SB Nation - Tyler Grisham

Post-Spring Previews: Clemson Tigers

Gamecock Man — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:18:52 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

4 months ago: Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney speaks during the Atlantic Coast Conference Kickoff college football media day in Greensboro, N.C., Monday, July 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

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After hosting the Florida Gators in week eleven, USC takes a week off before wrapping up the season with the annual rivalry match with the Clemson Tigers. The Tigers enter 2009 flying distinctly under the radar in Dabo Swinney's first full season as head coach. After underachieving in each of the last few years of Tommy Bowden's tenure, expectations are decidedly lower for the transitioning Tigers this year. However, in many ways this year's Clemson may be better than the Clemsons of years past. James Davis and Cullen Harper are gone, but C.J. Spiller is still around, the offensive line should be a bit better, and there's talent on the defense. Plus, I have a feeling Swinney will excel his predecessor in the coaching department, not that that's saying so much. This team's ceiling will likely be determined by how far either Kyle Parker or Willy Korn go towards becoming top-tier quarterbacks. Parker appears to be the starter right now, but don't be surprised to see Swinney continue to give Korn a look.

Of course, we've floundered horribly in this rivalry series in recent years. Despite not having been an elite team in recent years, the Tigers have generally had their way with us, winning 11 of the past 13, including a few blowouts, such as the 31-14 beatdown last year at Clemson. By contrast, we've won more games against Georgia in the past decade, despite the fact that the Dawgs have clearly been much better than Clemson in that time span. I've heard lots of theories as to why Clemson has owned us, perhaps the most pervasive being that we're simply spent by the time this game comes around. Personally, I don't buy this theory; the ACC may not be as good as the SEC, but it's not a cake walk, as suggested by the fact that Clemson usually comes into this game with almost as many losses as we have. The Tigers could just as easily say that their schedule wears them out, but they seem to always play their best in this game. The opposite could be said for us.

Whatever the case may be, we have to figure out a way to start winning more of these games, and not just for pride's sake, although that's certainly important. Losing a match with the Tigers may not keep us out of the SEC Title Game in the official standings, but it does hurt us on the recruiting trail, which is one of the things that keeps us from being able to challenge Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the East. All things considered, we recruit surprisingly well against Clemson considering how badly they usually seem to manhandle us. That has me thinking that if we could turn the tables on them that we could corner the market on the in-state talent. That's what will get us over the hump in the SEC, and that's why Clemson-Carolina is about more than bragging rights.

Let's take a look at how we stack up against the Tigers this year.

Offense

Expect to see Clemson run more spread formations this year than in years past. The Tigers want to get their two best offensive players, C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford, the ball in space so they can make big plays with their speed.

Quarterback

While the Tigers have some talent on offense, they have a big question mark at the position that matters the most. Kyle Parker has won the starting job after solid spring and August practices, but Willy Korn will continue to get looks if Parker struggles. Both are talented, but either way, Clemson will have to rely on a freshman without significant experience this year.

I call this one a push. Stephen Garcia is slightly further along in his development than Parker or Korn and probably has the most upside of the three. However, Clemson has an advantage over us in the depth department.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

Clemson returns a legitimate Heisman contender in Spiller. Spiller needs no introduction here, as Carolina fans won't be soon to forget what he's done to us over the course of his career. The Tigers will look to Jamie Harper to fill the void left by James Davis. The highly recruited Harper rushed for only around 100 yards last year but will be expected to play a much larger role this year.

I give the Tigers a slight to strong advantage here. We have the talent and depth to have a very good running game this year, but, unfortunately, we don't have a Spiller, who is one of the nation's very best.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Clemson loses some significant players here from a year ago. Gone are receivers Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham and end Michael Palmer. The Tigers do return Jacoby Ford, who is a definite big-play threat. However, outside of Ford they have almost no one with any significant experience. Possession receiver and end are question marks for Clemson.

I give Carolina a slight advantage here. Clemson does have the guy with the most career catches, but we have a large number of guys that have proven they're capable, whereas Clemson has no one after Ford. That gives us a key advantage in the depth department.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Offensive Line

Last year, offensive line was Clemson's weakness throughout most of the season. This year, though, the more experienced Tigers offensive line should be better. The Tigers only lose one player, center Bobby Hutchinson, and return a solid group of guys with starting experience. Depth may be the only cause for concern.

