thorman — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:39:11 -0000

A few weeks ago, we caught word that a Kansas City Chiefs scout made the trip to Oregon State for a game against Washington.

Tonight, Oregon State is playing a pretty big game against Oregon. Two top 20 teams.

Is a future Chiefs draft pick playing tonight?

For those of you without NFL Network, and unable to watch the NFL game on tonight, check out the Beavers on ESPN at 8:00 PM (CST).

AP user burntorangehorn summed a few up the names on Oregon State a few weeks ago. Keep an eye on a few of these players and let us know what you think.

Sean Canfield’s not a bad QB at this point. He’s done a decent job of piloting Oregon State this season. Not sure he’s a draft pick, but he’s worth scouting at least. Good size, okay arm strength, and he’s starting to make smarter decisions.

WR James Rodgers is tiny, as is his brother, RB Jacquizz. Both are electrifying players, but it’s hard to imagine either would jump early. I’m guessing James, who is a junior, will stay, but I guess KC would watch him as much as anyone else in case he does jump. Seems like a guy who’d go between picks #45 and 60, if I had to guess. ‘Quizz isn’t eligible for the 2010 draft.

Stephen Paea is a compact defensive tackle who came from a fairly good juco program. He plays with good leverage, getting nice and low to really drive interior OL where he wants to go. He could be a first-day pick, but I’d guess third round.

Keaton Kristick is a fairly good linebacker. He’s their leading tackler and has good size (6’3" 235lbs.), but I think he’s been having a few short-term injuries. Ah, looked it up just now, and it sounds like he had stingers in two straight games, but seems to be okay now. No idea where he’d go in the draft.

Thursday night NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:10:29 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

2 months ago: Oregon State quarterback Sean Canfield cocks his arm to throw a pass against Arizona State in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Tempe, Ariz. Oregon State won 28-17. (AP Photo/Paul Connors)

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Considering tonight's Oregon/Oregon State game is for a spot in the Rose Bowl, it might be good idea to tune in. And if you, you'll see a good bit of NFL talent on display.

• The best pro prospect on the field tonight could be Oregon senior T.J. Ward. Although he's only played in six games this year because of injuries, he's very effective. He has 53 tackles on the year and is equally adept against the run and pass. He plays a hybrid position for the Ducks, but projects as a strong safety at the next level.

• After Ward, the next best player is Ducks tight end Ed Dickson. The senior is a great athlete with a good vertical leap and solid speed. His production has been a little inconsistent this season, but he has 42 receptions for 551 yards and six touchdowns. He could be a second-round pick.

• Oregon junior middle linebacker Casey Matthews is the latest in the Matthews tree of football players. His brother, Clay Matthews, is having a good rookie year for the Packers. Casey isn't as great of an athlete, but he's productive and heady.

• After struggling early in his career, Oregon State quarterback Sean Canfield is having a banner season. In his senior campaign, Canfield is completing 70 percent of his passes for 2,797 yards, 19 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Canfield is a traditional pocket passer and puts a great touch on his passes. He's a left-handed thrower rising up draft boards. When the rankings are re-done here again, look for Canfield to be in the heart of the top 10 seniors.

• Beavers defensive tackle Stephen Paea might be slightly undersized at 6-foot-1 and 288 pounds, but he's very stout against the run. Paea is a fundamentally sound lineman with good agility and technique.

• Senior linebacker Keaton Kristick is a player to keep an eye on tonight. He's 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds and leads the Beavers in tackles with 80. He has seven for a loss to go with two interceptions and a sack. Kristick has some flaws -- he's not especially fluid in space, he struggles to get off blocks -- but he can be coached up at the next level.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 2

John Morgan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:26:51 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

John Carlson, Justin Forsett, Deon Butler and Max Unger form the existing core of offensive talent that Seattle can build around. Chris Spencer, Rob Sims and Sean Locklear could be retained too. If Seattle begins its move towards the offense of the future, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player will join this core in 2010.

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There is no third-year wide receiver rule and no single path a quarterback takes to competence. The Seattle Seahawks could employ any strategy this offseason and still not start a competent quarterback in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If it sticks with Matt Hasselbeck, it will commit itself to Hasselbeck's decline phase, starting him in his age 35, 36 and 37 year-old seasons. For perspective, a quarterback performs at 83.2% of total capacity at 34, but historically, that capacity drops to 76.8, 69.9 and 62.9% from 35 to 37. The Seahawks could attempt to offset that decline through building a better team.

