SB Nation - James Davis

Previewing Clemson at South Carolina: Q & A with Shakin' the Southland

Gamecock Man — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 16:27:33 -0000

In an effort to prove that blogging can bring sworn enemies together on a plane of peace and amity, Shakin' the Southland and I got together for a little meeting of the minds to discuss the big game this weekend. (My answers to his questions are forthcoming.)

1. What are your thoughts on C. J. Spiller and the Heisman?

CJ Spiller may be the greatest all around player in Clemson history and has done everything that he can do to help this team win. Unfortunately, Clemson's loss to Maryland coupled with lacking rushing numbers really hurt Spiller's chances. I really wish that Spiller would have been able to pad his numbers with more carries against MTSU (4 carries 12 yards) and Coastal (5 carries 27 yards).

When you look at all Spiller has accomplished this season while being hurt for the majority of the season, his accomplishments from week to week are unbelievable. CJ is the best all-around player I have ever seen. Long and the short of it, CJ Spiller is deserving of the Heisman (and is the most valuable and most all-around complete player in the sport), but I unfortunately don't think that he will win the award.

2. Dabo Swinney has already managed to achieve the goal that so consistently eluded Tommy Bowden: Dabo has won an Atlantic Division title and a berth in the ACC Title Game. What is Dabo doing better than his predecessor, or is this season's success just attributable to the stars aligning?

Coach Swinney does quite a few things better than CTB did. First and foremost, this team is excited and ready each and every week. Bowden repeatedly made comments that his job was not to get the team excited to play football. Swinney has a more emotional fire, and challenges this team constantly. It is apparent to me that this Clemson team plays much harder under Swinney than it did for Bowden.

Second, Swinney has instilled a much more aggressive attitude for this team. Swinney removed OC Rob Spence and DC Vic Koenning and replaced them with Billy Napier and Kevin Steele. Spence's offense, which is rather complex, relied on a series of short passes and screens was replaced with a simplified offense designed to take shots and get the ball in playmakers' (Spiller and Ford) hands. After the UMd game, Swinney and Napier further simplified the Clemson offense and incorporated the TE's much more. Defensively, Clemson under Koenning played a lot of umbrella coverage and was not aggressive. Steele has shown multiple looks, installed more blitz packages, and plays a lot more man/man press coverage. Clemson's ability to create more pressure coupled with good secondary play has created lots of turnovers and 3 and out series for the Tiger defense.

Finally, I think that the players can relate much better to Swinney than Bowden. Swinney personally recruited a large portion of this team, and the players have a tight bond with Swinney (see Spiller turning down entry to the draft last season to return to CU for another season). Swinney is a little younger, more energetic, and looks to be more in-tune with the players.

3. Tell us a little about how this coaching staff has managed to put together an offense that is so much more consistently competent than last year's despite having to go with a freshman quarterback and without former tailback James Davis?

Freshman QB Kyle Parker has all the tools to be really good, he just lacks experience. KP now is better than Cullen Harper was at the end of last season. Also, Clemson has utilized a solid stable of backs (led by Spiller) throughout the season. While I don't know that Ellington/Harper are better than Davis, they certainly provide good depth at the RB position. In defense to both Harper and Davis, I do think that both players would be better if they were on this team as opposed to last season because this team is better fundamentally and strategically.

We wrote about differences we expected from the Spence offense to the Napier/Swinney offense in length before the season at http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2009/08/dabospence-elaboration.html . I feel this prognosis is still correct. Clemson has a simpler offense this season. The offense tries to exploit defenses utilizing Clemson's best players. After the UMd game, CU further simplified things and incorporated the TE's more, as TE Michael Palmer is the best pass catcher and route runner on the team. Clemson is better up front than last season and is not afraid to stretch defenses with Jacoby Ford's speed. Consequently, I believe that this offense is better because it is more fundamentally sound, tougher, not as complex, and is more strategically focused than one year ago.

4. Clemson seems to be becoming DE U. What's the story there? How do you so consistently keep your roster stocked with such great ends?

Both Sapp and Bowers are from Bamberg and were highly rated coming out of HS. Goodman is from Florence. Clemson has done a great job identifying in-state talent and keeping these guys from leaving the state. Andre Branch (Richmond, Va) has provided some nice depth for us this year. Kevin Alexander has been a solid player his entire CU career both from the end position and at LB. Kourtnei Brown, a JR from Charlotte, is redshirting this season and will provide more depth for the next two seasons.

Clemson has drawn such talent to the school not only by utilizing talented recruiters (Swinney, Napier, Rumph for the guys mentioned above), but also by presenting past successes. Putting Gaines Adams and Phillip Merlin in the pros makes recruiting a lot easier.

5. How on earth did you manage to hold a pretty decent BC team to just over 50 yards? That's unbelievable! Can Clemson's D play like that against Carolina?

Clemson's defense is probably the best and hardest hitting out of Tigertown since Coach Ford's recruits were still competing. That being said, Clemson is fortunate to have a very good and aggressive defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele. Steele is great at putting together personnel and blitz packages that exploit and confuse offenses. This is the main reason for the early season success against BC. However, you need to also remember that BC opened with two inferior (Northeastern and Kent State ) opponents with a relatively young team and a QB controversy going into the Clemson game. Thus, Clemson had better (and more experienced) players, a fantastic strategy, and caught BC at the right time of the year.

South Carolina has not been consistent running the football all year. If the Gamecocks become one-dimensional, Clemson should be able to utilize its superior line to get to Garcia. I think that SC would be more successful running three-step timing routes than hoping Garcia can scramble and make things happen moving around inside and outside the pocket. Clemson has agile and very fast big men who have maintained containment for most of the season. Also, Clemson has some ball-hawks in the secondary, particularly DeAndre McDaniel. If Garcia gets sloppy with the ball, CU will make him pay.

I am a little concerned about Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley because of Clemson's aggressive defensive strategy. Both of these guys have a distinct height advantage over both Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor. If SC can get these guys on an island, I expect a few jump balls to be thrown in each player's (specifically Jeffery's) direction. Throwing these passes out of a 3-step drop will severely offset Clemson's advantage up front.

The one thing that Clemson has done well all year is make adjustments. Consequently, if South Carolina is going to have success offensively, I would expect to see it before half.

6. Tell us about what this rivalry means to Clemson fans from your point of view.

This rivalry is a big game for the simple fact that there is not a day that passes in this state that Clemson and South Carolina football are not discussed. I think fan's passion about this game has made it a little more important to Clemson's program over the past few years because coaches (Bowden nearly every year since '03 and Swinney last season) were fighting to retain their jobs, and a win over the in-state rival really helps this cause. This game is important for in-state recruiting and for the boosters, as players want to play for winners and boosters want to donate to winners.

Because each resident of the state is either a Clemson fan or a SC fan, everyone knows something about both teams. In fact, most fans make it a point to watch not only their own team's game each week but the rival's also. Such intimacy with the opponent increases the emotion involved all season long until the November rivalry game.

We have kind of gotten used to winning a lot of these games, but that does not change the fact that this one is important to everyone in the state. Coach Ford had a tough time getting over the '87 game, and every now and then you still see a "I Turned Danny In" bumper sticker. Cockfan still complains about the 2000 rendition and the numbers 63 and 17 mean something completely different to residents of this state than they do to the rest of the country. So this game is really an excuse for one side to talk trash to the other, and neither party wants to be on the losing end of that one.

7. Give us a prediction. How will the game go down, who will win, and how confident are you in your prognosis?

I think that this one will get off to a fast start. I fully expect USC to throw the book at Clemson's defense Saturday. I expect SC to do some things similar to what UVa did in the first half, with some single wing/wildcat plays, reverse passes, etc. I think this thing goes into half, knotted at 14 each. Steele makes necessary adjustments at half and CU wins 28-24. I look for a strong showing from the USC defense, but see Spiller, Ellington, and Harper wearing USC down and gashing this defense for large chunk of yards as the game progresses.

Behind Enemy Lines: A Q&A With Block-C on Maryland-Clemson

Ben Broman — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:28:28 -0000

Our friends over at Block-C, the premier Clemson blog on the 'net, were kind enough to virtually sit down with us and trade emails on Saturday's matchup. While we'll have a full preview tomorrow, here's an early taste from the best source available: the enemy.

1) Alright, we probably played a part in the Tommy Bowden firing, so it should be asked: how's Dabo been so far? Are you pleased with the hire?

Dabo brings the sincerity and personality that many felt Tommy was missing. Simply put, Bowden wasn't a "Clemson Guy." Dabo is. Our fanbase is pretty please with him for the most part, but he's yet to really pick up any marquee victories over truly tough teams. But he is a good coach. He hasn't totally crapped the bed on us yet.

2) Maryland's underachieved pretty terribly. How has Clemson looked this year: overachieved, underachieved, or just right?

Clemson has looked just about right so far this year. We're going to be a seven win team, eight if we're lucky this year. For this year, we're going to be the same old heartbreak Clemson Tigers you've come to know and count on to lose when you need them to win. Don't put too much stock in us, but we should get better as the year progresses.

3) On the note of Maryland underachieving, how's the Clemson fanbase viewing this game? We aren't a Duke-esque auto-win yet, are we?

People are guessing that you're not far from the truth with the Duke comparison this year, but you haven't dropped to those standards on the whole yet. You've got a pretty good coach who has a good chance to turn things around if you folks don't get crazy and can him. All you guys need is a huge recruiting swing and a few assistant coaching hires and you'll be fine down the road.

4) Is Kyle Parker officially the answer at QB, or is the jury still out? Oh, and what happened to Willy Korn? I remember when he was a huge recruit...and now he's disappeared.

All signs point to Parker as quarterback. He seems to have a bit more arm strength and a faster delivery. Korn injured his shoulder last year and that seemed to set his progress back a bit. He has seen limited time this year and hasn't shined but at the same time hasn't gotten any reps to really gel. Transfer rumors abound but with a solid Parker and the incredibly talented Tajh Boyd waiting in the wings it may be inconsequential. Korn has a huge albatross hanging around his neck that he needs to shake. Start saving your horseshoes...

5) C.J. Spiller hasn't looked all that worthy of the gigantic SPILLER FOR HEISMAN posters and hype, at least not stats-wise (and he has fewer all-purpose yards than Torrey Smith, so take that). Has his real play looked better/is there a legitimate reason, or has he not taken well to being "the man"?

CJ Spiller has been battling injuries all year but has still managed to rack up no less than three 60 yard games plus scoring touchdownss this season. He's got plenty of talent, but he's still getting adjusted to carrying the majority of the workload that he shared with James Davis last year. He's going to be alright, just give it some time.

6) We're ACC-niks, but Saturdays are busy: what's one strength and one weakness about the Tigers that we may not know?

Our strength is our well publicized but sometimes loose defense. Our turd in the punch bowl has to be the receivers on our team and their inability to catch the ball, block, run routes, communicate with their quarterback, walk and chew gum... Yet again, Tommy Bowden's teams wouldn't have come back from 24 points down either against Georgia Tech in Bobby Dodd.

Post-Spring Previews: Clemson Tigers

Gamecock Man — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:18:52 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

4 months ago: Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney speaks during the Atlantic Coast Conference Kickoff college football media day in Greensboro, N.C., Monday, July 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Browse more photos »

After hosting the Florida Gators in week eleven, USC takes a week off before wrapping up the season with the annual rivalry match with the Clemson Tigers. The Tigers enter 2009 flying distinctly under the radar in Dabo Swinney's first full season as head coach. After underachieving in each of the last few years of Tommy Bowden's tenure, expectations are decidedly lower for the transitioning Tigers this year. However, in many ways this year's Clemson may be better than the Clemsons of years past. James Davis and Cullen Harper are gone, but C.J. Spiller is still around, the offensive line should be a bit better, and there's talent on the defense. Plus, I have a feeling Swinney will excel his predecessor in the coaching department, not that that's saying so much. This team's ceiling will likely be determined by how far either Kyle Parker or Willy Korn go towards becoming top-tier quarterbacks. Parker appears to be the starter right now, but don't be surprised to see Swinney continue to give Korn a look.