The Tigers look quite a bit like us here. Both of us should field much better lines in 2009. I'm calling this a push.

Verdict: Push

Let's take a look at defenses after the jump.

Defense

Clemson runs a 4-3 defense. Swinney and coordinator Kevin Steele have said that they plan to be more aggressive than the previous regime.

Defensive Line

The Tigers are strong at end, which they hope will help them generate a better pass rush than a year ago. Da'Quan Bowers is another Gaines Adams in the making, while Ricky Sapp should be good if he recovers from last year's knee injury. The Tigers did lose some key tackles from a year ago, and may struggle to find depth if Jarvis Jenkins or Brandon Thomas go down.

I give Carolina a very slight advantage here, mainly due to greater experience in the starting lineup and questions about how good Sapp will be after his injury. Both teams are in a similar boat in terms of depth, so the team with the most guys still standing by the end of the year may be the one with the advantage when the time comes.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

The Tigers are pretty solid here. Interior linebacker Brandon Maye is great in rushing defense and will probably lead the team in tackles. Kavell Conner gives them a solid outside guy. The other spot is a little shakier, with Scotty Cooper likely starting now that DeAndre McDaniel has moved to safety. Depth is also an issue.

I give us a slight advantage here. The Tigers don't quite have the star power we have at linebacker, but they should be good nonetheless.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Secondary

The secondary is Clemson's defense's strength, as the Tigers return quality experience at every position. Corner Chris Chancellor, who has been very successful against us over the course of his career, is the unit's star. Crezdon Butler is also good at the opposite corner, and the Tigers have quality backups for Chancellor and Butler. The Tigers lose strong safety Michael Hamlin, but they will replace him with the aforementioned McDaniel, who should ably fill Hamlin's shoes. Free safety is a little more of a question mark, but Clemson should be able to figure it out with the talent they have in the secondary reserves.

I give Clemson a slight to strong advantage here. News out of camp has been promising for our young secondary, but the Tigers are unquestionably more of a proven quantity.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Special Teams

The Tigers will suffer a complete overhaul of their kicking game after losing kicker Mark Buchholz (I'm sure you remember him) and Jimmy Maners. Spencer Benton and Richard Jackson are competing for kicking duties, while Dawson Zimmerman is expected to handle punts. Zimmerman did play some last year and was OK. Clemson does have a potentially explosive return game when Spiller and Ford are returning. Those of you that watched Alabama paste the Tigers last year may remember that one of their few highlights was a long kickoff return for a touchdown by Spiller.

I'll call this a push. We have slightly more stability in the kicking game, the same thing going for Clemson in the return game.

Verdict: Push

Coaches

Dabo Swinney was able to energize the Clemson faithful by finishing the regular season strongly. That finish, of course, included the blowout win over us, which certainly helped Swinney's reputation with Clemson faithful. The true test, though, begins now, after the lustre of that surprise finish has worn off. Swinney is still a coach with very, very little experience, certainly much less than you would expect for a guy in charge of a relatively high-profile program like Clemson. He has to prove that he wasn't a knee-jerk reaction hire--a la West Virginia's Bill Stewart--by having a better than average season this year. He doesn't have to win the ACC, mind you, but he does have the tools to finish in its upper half. If he can't do that--and he fails to beat us--expect the Tigers faithful to immediately begin to question the hire. And rightfully so, I would say; I'm still a bit surprised the Tigers didn't go after someone like Bobby Johnson. If Swinney does well, though, expect the hype machine to begin for the resurgence of Clemson football.

I'll give Steve Spurrier a slight advantage here based on experience. However, as with Lane Kiffin, it's really too early to make many judgment calls about Swinney, so take this comparison with a grain of salt.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Overall

My sense is that these are fairly evenly matched teams. Both should have pretty good defenses and both might have OK offenses if a few things fall into place. A few decisive questions jump out at me when trying to decide which will win. First of all, the two teams share inexperience at quarterback. Whether it's Parker / Korn or Garcia that's playing well by November will be a deciding factor in how good these two teams are relative to each other when they take the field. Second of all, Dabo Swinney and his staff are largely an unknown quantity, so their progress will be important. Finally, both teams have some depth issues on defense that may be exposed by the end of the season. The team that suffers fewest injuries at low-depth positions may have an advantage there. I don't have the answers to these questions right now, so I'm just going to go with my heart (and against historical precedent) and call it a close Carolina victory. I'll go ahead and admit that this pick derives at least in part from homerism and unwillingness to pick Clemson. We obviously have a lot to prove against these guys. I do, though, think the talent gap has closed to a certain degree. We're in a place to even up this series. The only thing remaining is to actually do it.