Whoever drafts Hasselbeck's replacement, whoever that replacement is, and however that replacement is integrated into the offense, the Seahawks will most likely decline as a passing offense in 2010. Old quarterbacks lose ability in chunks. Young quarterbacks gain ability in leaps. The two cross paths sometime around an old quarterback's age 36 season and a young quarterback's age 24 season.

Hasselbeck will turn 35 next season. Seattle can retain him through the end of his contract while simultaneously adding the quarterback of the future. Hasselbeck would be the presumed starter and presumably better than his young replacement, help transition Seattle towards its future, and potentially resurrect his own career, should he desire.

That's why I dub this the "Graceful Exit Plan." Seattle could draft a quarterback in the top ten, but is less likely to with Hasselbeck under contract and costing $10 million against the cap. In the last ten drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten five times. In the last twenty drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten ten times. It's difficult to project a draft so early in the process, but it is likely Jimmy Clausen will join Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Dan LeFevour and Sean Canfield atop this year's quarterback class.

Clausen is the most likely top-ten pick. The impact of keeping Hasselbeck is that Seattle is unlikely to select a quarterback within the top ten, and therefore we will assume Clausen is unlikely, Bradford could likewise be unlikely, but the remaining five will be available. The remaining five represent the most likely pool of replacements for Hasselbeck.

Canfield's age is not publically listed, Rotoworld lists him at 108, but he is a senior now and graduated from high school early to attend spring drills. It's most likely that Canfield is 22, and like most of the rest of his class, will be a 23 to 24 year-old rookie.

It's ridiculous to discuss a quarterback prospect's upside. Every legitimate prospect is capable of making Canton or selling Cadillacs in five years. Likewise, the age guidelines presented by Pro Football Reference evidence that quarterback development is initially about experience. The greatest single delta is between age 21 and age 22, when a quarterback jumps 22.2%, and the second greatest is between 22 and 23, when a quarterback jumps 18.5%. Most 22 year old quarterbacks are rookies. All 21 year old quarterbacks rookies. After the sophomore sprint growth is more gradual.

The Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Hasselbeck is a lame duck. The media loves to pick on such situations and tease out whatever controversy possible. The ownership, management and Hasselbeck must agree to bury the subject and unite behind a common plan. That starts the day after the draft, when the team provides a unified front: Hasselbeck is the starter, but his drafted replacement, the future.

If Greg Knapp is still Seattle's offensive coordinator, Seattle's pick will most reflect his personal preferences in a quarterback. Tim Ruskell has deferred to his coaching staff, sometimes smartly, and sometimes, like when re-signing Shaun Alexander, stupidly. It will reflect Knapp's system and Ruskell's eye for talent. Let's quickly vet potential candidates.

Knapp Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

LeFevour

Canfield

Ruskell Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

Tebow could fall off Knapp's list and Canfield appear on Ruskell's. The most likely candidate is McCoy. He fits Knapp's system and passes Ruskell's standards. Tebow is the second most likely candidate and then maybe Canfield. I'll run with Tebow and McCoy, because the two are similar types and would be built around in a similar fashion.

We'll assume Seattle's spends its first overall pick on McBow. Seattle would not likely spend additional early picks on the offensive line. Knapp would protect the quarterback by moving the pocket, establishing the run and extending the short passing attack. It would want a top receiver to pair with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, replace or eventually replace Nate Burleson (2010 is voidable), grow with McBow and one day power the McSeaBow's offense. Or, should that talent be unavailable, an elite running back prospect to lead Seattle's developing committee of backs.

Knapp likes speed and Ruskell likes polish. The two might settle on Brandon LaFell. Many players are faster than Lafell, but few are more polished. Lafell does not satisfy Knapp's desire for speed, but he can be a deep threat. He's a big player, known for his blocking ability, that passes Ruskell's standards and can fit within Knapp's system.

If Seattle retains or re-signs Burleson, or postpones its need at wide receiver, it could address its defense or add a running back. The one thing it will not likely do is invest heavily into its offensive line. Another GM might.

