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Post-Spring Previews: Clemson Tigers

Gamecock Man — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:18:52 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

4 months ago: Clemson football coach Dabo Swinney speaks during the Atlantic Coast Conference Kickoff college football media day in Greensboro, N.C., Monday, July 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

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After hosting the Florida Gators in week eleven, USC takes a week off before wrapping up the season with the annual rivalry match with the Clemson Tigers. The Tigers enter 2009 flying distinctly under the radar in Dabo Swinney's first full season as head coach. After underachieving in each of the last few years of Tommy Bowden's tenure, expectations are decidedly lower for the transitioning Tigers this year. However, in many ways this year's Clemson may be better than the Clemsons of years past. James Davis and Cullen Harper are gone, but C.J. Spiller is still around, the offensive line should be a bit better, and there's talent on the defense. Plus, I have a feeling Swinney will excel his predecessor in the coaching department, not that that's saying so much. This team's ceiling will likely be determined by how far either Kyle Parker or Willy Korn go towards becoming top-tier quarterbacks. Parker appears to be the starter right now, but don't be surprised to see Swinney continue to give Korn a look.

Of course, we've floundered horribly in this rivalry series in recent years. Despite not having been an elite team in recent years, the Tigers have generally had their way with us, winning 11 of the past 13, including a few blowouts, such as the 31-14 beatdown last year at Clemson. By contrast, we've won more games against Georgia in the past decade, despite the fact that the Dawgs have clearly been much better than Clemson in that time span. I've heard lots of theories as to why Clemson has owned us, perhaps the most pervasive being that we're simply spent by the time this game comes around. Personally, I don't buy this theory; the ACC may not be as good as the SEC, but it's not a cake walk, as suggested by the fact that Clemson usually comes into this game with almost as many losses as we have. The Tigers could just as easily say that their schedule wears them out, but they seem to always play their best in this game. The opposite could be said for us.

Whatever the case may be, we have to figure out a way to start winning more of these games, and not just for pride's sake, although that's certainly important. Losing a match with the Tigers may not keep us out of the SEC Title Game in the official standings, but it does hurt us on the recruiting trail, which is one of the things that keeps us from being able to challenge Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the East. All things considered, we recruit surprisingly well against Clemson considering how badly they usually seem to manhandle us. That has me thinking that if we could turn the tables on them that we could corner the market on the in-state talent. That's what will get us over the hump in the SEC, and that's why Clemson-Carolina is about more than bragging rights.

Let's take a look at how we stack up against the Tigers this year.

Offense

Expect to see Clemson run more spread formations this year than in years past. The Tigers want to get their two best offensive players, C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford, the ball in space so they can make big plays with their speed.

Quarterback

While the Tigers have some talent on offense, they have a big question mark at the position that matters the most. Kyle Parker has won the starting job after solid spring and August practices, but Willy Korn will continue to get looks if Parker struggles. Both are talented, but either way, Clemson will have to rely on a freshman without significant experience this year.

I call this one a push. Stephen Garcia is slightly further along in his development than Parker or Korn and probably has the most upside of the three. However, Clemson has an advantage over us in the depth department.

Verdict: Push

Running Backs

Clemson returns a legitimate Heisman contender in Spiller. Spiller needs no introduction here, as Carolina fans won't be soon to forget what he's done to us over the course of his career. The Tigers will look to Jamie Harper to fill the void left by James Davis. The highly recruited Harper rushed for only around 100 yards last year but will be expected to play a much larger role this year.

I give the Tigers a slight to strong advantage here. We have the talent and depth to have a very good running game this year, but, unfortunately, we don't have a Spiller, who is one of the nation's very best.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Clemson loses some significant players here from a year ago. Gone are receivers Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham and end Michael Palmer. The Tigers do return Jacoby Ford, who is a definite big-play threat. However, outside of Ford they have almost no one with any significant experience. Possession receiver and end are question marks for Clemson.

I give Carolina a slight advantage here. Clemson does have the guy with the most career catches, but we have a large number of guys that have proven they're capable, whereas Clemson has no one after Ford. That gives us a key advantage in the depth department.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Offensive Line

Last year, offensive line was Clemson's weakness throughout most of the season. This year, though, the more experienced Tigers offensive line should be better. The Tigers only lose one player, center Bobby Hutchinson, and return a solid group of guys with starting experience. Depth may be the only cause for concern.

The Tigers look quite a bit like us here. Both of us should field much better lines in 2009. I'm calling this a push.