Prediction: 28-24 Carolina victory

Poll

The Clemson game will result in a (elaborate in the comments section)...

Blowout Carolina Victory

10 votes

Close Carolina Victory

26 votes

Close Clemson Victory

18 votes

Blowout Clemson Victory

33 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

Previewing the Clemson Tigers @ The Florida State Seminoles

FSUncensored — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:33:52 -0000

Next Game

Clemson Tigers
@ Florida St. Seminoles

Saturday, Nov 8, 2008, 3:30 PM EST
Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium

Shut Up Drew Weatherford

posted by FSUncensored about 9 hours ago

20 comments | 0 recs

The Conversation: Talking with Dr. B of Clempson Football

posted by FSUncensored 1 day ago

1 comment | 0 recs

Wednesday running update and open comment thread

posted by FSUncensored 1 day ago

8 comments | 0 recs

Complete Coverage >

Your announcers are a bunch of no-names. That's often better as they'll do their homework and come prepared.

Other Nole blogs chime in:

Chantrant: Why didn't Brad Scott become the OC, and answers from another Clemson beat writer. & Inside the mind of Dabo Swinney: an interview with the Anderson Independent.

Scalpem: Humorous and good as usual with this "ridiculously quick preview."

The offense will be up later when I take a study break.This preview will be shorter until Saturday morning, at which point I will add more. I have a midnight deadline on a paper, and I have to devote most of my time to finishing. The preview will be incomplete until then.

I've seen Clemson play one game in person this year (Alabama), and 3 more games on TV (Losses to Wake, Maryland, and Georgia Tech). Even after seeing 4 games, however, this team is still hard to read.

Know who did have a great read on them? RockMNation (Missouri's blog)

Here's my biggest point of hesitation: Clemson has to replace FOUR starters on the offensive line, including both their all-conference LG and all-conference LT. It appears there's plenty of talent in this unit, but...holy smokes, is that a lot to lose. And no matter how great your RBs are, they're going to be limited if they're having to make their first move 3 yards in the backfield. This is still likely the best offense in the conference, but I'm thinking good defenses will still be able to slow them down quite a bit. This isn't a "they're getting their yards no matter the opponent" situation.

(One more point of hesitation: they were +13 in turnovers in '07. That's hard to duplicate in back-to-back years.)

Let's take a look at the Tiger's games against D1 competition.

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Alabama	419	180	239	25	64.7%	6/40	0	41:13
Clemson	188	188	0	11	11.1%	6/43	2	18:47

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
North Carolina State	288	152	136	20	41.2%	7/40	2	32:57
Clemson	428	262	166	22	44.4%	7/75	2	27:03

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Maryland	295	172	123	11	33.3%	9/70	0	27:24
Clemson	372	151	221	19	33.3%	6/50	3	32:36

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Clemson	198	177	21	10	14.3%	7/59	1	24:08
Wake Forest	342	186	156	21	47.6%	3/17	0	35:52

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Georgia Tech	298	91	207	12	37.5%	6/45	2	34:53
Clemson	249	198	51	12	25.0%	4/36	6	25:07

Team	Total Yds	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	First Downs	3rdD%	Pen./Yds	Turnovers	Time of Poss.
Clemson	339	252	87	16	40.0%	5/35	4	29:01
Boston College	236	116	120	11	16.7%	3/30	2	30:59

18 Turnovers in 6 games is sloppiness and bad luck. We saw that turnovers are often a product of bad luck when we faced Georgia Tech, who has similarly been plagued by turnovers. We cannot rely on Clemson turning the ball over.

What we can do is play defense with controlled aggression. Excuse me if this is simplistic, but Clemson's offensive line sucks. The mainstream media fittingly glossed over this "minor" weakness of their football team. They are playing better now that they have a little bit more experience after suffering from some early season injuries and they're playing with more motivation under Dabo Swinney than they were under Tommy Bowden, but we still need to exploit this weakness.