Seattle will face a difficult free agency before it reaches the draft. Retaining Hasselbeck means a major chunk of its salary cap is invested into a player very unlikely to contribute to its future. It could cut Patrick Kerney and Walter Jones, either, but it would be hard pressed to retain all three. It must cut someone or be dragged down by sunk cost.

That period will determine who Seattle targets in the draft, but skill position and defense should populate their prime targets.

How it Works: Seattle's coaching staff and executives buy themselves a stay of execution. Emphasis is on the future and Seattle's existing offense is culled for talent. One of Chris Spencer and Rob Sims will join Deon Butler, Max Unger, Justin Forsett, John Carlson, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player to form Seattle's offensive core going forward.

McBow starts for most of the preseason and subs if Hasselbeck is injured or grossly ineffective. Hasselbeck endures his victory lap with statesman-like aplomb and tutors his young understudy, to whatever undetermined effect. Seattle is not a true contender in 2010, but it could contend for the NFC West. The defense gels and Seattle's young offense shows flashes.

How it Fails: If Seattle cannot sooth Hasselbeck but feels compelled to retain him, it will struggle to keep the media hounds at bay. Management accepts 2010 as a season spent towards its future, but the media exploits the fanbase's impatience, growing dissatisfaction and entitlement, and not so subtly splits the franchise between Hasselbeck and management; The past and the future; winning and the losing it takes to win again.

McBow struggles in the preseason and is stuck behind Mike Teel or Seneca Wallace on Seattle's depth chart. The offense, built to be cheap and good, versus expensive and dominating, like the Seahawks of yore, is cheap and bad. The defense does not pick up the slack. The Seahawks spiral towards their third straight losing season, a little older, and further wedged between a full rebuild and mediocrity.

USC 42 Oregon St. 36...Man that was close...too close!

Paragon SC — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 03:49:50 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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So, discuss the game.

I am going to jump all over for a bit throwing it out there as thins comes to my head.

This game reminded me of the Fresno St. game in 2005.

Hats off to Cansfield...he would not be deterred, he never gave up and we were damn lucky that he did not get to finish the job.

The Rodgers brothers continue to frustrate our defense. Mike Riley has found a gold mine in these two great players. Speaking of RIley he really knows how to scheme against us. He is the class of the Pac-10.

I am not sure I can say that SC was out of gas because of the ND win last week. We know OSU is good, they have shown us some grit in the past. SC was out played in some areas tonight and it should be cause for concern...especially with Oregon up next week.

We will have our hands full up in Autzen, especially if we are missing McCoy. The defense needs to get better.

Taylor Mays disappoints me with his rough play. There is no need for that. I have defended him in the past but it is hard to keep defending himwhe players helmets are coming off like coed's panties.

Barkley did not look his best. He made some poor throws that kept OSU in the game. The defense did an OK job and they were on the field a lot. They let some plays go tonight that the haven't let go in other games. I was surprised at many of the missed tackles I saw that kept some OSU drives alive. The defense can't bail us out every game, the offense needs to put a lot more points on the board.

I just don't understand why Bates and Morton didn't run the ball more when they were driving the ball midawy through the 4th. Throwing a pick there lets OSU back in the game and OSU goes down and gets a score at the 5:40 mark.

There is simply no excuse for SC to continue to air it out...Bradford was doing a fine job in there.

Thank you Allen Bradford!

Thank you D-Will!!

Penalties were fine in the first half but sloppy in the second half.

Special teams were a wash in my eyes.

Leave your comments or rants here...I will back later tomorrow for a closer look (I am on the road back to NYC in the PM)

This is our post game thread.

FIGHT ON!

Why Oregon will beat Oregon State

jtlight — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:00:08 -0000

We have a big Civil War coming up, and, you know what, I’m feeling good about it. (Because I’ll be gone over the next few days—Happy Thanksgiving to you all!—I’m posting this a bit early.)

This Civil War should be a great game. The teams are evenly matched, and either could win. But I believe Oregon has a few advantages that will give them an edge for the win.

Here’s why Oregon will win the game:

Oregon’s offensive gameplan will neutralize the strengths of the OSU defense—pass rush and speed.

The only real stand-out section of the OSU defense is their pass rush. They have great ends who rival Oregon’s as the best in the Pac-10. Victor Butler and Slade Norris are near the top of the Pac-10 in both sack and tackles for loss, and the entire team is 3rd in the conference in sacks. This strength was how they beat California. The pocket collapsed around Riley all day long, and forced him into many bad passes—he simply had no time.