Verdict: Push

Let's take a look at defenses after the jump.

Defense

Clemson runs a 4-3 defense. Swinney and coordinator Kevin Steele have said that they plan to be more aggressive than the previous regime.

Defensive Line

The Tigers are strong at end, which they hope will help them generate a better pass rush than a year ago. Da'Quan Bowers is another Gaines Adams in the making, while Ricky Sapp should be good if he recovers from last year's knee injury. The Tigers did lose some key tackles from a year ago, and may struggle to find depth if Jarvis Jenkins or Brandon Thomas go down.

I give Carolina a very slight advantage here, mainly due to greater experience in the starting lineup and questions about how good Sapp will be after his injury. Both teams are in a similar boat in terms of depth, so the team with the most guys still standing by the end of the year may be the one with the advantage when the time comes.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Linebackers

The Tigers are pretty solid here. Interior linebacker Brandon Maye is great in rushing defense and will probably lead the team in tackles. Kavell Conner gives them a solid outside guy. The other spot is a little shakier, with Scotty Cooper likely starting now that DeAndre McDaniel has moved to safety. Depth is also an issue.

I give us a slight advantage here. The Tigers don't quite have the star power we have at linebacker, but they should be good nonetheless.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Secondary

The secondary is Clemson's defense's strength, as the Tigers return quality experience at every position. Corner Chris Chancellor, who has been very successful against us over the course of his career, is the unit's star. Crezdon Butler is also good at the opposite corner, and the Tigers have quality backups for Chancellor and Butler. The Tigers lose strong safety Michael Hamlin, but they will replace him with the aforementioned McDaniel, who should ably fill Hamlin's shoes. Free safety is a little more of a question mark, but Clemson should be able to figure it out with the talent they have in the secondary reserves.

I give Clemson a slight to strong advantage here. News out of camp has been promising for our young secondary, but the Tigers are unquestionably more of a proven quantity.

Verdict: Slight to strong advantage Clemson

Special Teams

The Tigers will suffer a complete overhaul of their kicking game after losing kicker Mark Buchholz (I'm sure you remember him) and Jimmy Maners. Spencer Benton and Richard Jackson are competing for kicking duties, while Dawson Zimmerman is expected to handle punts. Zimmerman did play some last year and was OK. Clemson does have a potentially explosive return game when Spiller and Ford are returning. Those of you that watched Alabama paste the Tigers last year may remember that one of their few highlights was a long kickoff return for a touchdown by Spiller.

I'll call this a push. We have slightly more stability in the kicking game, the same thing going for Clemson in the return game.

Verdict: Push

Coaches

Dabo Swinney was able to energize the Clemson faithful by finishing the regular season strongly. That finish, of course, included the blowout win over us, which certainly helped Swinney's reputation with Clemson faithful. The true test, though, begins now, after the lustre of that surprise finish has worn off. Swinney is still a coach with very, very little experience, certainly much less than you would expect for a guy in charge of a relatively high-profile program like Clemson. He has to prove that he wasn't a knee-jerk reaction hire--a la West Virginia's Bill Stewart--by having a better than average season this year. He doesn't have to win the ACC, mind you, but he does have the tools to finish in its upper half. If he can't do that--and he fails to beat us--expect the Tigers faithful to immediately begin to question the hire. And rightfully so, I would say; I'm still a bit surprised the Tigers didn't go after someone like Bobby Johnson. If Swinney does well, though, expect the hype machine to begin for the resurgence of Clemson football.

I'll give Steve Spurrier a slight advantage here based on experience. However, as with Lane Kiffin, it's really too early to make many judgment calls about Swinney, so take this comparison with a grain of salt.

Verdict: Slight advantage South Carolina

Overall

My sense is that these are fairly evenly matched teams. Both should have pretty good defenses and both might have OK offenses if a few things fall into place. A few decisive questions jump out at me when trying to decide which will win. First of all, the two teams share inexperience at quarterback. Whether it's Parker / Korn or Garcia that's playing well by November will be a deciding factor in how good these two teams are relative to each other when they take the field. Second of all, Dabo Swinney and his staff are largely an unknown quantity, so their progress will be important. Finally, both teams have some depth issues on defense that may be exposed by the end of the season. The team that suffers fewest injuries at low-depth positions may have an advantage there. I don't have the answers to these questions right now, so I'm just going to go with my heart (and against historical precedent) and call it a close Carolina victory. I'll go ahead and admit that this pick derives at least in part from homerism and unwillingness to pick Clemson. We obviously have a lot to prove against these guys. I do, though, think the talent gap has closed to a certain degree. We're in a place to even up this series. The only thing remaining is to actually do it.