Of course, we've floundered horribly in this rivalry series in recent years. Despite not having been an elite team in recent years, the Tigers have generally had their way with us, winning 11 of the past 13, including a few blowouts, such as the 31-14 beatdown last year at Clemson. By contrast, we've won more games against Georgia in the past decade, despite the fact that the Dawgs have clearly been much better than Clemson in that time span. I've heard lots of theories as to why Clemson has owned us, perhaps the most pervasive being that we're simply spent by the time this game comes around. Personally, I don't buy this theory; the ACC may not be as good as the SEC, but it's not a cake walk, as suggested by the fact that Clemson usually comes into this game with almost as many losses as we have. The Tigers could just as easily say that their schedule wears them out, but they seem to always play their best in this game. The opposite could be said for us.

Whatever the case may be, we have to figure out a way to start winning more of these games, and not just for pride's sake, although that's certainly important. Losing a match with the Tigers may not keep us out of the SEC Title Game in the official standings, but it does hurt us on the recruiting trail, which is one of the things that keeps us from being able to challenge Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the East. All things considered, we recruit surprisingly well against Clemson considering how badly they usually seem to manhandle us. That has me thinking that if we could turn the tables on them that we could corner the market on the in-state talent. That's what will get us over the hump in the SEC, and that's why Clemson-Carolina is about more than bragging rights.

Let's take a look at how we stack up against the Tigers this year.

Offense

Expect to see Clemson run more spread formations this year than in years past. The Tigers want to get their two best offensive players, C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford, the ball in space so they can make big plays with their speed.

Quarterback

While the Tigers have some talent on offense, they have a big question mark at the position that matters the most. Kyle Parker has won the starting job after solid spring and August practices, but Willy Korn will continue to get looks if Parker struggles. Both are talented, but either way, Clemson will have to rely on a freshman without significant experience this year.

I call this one a push. Stephen Garcia is slightly further along in his development than Parker or Korn and probably has the most upside of the three. However, Clemson has an advantage over us in the depth department.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

Clemson returns a legitimate Heisman contender in Spiller. Spiller needs no introduction here, as Carolina fans won't be soon to forget what he's done to us over the course of his career. The Tigers will look to Jamie Harper to fill the void left by James Davis. The highly recruited Harper rushed for only around 100 yards last year but will be expected to play a much larger role this year.

I give the Tigers a slight to strong advantage here. We have the talent and depth to have a very good running game this year, but, unfortunately, we don't have a Spiller, who is one of the nation's very best.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Clemson loses some significant players here from a year ago. Gone are receivers Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham and end Michael Palmer. The Tigers do return Jacoby Ford, who is a definite big-play threat. However, outside of Ford they have almost no one with any significant experience. Possession receiver and end are question marks for Clemson.

I give Carolina a slight advantage here. Clemson does have the guy with the most career catches, but we have a large number of guys that have proven they're capable, whereas Clemson has no one after Ford. That gives us a key advantage in the depth department.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Offensive Line

Last year, offensive line was Clemson's weakness throughout most of the season. This year, though, the more experienced Tigers offensive line should be better. The Tigers only lose one player, center Bobby Hutchinson, and return a solid group of guys with starting experience. Depth may be the only cause for concern.

The Tigers look quite a bit like us here. Both of us should field much better lines in 2009. I'm calling this a push.

Verdict: Push

Let's take a look at defenses after the jump.

Defense

Clemson runs a 4-3 defense. Swinney and coordinator Kevin Steele have said that they plan to be more aggressive than the previous regime.

Defensive Line

The Tigers are strong at end, which they hope will help them generate a better pass rush than a year ago. Da'Quan Bowers is another Gaines Adams in the making, while Ricky Sapp should be good if he recovers from last year's knee injury. The Tigers did lose some key tackles from a year ago, and may struggle to find depth if Jarvis Jenkins or Brandon Thomas go down.

I give Carolina a very slight advantage here, mainly due to greater experience in the starting lineup and questions about how good Sapp will be after his injury. Both teams are in a similar boat in terms of depth, so the team with the most guys still standing by the end of the year may be the one with the advantage when the time comes.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

The Tigers are pretty solid here. Interior linebacker Brandon Maye is great in rushing defense and will probably lead the team in tackles. Kavell Conner gives them a solid outside guy. The other spot is a little shakier, with Scotty Cooper likely starting now that DeAndre McDaniel has moved to safety. Depth is also an issue.

I give us a slight advantage here. The Tigers don't quite have the star power we have at linebacker, but they should be good nonetheless.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Secondary

The secondary is Clemson's defense's strength, as the Tigers return quality experience at every position. Corner Chris Chancellor, who has been very successful against us over the course of his career, is the unit's star. Crezdon Butler is also good at the opposite corner, and the Tigers have quality backups for Chancellor and Butler. The Tigers lose strong safety Michael Hamlin, but they will replace him with the aforementioned McDaniel, who should ably fill Hamlin's shoes. Free safety is a little more of a question mark, but Clemson should be able to figure it out with the talent they have in the secondary reserves.

I give Clemson a slight to strong advantage here. News out of camp has been promising for our young secondary, but the Tigers are unquestionably more of a proven quantity.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Special Teams

The Tigers will suffer a complete overhaul of their kicking game after losing kicker Mark Buchholz (I'm sure you remember him) and Jimmy Maners. Spencer Benton and Richard Jackson are competing for kicking duties, while Dawson Zimmerman is expected to handle punts. Zimmerman did play some last year and was OK. Clemson does have a potentially explosive return game when Spiller and Ford are returning. Those of you that watched Alabama paste the Tigers last year may remember that one of their few highlights was a long kickoff return for a touchdown by Spiller.

I'll call this a push. We have slightly more stability in the kicking game, the same thing going for Clemson in the return game.

Verdict: Push

Coaches

Dabo Swinney was able to energize the Clemson faithful by finishing the regular season strongly. That finish, of course, included the blowout win over us, which certainly helped Swinney's reputation with Clemson faithful. The true test, though, begins now, after the lustre of that surprise finish has worn off. Swinney is still a coach with very, very little experience, certainly much less than you would expect for a guy in charge of a relatively high-profile program like Clemson. He has to prove that he wasn't a knee-jerk reaction hire--a la West Virginia's Bill Stewart--by having a better than average season this year. He doesn't have to win the ACC, mind you, but he does have the tools to finish in its upper half. If he can't do that--and he fails to beat us--expect the Tigers faithful to immediately begin to question the hire. And rightfully so, I would say; I'm still a bit surprised the Tigers didn't go after someone like Bobby Johnson. If Swinney does well, though, expect the hype machine to begin for the resurgence of Clemson football.

I'll give Steve Spurrier a slight advantage here based on experience. However, as with Lane Kiffin, it's really too early to make many judgment calls about Swinney, so take this comparison with a grain of salt.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Overall

My sense is that these are fairly evenly matched teams. Both should have pretty good defenses and both might have OK offenses if a few things fall into place. A few decisive questions jump out at me when trying to decide which will win. First of all, the two teams share inexperience at quarterback. Whether it's Parker / Korn or Garcia that's playing well by November will be a deciding factor in how good these two teams are relative to each other when they take the field. Second of all, Dabo Swinney and his staff are largely an unknown quantity, so their progress will be important. Finally, both teams have some depth issues on defense that may be exposed by the end of the season. The team that suffers fewest injuries at low-depth positions may have an advantage there. I don't have the answers to these questions right now, so I'm just going to go with my heart (and against historical precedent) and call it a close Carolina victory. I'll go ahead and admit that this pick derives at least in part from homerism and unwillingness to pick Clemson. We obviously have a lot to prove against these guys. I do, though, think the talent gap has closed to a certain degree. We're in a place to even up this series. The only thing remaining is to actually do it.

Prediction: 28-24 Carolina victory

Poll

The Clemson game will result in a (elaborate in the comments section)...

Blowout Carolina Victory

10 votes

Close Carolina Victory

26 votes

Close Clemson Victory

18 votes

Blowout Clemson Victory

33 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

ACC Roundtable: Pre-Season Edition

FSUncensored — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:43:30 -0000

Welcome readers of CBS Sports!

The Atlantic Coast Conference was quite the enigma in 2008. The ACC had 10 bowl teams and yet had no teams in the top 10 at seasons end. The ACC had the best non-conference performance among the BCS conferences, and yet nobody seemed to notice. Why is this?

The ACC isn't sexy. America loves sexy and in college football, offense is sexy. The ACC, on the other hand, is a defensive conference. Six of the ACC's head coaches have a background on the defensive side of the ball. Compare that to the Big 12, where only three of the head coaches have a defensive background. Head coach personalities are often reflected in the play of their teams, and that is the case with the ACC. The ACC was the best defensive conference in 2008, but again, few noticed. 5 ACC teams had a top 20 defense in 2008, and all but two had a defense in the top half of college football. No other conference came close. Wake Forest featured 4 Defensive NFL draft picks in the first 4 rounds, including the #4 overall pick in linbebacker Aaron Curry. That same Wake Forest team beat media darling Ole Miss and surprising Baylor out of conference, yet received little publicity for doing so with a 4-4 record in conference.

The ACC's style is downright boring. The majority of ACC coaches are very conservative. They punt. They play the field position game. They don't run wide-open offenses. The ACC has the lowest average margin of victory of all the major conferences. The games are all close, because all the teams are talented. There are no off-weeks in the ACC. Teams who overlook an opponent lost to that opponent more often than not. In many ways, the ACC resembles the NFL. People enjoy NFL football, but there isn't a higher-scoring alternative played on Sundays. As Tony Barnhart writes, the NFL loves the ACC. Over the last 5 years, the ACC has the most first round picks on defense.

And while the ACC plays great defense, they also have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. Most don't realize the good offense being played because of the defensive nature of the conference. 4 of the first 9 draft choices last year were from the ACC and 3 of those were offensive players. The last two 1st round QB's chosen from the ACC have been big time hits (Matt Ryan and Phillip RIvers), in no small part because of the excellent defenses they faced in the ACC.

In 2009 though, the ACC might put a few more points on the scoreboard, and catch the eyes of some voters who ignored the conference last year, as more offensive-minded coaches gain control, and young quarterbacks become experienced veterans. Inside, we preview the ACC with the help of some of the best writers who cover the ACC, in this first edition of the ACC Roundtable!

We asked each writer three question sets about their team.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?
The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?
Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Atlantic Division

Boston College won the ACC Atlantic last year by virtue of a tiebreaker over FSU and Maryland.

ATLANTIC	CONF. W-L	OVERALL W-L
Florida State	5-3	9-4
Boston College*	5-3	9-5
Maryland	4-4	8-5
Wake Forest	4-4	8-5
Clemson	4-4	7-6
North Carolina State	4-4	6-7

Talk about parity! The entire Atlantic division was bowl eligible, and every team was within 1 game of playing for the conference championship. This year, things look to be slightly more spread out, as several teams seem poised to take a big step forwards or backwards.

Forget the ACC writer's picks. Let's have a look at the current vegas odds:

9/4 Florida State
7/2 Clemson
7/2 North Carolina State
6/1 Wake Forest
9/1 Maryland
21/1 Boston College

There's a wide divide between the top three and the next two, and then a huge gap between everyone and Boston College. So let's start with Boston College.

Boston College

Boston College has a new head coach in Frank Spaziani this season after their head coach (Jeff Jagodzinski) left the team to pursue NFL opportunities. Spaziani was the Eagle's excellent defensive coordinator.