However, Oregon’s offense will be able to neutralize this advantage with the schemes they run:

They move the quarterback a lot. Because of this, the QB is rarely placed in a position where he can be easily sacked. There are many rollouts and throws on the move that are utilized, which limit the amount that the QB is exposed to pressure.
There are many quick throws. From slants and screens to the seam throws that happened in the Arizona game, the Oregon offense has become about quickness. Masoli can move through his progressions quickly.

Furthermore, Oregon’s pass protection has been excellent. They are 3rd in the conference in sacks allowed, giving up 15 on the season, second to OSU’s 11, but Oregon has given up only 3 more sack yards than OSU. This is again due to the scheme. The number of sacks is slightly inflated because many of the "sacks" occur on QB keepers, or other similar plays, and are not as drive killing as normal sacks. Oregon averages only 5.4 yards lost per sack, which is less than what is typical for most teams.

OSU is also a very fast defense. They run hard and they swarm the ball. This was seen in the Arizona game, but Mike Stoops apparently didn’t like running his successful misdirection plays. Though this defense will work against much of Pac-10, it won’t work against a team that runs misdirection all day. It is a recipe for disaster, especially when you look at how effective Oregon has been at running the spread option since the UCLA game. Jeremiah Masoli has the spread option locked in. They have been running misdirection to backs and receivers, and have even been running their own version of the flysweep.

While OSU will get a big tackle for loss here or there, Oregon will also break a lot of good gains. I assume the Beaver coaching staff will try to adjust, but at this point in the season, that could do more harm than good. It is very hard to change your entire defensive philosophy for one game. Mike Riley will most likely want to come out and do what they do. They will stress assignments, but they have been successful at swarming, and it will be tough for them to be successful against this misdirection. And let’s not forget the last time they faced a spread team. Yes it was a long time ago, but the Oregon scheme should be able to neutralize the strength of the OSU defense, and use it to their advantage, without having to change one iota on the offensive side of the ball.

These problems are only compounded when you consider…

Oregon’s offense provides enough of a threat to throw the ball to make their run game devastating.

If you see any Beaver "commentary," you will no doubt see some comments such as "Oregon can’t pass the ball." Now, this would of course be the most intelligent and insightful commentary provided by the Beaver faithful, as it would be both a full sentence and all words would be spelled correctly, but if you use even an ounce of logic, this quickly breaks down.

First, let’s be honest, Oregon has struggled to throw the ball during this season. They have been wildly inconsistent. But if a team were not able to pass, and were truly one-dimensional, moving the ball at all would be near-impossible. And we did see this, during each of the losses, moving the ball was a struggle, and the offense was quite impotent without the threat of the pass.

But in the rest of the games, passing has more or less been there, despite struggles.

They lead the Pac-10 in total offense. Now, this is padded a bit, because Oregon runs so many more plays than other teams, but if we dig a little deeper, despite the struggles that Oregon has had, they are still averaging 6.2 yards per play, good for 19th in the nation and 2nd in the conference.

Whatever way you slice it, that is darn good. While Oregon’s offense has not been where we would like it for much of the season, this has rarely put any damper on the running game. Oregon has averaged a ridiculous 5.97 yards per carry on the ground (4th in the nation), despite passing struggles.

And, as long as you’re moving the chains and moving the ball down the field, I could care less if you do it through the air or on the ground.

And at this point of the season, OSU is going to have to respect the passing game to the degree that it will hurt the run defense. OSU is going to have to play the safeties to watch Ed Dickson and others in the middle of the field. They will have to defend the edges, which can be exploited by quick receivers.

Oregon is not a one dimensional offense as Beaver fans would wish, and Oregon should be able to move the ball effectively for much of the game. If Masoli throws the ball effectively, not necessarily all over the field, but simply effectively, then Oregon State will have loads of trouble stopping the Oregon offense.

Oregon has a better rushing defense

If you look at the rest of the OSU defense, it is above average, but far from stellar. Their rushing defense is 2nd in yards, but only 4th in yards per attempt, which displays how well the OSU offense has done at keeping the time of possession in OSU’s favor. This is not to demean the OSU accomplishments, but these stats do not indicate a dominant rushing defense. They indicate a defense that has been given advantages, and taken those advantages.