Prediction: 28-24 Carolina victory

Poll

The Clemson game will result in a (elaborate in the comments section)...

Blowout Carolina Victory

10 votes

Close Carolina Victory

26 votes

Close Clemson Victory

18 votes

Blowout Clemson Victory

33 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

Gator Bowl: Nebraska vs Clemson - Clemson's Offense By the Numbers

Jon Johnston — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:00:06 -0000

We've done our fair share about Clemson's defense, so it's time to take a look at the Tiger offense, which means it's time for more statistics.

Passing

		Passing									Rushing
	G	Rating	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	INT	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
Willy Korn	6	119.6	26	38	68.4	216	36.0	8.3	1	1	13	19	3.2	1.0	1
Cullen Harper	12	129.3	204	323	63.2	2395	199.6	11.7	11	12	49	-110	-9.2	-2.0	2

Willy Korn has been practicing, but it's Cullen Harper that'll be making the start. Harper isn't much of a running threat, and his TD/INT ratio is pretty awful, although he didn't through an INT in his last three games. Both quarterbacks have good completion rates.

Rushing

		Rushing					Receiving
	G	Rush	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Y/G	Avg	TD
James Davis	12	159	725	60.4	4.6	11	14	123	10.2	8.8	0
C.J. Spiller	11	109	612	55.6	5.6	7	30	430	39.1	14.3	3
Jamie Harper	7	34	133	19.0	3.9	1	4	21	3.0	5.3	0
Jacoby Ford	12	17	93	7.8	5.0	0	50	598	49.8	12.0	3
Paul Macko	3	5	23	7.7	4.6	0	1	14	4.7	14.0	0
Willy Korn	6	13	19	3.2	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Marquan Jones	4	2	6	1.5	3.0	0	5	37	9.2	7.4	0
Tyler Grisham	12	1	3	0.2	3.0	0	36	366	30.5	10.2	1
Cullen Harper	12	49	-110	-9.2	-2.0	2	0	0	0	0	0

We must worry about "Thunder" and "Lightning" which are James Davis and CJ Spiller, respectively. Here's what Steve Spurrier has to say about the two:

“C.J. Spiller is a fast guy that if he gets loose nobody’s going to catch him. He got loose two years ago a couple of times in the game we won. The key is don’t let him get behind us or in the open field. James Davis is a very good inside runner also.”

Receiving

		Receiving
	G	Rec	Yds	Y/G	AVG	TD
James Davis	12	14	123	10.2	8.8	0
C.J. Spiller	11	30	430	39.1	14.3	3
Jamie Harper	7	4	21	3.0	5.3	0
Jacoby Ford	12	50	598	49.8	12.0	3
Marquan Jones	4	5	37	9.2	7.4	0
Tyler Grisham	12	36	366	30.5	10.2	1
Aaron Kelly	12	61	648	54.0	10.6	3
Michael Palmer	7	12	160	22.9	13.3	3
Xavier Dye	3	6	75	25.0	12.5	0
Durrell Barry	4	5	93	23.2	18.6	0

Clemson is going to run the ball to set up play-action.

Aaron Kelly is 6' 5", which will be a problem for our defensive backs. Jacoby Ford is a speedster, note his totals above as both a running and receiving threat. Also note Spiller's totals in both rushing and receiving.

Clemson has experience, depth, and talent in their receiving corps, although this isn't unlike anything we faced against Big 12 offenses. The key here will be making sure coverage doesn't break down - that we're consistent, something we haven't done a great job of this season.

Kicking

		Field Goals								PAT
	G	11	-29	30-39	40-49	50+	FGM	FGA	PCT	XPM	XPA	PCT	pts
Mark Buchholz	11	-	8-8	4-6	3-4	0-2	14	19	73.7%	31	31	100.0%	73

Bucholz is a pretty good kicker, consistent, although note that he hasn't hit anything beyond 49 yards.

Note that Clemson has 22 TD's on the ground, with 13 in the air. If we're going to beat Clemson, we're going to have to shut down the running game and force them to throw.

In order to do that, the defensive line is going to have to be disruptive, and our linebackers are going to need to play one of their better games of the season. It would be nice to have Cody Glenn back on the field, but at least Phillip Dillard will return.