In 2008, Boston College had arguably the best defense in the nation (with USC and UF having legitimate claims as well). BC had two monsters in the middle. Over 650lbs of defensive tackle tandem in B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, who would be selected in rounds 1 and 2 of the NFL draft, respectively. They also had a Butkus Award Finalist in linebacker Mark Herzlich, a certain 1st round pick had he elected to leave school. Tragically, he decided to return to school and was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer this off-season. Not many schools have three or four early round draft choice types on defense, but BC had just that in 2008, and they rode that defense to the ACC championship game. Boston College notched an incredible 26 interceptions, which led the nation. They did this by dominating 1st and 2nd down with their huge defensive line and linebacking corps, which allowed their secondary to focus almost solely on the pass. Interceptions come on 3rd and long and BC was great at forcing opposing offenses into 3rd and long. This year, BC returns only 5 starters on defense, and none of those 5 are projected NFL selections. To say that the talent has dropped off would be a huge understatement. It's highly doubtful that BC's defense will come close to what it did last season, and the burden on the secondary should be significantly increased. Were those defensive backs really that good? Or were they the beneficiaries of a great front-7 that out opposing offenses in tough situations? BC hopes for the former but Vegas seems to think it is the latter.

On offense, BC was not great, but they weren't as bad as some might believe. Consider that they had to face the excellent defenses of Virgina Tech (twice), North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Florida State, and their numbers look a bit better. They have either the best or second-best offensive line in the ACC, led by Center Matt Tenannt and Left Tackle Anthony Costanzo, both of whom should eventually be first day draft choices. The wide receivers are experienced and are led by Rich Gunnell. The major question is quarterback, which our BC writers discuss below.

Your Boston College writers are Brian and Jeff of BC Interruption, one of the leading Boston College websites.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

BC will likely be better on the offensive side of the ball and worse on the defense side. Overall, this is probably a net loss. Unfortunately, this will show in the Eagles' final record. Notre Dame has a better chance of beating the Eagles this year (the game in South Bend). Our game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg is nearly a sure loss, and it's difficult to find definite wins on our ACC schedule. A record of 9-3 (5-3 ACC) is likely a best, best case scenario with anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4 a possibility. In all liklihood the Eagles won't surpass their 2008 win total.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't know if you can call it an injury per se, but obviously the biggest void for the Eagles to fill this season is in the linebacking corps with the loss of All-American Linebacker Mark Herzlich. Add to this the uncertainty of when Middle Linebacker Mike McLaughlin will return from tearing his Achilles back in March, and the Eagles will need newcomers to step up at linebacker. The Eagles will look to sophomores Dominick LeGrande and Will Thompson to fill the holes left by Herzlich and McLaughlin. Spaziani will likely also rotate in redshirt freshmen Alex DiSanzo and Nick Clancy as well as senior Kevin Distaso. Of that group, however, only Will Thompson has significant experience as he played behind Robert Francois. These Eagles will hopefully step up, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to completely fill the void left by Herzlich and McLaughlin.

Incumbent starting quarterback Dominique Davis leaving for academic reasons might actually be a blessing in disguise. This allowed the Eagles to go out and recruit another quarterback in Dave Shinskie, who appears to be the front-runner for the starting position. Also, where Jeff Jagodzinski and Steve Logan favored more of the duel-threat style quarterback (Davis and Tuggle), early it appears Frank Spaziani and OC Gary Tranquill favor more of the traditional, pro-style quarterback (Shinskie, Marscovetra, Rettig, Bordner).

Less importantly, it would have been nice to see WR Clarence Megwa back in pads during the Eagles opening practices, however Megwa injured his right hand and has had to sit out of practice. If Megwa can get back on the field, he will join a talented wide receiving corps that has the potential to be one of the better units in the conference (provided the starting QB can get them the ball). Still, we are glad Megwa is back and has recovered from a fairly gruesome broken leg injury suffered vs. Clemson last season. Again, if the QB can get the receivers the ball, I would expect big things from seniors Rich Gunnell, Clarence Megwa and Justin Jarvis. Hopefully, Ifeanyi Momah will step up and serve as more than a goal-line, possession receiver.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Without a doubt, the preseason focus is on the starting quarterback position. We will only go as far as our starting quarterback will take us. Right now, the candidates are trying to shake off the rust in practice as no QB has any FBS game experience.

The Eagles proved last year that they could make noise in the ACC simply by having a competent, game-managing quarterback. If David Shinskie (or Tuggle/Marscovetra) can manage the game and not lose games a la Chris Crane, the Eagles will likely live up to or slightly surpass their preseason expectations. However, the starting quarterback will have to step up their game and be even better than Crane was last season if Eagles fans expect the team to overachieve this season. There are too many questions on the defensive side of the ball this season. To overachieve, BC will have to win the games they won last year with defense (Notre Dame, Virginia Tech round 1, Florida State) with their offense.

Boston College seems to always exceed expectations. Losing their highly regarded head coach and their three best players from a season ago make Boston College a major longshot to win the division this season. Very few teams have the ability to replace the players BC lost, and the Eagles aren't in that group of teams. Bowl Eligibility should be considered a major victory for the Eagles.

Key Note: Boston College's defensive line and linebackers are 160lbs lighter this year than last year (1902 to 1742). BC was huge in the front-7 in 2008, and this is a major drop-off.

Prediction: 5-7 (2-6 ACC) BC's off-season was rather devastating and will be too much to overcome.

Maryland Terrapins

Maryland was quite the enigma in 2008. They beat bowl teams in Nevada, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Cal, yet lost to middle Tennessee State and were shut out by Virginia! They do return their quarterback a running back, but their offensive line and wide receivers are major question marks. They return just 4 starters on defense, and are switching from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme, despite having a serious lack of depth along the defensive line.

Your Maryland writer is Ben Broman, of the excellent Maryland website Testudo Times:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Short version: They'll be better, but the record won't be.

There's a lot to like about Maryland this year - a game-seasoned, fifth-year senior QB; a deep, talented stable of RBs with a frontline All-ACC starter; nine (yes, nine) game-ready WRs; a likely improved secondary; and leaders returning from the linebacking corps. The new defense, instilled by former UMass head coach Don Brown, has been getting rave reviews and has torn through the offense without fail so far, utilizing surprise blitzes and press coverage. While the defensive line has been getting a bad rap in the media, the new scheme will take a lot of pressure off them, and the projected starters all either have experience or were highly touted out of HS. There's only one problem, but it's a sizable one: the offensive line. The group is talented, but very, very young, which could render all those skill players moot, particularly early on as they adapt to playing when it counts.

By the end of the year, I'm fairly confident that the line will have gelled together and the weak spots will have been shored up, meaning this team will be a bear to play late in the season. At that point, there's no doubt in my mind this year's Maryland will be better than last year's. They might even be better already. But last year's Maryland overachieved a little, winning in spite of a constant prevent defense; so while they may win head-to-head, besting 8 wins may be tough to do, especially in an improved ACC.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Injuries have been quiet in College Park this off-season. The only major player lost was probable starting DT Dion Armstrong. He left the team due to academic ineligibility and fitness problems, but no one was really counting on his presence come September (these issues had been known for awhile). He'll be replaced by redshirt freshman A.J. Francis and true freshman Zach Kerr. Both should be able to do an adequate job in filling that hole - both are as talented as Armstrong, and very underrated.

There are a few other newcomers who could contribute, notably PK Nick Ferrara, G Pete White, LBs Darin Drakeford and Avery Murray, and RBs Caleb Porzel and D.J. Adams. Ferrara is a scholarship kicker, so you'd expect him to be the starter. White is a massive, talented guard, a position that doesn't have a lot of depth. Both Drakeford and Murray enrolled in the spring to get a head start, and, because there's not a lot of depth at LB, could find themselves backups. Neither Porzel nor Adams are needed, but they're two of the most skilled and athletic players Maryland's brought in a long time, and have been impressing Ralph Friedgen in practice. Friedgen's known to be quick to burn RB redshirts, so the best of the two may see the field.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

Unquestionably, the offensive line. As I've already said, they're the one huge weakness. If they can show that they're better than what people are saying, even if that only ends up being average, I'll be very confident about this team. If I had to single out one guy, I'd say LG Lamar Young - he's very talented, but reportedly has some issues with attitude, an issue a group this young doesn't need to deal with.

While he wasn't always incredibly productive, teams had to pay a ton of attention to wide receiver Darious Heyward-Bey. That won't be the case in 2009 as Bey is gone to the NFL (#7 overall choice.)

This Maryland team should take a step back. Their over/under for wins in vegas is 6, and there are 9/2 odds available if you are brave enough to project the Terps to win more than 6 games. Like Boston College, bowl eligibility should be considered a major victory for this team. They lost a bunch. The opening game at Cal is very likely to be a loss, probably of the blowout variety. They then get two very winnable games against James Madison and Middle Tennessee State, but Maryland should be big underdogs in 5 of their final 9 games. To be bowl eligible, they will need to win against Rutgers, Virginia, at Duke, & Boston College, or pull a big upset for each of those they lose.

This is Maryland, so anything crazy is possible, but poor line play on both offense and defense, combined with a lack of quality depth should keep the Terps home during Bowl Season. The Terps cannot sustain any injuries, particularly on defense. Projection: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

Wake Forest

Wake Forest had one of the best defenses in the nation last season, as profiled above. How they replace the departed defensive players and the play of their offensive line are the major issues facing the Deacons this year.

The best site for Wake Forest coverage is undoubtedly Blogger So Dear, the brainchild of Martin Rickman.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Wake Forest probably won't be better than last year, but they do have some chance. A program like Wake Forest can't replace 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round NFL draft choices on defense in one season, but they do have a 4-year starter at quarterback and stable of runningbacks. Vegas odds indicate it's very likely that Wake wins 7 games or fewer, but finishing 4-4 in conference play is doable, even if the team won't be as good, probably because of easier games against Boston College and Maryland.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Wake has been lucky this off-season and hasn't suffered any major injuries of note.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The offensive line. All five starters return from a group that was horrible last year, albeit somewhat because of injury. Wake must get their running game in order so that QB Riley Skinner doesn't have to force so many passes.

Expect Wake's defense to take a step back this season. Like Boston College, they depended largely on takeaways and those probably won't be there in the same quantity that they were last season. Only 4 starters back on defense puts extra pressure on the offense to win some early games. The game against Stanford should be particularly telling, as the Cardinal can really put up the points. If the offense can carry this team early, they have a shot to reach 8 wins. If the offense struggles, or the defense is worse than expected, Wake will be watching bowl season from their couch. Wake will likely be favored in 7 of their games, and 7 wins seems about right for this squad, as they pull off one upset and drop one game they should win, and take a minor step back from their fantastic 2008 season. Projection: 7-5, (3-5 ACC)

North Carolina State Wolfpack

The 'Pack almost had two different seasons in 2008. WIth and without quarterback Russel Wilson:

Wilson had an incredible 17-1 TD/ INT ratio last year.

via Dr. Saturday

They also were the only team in the conference that featured an offense that was significantly better than their defense (Georgia Tech an FSU also had offenses which were better than their defenses, but not close to the huge discrepancy the Wolfpack had).

With that in mind, we turn to James C. of the sarcastically named Yet Another NC State Sports Blog

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Yes, State will be better this year, and yes, it will show up in the record. The reasons are simple: a capable backup quarterback for Russell Wilson and eight home games on the schedule.

State faltered last season when forced to call upon the quarterbacks on the depth chart behind Wilson. Both Harrison Beck and Daniel Evans were turnover machines; to a person, every State fan that I've talked to knew the PapaJohns.com Bowl was over the moment it was announced Wilson wouldn't return for the second half. Forget the fact that State was up by 11...the game was over at that point.

This season should be different, however. Six-foot-six redshirt freshman QB Mike Glennon -- the best looking quarterback prospect State has had on campus since Philip Rivers -- throws a crisp ball with a quick release and, per teammates, is deceptively quick in the pocket. He's an unknown commodity at this point, but he continues to impress Tom O'Brien in practice. He's made more than one allusion to Matt Ryan when speaking of the young Glennon.