Another thing to look at is how the rushing defenses have performed versus their degrees of competition. The Duck rushing defense does not have a wide disparity between their run defense performances in their wins and their losses. They have averaged less than 3.2 yards/attempt against both winning and losing teams, and in their wins and losses.

On the other hand, the disparity for the Beaver’s is shocking. In their wins, they have given up 2.67 ypc. Against teams with losing records, 2.77 ypc. Against unranked teams, 2.88 ypc. But in their losses 4.72, against winning teams 3.93, and against ranked teams, 4.70.

The simple fact is this: OSU is not a great rushing defense. They are not a pushover, but they are far from the rushing defense of last season. If you look at their losses, they lost because they could not run the ball, and had a great deal of trouble stopping the run. They have lived on controlling the ball, and running the ball. When they have failed at this, they have lost. In their losses, they allowed over 190 yards on the ground per game, and less than 100 in their wins. You would normally expect a disparity, but the difference in these numbers in unreal, and show the soft spot in the OSU defense, that can be exploited.

Simply put, OSU will have a lot of trouble stopping the Oregon rushing attack.

On the other side of the ball...

The Oregon defense will be able to make the OSU offense one-dimensional

Jacquizz Rodgers will not be playing, and I was more afraid of him than any player we have faced pretty much all season. He is astounding, and does not go down easy. He always seems to get 2-4 more yards than he should, and has been devastating defenses. He would have eaten Oregon’s defense alive.

Instead, we get to face Ryan McCants. As much as the Beaver faithful want to say this is OK, and say how highly touted and strong he is, I don’t buy it. He isn’t half the back that Jacquizz is. He has not had one average game all season, against anyone of consequence.

On top of this, Oregon has feasted on the larger, slower backs. They have stopped cold the likes of Ian Johnson and Toby Gerhart, while they had trouble with Anthony Kimble and Jahvid Best.

Without Jacquizz, the OSU offense will lose much of their ground game, and will be left with the flysweep. Against Arizona, that play gained over 2/3 of the OSU rushing yards after Jacquizz went down.

It will be tough to stop this play, but I actually feel that the Oregon coaching staff will be ready for this. They were burned by it last year, and have had time to stew on it. They have studied the play, and have learned much more about it since the loss last year. The Oregon defense has been seeing a form of the flysweep all year. Granted Terrence Scott is not as fast as James Rodgers, but he’s no slouch. Though we’ve had our problems with defensive coaching, this is one instance where I feel they’ll be ready.

As far as the passing game….

Oregon’s passing defense is not as bad as advertised

Yes, the passing defense gives up 250 yards per game. But they are also typically having 39 passes thrown on them per game. Now, Oregon’s pass defense is not the top-notch shut-down pass defense we thought they’d be. But they aren’t the Oregon pass defenses of the post-Joey years. Instead, they seem to be fairly average. Oregon is 7th in the Pac-10 but 52nd in the nation in pass defense efficiency this season. This is very average. In the early going, to USC and Boise State, they gave up efficiency of 189.91. In all other games, it has been 108.77. They give up 6.5 yards per attempt. In comparison, OSU gives up 6.3 yards per attempt.

This is not a "roll over and die" pass defense. They fight hard, hit hard, and have grown a lot in the past few games. OSU is going to get some yards, and is most likely going to get a big play or two. The Oregon passing defense has also grown a great degree since the USC debacle. Responsibilities were shifted, and decision-making for the safeties (specifically young TJ Ward) have been made easier, and this has paid off.

I don’t believe that OSU will simply throw the ball all over the field. Their quarterbacks are far from perfect. Whichever one is playing will most likely make a mistake or two. This is not an offensive passing team, a la Texas Tech or others, that will be able to do whatever they want. They will have specific things that they can do, which will fail some of the time, and which will work some of the time.

Thus, the maligned Oregon secondary will be able to put enough of a clamp on the OSU passing game

All the pressure is on Oregon State, and Oregon is rested

Oregon State has everything to lose from this game, while Oregon has nothing to lose.

Oregon had a week to rest and recover after a long season; OSU did not.

Oregon will come out ready to hit somebody, and ready to push around the Beavers. Will it work? I’m not sure, but they will have a distinct psychological edge.