Clemson only scored over 30 twice this season against Div IA (FBS) foes, coming against Duke and at the end of the season against hated rival South Carolina. Otherwise, their offense has been fairly anemic, finishing 62nd in scoring offense with 25.5 points per game.

If you get the idea that Nebraska should win this game if it gets into the 30s, you'd be correct. Most of the nation believes that the Big 12 offenses are only so good because our conference can't play defense. The proof will be on the field the next couple of days, but against Clemson the Huskers match up fairly well. Their offense isn't special because it's a new-fangled fancy pants no-huddle spread system, but they do have athletes and experience.

We're going to need to play our best game of the season to beat Clemson. It'll be time to see how far we've come.

TARGET FILE: at The Team from the Upstate [11.29.08]

cocknfire — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 05:23:19 -0000

This was easily the most painful game of the 2007 campaign for the Gamecocks. The Team from the Upstate rebounded from being down 21-20, converted after 3rd-and-18 and kicked a game-winning field goal as the last seconds ticked off the clock. In our house. To end any hope of a bowl and any hope of redeeming the season.

And so this is a revenge game, as entirely too many games against the Team from the Upstate have been over the years. The problem is that wanting revenge won't be enough to win the game.

OFFENSE

O-line. Two starters return from last year's squad, which already ranked 100th in the FBS by allowing 2.69 sacks a game. And the rushing offense was not as good as you think: 50th in the country, with 161.2 ypg. Good, but not great. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

Quarterback. The questioning of Cullen Harper confuses me. Sure, he had a running threat that you had to respect, and that's going to help anyone's number. But: 282-of-433, 2,991 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs. His QB rating was 140.96, good for 22nd in the country. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

Running backs. The DaviSpiller monster accounted for 2,851 all-purpose yards and 19 TDs last year. Sure, it might not be Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but it's still pretty good. And this tandem actually returns this year. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

Remind me again why we decided to play for Tommy Bowden...

Wide receivers. Aaron Kelly returns with his 88 receptions, 1,081 yards and 11 TDs. He's backed up by Tyler Grisham, 60 catches, 653 yards and 4 TDs. They're just flat deeper than South Carolina. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

DEFENSE

Defensive line. Ricky Sapp, who had 10 TFL, five of them sacks, is one of three returning starters on the front. The rushing defense was actually better, in some ways, than the rushing offense last year: 23rd in the country, 118.3 ypg. However, they are without Phillip Merling, he of the 78 tackles, 17 TFL, 7 sacks and 21 quarterback pressures. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

Linebackers. One starter returns to this squad, and the losses include leading tackler Nick Watkins, who had 118 last year, and Tramaine Billie, he of the 79 tackles, 4 TFL and seven quarterback pressures. ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

Secondary. All the starters return after a year in which the Team from the Upstate ranked 13th in pass efficiency defense, allowing a 108.31 QB rating. Last year, the Tiggers had 16 picks. ADVANTAGE: TEAM FROM THE UPSTATE

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicking -- bah! The Team from the Upstate can't kick! NAH NAH NAH!!! I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!! Actually, Mark Buchholz only hit 61.1 percent of his FG attempts. On the other hand, Jimmy Maners averaged 42.8 yards on his punts. The return game was good on kickoffs, but so-so on punts. ADVANTAGE: PUSH

COACHING

Tommy Bowden. Versus Steve Spurrier. You're kidding, right? ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA

RESULT

Again, I never pick the Team from the Upstate to win. Tradition is the only reason to make this selection. POSSIBLE WIN

THE REST OF THEIR SEASON

This is the year for the Team from the Upstate, or so we're told. If they can get past Alabama, the Tiggers are set up to open the season 5-0 before they head to Wake Forest for the de facto Atlantic Division championship game. We think. After that, the toughest remaining conference game is at Florida State. You have the creeping thought: "Dear, merciful Heaven -- they could go undefeated." Then you remember that they're coached by Tommy Bowden. 10-2

---

Thus concludes the Target File series -- finally. Upcoming: the final month of the national slate in one preview, and FIVE REASONS debuts for the 2008 season.

And then, football.

Poll

South Carolina at the Team from the Upstate will be a ...

South Carolina blowout

5 votes

Narrow South Carolina win

11 votes

Push

4 votes

Narrow Team from the Upstate win

4 votes

Team from the Upstate blowout

3 votes

27 votes | Poll has closed