I'm not going to talk about C.J. Spiller very much in this space. I know that we are scheming to stop him, and as you'll see, his line doesn't block for him. He is an NFL back, and we have to control him. We won't shut him down completely.

How should we exploit this weakness? BY NOT BLITZING CRAZILY. The offensive line doesn't move people off the ball at all. They have been handled by some good defensive lines; notably GTech, Alabama, and Wake Forest). Florida State's defensive line hasn't drawn much praise around here as of late, but they are still a good defensive line capable of winning this battle without help from the blitzers.

Why is not excessively blitzing so important? When an offensive line can't move people, they resort to other tactics; usually misdirection plays, screens, or zone blocking principles. Clemson doesn't zone block well like FSU does (it feels so good to say that). They are a good screen team, however, and also run a good bit of misdirection. If they can't take us out of the play, they must depend on us taking ourselves out of the play. We should let our DLine play fast and loose, and let our LB's take care of business by reacting quickly. If we blitz a lot here, I fear that we will be out of position and will be gashed for the big play. Besides the obvious negatives of the big play, we really need to avoid allowing it against Clemson because...

Clemson cannot sustain drives because they are sloppy, poorly coached, undisciplined, not in sync, and imprecise. Oh, they also don't run the ball and win the battle of first down:

Against Georgia Tech, they had two- 40+ Yard drives in the 3rd quarter and did not have any other drives over 25 yards in the entire game.
Outside of a 70 yard drive, Wake held Clemson under 40 yards on all other drives.
Boston College allowed drives of 70, 80, & 70 yards, but--- those drives contained plays of 56, 45, 26, 24, and 23 yards. Even when their drives were long, they gained: 174 of the 220 yards these drives encompassed were gained on plays of 20+ yards.

Sometimes there is a good reason to blitz. This is not one of those times. We cannot afford to let Clemson hit us for big plays. Playing base defense and using our athleticism to limit yards after the catch-- or even better to deny the catch, will be a much better game plan.

Do you remember what I said about the VT game? A refresher:

We can't consistently block their pass rush, and honestly, should invite them to blitz. If they can get pressure with 4, why not let them bring 6 and give us single coverage? We'll need to win this with big plays; probably deep balls to Surrency Carr, or a series of screens. We won't drive on these guys.

That is Clemson against us to a T.

It's an especially good game plan because Clemson's QB Cullen Harper has a million dollar arm (first round draft pick level), but a 2-cent head. He sucks at throwing the underneath stuff and is sometimes really inaccurate. Think Jeff George. Does letting this guy throw deep balls against single coverage sound like the right idea to you? I thought not. Let's keep at least one man in deep zone coverage at all times.

Clemson will line up primarily in 3WR sets. This is usually good for FSU as we have the speed at LB to stay in our 4-3 alignment. In this game, however, Clemson has an NCAA track guy lining up in the slot. I'm not sure if we plan to use man coverage on him with Myron Rolle but I will say a prayer tonight that we do not attempt this. In keeping with the idea of "make Clemson earn it", this would be almost the reverse of what we should do. We need to play more Nickel in this game. I am fine with letting Corey Mangum play Ford if we have a deep safety. Let's hope that Mickey doesn't dare Cullen to beat single coverage deep. That's a dare he will lose.

As for their other receivers...

Aaron Kelley is 6'5 and really good. That said, I'm okay with Patrick Robinson playing him man-up, as long as we occasionally flash deep help his way. Robinson is a very good cover corner, and Kelly is a lazy route runner with a lot of physical talent.

Tyler Gresham is 5'2 and white. Insert [good route runner] [understands the offense], etc. He doesn't have great hands though. Tony Carter should do just fine against him.

If I told you that our 2 corners should more than hold their own against an opposing team's best two receivers, that their offensive line sucked, and that their QB is wildly inconsistent but does have a big arm, how confident would you be?

Their TE is a complete non-factor (though against us, he is good for 11 catches and 140 yards).

If we allow big plays on screens to Spiller or big plays to Ford this Saturday, you should be angry.

You might be thinking

"FSUncensored, BC runs a soft cover-3 and Clemson gashed them. Didn't they try to limit big plays"?