This is going to be a very good game. OSU is going to make some plays. Oregon is going to make some plays. But I think they have significant advantages on both sides of the ball. OSU has gotten big explosion plays in recent games, but so has Oregon.

If mistakes and explosion plays are equal and Oregon can run a similar number of plays as Oregon State, Oregon should win this game.

Nothing is for certain of course, but I’m feeling good.

GO DUCKS!

All statistics can be obtained at www.cfbstats.com.

A look over the offensive numbers

Jake Bertalotto — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:45:05 -0000

Have you come crashing down from your post-Beaver-victory high yet?

Team Offense: 17 first downs, 166 rushing yards, 224 passing yards, 390 total yards, 0 turnovers, 6.0 yards per play.

Sean Canfield: 20/32, 224 yards, 1 TD

I thought Sean played a great good enough game, especially in the second half when it mattered. He got off to a slow start, and still was off target on a few balls, but for the most part, he did what he needed to do. There was the one brutal pass in which he sidestepped an Arizona defensive lineman like a matador, then heaved a wobbly spiral into the heart of the Arizona secondary. It all worked out in the end, but he got extremely lucky.

I liked Canfield's ability to go downfield in the game. The pass to James that was dropped was right on the money. The deep bomb to Sammie down the sideline was underthrown, but that might have been beneficial to the Beavs. If Sean hits Sammie in stride, he walks into the end zone and the Beavers score with 0:40 on the clock. And then we must play defense to prevent a touchdown, a la Utah, a la ASU.

James Rodgers: 10 rushes, 102 yards, 1 TD. 2 catches, 9 yards.

A 41 yard touchdown reception would have made James' line look that much better, but we definitely need to stop talking about that. The fly sweep was resurrected tonight in Tucson, just in time for us to torture the UO secondary with it next week. This was good to see, because teams have done a pretty good job of shutting down the fly sweep this season. Perhaps they're finding ways to stop it, but stopping both Rodgers seems to be what teams are struggling with. For most of the game, Arizona only had one Rodgers to stop, and they couldn't even do that.

Sammie "TNT" Stroughter: 5 catches, 116 yards.

Okay, so maybe the nickname won't stick. But I loved how pumped up Sammie got after making the 47 yard catch that set the Beavers up to win the game. That catch was huge, but equally as important was the 4 yard slant pattern that he turned into a 34 yard gain (on third down) after gravity robbed James Rodgers of a touchdown on the play prior. That set the Beavers up for a touchdown, which Sammie caught amidst a swarm of Wildcats in the end zone. The Versus angle didn't really show what Sammie did to get open, but have you ever seen The Matrix? I'm just sayin'. The line of scrimmage was the seven yard line, and judging by how much time elapsed while Sean rolled out to his left, one would think it would be difficult to hide from defenders contained in such a small space.

Ryan McCantsStopTheBeavers: 15 rushes, 54 yards.

I was generally impressed with Ryan. It seems like he had phases of effectiveness when he was getting 2-4 extra yards per carry, sort of like Quizz does on a regular basis. And then there were times where he rumbled for a ton of extra yards with guys all over him. But there were also times when I felt like he couldn't get out of the backfield, and if he did, he was underachieving by not scrapping for extra yards. It's nice to know that we have a nice back to complement Quizz (a change of pace, per se), but it's also nice to know that he can makes some things happen on his own.

Jeremy Francis: 1 rush, 2 yards. 7 catches, 61 yards, 1 awesome lateral.

It never really struck me until tonight how much Francis looks like Yvenson Bernard. There was a point in the game (it was the play where he got lit up by a UA defender) where I seriously did a double take becasue I thought it was Bernard making a catch. I think it's the hair...

Great job by Francis, especially in the closing minutes of the game when he picked up the first 25 yards of Oregon State's game-winning drive. I present the unsung play of the game award to Francis for the heads up move to lateral the ball to James Rodgers on the ball he caught over the middle- I don't want to think about what would have happened had we not stopped the clock there.

Jacquizz Rodgers: 4 rushes, 20 yards

Watching the first quarter replay off my DVR reminded me of just how good this guy is. He only rushed the ball four times before he exited due to injury on a pass, (Remember his quote, coach Riley? He said "I don't get happy, I just run the ball". If it's not runnin' the ball, Quizz doesn't do it. So don't throw the ball to him anymore!) but they were good runs. Especially the nine yarder. Not the best, I realize, but watching those replays made me want more Quizz! Heal it up this week, buddy!