With eight home games and two games against FCS opponents (a last- second change to the schedule required picking up a second FCS opponent), State's record is almost guaranteed to be better this season. Out of conference, I see State going 3-1 against its two FCS foes and South Carolina and Pitt. Going .500 over the remaining conference slate would still put the Pack at 7-5 and into a bowl bid.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

I don't think the ceiling for the Pack is as high as it was before losing All-Conference linebacker Nate Irving. Irving was the driving force behind State's defense last season when healthy, and he stood to be one of the league's best defenders before a car accident put him out of commission for the year. I don't know that any one player on State's roster can replace Irving, but Dwayne Maddox and Terrell Manning are two youngsters that could potentially make some noise in his place.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

State needs a running game. Bad. If Russell Wilson is to remain healthy for the full 12 games, State's running game has to step up and take some pressure off him. While the sight of Wilson scrambling is a nightmarish one for opposing defenses, it also puts the collective hearts of Wolfpack fans in their throats, hoping and praying this isn't the run that puts him out of commission for the rest of the year. So two units must step their games up in '09 -- the running backs and the offensive line. I'm a believer that everything on offense flows through the play of the OL, so if that comes together then I think everything else will fall into place. But bottom line -- State needs a two-pronged attack on offense to succeed this season.

Where I might've gotten brave in predicting nine or maybe even 10 wins prior to Irving's injury, I'm now thinking State will finish the regular season 8-4. That would be a solid step up and set the table for 2010 to be a tremendous season.

While NC State's offense was really a tale of two seasons, their defense was not. State's defense was just bad last season- definitely in the bottom half of the country. WIthout Irving, can they really be better? The signs of improvement at the end of last season were likely a product of playing two bad offenses (Wake and Duke), and two really sloppy offenses (Miami and North Carolina- combined 9 turnovers).

I applaud James for not being a homer in his evaluation and am torn between 8-4 and 7-5. There's a real chance State can start 7-0, but again, it depends on the offense taking a small step forward and the defense taking a big step forward. With Irving, I'd have said 8-4, but without Irving, I expect the 'Pack to lose 4 of their final 5 games, after starting 5-1, as they end up 7-5 (4-4 ACC).

Clemson

There are two fine Clemson websites out there for Clemson fans. First, Block-C (formerly Danny Ford is God), and ClempsonFootball.

Back on June 4th, I wrote this on why Clemson could win the Atlantic Division. It did not go over well with many 'Nole fans.

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 Hold on Noles fans. Let me explain! Where is the value in football? Along the lines and on defense. Quarterbacks are sexy. Linemen are not. This guy will never be on the cover of GQ:

via www.nflgridirongab.com

But he'll be paid millions upon millions of dollars because he weighs as much as a small elephant yet has the feet to win dancing with the stars.

Clemson's recruiting classes in 05-07 ranked 15th, 13th, and 16th nationally. Clemson has 15 starters from those 3 classes. That's 15 physically mature grown men who were very talented to begin with.

And Clemson isn't sexy. They lost their best wide receiver (Aaron kelley) and the 2nd leading all-time rusher in James Davis. They also lost their quarterback. Similar to UGA, people are writing Clemson off because they lost their recognizable players. They did not, however, lose their best players, and that's what I care about.

The Tigers were widely picked to dominate the ACC last year and flopped so poorly that their coach was fired. Clemson was as overhyped last year as they are underhyped this year. To understand why, let's review what happened to Clemson. They got smoked by an Alabama team who nobody realized was elite until much later in the season, then they suffered huge injuries to both lines, particularly on the offensive line where they had 9 different guys start a game! Their QB had serious personality issues, and he was a pocket passer type who suddenly had no pocket. They were 3-1, but then lost three very close games @ Maryland, @ Wake Forest, and against Georgia Tech by an average of less than a field goal. Know what I call that? Bad luck, and it's proven that everyone wins about half of their games decided by 7 points or less. Winning or losing a huge percentage of those is truly, variance. Clemson was 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. If they had gone 3-2, they'd probably be ranked in the top 15 to start this year.

So, did anything good come of their season? You bet. First, they got an excellent defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele to replace an already excellent defensive coordinator in Vic Koenig. Steele was at FSU forever, is considered one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and knows FSU's defensive scheme inside and out. Second, Clemson already played excellent defense last year. They were the 4th best defense in the country. Their points per game numbers don't show it because the offense set them up in horrible field position after horrible field position, but that ultra comprehensive system (linked above) shows their true performance level. Clemson will, have a defense that is in the conversation for "best in America", and I expect as many as 7 of these defenders to eventually be drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Finally, they got a lot of guys experience on the offensive line. Much like FSU, their offensive linemen took their lumps last year and will be much better this year. Clemson's OLine is probably more talented than FSU's, though I am not prepared to call them better. They received far less press because they didn't become so inexperienced until later in the season (brought on by injuries), while the Noles were very young from day one and got a lot of preseason press. This year, they bring back all 5 of their main starters and these guys are very talented and experienced.

At receiver, they return 2 of the top 3, and also have Dye (high 4* Junior), Jones (high 4* soph), McNeal 5* frosh, and Rendrick T aylor (Unproven, but a a greg jones/ cornelious ingram type athlete at tight end). Jamie Harper (another high 4* RB) is more than capable of replacing James Davis at running back to go with CJ Spiller. And at QB, they have Willie Korn and Kyle Parker (5* and 4* respectively). Both are very talented players and the chance is that one WILL play pretty well. Plus, Clemson's staff won't ask them to do much at all. Behind a very talented line, and a great running game (likely), they will be asked to manage the game, throw play action passes, and make plays with their legs. It's been proven that if you play NFL style ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position) in the ACC, you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and will play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.

What about the schedule? Clemson starts off @ GT on a Thursday night, but they play Middle Tennessee state before that, so it's effectively a bye week, they then get BC at home, go @ Maryland, get a bye week, play Wake Forest at home, then travel to Miami. They then come home and get Coastal Carolina (a bye week) before hosting FSU. FSU hasn't won at Clemson since before Chris Rix! They then play @ NCST, and finish at home with Virginia.

Clemson gets de facto bye weeks before their two most difficult games, and draw Virginia out of the Coastal, which is HUGE.

Playing at home, getting a bye week before FSU, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

Clemson 2009 looks to be similar to Ole Miss 2008. In 2007, Ole Miss:

*Went 0-3 in games decided by 4 points or less (the bad luck factor) (Like Clemson)
*Was loaded with talent from a coach who was a great recruiter (like Clemson)
* Fell way short of expectations (like Clemson)
* Fired their coach. (Like Clemson)

In 2008, Ole Miss team:

* Returned 16 starters from those elite recruiting classes, including 9 on defense. (Clemson returns 15, including 8 or 9 on defense)
* Had an elite defense, especially their defensive line. (Much like Clemson)
* Had a new coach to energize the program, including quality coordinators. (Like Clemson)
* Brought back an offensive line comprised almost entirely of talented upperclassmen (Like Clemson)
* Had a distinct lack of name skill-position talent (Like Clemson, except spiller)

And won the cotton bowl.

The point of this exercise is that just because you haven't heard of the talent on a squad doesn't mean that the talent is not there. Sometimes all it can take is a new coach or a lack of really bad luck to allow that talent to shine through. Ole Miss won games with excellent defense, and a 5* QB who had tons of time behind a talented and more experienced OLine, despite Jevan Snead being a first time starter.

Since I wrote that, a few things have happened to Clemson. They have remained mostly healthy, and named baseball star Kyle Parker their starting quarterback. The defense should againbe among the nation's best as they return almost everyone, including maybe the Nation's best defensive line. Playing at home against FSU, getting a bye week before the 'Noles (and a de facto bye week before Georgia Tech), and getting to play UVA (2 tough games against the Coastal Division) gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

The key will come down to how Clemson plays in 4 key ACC games. @ Georgia Tech, @ Miami, v. Florida State, and @ NC State. Provided they stay healthy on the offensive line, the offense should be improved.

Projection: 9-3 (5-3 ACC).

Florida State

FSU is covered here extensively. The Seminole offense was the best in the conference last year, and the defense was above average in the conference and top 25 nationally.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

FSU should be significantly better this season, but their record might not reflect it. FSU plays the toughest schedule in the nation, per Phil Steele and numerous other sources.

Sep. 7	Miami-FL	8, ESPN
Sep. 12	Jacksonville St.	6, ESPN360.com
Sep. 19	at BYU	7, VERSUS
Sep. 26	South Florida	TBA
Oct. 3	at Boston College	TBA
Oct. 10	Georgia Tech	TBA
Oct. 22	at North Carolina	8, ESPN
Oct. 31	NC State	TBA
Nov. 7	at Clemson	TBA
Nov. 14	at Wake Forest	TBA
Nov. 21	Maryland	TBA
Nov. 28	at Florida	3:30, CBS

It's doubtful any team would run through that slate unscathed, including the National Championship favorites. The 2009 FSU team would likely win 1 or 2 more games against last year's schedule. Against this current schedule, it is anyone's guess.

FSU lost fullbacks Seddrick Holloway and Marcus Sims to attrition, but neither projected to be a serious contributor as FSU moves to more two tight-end sets and away from the fullback.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

The interior of the defensive line. FSU's run defense was horrible last season.

The defense cannot allow opposing offenses to hold onto the ball forever like some did last season. Getting the ball back to the offense will be key for FSU, as the offense will wear out opposing defenses.

Projection: FSU goes 9-3, 6-2 in the ACC, losing to UF, Clemson, and one other team in conference.

Coastal Division

Vegas says 4 teams have a legit shot to win this division: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, and North Carolina. Duke and Virginia do not and neither have a legitimate chance to make a bowl game.

Let's start in reverse order, with VTech up first.

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech won the ACC last year and have won the Coastal division for almost every year it has existed. We have two ACC writers: GobblerCountry and College Game Balls. Take it away boys:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

GC: We'll be better and it will show in our record. He people over-hyping the Hokies this preseason forget that they're a team that lost four games last season. Tech may not win the ACC this year, but they won't lose four regular season games, either.

The talent on the offense has improved by leaps and bounds. It's just up to our offensive coordinator to utilize that talent. Other than quarterback, I think this team has better talent across the board than the 1999 team. But that team had a true difference-maker at quarterback.

If Tyrod Taylor turns into anything resembling a difference-maker, we'll be a special team.

CGB: If we aren't better, then I want my proverbial money back. 2008 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Hokies and lo and behold we win ten games (again), the ACC and the Orange Bowl. The only key players missing from ‘08 in ‘09 are DE Orion Martin, CB Macho Harris, LBs Purnell Sturdivant, Brent Warren and sigh QB Sean Glennon. With Bud Foster in charge I have faith we'll be able to overcome the losses on defense and the offense will be able to do more than enough to win ACC games.

As for our record, I am calling for us to win 11 games which is one better than last year. That's assuming we make it to and win the ACC Championship. That's why our trip to Atlanta is so crucial. And I'm not talking about the game versus Alabama, but our return trip against Georgia Tech. That's the must win game on our schedule.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

GC: We lost our returning leading rusher, battering ram and bell cow in Darren Evans. Without him, the Hokies no longer have someone they can rely on in short-yardage situations.

The newcomers expected to have an impact are led by Ryan Williams, who I expect to get the bulk of the carries by the middle of the season. Williams' debut is the most anticipated by Hokie fans since that of Kevin Jones. He's supposed to be a home run hitter who can break any play for six points.

CGB: As far as the Hokies are concerned these two questions go hand-in-hand. At the beginning of camp Darren Evans, our only returning running back with any major carries, tore his ACL and was zonked for the year. Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Josh Oglesby and Tony Gregory are grinding it out in camp to see who is going to carry the rock come Bama time. They have a whopping 38 collegiate carries among them, 100% belonging to practice-killa-game-chilla Oglesby.

Williams and Wilson are the big play threats missing from the backfield over the past couple of seasons and because of the hype surrounding their recruitment most Hokies want to see them leading the ground attack. So far replacing Evans has gone as well as filling out a TPS Report. Williams is a me-ist and Oglesby and Wilson suffered their own nagging injuries. Ultimately, they'll get their yards but none of these guys are going to punish defenses like Evans did.