Yes, and yes. BC has ZERO speed on defense, however, and they are incapable of generating pressure without a blitz, specifically off the edge. Florida State doesn't have this same problem, since we have that Everette Brown guy. There should be NO REASON TO BLITZ 6. IF YOU WANT TO SEND WATSON OFF THE EDGE AND HAVE THE FS IN DEEP MIDDLE THAT IS FINE. Please though, none of the crazy stuff. Everette Brown already produces this reaction:

I figured I'd break out "Do Not Want Dog", since EB has another bad offensive tackle to feast on! DNWD is the official mascot of offensive tackle fear. It worked against Colorado and Va Tech.

I'm not sure if Clemson will help on EB, but considering their TE sucks, they probably should.

My hopes are that we see a lot of Watson and Verdell in this game. I love Nicholson, but I'm not sure his skillset works here. Watson and Verdell's speed should be a huge benefit. We need to make Harper throw accurately in the short and intermediate levels.

Clemson's offense is poorly coordinated and not precise in any way. This shows up in their over-reliance on the big play. They don't play as a unit and I think you'll see this on Saturday.

Our prime defensive play this Saturday should be: Cover-1 Blitzes. One blitzer off the outside (preferrably allowing Moffett to come inside, opposite of brown), and a deep safety in coverage to take away the deep ball. 6 man blitzes against this team, however, are foolish and unnecessary.

Let's do the goals:

The Goals for the Seminole Rushing Defense:

Keep Clempzun in 2nd and long: 33% of First Down Rushes for 2 or fewer yards. (The STUFFED %)
Use penetration to get stops: 40% Win Rate on 3rd+ 4th n short rushing
Tackle Well: Less than 10 missed tackles (A Mickey Andrews Goal)
Don't have your good work go for naught: 1 or fewer draws of 3rd and 8 or Longer for first downs. This is big!
No rushing TD's in the red zone. Make Harper throw the ball accurately in tight spaces.
Take good angles to the football: No more than 4 runs over 15 yards and less than 2 runs over 35 yards.

The benchmarks for the FSU Pass Defense

Harper under a QB Rating of 115 overall. (120 is about 18 completions in 30 attempts for 200 yards; 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions.)
Limit Big Plays: no more than 5 passes of 15+ yards, and nothing over 40. See next goal.
Selective Pass Interference: do not give up the deep ball. If they do throw it, interfere like crazy.
Hit Harper: Play to the echo of the whistle. Have a sack rate (sacks / (pass plays + sacks)) of 10% or more. (27 pass attempts and 3 sacks, so 3/30). As Mickey said... "you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen...."
Be studs on 3rd and long: make the tackle when they throw underneath and don't allow them to get the 3rd down. Limit Harper to a double digit QB rating on 3rd down and 7+
Do not fall for play action on short yardage downs: DB's rarely make these plays but are usually the ones burned for trying to help out too much.
Confuse Harper Mix the coverages enough to confuse Harper. I'm annoyed that we give away our blitz too early. Let's wait to walk down, and at other times walk down and then back out.
Create 2 turnovers.

Final Goals For FSU's defense

LESS THAN 4.75 YPP
No Plays of 50+ Yards. I doubt CU can repeatedly drive on this team. Let's make them try.
10 "Stops" Mickey defines a stop as a turnover, punt, or a surrender on downs. That's fine by me.
Less than 50% Red Zone TD Scoring
No scores off sudden change (make CU get a first down off a turnover. Do not allow the home run immediately after a turnover)
Hold CU under 300 yards. Mickey's goal is 300, but CU is a bit better than their record.

CU's offense is ranked 90th by FEI for a reason. They aren't that good.

What will happen?

FSU will not get killed by big plays, but will give up some. Clemson will foolishly abandon the run as they've done all year. As you'll see when I write it later, Clemson won't have many plays to work with. CU will rush 27 times (including sacks) for 100 yards, and will throw 30 times for 200 yards. They'll hit one play of 45+ yards, and score at TD. They'll get a fg off of their lone decent DRIVE of the game. They snag a field goal on a short field, and somehow get two more as well, for a total of 19 points. Expect big days from Watson solid play from the corners.

Will that be enough? Check back later in the day to find out.

Some stuff on FSU great Warrick Dunn:

This comes from Brandan from Nike.