And how about the beard Langsdorf has accumulated, too sexy?

Brett Favre discusses his newest Wranglers commercial and the benefits of wearing jeans while playing touch football

Poll

No Shave November:

Good idea, past the itchy stage

68 votes

Bad idea...mine isn't coming in quite as well as I'd hoped

9 votes

It's BURNING--that's how you know it's working!!!

8 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Lyle at 80% or Sean at 100%?

Jake Bertalotto — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 04:49:26 -0000

No matter how hard it tries, the quarterback conversation never dies....

We witnessed Lyle Moevao lead the Beavers to a victory over the California Golden Bears last week, obviously without a full-strength shoulder. He got the job done, although having his worst full game of the season on paper. Give him credit: Lyle hit the short passes, converted four passes on third down for first downs, and completed fifty percent of his passes. Also give credit the the OSU coaching staff for sticking to their gameplan.

However, Lyle obviously wasn't at his best. When he threw the intercept to Syd'Quan Thompson on the third play of the game, you could tell that the deep arm strength wasn't there. We know that Sean is a better deep threat than Lyle, but still, you could tell by seeing Lyle under-throw and float that interception that he was somewhat off his game.

And then we learned from various sources that Lyle played the game sick.

We know that Sean throws a pretty ball, but I'll argue that Lyle brings more leadership to the table than Sean. Sean did demonstrate that he can play with high intensity in his start against UCLA, but I need to see more from #5 before I change my mind.

I'll also argue that Lyle didn't bring his normal energy to Saturday's game. He was sick, and his arm wasn't completely there. But he still got the job done.

Obviously, barring any drastic developments, Lyle will be the starter this Saturday in the desert. And he'll probably have more arm strength than he did against Cal. But play armchair head coach for a minute. Who would you have preferred to start for your team?

I know there's many of you who are calling for Canfield over Lyle. However, I think there's just as many of us who think Lyle is the man.

But ultimately, aren't you glad that we've got two QB's who can lead this team?!?!

So, Beaver Nation, if you were paid the big bucks, who would you have started against the Golden Bears?

Poll

Disregarding the outcome of the game, if you were Mike Riley, who would you have started at Quarterback against the California Golden Bears?

Lyle (sick, sore arm)

119 votes

Sean (just beat UCLA on the road, injury free)

98 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

Question: What kind of Bear is best?

The VD Special — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:39:40 -0000

False. Black bear.

So in case you guys didn't know, we have a pretty big game coming up against Cal, who apparently is UCLA's twin brother that got separated at birth: both are UC schools, both have nicknames referring to bears, they share the same fight song, thecolor schemes are similar, the academics similar. They basically are each other. One is better at football than the other, currently, and I'll let you guess which one it is. But needless to say, Cal is coming up to Corvallis looking for vengance. Last year when we played, the Golden Blogs Bears were #2 , and #1 LSU had lost earlier in the day. The Bears were ready to take that step forward into the #1 spot. Chants could be heard from the student section "WE'RE NUMBER 1!" the minute the LSU score was announced. But a couple of key plays helped shaped what was, the great words of Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach, the greatest upset in Oregon State history of the year. This play started the greatness for Oregon State. Note: Look how happy Kevin Riley looks at the beginning:

After that goaline stand, Oregon State was looking pretty solid. Until Mike Riley's son Kevin decided to take over the game and drive Cal right down the field. Then he decided to make the biggest mistake of his young career. With Cal trailing 28-31, he marched the Bears all the way to the Oregon State 12 yard line. With 14 seconds left (and no timeouts) the Bears had one last chance to try to get to the end zone. Let's watch :-D

What a game right?! Even Sean Canfield had his best game of his miserable year, going 18-33, 186 yards and NO touchdowns INTERCEPTIONS. The Cal game was the turn around game for us last year, and this year we need the win more than ever. The stakes are as high as they've ever been for a lot of Beaver fans, and the game should be a good one. So, all that being said, I ask you fans of Building the Dam!

Poll

What kind of bear is best?

Golden Bear

42 votes

Bruin

7 votes

Who cares? At least they aren't Ducks!

88 votes

137 votes | Poll has closed