Both Sergio Render (Phil Steele #1 guard) and Jason Worilds (Preseason ACC 1st Team) had off-season shoulder surgery that forced them to miss spring ball. They're both healthy and practicing, but worth keeping an eye on.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

GC: Just like every other year for the Hokies, it's the offensive line. They gave up the more sacks than any other ACC team even though they had a mobile quarterback under center for most of their games. The run blocking came along by the end of last year when Tech rolled up big rushing numbers against BC and Cincinnati. Hopefully that momentum can continue into 2009 and we can get better pass blocking.

CGB: Tyrod Taylor, our young but seasoned receivers Danny Coale, Jarrett Boykin, Dyrell Roberts, our offensive line, whoever replaces Darren Evans at running back and finally the entire offensive coaching staff Billy Hite, Curt Newsome and Bryan Stinespring need to get their act in check if we are going to make some national noise. Yes I am that frustrated with our offense over the last four seasons. The only offensive player I left off the list is TE Greg Boone because he catches balls, knocks defenders on their butt and takes snaps out of the Wild Turkey. He does it all excellently and if necessary he should be called on to gain our tough yards.

Projection: 9-3 (6-2 ACC). The Hokies hopes for a national title are unrealistic. They are in the group of very good but not elite ACC teams. They'll be recognized as the best ACC team, but that's because of their schedule- they avoid FSU and Clemson (the Atlantic's two best teams), and their road games are @ Duke, @ East Carolina, @ Maryland, and @ Virginia (only one of those teams should make a bowl game). Virginia Tech isn't significantly better than abut 4 other ACC teams, but their ACC schedule is far and away the easiest of any ACC team, with all of their tough games coming at home (except Georgia Tech).

Georgia Tech Yellowjackets

Georgia Tech surprised everyone last year under new Head Coach Paul Johnson. They have an excellent offensive attack that forces the defense to be very disciplined and defend every inch of the field. This is a team that put up 40+ on Georgia and 30+ on a number of other good defenses.

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Your writers are Winfield Featherson, Bird, and Dane, of From The Rumble Seat

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

Our team will definitely be better in all aspects offensively - QB play, running backs, wide receivers, and line play. Historically, Paul Johnson's teams always increase their production in both the passing and the running game during his second year as head coach. Our defense will have a gaping hole on the defensive line (except for standout end Derrick Morgan) but it will be greatly strengthened by a strong corps of linebackers and a veteran secondary.

Despite improvements in all positions minus the D-line, the ACC makes for a helluva conference slate alongside three SEC OOC games. It's possible that GT's record may not improve on last year's 9 wins but the team will improve by leaps and bounds. However, anything short of 9 wins would be a big disappointment for a majority of the optimistic Yellow Jacket faithful.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

First off, a majority of our injuries were minor and not season-threatening. The major set back was obviously Jaybo Shaw, our competent backup to Josh Nesbitt. He'll be succeeded by a lot of raw redshirt and true freshmen if CPJ decides to put a medical redshirt on Shaw. Roddie Jones' wrist injury set him back as far as contact drills go but it shouldn't limit his playing time and overall effectiveness. And hopefully all of our LB's will be good as gold come Jacksonville State though Kyle Jackson continues to have problems with his foot.

The best newcomer is definitely going to be Jarrard Tarrant. He had his assault charges dropped against him in February that kept him off the 2008 squad. Tarrant brings speed to the secondary and competency at punt returns - a HUGE PROBLEM for GT since Gailey's tenure. Look for Tarrant to play a key role on defense and in the field position battle.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

With Jaybo Shaw out, Tevin Washington and David Sims must prove themselves as comparable backups. This will be trial by fire as they will certainly be used in games. The kicking game, though minor in Paul Johnson's system, must stay strong. Scott Blair will probably be limited to only PAT's which will keep his leg from dying half way through the season. Various questions also surround our defensive line as we lost multiple players to the NFL.

Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC). GTech's schedule is very tough, with road games at Miami and Florida State. 9-3 would not surprise me.

Miami Hurricanes

A young Miami team went 7-6 last season behind an emerging offense and a poor defense. They then fired their offensive coordinator. Go figure. See the diagram above (under FSU) and look at how bad Miami's run defense was. Allowing 5 yards per rush attempt won't win many games. If Miami is to contend for the coastal division championship, they must shore up their run defense issues.

On offense, Miami has new coordinator Mark Wjipple, who will run a pro-style offense with lots of passes to the tight ends and running backs, QB Jacorry Harriss, RB's Cooper and James, and a ton of talented receivers including Aldarious Johnson and LaRon Byrd. Miami's only question on offense is their offensive line, which played poorly in 2008. If they are better, Miami will challenge FSU and Georgia Tech for the conference's top offense (and possibly for the division).

Unlike Virginia Tech, Miami plays both Clemson and FSU. They also play Oklahoma. But Miami is also very talented and if they beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, they have a shot at the division. Prediction: Miami will be a better team in 2009, but their record will again be 7-5 (4-4 ACC) due to a tough schedule.

For much more in-depth canes coverage, visit 7thFloorBlog.com

North Carolia Tarheels

North Carolina is doing a great rebuilding job under Butch Davis, who is bringing renewed energy to Chapel Hill, along with a big increase in talent.

On offense, Carolina lost all of their receivers (including two NFL guys), and their offensive line is very shaky. They go return their quarterback in T.J. Yates and a variety of solid runners, led by Shawn Droughn. Can they replace their lost wide receivers? Doubtful, but if the O-Line gels quickly they could use their running game to make up the difference.

Carolina had one of the better defenses in the nation last year, and should again excel on that side of the ball. They boast a huge front-7 which is excellent at stopping the run, allowing the secondary to play the pass.

Projection: 8-4 (4-4 ACC) UNC runs their weak non-conference slate with easy, wins at home against Duke and Virginia, and taking two of: @ GTech, FSU, @ Virginia Tech, Miami, @ Boston College, and @ NCST.

Virginia

Your writer is Brendan of From Old Virginia. Take it away, Brendan:

Will your team be better than last year? Why? Will their record reflect this? Why?

I think I will be surprised if the answers to these questions aren't a unanimous yes, except for maybe from the reigning ACC champs. It's that time of year. Yes, we will be better, and it has everything to do with the offensive side of the ball. We have a new coordinator who is almost guaranteed to be an improvement because the old one couldn't have been much worse. We have two (semi-)new quarterbacks, practically a whole new set of receivers, a new playbook with a new system, and hopefully a new and improved Mikell Simpson to carry the ball.

But what's new isn't half of why I'm looking forward to seeing the offense. It has more to do with what's older, and more experienced: the offensive line. A new and inexperienced line is a surefire formula for underachieving; ours spent nearly all of last season learning to play together and gelling as a unit, and four of five starters return. There's the right mix of new blood and experience on this offense to really open some eyes this year.

The ACC has been racked hard by injuries in the off-season. Which players did your team lose and how will they replace them if at all? On the flip side, who are the newcomers expected to step up, if any?

Oh God - this question is here just for the sake of jinxing things, I just know it. Hopefully the football gods are not listening right at this moment, but Virginia hasn't had any significant, season-ending health issues - yet. Transfers and academic losses include defensive ends Andrew Devlin (formerly a tight end) and Kevin Crawford, tight end Rod Wheeler, and safety Rico Bell. There's also two freshman offensive linemen who didn't make it to the fall: Cody Wallace and Morgan Moses.

None were expected to start this year, and several of those wouldn't even have been on the two-deep. The depth at defensive end took a major hit though, and there will be some true freshmen who have to step up. Will Hill, our lone early enrollee, will be one, and there will probably be others. Most of the above losses are losses for good - these aren't like Jameel Sewell who had to spend a year getting eligible. The exceptions are Wallace and Moses, the freshmen. Wallace is probably a longshot at best to return, but Moses will begin his prep school career shortly and Virginia fans will be following it closely because Moses is three-hundred-thirty-twelve pounds of major-league talent.

As far as newcomers go, as with any team there will be plenty of former backups moving into a starting role. But there are three freshmen expected to make a major impact. WR Tim Smith is a tremendous talent as well as a true freshman and will be on the field from Day 1. In the backfield, redshirt frosh Torrey Mack is expected to share the load at running back, and classmate Steve Greer is a projected starter at inside linebacker. If you had to name three UVA freshmen to watch out for, it's far and away those three.

Which returning player (or position group ) must step their game up in order for your team to overachieve?

I'll take this to mean, which player was a regular last year and needs to improve his game? Imaginary players are well-known to be fatal to coaching careers (original question posed was poorly phrased), and anyway we have basically an entire linebacking corps that is new to the starting gig. But new starters always need to step it up. Two players come to mind. On defense, there's DE Matt Conrath. He showed a lot of promise last year as a freshman and played very well as freshmen go. But the brand-new linebacking corps needs help from both front and back if they're going to be successful. With Clint Sintim gone, we need a pass rush threat, and Conrath is the guy everyone's looking at to consistently provide it. The defensive line needs to be huge to take pressure off the linebackers, and it starts with Conrath.

On offense, Mikell Simpson had a terrific 2007 - just ask Maryland. But he was having a really awful 2008 until it was cut short by a broken collarbone. He's now in an offense tailor-made to his talents. He's always been at his best in space, and excels when he's the target of screen passes and such. The offense will get him the ball with room to run - he must take advantage.

I expect UVA to narrowly miss out on a bowl game, going 5-7 (2-6 ACC). If they spring an upset against TCU, Maryland, or Georgia Tech, the Cavs will be bowling. But that also assumes they don't have any letdowns, which is probably unrealistic, so 5-7 it is.

Duke

The Blue Devils lost a ton from the surprising 2008 team. No team lost more letterman than Duke. Duke should continue to have one of the worst offenses in the country, and will be horrible running the ball. The defense should be slightly below average, which for Duke, is acceptable. Prediction: 2-10 (0-8). This is a major rebuilding year for Duke despite the recognizeable name at quarterback.

General ACC

Brandon Rink-On of http://ontheb-rink.com/blog answered the questions for us from a different perspective. Enjoy:

Every team believes they are a little better going into the season, but who will make the most improvement from season-to-season this year in the ACC? Georgia Tech? I don't know-last season was pretty good for
them. Clemson? Well, there are just too many unknowns there. My pick is Miami. They were a lot better team than they showed(or were coached) last season and should be more impressive this season. The
Canes will be led by a nasty defense that will wreak havoc on the Coastal. And the new offensive scheme has to be better than whatever their previous OC Turner was doing(which was?).

In the record, it will not quite translate into a division title, but they will be in contention(which is more than you can say for the last few years).

Virginia Tech is an easy one with the loss of one Darren Evans and key newcomer in Ryan Williams, but another team has caught my eye in the offseason. Let's say my team is Clemson, they lose two offensive
lineman, Barry Humphries to transfer and J.K. Jay to a back injury, and have a couple guys dinged up like their only real returning WR in Jacoby Ford. The starting five on the line is pretty solid for the Tigers, but

Preveiwing TCU Opponents: Clemson Tigers

Jeremy Mauss — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 20:03:18 -0000

Perhaps this is the year that Clemson is able to live up to their lofty rankings. 2009 should be a much needed relief from the 2008 season where the Tigers were to contend for the BCS crown. This year the expectations are not as high as they are in the others receiving votes category in the coaches poll and ranked thirty-second by Rivals.

They also are projected to finish second in the Atlantic division behind Florida State, so there is no target on Clemson this season. They do have the potential ACC player of the year in running back CJ Spiller, however he has never rushed for 1,000 yards in a single season. His closest was his freshman year where we raked up 938 yards on the ground, however with Spiller's explosiveness he has the ability to make big plays. Look for this year to be his best now that he is not splitting carries as he did in 2008.

Besides Spiller the Tigers have a lot to make up for on offense with losses of QB Cullen Harper, RB James Davis, and WR Aaron Key who was one of the best receivers in ACC history.