Hi TN –

As a voice on all things FSU, I thought you and your readers would be interested in a pep talk video Warrick Dunn recently gave to Lakeland High School as part of Nike’s 5 Days 2 Friday program. Nike played the video on the jumbotron right before the Dreadnaught’s game against Boyd Anderson (which the Dreadnaughts won 27-22). As part of the program, the company is traveling across the country and visiting various top-ranked high school football teams in the week leading up to a big game. Each week they make donations to local community organizations, host team dinners, station a NikeiD booth for students to design their own shoes, conduct SPARQ training sessions for local Pop Warner teams, etc.

The Story continues

Nike 5 Days to Friday - Warrick Dunn (via CWSports)

Warrick also discusses CONFRONTING HIS MOTHER'S KILLER.

Warrick Dunn isn't my favorite Nole Player ever, but he is my favorite person to ever put on the G&G.

Steele, Feldman, Accuscore, FEI, and almost everyone else picked FSU to win. Count me in as well.

On offense, look for FSU to go on LONG drives. I see a lot of really, really long drives, holding the ball, dominating the clock, and frustrating Clemson. Running short on time here. Not a ton of big plays.

The running game will be all about balance. Expect us to exploit Clemson's considerable speed by using a lot of the zone read, but more importantly, by having Jermaine and Antone gashing Clemson on cutbacks. I predict an awesome cutback run of 45+ yards by one of those guys. Clemson will overpursue, so end-arounds, reverses, and trick plays are all in play.

Clemson's pass defense is 75th in the nation in OPAED, which isn't great, but isn't as bad as some we've faced. They will take away the easy stuff, but I do think we can throw the screens (and we should even if they aren't effective-- to slow CU down.) Their corners are also short, so I expect to see us take some shots to Carr and Surrency. Parker seems to be coming into his own as well, and could have a decent day. He might be our best offensive player-- still. CU will struggle with the Carr quarmire-- whether to guard the jump ball or play aggressively against the bubble. I still expect them to give us the difficult throws if we can hit them (deep outs and in'sm skinny posts on a rope, etc)

So, your goals for Clemson? Track this stuff as you watch the game, it makes it more interesting:

So, the goals for the FSU running game?

45% of carries by FSU RB's on First down go for 3 or more yards (win first down). This seems like a strange goal, but it is all about staying out of 3rd and long. I know this number seems low, but I'm trying to set realistic goals here.
60% conversions running on 3rd/ 4th & 2 or less
1 or fewer fumbles (Not fumbles losT, but Fumbles)
40 yards rushing from Christian. This does not count sacks. I will parse our the sacks.

The goals for the Passing Game?

Less than .33 drops per 5 throws (works out to 2 or less per 35 throws)
QB Rating of 120+ Clearly, we're not a high completion % pass game, but Jimbo has stated that he doesn't care about that. Low completion % but big plays are fine by me. A rating of 125 is roughly 15 completions in 27 attempts for 205 yards; 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions.
No careless throws into the flat. This is big, since these almost always go for a Pick-6.
Special Sack Rate (sacks + Holdings on dropbacks / sacks + pass attempts + holding on dropbacks) of less than 14%. Yes, 14%. That isn't a typo. If we have 30 pass plays, we must not allow more than 4 combined holding penalties and sacks. Obviously, I would prefer 4 holdings and zero sacks, as we don't risk injury or fumbles with the holding, and as we all know, the team that commits more penalties usually wins the game. it's true.
7 Yards per Attempt.
2 plays with 15+ YAC
No more than 1 BadReadBadThrow (BRBT) per 15 passes. This is very important if they play zone.
No more than 1 bad blitz pickup miss per 15 attempts (Marcus Sims, this is you). CU doesn't blitz much, and I doubt they bring 6+ guys more than once or twice.

General Offensive Goals

5.3 YPP(Yards Per Play). 66 Plays at 5.5 YPP = 365 yards.
No Personal Fouls (except clipping, I'm fine with that here). I know that the team committing more penalties usually wins the game, but these are non-aggression penalties.
Less than 2 turnovers
No more than 1 bad snap (McMahon, please step your game up and play like what a FROSH AA should play like as a Soph)
60%+ Red Zone Touchdowns (Kicking is losing). We've done a decent job of this this year.

So, what will happen?