The offensive line has talent with all five starters returning from last years dreadful line that broke in four new lineman. The line is easily most improved in the ACC, and should definitely be one of their strengths in 2009. According to the people who cover the ACC more closely then we do here the Clemson offensive line is ranked in the top third of the ACC.

The Tigers will need a good offensive line to help propel CJ Spiller surpass 1,000 yards, and help break in a new quarterback which will be either redshirt frosh Kyle Parker or Willie Korn. The early leader from spring is Parker but the final decision will during fall camp that is underway. Now all they need is a receiver who can replace Aaron Key who had 67 receptions, 722 yards, and four scores.

While the offense may have some wrinkles to work out the defense returns over half the starters from last year and the new starters had significant playing time. This defense finished second in scoring defense, and fourth in total defense in the ACC. Expect more of the same with improvement added. The reason the Tiger defense was so good was within their front seven.

They only had 14 sacks on the year but they were very good in run defense by not allowing them to get past the line of scrimmage; the defense had 85 tackles for loss which was third in the ACC. Clemson was fifth in total rushing yards allowed which sounds not too impressive however they were the only team in the ACC to allow under double digits rushing scores, by only allowing seven.

For how good their rushing defense was and has the potential to be the pass defense was even better and was third in passing yards allowed, but had 19 picks. The team does replace both every down players at the safety, but the new starters arae DeAndre McDaniel who is moving from corner to safety, and then there is senior Sadat Chambers.

Both of these safeties should not have a drop off in production from last year in terms of production, but the two corners who are in the race for the Thorpe Award with Chris Chancellor and Crezdon Butler who have started for the past two years will make this possibly the best secondary in the ACC.

Expect this Clemson team to be better from last year, because the national hype is not hoveirng over the team, but a trip to the ACC title game is not out of the question.

Clemson, Michigan State, and Pitt All Look to Improve in '09

T Kyle King — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 02:16:43 -0000

The end of the College World Series, probably literally and certainly practically, marks the end of intercollegiate athletics until Labor Day weekend. That gives us a lot of time to await the arrival of college football season with mounting anxiety and anticipation, producing a surfeit of nervous energy as we speculate about the autumn that is to come.

Although I’ve already begun giving thought to my preseason BlogPoll ballot, the recent arrival of the preview magazines has made me keenly conscious of the fact that I’m not sure any team outside of Austin, Gainesville, Los Angeles, or Norman will be any good at all (whatever team I rank No. 5 is likely to be a very distant fifth behind the Florida Gators, Texas Longhorns, Southern California Trojans, and Oklahoma Sooners); nevertheless, every game must produce a winner and a loser, so I am bringing you the first installment of my early forecasts in the form of . . .

Three Teams I’m Buying in 2009

Clemson Tigers: Forget about James Davis and Cullen Harper. As we in Bulldog Nation learned the hard way last year, games are won and lost in the trenches, and C.J. Spiller will have lots of room to run behind an offensive line that returns five starters. Defensively, the Country Gentlemen lose one of four starters on the line, one of three starters in the linebacking corps, and one of four starters in the secondary. Anyone who doubts former Tiger receivers coach and Alabama Crimson Tide player Dabo Swinney needs to remember this fact: the last three times Clemson chose a head coach by promoting a former ‘Bama player who already was on the Orange and Purple staff, the Tigers hired Frank Howard, Charley Pell, and Danny Ford.

Michigan State Spartans: Once you get past the Ohio State Buckeyes, you find a power vacuum in the Big Ten. (Insert your "giant sucking sound" jokes here.) The Penn State Nittany Lions will take a step back from last year, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Wisconsin Badgers have fallen off after appearing to emerge as challengers for conference hegemony, and the Michigan Wolverines have dropped off the edge of the earth. Mark Dantonio’s Spartans appear poised to fill the void, at long last shedding their "choke artist" image by winning three of their last four regular-season games in 2008. With no Ohio State on the schedule, Michigan State has a solid shot at a second-place finish in the league.

Pittsburgh Panthers: I can’t believe I’m actually believing in these guys, but, in a depleted Big East, someone has to come out on top, and it might as well be Pitt. Granted, we may be looking at another one of those 2004 tiebreakers-decide-which-team-wins-the-right-to-get-throttled-in-the-bowl-game scenarios, but the Cincinnati Bearcats lost everyone on defense, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights lost everyone you’ve ever heard of, the South Florida Bulls have shown no ability to close the deal, the West Virginia Mountaineers lost Pat White and kept Bill Stewart, and Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers bring back eight offensive starters and seven defensive first-teamers from a squad that won nine regular-season games in 2008.

Did I really just pick Clemson, Michigan State, and Pitt to be better in 2009? Son of a gun, I just did. I am so ready for some football. . . .

Go ‘Dawgs!

Plow Horses - The Case Against Penn State

Bama Hawkeye — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:07:54 -0000

The case against Penn State is based upon an idea that I've had brewing for the better part of two months. Each year, the preseason picks come out with surprising unanimity. Sure, some might have Oklahoma at 2 and others might have Texas at 2, but it's not like there is a pollster who is picking Kentucky to finish in the Top 10. And yet, last year a team coming off a 7-6 season, in the same division as the defending national champion, with a road game at the defending champion, ended up 12-2 and #6 (Alabama). I'm not picking Kentucky to pull that off. But...if all you do is think like the group, all you'll get is the group's answers. Picking which near .500 team will end up in the Top 10 is too tough for my simple mind. Sure, I can see Notre Dame, Colorado, Clemson, North Carolina St., or Minnesota pulling it off, but I wouldn't predict which one (though I listed them in my guess of likelihood). However, I think that it is safe to predict that a BCS team that finished with 5-7 wins last year will end up in the Top 10 this year.

But picking which team is being overrated - which team is a flop waiting to happen? That seems easier. Last year, I thought that Clemson was being given far too much love as a Top 15/borderline Top 10 team at the start of the season. This wasn't because of a lack of faith in Tommy Bowden. Instead, I looked for my personal recipe for over-ranking: too many show ponies and not enough plow horses.

JoePa finds out how this ties in with Penn State after the break...

When I clerked as a summer associate at a large firm in a Big Ten city, I had a wonderful experience working with a labor and employment attorney who handled union negotiations for a number of major employers. One of the things he said stuck with me in my practice, and is relevant here as well. "Some lawyers," he said, "you might think of as show ponies. They look good when you put them in a hearing or in front of a jury. But, they don't win because they're good show ponies. They win because they're better plow horses. For every day that they get to show off how good they are, there are twenty days that no one sees in which they just have to do the dirty work. That's why they win. They win because they're plow horses."

When I see a team that returns its quarterback and skill position players, but loses the offensive line, I immediately think about show ponies and plow horses. On the defense, I look to the front seven to see what's coming back. I don't trust a team that has too many holes there (unless that team has a mascot that rhymes with "Grojans." Until proven differently, these rules do not apply to them.)

Let's look at Clemson in the Summer of 2008. Returning quarterback? Yes. Cullen Harper was a Senior who was second team All-ACC the season before. Returning Skill Players? Yes. There was first team All-ACC RB James Davis, who was backed up by speedster and second team All-ACC RB C.J. Spiller. Throw in four returning starters at WR and TE (Clemson operated out of a three WR formation as its base), and you have a ridiculous amount of talent coming back. Give those pretty looking show ponies a BCS bid!

Or...we can look at their plow horses. The D-Line actually wasn't in too bad of shape, returning three of four. It was the linebackers that were the problem. The lone returning backer was kicked off the team over the summer. That meant four new faces in the front seven. Not great, but not awful. No, the awful part was on the other side of the ball - four new starters for a line that had problems the year before. None of the starters were seniors. That's a huge red flag. Where are the experienced plow horses? Send them to a lower-tier bowl!

You'll notice Clemson's Offensive Line in the background. It's busy not blocking.

Sure, the truth (due to a fantastic fan base) is somewhere in between, but here's the thing. Experience matters, but it matters in some places more than others. The three positions where it matters most are at QB, OL and D-Front Seven. I can only offer my reasoning as to why. Quarterbacks and linebackers are thinking positions. The more you've seen in-game conditions, the more prepared you are to properly react. The O-Line and D-Line require size and repetition. By nature, a man will grow bigger and stronger between the ages of 20 and 22 (and if a lineman doesn't, that's the strength coach's issue). More than that, a Sophomore isn't going to have the repetitions and experience that the Senior will.

So let's look at Penn State.

Skill Positions: Daryll Clark was very good last year. He's back for a 6^th season. Evan Royster was very good last year. He's back for a second year starting. Those are two impressive show ponies. The experience isn't there at WR, as the top three from last year have moved on (Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined for 132 catches for 1,932 yards and 17 touchdowns). When you really look at it, Penn State is a little light on show ponies. Clark and Royster deserve the accolades, but I'd be concerned about the loss of the entire wide receiver corps.

Defensive Front Seven: Depending on how you count it, you either have three or four starters returning. The linebacking corps will be very good, but the rush ends, including first round draft pick Aaron Maybin, need to be replaced. I feel compelled to mention that the front seven better quickly learn how to get good pressure, because the ENTIRE secondary will be new. That's seven or eight new starters on the defensive side of the ball. That would make me nervous.

Offensive Line: Last year's offensive line had three All-Big Ten selections. It was the best line in the Big Ten and one of the best at Penn State in the last twenty years. They're gone. This will be a problem. Phil Steele compiled the data of returning starts by offensive linemen. I love these numbers. Obviously, it doesn't mean that the team with more returning starts will beat the team with fewer starts, but it does give hard data for my plow horses. Any school with more than 90 starts returning is in the Top 20% of Division I. Any school with fewer than 50 starts returning is in the bottom 25% of Division I. Everyone else is in the middle, where experience is unlikely be a strength or weakness.

Big Ten - Returning Offensive Line Starts
Minnesota	102
Iowa	99
Indiana	84
Michigan	76
Purdue	68
Northwestern	64
Ohio Sate	62
Michigan State	52
Illinois	49
Wisconsin	49
Penn State	39

Not good for Penn State, wouldn't you say?

So what do I see for Penn State? I envision Evan Royster swallowed up before he gets a chance to move out of the backfield. I picture Daryll Clark constantly throwing on the run to new receivers. I see a new secondary picked apart after the front seven fails to get pressure. But, I still see Penn State picking up 7 or 8 wins because of the schedule. They'll breeze through their four non-con games (Akron, Temple, Syracuse, Eastern Illinois...seriously?). But, I see the Lions losing at least four of their conference games. I think that they'll split with Iowa and Minnesota in Happy Valley. They'll blow out Indiana, but they'll lose to the OSU. On the road, they could lose each one. They won't, but it's in the realm of possibility. I'll take losses at the Big House and East Lansing and wins in Evanston and Madison Cham-bana (I was thinking Illinois and typing Wisconsin. My bad). That equals 8-4, with two losses in their last three weeks (in what will still be considered a weak Big Ten). I bet that ends up outside of the Top 25. I still see this comment being true.

Tomahawk Nation presents "For Entertainment Purposes Only 2009": The Pre-Season Edition. Florida State is the Atlantic Favorite, but the Value Lies with Clemson

FSUncensored — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:08:19 -0000

If you're a sports fan, you know that nothing is guaranteed. The inherent drama of sport is what makes viewing so compelling. Sports are about probabilities, not absolutes. Guy's offering guaranteed victories on seemingly evenly matched teams are fools. When we evaluate a team, we attempt to ascertain just how good that team is. When sports fans talk about a prime-time matchup, they often make a prediction as to the outcome. They weigh the positives and negatives of each team, add in some other factors like injuries, home field advantage, weather, or jersey color. And it's even possible to make a great evaluation and still be wrong. Any number of non-skill factors could swing a game, like fumble recoveries, or whether an interception is returned for a touchdown. When I handicap a game, I try to answer the question "which outcome would happen more often?" I don't deal in absolutes, I deal in value. Understanding the Vegas line can offer a lot of insight into a team's true talent level.

With that, I welcome you to a season-long feature I like to call "For Entertainment Purposes Only." Last year, 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

[Editor's Note: This post discusses wagering but has a lot of football information, specifically about the 'Noles divisional opponents]

Yesterday, some of the major online casinos released their odds for the college football season. If it were legal, you could wager on who teams to win their division or conference. I provided a few of my selections, and they inspired a lot of discussion in the comment section. Inside, you'll see what got everyone so hot and bothered, and I'll give some further analysis on the initial wagers in the 2009's first edition of "For Entertainment Purposes Only!"

So, those picks...

If you find gambling tougher to understand than Chinese, don't worry, Understanding Sports Odds. In relevant part:

Step 1: Identify the type of line you are looking at. All online sports books offer you the chance to have your lines in an "American" or "Money line" version. If I were you, I would use this as my standard. An "American" line uses either a + or - before a number to indicate odds. So a -120 and a +120 are two very different odds on a team... I will explain the differences shortly. Two other less common variations exist: decimal odds and fractional odds (these are superior but Americans have trouble understanding for whatever reason, so in the interest of simplicity, I will not get into them)

Step 2: Identify the favorite. Lines with a "-" before the number (i.e. -200) indicate the favorite. A -200 should be read as: "For every $200 wagered, I win $100." When there is a negative sign, the line should always be read with relation to 100. That does not mean you have to bet that much, it's just easiest to understand! When a + sign is present, just reverse the reading, always keeping reference to 100:

Examples:

1) -150: For every $150 wagered, I win $100 ($50 wagered would win $33).
2) +300: For every $100 wagered, I win $300 ($50 wagered would win $150).
3) 100 (can be either +/-): For every $100 wagered, I win $100 ($50 wagered would win $50).
4) Most commonly: -110: For every $110 wagered, I win $100.

You see "4" most commonly because the extra $10 you have to bet to win $100 is called the "juice" that the books keep as a fee for making the line available to you. Think of it as a commission.

The most important thing you can teach yourself early on is: "Just because the books assign one side to be the favorite (even large, -200 or -300, favorites), does not mean that they will win." We have all seen favorites get upset, and it is important to avoid the temptation of finding comfort in the fact that the lines makers put one team as a favorite.

Got that? Good.

Here were the opening odds (I assume they have changed by now, much like stock prices would, but we'll visit what those changes mean for certain team's fortunes next week). Go ahead and look 'em over. Remember to use the more accurate method of picking games (proportional win shares).

To win the Atlantic Division
Boston College 5000
Clemson 350
Florida State 120
Maryland 800
North Carolina State 200
Wake Forest 300

To win the Coastal Division
Duke 2000
Georgia Tech 250
Miami 300
North Carolina 250
Virginia 1200
Virginia Tech 175

To win the Big 12 North
Colorado 500
Iowa State 2500
Kansas 175
Kansas State 650
Missouri 300
Nebraska 175

To win the Big 12 South
Baylor 1500
Oklahoma 150
Oklahoma State 600
Texas 100
Texas A&M 2000
Texas Tech 850

To win the SEC EAST
Florida -800
Georgia 500
Kentucky 2500
South Carolina 800
Tennessee 1200
Vanderbilt 5000

To win the SEC WEST
Alabama 200
Arkansas 650
Auburn 500
LSU 200
Mississippi 350
Mississippi State 1500

To win the ACC
Boston College 8000
Clemson 1000
Duke 5000
Florida State 250
Georgia Tech 650
Maryland 2000
Miami 500
North Carolina 500
North Carolina State 800
Virginia 2500
Virginia Tech 250
Wake Forest 1200

To win the Big East
Cincinnati 800
Connecticut 800
Louisville 1500
Pittsburgh 250
Rutgers 500
South Florida 250
Syracuse 5000
West Virginia 250

To win the Big 10
Illinois 600
Indiana 5000
Iowa 500
Michigan 1000
Michigan State 500
Minnesota 2000
Northwestern 2000
Ohio State 150
Penn State 250
Purdue 7500
Wisconsin 800

To win the Big 10
Baylor 2000
Colorado 1500
Iowa State 7500
Kansas 250
Kansas State 3000
Missouri 800
Nebraska 250
Oklahoma 150
Oklahoma State 800
Texas 150
Texas A&M 3000
Texas Tech 1200

To win the PAC10
Arizona 3000
Arizona State 1800
California 300
Oregon 300
Oregon State 800
Stanford 3000
UCLA 1000
Southern Cal -300
Washington 7500
Washington State 10000

To win the SEC
Alabama 300
Arkansas 1500
Auburn 800
Florida -300
Georgia 650
Kentucky 5000
LSU 200
Mississippi 500
Mississippi State 7500
South Carolina 1200
Tennessee 2000
Vanderbilt 7500

Take a look, figure out what you like, and we'll talk about what I went with. Ready? Here ya go:

Clemson to win the ACC +1000
VTech to win the Coastal +175
Nebraska to win the Big 12 North +175
Ole Miss to win the West: +350
Rutgers to win the Big East +500

I'll take them in order from least controversial to most controversial:

Rutgers to win the Big East +500 Rutgers is probably the 3rd best big east team, but they get 5 conference home games, their conference road games are @ UCONN (lost everything, unlikely to make a bowl), @ Louisville (again, terrible), and @ Syracuse (one of the worst teams in all of college football). Because they draw all their tough games at home, and because they get Cincinnati in their first game (the bearcats lost 10 of 11 defensive starters), they are a decent pick to win the division. That their odds are better than Pitt, USF, or WVU is a bonus. Again, scheduling matters. Also, they are strong along the lines despite lacking sexy named-skill position talent. There's value in +500.

Nebraska to win the Big 12 North +175 This is a schedule pick. The odds say that Nebraska and Kansas are the two favorites. This is a case of Vegas anticipating the public's laziness. It's a smart move on their part. Nebraska has by FAR the best offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12 North, and hey have excellent DB's as well. Kansas has terrible defensive linemen and linebackers. But the crux of this pick is again, scheduling.

Nebraska has: @ Missouri (who lost EVERYTHING, after a double bye week), Texas Tech at home, Iowa State, @ Baylor, Oklahoma, @ Kansas, Kansas State (the team that will finish 2nd in the north), and @ Colorado.

Compare that to Kansas' murderous schedule: Iowa State, @ Colorado, Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas, Missouri.

Nebraska dodges Texas and gets the rebuilding teams EARLY, before they can rebuild. Kansas plays Texas and has to play the rebuilding teams late (Missouri).

I wasn't sure I'd play this one, but then I saw that Colorado lost its best player (WR Smith, transfer). That sealed the deal.

VTech to win the Coastal +175 Virginia Tech is probably the best team in the Coastal division. I don't think there's much separation between them, GT, UNC, and Miami, and to be honest, I really am not comfortable calling them the best. That said, let's again go to the schedule, specifically each of the fout team's three Atlantic division games:

VT: Boston College, @ Maryland, NCST

GT: Clemson, @ FSU, Wake Forest

Miami: @ FSU, Clemson, @ Wake

UNC: FSU, @ BC, @ NCST

I'm very confident in saying Clemson and Florida State are the most talented teams in the Atlantic division. VT avoids both. They get NCST in Blacksburg. The other three contenders have difficult Atlantic division schedules. Thus, VTech is the pick.

Ole Miss to win the West: +350 Ole Miss is this year's sexy pick. Our readers remember that I was on them last year, even after they lost @ Wake Forest. I think the public is a year late on this team, but I still see value here. I don't believe Ole Miss is the best team in the SEC West. I think Bama is better and that Bama will have the 2nd best defense in the country (UF #1). This might come as a shock, but again, this is a schedule play. Ole Miss doesn't play UGA or UF. They get Bama, LSU, Arkansas, and Tennessee all at home. their conference road games rad at South Carolina (rebuilding year, and they get them early), @ Vanderbilt (not a likely bowl team), @ Auburn (should be better but not a ton better), and @ Mississippi State (awful).

I dismiss LSU's chances to win the division because they play @ UGA and also play UF, which Ole Miss and Bama do not play. This comes down to Ole Miss v. Bama. Ole Miss is +350, Bama is +200. I do not think that Bama is twice as likely to win this division as is Ole Miss, and thus I select Ole Miss as a value selection, despite not believing they will actually win the division.

Now to the pick y'all care about:

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 Hold on Noles fans. Let me explain! Where is the value in football? Along the lines and on defense. Quarterbacks are sexy. Linemen are not. This guy will never be on the cover of GQ:

via www.nflgridirongab.com

But he'll be paid millions upon millions of dollars because he weighs as much as a small elephant yet has the feet to win dancing with the stars and that wins games.

And Vegas has to overrate Quarterbacks, Wide receivers, and running backs because they have to create betting lines that don't make them susceptible to overexposure to certain highly public wagers. And where does the public form their opinion? The media, and most importantly, ESPN. And who produces content for ESPN? Writers, most of which don't necessarily scout these teams very well. And why should they? The average person doesn't want to know about a lineman. They want the running back.

Why else doesn't the public know about linemen? Sportswriters don't know what to look for. As you'll see in an upcoming piece (later this month) about FSU center Ryan McMahon, who is largely a product of FSU's media hype and playing as a freshman. ESPN's Bruce Feldman also comments on this:

If one coach really makes a strong case to some media members, he can get a certain player on or off an all-conference or even All-American team, especially if the player is a linemen or defensive back. Those positions are more dependent on the opinions of guys who have coaching insight.

Fantasy football has skewed the perception of what makes a quality football team. Ever draft an offensive lineman in your 12 team league? Didn't think so.

Honestly, ask yourself, when did you start hear about the linemen drafted in this past draft? March, right? Around the time of the combine, and long after the college season was over?

So back to Clemson, and I don't want to write an entire Clemson preview here, but I want to explain the justification for my wager.

Let's start with Talent. Clemson has that in bunches. You'll remember our article on FSU's failed 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes, where Jeff Bowden and his horrible staff failed to evaluate recruits and then took wild chances on kids who didn't want to play for FSU or who had serious academic and character issues. FSU has only 9 starters form those two recruiting classes. Only 9 senior or junior starters? Ouch! Recruiting really helps or hurts a team 3 and 4 years down the road.

Clemson's recruiting classes in 05-07 ranked 15th, 13th, and 16th nationally. FSU's ranked better, but those rankings don't account for kids who never qualify. In terms of who is still here from those classes, Clemson blows FSU away. Where FSU has 9 starters from the 05-07 classes, Clemson has 15. That's 15 physically mature grown men who were very talented to begin with.

And Clemson isn't sexy. They lost their best wide receiver (Aaron kelley) and the 2nd leading all-time rusher in James Davis. They also lost their quarterback. Similar to UGA, people are writing Clemson off because they lost their recognizable players. They did not, however, lose their best players, and that's what I care about.

The Tigers were widely picked to dominate the ACC last year and flopped so poorly that their coach was fired. Clemson was as overhyped last year as they are underhyped this year. To understand why, let's review what happened to Clemson. They got smoked by an Alabama team who nobody realized was elite until much later in the season, then they suffered huge injuries to both lines, particularly on the offensive line where they had 9 different guys start a game! Their QB had serious personality issues, and he was a pocket passer type who suddenly had no pocket. They were 3-1, but then lost three very close games @ Maryland, @ Wake Forest, and against Georgia Tech by an average of less than a field goal. Know what I call that? Bad luck, and it's proven that everyone wins about half of their games decided by 7 points or less. Winning or losing a huge percentage of those is truly, variance. Clemson was 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. If they had gone 3-2, they'd probably be ranked in the top 15 to start this year.