With CU putting up 19 points, FSU will need 20+, and they will get it. FSU runs 39 times (including sacks) for 160 yards (not a great average, but it includes sacks), and throws 27 times for 200 yards. We will probably commit 2 turnovers, but hopefully they are not costly. I think we hold the ball for mor ethan 33 Minutes, while getting 2 td's and 4 field goals, as CU gives up some yardage but not huge points. Despite the low sack totals, CU's DLine is very talented, as is their secondary. None of their LB's would make our ROSTER, however, and we will eventually exploit that advantage.

Gano will make us forget about the kick coverage woes.

FSU 26, CU 19

I'd love to hear your thoughts, and of course, there will be more to come later.

TARGET FILE: at The Team from the Upstate [11.29.08]

cocknfire — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 05:23:19 -0000

This was easily the most painful game of the 2007 campaign for the Gamecocks. The Team from the Upstate rebounded from being down 21-20, converted after 3rd-and-18 and kicked a game-winning field goal as the last seconds ticked off the clock. In our house. To end any hope of a bowl and any hope of redeeming the season.

And so this is a revenge game, as entirely too many games against the Team from the Upstate have been over the years. The problem is that wanting revenge won't be enough to win the game.

OFFENSE

O-line. Two starters return from last year's squad, which already ranked 100th in the FBS by allowing 2.69 sacks a game. And the rushing offense was not as good as you think: 50th in the country, with 161.2 ypg. Good, but not great. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

Quarterback. The questioning of Cullen Harper confuses me. Sure, he had a running threat that you had to respect, and that's going to help anyone's number. But: 282-of-433, 2,991 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs. His QB rating was 140.96, good for 22nd in the country. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

Running backs. The DaviSpiller monster accounted for 2,851 all-purpose yards and 19 TDs last year. Sure, it might not be Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but it's still pretty good. And this tandem actually returns this year. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

Remind me again why we decided to play for Tommy Bowden...

Wide receivers. Aaron Kelly returns with his 88 receptions, 1,081 yards and 11 TDs. He's backed up by Tyler Grisham, 60 catches, 653 yards and 4 TDs. They're just flat deeper than South Carolina. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

DEFENSE

Defensive line. Ricky Sapp, who had 10 TFL, five of them sacks, is one of three returning starters on the front. The rushing defense was actually better, in some ways, than the rushing offense last year: 23rd in the country, 118.3 ypg. However, they are without Phillip Merling, he of the 78 tackles, 17 TFL, 7 sacks and 21 quarterback pressures. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

Linebackers. One starter returns to this squad, and the losses include leading tackler Nick Watkins, who had 118 last year, and Tramaine Billie, he of the 79 tackles, 4 TFL and seven quarterback pressures. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

Secondary. All the starters return after a year in which the Team from the Upstate ranked 13th in pass efficiency defense, allowing a 108.31 QB rating. Last year, the Tiggers had 16 picks. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicking -- bah! The Team from the Upstate can't kick! NAH NAH NAH!!! I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!! Actually, Mark Buchholz only hit 61.1 percent of his FG attempts. On the other hand, Jimmy Maners averaged 42.8 yards on his punts. The return game was good on kickoffs, but so-so on punts. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

COACHING

Tommy Bowden. Versus Steve Spurrier. You're kidding, right? ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

RESULT

Again, I never pick the Team from the Upstate to win. Tradition is the only reason to make this selection. POSSIBLE WIN

THE REST OF THEIR SEASON

This is the year for the Team from the Upstate, or so we're told. If they can get past Alabama, the Tiggers are set up to open the season 5-0 before they head to Wake Forest for the de facto Atlantic Division championship game. We think. After that, the toughest remaining conference game is at Florida State. You have the creeping thought: "Dear, merciful Heaven -- they could go undefeated." Then you remember that they're coached by Tommy Bowden. 10-2

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Thus concludes the Target File series -- finally. Upcoming: the final month of the national slate in one preview, and FIVE REASONS debuts for the 2008 season.

And then, football.

Poll

South Carolina at the Team from the Upstate will be a ...

South Carolina blowout

5 votes

Narrow South Carolina win

11 votes

Push

4 votes

Narrow Team from the Upstate win

4 votes

Team from the Upstate blowout

3 votes

27 votes | Poll has closed