So, did anything good come of their season? You bet. First, they got an excellent defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele to replace an already excellent defensive coordinator in Vic Koenig. Steele was at FSU forever, is considered one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and knows FSU's defensive scheme inside and out. Second, Clemson already played excellent defense last year. They were the 4th best defense in the country. Their points per game numbers don't show it because the offense set them up in horrible field position after horrible field position, but that ultra comprehensive system (linked above) shows their true performance level. Clemson will, have a defense that is in the conversation for "best in America", and I expect as many as 7 of these defenders to eventually be drafted in the first 3 or 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Finally, they got a lot of guys experience on the offensive line. Much like FSU, their offensive linemen took their lumps last year and will be much better this year. Clemson's OLine is probably more talented than FSU's, though I am not prepared to call them better. They received far less press because they didn't become so inexperienced until later in the season (brought on by injuries), while the Noles were very young from day one and got a lot of preseason press. This year, they bring back all 5 of their main starters and these guys are very talented and experienced.

At receiver, they return 2 of the top 3, and also have Dye (high 4* Junior), Jones (high 4* soph), McNeal 5* frosh, and Rendrick T aylor (Unproven, but a a greg jones/ cornelious ingram type athlete at tight end). Jamie Harper (another high 4* RB) is more than capable of replacing James Davis at running back to go with CJ Spiller. And at QB, they have Willie Korn and Kyle Parker (5* and 4* respectively). Both are very talented players and the chance is that one WILL play pretty well. Plus, Clemson's staff won't ask them to do much at all. Behind a very talented line, and a great running game (likely), they will be asked to manage the game, throw play action passes, and make plays with their legs. It's been proven that if you play NFL style ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position) in the ACC, you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and will play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.

What about the schedule? Clemson starts off @ GT on a Thursday night, but they play Middle Tennessee state before that, so it's effectively a bye week, they then get BC at home, go @ Maryland, get a bye week, play Wake Forest at home, then travel to Miami. They then come home and get Coastal Carolina (a bye week) before hosting FSU. FSU hasn't won at Clemson since before Chris Rix! They then play @ NCST, and finish at home with Virginia.

FSU's schedule, as you know, does not have Virginia or Duke and that is a major detriment. Clemson gets de facto bye weeks before their two most difficult games, and draw Virginia out of the Coastal, which is HUGE, which means that in addition to playing FSU in Clemson, the Tigers do not have to play 3 difficult Coastal games, but rather two.

I believe FSU is as good as Clemson and that the 'Noles have a decent shot to win the division, but Clemson has the better schedule to win the division. Florida State faces a massive battle with attrition as they trek through this schedule. The Noles do not have quality depth because while Jeff Bowden was busy being one of the worst coaches ever, Tommy was busy killing his dad and brother in recruiting (when you consider who actually made it into school and not prison). Those players, from 2006 and 2007 are now Seniors and Juniors, and their veteran talent is much better than ours. Playing at home, getting a bye week before FSU, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson a shot to win the division.

Let's play guess a team, okay? In 2007, this team:

*Went 0-3 in games decided by 4 points or less (the bad luck factor) (Like Clemson)
*Was loaded with talent from a coach who was a great recruiter (like Clemson)
* Went 3-10, including 0-8 in conference despite high expectations.
* Fired their coach at the end of 2007. (Like Clemson)

In 2008, this team:

* Returned 16 starters from those elite recruiting classes, including 9 on defense. (Clemson returns 15, including 8 or 9 on defense)
* Had a Five-Star QB who hadn't played before (Much like Clemson's Willie Korn)
* Had an elite defense, especially their defensive line. (Much like Clemson)
* Had a new coach to energize the program, including quality coordinators. (Like Clemson)
* Brought back an offensive line entirely of talented upperclassmen (Like Clemson)
* Had a distinct lack of name skill-position talent (Like Clemson, except spiller)

And won the cotton bowl. This team was Ole Miss.

The point of this exercise is that just because you haven't heard of the talent on a squad doesn't mean that the talent is not there. Sometimes all it can take is a new coach or a lack of really bad luck to allow that talent to shine through. Ole Miss won games with excellent defense, and a 5* QB who had tons of time behind a talented and more experienced OLine, despite Jevan Snead being a first time starter.

But this does not mean I am picking Clemson to WIN the division. Rather, this means that I believe Clemson has about a 40% chance to win, as does FSU. NCST has about a 15% chance (I don't buy their defense yet), with everyone else having major rebuilding years in the Atlantic. The reason I make this wager is value. If I feel two teams have an equal or similar shot to win something, I will choose the team with the +350 odds over the team with the +120 odds. It's just value.

But I didn't pick them for the Division at +350, I picked them for the conference, at +1000. The rationale is simple: If I like them for the division, would I like them for the championship game as well, and if so, how much added value is needed to make the Conference wager more attractive than the division wager? I do like them for the division at +350, and +1000 is 50% more than double +350 for a game they'd probably be slight underdogs in, so the conference selection is more attractive than the division selection.

The Noles can beat the Tigers for the Atlantic, but they have work to do and will need to catch a few breaks as well. You can bet Jimbo Fisher knows this. I've had multiple readers tell me he believes Clemson is the team to beat in the Atlantic.

Until next time...

GO NOLES!!

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Reacting to Day 2 of the Cleveland Browns Draft

Chris Pokorny — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 03:28:39 -0000

The Cleveland Browns had four picks on Day 2 thanks to a couple of trades on Saturday, but three of those picks were in the sixth round. The other pick was in round four. In other words, while Day 1 was filled with excitement and had our attention every step of the way, Day 2 felt more like just sitting and waiting -- whatever happened, happened (had to include a LOST quote somehow).

As there are every year, several players fell surprisingly low. And, in most cases, the Browns passed on those players. Here's a question for everyone though -- in past years, when a player has seen their stock plummet several rounds, do they really end up being a "steal"? Or, did they just slowly drift away from fame, inevitably proving there was a reason they weren't taken sooner in the first place?

Anyway, here is what the Browns did on Day 2 of the 2009 NFL Draft:

Round 4 (No. 104 overall): The Browns selected LB Kaluka Maiava, who is the nephew of The Rock (fun fact). Maiava was USC's "unknown" in a way, because he was overshadowed by the likes of Clay Matthews, Rey Maualuga, and Brian Cushing, who were all taken on Day 1.

Maiava is slated to be an inside linebacker, and I think this was the right position to go after with a fourth round pick. The staff loves D'Qwell Jackson, so he'll probably have a spot locked up for several more years. Eric Barton will probably have the other spot locked up, but behind them, we don't have a solid rotation guy. Now, we can watch Beau Bell and Maiava go at it in training camp and let the best player come out victorious.
Round 6 (No. 177 overall): The selection was CB Don Carey of Norfolk St., and this seemed to be the pick that Browns fans were least receptive to during the two days, probably because we simply don't know much about him. Scouting reports seemed to indicate he has high character, but is a raw talent.
Round 6 (No. 191 overall): Here, the Browns took another cornerback. This time it was Coye Francies of San Jose St. Unlike the lukewarm reaction from the previous pick, everyone seemed to love the Francis pick. In fact, the Sporting News had him pegged as a second-round choice. While Carey was taken ahead of Francies, I think it's safe to assume which player fans will have higher expectations for heading into the season.
Round 6 (No. 195 overall): I'm pleased we didn't take a running back early, but that we did still end up taking one. While RB Rashad Jennings was still on the board here, the Browns decided to take RB James Davis of Clemson instead. We now have an immediate replacement for Jason Wright presumably.

I find it very "cool" that Davis attended the same high school that current Browns starting RB Jamal Lewis did. Reportedly, according to the Plain Dealer, Lewis had already visited Davis several times during his high school days.

"When I was in high school, he always used to come back to the school and I went to Atlanta and trained with him a couple of times," said Davis. "He's a great running back and his workout is really tough."

I smell a nice student-teacher relationship already.

Mr. Irrelevant ended up being a kicker named Ryan Succop of South Carolina. He'll compete for a spot on the Kansas City Chiefs roster.

Cleveland State University basketball player J'Nathan Bullock was not drafted, but teams should be free to sign him as a free agent now. Here's to hoping that he made a strong enough impression on the Browns a few weeks ago.

Finally, according to the Cumberland County Sentinel, the Browns have already signed an undrafted free agent: WR Jordan Norwood of Penn State.

In the coming days, expect more complete analysis and reports on all of the Browns draft picks, as well as the three players we acquired from the New York Jets.

Niners Nation Scouting Report: Zack Follett, OLB California

Fooch — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 19:16:23 -0000

The draft is two days away and one of our final scouting reports had to be on a popular local guy, the man they call Pain Train, Zach Follett. Follett is beloved by Cal fans for his aggressiveness and the fact that he gives 100% all the time.

The folks at California Golden Blogs (our Cal blog) have been putting together recaps of all the seniors and had plenty of comments about Follett. One "intangible" area that I liked was their comments on his leadership skills as the emotional leader of the team. It's certainly not the only reason to draft him, but it would seem to give Coach Singletary a reason to like him:

Zack was definitely a big time leader on the field in 2008 and I can't help but think that the meltdown of 2007 encouraged him to step up and be that emotional leader for the team. Remember after the 2007 when he vowed that he wouldn't let the team lose, meltdown, and get emotionally down again? He was right. He sure didn't let the team lose its swagger.

Next, let's take a quick look at his career numbers at Cal:

Year	G-GS	UT-AT-TT	TFL	Sacks	FF/FR	PBU	Int
2005	12-0	25-7-32	3-16	2-11	2/1	3	0-0
2006	13-1	34-28-62	12.5-53	5.5-28	4/0	2	1-0
2007	11-10	39-25-64	12.5-59	5.5-36	2/1	6	0-0
2008	13-13	58-29-87	23.0-138	10.5-99	5/1	4	0-0
Totals	49-24	156-89-245	51.0-266	23.5-174	13/3	15	1-0

These numbers say a lot about his development. In most categories he showed improvement each year, culminating in a beast of senior year. The sacks and fumbles are great, but what I love seeing is 23 tackles for a loss. It shows he can identify the ball carrier and make the play. The Pac-10 has some athletic running backs so that's certainly a quality skill heading into the NFL. Equally important is that it shows he's not just a one-dimensional pass rusher.

After the jump, we take a more specific look at his strengths and weaknesses and we've got some YouTube videos for you.

Strengths
As we said, Follett has the high motor and intensity that you like to see from anybody on your football team. Just as important though is that he brings great strength, even though he's not the biggest guy in the world. Even though he is not as big as some might want, he clearly can shed tacklers and make plays. Those tackles for loss show that ability.

The general consensus (and again that's seen in the tackles for a loss) is that he can close on ball carriers and has a nose for the football. Fumbles are a tough category since a lot of luck can be involved, but he clearly likes to go after the player and strip them of the ball whenever possible (Captain Obvious speaking here).

Weaknesses
Size is an issue, but he seems to have great strength for a guy his size. He' certainly not tiny, but I'm curious to see if his strength can carry him against NFL offensive linemen on a weekly basis.

Beyond that, his primary weakness seems to be in pass coverage. He's not awful at it but his movements are a bit stiff and not fluid like those with more natural pass coverage skills. As the folks at Mocking The Draft indicated in their scouting report:

Where Follett struggles the most is moving laterally, especially in pass coverage. When he's asked to drop, he stands straight up and isn't fluid in his movements. Will have trouble making open field tackles when he doesn't have help. Has an odd tackling motion where he lowers his head. That may have led to a neck stinger in 2007, which knocked him out of three games. Needs to do better sinking his hips and driving through the ball carrier. Overruns the play against the run because he almost always goes after the quarterback. Struggles with play action.

I can definitely see the over-running issue being a problem. When you've got a guy who is super-aggressive and plays with a high motor, you're going to get some overplaying. It's just something he has to learn to control.

This weekend
Follett is being projected in the 4th to 5th round in many mocks. Scouts Inc projected him in the 5th round (20th pick of the round) going to the Cowboys. That's the round the 49ers grab James Davis, the running back from Clemson. Given that the mock has the 49ers drafting NO linebackers, I'd much rather grab Follett in the 5th than Davis.